The Megyn Kelly Show - Best of the Week： Media Gaslighting, State of 2024, and Walz vs. Vance Coverage

00:00:00.460 Welcome to The Megyn Kelly Show, live on Sirius XM Channel 111 every weekday at New East.

00:00:11.780 Hey everyone, I'm Megyn Kelly. Welcome to The Megyn Kelly Show and our weekend best of special.

00:00:17.440 Vice President and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris unveiled her first policy position this week.

00:00:22.680 No tax on tips. Sound familiar? It must, because former President Donald Trump came up with it.

00:00:28.780 No, we discussed that with the EJs plus the J.D. Vance media tour this week,

00:00:34.120 while the VP nominee on the Democratic side entirely avoids all media.

00:00:39.500 Nate Silver made his first appearance ever on the program.

00:00:42.760 We spoke about the state of the 2024 race and why his model, his famous model, shows Harris ahead,

00:00:49.260 but why Trump might be the better bet to win.

00:00:52.520 I also did a deep dive on the media gaslighting on various political stories,

00:00:56.180 but particularly on Tim Walsh's actual record in Minnesota,

00:00:59.940 which is far more radical than the corporate media is portraying.

00:01:03.640 And our friends from the fifth column were here.

00:01:05.560 We had some fun on a few of the big media stories of the week, as we always do with those guys.

00:01:09.300 Check it out. Have a great weekend and we'll see you Monday.

00:01:11.560 J.D. Vance is everywhere. He's everywhere. Trump held this long presser on Friday.

00:01:18.440 They're putting themselves out there. No one from the Democratic ticket is.

00:01:22.340 And here's J.D. Vance doing a pretty masterful job of trying to spin

00:01:25.520 Dana Bash's attempt to club him. I mean, how many weeks have we been on the cat story now?

00:01:30.860 Trying to club him like a harp seal and he flips it back on our watch.

00:01:34.220 What do you say to key voters like that?

00:01:37.980 Republicans, swing voters.

00:01:39.200 Sure.

00:01:39.960 Who are put off by your views.

00:01:41.460 If you look at what I said in context,

00:01:43.880 the Harris campaign has frankly lied about what I actually said.

00:01:47.560 Kamala Harris has two stepchildren.

00:01:49.800 Pete Buttigieg and his husband have adopted twins.

00:01:54.300 Do you recognize them as parents and more broadly as being part of families?

00:01:58.420 Well, of course I do. Dana has made some bizarre statements.

00:02:01.460 She has said things like, it's reasonable not to have children over climate change.

00:02:06.180 And you've now asked me three questions about comments that I made three years ago.

00:02:10.180 I wonder what Kamala Harris thinks about the fact that she supported policies 1.00

00:02:13.980 that opened the American Southern border.

00:02:15.580 I wonder what Kamala Harris thinks about the fact that she lied to the American people 1.00

00:02:18.740 But I'm interviewing you, not Kamala Harris.

00:02:19.880 about Joe Biden's middle facility for the office.

00:02:23.200 You are interviewing me, Dana, because I respect the American people enough to sit down for an interview.

00:02:27.620 I appreciate that.

00:02:28.400 Kamala Harris has been the nominee for three weeks.

00:02:30.500 She hasn't sat down for a real interview.

00:02:32.180 Believe me, we are asking.

00:02:34.380 Okay, you're asking, but then they're still going along with it.

00:02:38.080 They still, all of them cover her rallies, ride in her plane,

00:02:42.580 write about her nonstop with the joy and the all you go girl with their Madam President t-shirts on.

00:02:48.000 But truly, Eliana, the answer by these sycophant media members needs to be F off.

00:02:56.680 We will not cover you until you sit for an interview.

00:03:00.140 We are not there to do PR.

00:03:03.720 That's what's happening here.

00:03:05.440 Well, the reason that Trump and Vance are out there so much doing interviews is that the media has made it impossible for them to dominate a national news cycle until since Harris was elevated to the top of the Democratic ticket three weeks ago.

00:03:25.280 And the same thing should be happening for Harris until she sits for interviews. 1.00

00:03:30.460 It should be very, very difficult for her to dominate the news cycle simply with rallies and speeches. 1.00

00:03:38.020 But again, I don't blame her.

00:03:41.340 It is the fault of the press that's allowing her to lead the headlines and lead the front pages of newspapers with positive press every single day without sitting for interviews or taking critical questions. 0.85

00:03:52.480 But that is precisely the reason that you see Trump and Vance out there in advance.

00:03:56.820 I think actually, Megan, did a better job in that CNN interview than he did on your show responding to questions about that.

00:04:03.960 I think he after, you know, a rough week rollout has has found a more solid footing as Trump's vice presidential nominee.

00:04:11.840 I thought he did a nice job in that interview. 0.96

00:04:13.540 So what we're seeing now, though, instead of the media demanding access and even in the absence of access, just doing in-depth reporting on these insane policy positions that they have said that they hold and that in Tim Walsh's case that he has enacted as governor of Minnesota, they're doing stories on Trump allegedly calling Kamala Harris a bitch behind closed doors. 0.94

00:04:39.640 OK, his team denies it. 0.97

00:04:41.920 I couldn't care less.

00:04:42.840 Who gives a flying fig with? 1.00

00:04:46.220 I'm sure he probably did call her a bitch. 1.00

00:04:48.020 Who cares? 1.00

00:04:49.220 This is what she says about him.

00:04:50.860 Listen.

00:04:53.640 I took on perpetrators of all kinds.

00:04:56.400 Predators who abused women.

00:04:59.840 Fraudsters who ripped off consumers. 0.99

00:05:03.140 Cheaters who broke the rules for their own gain. 0.71

00:05:06.460 I know Donald Trump's type.

00:05:10.220 Why am I supposed to care, Emily? 1.00

00:05:12.840 If he, in response to being called a sexual predator fraudster criminal by her openly, behind closed doors may have said she's a bitch. 1.00

00:05:20.680 I don't know if you saw Mike Allen of Axios tweet out the story, but he put three siren emojis on top of Kamala Harris reportedly being called a bitch by Trump. 1.00

00:05:31.340 Like, this is some major piece of news. 0.95

00:05:33.600 And again, it just shows how little they understand about their own audiences. 0.99

00:05:38.360 The news consumer, the news consumer, the American public, who, for so many of them, you can tell them that Donald Trump has been calling Kamala Harris a bitch. 0.98

00:05:47.080 You could call, they could hear that he called the Statue of Liberty a bitch and they would still vote for him because they think Kamala Harris's policies are terrible. 1.00

00:05:56.120 And they're scared of the extreme policies of the left and the media doesn't. 0.69

00:06:01.840 And another reason they don't ask Kamala Harris's questions, like the one about Waltz's extreme LGBT children policy, is because they don't understand that that does also matter to voters.

00:06:11.300 They have no understanding of their audience. 0.97

00:06:12.960 So they get tied up in these ridiculous stories about Donald Trump allegedly calling Kamala Harris a bitch that does not matter to anyone, let alone doesn't matter to the degree. 0.99

00:06:24.020 No. And you know what? With the way they manipulate the narratives, they could easily be doing stories right now on how J.D. Vance, to the point Eliana just made, found his footing, how he has been media forward. 0.99

00:06:35.460 While Kamala Harris and Tim Waltz hide from the press, J.D. Vance is going out there.

00:06:39.200 We know if he were a Democrat, that is the story that they would be doing on J.D. Vance, that he is crushing it in interviews, that even though he's getting bad press, he's going and talking to journalists.

00:06:48.820 He's talking to them on the plane. He's talking to them in sit downs. He was all over the Sunday shows this week. But no, none of that. We're still talking about the cats.

00:06:55.860 Well, speaking of calling Statue of Liberty a bitch, when Bo Deedle, colorful character at Fox News, who's off and on Hannity, ran for mayor, there was some quote in his campaign where he was like, 0.98

00:07:06.700 I'm going to keep this city safe, you know, all the way up from the Bronx down to that slut in New York Harbor. 1.00

00:07:12.820 But that's so so Bo Deedle. The other thing we've gotten today is J.D. Vance pictured in a female Halloween costume like he was there saying he likes drag because like I mean, like many people, one year on Halloween in 2012, 0.98

00:07:33.060 he dressed up, I don't know what it was, but he was wearing a blonde wig and was in women's clothing.

00:07:37.360 It was a Halloween costume. And now he's supposed to be a hypocrite, hypocrite, you see, because the Republicans don't like drag in front of young children. 0.99

00:07:47.480 They did this same thing to Carrie Lake. Carrie Lake spoke out about drag being forced on little kids in public spaces and schools. 1.00

00:07:56.840 And then they were like, she had a drag queen come and perform at her birthday party. It's not the same thing. 0.99

00:08:04.560 And any rational person knows that. But I guess we're just going to go with he's like a drag queen now. 1.00

00:08:11.840 It's also so insulting to actual drag, like actual drag artists like J.D. Vance just put they would do better than that wig on.

00:08:19.260 He looks like a women's study professor. Like, that's my guess as to what this costume was.

00:08:23.140 And by the way, Eliana, didn't you go to Yale?

00:08:28.060 Yeah. Are your friends as mean as J.D. Vance's friend friends?

00:08:32.520 Because every day another one releases some private correspondence with the guy, private pictures of a party.

00:08:38.200 They seem like terrible people, by the way.

00:08:41.440 Well, he went to the law school, which is like the most radical school within Yale.

00:08:46.760 Well known for that. But the correspondence is quite interesting.

00:08:51.480 The correspondence that's gotten a lot of attention is his correspondence with a friend of his who is trans.

00:08:57.580 And at no point in the correspondence that this person has released is he disrespectful in any way.

00:09:04.740 I actually thought it reflected quite well on him.

00:09:08.760 And I wasn't quite sure what the upshot of that story was, other than he was that he was totally respectful to a friend with whom he had developed personal disagreements.

00:09:21.620 He was loving, kind, and supportive of this trans person.

00:09:26.520 The person broke up their friendship because he came out publicly and said he doesn't want these treatments for children.

00:09:32.560 And that was enough for this person to completely turn on him, try to publicly humiliate him, go to the New York Times, go to CNN, elsewhere to try to embarrass him publicly.

00:09:43.140 This person's a bad person. This person's an ass. All right. That's it. That's all there is to it. 1.00

00:09:47.700 A bad friend, as is whoever tried to embarrass J.D. Vance with a stupid Halloween costume. 1.00

00:09:52.840 I mean, it's just so absurd to try to make that a comparison. 1.00

00:09:55.680 Listen, the gyrating leather strap bondage drag performances that we're seeing in, like, the bluest of blue states in front of the young ones, 0.99

00:10:05.960 trying to make them look at some guy's naked ass with nothing but a leather strap through his crack. 0.99

00:10:11.880 That is not the same as a law student male going as some sort of a female character on Halloween. 0.99

00:10:18.620 I hate to break it to you, but that's another thing normal people understand.

00:10:23.480 It's just it's very good. Go ahead.

00:10:26.140 The New York Times quoted another friend of Vance's from law school who cited as the reason for friction in their relationship that Vance's barbs about the elites at Yale became too pointed.

00:10:40.280 And the Times actually quotes this as some kind of shot at Vance, as if any normal person would take umbrage at the fact that J.D. Vance, you know, arrived at Yale and found the place snobby and out of touch,

00:10:56.280 or that he's criticized, you know, Ivy League elite since then.

00:11:00.520 It's that genre of journalism of what your former classmate said about you is is not a strong one.

00:11:08.760 I don't know. I got to talk about empty calories. All right.

00:11:12.660 So now particularly, by the way, at a school like Yale, full of strivers who one can presume are incredibly envious of where he's ended up in life compared to them.

00:11:25.440 Yeah, I know. Well, the same thing. And I've got Tim Walsh every day criticizing him for graduating from Yale Law School and going on to work for Peter Thiel as a Silicon Valley billionaire.

00:11:34.300 He's like, oh, sure. He's working class. Sure. He went to Yale Law School. Hello. That's the American dream, Emily. Right.

00:11:40.800 To like get yourself up, improve your circumstances.

00:11:44.040 I was gonna say Minnesota's own Eliana Johnson went to Yale.

00:11:48.940 No, now she's a partisan hack elite. You're not allowed to do that because then you're not you've lost all touch with your roots.

00:11:55.360 I wish I could say it was a working class success story, you guys.

00:11:58.780 Sorry, Eliana. Not really.

00:12:00.280 You are not from Minnesota anymore.

00:12:01.760 Not really.

00:12:02.560 You have zero.

00:12:03.380 He's an elite Twin Cities kid.

00:12:05.600 That is all Tim Walsh had to do when they misstated his military credentials many, many times.

00:12:13.440 Just be honest, like Eliana just did. Just a gentle, good humored correction of the record.

00:12:19.400 We're gonna do his military thing in the next segment, so I'll just table it for now.

00:12:23.240 But I do want to get to back to Kamala.

00:12:25.380 So we don't hear from her at all. No media interviews, her stupid tarmac interview with a couple of reporters, which was 71 seconds long. 0.99

00:12:31.700 And so we glean little bits and pieces here and there on her stupid speeches, which are completely curated. 1.00

00:12:38.960 And she dropped this doozy on, was it Saturday, where she stole Trump's proposal on tips for service workers. 0.99

00:12:51.820 It was Saturday in Vegas.

00:12:53.140 All right, so first, I'm just gonna give you, I'm gonna give you what she said on Saturday in Vegas, where she slipped in a new proposal, allegedly of hers.

00:13:04.660 When I am president, we will continue our fight for working families of America.

00:13:09.980 Including to raise the minimum wage.

00:13:21.360 And eliminate taxes on tips for service and hospitality workers.

00:13:27.620 Oh.

00:13:30.120 Oh, you don't say.

00:13:31.720 So she stole that from Trump, which he tweeted out, and he was 100% right.

00:13:35.720 It was his proposal, and he made it months ago, and he explained how he came up with the idea when he spoke at the Republican National Convention.

00:13:45.180 Listen.

00:13:46.500 We're having dinner at a beautiful restaurant in the Trump building on the Strip, and it's a great building, and the waitress comes over.

00:13:54.600 How's everything going?

00:13:55.800 Really nice person.

00:13:57.100 How's everything going?

00:13:57.900 Oh, Sarah, it's so tough.

00:13:59.440 The government's after me all the time on tips, tips, tips.

00:14:02.540 I said, well, they give you cash.

00:14:04.700 Would they be able to find them?

00:14:05.700 She said, actually, and I didn't know this, she said, very little cash is given.

00:14:08.740 It's all put right on the check.

00:14:10.800 And they come in, and they take so much of our money. 0.93

00:14:12.920 It's just ridiculous.

00:14:14.180 But I said to her, let me just ask you a question.

00:14:17.140 Would you be happy if you had no tax on tips?

00:14:19.240 She said, what a great idea.

00:14:21.020 I got my information from a very smart waitress. 1.00

00:14:23.720 That's better than spending millions of dollars.

00:14:27.960 And everybody, everybody loves it.

00:14:32.540 Waitresses, and caddies, and drivers. 1.00

00:14:37.080 Now, this reminds me of the second Working Girl reference in a week on this show.

00:14:43.280 Working Girl.

00:14:44.600 When Melanie Griffith's character, who was the secretary working for Sigourney Weaver, 0.78

00:14:48.980 who then goes on some fancy vacation, breaks her leg and gets laid up,

00:14:52.340 Melanie tries to pose as her boss.

00:14:55.340 She came up with an idea while posing as the boss for this merger between Trask Industries

00:15:00.780 and this other industry.

00:15:02.680 And the guy loved it.

00:15:04.640 And she was putting together this big deal.

00:15:06.340 But then Sigourney Weaver, the boss, comes back from the broken leg.

00:15:09.820 And she steps in and tries to claim this deal as her own.

00:15:14.780 And Mr. Trask figures out that this was not Sigourney's idea.

00:15:20.760 This was the idea of the lowly secretary. 1.00

00:15:24.500 And he goes to each of them and asks in his investigation to figure out who deserves credit.

00:15:29.820 How did you come up with this idea?

00:15:33.140 And we've cut a clip.

00:15:33.820 This is Forbes.

00:15:36.020 It's just your basic article about how you were looking to expand into broadcasting, right?

00:15:40.660 Okay, now, the same day, I'll never forget this.

00:15:42.680 I'm reading page six of The Post.

00:15:44.340 And there's this item on Bobby Stein, the radio talk show guy who does all those gross jokes

00:15:48.440 about Ethiopia and the Betty Ford Center.

00:15:50.800 Well, anyway, he's hosting this charity auction that night, real blue bloods. 1.00

00:15:54.180 And won't that be funny?

00:15:55.580 Now I turn the page to Susie, who does the society stuff. 1.00

00:15:58.380 And there's this picture of your daughter.

00:15:59.780 See, a nice picture.

00:16:00.520 And she's helping to organize the charity ball.

00:16:03.500 So I started to think, Trask, radio.

00:16:06.560 Trask, radio.

00:16:08.240 And then I hooked up with Jack.

00:16:10.020 And he came on board with Metro.

00:16:12.260 And so now, here we are.

00:16:14.940 Ms. Parker, let me ask you a question.

00:16:17.980 How did you come up with the idea for Trask to buy up Metro?

00:16:22.100 How did I, uh...

00:16:24.520 Well, let's see.

00:16:27.300 Well, you know, I would have to check my files.

00:16:29.100 I can't recall exactly.

00:16:32.040 Ms. Parker is Kamala Harris.

00:16:35.420 I mean, I'm sorry, but I nailed it.

00:16:37.300 That's the perfect analogy for what we just saw. 0.92

00:16:40.500 It's ridiculous, Emily.

00:16:43.220 Also, that was encyclopedia-level knowledge of the working girl plot. 0.84

00:16:49.820 I love that movie.

00:16:51.260 Everything, the detail.

00:16:52.860 But yeah, I mean, this is another great example of media coverage.

00:16:57.860 They would be going crazy if this had happened in the other direction.

00:17:02.940 And by the way, Trump's story about how he came up with that proposal, it sounds plausible.

00:17:08.560 It sounds believable to me.

00:17:09.680 I don't know that it's true.

00:17:10.920 Just because Donald Trump says it doesn't mean that it's true.

00:17:12.820 It sounds plausible.

00:17:13.620 Either way, if he were a Democrat, one big storyline of this election would have been how he came up with that idea, because it's really brilliant.

00:17:22.680 And it's a very powerful political narrative.

00:17:25.660 And that's obviously why Kamala Harris is cribbing it. 1.00

00:17:28.980 I mean, in Nevada, this goes a very, very long way towards, you know, appealing to working class voters who are hugely supportive of Donald Trump more than they have been for other Republican candidates.

00:17:39.580 So it's really, really smart.

00:17:41.280 And the media at the time, some outlets legitimately tried to undercut it and say, ah, this is just nonsense.

00:17:47.820 It doesn't mean that much to workers.

00:17:49.380 It won't make that big of a difference.

00:17:51.300 And now Kamala Harris does it. 1.00

00:17:52.900 And people are like, wow, this is so smart.

00:17:55.160 Where did it come from?

00:17:56.280 Uh, so it's just like another perfect case study in what we've been talking about.

00:18:00.460 And the media is just total double standards. 0.99

00:18:02.820 So pathetic. 0.97

00:18:04.080 Trump tweeted out, uh, or posted on true social, uh, Kamala Harris, whose honeymoon period is ending and is starting to get hammered in the polls. 0.98

00:18:11.960 Just copied my no taxes on tips policy.

00:18:14.360 The difference is she won't do it.

00:18:16.140 She just wants it for political purposes. 1.00

00:18:18.040 This is a Trump idea.

00:18:19.440 She has no ideas.

00:18:20.660 She can only steal from me. 1.00

00:18:22.460 And Eliana, what we saw over the weekend on X was hysterical posts. 0.99

00:18:27.920 Like, um, there was this one.

00:18:29.700 Was it Curtis hook?

00:18:30.680 Oh no, he did not.

00:18:31.300 This one here's for the listening audience.

00:18:32.640 There's one guy taking a test on the left and writing Trump, no tax on tips.

00:18:36.720 And one guy copying off of that guy and labeled Kamala Harris, like in a testing situation.

00:18:41.840 And then look at this one.

00:18:43.680 They're saying this is Kamala Harris at her next rally.

00:18:46.960 It's her wearing a Trump wig.

00:18:51.160 I love this so much.

00:18:53.440 She, you know, I guess if you can't beat him, join him, but there'll be no acknowledgement, Eliana, that she completely copied Trump's homework.

00:19:01.620 Well, it's quite interesting, um, it to take a serious look at this, that this is the one specific policy proposal she's put out to date.

00:19:12.320 And it is one of Trump's policy proposals.

00:19:15.920 Not only that, but this is a proposal, as Emily mentioned, that's aimed at the working class.

00:19:20.000 And these are the voters that the Democratic Party over the past eight years has been bleeding to the GOP.

00:19:27.040 So, um, if you want to think about what Kamala Harris may try to do, and we're supposed to see more economic policies from her this week. 1.00

00:19:34.100 Um, I think that's the way to look at this.

00:19:36.780 I saw a headline on Mediaite the other day suggesting that you were displeased that 538's been, like, the forecast has been suspended.

00:19:52.260 They're now affixing a note to the top of it, uh, where it could formally be found.

00:19:56.780 The forecast saying, as of July 21st at 2 p.m. Eastern, um, President Biden has suspended his campaign for the Democratic Party, um, whatever, for president.

00:20:06.060 And I guess they, they decided to suspend the forecast, um, and you suggested, at least according to Mediaite, that this is being done for political reasons.

00:20:17.660 Can you explain that?

00:20:19.960 I don't think it's being done for political reasons as much as maybe to save them a model they don't trust, or that could be embarrassing to them in some ways.

00:20:28.320 Um, they had said back in July that their model had Biden doing substantially better than Kamala Harris.

00:20:35.180 Um, which I don't think made any sense at the time, and definitely doesn't make any sense now, given the polling.

00:20:41.360 Their model actually doesn't look very much at polling.

00:20:43.300 It relies on things like the economy and incumbency.

00:20:46.160 So, you know, I don't know why they don't have the model back on.

00:20:49.460 Um, it's one of the most fascinating periods in American political history.

00:20:53.000 I mean, the amount of attention paid to anything having to do with the horse race and politics and polls is very high right now.

00:20:59.600 So I can't speak to what's going on there, but like, I mean, there's an issue, Megan, where if you leave a brand and they get to keep the brand name, I mean, 538 was, I'm no longer associated with it, but they have the brand name.

00:21:09.540 And it's a little bit of an awkward spot if, if, if you think they're putting out a product that doesn't live up to, I mean, I'm a demanding person, but it doesn't live out up to the standards that you created.

00:21:19.780 And they have great people there.

00:21:21.020 The people I work with are still there, but they, they hired a new guy that, um, that I infuted with and thought, you know, was not someone I would have hired.

00:21:27.900 Um, and so whatever, I mean, you know, I got the model, I got my model, I got, I have myself.

00:21:33.520 And so I got the valuable things out of that relationship, but it's frustrating to have a version of a product that is not, not the product that you helped create.

00:21:41.520 That would be horrible.

00:21:42.720 That would be like me somehow losing control of the Megan Kelly show and being permitted to go off and form my own show.

00:21:48.560 But the new person could call it the Megan Kelly show.

00:21:51.180 I would hate that.

00:21:52.900 Yeah.

00:21:53.300 But do you think that there is, I mean, cause that's maybe they'll start the forecasting now that Kamala's back and it's going well for her.

00:21:59.260 I mean, because to me, it seems so obvious that they lost interest in doing that when it, when it looked like Joe Biden was doing so poorly.

00:22:05.520 Well, cause their forecasts have been the most optimistic forecast for Biden, right?

00:22:09.240 When Biden left the race, they still had it at 50, 50, which I think is, is simply wrong based both on the polling and based on kind of common sense.

00:22:18.880 Right. I mean, this is a guy who was having trouble delivering even prepared remarks and certainly anything off, off, but off a teleprompter was very difficult for, for the president.

00:22:28.360 So look, I don't know.

00:22:29.800 I mean, the guy who runs the model, I think has definitely seemed like he's more of a partisan leaning Democrat, but look, I, I, you need to separate out your rooting interest from your ability to do analysis and reporting.

00:22:40.620 Right.

00:22:41.540 Correct.

00:22:42.320 You know, I am full disclosure.

00:22:44.760 I will vote probably for Kamala Harris. 0.95

00:22:47.300 It's not going to matter.

00:22:48.000 It's in New York.

00:22:49.580 But if Trump is ahead by three points of Pennsylvania on election day, then that's what our forecasts will reflect.

00:22:54.900 And I'm not going to spin it.

00:22:55.920 And I'm not going to indulge, you know, critiques from Democrats because people say all of a sudden when we had Trump way ahead, they're like, oh, Nate is MAGA now.

00:23:03.300 Right. Nate's being funded by the right wing.

00:23:04.780 And now that, now that it's 50, 50 again, or we actually have Harris slightly ahead, then, oh, you're back in good graces.

00:23:09.880 I think people don't understand that some folks are able to separate out their journalism from, you know, I think it's fine as a citizen to have opinions about public affairs and for transparency reasons to even articulate that for context when you're going on the media appearance or, or writing about the election.

00:23:26.260 But we can decouple these things from one another.

00:23:28.580 I think it's, I think people are, are, should hold themselves to a higher standard of being able to, you know, walk and chew gum at the same time.

00:23:35.880 Yeah. I mean, it's been a while since I've taken statistics and probability, but those seem like models that one could follow irrespective of one's bias.

00:23:45.140 However, I guess there are some people who put inputs into the models that could change the outcome and they do.

00:23:51.820 It's a fine line because when you're building a model, especially for elections, you know, the other thing I do is sports and in sports, there are hundreds of NFL games played every year and thousands of baseball games.

00:24:03.240 It's easier to kind of have the data speak for itself.

00:24:06.040 For elections, we have one election every four years.

00:24:08.360 The political climate is always changing.

00:24:09.940 Conditions are different.

00:24:10.780 So you have to be more assumption driven and that requires you to think very carefully about like, you know, what are the assumptions I make if I actually had to bet my own money on this election?

00:24:21.820 That's the standard I think people should use because otherwise you get in a trap where, where your rooting interest tends to, you know, surface in all types of different ways with all these decisions that you make when you build the forecasts and, and, and how you average a polls together or what standards you have for X and Y and Z.

00:24:37.240 So, um, it's a hard problem, actually, it's, it's a difficult problem.

00:24:41.120 And, and, you know, the longevity I have having done it since 2008, it's a real asset.

00:24:46.000 Cause I, I've been, it's not my first rodeo.

00:24:50.000 So, all right.

00:24:50.920 So just to take a look at your latest probability, you've got Harris at 54.8% chance of winning the electoral college Trump at 44.7.

00:25:01.700 So not quite a 10 point difference between them, but you know, the, the race has shifted dramatically toward the Dems favor since the substitution.

00:25:11.360 Um, we went back and, you know, I know that you, you know, this, but you had predicted that Hillary had something like a 71% probability of winning in 16.

00:25:20.680 She didn't win.

00:25:21.840 So that's just as a caution for the audience that this doesn't mean that Harris is going to win.

00:25:26.140 It's, it's a probability based on an input of what all the latest polls or the polls that you trust.

00:25:32.400 Like, how do you come, how do you decide what goes into the, uh, the mix?

00:25:36.040 We, we try to be as inclusive as possible, right?

00:25:39.360 As long as it's a, it's a professional poll, professional scientific poll.

00:25:43.300 We include it regardless of the political ideology of the pollster, you know, if there are polls that are amateur polls, like someone doing it on a blog and they pay 300 bucks for a survey monkey survey, not those, but we are the most inclusive of the different sites.

00:25:57.380 Cause we believe in the wisdom of consensus and the wisdom of crowds.

00:26:01.280 Um, and there are years where some of the polls people, uh, demean as outliers wind up being right.

00:26:06.820 And so we're kind of following a, following a process there.

00:26:09.200 And to the other thing you said, I mean, look, Harris is, it's basically a coin flip.

00:26:13.480 54, 46 is not much removed from a coin flip.

00:26:16.260 Um, and you're right that in 2016, Trump won with longer odds.

00:26:21.640 He was a 29% in our model.

00:26:23.860 Now, what I would say is a poker player, gambler, sports better is that you look at where is your prediction relative to the market?

00:26:29.840 Um, the belief there, and if you wanted to bet on Trump, you could get odds of six to one on Trump.

00:26:35.240 So we said it should be actually three to one.

00:26:37.180 So if you're a gambler and you looked at our forecast, you'd say, I have a good bet on Trump because when it pays off, it'll pay off more than enough to make it for the times when, when the, you know, the favorite wins.

00:26:47.560 So from my standpoint, that was what I call a plus expected value forecast, meaning you play out the election a hundred times and you make money from it.

00:26:54.940 Um, but understandably, you know, not many people before have come from this poker playing background into becoming this prominent election forecaster.

00:27:02.400 So understandably, I know why kind of like the conventional media is not going to get that and that's okay.

00:27:07.580 It's a hazard of doing the job, but I do want to emphasize that the uncertainty is there for a reason.

00:27:12.880 The polls can be off.

00:27:14.340 They were off in both 2016 and 2020, 2020.

00:27:17.380 Biden had a big enough lead in the polls that he held on, but like they were off by four or five points again in states like Wisconsin.

00:27:24.460 Hmm. So what, I mean, there, of course, at this point in the race, there are many Republicans who are starting to get very worried, right?

00:27:34.340 Because Trump looks so much better four weeks ago than he does today.

00:27:37.280 We had the New York Times Siena poll that came out yesterday showing, uh, Harris over Trump by four points in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, the must win Pennsylvania.

00:27:48.060 Uh, we had Cook Political Report moving three states in the Sun Belt from lean R to toss up, including Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, which Trump had been looking really good in Nevada, which is not historically blue, but he, sorry, red, but, uh, he'd been looking really good there.

00:28:06.080 So a lot of Republicans are starting to get very nervous with these polls coming in.

00:28:11.180 You've got Trafalgar, which is historically, I guess, more friendly toward, uh, Republican voters.

00:28:18.780 They understand them a little bit better.

00:28:20.120 I think the way he polls is very interesting.

00:28:21.940 He's got likely voters, uh, at least in Pennsylvania today, Trump up to all within the margin of error.

00:28:28.160 So how do we make sense of today's polling on this race?

00:28:31.900 I mean, that's kind of exactly what a polling average is designed for, where it includes the New York Times, and it includes the Trafalgar's.

00:28:39.220 Um, I don't mean to totally compare them.

00:28:40.940 I mean, we have pollster ratings based on the historical accuracy and, and, you know, Trafalgar has had great years and not so great years, for example.

00:28:47.620 Um, look, there's a pretty clear consensus that Kamala Harris is ahead in most national polls right now by an average of two or three points.

00:28:56.580 Um, national polls, however, do not determine the election because the popular vote doesn't determine the election.

00:29:02.280 In Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, she's ahead by a point, maybe two points, but that's really within the margin of error of the polls, right?

00:29:10.780 If you had the election today, which would be a little bit weird, but if, if you had the election today and Trump won Wisconsin, that would be not surprising in the least, right?

00:29:19.280 I mean, I think you'd take Harris at 50-50 odds, but it's, it's very close.

00:29:24.000 And the fact that, look, one way to look at it is that we've had three straight close elections with Trump.

00:29:29.700 One where he came out a little bit ahead, one where he came out a little bit behind, um, and Harris is like a league average Democratic candidate, right?

00:29:38.780 I mean, you know, Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by two points.

00:29:41.380 I frankly think Kamala Harris is a better candidate than Hillary Clinton. 0.99

00:29:44.660 So if she wins by three points, the popular vote, then you have a close electoral college raise where I think she might be the slightest favorite, um, but would be very competitive.

00:29:54.140 Hmm.

00:29:54.900 Okay.

00:29:55.420 So to those despairing on the right, it's too soon for that.

00:29:59.700 To those celebrating on the left, same message.

00:30:02.720 No, look, I, um, I think both parties have, look, Democrats went from a terrible position.

00:30:09.640 I mean, Biden was way behind and I think if anything, our model overrated Biden's chances, because he was not able to do the normal things that a candidate does.

00:30:17.140 His fundraising was drying up.

00:30:18.380 He had another debate to survive.

00:30:20.960 Um, so, you know, I thought Biden's chances might've only been 10% or something.

00:30:24.380 And now it's 50-50 or 54 or 55.

00:30:27.340 I mean, that, that feels great when you're a poker player and you're down to your last few chips and all of a sudden you're a real player in the game.

00:30:34.300 Um, um, but like Democrats are maybe getting a little bit carried away here.

00:30:39.900 Um, Kamala Harris is going to have her convention next week.

00:30:42.940 And typically that produces a further boost in the polling.

00:30:45.900 So I think August will remain a rough month for the GOP.

00:30:50.240 Um, but September, she will face a different type of pressure.

00:30:53.860 The pressure being a perceived front runner, potentially.

00:30:58.100 Um, that can be more difficult.

00:31:00.200 I mean, being an underdog is a powerful kind of constituents or powerful meme.

00:31:04.300 In American politics, it's a sympathetic situation.

00:31:06.800 And, and in some ways, in some ways it's a great story, right?

00:31:09.840 I mean, she takes over this old guy and performs way better than people thought, um, rises in the polls, could become the first woman president. 1.00

00:31:16.880 It's understanding, understandable why voters and certainly the media find this story compelling, but, but usually there are twists once you get after Labor Day and having this debate, September 10th, which by the way, is still pretty early for a debate.

00:31:29.460 Um, that's the most obvious fork in the road for a momentum swing.

00:31:32.860 Mm-hmm.

00:31:34.480 Have you been able, Nate, when you've been watching the media, I mean, it's been such a whiplash, right, of them eventually deciding Biden had to go, okay, we're going to do our shoe leather reporting.

00:31:46.140 Let's get to the bottom of this.

00:31:47.360 We're suddenly interested in all of his fails and stumbles.

00:31:50.640 And then as soon as she got anointed, it was like, not interested anymore, forgot all our shoe leather problems.

00:31:58.300 Let's just let her, let's let her coast and be her PR agents on the back of the plane and back of the bus and not insist on interviews, et cetera. 1.00

00:32:04.420 Yeah, look, I think the Biden story should have been covered first and foremost as a governance story.

00:32:11.840 It's the hardest job in the world.

00:32:14.560 You know, how much uptime does Biden have seems like a valid question.

00:32:18.420 And by the way, I think these questions can be asked of Trump, too.

00:32:21.260 I think, I think candidates should be more transparent about their medical records and their mental health and things like that as well.

00:32:26.840 And people should have the right to ask questions.

00:32:28.320 But yeah, it's, it's not a great look that once the force race aspect of the story was resolved, that, that the story faded from the headlines so quickly.

00:32:37.820 Because it's about, you know, if there's a 3 a.m. phone call from, from North Korea, then do you have the best person in office to take that job?

00:32:45.460 And, and I don't know, I mean, I, I, you know, the fact that Biden's been cagey about his diagnosis, if he has one, it's not been, it's not been a great look.

00:32:54.340 And it's a sign of how, I mean, what's weird about me is like, you know, I'm someone who is kind of in the liberal media establishment, but also critical of it at times.

00:33:03.820 And I think in election years in particular, you sometimes see behavior that's more, more strategic, I guess I'd say.

00:33:10.800 Hmm, my gosh.

00:33:11.880 I mean, that's such a sweet interpretation of it.

00:33:14.500 But well, I mean, I'm corrupt if you ask me, but that's me.

00:33:17.960 But on your point about Joe Biden, Tom Bevan over at RealClearPolitics actually went and pulled the president's schedule just to see what he's actually doing, what Joe Biden's actually doing.

00:33:27.180 This is last week.

00:33:27.860 He posted this on August 8th and he wrote his schedule this week is truly absurd.

00:33:32.480 One phone call on Monday, nothing on Tuesday, nothing on Wednesday.

00:33:38.620 One phone call and a ceremony on Thursday and then off to the beach house.

00:33:44.800 He adds any employee or CEO who did this would be fired.

00:33:48.660 Biden is the leader of the free world working 10 hours a week.

00:33:51.840 And our media couldn't care less.

00:33:55.460 They want him to coast, I guess.

00:33:57.260 They feel like he deserves it because he stepped down.

00:34:00.180 So it's like out of respect, even though we have two wars going, the Middle East and Ukraine, and we may be seeing an expansion of one or both.

00:34:07.100 Yeah, look, there are various things.

00:34:09.920 There's like the old Goldwater rule about not wanting to diagnose a candidate's physical or mental health from afar.

00:34:16.400 But look, you know, audience capture is a thing, too.

00:34:19.860 And even the more highbrow, you know, center-left outlets will publish more stories that get more page views and get more traction.

00:34:27.840 Those are generally stories that have good news for their democratic-leaning audience, right?

00:34:32.900 So just organically that can sometimes emerge.

00:34:35.660 I mean, I've worked for The New York Times, and I don't think they kind of consciously go out and say, let's cater to the left today.

00:34:41.740 But I think their readership leans that way.

00:34:43.960 And so you have, you know, that's reflected in the coverage a little bit.

00:34:48.300 Yeah, and so are the reporters, which has an effect.

00:34:50.860 Yeah, and look, the fact that-

00:34:52.080 Roger Ailes used to say that.

00:34:53.080 You know, Roger, I was just going to say at Fox, Roger understood that when you hire young journalists, they're going to be left-leaning.

00:34:58.780 Like young people tend to be left-leaning, certainly young people out of journalism school.

00:35:02.200 And he understood that you weren't not hired at Fox because you were a left-leaning person.

00:35:07.080 You just got the talk about that's not what we do here.

00:35:10.820 If you want to just write left-leaning things for left-leaning readers, go someplace else.

00:35:14.760 If you actually want to do fair and balanced news, which is, you know, Brit Hume used to call it like pick money up off the street.

00:35:19.920 It's just like the whole lane of stories not told, not touched in a fair way.

00:35:23.800 Then you can work here.

00:35:24.860 But I don't think that reporters at the New York Times get that speech.

00:35:29.140 Yeah, I don't know.

00:35:29.800 Again, I am a little conflicted out here.

00:35:31.500 I freelance for the New York Times, so I don't want to speak, you know, and you should account for that conflict.

00:35:35.560 Look, I think the issue is that it's kind of the pipeline issue where the Times is hiring from lots of elite colleges and universities, young people from elite colleges and universities.

00:35:45.460 And, you know, they're very bright people.

00:35:47.180 I mean, they get the best and brightest people in their class, but people coming out of those elite institutions are progressive Democrats.

00:35:55.140 And, look, there are more journalists than you might expect, Megan.

00:35:58.700 I mean, I'd push back.

00:35:59.440 There are a lot of journalists who care about the truth and are able to separate out their rooting interest from their journalism.

00:36:05.700 I mean, I think the majority even, maybe even the supermajority.

00:36:09.480 Oh, please, who's coming to mind?

00:36:11.440 I'm not going to name names.

00:36:12.840 I mean, look.

00:36:13.500 No, because there aren't.

00:36:14.420 It's not that people are big celebrities.

00:36:14.960 The majority, that's insane, Nate.

00:36:17.360 That's insane.

00:36:18.040 I'm not going to deny there are some, but the majority, absolutely not.

00:36:21.340 Look at the news coverage.

00:36:22.160 I mean, look at the news coverage.

00:36:23.120 Did you see the headlines today after that Elon Trump thing last night?

00:36:25.480 The media knew exactly what to do. 0.98

00:36:27.080 It sucked. 1.00

00:36:27.840 He sucked. 1.00

00:36:28.760 Elon sucks. 1.00

00:36:29.840 All our concerns about being kind toward people with special learning and so on, out the window when it's Elon Musk, who everybody knows is on the spectrum. 0.99

00:36:38.780 No, we can make fun of him.

00:36:40.100 It's like, this is just today's example, but we'd be here all week.

00:36:45.220 It's definitely not the majority.

00:36:46.500 I hear we have a difference of opinion.

00:36:48.140 Go ahead.

00:36:49.940 Look, I mean, I worked in these spaces as well, and I think there are a lot of good people there.

00:36:54.800 I think sometimes the people who care more about the journalistic standards are reluctant to speak up to younger colleagues who want to take the newsroom in a more progressive direction.

00:37:05.400 And you have a lot of internal battles.

00:37:07.580 You know, one thing about the Times is that, you know, at the Times, the kind of more traditionalists actually said, hey, if you want to turn this into like a progressive newspaper, then this is not the place for you exactly.

00:37:17.180 And they've shifted a lot from kind of the peak of 2020, peak wokeness or whatever you want to call it.

00:37:23.720 I read so much stuff and, you know, and I might not say that about outlets X, Y, and Z.

00:37:28.140 I don't want to make enemies now, but there are outlets that I wouldn't say that about.

00:37:31.920 Yeah.

00:37:33.000 I said it.

00:37:34.340 Yeah.

00:37:34.720 There's plenty more.

00:37:35.180 I want to play this because you said it's not considered appropriate to diagnose from afar in the context of Joe Biden.

00:37:42.580 President Trump did not get that memo.

00:37:44.400 He feels perfectly comfortable doing it.

00:37:46.360 And here is a little bit from his discussion with Elon last night.

00:37:51.220 Now, Biden's, you know, close to vegetable stage, in my opinion.

00:37:56.660 OK, I looked at him today on the beach and I said, why would anybody allow him?

00:38:01.960 The guy could barely walk.

00:38:03.260 Why would anybody allow him?

00:38:05.600 Does he have a political advisor that thinks this looks good?

00:38:08.720 You know, he can't lift the chair.

00:38:10.020 The chair weighs about three ounces.

00:38:11.620 It's meant for children and old people to lift. 1.00

00:38:14.900 And he can't lift it.

00:38:16.800 The whole thing is crazy.

00:38:18.080 Well, it's clearly, I mean, it's clearly like we just don't have a president.

00:38:21.660 You don't have a president.

00:38:22.860 And she's going to be worse than him because she is a San Francisco liberal who destroyed San Francisco. 1.00

00:38:30.400 And then as the attorney general, she destroyed California. 1.00

00:38:34.620 OK, so he's getting a little bit more on message there at the end.

00:38:39.120 But Nate, do you think and I realize you're more in the statistics and probability game, but do you think there's a chance they actually might sub out Biden before November so she could run as an incumbent?

00:38:51.540 I mean, I don't know that we can connote an advantage to her.

00:38:57.000 It would certainly make her campaigning schedule more difficult. 0.66

00:38:59.240 But I do think there's a chance just because if you look at, look, I spent a lot of time looking at curves, right?

00:39:04.900 Curves for how baseball players are going to do or how the polls are trending.

00:39:08.460 And the trajectory for Biden is, you know, seems to be pretty negative.

00:39:13.420 That instead of an occasional senior moment, that that's kind of like the norm now.

00:39:17.860 And we also know if you look at actuarial tables or if you just had older relatives that once you kind of hit the late 70s, early 80s, that you often hit an inflection point where someone goes from having good days most of the time to bad days most of the time.

00:39:35.300 And so, yeah, I mean, the fact that he wanted to be president for another four years, if you extend out that curve, I mean, that was, you know, kind of an untenable ask of voters.

00:39:45.120 It's the main reason that he was losing. But it's a perfectly logical question to ask.

00:39:49.800 You know, why not just step aside now?

00:39:52.540 I think that's perfectly logical. And the media should ask that question more.

00:40:00.320 We were gaslit on President Joe Biden's mental acuity for years.

00:40:04.100 As recently as March, we had MSNBC telling us this was the best Joe Biden ever, most cognitively fit, better than ever.

00:40:12.060 And then they were exposed at that debate. But the lie was never acknowledged.

00:40:16.800 They just moved on. Same for Vice President Kamala Harris. 1.00

00:40:21.300 She defended the president as totally fine, mentally robust even for years, never came clean, just quietly subbed in for him.

00:40:29.700 And three weeks later, hasn't said one word about any of it.

00:40:35.400 The same media is now telling us Harris is suddenly a wordsmith, someone who speaks with merry conviction, has social warmth.

00:40:46.800 And that was from The Wall Street Journal. Imagine what the left is saying about her and is tougher. 0.99

00:40:52.540 She's tougher than the guy who just got shot in the face and rose up with a fist pump.

00:40:57.780 The same media is telling us that those two Olympic boxers who won gold medals this weekend did not test X, Y and are, in fact, female.

00:41:09.980 But they did test X, Y and they are male.

00:41:13.640 The International Boxing Association is on record through its doctor saying as much.

00:41:17.380 And now we've had the former NBC and L.A. Times reporter, Alan Abramson, come forward and verify earlier reports that he personally saw the test results and they showed male.

00:41:29.320 Similarly, Amin Khalif, the one boxer from Algeria, her trainer, his trainer, has revealed, reports Redux Mag, that a French hospital found a problem with Khalif's chromosomes and that Khalif was well aware he, quote, might not be a girl.

00:41:44.940 Well, this, as a commissioner of the Spanish Boxing League, comes forward to reveal that Khalif was considered too dangerous for women to fight in Spain, saying, quote, whoever we put Khalif with was injured, end quote, and that they had to pair Khalif with one of Spain's top male boxers before finding an even match for Khalif. 0.95

00:42:06.420 Even the IOC, which had been maintaining that these two boxers were female based on their passport identifications as female, appeared to give up the game this weekend, saying, quote,

00:42:19.520 It is not as easy as some may now want to portray it that the XX or the XY is the clear distinction between the men and the women.

00:42:28.700 This is scientifically not true anymore, and therefore, these two are women. 1.00

00:42:36.300 They're not.

00:42:37.780 You got XY, you're male. 0.96

00:42:39.740 And these two have XY, according to more sources now than I can count. 0.99

00:42:45.000 And a woman is going to get killed if we keep allowing this. 0.99

00:42:50.140 The same media is telling us that Governor Tim Walz did not quit the National Guard in order to avoid going to Iraq,

00:42:56.660 that he filed his paperwork to quit the Guard before he got any notice that he was being deployed.

00:43:04.200 That's not true either.

00:43:06.060 We know for a fact that Mr. Walz was told he would be getting deployed in March of 2005.

00:43:12.220 There was a notice saying it's coming.

00:43:14.180 And his office publicly circulated that notice at the time.

00:43:17.640 We've seen it.

00:43:18.220 But a commander from his unit told CNN over the weekend that it actually was earlier than that,

00:43:23.720 that Mr. Walz and the unit knew the commanders well before Walz filed any papers to run for Congress

00:43:29.640 that they were going out.

00:43:32.300 They were about to get deployed and that that notice came as early as the fall of 2004.

00:43:36.700 In any event, Walz did not quit the Guard until May 2005.

00:43:40.680 That was three months after the written notice that he'd likely be going.

00:43:45.120 And it's true that while the final official deployment notice didn't come until July,

00:43:49.320 Walz knew well before July that he was likely going to Iraq with his unit.

00:43:53.140 And there's no question that he quit anyway.

00:43:56.240 Everything else is revisionist history.

00:43:58.780 All right.

00:43:59.840 He quit knowing they were about to be deployed.

00:44:04.460 That is a fact.

00:44:05.900 The same media telling us that he made a mistake when he exaggerated his rank in the National

00:44:13.200 Guard repeatedly, something he continues to do, that he misspoke when he claimed he served

00:44:19.960 in war, which he didn't, that he misspoke again when he said or allowed others to say

00:44:26.260 that he served in Operation Enduring Freedom, meaning the war in Afghanistan, which he didn't.

00:44:31.060 He misspeaks a lot and always in one direction.

00:44:35.900 This same dishonest partisan hack media is telling us that Governor Walz did not make

00:44:40.800 Minnesota a refuge for kids with gender confusion, that he did not sign a law allowing young children

00:44:46.540 to come to Minnesota, fleeing their parents who do not wish for them to cut off their healthy

00:44:53.240 genitals, that he did not allow courts to take custody of these young, confused children

00:44:59.360 and allow minors to sterilize and mutilate themselves away from their loving parents. 0.54

00:45:05.720 But he did.

00:45:06.820 He did exactly that.

00:45:10.500 And finally, they're telling us that Tim Walz did not sign a law mandating tampons in all

00:45:15.780 grades four through 12 bathrooms, including the boys bathrooms, except he did.

00:45:21.940 And there's no doubt about it.

00:45:24.280 A woman named Jill Berkham with the Minneapolis Star Tribune, a hack paper dedicated to helping

00:45:30.440 Democrats, wrote a piece over the weekend trying to argue that because the law has not yet been

00:45:35.480 followed in one large school district in Minnesota, instead, they're putting tampons only in their

00:45:41.780 gender neutral and their girls rooms, that the law must not include the mandate it says it does.

00:45:49.280 I have news for you, Jill.

00:45:51.020 The fact that a district is ignoring the law does not invalidate the law itself.

00:45:56.120 And if a trans student sued that school district tomorrow for noncompliance, they'd win. 1.00

00:46:02.320 The law says tampons must be made available to menstruating students in all bathrooms used by

00:46:10.080 kids in grades four through 12. Republicans tried to amend the bill to limit the language to only

00:46:18.140 girls bathrooms. That amendment was defeated. The sponsor of the law said, quote, trans boys,

00:46:27.880 meaning girls pretending to be boys, need tampons too, and therefore sanitary products must be placed 1.00

00:46:35.300 in the boys' rooms. So the products must be available to all menstruating students. I think there was some 0.99

00:46:42.360 discussion earlier about boys' bathrooms. Would that allow a school district, at least now, especially in the

00:46:49.140 elementary age, to not have to put these products into the boys' bathroom?

00:46:56.080 The school requires that schools provide free period products in all student bathrooms, grades four through 12. 0.92

00:47:01.040 Trans boys menstruate. And they use boys' bathrooms and would need these products. 1.00

00:47:09.760 In order to ensure that all menstruating students have full access to period products,

00:47:15.800 it is important that we include them in all bathrooms where trans students who menstruate may need to access them.

00:47:21.720 Okay. That woman won the argument. And now the law is perfectly clear.

00:47:30.280 The mandate is unambiguous. And while Jill points to a clause that says a plan must be developed by the school

00:47:36.560 district for the implementation of the law, that does not allow the law to be ignored. Jill, let me give you a

00:47:42.960 little legal lesson. That's not how laws work. You don't say here's a mandate, but then you can totally ignore the

00:47:48.280 mandate if you want to ignore the mandate. Implementation speaks to how the law will be

00:47:53.040 complied with. For example, what amount of tampons to put in the boys' rooms versus the girls' rooms.

00:48:00.140 This was specifically debated as the law was under consideration with an understanding that the boys' rooms

00:48:05.500 could have fewer supplies. But whether to comply with the mandate is not up for debate. It's a law.

00:48:12.020 Tampons to any menstruating student in all bathrooms, four through 12. And Minnesota believes 0.81

00:48:17.740 trans boys menstruate. That they use boys' bathrooms and those bathrooms must stock up on Tampax. 1.00

00:48:26.420 By the way, so offended was Star Tribune reporter Jill Berkham with my reporting that she encouraged

00:48:31.680 yours truly to try doing some journalism. I guess to come up with a misleading, legally misguided report

00:48:37.920 just like hers. Maybe I'll do that, Jill, and become a reporter just like you, who no one has

00:48:44.180 ever heard of doing partisan hack journalism for a dishonest paper that has endorsed nothing but

00:48:48.120 Democratic presidential candidates for the last 40 years. To be clear, you needn't even be a reporter

00:48:54.940 to figure out how this law works. Being able to read and understand a statute is sufficient.

00:49:02.880 Maybe Jill can't do that because she's not an attorney, but I can, and the law is clear.

00:49:07.260 It's a mandate. As for Jill and her stellar journalism advice, I think I'm going to pass.

00:49:14.420 We decided to pull some of Jill's very journalism-y musings for the Star Tribune editorial board on

00:49:20.420 which she sits. And I got to say, I'm slightly doubtful about Jill's objectivity. Just a few

00:49:26.620 examples. She and her board urged Trump to quit the presidential race back in 2016. Lamented the

00:49:33.760 overwhelmingly white jury in the Kyle Rittenhouse case, which involved a white man shooting other

00:49:39.460 white men who attacked him, applauded the Trump farce fraud verdict handed down by Judge Engeron,

00:49:45.980 suggesting the Trumps have no conscience and that voters in November should be guided by Judge

00:49:50.620 Engeron's use of the term pathological when it comes to Trump. She and her pals called Trump a

00:49:56.960 disgrace after the business records case conviction celebrated the label of convicted felon and

00:50:03.680 chastised voters who still plan to vote for Trump. See, Jill knows better. In the COVID madness, Jill and

00:50:10.600 her colleagues defended mask mandates, begged for booster shots. And as recently as 2022, Jill

00:50:17.800 personally expressed a vague hope that maybe someday this is 2022 someday quote with vigilance COVID-19 will

00:50:28.140 be more manageable, but for the time being encouraged vaccinating, boosting, masking up again, switching

00:50:34.920 over to remote work, putting other mitigation measures back in place. She and her paper backed DEI

00:50:41.640 in Minnesota schools, naturally. Such an objective journalist doing so much journalism-ing. As soon

00:50:48.500 as Waltz was picked by Harris, Jill and her bored buds celebrated the choice, writing, Waltz makes the

00:50:53.420 ticket. Good. Then Jill personally tweeted a link to the Harris campaign's lies about Trump supposedly

00:51:00.600 blessing Tim Waltz's handling of the Minneapolis riots, commenting, well then, Jill, what happened to the

00:51:09.280 journalism? That was a fake news report. Or were you too busy trying to find a school district blowing off the

00:51:15.680 tampon mandate to do some real reporting on what happened in your own state? On August 6th, she tweeted this

00:51:25.380 about Waltz's first campaign speech. Oh, Waltz went there with the couch reference. So fun and what a moment to

00:51:33.400 celebrate and circulate, Jill. Tim Waltz, for whom it appears lying is a signature move, lies again. But

00:51:41.320 it's so fun because it makes J.D. Vance look bad. Did you journalism there, Jill? Did you report that this

00:51:48.560 was a disgusting smear? You know, like you did on all the Tim Walz stuff that was actually true? Didn't see

00:51:55.340 it. Maybe it's still coming. I'll wait. The point here is not to pick on some sad little lady whose 0.68

00:52:01.660 Democrat dreams may be endangered by her hero, Tim Waltz's far left policies. The point is Jill and

00:52:07.680 her paper and this disgusting, enabling, lying, partisan hack media are gaslighting us all on so 0.96

00:52:15.920 many important issues. And there is no choice for those of us who can still report truthfully, 0.93

00:52:23.560 who, one, are able to do that, capable of doing that, and two, have the platforms to do so

00:52:30.320 that we must, that we must do so all the time, no matter what.

00:52:53.560 Featuring lots of hosts you may know and probably love, great people like Dr. Laura,

00:52:59.380 Glenn Beck, Nancy Grace, Dave Ramsey, and yours truly, Megyn Kelly. You can stream The Megyn

00:53:05.580 Kelly Show on SiriusXM at home or anywhere you are, no car required. I do it all the time. I love the

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00:53:23.180 Go to SiriusXM.com slash MKShow to subscribe and get three months free. That's SiriusXM.com

00:53:31.040 slash MKShow and get three months free. Offer details apply.

00:53:40.680 This is another funny moment, which the press is totally misunderstanding. It was from his exchange

00:53:46.080 with Elon the other night, and he's making a remark about that ridiculous Time Magazine cover

00:53:52.000 showing Kamala Harris like- Oh, God. Yeah.

00:53:55.840 Like Joan of Arc up there. I mean, it was ridiculous, the depiction of her.

00:54:00.100 And here's what Trump said, and then I'll play you the media reaction. Listen. 0.84

00:54:04.400 But she's getting a free ride. I saw a picture of her on Time Magazine today. She looks like the most 0.97

00:54:09.840 beautiful actress ever to live. It was a drawing. And actually, she looked very much like a great

00:54:17.200 first lady, Melania. She didn't look like Camilla. That's right. But of course, she's a beautiful

00:54:24.240 woman. So we'll leave it at that, right? Since when does he sound like Buddy Hackett?

00:54:30.080 Yeah. There was a problem with the audio. Then they released the original audio because he was

00:54:34.840 saying something and it was better. But listen. Okay. My take on that exchange, he's obviously

00:54:41.200 suggesting Kamala Harris is not attractive, but was made to look attractive by this sketch artist

00:54:48.300 who put her on the cover of Tom. He's like, they made her look like Melania for the love of God.

00:54:53.500 And he's like, right? That's what he's saying. And then listen to how the media reacts. I think this

00:54:59.260 is Julie Roginski on CNN. This is the same kind of misogyny we talked about before, right? She's 1.00

00:55:06.040 dumb. She's terrible, but she's hot. In other words, what he's saying. So I guess she's going to 1.00

00:55:11.960 get a free ride because she's hot, right? Because women who are hot in his words and his terms get a 1.00

00:55:17.200 free ride. I mean, this is a woman who's a former prosecutor. She's a former attorney general. 1.00

00:55:20.900 She's a former senator. She's a sitting vice president. She's accomplished. You may not agree with

00:55:25.340 her. You may not think that her policies are the right policies, but she's accomplished.

00:55:29.260 And yet he's reducing her down to her looks and basically saying that she's dumb. She's not so 0.97

00:55:35.540 smart. But because she's a good looking woman, kind of like my wife Melania, she's going to get 1.00

00:55:40.680 a free ride from the media. Oh my God. I like Julie. Julie's usually pretty smart and she, wow, 0.99

00:55:47.560 whiffed badly on that one. That's so wrong. Right? Talk about, that's how little they understand this

00:55:54.860 guy. In no universe does Donald Trump think Kamala Harris is hot. It's going to get a pass. 1.00

00:56:00.720 No, he's clearly saying that this is Time Magazine's kind of visual hagiography and they

00:56:07.200 made her look like Melania, who's really hot. And that's not what she looks like. 1.00

00:56:11.700 Did you imagine Donald Trump's using the phrase visual hagiography?

00:56:14.900 I just was. Yes. He said that. I said, sir, that's not what she looks like. She's not 0.99

00:56:23.240 Melania. Bless her heart. Yeah. That's an insane reaction. Yeah. Yeah. I know. But this 1.00

00:56:30.400 is, you know, of course, again, what Trump is up against. And I don't know the solution

00:56:34.020 other than message discipline. On the subject of the media, I got a couple of other for you

00:56:38.900 guys. You've probably seen the viral Caitlin Collins clip on Stephen Colbert. She is on CNN.

00:56:46.660 She goes over, you know, to get the lovely treatment from Stephen Colbert on how amazing

00:56:52.780 she is and how amazing CNN is. And the left wing New York City audience brought some truth

00:57:01.400 to the matter. Watch. Trump has kind of been thrown on his heels by this and he's not really

00:57:06.780 sure how to go after Vice President Harris. He knew his attack lines on President Biden.

00:57:12.560 He really has struggled with how to how to go after someone who's 20 years younger than

00:57:16.720 him, who is a different gender, a different race. It's kind of been this moment where he

00:57:22.200 has not been able to coalesce around a single attack line. I know you guys are objective over

00:57:27.640 there that you just report the news as it is. Oh, I know. CNN makes it. I know that's supposed

00:57:33.060 to be a laugh line. I wasn't supposed to, but I guess it is.

00:57:40.340 That hurts. Unbelievable. How humiliating and good for that audience. They knew that was a farce.

00:57:49.360 What is the number of trust in the mainstream media? Something 17 percent, some vanishingly

00:57:55.480 small number. I think it might be lower. So I think that the audience, even in New York City,

00:58:00.720 knows that that's ridiculous. I mean, it is. Stephen Colbert is a great example of this, 0.96

00:58:06.000 right? I mean, a comedian. If you go back and look at the late night shows of the Leno,

00:58:12.420 Conan O'Brien, Letterman era, you would have occasional political jokes. They never turned

00:58:17.800 into cheerleading for one political candidate or one side, which is what it's made it so boring.

00:58:23.720 I mean, you look at the ratings they have, which are low. Stephen Colbert, I mean, everyone remembers

00:58:28.140 the unbelievably embarrassing vaccine dance. Do you remember this? Oh, yeah.

00:58:33.420 With all the shots on stage dancing around. I mean, it's like, what is happening? It's like North

00:58:39.040 Korean television, but less funny. That was great. I've literally encountered like clips of him on

00:58:45.640 The Daily Show, just old Daily Show segments back from its glory days. And there were so many times

00:58:51.000 where they were lampooning the left and lampooning the right, even with Kamala Harris, quite frankly,

00:58:55.980 up until somewhat recently was not so surprising to see them lampooning her. But that sort of thing

00:59:04.300 in a moment like this seems far less likely to happen. Oh, gosh, never. I mean, look, who who were

00:59:11.880 the faces of CNN over the Trump era? Jeff Zucker was running it. We all know about him. He's ruined

00:59:18.600 CNN. Chris Cuomo. OK, that didn't end well. He's obviously a Democrat partisan masquerading

00:59:25.380 as a journalist, just like Stephanopoulos and Don Lemon. Now, Don Lemon ultimately got forced out

00:59:30.760 because he made one too many stupid, sexist comments. And so they turf the guy. But I'll just 1.00

00:59:36.020 give you a little sample of Don Lemon and how he's covering the news these days. The guy who was the

00:59:40.760 face of CNN for all these years. Take a listen. We meandered over to his podcast. We're the one.

00:59:45.320 And we found the following in-depth discussion. I think you're right. Is it because people are

00:59:51.640 like, oh, you know how the kids say the kids call it being sus? Right. Oh, well, he sucks or

00:59:57.160 whatever. Do you think it's fair to be questioning J.D. Vance's sexuality or because, you know, 1.00

01:00:02.620 they say thou doth protest too much. I'm just one. I'm not saying that he is or he isn't. Some

01:00:07.260 people are like, you know, I have great gaydar and blah, blah, blah, blah. I don't know.

01:00:11.460 What do you think, Alejandra? What? I think I'm sorry. No worries. I think with some of my

01:00:18.420 friends in the group chat that were like kind of being like egg vibes, question mark, which like

01:00:24.340 for folks out of the trans community, like egg means like someone who hasn't come out as trans

01:00:28.740 yet, but gives off like a lot of vibes like they're trans. Listen, one of my friends who is trans is in

01:00:35.480 the chats. In these here chats is Flame Monroe. Flame, let me know what you think in the chat. That's what I

01:00:40.660 want to know. I want to know what you think about all of this. Do you think it's just fun? What do

01:00:44.140 you think? Because I hear people, you know, I see people are putting up the egg emoji or what have

01:00:49.320 you. Remember when he thought the plane, like it maybe disappeared into the Bermuda Triangle or

01:00:58.940 UFO? Is it? Is it? Is that crazy? Is it a UFO? That's giving off the same vibe just to be there,

01:01:05.040 Doc. How much was he making? Just asking if J.D. Vance is gay or trans. I'm just asking. That's all.

01:01:10.420 Just asking. Yeah. Is it sure to ask? Because I don't know. He's got a good, great date on.

01:01:16.980 Thanks for listening to The Megyn Kelly Show. No BS, no agenda, and no fear.

The Megyn Kelly Show - August 17, 2024

Best of the Week： Media Gaslighting, State of 2024, and Walz vs. Vance Coverage

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