The Megyn Kelly Show - Biden's Ridiculous Recession Spin, and Pelosi's Taiwan Trip, with Peter Schiff and Jim Geraghty

00:00:00.440 Welcome to The Megyn Kelly Show, your home for open, honest, and provocative conversations.

00:00:11.260 Hey everyone, I'm Megyn Kelly. Welcome to The Megyn Kelly Show.

00:00:15.440 I am just back from a trip to Montana with my family and what a week it was.

00:00:21.480 Can I tell you I love Montana and I love a mountain vacation in the summer.

00:00:26.700 We spend our summers at the Jersey Shore where my husband has a lifetime of friends and memories and it's absolutely great.

00:00:33.060 Love, love, love our friends down here. But the truth is I'm not a beach person.

00:00:38.620 I don't like the sea or the sun or the sand or the sharks or the bugs.

00:00:44.680 And I love that my family loves it. But I at heart am much more of a mountain gal.

00:00:49.580 From the time I was a little girl growing up in Syracuse, New York to right now, what I've always really wanted to be was a cowgirl.

00:00:55.420 Well, I wanted to have a horse. My mom told me I was going to get one if I moved from Syracuse to Albany when I was 10 and she did not provide.

00:01:03.060 And this trip, I even managed to find a semi replica of the little shirt that I wore for an entire year of my young life around 1976, complete with cowgirl fringe and snaps.

00:01:12.080 It was amazing. For those of you listening to this, you can check it out on YouTube where I have post why I have posted the similarity in the shirts.

00:01:20.060 Score! I also changed my teeth since then.

00:01:26.640 Anyway, it's what I always wanted to be. And so I love going to the mountains.

00:01:29.700 And one of the things I love about the mountain vacation is how active it is.

00:01:34.220 Right. It's like active with with a bit of risk associated with many of the activities.

00:01:38.660 Risk or, you know, just physical challenge.

00:01:41.120 One of the things I don't like about the beach, I don't like sitting on the beach for hours making small talk.

00:01:44.440 I don't like small talk at all. I'm not good at it. I'm not one of those women who can like easily shift from subject to subject.

00:01:51.360 I've just I maybe it's this job. I can do it well in an interview, but I can't like I'm abrupt.

00:01:57.100 So I'm not good at small talk. But in the mountains, you don't sit around making small talk.

00:02:02.460 You move, you hike, you camp, you raft.

00:02:05.060 You do things you or at least I would never regularly do in the northeast, at least like fly fish.

00:02:10.820 There's there's an element of the unknown, the unfamiliar of the slightly dangerous.

00:02:15.780 Here's a picture of me catching my big fish.

00:02:17.920 There's a rainbow trout. It's thrilling.

00:02:20.500 But the other thing about being in the mountains is all that fresh air illuminates quite a few profundities about life and its meaning.

00:02:30.940 And that was indeed the case for us.

00:02:32.720 I told you about some of the things I learned after Thatcher, our youngest, was injured on the ski mountain back in March.

00:02:39.980 Like what matters in our limited time here, in my belief, is those people who are within 15 feet of you.

00:02:47.020 Pretty much everything and everyone that matters are within is within 15 feet of you.

00:02:52.040 Nature risk and the removal of most material objects can have the effect of clarifying complex life matters for a person.

00:02:59.720 Right. Like the fresh air makes you think more clearly.

00:03:03.100 And when we got there last weekend, the first thing we did was immediately go on an overnight camp.

00:03:07.980 We rode horses, all five of us, about two hours to the campsite.

00:03:12.440 And we spent the afternoon exploring, painting sticks.

00:03:15.920 That was something we used to do when we camped all the time when I was a kid.

00:03:18.560 Sitting by the campfire and singing songs.

00:03:21.740 Sleeping in the tent was fine.

00:03:23.460 It was fine.

00:03:24.080 But my daughter, Yardley, was recovering from a cold.

00:03:26.520 Oh, my God, we barely got a wink of sleep.

00:03:28.240 Have you ever had this situation where you're in the room with your child who's ailing in some way?

00:03:32.580 Finally, she got, you know, over like right by me.

00:03:35.360 And the child was coughing up my nostrils all night long.

00:03:40.240 The next morning, she's like, oh, can I have a sip of your water?

00:03:43.400 And oh, she says, I probably shouldn't because I'm sick.

00:03:45.500 I'm like, are you kidding?

00:03:46.120 You just coughed up my nostrils for 12 hours.

00:03:48.460 There you go.

00:03:50.180 But, you know, I'm sure you've been there.

00:03:52.580 You have kids.

00:03:54.260 Riding horses in Montana, by the way, is nothing, nothing like riding them in the Northeast.

00:03:59.280 Before we went out there, we took our kids for a lesson.

00:04:02.840 They haven't done a lot of horse riding.

00:04:04.140 My daughter's done a little bit more than my son's, but we took them for a lesson.

00:04:06.960 We went out there.

00:04:08.640 This is in New Jersey.

00:04:09.540 It was one hour split between three children walking around a corral on one horse led by a rope by the owner.

00:04:19.580 Like, that is not horseback riding.

00:04:22.540 It was a totally experience out West where they do make you sign a waiver, but they're not.

00:04:28.340 They're like, you don't need to wear a helmet.

00:04:30.140 Nobody really wears one.

00:04:31.100 You can just wear your hat, cowboy hat.

00:04:33.520 You did make our little guy wear one.

00:04:35.040 And you're jumping through, like, creeks and rivers.

00:04:41.280 Your horse is, like, up to its belly trying to get through the water.

00:04:45.000 You're going up these steep, steep inclines and steep, steep declines on, like, rocky ground where the horse could slip it.

00:04:53.140 I mean, it's scary.

00:04:54.100 It's scary, but everybody does it.

00:04:56.360 And there's sort of a lifetime in their life of experience telling you this is relatively safe.

00:05:01.800 Later in the week, we went fly fishing, which I absolutely love.

00:05:06.980 I showed you my rainbow trout, but that was not the most exciting thing I caught.

00:05:10.420 I cast my little fly fishing line into the water.

00:05:15.100 I've got something on it.

00:05:16.940 I pulled, I pulled.

00:05:19.320 And do you know what I pulled up?

00:05:21.080 I pulled up a three-foot snake, a snake on my fly fishing rod.

00:05:26.900 And I managed to capture a picture of it after we got it off of the rod and reel.

00:05:32.320 We were out there with, like, a guide to show us where to stand and how to do it, because I don't really know how to fly fish.

00:05:37.280 And he was helping my soon-to-be sister-in-law, Sharon, at the time.

00:05:41.080 So he couldn't see me.

00:05:42.180 So I'm screaming, going, oh, my God.

00:05:45.280 I caught a snake.

00:05:47.400 And the guide, of course, is like, you didn't catch a snake.

00:05:49.900 I'm like, I caught a snake.

00:05:51.060 He said, you sure it's not a twig?

00:05:52.360 I said, it's moving.

00:05:53.560 It's squiggling on the line.

00:05:54.840 It's not a twig that a guy came over and got it off.

00:05:58.660 And I said, in the retelling, I was going to say he defanged it.

00:06:01.560 So he defanged it, though it was only a garter snake.

00:06:05.720 Anyway, believe it or not, mine was not the most exciting fly fishing adventure in the family.

00:06:10.120 My son, Thatcher, was out there fishing.

00:06:12.380 And this is, you know, Montana and Alaska are the only two states with grizzly bears.

00:06:16.360 They also have black bears.

00:06:17.920 And apparently they also have blonde bears, because here is the blonde bear.

00:06:21.600 This is a growing black bear.

00:06:22.700 He saw, look at this.

00:06:25.500 It's a small guy.

00:06:26.740 The guy thought maybe this was like a teenager, you know, like if it were a cub, it would have

00:06:31.740 been with his mama.

00:06:32.960 But when they get a little bit older, they leave their moms.

00:06:36.180 And there he was swimming right by my Thatcher in the water.

00:06:38.640 Crazy, crazy stuff.

00:06:40.800 Then came zip lining, whitewater rafting.

00:06:43.440 By the way, we use Montana whitewater for both excursions.

00:06:45.840 And I definitely recommend them.

00:06:46.980 And no, they're not paying me to say that.

00:06:48.240 They're just great.

00:06:48.980 Um, so, you know, it's always hard to find where we are in the whitewater raft.

00:06:54.160 Uh, both, both just great experiences.

00:06:56.860 One day we hiked a mountain and I said to my kids, when we got to the top, look around,

00:07:03.600 this is the closest you will get to God in your lifetime.

00:07:06.660 And that is how it felt.

00:07:09.840 Serene, beautiful, picturesque, quiet, clean.

00:07:15.640 I mean, truly God's country.

00:07:18.300 Take a deep breath up there.

00:07:20.280 You exhale.

00:07:21.740 You look around.

00:07:23.320 You don't, you don't get closer to God than that.

00:07:25.940 You just don't.

00:07:27.840 I fired up some John Denver on my iPhone.

00:07:30.340 Another thing from when I was little and we camped and we sang a bit and we held hands

00:07:35.860 and we said a prayer and that was as good or better than any mass I've ever been to at

00:07:41.820 connecting me to the other side, to what matters, to a power higher than myself.

00:07:50.460 One of the blessings we experienced was that my brother and his fiance were able to join us

00:07:55.440 for most of the trip.

00:07:56.700 Now, I have not done a week's vacation with my brother, uh, since we were still under our

00:08:01.260 parents' roof.

00:08:02.140 He lives down in Atlanta.

00:08:03.780 Uh, he's five years older than I am.

00:08:05.860 He is whip smart.

00:08:07.460 His name's Pete.

00:08:08.220 He's incredibly funny, big personality, big personality, and always keep the room going

00:08:12.900 with conversation about something interesting too.

00:08:15.300 Really good at explaining things.

00:08:16.860 He's a businessman who's personally faced the ups and downs of running a small business

00:08:21.140 throughout Obamacare, the COVID nonsense, inflation, all of it.

00:08:27.100 And I've learned a lot from him in terms of what's in the news and how it affects real

00:08:31.580 businesses, real people.

00:08:32.800 And in terms of my own life and lessons, like do not throw a sneaker at your older brother

00:08:38.220 where he may grab you by the head and shoot water up your nose from the kitchen sink.

00:08:42.100 We were like oil and water when we were growing up.

00:08:46.140 It's possible I occasionally pestered him, but we have since become very close.

00:08:51.120 He coaches middle school football in his spare time.

00:08:53.300 He loves sports.

00:08:54.120 He loves gambling, poker, his family, his friends.

00:08:57.540 But he is not a guy who takes a ton of physical risks.

00:09:00.100 He's more of a cigar loving golf course guy.

00:09:02.860 So getting him out on a whitewater raft was a feat.

00:09:06.680 And while he admitted not really wanting to do it, he and we all absolutely loved it.

00:09:12.360 We laughed.

00:09:12.900 We screamed.

00:09:13.460 We got scared.

00:09:14.180 We felt relieved.

00:09:15.180 We mocked each other.

00:09:16.340 We supported each other.

00:09:17.840 We had a grand adventure together.

00:09:20.000 The kind of thing you remember long after the fact, right?

00:09:23.680 The kind of thing that bonds you to one another, whether it's your dear brother or it's your

00:09:29.960 sweet, loving husband or it's your fun children, all of whom are experiencing this thing together.

00:09:37.640 Now, there was this moment where we were going down a calm part of the Gallatin River,

00:09:42.120 and the guide was telling us that sometimes it's so easy to make conversation with the group

00:09:45.860 in his raft that a guide will forget to pay attention to what's ahead.

00:09:50.140 Rocks, sharp turns, and so on.

00:09:51.840 And he said the simplest but most important rule of his job is don't forget to guide the

00:09:57.740 boat.

00:09:58.680 Don't forget to guide the boat.

00:10:00.780 And it occurred to me, and I told him at the time, the same applies to parenting.

00:10:05.800 And it's true, right?

00:10:07.980 These kids, whether it was Pete and yours truly growing up in upstate New York, figuring out

00:10:12.820 the rules of life for brother and sisterhood, or my own kids now, ages 12, 11, and 9, they

00:10:19.920 have such strong personalities, likes and dislikes and character traits, which I believe undoubtedly

00:10:25.760 they enter the world with.

00:10:27.740 But there is some room for guidance, for a push now and then.

00:10:33.960 Doug and I considered not doing this trip after Thatcher's injury in March.

00:10:38.560 He's all healed up now, thank God, with a clean bill of health.

00:10:41.560 He had to go three months with no contact sports.

00:10:43.740 He had to sit out PE.

00:10:44.960 He had to not do a bunch of stuff.

00:10:47.060 We limited our travel and all that.

00:10:49.280 But he is great.

00:10:50.960 He's all healed up, and his spleen is 100%.

00:10:52.720 But, you know, we're still, we worry.

00:10:57.460 We worry.

00:10:58.320 Mountain vacations do, as I said, have some inherent risk in them, and we've had enough

00:11:01.440 hospital drama to last us for quite some time.

00:11:03.820 But the solution, we already knew and wound up realizing again, to seeing one risk turn

00:11:10.780 south is not to avoid other risks.

00:11:14.520 Risk is a part of life, especially well-considered risk, right?

00:11:17.800 This wasn't reckless stuff.

00:11:20.280 As a parent, you guide the boat.

00:11:22.860 You try to keep the child off two rough waters, but you don't leave the river.

00:11:27.600 You don't pull the boat.

00:11:28.440 But we climbed a very rocky mountain one day, and falling on a rocky mountain trail in the

00:11:36.820 winter in his snow boots was how Thatcher injured his spleen last spring and almost lost

00:11:40.960 it.

00:11:42.120 And when we navigated up that rocky mountain this time in the summer, we held his hand,

00:11:47.160 got a little walking stick, and showed him the way.

00:11:50.920 And he was a little scared, but he did it.

00:11:53.280 He made it to the top, and at one point, we snapped a photo of him, this one here, wearing

00:11:59.640 his little cowboy hat, made it safely.

00:12:04.160 And it felt amazing.

00:12:07.000 So Thatcher climbed the mountain, and all of us, including Yates and my daughter Yardley,

00:12:12.500 who you can see on this ziplining video, is now at age 11, as tall as I am, and is absolutely

00:12:18.940 loving life, got on the zipline, 60 feet in the air, and zipped away.

00:12:25.880 And we managed the bears, and the snakes, and the whitewaters, joyfully, and with a zest

00:12:32.620 for life, that fresh air and new experiences bring out in us all.

00:12:38.020 And when we got on the plane and headed back east, carrying on all of our bags, of course,

00:12:43.000 that's obvious, we all felt a little stronger, a little braver, a little better, more connected

00:12:51.400 to God and to each other.

00:12:54.420 And that's a lot to get out of a week's vacation.

00:12:58.080 And I am grateful.

00:13:00.040 But now, I'm also grateful to be back with you, because I always miss doing the show,

00:13:09.200 talking about the news, connecting with you guys.

00:13:11.460 And thankfully, we are ready to go with brand new shows this week, since I'm back live, and

00:13:16.460 there is plenty to cover.

00:13:18.220 In just a bit, my pal Jim Garrity of National Review will be here to discuss Nancy Pelosi's

00:13:23.040 possible trip to Taiwan.

00:13:25.060 What do we make of this?

00:13:26.080 Are we in favor of this or not in favor of this?

00:13:28.100 It's really interesting.

00:13:29.100 We'll get into it.

00:13:30.040 And there are several reports now that she is expected to go.

00:13:32.780 That's just breaking, despite threats from China and even President Biden saying this

00:13:36.760 is not a good idea.

00:13:38.260 But first, the top story today on The Wall Street Journal and in the country is what's

00:13:43.740 happening with the economy, inflation, and the journal reporting this morning about how

00:13:47.220 people are buying more essentials at dollar stores than ever before.

00:13:51.680 Yet the Biden administration continues to insist if you have fears over the economy, you're

00:13:56.340 just thinking about it all the wrong way.

00:13:58.380 You see, things are great.

00:13:59.440 You just don't know it.

00:14:01.400 My first guest is saying this is nothing short of Orwellian, the weird, coordinated messaging

00:14:07.320 between the administration and its media sycophants, the lemmings who just follow whatever they're

00:14:12.480 told to say by the Biden administration.

00:14:15.540 Peter Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro-Pacific Capital.

00:14:20.320 He joins me now.

00:14:21.280 Peter, so great to have you back.

00:14:22.680 It is Orwellian because, you know, we've spent the past, I don't know, 20, 30, 40 years being

00:14:29.780 told this is what makes a recession.

00:14:32.140 And the past, you know, week less than being told, forget everything we ever told you.

00:14:39.100 The rules are different now that we have a Democrat in the White House.

00:14:42.100 Yeah, well, first of all, it's not just 20 or 30 years.

00:14:45.500 I mean, it's kind of always been described as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP.

00:14:51.820 And we didn't hear differently until about, I don't know, like less than a week before

00:14:56.420 they released the official numbers for the second quarter.

00:15:00.640 And obviously, the Biden administration was leaked that GDP report.

00:15:05.140 They knew in advance that it was going to be negative.

00:15:08.560 And it wasn't until then that they came out with this ridiculous explanation or excuse

00:15:14.260 that two negative quarters of GDP do not constitute a recession.

00:15:19.740 Because prior to that knowledge, you know, they were pretending we had a strong economy.

00:15:24.180 They kept talking about how strong the economy was.

00:15:26.720 Well, it's been a recession the entire year.

00:15:28.760 Absolutely.

00:15:31.240 And so now with the official numbers coming out, second quarter, gross domestic product

00:15:35.200 fell 0.9%, though it was expected to rise 0.3%, we get a very different sounding message.

00:15:45.300 Now, I just want the audience to understand the administration made perfectly clear, just

00:15:50.920 like Peter did and like everybody did, what would mean we're in a recession.

00:15:56.820 And that is two consecutive periods, two consecutive quarters of negative growth.

00:16:01.060 They've been saying that along.

00:16:02.080 Even the Biden administration officials have been saying that it wasn't until it actually

00:16:04.980 happened to him that they and their media allies completely changed, did a 180 and started

00:16:10.440 to say it's a very different story.

00:16:13.220 OK, so here's the first soundbite, soundbite one.

00:16:15.480 You can hear the media and Biden administration officials trying to tell us black is not black.

00:16:20.840 White is white.

00:16:21.340 Not white.

00:16:23.560 This is OK.

00:16:24.440 So this is actually all Biden had been officials.

00:16:27.100 So take a listen to that.

00:16:29.400 I mean, if the technical definition is two quarters of contraction, you're saying that's

00:16:33.500 not a recession.

00:16:34.180 That's not the technical definition.

00:16:36.360 Two negative quarters of GDP growth is not the technical definition of recession.

00:16:41.520 You know, the idea that two quarters of negative GDP growth is a technical definition of a

00:16:46.540 recession is wrong.

00:16:47.920 How is that not redefining recession?

00:16:49.640 Because that's not the definition.

00:16:50.880 What we're seeing is that we are in a transition.

00:16:53.420 We've entered a new phase in our recovery.

00:16:56.060 Virtually nothing signals that this period in the second quarter is recessionary.

00:17:00.960 That doesn't sound like a recession to me.

00:17:02.680 OK, so the rules have changed for no particular reason other than they're just looking at other

00:17:09.100 standards.

00:17:09.560 They're looking at other pieces of the economy that they say are doing well, like low unemployment

00:17:12.700 and saying that changes the rules entirely.

00:17:15.840 Yeah, you know, I guess they they believe if you repeat a lie often enough, people will

00:17:22.060 believe it.

00:17:23.020 But imagine, Megan, if Donald Trump tried to do the same thing.

00:17:27.700 What if Trump were president and we had two quarters of negative GDP growth and then Donald

00:17:32.820 Trump tried to redefine recession to claim that we were not in one?

00:17:37.620 Do you think the media would go along with that?

00:17:40.560 Correct.

00:17:41.300 No, never.

00:17:42.100 And the media is going along with it because that those are the Biden administration officials,

00:17:46.000 I mean, including Janet Yellen, right?

00:17:48.280 Like it's not the technical definition to say that two quarters of contraction is a recession.

00:17:53.680 Well, it is when it is the technical definition.

00:17:56.460 That's the definition.

00:17:57.700 And, you know, even Fed Chair Powell, they got to him.

00:18:03.020 They were able to intimidate him.

00:18:05.560 So anybody who thinks the Fed is independent, now you have Chair Powell claiming that two

00:18:11.200 negative quarters is not a recession and we're not in a recession.

00:18:15.020 But, you know, Megan, two negative quarters is just a minimum for a recession.

00:18:19.400 We're going to get a third negative quarter.

00:18:21.080 We're going to get a fourth negative quarter.

00:18:22.720 We're going to be seeing contracting GDP for years.

00:18:26.180 This recession is just getting started and the increase in unemployment is coming.

00:18:33.600 People that are pointing to the low unemployment rate and saying this means we're not in recession.

00:18:38.500 That's nonsense.

00:18:39.960 Unemployment is a lagging indicator.

00:18:42.220 The unemployment rate is going to rise as the recession continues.

00:18:47.420 But also, Megan, they're trying to claim that we're not in a recession because we have a strong labor market.

00:18:54.000 We don't.

00:18:55.140 We have a very weak labor market.

00:18:57.620 Real wages are collapsing.

00:18:59.820 Wages have never really fallen this much in real terms in history.

00:19:04.200 That is a weak labor market.

00:19:05.880 When you have a strong labor market, workers can demand raises.

00:19:09.940 They have power.

00:19:10.940 They can go to their bosses and say, I want more money or I'm going to quit and take another job.

00:19:15.740 That's not happening.

00:19:17.240 Workers are being forced to work for pay cuts.

00:19:20.360 In fact, a lot of workers are taking second jobs and third jobs because they can't make ends meet on their main job.

00:19:26.840 That is a weak labor market.

00:19:29.880 So you're saying when you when inflation is at 9.1 percent and you're only getting a 5 percent raise, what you've really had is a 4 percent pay cut.

00:19:37.340 And that's not a strong labor market.

00:19:39.580 Correct.

00:19:40.240 I mean, let's say we had inflation and a strong labor market, which is what they're pretending.

00:19:45.520 If inflation was 9 percent, workers would be getting 12 percent pay raises.

00:19:50.080 They would be ahead of inflation.

00:19:51.500 The fact that they're accepting raises that are much smaller than inflation shows that this is a weak labor market.

00:19:58.760 Workers have no power.

00:20:00.680 They are forced to accept lower wages because the labor market is so weak.

00:20:07.180 Before we get into that, because I do want to ask you a little bit more about the wages on the administration contradictions, I just want to point this out.

00:20:13.960 All right.

00:20:14.120 First, there is Biden's National Economic Council director, Brian Deese.

00:20:17.440 In March of 2008, I think he was working for the Biden administration, he said economists have a technical definition of recession, two consecutive quarters of negative growth.

00:20:27.040 Now that he's with Biden, two negative quarters of GDP growth is not the technical definition of recession.

00:20:33.200 So which is it?

00:20:34.240 I mean, it's a 100 percent, 180 reversal by him.

00:20:38.260 Biden's chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisors, Cecilia Rose.

00:20:41.680 In May of 2022, two quarters of negative growth is an indicator of recession.

00:20:47.480 Now, as of July 21st in a White House blog post, what is a recession?

00:20:52.300 Some say it's two consecutive quarters of falling real GDP.

00:20:56.020 And she goes on to say that's neither the official definition nor the way economists evaluate the state of the business cycle.

00:21:01.320 She just said in May, two quarters of negative growth is an indicator of recession.

00:21:05.560 Then you got Jared Bernstein.

00:21:06.940 He's the economic advisor.

00:21:08.360 I got two more.

00:21:09.180 I got two more.

00:21:09.680 September of 19th, he says a recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of declining growth.

00:21:14.660 Now that idea is, quote, wrong.

00:21:16.980 And then you got Heather Boese, his economic advisor.

00:21:19.800 May 2019, a recession refers to two quarters of negative growth in GDP.

00:21:24.140 Now that does not necessarily indicate we're in a recession.

00:21:27.220 OK, Peter, I can't.

00:21:30.760 Well, look, I'm 59 years old.

00:21:33.240 And I have never in my life heard a recession defined any other way other than two negative quarters of GDP.

00:21:44.280 That's the definition.

00:21:45.460 Because recession refers to whether or not the GDP is expanding or contracting.

00:21:51.360 It doesn't refer to the level of unemployment or the level of inflation.

00:21:55.260 It specifically is there to reference what is happening with GDP.

00:22:01.680 That's how they define economic growth.

00:22:03.860 I mean, I have a lot of problems with GDP, but that's how recession has been defined.

00:22:09.040 Recovery is when the GDP is expanding.

00:22:12.580 Recession is when it's contracting.

00:22:16.380 That's it.

00:22:17.260 And if you've got two negative quarters in a row, you're in a recession.

00:22:21.260 Now, maybe it's a shallow recession.

00:22:23.300 Maybe it's going to be over quickly.

00:22:24.880 Now, I don't think so.

00:22:26.260 I think we're just early in this recession.

00:22:29.180 I think the third quarter is going to be even weaker than the first two.

00:22:33.380 In fact, I think they're going to revise the second quarter number even lower.

00:22:37.940 And I was not surprised by that negative number.

00:22:40.560 I expected it.

00:22:41.420 And in fact, last year, I expected the first quarter to be negative.

00:22:45.420 I was forecasting that the U.S. economy would be in recession in the first half of 2022 back in 2021.

00:22:53.640 And by the way, back in 2021, I was also forecasting that inflation was not transitory and that it would get worse.

00:23:01.480 I said inflation would strengthen and the economy would weaken.

00:23:04.560 We would have stagflation.

00:23:05.820 And that is exactly what we have.

00:23:07.620 You also said that Elon Musk would not buy Twitter and that if he did do it, it would be an economic mistake for him.

00:23:15.100 And we had you on for both of those.

00:23:16.760 And it turns out you were right about those predictions.

00:23:19.180 So just as a side, as a side.

00:23:21.500 All right.

00:23:21.640 Let me.

00:23:22.120 Well, that was an easy one.

00:23:24.120 Well, I mean, you kind of stood alone on it.

00:23:26.440 So to your credit, you were right.

00:23:28.900 Let me ask you about this.

00:23:30.420 I don't totally understand it, but I would like to in the dispatch, which is a new service, right?

00:23:35.540 Leaning Jonah Goldberg and others, they're talking about the the employment numbers and worker compensation.

00:23:42.560 OK, and how it rose.

00:23:44.220 Worker pay rose five point one percent in the second quarter, which was not enough to match inflation, as you and I just discussed.

00:23:51.200 But they say, but that's strong growth beat economists predictions.

00:23:55.520 Then they conclude as follows.

00:23:57.840 That is likely to make the Fed uneasy because it hints at the possibility of a wage price spiral, meaning when companies pass on the expense of higher wages to consumers by raising prices, motivating these consumers to seek still more pay raises and kicking off a vicious inflationary cycle.

00:24:20.140 Can you can you opine on this wage price spiral and are indeed employers passing on these higher wages to consumers in the form of prices?

00:24:32.200 The wage price spiral is another fiction created by government in the 1970s to try to blame the private sector for the inflation they created.

00:24:43.460 Inflation is not created by workers demanding raises.

00:24:46.440 It's not created by companies raising prices.

00:24:49.140 It's created by the government expanding the money supply.

00:24:52.580 That's the literal definition of inflation.

00:24:54.640 It's an expansion of the money supply.

00:24:56.820 It's the money supply that is being inflated.

00:24:58.820 And when you inflate the money supply, prices go up.

00:25:01.760 Wages are just another price.

00:25:04.020 They are the price of labor.

00:25:05.620 But just because nominal wages go up 5 percent, if inflation is 9 percent, that doesn't mean workers are ahead.

00:25:13.800 And in fact, the wage number is likely accurate.

00:25:17.740 The price number is not.

00:25:19.260 The real increase in consumer prices is probably 18 percent, not 9 percent.

00:25:24.260 That means real wages are collapsing.

00:25:27.640 You know, and that's one of the reasons that are the most recent economic data that we got last week.

00:25:32.340 The savings rate is now at the lowest level since mid 2009.

00:25:37.740 It collapsed down to 5.1.

00:25:40.200 What was happening to the economy in mid 2009?

00:25:44.520 We were in the Great Recession.

00:25:46.120 So the last time we had a savings rate this low, we were in a huge recession.

00:25:51.740 Why is the savings rate so low?

00:25:53.580 Because the recession is forcing workers to dip into their savings to pay their bills because their pay increases aren't enough.

00:26:03.120 Now, in the Biden administration's defense, the stock market is doing very well.

00:26:08.860 Stocks rallied in the past week and major stock market indexes ended July with their best monthly performance of the year.

00:26:15.380 The S&P 500, the Dow scored their best month since November 2020.

00:26:19.580 NASDAQ's best monthly performance since April of 2020.

00:26:23.480 So those are good things.

00:26:25.280 And and Joe Biden.

00:26:26.960 Not that.

00:26:27.880 Well, you know, that's what that's.

00:26:29.220 Joe Biden would like you to look at the stock market now as one sign that he's doing better than than we're being told.

00:26:34.980 Well, we're in a bear market.

00:26:37.420 The bear market rally notwithstanding, we're still in a bear market.

00:26:40.900 But the only reason the stock market is rallied is because the economy is so weak.

00:26:47.060 See, what's driving the stock market rally is the idea that because the economy is so weak, the Fed is going to pivot, that the Fed is not going to keep raising interest rates.

00:26:57.000 It's going to be forced to stop hiking rates and maybe cut rates to stimulate the economy.

00:27:02.220 So the reason the stock market has rallied is because we're in a recession.

00:27:06.820 So it's hard for Biden to kind of point to the stock market as indicative of his success when it actually is indicative of his failure.

00:27:15.200 Oh, that's fascinating.

00:27:16.920 OK, here's what he says.

00:27:18.500 He says, number one, we have a record job market at three point six percent unemployment.

00:27:24.840 That's like their biggest argument is that very few people who want jobs don't have one.

00:27:30.300 We've created he keeps saying this nine million new jobs so far just since I've become president.

00:27:35.640 He credits himself for every job people left and then refilled after the covid lockdown opened up.

00:27:41.640 Businesses are investing in America at record rates, foreign businesses and so on.

00:27:45.940 He points to this CHIPS Act he's doing where we're investing in semiconductor investments, trying to make more of those here domestically, which is a bipartisan push.

00:27:54.260 And we'll get to the so-called inflation reduction act that Manchin just agreed to in our second block.

00:28:01.200 So let's table that one for for the moment.

00:28:03.960 But what do you make of three point six percent unemployment?

00:28:07.540 We've created nine million jobs and businesses are investing in America.

00:28:10.740 And all of that puts the lie to the word recession.

00:28:14.620 Yeah, look, Biden just lies.

00:28:16.700 I mean, that's what he does.

00:28:17.720 I mean, that should be no surprise.

00:28:19.140 They lie about everything.

00:28:20.340 At least he's consistent in that.

00:28:22.340 But but sure, the official unemployment rate is three point six percent.

00:28:27.220 But the unofficial rate is much higher than that because there are a lot of people that are not employed but are not counted as being unemployed.

00:28:35.320 And we still have a very low labor force participation rate.

00:28:40.180 And so I look at that number as kind of being a meaningless, lagging indicator.

00:28:44.780 It is about to rise because, you know, Megan, a lot of companies were reluctant to lay people off over the past six months.

00:28:53.860 They were hopeful that what they were looking at was a temporary downturn.

00:28:58.680 They were hoping that inflation was transitory, that we would avoid recession because employers don't want to lay people off.

00:29:05.080 It's expensive.

00:29:05.920 You know, you train people, you invest money in your workers.

00:29:08.520 You don't want to just get rid of them unless you really know you need to.

00:29:12.140 But I think now that the economy is so bad and it's obviously getting worse, I think a lot of these companies that were holding on to their workers, I think they're going to start letting them go.

00:29:21.860 And so you're going to see a big increase in layoffs.

00:29:24.620 We're already seeing that in first time jobless claims, which are now above two hundred and fifty thousand.

00:29:29.940 They actually peaked above two hundred and sixty thousand the prior week.

00:29:32.980 This is the highest since the fall of last year.

00:29:35.820 That's a leading indicator, unlike the unemployment rate, which is a a lagging indicator.

00:29:42.280 And the idea that Biden created any jobs, I mean, that's ridiculous.

00:29:45.580 He didn't create anything.

00:29:46.960 You basically had a bunch of jobs before he became president where we told all the workers temporarily leave your job, go home, don't work.

00:29:56.460 We're going to pay you a bunch of money not to work.

00:29:58.460 So sit at home and stay at home.

00:30:00.660 Now, Biden walks into office and now we tell all those workers, hey, you know, the jobs that we told you to leave, you've got to go back to them.

00:30:09.080 So people are going back to the jobs they temporarily left.

00:30:12.300 And now Biden is saying, oh, look at me, I created all these jobs.

00:30:15.440 He hasn't created anything.

00:30:18.060 I'm sure if Biden wasn't president, we actually might have actually created jobs instead because of his policies.

00:30:24.400 We probably have fewer jobs and the jobs that we have pay less.

00:30:27.940 It's definitely a sleight of hand.

00:30:29.780 Even I can see that as a non-economist.

00:30:31.760 It's pretty, pretty simple.

00:30:33.360 But this I mean, the biggest headline while I was away was clearly this this mansion deal on this ill, ill named inflation reduction act.

00:30:44.120 And there's a lot to say about this.

00:30:46.080 I've been fascinated to see, like what it's going to do to corporations in terms of their taxes, what it's going to do to people earning less than two hundred thousand in terms of their taxes.

00:30:55.500 How much money is going into what Michael Schellenberger describes as not green technology, but brown technology of solar and wind, which has enormous consequences to the environment.

00:31:07.220 And otherwise that we're just pretending doesn't exist.

00:31:09.880 And yet it appears likely to pass.

00:31:12.360 So what's that going to do to everybody's wallet that's already suffering?

00:31:16.540 And what's it going to do with respect to their the Democrats electoral hopes?

00:31:21.320 Because get shoring up their very green left.

00:31:24.880 I mean, I guess may have been a problem for them, but they're they're really lagging in the middle.

00:31:29.780 So we'll see whether politically that's going to help them or not.

00:31:33.440 But we're going to talk about the economics of it when we come back with Peter right after this very quick break.

00:31:37.920 Don't go away.

00:31:38.400 So, Peter, we get this Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, which is a lie.

00:31:50.180 I mean, that is just branding, making forcing people like me to say what Joe Biden wants people to think.

00:31:56.520 But I'll I'll tell the audience, honestly, that's a lie.

00:32:00.260 It's not an inflation reduction act.

00:32:02.560 It's a gift to Biden's green energy supporters who wanted him to do something, anything on wind and solar.

00:32:10.920 And now you have, you know, folks like The Times referring to this as like the largest legislative climate investment the U.S. has ever made.

00:32:19.100 It aims to reduce carbon emissions by roughly 40 percent by 2030, which it won't do, say independent experts.

00:32:25.400 It's roughly 30 billion dollars in credits for domestic manufacturing of, quote, clean energy components, including solar panels, wind turbines, batteries and so on.

00:32:37.300 And it does.

00:32:38.220 I mean, the one good thing about it that Michael Schellenberger has been pointing out is it does also include some credits for nuclear.

00:32:45.840 So that's good.

00:32:47.480 I like they seem to be getting a little bit more open minded to the fact that nuclear is also a clean energy.

00:32:53.060 It's true clean energy, but that doesn't offset any of the financial problems associated with this enormous spending bill at a time when we're already suffering from record inflation due to too much government spending due in large part to too much government spending.

00:33:09.400 And the taxes in here on businesses are pretty staggering, not to mention what they say will be the taxes on people who make under two hundred thousand dollars.

00:33:19.020 The Congressional Joint Committee on Taxation says taxes on those people are going to jump sixteen point seven billion dollars in twenty twenty three.

00:33:28.680 So there's this will be a huge tax hike on people earning under two hundred.

00:33:33.260 Your thoughts on it?

00:33:34.980 Well, you know, it's unfortunate that we don't have a law that requires truth in legislating.

00:33:40.160 But, you know, if you want to know the effect of any kind of bill that Congress is going to pass or the president is going to sign, it's easy.

00:33:50.520 You just look at the title and you just think the opposite.

00:33:54.960 So this bill is titled the Inflation Reduction Act.

00:33:59.080 That means the bill is going to make inflation higher.

00:34:01.740 That's always the case.

00:34:03.120 Right.

00:34:03.260 If they have a tax simplification plan, it's going to make the tax system more complicated.

00:34:08.180 It's always the opposite.

00:34:09.420 And that's exactly what this bill is going to do.

00:34:12.860 If it's signed into law, it will make inflation worse.

00:34:18.260 Inflation will go up.

00:34:19.500 It will not go down.

00:34:20.960 And that's because you do not fight inflation by increasing government spending.

00:34:26.540 You do not fight inflation by raising taxes on businesses, because when you raise taxes on corporations, businesses, what you end up doing is getting less investment and you reduce supply.

00:34:39.280 So less stuff gets produced and that puts more upward pressure on prices.

00:34:44.020 When the government spends more money, that's more demand and that's putting more upward pressure on prices.

00:34:50.380 The only legislation that the government could pass that would reduce inflation would be significant cuts in government spending, right, that would reduce or eliminate the budget deficits so that the Fed no longer had to monetize them.

00:35:05.260 Also, the government could substantially repeal all sorts of rules and regulations that are currently running up the cost of doing business.

00:35:13.840 And so if they reduce those costs, then businesses could pass on those savings to their customers.

00:35:21.480 If they want to try to go after taxes, after inflation, rather, through tax hikes, the only tax hikes that might work would be taxes that are targeted to the middle class and the poor, because you have to reduce demand.

00:35:35.860 You have to reduce spending.

00:35:37.120 Obviously, if you raise taxes on the middle class, they have less money to spend.

00:35:41.540 But they're not going to do that.

00:35:43.320 And of course, I don't prefer that.

00:35:45.380 I would rather have government cut spending.

00:35:47.680 But if it's not going to cut spending, the only choice is to raise taxes.

00:35:51.500 If they do neither, then inflation is going to continue and get worse.

00:35:56.060 Well, I mean, maybe maybe they're onto something, because, again, according to this nonpartisan data being cited by Senate Republicans, the Congressional Joint Committee on Taxation, they cite, they will be raising taxes on people making less than 200, as I said, by 16.7 billion.

00:36:12.180 They'll jump another 14.1 billion on taxpayers who make between 200 and 500.

00:36:18.360 And the Democrats' response to this is to say, well, that analysis is not complete because it doesn't include all the wonderful goodies that we're going to be getting from middle class families in terms of making health insurance premiums and prescription drugs more affordable and all the great clean energy incentives for families.

00:36:39.640 The clean energy incentives, that's something Schellenberger has been saying all along.

00:36:43.360 That's a lie.

00:36:44.620 They always spend all this money.

00:36:46.240 It doesn't save you anything.

00:36:47.320 The government doesn't make anything more affordable.

00:36:48.140 Everything the government gets involved in becomes more expensive and less affordable.

00:36:52.920 The way to get things to be more affordable is to get the government out of the way.

00:36:58.120 It's a competitive free market that brings prices down and makes things affordable.

00:37:03.380 Whenever the government gets involved, it screws everything up, it runs up the costs, and stuff gets more expensive.

00:37:10.320 There isn't a single example throughout history, in this country or any other country, where government got involved in an industry and it made that industry more efficient and it lowered prices.

00:37:21.300 Only the free market has a history of doing that.

00:37:25.360 The administration thinks this is a massive win and you've got Politico now declaring Biden is back in the game.

00:37:35.500 They say the president is suddenly on the verge of a turnaround that the White House believes could salvage his summer and alter the trajectory of his presidency.

00:37:43.860 All he needs to do now is close.

00:37:46.920 And that means getting Kyrsten Sinema to sign on to this and then to take the victory lap that the media will be all too happy to provide him.

00:37:53.520 Look, all Biden is doing and the Democrats, they're taking advantage of the fact that the public is upset about inflation.

00:37:59.900 So they take a bill that is not going to reduce inflation, that will actually make it worse.

00:38:04.760 They name it the Inflation Reduction Act.

00:38:07.240 And now that they have an act with a title that nobody wants to vote against because everybody is in favor of reducing inflation, and then they load it up with a bunch of pork.

00:38:15.500 And that's basically what this is.

00:38:17.460 It's an excuse to enable the Democrats to get all this pork barrel legislation passed by promising the public it's going to lower inflation when it's actually going to make inflation higher.

00:38:27.700 They have, just to put some numbers on it, Wall Street Journal editorial board out very much against this bill for many of the reasons you cite.

00:38:37.200 They say if their aim is to reduce inflation by chilling business investment and the economy, nailed it.

00:38:44.080 $433 billion in climate and health care spending.

00:38:48.640 I mean, it's sort of like, what's the health care spending doing in there?

00:38:51.920 $615 billion in new taxes and drug price control, quote, savings.

00:38:57.880 They're pointing out how the new tax is going to increase the cost of business investment.

00:39:01.460 And that actually, according to the Tax Foundation, the coal industry is going to be the hardest hit.

00:39:05.760 That's Manchin's hometown, right?

00:39:07.840 He's from West Virginia.

00:39:08.880 So what's he doing?

00:39:10.200 That companies are going to get tax credits for spending on wind, solar, minerals, as I mentioned, nuclear, yes, quote, sustainable aviation fuel and so on, electric vehicle charging stations.

00:39:20.920 But that they say the Biden administration is using regulation to essentially mandate that automakers churn out electric vehicles.

00:39:29.260 And now the taxpayers are going to subsidize that cost, which they can ill afford to do.

00:39:35.320 You know, the best thing that happened to the Biden administration is that Joe Manchin stopped the Build Back Better bill.

00:39:41.020 Could you imagine how much worse things would be if that thing had been passed?

00:39:43.820 Well, I mean, he seems to be saying this is a mini, mini Build Back Better, but that it's much better than Build Back Better, that people are going to like it more.

00:39:52.720 Well, it's less worse.

00:39:54.720 I wouldn't say that it's good.

00:39:56.140 But, yes, it's not as bad.

00:39:58.520 And I think there is a lot of pressure on Manchin with the midterms coming up to kind of play ball.

00:40:04.720 I mean, after all, I mean, he is a Democrat.

00:40:06.780 I mean, so unless he's going to switch parties, I mean, he's got to throw him some kind of a bone.

00:40:12.080 So it looks like he's going to cave on this.

00:40:15.680 But it's not nearly as bad as the bill that he blocked.

00:40:18.240 That's for sure.

00:40:18.780 What do you make of the 15 percent corporate minimum tax, which is what they're going to do?

00:40:22.620 They want to raise revenues for the legislation by raising, you know, the 15 percent corporate minimum tax.

00:40:28.260 And they say that's going to raise three hundred and thirteen billion through 2031.

00:40:31.920 I am opposed to any of these minimum taxes because we have a corporate income tax.

00:40:38.920 And if a corporation doesn't have any tax, it's because it doesn't have any taxable income.

00:40:44.620 So you can't say, hey, you didn't make enough income.

00:40:48.120 So we're going to tax something that is an income and call it income so that we can force you to pay 15 percent on it.

00:40:55.900 I think the whole thing is illegal.

00:40:57.360 I think it's unconstitutional.

00:40:59.040 I think if you have an income tax and you have, you know, brackets, and if a company doesn't make enough income to be subject to the tax, well, then it doesn't have to pay the tax.

00:41:08.920 But of course, personally, I would abolish the personal the corporate income tax.

00:41:12.560 I don't think we should have any corporate income tax.

00:41:14.620 Because corporations don't pay taxes.

00:41:17.320 They're paid by shareholders.

00:41:18.980 They're paid by their workers and they're paid by their customers.

00:41:21.560 The corporation itself doesn't pay anything.

00:41:24.320 So why not eliminate the corporate tax altogether and just have one level of taxation, you know, on the shareholders when they get their dividends or their capital gains.

00:41:33.220 They're already taxing the workers on their paychecks.

00:41:36.000 The customers pay taxes.

00:41:37.240 They have their own income taxes.

00:41:38.580 Just get rid of the corporate income tax.

00:41:40.420 We shouldn't have it.

00:41:41.120 Now, of course, if it was up to me, we'd have no personal income tax either.

00:41:44.620 I'm opposed to all forms of taxation based on income.

00:41:48.920 I think it's an unconstitutional tax.

00:41:50.940 I think it's a destructive tax economically.

00:41:54.440 But, you know, certainly it makes no sense to have a corporate income tax if you already have a personal income tax.

00:41:59.460 Well, we'll see how the public feels about this and whether they agree with Politico that, you know, Biden's back and Democrats are feeling a new sense of optimism going into the midterms.

00:42:10.440 If this gets through as it's expected to, though, you know, there's still some questions given cinema and so on.

00:42:14.820 But back to the messaging on it and the politics of it.

00:42:18.920 I know you tweeted about this and it's one of the soundbites we played.

00:42:22.000 The Treasury Secretary is out there saying that what we're in is a state of transition, transition, not not recession, not recession.

00:42:32.080 And I saw you saying something to the effect of, OK, we're now at the point where you've got the Treasury Secretary suggesting that, oh, recession is just a it's just a transitory thing.

00:42:42.980 It's like yet another stage of our recovery.

00:42:45.700 That's what she wants us to believe.

00:42:46.700 Well, they said the same thing about inflation, right?

00:42:49.180 They like that word transitory.

00:42:50.820 Inflation was transitory.

00:42:52.440 The recession is transitory.

00:42:54.000 It's not even a recession.

00:42:55.380 We're just transitioning.

00:42:57.020 They're right.

00:42:57.600 We're transitioning from growth to recession.

00:42:59.740 That's what that what that's what the transition was.

00:43:02.240 And now we're in recession.

00:43:03.720 We've been in recession all year and the recession is going to get much worse now that it's officially begun.

00:43:10.940 And, you know, the Fed is still hiking interest rates.

00:43:13.960 Inflation is still pushing prices higher.

00:43:16.700 So there's no reason for the economy to strengthen.

00:43:19.880 All of the forces that have been pushing the economy down are accelerating and are going to bear even harder on the weakening economy.

00:43:29.200 OK, which leads me to does this work?

00:43:32.080 Because if you look at how people are feeling about the economy, they're getting it.

00:43:36.560 They understand it's not good.

00:43:38.680 And just some of the latest numbers there, they polled consumer confidence.

00:43:43.340 Gallup did recently.

00:43:44.340 And it's hit its lowest level since 2009 in the economy.

00:43:49.480 Eighty five percent of people surveyed also predict things are about to get worse.

00:43:54.240 They know it's bad and they know it's getting worse.

00:43:57.020 And so I wonder, you know, how how how do you square that circle?

00:44:02.200 Right.

00:44:02.340 Like, look, they can't just stand up there saying over and over.

00:44:05.240 Walks like a duck and quacks like a duck.

00:44:07.460 It's a duck.

00:44:08.580 The last time consumers were this pessimistic, we were in a recession.

00:44:13.680 Also, look at Joe Biden's approval rating just hit a new low.

00:44:17.780 I think it's down to 38.

00:44:19.100 But if you look at his average approval rating for the first six quarters of his presidency, it is the lowest of any president in history.

00:44:28.800 So why is Biden so unpopular?

00:44:32.060 Maybe it's because the economy is in recession.

00:44:34.720 And maybe the fact that he's denying that is going to make him look even worse in the eyes of the voters.

00:44:40.720 At least he could do is be a Bill Clinton and feel and feel our pain.

00:44:44.920 But instead, he's oblivious to the faint pain.

00:44:47.800 He's telling people that there is no pain.

00:44:49.860 Well, I think there's going to be a lot of pain for Democrats at the polls in November because I think this strategy is going to backfire.

00:44:57.100 Here's what I think it was Biden said.

00:44:59.640 If you ask people how they're doing, they say, great, I'm doing well.

00:45:02.580 If you ask people if you ask people, how's the economy doing?

00:45:05.360 They say, oh, it's terrible.

00:45:06.480 So he thinks he's going to benefit off the fact that most people, you know, he believes are employed.

00:45:11.180 He believes aren't feeling the pinch.

00:45:12.740 Well, if most people aren't feeling the pinch, why are they all shopping at the dollar store now where they used to be?

00:45:17.480 It's not like they were all at the most fancy store in town.

00:45:20.980 They were they were at like, you know, Target.

00:45:24.120 Right. But now they can't afford Target.

00:45:26.380 So why? So if they're all so jolly about their personal circumstances, why do we see this number from Gallup?

00:45:31.160 And why do we see the Wall Street Journal report on the dollar store?

00:45:33.460 Well, I think Biden has a biased sample.

00:45:36.580 He's probably asking his buddies that work in Washington, D.C. and people in the Biden administration.

00:45:42.400 And, yeah, they're doing good.

00:45:43.380 They've got government paychecks.

00:45:45.500 They're living off the public trough.

00:45:47.020 So all the people that Biden is talking to, yeah, I'm sure they're doing great.

00:45:51.260 But he's not talking to real people who are struggling with collapsing real wages, with depleted savings, watching their grocery bills, their gas bills, their rent, their mortgage payments, their insurance costs.

00:46:06.760 Everything is going up.

00:46:07.900 And again, people are struggling having to take second and third jobs.

00:46:12.300 You have a lot of people who are no longer retired because they can't afford retirement anymore.

00:46:17.600 So now they're being forced to take these low paying jobs.

00:46:21.700 You know, this is a horrible economy.

00:46:23.780 The bad news is it's going to get a lot worse.

00:46:26.880 What about what about gas prices?

00:46:28.080 Because they've fallen.

00:46:28.880 They're down now for 22 a gallon, which is still astronomical.

00:46:32.720 But it's not as bad as it was a couple of months ago.

00:46:35.100 And the administration has been touting that as, see, we're making progress.

00:46:38.520 Withhold judgment.

00:46:40.140 Well, you know, nothing goes up in a straight line.

00:46:42.340 I mean, oil prices have pulled back.

00:46:44.620 They're going to make new highs.

00:46:45.980 And remember, we are dumping millions and millions of barrels of oil into the market out of the strategic petroleum reserve.

00:46:54.480 Well, at some point, that reserve is going to run dry.

00:46:57.960 There's going to be nothing left to sell.

00:46:59.900 And then we're in a lot of trouble because then prices are going to skyrocket.

00:47:03.800 And that's going to happen anyway once the dollar really rolls over.

00:47:07.520 The dollar has strengthened during this inflationary period, ironically, because inflation is about the dollar losing purchasing power.

00:47:15.260 But on international foreign exchange market, the dollar has been bid up because people are optimistic that the Fed will succeed in getting rid of inflation with rate hikes.

00:47:25.320 And that's pushed up the dollar.

00:47:27.040 But when the markets realize that the Fed failed, that it surrendered and inflation won because the Fed has to go back and try to stimulate a weak economy, I think the dollar is going to tank.

00:47:38.880 And that's going to really push inflation up.

00:47:41.040 I mean, oil prices up to a much higher level because oil is priced in dollars.

00:47:46.840 And so the strong dollar has helped keep the price of oil down.

00:47:51.460 But when we get a weak dollar, that's going to propel the price of oil much higher.

00:47:56.020 I mean, if oil rose to one hundred and thirty dollars a barrel with a strong dollar, it could go to two hundred dollars a barrel with a weak dollar.

00:48:02.800 Oh, gosh. So in our last, you know, 30, 40 seconds, what should people expect in terms of jobs, housing and overall economy?

00:48:13.660 Well, as I said, this recession is going to get much worse.

00:48:17.140 Inflation is going to keep driving prices higher.

00:48:20.800 Rates are going to go higher.

00:48:22.380 That's going to increase the cost of servicing debt and further undermine the economy.

00:48:27.940 Plus, higher interest rates are another cost of doing business that has to get passed on.

00:48:33.520 So the economy is going to get worse.

00:48:35.160 The housing market, obviously, if you look at home prices, even adjusted for inflation, they're at all time record highs.

00:48:41.660 They're higher than they were at the peak of the bubble back in 2006.

00:48:46.580 And so housing prices have to come down.

00:48:48.580 In real terms, they will come crashing down.

00:48:50.920 It's always hard to say what will happen in nominal terms because there's going to be so much inflation.

00:48:55.580 But I think that as the recession gets worse, inflation is not going to go away.

00:49:02.600 A lot of people think that the recession will at least cure the inflation problem.

00:49:06.480 It won't.

00:49:06.940 It's actually going to make the inflation problem much worse.

00:49:09.900 So think about what's coming.

00:49:12.180 It's going to be even higher inflation and a much worse recession.

00:49:16.200 A lot of people that have jobs now are going to lose jobs.

00:49:19.760 But even the people who don't lose their jobs are going to have to deal with significant pay cuts.

00:49:25.080 Right.

00:49:25.580 Thank you for being here.

00:49:26.580 And we'll do it all over again soon.

00:49:27.920 Don't go away.

00:49:28.420 Jim Garrity's up next.

00:49:33.740 Will Speaker Nancy Pelosi be making a stop in Taiwan tomorrow, despite warnings from China and her own party and president urging her not to do it?

00:49:43.360 Certainly looks that way.

00:49:44.600 Here to discuss that and plenty more in the news is Jim Garrity, senior political correspondent for National Review.

00:49:50.280 Jim, so good to have you back.

00:49:51.180 How are you?

00:49:51.800 Always happy to be with you, Megan.

00:49:52.960 I've been listening to the editor's podcast while I've been on vacation.

00:49:56.240 I know Rich has been gone and you've been doing a great job manning the fort.

00:50:00.200 They gave you the keys to the podcast studio.

00:50:01.920 You said you did a great job.

00:50:03.840 Thank you.

00:50:04.100 And I basically told all of our, you know, panelists, like, look, just pretend this is Weekend at Bernie's.

00:50:09.960 Rich is away.

00:50:10.960 Charlie's away.

00:50:11.980 We're going to have a raging kegger.

00:50:14.420 It's going to be absolutely out of control.

00:50:16.320 And if this podcasting studio is still standing at the end, that's a good sign.

00:50:19.940 We got through it.

00:50:20.440 Speaking of Weekend at Bernie's, I'm sorry to begin this way, but you just led me into it so beautifully.

00:50:28.500 Something's wrong with President Biden.

00:50:30.580 Something's definitely wrong with President Biden.

00:50:32.920 The latest is his the White House put out like some speech of him that they controlled.

00:50:38.480 And you can see, first of all, they need to bring back the guy that they used for the January 6th hearings, who was the ABC News executive.

00:50:46.080 He knows how to cut a video together.

00:50:48.420 The people at the White House helping Joe Biden do not.

00:50:50.940 Look at this jump cut.

00:50:52.500 James Goldstein.

00:50:53.380 Look at this jump cut.

00:50:54.260 Look at the difference between Biden in the first part of this and Biden in the second part of this.

00:50:59.680 It's almost like, you know, when they take the horse to the Kentucky Derby and the illegal trainers stick it with some sort of like a amphetamine and suddenly it's like, oh, I'm awake.

00:51:10.000 I got this.

00:51:11.140 Watch.

00:51:11.560 And to the listeners at home, see if you can tell the difference in where it shifts.

00:51:16.880 But get access to good jobs and training, affordable housing, food and medical benefits.

00:51:23.700 All these steps will reduce crime and prevent crime from happening in the first place.

00:51:28.140 And my Safer American plan is part of my administration's relentless efforts to invest and empower black communities to be architects of their own future.

00:51:40.060 Jim, his eyes are all slit.

00:51:42.780 He's leaning.

00:51:43.460 He's like leaning forward on the desk.

00:51:45.720 He can barely hold it together.

00:51:46.800 And then suddenly it's like, secretary.

00:51:48.340 OK, I'm ready.

00:51:49.300 I'm awake.

00:51:50.100 I'm back.

00:51:51.500 I was going to say for all the listeners out there, I'm sure you have your own Media Matters for America tracker.

00:51:57.080 Megan, I cannot confirm that Joe Biden is on meth, as you implied in that earlier comment, like another confirm or deny or anything like that.

00:52:06.700 He's probably on some sort of medication.

00:52:08.260 Look, probably going for basically going back to the general election of 2020, when as a precaution for COVID-19, Joe Biden was not out on the campaign trail the way a presidential candidate would usually be.

00:52:21.160 You've had people saying, wow, this guy got a lot older than we remember him as vice president.

00:52:26.640 How is he?

00:52:27.440 Is he is he doing OK?

00:52:28.580 What's his energy level?

00:52:29.520 And we kept getting these, you know, brief, very organized, very, very well rehearsed, you know, short video appearances through Zoom, which was reasonable as a precaution of COVID-19.

00:52:42.180 But we noticed that, like, this is not the Joe Biden we were used to seeing.

00:52:46.180 I think it was right around this time last year, maybe about, you know, mid-August, where everything in Afghanistan fell apart.

00:52:52.720 And the president did not make any public appearances for four days.

00:52:56.520 When he did start making public appearances, he was making brief remarks, and then he was quickly leaving, not taking any questions.

00:53:03.740 And then when he finally did do a sit-down interview with George Stephanopoulos, you may remember that went very badly with, that was four or five days ago, man.

00:53:11.180 It had actually been two days ago, and it was just kind of this weird, odd, cranky grandpa response to this fairly serious crisis.

00:53:20.180 I went through the, at least what the White House had publicly disclosed about Biden's schedule for those days.

00:53:26.000 He'd only had two phone calls with foreign leaders, one with Boris Johnson, one with Angela Merkel.

00:53:33.060 So those of us outside the White House who are not in the Biden inner circle are kind of left asking, well, what's he doing with his time?

00:53:39.680 And then, you know, pretty clearly, even before that event, but it's been very clear since Afghanistan last summer, the president does not do a lot on weekends.

00:53:47.120 He's very often back in the Delaware beach house.

00:53:50.540 He was not there this past weekend because he's still testing positive for COVID.

00:53:54.340 He doesn't do a lot of night events, and basically, you don't see the president speaking very much before maybe about 10 a.m. in the morning, and not too much past two or three in the afternoon.

00:54:04.300 You know, the man is almost 80.

00:54:05.760 He turns 80 shortly after the midterm elections.

00:54:07.720 I think it's fair.

00:54:08.340 I have long suspected that the president probably only has a limited number of good hours in the day.

00:54:13.360 And any public appearances he has to make, anything really important, we've got to put it in those hours because he's got to get to bed early.

00:54:20.680 He's got to get to sleep late.

00:54:22.500 And my suspicion is that, you know, years from now, we're probably here.

00:54:26.260 Actually, Biden's health was much worse than the public knew, but nobody in the White House was going to let anyone know about that.

00:54:31.040 Mm hmm.

00:54:32.160 Well, there does seem to be something weird going on.

00:54:34.160 And I realize he has COVID, but there was this other video that my team cut.

00:54:39.580 I don't have time to play it, but you can see him for a full 40 seconds staring with a big eye and he doesn't blink.

00:54:44.640 And it really does sort of have the feeling of is he on something?

00:54:48.480 Because that's not normal to go 40 seconds.

00:54:51.360 Yeah, I mean, maybe that's some reaction to the COVID medication or something.

00:54:54.260 But I think, look, most of us either have elderly parents or elderly grandparents.

00:54:59.760 We've seen people who are, you know, getting into the late 70s, into their 80s.

00:55:04.140 And I don't want to reuse the Dennis Miller joke about Ronald Reagan, where I don't even let my dad use the TV remote control anymore.

00:55:11.040 I don't want him having his finger on the button.

00:55:13.120 But, you know, the presidency is a really tough job.

00:55:15.400 And it's not the sort of job where you can organize around that.

00:55:19.620 Apparently, the closest the White House has ever come to admitting that Biden's age is an issue was when they said he couldn't do the Europe trip and the Middle East trip back to back.

00:55:28.980 And it would have been 10 days.

00:55:30.000 And look, that's that's 10 days of overseas travel is a lot for anybody.

00:55:34.900 But on the other hand, they keep telling us the president is in tip top shape.

00:55:38.320 And I think probably the most glaring and irritating example of this was the White House press secretary, Karine Jean-Pierre, saying that she has a hard time keeping up with Biden.

00:55:48.280 And I think she's in her early 50s.

00:55:50.300 She seems to be she should be fired.

00:55:52.060 Biden is 79.

00:55:53.000 Don't tell me you can't keep up with a mere octogenarian.

00:55:56.280 Come on.

00:55:56.720 You know, it's that you know, what's that saying about peeing on my leg and tell me it's raining?

00:56:00.120 You know, that's Judge Judy.

00:56:01.320 That's her name.

00:56:02.140 One of her books.

00:56:03.460 Yeah, no, that's not true.

00:56:04.560 But I but I do think the thing you raise is interesting, because when the when the White House staffers anonymously told The New York Times, we couldn't send him right on the heels of the Middle East or whatever.

00:56:14.260 The two trips couldn't go back to back because of his age.

00:56:16.440 They were doing it in the context of he needs to be replaced.

00:56:20.300 This is like the New York Times double fisted article.

00:56:23.560 Remember, they did like one on Saturday, one on Monday.

00:56:25.820 That was basically like he's too old to run again.

00:56:28.220 And it's been an interesting dynamic to see the press, some of the press and the Democrats starting to actively talk about how we need another nominee.

00:56:35.740 Now you got political like he's back in the wake of mansion turning.

00:56:39.500 Right.

00:56:39.660 Like he's back.

00:56:40.760 He's got the chips thing through, which nobody was even talking about.

00:56:43.420 OK, more semiconductors made in America.

00:56:45.300 I guess that's a good thing.

00:56:46.860 And now this like it's build back better.

00:56:49.280 It's really kind of tiny, but it's a lot of spending on a lot of Democrat wish list items.

00:56:52.880 So the press is going to get a little bit more favorable.

00:56:55.100 So my question is, what does the press do now?

00:56:57.020 Is he the guy who's too old and too feeble and has to be replaced by the stylish, great hair Gavin Newsom?

00:57:03.300 Or is he the guy who's back and he's going to take us to the promised land, our incumbent sitting president who can definitely defeat anybody who comes up against him?

00:57:10.760 Yeah, it is easy to suspect that there are certain media voices that got tired of the Joe.

00:57:16.420 Can Joe Biden do anything right?

00:57:18.240 And Joe Biden is in the doldrums and all that stuff.

00:57:20.420 And hey, it's time to try to set up the comeback narrative.

00:57:23.680 Look, let's face it.

00:57:24.800 Joe Manchin saying he can do a skinny version of Build Back Better.

00:57:28.560 I'm not calling it the Inflation Reduction Act because I know I'd expect that act to actually reduce inflation and all that stuff.

00:57:35.100 In fact, I think I was watching the last segment.

00:57:37.360 I hope Peter's doing OK.

00:57:38.580 I saw all the coughing.

00:57:39.680 I think he just couldn't swallow the spin that he was hearing from the administration there.

00:57:44.760 Look, you know, it was very interesting to see.

00:57:47.440 But when I wrote this after Afghanistan saying something's wrong with the president, you know, he shouldn't be this away from the cameras during a crisis.

00:57:54.300 He's not taking questions.

00:57:56.040 This is not normal for a president.

00:57:57.980 We all know it was like, what, 90 some days, 100 days before he did a sit down interview.

00:58:02.280 And then he did it with Jimmy Kimmel, you know, that that famed newsman with all the tough questions, you know, barely made it through.

00:58:09.240 This is a guy who's close to 80 years old, is not have the energy level he used to.

00:58:13.420 And, you know, when he says he doesn't remember the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff or a secretary of defense telling him to keep the Bagram Air Base open, he could be lying.

00:58:23.800 He could be just kind of trying to cover his butt and spinning.

00:58:26.260 But also, maybe the president doesn't remember what he was briefed in certain circumstances, you know, not too long ago.

00:58:32.280 This is one of those where Biden says he doesn't recall hearing that.

00:58:35.220 I might believe him if he didn't hear it himself.

00:58:37.560 So I've long had a theory, Jim, that the reason Kamala Harris speaks like she's speaking to a third grader whenever she's explaining anything is because of the practice with him.

00:58:47.080 Like, that's how she speaks to the president.

00:58:49.440 She's this is just how she's become used to addressing anybody and everybody.

00:58:53.640 I was on vacation, but I do want to spend a moment on her comments to this.

00:58:59.460 It was a Roe versus Wade.

00:59:01.180 You know, people upset about Dobbs and the reversal of Roe versus Wade.

00:59:04.500 And I guess that there were some blind people in the group.

00:59:07.600 And now we've gotten to the point where we know I have to say our pronouns.

00:59:10.520 We have to describe ourselves physically.

00:59:12.640 Here was the latest example from the vice president of that.

00:59:15.380 I am Kamala Harris.

00:59:19.020 My pronouns are she and her.

00:59:20.440 I am a woman sitting at the table wearing a blue suit.

00:59:24.940 I love this.

00:59:26.400 I'm going to start this.

00:59:27.220 I'm going to be like, I am a six foot two Bridget Nielsen imitation with this double D breast.

00:59:33.720 I'm like, why not?

00:59:35.420 OK, I like I appreciate there's a blind person.

00:59:38.180 But like blind people are not running around being like, I need everybody to describe everything to me.

00:59:42.780 They have found ways of dealing with their challenges the same way deaf people have.

00:59:47.540 Like, there's just no identity now that can't be swept into.

00:59:51.860 I, as a good person, meaning Democrat, will do the extra, will go the extra mile to make you feel comfortable.

00:59:58.280 Unlike the evil Republicans who won't speak this way.

01:00:01.460 Yeah, it does feel like there's something weirdly condescending.

01:00:03.620 Although I hadn't thought about it until you mentioned it, Megan, that, you know, my name is Jim Garrity.

01:00:08.980 My pronouns are what the heck do you think?

01:00:10.700 And I am strikingly handsome.

01:00:13.060 And yes, my my weight is just what it should be.

01:00:15.760 Don't worry.

01:00:17.100 Look, I suppose there's this.

01:00:19.660 You mentioned the idea of the Biden comeback story.

01:00:22.300 Do you know it's like every three months or so we get a Kamala Harris got off to a rough start.

01:00:26.980 But now it's the turnaround.

01:00:28.780 She's got a new team around her because there's always new staffers coming and going.

01:00:32.140 And now she's she's been quieted.

01:00:34.420 But now she's found her sea legs and now she's ready to start a new era as vice president.

01:00:39.780 And then you pretty much get the same things we got before.

01:00:42.780 I know she's on the emphasizing a lot on abortion rights on her various visits and stuff.

01:00:48.100 But they have her out talking to state legislators.

01:00:50.460 I raised the question a couple of weeks ago, does Biden and this administration act like they trust Kamala Harris?

01:00:57.300 I'd argue, no, I don't think they give her particularly high profile places to speak and assignments and roles.

01:01:04.460 And I think it's kind of fair to ask whether the Biden inner circle, who did not like the way she went after him in that very first debate way back at the beginning of the Democratic primary in 2020.

01:01:15.360 I wonder how many everybody how much everyone forgot forgave her.

01:01:18.320 I wonder how much everyone is ready to see her as part of the team.

01:01:21.180 It certainly does not act like, you know, for all the time.

01:01:23.900 Apparently, Biden doesn't even have the weekly lunches that he had with Barack Obama.

01:01:27.840 And so you kind of for those of you who have this maybe suspicious way of thinking that in the end, Biden saw Kamala Harris as just a way to get elected.

01:01:38.360 That basically I promised I was going to elect and select an African-American woman.

01:01:42.020 She's the most high profile one there is.

01:01:44.880 I'll go with it.

01:01:45.980 But I don't really plan on using her as a key asset in this administration.

01:01:49.780 If he had that mentality, what would be different?

01:01:52.360 She was she reminds me when I was on Fox News, there were certain people who Roger Ailes loved from like his olden days, you know, doing politics and so on.

01:02:04.240 And they were all older.

01:02:06.300 Some of them were younger, but he just had it sort of his cast of favorites who he he was loyal to, but he didn't want to hire for jobs on Fox News.

01:02:13.160 And we called him must do like this one's a must do.

01:02:16.420 So you have to give three minutes to this person on a big night, even though the audience didn't really want to hear from that person.

01:02:22.560 And the anchors didn't really want to interview that person.

01:02:25.240 And this person was very unlikely to say anything particularly interesting.

01:02:28.800 They were a must do.

01:02:29.700 And she's a must do.

01:02:31.240 You know, he said he was going to elect a woman or run with a woman.

01:02:34.040 And she's a woman of color and so much the better.

01:02:37.260 And so she's a must do who he didn't really like because she called him a racist.

01:02:40.560 And now their relationship and the press coverage of her is reflecting it.

01:02:45.120 Megan, I'm going to share something with you and only those those few people who are listening right now.

01:02:50.100 It'll probably be embarrassing for me, but I think it's just a useful indicator of the career trajectory of Kamala Harris.

01:02:56.260 So I was at the Democratic Convention in Charlotte back in 2012.

01:03:00.500 And at that point, Kamala Harris was the California State Attorney General.

01:03:04.940 And she was seen as a rising star.

01:03:06.960 And she only spoke for like five to ten minutes there.

01:03:09.140 But I was like, wow, there is the next Obama.

01:03:12.380 She's half African-American, half Indian-American.

01:03:14.640 She's a woman.

01:03:15.400 She's a prosecutor.

01:03:16.340 She's got it all.

01:03:17.800 Great.

01:03:18.120 We're going to be dealing with another Obama clone, except feminine this time for another.

01:03:23.520 And then once she got to the Senate, if you go back, you watch that speech.

01:03:27.520 It was a perfectly fine, very impressive five to ten minute remarks.

01:03:31.620 And then somewhere along the line, by the time she got to the Senate, she had lost whatever charm that she had had.

01:03:37.960 Or maybe she just wore out her welcome.

01:03:39.400 Maybe what she had was five to ten minutes of good material.

01:03:42.080 And then once you've heard it over and over again, she always feels like she's a kindergarten teacher speaking to the slow kids.

01:03:48.660 Hello, everybody.

01:03:50.740 We are going to talk about the law today.

01:03:53.980 You know, this inadvertently condescending tone when she isn't getting into the fortune cookie Hallmark card.

01:04:00.620 You know, we are the ones who are the ones that we have been looking for the we, you know, this is like verbal circle that she ends up going in.

01:04:08.340 Which is it's been very interesting to watch.

01:04:10.420 I mean, the Biden presidency has not been really good for any of the Democrats.

01:04:15.280 It's certainly not like it's her approval rating is actually lower than Biden's.

01:04:19.620 And the interesting thing is, is that you mentioned the New York Times coverage and political coverage.

01:04:23.340 It talks about will the Democrats be running Biden in 2024?

01:04:26.860 You don't see a lot of people saying, oh, it's automatically going to be Kamala Harris.

01:04:31.620 This is not a question.

01:04:33.660 I mean, look, there's a reason Gavin Newsom is running ads in Florida.

01:04:36.440 There's a reason J.B. Pritzker is doing events in New Hampshire and Iowa and places like that.

01:04:42.400 All of these guys are just waiting for the opportunity to fall into their laps for Democrats to say, OK, Biden's too old.

01:04:49.100 Harris, we have no faith in jump ball.

01:04:51.340 Who wants it?

01:04:51.960 And all these guys are kind of elbowing it to be in position to get it if the opportunity arises.

01:04:57.040 Mm hmm.

01:04:57.560 By the way, before I can't move on from her meeting on Dobbs and her obsession with identity without pointing to yet another attendee there who this is how this is.

01:05:07.060 I mean, you go to a Democrat gathering now, not any normal Democrat, but like woke Democrats.

01:05:11.280 And this is what you're going to be subjected to.

01:05:13.100 This is thought seven.

01:05:15.240 Thank you.

01:05:16.240 Thank you, Madam Vice President.

01:05:18.380 My pronouns are she, her.

01:05:20.060 I'm a white woman with long brown hair.

01:05:22.440 I'm wearing red, a red dress and I'm wearing a see-through mask so you can see my red lips.

01:05:29.540 Oh, my God.

01:05:31.320 See-through mask so you can see my red lips.

01:05:33.580 OK, then you're not mask compliant, lady.

01:05:35.960 I mean, this is this is how they are.

01:05:38.420 Like, shut up.

01:05:39.340 And you know what?

01:05:40.240 I bet she'd do that even if there weren't blind people in the room, Jim.

01:05:43.160 That's how it is now.

01:05:44.640 It feels almost like a e-network red carpet, right?

01:05:49.060 So what are you wearing?

01:05:50.240 You know, this kind of this bizarre describe.

01:05:52.660 Well, who's the designer?

01:05:54.000 What size is it?

01:05:54.980 All kinds of, you know.

01:05:56.540 Do we know that?

01:05:57.640 I don't know.

01:05:58.140 You're going to cross over to the place where people start to get offended.

01:06:00.420 Like, you can see my luscious red lips through my mask and they're wet and they're plump.

01:06:06.260 Like, whoa, taking it to a weird place, lady.

01:06:10.720 OK, so.

01:06:12.400 I do want to talk about Gavin Newsom because there was a recent I'm trying to remember whether

01:06:16.380 it was Turning Points.

01:06:17.740 Yeah, it was Turning Points, which is a conservative group for young people.

01:06:22.320 And they did a straw poll of their attendees at this recent Florida summit that they had

01:06:26.880 asking, who who are you most worried about on the Dem side?

01:06:30.320 You'll be shocked to learn it wasn't Kamala Harris.

01:06:33.400 Certainly wasn't Joe Biden.

01:06:34.580 It was indeed Gavin Newsom.

01:06:36.660 And I've been hearing a lot of talk about him, too, just in my own social circles.

01:06:41.180 You know, this guy a year ago, we were dealing with a recall election on him.

01:06:44.800 Now his popularity has surged in California when he was governor lockdown, keeping California

01:06:51.460 is basically in prison in their own homes.

01:06:53.380 His approval ratings fell.

01:06:55.020 That was one of the things that factored into the recall.

01:06:57.060 And now suddenly it's like the state has forgotten that because he's got good hair and

01:07:01.040 he's decided to take aim at Governor DeSantis down in Florida.

01:07:03.660 So how do you like his chances of replacing Biden and Harris on the Democratic ticket next

01:07:09.580 go round and his chances?

01:07:11.600 I mean, like, could this far, far left Democrat actually win a general election in the United

01:07:18.420 States of America?

01:07:19.160 It would be an unusual set of circumstances.

01:07:22.840 But you look at our last few presidents and they've all been pretty unusual and unexpected

01:07:27.180 choices to end up in the Oval Office.

01:07:29.720 You know, if by some, you know, crazy sequence of events, Gavin Newsom ends up the Democratic

01:07:34.480 nominee.

01:07:35.440 I'm sure you would see Republican, you know, attack ad operatives saying, oh, my God, we've

01:07:39.380 got so much to work with here.

01:07:40.800 We've got the French laundry incident where he was, you know, dining inside when he had banned

01:07:45.160 it for everybody else.

01:07:46.740 He's a child of privilege for the very close ties to the very wealthy Getty family out there.

01:07:52.800 There are other California progressives who are members of minority groups who look at

01:07:58.080 him as basically, you know, Gavin Newsom is everything they said Mitt Romney was back

01:08:03.120 in 2012.

01:08:04.440 This child of privilege, this guy who's basically had every office handed to him on a silver

01:08:08.420 platter.

01:08:09.820 Extremely wealthy, well-connected, you know, and so there are, you know, supporters of

01:08:14.680 other Democrats who are like, why does this guy get this free pass on this sort of thing?

01:08:18.380 And in a general election, he wouldn't have this.

01:08:20.460 But I think the most like there's a part of me that would actually like to see a, say,

01:08:24.200 Ron DeSantis versus Gavin Newsom presidential race.

01:08:27.640 One, because we'd have two non-geriatric options.

01:08:30.760 But second, I think I really love the idea of here is the Florida vision for what American

01:08:36.180 life should be.

01:08:37.120 And here's the California vision for what America life should be.

01:08:40.280 And I think that you look at California, it has been run by Democrats for a very long

01:08:45.860 time, but you can argue Arnold Schwarzenegger back in 2003 or so, but basically he was not

01:08:51.840 terribly far for the right.

01:08:53.400 And I would look at California and it's, you know, wide variety of problems, crime, homelessness,

01:08:59.200 extraordinary economic inequality, people being priced out of their homes and their houses,

01:09:04.020 an extraordinarily high cost of living, fights between agriculture and business and environmental

01:09:10.040 regulation, all these different things.

01:09:12.060 Look, if you're wealthy, California is a great place to live.

01:09:14.320 Everybody loves the weather, everybody, the beautiful coastline, all these great natural

01:09:17.780 resources.

01:09:18.900 And some of these are resources that cannot be transferred to another state.

01:09:21.940 You can't move California Central Valley farms.

01:09:24.720 You cannot move a hydroelectric plant.

01:09:27.000 But you are seeing more and more, for example, film production moving up to Vancouver.

01:09:30.680 However, California's tax environment is just not competitive for this sort of stuff.

01:09:34.880 Big tech moving out of Silicon Valley, some of it went up to Seattle, which is not that

01:09:38.800 much better, but a lot of it, the old joke, the joke that everybody seems to be moving

01:09:42.240 to Austin, right?

01:09:43.620 There is this recognition that California was this vision for the way things ought to, the

01:09:48.300 way people ought to live.

01:09:49.720 And yet there's this minor, minor issue that nobody can afford to live there.

01:09:53.740 Well, that's a big catch, you know, when it comes to this vision of what California is

01:09:57.780 supposed to be in the California dream.

01:09:59.900 And I think a Ron DeSantis type could make an argument.

01:10:02.740 Other than the fact that nothing works, your state is doing great.

01:10:06.040 You know, Miami is the new Silicon Valley.

01:10:08.420 It's anarchy in the streets.

01:10:09.080 And there's, you know, human feces on the streets of San Francisco.

01:10:12.520 Other than that, it's great.

01:10:13.940 And you have this kind of a sense of where Florida always seems to lead the country and

01:10:18.000 people relocating to it because they know low tax or really no state income tax, a very

01:10:23.340 low tax rate, a very dynamic economy, great weather if you look past the hurricanes.

01:10:29.040 You don't have to shovel the snow.

01:10:30.680 You know, this is kind of this dynamism, this excitement there.

01:10:34.940 And I think that, look, I think for the conservatives, this would be like probably, you know, here's

01:10:38.560 our vision of what America ought to be and what America could be under our philosophy versus

01:10:43.560 theirs.

01:10:44.020 And I think that would work out pretty darn well for conservatives.

01:10:45.960 But of course, the big challenge for, well, we know what the big challenge is on the Republican

01:10:49.180 side.

01:10:49.440 They've got a sitting Democrat as president who won't say he's not running.

01:10:53.040 And then they've got a black woman in the vice presidency in a, you know, grew a party

01:10:58.180 that's obsessed with identity.

01:10:59.300 So it'd be really tough to toss her aside for a white guy out in California, some white

01:11:04.760 rich guy nonetheless.

01:11:06.820 I mean, so I'll have to deal with that.

01:11:07.980 Because I live by the sword, die by the sword.

01:11:10.400 You know, if Biden chooses, she's the answer where she said she was definitely running.

01:11:15.640 And then she said, if Biden runs, she'll be running as his running mate.

01:11:18.780 I think Harris would be better off if she simply said, you bet I'm going to run if Biden isn't

01:11:24.640 running.

01:11:25.040 I am the heir apparent.

01:11:26.100 I'm a heartbeat away.

01:11:27.420 And anybody who Democrat who wants to try to take this from me is welcome to try.

01:11:31.320 I will, you know, whoop their behind in Democratic primary.

01:11:34.660 By the way, I don't know if she would.

01:11:36.560 But I think the, you know, the way she talks about it, she talks about it scared as if she

01:11:41.140 had, say, flamed out in the 2020 Democratic primary, which she did.

01:11:44.120 She knows she can't do it.

01:11:45.300 She's always been, you know, more appealing in theory than in practice.

01:11:50.500 OK, but on the GOP side, and I know a lot of Republicans are excited about Ron DeSantis,

01:11:55.220 not to mention, you know, the other conservatives who are likely to run.

01:11:58.300 But, you know, you've got the 800 pound gorilla and the gorilla keeps saying, I've made my decision.

01:12:04.100 He just keeps taunting, titillating, you know, teasing.

01:12:07.080 He can't say it too early, but it seems very, very clear that Trump is going to run.

01:12:11.760 And so, OK, Trump will run.

01:12:13.520 I don't think DeSantis will be scared out of a primary against Trump.

01:12:16.280 I think DeSantis thinks he's got enough momentum on his own.

01:12:18.760 And I just heard about some other fundraisers he was doing on the down low with some very,

01:12:22.520 very rich people who on the Republican side who would like to back him.

01:12:25.800 So he's not going to step aside.

01:12:27.060 I don't think he will.

01:12:27.960 And that means how do the Republicans win?

01:12:30.840 Because even if DeSantis gets the nomination, what, Trump's going to go quietly away?

01:12:35.020 He's he's just going to say, OK, I lost.

01:12:37.900 And it's DeSantis is.

01:12:39.500 And now I'll back him.

01:12:40.880 Oh, sure.

01:12:41.180 That sounds just like him.

01:12:42.660 He'll run as an independent.

01:12:44.200 He'll be a spoiler.

01:12:45.360 He'll do to the Republican race what he did to Georgia and the Senate.

01:12:49.560 So is and yet if Trump gets the nomination, he's fraught.

01:12:55.280 You know, he yes, he's the strongest in a lot of ways, but he's also the weakest in a

01:12:58.380 lot of ways.

01:12:58.780 He's a lot of baggage that some of these other guys don't have.

01:13:00.900 So it's it's a very tough situation for the Republicans when we're talking presidential

01:13:05.500 politics.

01:13:06.140 Forget 2022.

01:13:07.160 I'm talking 24.

01:13:08.820 Yeah, no, I was going to say that it is very my guess is if DeSantis were to win the Republican

01:13:15.100 nomination in 2024, I expect Trump would respond to it the same way he responded to the 2020

01:13:21.700 general election.

01:13:23.000 Well, I really want the vote.

01:13:24.960 There were Venezuelan hackers.

01:13:27.340 There was bamboo in the ballots used in Arizona.

01:13:31.240 Look what Sidney Powell says.

01:13:32.620 Look what Lin Wood says.

01:13:34.000 You know, he never you can never lose legitimate.

01:13:36.800 And yeah, the possibility of him running spoiler a third party or something like that does seem

01:13:40.780 pretty likely.

01:13:41.860 I do think there is a chance that, you know, that might make certain that there are certain

01:13:47.500 diehard Trump supporters who will never advance that.

01:13:49.380 But I think if he basically looked like he was about to torpedo a successful Republican

01:13:55.440 presidential bid against Biden, against Harris, against Newsom, against someone else who would

01:14:01.080 be four more years of this, this high inflation, this open border, all the problems the country is

01:14:07.600 experiencing right now, I think that would get a lot of Trump supporters really mad at him if the

01:14:12.320 perception is that Ron DeSantis had won it fair and square.

01:14:14.720 I don't know.

01:14:15.300 I don't know if you're right.

01:14:17.580 I've never been a Trump supporter, but I know a lot of Republicans who voted for him twice.

01:14:21.660 And their attitude is, you know what?

01:14:23.800 You know, I'm glad for what he did.

01:14:25.740 I'm glad for the Supreme Court nominees that he put forth.

01:14:28.420 I'm glad for the tax cuts, increased defense spending.

01:14:31.200 But you know what?

01:14:32.000 We've got to focus on what the here and now.

01:14:33.940 And he lost in 2020.

01:14:35.320 He looks like a maniac.

01:14:36.640 He keeps ranting about all these crazy conspiracy theories.

01:14:39.080 We got to get Biden out of there and we can't let, you know, somebody's ego get in the way

01:14:43.340 of this.

01:14:44.020 So I don't.

01:14:45.080 And also that we've seen polls here and there indicating that DeSantis is, you know, competitive.

01:14:50.940 I think it'll be.

01:14:52.360 I think there's a certain number of Republicans out there who are who voted for Trump twice,

01:14:55.940 but who want to be just want to move on, just want to.

01:14:59.700 OK, but wait, let me interrupt you.

01:15:01.080 Let me let me.

01:15:01.860 I know I know you're right, but that's almost beside the point.

01:15:05.280 The question is whether there's a large enough segment that's diehard Trump only that would

01:15:10.860 spoil the Republicans chances, no matter who it is, if it's not named Trump, if he's not

01:15:14.860 named Trump.

01:15:15.440 It's not about whether lots of Republicans don't want Trump.

01:15:18.080 It's about is the is the diehard Trump faction big enough to ruin it if the GOP selects somebody

01:15:24.900 other than Trump.

01:15:25.960 And I'll just give you just a couple of small anecdotal things.

01:15:28.000 But my assistant, Abby, she's like my little sister and my assistant all in one.

01:15:31.560 She was traveling down, basically driving south on the on the eastern seaboard with her husband

01:15:37.780 and came to this little town and she sent me the signs all over.

01:15:43.100 They've labeled themselves Trump town, Trump ice cream, Trump hot dogs, Trump everything

01:15:49.440 like he's not even running.

01:15:51.220 He's that he hasn't been president in a couple of years like this.

01:15:54.100 Because this group is not going to back Ron DeSantis.

01:15:58.700 And when Trump says he cheated, it was rigged.

01:16:03.020 They are going to believe him the same way as they have believed everything that he has

01:16:08.540 said because they trust him.

01:16:09.920 It's it's a it's a special relationship.

01:16:13.020 I mean, the guy here on the Jersey Shore, whose store I've gone into and I've talked

01:16:17.400 about this on the air, you go into his store and literally he has like F Joe Biden flags

01:16:25.100 all over the store and let's go, Brandon everywhere.

01:16:28.080 And like how you need to buy your guns now.

01:16:30.320 And like, I mean, no, never.

01:16:33.020 There's not going to be a Ron DeSantis for these people.

01:16:36.380 So I I see ruination and despair on the Dem side and I can see it coming on the GOP side,

01:16:42.600 too.

01:16:44.020 Yes, the forecast is indeed cloudy with a chance of ruination and despair heading into

01:16:48.720 2025 and beyond the phenomenon you're describing on there about those southern towns.

01:16:52.440 It's not just the south.

01:16:53.520 I would say I was in Bucks County shortly before election.

01:16:56.140 That's in Pennsylvania shortly before Election Day 2020.

01:16:59.280 And I was traveling with my wife and my kids as if you think they're celebrating a holiday

01:17:03.500 called Trumpmas because everyone's got not just the yard sign.

01:17:07.100 They've got the yard sign and the flag and the thin blue line flag.

01:17:11.220 And, you know, one person had, you know, the hat on the doorstop.

01:17:15.860 I mean, it just was every single indicator.

01:17:19.600 I am a Trump voter.

01:17:20.980 You know, it probably makes it very easy for the get out of the vote crowd.

01:17:23.860 OK, that one we can count on.

01:17:25.000 We don't need to worry about that guy at all.

01:17:27.360 I do think.

01:17:29.080 Yes, you are correct.

01:17:29.940 The one thing that I kind of wonder could be at play.

01:17:32.760 You know, this is well down the road here.

01:17:33.980 So as we got close to Election Day 2016, closer to Election Day 2020, people who had had all

01:17:39.460 kinds of problems with Trump looked at the prospect of four years of Hillary Clinton or

01:17:43.840 they looked at the prospect of four years of Joe Biden.

01:17:46.300 They held their nose and they said, you know what?

01:17:48.220 I want Supreme Court justices who are going to overturn Roe versus Wade.

01:17:51.940 I want folks to you know, I want I know what I want.

01:17:54.880 Trump's going to give me a lot of a bunch of what I want.

01:17:57.160 I get nothing if I vote for that.

01:17:58.700 And I don't want to vote third party or independent or write in somebody.

01:18:03.080 I do wonder if it comes down to Ron DeSantis versus somebody else.

01:18:07.260 How many of those Trump voters who've got the flag, who've been in all kind of stuff

01:18:10.320 and they know in the end that it's basically, you know, do you want DeSantis or do you want

01:18:14.640 either four more years of Biden or four years of Kamala Harris or four years of Gavin Newsom

01:18:19.500 or some other Democrat?

01:18:20.380 I mean, they're all going to be liberal progressivism in one form, one variety of flavor or another.

01:18:25.120 I get your point.

01:18:25.920 I wonder, but you have to factor in looking at that four years.

01:18:29.820 I get it.

01:18:30.140 I get it.

01:18:30.560 I get it.

01:18:31.000 I get it.

01:18:31.340 But you have to factor in Trump nonstop.

01:18:34.280 He's a loser.

01:18:35.440 He's been a loser for a long time.

01:18:37.380 He look what he did.

01:18:38.340 You know, like that's how Trump is.

01:18:40.640 You think he's going to be any kinder to a DeSantis or a Ted Cruz or whoever it is?

01:18:44.620 I don't know.

01:18:45.220 It could be.

01:18:45.480 Not at all.

01:18:45.860 But I do think that there's a difference between the Trump of this era, let's say,

01:18:50.300 post January 6th than previous ones.

01:18:52.300 And one of the things that look Trump, for whatever his flaws in 2016, he was talking

01:18:56.100 about the wall.

01:18:57.180 He was talking about jobs being shipped overseas.

01:18:59.000 He was talking about concerns that were, you know, on the on the minds of lots of kitchen

01:19:03.420 all people are talking about around kitchen tables all across the country.

01:19:07.360 Now Trump talks about 2020.

01:19:08.900 I don't say quite exclusively, but clearly that is his biggest issue.

01:19:12.260 That's true.

01:19:12.700 What most of his social media.

01:19:14.340 And it's really about do you believe what they did to me?

01:19:17.620 Can you believe what an injustice this is to me?

01:19:20.080 How they stole the election from me?

01:19:21.940 You know, it's very self.

01:19:23.260 It's very past focused and it's very personal focus.

01:19:26.100 It's not focused on here's what I'm going to do to save your family from the ravages

01:19:30.120 of inflation, et cetera, et cetera.

01:19:32.160 Hmm.

01:19:32.720 Well, an interesting dynamic with Trump right now is he's attacking Nancy Pelosi for going

01:19:36.960 to Taiwan.

01:19:37.800 And so is Joe Biden.

01:19:40.820 They're agreeing on something, Jim.

01:19:43.060 National Review, where Jim works, is on Pelosi's side.

01:19:47.280 My head's going to explode like all the weird alliances are fractured and unclear.

01:19:53.620 And that's where we will pick it up right after this quick break.

01:19:56.900 More with the one and only Jim Garrity.

01:20:02.240 So now we get the news that Nancy Pelosi will go to Taiwan on her trip overseas.

01:20:07.220 And she was asked not to do it by the by the president.

01:20:11.420 Top Democrats came out and said, don't.

01:20:13.280 And reportedly, even the Pentagon said, please, please don't.

01:20:16.620 We have a policy with respect to China and Taiwan of strategic ambiguity where we're not

01:20:22.540 supposed to really say what we want and kind of stay out of it.

01:20:25.880 But everybody knows we don't want China to take over Taiwan, invade Taiwan, even though

01:20:31.360 the president has explicitly said, if you invade Taiwan, we're going to back them militarily,

01:20:35.240 which is not so ambiguous.

01:20:36.780 OK, so she says, I'm doing it.

01:20:39.360 And I actually didn't know about her history, actually going to Tiananmen Square shortly

01:20:44.280 after it happened and like speaking up for human rights.

01:20:47.500 So good on her for that.

01:20:49.280 And I'm I'm kind of inclined to side with you guys.

01:20:53.140 I'm like, why shouldn't she go?

01:20:55.120 Like, why should we be letting the Chinese tell our speaker of the house, whatever you

01:21:00.060 think of Nancy, where she can and cannot travel with a congressional delegation?

01:21:04.460 We're the United States of America.

01:21:05.640 Like, shut up, sit down, we'll do what we want.

01:21:09.460 But then I don't want another war.

01:21:11.180 And China's a little nuts.

01:21:13.120 And they do very provocative things when you upset them.

01:21:16.220 I don't know.

01:21:17.080 So why did you guys side on on the in the place of she should go?

01:21:22.860 Sure.

01:21:23.280 Well, it's worth noting.

01:21:24.480 None of us are used to being in the position of praising Nancy Pelosi.

01:21:28.080 Right.

01:21:28.480 And I was kind of struck by I went through the comments on my piece.

01:21:31.540 I know people say never read the comments, but I often do.

01:21:33.520 And, you know, we have a very right of center, conservative readership.

01:21:36.780 And all of them kind of had this same tone of I can't believe I'm saying this, but go,

01:21:41.060 Nancy, go.

01:21:42.180 The editors did put forth an editorial that said Nancy Pelosi must go to Taiwan.

01:21:47.620 And no, it did not say underneath and stay there.

01:21:51.100 We are kind of in this this bizarre.

01:21:53.420 And I think it is fair to ask.

01:21:55.820 I've seen this from Alapundit over at Hot Air and a couple other commentators, which are

01:21:59.760 basically in the vein of what do we get out of this?

01:22:02.800 It's very clear what Nancy Pelosi gets out of this.

01:22:04.900 No House speaker has been traveled to Taiwan since Newt Gingrich back in the 1990s.

01:22:10.220 And, you know, she probably almost certainly is not going to be speaker starting in January

01:22:14.080 next year.

01:22:15.220 So if she wants to not quite make history, but have this as a capstone to her career as

01:22:20.300 speaker of the House, I think most of us would say, fine, she should go do that.

01:22:23.840 At minimum, once she decides I'm going to says I'm going to do this and China says, oh,

01:22:28.300 no, no, no, you better not.

01:22:29.740 And they even some of the more hyperbolic and hyperactive state propagandists say, well,

01:22:35.060 you know, if she goes, it's seen as she'll be traveling on a military plane.

01:22:38.280 That's a military U.S.

01:22:39.620 military attack on Chinese territory and, you know, frothing at the mouth and all that.

01:22:45.240 By the way, the Chinese military has said we're going to be doing some defense drills

01:22:48.440 in that area.

01:22:49.140 Just to jump in, one Chinese commentator said we'll have the right to shoot it down.

01:22:54.060 So, I mean, that was just a commentator.

01:22:55.460 It wasn't the actual government, but it is state run TV.

01:22:57.640 So go ahead.

01:22:58.380 That person doesn't set policy.

01:23:00.280 But between that and the Chinese military saying, well, we'll be doing exercises in the

01:23:04.180 area.

01:23:05.120 The chances of Nancy Pelosi's plane getting shot down, they're not high, but it's greater

01:23:09.820 than zero.

01:23:10.280 So beyond everything else, Nancy Pelosi, good for you for exhibiting a certain amount of physical

01:23:16.400 courage and bravery making this trip.

01:23:19.260 But I think as you kind of alluded to there, Megan, it's absolutely, once China says you

01:23:22.860 can't do this, we have to say, yes, we can.

01:23:26.040 We're a sovereign country.

01:23:27.060 We make our own decisions about where our elected leaders wish to go.

01:23:31.300 They do not have a right to blockade or to attack those flights or anything like that.

01:23:35.240 I don't think China is going to shoot at the plane.

01:23:38.280 Dear God, that would be a terrible escalation if it did.

01:23:41.040 I think they'll probably find some other way to rattle the saber and or mess with U.S.

01:23:48.860 in one form or another.

01:23:51.760 After COVID-19, what are they going to do to us that could be that much worse?

01:23:55.020 Sometimes I feel like.

01:23:56.700 But all in all, look, once they made this an issue, well, then we can't back down.

01:24:01.400 Otherwise, I think it was, there were some Democrats who told Nancy Pelosi not to go.

01:24:05.140 But one of the Senate Democrats who said she should, Robert Menendez of New Jersey, another

01:24:10.580 guy I'm not used to praising, said that once China gets a veto over whether U.S.

01:24:15.500 officials can visit or not, well, then they do control Taiwan.

01:24:18.700 And then the next question is, so what happens if they say, don't send U.S.

01:24:22.000 diplomats to Taiwan?

01:24:23.120 Don't send U.S.

01:24:24.640 commercial flights to Taiwan?

01:24:26.200 One of the more intriguing options, by the way, was the suggestion that Nancy Pelosi should

01:24:29.940 travel to Taiwan on a commercial flight.

01:24:33.640 That that way it's not a U.S. military flight.

01:24:36.040 You don't give the Chinese any excuse to declare that that's a provocation or something like

01:24:40.520 that.

01:24:41.040 But I think once, you know, Pelosi says she's going there and China says, no, you can't.

01:24:45.540 You have to.

01:24:46.140 Otherwise, we're basically saying that China can bully us out of doing things that we

01:24:49.740 want.

01:24:50.220 And I'm pleased to hear that as of this conversation, sounds like she's going there, and that the

01:24:55.700 Biden administration, which has said, no, no, this isn't worth it.

01:24:58.140 Don't bother.

01:24:59.280 I think it was a terrible stance for Biden to take.

01:25:01.080 He had apparently this long conversation with Xi Jinping, you know, a couple of days ago

01:25:06.000 for him to have a talk with the Chinese leader and then say to Pelosi, don't go.

01:25:10.260 Boy, it makes him look like, you know, an errand boy for the Chinese or something.

01:25:14.440 It makes it sound like China is dictating terms and we're accepting them.

01:25:18.360 So I don't think this is going to escalate into World War Three.

01:25:21.540 If I'm wrong, then as we all die in a fireball, you can tell me I was wrong.

01:25:28.440 You can say, see, I told you so.

01:25:30.520 But all in all, I think this is, you know, it is a demonstration of whether we are a sovereign

01:25:36.120 country and whether we can visit allied nations.

01:25:40.140 Yes.

01:25:40.440 But I think the other point this illustrates is that strategic ambiguity was never a particularly

01:25:45.340 wise policy because it requires us to pretend, oh, there's one China.

01:25:49.200 Yeah, we're just not going to say which one it is.

01:25:51.680 And I think everyone can kind of recognize that if this policy ever had a usefulness,

01:25:56.080 it doesn't work with a more aggressive and bellicose China that we are seeing under Xi

01:26:01.680 Jinping.

01:26:02.420 No, it sounded like the Chinese leader threatened us a bit on that phone call.

01:26:06.820 Like, be careful.

01:26:07.680 I can't remember what the threat was.

01:26:08.560 It was something to the effect of, you know, play with the big dogs.

01:26:11.700 You're going to get bitten.

01:26:12.400 Something my team will remind me.

01:26:13.980 But it was fairly, you know, it was a fairly innocuous threat, but coming from him, maybe

01:26:18.960 not so much.

01:26:19.820 And then Joe Biden said, don't do it.

01:26:21.700 And it reminded me of something of all people.

01:26:24.160 Andrew Schultz, the comedian who was hilarious, was on the show a couple of Fridays ago.

01:26:28.120 And he said he wasn't exactly a Trump fan, but he could appreciate aspects of Trump.

01:26:32.900 And he said, you know, like, I loved it.

01:26:34.640 I think it was like the G20 when he when you see you saw Trump emerging from behind all

01:26:38.960 these no name world leaders who'd never no one's ever seen and no one would ever recognize

01:26:43.500 on sight.

01:26:44.020 It's like shoving them out of the way, like hand on the shoulder, shoving them back,

01:26:47.580 shoving that one back and putting himself the front.

01:26:49.240 And he was like, yeah, we're the United States of America.

01:26:52.300 F that we're going the front, you know, step aside.

01:26:55.720 And in a way, this is kind of like that moment.

01:26:59.100 I mean, Biden didn't get the memo, but I can I can also see that whole crowd that's been

01:27:04.500 very, very anti our involvement or our assistance to Ukraine saying, why poke the bear?

01:27:11.600 You know, we got enough conflicts going on.

01:27:13.720 This is not our fight between Taiwan and China.

01:27:16.260 You know, just keep your nose clean.

01:27:18.380 America first.

01:27:19.040 We got our own problems to worry about.

01:27:21.920 Yeah, I mean, my first question for everyone was, oh, it's not our fight.

01:27:24.420 What does it matter?

01:27:24.960 Where does your stuff in your cell phone come from?

01:27:27.780 You know, Taiwan is really important for chips.

01:27:30.380 And we just passed legislation because of the great chip shortage and things like that.

01:27:35.340 Look, I think I cannot help but strongly suspect that the bellicose tone we see from China,

01:27:43.680 it'd be hard.

01:27:44.360 Could it if Trump had been reelected?

01:27:46.240 Would they be taking the same stance?

01:27:47.600 Possibly.

01:27:48.420 But I have a tough time believing China didn't watch the withdrawal from Afghanistan and didn't

01:27:52.880 watch the, well, it's only a minor incursion, Biden's statement about Russia and Ukraine

01:27:56.980 and various other statements were basically, you know, Biden's saying, we're going to make

01:28:01.700 Saudi Arabia into a pariah.

01:28:03.440 And then, you know, after two years of higher oil prices, he heads over to Riyadh and does

01:28:07.780 the fist bump.

01:28:08.820 And, you know, there's a, I do, I strongly suspect that in a lot of world capitals, Joe

01:28:13.500 Biden is seen as a pushover.

01:28:15.220 I mentioned his age.

01:28:16.360 I mentioned the sense that he's always kind of been a weathervane with whatever his party

01:28:21.040 wanted.

01:28:21.840 And I just kind of think that they look at this guy as somebody who they can intimidate,

01:28:26.460 who they can, you know, he's got a plate full of problems and low approval ratings and,

01:28:32.120 you know, heading into midterms.

01:28:33.740 The last thing Joe Biden wants is another conflict, another problem.

01:28:36.960 And it's the sense that, you know, Joe Biden will do whatever it takes to get along these

01:28:40.860 days.

01:28:41.520 I think, unfortunately, if this worked, I'd be more open to it.

01:28:45.340 I think the lesson you saw in the Biden went to Riyadh, you know, he says he brought up

01:28:52.560 the Khashoggi murder.

01:28:54.380 The Saudis said that he did not, which is, you know, troubling.

01:28:57.040 And this general sense that the Saudis basically rolled up because they said, oh, we'll, we'll

01:29:01.680 rate, we'll, we'll speak up for you at the next OPEC meeting.

01:29:04.580 And now it sounds like there's going to be an increase in production.

01:29:06.880 Meanwhile, we bent the knee and, and, and bumped the fist.

01:29:10.020 Yeah.

01:29:10.220 The exact quote is, according to Politico, she warned Biden that the U.S.

01:29:14.640 must abide, must abide by its quote, one China policy, adding quote, those who play with

01:29:19.880 fire will eventually get burned.

01:29:22.120 OK, so that's where it stands.

01:29:24.740 She's supposed to spend one night there.

01:29:27.260 And I trust in the military, which is taking her there to protect Nancy Pelosi and make

01:29:32.500 sure she comes back safely.

01:29:34.140 But you never know what the Chinese, you know, or they're going to lie and wait.

01:29:36.840 They're going to do something to her when she gets back.

01:29:38.440 I mean, it is a risk.

01:29:39.380 There's no question.

01:29:40.000 And so we have to keep our eyes on it.

01:29:42.840 Let me shift gears and spend the limited time we have left on media.

01:29:46.300 OK, because I know you talk about it a lot.

01:29:48.760 And the media messaging, we started with Peter Schiff on, are we in a recession?

01:29:52.880 Yes, we are, according to Peter.

01:29:54.720 But according to the Biden administration, we're not.

01:29:56.300 And according to the media, we're not.

01:29:57.760 So the media goes along.

01:29:58.680 The media, you remember when we used to be watchdogs and truth tellers and skeptics, and

01:30:02.580 we didn't just go along with whatever messaging we got from a Democratic White House in particular.

01:30:06.900 Listen to them now.

01:30:09.400 My team put together about a butted soundbite of them parroting, parroting exactly these

01:30:15.540 Democratic talking points.

01:30:16.580 Listen.

01:30:18.000 A lot of people think that, oh, if you have two consecutive quarters of GDP declines, that

01:30:23.140 in and of itself is a recession.

01:30:25.560 No, that's that's not the definition.

01:30:27.720 One way that people define a recession is not the official definition of a recession.

01:30:33.440 That's why the U.S. economy is not technically in a recession right now.

01:30:36.340 We're looking at this and we're hearing about recession.

01:30:38.800 It's almost like a buzzword now.

01:30:40.840 You know, we're all talking about a recession.

01:30:42.280 I think we need to be talking about a reset.

01:30:44.060 That we should all be very careful about even using the word recession.

01:30:47.160 You can't really even officially use that until the National Bureau of Economic Research

01:30:50.740 declares it a recession.

01:30:52.400 That if you say it too loudly, people start to worry.

01:30:54.520 Are we in a recession?

01:30:55.640 And does the term matter?

01:30:56.580 No, we aren't.

01:30:59.600 And no, it doesn't.

01:31:00.640 It, in fact, is not a recession in any technical sense.

01:31:05.320 Wow.

01:31:06.060 Pretty amazing.

01:31:06.920 Paul Gregman of The New York Times there at the end.

01:31:08.380 No, it doesn't matter.

01:31:09.480 It doesn't matter.

01:31:09.960 We're not.

01:31:10.360 Anyway.

01:31:11.640 You know, the first thing when they say, well, you can't really tell if it's really a recession

01:31:16.240 unless you hear from the National Bureau of Economic Research.

01:31:18.740 Okay, in December 2008, you know, Lehman Brothers, Wall Street crash, beginning of the Great

01:31:25.240 Recession, the NBER looked at it and said, oh, you know what?

01:31:29.340 We had one and it started in January.

01:31:31.600 We actually peaked, or February, right?

01:31:33.520 The economy peaked in January and we've actually been in a recession for 11 months.

01:31:38.160 So the NBER can take nearly a year to actually make its official declaration.

01:31:43.060 So those of us who are living in the now and who can't wait a year will have that sense

01:31:49.400 of, oh, actually, the other thing is when they say, oh, it's not the official definition.

01:31:53.480 I think to the average American, the term recession is basically a synonym for economic

01:31:57.080 bad times.

01:31:58.420 And so if you ask people, are you going through economic bad times?

01:32:00.740 They'd probably say, hell yeah.

01:32:01.780 You know, if you looked at gas prices, have you looked at my grocery bill?

01:32:04.980 Have you looked at my rent?

01:32:05.900 Have you looked at my mortgage?

01:32:07.160 I don't even get me started on my 401k.

01:32:09.180 It just got demolished.

01:32:09.980 Most people say, yeah, we're in economic rough times.

01:32:13.700 Now, is it unusual that we have low unemployment?

01:32:16.140 Yeah, that's kind of unusual.

01:32:17.740 This is a little bit different from what we're used to seeing during a recession.

01:32:22.140 But my colleague, Kevin Williamson, laid out this very good point.

01:32:26.800 You think, OK, well, it's not a recession because unemployment is low and things are

01:32:30.560 good for workers.

01:32:31.540 Well, wait a second.

01:32:32.420 American workers are working really hard.

01:32:34.080 They're working a lot of hours.

01:32:35.660 They're getting the take-home pay, but the take-home pay doesn't go as far because inflation

01:32:39.280 was 9.1%.

01:32:40.580 And oh, by the way, Kiplinger says we should expect it to be in the ballpark of 9% for

01:32:44.980 the rest of the year.

01:32:46.060 So if workers can't afford as much as they used to and they're working as many hours,

01:32:50.160 then how is this a thriving economic environment for workers?

01:32:53.840 It's not.

01:32:54.920 This is not a great economy.

01:32:56.580 If it was a great economy, we'd have the 5.6 million unemployed would be heading into

01:33:01.480 the 10.5 unfilled jobs right now.

01:33:03.420 We are, we've got this, all of our, you know, people will talk about the inflation and the

01:33:09.640 effect of, you know, oh my God, how much are you paying for gas?

01:33:12.600 People like will share on Facebook, at least in my neck of the woods in Northern Virginia,

01:33:16.300 I found a place that's less than $4 a gallon.

01:33:19.280 And they're like, oh, where was it?

01:33:20.240 Where was it?

01:33:20.660 Like it's, you know, people talk about driving 20 minutes out of their way to save a couple

01:33:24.500 of cents per gallon.

01:33:26.480 People exchange stories about grocery bills and how much, you know, oh my God, I went there

01:33:30.340 the other day and it was $45 just for one bag of groceries.

01:33:33.480 So this is something that people feel down to their bone marrow, right?

01:33:36.500 This is what people talk about.

01:33:38.820 So the idea that Paul Krugman can say, ah, I looked out my window and everything looks

01:33:41.800 fine.

01:33:42.320 You know, there's something, there's certain things you can spin the public on, but you

01:33:47.000 cannot Jedi mind trick them into say, believing that they're doing better than they actually

01:33:51.640 are.

01:33:52.180 And I just got to find it fascinating that you've had this, you know, rule of thumb, if you want

01:33:55.860 to say this commonplace definition that was used almost every other time for the last

01:33:59.940 40 some years.

01:34:01.120 But now all of a sudden that it's happening a couple of months before a midterm where

01:34:04.120 Democrats are expected to do badly.

01:34:06.020 Ah, it's just so, it's like one of those magic eye things, Megan.

01:34:09.180 You just can't see whether it actually is a recession.

01:34:12.120 It'll take us months to figure out if this is a recession.

01:34:15.000 Well, people know how they're doing.

01:34:15.960 They know they're not doing that well.

01:34:17.580 Well, I do worry that after the midterm elections, however they shake out, we're going to see,

01:34:23.460 who knows, maybe they're going to have to admit at that point that we're in a recession,

01:34:26.340 but we're going to see the COVID restrictions come back because we're going to be going

01:34:30.360 into the winter months and we're going to see more vaccine mandates resurrect and more

01:34:34.320 mask mandates resurrect.

01:34:36.200 And even if they lose, you know, the Democrats are going to be feeling empowered to push

01:34:40.080 these policies that they think are really popular, whether it's green energy or it's

01:34:43.600 COVID mandates or what have you, because they still control a lot of state houses and state

01:34:47.540 legislatures and so on.

01:34:48.500 They're not going to lose every position of power.

01:34:50.280 They are going to lose the house.

01:34:51.480 I don't think any reasonable person predicts otherwise the Senate less clear, but now we

01:34:57.340 see their messaging, Jim.

01:34:58.980 Roe versus Wade was not secure in the hands of Republican appointed Supreme Court justices.

01:35:06.560 Gun rights have been restored in a way that is threatening the very safety of the country.

01:35:12.600 The gay marriage could be in danger next.

01:35:15.380 Interracial marriage, all the nonsense that they've posited after Roe.

01:35:18.780 And on top of that, we've gotten built back better, also known as the Inflationary Relief

01:35:25.220 Act, tiny BBB passed.

01:35:27.840 And we've got the CHIPS Act passed where we're bringing semiconductor manufacturing back to

01:35:31.600 the United States.

01:35:32.580 And, you know, where we did all of our COVID relief and we're back like that is going to

01:35:36.520 be that's going to be the messaging going in what they do after concerns me.

01:35:40.300 But the messaging going in, you can't deny it's getting better for them.

01:35:44.200 It's getting better than it was six months ago.

01:35:46.120 So does this change your calculation on their chances with respect to the House and certainly

01:35:50.860 the Senate?

01:35:51.940 Yeah, I think it's entirely possible that when the last votes are counted in, you know,

01:35:57.400 in November, Democrats look kind of look around and say, ah, that wasn't so bad.

01:36:02.320 My suspicion is that, yes, Republicans will win the House.

01:36:05.660 You may not see a giant 40 seat swing like you're used to seeing in 2014, 2010, 1994, those

01:36:13.240 past Republican tsunami years, in part because Republicans are starting it just under parity.

01:36:18.420 They only need, I think it was six seats right now.

01:36:20.860 And the other point is that through redistricting, there are, there are, first of all, all the

01:36:24.540 low hanging fruit has pretty much been picked already.

01:36:27.040 And there just aren't that many competitive districts.

01:36:29.980 I've heard when Biden's approval rating is so low, I have a hard time believing you're

01:36:35.260 not going to see a significant amount of Republican gains.

01:36:37.500 But the question is, if they gain 20 seats, does that scene, is that, will that be seen

01:36:42.000 as a big win or will it be seen as something of a disappointment?

01:36:46.080 On the Senate, I'll be honest, I'm really worried.

01:36:48.580 I think you've got some seriously underperforming Republican candidates like Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania.

01:36:54.760 Herschel Walker in Georgia might get carried over to victory by the general economic state

01:37:00.320 of the country and people's worries and stuff.

01:37:02.160 But, you know, I don't think I'm offering any giant revelation that Walker has been

01:37:07.420 underwhelming as a candidate.

01:37:10.340 I have questions about J.D.

01:37:11.880 Vance, about his fundraising and whether he's going out and doing enough campaign events

01:37:15.840 and things like that.

01:37:16.720 I mean, every Republican candidate out there should be running like they're 10 points behind

01:37:20.660 and, you know, not counting on the national political environment, not counting on Biden's

01:37:25.920 low approval rating to get them elected.

01:37:28.060 And I hear from enough Republicans like that, I'm not seeing that.

01:37:30.500 These guys act like they're 10 points ahead and everything's going to be fine.

01:37:34.520 You know, will Democrats have a bad year?

01:37:37.260 Sure.

01:37:38.220 I do think things like the Roe v.

01:37:40.980 Wade will stir up the Democratic grassroots a little bit, get their enthusiasm up.

01:37:44.200 But really, I think Republicans could end up kicking themselves having a good year, but

01:37:48.480 one year that should have been much better.

01:37:50.720 Yeah, you can't can't take anything for granted.

01:37:53.380 And plus, we still have I think it's 99 days from today until the midterms kick off.

01:37:58.220 So anything could happen.

01:38:00.660 Jim Garrity, always a pleasure.

01:38:02.120 Thank you so much.

01:38:02.920 And again, great job last week.

01:38:04.360 If you haven't checked out the editors podcast, you are missing out because it's a great group

01:38:08.540 and in good hands being led by Jim Garrity last week.

01:38:11.820 Thank you, Megan.

01:38:13.220 Tomorrow, two of our favorites are joining us.

01:38:15.920 I feel like my team gave me a great lineup for my week back from vacay.

01:38:19.960 Victor Davis Hanson is with us.

01:38:21.980 He's so brilliant.

01:38:22.820 And he's like, with all due respect to all parties, he's the new Charles Krauthammer.

01:38:26.760 Like what he says, I just hold on to.

01:38:29.480 And I repeat it to myself and I think about it later.

01:38:31.720 He's that kind of commentator, as you know, if you've heard him.

01:38:34.620 And the hilarious Adam Carolla, who is his own sage of Southern California.

01:38:40.100 And we'll have a lot of thoughts for us.

01:38:41.780 There's this whole view controversy that I want to get into with him.

01:38:44.280 Don't miss any of that.

01:38:45.440 Tune into the show.

01:38:46.060 Download The Megyn Kelly Show on Apple, Pandora, Spotify and or Stitcher, wherever you get your

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01:38:54.720 If you want to see a picture of the snake I caught or the bear that buzzed by my little

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01:39:01.800 Thanks in the meantime for listening, for watching.

01:39:03.740 And we'll do it all over again tomorrow.

01:39:07.260 Thanks for listening to The Megyn Kelly Show.

01:39:09.140 No BS, no agenda and no fear.

The Megyn Kelly Show - August 01, 2022

Biden's Ridiculous Recession Spin, and Pelosi's Taiwan Trip, with Peter Schiff and Jim Geraghty ｜ Ep. 364

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