BS Report on Cuba and Drones, and Why Spencer Pratt Can Win, with Mark Halperin, Ryan Grim, and Curt Mills, Plus Why TDS is REAL, with Jonathan Alpert ｜ Ep. 1319
00:02:06.660exclusive U.S. eyes attack drone threat from Cuba, a threat from Cuba, which is basically
00:02:18.620completely imploding and not in a position to threaten anybody. But this is what they're going
00:02:25.020with. The story says the reporter got exclusive access to U.S. intelligence, indicating Cuba
00:02:32.140has obtained more than 300 military drones, 300 military drones. It goes on to say that leaders
00:02:39.460of the island nation have had discussions about attacking the U.S. military base at Guantanamo
00:02:44.300Bay, U.S. military vessels, and maybe even Key West, Florida. Yes, while they night after night
00:02:51.320cannot even keep the lights on or the ICU units in their hospitals powered, literally losing power
00:03:01.220on their ventilators of babies, they're thinking about bombing us. That's what Axios wants you to
00:03:07.800believe. And I'm not blaming just Axios. It's our government clearly leaking to Axios. Axios,
00:03:13.240time and time again, has come out with exclusives from the U.S. government, letting us know that
00:03:20.560the Iran war is about to settle. It's over. They've basically reached a deal. It's being
00:03:25.520paper now. We're about to get great news. Did it happen? I was I was at a tennis tournament all
00:03:31.700weekend. Did we settle the Iran war? I don't I feel like we didn't. So that's unfortunate. But
00:03:36.720it's also unfortunate for Axios that it continues to allow itself to be used in this manner,
00:03:40.720because typically as a reporter, you have an obligation to your audience to maintain a healthy1.00
00:03:45.520sense of skepticism, especially when you are obviously being fed a bunch of bullshit. Cuba1.00
00:03:52.860is not about to attack us. These are lies. Okay. We can make, we can have a good faith debate about
00:04:01.800whether we want to swoop in and rescue Cuba from the conditions we've helped impose on Cuba
00:04:07.880and be really clear-eyed about why we've done what we've done and why we think they need us.
00:04:14.200But let's please do it honestly. Let's not pretend that Cuba is about to attack us. Okay. Like this
00:04:19.060is an insult to our intelligence. They literally cannot keep the lights on down there as they're
00:04:24.780dealing with extreme fuel shortages because America has cut off the oil shipments that Cuba
00:04:32.240relies upon from Venezuela. All right. The fall of Venezuela or its leadership was the death knell
00:04:39.140to Cuba. When we swooped down and we got Nicolas Maduro in a daring military operation back in
00:04:44.220January, that was kind of the end of Cuba, which had been hanging by a thread. And now they have
00:04:51.140no oil. And so they have no power. They have no way of turning on their lights for some 23 out of
00:04:56.740the 24 hours of the day. So there is, Cuba's not contemplating an attack on America. Stop, stop.
00:05:05.120Don't insult our intelligence. Be honest. Tell us what we're fucking doing. It's just whatever.
00:05:11.540OK, so are we are we planning an attack on them? We don't know. We're not sure. Even Axios had the, thank God, like the sense of self-preservation enough to describe its own reporting as a possible, quote, pretext to U.S. military action.
00:05:31.580Thank you. Thank you for that access. It's like, here's a bunch of spoon fed bullshit we've been given. I'm going to put in one line about what we actually think is going on here. They're using this as a pretext to U.S. military action so that they can then turn around and be like, we said it was protectual. Right. You gave your audience absolutely no context for all the bullshit you just heaped upon them.
00:05:53.520You just wanted the exclusive. You want to be patted on the head by whatever administration official is giving you these exclusives.0.98
00:06:00.320You want clicks and therefore you refuse to actually offer context for your audience so they are to know what's real and what's not.
00:06:07.200Shame on you. OK, it's not just Trump's government. All the governments try to mislead the press.
00:06:12.460This is not a new invention. It's the press's obligation to be skeptical, sniff through it and protect their audience,
00:06:21.240to protect their audience from bullshit.0.96
00:06:23.620You don't have to make an affirmative determination.1.00
00:06:25.940But you do have to include the facts around the information you've been given0.99
00:06:30.320so that your audience can make up its own mind.
00:06:34.120There is a fair amount of evidence that we are about to engage
00:06:38.800in some sort of military action against Cuba.
00:06:41.660CIA Director John Ratcliffe made a visit there last Thursday
00:06:45.380and warned that the Trump administration would, quote,
00:06:47.480quote, seriously engage with the country's government, but, quote, only if it makes
00:06:53.140fundamental changes. What does that mean? Leadership? We want regime change before we'll
00:07:00.760swoop in to rescue them? The New York Times also reporting that Ratcliffe demanded Cuba shut down
00:07:07.120China's and Russia's alleged intelligence posts on the island. Okay, that may very well be the case.0.99
00:07:15.780I mean, certainly wouldn't be surprised at all to see these two, you know, socialist and communist nations having some sort of a foothold on the island of Cuba, which is communist, that we don't like some sort of intel post.
00:07:30.580This is what we weren't hearing about that.
00:07:34.080Didn't hear about that from Trump or others who are sort of slowly making the case for some sort of interference in Cuba at all.
00:07:40.820This seems to be an 11th hour possible justification because it's the first we're really hearing them mention all the the intelligence posts from our two main adversaries, China and Russia.
00:07:52.080You know, U.S. has got to do something. Can't be a bunch of stooges.
00:07:55.840There are more signs of U.S. action against Cuba, too, in addition to the ones that we just went through, including reports that the DOJ is now contemplating indicting former Cuba leader Raul Castro.
00:08:06.720Does this sound familiar? Does this sound like a playbook you're familiar with?
00:08:11.680Obviously, they could use this as another justification for a Maduro-like raid to take Castro into custody, even though he's no longer in power there.
00:08:37.100You know, all my life I've been hearing about the United States and Cuba.0.98
00:08:40.820When will the United States do it? I do believe I'll be the honor of having the honor of taking Cuba.
00:08:49.020I think I can do anything I want with it. You want to know the truth.
00:08:51.580Cuba's Spanish have a bad regime. They have very bad and corrupt leadership.1.00
00:08:56.860And it may be a friendly takeover. It may not be a friendly takeover. It wouldn't matter.
00:09:01.880Cuba's a failed nation. Cuba also wants to make a deal. And I think we will pretty soon either make a deal or do whatever we have to do. And so we're talking to Cuba, but we're going to do Iran before Cuba.0.59
00:09:17.440We're going to do Iran before Cuba. And here's one of the president's favorite foreign policy surrogates these days, Iran war cheerleader, Senator Lindsey Graham, speaking about Cuba. Watch.
00:12:06.960So in five months or so, one shipment of oil has gotten to Cuba.
00:12:12.960And because it's been under sanctions for many decades, but very tight sanctions since
00:12:17.7402019, which were implemented by Trump, but then extended by Biden, their electrical grid is0.97
00:12:25.420trash. Like they haven't been able to get the equipment because they're under sanctions to
00:12:30.460upgrade that grid. And so even as they've actually pretty rapidly accelerated to clean energy, I
00:12:36.300think they're at 20% renewable because they understood like, oh, we're on an island and
00:12:40.900they're increasingly going to choke off our access to oil from offshore. So we need to ramp this up.
00:12:47.740With the grid in such disrepair, they have consistent, as you said, blackouts across the entire island.
00:12:56.620And so the idea that they're going to launch some preemptive attack on the United States of America is, yeah, it's barely even an insult to our intelligence.
00:13:07.300It almost doesn't even rise to that level.
00:17:48.120And there are tons of guns in the United States, in Jamaica, in Haiti. It wouldn't be that difficult in Mexico. It wouldn't be that difficult for all of a sudden Cuba to be flooded with weapons.
00:17:59.560uh and then you've got uh and then you've got a complete failed state which then becomes a hub0.54
00:18:06.040for narco traffickers um which uh has the obvious knock-on effects of you know hundreds of you know
00:18:13.620probably millions of migrants hundreds of thousands dying uh many of those dying violently uh there's
00:18:19.740there's really no alternative presented for how you know for like how it's going to be taken and0.90
00:18:25.740then I guess run as a colony or something or a 52nd 53rd state so it is it is a really good
00:18:31.420question and it's not one that's that's remotely being discussed it's like okay you think they're
00:18:37.200bad they have 300 drones also do you think Iran at this moment is exporting drones if you're Iran
00:18:42.760and somebody's got an order for drones I think I think you're holding on to those for the moment
00:18:46.960like I cannot imagine those are getting out and secondly also in the article the article itself
00:18:53.220says that the U.S. intelligence community assesses that Cuba is preparing to counterattack
00:18:59.640if the U.S. attacks them, which is a completely different thing than the headline and lead
00:19:06.400So even their own article undercuts the headline.
00:19:12.020So what do you, I mean, I'm trying to think of the Trump administration's position here,
00:19:16.700Kurt, because now that we've got, it's almost like the dog catching the bumper, right?
00:19:21.300Like, we're getting what we wanted. They're collapsing economically. And they do need help. And Trump can't allow Russia or China to be the help. Like, I'm with him on all that. Like, it's not good for us to have Russia or China swoop in and take over Cuba. We absolutely can't have that. So it does have to be us.
00:19:43.060But it's almost like we didn't we didn't either think it through or we're just not sharing with the American public what we've thought through.
00:19:50.500The plan would be when the thing we worked to make happen finally happened, which is the economic implosion of Cuba.
00:19:58.720Yeah, I mean, this is where I think you see a breakdown between the Trump alliance with the neocons and the hawks.
00:20:04.000Trump wants one thing, which is headlines, attention, big moves.
00:20:26.320And I think that tells you what Trump wants is the big, splashy visage of a victory.0.95
00:20:33.040What the Grahams, and particularly the Rubios of the world, want is quite different.0.79
00:20:38.200They're willing to partner with him.0.98
00:20:39.500but they want ideological change in this country and or revenge.
00:20:43.720And I think that's pretty different.0.71
00:20:46.080And I think with Cuba, we may see the Venezuela model kind of collapse
00:20:49.940because in Venezuela, Rubio and Graham actually didn't get everything they wanted.
00:20:54.200They replaced Maduro with Machado and the regime remains intact.
00:20:58.660And even for the more nationalist elements of Trump's coalition,
00:21:01.980who, you know, claim to say we should be kicking China or Russia out of the region,
00:21:07.480It's not entirely clear, particularly with China, that that even happened in Venezuela and that this would happen here.
00:21:13.540Now, the flip side is if they went full bore, then I think you could see the catastrophe.
00:21:18.500And I think it was pretty telling over the weekend that Robert Gates, who's a pretty careful establishmentarian type in Washington,0.77
00:21:26.460he signaled that he thought there could be a refugee crisis if they collapse Cuba.0.94
00:21:30.560I thought that was actually pretty extraordinary.
00:21:32.880Gates doesn't usually, although he's a realist, plunge into that type of rhetoric.
00:21:36.440And that tells you there's probably great disquiet about this operation. Cuba is a lot closer to Venezuela than the United States. And if something goes wrong, that's our problem in two seconds.
00:21:46.880Well, that's an interesting that's a very interesting political problem if it happens, because traditionally what we've seen in America is Democrats want open borders and want as many, you know, immigrants from these southern countries coming across the border as possible.
00:22:05.020Republicans don't, except when it comes to Cuba.
00:22:08.100Republicans are like, oh, actually, increasing Cuban immigration is fine because they tend to be more conservative.
00:22:13.820They're more like the Marco Rubio types who are like sick of what happened to Cuba.
00:22:19.420They're culturally conservative and they tend to vote Republican.
00:22:21.860And then you get the Democrats objecting to too much immigration from Cuba.
00:22:25.440So it would actually raise a very interesting political question of who what's the position going to be like.
00:22:33.160Are Republicans going to back a flux of immigrants or refugees, which they've totally been against from any other country except now from Cuba?
00:22:42.800You know, and I don't know. It's going to force a lot of people to reevaluate earlier positions or probably not. Who am I kidding? They don't care about consistency. Go ahead.
00:22:50.260One other quick point, just because I don't think this gets discussed enough. One thing I learned while I was in Cuba talking to interviewing top officials there is that they are absolutely wide open to basically whatever the United States wants in negotiations.
00:23:04.560sanctions uh they're open to you know they're they're open to you know talking about political
00:23:09.320reforms they're not gonna you know uh they're not gonna say that they're going to do it under
00:23:13.740pressure but their argument is if you lift the sanctions if you normalize relations with us
00:23:18.920we will allow u.s direct investment well u.s companies can come in here top official even
00:23:23.960said they're they're open to exploring you you know the united states is upset about nationalized
00:23:28.400property let's talk about compensation for that we like they're they're they're wide open to
00:23:33.260whatever it is that the that the u.s is claiming are are its problems and what they have consistently
00:23:39.880said is when it comes to political reforms with the with the kind of boot of sanctions on their
00:23:45.300neck there's very little room to maneuver and if if you can get the kind of threat of an invasion
00:23:51.760off of you then there's a there's actually a lot more space uh where the united states could see
00:23:57.920if if those were their actual objectives but that's where we get back to there being kind of
00:24:02.820twin camps here. Is it the U.S. that is driving the policy here, or is it this kind of Miami-Cuban
00:24:08.940lobby that has outsized power? This is key. I mean, listen to what Ryan just said. The nationalist
00:24:15.400objectives, just like with Venezuela, have already been achieved. Cuba has basically capitulated. So
00:24:20.300if that is the goal of the United States, it can already be done with soft power. And you might see,
00:24:25.740you know, for instance, take a country like Vietnam, China rules like that in their region.
00:24:29.900They exert sort of Death Star influence over the country, but they don't actually invade
00:27:08.860It is the United States that is still, I guess, you know, simmering about the Cold War and the fact they couldn't assassinate Castro all these different times.
00:27:18.240It's like it really it's no longer rational.
00:27:21.020It's like it's really kind of an emotional lashing out.
00:27:23.940But isn't it that you tell me because I'm not an expert on this at all, but isn't it more isn't it rational because the whole point is to cause what's happening now?
00:27:32.640We don't want American investment there.
00:27:34.340We don't want anything that's going to make life better in Cuba yet is we're playing the long game.
00:27:38.860like so that's an interesting question so could could we starve the population of energy
00:27:46.820such that they reach um complete collapse and catastrophe i think probably yes now it's taken
00:27:56.420it's taken many decades there are there are protests that are that are flaring up right now
00:28:01.480uh but there are there are people are genuinely also directing some of the out some of their
00:28:07.180outrage at what is closest to them which is which is the government also in 2019 cuba really opened
00:28:12.420up the internet a lot and so cubans now have access to like instagram and things like that
00:28:17.060and that has created that you know the gap between how they're living and what they're seeing on on
00:28:21.140social media has created a lot of resentment so there's there's genuine resentment that that you
00:28:25.440know rubio wants to kind of drive the wedge into so could you could you eventually topple the
00:28:31.720government by causing enough suffering among the cuban population possibly but but then what like
00:28:38.360who like and to what advantage as kurt said all of the national goals that the u.s has
00:28:43.820are achievable by the end of this week in negotiations with them anything we want we can
00:28:49.720have it so what how many more babies and elderly people and and not just babies but people who have
00:28:55.360diabetes who are otherwise healthy and we be otherwise living normal normal lives who are
00:29:00.700going to die so that enough people get upset that they topple the government but then for what0.91
00:29:05.780to create a narco state 90 miles from from key west maybe like because who does that like who0.85
00:29:13.020does that serve like that serves our security there's no way the trump administration is going0.91
00:29:16.540to let that happen there's i i would never believe trump trump will not let that happen and we would0.94
00:29:21.060we will be their boots on the ground before we're going to let them turn into this narco rump state0.92
00:39:56.200in politics and hardball professions of setting examples and sending signals to folks.
00:40:02.240And the folks around him, people like Chris LaCivita and the White House political director,
00:40:09.500they're tough. They take no prisoners. And when they see someone cross them,
00:40:15.820they write it down in a little book. And when the time comes, they go after him.
00:40:19.740And Cassidy lost his job for one reason or one reason only, Donald Trump.
00:40:22.740Yeah. Well, I mean, you hear, you know, places like NPR this morning, like, oh, my God, just like Donald Trump's hold on the party, you know, after what happened with those Indiana state lawmakers who wouldn't change the redistricting rules.
00:40:38.360And Trump basically offered up his own slate of people who could replace them.
00:40:43.260And the Indiana voters were like, we accept.
00:40:45.740They went with Trump's preferred lawmakers at the state level because these guys crossed Trump.
00:40:55.240He will mess with an Indiana state representatives race.
00:40:57.780He will mess with the Senate, U.S. Senate.
00:40:59.620He will certainly mess with a House of member of the House of Congress, like as we're seeing in Thomas Massey, Lauren Boebert.
00:41:08.760Trump's getting involved in that. But they're very upset over NPR that he's got such a hold on the party.
00:41:13.000But he has for some time. It's his party. And there's no evidence of that weakening. Is there virtually none?
00:41:20.920Again, the voters get to decide, but Trump gets Donald Trump gets to tell the voters what he'd like them to do.
00:41:25.800and within the confines of Republican primaries, they generally do what Donald Trump says.
00:41:30.680He's almost never lost. Part of why I think he hasn't endorsed in the Texas Senate runoff
00:41:35.440is because he doesn't want to blemish his record, because if he tells folks to vote for John
00:41:40.180Cornyn, that may not happen. So he knows how to pick his spots. And in this case,
00:41:44.500he found a candidate who he thought could be Senator Cassidy, and he was right. And I suspect
00:41:50.740It'll same thing will happen in Kentucky tomorrow with Thomas Massey.
00:41:54.720The president has has no use for Thomas Massey and Chris Lasavita.
00:41:58.900Again, one of the president's political advisers is an open book on X for a long time saying that this guy's got to go and they know how to do it.
00:44:09.880And so I do think that there's a faction of Republican voters
00:44:13.920and probably some Democrat voters, too, who don't want to see him go down because we don't want I
00:44:19.220don't want AIPAC controlling our elections and I don't want care controlling our elections.
00:44:23.480You know, I don't want these elections determined on what's good for Israel or what's good for
00:44:29.480Muslims abroad. It should be about America. So it's annoying. But I'm not surprised to see Trump0.62
00:44:35.480unleashing all the stops against him, because even before the Israel thing was taking front
00:44:39.580center stage. Trump hated him like he's been voting against Trump. Right. So you're absolutely
00:44:45.420right that Massey is different than Cassidy in the respect you said, which is there are people
00:44:50.680who are passionate about Massey, not just in his district, but all over the country, because he has
00:44:54.880a certain strand of MAGA who really likes him, who likes to stand on foreign interventions,
00:45:00.320who likes what he's done with Ro Khanna on the Epstein stuff. So he's got a big following.
00:45:05.600but and and there's you're right that APEC's putting a lot of money but I'll say if Massey
00:45:10.760loses it'll be for the same reason Cassidy lost Donald Trump the the money that's been put in by
00:45:16.220pro-Israel forces I don't think is dispositive I think he'll win or lose based on what the
00:45:21.560president and his team have mobilized every every dollar matters but there's money on both sides in
00:45:26.520this race and Massey's got got support also from people who you you wouldn't necessarily want to
00:45:32.080quote-unquote, as you said, control. But the control here is to the voters, and the voters
00:45:36.300get to decide if Massey gets reelected or not. And again, I think if he loses, and I think he
00:45:40.440probably will, it's almost entirely because Donald Trump wills it to be so, and the party follows
00:45:46.120Donald Trump on most everything. He's making the case that it is the Israel money. This is what he
00:45:52.240said to ABCs this week, yesterday, SOP 10. Well, you've actually said this week that
00:45:58.120this, that your vote is a referendum on whether Israel gets to buy seats in Congress. What did
00:46:05.040you mean by that? Well, the RJC, AIPAC and Miriam Adelson and Paul Singer, they're all part of the
00:46:12.240Israeli lobby and that's where all the money comes from. And it, it will be a referendum on foreign0.82
00:46:17.600policy, whether Israel gets to dictate that by, you know, bullying members of Congress. And I'm0.67
00:46:23.900the one they haven't been able to bully. So they're putting all the brunt, the force on me,
00:46:28.480but you can tell that I'm ahead in the polls and they're desperate. That's why they're sending
00:46:32.660the secretary of war to my district tomorrow. That's why the president's losing sleep and
00:46:37.960tweeting about this. That's why AIPAC has dumped another $3 million into my race this weekend.
00:46:43.460It's because they're panicked and they really haven't been able to gain a lead in this race.
00:46:48.260is he wrong mark well it's hard to know i mean bill cassidy on the morning of his primary was
00:46:54.680confidently predicting he would win and he didn't make the runoff so i'm not sure we can credit him
00:46:59.640for knowing that he's he's definitely going to win um it's it's certainly the race is either
00:47:04.800close or up in the air enough that of course both sides are going to work hard at the end and put in
00:47:09.420more money um so i don't i don't know that i don't know that he's right about the reasons why they're
00:47:14.300doing it. They're doing it because they want to make sure that they beat him. In terms of who's
00:47:19.000controlling it, again, the president did this. This is the president's doing. But no doubt that
00:47:25.060people who want a more pro-Israel policy are spending big money in the race. And that is a
00:47:31.500rallying cry now. It's talked about a lot, but I still don't think talked about enough or fully
00:47:36.000understood, both on the left and the right in this country now, going after AIPAC, going after people
00:47:41.460who support israel uh with a lot of uh a lot of energy um is popular in a lot of parts of the
00:47:48.280country and you're going to see more of this in in the midterms and primaries in the general
00:47:52.380election and you're going to see more of it in the 2028 race because this is for many americans
00:47:57.260they want to they want a big change in what was a national consensus for a long period of time
00:48:01.680over support for israel yeah yeah i think you have israel to thank for that here's what uh
00:48:07.360Thomas Massey told Tucker on AIPAC's influence in our U.S. politics when he went on his show.
00:48:14.360He's been on a few times. This is this one's from June 7th, 2024.
00:48:17.780Well, I have Republicans who come to me on the floor and say, I wish I could vote with you today.
00:48:24.560Yours is the right vote, but I would just take too much flack back home. And I have
00:48:30.800Republicans who come to me and say, that's wrong what AIPAC is doing to you. Let me talk to my
00:48:36.740aipac person by the way everybody but me has an aipac person what's that mean an aipac person
00:48:43.100it's like your babysitter your aipac babysitter who uh is always talking to you for aipac they're
00:48:49.780probably a constituent in your district but they are you know firmly embedded in aipac and every
00:48:57.700member has something like this every i don't know how it works on the democrat side uh but that's
00:49:04.280how it works on the republican side and when they and when they come to dc you go have lunch with
00:49:09.220them and they've got your cell number and you have conversations with them so i've had like
00:49:15.300that's absolutely crazy i've had four members of congress say i'll talk to my apac person
00:49:21.160and it's clearly what we call them my back guy i'll talk to my apac guy and see if i can get
00:49:27.720to you know dial those ads back why if i never heard this before it doesn't benefit anybody
00:49:34.280why would they want to tell their constituents that they've basically got a buddy system
00:49:39.820with somebody who's representing a foreign country does anyone have a putin guy that they
00:49:45.000talk to not only do they not have a putin guy look they don't they they don't have a britain guy
00:49:52.320They don't have an Australian guy. They, you know, they don't have a Germany dude. Like, it's the only country that does this.
00:50:03.120So, Mark, to me, my takeaway in watching that is, you know, all the time I was at Fox 14 years plus absolutely zero downside in Republicans saying that they are walking in lockstep with Israel.0.57
00:50:14.200It was like nothing but good things can come from saying that back Israel 100 percent only in the past couple of years since Israel, you know, first defended itself in Gaza and then just went to the point where many people were using the term genocide and completely leveled Gaza.
00:50:31.960And now it's leveling Beirut. Have they become far more controversial even in Republican politics to the point where Republicans under 50 don't support them?0.64
00:50:39.300So does the AIPAC guy continue on Team GOP or are we going to start to see whether it's at Massey's battle tomorrow or the actual midterms in November forward a change in all that?
00:50:53.860Well, they they've already suffered some losses in both parties over the last few years.
00:51:00.020And in Democratic primaries, they've not always gotten their way.
00:51:02.420And sometimes they've completely bollocks it up and help someone who was even more anti-Israel win a primary.
00:51:07.600So they're reevaluating how they do business. But they're up against a force bigger than just a bunch of Washington meetings and conference calls. They're up against a force of scrutiny of Israel's conduct that, again, on the left and on the right, has led to a really concerted effort to say anything APEC does is bad. No longer should it be evaluated on the merits. Anything they do is bad.
00:51:31.540And they went for a long time as one of the most arrogant and entitled lobbies in Washington.
00:51:36.660And they're paying a price for that now, along with the strong feelings about Israel's behavior.
00:51:41.480And supporters of Israel are at a loss to know what to do.
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00:52:57.000back to what matters. Mark Halperin, host of Next Up with Mark Halperin, is back with me now.
00:53:06.860So, Mark, what are you thinking? What are you thinking right now? I heard you on your show,
00:53:11.300we played a clip, I don't know, two weeks ago, saying you were seeing a potential more than ever
00:53:18.500for the Senate to go blue in these midterms. But since then, we've had redistricting wins,
00:53:27.000on team red and i don't think the momentum's changed exactly the polls are still very bad
00:53:34.820for republicans especially for trump but has anything changed your mind how are you looking
00:53:39.960at the midterms as of today well in terms of the senate it's still race by race but if it were
00:53:43.920today the republicans would lose the senate because the polls as you've said a couple times
00:53:48.320are just a disaster so a lot of these races would fall to the democrats but with a little
00:53:53.660stabilization, I think it still goes back to a big challenge for Democrats because they have to
00:53:58.380basically run the table, hold three races, win three and then win one more. And right now, you
00:54:04.880know, I look at Michigan where Democrats are poised to nominate someone who I think is basically
00:54:09.580unelectable in Maine, where I think in the end Plattner will prove to be unelectable unless
00:54:14.620I'm just really misreading the main electorate. And if those two go Republican, one would be a
00:54:20.060Republican hold and one would be a Republican win, then then Republicans will hold the Senate.
00:54:25.280But the environment has to change for that to happen. But it could. On the Republican side,
00:54:29.600redistricting has made it less likely Democrats take majority, but they're still favored to. And
00:54:34.720we'll have to see how many races end up actually being competitive. But Republicans have to fix
00:54:39.260in the House. Republicans have to fix this environment problem. The president's approval
00:54:43.480rating, how people feel about the economy, the price of gas. If they don't fix that,
00:54:47.340It doesn't matter how much money they raise or how unpopular Democrats are, then they'll lose control of both chambers.
00:54:53.840Because even though they've gained some 14 seats in the redistricting, you know, you could be looking at if you look at 2018, Republicans lost 40 House seats.
00:55:02.780Like if the margins are that big and the approvals are that low, no redistricting is going to save them.
00:55:09.140So they actually have to start addressing some of the concerns of the voters.
00:55:12.120This just in, we've got a couple of polls.
00:55:14.300None of them is good news for the Republicans, unfortunately.
00:55:18.760But here's one from, let's see, pulling it up.
00:55:29.520Dan Pfeiffer of Team Obama, biased, but says, for what it's worth, this poll points toward a shellacking for the GOP driven by Trump's putrid polls, an unpopular war with Iran, an anger about his economic policies.
00:55:43.240But the reality in the crosstabs, he writes, is even worse. And here's why. And he goes through, like he says, he has an overall approval rating of 38 percent. But he says it's what what is happening with the voters who won him the 2024 election that is making this particular Democrat happy.
00:56:04.360With Latino voters, he's underwater 51 points. With voters aged 18 to 29, young voters, he's underwater 57 points. With independents, he's underwater 43 points.
00:56:22.040So in other words, that's the difference between his approval and disapproval.
00:56:50.540Trump with that group, white non-college voters, he had an approval rating of 68 percent and
00:56:58.180disapproval of 32 percent. So he was plus 36 with them. In May this month, he has an approval rating
00:57:06.220with this group of 46, disapproval now of 54. He's now underwater eight with them, eight,
00:57:14.420which is a 44 point swing to the negative for Trump with the white working class, which is, without a doubt, Trump's base.0.54
00:57:25.540You know, one of the things I think so important in if you want to be on the national town square is to not hide from the truth.
00:57:31.400If you're a huge Trump supporter and you think in general the polls are fake news, you should wise up because the results you just read of one poll match private Republican polling almost exactly in almost every case.
00:57:44.000every poll is a little bit different, but the general numbers are the same. And that's why,
00:57:48.280again, Republicans say, we got to fix the environment. We got to get our folks who
00:57:52.860supported Trump in 2024 to feel better about the economy in particular. Until and unless that
00:57:59.920happens, this will be a big wipeout. But there's a lot of time. And if Democrats, if Republicans
00:58:06.800can get people feeling a little bit better, then they can execute their plan, which is to say to
00:58:11.780folks, don't make this a referendum on Donald Trump. Make it a choice between two sides. And
00:58:16.380the Democratic brand is as popular as a rat at a picnic. They're just not right now being held
00:58:23.740accountable for that because there's so much focus, as is always the case, is on the incumbent
00:58:30.620and people's very sour mood about the economy. Yeah. Yes. Staying with the CBS poll,
00:58:37.680Listen to this. Is your income keeping up with inflation? Yes, it is. 23%. No, it isn't. 77%.
00:58:46.08077% of the electorate says their income is not keeping up with inflation. That's dire.
00:58:54.520Gas prices have been a financial hardship and difficult, an inconvenience but not difficult,
00:59:00.900or your finances have not been affected.
01:02:28.700So there's two areas that the hopeful people cite.
01:02:31.880One is the thing the president and Scott Besson have been talking about for weeks, that Iran's going to run out of storage capacity for its oil and that that will cause them to cry, uncle, because at that point, they're not making money selling oil and they'll have to shut down their oil facilities.
01:02:46.960And if you shut them down, it's virtually impossible to start them back up with their great expense.
01:04:14.240So don't they have a better, a higher likelihood of getting the strait open than we do?
01:04:18.980Well, I think my, just from observation and reporting in the short term, I think China's
01:04:22.820fine with the strait being closed because it embarrasses the united states the president may
01:04:27.120say mr xi is a great friend of his but i think china loves seeing the united states uh brought
01:04:32.560to its knees to some extent by another by another country um and then and again i always want to
01:04:39.880make clear i'm rooting for the united states i hope the president figures this out i hope the
01:04:43.680iranian people get regime change but we can't put our head in the sand and ignore what we see right
01:04:48.380in front of us. I think the Chinese can work it out. We're going to get regime change if we're
01:04:52.920not careful. I think the Chinese will figure out a way to get oil. They're already figuring out1.00
01:04:57.300some ways to get it. The president's going to sell him some. And the Iranians could say,
01:05:02.440we'll open the strait to Chinese oil, but not to other countries and oil going to China. And
01:05:09.700if the United States tries to blockade it, there could be a confrontation. So in the long term,
01:05:15.040Yes, China can't go forever with the strait being closed, but I suspect they can go through the midterms with the strait being closed.
01:05:22.960How do we think that the meeting with the Chinese president went last week?
01:05:26.720I thought it was amazing in no and nothing I read.
01:05:30.500No, no newspaper article, no evening news report.
01:05:33.640Did they talk about the two leaders digging in on AI and the threat it poses to all of our children, to our future, to our kids' future?
01:05:45.440Forget the existential threat of like the AI becomes super intelligent and drops a bomb on us pesky humans, which actually is a risk that's being seriously flagged by AI experts.
01:05:57.320But let's just check that for now because we mere mortals can't quite understand that one.
01:06:03.640And the elimination of all of our children's livelihoods, like every white-collar job in America, and a lot of the blue-collar ones, too, didn't even seem to come up, Mark.
01:14:49.060Well, a lot of focus on whether he'll win and a lot of focus on the ads and the ads are spectacular.
01:14:53.840and they teach a lot about what effective communication is in politics and in general.
01:14:59.920To me, the biggest issue here, whether he wins or loses, and I think he has a good chance to win.
01:15:04.740I predicted a little bit tongue in cheek that I think he will win, but I don't feel strongly
01:15:09.640about it, but I think he could. The biggest issue is we have let down families and children
01:15:14.480in big cities around the country for decades now, almost all run by Democrats. The case of
01:15:20.740of the mayor of L.A., Karen Bass, is an extreme one because she also allowed the fires to burn0.86
01:15:26.400down. But separate from that, drugs, crime, failing schools, all the things that exist in
01:15:32.200our big cities run by Democrats. And the Republican Party, I say all the time, the only
01:15:39.180thing bigger failure than the Democratic governance in the cities is the failure of Republicans to win
01:15:43.960these races by saying, are you sick of the failure? Let's try something different. This guy
01:15:49.840is may not be an orthodox candidate, but like Donald Trump, I think that's what's given him a
01:15:54.900chance. He's highlighting the failures of governance. That's what this should be about.
01:15:59.520All these families, I live in a big city, you used to, all these families and children who
01:16:03.780have been failed by failed governance deserve a competition of ideas. And although he's not
01:16:12.760been very specific what his solutions are in most cases, he's been very effective and on point in
01:16:17.980criticizing, critiquing the failure of governance by Democrats in Los Angeles. So whether he wins
01:16:23.680or not, I hope every conservative in the country who lives in a big city or cares about a big city
01:16:28.980learns from him to say, not just make cute, effective, funny ads, but point out the failure
01:16:34.940and offer something better because, again, our big cities need to be saved.
01:16:40.240No, as they say in AA, the first step is admitting you have a problem.
01:16:44.560And how can you reelect Karen Bass, who doesn't admit she has a problem or her, you know, other Democrat running mate who they seem to think, oh, whatever problems there are have nothing to do with the real problems.
01:16:57.660They won't identify the actual problems that they've helped create.
01:17:43.480And so this is my life. And I have seen this city just fall apart, you know, over the last, I don't know, eight, nine years, but especially the last four years that, you know, the homeless problem is out of control in this city.
01:17:59.740I've been chased by people, a guy with a hammer walking out of my gym.
01:24:01.220And how do we get from that to everyone is overly therapized and has got their prescriptions for their boundaries, their me time, their safe spaces to where you can't even talk to some of these young people because they're so obsessed with their latest disorder or how something you've done has crossed some imaginary line that they've created in order to foster their own happiness?
01:24:24.420Well, and you're spot on with that. Everything's a disorder. We have therapists that are pathologizing everything. Had a bad day at work? Well, you must have a toxic work environment. Your boss is a jerk? Well, he must be a narcissist if he's demanding. Or your boyfriend's not acting the way that you want him to? Well, he must be a narcissist as well. So we have therapists.
01:24:48.040Every one of my friends who has an ex-boyfriend thinks he's a narcissist. It's very funny. It's a common theme.
01:24:54.120Well, and it's an overdone theme. And my profession is to blame for that. We have therapists who are using these clinical terms so loosely, and then it's migrated and found its way into social media. So we have, you know, you name it, your favorite influencers out there just spewing absolute nonsense and labeling everyone as ADHD or toxic or narcissist or bipolar or borderline.
01:25:20.560And so it's a huge problem in our society.
01:25:23.880I have patients that come in to see me for the first time and they say, I think I'm bipolar
01:25:28.540or I think my girlfriend is borderline.
01:25:30.740And I said, well, why do you think that?
01:25:32.800Well, my influencer that I follow said that.
01:25:36.420And they put out these checklists, five signs that you might be ADHD or five signs that
01:25:43.980So again, this starts in my profession.0.99
01:25:46.640I have colleagues that are putting this nonsense out there.
01:25:50.560How do you, it's funny because I've told the audience many times that I, I've had the same
01:25:54.340therapist for 14, 15 years now, 15 years. And, but I, so I'm like, why does that work for me?
01:26:01.180The truth is we don't really do therapy. He's more like a life coach. You know, he more gives me
01:26:07.240helpful tips for how to think about things in a different way. He never asks me questions about
01:26:13.920my childhood or my mother. You know, it's not like that. It's like, he's very practical and
01:26:18.780he likes cognitive behavioral therapy, where you're really just giving somebody a tool
01:26:23.400for different ways of looking at things. For me, that's been very effective.
01:26:27.320But oftentimes, it is more of a blame session with these therapists who want to throw your
01:26:33.120parents, like, I have a dear friend who's been through multiple therapists. And like,
01:26:36.780if I had a nickel for each one that tried to alienate her from her mother, and she loves
01:26:40.900her mother, she actually didn't seem to have a bunch of problems with her mother until the
01:26:44.480therapist started to create some. Yeah, exactly. And Megan, it sounds like you've got a great0.87
01:26:49.660therapist and there should be more therapists like that. But so many people have come to me
01:26:53.860and they've talked about their previous therapy and how they just sat there and talked about their
01:26:58.640potty training days for years and years. And if you think about the time commitment,
01:27:03.600if you're going in weekly and spending a fortune on this, it's a complete utter waste of time.
01:27:09.180And I think we don't need to look too much further than Woody Allen. He's the poster boy for
01:27:13.920lifelong, old-school psychoanalysis. It simply does not work. And the approach that you mentioned,
01:27:20.940cognitive behavioral therapy, is much more about setting concrete goals and coming up with a plan
01:27:26.980to reach them. And that's the way that I practice as well. And that's most effective. That's how
01:27:32.340you're going to help with anxiety issues, depression, relationship problems, career,
01:27:37.320performance issues. But to sit around and vent with your therapist, in the moment it feels good,
01:27:43.160And that's why people keep going back for more. But if you're not learning practical skills or
01:27:49.120gaining true insight or tools, then it's a complete waste of time.
01:27:54.560Yes, yes. They're doing this to children too. Again, we're speaking with Jonathan Alper and
01:27:59.060the book is Therapy Nation, How America Got Hooked on Therapy and Why It's Left Us More
01:28:04.380Anxious and Divided. More anxious. They're both addressed, the division as well. But on the
01:28:10.780anxiety front, the children go through this too. The children show up at school. And now the big
01:28:16.800thing is for these teachers to make them talk about the worst thing that's ever happened to them.
01:28:21.300That's what the college essays are supposed to be about, something terrible that happened to you.
01:28:26.520And just the mere act of spending all your time thinking about that or trying to kick off your
01:28:31.400day at school, talking about that is not helpful. Yeah, no, it's not helpful at all. And if we're
01:28:38.300so focused on all the things that are wrong with ourselves or society, how are we possibly going
01:28:43.540to move forward? When I work with people, I want them to tap into their strengths and what they're
01:28:48.380good at, not sit there and talk to me endlessly about all the things that are problematic in
01:28:53.300their life. Let's talk about what's good and how to build on that. But you're right, we see it in
01:28:58.100schools. After the most recent election of Donald Trump, Georgetown University held emergency
01:29:04.800sessions to help their students cope with the loss. And, you know, I have to wonder if Kamala
01:29:10.820Harris had won, would we have seen those same faculty and therapists providing mental health
01:29:18.600help for students? I highly doubt it. Oh, yeah. But, you know, academia is a huge, huge problem
01:29:25.900in my profession. I mean, we have Columbia University that teaches their grad students
01:29:32.320a model of, well, you're either oppressed or you're the oppressor. I'm sorry, that just does
01:29:38.680not work. You're creating a monster when you do that. If you're training a therapist to look at
01:29:43.780every patient as either oppressed or the oppressor, that's not going to move our society
01:29:49.400to a healthier place. I mean, I think I'm pretty sure this was years ago and I was on Fox, but I
01:29:54.460think it was Columbia Law School too that canceled exams. If you were upset over, was it the Ferguson
01:30:00.360and riot, whatever, like you have upset. You don't have to take exams because you're too upset,
01:30:04.280which of course is not how real life works. When you're an actual lawyer, you actually have to go
01:30:09.140into court and argue no matter what's happening in the news, no matter what's happening in your
01:30:13.300private life. And certainly if, if you cannot function in the face of being upset, you're not
01:30:20.740going to make a very good lawyer. It's a very contentious profession. Like you actually do
01:30:26.680need to learn how to function under duress and when things are on fire around you. But that
01:30:32.680little microcosm could be expanded to our society right now with parents creating the safe spaces,
01:30:39.160then the academic environments create the safe spaces, and then they get out into the world
01:30:44.340and they think the safe spaces are an entitlement. Yeah, no, we have an accommodation culture that's
01:30:51.460running rampant. We have therapists who are writing notes for everything, had a bad day,
01:30:56.600well, you need extra time on your test, on your exam at school. Therapists are accommodating,
01:31:03.160and you can even extend this into other issues where therapists will just validate
01:31:09.340everything. If a young boy thinks he might be a girl or vice versa, they'll just validate and
01:31:16.520affirm that. And we've all seen the dangerous path that that can go down. So it's time that0.91
01:31:22.380therapists tap the brakes on all this and start to teach resilience and not just cater to every
01:31:29.060weakness or fragile aspect that they think their patient has.
01:31:34.500Yes, yes, yes. This is like, I just feel like parents have totally misunderstood their job
01:31:40.680in some ways, because when your kid is home from zero to 18 or whenever they're going off to leave
01:31:45.540you. That's your opportunity when they have problems to work with them so that they can
01:31:51.940learn how to solve them. You're in the backup supportive role so that they can learn that skill
01:31:58.400as opposed to a chance for you to exercise your super savvy problem solving skills for them.
01:32:05.900It's like at some point they're not going to live with you. At some point they need to do it on
01:32:10.080their own. Wouldn't you rather they practice while still with you, while you can be of help
01:32:16.300if it falls apart or while they might want some input, but not somebody else to do it.
01:32:21.640And it's just, you can, I can see lots of people doing this. They totally misunderstand it and
01:32:25.620it's to their child's detriment. It's actually sad. You also write, as I point out in the book,
01:32:30.820Therapy Nation, it's called by Jonathan Alpert, how America got hooked on therapy and why it's
01:32:34.820left us more anxious and divided about the division and how, for example, TDS, Trump
01:32:42.640derangement syndrome is a real thing. And it's like you really are sick. Like this thing could0.99
01:32:49.500possibly wind up in the DSM five. It might actually have a place to go in there.
01:32:53.560Yeah, Megan, my favorite topic, TDS. And I did write a piece on the Wall Street Journal about
01:32:59.120that. And I made it very clear that this does not exist right now. It's not in the DSM. And I can't
01:33:05.640imagine that we'll ever see it in the DSM. But the pathology that I'm seeing in patients resembles a
01:33:12.960lot of other disorders. There's a hyper fixation on Trump. They can't sleep because they're
01:33:18.360thinking about Trump. I've even had patients who can't possibly take a vacation that they'll say,
01:33:24.260how can I take a vacation knowing that Trump's in office? It's just absolutely ridiculous. I've0.97
01:33:30.100seen relationships broken up because of Trump. I recall one person, he posted that iconic photo
01:33:38.640of Trump getting up after being shot in Butler. Then his significant other saw that picture that
01:33:46.400he posted. Then they went to their couple's therapist. The couple's therapist said,
01:33:51.220well, what are you going to do about posting that picture? You have to do something about that. You
01:33:55.560can't possibly put such a picture up there. And my patient was like, well, what do you mean? It's
01:34:00.640just an iconic photo. I'm not a very political person. I just happen to like the photo. And
01:34:06.700the therapist made him feel like there was something wrong with him. So we have therapists
01:34:11.540that are acting as social justice warriors rather than clinicians. It's absolutely absurd what's
01:34:17.840going on. TDS seems I mean, it seems like a very, very bad affliction, truly. Like I'd rather I
01:34:25.060think have OCD. I'd rather have tics. I just feel like because once you have the TDS, it ruins and
01:34:31.900runs your life. Everything is put through the prism of Trump. How how does how is Trump to blame?
01:34:40.800What am I going to do about Trump? And it's very unhealthy to spend that much time thinking about
01:34:44.980your president. It is. And, you know, just to look at the other side, I've had plenty of patients who
01:34:50.700hate it, disliked Joe Biden or Kamala Harris, but they didn't sit up at night thinking about him.
01:34:57.360They certainly never wanted him, those people to be killed. And the difference is on the left,
01:35:02.500I have patients, whether they're in their 20s, 50s, 60s, and even older, who actually want Trump0.97
01:35:09.580to be killed. And, you know, that's just, to me, sick, pathologic thinking. You should never want0.94
01:35:16.420a president to be shot. And, you know, all you have to do is look at our history and the unrest
01:35:21.760that this could cause if it ever happened. But they're not looking at it like that. They're just
01:35:26.180their hatred towards Trump is so intense that they can't see the bigger picture.
01:35:31.700Is it something about him that's doing that to them? Like he's just too combative and he's too
01:35:39.000strong? Or is it something about them that's doing that to them? Well, that's a very good
01:35:43.480question. And I think it's probably both. One of the things that I think it is, they just,
01:35:48.360they still, all these years later, just cannot believe that Trump is the president.
01:35:53.940Trump, the entertainer, Trump, the businessman. And they question, well, how could someone like
01:35:59.340that become president? And they just, they don't understand it. They just haven't accepted it.
01:36:05.080And after Trump was elected the first time, I had patients who were telling me they were going to flee the country, withdraw their investments, the world is ending, the country's ending.
01:36:16.280Of course, none of them left the country.
01:36:18.560And then that mentality, those beliefs became hardened.
01:36:22.960And then fast forward to the second election, and it's even worse because now they want Trump dead.
01:36:30.100And, like, I don't care. Like, you should never hope for the president to be shot, whether it's Biden or Trump or any president. And if you look back.
01:36:38.280What do you think? I was just going to say, just again, we're speaking with Jonathan Alpert. His new book is Therapy Nation. I don't understand, though, like as somebody who's had multiple tussles with President Trump when he's president, when he wasn't, I never got the TDS.
01:36:56.260and I look at the people who get the TDS
01:37:23.440Here's the rest of the news, et cetera.0.95
01:37:25.040And there are others who he takes over like Rosie O'Donnell. She blames her herpes on Donald Trump. She moved out of the country. Ellen DeGeneres moved out of the country like they get Bruce Springsteen, Robert De Niro.1.00
01:37:41.940Like, it's taken over their art, their personality, their lives.
01:37:47.600It's truly, it's like, how can some still function in this world?
01:37:51.400And even people like I just had, you know, some things I don't like about them and things
01:38:35.320You know, whether it's a career, family, friends, hobbies, religion, whatever it is, there are so many things that are much more important than than Trump and friends and family should absolutely come before before Trump.
01:38:51.460And unfortunately, we have we have mental health experts on national TV saying if you don't like the way that your friends or family voted, just cut them out.
01:39:01.580you don't need to attend their Thanksgiving dinner. And that's the advice that we have on
01:39:06.380shows like MSNBC and the like. They're dividing our country. That's my subtitle, how they're0.98
01:39:13.920dividing this country. And that's not the advice I would ever give. I would say, look, you should
01:39:20.680rise above politics. Like, where do you connect? If only we could get back to the days of maybe
01:39:27.040when Reagan was in office, neighbors could still get along despite having different signs in their
01:39:33.200front yard for whether it's Reagan or someone else. But we're not. We're so divided. And again,
01:39:40.600a lot of this I talk about in my book, how my profession is responsible for that. I actually
01:39:46.960know therapists who refuse to treat someone if they voted for Trump. Can you imagine?
01:39:52.980oh my gosh no kidding can you imagine going into the er uh maybe wearing a maga hat and the doctor
01:40:01.060turning you down oh that's disgusting i mean that's truly a violation of the hippocratic oath
01:40:07.160um again the book is therapy nation well worth your time the author is jonathan alpert my guest
01:40:12.480now it this discussion reminds me of this woman we featured on the show a couple of years ago
01:40:18.700speaking of the young people like signing on to every disorder which somehow makes them feel good
01:40:24.080about themselves as opposed to bad about themselves this was april 2023 it was in new mexico a woman
01:40:29.800was pulled over for driving on the wrong side of the road she was clearly intoxicated and accused
01:40:35.800of such and she played every victim card in the book look at this soundbite i have like really
01:40:43.120bad social anxiety and stuff. I get you. Back back here, please. Miss Perry? I'm non-binary,
01:40:56.440so. Okay. What do you go by? Kai. How can I refer to you tonight? Kai? Okay. Hey, I'm
01:41:03.140smelling alcohol. I know. How much have you consumed tonight? Probably three drinks. I
01:41:07.780need to run you through some tests right now. Stand facing me, please. But I just want you
01:41:11.120know that I also have very bad social anxiety. You and me both. Okay. Any recent head trauma,
01:41:19.360traumatic brain injuries, anything I need to know about? Mental, yes. Focus on my finger,
01:41:25.560please. I am. You're just like trying to intimidate me. I don't know how I'm trying to do that.
01:41:31.900This is the test. As you know, as an indigenous person and there's a bunch of going around,
01:41:36.760I'm sorry, but it's just for me to be on my toes.