The Megyn Kelly Show - Defund Fallout, Arizona Showdown, and the Hunter Biden Probe, with Rafael Mangual, Karrin Taylor Robson, Jonna Spilbor, and Mark Eiglarsh ｜ Ep. 363

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00:00:31.220 Welcome to The Megyn Kelly Show, your home for open, honest and provocative conversations.

00:00:42.100 Hey everyone, I'm Megyn Kelly. Welcome to The Megyn Kelly Show and happy Friday.

00:00:46.580 We have a jam-packed show for you today.

00:00:48.560 Two Kellys Court originals are here, Johnis Bilboer and Mark Eiglarsh,

00:00:52.300 meaning I've been having these guys on Kellys Court since it was Kendall's Court.

00:00:56.560 And I was just starting at Fox News in 2004.

00:01:00.820 Holy Lord, getting long in the tooth.

00:01:04.160 But that's how good they are.

00:01:05.640 They withstood the test of time and they'll be here in our second hour

00:01:09.340 to get into our juicy legal cases.

00:01:12.700 Hunter Biden, Steve Bannon and Amber Heard all on the docket.

00:01:17.720 Plus, earlier this week, I spoke to Trump-backed Arizona gubernatorial candidate Carrie Lake

00:01:22.180 and made an offer to her Pence-backed rival to come on the show. 1.00

00:01:26.200 Well, she took us up on it.

00:01:27.880 Karen Taylor Robeson will be here today to respond to charges that she is, quote, 1.00

00:01:31.740 a rhino and will ask about the former vice president's endorsement

00:01:35.960 and what this race tells us about the future of the Republican Party.

00:01:39.820 We're seeing these intra-party wars pop up state after state.

00:01:43.260 But we begin with Rising Crime.

00:01:46.260 My first guest has a book coming out in a few days that takes a deep dive into the criminal justice system.

00:01:53.100 He looks into the claims that activists have been making about police,

00:01:57.420 criminals and the defund the police movement and finds out if the stats back any of these charges up.

00:02:04.060 He also offers thoughtful ways that we can make things better.

00:02:06.760 Raphael Mangual is a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute and author of Criminal Injustice,

00:02:14.400 what the push for decarceration and depolicing gets wrong and who it hurts the most.

00:02:23.100 Your business doesn't move in a straight line.

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00:02:55.900 Raphael, welcome to the show.

00:02:57.580 Thank you so much for having me.

00:02:58.820 My gosh, you knew how to hit your book at exactly the right time.

00:03:03.000 Yeah, I guess so.

00:03:05.020 You know, crime kind of, you know, has been an issue for a really long time.

00:03:09.920 But unfortunately, we are in the middle of a bit of a crisis.

00:03:14.720 You know, 2020 saw the single largest homicide increase in American history year over year,

00:03:21.080 which is the year I started working on this book.

00:03:23.960 So hopefully it makes an impact and encourages some debate that can get us through some of

00:03:30.280 the issues that are holding us back on its front.

00:03:32.200 We can move in the right direction.

00:03:33.120 Can you just say that again?

00:03:33.900 2020 saw the single largest, go ahead.

00:03:37.720 The single largest spike in homicides year over year in American history is 30% across the

00:03:44.460 country, which is, you know, a huge jump.

00:03:47.500 Of course, it was larger in some cities, smaller in other cities.

00:03:51.040 I get into this in the book a little bit, but it's kind of a colloquialism to talk about

00:03:57.180 crime in national terms.

00:03:59.680 And it's understandable.

00:04:00.740 It helps simplify the conversation for some people.

00:04:04.140 And, you know, I get that.

00:04:05.420 But sometimes it distracts us from a really important reality, which is that crime is a

00:04:09.820 problem that is not and has never been equally distributed across the country.

00:04:13.820 You know, if you were to be randomly dropped by, you know, parachute over someplace in the

00:04:19.700 United States, chances are pretty good you're going to land somewhere with a murder rate

00:04:23.640 of zero.

00:04:24.520 You repeat that experiment, say, 10,000 times.

00:04:27.160 And, you know, there'll be a handful of times where you land in a place that rivals some of

00:04:31.400 the most dangerous neighborhoods on Earth.

00:04:32.800 And that's what really drives national crime rates.

00:04:37.520 And we have to remember that there are people living in these places, good people who deserve

00:04:42.400 safety, who are just trying to go about their lives.

00:04:44.960 And, you know, they're living in neighborhoods with homicide rates, you know, 20, 30, 40 times

00:04:49.080 the national rate.

00:04:51.020 And when you read your book and anything at City Journal or Manhattan is to do all the

00:04:55.540 stuff is so great, Raphael.

00:04:57.180 So grateful to you, all of you guys there.

00:04:59.380 Um, you see the truth, which is what happens is the media and the Democrats find one cherry

00:05:06.940 picked case of cops who do the wrong thing, cops like a Derek Chauvin with George Floyd,

00:05:13.940 and they put it on loop and they try to say it represents all police officers.

00:05:18.820 And then policing in the neighborhood goes down.

00:05:21.960 The cops feel demoralized.

00:05:23.720 Um, crime goes up and murder spike sometimes in record levels in the very communities that

00:05:31.240 the people who got the firestorm started in the way they did in the dishonest way they

00:05:35.540 did claim they want to protect.

00:05:38.600 It is black and brown people who are in those numbers that caught in the 2020 record setting 0.94

00:05:46.180 spike. 0.99

00:05:46.560 Those are the people getting killed.

00:05:47.920 Yeah, they bore the absolute brunt of that spike.

00:05:51.860 I mean, to begin with, you know, the, the, if you just look at homicide victimization rates,

00:05:55.160 it's about 10 X for black males than it is for, for white males.

00:05:58.920 So when we talk about, you know, uh, violent crime in New York city, for example, every single

00:06:04.000 year for which we have data here going back to at least 2008, a minimum, a minimum of 95%

00:06:11.000 of all shooting victims are either black or Hispanic, almost all of them male.

00:06:13.820 That is one of the starkest and most persistent disparities in the criminal justice data, uh,

00:06:20.280 that you can find.

00:06:21.320 And it gets nowhere near as much attention as the disparities, uh, of enforcement statistics.

00:06:27.040 And, and that is of course the focus of, you know, people who have been critical of the

00:06:31.940 criminal justice system and of policing.

00:06:33.340 And you're exactly right.

00:06:34.740 They take these really terrible cases and these are terrible cases, right?

00:06:38.800 And I'm by no means in my argument that the criminal justice system is perfect.

00:06:42.900 The policing is perfect.

00:06:43.960 It's a human endeavor.

00:06:45.400 Any human endeavor is going to be susceptible to human error, even malice and malevolence,

00:06:50.660 right?

00:06:50.820 So that exists.

00:06:51.580 There's, there is a such thing as a bad cop.

00:06:54.380 Um, but we live in a really, really big country with 330 million people in a country this size,

00:06:59.980 even really rare things happen every day.

00:07:02.540 And if you have, uh, an institution like the, the sort of mainstream legacy media, that's

00:07:09.400 dedicated to playing up one of those really rare things, it can make it seem like this

00:07:15.460 happens on a regular basis.

00:07:16.640 And then that distorts our perception of, of what the issue is.

00:07:20.180 I mean, sometimes I'll give, you know, public talks and I'll pull audience members and I'll

00:07:23.820 say like, how often do you think police officers use force?

00:07:26.820 And, you know, sometimes people say, oh, it's 15% or sometimes it's 50% or 60%.

00:07:31.760 It's less than 1% for deadly force.

00:07:36.040 It's, it's less, it's like a less than a fraction of 1%.

00:07:39.680 Um, but this is not something that say that one more time of the days on the job, like

00:07:45.140 less than 1% of what the days that they're less than 1% of all arrests that are affected

00:07:49.960 or affected without the use of force.

00:07:51.700 So, uh, just one example of this, there was a study, um, that looked at a million calls

00:07:56.000 for service across three police departments, one in North Carolina, one in Arizona, and

00:07:59.840 one in Louisiana, that million calls for service.

00:08:03.880 Those resulted in 114,000 criminal arrests.

00:08:07.320 And that entire data set, there is just one fatal police shooting captured.

00:08:11.920 And in 99.7% of the arrests captured in that data set, no force was used to affect the

00:08:17.440 arrest.

00:08:17.760 And in 98% of the cases in which force was used to affect the arrest, there was either

00:08:22.240 no injury or mild injury, uh, to the suspect.

00:08:25.040 Like this is completely at odds with what the dominant narrative about policing is in

00:08:29.080 America, right?

00:08:29.920 We're all told that police are these sort of trigger happy, violence prone Neanderthals 0.99

00:08:34.920 who are just going out there hunting black people. 0.96

00:08:36.820 Like LeBron James said, it's just not true.

00:08:39.680 Um, police are incredibly restrained that again, that doesn't mean that they don't make

00:08:43.340 mistakes and that there aren't examples that you can pull, um, and essentially cherry

00:08:47.900 pick to, to try and create the sort of distorted image that I think a lot of Americans have

00:08:52.040 in their head about policing, but that doesn't do us any good.

00:08:54.260 Um, what it does is it encourages both a pullback on the part of officers who are understandably

00:09:00.940 afraid that should they find themselves in a controversial use of force, that they're

00:09:04.320 not going to get the benefit of the doubt, that they're not going to get a fair shake,

00:09:08.100 um, when, when that case is being evaluated, whether it's by the executives in their department

00:09:12.800 or, um, you know, by, by the, by the court of public opinion.

00:09:16.520 And so they pull back.

00:09:18.080 And then on top of that, it encourages a policy regime, a policy agenda that we've seen over

00:09:23.060 the last two years really get accelerated that is sort of singularly aimed at constraining

00:09:28.160 the power of police, defunding them, minimizing the resources at their disposal.

00:09:32.540 And that has costs and it has costs that are disproportionately borne by the places with

00:09:37.680 the highest levels of crime.

00:09:39.460 And, and that's the kind of, you know, sad irony of this whole debate is that, you know,

00:09:43.700 a lot of these reform proposals are advanced in the name of so-called black and brown communities,

00:09:48.860 but these are the places that had benefited the most from the crime declines that policing

00:09:53.400 helped bring about.

00:09:54.760 But if you look at just homicides from 1990 to 2014, it was a massive decrease in the nation's

00:10:00.660 homicide rate.

00:10:01.840 That decrease added 0.14 years to the life expectancy of white men and 1.0 years to the life expectancy

00:10:10.000 of black men.

00:10:10.620 And this is from a study done by a sociologist named Patrick Sharkey.

00:10:14.660 The public health equivalent of that, according to him, was the elimination of obesity altogether.

00:10:21.120 And so what I try to ask people is what sense does it make to claim that the institution of policing

00:10:27.680 and criminal justice writ large is sort of designed and operated to the detriment of black communities?

00:10:33.360 How is that congruous with the reality that when the system achieves its stated ends, which are crime declines,

00:10:39.200 ask any police executive in America, what are you trying to do?

00:10:41.500 They're saying control crime.

00:10:43.220 Well, when that succeeds, when that happens, it's black and brown communities that benefit the most. 1.00

00:10:49.140 So there's a real kind of underlying incongruity and just the basic framing of the argument

00:10:53.200 that I think just doesn't get enough attention and makes for a really just unproductive national conversation.

00:10:59.000 That is so profound.

00:11:00.480 I mean, that's many of us have been saying it in the wake of George Floyd and so on over

00:11:04.420 the past couple of years in particular.

00:11:06.040 But really, the proper response to the, you know, cops are bad. 0.96

00:11:11.240 Cops are racist. 0.93

00:11:12.200 You know, look at George Floyd. 0.97

00:11:13.260 Look at Derek Chauvin is you're having the wrong conversation.

00:11:17.580 You're focused on the wrong thing.

00:11:19.080 That's really the proper response, because if you tell me that that that 95 percent of the

00:11:23.080 murder victims in in America are black and brown people, do we know what the homicide rate or like

00:11:30.600 how many people were killed, like on an average basis?

00:11:33.820 How many people get that?

00:11:35.500 This is shooting victims.

00:11:36.940 This is shooting victims in New York.

00:11:38.600 So, I mean, last year was over a thousand.

00:11:40.860 OK, in New York City.

00:11:42.520 In New York City.

00:11:43.220 Yeah.

00:11:44.020 So you're talking about a thousand people just to take one city as an example. 0.89

00:11:48.180 A thousand people, the 95 percent of whom are black and brown, killed by murder, killed 0.94

00:11:52.080 by shooting shot in a year, shot, not killed. 0.99

00:11:54.380 Yeah, just shot, shot, shot.

00:11:56.060 OK, so we don't look at that at all.

00:11:58.680 Never mind what happens in Chicago, what happens in Baltimore or what happens in Philly.

00:12:02.280 We don't look at that at all.

00:12:03.400 We take one case of a bad cop or an allegedly bad cop and we put it on loop and say that's

00:12:08.240 the problem because it's so much easier to fix.

00:12:10.720 It's so much easier to attack the cops and say bad policing.

00:12:14.040 You know, this is a problem.

00:12:15.500 Racism, as opposed to taking a hard look at why, because in a lot of those cases, it's

00:12:21.180 black on black crime, black on brown crime, whatever.

00:12:24.160 And so that's that's where the media says, hmm, wait, they don't mind covering if the 0.98

00:12:29.740 black cop killing a black defendant or, you know, a suspect, they'll cover that. 0.99

00:12:34.140 They'll say the black cops are racist, too. 0.99

00:12:35.780 They've done that many times. 0.97

00:12:36.800 But they don't want to get into black on black crime or black on brown crime where neither 0.83

00:12:41.740 person has a uniform on at all.

00:12:44.920 And anyone who's called attention to that, like in the media or otherwise, many have been

00:12:49.300 fired for even trying to raise it or contextualize what we're seeing.

00:12:54.260 Why, why, why can't we go there who was, I think, a data journalist at Reuters who lost his job

00:13:01.720 after bringing attention to this kind of thing.

00:13:04.700 And so, yeah, I think I think there's just so much power that was discovered, so much political

00:13:12.940 power discovered in just perpetuating the narrative that these big legacy institutions, policing,

00:13:20.640 prosecution, corrections, that that they were systemically racist.

00:13:24.620 If you can make that claim, you have a foe to fight against.

00:13:27.640 And if you're fighting against a foe, that just makes you attractive to, you know, the

00:13:32.940 public in a way like everyone, everyone loves, you know, kind of an underdog story.

00:13:36.840 Everyone loves someone who's sticking it to the man.

00:13:38.620 Um, and so it helps to kind of ignore the good that the man or the system does.

00:13:44.300 I mean, you know, if you look at just study after study after study, I mean, it's one of

00:13:48.220 the most robust findings in the criminological literature.

00:13:50.720 More policing means less crime and that holds true everywhere.

00:13:55.900 But the effect given where crime concentrates, the effect is more pronounced in black communities. 0.52

00:14:01.100 And so more policing doesn't just mean less crime. 0.90

00:14:03.600 It means less black on black crime, means less black victimization, less brown victimization, 0.98

00:14:08.620 these are precisely the communities that need the most help that already have enough to 0.97

00:14:13.240 deal with.

00:14:13.720 They already have all these other social problems, uh, that they're fighting.

00:14:17.200 And, and so it, it becomes really, really, um, uh, just important to kind of take a step

00:14:23.200 back, reground the debate in, in data and acknowledge that for all of its problems, institutions like

00:14:29.800 police, like in cars, like our, our carceral system, that they exist because there is this underlying

00:14:36.560 reality of, of violence that is again, not equally distributed.

00:14:39.940 Take any city in America, about 5% of street segments are going to see about 50% of all

00:14:44.160 crime.

00:14:45.240 Um, and so that has really profound implications for the rest of the New York city pattern over

00:14:50.540 and over again.

00:14:51.060 It's not just New York.

00:14:51.900 You see that pattern over and over again.

00:14:53.260 And the number of that, that, that experiments are replicated in cities across America and cities

00:14:56.860 across the world.

00:14:57.740 It's just the nature of, of violence.

00:15:00.580 I mean, part of it is just a function of the built environment, right?

00:15:03.140 There, there are studies showing, for example, stand by, cause I actually want to get there

00:15:08.580 in it through a different door.

00:15:10.300 Um, the book, the book talks about sort of why the left doesn't want to go there or what

00:15:16.560 they'll say when it like looking at black on black crime or, you know, minority on minority

00:15:20.500 crime in the major cities.

00:15:21.920 And it says, Oh, you know, they'll talk about poverty, poverty.

00:15:25.280 So it's sort of, it's sort of like, we don't want to go there cause we caused it, you know,

00:15:29.140 where America is not doing its part to help these communities.

00:15:32.120 And that's what leads to crime.

00:15:33.600 So don't lecture me about the crime rate with those people.

00:15:35.660 Cause we should be doing something about that too.

00:15:37.500 And you take that on square and say, Hey, it's not true.

00:15:41.700 And then say, B, here's what's actually leading to crime.

00:15:44.800 Here's what actually we might want to consider.

00:15:47.880 It's not necessarily that we can fix it, but here's, what's actually driving criminals to

00:15:52.520 commit crimes.

00:15:53.160 So let's start with a, it's the poverty rate.

00:15:55.600 It's the poverty rate.

00:15:56.400 And that's bad.

00:15:57.080 America's bad.

00:15:59.300 Yeah.

00:15:59.520 I mean, look, it's, it's, it's just not true.

00:16:01.620 There is not a consistent relationship with things like between things like poverty,

00:16:06.060 unemployment, economic inequality, and violent crime.

00:16:10.580 There's, there's some relationship between those things and property crime, things like

00:16:14.120 theft, which is understandable, right?

00:16:15.660 If you're poor, you're more likely to steal, but that's not the majority of, of, of violence,

00:16:21.400 when we're talking about shootings, robberies, rapes, homicides, that, that is not driven

00:16:27.740 by socioeconomic deprivation.

00:16:30.040 We know this because it's just what the data says.

00:16:32.580 When take New York city, for example, 1989, which is the year before homicides peak in

00:16:36.880 New York in 1990 with 2,262 killings.

00:16:40.020 Um, the poverty rate in New York city was actually slightly lower than it was in 2016.

00:16:45.740 Why pick 2016?

00:16:47.020 Because that's the year before our Valley number of homicides of 292.

00:16:51.780 So here you have poverty moving in the wrong direction, albeit slightly.

00:16:56.040 And yet you have this massive, massive decline, uh, in homicides.

00:16:59.880 And I have yet to hear the sort of socioeconomic explanation, uh, for New York's, uh, uh, decline

00:17:05.980 in homicides.

00:17:06.620 It's, it just, it's, it's not out there because it's not a socioeconomic phenomenon.

00:17:10.500 It's a, it had a lot more to do with the fact that we reinvested in policing.

00:17:14.660 We revolutionized policing, but let me stand you by standing by because it's taking my brain

00:17:19.640 like one 10 second delay to catch up with your information, which is also good.

00:17:24.060 So what you're saying is over a somewhat on a 20 plus year period, the poverty rate basically

00:17:29.620 stayed the same, stayed the same.

00:17:31.080 And so you would think that if poverty is what's causing violence, criminal and violent

00:17:36.260 crimes, that the violent crime rate would have stayed the same, right?

00:17:39.560 Cause we did nothing to solve poverty, but it didn't.

00:17:42.500 If you look at what happened in New York, the crime rate went way down, like way down.

00:17:48.080 So what even the, the statistician, the, the philosopher, the, the scientist has to look

00:17:52.640 at, well, what else was happening in New York city during that time?

00:17:55.580 And you in the book go into that.

00:17:57.660 I mean, we increased policing.

00:17:59.900 We took a much more aggressive approach toward crime and incarceration and truth in sentencing

00:18:06.740 and so on, right?

00:18:07.520 Like we got very tough on crime in New York in a way that really did affect the crime rate.

00:18:13.500 So there's, there's real data there from which you can, I can extrapolate.

00:18:17.880 You may find it controversial.

00:18:19.520 You may not like the methods, but we know how to decrease crime.

00:18:23.140 Absolutely.

00:18:23.660 We've done it.

00:18:24.240 We've done it recently and we've done it in multiple jurisdictions.

00:18:29.000 And so it's really just a political choice that we're making now to sort of forego these

00:18:34.540 time-tested methods of, of keeping crime under control.

00:18:37.700 And, you know, if you want to make the argument that, you know, just things like, you know,

00:18:42.200 incarceration, policing, hotspot policing specifically, you know, things like truth

00:18:48.400 and sentencing actually extending the amount of time that repeat offenders are going to spend

00:18:51.980 behind bars, which is less time that they're going to be up on the street.

00:18:55.200 You know, if you want to oppose those things by saying that the, the, the sort of social costs

00:18:59.680 of that kind of program outweigh the potential benefits, then by all means make that case,

00:19:04.740 but make it honestly.

00:19:06.440 Accept that there are going to be costs and try and convince people, you know, that those

00:19:10.220 costs are worth bearing.

00:19:11.020 What people do instead is they just try to say, oh, we can safely cut incarceration in

00:19:15.140 half.

00:19:15.440 We can safely defund the police.

00:19:17.000 They don't actually help.

00:19:18.540 All we have to do is just reinvest that money in, you know, other social programs, which is,

00:19:23.400 you know, frankly, bunk.

00:19:24.600 I mean, again, we've just seen so many shocks to the system, whether it's changes in unemployment.

00:19:30.880 Look at the great recession, right?

00:19:32.860 The unemployment rate nearly doubles across the country.

00:19:35.200 The homicide rate declines by 15% during that period.

00:19:37.700 Crime didn't go, violent crime didn't go up during the great depression.

00:19:42.140 You know, it's, it's just, it's long past time for us to let go of that trope and just

00:19:47.700 start dealing with the reality.

00:19:50.040 The argument I hear about incarceration in one of them is it takes these men, again, as

00:19:56.400 we pointed out, a lot of times minority men away from their families.

00:19:59.140 And that's part of the problem to begin with is that, you know, fatherless homes lead to

00:20:03.520 criminal, you know, kids who don't get ahead and then they become criminals and blah, blah,

00:20:08.520 blah, on and on the circle goes.

00:20:10.720 So we're against incarceration and we're certainly against lengthy incarceration and mandatory

00:20:15.840 minimums and so on.

00:20:17.320 You take that on as well.

00:20:19.640 Yeah.

00:20:19.940 I mean, well, there's, there's a big assumption underlying that argument, which is that the

00:20:24.240 sort of men that are likely to find themselves behind bars would otherwise be sort of reliable

00:20:30.040 sources of economic and emotional support if they were able to remain with their families.

00:20:35.120 That is a very big assumption that is based on zero data.

00:20:40.800 If you just look at the, the, the incarcerated population, which you're going to find is a

00:20:46.640 really large group of highly antisocial individuals.

00:20:49.500 And there is a large body of, of, of sociological research showing that when you expose children

00:20:55.600 to highly antisocial parents, their outcomes are worse, often worse than just the, the

00:21:01.640 bad outcomes associated with being raised in a single parent family.

00:21:04.680 Right.

00:21:04.900 So we know that two parents are better than one, generally speaking, but if one of those

00:21:09.420 parents is highly antisocial in their disposition, it may actually be worse to have both parents

00:21:13.980 present than it would be to have the one pro social parent absent.

00:21:18.060 And, and that, you know, I think shocks a lot of people, but I mean, just the, the numbers

00:21:22.680 are astounding take something like, like antisocial personality disorder.

00:21:26.020 This is, you know, a very sort of serious psychological diagnosis that, you know, sort of takes the

00:21:32.040 form of lacking remorse and, you know, outward facing aggression and lack of patience and

00:21:37.580 empathy.

00:21:38.640 The prevalence rate for men in, in just the general public for antisocial personality disorder

00:21:44.660 is about two to 4%.

00:21:45.800 In prison settings, it can range from as high as 40 to 70%, right?

00:21:51.100 So on what grounds do we posit that we can release people from prison or not incarcerate

00:21:57.800 them in the first place on the belief that they're going to go and be good fathers and

00:22:03.220 good role models in their community?

00:22:05.020 I mean, the, the, just the data just isn't there.

00:22:07.240 I mean, everything from substance use disorders.

00:22:09.280 Doesn't that get to a cause and effect question, right?

00:22:11.000 Because this is what the people, for example, of no bail are saying.

00:22:14.540 Like you take a relatively decent person who falls off the non-crime wagon once, commits

00:22:23.500 a mild crime and winds up sitting in Rikers for, you know, a year because they can't afford

00:22:30.260 the bail.

00:22:30.720 And then they finally get tried and they put in and get a too long sentence in, in with

00:22:36.240 all these maniacs that kind of helps turn them into a criminal where, you know, if you'd

00:22:41.820 let them out on bail and stay with the family and maybe we could have kept them on the good

00:22:45.560 side instead of the bad side.

00:22:47.700 Yeah.

00:22:47.840 Look, that happens, but almost never.

00:22:49.840 It's just not a particularly common outcome.

00:22:54.200 People have it in their head that incarceration is this very, very sort of a common response

00:22:59.920 to, to low level criminality, even high level criminality.

00:23:03.120 But the reality is, is that only 40% of felony convictions in the States result in a post

00:23:08.520 conviction prison sentence.

00:23:10.260 So 60% of people who are convicted of felonies are not then going to prison.

00:23:14.660 They're either getting out with time served in pre-child detention or on, you know, sort

00:23:18.920 of pre-trial release conditions, or they're getting probation or a conditional discharge

00:23:24.100 where, you know, it's like you behave for this period of time and then we'll, we'll

00:23:27.260 drop the case against you.

00:23:29.060 So we'll defer conviction.

00:23:31.540 So yeah, there, there just isn't a large group of people who are committing low level

00:23:36.020 offenses who don't have serious criminal histories and then are getting shafted by the justice

00:23:39.580 system, but, you know, being forced to stay inside again, that doesn't mean that you

00:23:43.560 can't sort of cherry pick cases in which this does happen.

00:23:46.440 And I've been critical of sort of heavy reliance on cash bail in so far as I think there's

00:23:51.280 something to the critique that you don't want to end up with a system in which someone

00:23:55.280 who is dangerous, but wealthy gets to buy their freedom, whereas someone who is relatively

00:23:59.920 harmless, but indigent gets stuck behind bars. 0.79

00:24:02.640 So my answer is, well, let's just reorient the inquiry around risk.

00:24:07.160 And when someone turns out to be risky, we'll hold them.

00:24:10.120 And if they're not risky, we'll release them.

00:24:11.980 So that, that seems to solve, you know, the sort of central critique of, of cash bail

00:24:16.520 in the United States.

00:24:17.540 Unfortunately, there is not a real appetite for doing that, even in the jurisdictions that

00:24:22.280 have sort of made their bail reforms in such a way that judges have this option, you see

00:24:28.460 a reluctance to exercise it.

00:24:29.960 And part of that has to do with, I think, the mischaracterization of a body of research

00:24:34.200 that shows kind of what you described when you were framing your question, which is that

00:24:37.880 there is evidence showing that for some people, for some people, exposure to incarceration

00:24:43.680 will produce worse outcomes insofar as it will make them more likely to commit crimes

00:24:47.740 in the future.

00:24:48.860 Now, the way that you study that is you have to create circumstances under which the decision

00:24:54.240 to incarcerate is random.

00:24:56.240 But that decision is never random, right?

00:24:57.640 They're really good reasons why people get incarcerated, and they're really good reasons

00:25:00.820 why people get spared incarceration.

00:25:02.900 So what researchers do is they, they find a population of offenders who are engaged in

00:25:07.880 criminal conduct that isn't so bad that it like becomes obvious that they'll get incarcerated,

00:25:13.000 but also isn't so minor that it becomes obvious they'll be spared incarceration.

00:25:16.800 So they, they call these people on the margins of incarceration.

00:25:20.380 And then they look at the judges in that jurisdiction, and they categorize them as, you know, sort of moderate,

00:25:25.400 lenient, and then really harsh.

00:25:26.900 And they only look at the harsh and lenient judges, and the cases get randomly assigned

00:25:30.980 to those judges.

00:25:31.620 And they look at people who the harsh judges incarcerate, and they look at people on the

00:25:35.300 margins who the lenient judges set free.

00:25:37.640 And yes, the ones that get incarcerated have worse outcomes.

00:25:40.720 The problem, though, is that that research is then grafted on to a body of offenders that

00:25:45.880 is not at all represented by the people in those studies.

00:25:48.640 The typical jail inmate, the typical prison inmate is not the marginal offender, right?

00:25:55.020 These are people who are, have a much more serious risk profile.

00:25:59.660 And so, yeah, I'm all for, you know, not incarcerating first time offenders with no criminal

00:26:04.540 history and, you know, who have engaged in low level misconduct.

00:26:08.240 But that doesn't mean that it's a good idea to release somebody who has 15, 16, 20 prior

00:26:13.540 arrests, which we see very commonly in the stories of really heinous crimes that I'm just

00:26:19.280 frankly sick and tired of reading about.

00:26:21.340 I mean, you know, how many times do you read a story about a homicide?

00:26:24.320 And then it's like, oh, well, the person arrested was out on probation or out on parole and has

00:26:29.120 five prior convictions, 15 prior arrests.

00:26:31.200 Especially now, we have these soft on crime DAs in city after city.

00:26:35.500 Thankfully, I mean, like there was good news this week out in San Francisco.

00:26:39.000 We know Chesa Boudin got recalled in his replacement as DA, fired 15 DAs. 0.79

00:26:44.480 Yay, go, right?

00:26:46.020 Like, get rid of them.

00:26:47.040 If you don't want to prosecute crime, get the hell out of the DA's office.

00:26:50.280 So like bit by bit, as we see these experiments in, as you would call it, criminal injustice,

00:26:55.980 fail.

00:26:56.920 Even far left cities like San Francisco are coming back to reality and saying, hold on,

00:27:02.980 this is insanity.

00:27:04.680 No one can live like this.

00:27:06.180 All of these these approaches have been afforded to these cities by years of tough criminal justice

00:27:14.320 programs that gave them safety and security and a false belief that they could reverse

00:27:19.840 all the policies and have the same outcomes.

00:27:21.760 Right.

00:27:22.760 That's exactly right.

00:27:23.820 I mean, you know, is there a case to be made that there was an overcorrection in the 80s

00:27:28.480 and 90s in the punitive direction?

00:27:30.460 Yeah.

00:27:30.820 But the answer to that is not to throw the baby out with the bathwater, right?

00:27:33.800 Like we should be trying to reform at the margins and make the system as fair as possible

00:27:37.860 without eschewing the benefits that were associated with the program of policing and incarceration

00:27:44.360 that helped bring about one of the greatest achievements in urban American history, which was our

00:27:49.260 violent crime decline.

00:27:50.260 I mean, I don't think people fully appreciate what it means to a community to have crime

00:27:56.460 under control that allows kids to concentrate in school in ways that they just wouldn't

00:28:00.960 be able to if violence was more prevalent.

00:28:03.200 It encourages economic investment that creates jobs that gives people security and the sense

00:28:09.440 of security that allows them to go out into the world and be productive.

00:28:12.540 If that is lost, that's how you get these sort of generational, you know, pockets of poverty

00:28:19.720 and disinvestment that no one wants to see.

00:28:22.940 And I think part of the problem is, is that the criminal justice debate is sort of framed

00:28:26.940 as one between compassionate supporters of these communities and people who, you know,

00:28:32.240 just just don't like black and brown people. 1.00

00:28:34.220 And that couldn't be further from the truth.

00:28:36.320 I mean, the people I know making the sort of cases that I'm making genuinely want to see

00:28:41.120 these communities better off.

00:28:42.520 We're aware of what the research says.

00:28:44.500 Well, I mean, Raphael, it could be the truth.

00:28:46.260 It's just that the labels are switched.

00:28:49.320 That's the truth, right?

00:28:50.440 Because these Democrats, if they really cared about these black and brown communities, they

00:28:54.420 wouldn't be using them to advance their own quest for power or electoral hopes, et cetera.

00:29:00.920 They'd be taking an open, honest look at the problem and for real solutions like people

00:29:05.580 like you are and our other friends at the Manhattan Institute.

00:29:09.700 Yeah, no, I mean, it's it really is frustrating, in part because a lot of the people kind of

00:29:14.580 making the most outrageous claims about criminal justice, they would never step foot in some

00:29:22.000 of the neighborhoods that have the biggest crime problems.

00:29:24.040 They don't live there.

00:29:24.880 They wouldn't dare walk through those neighborhoods at night.

00:29:26.840 They wouldn't send their kids to school there.

00:29:28.600 They have no idea what it's like, you know, to wake up in the morning as a 15 year old kid

00:29:33.720 and dread going to school, not because you didn't study for, you know, a pop quiz or

00:29:37.860 something like that, but because, you know, there's a gangbanger in the school that you've

00:29:41.820 got bees with that that that wants to jump you and just the anxiety, you know, like they

00:29:46.700 have no idea what it's like to hear gunshots at night.

00:29:50.780 And I think there needs to be a just sort of real conversation and a real exposure of these

00:29:59.500 people to the realities of violence.

00:30:01.300 And I think that would actually be a really good first step in sort of taking us back.

00:30:06.820 I feel like so I'm 51 years old and I do feel like people 10 years older and 10 years

00:30:12.580 younger.

00:30:13.780 That's the group that really, really gets this that gets this easily because we lived

00:30:17.780 it.

00:30:18.200 You know, I grew up first 10 years in the 1970s when crime was terrible.

00:30:22.280 My parents didn't turn on the news every night, but I saw enough of it to know it was very

00:30:26.680 dangerous out there.

00:30:27.640 We were in New York state.

00:30:29.100 I go down to visit my Nana, who was right outside of New York City, and there was no

00:30:33.080 way we'd go into New York.

00:30:34.560 I mean, it was a hellhole at that time.

00:30:36.920 And then you get into the mid 80s and things starts, you know, people start taking a hard

00:30:40.920 look at this.

00:30:41.640 And through the 90s, you know, to start to come out of it.

00:30:44.740 And then this sort of glorious period where the crime situation had largely gotten under

00:30:50.300 control in many places like New York, where I then moved with my entire family.

00:30:54.780 And now I'm on the back end watching it deteriorate as a result of people forgetting the history

00:31:00.200 or just never knowing about it at all and thinking there is a new way of finding safety

00:31:05.600 and security and a kinder, gentler way with criminals.

00:31:08.760 And it's just there's no empirical evidence for their approach.

00:31:12.140 And now the empirical evidence is disproving all of their hopes and dreams.

00:31:15.760 Will they listen?

00:31:17.000 Rafael, I got to run, but I want people to buy this book.

00:31:19.240 This is an important book.

00:31:20.460 And you guys do great work, you in particular.

00:31:23.260 So to tell the audience again, it's criminal injustice, injustice with the push for decarceration

00:31:29.200 and depolicing gets wrong and who it hurts most.

00:31:33.460 We're not done with this debate.

00:31:34.860 You're going to need the facts.

00:31:36.320 Rafael provides them.

00:31:37.760 Rafael, man, go all the best with it.

00:31:39.980 Thank you.

00:31:41.100 Good luck with it.

00:31:41.920 Up next, it's Trump versus Pence today in Arizona.

00:31:45.200 And we have got one of the candidates smack dab in the middle of that fight. 1.00

00:31:50.460 On Monday, we brought you the Trump back candidate for the GOP nomination for governor in Arizona,

00:32:01.780 Carrie Lake.

00:32:02.880 Today, we have her main opponent, Karen Taylor Robeson, and she has been endorsed by Mike Pence.

00:32:08.800 So it's kind of interesting, right?

00:32:09.940 You got Trump, Pence splitting on the candidates.

00:32:12.640 We've seen this in a couple of states, but that's one of the many reasons all eyes are on

00:32:17.620 this primary race in Arizona.

00:32:20.920 Karen, welcome to the show.

00:32:21.980 Thank you, Megan.

00:32:23.160 Thank you for having me.

00:32:24.620 Yeah, my pleasure.

00:32:25.680 All right.

00:32:25.960 So I don't know if you saw your opponent's interview on the show, but her essential description 0.76

00:32:32.440 of you was as a rhino Republican in name only.

00:32:36.940 She thinks you're sort of a soft Republican, as our our viewers today might understand that

00:32:42.960 that word is used about people like Susan Collins of Maine or Mitt Romney.

00:32:46.680 And she ties you very much to John McCain and Arizona Governor Doug Ducey, who she says

00:32:51.380 are also not on board with the sort of America first MAGA agenda agenda, which I think is is

00:32:58.300 why she uses the term rhino.

00:33:00.360 Want to give you the chance to respond to that?

00:33:02.320 Well, I am a lifelong Republican.

00:33:04.960 I'm an unapologetic conservative.

00:33:06.560 And people who know me know that I check every box, you know, I believe our rights come from

00:33:12.460 God and not the government.

00:33:13.780 I believe in the right to life.

00:33:15.420 I've been pro-life my entire life, always, always have been, always will be a second

00:33:20.780 amendment.

00:33:21.280 I mean, I could go through the entire conservative platform and I check every box and I have been

00:33:26.800 conservative my entire life.

00:33:28.600 I have worked for Republican candidates.

00:33:30.420 I have worked for conservative causes.

00:33:32.440 I worked for Ronald Reagan was my first job out of college.

00:33:37.340 I worked for Republican candidates, you know, since before I could even vote.

00:33:41.520 And so it's kind of rich coming from a woman who walked doors for Barack Obama, who donated

00:33:46.480 to Barack Obama, you know, for her to to name call and call others a rhino. 0.87

00:33:52.700 She's an actress. 1.00

00:33:54.260 And with every single passing day, people are beginning to understand they can't trust her

00:33:59.080 because she's very her her actions are very, very different than her words.

00:34:05.580 In fact, Fox News just this week reported on a day.

00:34:10.140 They had somebody found a meme that she posted about a week before Donald Trump was inaugurated.

00:34:17.620 That basically it was a picture of Donald Trump said, not my president.

00:34:20.980 And even had suggestions for revenge donations to Planned Parenthood, to the ACLU, to the NAACP with hashtag not my president.

00:34:33.040 And so, you know, while I was out raising money for and and supporting Donald Trump, both in 2016 and again in 2020,

00:34:42.580 she was she was out telling people she he was not her president.

00:34:46.420 So it's very interesting to be called a rhino by somebody with that kind of background.

00:34:52.520 She her campaign did respond to Fox saying this is very clearly a news anchors post reporting that there was outrage against President Trump's election and asking if people were going to visibly protest.

00:35:03.320 In other words, this isn't her sentiment.

00:35:05.260 This is a news anchor saying this sentiment is out there.

00:35:08.140 Would you like to weigh in on it?

00:35:10.500 You know, do you plan on doing any of these things to protest him?

00:35:13.480 That's that's why that's what she said.

00:35:15.720 But I think, you know, on our program, she admitted that she had supported some Democrats in the past and had different party affiliations.

00:35:22.260 But she thinks that is an asset for her because that describes Donald Trump.

00:35:29.860 It describes some of his base who used to be Democrats, but just got so disaffected that they they came over to the Republican side.

00:35:37.580 She thinks that's an asset for her.

00:35:39.620 For you, I think she thinks you're too soft today on some of these core issues that are important to the MAGA crew.

00:35:46.180 What do you think?

00:35:47.500 Well, I think her overnight conversion is a is an insult to to Donald Trump and to Ronald Reagan, who was also a Democrat.

00:35:55.000 But his, you know, their conversion was over years of talking about conservative issues.

00:36:01.540 She found God guns in the GOP about a day and a half before she decided to run to governor. 0.97

00:36:08.060 I mean, it is just a fake.

00:36:09.600 She is an opportunist.

00:36:10.540 And with each passing day, more and more is revealed about her history and her character.

00:36:16.620 You know, it's it's one thing to vote for, you know, Barack Obama, which she has admitted to doing.

00:36:21.260 It's another thing to write checks to him.

00:36:23.520 And it's it's a whole new level to go out and knock doors for the most progressive president in modern history.

00:36:32.600 She is just not who she says she is.

00:36:35.840 And so to and then, you know, she she you know, she is she was a purveyor of fake news for 27 years. 0.99

00:36:42.600 And she freely admits that she was lying to us for much of that time.

00:36:46.420 And my response to that is to be the governor.

00:36:49.980 You you don't have 27 years to learn your next job.

00:36:53.240 It took you 27 years to figure out you were peddling fake news in your last job.

00:36:57.200 You know, I have spent the last 30 years in the private sector, building a career, building communities, creating jobs and giving back to my community and giving back to conservative causes.

00:37:09.840 I have a 30 year track record as an executive leading teams, accomplishing results, signing both sides of a paycheck.

00:37:18.380 And Arizonans are looking forward and they want a CEO, somebody who knows how to get things done.

00:37:24.460 And I have a record of doing that.

00:37:26.000 They what do you mean when you say that she did that she admit she was a purveyor of fake news for all those years and that she was lying to people?

00:37:33.000 What do you mean?

00:37:34.600 She said she's admitted as much that she was reading what was put in front of her and that it was fake news.

00:37:40.340 So she's admitted that.

00:37:42.220 And, you know, those are those are her words.

00:37:45.220 So I just you know, I am who I am.

00:37:47.280 My record is abundantly clear what I've done, who I've supported and and I'm ready to lead.

00:37:54.060 You got, you know, issues you have supported Democrats, though, in the past.

00:37:57.220 You donated to Democrats like Representative Ruben.

00:38:01.020 Is it Gallego and other Democrats and other local races?

00:38:05.320 Ruben Gallego.

00:38:06.140 I did.

00:38:06.820 I did donate to Ruben Gallego after he was elected in a 40 plus Democrat district here in Arizona.

00:38:13.200 And he also is the only member of our delegation on the House Armed Services Committee.

00:38:18.740 And everybody who knows me knows how much I love and support our military and the importance of the aerospace and defense industry in Arizona.

00:38:26.860 And he is the only voice representing that industry and our military in Washington, D.C.

00:38:32.600 So just to clarify, you donated to him because this is a district in which the Republican had absolutely no chance.

00:38:37.460 It was it was D plus 40.

00:38:38.960 So you wanted to back the Democrat who is best aligned with your own vision.

00:38:43.680 Who's best aligned with the importance of the military to Arizona.

00:38:48.300 You know, our principal military installations in Arizona have a tremendous economic benefit to the state.

00:38:53.540 Thirteen billion dollars in annual economic impact.

00:38:55.940 And again, I am I have been a big supporter of our military for decades.

00:39:01.460 And he's the only voice in our delegation who has a seat at the table on the House Armed Services Committee.

00:39:07.120 I got it. I got it. That makes sense.

00:39:08.440 So I would put it.

00:39:09.880 Yeah, go ahead.

00:39:11.280 I would put my record of donating to Republican candidates and conservative causes up against anybody running for office today.

00:39:18.640 So she was very animated on this show, as she has been on Twitter about she said you exploited older voters by sending out a solicitation for donations that suggested you were going to be pushing the Trump agenda.

00:39:37.220 I'm paraphrasing right now when, in fact, it was a solicitation for you and it made it sound more like they were going to be giving to something more directly aligned with Trump.

00:39:46.220 Here's here she is on Twitter. 0.99

00:39:47.320 I'll let her put it in her words.

00:39:48.800 Here it is.

00:39:49.480 These kind hearted retirees would click the link and little did they know they were signing up for a recurring donation, but not to build the wall or help President Trump.

00:39:59.840 It was a recurring donation to a woman that they don't even know.

00:40:03.600 Our team spoke to some of the victims of this ploy.

00:40:06.000 I'm going to investigate donations to Karen Taylor Robeson, a candidate for Arizona governor.

00:40:10.160 I have a record that you made a donation to her.

00:40:12.000 Do you recall making this donation?

00:40:13.480 Karen Taylor, I'm not familiar with this person that you're even telling me.

00:40:18.420 No, I don't remember anymore.

00:40:20.860 I did not give her a donation.

00:40:23.380 She's a person.

00:40:25.480 So it's obviously a part of her campaign to call you those names and go find voters who sound like they didn't know they donated to you.

00:40:32.180 Would you like to respond?

00:40:33.980 Absolutely.

00:40:34.460 You know, digital fundraising efforts that are done all over this country, you probably get them.

00:40:40.580 We all get them every single day.

00:40:42.480 And any time somebody wants their money back, they get it.

00:40:44.960 But I can tell you that my refund rate is far lower than the average.

00:40:50.280 In fact, you know, by implication, she's attacking Donald Trump because his refund rate, doing the same thing, is a multiple of my refund rate.

00:40:59.400 So she's attacking Donald Trump as well.

00:41:02.400 And it's quite interesting that she has, you know, she doesn't report refunds.

00:41:06.360 So that's a statistical impossibility.

00:41:08.720 And so, you know, from my perspective, it's much, much better to be completely transparent.

00:41:13.780 You know, if you want to take a pair of shoes back to Macy's, they refund your money if you don't like your shoes.

00:41:18.860 And so anybody who wants a refund, we'll give them a refund.

00:41:22.140 And I will stand by our practice.

00:41:25.100 And she needs to be transparent. 0.90

00:41:27.620 She also needs to include Donald Trump in her complaint about me.

00:41:33.280 She suggests that you're trying to buy the election.

00:41:35.500 You're married to a very rich man, as I understand it.

00:41:37.740 And, you know, that you've definitely thrown a lot more money at this race than she has. 0.98

00:41:42.000 She's in, I think, the low couple of millions in Europe, around 13 million.

00:41:46.560 And that you're thus going to be beholden to that donor class in a way she says Trump wasn't.

00:41:53.100 And in a way she says she won't be.

00:41:55.900 Well, a couple of things.

00:41:57.380 You know, she was living in the living rooms of Arizona for 27 years.

00:42:01.820 So her name ID walking into this race was extremely high.

00:42:05.240 Meanwhile, the last 30 years, I was in the private sector working to build communities.

00:42:09.740 And I wasn't on TV for 27 years.

00:42:12.200 But she's also attacking any successful woman. 1.00

00:42:15.200 I have had a very successful career.

00:42:17.720 So, you know, she doesn't know the source of my money.

00:42:20.280 But I have been putting my money, my family treasure, my time,

00:42:24.760 my career on the shelf to give back to Arizona.

00:42:28.660 Meanwhile, she has been using her campaign to support herself and her family.

00:42:33.400 All you have to do is look at her disclosures.

00:42:37.640 And she's paying family members. 0.96

00:42:39.440 She, you know, spends an awful lot of money at resorts and fine dining establishments. 1.00

00:42:45.700 And it's just it's so hypocritical. 0.86

00:42:48.040 But it's, you know, quite frankly, it's no surprise. 0.81

00:42:50.180 You, as I understand it, and obviously, since I didn't know how to pronounce Gallego, I don't

00:42:58.960 I don't pay enough attention to the legislators, legislators coming from Arizona unless they

00:43:04.120 really hit national prominence.

00:43:05.920 So, you know, forgive me.

00:43:07.460 But I don't explain to me why you, as somebody who seems to have donated to President Trump,

00:43:15.260 raised a bunch of money for President Trump, supported President Trump's agenda for many

00:43:19.740 years, did not get his endorsement.

00:43:21.980 Like, why did he go with her over you?

00:43:24.540 I think he was given bad information, but I and I can't explain it because, yes, we donated

00:43:31.520 and raised an awful lot of money.

00:43:33.600 Several members of his family were at our home for fundraisers.

00:43:36.380 And I will defend Donald Trump's record all day long.

00:43:39.260 And I do every single day.

00:43:41.200 He has an incredible record of accomplishment.

00:43:43.920 You know, we can rattle off everything from USMCA to getting our NATO partners to pay their

00:43:49.440 fair share to historically low Black and Hispanic unemployment.

00:43:54.540 To the rollback of federal regulations to those 234 federal judges.

00:43:59.740 I can go on and on.

00:44:01.120 My daughter worked for him at the White House.

00:44:03.320 She was there until January 20th, turned out the lights at the White House.

00:44:07.280 So we have a long history of supporting the president.

00:44:11.760 But what I'm looking for is the endorsement of the voters of Arizona.

00:44:15.260 This race is about Arizona.

00:44:17.320 It's about Arizona's future.

00:44:19.460 That's what I'm out there earning every single day.

00:44:21.440 But don't you think it has to do with January 6th?

00:44:23.500 I mean, frankly, you know, like she's she's not a believer that Biden won.

00:44:28.100 She calls him an illegitimate president.

00:44:29.660 She says this is a stolen election.

00:44:31.180 And I know and I pointed out to her, you've said there were problems.

00:44:34.020 It was by no means a perfect election.

00:44:36.320 And there were some unfairnesses in the process, but not stolen.

00:44:40.360 Don't you think that's that's what did it?

00:44:41.700 It may have.

00:44:44.440 I don't know.

00:44:44.880 Again, that's you know, you'll have to ask President Trump why why he did it.

00:44:49.260 You know, I wouldn't be running if Donald Trump was still in the White House.

00:44:53.560 I'm running because Joe Biden's in the White House and our freedoms are under attack.

00:44:58.300 Arizona's borders are overrun.

00:45:00.600 You know, I tell everywhere I go, we're being we're being invaded from the south and our freedoms are under attack from the east. 0.98

00:45:06.380 And Joe Biden, Joe, that the Biden-Harris administration is a disaster in this entire country.

00:45:12.540 And Arizona families are feeling it every day.

00:45:15.180 They go to the, you know, having to make a decision whether they're putting gas in a gas tank or food on the tables or asking whether they can even fill their gas tank up to go to work.

00:45:23.980 And I will bring to Arizona a vision for education, freedom, economic freedom.

00:45:31.040 There's 70 percent of our adult population in Arizona came from somewhere else.

00:45:34.900 We are still that shining city on the hill and the left is coming for Arizona.

00:45:40.660 And I'm going to do everything I can, everything I can to win in 2022.

00:45:45.260 And, you know, 10 days from now, you know, the Democrats are coming after me now because they know I'm the nominee that they're going to have trouble beating in November.

00:45:53.560 They want Carrie Lake to win because they know they can defeat her. 0.96

00:45:57.300 They think they can do better in a state that's not hardcore red with a Carrie Lake sort of Trump MAGA type candidate. 0.75

00:46:04.260 But when, you know, I had an interesting reversal with her when she was on the phone.

00:46:09.460 I mean, when she was on the show, because first she said either one of you would beat Hobbs, the Democrat.

00:46:15.000 She said, we're not going to lose to her in Arizona.

00:46:17.760 But then she changed it later and said, no, I'm actually the only one who can beat her, that you would lose to Hobbs.

00:46:25.720 So what do you think?

00:46:27.100 Do you believe that either one of you would beat Hobbs?

00:46:31.600 I believe I will beat Hobbs.

00:46:34.440 Arizona has a long history.

00:46:35.660 But do you think she will?

00:46:36.960 Do you think she could?

00:46:37.640 I don't.

00:46:38.140 Based on the numbers that I've seen, no, I do not.

00:46:41.420 Arizona has a long history of electing the person, not the party.

00:46:45.220 In fact, 20 years ago, in 2002, in a red wave year, we had a Republican candidate lose to Janet Napolitano.

00:46:53.220 That's right.

00:46:53.820 So it can happen.

00:46:54.680 Arizona now has two Democrat senators.

00:46:56.840 Never in my lifetime did I think I would see that.

00:47:00.220 Yeah.

00:47:00.520 But Carrie Lake has put herself in a position where she's not going to be able to appeal to the majority of Arizonans. 0.99

00:47:06.540 We now have more independents registered in Maricopa County than we have Republicans, which is a first.

00:47:13.460 Yeah, it's a real question about whether you can go hardcore MAGA in Arizona in today's day.

00:47:18.960 And that's one of the reasons why your race is getting national attention.

00:47:21.660 You know, the split between the two of you and between Trump and Pence.

00:47:24.880 She is polling ahead of you.

00:47:27.920 What do you make of that?

00:47:29.040 Because the latest polls show her the real clear politics average showed her I think it was 8.5 percent ahead of you.

00:47:35.160 So how do you like your chances in this primary race on August 2nd?

00:47:39.280 I feel really, really good about our chances.

00:47:41.820 There's a lot of polls out there.

00:47:43.660 The polls that I listen to are my own internal polls.

00:47:47.040 And the poll, of course, that matters is the poll on August 2nd.

00:47:51.460 And, of course, the voting is already underway.

00:47:53.600 So it's it's that's voting day.

00:47:55.440 But as we now know, the election day is weeks long and months long in some places.

00:48:01.060 One of the many issues that has been thrust into the national conversation.

00:48:05.060 Karen, thank you so much for coming on.

00:48:06.360 We appreciate it.

00:48:07.140 And we're going to be watching this race very, very closely. 0.57

00:48:09.200 We'd love to have you back on after it's over.

00:48:11.340 Thank you.

00:48:11.760 Thank you very much for having me.

00:48:13.420 All the best.

00:48:14.520 OK, up next, a deep dive with our panelists on Kelly's court.

00:48:18.820 The probe into Hunter Biden hits a, quote, critical stage.

00:48:22.580 They're basically saying he's going to get charged with something.

00:48:25.240 They're not going to do it within two months of the midterm elections.

00:48:28.340 So that means ASAP basically means August is the last chance.

00:48:33.720 And that's what we'll get into.

00:48:35.440 Is he actually going to be charged by the feds and with what?

00:48:39.360 And what about Amber Heard, who has now just filed an appeal?

00:48:42.680 We'll tell you her grounds and whether she's got a chance.

00:48:45.860 Don't go away.

00:48:46.400 It's time for Kelly's court.

00:48:52.340 On the docket today, Hunter Biden, Steve Bannon, Amber Heard, and a woman who is suing a man

00:48:57.320 for not showing up for a date.

00:48:59.220 I kid you not.

00:49:00.380 This is going to be fun.

00:49:01.460 Joining me now, criminal defense attorney, John Spilboer and Mark Eiglarsh, former prosecutor,

00:49:06.240 now criminal defense attorney, and he does civil work as well.

00:49:09.560 Great to see you both.

00:49:10.760 Welcome back.

00:49:11.460 I was just talking about, can you believe that, that we got this started in 2004?

00:49:16.220 Are we that old?

00:49:18.400 No, don't say it.

00:49:20.140 Yes.

00:49:21.140 Yes.

00:49:21.740 I was still married to Dan back then.

00:49:24.280 So it was Kendall's court.

00:49:26.580 And since then, I've moved on to another husband, had three children.

00:49:31.740 Wow.

00:49:32.720 Now we're getting old, but we're getting, we're getting wiser.

00:49:35.880 We're getting more brilliant.

00:49:37.440 Our legal analysis, you two are.

00:49:40.640 Yes.

00:49:41.460 And wearing more makeup, really, you know?

00:49:44.060 Yeah.

00:49:44.420 Why not?

00:49:45.120 Why not?

00:49:45.880 That's that.

00:49:46.440 That's what comes with age.

00:49:47.360 The need for it.

00:49:47.980 That ingenious.

00:49:48.920 OK, let's talk about Hunter Biden, who's not using the right facial products.

00:49:54.580 He's not making any good decisions. 0.99

00:49:56.020 As a matter of fact, he's really just into his crack, his hookers and his guns.

00:50:00.940 And ne'er the three shall meet under the law. 0.55

00:50:04.460 The law says, you know, I mean, I don't know about the hookers and the guns, but you're not 1.00

00:50:08.700 allowed to have the crack and the gun at the same time.

00:50:11.940 As it turns out, something he's apparently admitted to many times.

00:50:19.160 And what we read now, John, is that it's on the list of things he's being investigated

00:50:22.840 for as all the Hunter Biden stuff, all of it, all the weird stuff overseas, seems to have

00:50:28.800 boiled down to whether he broke gun laws or drug laws, right?

00:50:34.640 Have I have I accurately summarized where we think the federal investigation is?

00:50:38.640 Well, pretty much.

00:50:41.640 And I think it's summarized thusly because those are the easy tax.

00:50:46.860 I forgot about the tax law.

00:50:48.200 Sorry.

00:50:48.440 Go ahead.

00:50:48.780 Right.

00:50:49.240 Tax, right.

00:50:50.000 Tax evasion.

00:50:51.400 But those are the easy charges that can be made against Hunter Biden, because trust me,

00:50:58.600 when you prosecute Hunter Biden, you're not just prosecuting Hunter Biden.

00:51:03.700 Like Hunter Biden's case is going to have tentacles.

00:51:06.440 It's not like Nancy Pelosi's husband getting caught for DWI, where the worst thing that's

00:51:11.660 going to happen is, oh, sorry, old man, but we're going to take your license for 90 days.

00:51:15.140 This is way bigger than that.

00:51:17.600 So I don't know if the feds are going to try to get the easy stuff, the drugs, the prostitution,

00:51:23.180 the firearms, the stuff that's not going to affect America as much as just sort of a way

00:51:29.920 to get around it and finally prosecute this loser, or if it's going to really, 0.53

00:51:35.580 really blow up. 0.61

00:51:37.080 And I'm a little scared by that, but I think, you know, we're going to have to see because

00:51:40.720 they're just this is just the tip of the iceberg, what they got.

00:51:42.900 I mean, they wouldn't have this. 1.00

00:51:44.180 They wouldn't have any of this, Megan, if he wasn't stupid enough to drop his laptop 1.00

00:51:47.740 off at a third party place that a disinterested party's establishment. 1.00

00:51:52.820 So exactly.

00:51:53.300 That's where they're getting.

00:51:53.940 That's where they're getting all this evidence of his bad behavior.

00:51:58.000 And in a way, Mark, the feds are in a tough position on the gun and the drug stuff because

00:52:02.800 the evidence is pretty clearly there.

00:52:06.320 But they it's not really the kind of thing they would normally run around prosecuting.

00:52:11.440 Right.

00:52:11.960 I don't I don't think so.

00:52:13.200 Now it's a tough situation because they don't want to look like they're doing special favors

00:52:15.840 for him.

00:52:16.900 Right.

00:52:17.080 Listen, if I represent him, I'm celebrating right now if their investigation is now solely

00:52:24.320 focused on guns and crack, because number one, how serious, really?

00:52:31.160 And number two, who knows whether they're really going to bring those charges?

00:52:34.000 They're not in the business going after those types of cases.

00:52:36.720 Typically.

00:52:38.060 Third, it's not clear.

00:52:41.480 In other words, yeah, in his book, he brags about using crack every 15 minutes or whatever.

00:52:45.840 But do we really know that he answered untruthfully when he said that he wasn't?

00:52:53.180 Listen, I'd rather be on the prosecution side, but, you know, I'm a defense lawyer.

00:52:55.940 So I'm thinking like in his mind, maybe during the time period that he answered the question,

00:53:00.780 he was either in denial.

00:53:02.260 Explain the question.

00:53:03.160 They don't know what we're talking about.

00:53:04.280 What where he said, no, I don't have it in front of me, but OK, I'll tell him in 2018.

00:53:09.020 He responded no to a question on.

00:53:11.160 I think it was a gun application record that asked, are you an unlawful user of or addicted

00:53:17.920 to marijuana or any depressant, stimulant, narcotic drug or any other controlled substance?

00:53:22.340 And he said no.

00:53:24.000 Meanwhile, five years earlier, he'd been discharged from the Navy Reserve for testing positive

00:53:27.860 for cocaine.

00:53:28.980 Family members have spoken out about his history of drug use.

00:53:31.500 According to his memoir, Beautiful Things, he was smoking crack every 15 minutes during

00:53:34.700 the period in which he bought the gun.

00:53:36.820 So by his own hand, which wrote allegedly Beautiful Things, he admits he admits he was

00:53:41.800 smoking crack when he said no to that question.

00:53:44.940 Hold on.

00:53:45.760 Hold on.

00:53:46.380 No.

00:53:46.940 And now I'm going to now people are going to roll their eyes.

00:53:48.900 But hold on.

00:53:50.000 I'm a lawyer.

00:53:50.800 So are you, Megan.

00:53:51.460 Let's read that question again.

00:53:53.860 The didn't ask during a time period.

00:53:57.200 They asked.

00:53:58.100 They did.

00:53:58.340 As are you question?

00:54:00.520 Are you answering that question?

00:54:02.140 Read the first part and then we'll go.

00:54:03.600 Are you an unlawful user of doesn't have to just be an addict, user of or addicted to

00:54:10.720 marijuana?

00:54:12.220 One at a time.

00:54:13.860 Are you now they didn't say what period of time are you as you're signing this an unlawful

00:54:20.620 user of drugs?

00:54:21.660 Right.

00:54:22.340 And his answer would be no, because maybe that day or that week he had quit.

00:54:26.480 They can't prove otherwise.

00:54:28.260 Second.

00:54:28.780 Stop it.

00:54:29.800 Second.

00:54:30.240 No, I got you. 0.99

00:54:31.340 Now, the second part is, are you an addiction, an addict?

00:54:34.260 Number one, denial is part of, you know, the whole thing.

00:54:37.780 So does he really label himself as an addict?

00:54:40.300 Had he stopped in that brief moment, whether it be a day or two, does he want the stigma

00:54:44.760 of being labeled an addict?

00:54:46.140 Does he believe he can conquer the addiction by not calling himself an addict?

00:54:49.560 These are ambiguous terms.

00:54:50.940 Stop rolling your eyes.

00:54:52.260 I win.

00:54:53.040 Bad.

00:54:53.460 Guilty.

00:54:54.580 Guilty.

00:54:54.960 No, no, no, appeal, appeal to somebody.

00:55:01.920 I've always said that if I'm ever in trouble, I'm calling Mark, and that is why.

00:55:06.260 Because you can create a great argument out of nothing.

00:55:10.120 Look, he wasn't sober for the five minutes that he filled out that application.

00:55:14.240 Although I will say, I will give you this. 0.96

00:55:16.020 That is the world's dumbest question, because nobody is going to say, oh, you know what? 0.87

00:55:20.440 Yeah, I am an illegal user. 0.98

00:55:22.300 It's just going to rip up the application.

00:55:24.120 They're not going to they're not going to testify truthfully on that kind of application.

00:55:27.420 And it's up to the people who are vetting those applications to do a little digging

00:55:31.940 to make sure you're not crazy on drugs.

00:55:34.620 OK, but wait, I'm going to let you finish your point.

00:55:37.360 But let me just interject.

00:55:38.440 It's in large part to his own father that he even had to answer that question.

00:55:43.000 And that lying in response to that form four, four, seven, three question is a federal felony.

00:55:48.180 This is from a Charles C.W.

00:55:49.540 Cook article on National Review that's punishable by up to 10 years in federal prison.

00:55:52.900 So take it up with daddy.

00:55:54.180 Once again, your daddy issues are ruining your life.

00:55:57.280 Go ahead, John.

00:55:59.360 No, and that's a great point.

00:56:01.020 My point was made, and that's exactly right.

00:56:03.260 I don't know if the daddy issues are ruining his life or he's ruining his daddy's life

00:56:08.160 because what came first, the chicken or the egg?

00:56:11.620 Yeah, that's right.

00:56:12.160 I would ask all of you, as I would ask my jurors, do you think you can come up with a way to

00:56:17.780 word that question with more detail or in a better way?

00:56:22.380 And everybody would say, well, yeah, I would say, have you used in the last week?

00:56:27.020 Have you, you know, whatever you want to want to specify since they didn't. 0.97

00:56:31.580 That question sucks, especially for prosecution.

00:56:34.760 And I know prosecutors are thinking that. 0.99

00:56:37.020 All right.

00:56:37.480 Let's move on to the other piece, because it's also illegal under federal law to use

00:56:42.060 banned drugs while in possession of a firearm.

00:56:45.660 So you're supposed to answer the question on the application for the firearm, honestly.

00:56:49.840 But you're also, once you get the drugs or sorry, the gun, not supposed to use drugs while

00:56:55.500 in possession of it, which matters.

00:56:57.440 This is Charles C.W.

00:56:58.360 Cook and a good point.

00:56:59.260 A great deal, because a week or so after he purchased his firearm, Hunter Biden appeared

00:57:03.640 in a bunch of sordid photographs with one hand on the trigger of the gun and his other hand, 0.97

00:57:09.060 of course, cupping his genitals, something he loves to do. 0.83

00:57:12.780 While what appears to be crack cocaine can be seen on a plate alongside used and packeted 0.98

00:57:20.120 condoms, gross alongside drug paraphernalia and a spoon.

00:57:25.060 What do you mean not enough?

00:57:26.000 You got not enough.

00:57:27.000 Listen, I'm sorry.

00:57:30.580 I'm sorry.

00:57:31.040 I'm sorry.

00:57:31.380 You tested it, Megan.

00:57:33.020 What do you mean?

00:57:33.820 You said appears to be crack.

00:57:35.680 Do you think that ever in the criminal justice arena, they have ever prosecuted someone for

00:57:41.360 possession without a lab test?

00:57:43.820 We don't know what that is.

00:57:45.680 You don't know what it is.

00:57:47.300 I see that.

00:57:47.880 That was a little shaky.

00:57:50.520 It's a little shaky.

00:57:51.280 But, Johnny, you tell me, do you need a test to convince a jury that's crack?

00:57:58.380 You're not going to need a test to convince a jury that that's crack.

00:58:01.360 And here's the other thing.

00:58:03.960 Even, I mean, he's committing crimes left and right.

00:58:06.760 But let's look at the other, the bigger point.

00:58:08.680 This man should not have a license to possess a firearm.

00:58:12.340 And you don't need to prove what drug is on the coffee table when you snatch his license.

00:58:18.720 So even if they don't successfully prosecute him on that, they've got to yank the firearms

00:58:24.440 license if they haven't already.

00:58:26.660 This guy, he's just a walking timer.

00:58:28.340 He had, didn't I read that he had, his friend actually was so concerned over his drug use

00:58:33.240 and his possession of the firearm that she took the firearm and threw it in a public garbage

00:58:39.260 can across the street from a school.

00:58:41.140 But which is also. 1.00

00:58:42.120 Everyone in his orbit is stupid. 1.00

00:58:43.520 Yeah, everyone. 1.00

00:58:44.940 Exactly.

00:58:45.880 I need to make something very clear.

00:58:47.780 I don't disagree.

00:58:48.680 I don't disagree that during the time period, per his own admission with the drugs that he

00:58:53.400 was allegedly doing, which by the way, doesn't prove conclusively that he was doing drugs.

00:58:58.000 But with what he says in his own book, I think that's enough to prove, if true, that he shouldn't

00:59:02.500 have been possessing a gun.

00:59:03.620 I'm not making that argument.

00:59:04.500 I'm solely making a legal argument, which is what we're here for as lawyers in Kelly

00:59:09.100 court, that I don't believe that they can carry their burden on this case solely because

00:59:13.460 a picture in the background looks like something you guys think may be crack.

00:59:18.780 Sorry, doesn't do it in a court law.

00:59:20.280 I think they're going to get the little Hallie, the then girlfriend, who was the dum-dum who 1.00

00:59:26.440 thought a better place would be right across from a school.

00:59:28.600 Um, and she's, she could absolutely be a witness to say, yeah, he did it. 0.99

00:59:33.760 Uh, he, he loved to wield the gun and he loved to grab his genitals and he loved to do the 0.99

00:59:38.460 crack in between. 0.99

00:59:39.700 All right, let's move on to the next question though, about possible prostitution charges, 0.62

00:59:45.020 because that's another crime that doesn't often get, you know, pursued, get prosecuted,

00:59:50.060 though sometimes it does.

00:59:51.680 And if your name's not Hunter Biden, definitely sometimes does.

00:59:55.660 I don't know. 0.94

00:59:56.080 I don't know anyone to whom it's happened, but so I read, they do go after both prostitutes 0.97

01:00:00.880 and John's and Hunter Biden. 0.97

01:00:03.220 If there's anything he loves more than crack, it's prostitutes. 0.91

01:00:07.800 I mean, the stories are out of control, uh, documents, texts, videos showing he spent, 0.78

01:00:14.380 this is citing the daily mail, uh, $30,000 on quote escorts in just five months.

01:00:20.820 This is why he needed that seat on Burisma, the Ukrainian company. 0.96

01:00:23.680 He had so many hookers running around and they don't come cheap. 1.00

01:00:26.560 Mark, uh, the president's son wrote checks to a Ukrainian woman. 0.98

01:00:29.900 Oh, speaking of Ukraine, whose transactions were red flagged by banks or suspicious activity.

01:00:36.580 Okay.

01:00:37.000 This is like an anti-corruption thing that they normally look into.

01:00:39.820 They're like, why is he doing this? 0.99

01:00:41.180 Turns out he's hiring hookers. 1.00

01:00:43.320 And, um, a lot of them, he, he's got a check here. 0.96

01:00:47.520 They're, they, they're showing a picture of the daily mail for $3,400.

01:00:51.980 It says the money is for the blue water wellness reboot.

01:00:56.480 And that's the name of the rehab facility.

01:00:58.580 Joe Biden was loaning Hunter money to pay, you know, to pay to go to.

01:01:02.320 But in fact, we have, we believe it may, it may have been all one big disguise to cover 0.98

01:01:08.900 his payments to the hookers.

01:01:11.720 Uh, aren't you so happy your kids are okay? 0.99

01:01:15.820 Like if I had a dollar for every time you said genital and hooker so far, I'd be a wealthy 1.00

01:01:21.740 fellow. 1.00

01:01:23.480 You do get hire one of these hookers. 1.00

01:01:25.420 I mean, they're not coming cheap. 0.98

01:01:26.480 $3,400 is a lot.

01:01:27.600 So would they go after him for quote, transporting prostitutes across, across state lines, which

01:01:33.880 by the way, violates another set of laws.

01:01:35.720 You can't use the hooker and you can't transport the hooker across the state lines. 0.96

01:01:41.420 Should I go first and tell you how I don't think this is going to happen again to everyone's

01:01:45.020 dismay legally.

01:01:46.700 Let me, can I play Mark for a minute?

01:01:48.960 Let me just play Mark.

01:01:49.620 Let me tell you what Mark's going to say. 1.00

01:01:51.240 Mark's going to say that they're hookers. 1.00

01:01:53.540 Mark's going to say, what if they were his girlfriends? 0.96

01:01:56.080 Friends and he's just going up with tons of gifts.

01:01:58.960 Am I right or am I right?

01:02:00.540 You're in the ballpark.

01:02:01.740 I mean, unless you bring in cinnamon, amber, fallopia and toiletta to say, yeah, that's what

01:02:06.880 he did.

01:02:07.360 Then I don't think you have a case.

01:02:10.980 Fallopia is the greatest game ever.

01:02:13.640 That's a new one.

01:02:15.440 I bet you someone has used it.

01:02:18.220 Maybe we could.

01:02:19.260 I don't know if they're in Ukraine.

01:02:20.520 It's going to be tough, but this is alleged just across across state lines, not across

01:02:26.140 country lines.

01:02:27.660 I look, I think you're right.

01:02:29.560 If this is what all of the big web has boiled down to hunters in a good position, the tax

01:02:35.580 charges are a different matter.

01:02:37.220 Those looked pretty good against him, but he did pay over a million dollars in back taxes

01:02:41.640 once he found himself in the feds and the feds crosshairs, which lowers the likelihood

01:02:45.920 of prostitution or prostitution prosecution, but doesn't.

01:02:50.220 Yeah, but doesn't eliminate it.

01:02:52.180 So, all right.

01:02:52.960 Final predictions.

01:02:53.980 Will will Hunter Biden in the next 45 days be charged with a crime?

01:02:59.460 Mark?

01:03:01.060 No.

01:03:03.220 That's it.

01:03:03.800 All right, John.

01:03:05.000 I'm going to say, by the way, wait, hold on, not because he didn't do anything.

01:03:10.100 So you can minimize the hate mail, folks.

01:03:12.140 I'm just saying, I don't think based upon the analysis that I provided and more that

01:03:16.460 I can share with you, if you just go to speak to Mark dot com, I am telling you, I don't

01:03:20.500 think they could prove all these charges.

01:03:23.940 And they wouldn't bring that.

01:03:25.320 That's why you might get charged, Mark, because now then he can become a sympathetic figure 1.00

01:03:29.900 instead of the idiot that he is, because if they charge him with this crap and then 1.00

01:03:34.020 they can't prove it, then it's like, oh, my God, my son, my son, Hunter, look, he's an 1.00

01:03:37.240 innocent man.

01:03:38.160 And that's going to be more theater.

01:03:39.540 And that's going to be a bunch of BS.

01:03:41.380 And that's why he probably will get charged, but not with anything significant.

01:03:47.300 That's a good theory.

01:03:48.100 Either way, it looks good for him.

01:03:49.460 Either way, we're celebrating if hypothetically he was my client.

01:03:53.000 I think you're right.

01:03:53.680 I think you would be celebrating. 0.80

01:03:55.200 I don't I think this is kind of pathetic that all of these multiple violations of the 0.88

01:03:59.540 law will result in nothing for him. 0.69

01:04:02.420 But that can we flip that?

01:04:03.680 Pathetic that we have due process and you actually have to prove things not like a crack or it 0.93

01:04:09.120 might be sugar. 0.99

01:04:09.900 Who knows his name were Joe Schmoe or whatever Hunter Schmoe instead of Hunter Biden.

01:04:16.600 No, he'd be no, not not on this many violations and the tax violations, all that stuff.

01:04:21.040 No way he would be under.

01:04:22.920 He would be getting indicted.

01:04:24.300 OK, let's move on, because Steve Bannon is also in some really big trouble.

01:04:29.360 And the jury, if people haven't been paying attention, he's he's been on trial this week

01:04:33.740 for contempt of Congress.

01:04:36.080 The jury's deliberating right now.

01:04:38.180 We're kind of on verdict watch at this moment.

01:04:39.720 It could come back at any moment.

01:04:41.280 And the reason he's on trial is because he got subpoenaed by the January 6th committee to turn

01:04:49.320 over all documents and information and sit for depositions, I think, too.

01:04:53.080 And he basically said, pound sand, you can go take a long walk off a short pier and tried

01:05:00.160 to claim executive privilege.

01:05:02.920 But that was sort of a bogus claim from the start, John.

01:05:07.460 I mean, I can see just from any I'm trying to be fair to the guy, but like he wasn't

01:05:13.580 even working in the White House for most of the time covered by the subpoena.

01:05:19.540 Yeah.

01:05:21.120 My take on what really happened here now, first, let me let me jump ahead.

01:05:25.560 I think this is a this is another B.S.

01:05:27.760 prosecution.

01:05:28.660 I think it's just the the feds kind of sticking it to him because what he did here was when he

01:05:33.800 got subpoenaed, he said, I'm not playing your game.

01:05:36.740 I'm not participating in it to himself.

01:05:39.180 I'm not participating in these hearings.

01:05:41.120 You can go pound sand, got on the phone with his lawyers and said, you know, make me look

01:05:45.620 like I'm not saying go pound sand, but I'm telling them to go pound sand.

01:05:48.960 So what do the lawyers do?

01:05:50.000 Then the lawyers like, oh, subpoena, I don't know, let's try to change the date.

01:05:53.720 Let's change the scope.

01:05:54.840 Let's do something.

01:05:55.320 Let's talk about these subpoenas.

01:05:57.460 And while they're doing that, which is perfectly normal and happens all the time in civil and

01:06:01.980 administrative cases, by the way, not involving famous people or sometimes involving famous

01:06:06.020 people, while they're doing all that, the DOG is like, you know what?

01:06:09.860 Forget it, Bannon.

01:06:10.680 We're going to pants you. 1.00

01:06:11.800 You're pantsed.

01:06:12.540 We're going to take your lunch money.

01:06:13.840 We're going to prosecute you for two misdemeanor charges, which the most you can do on these

01:06:18.960 charges is 60 days in jail, which is nothing in real time.

01:06:24.320 So that's what they did to him.

01:06:26.860 And so now Steve Bannon's like, well, wait a minute.

01:06:29.180 I didn't exactly say I wasn't going to supply anything.

01:06:31.400 I just said I needed to the scope and the dates and the this.

01:06:35.220 So even if he loses this trial, which he probably will, it's again, it's a whole lot of nothing.

01:06:44.700 He didn't want to participate in this in this theater, which is what these hearings seem to

01:06:51.800 be to me.

01:06:52.620 The just to just to tell the the listeners, it's a federal trial.

01:06:59.220 He it's been seven decades since someone went to jail for this offense, criminal contempt of

01:07:04.820 Congress.

01:07:06.200 So, you know, once again, we have, you know, somebody connected to a very famous politician

01:07:11.300 who may or may not be prosecuted in Bannon's case, yes, in Hunter's case, we'll see for

01:07:16.540 crimes that are definitely on the books, but aren't aren't always pursued.

01:07:22.200 But having said that, Mark, he does appear to have like stuck his finger right in the

01:07:25.680 eye of the congressional committee and said, F you, I'm not doing it.

01:07:29.820 Yeah, that appears he did.

01:07:31.440 And let me say two things.

01:07:32.960 One, Jonah is so hardcore.

01:07:35.600 60 days in jail is no big deal.

01:07:37.540 Really?

01:07:37.880 That's that's a lot of time.

01:07:40.000 I wouldn't want to do that.

01:07:41.060 And number two, I will say that the stronger argument is not necessarily executive privilege,

01:07:45.780 but it's to somehow get his lawyers to say the date that they asked him to come forward.

01:07:53.880 Listen, that's a suggestion in our business.

01:07:56.220 And I do deal with subpoenas all day long from federal prosecutors.

01:08:00.180 It's not always a hard set date.

01:08:03.480 You kind of work with things you negotiate.

01:08:06.340 You say, well, maybe we'll do this.

01:08:08.440 And he's going to say, you know, that's my lawyers doing.

01:08:11.940 We're still working on it.

01:08:13.160 The committee has said time is of the essence.

01:08:20.780 You know, it was a real date and time is of the essence.

01:08:22.260 Like we don't have a lot of time.

01:08:23.240 And of course, the reason for that, and they've stated this publicly elsewhere in New York Times

01:08:26.560 and also they realize they're probably going to lose control of Congress in the midterm

01:08:30.620 elections.

01:08:31.000 And they really want to have this wrapped up there.

01:08:34.300 They love their little investigation.

01:08:35.840 They want to get all their witnesses.

01:08:36.720 And they realize that a Republican controlled house probably doesn't give two dams about

01:08:40.680 Steve Bannon, what he has to say.

01:08:42.220 So, like, I don't know if that's a real time is of the essence argument.

01:08:46.260 I mean, I suppose if the judge is, you know, a Democrat, maybe.

01:08:49.600 But I don't think the judge is a Democrat.

01:08:50.960 Isn't it a Trump appointee?

01:08:52.740 I mean, you're in a Democrat area in D.C., but I think the judge might be a Trump appointee.

01:08:57.140 Um, so I don't know how this, yeah, how does this, how does this shake out with the jury?

01:09:04.360 Like, what do you, what do you predict is going to happen, Anne?

01:09:08.920 Well, you know, this is interesting.

01:09:10.860 I'm wondering why he actually didn't maybe waive jury for a case like this, because, you

01:09:17.080 know, maybe a Trump appointed judge would be a little bit more sympathetic and kind of

01:09:21.080 get rid of it.

01:09:21.680 But he's probably, he's probably dead to rights, legally speaking, because there are

01:09:29.440 laws in the books that say, you know, would you have to comply with subpoenas, et cetera.

01:09:33.260 And the jury might not understand.

01:09:34.520 Although, wait a minute, actually, let me take that back.

01:09:36.500 The jury is probably going to be very savvy because it's a jury, a D.C. jury.

01:09:41.400 A lot of them work in the area.

01:09:43.180 They know how politics work.

01:09:44.740 So I don't know, maybe for that reason, they'll either hang or they'll find a way to find him

01:09:50.940 not guilty.

01:09:52.660 I wonder, because in its federal court, which is always like, you know, that's better.

01:09:58.160 I think it's just better in general to be in federal court, although the feds usually

01:10:02.980 win.

01:10:03.580 They usually win when you're in federal court.

01:10:05.640 But I think that, you know, you still got coming from the same jury pool in federal court.

01:10:09.580 And these are going to be D.C.

01:10:10.860 area people, which tend to be very, very blue, very, very blue. 0.80

01:10:13.660 And in the very, very blue circle, Steve Bannon is the devil. 0.98

01:10:17.900 He's the devil. 0.99

01:10:19.060 It might be worse than Trump to these people. 0.97

01:10:22.000 One of the jurors admitted that they watched at least the opening primetime January 6th

01:10:27.900 hearing.

01:10:28.980 Only Democrats watch that.

01:10:30.440 I mean, only partisans watch that and news people like me.

01:10:33.820 Although I didn't.

01:10:34.380 I made my team do it.

01:10:35.040 I didn't know.

01:10:35.500 I don't want to watch any of that.

01:10:36.740 But anyway, my point is, that's not good for him.

01:10:40.020 So I think the odds are very much against Steve Bannon.

01:10:42.560 And I don't know.

01:10:44.420 There's no plea deal to be cut.

01:10:45.940 I mean, he went into the trial, Mark, saying, never mind, I'll give you what you want.

01:10:49.560 I'll sit for a deposition.

01:10:50.680 And by that point, they were like, nope.

01:10:53.460 That does help.

01:10:54.880 You know, if I'm a juror, well, he was going to do it.

01:10:57.840 And maybe he was counting on the delay to help, you know, iron things out.

01:11:02.820 But I also think that if the prosecutors keep this simple, we sent him a subpoena, he was

01:11:08.300 supposed to show up.

01:11:09.340 He thumbed his nose at it.

01:11:10.660 Now he's arguing it's gray.

01:11:12.440 It was black and white.

01:11:13.360 He didn't do it.

01:11:14.180 Find him guilty.

01:11:15.000 I disagree with Jonna.

01:11:15.980 I would never waive jury.

01:11:17.680 I would want, as a defense lawyer, to have 12 people and just find one who just says,

01:11:24.380 you know what?

01:11:24.880 I'm not going to go along with the rest.

01:11:26.340 I don't think you should be found guilty.

01:11:28.040 And at least you get a hung jury.

01:11:29.760 I wouldn't trust, just because this is a Trump appointee, let's say, that the judge would

01:11:34.120 then say, so anything under the whole Trump arena, you know, I'll go in that direction.

01:11:40.260 This judge may say, you know, what you did was thumb your nose at a subpoena.

01:11:44.340 And we value subpoenas.

01:11:45.880 And you have to abide by them.

01:11:48.180 I do think the going for a jury trial suggests he knows he has no defense.

01:11:52.740 Like if he thought he had a very solid case, a very solid defense, I think he'd be happy

01:11:58.100 to put it in the hands of the judge.

01:11:59.480 But he doesn't.

01:12:00.760 He really has no defense.

01:12:02.820 He didn't put one on.

01:12:04.320 He didn't put one on.

01:12:04.800 No, he didn't put on a defense.

01:12:06.360 I mean, it's really like maybe my lawyers misled me. 1.00

01:12:10.040 This is a bullshit crime. 1.00

01:12:11.620 Who the hell knows with Steve Bannon? 1.00

01:12:12.880 Maybe he wants a conviction. 0.92

01:12:13.820 Maybe he wants to go like a martyr.

01:12:15.400 Can I throw out a theory?

01:12:16.060 Can I throw out a theory with that?

01:12:18.100 His podcast apparently is rocketing up the charts.

01:12:21.120 He's like in the top 10.

01:12:22.620 He only then, you know, becomes a stronger and more marketable and a bit of a martyr.

01:12:28.480 If he's found guilty, I, you know, I don't follow him, but I would imagine that this is

01:12:32.500 all helping him.

01:12:33.240 That's true.

01:12:34.320 His podcast was like at 111 and now it's in the top 10.

01:12:37.920 And if you're telling me it's really potentially only 60 days or two, two months, I don't know.

01:12:42.140 I heard it could be potentially longer than that.

01:12:44.080 But if that's all it is, I don't know.

01:12:46.740 That's not that hard to do.

01:12:47.760 And I doubt you get the full time anyway.

01:12:49.200 Maybe he won't get any time.

01:12:50.240 Maybe he'll get some sort of a slap on the wrist.

01:12:52.020 Right.

01:12:52.260 OK, let's move on to January 6th, because the whole reason Steve Bannon's testimony was

01:12:58.040 relevant was because they're going after the big kahuna and that's Donald Trump.

01:13:03.340 And certainly they've dinged up Trump, you know, his character in these hearings.

01:13:08.780 They've dinged him up politically, which is really their goal.

01:13:12.700 But the big, big question is whether they're going that would they have they laid the foundation

01:13:16.180 for legal charges against Donald Trump insurrection, conspiracy to seditious insurrection.

01:13:21.320 Like, have they done that?

01:13:23.020 Because there's a large faction of Democrats that want to see that, want to see Donald

01:13:26.760 Trump in handcuffs and, of course, exit the political scene.

01:13:31.200 But that's the consolation prize.

01:13:32.860 They want to see him in handcuffs.

01:13:34.640 I don't know.

01:13:35.460 I mean, I've watched enough of it and read enough about it to say they don't have anywhere

01:13:39.420 close to what they need for that.

01:13:41.560 But what do you guys think, Jonna?

01:13:44.300 No, I'm with you.

01:13:45.400 I don't think they have anything close.

01:13:46.960 And, you know, I don't maybe I'm in the minority here, but I really think that the

01:13:50.880 January 6th hearings are nothing but political theater, kind of like a Hail Mary.

01:13:55.440 They know they're coming up on the midterms.

01:13:57.040 They know that I don't know if I can be really critical of Joe Biden.

01:14:02.020 Like, seriously, you guys lights are on, but nobody's home.

01:14:04.900 I mean, this is it's a it's a scary time.

01:14:08.020 And the committee who is conducting this these hearings are all completely anti Trump.

01:14:14.260 I mean, there's like two rhinos out of nine people on the committee.

01:14:18.420 And one of them hates Donald Trump.

01:14:20.300 Liz Cheney can't stand the guy. 1.00

01:14:21.760 So it's like, what are you really trying to accomplish here?

01:14:24.640 Just more egg on his face because they're not going to all they can do.

01:14:28.240 They can't find him guilty of anything.

01:14:29.540 They can just recommend that the DOJ institute criminal charges against him.

01:14:35.000 And and and then you'd have that.

01:14:36.800 So I don't think I don't really think this is going to go anywhere.

01:14:39.340 And I don't know if they're going to finish up before the midterms, to be honest, but we'll

01:14:44.540 Mark Adam Schiff at the beginning of this said he thought there was now credible evidence

01:14:48.880 to support a variety of criminal charges.

01:14:51.620 Jamie Raskin, Democrat of Maryland, said the committee would show that Trump organized

01:14:55.200 a coup on January 6th.

01:14:57.920 John Dean, former Nixon counsel, said an indictment would be forthcoming.

01:15:01.180 Indeed, I don't see how the line prosecutors at DOJ cannot take a lot of this evidence and

01:15:06.440 use it.

01:15:06.820 Trump's in trouble.

01:15:07.480 He's in real trouble.

01:15:08.320 Lawrence tribe said the only question is what's going to be charged first.

01:15:12.120 That's it, because there's tons of felonies shown.

01:15:14.160 These are all Democrats, of course.

01:15:16.520 The tone has shifted a little as we go into as we went into final hearing last night or

01:15:21.400 maybe final hearing, final hearing for now, where it's more like he's terrible.

01:15:26.400 You know, to be held accountable.

01:15:27.660 I don't know.

01:15:27.880 It's like a little softening from these Democrats.

01:15:29.680 I think they might know they didn't get there.

01:15:31.520 But what do you what do you think?

01:15:32.800 Criminal charge basis?

01:15:34.800 There's a big difference between morally and legally.

01:15:38.460 So morally, hypothetically, if they proved and again, I don't know what they proved.

01:15:43.220 There's no vigorous cross-examination.

01:15:45.620 There's nobody representing the other side. 0.98

01:15:47.480 So I just have to take everybody's word for it.

01:15:49.540 So I don't know what the facts are.

01:15:51.080 But let's just say hypothetically, there's facts that show that he knew that there was

01:15:56.240 a, you know, potential riot happening.

01:15:58.900 And for a period of time, he chose not to do anything about that.

01:16:03.000 One would say, yeah, morally, the leader of our free world should probably put a stop to

01:16:07.040 it and have said something.

01:16:08.460 Question is, is there some type of criminal charge that you could levy?

01:16:12.800 I don't see it for that.

01:16:14.560 So the next question is, and a lot of people ask me, what about inciting a riot?

01:16:18.560 Look what he did.

01:16:19.300 And I'm a huge free speech advocate.

01:16:21.840 There's a difference between, let's say you're on a crowded street, you yell, those cops are

01:16:26.160 horrible.

01:16:27.120 They did something horrible.

01:16:29.140 And you just say that.

01:16:30.420 And as a result, people then attack the cops.

01:16:32.820 That's legal and constitutionally protected.

01:16:35.300 That's different than saying, let's attack the cops.

01:16:38.280 You guys attack the cops.

01:16:40.600 So similarly, if Donald Trump is saying things like the election is fraudulent and they stole

01:16:46.820 it and all of that then causes people to react, that's very different than him saying, let's

01:16:52.920 go to the Capitol and let's commit crimes.

01:16:55.540 Let's do, you know, damage. 0.84

01:16:57.300 Let's revolt. 0.86

01:16:58.860 There's a defined distinction between what's First Amendment and protected speech and what's

01:17:03.620 criminal activity.

01:17:04.380 And I think they fall short in terms of proof so far.

01:17:07.400 You're 100 percent correct.

01:17:08.680 I could not agree with what you just said more.

01:17:10.580 And we're just kind of pretending that his rhetoric about the election is the same thing

01:17:15.360 as incitement, I-N-C-I-T-E meant, under the law.

01:17:21.220 Their case is political.

01:17:23.560 You know, their case is political.

01:17:24.700 And the voters will decide whether they've made that or not.

01:17:27.980 But by the way, his support has gone up.

01:17:30.200 Trump's numbers have gone up.

01:17:31.660 His lowest poll numbers ever, which I do believe were post-January 6th, are still not

01:17:36.820 as low as Joe Biden's are right now.

01:17:38.500 How about that?

01:17:39.480 But what they're saying is he knew he hadn't lost.

01:17:43.540 And he lied when he said over and over again that he did that that Joe Biden had lost.

01:17:50.040 Like he let me restate that.

01:17:51.820 He knew that Biden won and he was lying to the American public when he said that Biden

01:17:58.520 actually lost.

01:17:59.460 And then he falsely incited a bunch of insurrectionists to go and take over the Congress in an attempted

01:18:07.620 coup.

01:18:08.540 First of all, Trump absolutely believes to this moment.

01:18:12.500 And I 100 percent believe from January 6th forward that he won.

01:18:17.000 Does anyone really think Trump doesn't actually believe he won?

01:18:21.040 Like, how are these Democrats like the of course he believes that that's why he gets

01:18:25.260 so mad at people.

01:18:26.260 No, no, wait, wait.

01:18:27.100 Hold on.

01:18:28.060 Oh, yeah.

01:18:28.680 He won.

01:18:30.340 Wait, wait.

01:18:31.000 What?

01:18:31.320 You think he won in his mind?

01:18:34.380 He genuinely to his core believes that he won this election.

01:18:39.020 You really believe that?

01:18:40.300 I would bet every dime I have on it.

01:18:42.520 Every single dime.

01:18:43.220 Oh, my goodness.

01:18:44.040 Yes.

01:18:44.480 He believes it.

01:18:46.360 No, he's selling it, baby.

01:18:48.300 He knows.

01:18:49.340 No.

01:18:49.620 He can't expect that he came in second place.

01:18:52.440 So he just comes up with this theory and many people jump on that bandwagon.

01:18:56.060 Really?

01:18:56.580 Well, no.

01:18:57.340 But I mean, whatever's in him that can't allow him to lose.

01:19:01.320 Is making him reject any evidence that suggests he lost.

01:19:06.960 So this whole argument by the Democrats, like knowingly lied was out there. 0.99

01:19:11.320 They keep trying to prove like Bill Barr told him this was bullshit. 0.93

01:19:14.860 This person went in and said, we don't have any fraud that would change the results. 0.97

01:19:18.820 That's their case.

01:19:19.980 It's like, well, that only shows us that Trump heard that.

01:19:22.900 That doesn't show us that Trump believed it.

01:19:28.420 Bingo.

01:19:29.660 He's just shaking his head.

01:19:31.320 I'm still listening to you and who I respect very much.

01:19:34.500 I can't believe that Trump has actually convinced you that he believes that any more than I think

01:19:41.280 that he believes that abortion should be unlawful.

01:19:44.040 I mean, I think it's all about politics.

01:19:46.420 And I don't think that.

01:19:47.120 I agree with you on point two.

01:19:48.080 I agree with you on point two.

01:19:49.000 Trump is not at his heart pro-life.

01:19:51.040 But nobody on that side gives a damn because he did what they wanted him to do.

01:19:54.500 Say what you want about Trump.

01:19:56.820 He's at least smart enough to know that he fell short and won a second place medal in

01:20:02.740 that election.

01:20:03.640 I do not believe it.

01:20:04.460 But he has enough damage done from I don't know what.

01:20:07.660 I don't want to psychoanalyze the guy. 0.92

01:20:08.980 Whatever happened in his childhood has made him incapable of accepting the label loser. 0.98

01:20:16.860 He's incapable.

01:20:18.260 He's not like the rest of us where it's like, I don't like it.

01:20:20.860 But every once in a while it happens and I'll just get back up and fight back.

01:20:24.000 He's like the hard pass.

01:20:25.920 It didn't happen.

01:20:27.060 But wait, I want to get to the reason I'm getting into all this is because their big

01:20:31.300 evidence on Thursday night was listen to Trump in the outtakes from the speech he ultimately

01:20:38.800 finally gave condemning the rioters and all that.

01:20:41.700 Like he finally did get around on January 7th to saying the things that they wanted him

01:20:47.140 to say.

01:20:47.660 But there were several things that were taken out of those remarks.

01:20:51.120 And we have a mashup of what they played last night on the outtakes.

01:20:55.340 Here it is.

01:20:57.360 I would like to begin by addressing the heinous attack yesterday.

01:21:02.200 And to those who broke the law, you will pay.

01:21:06.580 You do not represent our movement.

01:21:08.840 You do not represent our country.

01:21:11.000 And if you broke the law, you can't say that.

01:21:15.240 I'm not going to.

01:21:15.780 I already said you will pay.

01:21:17.680 The demonstrators who infiltrated the Capitol have defied the seat of dust.

01:21:23.180 It's defiled, right?

01:21:24.520 See, I can't see it very well.

01:21:26.380 OK, I'll do this.

01:21:27.500 I'm going to do this.

01:21:28.120 Let's go.

01:21:28.960 But this election is now over.

01:21:31.380 Congress has certified the results.

01:21:33.540 I don't want to say the election's over.

01:21:34.860 I just want to say Congress has certified the results.

01:21:39.160 I would like to begin by addressing the heinous attack yesterday.

01:21:43.580 Yesterday is a hard word for me.

01:21:46.580 Just take that.

01:21:47.680 The heinous attack on our...

01:21:49.080 Ah, good.

01:21:49.600 Take the word yesterday, because it doesn't work with the heinous attack on our country.

01:21:56.440 Say, on our country.

01:21:57.960 Want to say that?

01:21:58.780 No, no, no.

01:21:59.460 My only goal was to ensure the integrity of the vote.

01:22:03.160 My only goal was to ensure the integrity of the vote.

01:22:10.020 OK. 0.99

01:22:12.080 You're like sausage. 0.80

01:22:13.320 Don't go see what's made.

01:22:14.640 I am not moved.

01:22:15.980 The only thing in there that was interesting was where he said, I don't want to say this

01:22:19.100 election is now over.

01:22:20.960 I'm not going to say that.

01:22:22.220 Well, he's been saying that ever since.

01:22:24.740 I mean, he's kind of been suggesting he still thinks it's up in the air.

01:22:28.420 He doesn't think Biden's legitimate.

01:22:32.560 I'm being called.

01:22:33.720 I'm being called over here, because I don't know if Biden's legitimate either.

01:22:38.020 But that's just...

01:22:39.540 I mean, when I look at...

01:22:41.060 Like, I honestly...

01:22:43.300 Do you really think that Biden got more votes than Obama?

01:22:48.280 Like, I just...

01:22:49.060 I'm not buying it either, but we're talking about the January 6th hearing, so...

01:22:53.720 No, I hear you.

01:22:54.480 It is hard to believe.

01:22:56.380 I will concede that point.

01:22:59.520 But I, you know, as a journalist, I need proof.

01:23:02.180 As a lawyer, I need proof.

01:23:03.900 And I know people say, well, there wasn't enough time.

01:23:06.100 Well, there's been lots of time since then, and none of it has actually proven that anything

01:23:10.620 would have changed the actual outcome.

01:23:12.600 Even Arizona.

01:23:13.340 We talk about Arizona all the time.

01:23:14.540 Arizona, Arizona.

01:23:15.540 Even if Trump had won Arizona, he would have lost the election.

01:23:18.820 So that's not to say there wasn't any funny business.

01:23:20.620 Not to say that they didn't change the law to Biden's benefit in Pennsylvania and so on.

01:23:24.540 The media put their thumb on the scale.

01:23:26.540 All that stuff, yes.

01:23:27.580 But proof, different story.

01:23:30.280 Anyway, I don't think they've got Trump on January 6th.

01:23:32.760 I think they need to move on.

01:23:34.940 For the love of God, shut up and move on. 1.00

01:23:38.640 And if they get thrown out in November and are forced to move off of this stupid, never-ending 1.00

01:23:44.920 primetime show that people aren't into, so be it. 0.99

01:23:49.440 Okay, Mark and John, stand by, because we have somebody else who people think is delusional,

01:23:53.400 and that's Amber Heard.

01:23:54.320 And she's back with a new appeal, trying to get the entire verdict against her thrown out.

01:24:00.420 Stand by for that.

01:24:05.300 Okay, so Amber Heard cannot let it go.

01:24:09.280 She has filed an appeal after losing her motion last week for a new trial.

01:24:15.880 She first tried to get the trial judge to set aside the verdict, and she had, like, a new

01:24:20.320 interesting curveball.

01:24:21.740 I mean, she's asserting all the same stuff as before.

01:24:23.800 You know, like, it's unfair, but you shouldn't.

01:24:25.480 But she said in the motion, juror number 15 is a problem.

01:24:31.820 Juror number 15 was a 77-year-old man who was not the one they wanted.

01:24:38.120 No, reverse that.

01:24:39.980 Juror number 15 was a 52-year-old man, right?

01:24:44.000 Trying to get it, yeah.

01:24:45.200 That's the one who showed up, yes.

01:24:46.740 It was the younger guy.

01:24:47.880 But they had subpoenaed, you know, your jury summons, the 77-year-old dad.

01:24:52.100 And the two guys have the same name, their father and son.

01:24:55.120 They live in the same house.

01:24:56.600 And so the younger guy showed up, and the older guy should have.

01:25:00.100 And he wound up getting picked, and he served.

01:25:02.920 And on this basis, Mark, she says that they should throw out the verdict?

01:25:06.440 How do you even get from A to B?

01:25:08.400 Yeah, that seems bizarre.

01:25:10.140 I don't know that state's specific law, if there's something in there that I don't know about.

01:25:14.460 But ultimately, I don't think so.

01:25:16.620 Because whoever showed up, whether it be a potato or the guy's son, they then vetted him and had full opportunity.

01:25:23.140 Both sides did, including the judge, to ask questions to determine whether they can render a fair and impartial jury, impartial decision.

01:25:32.240 And they did.

01:25:33.200 And thus, he was admitted on the jury.

01:25:35.100 I don't think this is going to do anything.

01:25:37.200 Maybe it was Toiletta. 0.96

01:25:38.400 Maybe that's who first got that.

01:25:39.620 Oh! 0.60

01:25:40.380 No, it's a lot of people.

01:25:42.740 Both of them.

01:25:43.720 It was 15 and 14, respectively.

01:25:45.820 If you're just tuning in, Megan's just quoting random supernames.

01:25:48.680 Welcome to Kelly's Court.

01:25:51.920 They say, Amber Heard's lawyers say, Virginia law is very, extremely is the word, strict about juror identities.

01:26:00.040 And they say this case of mistaken identity is grounds for a mistrial.

01:26:03.580 They are so rich.

01:26:04.900 You know, if I could talk to Amber Heard, I would shake her by the shoulders and say, please quit while you are behind. 1.00

01:26:11.300 Because that's where she is.

01:26:12.980 Now, on the juror issue, the person who should be the most upset right now is the father who actually got summoned but didn't serve.

01:26:21.340 Because he might get summoned again.

01:26:23.480 And nobody likes jury duty.

01:26:25.360 So he should be like, give me my pass.

01:26:27.540 But I agree with Mark.

01:26:29.220 Jurors, it's not a game show.

01:26:30.460 You don't walk into a courthouse, sit down, and all of a sudden you're a juror.

01:26:33.180 There's voir dire, there's questions by the judge, there's written questions.

01:26:36.680 And the summons go out just randomly.

01:26:39.920 Like, you know, they go to whatever, the voter election board, and out they go.

01:26:45.320 And so it's not like they're handpicking the jurors who are going to be possibly seated on a jury, number one.

01:26:51.580 So it really doesn't matter who shows up.

01:26:53.920 And number two, what's Amber's endgame here?

01:26:56.780 I think she's trying to say face, yes.

01:26:58.740 But ultimately, she just doesn't want to have this $10 million judgment hanging over her head.

01:27:04.720 And there are better ways to get out from under that than doing what she's doing and incurring more attorney's fees when she can't afford to pay the attorney's fees to date. 1.00

01:27:13.800 She needs to have a little heart-to-heart with her ex-husband and say, what's it going to take for you not to come after me for this judgment?

01:27:19.660 Because if you're going to come after me, I might go bankrupt or, you know, whatever other option she has to run from this judgment for the rest of her life. 0.67

01:27:27.020 So that's a better course of action for her.

01:27:29.580 Yeah.

01:27:29.780 If that's what she wants to do.

01:27:31.120 When you're in a hole, stop digging.

01:27:32.700 But she's got to, you know, she's trying.

01:27:34.640 Like, she has a terrible verdict against her right now, which her lawyer says she cannot afford to pay.

01:27:38.740 So it's like and the lawyer is supposed to be getting paid by an insurer because when you get sued like this in a civil court, generally you have insurance that will defend you.

01:27:49.840 And if you settle or get a verdict against you, the insurance company will pay, which is why Don Lemon can say publicly, in my opinion, that he didn't pay anything to his accuser is I bet you dollars to donuts.

01:28:02.780 It was the insurance company.

01:28:03.600 OK, that's another case.

01:28:04.960 But anyway, back on this case, her insurance company's telling her to take a walk, too.

01:28:10.680 So the insurance company doesn't want to pay anything.

01:28:13.520 So she really is in a pickle. 0.97

01:28:15.320 We'll get to the insurance company in a second, maybe.

01:28:17.360 But, Mark, she's going to go in in there on appeal and she's going to say, among other things, I believe, based on what we heard from her lawyer, unfair.

01:28:25.420 Social media was out of control.

01:28:27.320 This jury was influenced.

01:28:28.640 I believe they listened to the Twitter mob and didn't listen to the evidence.

01:28:33.820 And as a result, she didn't get a fair trial.

01:28:35.860 So far, the appeal is only two pages.

01:28:37.600 And it says the court made errors that prevented a just and fair verdict consistent with the First Amendment.

01:28:43.160 We are therefore appealing.

01:28:44.700 Yeah.

01:28:45.320 Denied, denied, denied, denied here.

01:28:47.540 Denied meaning they're not going to do anything that can disturb the verdict on those grounds.

01:28:51.340 I'm going to make the strongest argument.

01:28:52.980 It doesn't mean it will prevail.

01:28:54.060 But her strongest argument, follow me here, is that the jury did find in her favor on the countersuit for $2 million, the substance of which would suggest that there was some credibility to the fact that she was a victim.

01:29:10.240 Because when the attorney claimed that she manufactured the whole thing, apparently they found in her favor and said that was not right.

01:29:18.800 So if there is some shred of evidence or belief that she believed that she was a victim, then she writes that statement from the position of someone who believes that they're an abused person, and thus they have the First Amendment constitutional protection afforded to all those who write things.

01:29:40.240 Now, obviously, the argument on the other side, which I'm going to get in the hate mail, is, boy, did I get it during the trial when I raised that argument, just as a lawyer, is, you know, no, they found that you can't make it up, and it was all not accurate, and she just lied.

01:29:53.600 But then what about that verdict that she got in her favor?

01:29:57.020 What does that say?

01:29:58.520 Well, I know what it says. 1.00

01:29:59.980 It says, we think you're a hot mess liar. 0.99

01:30:03.940 You made up this whole thing against Johnny Depp. 0.99

01:30:06.660 They said that in their verdict?

01:30:08.000 You saw that?

01:30:08.580 Hot mess?

01:30:08.700 Yes, I read that.

01:30:09.700 You got to read between the lines.

01:30:10.900 You learn later when you've been practicing longer.

01:30:14.980 It's a joke because Mark can run circles around me legally.

01:30:19.100 But I think it was saying that representative Johnny Depp, who went out there, the agent who went out there and said, you created a fake scene, you know, like you messed up your apartment to try to make it look extra bad when the cops got there. 0.99

01:30:35.280 That was bullshit. 0.97

01:30:36.280 Like that, there's no evidence you did that. 0.99

01:30:38.440 You may have made up all this other stuff, but we don't believe you created a fake crime scene.

01:30:42.420 They didn't prove that.

01:30:43.380 So we're going to say that that was defamation by Johnny Depp's representative, and therefore he gets pinned with a two million.

01:30:48.720 I think they were just looking for a compromise just to say, like, I'll give her something.

01:30:52.600 We look fair.

01:30:53.400 Maybe.

01:30:56.400 I don't know.

01:30:57.880 That explains that explains the split to me that that like they did not believe her.

01:31:02.000 And even one of the jurors has given an interview to a news outlet saying we never believed any of her claims of abuse.

01:31:08.680 We knew that she was acting.

01:31:10.260 We did not believe her.

01:31:11.840 So I really don't.

01:31:13.220 And I don't know if it's been said, but the mistake was she was so poorly prepared to testify.

01:31:18.500 He was honest and open, unbelievably.

01:31:22.400 All she needed to do was sit down and say, oh, there were things that I did that I'm embarrassed.

01:31:29.260 Yes, the poop was my job.

01:31:31.660 I did that.

01:31:32.580 I said horrible things to him.

01:31:34.380 She didn't admit anything.

01:31:36.460 And thus, when she had claims that they could have embraced, potentially, supported by her sister, supported by some of the audio recordings, they just rejected her outright.

01:31:45.640 She wasn't prepared at all because being abused, being abused or feeling abused, that's a very kind of abstract term.

01:31:55.180 It could be verbal.

01:31:56.020 It could be physical.

01:31:57.000 They would have accepted it to some extent, I think, maybe, if she had just been open and honest about other stuff.

01:32:03.220 But she wasn't.

01:32:04.360 Now, Megan, I disagree.

01:32:05.900 I think she was overprepared.

01:32:07.580 Her testimony came across so damn rehearsed that it was almost you think that she learned a whole new script for it.

01:32:15.520 And the jury didn't buy it and the public didn't buy it.

01:32:18.360 And you know what?

01:32:18.980 The fact that her team thinks that maybe social media didn't do her any favors, I think social media did do her favors because they were so hard on her based on what everybody was watching that I actually started to feel sorry for her.

01:32:32.300 So if I'm feeling sorry for her and I'm an ice queen, then the jury might have started to feel a little sorry for her too.

01:32:38.740 I'm an ice queen.

01:32:39.000 That's why she got a little $2 million. 0.89

01:32:42.800 No, no, no.

01:32:43.660 Sympathy team of one.

01:32:46.620 She was crucified on social media.

01:32:48.620 My kids were bringing me all the TikToks.

01:32:50.940 She was crucified.

01:32:52.780 It was delightful for those who were getting the ticket.

01:32:55.720 But it actually did make me feel sorry for her because it was so relentless.

01:32:59.940 But I mean, too bad.

01:33:00.820 It was like, that's not a grounds for appeal.

01:33:02.940 First of all, the jurors are not supposed to be looking at social media unless the defense.

01:33:06.480 I mean, Amber Heard has proof they did.

01:33:09.260 She's just, you know, she's throwing darts without a real target. 1.00

01:33:13.360 And secondly, secondly, she started the PR war.

01:33:16.380 She started it.

01:33:17.360 She's the one who called TMZ and said, take pictures of me outside of the she did.

01:33:20.660 They proved that at trial.

01:33:21.540 So you cannot, as I said, my talking points the day after the verdict, live by the sword,

01:33:25.960 die by the sword.

01:33:26.860 You can't start the PR war, lose it and then cry.

01:33:30.220 I'm a victim and this is unfair.

01:33:32.880 Well, I disagree.

01:33:34.260 I disagree.

01:33:35.300 No, no, no.

01:33:35.740 I got to disagree with Megan.

01:33:37.000 You could start it if it persists.

01:33:39.860 And that then influences the jury, which they cannot prove.

01:33:43.700 That's a different story.

01:33:44.900 They can't prove it.

01:33:45.660 That's the problem.

01:33:46.300 You can start it.

01:33:47.180 And if that somehow adversely affects the jury,

01:33:50.460 because it continues and somehow their verdict is based upon a tick tock that they saw or

01:33:57.120 other influences other than the evidence in the law, then, yeah, you've got an argument.

01:34:01.920 Unfortunately, they're not going to be able to prove it.

01:34:03.380 Yeah, they have not been able to close that loop.

01:34:05.260 All right.

01:34:05.500 Let me finish with this.

01:34:06.680 A woman is suing over a date that didn't happen.

01:34:12.020 OK, wait, let me.

01:34:13.080 I have so many papers in front of me.

01:34:14.580 I got it.

01:34:14.960 I got to get to this because it's amazing.

01:34:16.400 Um, the woman says that her she went out on one date with the man.

01:34:22.040 Oh, here it is.

01:34:23.100 Her name is Kashante Short of Flint, Michigan.

01:34:26.620 They went out on one date.

01:34:27.880 They were supposed to go on another.

01:34:29.600 He did not show.

01:34:30.420 Now she's suing him for intentional infliction of emotional distress, saying it was the anniversary

01:34:36.060 of her mother's death or it was her mother's birthday and her mother had just passed away

01:34:39.040 and he knew it and it caused a lot of pain.

01:34:42.720 And here's the defendant, Richard Jordan, making his defense to the judge.

01:34:47.680 We had a date, one date and nothing else after that.

01:34:54.100 And now I'm being sued for $10,000.

01:34:56.680 It was I don't see how this is going to go any further.

01:35:01.180 I think it's a waste of your time.

01:35:03.420 The judge said then file a motion to dismiss.

01:35:05.620 Here's a bit of the exchange between the plaintiff Kashante and the judge himself when she claimed

01:35:11.360 that was a lie, that the defendant was lying to the judge.

01:35:14.220 Watch.

01:35:14.360 It was never perjury in the beginning.

01:35:17.920 It was perjury after his response.

01:35:21.060 Well, you can't you can't say, listen, he has he has the right to put whatever is in the answer.

01:35:29.120 I'm not saying he can't.

01:35:30.740 You can't do you can't add another count because you don't like or you disagree with what is

01:35:36.500 in his answer.

01:35:37.380 If he respond and his response is a lie, it's perjury, then my documents will prove that

01:35:44.700 he lied in his response.

01:35:46.440 No, no, no, no, no, no.

01:35:50.460 It's his version.

01:35:51.820 First of all, do you understand what perjury is?

01:35:54.360 Yes.

01:35:54.940 I know what perjury means.

01:35:58.120 Perjury is a statement, a false statement made under oath.

01:36:02.240 Exactly.

01:36:03.080 And I can have documents that prove he was lying.

01:36:05.740 OK, so what do we think about Kashante's chances of recovering her $10,000, Jonna?

01:36:15.880 I love this case.

01:36:18.000 Well, first of all, it's not a thing.

01:36:19.760 You can't sue somebody for standing you up on a date.

01:36:22.640 It's not.

01:36:23.300 It doesn't rise to emotional distress.

01:36:24.940 But I got to love this poor schlub who had the one date who's now holding the court on

01:36:30.880 this. 0.99

01:36:31.180 He's got to be saying to himself, damn, I dodged a bullet. 1.00

01:36:37.760 He's got to be. 0.99

01:36:39.060 And that poor judge, you know, she was giving it right back to him. 0.96

01:36:41.520 There's more to that video where, you know, she says to the judge, are we done here?

01:36:46.260 Like, could you imagine?

01:36:48.320 There's a picture of the defendant with just his head buried in his hands.

01:36:51.960 He's so unhappy.

01:36:53.020 Mark, do you disagree?

01:36:54.660 She should pay for his gas to the court. 0.77

01:36:58.360 Yes.

01:36:58.720 She should pay for every single expense. 0.96

01:37:01.940 She should be fined. 0.98

01:37:03.540 And she apparently has a history of malicious prosecution against people. 0.57

01:37:08.540 Oh, I hate vexatious litigants. 0.95

01:37:10.880 All right.

01:37:11.400 I stole the last word.

01:37:12.320 You guys hate that, but don't hate you.

01:37:14.240 Love you guys.

01:37:14.780 Thank you so much.

01:37:16.120 Want to tell the audience that I'm going to be off for a short vacation next week, but

01:37:19.940 we will be back with a fantastic lineup of guests, Adam Carolla, Dr. Laura, yay, and

01:37:26.160 Glenn, back to name just a few.

01:37:27.420 So see you in about one week.

01:37:29.720 And thank you in the meantime so much for listening.

01:37:34.800 Thanks for listening to The Megyn Kelly Show. 0.94

01:37:36.700 No BS, no agenda, and no fear.

The Megyn Kelly Show - July 22, 2022

Defund Fallout, Arizona Showdown, and the Hunter Biden Probe, with Rafael Mangual, Karrin Taylor Robson, Jonna Spilbor, and Mark Eiglarsh ｜ Ep. 363

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