The Megyn Kelly Show - Election Day, With Gov. Mike Huckabee and Joe Trippi

00:00:00.460 Welcome to The Megyn Kelly Show, your home for open, honest, and provocative conversations.

00:00:06.840 It's Election Day. What should we expect tonight and into this week?

00:00:12.400 Two politics veterans from the right and the left will join us on the show today.

00:00:16.980 Governor Mike Huckabee and Joe Trippi, two of my favorites. This is going to be a good one.

00:00:21.640 Happy Election Day, everyone. I'm Megyn Kelly and this is The Megyn Kelly Show.

00:00:31.200 So glad to have you with us. This is it. Election Day 2020.

00:00:36.140 It has finally arrived as we always knew it would. And I see this as a day to express your love for your country.

00:00:43.880 Whoever you vote for, you get in there and in effect, you're voting for the United States of America.

00:00:48.160 The way it runs its election systems, the people it nominates through a democratic process.

00:00:54.420 That's what you go in there for today. Yes, you may have your political preferences and that's fine.

00:00:59.760 But this is about more than that. It's about expressing, exercising your responsibility, your right.

00:01:07.400 It's it's a gift. We're all blessed to live here and not everybody gets to do this.

00:01:12.620 Some people die in other parts of the world just for the one chance of getting into a polling station and casting a ballot like millions of Americans will do today.

00:01:21.900 I see this is your chance to say what matters. This is it. Right.

00:01:25.480 And I do think that if you don't vote, you really do sacrifice your right to complain.

00:01:29.540 It's like I tell my kids, if you're not going to do anything about your about your problem, nothing at all, even though you've been advised on the potential options, you waive your right to complain about it.

00:01:38.220 Right. You have to be proactive in your own life, both in terms of what you do in your apartment or your home and what and in terms of what you do at the polling station today.

00:01:47.100 So go vote. If you haven't, if you fail to register, at least make a note on the calendar to register for the next one, because I know a lot of people start to beat themselves up that they miss the opportunity.

00:01:57.460 Well, there's always tomorrow. Right now for this particular election, unless you're committing voter fraud.

00:02:01.900 But in the future, I mean, I've been thinking a lot about what I wanted to say to you guys today because I've been thinking a lot about the last four years and how we got to where we are.

00:02:11.000 We're incredibly divided. We're there's so much hate.

00:02:15.160 There's breaking up of friends and families over their electoral politics, which is insane.

00:02:21.900 The press is at an all time low in terms of its respect and trust.

00:02:26.140 And I've been thinking back to how we got here.

00:02:31.240 Four years ago, Americans went to the polls and they shocked the world.

00:02:35.500 They shocked the world by electing a reality TV star as president, a P.T. Barnum like circus character.

00:02:41.620 Right. Known for as much for his questionable real estate deals as for his extramarital affairs and his bankrupt casinos.

00:02:48.620 Trump. Everyone told us he's not going to be president.

00:02:51.380 That's what everyone said, from Barack Obama to the pollsters to even some of my own Fox News colleagues who loved the guy, but just could not see a pathway to 270 electoral votes for him.

00:03:03.000 And then the electoral votes started to come in.

00:03:05.460 The results, the actual results.

00:03:07.840 November 8th, 2016.

00:03:09.680 Boom. Florida, Georgia, North Carolina.

00:03:12.300 I remember that was a huge one.

00:03:14.080 Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin.

00:03:16.240 Who the heck would have thought?

00:03:17.320 Pennsylvania, Iowa, and on it went until Donald J.

00:03:22.520 Trump became the 45th president of the United States.

00:03:25.640 Right. No one could believe it.

00:03:27.360 Very few people could believe it or had predicted it.

00:03:30.060 I remember watching in awe at Fox as we we cut between the stunned looking Hillary supporters in an utterly dejected, sad, panicked looking Javits Center here in New York City where the fireworks never did go off.

00:03:44.800 The balloons did not drop from the ceiling and then, you know, cut to the exuberant crowd over at Trump headquarters where you saw kids who look like they found the golden ticket.

00:03:55.540 Right. A feat so spectacular, even they seem to struggle to actually believe it.

00:04:00.360 From day one, Trump's White House.

00:04:03.220 It got off to a rocky start, right?

00:04:05.060 I mean, you know that they misled us about things from crowd size to hurricane paths.

00:04:09.500 Yes, we'd see that with the Sharpie later, a pandemic's seriousness.

00:04:13.980 They they denied virtually every piece of bad news, real and fake, which started to blend together over time.

00:04:21.060 And that was a Trump tactic that led the country into what we now call call a post truth world.

00:04:26.500 But it was one that worked brilliantly against a dishonest, biased, self-discrediting media that war between them.

00:04:35.960 The press and the president left us, the American people, as its casualties, people who wanted truth, who who believed in fact.

00:04:46.540 Time and time again, Trump has baited the press into self-humiliation.

00:04:54.220 He tweet and they would they would respond how high any crumb he left.

00:04:59.000 They followed and ate it.

00:05:00.760 They lost all ability to see and report on him clearly and objectively.

00:05:04.100 And instead, they put on their resistance hats proudly and took up rhetorical arms against the guy.

00:05:10.420 The media committed suicide during the Trump presidency, and Trump was their Kevorkian.

00:05:15.860 And the only remaining question was, would the media return the favor as they took their last remaining breaths?

00:05:25.020 Today, we'll find out.

00:05:27.060 Trump's petty Twitter wars waged on incessantly.

00:05:30.020 You know that he has insulted women's looks again.

00:05:32.900 He's pushed push conspiracy theories like Scarborough may have allegedly killed an intern.

00:05:37.740 Scarborough says it's not true.

00:05:39.100 I mean, this is crazy.

00:05:40.820 The people were told you must recoil in disgust and think Trump was awful in every way.

00:05:44.640 But every morning, the news would come that Trump, while he was doing all these nutty things, was actually getting results.

00:05:52.560 He was passing legislation that, frankly, exceeded most Republicans' wildest dreams.

00:05:57.940 That's not the story you would read in the press, however.

00:05:59.940 They have waxed poetically in the past days, weeks, and even years about how awful and tyrannical he has been, how dangerous his reelection would be, that we can't afford four more years of this.

00:06:11.360 They malign his supporters as bigoted, as dolts who don't understand this is a modern-day Hitler.

00:06:16.580 And since so many of his supporters have been shamed into silence, and they have.

00:06:22.260 I realize there are people out there with the MAGA hats and the trucks and the bumper stickers, but there are millions of Americans who no longer will say anything about Trump because they're afraid.

00:06:29.700 And that's what led me to want to take this word this morning on why millions of people will go to the polls.

00:06:37.580 And behind the curtain, they will pull the lever for Donald Trump.

00:06:41.060 No matter the result today, whether he wins or loses, they do not deserve scorn.

00:06:49.360 Their vote matters, too.

00:06:50.980 And it doesn't mean they're bigots or awful or stupid.

00:06:55.100 The truth is that while Trump was out there tweeting and golfing and watching cable news repeatedly over his first term, he was also getting things done.

00:07:03.580 He was.

00:07:04.400 He cut taxes.

00:07:05.520 He rolled back scores of regulations that had been crippling corporate America.

00:07:09.840 He helped America achieve energy independence, oh, that.

00:07:13.760 He worked to deter illegal border crossings, albeit with family separations that continue to haunt us all.

00:07:20.220 I mean, the images of those children are terrible.

00:07:22.120 But that was in an effort to crack down on a real problem at the border.

00:07:26.400 And he did ultimately build at least some of that wall, though not enough.

00:07:30.200 If you ask Ann Coulter, he tried to restore due process for young men on college campuses who had been accused of sexual misconduct, who under Obama had virtually all of their rights entirely gutted.

00:07:41.380 They had no rights.

00:07:42.220 He rescinded a dangerous nuclear deal with Iran, which was a mirage.

00:07:47.100 And he pulled us out of the Paris Climate Accords, which many Republicans in particular felt hurt American workers unfairly.

00:07:53.920 The one thing we haven't talked about a lot in this election is terrorism.

00:07:57.240 Remember four years earlier?

00:07:58.960 We talked about terrorism all the time, about ISIS putting people in cages, torturing people.

00:08:04.500 Trump worked with our allies to destroy the ISIS caliphate, including killing its leader, al-Baghdadi.

00:08:09.800 Remember that?

00:08:10.460 I don't know why he doesn't mention this stuff.

00:08:12.220 He dropped a bomb on Iran's General Soleimani, who had killed hundreds of U.S. troops, despite many predicting that doing so would cause a war, which it has not.

00:08:21.800 Trump pushed for peace in the Middle East, moving the American embassy to Jerusalem, which many had said they do, but none did.

00:08:28.160 He helped convince countries like Sudan, Bahrain, and the UAE to sign historic deals that recognize Israel and which very well may be precursors to peace.

00:08:37.220 No one talked about it.

00:08:38.220 I listen to the New York Times podcast, The Daily.

00:08:40.380 I thought for sure they'd be talking about that.

00:08:42.220 Trump never mentioned.

00:08:44.200 God, they were down the rabbit hole on some obscure, boring, esoteric stories, but didn't even devote one little episode to that.

00:08:52.580 Trump, of course, appointed three jurors to the United States Supreme Court, originalists from the Federalist Society, some of those conservatives approved, and 220, 220 conservative jurors to the lower federal courts.

00:09:04.820 He's also repeatedly cited as the most pro-life president we've seen in a lifetime.

00:09:09.140 I personally don't believe Donald Trump when he says that that's a heartfelt commitment he has.

00:09:14.180 I think he sort of blows with the wind on that issue, but there's no denying the results.

00:09:17.820 If you are pro-life, he's done more for your side than any previous president has.

00:09:21.420 Trump passed legislation that should have delighted even the left, right?

00:09:25.460 Even the left.

00:09:26.760 The most significant criminal justice reform law in years.

00:09:29.780 He worked with Van Jones, and then Van Jones promptly got excoriated by the left for deigning to work with Jared Kushner on such a legislation.

00:09:37.680 But it was it was something the left should have loved.

00:09:40.560 And then the Anti-Sex Trafficking Act to protect exploited young women.

00:09:44.340 That was something the Democrats, AOC and others refused to even applaud him for at the State of the Union after he got it done.

00:09:50.360 Meantime, his economy was booming by any standard.

00:09:55.440 Unemployment was at a low not seen in 50 years.

00:09:58.260 It was at record lows for blacks, Hispanics and women before the terrible pandemic hit.

00:10:04.560 The pandemic that would change the world.

00:10:07.680 The Democrats never let up on him.

00:10:09.480 Not not not for one minute.

00:10:11.860 From day one, they were calling for his impeachment.

00:10:13.580 That is actually true within hours of him being sworn in.

00:10:17.280 They and the complicit media pushed a BS case of Russian collusion that even the once very respected Robert Mueller could not ultimately make.

00:10:26.680 And then they impeached him over something else.

00:10:28.700 As soon as the Russia thing failed, they impeached him over something else for an odd and off,

00:10:34.500 but not illegal phone call with the Ukrainian leader that never did lead to a quid pro quo.

00:10:40.340 And as soon as they failed to convict him, they started in again, questioning whether they might give it another try on that or some other subject.

00:10:47.840 The New York Times published Trump's likely illegally leaked taxes.

00:10:51.500 No one seemed to have a problem with it, though they wouldn't print the Hunter Biden story.

00:10:55.560 Staffer after staffer turned on Trump.

00:10:57.640 Some we respected and loved and might still.

00:10:59.720 John Kelly, Mattis.

00:11:01.380 And yet any of them, any of them were afforded media anonymity to bash Trump, no matter how far up his backside they'd been when their egos needed his love and approval.

00:11:10.580 Right.

00:11:11.240 And no matter how high or low they really were on the D.C. totem pole, as we saw this week.

00:11:18.220 Trump never did find a way to talk about race or women or immigrants respectfully.

00:11:22.720 Though he did condemn white supremacy repeatedly, and he never called the Charlottesville Klansmen good people, despite the media's dishonest reports.

00:11:32.540 He came with jagged edges that often cut deep.

00:11:36.220 And anyone deemed an enemy for a day or a debate has the scars to prove it.

00:11:42.780 But he also kept us safe from another terrorist attack.

00:11:47.920 He kept us out of war with North Korea.

00:11:49.980 And he did not start unnecessary quagmires in the Middle East, as some other Republican presidents did.

00:11:57.040 How important were his tweets, really?

00:12:00.360 His thin-skinned nature, his occasional cruelty, his childish relationship with the truth.

00:12:07.620 The pandemic hit and he stopped travel from China.

00:12:10.840 This likely saved lives.

00:12:12.780 Joe Biden called it xenophobic, which he now denies.

00:12:15.340 But his tweet came out within an hour of the policy or so.

00:12:19.180 We were told it was all Trump's fault, that his actions alone cost 220,000 Americans their lives.

00:12:25.260 But his European counterparts didn't disagree either.

00:12:28.380 And the same people condemning Trump seem totally disinterested in a Democratic governor here in New York,

00:12:33.540 who signed an order putting COVID-positive patients in nursing homes, where some 6,000 seniors later died.

00:12:41.180 But Trump, but Trump, but Trump, they say.

00:12:43.740 Well, Trump, it's true, he did not show a lot of empathy.

00:12:46.760 And we lost a lot of people we loved.

00:12:50.240 He didn't cry.

00:12:51.960 He didn't touch anyone with soaring rhetoric.

00:12:54.060 But the truth is, Trump is not capable of empathy.

00:12:57.620 It's something I've been watching for in him for years.

00:13:02.700 He doesn't have it.

00:13:04.400 The truth is, that is an emotion beyond his range.

00:13:07.040 George Floyd was killed.

00:13:11.240 And the country burned.

00:13:13.360 A powder keg simmering already from a quarantine that had cost so many, so much.

00:13:19.540 Trump poured fuel on the Black Lives Matter fire.

00:13:22.680 He allowed federal officers to brutalize peaceful protesters outside the White House

00:13:26.580 so he could have a meaningless photo op across the street with a Bible.

00:13:29.980 That happened.

00:13:30.500 Eventually, he stopped, simply tweeting law and order, which wasn't particularly helpful.

00:13:35.940 And he did defend the police, who were called uniformly racist, brutal, and even homicidal.

00:13:44.060 He defended America, which these bully wokesters said was systemically racist and awful,

00:13:50.500 and even founded with the express goal of preserving slavery, which was a lie.

00:13:55.140 He mocked the absurd calls to reject Abraham Lincoln and George Washington as American heroes,

00:14:02.420 as their statues were torn down.

00:14:04.940 And he condemned what those once peaceful protests, peaceful protests,

00:14:09.620 which, by the way, make America beautiful, had clearly become, which were riots, terrorizing innocents.

00:14:16.840 Trump said pigs in a blanket is no rallying cry,

00:14:21.560 and that defunding the cops would get more Black people killed.

00:14:26.640 He stood up to the woke know-it-alls, and he canceled the divisive critical race theory sessions

00:14:31.560 being mandated by the federal government, at which people who had previously been colleagues and friends

00:14:36.120 were suddenly being shamed for their pigmentation, openly and unapologetically.

00:14:40.320 Trump stood up for personal freedom, and he eschewed forever shutdowns

00:14:46.220 and the unwillingness of schools to reopen and teach, no matter what the infection rate,

00:14:51.200 no matter how safe the protocols.

00:14:53.920 But as is so often the case with Trump, he stumbled in the midst of it, too.

00:14:59.940 Bob Woodward played us the tapes of Trump admitting he intentionally downplayed the pandemic.

00:15:06.360 He didn't arm us with the information we needed to protect ourselves.

00:15:11.140 And today, he says, just wait, I may fire Dr. Fauci,

00:15:14.000 and tells us we're turning the corner on a virus that's actually spiking,

00:15:18.640 though with better outcomes than we had before.

00:15:22.980 And now, four years later, here we are again.

00:15:27.560 All the polls but one have him losing this election.

00:15:31.280 His voters are used to being condemned as bigots and fools.

00:15:35.900 But the pollsters say, why wouldn't they tell us the truth about how they're voting?

00:15:39.400 What do you mean, shy Trump voter?

00:15:42.240 Biden's heading for a landslide, they say.

00:15:45.280 Unless he's not.

00:15:48.060 Unless the night is P.T. Barnum's.

00:15:52.000 Unless he's put center stage again.

00:15:55.120 To conduct the show once more.

00:15:57.780 He dazzles and delights.

00:16:00.480 He scares, shocks.

00:16:02.860 He horrifies.

00:16:03.900 But in the end, he stands up to the menacing beasts around him for himself and his fans.

00:16:13.460 And the audience, having watched it all time and again, finds itself sated and possibly ready for more.

00:16:24.500 That's what we're going to find out today.

00:16:29.780 And those are some of the reasons people will go and pull the lever for Trump, and it doesn't make them awful.

00:16:34.800 And it doesn't mean you need to be one of those people.

00:16:38.460 All I'm calling for is an understanding.

00:16:40.600 An understanding of them.

00:16:42.040 No one shames the Joe Biden voters.

00:16:44.280 And the Trump voters don't deserve that either.

00:16:46.500 Trump's a complicated man.

00:16:49.640 Not all bad.

00:16:50.580 Not all good.

00:16:51.460 Like most of us.

00:16:53.080 He's not a Hitler-esque person.

00:16:55.520 And neither are his supporters.

00:16:59.380 Democracy's on the line today.

00:17:02.180 And you will support it no matter who you vote for.

00:17:05.420 I'm looking forward to the results.

00:17:07.120 And I personally just hope they come soon.

00:17:09.560 Coming up in one minute, we're going to be joined by Mike Huckabee with his take on what to expect today.

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00:18:55.680 Join me now, Mike Huckabee, former governor of Arkansas, former presidential candidate, and now host of The People's Podcast on Quake Media.

00:19:05.160 Governor, so good to have you here.

00:19:07.140 Thank you for coming.

00:19:07.780 Hey, Megan, it's great to be on the podcast with you.

00:19:11.420 And I got to tell you, I've missed you.

00:19:13.000 You know, I used to see you like every week, mostly in New York, and enjoyed visiting with you.

00:19:18.560 I always liked your savvy approach to things.

00:19:21.660 And I'm glad your voice is fully charged back into the workspace again.

00:19:28.060 Thank you.

00:19:28.660 I've missed you, too.

00:19:29.560 We always had such fun discussions.

00:19:31.420 You were always so gracious because you were somebody who was obviously partisan.

00:19:35.100 You know, you're no mystery there, but really kind.

00:19:40.920 Everything you ever said, it almost never came from a place of meanness.

00:19:46.440 I feel like our politics, they've gotten so mean.

00:19:49.040 And you were always able to laugh at yourself, at me, at our weird world.

00:19:54.160 And I liked that.

00:19:55.140 That always played well for me.

00:19:56.600 Well, I miss that mindset in the public space today because it seems like everybody is angry.

00:20:05.720 People have lost their sense of humor.

00:20:07.760 And I can be snarky.

00:20:09.420 In fact, I enjoy being snarky sometimes, especially on Twitter, because I think that's where snark lives.

00:20:15.380 But I'm not mad about it.

00:20:18.320 And I don't try to go out there and hurt anyone.

00:20:21.080 I really don't.

00:20:22.360 I'll point out some flaws that I see in people on the other side who can't seem to see themselves in the mirror.

00:20:31.240 But I have fun with it.

00:20:32.580 A lot of the stuff is tongue-in-cheek.

00:20:34.200 But I find that people who can't see things tongue-in-cheek, they want to put a fist in my cheek over it.

00:20:41.680 And I'm just disappointed in that because I can disagree with people, but I enjoy the conversation with them.

00:20:49.260 But I can enjoy a conversation with people who substitute volume for substance of thought.

00:20:56.740 Or when they move from what facts are and they only want to talk about what I think, what I believe, what I feel.

00:21:06.600 Feelings are fine.

00:21:08.180 But ultimately, it should come back to something a little more objective than that.

00:21:12.700 Yeah.

00:21:13.180 Well, you know, it's when the facts are not good for your side, you tend to switch to something else like feelings or your lived experience, which isn't all that probative.

00:21:23.220 All right.

00:21:23.520 So let's talk about today.

00:21:24.720 This is an exciting day.

00:21:25.780 I feel excited.

00:21:26.820 I just feel excited about democracy and the United States of America doing what it does and showing the rest of the world how it's done.

00:21:32.980 May have some warts on it.

00:21:34.360 We all know that.

00:21:35.180 But it's still the best system in the world.

00:21:37.960 And it's underway.

00:21:39.000 This is it.

00:21:39.480 Millions of Americans doing their civic duty, going to the polls, having their say, whatever their say is.

00:21:45.100 It always makes me feel uplifted.

00:21:48.120 But people are not going to feel uplifted if their side loses, because, as you well know, enormous dejection comes to one side inevitably on a day like this or maybe over the next couple of days, depending when we get the results.

00:22:01.160 What do you think now on actual voting day?

00:22:04.200 What's going to make the difference today?

00:22:05.700 This is a turnout election, without any question.

00:22:10.320 Which side gets their voters to go and vote?

00:22:13.780 How many of those people have already voted?

00:22:15.960 I mean, we know that 100 million have, which is stunning.

00:22:19.120 More people than voted in all of 2016.

00:22:21.940 That in itself is significant.

00:22:24.460 But we don't know.

00:22:26.700 Was that because the Trump voters were determined to go vote?

00:22:29.720 Or was it because the Biden voters, who can't stand Trump, were going to go and vote against him?

00:22:38.580 I don't think anybody, I've not seen any indication that people are voting for Joe Biden.

00:22:43.900 You just don't see people saying, boy, his message really makes sense.

00:22:48.100 Because half the time, it's gibberish.

00:22:51.060 They don't even, he doesn't understand what he's saying.

00:22:53.020 But there is a very strong hate Trump atmosphere that exists out there that is driving the Biden voter.

00:23:03.480 On the other hand, the Trump voters are fully energized, engaged.

00:23:07.620 Nothing is going to keep them from voting.

00:23:10.120 All of the attempts to say, well, the polls are showing overwhelmingly Biden is going to win.

00:23:14.980 91% chance, says 538.

00:23:18.860 They don't care.

00:23:20.100 They're going to go vote anyway.

00:23:20.960 So I see the energy that's out there.

00:23:23.780 But it's really a referendum on Donald Trump and his presidency.

00:23:27.460 But I would even say it's really not his presidency that's on the line.

00:23:30.900 It's his personality, which is unfortunate.

00:23:33.580 Because honestly, there are things about his personality that can be off-putting, even to those of us who love him.

00:23:42.260 You know, he'll say things and tweet things that are cringeworthy.

00:23:45.660 But I'm not looking at someone to be my room mother and bring cupcakes to the class.

00:23:52.040 I'm honestly looking at someone who will implement policies that will be better for my grandchildren.

00:23:57.420 And that's where this comes down for me.

00:24:01.040 It's funny because I'm sure if people had been, you know, more transparent, we'd realize we've had a lot of pricks as president.

00:24:08.100 I mean, like, I just think most people just, most people hide it better than Trump.

00:24:14.180 It's like Hannity used to say, Trump's problem isn't that he lies.

00:24:16.700 His problem is that he tells the truth.

00:24:19.360 He doesn't hide enough.

00:24:20.680 Well, and I think what you just said is very true, part of which is because the press historically has given presidents, and really all politicians, a certain layer of protection.

00:24:35.780 Did the American public know about FDR and his dalliances, or JFK?

00:24:41.840 No, they just simply were never told about those things.

00:24:45.260 People made their minds up about these presidents because of what they did, not because of the things that maybe were going on behind the scenes that had nothing to do with their job performance.

00:24:56.580 Now, tonight, when the shows get started and we start to see the anchors come out to the anchor desks, here's the thing I'm going to be looking at as somebody who's done this for years.

00:25:05.240 And what happens usually at Fox News at five o'clock on election night, we would always have a pre-show meeting with the pollsters, with the decision desk people who were, you basically get two per news company.

00:25:19.660 They get invited to look at the exit polls.

00:25:22.480 They are sworn to secrecy.

00:25:24.300 They won't tell you anything.

00:25:25.660 They wouldn't tell me anything, even a heads up, prior to sharing it with the group, because they are just, you know, they're Boy Scouts and Girl Scouts.

00:25:31.640 So you sit around and they tell you, and I'll never forget last time, four years ago, they sit around and they said, it looks like it's going to be a very good night for Hillary Clinton.

00:25:41.020 And that's what the exit polls were showing at that point.

00:25:43.600 These are not partisan guys.

00:25:44.660 They truly have no dog in the hunt at all.

00:25:47.820 So it's going to be a very good night for Hillary Clinton.

00:25:49.580 So that, of course, turned out to be wrong.

00:25:51.540 But what I look for, as you see the anchors go on the sets on Fox, on CNN, on MSNBC, on all of them, is they'll telegraph something.

00:26:02.220 They'll be saying something like, you know, will Hillary Clinton be able to pull it out?

00:26:08.040 Early signs are positive.

00:26:09.520 Anything could happen.

00:26:10.840 But and there'll be a tell in some way of more than they're allowed to share at that point as to what the exit polls are showing.

00:26:18.060 Now, it doesn't mean it's going to turn out to be right, but the anchors are limited in what they can say, but they can sort of telegraph with their overall tone where they think the night is going.

00:26:27.220 And we'll see whether tonight is more accurate than last time.

00:26:30.300 What are you going to be looking for when things get underway?

00:26:33.860 Well, I'm going to be looking for some early results out of places like Pennsylvania, Florida, Iowa, Michigan and North Carolina.

00:26:40.400 I think that's going to be a key.

00:26:41.960 If Donald Trump doesn't win Florida, then he's in trouble and he's got to win Pennsylvania, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina and probably Wisconsin and maybe Arizona.

00:26:53.660 I mean, that's going to be a big one.

00:26:55.400 But if he wins Florida and he wins Pennsylvania, I think it's lights out.

00:27:01.860 I really do.

00:27:02.780 I think the others start falling in line.

00:27:04.980 I remember four years ago, Megan, I had for weeks said Donald Trump was going to win and I had arguments, maybe even with you.

00:27:13.280 I don't remember specifically, but I had arguments on air with a lot of our Fox anchors and others who said, and here was the big catch line.

00:27:23.520 There is no pathway for him to win.

00:27:26.240 And that was the line, no pathway.

00:27:28.120 I said, well, I'm going to tell you something.

00:27:29.700 There is a pathway and he is going to win.

00:27:32.520 And people thought I was nuts, but I based it on what I was seeing once I left New York and Washington.

00:27:40.580 And I was spending most of my time out in the hinterland on the campaign trail with then candidate Donald Trump and out there on my own.

00:27:49.900 And what I was seeing was not a campaign.

00:27:52.540 It was a movement.

00:27:53.460 It was people who were tired of being subjugated to the back of the political bus, who were sick and tired of being denigrated as deplorables, as people hanging on to their religion and their guns and dismissed as rubes and yokels, treated like dirt when it came to trade deals.

00:28:14.140 Their jobs had disappeared.

00:28:15.440 Their wages had stagnated for 40 years.

00:28:18.060 They were angry.

00:28:18.900 It was not an electorate that was interested in solutions as much as it was.

00:28:25.340 They wanted to take the institutions of government that had crushed them into dust.

00:28:31.040 And they wanted basically to say, let's tear that down and start over.

00:28:36.720 And Donald Trump was the change agent to deliver that.

00:28:39.320 But I honestly believe he will win.

00:28:43.340 And it could be a significant victory, one that will blow polls completely out of the landscape forever.

00:28:52.200 Now, why?

00:28:53.060 I agree with you, because if he wins tonight, polls are done.

00:28:56.700 Other than Trafalgar and Robert Cahaley, they are done.

00:29:00.180 Because I will go back to that four years ago.

00:29:03.060 Well, actually, let's go back eight years to Mitt Romney.

00:29:04.940 And I believed the polls.

00:29:08.960 The polls said that he was going to lose.

00:29:10.940 And he did.

00:29:11.900 And I believe the polls.

00:29:13.160 Then we get to 2016.

00:29:14.960 And the polls said Donald Trump was going to lose.

00:29:17.060 And I said, I believe those two.

00:29:18.700 Right?

00:29:18.860 The polls.

00:29:19.580 You're supposed to trust the polls.

00:29:21.440 And the polls were wrong.

00:29:23.840 And I think we all learned an important lesson through Trump.

00:29:26.860 And I don't know if it holds, you know, for future Republicans, but certainly for the Donald Trump vote, it always has to have a big asterisk next to it.

00:29:35.120 Because people people do lie to the pollsters when it comes to him.

00:29:38.080 They lie to their neighbors.

00:29:38.920 They lie on Facebook.

00:29:40.080 They lie to their employers.

00:29:41.240 They lie to their friends.

00:29:42.580 Because the media has done such a good job of saturating the airwaves with you're a bigot if you like him.

00:29:47.620 You're a racist.

00:29:48.240 You're a transphobic.

00:29:48.880 You're sexist.

00:29:49.420 You're whatever.

00:29:50.420 And people don't want to be called those names.

00:29:53.060 They're smart.

00:29:53.620 They tend to telegraph what the other person wants to hear just to avoid conflict in a lot of cases.

00:30:00.280 So we're in that same boat right now.

00:30:01.800 We don't know how many of them there are.

00:30:04.180 The polls are showing Biden up more than Hillary was over Trump, including as recently as today.

00:30:11.500 And so how do you think that factors in, that there is a shy Trump vote, but Biden is up more over Trump than Hillary was?

00:30:19.500 I think there's two factors.

00:30:20.620 You know, you talk about the shy Trump voter, and I believe that.

00:30:23.120 There are people that don't want to put a yard sign or a bumper sticker on their car because they don't want their car scratched up, but they don't want their home egg or worse burned down.

00:30:32.540 They don't want people breaking down their doors.

00:30:35.780 And they see, you know, this mass of violence going on around the country, people being sucker punched because they were wearing a MAGA hat.

00:30:44.420 And people just don't want to have that.

00:30:46.160 They don't want to have arguments with their own family members.

00:30:48.240 They don't want to be disinvited to Thanksgiving dinner because they dare vote for Donald Trump.

00:30:52.680 So they just keep their mouth shut.

00:30:54.300 They may even lie and say, I'm voting for Biden.

00:30:56.800 Yeah, just to keep kind of an even keel in the conversation.

00:31:00.840 But when you see these rallies at airports and 57, 58,000 people show up on a cold night and they stand, they stand.

00:31:10.660 They don't.

00:31:10.900 It's not seated for hours.

00:31:13.020 So they can hear Donald Trump give the basic same speech that they've heard on television a dozen times.

00:31:18.340 And Joe Biden has a, quote, rally.

00:31:22.020 He gets up on a little stand in a parking lot with a dozen cars.

00:31:26.500 He squints his eyes and he screams at cars for 20 minutes.

00:31:31.600 And then he disappears.

00:31:32.880 And there's 20 cars, a dozen cars in the parking lot.

00:31:36.540 They may honk their horn just to stay awake.

00:31:39.480 And and that's his rally.

00:31:41.800 Yeah.

00:31:42.300 I mean, no, you see his rally.

00:31:44.020 It is like I understand now the basement strategy.

00:31:46.520 That was probably better because with all due respect to Joe Biden, those rallies just look sad.

00:31:50.740 They just I mean, they just look sad.

00:31:52.260 And I feel like what's even sadder is to see Barack Obama in front of those rallies or standing in front of four people because, you know, it's just a far cry from Invesco field with the Greek columns in 2008, where it was like the second coming has arrived and people went nuts.

00:32:06.840 I realize it's a covid world, but it did make me rethink my judgment of their basement strategy.

00:32:13.180 But so I get it.

00:32:14.460 There's enthusiasm behind Trump.

00:32:15.860 They are saying, though, right now that the enthusiasm, if you if you had to look at it, it's actually greater this year on the Democrat side.

00:32:25.240 But Gallup always points out enthusiasm doesn't necessarily predict who is going to win the election.

00:32:31.280 But the Democrats are way more enthusiastic this time than they were last time around.

00:32:35.100 There was it was like 50 percent of Democrats were enthusiastic about Clinton in 16.

00:32:40.280 Seventy five percent are enthusiastic, at least to vote in 2020 on the Dem side.

00:32:45.220 Um, for Republicans, it was actually lower as well.

00:32:49.940 In 2016, it was 53 percent were enthusiastic and 2020 is 60.

00:32:54.500 So they've gone up as well because some GOP years have actually come to like Trump when last time around they were suspicious of him anyway.

00:33:02.160 So we'll see whether enthusiasm translates.

00:33:04.260 But what do you think is going to happen?

00:33:07.060 And I mean, as the as the days go on, as they could, as we wait for possibly Pennsylvania, because you could mail in your vote there and and even evoke it that gets postage postmarked today has to be counted.

00:33:19.360 So they have to sit around and wait.

00:33:20.580 If it's close in Pennsylvania, we're all screwed.

00:33:22.360 What is the likelihood of litigation and of shenanigans when it comes to a state like Pennsylvania?

00:33:29.080 If it's close in a state like Pennsylvania and it has to be recounted or maybe there's a challenge of the validity of certain ballots, I think it's going to get ugly.

00:33:42.500 I truly do.

00:33:43.780 That's why if there's going to be a victory, I hope it's overwhelming.

00:33:47.640 Even if it's a Joe Biden victory, I hope it's decisive.

00:33:50.320 I hope that there's no question about the results and we don't have to wait three weeks or six weeks to find out who won.

00:33:59.620 I still think Donald Trump is going to win.

00:34:01.820 But let me be very honest.

00:34:03.320 If he doesn't, I'm not going to take to the streets and loot some store and go grab television sets and burn cars and throw bricks at police officers over it.

00:34:14.340 I'm going to suck it up and say, hey, you know, this is what an election is.

00:34:18.240 Now, if we find it that there was certain types of shenanigans, even then I'm not going to burn anything down.

00:34:24.980 I'll just say, let's get to the bottom of it, make sure we have the results right.

00:34:29.660 But I really do fear that if Donald Trump wins, whether it's by a landslide or by a small margin, we're going to see the kind of things that we saw in Minneapolis and Seattle and Portland and Kenosha and Atlanta in New York and major cities.

00:34:47.480 And I just I dread that.

00:34:49.780 I think it's a destructive thing to happen, not just to these cities, but to our processes of a peaceful transfer of power, which we're supposed to be able to accept.

00:35:01.500 But let's face it, Megan, the Democrats never accepted the results of the 2016 election and they couldn't accept it.

00:35:08.400 Nor of the 2000.

00:35:09.140 Well, that's true.

00:35:11.240 They but there was at least a clearer picture in 2000 in the Florida votes.

00:35:18.420 A lot of that was because of where I live now in the Florida panhandle, which people counted the votes in East Florida, which is in the eastern time zone.

00:35:25.900 I'm failing to remember that in the panhandle, in the central time zone, those results hadn't come in.

00:35:31.740 The county where I live voted 84 percent Republican, 84 percent.

00:35:37.300 So the panhandle is always where the Florida votes start really swinging to the right.

00:35:42.240 Yeah.

00:35:42.700 You can't call Florida before you have the panhandle votes.

00:35:45.900 And you can't make any predictions because it's such a hugely Republican Western area there.

00:35:50.720 Yeah, no.

00:35:51.560 So I agree.

00:35:52.240 There's a real chance of, well, either president, because, you know, if Trump loses and it's close, he's going to try to delegitimize Biden entirely.

00:35:59.840 He's going to say they stole the election.

00:36:01.900 He's already saying that.

00:36:03.500 So I don't know about riots.

00:36:05.520 You don't see Republicans do a lot of riots and, you know, throwing bricks through windows when they lose.

00:36:10.460 But there will be complaints and delegitimacy accusations.

00:36:15.960 I mean, I don't know.

00:36:17.560 So I hope legal legal challenges don't resolve this election because we all saw how that worked out.

00:36:22.480 But I do think they're likely, especially given all the changes we've had to make in the electoral system, thanks to covid, the number of mail in votes, the the oddities in 22 states.

00:36:31.880 You can postmark your vote as of today and still mail it.

00:36:34.460 So most of them aren't swing states.

00:36:36.500 We don't care.

00:36:37.940 But if things go south in Pennsylvania, it's going to get weird.

00:36:42.260 They say your state, Florida, is pretty good at counting votes and pretty good at counting them early.

00:36:45.880 And so I think the polls close in Florida at 8 p.m., 730 is North Carolina.

00:36:52.520 That's the bellwether where, you know, should be really interesting to see.

00:36:56.040 And Ohio closes at 732.

00:36:58.500 Last time around, we didn't call the election for Trump until I think it was it was to let me see.

00:37:03.080 Check my note.

00:37:04.020 Two thirty nine a.m.

00:37:05.220 Eastern time.

00:37:06.200 That's when we called the vote for Trump.

00:37:08.380 It was tight, but it was clear.

00:37:09.960 Well, it was clear.

00:37:11.880 I mean, on the Electoral College, which despite what Hillary supporters wanted to say, that's how we elect a president.

00:37:18.600 I mean, and I'm glad we do.

00:37:20.380 The founders of the country were brilliant in coming up with the system of an electoral college.

00:37:24.880 Otherwise, only about five states would elect the president.

00:37:28.920 And the rest of America would essentially be stuck with whoever those five states pick.

00:37:35.260 Can I just jump in and tell you something on that?

00:37:37.420 And I'll let you finish your thought.

00:37:38.740 So my kids are in school now.

00:37:40.000 I have a first grader, a fourth grader, fifth grader.

00:37:42.440 My fourth grader is studying the election, the electoral process.

00:37:45.900 And I mean, there isn't a day that that goes by that she doesn't come home and repeat to me what she's being taught in school, which is how unfair the electoral college is and how it should really be the popular vote.

00:37:56.380 And I'm like, oh, honey, let me try to explain to you why your teachers are saying that and what that would actually mean for America.

00:38:05.260 But, you know, what is frightening about that is to take fourth graders and rather than educate them, trying to indoctrinate them on a particular worldview that goes against the very essence of the Constitution and how it was created and designed for a purpose.

00:38:23.340 Now, I think it's fine to have the discussion and even say maybe the founders were wrong.

00:38:28.120 Maybe we should have a popular vote.

00:38:29.800 But you can't have that discussion fairly and accurately if you don't explain what the electoral college was intended to do.

00:38:37.740 The same way that we have a Senate, by the way, the Senate should still be elected by the states.

00:38:44.120 It was 100 years ago that we changed it to a popular vote.

00:38:48.840 It was a huge mistake and we paid the price for having a popularly elected Senate as opposed to a Senate chosen by the state legislatures like we had until the early 1900s.

00:39:01.340 And it really created the massive federal government that we have.

00:39:05.320 As a governor, I saw the results of senators who didn't care about what was happening in their states.

00:39:11.080 That's that's very frustrating.

00:39:12.280 Mm hmm. So speaking of the Senate, and I'll ask you, President, as well, I know you think Trump's going to win, but I'm curious about whether you have an electoral college prediction in terms of the numbers.

00:39:22.060 But what do you think is going to happen in the Senate?

00:39:24.020 Because, I mean, there is a scenario, obviously, in which the Democrats win it all and we have one party rule at every branch of government.

00:39:30.220 But there's another scenario in which some of these disaffected Republicans who just don't like Trump, they can't get back on board with him.

00:39:36.180 Some of these women and so on say, I don't I don't like him.

00:39:40.660 I'm not going to put him back in there, but I'm not giving over the Senate to the Democrats as well.

00:39:45.740 There should be one branch of government that is still, you know, makes us divided.

00:39:49.580 So what do you think the odds are that the Republicans lose the Senate?

00:39:52.780 I think Republicans keep the Senate. We've got several key states that are up for grabs.

00:39:59.700 We may lose Colorado with Cory Gardner. I don't have a good feel for that.

00:40:03.540 But I think Joni Ernst will win in Iowa.

00:40:07.640 I think Lindsey Graham holds on in South Carolina despite a hundred million dollars poured in against him.

00:40:14.380 And I want to believe that Martha McSally, who is a wonderful senator, a strong woman.

00:40:21.240 I don't know why anyone would not want to keep her if they knew her story, if they'd read her book and recognized all the obstacles she's overcome to shatter glass ceilings.

00:40:32.040 She was, in her case, with an A-10 Warthog combat fighter, the first female combat fighter pilot in America.

00:40:39.460 And boy, did she have to go through some tough experiences to break those barriers.

00:40:45.500 They'd want her there. And it's interesting that Mark Kelly, her opponent, is an astronaut.

00:40:50.180 This is Arizona, by the way.

00:40:51.540 Right, Arizona. But a group of fellow astronauts came out and endorsed Martha McSally instead of their own colleague, Mark Kelly.

00:41:00.060 That was very revealing.

00:41:01.660 You know, the thing about Martha McSally is she's not a great retail politician.

00:41:05.840 You know, she's a fighter pilot. I don't know that they're the best at glad handing, you know.

00:41:10.060 And Mark Kelly, Mark Kelly is he's pretty charming.

00:41:13.620 I had him on my show at NBC and he talked about becoming an astronaut and how he was a D student and really didn't think he had any business being selected for this role.

00:41:20.820 Very self-deprecating, pretty charming.

00:41:23.680 You know, I think that he's got some sort of he's got a better retail sales case than she does.

00:41:29.080 But Arizona would then have two Democratic senators, which is, you know, this is a state that has a lot of red in it.

00:41:36.040 You know, it will be surprising if they have two Dems, but he is favored.

00:41:40.300 By the way, don't you think Cory Gardner's got a good political future ahead of him, even though it does look like he's going to lose this race?

00:41:46.340 Yeah, he's a very smart guy.

00:41:48.900 He's got a great attitude.

00:41:50.340 He's not a bomb thrower.

00:41:52.280 You know, he's a thoughtful legislator, which is something we need a lot more of.

00:41:57.180 He's in the mold of a Mike Rounds that never gets a lot of attention, but is a very effective go to legislator.

00:42:03.940 You know, there's some people that just don't like to do TV wall to wall.

00:42:06.640 So they may not be as famous or as notorious, but they're effective and they know how to build coalitions with people from the other side toward issues that need to be resolved and frankly can be resolved when people.

00:42:20.380 Well, but as you know, you don't always get resolved or rewarded for that.

00:42:22.960 I mean, look at Susan Collins.

00:42:24.200 She's you get the most moderate.

00:42:26.340 Right.

00:42:26.480 She's the most moderate Republican in the in the Senate.

00:42:28.300 And now they're like, screw you, you're out of here.

00:42:30.820 You voted for Kavanaugh.

00:42:32.540 And, you know, I don't know.

00:42:34.500 She's probably she's pretty vulnerable.

00:42:35.840 But what's your prediction on her?

00:42:37.980 I think she has a really good shot of losing.

00:42:40.220 And here's part of the problem.

00:42:42.180 A really good shot of losing.

00:42:43.700 Yeah.

00:42:43.940 I mean, well, here's the reason, though.

00:42:45.740 She voted for Kavanaugh, which, you know, kind of gave her some grace with Republicans, but made the Democrats angry.

00:42:52.100 But then she didn't vote for Amy Coney Barrett.

00:42:55.140 Yeah.

00:42:55.540 And that kind of chilled the Republicans.

00:42:57.260 And they said, well, heck, if she's not even going to vote when we have somebody as qualified as Amy Coney Barrett, what the heck?

00:43:03.960 Might as well have a Democrat.

00:43:04.800 Same vote.

00:43:05.720 It was like pick a lane, pick a lane, Senator.

00:43:07.800 I mean, she could have easily on Coney Barrett come around and said, you know what?

00:43:10.820 I listened to her.

00:43:11.740 I'm convinced that the process, while not perfect, gave us a qualified nominee.

00:43:15.820 And I don't want to deny that woman my vote now having listened to her.

00:43:18.680 There was a way politicians can weasel out of anything if they want to.

00:43:21.620 Can I just ask you?

00:43:22.340 I got to let you go.

00:43:23.060 But I want to ask you about this.

00:43:24.240 Speaking of the deplorables and the messaging being even worse now on Trump voters, Maxine Waters, she never disappoints in her nasty rhetoric.

00:43:34.440 Democrat from California.

00:43:35.940 She's just come out promising to never, ever forgive black Trump voters, saying they will go down in history as having done the most despicable thing ever to their communities, to their mothers, to their grandmothers.

00:43:54.600 They're crazy, she said.

00:43:56.360 These are crazy people.

00:43:58.060 Trump's a racist and he won't help them.

00:44:00.860 He won't, quote, do anything for us.

00:44:02.940 That's how she put it.

00:44:04.440 I think, like, to me, if one remark could embody why people don't really want to telegraph their vote, she's shaming the black Trump voters.

00:44:13.700 Imagine how the white Trump voters feel.

00:44:15.660 That comment was so beyond the pale, in part because you may not like Donald Trump or his personality, and a lot of people don't.

00:44:26.820 But if you look at what Donald Trump did with the First Step Act, and I was a part of that.

00:44:30.540 I worked on that with people from the White House.

00:44:33.500 And by the way, there were people on the far left, people like Van Jones, who was very intimately involved in helping bring this about.

00:44:39.600 This is criminal justice reform.

00:44:40.760 That's exactly right.

00:44:42.320 And it was historic.

00:44:43.860 It was absolutely historic.

00:44:45.560 So many people were put in prison.

00:44:47.540 As my prison director used to say in Arkansas, we're locking up a lot of people because we're mad at them rather than because we're afraid of them.

00:44:54.700 And we need to lock people up that we're afraid of.

00:44:57.500 But we've locked up people for nonviolent offenses because they didn't have a good lawyer.

00:45:03.800 And if they'd been an upper middle class white kid, they would have had a plea agreement.

00:45:07.920 They would have gone to Harvard Law School and made a couple of million bucks a year.

00:45:12.660 But because they were poor and they were black and they lived in the projects, they had a public defender who didn't have time to do much more than do a plea bargain.

00:45:19.440 So they pled, they have a felony, and now they can't get a job changing a bedpan in the nursing home.

00:45:26.960 And I'm not saying that facetiously because we passed all these three strikes or outlaws, and then we passed laws that said if you didn't pass a background check, you couldn't be a janitor in a school and you couldn't work in a nursing home.

00:45:39.800 So they literally could not change the bedpan of the nursing home or sweep the floor of the school because they had a felony conviction that was really nothing to do with safety of the public.

00:45:53.600 And it was a horrible public policy.

00:45:56.380 Joe Biden voted for it in 1994 in the crime bill that was a disaster, and it was Donald Trump who fixed it.

00:46:01.960 And if that alone isn't enough to cause African-American voters to say, you know, maybe this guy is not so bad for us, and the unemployment numbers for African-Americans prior to COVID was the lowest in history.

00:46:15.980 Same with Hispanics and women.

00:46:17.720 You can't argue with those numbers.

00:46:19.640 Those are facts, and they may not be comfortable for people like Maxine Waters, who lives, by the way, in a very nice home behind a gate in a gated community.

00:46:30.180 And a lot of her constituents, they don't live like that.

00:46:34.440 And I don't begrudge her.

00:46:36.080 I just begrudge the fact that she thinks that she has a right to tell people who would like to move up the ladder that they can't do it if the person helping them up that ladder is Donald Trump.

00:46:47.960 No, it's like the same as LeBron James.

00:46:50.080 I mean, I saw an article, I think it was in People magazine last week, showing the dollhouse, like the playhouse that LeBron James had built for his child.

00:46:59.080 And it's nicer than most people's actual home.

00:47:03.160 I mean, it looks like a Kardashian built it.

00:47:05.680 And this is a guy who's out there calling to defund the police.

00:47:09.040 He wants to take the money away so that the inner city black people cannot get protected by the cops.

00:47:15.300 But LeBron's not going to have any problem.

00:47:17.300 Trust me, his kid lives in a fortress when it goes to play with the when the kids go to play with the dollies.

00:47:21.420 But like if you're in the inner city, you don't get protected because LeBron James wants to make a point about cops.

00:47:27.760 It's absurd, the hypocrisy and the unwillingness to acknowledge reality and what life is really like.

00:47:33.140 I mean, I think about how hard black voters have it who might lean conservative.

00:47:38.320 Good God.

00:47:38.880 I mean, I think about somebody like Jason Reilly, the Wall Street Journal, who's so reasonable in his approach and to be lectured to.

00:47:45.540 The guy grew up in Buffalo.

00:47:46.680 He thought for himself.

00:47:47.660 He got himself a great education.

00:47:49.680 He writes for the Wall Street Journal.

00:47:50.840 He's an author.

00:47:51.320 Now he's got to be lectured to by Maxine Waters about what a despicable person he is if he happens to pull the lever for Trump.

00:47:59.660 And just my own belief is that is why on a day like this, we need to keep an open mind as to how this vote comes out.

00:48:06.640 Because when when people go into that voting booth, it's between them and their God what they do.

00:48:11.600 And they don't answer to Maxine Waters.

00:48:14.640 And thank God they don't.

00:48:15.840 You know, and another person comes to mind is Charles Payne, who's on Fox Business.

00:48:19.820 And he grew up in the projects of Harlem and didn't have a dad and grew up so poor.

00:48:26.660 And yet he he wanted to be something.

00:48:29.160 He wanted to do something with his life.

00:48:30.760 And at 13, he started carrying a briefcase and dressing up in a suit so he could look like he was going to be somebody.

00:48:38.380 And, you know, I just love stories like that because it means that they overcame all of the things that were surrounding them.

00:48:45.780 And they shouldn't be punished because they want to think for themselves.

00:48:49.820 Yeah.

00:48:50.980 OK, final prediction.

00:48:52.680 Got an electoral college number you want to throw out there?

00:48:56.420 I say Donald Trump with three hundred and sixteen electoral votes.

00:49:02.120 Wow.

00:49:02.460 You think he's going up from last time, which was three.

00:49:04.480 I do.

00:49:05.220 Yes, I do.

00:49:06.520 You heard it here, folks.

00:49:08.260 Governor Mike Huckabee.

00:49:09.580 So good to reconnect.

00:49:10.600 Thank you for being here.

00:49:11.580 Let's do it again.

00:49:12.700 I look forward to it, Megan.

00:49:13.900 Thank you.

00:49:14.340 Great to reconnect.

00:49:15.300 All the best.

00:49:15.840 In just a minute, we're going to be joined by Joe Trippi.

00:49:21.520 He's a pal of mine from Fox News and actually has his own podcast now, too.

00:49:25.720 But this is a guy who knows what he's doing in Democratic politics.

00:49:28.660 He's worked on the Ted Kennedy campaign, Walter Mondale, Dick Gebhardt, Howard Dean.

00:49:34.180 And we've known each other for a super long time.

00:49:36.240 Very trusted guy.

00:49:36.960 He's going to give you sort of the other perspective on today and likely outcomes.

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00:51:05.180 Okay.

00:51:05.560 Now I want to bring in Joe Trippy.

00:51:07.660 Joe, so good to have you here.

00:51:09.280 Thanks for coming on.

00:51:10.520 Oh, no.

00:51:10.800 It's great to be with you, Megan.

00:51:12.620 All right.

00:51:13.000 So Joe's got his own podcast now called The Trippy Show.

00:51:16.440 And I like that.

00:51:17.500 You had so many possibilities with your last name, like tripped out.

00:51:21.100 Yeah.

00:51:21.420 You know, I don't know.

00:51:22.160 Tripping.

00:51:24.140 Since high school.

00:51:25.200 Yeah.

00:51:25.480 Since high school.

00:51:26.320 Yeah.

00:51:26.680 I've been hit with all those.

00:51:28.520 I decided to play with that.

00:51:29.760 But yeah.

00:51:30.440 I like it.

00:51:31.060 I like it.

00:51:31.920 All right.

00:51:32.400 So let's start with the big with the big headline.

00:51:34.100 Everybody wants to know who's going to win tonight and what's the electoral college number

00:51:37.320 going to be?

00:51:38.780 Well, I think Joe Biden's going to win.

00:51:40.700 I think it'll be pretty.

00:51:43.120 It'll be big.

00:51:43.880 It's going to be, I think, could reach high 300s.

00:51:47.680 You know, 368 electoral votes are even higher.

00:51:51.980 Wow.

00:51:53.800 So that's big.

00:51:54.660 That's seriously big.

00:51:55.420 Why?

00:51:55.800 Because, you know, we've been talking on the show.

00:51:57.740 Obviously, all the polls say he's going to win.

00:51:59.720 Biden's going to win.

00:52:00.860 But, you know, we do talk about the shy Trump voter, and I believe that's a real thing.

00:52:04.420 I don't know how big it is.

00:52:05.620 That's that's my one caveat to the Trump supporters.

00:52:07.800 I don't know how big it is.

00:52:09.600 Well, look, I think all of us, you know, have been looking at this through the long the

00:52:15.180 wrong lens.

00:52:15.820 I think everybody has been looking at this, like, you know, through through the lens of

00:52:20.480 2016.

00:52:22.480 And I don't this isn't 2016.

00:52:25.780 And, you know, I've been involved in nine different presidential campaigns going back

00:52:30.680 to 1979 when I was like 20, 25, 26 years old.

00:52:37.700 And and it left a big wound, a scar that year because we had done that.

00:52:45.820 Double digit inflation, double digit unemployment.

00:52:48.320 The Iran hostage crisis was going every night.

00:52:53.380 TV, all the TV channels were were in Ted Koppel on Nightline was talking about day 341 and they

00:53:01.180 were counting the days.

00:53:02.320 Every every network had numbers up on the screen about how many days it was.

00:53:07.420 And Jimmy Carter's, you know, failed presidency was in a tatters.

00:53:15.040 Reagan was very close to Carter.

00:53:17.300 And then at the end, all the undecideds broke away from Carter, broke to Reagan.

00:53:22.640 And on election night in 2000, excuse me, in 1980, 12 Democratic senators lost their Senate

00:53:29.920 seats.

00:53:30.300 So I, I, I have enough.

00:53:33.380 Yeah.

00:53:33.720 Well, I've been around long enough to remember that and actually have enough long term memory

00:53:39.620 to know where I saw it.

00:53:41.540 And so I think Reagan, Reagan, for the record, got 489 electoral votes over the course of the

00:53:48.520 two.

00:53:48.960 Right.

00:53:49.340 That's insane.

00:53:50.840 And he only got 51 percent of the vote.

00:53:52.700 So when you see Biden at, you know, 51, 50, 52, depending on what the, you know, national

00:54:00.160 polls are showing, uh, and you see the, uh, uh, again, what's happening in the country right

00:54:07.060 now, uh, the wrong track and all those kinds of things.

00:54:10.760 No, but wrong track, but are you better off than you were four years ago is better for Trump.

00:54:14.980 That's what confuses a lot of us is like, well, people are saying they're better off.

00:54:19.120 56% are saying they're better off than they were four years ago.

00:54:22.700 And we're very shocked and scared by like the, not being able to trust the pollsters.

00:54:28.260 It's like a scary thing when you, you can't trust anybody, you know, that's why everybody

00:54:31.620 on both sides is so on pins and needles.

00:54:34.300 So why do you, why are you so confident?

00:54:36.760 I know you say 2020 is not 2016, but like specifically why, what, what do you mean?

00:54:42.360 Uh, well, I mean, let me give you one.

00:54:44.040 We track every night in Alabama, uh, for, I mean, every single night except Saturdays and

00:54:49.780 Fridays and Saturdays.

00:54:51.020 Uh, when we won that race in 2017, um, Donald Trump's favorable was 68%.

00:55:00.360 Um, we track every, like I said, for a long time, every day or just about every day, um,

00:55:09.000 on Thursday night, uh, Trump's favorable was 53% in Alabama.

00:55:15.100 And by the way, it wasn't like some cataclysm.

00:55:17.460 It happened off a cliff.

00:55:18.940 No, this is like from 2017 to the day each month, you know, 63, 59, you know, 57.

00:55:28.020 And it's been just going down and he's, he's losing, um, uh, and we all know, you've seen

00:55:34.280 it talked about, you know, uh, suburban Republican women, uh, younger Republicans, um, uh, some

00:55:41.700 business Republicans, but, uh, holding on to, to, to a lot of his core support.

00:55:46.460 And the last one, um, that we started to see with, with COVID were a number of seniors,

00:55:52.340 um, that started to, to move away from, from him as well.

00:55:56.800 Now I'm not, he's not, he's going to blow out Biden in Alabama.

00:56:01.120 I'm not, that's not what I'm saying here.

00:56:03.420 I'm just saying that, um, if, if he's declined that much in Alabama, uh, you know, he beat

00:56:10.280 Hillary, uh, uh, by 28 points and he got 63% of the votes.

00:56:14.800 She got 35, uh, let's say he beats Biden by 15 in Alabama.

00:56:19.680 Uh, so, so he cuts the, the, his margin in Alabama is cut in half yet big win, uh, give

00:56:27.920 him that, not saying that then you got to start asking yourself.

00:56:31.120 In places where he won by 11,000 votes, what's going on, um, you know, in 44,000 in

00:56:37.080 Pennsylvania.

00:56:37.460 And then you see these polls that we're looking at and that's what I'm saying.

00:56:41.540 So it's kind of real life experience in a place I've been working hard in for three

00:56:46.700 and a half, four years, uh, he has no cushion.

00:56:49.840 He doesn't have, he doesn't have the cushion to lose that kind of percentage point lead.

00:56:54.120 Yeah.

00:56:54.640 Not, I mean, he has that huge cushion in Alabama.

00:56:57.000 He doesn't have it in, in a lot of Pennsylvania or Wisconsin or Michigan.

00:57:01.120 Yeah, exactly.

00:57:02.400 That's where my confidence comes from.

00:57:04.860 So by the way, I look back and it's a Reagan one, 489 electoral votes, Carter 49.

00:57:10.300 That's crazy.

00:57:11.160 Think about that.

00:57:11.800 408 as a bloodbath.

00:57:13.560 So it won't be that bad, but it'll be, it'll be, it could easily be 350, 368, something like

00:57:19.480 that.

00:57:20.100 So can I ask you in a nutshell, cause there's so many things at the top of the show, I

00:57:24.060 sort of went through why Trump voters have reason to support him because I'm so tired of

00:57:29.480 people dismissing all of his supporters as bigoted and awful and stupid and racist and

00:57:33.740 xenophobic, all of it.

00:57:34.680 Right.

00:57:35.000 There are very good reasons to support Donald Trump if you're a Republican or even, you

00:57:39.080 know, center that have nothing to do with all that stuff.

00:57:41.820 But can you just say like, why is he losing so much support?

00:57:45.740 Why have obviously Democrats never liked him, but why, why is he losing these core groups

00:57:52.300 of people who did vote for him last time?

00:57:55.040 I think it's his personality.

00:57:57.040 I, I, I, I'm not, I, I don't think his, you know, on the policy positions that, uh, he's

00:58:03.000 lost a lot of ground.

00:58:04.200 I don't think that, that at all.

00:58:05.460 I think, uh, there are quite a few people who, who like his policies, but have just tired

00:58:11.080 of the chaos, uh, in his sort of recklessness at times, his language and things like that,

00:58:19.080 Twitter, those kinds of things.

00:58:20.660 And what we, what, what you see, um, a lot of presidents get here, by the way, uh, usually

00:58:28.460 takes eight, all eight years, but towards the end, you know, everybody's sort of tiring

00:58:33.460 a W or they're tiring of Obama.

00:58:36.040 Even, I mean, there are a lot of Democrats that were starting to get tired of Obama after

00:58:39.580 eight years.

00:58:40.120 Had he really done enough?

00:58:41.320 What did he do, you know, to help progressives, whatever, you know, the, the, the naysayers

00:58:46.100 were starting to come out, um, most presidents, it takes two full terms to get there.

00:58:51.640 And I think part of what's happened here is that Trump got there in three and a half years,

00:58:56.160 uh, so much so that's, that even some of his own people, his own supporters are starting

00:59:01.660 to get tired of the act.

00:59:03.180 I mean, one of the problems of being sort of, uh, the reality TV show president is at

00:59:09.460 what point do people decide they want to, they want to change the channel?

00:59:12.620 Not because, I mean, just because they've seen it, the act over and over and over again.

00:59:17.780 Well, it's interesting, Joe.

00:59:18.340 I remember hearing, um, somebody talk about narcissists and look, there's no question.

00:59:23.280 Trump is one.

00:59:24.200 I think you have to be a little bit of one to, to want to be president.

00:59:27.280 I do.

00:59:27.940 I just kind of do, but there's like, there's regular narcissist and then there's sort of Trump

00:59:32.800 level.

00:59:33.800 Um, and I do think they, there have been studies looking into how long the average person who's

00:59:39.160 with a narcissist can stand it.

00:59:41.820 Like after time, it, it gets too grading, too dejecting, too tiring to, to allow it to

00:59:49.520 go on.

00:59:49.900 And if I'm not mistaken, I remember somebody telling me it was on average, like two years.

00:59:53.840 Yeah.

00:59:54.200 Uh, so I don't know.

00:59:55.240 I mean, I, with his campaign, it's been going on a lot longer than that.

00:59:58.360 Yeah.

00:59:58.520 But that's what I think is going on.

00:59:59.720 And we, I, I was, we were seeing in focus groups, uh, Republican women who, who literally

01:00:05.820 say things like, I, I, I just want to stop the chaos.

01:00:09.360 I feel like I'm hanging by my fingernails from the edge of a cliff.

01:00:13.400 Uh, I just want, I, they just want to change the channel.

01:00:16.820 And I think that's him.

01:00:18.420 I mean, he, he's done that, uh, to himself, regardless of his, if he had the discipline,

01:00:24.320 I think to, to run on his policies and stay on them.

01:00:27.800 Um, I think he would be doing better.

01:00:31.000 Unfortunately, um, I don't think he, I don't think he has that in him.

01:00:35.580 It's just not, he's not going to change.

01:00:38.080 So as, as tonight gets started, what's the first you're going to think you're going to

01:00:41.700 be looking for?

01:00:42.540 And what's the earliest you think we'll know anything real?

01:00:46.440 Uh, I think we're going to know pretty early, uh, what kind of night it's going to be.

01:00:50.640 The first place I'd look is Sumter County in Florida.

01:00:53.620 Look for the early returns there.

01:00:55.880 Uh, it's a huge, strong, strong, strong, strong, strong, strong, strong, strong, strong,

01:00:57.800 stronghold of Trump's, uh, it's where the villages are in the state.

01:01:02.660 56% of, uh, uh, voters, uh, are over the age of 65.

01:01:08.700 Uh, obviously a, a, a, a vast majority, uh, uh, white voters.

01:01:14.760 I mean, it's the Trump, uh, older voter, uh, uh, place to get a quick look when those early

01:01:21.560 returns start coming in there.

01:01:23.080 Um, if Biden has closed the gap, uh, that, that Trump had over Hillary in that, in Sumter

01:01:31.360 County, that should tell you.

01:01:33.720 So first of all, it, it means that the erosion that the polls are talking about with older

01:01:38.360 voters is actually happening.

01:01:39.900 Uh, and if that's happening in that County in Florida, I don't think, um, I think it signals

01:01:45.920 that Trump's in trouble.

01:01:47.580 If Trump's, uh, holding that margin there, uh, then I think we could be in for a long

01:01:53.560 night in Florida, obviously.

01:01:55.640 Uh, and there, uh, are other places around the country I'd start to look.

01:02:00.920 Uh, but I think, look, Florida counts very, very fast.

01:02:04.000 They closed the polls at seven o'clock.

01:02:05.580 Last time, if I remember right, they were, they had the vast majority of their precincts

01:02:11.280 all counted by eight 30.

01:02:12.780 It's very quick.

01:02:13.680 So Florida, we're going to know if, and if Trump loses Florida, uh, you know, that's

01:02:19.360 what I'm saying.

01:02:19.760 We, we could at nine o'clock tonight, no, he's done.

01:02:22.360 Um, so I'd look there first, uh, North Carolina closes at, at, uh, seven 30.

01:02:29.340 They, they're, they count quickly as well, but the place I would look, uh, early to is

01:02:35.380 Lackawanna County in Pennsylvania.

01:02:37.760 And I'll tell you why that's Scranton, uh, Obama, Biden, uh, beat Romney there by 25,000

01:02:45.360 votes.

01:02:45.940 Hillary only beat Trump in Scranton in, in Lackawanna County by 3000 votes.

01:02:52.340 So the question is, and by the way, Biden's there right now, as we talk, uh, he's in Scranton

01:02:58.400 this morning and the question is that's half of what she lost, uh, Pennsylvania by it was

01:03:06.040 23,000 votes.

01:03:07.740 She lost by about 44, 46,000.

01:03:10.960 So half of it's in that County and it's where, where Biden was, was born and raised, right.

01:03:19.380 And so exactly.

01:03:20.520 So does, does he, does he pull away like the Biden, um, Obama, Biden, uh, ticket did in

01:03:27.920 against Romney in, in 2012?

01:03:30.000 If he does, he's already closed half, you know, half of what, uh, Hillary lost Pennsylvania

01:03:36.700 by before you even get to whether the turnout's higher in Philly or, you know, you know, any

01:03:40.880 of these other places.

01:03:42.260 Um, and he's got an obviously better shot in Scranton, although those are voters who would

01:03:46.980 be traditionally more working class Democrats.

01:03:49.080 Right.

01:03:49.560 And that's why they went for Trump, but Biden can play with them.

01:03:53.080 He can, right.

01:03:53.640 He can play with them.

01:03:54.880 Exactly.

01:03:55.320 And does that happen there?

01:03:56.820 That's where I'd look for that first.

01:03:58.720 Uh, and then like, I don't really think we have to wait, uh, for a lot of the polls to

01:04:04.320 call, I mean, you know, for let's wait and see, you know, as they're counting votes in

01:04:09.160 Wisconsin and, in Michigan and Ohio, what's, you know, uh, wait for anything to come in.

01:04:17.240 What I would look at there is you don't need me pick a County in the Midwest, two or three

01:04:22.960 counties in the Midwest that have, uh, that are majority, just white voters.

01:04:28.740 And, um, and then look at what the margin was against Hillary with Trump and what the

01:04:35.500 margin is against Biden.

01:04:36.840 If Biden is closing that, that margin, um, I think it means that all those Midwestern states

01:04:44.240 are in the blue wall is going to hold.

01:04:46.240 If Trump is, is growing his margin, that means this is your secret.

01:04:51.160 This is your, your shy Trump voter.

01:04:53.800 That would mean that, that he, that more people are coming out, uh, for Trump than did in the

01:05:00.980 past.

01:05:01.440 And that's why he's growing his margin in those counties.

01:05:04.200 So I would look at counties like Armstrong County, uh, in Pennsylvania, um, 96, 98% white.

01:05:12.080 It's a, uh, a rural, uh, my, I, I happen, my mom's side of the family comes from, uh, Armstrong

01:05:18.500 County.

01:05:19.100 And, uh, it's, it, you know, I remember growing up every summer watching the big coal trucks

01:05:23.740 roll by, uh, if, if, if they're going to be shy or, or, or a surge of, of Trump voters

01:05:32.080 that weren't there and that should grow or does Biden, is he doing better with those

01:05:39.160 kinds of voters?

01:05:40.260 So he'll, can I ask you a question about that?

01:05:41.840 Can I ask you a question about that?

01:05:43.420 Because I frankly don't know the answer to this, but wouldn't the shy Trump voter not

01:05:50.120 be in the rural white County?

01:05:52.240 Wouldn't the shy Trump voter be more of a suburban housewife?

01:05:55.900 Like, sure.

01:05:56.820 I don't know if this, if the rural white people are getting shamed the way the suburban Republican

01:06:01.880 women are.

01:06:03.100 No, no, that's, that's true.

01:06:04.500 And to get a sense of that, I'd go to Montgomery County, Pennsylvania.

01:06:09.020 Uh, uh, it's a suburb of Philadelphia.

01:06:12.260 Uh, it's the third largest, uh, populated County in the state of Pennsylvania.

01:06:17.720 Uh, it's a, uh, uh, a bunch of commuter kind of the people who, who commute, uh, to Philly

01:06:26.540 or, or to, uh, uh, uh, uh, Delaware, Wilmington.

01:06:31.040 Um, it's down in the Southern part of the state below, uh, Philly, but it's, it is by

01:06:36.020 far the, the, uh, you know, a swing there, there would be a lot of those kinds of voters.

01:06:42.680 There are a lot of, uh, GOP suburban women.

01:06:45.340 Could we know that early with, with the Pennsylvania's weird vote in, I mean, mail-in stuff?

01:06:49.440 I can't believe, like it's, it does seem a little odd that there take, you can postmark

01:06:52.380 your vote on election day.

01:06:53.780 It's kind of a, it's really just an irritation for me because I want the answers.

01:06:57.200 Um, but do you think we'll know what's happening in Montgomery County or Armstrong County, given

01:07:02.620 how many mail-in ballots we're going to be waiting on?

01:07:05.780 Well, I think, uh, in places in a lot of the places I'm talking about, like, uh, uh, Ross

01:07:12.080 County, uh, Ohio, uh, Armstrong, I don't think it matters when their votes came in.

01:07:18.020 In other words, whether they voted early, whether they mailed them in, it, it, it, you're

01:07:21.840 either going to see a, but we're waiting on some of them, but I'm saying we're, a lot

01:07:26.520 of in Pennsylvania, we won't yet have.

01:07:28.460 So I just don't know.

01:07:29.800 I don't like, yeah, what I'm saying is an Armstrong where, where Trump was getting

01:07:34.920 like, you know, 69% of the vote.

01:07:37.200 Uh, if the first batches are 69 and the next batch is 60, I don't think.

01:07:41.980 Anything's going to change there, right?

01:07:43.540 It, it, it's too monolithic, uh, a county, same with Ross County, um, you know, Stark

01:07:48.980 County, uh, Ohio has been a bellwether, uh, within a half point, uh, every year, uh, as

01:07:58.100 far back as I can remember, uh, it may get who won wrong.

01:08:01.580 I mean, in other words, it could be a half point, you know, uh, for, for, uh, uh, for,

01:08:06.580 for Biden and Trump actually wins the state, uh, closely, but I'm saying that some of these

01:08:12.100 like Montgomery County, it's the margin difference.

01:08:15.660 It's not, um, uh, you know, I get it.

01:08:19.080 I get it.

01:08:19.460 How much better, how much better is Joe Biden doing over Trump than Hillary was or, or vice

01:08:25.160 versa?

01:08:25.740 Okay.

01:08:26.160 Just back to Florida for one second.

01:08:28.080 Since it does come out early and we should have actual answers.

01:08:30.900 God bless Florida for giving us real answers early.

01:08:33.140 Um, what, if what you see is that Donald Trump is winning it strongly, easily?

01:08:40.500 Oh, no, look, if, if, if, if Trump is winning, uh, Florida easily, one, it means that a lot

01:08:47.720 of what the pollsters are, or think they're seeing with seniors can't possibly be right.

01:08:53.440 I mean, you know, depending on, on, on where we're seeing that against Sumter County would

01:08:57.280 tell us something about that.

01:08:58.480 Um, but, but so it, it means, look, that's that, uh, path for Biden's closed.

01:09:06.460 It makes Pennsylvania massively important at that point.

01:09:10.800 Um, because if, if, if Biden wins either one of those States, it's, it's over for, for the

01:09:18.100 Trump campaign.

01:09:18.900 Uh, if, but having headed Biden off at the pass in Florida quickly and strongly, if that

01:09:28.500 were to happen, uh, that's not a good indicator of, uh, for Biden of where maybe North Carolina

01:09:34.620 or Georgia, uh, would be going.

01:09:37.400 Um, so you've got to go back and look, start immediately.

01:09:40.740 If you're a Democrat start freaking out about the blue wall and, uh, and, uh, and having

01:09:46.980 the, uh, the, the, the, you know, the thing I say about Democrats is the entire parties haunted

01:09:51.880 by the ghost of 2016, by the ghost of election past.

01:09:55.220 And, uh, uh, so that would immediately trigger, uh, trigger, uh, I think a lot of anxiety and

01:10:02.480 a lot of drinking, a lot of, a lot of value.

01:10:04.780 Um, yeah, and for Trump supporters, they should take that as a, a, a big, strong shot in the

01:10:11.040 arm, uh, that Trump is in it.

01:10:13.560 So I like that a lot because, you know, we may be sitting here for days trying to figure

01:10:17.620 out who won this election, but there's also the possibility that we'll get a very strong

01:10:22.260 indicator very early in the evening about how this is actually going to shake out.

01:10:27.220 So that, all right, that's good.

01:10:28.560 Before I let you go, the Senate, any chance that Republicans hold onto it in your view?

01:10:34.780 No, none.

01:10:36.620 Uh, I just think, yeah, there's no way that's going to happen.

01:10:40.140 I think, uh, Arizona, Colorado, uh, Maine, even North Carolina, even if Trump wins Florida,

01:10:47.920 I think those four are probably, I would be shocked if Republicans hold onto them.

01:10:54.680 Same again.

01:10:55.560 Can you say, can you list the States again?

01:10:57.120 North Carolina, Arizona, what else?

01:10:59.280 Uh, Colorado and Maine.

01:11:01.160 Oh, okay.

01:11:02.500 Yeah.

01:11:02.760 And then, and then I think if I'm right about it being 1980, um, I would tell you that you're

01:11:10.100 going to see two, three, four other seats that know that people don't really think are possible.

01:11:16.660 Maybe Kansas, uh, uh, even Mike Espy in Mississippi could, could shock, uh, Cindy Hyde-Smith, uh, you

01:11:25.640 know, in, in Alabama on Thursday night, um, uh, we, we, like I told you, we, we track a lot and

01:11:33.980 we track our track on Thursday night had us one up one point and it's, it it's up one point.

01:11:40.360 And, you know, uh, uh, that doesn't mean that, uh, uh, that we, you know, that we're there,

01:11:46.460 obviously we're getting out our vote today and all those kinds of things.

01:11:50.120 But I'm saying if, if this is sort of a, a, a, a, a mini wave, uh, where the undecided,

01:11:58.960 that's what happened in 2000, in 1980 was the undecideds at the, in the last days moved

01:12:05.040 away from the incumbent president.

01:12:06.560 So if we're seeing that, if that's starting to happen, what I, what I expect to happen

01:12:11.900 is not Florida signals a strong Trump win.

01:12:15.140 I think it would be that Biden is winning Florida and it's called like, you know, nine,

01:12:21.540 nine 30.

01:12:22.280 And if you see that, then I start looking for the wave to happen, which might be Tillis

01:12:27.540 goes down in North Carolina, Purdue starts to have real problems in Georgia.

01:12:32.120 You start to see a guy like Doug Jones, who was only up by 1.46 to 45 on Thursday night.

01:12:41.020 We haven't tracked since we're just, we turned it off and we started putting all our time

01:12:44.760 into getting it out.

01:12:45.660 But that that's how, that's how we, you know, that's how this starts to happen where you,

01:12:51.780 you know, in 1980, 12 Democrats lost their Senate seats.

01:12:55.400 They were giants, by the way, it was like, uh, uh, Birch by, uh, George McGovern, um,

01:13:02.120 I think Frank church lost that year, if I remember right, but big, big, uh, giants in

01:13:07.660 the Senate.

01:13:08.060 And I think if this is 1980 redo, you know, redone, um, that I think, uh, we could be sitting

01:13:17.120 here to, you know, tomorrow and looking at five, six, uh, new, uh, new Democrats in the

01:13:24.900 Senate or, or held, uh, Doug Jones and, and picked up four or five seats.

01:13:30.000 If it happens, Joe Trippi, I'm going to be giving you credit right here.

01:13:34.000 This same time tomorrow.

01:13:35.660 Thank you so much for your straightforward analysis.

01:13:38.280 Always appreciate you calling it.

01:13:39.600 Like you see it.

01:13:40.780 No, Megan, thanks for having me.

01:13:42.680 It's, uh, it's really good to be on with you again.

01:13:45.340 Oh, we'll do it again.

01:13:46.300 I look forward to it.

01:13:48.020 Joe Trippi is a great guy.

01:13:49.300 Everybody listen, now you've heard it from both, you know, you've heard, you've heard

01:13:53.520 so many different predictions, right?

01:13:54.700 You're just like everybody else.

01:13:55.660 You don't know what's going to happen, but you've got like the Trafalgar guys saying Trump's

01:13:58.680 going to win it.

01:13:59.500 Mike Huckabee saying he's going to win.

01:14:00.760 It's going to go up in his electoral vote.

01:14:02.840 Trippi who's, you know, he kind of does this for a living actually assesses how the races

01:14:06.620 are going to go.

01:14:07.760 Um, and so does Trafalgar is saying it's completely the opposite.

01:14:11.040 So hopefully we won't have too long to wait.

01:14:13.740 Uh, listen, we asked you yesterday to write into the show with some questions that you might

01:14:17.800 have about, about the election.

01:14:20.040 And this is a feature we offer on the program called asked and answered.

01:14:23.740 And Steve Krakauer is my executive producer here on the MK show.

01:14:27.600 And he has got some of your questions and hopefully Steve, you and I have some of the

01:14:31.240 answers.

01:14:31.880 We'll try.

01:14:32.680 Yeah.

01:14:32.840 We got a lot of great questions.

01:14:34.280 So thank you to everyone.

01:14:35.300 Um, we'll always be doing these segments.

01:14:37.240 So questions at devilmakecaremedia.com.

01:14:39.240 Keep them coming.

01:14:40.120 Uh, the first one is from Carter who describes himself as a 23 year old gay conservative who

01:14:44.380 is a huge fan of yours.

01:14:46.300 And he wants to know, do you think there will be riots regardless of who wins or only if Trump

01:14:50.640 wins and do you think Trump will concede if he does lose to Joe Biden?

01:14:54.560 So we're seeing, uh, obviously, uh, lots of boarding up in cities all across the country.

01:14:59.060 Uh, riots regardless.

01:15:00.780 He wants to know.

01:15:01.360 It's insane here in New York.

01:15:02.440 I mean, Madison Avenue, one of the nicest streets with all the fancy stores is completely boarded

01:15:06.260 up.

01:15:06.420 Looks like a war zone right now.

01:15:07.660 It's crazy.

01:15:08.380 I mean, people get it together.

01:15:09.900 I realize you may be upset with whatever the result is one way or the other, but rioting

01:15:13.740 and throwing rocks through glass windows is not the answer.

01:15:16.420 Looting all of it.

01:15:17.460 People always wind up getting hurt or worse.

01:15:20.360 Um, this is no way to manage one's anger and it doesn't say anything good about the

01:15:24.100 people who resort to that kind of behavior.

01:15:26.420 Um, my, my impression, as I mentioned with Huckabee is the Republicans don't generally

01:15:31.840 riot in response to things like this.

01:15:33.920 It tends to be the Democrats or you see it sometimes at sporting events where it's nonpartisan.

01:15:39.000 Um, so, and I do think given the level of hatred for Trump that the Republicans don't

01:15:43.740 feel for Biden, they may not like him, but they don't hate him.

01:15:46.500 And there's certainly nobody calling him, you know, a Hitler-esque type figure.

01:15:50.900 Uh, I do think you're going to see riots and I think it'll, it's, it's, I think we'll

01:15:55.160 be fine if Joe Biden wins.

01:15:56.680 And I think it's going to get very ugly, very ugly if Trump does.

01:16:01.020 What do you think?

01:16:01.700 Yeah, I, I, I tend to agree with both you and, and Governor Huckabee on this, which is

01:16:06.100 that, you know, if Donald Trump wins, I think that there, there could certainly be riots.

01:16:10.320 If Joe Biden wins decisively, I think that there will not be riots, but if it's really

01:16:15.260 close, I, I worry about both sides, frankly.

01:16:17.700 Um, and you know, I, I, I guess that also kind of dovetails with, uh, with Carter's another,

01:16:22.060 uh, his second question, which is, do you think Trump will concede if he does lose to Biden?

01:16:26.580 In which, you know, Carter's question there's, it's kind of loaded.

01:16:29.360 Uh, I, I saw a reporting from Axios this morning that Joe Biden plans to, uh, give his victory

01:16:34.480 address, even if Trump has not conceded, if the media has called it for him, uh, which

01:16:39.840 I guess makes sense, but it's also, you know, what does it mean if he loses to Biden?

01:16:44.060 But I guess the question is, do you think Trump will concede?

01:16:47.400 Oh, I think Joe Biden should offer a victory speech if the media has called it for him.

01:16:51.400 And even if Trump hasn't conceded, I would do that too.

01:16:54.160 Right.

01:16:54.400 Wouldn't you wait around for Trump to determine whether you won or lost when the numbers are in.

01:16:59.020 I think the question, it's like, can you trust the media if they call it for Biden?

01:17:02.580 And I think you can, I, I, I, here's why I think you can trust the media on, it's not

01:17:06.520 like they didn't get it wrong before.

01:17:08.000 As Huckabee was pointing out in 2000 in Florida, they, they, they projected Florida before they

01:17:12.820 had gotten the panhandle votes in.

01:17:14.180 And those are Republican, right?

01:17:15.420 And they went for George W. Bush.

01:17:16.660 And that's why we had some period of time where we thought Al Gore won.

01:17:19.300 And it was far more complicated than that hanging chads and all the rest of it.

01:17:22.340 It was very, very close.

01:17:23.760 So it was a tough state to call.

01:17:26.040 The media can get out over its skis.

01:17:27.940 But I think, um, you can trust tonight that the calls of the States, because those that's

01:17:34.580 not run by Don Lemon.

01:17:36.040 All right.

01:17:36.660 And, and, and, and really in defense of the other side, Tucker Carlson doesn't make those

01:17:41.740 car, those calls on Fox news and nor does Brett Baer.

01:17:44.740 Those calls are made by the decision desk.

01:17:47.260 And I've worked years and years and years with these guys.

01:17:50.100 They're as straight as they come.

01:17:52.160 These are straight arrows.

01:17:53.580 They want only one thing, which is to get it right and not screw it up.

01:17:59.120 And they will make damn sure, especially in the wake of 2000, where they all got, they

01:18:03.320 still are close enough to that.

01:18:04.700 They feel egg on their faces still that they do not project a win in a, in a state before

01:18:09.760 they are ready.

01:18:10.840 I will 100% trust what the Fox news decision desk tells me tonight.

01:18:16.120 And it will be announced by Brett and Martha, but they will not be the ones who have reached

01:18:22.280 the conclusion.

01:18:23.320 So anyway, if they say Trump won or Trump lost, I think you can trust it.

01:18:27.140 Um, and I think Trump will only concede quickly if it's a bloodbath.

01:18:32.840 And I do think no matter what, if he loses, he's going to grumble about an unfair system,

01:18:39.420 rigged, rigged, rigged.

01:18:40.360 He'll say, he'll say the mail-in voting was rigged.

01:18:43.740 Um, that's why it would be nice.

01:18:45.840 Whoever wins, if it's a crushing defeat, right?

01:18:49.200 Either side.

01:18:49.820 So the other side can complain all at once, but we don't really have to trust it or listen

01:18:53.320 to it for long.

01:18:54.580 Um, but I do think there's a chance of actual shenanigans that we have to, we have to be

01:19:00.240 open-minded to there.

01:19:01.460 This election is high stakes and both sides are really pumped up and the Democrats loathe

01:19:10.920 him.

01:19:11.780 So you have to get a little worried about people thinking the ends may justify the means

01:19:15.720 if it gets really, really tight.

01:19:18.100 Right.

01:19:18.300 Yeah.

01:19:18.500 I think that there's, that's why it's so interesting about the different scenarios that were laid

01:19:22.400 out really by both guests, because there's certainly a scenario where, where, where Pennsylvania

01:19:26.400 won't matter.

01:19:27.140 Maybe Donald Trump will lose regardless, but he'll, he'll concede and then fight Pennsylvania

01:19:31.420 and then use that as this, you know, uh, uh, example to, to set, uh, for what it could

01:19:36.960 be other in other ways.

01:19:37.780 So I don't know, I guess we'll see so many different scenarios.

01:19:40.300 Uh, let me ask you one.

01:19:41.660 Here's the way I'll give you one last thought.

01:19:43.060 Here's the, if, if Trump loses, if they say he lost and Trump is fighting it, the first

01:19:46.540 person to concede will be Melania.

01:19:48.880 She's like, I'm done with this.

01:19:50.180 I'm going back to New York.

01:19:51.920 I do not want to decorate for the fucking Christmas again.

01:19:55.000 Sorry.

01:19:56.440 Off to Mar-a-Lago.

01:19:57.960 Enough of this.

01:19:59.140 Uh, yeah.

01:20:00.460 Uh, all right.

01:20:01.040 Last question.

01:20:01.900 Uh, let's, let's bring this one from Kelsey Stevens, uh, who describes herself as a political

01:20:06.060 newbie.

01:20:06.540 She wants to know, uh, that's a good question.

01:20:08.380 How much of America do you think has chosen their party because of demographic political

01:20:11.840 exposure they're surrounded with, as opposed to independently reflecting and researching

01:20:16.480 their own stance?

01:20:18.740 Most of it.

01:20:19.780 That is a good question.

01:20:21.240 Most of it.

01:20:21.840 I don't think people realize how, how much of the boiled frogs they are.

01:20:25.180 You know, where you're just in the pot and you're swimming and it's a nice pot and you

01:20:28.600 enjoy the water and suddenly it's kind of warm.

01:20:31.180 And then before you know it, you're boiled.

01:20:32.820 I just think that, sorry for the animal lovers of which I am one.

01:20:36.800 Um, I, I just think you get influenced by the media and your parents and your friends

01:20:41.960 and your schools and your surroundings in a way you might not otherwise know.

01:20:45.500 And I, I would say it reminds me of something Roger Rails asked me when I was young and

01:20:50.800 I was actually, I was interviewing at Fox news.

01:20:53.000 This was back in 2004, I guess.

01:20:55.280 And he said, how does a daughter of a nurse and a college professor from upstate New York

01:21:01.840 wind up fair and balanced?

01:21:03.780 And he didn't mean Republican.

01:21:05.260 He just meant open-minded, right?

01:21:07.200 It was open-minded to truth and facts and so on.

01:21:09.520 And it was a good question.

01:21:10.760 He was basically trying to say, you've clearly been indoctrinated in left-wing thinking.

01:21:15.340 How do I know you're going to, not going to come here and, you know, not give Republicans

01:21:19.020 a fair shake.

01:21:20.540 And I thought about that.

01:21:22.420 And the answer was, I was not raised in an ideological family.

01:21:26.400 My parents were both Democrats, but we weren't particularly ideological and we were Catholics.

01:21:31.500 My parents were pro-life.

01:21:33.260 So even though we were Democrats, we were, you know, not down the line with what's, you

01:21:38.240 know, sort of taken as Democrat ideology.

01:21:40.900 And then I graduated.

01:21:42.980 I put myself through law school and I started to see what was happening to my paycheck.

01:21:45.980 Started to get really concerned about these high taxes that they would smack on even young

01:21:50.560 people saying we didn't pay our fair share.

01:21:53.120 And then I worked at a big law firm where I was exposed to sort of chiefs of industry and

01:21:57.800 CEOs and learned sort of how demonizing them and taking all their money and cracking down

01:22:02.780 on them with regulations doesn't always lead to good results for the workers.

01:22:06.440 And just sort of started to see, oh, there's another side to a lot of these stories have

01:22:09.540 been told.

01:22:10.120 I should listen.

01:22:11.400 Maybe I'll learn.

01:22:12.800 And that was my basic mindset when I went into Fox News.

01:22:15.420 But if I hadn't done that stuff, if I had, you know, just taken a job, let's say teaching

01:22:20.600 in my hometown, which, you know, academia tends to lean very left.

01:22:24.800 I don't think I, I don't think I would have wound up fair and balanced.

01:22:29.280 And I think people really need to work to get themselves out of the echo chamber that

01:22:33.700 they grow up in.

01:22:34.980 Yeah.

01:22:35.200 You think?

01:22:35.560 Yeah.

01:22:35.900 No, I do.

01:22:36.540 Although I look at it now and the corollary in 2020 of the media, people, the barrier to

01:22:42.560 entry is so much easier now, right?

01:22:45.080 You can go, people, you know, think of podcasts and YouTube shows, you know, people like, like,

01:22:50.820 you know, that listen to this show or like listen to Ben Shapiro and Joe Rogan.

01:22:54.360 And, you know, Tim Poole.

01:22:56.480 And that's how they get their news.

01:22:57.880 Crystal and Sagar, who are going to be on with us tomorrow.

01:23:00.700 You know, and then those are the kinds of sources that open their mind that get them

01:23:04.840 thinking.

01:23:05.920 Social media has got a lot of negative sides to it, but it also has some positive sides

01:23:09.720 about how things get shared and discovered.

01:23:13.460 So I do wonder if there's if there's a bit of a shift that we're starting to see now,

01:23:17.560 which I think is a good thing.

01:23:18.760 People, you know, think for themselves.

01:23:21.060 I hope you're right.

01:23:21.720 And honestly, that's that's why I wanted to, you know, do my little talking points thing

01:23:26.240 at the top of the show, because I've been sitting back the past couple of years.

01:23:29.720 And even while at NBC, I didn't do a ton of political coverage, frustrated because facts

01:23:35.160 are knowable.

01:23:36.340 And, you know, there are truths to get your arms around.

01:23:39.940 You know, for for a long time, Steve, I looked at.

01:23:45.320 The media in the Trump era.

01:23:48.200 And to me, it it reminded me of the line from the movie War Games, the only winning move

01:23:53.940 is not to play.

01:23:56.100 That the only options available to me are places that are biased one way or the other,

01:24:00.700 and I just don't want to play.

01:24:02.200 And that's why I'm so grateful to Ben Shapiro for saying, OK, there is like a meaningful

01:24:08.900 avenue over here in digital and podcasting where you can really reach a wide audience

01:24:14.580 and say what you want to say.

01:24:17.620 And that's really that's what my goal is, right?

01:24:20.080 To be able to just say, like, this is what's real.

01:24:22.680 Trump has had screw ups.

01:24:24.960 He has lied, but he's also done a lot of good and he doesn't get any credit from it, for

01:24:31.640 it, from this incredibly dishonest, suicidal media, you know, that they're on a kamikaze

01:24:38.920 mission to take him down and themselves with him.

01:24:43.680 Yeah, well, that's what's gonna be so interesting.

01:24:45.640 I mean, you know, this time tomorrow when we're doing another show, we'll know some stuff.

01:24:50.960 Hopefully we'll know a lot.

01:24:52.340 But, you know, we're going to we're going to see a lot of.

01:24:55.160 Get a lot of answers in the next 24 hours.

01:24:57.600 Oh, we hope so.

01:24:58.480 I think so.

01:24:58.900 I feel better after Huckabee, don't you?

01:25:00.620 Yeah.

01:25:00.760 I mean, not Huckabee, Trippie.

01:25:01.900 Yeah.

01:25:02.120 Yeah.

01:25:02.700 I mean, you know, Trippie made me feel like we're going to know stuff.

01:25:05.020 I think we I think we will.

01:25:06.140 Hopefully.

01:25:06.600 Yeah.

01:25:07.180 It may or may not be what you want to know, but I think we're going to know stuff.

01:25:09.760 But Trippie convinced me that when we see the early signs in Florida and some of these

01:25:13.060 key counties, we'll have some inkling one way or the other.

01:25:16.380 And I'll take an inkling at this point.

01:25:18.300 Steve, thank you, sir.

01:25:19.440 Yes.

01:25:20.060 Back again tomorrow.

01:25:20.660 And I want to say thank you to all of our guests, to Joe Trippie, to Mike Huckabee.

01:25:25.180 He's such a good guy.

01:25:26.220 You know, before I let you go, there's a funny story about him.

01:25:28.420 You can see it on the Internet.

01:25:29.360 But he came on my show one time and I was reading the intro in the prompter.

01:25:34.240 And it said, joining me now is Governor Mike Huckabee of Huckabee, whatever the show.

01:25:42.680 I can't remember exactly how it went, but it was of Huckabee.

01:25:45.060 That's how I had to say it.

01:25:46.420 And, you know, I spoke a little too fast.

01:25:49.900 And what came out was, joining me now is Mike Huckabee, which I really thought for time

01:25:57.840 might stick.

01:25:58.740 It's kind of a cute little nickname.

01:26:00.080 No, it didn't, but it was the only time I've used the F word on television.

01:26:07.620 And you will laugh if you see the clip online.

01:26:10.000 Anyway, my thanks to Governor Mike Huckabee and to Joe Trippie and to all of you for listening

01:26:16.500 to us on this important day.

01:26:18.440 I want to tell you that today's episode was brought to you in part by Blinds Galore.

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The Megyn Kelly Show - November 03, 2020

Election Day, With Gov. Mike Huckabee and Joe Trippi ｜ Ep. 19

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