The Megyn Kelly Show - Election Overtime, with Charles C.W. Cooke, Krystal Ball and Saagar Enjeti ｜ Ep. 20

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00:00:30.600 Welcome to The Megyn Kelly Show.

00:00:32.520 Your home for open, honest, and provocative conversations.

00:00:41.380 Hey everyone, welcome to The Megyn Kelly Show.

00:00:43.740 I'm Megyn Kelly, and wow, what a night.

00:00:48.020 We still don't have answers.

00:00:49.800 I guess we didn't really expect to have them,

00:00:52.380 but we were kind of hoping we might.

00:00:54.720 And in my view, this race now comes down mostly to Michigan,

00:00:59.200 also Pennsylvania, but my eyes are on Michigan.

00:01:03.420 Trump still has a path to victory,

00:01:05.340 though it got a lot narrower when he lost Arizona.

00:01:08.240 That's 11 electoral votes he really needed.

00:01:11.220 And he needed to hold sort of his base states,

00:01:15.600 given how tenuous his situation was looking in Michigan and in Wisconsin.

00:01:20.940 And he didn't.

00:01:22.980 He lost Arizona, which means he's got to win one of those two states in the Midwest

00:01:28.760 that he doesn't look so strong in right now.

00:01:32.200 Anything could still happen.

00:01:33.760 Pennsylvania, he's better positioned in,

00:01:35.400 though there's going to be a bunch of legal challenges.

00:01:37.780 And we should know more as the day, and certainly as the week goes on.

00:01:41.700 Look, we're joined today by some great guests.

00:01:43.440 We've got Charles C.W. Cook.

00:01:44.900 We've got Crystal Ball.

00:01:46.720 We've got Sagar and Jetty.

00:01:48.440 And I'm going to get to all of them in one second.

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00:03:04.060 Now, without further ado, Charles C.W. Cook.

00:03:07.780 Charles, thank you for being here.

00:03:09.840 Can we just talk about overall thoughts?

00:03:12.780 I haven't really gotten into too much with the audience yet,

00:03:15.660 but my assessment at this hour,

00:03:18.600 we're taping early in the morning, you know, mid-morning on Wednesday,

00:03:23.020 is it doesn't look good for Trump.

00:03:26.660 He didn't hold Arizona,

00:03:28.860 and that made his challenge bigger in the upper Midwest.

00:03:31.960 And the votes as we slept last night in Michigan got a lot tighter.

00:03:35.640 He's worse off in Wisconsin.

00:03:37.900 And the only way he can really win right now

00:03:39.940 is by holding the outstanding votes he's got.

00:03:41.820 He's not going to win Arizona.

00:03:42.740 People think that somehow we're going to flip that result back around.

00:03:45.940 I trust the Fox News decision desk when they call it for him, for Biden.

00:03:50.700 And so if that stands, he's probably not going to win Nevada.

00:03:53.360 He probably will win Georgia.

00:03:55.040 Looks like he's well-positioned in Pennsylvania and North Carolina,

00:03:57.720 but he still can't get it done with an Arizona loss

00:04:01.120 without winning Michigan or Wisconsin.

00:04:04.460 And Michigan was his best chance,

00:04:06.180 and it's extremely tight,

00:04:07.820 and there's a bunch of vote outstanding.

00:04:09.940 And typically, that doesn't look good.

00:04:12.060 If the mail-in vote in Michigan comes in

00:04:14.500 in the same percentages that it's been coming in,

00:04:17.660 he's going to lose

00:04:18.420 because Biden's been winning that vote,

00:04:20.320 according to what I read,

00:04:21.800 by about two to one,

00:04:24.840 or at least, or possibly more,

00:04:26.560 maybe even better margin.

00:04:28.260 Anyway, so he could still do it,

00:04:30.660 but he looked better last night when I went to sleep

00:04:33.280 than he looks this morning now that I've woken up.

00:04:35.740 What do you think?

00:04:37.000 I think he's lost.

00:04:38.820 I ran some numbers myself.

00:04:40.660 Now, I'm not especially good with numbers,

00:04:43.580 but I'm good enough to do elementary math.

00:04:46.660 And given the number of outstanding ballots,

00:04:49.400 I think he's going to lose Pennsylvania, Wisconsin,

00:04:52.700 and Michigan,

00:04:54.780 along with Arizona and Nevada.

00:04:56.940 Nevada will probably squeak through in Georgia,

00:04:59.660 but that's just not enough.

00:05:01.860 So I think it'll take a few days.

00:05:04.660 Nevada is not going to report until tomorrow,

00:05:08.320 which I find bizarre, frankly.

00:05:10.080 But I think Trump has lost unless there is some strange voting pattern in more than one state

00:05:19.620 we've never seen before,

00:05:21.300 or a legal challenge cleans it up for him after the fact.

00:05:26.220 But if I were to place a bet on it today,

00:05:28.940 it would be that Joe Biden has extremely narrowly won.

00:05:33.760 Why do you think he's losing Pennsylvania?

00:05:36.220 The latest news this morning from the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette is that Trump is leading by 12 points,

00:05:41.480 about 650,000 votes,

00:05:43.240 but they're waiting for the mail-in votes yet to be counted.

00:05:47.460 But that's a pretty healthy margin.

00:05:48.880 Well, it is,

00:05:50.220 but there's 1.4 million votes yet to be counted.

00:05:54.980 And unless the New York Times analysts that I was reading are wrong,

00:06:01.460 those are going to go overwhelmingly for Biden.

00:06:04.260 The numbers have been almost four to one.

00:06:07.560 I think they revised that this morning to 1 million outstanding.

00:06:11.480 But still, I see your point.

00:06:13.100 Okay, well, then he has a little better chance.

00:06:15.760 I stand corrected.

00:06:18.840 But it's still not enough with the loss of Arizona.

00:06:23.260 And I do think Arizona's lost.

00:06:24.820 I think Arizona's a lot closer than it looked last night.

00:06:27.280 That one's gone in the other direction.

00:06:28.940 But it won't be enough.

00:06:30.140 He would need another state.

00:06:32.360 And it doesn't look to me as if he's going to get it.

00:06:35.280 Well, look, if he can reverse Arizona,

00:06:38.080 and the reason I'm saying I don't think he can

00:06:39.780 is because I've worked with the Fox News Decision Desk for years.

00:06:42.680 And those guys, they don't call it unless they are 100% certain.

00:06:47.580 I mean, they just don't.

00:06:48.940 And they've been out on a limb before on many states.

00:06:51.460 I've seen this with them year after year.

00:06:53.320 They've gone out on a limb.

00:06:54.360 They've called it.

00:06:54.980 They've gotten pushback.

00:06:55.880 You called it too soon.

00:06:56.920 I've never seen them loose.

00:06:58.120 I've never seen them be wrong and have to reverse it at any point

00:07:02.040 other than the debacle of 2000

00:07:03.920 when everybody got Florida wrong.

00:07:06.100 So my history with them tells me they get it right.

00:07:10.380 Right.

00:07:10.560 Now, I know it's getting tighter in Arizona,

00:07:12.480 but they look at all that.

00:07:13.860 They look at the outstanding counties.

00:07:15.440 They wait them to see, are they mostly Democratic?

00:07:18.880 Are they mostly Republican?

00:07:20.560 What are the percentages that typically go this way or that way?

00:07:23.440 They'll factor in a secret Trump vote.

00:07:25.080 They'll factor in all of that.

00:07:26.480 And they wouldn't have called it

00:07:28.060 unless they were convinced Trump couldn't do it in Arizona.

00:07:29.840 So if he flips it, though, if he does do it,

00:07:33.700 he's back in business because then he'd only need Pennsylvania.

00:07:37.960 And I mean, of course, assuming he gets Georgia, North Carolina,

00:07:40.920 and the other ones we were talking about.

00:07:41.900 But then of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin,

00:07:44.040 he'd only have to hold on to Pennsylvania,

00:07:46.180 and he could lose Michigan and Wisconsin.

00:07:48.860 That's correct.

00:07:49.280 I have a model, which is a very fancy way of saying a spreadsheet,

00:07:53.860 that shows Trump losing Arizona by 60,000 at the end of all of this.

00:08:00.780 So it is just about possible,

00:08:03.920 in large part because Maricopa County,

00:08:08.100 which has historically been Republican,

00:08:10.020 but has been moving toward the Democrats in recent years,

00:08:12.400 is a big suburb, essentially.

00:08:14.440 It's an enormous, sprawling suburb.

00:08:18.360 And you can't always tell how those votes are going to come in,

00:08:23.960 much as Trump has struggled with suburban voters.

00:08:28.940 But I concur.

00:08:30.840 I think the Fox desk got that right,

00:08:33.240 although they did call it very early, surprisingly early,

00:08:35.860 and I don't think it's going to turn around.

00:08:38.760 Michigan, the latest numbers are Biden's losing by about 13,000 votes,

00:08:43.040 but there are some 360,000 estimated votes yet to be counted.

00:08:50.120 And again, they've been going,

00:08:52.640 I think it's 67% to 32% Biden v. Trump,

00:08:56.960 so if the mail-in votes.

00:08:59.940 And so if that continues,

00:09:02.260 you can see why people would think Biden's going to win Michigan.

00:09:06.760 Now, you know, so we don't know,

00:09:09.140 but I think we're both on the same page that,

00:09:10.720 as of this morning, doesn't look that great for Trump.

00:09:15.360 Can we just talk about the other messages

00:09:17.640 that you took away from last night?

00:09:21.940 Sure.

00:09:22.460 Well, the fact that we're having this conversation

00:09:24.860 is extraordinary, given the polling.

00:09:29.320 Now, I never believed that this race was as won for Biden,

00:09:37.060 as the press and the pollsters suggested.

00:09:39.920 I often felt self-conscious feeling this,

00:09:43.080 and I developed this gap between my gut and my head.

00:09:48.060 But I couldn't talk my head

00:09:50.120 into supporting what I was feeling,

00:09:53.280 given the polls.

00:09:54.160 Once again, the polls were off.

00:09:59.340 They were dramatically off.

00:10:00.720 And it's not just in America that this is the case.

00:10:03.860 They were off in Brexit in Britain.

00:10:07.060 They were off in the 2019 British general election.

00:10:10.320 They were off in the Australian general election.

00:10:12.520 There is a problem with polling

00:10:14.220 and in the media in general.

00:10:17.700 And I think it's twofold.

00:10:19.140 One, it just, for some reason,

00:10:21.800 does not pick up center-right voters,

00:10:24.920 especially center-right voters in working-class areas

00:10:29.360 and increasingly center-right voters in Hispanic

00:10:34.060 and sometimes African-American areas.

00:10:37.480 And the second problem is that I don't think anyone

00:10:40.420 in the press really knows any Trump voters

00:10:43.880 or knows what it would feel like to be one,

00:10:47.560 knows what it would feel like to be on the other end

00:10:51.040 of our ongoing culture war.

00:10:54.880 And as a result, what we saw was a prediction

00:10:59.180 of a Trump landslide defeat.

00:11:04.420 And it didn't come to pass.

00:11:05.940 I mean, he almost won.

00:11:06.980 It is still possible at the margins that he will win.

00:11:10.400 And so I think that even though Biden is likely

00:11:13.680 to prevail here, this was a terrible, terrible night

00:11:17.780 for the Democratic Party.

00:11:19.560 This was an embarrassing night

00:11:20.860 for the Democratic Party.

00:11:22.060 They didn't get their landslide.

00:11:24.160 They didn't flip Texas.

00:11:25.400 They didn't flip Florida.

00:11:28.360 They have, it seems, won in the Midwest,

00:11:31.160 but there was no repudiation.

00:11:33.360 The Republicans seem to have kept control of the Senate.

00:11:37.480 And in fact, by the same models, i.e. my spreadsheet

00:11:40.200 that I mentioned, I have the Republican Party

00:11:45.080 losing only one seat net here.

00:11:50.660 And they've picked up seats in the House.

00:11:52.540 They've picked up seats in state legislatures.

00:11:55.840 This was not how this was supposed to go.

00:11:58.200 This was not what we were told to expect.

00:12:00.380 And it is time, even if it is the case

00:12:03.980 that Biden has beaten Trump for people

00:12:06.880 who tell us authoritatively all the time

00:12:10.000 what is true and what is happening

00:12:12.120 to realize that they don't have

00:12:14.540 a particularly strong grasp on reality.

00:12:17.700 Yep, I totally agree with you.

00:12:19.660 I think my biggest takeaway last night

00:12:21.800 is how these pollsters don't know anything about America.

00:12:26.500 They just don't understand anything

00:12:28.720 other than their, quote, elite, liberal,

00:12:31.820 tend to be media circles.

00:12:33.300 And it's an echo chamber.

00:12:36.140 And there was a secret or shy Trump vote.

00:12:39.320 We saw it come out last night.

00:12:40.680 And as I said on this podcast a few times

00:12:42.480 prior to yesterday,

00:12:43.720 the only real question in the election

00:12:45.360 was how big it would be.

00:12:46.980 How big would it be?

00:12:47.920 It did exist.

00:12:49.640 And shockingly to some,

00:12:51.460 you saw it exist in some minority communities.

00:12:54.200 And that's really just stunned the media

00:12:58.060 and the Democrats we heard on TV last night.

00:12:59.900 They could not believe that Hispanics 1.00

00:13:02.920 went overwhelmingly for Trump

00:13:04.940 in places like Miami-Dade County.

00:13:06.960 And he did well with them in Texas.

00:13:09.280 And they, you know,

00:13:10.460 they've spent four years telling us

00:13:12.220 he is a xenophobic, racist bigot. 0.84

00:13:15.720 And they were melting down

00:13:18.540 when you saw Trump do very well

00:13:21.100 with a group who the exit polls tell us

00:13:24.160 are really focused on the economy.

00:13:27.100 They, they're not into these identity politics.

00:13:30.340 They want to do well economically.

00:13:32.540 They want opportunity.

00:13:33.780 And, and all the,

00:13:35.800 just the pearl clutching

00:13:38.360 we've seen over four years

00:13:39.540 about how awful he was

00:13:41.140 and Trump pushing back saying,

00:13:43.080 no, no, no, no, no.

00:13:44.120 It's, it's your refusal.

00:13:46.440 The, the, the governors

00:13:48.120 hold the governed in contempt

00:13:50.760 and I'm here to expose it.

00:13:53.820 Resonated.

00:13:54.460 And it may not have pushed him

00:13:55.760 over the finish line,

00:13:56.580 but boy, oh boy,

00:13:57.600 I don't think

00:13:58.440 without a serious reckoning

00:14:00.760 by the Democrats in the media.

00:14:02.700 I, I just don't think

00:14:03.920 anything's going to change.

00:14:05.560 I think we'll go right back

00:14:06.820 into bad polls

00:14:07.640 in the, in the midterm elections

00:14:08.840 and we'll have

00:14:09.780 two to four more years

00:14:11.160 over this next election cycle

00:14:12.300 of similarly biased coverage.

00:14:14.580 I don't know what it's going to take

00:14:15.900 for them to get it.

00:14:16.700 You know, maybe it would have taken

00:14:17.620 a clear Trump win,

00:14:18.940 which again, you could still do.

00:14:21.040 You know, one of the topics

00:14:23.040 that has been

00:14:24.480 dear to National Review's heart of late

00:14:27.500 is this illiberalism

00:14:29.320 that you have begun to see

00:14:30.820 in the media,

00:14:32.480 in the academy,

00:14:34.360 in Hollywood,

00:14:36.200 that drives people

00:14:38.340 who disagree with whatever

00:14:40.200 prevailing cultural sentiments

00:14:42.120 it is assumed they should believe

00:14:45.440 out of the public square.

00:14:47.540 Either that silences them preemptively

00:14:50.140 by raising the cost of them

00:14:52.220 saying what they really believe

00:14:53.980 or of actually trying to get them fired

00:14:56.820 or to participate in a struggle session

00:15:00.180 or what you will.

00:15:02.440 And that's bad enough,

00:15:03.480 but I think where it gets really sinister

00:15:05.040 and really totalitarian

00:15:06.380 is that those who have inflicted

00:15:08.480 this illiberalism on the country

00:15:09.900 seem simultaneously

00:15:11.620 to have started believing

00:15:13.000 that its results are real.

00:15:15.580 And so you've got

00:15:16.860 a real social cost

00:15:19.320 to anyone

00:15:20.360 who supports Donald Trump

00:15:22.940 or thinks that his message

00:15:24.660 should resonate,

00:15:28.060 but also this disbelief

00:15:30.140 from those who are imposing

00:15:31.500 that social cost

00:15:32.460 that the people

00:15:33.320 upon whom it's being imposed

00:15:34.660 actually

00:15:35.440 don't really believe it.

00:15:38.420 And so

00:15:38.740 they convince themselves,

00:15:40.780 I think,

00:15:41.240 over time

00:15:42.040 that they've won,

00:15:43.960 that they've

00:15:44.560 re-educated

00:15:45.680 the population.

00:15:47.460 But of course,

00:15:48.020 you can't

00:15:48.600 take that social pressure

00:15:50.700 into the voting booth.

00:15:52.300 I mean,

00:15:52.560 I voted in Florida by mail.

00:15:54.600 I sat at the desk

00:15:55.540 at which I work every day

00:15:56.860 and I filled in

00:15:58.580 a little circle

00:15:59.280 and I put it

00:16:00.180 in the

00:16:00.540 post box.

00:16:04.200 Nobody came

00:16:04.940 and looked over my shoulder.

00:16:05.980 Nobody threatened to fire me.

00:16:07.220 Nobody told me

00:16:07.720 I was right or wrong

00:16:08.940 or reprehensible

00:16:09.660 or virtuous.

00:16:11.340 And this is

00:16:12.560 an increasing problem

00:16:14.760 because it's created

00:16:16.140 this disconnect

00:16:16.900 between how people

00:16:18.100 actually behave

00:16:19.240 in their own homes

00:16:20.280 and when they get

00:16:21.380 to vote secretly

00:16:22.580 and what people say

00:16:25.020 in public.

00:16:26.540 And as well as being

00:16:27.380 bad in and of itself,

00:16:28.320 you just don't want

00:16:28.980 that sort of a liberal

00:16:29.780 culture in a free country.

00:16:31.060 It's actually really

00:16:32.200 harming the left

00:16:33.240 because it's taking

00:16:34.520 away from them

00:16:35.560 any real opportunity

00:16:38.060 to work out

00:16:38.940 what people

00:16:39.520 truly think,

00:16:41.020 what they believe,

00:16:41.880 what's important to them.

00:16:43.360 And again,

00:16:43.860 that we were just

00:16:44.480 having a conversation

00:16:45.440 about whether Trump

00:16:47.080 is going to squeak

00:16:47.920 this out

00:16:48.440 given what we have

00:16:49.540 been told

00:16:50.060 is utterly extraordinary.

00:16:51.520 And I don't think

00:16:51.980 we should lose sight

00:16:52.820 of that even

00:16:53.520 as Joe Biden

00:16:55.260 looks likely

00:16:55.760 to become

00:16:56.260 president-elect.

00:16:58.580 The need

00:17:00.060 to hold on

00:17:01.000 to identity politics

00:17:01.960 as the source

00:17:03.440 of all,

00:17:04.320 you know,

00:17:04.700 everything,

00:17:05.260 good and bad.

00:17:05.900 If it's good,

00:17:06.940 they say it's because

00:17:07.600 they triumphed

00:17:08.180 in their message.

00:17:08.800 If their results

00:17:09.640 are bad,

00:17:10.680 they say the same.

00:17:12.640 They say it's because

00:17:13.260 people didn't listen

00:17:14.600 to their virtue signaling.

00:17:16.140 And what we saw

00:17:16.800 last night

00:17:17.280 was people

00:17:18.460 like Jemele Hill,

00:17:20.160 who is just,

00:17:20.960 I mean,

00:17:21.480 she sees everything

00:17:22.680 through the prism

00:17:23.300 of race.

00:17:24.480 She retweeted,

00:17:25.980 polls don't have

00:17:26.960 an algorithm

00:17:27.580 for racism

00:17:28.600 as Trump was doing

00:17:30.880 well in the States.

00:17:32.140 And then she tweeted,

00:17:33.400 if Trump wins

00:17:34.100 re-election,

00:17:35.240 it is on white people,

00:17:37.340 no one else.

00:17:38.720 Meanwhile,

00:17:39.280 the only group

00:17:40.120 that Trump

00:17:40.880 underperformed with

00:17:41.900 in 2020

00:17:42.940 versus 2016,

00:17:44.360 according to the

00:17:44.780 exit poll so far,

00:17:46.340 is white men.

00:17:47.540 He improved his margins

00:17:48.660 with everyone else.

00:17:50.940 And yet you have Jemele,

00:17:52.080 you have people

00:17:52.560 like Arne Duncan,

00:17:54.220 Obama's education secretary.

00:17:56.400 This is the guy

00:17:56.860 who got rid of due process

00:17:58.360 for young men

00:17:59.060 on college campuses

00:17:59.920 when they've been accused

00:18:00.740 of sexual assault.

00:18:01.980 I mean,

00:18:02.220 got rid of it entirely.

00:18:03.700 And he's never apologized.

00:18:05.520 He came out with a tweet,

00:18:06.680 we need to talk a lot less

00:18:07.820 about red and blue

00:18:08.640 and a lot more

00:18:09.780 about whiteness.

00:18:11.880 They won't let go.

00:18:12.980 They're not,

00:18:13.300 they're not going to see this

00:18:15.380 even a Biden win

00:18:16.460 as some sort of proof

00:18:18.360 they should move on

00:18:19.740 from that message.

00:18:22.160 The message itself

00:18:23.840 is destructive,

00:18:24.920 but it's also

00:18:27.300 farcical.

00:18:30.680 If you go down

00:18:31.940 to South Florida

00:18:32.840 and you talk to

00:18:35.560 Hispanics

00:18:37.640 from Cuba,

00:18:40.400 Venezuela,

00:18:40.840 Colombia,

00:18:42.260 increasingly Brazil,

00:18:43.800 presumably in the future,

00:18:45.220 Chile,

00:18:45.780 given the socialist reforms

00:18:47.300 they're on the verge

00:18:47.940 of making,

00:18:49.120 and you try

00:18:51.660 all of this

00:18:53.040 faddy

00:18:55.040 university-led

00:18:57.100 newspeak

00:18:58.000 with them,

00:18:58.840 they won't just

00:18:59.640 reject it

00:19:00.680 and say,

00:19:01.060 no,

00:19:01.260 I don't like that,

00:19:02.140 that's not what I believe.

00:19:03.040 They will look at you funny.

00:19:04.880 I mean,

00:19:05.040 this phrase,

00:19:05.900 Latinx,

00:19:06.840 this term,

00:19:07.320 it's not just

00:19:09.060 that it's silly,

00:19:10.600 it's that no one

00:19:11.760 in the real world

00:19:13.400 has actually ever heard it.

00:19:15.460 If you look at polling

00:19:16.240 on this,

00:19:17.960 about 5%

00:19:19.180 of Hispanics

00:19:20.960 of all

00:19:21.440 walks of life

00:19:23.560 in all locations,

00:19:25.040 Hispanic is a very 1.00

00:19:25.940 wide group,

00:19:26.740 Californian Hispanics

00:19:27.540 are different than Texan,

00:19:28.420 Hispanics are different 1.00

00:19:29.120 than Floridian Hispanics,

00:19:30.140 but all of them

00:19:30.900 are baffled by it

00:19:32.860 if they've heard

00:19:33.800 of it at all,

00:19:34.440 and 1%

00:19:36.000 of them

00:19:36.540 like it.

00:19:39.260 The disconnect

00:19:40.260 between

00:19:41.540 Jamel Hill

00:19:42.620 and

00:19:43.220 normal people,

00:19:44.860 and when I say

00:19:45.280 normal people,

00:19:45.920 I'm not saying

00:19:46.460 real Americans,

00:19:47.620 I'm not talking

00:19:48.160 about people

00:19:49.140 who agree

00:19:50.420 with me

00:19:50.760 or don't

00:19:51.220 or live

00:19:51.480 in particular areas,

00:19:52.780 all normal people

00:19:53.920 getting on

00:19:54.420 with their lives,

00:19:54.860 going to work

00:19:55.480 in the morning,

00:19:56.880 raising families,

00:19:58.080 driving to the liquor store

00:19:59.260 and back,

00:20:00.220 they just have

00:20:00.920 no idea

00:20:02.080 what the Jamel Hills

00:20:03.860 of the world

00:20:04.300 are talking about.

00:20:04.440 talking about.

00:20:06.340 And again,

00:20:07.240 that's something

00:20:07.920 that needs to be fixed

00:20:09.180 because

00:20:09.600 she may as well 1.00

00:20:12.700 have put out

00:20:13.100 a bunch of tweets

00:20:13.740 in Latin.

00:20:14.960 It's just

00:20:15.640 extremely silly.

00:20:17.120 But she does speak

00:20:18.600 for a faction,

00:20:20.060 a large faction

00:20:20.920 of the Democratic Party

00:20:22.000 that sees the country

00:20:25.180 as awful,

00:20:26.660 and especially

00:20:27.140 when it does something

00:20:27.940 they don't like

00:20:28.500 electorally.

00:20:29.400 You know,

00:20:29.520 the actor John Cusack,

00:20:30.860 who's been terrible,

00:20:32.040 he sent out a tweet

00:20:32.740 last night,

00:20:33.160 this is an utterly

00:20:34.420 damning portrait

00:20:35.620 of decadence

00:20:36.660 and decay.

00:20:37.840 These aren't votes

00:20:38.460 for policies

00:20:39.060 or ideologies,

00:20:39.940 they are votes

00:20:40.480 for a man

00:20:41.360 who is mentally ill 0.82

00:20:43.100 and killing people 0.63

00:20:44.240 in a pandemic

00:20:44.980 and a child

00:20:46.440 abducting rapist

00:20:47.900 and racist.

00:20:49.220 The soul

00:20:49.800 of the United States

00:20:50.580 is deathly sick.

00:20:51.680 Ah!

00:20:52.460 It was like,

00:20:53.840 who are these people?

00:20:57.760 They don't,

00:20:58.880 you know,

00:20:59.060 meanwhile,

00:20:59.260 you have sane people

00:21:00.000 like Joe Trippi,

00:21:00.900 who we had on the show

00:21:01.500 yesterday,

00:21:02.000 Democrat pollster

00:21:02.720 and analysts saying,

00:21:04.600 look,

00:21:04.740 Biden's going to win.

00:21:05.780 He said he's going

00:21:06.380 to get the 270.

00:21:07.800 But this has been

00:21:09.080 a rejection.

00:21:10.060 It's been a rejection

00:21:10.700 of elites.

00:21:11.980 We scoffed

00:21:13.780 at the attacks

00:21:14.820 on Joe Biden

00:21:15.380 as a socialist.

00:21:16.260 We rolled our eyes.

00:21:17.520 But this was a rejection

00:21:18.560 of elites.

00:21:19.420 And he says,

00:21:19.860 and as someone

00:21:20.320 who's read polls

00:21:21.420 for 40 years,

00:21:22.780 it's all broken.

00:21:24.680 People don't want

00:21:25.280 to hear this,

00:21:25.960 he said,

00:21:26.640 but we have

00:21:27.460 to come out

00:21:28.040 of our silos

00:21:28.900 and talk

00:21:29.900 to Republican voters.

00:21:31.960 Yeah,

00:21:32.120 I'm glad you mentioned

00:21:33.280 the socialist

00:21:34.620 attack,

00:21:36.200 as it's called.

00:21:38.160 Because I was

00:21:39.560 struck last night

00:21:40.680 by how patronizing

00:21:41.920 some of the

00:21:43.360 explanations

00:21:44.100 I saw

00:21:45.060 for the way

00:21:46.400 that Floridians

00:21:47.600 voted,

00:21:48.240 especially,

00:21:49.100 were.

00:21:50.460 The explanation

00:21:51.600 that popped up

00:21:52.360 almost immediately

00:21:53.240 was,

00:21:54.600 well,

00:21:55.060 Trump and his friends

00:21:56.140 went down

00:21:56.920 into South Florida

00:21:57.960 and they tricked

00:21:59.320 the voters there.

00:22:01.440 They tricked them.

00:22:03.180 Disinformation.

00:22:04.820 As if they're idiots.

00:22:07.200 And they're not.

00:22:09.220 They're not.

00:22:10.760 They're normal

00:22:11.300 human beings.

00:22:12.260 They're no better

00:22:12.800 or worse

00:22:13.240 than anyone else.

00:22:15.200 But if your view

00:22:16.520 is that the people

00:22:17.480 that you are dealing

00:22:18.680 with are children

00:22:19.480 who can be easily tricked,

00:22:21.000 then you're going

00:22:21.420 to behave a certain way.

00:22:22.520 And it's probably

00:22:23.160 not a way

00:22:24.060 that's going to win

00:22:24.940 many majorities.

00:22:29.300 Can we spend

00:22:30.060 one minute

00:22:30.420 on just how wrong

00:22:31.380 the polls were?

00:22:32.920 I mean,

00:22:33.100 Nate Silver

00:22:33.620 had Donald Trump

00:22:34.360 with a 31% chance

00:22:35.560 of winning Florida.

00:22:36.560 31% chance.

00:22:37.660 Washington Post

00:22:38.340 had Biden

00:22:39.440 up 17 points

00:22:41.160 going into

00:22:42.720 this election.

00:22:44.360 You go through

00:22:45.220 the list

00:22:45.660 of like the

00:22:46.380 margins

00:22:47.960 that they were

00:22:48.520 giving Biden

00:22:49.140 in state

00:22:49.700 after state

00:22:50.340 after state.

00:22:51.180 In states,

00:22:51.660 it looks like

00:22:52.040 Trump is still

00:22:52.760 going to win.

00:22:53.140 I don't know.

00:22:55.560 I mean,

00:22:55.740 is polling over?

00:22:56.780 What does this do

00:22:57.340 to polling?

00:22:59.720 I don't think

00:23:00.740 they know much more

00:23:01.780 about what's

00:23:02.960 happening in America

00:23:03.760 than I do.

00:23:06.060 And it's sad

00:23:07.220 because

00:23:07.700 polling is a useful tool.

00:23:11.460 It's perhaps

00:23:12.200 an overused tool.

00:23:14.440 And that also

00:23:15.560 goes to our tendency

00:23:17.460 and perhaps

00:23:17.900 the tendency

00:23:18.460 in any democracy

00:23:19.680 to assume

00:23:20.560 that if a majority

00:23:21.400 is in favor

00:23:22.100 of something,

00:23:22.640 it must be good.

00:23:24.820 But it is

00:23:25.560 a useful tool

00:23:26.380 and it's used

00:23:28.100 for more than

00:23:28.800 just predicting

00:23:29.420 elections.

00:23:29.900 It's used

00:23:30.760 as a calibration

00:23:32.320 tool by politicians

00:23:34.280 to work out

00:23:35.060 what to think

00:23:35.900 and what people

00:23:37.160 want.

00:23:38.940 And something

00:23:39.340 I've been thinking

00:23:39.760 about recently

00:23:40.360 is if the polling

00:23:42.280 is so off

00:23:43.100 when it comes

00:23:43.620 to predicting

00:23:44.540 elections,

00:23:45.680 maybe it's

00:23:47.020 completely off

00:23:47.920 when it comes

00:23:49.400 to finding

00:23:50.860 out whether

00:23:51.600 a policy

00:23:52.540 is popular

00:23:53.280 or not

00:23:53.820 or voters

00:23:56.300 think that a

00:23:57.060 proposal is a

00:23:57.840 good idea

00:23:58.440 or not.

00:23:59.520 And that's a

00:24:00.360 problem.

00:24:01.140 I'm really

00:24:02.080 enjoying dunking

00:24:02.940 on the pollsters.

00:24:04.000 This has happened

00:24:04.460 over and over

00:24:05.080 again.

00:24:05.840 But I wish

00:24:06.380 they were better

00:24:07.020 at what they

00:24:07.900 do.

00:24:10.260 And to be

00:24:11.220 honest with you,

00:24:12.420 it strikes me

00:24:13.980 that we're just

00:24:14.500 going to have to

00:24:14.980 have a complete

00:24:15.800 rethink.

00:24:17.600 Whether it's

00:24:18.520 partly because

00:24:19.360 the pollsters

00:24:20.360 are biased

00:24:21.220 or insular,

00:24:23.640 whether it's

00:24:25.020 partly because

00:24:25.960 people don't

00:24:27.200 want to talk

00:24:28.100 to them for

00:24:28.820 whatever reason,

00:24:30.200 or whether

00:24:30.700 it's partly

00:24:31.800 because people's

00:24:34.520 habits are

00:24:35.160 different now.

00:24:36.040 If you watch

00:24:36.500 any movie in

00:24:37.160 the 1980s,

00:24:38.040 they stand in

00:24:38.560 the kitchen

00:24:39.000 with the phone

00:24:40.300 and there's a

00:24:40.660 cord that goes 0.76

00:24:41.480 from the phone

00:24:42.020 up to the

00:24:42.660 cradle.

00:24:46.380 That's obviously

00:24:47.120 not how people

00:24:47.820 live now.

00:24:50.220 And polling

00:24:51.060 hasn't really

00:24:52.100 caught up with

00:24:53.080 that.

00:24:53.820 It's still

00:24:54.380 built around

00:24:55.360 an older

00:24:56.360 model.

00:24:57.640 Well,

00:24:57.700 and it's also

00:24:58.140 affected by

00:25:00.540 what happens

00:25:01.060 in the media,

00:25:01.840 which is 100%

00:25:02.900 against the

00:25:03.620 Republicans and

00:25:04.960 certainly Donald

00:25:05.620 Trump.

00:25:06.520 And so even

00:25:07.100 if you have

00:25:07.660 the best method

00:25:08.300 for connecting

00:25:09.060 with people,

00:25:10.160 this is what

00:25:10.560 Trafalgar's been 0.96

00:25:11.200 saying,

00:25:11.740 they're not

00:25:12.040 going to tell

00:25:12.300 you the

00:25:12.500 truth.

00:25:13.900 We saw

00:25:15.140 evidence of

00:25:15.740 that yesterday

00:25:16.360 with the

00:25:18.520 shy Trump

00:25:20.240 voter.

00:25:20.820 I want to

00:25:21.740 ask you two

00:25:22.180 quick things.

00:25:23.320 So you

00:25:23.660 mentioned that

00:25:24.040 you think the

00:25:24.420 GOP is going

00:25:24.940 to hold the

00:25:25.320 Senate.

00:25:25.580 How confident

00:25:26.140 are we of

00:25:27.020 that?

00:25:27.400 I mean,

00:25:27.580 they needed

00:25:28.060 a flip.

00:25:28.740 If Biden

00:25:29.180 wins,

00:25:29.720 the Democrats

00:25:30.120 need to

00:25:30.500 flip a net

00:25:31.660 of three

00:25:32.140 seats.

00:25:34.400 It doesn't

00:25:35.200 look like

00:25:35.620 they're going

00:25:36.020 to from

00:25:36.580 what I've

00:25:37.120 seen,

00:25:37.420 but how

00:25:37.740 confident are

00:25:38.340 you that's

00:25:38.640 not happening?

00:25:39.640 I'm fairly

00:25:40.140 confident that

00:25:41.180 there will

00:25:41.640 eventually be

00:25:42.360 a Republican

00:25:43.060 majority.

00:25:44.380 At the

00:25:44.860 moment,

00:25:46.280 the remaining

00:25:47.540 seats are

00:25:48.780 Maine,

00:25:49.580 where Susan

00:25:50.100 Collins looks

00:25:50.680 as if she's

00:25:51.140 going to

00:25:51.440 win,

00:25:52.980 North Carolina,

00:25:54.840 which hasn't

00:25:56.600 been called,

00:25:57.380 but Tillis has

00:25:58.100 declared himself

00:25:58.640 the winner and

00:25:59.200 no one has

00:25:59.560 argued with

00:26:00.040 him,

00:26:01.080 Alaska,

00:26:02.340 which I'm

00:26:02.920 not worried

00:26:03.580 about,

00:26:04.920 Michigan,

00:26:06.140 I think

00:26:06.460 John James

00:26:07.160 unfortunately is

00:26:08.040 going to lose

00:26:08.880 at the

00:26:09.400 last,

00:26:09.880 but that

00:26:10.220 won't change

00:26:10.840 the overall

00:26:12.720 balance,

00:26:14.400 and then

00:26:15.320 the two

00:26:16.020 seats in

00:26:16.580 Georgia.

00:26:18.640 So this

00:26:19.060 could change.

00:26:19.600 What about

00:26:19.880 those?

00:26:20.480 They're a weird,

00:26:21.760 I don't totally

00:26:22.360 understand the

00:26:23.020 Georgia situation,

00:26:23.920 I just know

00:26:24.360 that there's

00:26:26.260 some sort of

00:26:26.720 a runoff

00:26:27.520 they may have,

00:26:28.420 it confuses

00:26:29.180 me,

00:26:29.560 it's like a

00:26:30.100 pair of

00:26:30.420 undetermined

00:26:30.860 races in

00:26:31.380 Georgia that 0.68

00:26:32.320 may require

00:26:32.760 yet another

00:26:33.220 vote.

00:26:34.260 Is that

00:26:34.880 going to

00:26:35.080 affect the

00:26:35.940 Republican

00:26:36.300 likely control?

00:26:37.420 Yes,

00:26:38.480 so what

00:26:39.340 happens in

00:26:39.900 Georgia is

00:26:40.960 if a

00:26:41.340 candidate

00:26:41.640 doesn't get

00:26:42.260 to 50%,

00:26:43.120 then there's

00:26:43.720 a runoff

00:26:44.300 election.

00:26:45.700 So in

00:26:46.260 one of the

00:26:46.960 races,

00:26:48.320 Perdue

00:26:48.640 versus

00:26:49.100 Ossoff,

00:26:50.180 there are

00:26:50.420 two candidates

00:26:51.060 and as

00:26:51.920 long as

00:26:52.280 Perdue

00:26:52.740 makes it

00:26:53.440 over 50%,

00:26:54.380 he will

00:26:54.860 win and

00:26:55.300 he will

00:26:55.880 be certified

00:26:57.060 immediately.

00:26:58.860 In the

00:26:59.480 other race,

00:27:00.060 there were

00:27:00.260 three candidates,

00:27:01.060 there were

00:27:01.220 two Republicans

00:27:01.860 and one

00:27:02.380 Democrat,

00:27:03.100 and so

00:27:03.480 none of

00:27:03.940 them obviously

00:27:04.300 got to

00:27:04.660 50%.

00:27:05.600 So that

00:27:07.220 race is

00:27:07.660 going to

00:27:07.860 be held

00:27:08.260 in a

00:27:08.540 few weeks,

00:27:09.080 I think

00:27:09.360 in early

00:27:09.700 January,

00:27:10.280 and that

00:27:11.140 will be

00:27:11.520 between

00:27:12.000 the

00:27:12.660 Democrat,

00:27:13.740 Warnock,

00:27:14.340 and Kelly

00:27:15.020 Lofler,

00:27:15.440 who beat

00:27:16.280 Doug Collins

00:27:17.360 between the

00:27:18.660 two Republicans

00:27:19.280 in the race.

00:27:20.660 So if she

00:27:21.060 loses,

00:27:21.920 then they

00:27:24.020 would go

00:27:24.280 down to

00:27:24.620 51%,

00:27:25.340 but they

00:27:26.460 would still

00:27:26.800 have a

00:27:27.100 majority,

00:27:28.180 all things

00:27:28.480 being equal.

00:27:29.620 Can you

00:27:30.240 imagine what

00:27:30.860 life is going

00:27:31.380 to be like,

00:27:31.940 Charles,

00:27:32.320 if you

00:27:33.140 have Biden

00:27:34.060 in the

00:27:34.400 White House

00:27:34.920 in a

00:27:36.040 GOP-controlled

00:27:36.940 Senate?

00:27:37.900 I mean,

00:27:39.040 what does

00:27:40.360 that do

00:27:40.880 to the

00:27:41.240 Biden

00:27:41.500 agenda?

00:27:42.320 I mean,

00:27:42.560 because these

00:27:43.460 Republicans are

00:27:44.100 going to be

00:27:44.320 more motivated

00:27:45.300 by, I

00:27:45.980 think,

00:27:46.300 Trump

00:27:46.620 politics

00:27:47.420 than ever.

00:27:48.400 They've been

00:27:48.760 rewarded for

00:27:49.400 them at

00:27:50.100 their level.

00:27:51.360 Voters may

00:27:52.020 have not

00:27:52.280 liked the

00:27:52.680 man,

00:27:53.060 Trump,

00:27:54.060 but if the

00:27:55.440 Republicans hold

00:27:56.040 on to the

00:27:56.400 Senate,

00:27:56.660 a different

00:27:56.960 message has

00:27:57.480 been sent

00:27:57.940 about the

00:27:58.580 promised

00:27:58.920 Biden

00:27:59.280 agenda.

00:27:59.660 It'll be

00:28:01.820 interesting in

00:28:03.260 that Joe

00:28:03.940 Biden, if

00:28:04.640 he does

00:28:05.060 prevail, is

00:28:06.200 going to be

00:28:07.000 the first

00:28:07.620 president of

00:28:08.400 the United

00:28:08.820 States since

00:28:09.460 1988, not

00:28:10.980 to come into

00:28:11.820 office with a

00:28:13.160 majority in

00:28:13.780 both houses.

00:28:15.420 Every other

00:28:15.980 president came

00:28:17.620 in with

00:28:18.300 control of the

00:28:18.960 Senate and

00:28:19.660 the House

00:28:20.100 since 1988.

00:28:22.260 And that's

00:28:23.520 going to

00:28:24.540 change the

00:28:26.420 locus of

00:28:27.160 power.

00:28:27.480 usually the

00:28:30.340 president comes

00:28:31.020 in, he's

00:28:31.900 new, he's

00:28:32.500 exciting, he's

00:28:33.200 popular, he's

00:28:34.360 in his

00:28:34.600 honeymoon period,

00:28:35.420 and you get

00:28:36.220 your first

00:28:37.280 100 days, you

00:28:38.440 get this

00:28:38.920 explosion of

00:28:40.600 energy and

00:28:41.300 effort.

00:28:42.460 And the

00:28:43.280 congressional

00:28:44.080 party, which

00:28:44.940 tends to

00:28:45.600 believe it is

00:28:46.100 there on the

00:28:46.760 coattails of

00:28:47.360 the president,

00:28:47.980 goes along

00:28:48.460 with it, helps.

00:28:49.800 Of course, that's

00:28:50.480 not going to

00:28:50.980 happen this

00:28:51.460 time.

00:28:52.120 You're going

00:28:52.560 to have

00:28:53.100 presumably

00:28:54.580 Senate

00:28:54.960 majority

00:28:55.420 leader Mitch

00:28:56.120 McConnell

00:28:56.580 with a

00:28:57.140 completely

00:28:57.560 different

00:28:58.060 agenda to

00:28:59.860 Joe Biden's.

00:29:01.700 So a lot

00:29:02.920 of the

00:29:03.200 things on

00:29:03.820 Joe Biden's

00:29:05.340 wish list

00:29:05.860 will just

00:29:06.520 disappear

00:29:07.780 until...

00:29:10.120 Like tax

00:29:10.420 hikes?

00:29:11.060 Well, tax

00:29:11.900 hikes, gun

00:29:13.000 control, court

00:29:14.180 packing, the

00:29:14.940 abolition of

00:29:15.420 the filibuster,

00:29:17.500 pretty much

00:29:18.300 everything on

00:29:19.500 that.

00:29:19.720 The public

00:29:20.080 option, any

00:29:21.780 changes to

00:29:23.620 fracking on

00:29:24.360 federal land

00:29:25.020 that can't be

00:29:25.560 done by

00:29:26.000 regulation, all

00:29:26.780 that's gone.

00:29:28.160 And of

00:29:28.420 course, although

00:29:29.580 there will have

00:29:30.020 to be some

00:29:30.380 compromises on

00:29:31.160 judges, crazy 0.99

00:29:33.020 left-wing judges

00:29:33.960 will probably

00:29:34.840 be rejected.

00:29:37.140 Where you

00:29:37.860 might see

00:29:38.560 some harmony

00:29:40.080 in Washington

00:29:40.640 for once

00:29:41.460 will be,

00:29:43.520 and you've

00:29:44.380 guessed this,

00:29:44.880 Megan, spending

00:29:45.740 lots of money

00:29:46.500 because there's

00:29:48.520 going to be a

00:29:49.920 bipartisan

00:29:50.620 desire to

00:29:52.420 mitigate the

00:29:54.240 shock of

00:29:55.740 coronavirus, and

00:29:57.300 there is still

00:29:57.940 a bipartisan

00:29:58.580 desire, especially

00:29:59.520 in a more

00:29:59.960 populist

00:30:00.480 Republican

00:30:00.900 party, to

00:30:01.660 do some

00:30:02.160 infrastructure.

00:30:03.200 It never

00:30:03.460 got done

00:30:04.000 under Trump.

00:30:05.100 It probably

00:30:05.800 will get

00:30:06.380 done under

00:30:07.580 Biden.

00:30:08.460 But other

00:30:08.900 than that,

00:30:10.280 you'll be

00:30:11.200 looking at

00:30:11.620 relatively calm

00:30:12.520 waters unless

00:30:13.560 something unforeseen

00:30:15.200 happens.

00:30:16.700 What happens

00:30:18.200 now?

00:30:18.680 I don't mean to

00:30:19.520 pronounce Trump's

00:30:20.440 death sentence in

00:30:21.380 this race because

00:30:22.100 he is still in

00:30:23.020 it.

00:30:23.300 Charles and I

00:30:23.660 are just being

00:30:24.140 realistic about

00:30:24.820 the numbers that

00:30:26.040 are outstanding and

00:30:27.140 using the

00:30:27.600 percentages of

00:30:28.300 vote that have

00:30:29.100 been allotted to

00:30:30.100 each candidate

00:30:30.580 based on the

00:30:31.080 vote coming in

00:30:31.880 so far.

00:30:32.320 So he could

00:30:32.680 still win.

00:30:34.800 So I don't

00:30:35.420 mean to be too

00:30:36.680 dour on his

00:30:37.300 chances, though

00:30:38.140 math is math,

00:30:39.420 right?

00:30:39.620 So it's like you

00:30:40.180 have to be

00:30:40.660 realistic.

00:30:41.780 But what happens

00:30:42.660 now if Trump

00:30:43.720 did not win?

00:30:45.880 Because we've

00:30:46.200 been talking about

00:30:46.560 legal challenges

00:30:47.340 and so on.

00:30:47.920 As I see it,

00:30:48.620 those are mostly

00:30:49.080 going to be

00:30:49.420 Pennsylvania and

00:30:50.080 North Carolina

00:30:50.500 legal challenges.

00:30:51.220 I haven't heard

00:30:51.680 a lot about

00:30:52.200 likely legal

00:30:53.120 challenges in

00:30:54.100 Michigan or

00:30:54.920 Arizona.

00:30:56.140 So it could be

00:30:57.020 a quote-unquote

00:30:58.300 clean win if

00:30:59.840 he loses in

00:31:00.520 those states as

00:31:01.200 opposed to and

00:31:02.140 maybe wins in

00:31:02.840 Pennsylvania.

00:31:04.240 But does he,

00:31:05.460 do you think he

00:31:06.420 would concede?

00:31:07.460 And what of the

00:31:09.580 Republican Party?

00:31:10.900 You know, his

00:31:11.300 imprint to me

00:31:12.880 seems pretty

00:31:14.220 secure.

00:31:17.440 I dread the

00:31:20.000 coming weeks.

00:31:21.740 I dread the

00:31:22.600 coming weeks if

00:31:23.440 Trump has

00:31:24.000 lost because I

00:31:25.400 suspect that he

00:31:26.420 will claim that

00:31:27.100 he has won.

00:31:28.660 The idea that he

00:31:29.700 was going to

00:31:30.100 barricade himself

00:31:30.980 in the White

00:31:31.540 House was always

00:31:32.240 far-fetched and

00:31:34.020 it also conceded

00:31:34.880 too much.

00:31:35.420 It's not his

00:31:36.180 decision whether

00:31:36.900 he wins or

00:31:37.560 loses and it's

00:31:38.540 not his decision

00:31:39.420 whether he stays

00:31:40.180 as president or

00:31:40.980 not.

00:31:42.280 But he does

00:31:43.140 have a bad

00:31:43.700 habit of

00:31:44.780 pretending that

00:31:46.020 he won things

00:31:46.780 that he didn't.

00:31:47.400 Think back to

00:31:48.060 the popular

00:31:48.480 vote in

00:31:48.920 2016 of

00:31:51.100 throwing around

00:31:51.740 charges of

00:31:52.340 fraud where

00:31:52.900 there is little

00:31:53.360 evidence and

00:31:54.100 of trying to

00:31:55.360 bludgeon his 0.58

00:31:56.040 way through

00:31:56.640 difficult situations.

00:31:57.940 This is a

00:31:58.380 difficult situation.

00:31:59.420 It's a sensitive

00:31:59.960 situation.

00:32:01.300 It's the

00:32:01.640 situation none

00:32:02.400 of us wanted.

00:32:04.620 And the

00:32:06.660 instincts that he

00:32:07.860 showed last night

00:32:08.740 were frankly

00:32:09.220 disgraceful.

00:32:10.440 And you know,

00:32:10.760 they are why

00:32:11.360 he's not taking

00:32:13.380 a victory lap

00:32:14.040 this morning,

00:32:14.660 having won a

00:32:15.860 bigger victory,

00:32:16.560 a cleaner victory.

00:32:17.900 He's his own

00:32:18.380 worst enemy.

00:32:19.840 That he behaves

00:32:20.700 in this way is

00:32:21.640 why so many

00:32:22.380 people couldn't

00:32:23.020 vote for him.

00:32:23.980 And just in

00:32:24.740 case people don't

00:32:25.400 know what you're

00:32:25.920 talking about,

00:32:27.060 he came out and

00:32:28.480 declared himself

00:32:28.980 the winner.

00:32:29.560 He said,

00:32:30.020 frankly, I have

00:32:31.520 won.

00:32:31.980 I think we have

00:32:32.860 actually a sound

00:32:33.480 bite just in

00:32:33.900 case.

00:32:34.260 Take a listen.

00:32:35.280 We will win

00:32:35.820 this and as

00:32:36.700 far as I'm

00:32:37.200 concerned, we

00:32:38.000 already have

00:32:38.800 won it.

00:32:39.400 So I just

00:32:40.160 want to thank

00:32:40.800 you.

00:32:41.980 Yeah.

00:32:42.640 So they

00:32:43.080 haven't already

00:32:44.340 won it.

00:32:44.780 That's not true.

00:32:45.540 And he got

00:32:47.060 a lot of

00:32:47.440 flack for

00:32:47.980 suggesting that

00:32:48.660 because it's

00:32:49.400 one thing to

00:32:49.900 stretch the

00:32:50.320 truth or be

00:32:51.080 full of

00:32:51.660 puffery on

00:32:52.480 a subject

00:32:53.000 when it's

00:32:55.800 relatively low

00:32:56.540 stakes or people

00:32:57.220 can understand

00:32:57.880 that that's all

00:32:58.400 it is.

00:32:58.820 But in a

00:32:59.420 presidential election,

00:33:00.280 it's extraordinary

00:33:01.160 to have one

00:33:01.860 candidate say

00:33:02.420 that before all

00:33:03.560 the votes are

00:33:04.000 counted and when

00:33:04.820 it's very much

00:33:05.680 uncertain.

00:33:06.100 Yeah, it's an

00:33:07.320 abhorrent lie and 0.51

00:33:08.740 it hurts him

00:33:10.600 too.

00:33:12.460 There are two

00:33:12.960 reasons why

00:33:14.040 politicians should

00:33:14.980 not do that.

00:33:16.040 The main one is

00:33:17.560 that it hurts the

00:33:18.240 country, it

00:33:19.260 damages the

00:33:19.940 office, and it

00:33:20.980 erodes trust in

00:33:22.080 our institutions

00:33:22.720 which matter.

00:33:23.820 That's the main

00:33:24.460 one.

00:33:24.680 That's the most

00:33:25.100 important one.

00:33:25.980 The second one is

00:33:27.440 that it's against

00:33:27.960 their self-interest.

00:33:29.140 You actually gain a

00:33:30.080 lot in life by

00:33:31.620 saying we will

00:33:32.980 wait and see.

00:33:33.980 I want this

00:33:34.380 process to be fair

00:33:35.480 if I've lost, I've

00:33:36.440 lost, if I've

00:33:36.980 won, I've won,

00:33:37.800 and I hope to

00:33:39.500 see the results

00:33:40.360 upheld.

00:33:41.680 Because then if

00:33:42.440 you do claim that

00:33:43.520 you've won, for

00:33:44.920 good reason, people

00:33:46.300 don't think that

00:33:47.100 you're just

00:33:47.500 blustering through

00:33:48.800 and lying.

00:33:50.740 Well, he's now

00:33:51.400 said something that

00:33:52.180 isn't true.

00:33:52.800 That's not to say

00:33:53.400 he hasn't won.

00:33:54.380 He could still

00:33:55.060 win.

00:33:56.160 But what he

00:33:56.900 said was

00:33:58.240 untrue last

00:33:59.080 night and it's

00:33:59.580 untrue this

00:34:01.120 morning, and it

00:34:02.140 does bode ill,

00:34:03.400 I'm afraid.

00:34:04.460 And if he

00:34:05.180 carries on

00:34:06.040 like that, then

00:34:07.980 whatever his

00:34:08.920 long-term

00:34:09.780 effect on the

00:34:11.940 Republican Party

00:34:12.840 and on the

00:34:13.320 country, much of

00:34:14.140 which has been

00:34:14.640 good, will

00:34:16.540 be clouded

00:34:19.520 out and he

00:34:20.140 will leave

00:34:20.720 under a cloud.

00:34:22.140 Yeah, he

00:34:22.400 doesn't want that

00:34:23.020 to be the

00:34:23.620 final message.

00:34:24.620 But I don't

00:34:25.940 know.

00:34:26.460 I'm sure the

00:34:27.400 legal teams are

00:34:28.200 pouring over

00:34:28.840 every single

00:34:29.880 thing that

00:34:30.260 happened.

00:34:30.640 Last night in

00:34:31.260 Michigan, when I

00:34:32.700 went to bed,

00:34:33.160 Trump had a

00:34:34.020 lead over

00:34:35.020 100,000, and

00:34:36.380 then apparently

00:34:37.020 what happened

00:34:37.480 was in like an

00:34:38.740 instant, it

00:34:40.120 was cut in

00:34:40.800 half.

00:34:41.760 And people

00:34:42.220 were saying,

00:34:42.740 where did all

00:34:43.020 those votes

00:34:43.380 come from?

00:34:44.020 You know,

00:34:44.200 there's all

00:34:44.760 sorts of

00:34:45.140 conspiracy theories.

00:34:46.720 But one

00:34:47.500 thing I'm

00:34:47.940 comforted by is

00:34:48.700 that the

00:34:48.920 Trump team

00:34:49.340 will make

00:34:49.940 good and

00:34:50.340 sure that

00:34:51.280 if Biden

00:34:51.760 has won

00:34:52.200 this thing,

00:34:53.080 every vote

00:34:53.800 is as

00:34:54.640 legitimate as

00:34:55.240 we can

00:34:55.540 know.

00:34:56.500 And I'm

00:34:56.980 in favor of

00:34:57.540 some legal

00:34:58.160 testing here.

00:34:58.840 I really am.

00:34:59.420 I think it's

00:34:59.780 kind of nuts

00:35:00.320 how in

00:35:00.660 Pennsylvania

00:35:01.020 they're

00:35:01.320 talking about,

00:35:02.480 you know,

00:35:02.900 well, maybe,

00:35:03.620 you know,

00:35:04.020 we're going to

00:35:04.480 try to figure

00:35:04.960 out if a

00:35:06.240 postmark is

00:35:07.020 smudged,

00:35:07.760 whether it

00:35:08.340 really was

00:35:08.860 dated prior to

00:35:09.760 Election Day

00:35:10.420 or on Election

00:35:11.100 Day.

00:35:11.360 Like, that's

00:35:11.880 nuts.

00:35:13.040 That can't

00:35:13.600 happen.

00:35:13.900 That's exactly

00:35:14.440 how voter

00:35:15.280 fraud happens.

00:35:16.020 And there's

00:35:16.260 no leeway in

00:35:17.440 the law for

00:35:17.960 these vote

00:35:18.820 counters to be 0.99

00:35:19.380 making those

00:35:19.960 determinations.

00:35:20.740 That was never

00:35:21.400 considered, that

00:35:22.140 some vote

00:35:23.520 counter would be

00:35:24.500 making subjective

00:35:25.860 decisions about

00:35:27.660 how to figure out

00:35:28.520 whether this vote

00:35:29.240 counts or not.

00:35:31.080 It's like, if the

00:35:31.840 postmark's clear,

00:35:32.620 you can count it.

00:35:33.220 If it's not,

00:35:33.960 it's got to go in

00:35:34.640 the to-be-contested

00:35:36.220 pile, at least.

00:35:37.680 Anyway, so for

00:35:39.540 what it's worth,

00:35:40.180 that's our

00:35:40.760 predictions.

00:35:41.360 I mean, Charles

00:35:41.760 and I are on the

00:35:42.180 same page when it

00:35:42.800 comes to the math.

00:35:43.580 I will confess,

00:35:44.300 it's never been my

00:35:44.960 strong suit, but

00:35:45.880 people who are

00:35:47.460 smarter than I am

00:35:48.240 are saying, this

00:35:49.140 is how it looks

00:35:49.740 for Trump in

00:35:50.880 Michigan,

00:35:51.300 Pennsylvania,

00:35:51.780 Wisconsin, and

00:35:52.240 so on.

00:35:52.500 Charles, thank

00:35:53.520 you so much.

00:35:54.480 Thank you so much

00:35:55.200 for having me.

00:35:57.820 So in just a

00:35:58.540 minute, we're 0.57

00:35:58.840 going to be

00:35:59.080 joined by

00:35:59.580 Crystal Ball and

00:36:00.340 Sagar and Jetty,

00:36:01.340 co-hosts of

00:36:02.220 RisingOnTheHill.com

00:36:03.920 for their take.

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00:37:28.200 Okay, before we

00:37:29.180 get to our guests,

00:37:29.780 I want to tell you

00:37:30.380 about a woman named

00:37:32.060 Jodi Shaw.

00:37:33.600 This is part of our

00:37:34.460 Devil May Care All

00:37:35.640 Stars feature that

00:37:36.940 we want to bring to

00:37:37.480 you.

00:37:37.700 These are people

00:37:38.640 standing up against

00:37:39.320 cancel culture or

00:37:41.080 the ridiculous identity

00:37:42.140 politics we see

00:37:42.940 everywhere.

00:37:44.400 And this woman

00:37:45.160 comes from all

00:37:45.800 places, Smith

00:37:46.880 College, one of the

00:37:47.640 most liberal.

00:37:48.920 We might be number

00:37:49.620 one, could be

00:37:50.160 number one.

00:37:50.560 Most liberal

00:37:51.160 college campus in

00:37:52.600 the nation.

00:37:53.740 And I highly

00:37:55.140 recommend looking at

00:37:56.460 her video online

00:37:57.560 because when you

00:37:59.240 meet Jodi Shaw, you

00:38:00.140 see she's not

00:38:00.960 particularly forceful in

00:38:02.120 her delivery.

00:38:03.340 She's a staffer at

00:38:04.300 Smith.

00:38:04.580 She's not on the

00:38:05.120 faculty, which she

00:38:05.860 makes sure to point

00:38:06.620 out.

00:38:07.360 But this woman is 1.00

00:38:09.240 kind of a badass.

00:38:10.700 She's taking a

00:38:11.740 stand against their

00:38:14.000 desire to push

00:38:15.060 everyone around based

00:38:16.620 on skin color.

00:38:18.460 And Jodi has

00:38:19.940 decided to do a

00:38:20.720 series of videos

00:38:21.720 offering specific

00:38:23.100 examples of what's

00:38:24.260 happening at Smith

00:38:25.040 and pushing back

00:38:26.420 against the faculty

00:38:27.340 and the student

00:38:28.380 body and shouting

00:38:29.380 out to the other

00:38:30.200 folks on Smith who

00:38:31.020 are sick of it,

00:38:32.220 saying, come talk to

00:38:33.040 me.

00:38:33.340 This is protected

00:38:34.340 discussion.

00:38:35.120 We cannot be fired

00:38:36.140 for pushing back

00:38:37.560 against this nonsense.

00:38:39.260 And she's leading

00:38:40.520 the charge.

00:38:41.040 Here's a sample of

00:38:42.020 what Jodi has to 0.99

00:38:42.760 say.

00:38:42.940 I ask that Smith 1.00

00:38:45.160 College stop

00:38:47.180 reducing my

00:38:48.800 personhood to a

00:38:50.200 racial category.

00:38:53.380 Stop telling me what

00:38:54.480 I must think and

00:38:55.140 feel about myself

00:38:56.060 because I feel like

00:38:58.340 you do that a lot.

00:38:59.720 I know you do that

00:39:00.560 a lot and I need you

00:39:02.060 to stop doing that.

00:39:04.320 Stop presuming to

00:39:05.480 know who I am or

00:39:06.260 what my culture is

00:39:07.320 based upon my skin

00:39:08.360 color because you

00:39:09.740 don't know that.

00:39:10.460 You don't know that

00:39:11.560 about anybody

00:39:12.760 except for yourself.

00:39:16.200 Stop asking me to

00:39:17.460 project stereotypes

00:39:18.360 and assumptions

00:39:19.120 onto others based

00:39:20.240 upon their skin

00:39:20.900 color because I

00:39:22.680 feel like that's

00:39:25.400 what you asked me

00:39:26.300 to do incessantly

00:39:27.420 over and over

00:39:29.620 again for the past

00:39:30.380 three years and

00:39:31.240 I'm not going to

00:39:33.400 do that.

00:39:34.420 Pretty great.

00:39:35.440 And listen to her.

00:39:36.160 It's so simple.

00:39:37.060 I'm just not going

00:39:37.860 to do that.

00:39:38.960 I just, I refuse.

00:39:41.420 This is one of the

00:39:42.200 ways forward.

00:39:42.740 A lot of us have

00:39:43.220 been talking about

00:39:43.740 what is the way

00:39:44.280 forward when you're

00:39:44.960 when your corporation

00:39:46.120 pushes you like this

00:39:47.100 to to judge everybody

00:39:48.560 based on pigmentation.

00:39:50.000 Well, Jody Shaw

00:39:51.100 says the answer is

00:39:52.040 I'm not going to do

00:39:53.300 that.

00:39:53.860 I love that.

00:39:55.220 She went on to say,

00:39:56.040 look, we have the

00:39:56.540 right to work in an

00:39:57.340 environment that is

00:39:58.040 free from the

00:39:59.280 ever-present terror

00:40:00.560 that any unverified

00:40:02.200 student allegation of

00:40:03.320 racism or any other

00:40:04.260 ism might crush our

00:40:06.140 reputation, ruin our

00:40:07.280 lives, and even

00:40:08.440 endanger us.

00:40:10.000 or our family

00:40:11.520 members.

00:40:12.620 And so I kind of

00:40:14.300 been thinking for a

00:40:14.940 while that sort of

00:40:15.560 using the law to

00:40:16.520 protect these

00:40:17.180 discussions and

00:40:18.360 people's right to

00:40:19.520 not be judged based

00:40:20.500 on skin color might be

00:40:22.460 the way forward in

00:40:23.240 this ridiculous

00:40:23.980 cancel culture and

00:40:24.940 shaming of people

00:40:25.900 based on pigmentation.

00:40:27.840 And I think Jody

00:40:28.500 Shaw is on the right

00:40:29.800 track.

00:40:30.700 So she's a devil 1.00

00:40:31.540 may care all-star

00:40:32.940 for a reason.

00:40:34.380 Okay.

00:40:34.640 Joining me now,

00:40:35.900 Crystal Ball and

00:40:36.820 Sagar and Jetty of

00:40:37.720 the Hills Rising.

00:40:39.320 Great to have you

00:40:40.020 here this morning,

00:40:40.580 guys.

00:40:40.880 Thank you for coming.

00:40:42.160 Oh, it's our

00:40:42.700 pleasure as always,

00:40:43.500 Megan.

00:40:43.800 Good to see you,

00:40:44.340 Megan.

00:40:44.860 So, OMG.

00:40:46.140 I mean.

00:40:47.480 That's pretty much,

00:40:48.280 that's my full

00:40:48.880 analysis.

00:40:49.540 That's it.

00:40:50.080 Right?

00:40:50.660 It's like, it was a

00:40:51.940 nail-biter.

00:40:52.620 It's still ongoing.

00:40:54.220 I'd love to start with

00:40:55.400 just where you think

00:40:56.640 we are right now and

00:40:57.840 how this likely shakes

00:40:59.360 out.

00:40:59.700 I usually start with

00:41:01.540 Crystal, but so as

00:41:02.840 not to be a sexist

00:41:03.540 pick, I'm going to

00:41:03.960 start with you,

00:41:04.480 Sagar.

00:41:04.820 You go.

00:41:06.020 Well, Megan, it's

00:41:07.080 1039 a.m.

00:41:08.660 here on the East

00:41:09.320 Coast as you and I

00:41:10.420 are talking.

00:41:11.560 Right now, it looks

00:41:12.580 like there are enough

00:41:13.580 votes for Biden to

00:41:15.020 pull it out with

00:41:15.700 extraordinarily small

00:41:17.760 margins in Michigan

00:41:19.840 and in Wisconsin,

00:41:21.440 Pennsylvania, and in

00:41:22.540 Arizona.

00:41:23.000 And he would actually

00:41:23.860 only need to win

00:41:24.780 Michigan and

00:41:26.020 Wisconsin and

00:41:26.920 Arizona in order to

00:41:27.960 eke out the

00:41:28.440 Electoral College

00:41:29.080 victory if Georgia

00:41:30.320 also comes in with

00:41:31.300 a small margin as

00:41:32.200 well.

00:41:32.460 But there's a lot

00:41:34.020 of lessons to be

00:41:35.040 learned here.

00:41:35.680 I mean, the Latino

00:41:36.460 overperformance for

00:41:37.560 Donald Trump is

00:41:38.720 nothing short of

00:41:39.960 astounding.

00:41:40.780 And something Crystal

00:41:41.740 and I have been

00:41:42.160 laughing about all

00:41:43.020 day is that the

00:41:44.020 only group that

00:41:45.240 Trump underperformed

00:41:46.560 with last night was

00:41:48.060 white men.

00:41:48.920 He overperformed

00:41:49.880 amongst black men,

00:41:51.300 black women, Latino

00:41:52.620 men, Latino women,

00:41:54.400 and white women. 1.00

00:41:55.540 I mean, could you

00:41:56.500 find an MSNBC analyst

00:41:58.100 who would have

00:41:58.480 predicted that one?

00:41:59.820 It totally ruins the

00:42:00.600 narrative.

00:42:02.460 Yeah, it's

00:42:03.560 incredible.

00:42:04.120 I mean, something I'm

00:42:05.080 personally obsessed with

00:42:06.080 is this Zapata County

00:42:07.740 down in Texas.

00:42:08.420 I'm from Texas, and

00:42:09.640 this is in the Rio

00:42:10.360 Grand Valley, a 95%

00:42:12.740 Hispanic district that

00:42:14.300 Hillary won 65 to 32

00:42:16.900 last time.

00:42:18.120 Trump won that county

00:42:19.520 by 52% of the vote

00:42:23.120 this time around.

00:42:23.860 I never in my lifetime

00:42:25.220 thought that I would

00:42:26.300 see something like that

00:42:27.600 happen.

00:42:27.840 He also won 47% of the

00:42:30.220 vote in Star County,

00:42:31.500 similar nearby in the

00:42:32.820 Rio Grande Valley, 95%

00:42:34.740 Hispanic, one of the 0.99

00:42:35.540 poorest districts in the

00:42:37.100 entire country, and a

00:42:39.280 section with new border

00:42:40.300 wall.

00:42:40.940 So again, these are just

00:42:42.000 these are things which

00:42:42.920 fly completely to the

00:42:44.540 narrative that the media

00:42:45.780 has presented here.

00:42:46.800 But Sagar, I was told

00:42:48.180 that the reason he won

00:42:49.460 with Hispanics, Latinas,

00:42:53.020 Latinos in Florida is 0.89

00:42:54.760 because they were all

00:42:55.540 Cuban-Americans who, by

00:42:56.520 the way, MSNBC explained

00:42:58.340 to me last night, are

00:42:59.080 actually white, and

00:43:00.200 you're not allowed to

00:43:00.760 refer to them as

00:43:01.320 Hispanics when they vote

00:43:02.160 for President Trump.

00:43:03.180 That's pretty much the

00:43:05.100 exception to being a

00:43:06.840 Hispanic.

00:43:07.340 You lose your right to

00:43:08.200 say you are one.

00:43:09.340 But these are not

00:43:10.620 Cuban-Americans you're 0.64

00:43:11.460 talking about in these

00:43:12.040 Texas counties.

00:43:13.340 No, not at all.

00:43:14.440 These are some, you

00:43:15.100 know, third, fourth,

00:43:15.940 fifth generation

00:43:16.760 Hispanic-Americans.

00:43:18.040 Many of them even

00:43:18.880 identify as white

00:43:20.000 Hispanic.

00:43:20.400 Again, these are things

00:43:21.400 which nobody in the

00:43:23.120 mainstream media is

00:43:24.120 capable of really

00:43:24.900 understanding, but

00:43:25.640 there's complex

00:43:26.240 dynamics, which is

00:43:27.120 that people do not

00:43:28.300 vote in monolith

00:43:29.180 groups.

00:43:29.960 They are motivated by

00:43:30.820 different issue areas

00:43:32.500 and the overall bet

00:43:34.040 that they were just

00:43:34.800 going to come in

00:43:35.620 because of quote-unquote

00:43:37.180 norms or going back

00:43:38.920 to normal and more

00:43:39.780 was a dramatic

00:43:40.840 miscalculation by the

00:43:42.500 Biden campaign.

00:43:43.300 Now, look, it worked

00:43:44.040 out for them in

00:43:44.560 Arizona.

00:43:45.120 We have to be honest

00:43:45.860 here.

00:43:46.040 It did work out for

00:43:46.880 them in Arizona,

00:43:47.920 largely, I think,

00:43:48.660 because they spent a

00:43:49.540 decent amount of money

00:43:50.340 in that state, but

00:43:51.620 they wrote off, or

00:43:52.760 they wanted to take

00:43:53.660 for granted Texas

00:43:54.420 Latinos last night,

00:43:55.740 and they dramatically

00:43:57.060 made a mistake.

00:43:58.680 They had a good get

00:43:59.460 out the vote.

00:43:59.980 The Democrats had a

00:44:00.600 good get out the vote

00:44:01.400 effort in in Arizona.

00:44:05.200 Can I just tell you,

00:44:06.240 as of right now, the

00:44:07.260 Trump team is saying

00:44:08.560 that they're going to

00:44:10.020 win Pennsylvania, that

00:44:11.160 they're confident.

00:44:11.860 And he is ahead a lot

00:44:13.240 in Pennsylvania right

00:44:14.160 now, but they still

00:44:15.000 have to count all the

00:44:16.040 mail-in votes, which

00:44:16.840 they weren't allowed to

00:44:17.800 count until yesterday,

00:44:19.980 starting yesterday.

00:44:21.060 So the Trump team

00:44:21.600 still thinks it's going

00:44:22.280 to win Pennsylvania,

00:44:22.900 but of course, that

00:44:23.660 isn't ballgame, because

00:44:24.940 since he lost Arizona,

00:44:26.060 or so it appears, he's

00:44:27.580 got to win Michigan.

00:44:29.500 He's got to win

00:44:30.080 Michigan.

00:44:30.980 And the Trump campaign

00:44:31.820 is saying that they

00:44:33.040 believe they will win

00:44:34.140 Georgia.

00:44:34.500 He needs that, too.

00:44:35.680 They believe they're

00:44:36.520 going to win Michigan.

00:44:37.740 They believe they're

00:44:38.360 going to win Nevada,

00:44:39.880 which I don't know

00:44:41.100 about that.

00:44:42.660 And they say they'll

00:44:44.080 win all of those if we

00:44:45.980 count all the legal

00:44:47.360 ballots.

00:44:48.480 If we count all the

00:44:49.120 legal ballots.

00:44:49.880 Now, I don't know

00:44:51.400 exactly what that

00:44:52.180 means, but Crystal, I

00:44:53.760 will say I understand

00:44:55.520 the legal issues they're

00:44:56.320 going to go after in

00:44:56.880 Pennsylvania because

00:44:58.060 they extended the

00:44:59.380 vote.

00:45:00.560 They've been already

00:45:01.520 fighting that one out

00:45:02.620 saying you can't take

00:45:04.500 mail-in ballots that

00:45:05.860 come after that are

00:45:07.860 postmarked on election

00:45:08.660 day and that aren't

00:45:09.680 read until after

00:45:10.420 election day.

00:45:11.180 And they are doing

00:45:12.580 that.

00:45:12.860 They lost that legal

00:45:13.600 fight.

00:45:14.500 They had similar fights

00:45:15.260 in other states that the

00:45:16.100 U.S. Supreme Court

00:45:16.700 said we're going to not

00:45:17.440 going to review that

00:45:18.220 now, but if this

00:45:19.660 becomes a thing where

00:45:20.640 we have a split between

00:45:21.940 the states and so on,

00:45:22.860 we might take it up.

00:45:23.880 We might.

00:45:24.340 And so, boy, that's

00:45:25.900 the Hail Mary.

00:45:26.660 If somehow the Trump

00:45:28.320 team manages to cancel

00:45:30.020 out the votes that

00:45:31.820 were mailed on

00:45:32.680 election day, but not

00:45:34.300 opened until after,

00:45:35.980 oh, my God, then this

00:45:37.000 country is in for some

00:45:38.280 sort of a hellhole week

00:45:39.680 of brutal, bloody

00:45:42.440 knuckle legal brawling.

00:45:44.760 Yeah.

00:45:44.960 And frankly, I don't

00:45:46.860 think that that is

00:45:47.820 likely to occur because

00:45:49.620 based on there isn't

00:45:51.480 much of a legal ground

00:45:52.540 to stand on in any

00:45:54.900 of these states, maybe

00:45:56.100 in Pennsylvania might

00:45:57.960 be the one where

00:45:58.680 there's the diciest

00:45:59.440 questions.

00:46:00.480 But given that they

00:46:02.080 lost Arizona, the fact

00:46:03.900 that Biden has now

00:46:04.840 come now has a narrow

00:46:06.200 lead in both Michigan

00:46:07.300 and Wisconsin that is

00:46:08.720 expected only to expand.

00:46:10.760 I think it's a pretty

00:46:11.920 tough landscape

00:46:12.880 ultimately for

00:46:13.960 President Trump.

00:46:14.760 I mean, look, the way

00:46:16.440 I look at last night's

00:46:17.400 results is sort of

00:46:18.520 pathetic all the way

00:46:19.320 around.

00:46:20.080 I mean, it's pathetic

00:46:20.740 for Donald Trump, an

00:46:21.780 incumbent president, to

00:46:22.920 lose to Joe Biden, who's

00:46:24.340 let's just say not at

00:46:25.340 sort of the apex of his

00:46:26.500 power and ability, who

00:46:28.020 ran on very little other

00:46:29.540 than like, I'm going to

00:46:30.860 wear a mask and not

00:46:31.940 tweet mean stuff.

00:46:33.000 That's pathetic for an

00:46:34.220 incumbent president to

00:46:35.100 lose to such a

00:46:35.920 lackluster message.

00:46:37.160 And it's pathetic for

00:46:38.360 Joe Biden to so

00:46:39.660 radically underperform

00:46:41.000 in key what Democrats

00:46:42.880 have really taken for

00:46:43.760 granted as this rising

00:46:45.060 coalition of the

00:46:45.920 Ascendant that they

00:46:46.780 thought was just going

00:46:47.540 to be with them no

00:46:48.380 matter what.

00:46:49.760 And the fact that he

00:46:51.200 is so radically

00:46:52.580 underperformed with some

00:46:53.840 of these communities is

00:46:55.240 pathetic on their front.

00:46:56.700 I really think a lot of

00:46:58.240 the analysis after the

00:46:59.560 fact is going to be,

00:47:00.480 look, it was close

00:47:01.340 because this is a very

00:47:02.360 divided country and it's

00:47:03.440 very divided electorate

00:47:04.540 and people were polarized

00:47:05.420 and it was what it was.

00:47:06.640 I don't buy that for one

00:47:08.140 second.

00:47:09.300 Either one of these

00:47:10.120 candidates could have

00:47:10.940 notched a landslide

00:47:12.140 victory if they

00:47:13.580 actually offered an

00:47:14.880 affirmative, clear,

00:47:17.120 positive economic

00:47:18.460 agenda for the country.

00:47:19.640 And the fact of the

00:47:20.260 matter is neither one

00:47:21.740 of them did.

00:47:22.920 On Joe Biden and the

00:47:23.980 Latino vote, this is

00:47:25.500 something we've been

00:47:26.120 talking about on Rising

00:47:27.380 for months and months

00:47:29.020 now.

00:47:30.000 Even back during the

00:47:31.260 Democratic primary

00:47:32.120 campaign, we would talk

00:47:33.200 to the Sanders campaign

00:47:34.360 and their chief advisor,

00:47:36.320 Chuck Rocha, who really

00:47:37.320 architected their strategy

00:47:38.720 with the Latino community

00:47:39.880 and said, look, it's not

00:47:41.620 rocket science here.

00:47:43.740 First of all, you have

00:47:44.620 to actually care and show

00:47:45.660 up and spend the

00:47:46.860 resources and start that

00:47:48.220 conversation, something

00:47:49.380 that the Biden campaign

00:47:50.320 did not do.

00:47:51.620 And second of all, yeah,

00:47:53.040 you're not going to get

00:47:53.960 there just by, you know,

00:47:55.160 throwing some diversity

00:47:56.040 on the top of the ticket

00:47:57.220 and thinking you can

00:47:58.000 pander to identity and

00:47:59.940 that that's going to be

00:48:00.760 enough.

00:48:01.580 The Sanders campaign was

00:48:02.800 extraordinarily popular with

00:48:04.300 Latinos because why? 1.00

00:48:05.860 They focus on bread and

00:48:06.880 butter issues, health care,

00:48:08.800 wages, jobs, and it

00:48:10.580 landed.

00:48:11.360 They invested the time

00:48:12.360 and the money and not

00:48:13.860 one person from the

00:48:15.460 Biden campaign bothered

00:48:16.660 to reach out to

00:48:17.960 Burning World to say, hey,

00:48:19.120 how'd you pull this off

00:48:20.060 and how might we do this

00:48:21.320 again?

00:48:22.140 It's no mystery here why

00:48:24.260 it was white suburban

00:48:25.240 voters who were most

00:48:26.680 enthusiastic about Joe

00:48:27.960 Biden and who will

00:48:28.660 ultimately, it looks

00:48:29.600 likely to give him

00:48:31.100 the presidency.

00:48:32.000 It's because that's who

00:48:32.940 they centered the entire

00:48:33.900 campaign around, this

00:48:34.860 whole restore the soul

00:48:36.160 of the nation or

00:48:37.020 whatever the, you

00:48:38.060 know, very sort of

00:48:38.920 generic messaging they

00:48:40.140 were putting out here.

00:48:41.400 Let's go back to normal.

00:48:43.040 That was all aimed

00:48:44.000 squarely at white

00:48:44.900 suburbanites and it

00:48:45.940 landed with the target

00:48:46.880 population and ignored

00:48:48.280 broad swaths of the

00:48:49.320 country.

00:48:50.280 I mean, what we didn't

00:48:51.020 see last night was a

00:48:51.960 complete repudiation of

00:48:53.340 the hideous, awful,

00:48:54.480 bigoted, racist, 0.76

00:48:55.540 xenophobic, sexist

00:48:56.600 Trump.

00:48:57.060 We did not see that.

00:48:58.060 And that's even the

00:48:59.020 Democrats that I was

00:48:59.800 listening to last night

00:49:00.760 were lamenting that,

00:49:02.700 you know, I think

00:49:03.280 Rachel Maddow was out

00:49:04.460 there saying there's

00:49:04.980 there's been no blue

00:49:05.900 wave.

00:49:06.380 There hasn't even been

00:49:06.980 a ripple.

00:49:08.020 And a lot of Democrats

00:49:08.880 were upset because they

00:49:09.820 wanted to see him done.

00:49:11.580 They wanted to see the

00:49:12.500 stiletto heel squishing

00:49:14.560 him into the dirt.

00:49:15.960 And what we saw instead

00:49:17.080 was he did incredibly

00:49:19.040 well with Hispanics, 0.92

00:49:20.520 improving his margins

00:49:21.420 markedly from 2016.

00:49:23.520 He did well with the

00:49:24.980 black voters.

00:49:26.260 Charles Blow was

00:49:27.380 tweeting out today how

00:49:29.360 black men are in 1.00

00:49:31.140 greater and greater

00:49:32.000 numbers voting for the

00:49:32.980 Republican candidate.

00:49:33.700 It was 5% for McCain.

00:49:35.020 It was 11% for Romney.

00:49:36.180 It was 13% for Donald

00:49:37.240 Trump at 16, 18% for

00:49:39.280 Donald Trump in 2020,

00:49:40.520 going up after being

00:49:41.860 told for four years

00:49:43.200 that he hates black

00:49:44.440 people.

00:49:45.140 He loves white

00:49:45.720 supremacists.

00:49:46.680 He praised Klansmen.

00:49:48.160 You know, like that and

00:49:49.400 on and on it went.

00:49:50.180 The latest exit poll

00:49:51.100 actually just showed that

00:49:52.040 with LGBT community,

00:49:53.840 too, he got 20% of them,

00:49:56.260 which is double what he

00:49:57.040 got in 16.

00:49:58.160 I mean, my takeaway from

00:49:59.140 that is, oh, by the

00:50:00.560 way, Charles Blow,

00:50:01.200 notwithstanding that 18%

00:50:02.740 of the black men voted

00:50:03.680 for Trump.

00:50:04.100 His takeaway last night

00:50:05.380 was we are surrounded

00:50:07.200 by racists.

00:50:08.120 That's actually his

00:50:08.900 takeaway to this morning.

00:50:09.840 We are surrounded by

00:50:10.980 racists.

00:50:12.300 So to me, you tell me,

00:50:14.200 I think this this

00:50:15.160 incessant focused

00:50:16.720 focus by the Democrats

00:50:18.080 on identity and name

00:50:20.300 calling and dismissal of

00:50:22.040 anybody's personhood

00:50:23.220 because they

00:50:24.640 whatever, you know,

00:50:25.960 they said something

00:50:27.180 about whatever issue

00:50:29.300 that the Democrats

00:50:29.900 didn't like.

00:50:30.420 And in Trump,

00:50:30.940 there's a long list.

00:50:32.160 It's done.

00:50:33.280 It didn't work.

00:50:34.400 It was rejected.

00:50:35.260 If I could just pick up

00:50:36.840 on this point,

00:50:37.560 because this is something

00:50:38.300 I've been saying for a while.

00:50:40.400 When Kamala Harris was put

00:50:41.960 on the Democratic ticket,

00:50:43.480 what did the media tell us?

00:50:45.100 They said, oh,

00:50:46.460 this is going to drive up

00:50:48.260 the numbers with young voters

00:50:50.300 and with minority voters

00:50:51.880 in particular.

00:50:53.260 Why?

00:50:53.760 Not because of her policy

00:50:55.160 stances,

00:50:56.160 not because of what she

00:50:57.140 might do as vice president

00:50:58.700 simply based on her identity.

00:51:01.040 Now, not only was there

00:51:02.240 zero basis for that belief,

00:51:04.460 but there was actually

00:51:05.460 negative evidence

00:51:06.820 for that view.

00:51:08.080 You might recall

00:51:09.000 Kamala Harris ran

00:51:10.440 in the Democratic primary

00:51:11.440 and she did not do

00:51:12.420 particularly well

00:51:13.280 with any of those demographics.

00:51:15.240 That's why she wasn't

00:51:16.340 the Democratic nominee.

00:51:17.940 So I would be hopeful

00:51:20.580 that somebody in the Democratic

00:51:22.640 Party would look at this

00:51:23.900 and say, look,

00:51:24.700 these hollow identity politics

00:51:27.000 divorced from any policy

00:51:29.380 whatsoever

00:51:30.120 and what it means

00:51:30.860 for your life

00:51:31.660 is completely dead

00:51:33.500 and broken.

00:51:34.300 Do I think they're actually

00:51:35.220 going to do that?

00:51:36.080 No, I do not.

00:51:36.840 Because ultimately,

00:51:37.980 look again,

00:51:38.640 and I don't want to,

00:51:39.420 you know,

00:51:39.960 I don't want to oversell

00:51:41.880 Trump's performance

00:51:42.700 or undersell Biden's.

00:51:43.820 Ultimately, I think Biden

00:51:44.840 is going to be

00:51:45.260 the next president.

00:51:46.480 And weeks from now,

00:51:47.260 Democrats are going

00:51:47.860 to look at this and go,

00:51:48.760 well, that was nerve wracking,

00:51:49.800 but we got to win.

00:51:50.840 So they're going to forget

00:51:52.100 any potential lessons

00:51:53.460 that they should learn

00:51:54.580 here.

00:51:55.160 But make no mistake,

00:51:56.760 if you base a party

00:51:58.260 just around college

00:51:59.700 educated voters,

00:52:01.160 this is a country

00:52:02.080 where two thirds

00:52:03.120 of Americans

00:52:03.720 do not go to college.

00:52:05.660 How are those numbers

00:52:06.680 going to work out

00:52:07.400 for you ultimately

00:52:08.340 down the road

00:52:09.160 if you allow this

00:52:10.280 realignment

00:52:10.860 to continue to occur?

00:52:12.560 And I also want to say,

00:52:13.920 there's nothing,

00:52:14.920 as Democrats are learning,

00:52:16.580 Republicans also need

00:52:17.500 to keep in mind,

00:52:18.760 there is nothing

00:52:19.660 set in stone

00:52:20.760 about the way

00:52:21.820 that these coalitions

00:52:22.800 are moving.

00:52:24.180 Working class voters

00:52:25.160 of all different races

00:52:26.380 could come back home

00:52:27.500 to the Democratic Party.

00:52:28.740 They could continue

00:52:29.400 to drift over

00:52:30.140 to the Republican Party.

00:52:31.260 This isn't static

00:52:32.060 and it's not set

00:52:33.040 and you can't take people

00:52:34.600 for granted.

00:52:35.500 To me,

00:52:36.240 that is the bottom line

00:52:37.240 above all else.

00:52:39.060 Sagar,

00:52:39.480 for Republicans out there

00:52:40.720 who are feeling dejected

00:52:42.560 that, you know,

00:52:43.440 Trump may have lost

00:52:44.320 this thing,

00:52:45.180 there is some good news

00:52:46.520 when it comes

00:52:47.100 to the Senate

00:52:47.700 because we would have

00:52:48.920 been looking

00:52:49.280 at a very different

00:52:50.120 landscape

00:52:51.080 if the Democrats

00:52:52.060 had won the Senate,

00:52:54.440 the White House

00:52:55.160 and increased

00:52:55.760 their margin

00:52:56.280 in the House.

00:52:57.200 They actually,

00:52:58.180 the Republicans

00:52:58.820 increased their margin

00:52:59.720 in the House.

00:53:00.420 One,

00:53:00.700 yet another thing

00:53:01.620 the pollsters

00:53:02.100 completely blew

00:53:02.960 and the Senate races

00:53:04.620 are interesting to me

00:53:05.380 because if you look

00:53:06.200 at the numbers,

00:53:07.400 the Republicans

00:53:08.300 got killed on spending

00:53:09.660 in the Senate races.

00:53:11.220 The Democrats

00:53:11.600 spent 726 million bucks

00:53:13.600 to the GOP's

00:53:14.460 423 million.

00:53:16.800 They were projected

00:53:18.320 of course to lose

00:53:19.520 right by all the

00:53:20.340 know-it-all pollsters.

00:53:21.940 You look at some

00:53:22.860 of the outstanding races

00:53:23.680 this morning,

00:53:24.180 Susan Collins in Maine

00:53:25.040 who everybody said

00:53:25.600 was done.

00:53:26.800 She's up 51 to 42 percent 0.80

00:53:29.020 over her challenger 0.94

00:53:30.440 and most prognosticators

00:53:32.740 this morning are saying

00:53:33.840 the Republicans

00:53:34.860 are going to hold

00:53:35.340 the Senate

00:53:35.680 and we're going to have

00:53:36.580 four years

00:53:37.660 of divided government.

00:53:38.800 So what does that look like?

00:53:40.240 It's incredible.

00:53:41.140 I mean,

00:53:41.480 Chuck Schumer,

00:53:42.200 I don't even know

00:53:43.180 how he must be feeling today.

00:53:44.740 Just to give it

00:53:45.440 his perspective,

00:53:46.620 they spent a collective

00:53:48.000 200 million dollars

00:53:50.340 to lose by a combined

00:53:52.380 35 points

00:53:53.940 to Lindsey Graham

00:53:55.180 and Mitch McConnell.

00:53:56.360 What kind of money

00:53:57.280 allocation is that?

00:53:58.640 It just goes to show

00:53:59.540 how much dumb money

00:54:01.000 chased dumb polling.

00:54:02.500 I mean,

00:54:02.680 we were told

00:54:03.300 Jamie Harrison

00:54:04.260 was tied with Lindsey Graham.

00:54:06.140 He lost by 17 points.

00:54:07.920 That's the exact same margin

00:54:09.400 that the previous

00:54:10.620 challenger to Lindsey Graham

00:54:11.880 who was a little-known

00:54:13.080 state senator lost by.

00:54:14.440 That's just incredible.

00:54:15.440 So $100 million

00:54:16.520 basically made

00:54:17.720 zero difference

00:54:18.920 whatsoever.

00:54:19.940 And it's the same story

00:54:21.160 across the entire

00:54:22.540 GOP Senate.

00:54:23.660 Cal Cunningham

00:54:24.460 underperforming

00:54:25.680 relative to Tom Till.

00:54:26.700 Tom Till is actually

00:54:27.440 outperforming

00:54:28.240 President Trump

00:54:29.060 in North Carolina.

00:54:30.000 That is something

00:54:30.420 nobody thought

00:54:31.340 was going to be happening.

00:54:32.500 Nobody.

00:54:33.120 Susan Collins

00:54:33.840 is the same story.

00:54:35.280 I mean,

00:54:35.520 she was supposed to be

00:54:36.700 a dead woman walking

00:54:38.080 and now it looks like

00:54:39.120 she could be walking

00:54:39.720 right into the chairman

00:54:40.980 of the Appropriations Committee

00:54:42.260 in the Senate.

00:54:43.320 It's, again,

00:54:44.260 incredible to see.

00:54:46.060 I think that the wins

00:54:47.360 in the Senate

00:54:48.040 and the down-ballot wins

00:54:49.380 are just, again,

00:54:50.820 this kind of dramatic

00:54:51.980 realignment.

00:54:53.120 I saw, you know,

00:54:54.260 Hispanic,

00:54:55.260 these Hispanic districts

00:54:56.320 and more pro-GOP

00:54:57.880 Hispanic voters

00:54:58.760 and others winning

00:55:00.200 all across the state

00:55:01.420 of Texas

00:55:01.840 in some of these

00:55:02.440 House races.

00:55:03.540 Will Hurd's seat

00:55:04.240 was picked up

00:55:04.840 by a Republican

00:55:05.540 that wasn't necessarily

00:55:06.580 something that was

00:55:07.820 in the card.

00:55:08.900 So, overall,

00:55:10.140 the down-ballot story

00:55:11.120 is just as interesting

00:55:12.300 as the presidential race

00:55:13.400 and, if anything,

00:55:14.320 the polling miss

00:55:14.940 was even bigger

00:55:15.860 this time around.

00:55:17.540 I saw you tweeting

00:55:18.500 today about how wrong

00:55:20.340 the pollsters got it

00:55:21.280 and you were just,

00:55:22.840 you sounded fired up

00:55:24.260 about just,

00:55:24.860 just how,

00:55:26.100 how misled we were,

00:55:27.880 you know,

00:55:28.140 and Trafalgar didn't

00:55:29.180 get it all right either.

00:55:30.220 He thought Trump

00:55:30.700 was going to win,

00:55:31.440 but at least

00:55:32.520 he had it more right

00:55:33.940 in that he accounted

00:55:35.320 for the shy Trump voter

00:55:36.560 and tried to understand

00:55:37.760 flyover country

00:55:38.640 and Republican voters

00:55:39.700 in a way it does not appear

00:55:41.440 the mainstream pollsters did.

00:55:43.140 Yeah, I'm really furious

00:55:44.560 about it.

00:55:45.060 I mean,

00:55:45.260 we place a significant

00:55:46.400 amount of trust

00:55:47.200 in these companies

00:55:48.180 and in these pollsters

00:55:49.420 and hundreds of,

00:55:50.580 millions of dollars

00:55:51.540 that the news organization

00:55:53.000 spent and,

00:55:54.100 look, I mean,

00:55:54.580 Wisconsin was supposedly

00:55:55.720 told to us by ABC News

00:55:57.100 was plus 17 points.

00:55:59.640 17 points.

00:56:00.480 That's ludicrous.

00:56:01.360 I mean,

00:56:01.580 it's barely

00:56:02.180 within a one point,

00:56:03.540 it's a 20,000 vote margin,

00:56:04.980 which is exactly

00:56:05.580 what it was

00:56:06.160 in 2016,

00:56:07.560 except this time around,

00:56:08.800 it looks like Joe Biden

00:56:09.840 is doing a little bit better.

00:56:12.000 And so,

00:56:12.680 in terms of the polling industry,

00:56:14.120 I am just beginning,

00:56:15.220 and I said this today

00:56:15.960 on our show,

00:56:16.660 which is that

00:56:17.200 I do not think

00:56:18.100 it is possible

00:56:18.820 in order to poll properly

00:56:20.440 with a figure

00:56:21.260 like Donald Trump,

00:56:22.140 and I would conversely say

00:56:23.120 somebody like Bernie Sanders.

00:56:24.480 These people

00:56:25.080 who just do not track

00:56:26.420 onto the traditional

00:56:27.620 political system,

00:56:28.780 who excite

00:56:29.580 various different types

00:56:30.620 of voters,

00:56:31.360 who are not necessarily

00:56:32.600 baked in,

00:56:33.300 and that pollsters

00:56:34.300 have actually

00:56:34.700 gotten lucky

00:56:35.420 just because of

00:56:36.480 how standardized

00:56:37.220 our politics have been

00:56:38.680 over the last 30 years,

00:56:40.180 and that when Trump

00:56:40.820 came along,

00:56:41.780 he realigned the parties,

00:56:43.260 but he also realigned

00:56:44.200 the way that we're

00:56:44.760 going to have to

00:56:45.080 think about polling.

00:56:45.900 I'm never going to

00:56:46.460 look at it the same

00:56:47.220 again after this election.

00:56:48.720 No, me neither.

00:56:50.180 I mean, we were told

00:56:51.600 for so many years,

00:56:52.340 trust the polls,

00:56:52.940 trust the polls,

00:56:53.600 and they did tend

00:56:54.280 to be right,

00:56:54.940 and then came Trump,

00:56:56.440 and everything has changed.

00:56:58.200 No one's figured out

00:56:59.020 how to do it,

00:56:59.600 and now we'll be

00:57:00.300 equally confused

00:57:01.040 four years from now

00:57:01.840 because no matter

00:57:03.120 what happens

00:57:04.220 over the next few days

00:57:05.260 about Trump v. Biden,

00:57:06.800 Trump's not going

00:57:07.300 to be on the ballot.

00:57:08.700 I don't think.

00:57:10.480 I guess if he loses,

00:57:12.680 if he officially loses

00:57:13.940 this one,

00:57:14.740 I suppose he could

00:57:15.360 come back.

00:57:16.500 I don't.

00:57:16.680 But anyway,

00:57:18.320 we don't know

00:57:18.980 how they're going

00:57:19.320 to be able to poll

00:57:20.200 future Republican candidates

00:57:21.620 or whether the Democrats

00:57:22.860 will just try to make

00:57:23.560 every future Republican

00:57:24.720 a Trump.

00:57:25.140 Remember,

00:57:25.340 they tried to tell us

00:57:25.960 Mitt Romney was a sexist pig

00:57:27.380 because he said

00:57:27.980 binders full of women,

00:57:29.440 which was just an attempt

00:57:30.620 to say I have binders

00:57:31.840 full of resumes from women,

00:57:33.040 and from that,

00:57:34.060 they spent weeks

00:57:35.000 saying he was a sexist jerk

00:57:36.580 who couldn't be elected.

00:57:37.880 All right,

00:57:38.020 let me ask you

00:57:38.400 a quick question,

00:57:38.960 though,

00:57:39.060 because everyone

00:57:40.720 who's been on the show

00:57:41.640 is saying the same thing,

00:57:43.660 which is it doesn't

00:57:45.080 look good for Trump.

00:57:45.660 But I do want to spend

00:57:47.300 just one minute on Michigan

00:57:48.300 because it was weird

00:57:49.940 because if Trump,

00:57:51.480 I think he looks good

00:57:52.540 in Pennsylvania

00:57:53.040 and if he could win Michigan

00:57:54.260 and hold Georgia

00:57:56.020 and yeah,

00:57:59.240 just Georgia

00:57:59.860 and North Carolina,

00:58:00.680 he could still win

00:58:02.040 and he looks good

00:58:03.280 in North Carolina, too.

00:58:04.100 So it's really to me,

00:58:05.040 it's about Michigan

00:58:05.820 and Pennsylvania.

00:58:06.280 But Michigan,

00:58:07.200 he was up in Michigan

00:58:09.060 last night.

00:58:09.840 He had 2.2 million

00:58:11.280 and Joe Biden

00:58:11.820 had 1.99 million,

00:58:13.340 just rounding.

00:58:13.800 And then like in an instant,

00:58:16.020 all these new votes came in

00:58:17.360 and Biden went up

00:58:18.180 to 2.13 million

00:58:20.100 and Trump stayed

00:58:22.000 exactly the same.

00:58:24.040 So a bunch of new vote

00:58:24.880 came in

00:58:25.420 and every single vote

00:58:27.400 went for Joe Biden.

00:58:29.520 And it's not just

00:58:30.580 a conspiracy theory

00:58:31.540 with like crazies

00:58:32.780 on the right saying,

00:58:33.580 ah,

00:58:34.240 legitimate folks today

00:58:35.600 are saying

00:58:36.100 we need to ask some questions

00:58:38.020 about how that happened.

00:58:39.300 Michigan is too important

00:58:40.360 to ignore

00:58:41.140 what we saw

00:58:42.520 with the vote there.

00:58:43.240 Any thoughts on it?

00:58:44.780 I mean,

00:58:45.560 what we saw

00:58:46.220 is Detroit coming in

00:58:47.440 and coming in

00:58:48.760 in a way

00:58:49.120 that was overwhelmingly

00:58:50.440 for Joe Biden

00:58:51.920 and fairly consistent

00:58:52.760 with past trends.

00:58:54.020 So I didn't see anything

00:58:55.680 suspect in the data

00:58:57.020 that was coming in.

00:58:57.780 And in fact,

00:58:58.760 look,

00:58:58.980 one of the things

00:58:59.520 that we try to prepare

00:59:00.460 people for on our show

00:59:01.860 was specifically

00:59:02.740 in the states

00:59:03.640 of Wisconsin,

00:59:04.880 Michigan,

00:59:05.340 and Pennsylvania

00:59:06.020 that it was very likely

00:59:07.860 because of the nature

00:59:08.800 of how they count

00:59:09.580 how they count

00:59:10.460 their ballots

00:59:11.080 that you would see

00:59:12.400 a very strong

00:59:13.620 Trump early vote

00:59:15.140 because those

00:59:15.840 are the election day votes

00:59:17.020 which we knew

00:59:17.540 in person was likely

00:59:18.440 to be more GOP

00:59:19.600 and that that would

00:59:20.760 reverse over time

00:59:21.980 as the mail-in ballots

00:59:23.180 were counted.

00:59:23.960 And that's exactly

00:59:24.700 what we're seeing

00:59:25.240 in Wisconsin

00:59:25.760 is what we're seeing

00:59:26.860 in Michigan.

00:59:28.000 And,

00:59:28.260 you know,

00:59:29.400 I'm not the super

00:59:30.800 number cruncher

00:59:31.580 but based on the analysis

00:59:32.620 that I've seen,

00:59:33.820 I actually think Biden

00:59:34.700 is in fairly decent position

00:59:35.920 to ultimately win Pennsylvania

00:59:37.480 based on what is still out

00:59:39.980 and what he's been performing

00:59:41.400 in the mail-in ballot so far.

00:59:42.960 So we'll see on that one.

00:59:44.420 But,

00:59:44.640 you know,

00:59:45.020 with Arizona in the bag,

00:59:46.220 he ultimately doesn't

00:59:47.040 have to get Pennsylvania.

00:59:48.840 And he's also got a good shot,

00:59:50.840 even maybe perhaps favored

00:59:52.680 in Georgia

00:59:53.960 because of a significant chunk

00:59:55.880 of the Atlanta vote

00:59:57.340 is still out

00:59:58.300 and still remains

00:59:59.120 to be counted.

01:00:00.160 So,

01:00:00.740 so I think that's

01:00:02.200 what the landscape looks like.

01:00:03.520 And I didn't see anything

01:00:04.740 suspect or suspicious

01:00:05.880 in the way

01:00:06.420 that the votes

01:00:06.920 came in ultimately.

01:00:08.200 Yeah,

01:00:08.320 I think that's true.

01:00:10.020 So what do you think

01:00:10.980 happens now,

01:00:11.780 Sagar?

01:00:12.100 What,

01:00:12.380 what,

01:00:12.580 what happens now?

01:00:13.900 If we,

01:00:14.220 if this week plays out

01:00:15.240 and there's,

01:00:16.600 you know,

01:00:17.420 the legal challenges

01:00:18.220 may go,

01:00:18.900 but there's going to be

01:00:19.720 some decisive information

01:00:20.860 coming out of

01:00:21.580 at least a couple

01:00:22.640 of these states

01:00:23.400 that should,

01:00:24.060 should tell us

01:00:25.160 what's going on.

01:00:26.640 What happens next?

01:00:28.220 I just saw the Biden

01:00:29.220 campaign manager say

01:00:30.580 that,

01:00:31.080 Jen O'Malley-Dillon 0.99

01:00:31.840 say that

01:00:32.520 they expect to hear

01:00:33.660 from the former

01:00:34.180 vice president

01:00:34.840 sometime

01:00:35.340 later today

01:00:36.520 and that they

01:00:37.020 fully expect

01:00:37.840 that he will be

01:00:38.740 the clear winner

01:00:39.600 as president

01:00:40.700 by this afternoon.

01:00:41.880 So that's what

01:00:42.640 they're saying publicly.

01:00:43.580 That's quite a

01:00:44.560 declarative statement.

01:00:45.500 Obviously,

01:00:45.800 the Trump campaign

01:00:46.600 is throwing some

01:00:47.880 water on that.

01:00:48.740 However,

01:00:49.080 I would say

01:00:49.600 there is no instant

01:00:50.540 recount in Wisconsin

01:00:51.700 as they were,

01:00:53.380 are trying to claim here.

01:00:54.460 It's essentially

01:00:54.860 the same margin

01:00:55.700 that Trump won

01:00:56.800 last time around

01:00:57.720 and there wasn't

01:00:58.260 a recount then.

01:00:59.380 It's going to be

01:00:59.860 the same story,

01:01:00.720 I think,

01:01:00.920 in Michigan

01:01:01.480 and Pennsylvania.

01:01:02.100 I think we're not

01:01:02.860 going to know Pennsylvania

01:01:03.700 for two days,

01:01:05.220 but if Biden

01:01:06.280 does begin to take

01:01:07.280 the lead there

01:01:07.920 in the mail-in ballots,

01:01:09.420 then I do think

01:01:10.520 it is game over.

01:01:11.700 In terms of an actual

01:01:12.840 concession,

01:01:13.860 I think we're probably

01:01:14.520 a week or so away

01:01:15.500 from that

01:01:15.880 because there's going

01:01:16.560 to be exhaustive

01:01:18.220 last-minute efforts.

01:01:19.560 And look,

01:01:20.080 it's just true.

01:01:20.820 Joe Biden did not run away

01:01:22.120 with this election.

01:01:23.340 He put himself

01:01:23.960 in a precarious situation.

01:01:25.760 I don't doubt

01:01:26.700 the Trump campaign

01:01:27.560 and the GOP

01:01:28.140 is going to fight

01:01:28.960 like hell for it, 0.65

01:01:29.820 but right now

01:01:30.600 I think they're

01:01:31.000 the underdogs.

01:01:32.700 And Crystal, 0.94

01:01:33.120 what happens

01:01:33.820 as you cleverly

01:01:36.620 phrased it,

01:01:38.480 if Joe Biden

01:01:39.540 ascends to the presidency

01:01:41.480 while, quote,

01:01:42.860 not at the apex

01:01:43.900 of his power

01:01:45.760 and ability?

01:01:46.920 That's so gentle.

01:01:48.320 You're very diplomatic.

01:01:50.220 What happens?

01:01:51.140 I mean,

01:01:51.320 I think a lot of us

01:01:52.020 are looking at him

01:01:53.020 thinking,

01:01:54.120 can he do this?

01:01:55.600 Is he up to the job?

01:01:56.600 Are we really about to

01:01:57.640 swear in

01:01:58.900 President Kamala Harris?

01:02:01.660 I mean,

01:02:02.320 here's the reality,

01:02:03.480 Megan.

01:02:04.300 The Biden campaign

01:02:05.260 promised next to nothing

01:02:06.540 in this campaign.

01:02:07.940 As I said,

01:02:08.540 he promised to wear a mask,

01:02:10.140 beat Donald Trump,

01:02:11.040 wear a mask,

01:02:11.700 and not send mean tweets.

01:02:13.020 I think he will 100%

01:02:14.500 be able to live up

01:02:15.720 to those modest expectations.

01:02:18.220 And look,

01:02:18.780 a lot of analysis

01:02:19.660 is like,

01:02:20.220 oh my God,

01:02:20.660 this is so bad

01:02:21.400 for Joe Biden

01:02:22.120 that he's going to have

01:02:22.940 a Republican Senate.

01:02:24.280 Likely,

01:02:24.760 those are,

01:02:25.260 you know,

01:02:25.480 not certain yet,

01:02:26.360 but looks likely

01:02:27.000 that it'll be

01:02:27.480 a Republican Senate.

01:02:28.700 I don't see it that way.

01:02:30.260 He ran on a pledge

01:02:31.780 to not fundamentally

01:02:32.660 transform anything,

01:02:33.700 and now he's got

01:02:34.420 the perfect excuse.

01:02:35.680 I mean,

01:02:35.920 Republicans are keeping him,

01:02:37.600 blocking him

01:02:38.220 from being able

01:02:38.940 to do anything

01:02:39.660 of significance,

01:02:40.440 and there's nothing

01:02:41.580 Democrats love better

01:02:42.520 than a good excuse

01:02:43.400 for their utter impotence

01:02:45.060 and inability

01:02:45.760 to actually affect

01:02:46.960 meaningful change.

01:02:47.880 So I think it's

01:02:48.500 a pretty good setup

01:02:49.180 for him

01:02:49.660 and a relatively

01:02:50.800 depressing one

01:02:51.720 for anyone

01:02:52.660 who's looking

01:02:53.220 looking for

01:02:53.500 some significant

01:02:54.280 reform,

01:02:55.660 wages lifted,

01:02:57.000 better health care,

01:02:58.180 or any of the sort of,

01:02:59.480 you know,

01:02:59.760 the issues that really

01:03:00.660 do unite Americans

01:03:01.820 across partisan race

01:03:04.040 and gender lines, 0.84

01:03:05.900 geographic lines,

01:03:06.900 education lines,

01:03:07.700 et cetera.

01:03:09.480 Well,

01:03:09.920 I'm sure a lot of Republicans

01:03:10.820 just heaved a sigh

01:03:11.560 of relief

01:03:11.940 in response

01:03:12.420 to utter impotence

01:03:13.400 for the next four years.

01:03:14.460 I'm sure they're not

01:03:15.240 looking for big

01:03:15.900 government action

01:03:16.660 if Biden takes over.

01:03:18.560 You guys,

01:03:18.840 such thoughtful analysis.

01:03:20.060 Love hearing from you.

01:03:21.100 Thank you so much

01:03:21.620 for coming on.

01:03:22.700 Thanks, Megan.

01:03:23.320 Our pleasure, Megan.

01:03:25.880 Wow.

01:03:26.540 Gosh,

01:03:26.960 what a situation, right?

01:03:28.160 It's like,

01:03:28.720 we're going to have

01:03:29.520 real answers soon,

01:03:30.580 but we know a lot more

01:03:31.700 right now

01:03:32.140 than we did

01:03:32.680 this time yesterday.

01:03:34.480 And,

01:03:34.800 you know,

01:03:35.700 we're just trying

01:03:36.120 to call it straight

01:03:37.140 for you,

01:03:37.700 not putting a thumb

01:03:38.800 on the scale,

01:03:39.300 just trying to call it

01:03:39.920 like we see it

01:03:40.440 with the data coming in

01:03:41.500 and assess what it means.

01:03:44.640 Assess what it means

01:03:46.160 not just for,

01:03:47.000 you know,

01:03:47.160 the outcome,

01:03:47.740 but for the country,

01:03:48.940 right?

01:03:49.600 I personally like

01:03:50.600 divided government.

01:03:51.460 I've always liked

01:03:52.220 divided government.

01:03:52.820 I think Americans

01:03:53.380 like divided government.

01:03:54.400 I think they usually

01:03:55.120 correct it

01:03:56.100 if it goes

01:03:57.060 single party

01:03:58.100 for too long

01:03:58.700 because you do see

01:03:59.580 sweeping changes

01:04:00.240 that can be a little scary.

01:04:01.280 That's how we got Obamacare.

01:04:02.360 People were like,

01:04:03.040 whoa,

01:04:03.460 what did we do?

01:04:04.160 Wait a minute.

01:04:04.620 And they bounced

01:04:05.360 all those Democrats out

01:04:06.340 two years later

01:04:07.360 and the Republicans

01:04:07.900 took control

01:04:08.540 and undid some stuff.

01:04:10.860 So we're going

01:04:12.300 to know more,

01:04:12.900 but I just think,

01:04:14.900 hold on,

01:04:15.560 because the thing

01:04:16.640 I want to tell

01:04:17.420 everybody today

01:04:18.380 is the same thing

01:04:19.700 I wanted to tell them

01:04:20.280 four years ago.

01:04:21.600 We're fine.

01:04:22.860 No matter who

01:04:23.680 actually won this,

01:04:24.500 whether it's Biden

01:04:24.980 or Trump,

01:04:25.380 we're fine.

01:04:28.160 Thankfully,

01:04:28.700 our lawmakers

01:04:29.260 don't have that much

01:04:30.440 power over us.

01:04:31.200 They really don't.

01:04:31.920 They definitely

01:04:33.060 touch our lives

01:04:33.780 in some ways,

01:04:34.640 but I think more

01:04:35.420 and more in this country,

01:04:36.180 we are leaning

01:04:36.800 toward private industry

01:04:37.780 and toward individual

01:04:38.840 responsibility

01:04:39.740 and decision making.

01:04:41.220 And there's been

01:04:41.940 a collective effort,

01:04:43.380 at least on the right,

01:04:44.160 to squeeze government

01:04:44.900 out of our lives

01:04:45.640 as much as we could

01:04:46.460 over the past

01:04:47.340 10, 15, 20 years.

01:04:49.760 And, you know,

01:04:51.300 you're responsible

01:04:51.960 for you.

01:04:52.840 There's very little

01:04:53.680 that Joe Biden

01:04:54.400 directly can do

01:04:55.240 to affect your life

01:04:56.160 and same with Donald Trump.

01:04:57.360 Now, we did see

01:04:57.900 some things

01:04:58.420 under Trump, of course,

01:05:00.060 but the country's fine

01:05:01.600 and will remain fine

01:05:03.160 no matter what

01:05:03.720 the final tally is

01:05:05.360 on these votes.

01:05:08.140 Look,

01:05:08.600 one thing you might

01:05:10.360 not be fine on,

01:05:11.140 just to round back,

01:05:11.920 is your cybersecurity.

01:05:13.200 Was that a smooth transition?

01:05:14.760 No.

01:05:15.600 I'm still figuring it out.

01:05:17.340 But I do want to

01:05:18.200 tell you one more time

01:05:19.320 before we go

01:05:19.880 about Norton 360

01:05:21.080 with LifeLock

01:05:21.540 because, as they say,

01:05:23.100 no one can prevent

01:05:23.680 all cybercrime

01:05:24.500 and identity theft

01:05:25.300 or monitor every transaction

01:05:26.640 at every business,

01:05:27.440 but Norton 360

01:05:28.360 with LifeLock

01:05:28.820 is a powerful ally

01:05:29.780 for your cybersecurity.

01:05:30.900 And if you sign up today,

01:05:32.220 you'll save 25% or more.

01:05:34.180 25% or more

01:05:34.980 off your first year

01:05:35.580 just by going

01:05:36.480 to norton.com

01:05:37.340 slash MK.

01:05:38.420 That's 25% 0.67

01:05:39.600 off Norton 360

01:05:40.560 with LifeLock

01:05:41.320 at norton.com

01:05:42.560 slash MK.

01:05:44.680 We will be back

01:05:45.860 later this week

01:05:47.300 with more analysis

01:05:48.140 and hopefully

01:05:48.820 more results.

01:05:52.280 Thanks for listening

01:05:53.160 to The Megyn Kelly Show.

01:05:54.500 No BS,

01:05:55.720 no agenda,

01:05:56.540 and no fear.

01:05:58.720 The Megyn Kelly Show

01:05:59.860 is a Devil May Care

01:06:00.640 media production

01:06:01.360 in collaboration

01:06:02.140 with Red Seat Ventures.

01:06:03.460 When I found out

01:06:06.520 my friend got a great deal

01:06:07.940 on a wool coat

01:06:08.700 from Winners,

01:06:09.560 I started wondering,

01:06:11.220 is every fabulous item

01:06:12.820 I see from Winners?

01:06:14.300 Like that woman over there 1.00

01:06:15.600 with the designer jeans.

01:06:17.040 Are those from Winners?

01:06:18.580 Ooh,

01:06:19.200 or those beautiful gold earrings?

01:06:21.040 Did she pay full price?

01:06:22.360 Or that leather tote?

01:06:23.400 Or that cashmere sweater?

01:06:24.620 Or those knee-high boots?

01:06:26.060 That dress?

01:06:26.840 That jacket?

01:06:27.520 Those shoes?

01:06:28.540 Is anyone paying

01:06:29.740 full price for anything?

01:06:31.540 Stop wondering.

01:06:32.780 Start winning.

01:06:33.700 Winners find fabulous

01:06:34.940 for less.

The Megyn Kelly Show - November 04, 2020

Election Overtime, with Charles C.W. Cooke, Krystal Ball and Saagar Enjeti ｜ Ep. 20

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