The Megyn Kelly Show - August 13, 2024


Elon Musk Goes All In On Trump, and Predicting the 2024 Election, with Nate Silver, Bethany Mandel, and Karol Markowicz | Ep. 860


Episode Stats


Length

1 hour and 39 minutes

Words per minute

190.76941

Word count

18,909

Sentence count

1,255

Harmful content

Misogyny

32

sentences flagged

Toxicity

28

sentences flagged

Hate speech

24

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

Nate Silver is a political prognosticator, best known for correctly predicting the 2016 presidential election in 49 of the 50 states. But he s also a risk taker, and in his new book, On the Edge: The Art of Risks Everything, he lays out the habits of successful risk takers.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
00:00:00.480 Welcome to The Megyn Kelly Show, live on Sirius XM Channel 111 every weekday at New East.
00:00:11.880 Hey everyone, I'm Megyn Kelly. Welcome to The Megyn Kelly Show. Nate Silver kicks off our show
00:00:18.000 today. Nate first rose to fame back in 2008 when he correctly predicted the presidential winner
00:00:23.520 in 49 of the 50 states. He then took predictions and modeling mainstream with his massive 2012
00:00:31.320 bestselling book, The Signal and the Noise. He would join forces with the New York Times and
00:00:36.460 ABC News before going independent last year, relaunching on Substack with the cleverly
00:00:42.360 titled Silver Bulletin. Get it? Publication? I like it. It works. Along the way, he's received a lot
00:00:48.940 of praise and made some major enemies, especially recently for daring to state the obvious about
00:00:53.500 President Biden's cognitive decline. But you're not allowed to say things like that
00:00:57.760 when the left perceives you as one of their own. It's bad enough when they hear somebody like me do
00:01:02.600 it. They really don't want to hear somebody they consider part of their cabal do it.
00:01:06.580 And that leads to particular blowback for folks like Nate. We'll get into where the 2024 election
00:01:12.100 stands, including the one state we all should be watching. But we're also going to talk about the
00:01:17.860 importance of risk taking and the habits of successful risk takers, which he lays out in
00:01:24.020 his new book out today on the edge, the art of risking everything. It's rising up the Amazon charts
00:01:31.440 and sure to be another bestseller. Nate Silver is here for the first time. Lumen is the world's first
00:01:38.400 handheld metabolic coach. Listen to this. It's a device that measures your metabolism through your
00:01:45.060 breath. The app shows whether you're burning fat or carbs and provides tailored guidance to improve
00:01:51.320 your nutrition, workout, sleep, and stress management. You breathe into your Lumen first
00:01:56.140 thing in the morning, and then based on your measurements, Lumen will give you a personalized
00:02:00.160 nutrition plan for the day. You can also breathe into it before and after workouts and meals to get
00:02:04.980 real-time insights. Your metabolism is your body's engine. How it turns food into fuel. Optimal metabolic
00:02:12.860 health translates to numerous benefits, including easier weight management, improved energy levels,
00:02:18.320 better fitness results, and better sleep. Lumen can also track your cycle, adjusting its recommendations
00:02:24.000 to maintain a healthy metabolism through hormonal shifts. So if you want to take the next step in
00:02:29.080 improving your health, go to lumen.me slash Megan, and that'll get you 15% off your Lumen. 1.00
00:02:36.700 That's L-U-M-E-N dot M-E slash Megan for 15% off your purchase. Thank you, Lumen, for sponsoring this
00:02:45.040 episode. Nate, good to have you. How are you? I'm great. A little busy. They keep you busy with
00:02:50.380 the book launch, but I'm having fun. Thank you, Megan. Yeah, absolutely right. So let's go back and
00:02:54.280 do a little bio info for our audience, expanding on some of the things I just ticked off. So you were not
00:03:00.460 a political prognosticator at all for most of your adult professional life. You were though a risk
00:03:08.180 taker. So just talk to us about how you got into this line of work. Yeah. So I took a boring consulting
00:03:13.680 job. It was not a very risky job out of college and was perpetually bored at that, but had a friend
00:03:20.580 at the job who was starting a home poker game. And I played poker a little bit in college, but I'm really
00:03:25.320 competitive. So I started practicing on the internet, playing games for fake money, for free money at
00:03:31.120 first, which wasn't very fun. I mean, poker's a game meant to be played for money. But then deposited
00:03:36.200 money at one of these gray market, shall we say, online poker sites and started doing really well. I
00:03:41.960 mean, it was a poker boom. So you had a lot of dumb money in the poker economy. So being mediocre was good 0.98
00:03:48.180 enough to, for a period of a couple of years, win a lot of money. In 2006, the U.S. Congress passed a law
00:03:54.760 that basically banned internet poker, took away my livelihood. At the time, it was Republicans in
00:04:01.120 charge of Congress. So I was upset about that and started following politics more carefully.
00:04:07.240 Then in 2008, I was living in Chicago, 29 years old at the time. Barack Obama was a significant
00:04:12.520 figure, obviously, in the Chicago political scene. And so all of a sudden, this guy in my backyard is
00:04:17.240 running to become president. You have all these superstars. You have Hillary and Rudy and John McCain
00:04:21.980 and eventually Sarah Palin. So taking more of a moneyball, dad-driven approach to politics was in the
00:04:27.700 right place at the right time. But before I ever got into politics, I was a professional gambler.
00:04:32.640 It's kind of when I create a model that has odds and probabilities, it kind of comes from that
00:04:36.860 handicappers, you know, setting a point spread mindset almost.
00:04:42.380 It makes perfect sense. And then you realized you could actually make a different kind of living
00:04:46.200 out of those skills and got into the lane of predicting elections or probabilities of somebody
00:04:52.940 winning elections. And then, I mean, things really took off for you. It was, you became a big star
00:04:58.520 in America after that huge, you know, accurate prediction in 2008. And everybody came to know your
00:05:04.920 name and you were with the New York times. And then suddenly last year, like it all changed.
00:05:08.920 And there was a bit of a divorce, which I think we were all surprised to see. And I know officially
00:05:13.640 it was like ABC said it was laying off some people. I can't remember the exacts, but it seemed kind
00:05:19.880 of like bullshit. I see you as somebody who I see myself as in some ways, like you're better off on 0.98
00:05:26.500 your own. You don't need these corporate giants behind you. And in fact, I'm sure it's very freeing
00:05:30.000 not to have them. But can you tell us what happened there about how you get how you split when
00:05:34.540 independent? I mean, the problem is we were like a tiny barnacle on like the blue whale of Disney
00:05:40.820 where they're facing headwinds in terms of like theme parks and in terms of the cable news bundle
00:05:46.680 collapsing for ABC News and ESPN and things like that. They've never had a strategy for us to make
00:05:53.080 money. So even though I think it could be a very good business, I mean, my newsletter now, I don't
00:05:56.760 want to say the numbers, but it's a very good business. Never sign up for something when someone
00:06:02.340 doesn't have a plan to actually turn it into a real business because you're depending on the goodwill
00:06:07.280 of the CEO or the or the founder who brings you in and it becomes unsustainable when political
00:06:12.820 conditions change. You know, I don't think it was anything other than having to do with the
00:06:17.940 economics of the network. But, you know, I think they didn't realize the potential they had
00:06:21.180 in this asset and they and they laid off three quarters of the staff. At that point, my contract
00:06:26.420 was coming up, was going to expire in three months anyway. I mean, there was barely a negotiation in the
00:06:31.860 first place. But after that, definitely not a negotiation. But it's been a it's been a real
00:06:36.560 blessing. I mean, I just like being independent. The Substack model works really great. I have a 0.99
00:06:41.520 podcast now. I have a book. I like to take my own. I mean, I'm a poker player at heart, right? I don't
00:06:46.180 want to have to play on someone else's schedule. And so it's just very freeing to be able to calibrate
00:06:51.160 and say what you want, how you want it. Be a little bit complex to say, I agree with person X about Y,
00:06:56.640 but not Z. It's been great. So what happened with The New York Times in FiveThirtyEight?
00:07:04.480 That was, I would say, a good relationship. I mean, I was at The Times in 2010 through 2012
00:07:08.940 at a time when they were growing their digital subscriber base a lot. And FiveThirtyEight was
00:07:13.540 one of the most profitable and popular assets on The New York Times. And look, I have different
00:07:20.060 conflicts here, right? I criticize The New York Times a lot. I was a little bit bitter about it when I
00:07:24.840 left them. I also work for them now, sometimes in freelance for them. I think they've become
00:07:28.320 one of the smartest businesses in media. But 10 years ago, I'm not sure that was true. They had a
00:07:33.580 turnover of CEO. And they've always had an issue where the New York Times brand is the brand, and
00:07:40.900 they are afraid of having too much star talent that outweighs the brand, I guess. And so kind of the
00:07:47.560 internal politics were disappointing in a way. I mean, I assumed I'd worked there for many years. I have an
00:07:52.600 apartment that's like walking distance from The Times office. But, you know, look, it's been 12 years
00:07:59.060 now, so I'm willing to forgive that one.
00:08:03.040 But the reason I ask is I saw a headline on Mediaite the other day suggesting that you were
00:08:10.420 displeased that FiveThirtyEight's been, like the forecast, has been suspended. They're now affixing a
00:08:18.060 note to the top of it, where it could formally be found, the forecast saying as of July 21st at 2 p.m.
00:08:24.120 Eastern, President Biden has suspended his campaign for the Democratic Party, whatever, for president.
00:08:31.080 And I guess they decided to suspend the forecast. And you suggested, at least according to Mediaite,
00:08:39.040 that this is being done for political reasons. Can you explain that?
00:08:43.340 I don't think it's being done for political reasons as much as maybe to save them a model
00:08:50.380 they don't trust or that could be embarrassing to them in some ways. They had said back in July
00:08:55.160 that their model had Biden doing substantially better than Kamala Harris, which I don't think
00:09:01.600 made any sense at the time and definitely doesn't make any sense now, given the polling. Their model
00:09:06.280 actually doesn't look very much at polling. It relies on things like the economy and incumbency. So,
00:09:11.000 you know, I don't know why they don't have the model back on. It's one of the most fascinating
00:09:15.840 periods in American political history. I mean, the amount of attention paid to anything having to do
00:09:20.440 with the horse race and politics and polls is very high right now. So I can't speak to what's going on
00:09:25.480 there. But like, I mean, there's an issue making where if you leave a brand and they get to keep
00:09:30.160 the brand name, I mean, 538 was, I'm no longer associated with it, but they have the brand name.
00:09:34.140 And it's a little bit of an awkward spot if, if, if you think they're putting out a product that
00:09:39.020 doesn't live up to, I mean, I'm a demanding person, but it doesn't live out up to the standards that
00:09:43.880 you created. And they have great people there. The people I work with, they're still there, but
00:09:46.840 they, they hired a new guy that, um, that I infuted with and thought, you know, was not someone I would
00:09:52.140 have hired. Um, and so whatever, I mean, you know, I got the model, I got my model, I got, I have myself.
00:09:58.120 And so I got the valuable things out of that relationship, but it's frustrating to have a version
00:10:02.280 of a product that is not, not the product that you helped create. That would be horrible. That
00:10:07.520 would be like me somehow losing control of the Megan Kelly show and being permitted to go off and
00:10:12.360 form my own show. But the new person could call it the Megan Kelly show. I would hate that. Yeah.
00:10:17.980 But do you think that there is, I mean, cause that's maybe they'll start the forecasting now
00:10:22.220 that Kamala's back and it's going well for her. I mean, because to me, it seems so obvious that
00:10:26.460 they lost interest in doing that when it, when it looked like Joe Biden was doing so poorly.
00:10:30.120 Well, cause their forecasts had been the most optimistic forecast for Biden, right? When
00:10:33.980 Biden left the race, they still had it at 50 50, which I think is, is simply wrong based both on
00:10:40.700 the polling and based on kind of common sense, right? I mean, this is a guy who was having trouble
00:10:45.700 delivering even prepared remarks and certainly anything off, off, but off a teleprompter was very
00:10:50.920 difficult for, for the president. Um, so look, I don't know. I mean, the guy who runs the model,
00:10:55.600 I think has definitely seemed like he's more of a partisan leaning Democrat, but look, I, I,
00:11:00.800 you need to separate out your rooting interest from your ability to do analysis and reporting.
00:11:05.220 Right. Um, you know, I am full disclosure. I will vote probably for Kamala Harris. It's not
00:11:12.080 going to matter. It's in New York. Um, but if Trump is ahead by three points of Pennsylvania
00:11:16.460 on election day, then that's what our forecast will reflect. And I'm not going to spin it and I'm not
00:11:20.780 going to indulge, you know, critiques from Democrats because people say all of a sudden
00:11:24.400 when we had Trump way ahead, they're like, Oh, Nate is MAGA now, right? Nate's being funded by
00:11:28.820 the right wing. And now that, now that it's 50 50 again, or we actually have Harris slightly ahead,
00:11:32.860 then, Oh, you're back in good graces. I think people don't understand that some folks are able
00:11:37.540 to separate out their journalism from, you know, I think it's fine as a citizen to have opinions about
00:11:42.280 public affairs and for transparency reasons to even articulate that for context, when you're going on
00:11:47.620 the media appearance or we're writing about the election. Um, but we can decouple these things
00:11:52.740 from one another. I think it's, I think people are, are, should hold themselves to a higher standard
00:11:56.900 of being able to, you know, walk and chew gum at the same time. Yeah. I mean, it's been a while
00:12:02.280 since I've taken statistics and probability, but those seem like models that one could follow
00:12:07.060 irrespective of one's bias. However, I guess there are some people who put inputs into the models
00:12:13.300 that could change the outcome and they do. It's a fine line because when you're building a model,
00:12:19.660 especially for elections, you know, the other thing I do is sports and in sports, there are
00:12:23.760 hundreds of NFL games played every year and thousands of baseball games. It's easier to kind
00:12:28.860 of have the data speak for itself for elections. We have one election every four years. The political
00:12:33.300 climate is always changing. Conditions are different. Um, so you have to be more assumption driven.
00:12:38.380 And that requires you to think very carefully about like, you know, what are the assumptions
00:12:42.200 I make if I actually had to bet my own money on this election? Um, that's the standard I think
00:12:47.400 people should use because otherwise you get in a trap where, where your rooting interest tends to,
00:12:52.520 you know, surface in all types of different ways with all these decisions that you make when you
00:12:56.320 build a forecast and, and, and how you average a polls together or what standards you have for X and
00:13:01.260 Y and Z. So, um, it's a hard problem, actually. It's, it's a difficult problem. And, and,
00:13:06.500 you know, the longevity I have having done it since 2008, it's a real asset. Cause I,
00:13:11.160 I've been, it's not my first rodeo. So, all right. So just to take a look at your latest
00:13:17.300 probability, you've got Harris at 54.8% chance of winning the electoral college Trump at 44.7.
00:13:26.740 So not quite a 10 point difference between them, but you know, the, the race has shifted dramatically
00:13:31.720 toward the Dems favor since the substitution. Um, we went back and, you know, I know that you,
00:13:39.240 you know this, but you had predicted that Hillary had something like a 71% probability 0.90
00:13:43.220 of winning in 16. She didn't win. So that's just as a caution for the audience that this doesn't
00:13:49.120 mean that Harris is going to win. It's, it's a probability based on an input of what all the
00:13:54.360 latest polls are the polls that you trust. Like, how do you come, how do you decide what goes into the,
00:13:59.520 uh, the mix? We, we try to be as inclusive as possible, right? As long as it's a, it's a 1.00
00:14:05.140 professional poll, professional scientific poll, we include it regardless of the political ideology
00:14:10.780 of the pollster. You know, if there are polls that are amateur polls, like someone doing it
00:14:14.780 on a blog and they pay 300 bucks for a survey monkey survey, not those, but we are the most
00:14:20.100 inclusive of the different sites because we believe in the wisdom of consensus and the wisdom
00:14:25.180 of crowds. Um, and there are years where some of the polls people, uh, demean as outliers wind up
00:14:30.940 being right. And so we're kind of following a, following a process there. And to the other thing
00:14:34.220 you said, I mean, look, Harris is, it's basically a coin flip 54 46 is not much removed from a coin
00:14:40.620 flip. Um, and you're right that in 2016, Trump won with longer odds. He was a 29% in our model.
00:14:48.460 Now, what I would say is a poker player, gambler, sports better is that you look at where
00:14:52.420 is your prediction relative to the market. Um, the belief there, and if you wanted to bet on
00:14:57.180 Trump, you could get odds of six to one on Trump. So we said it should be actually three to one. So
00:15:01.960 if you're a gambler and you looked at our forecast, you'd say, I have a good bet on Trump because when
00:15:06.440 it pays off, it'll pay off more than enough to make it for the times when, when the, you know,
00:15:11.340 the favorite wins. So from my standpoint, that was what I call a plus expected value forecast,
00:15:16.420 meaning you play out the election a hundred times and you make money from it. Um, but understandably,
00:15:21.040 you know, not many people before have come from this poker playing background into becoming this
00:15:25.800 prominent election forecaster. So understandably, I know why kind of like the conventional media
00:15:30.220 is not going to get that and that's okay. It's a hazard of doing the job, but I do want to emphasize
00:15:34.820 that the uncertainty is there for a reason. The polls can be off. They were off in both 2016
00:15:40.200 and 2020, 2020 Biden had a big enough lead in the polls that he held on, but like they were off by four
00:15:46.400 or five points again in States like Wisconsin. Hmm. So what, I mean, there, of course, at this
00:15:54.080 point in the race, there are many Republicans who are starting to get very worried, right? Because
00:15:59.160 Trump looks so much better four weeks ago than he does today. We had the New York times Siena poll
00:16:03.460 that came out last yesterday showing, uh, Harris over Trump by four points in Michigan, Wisconsin
00:16:09.880 and Pennsylvania, the must win Pennsylvania. Uh, we had cook political report moving three states in
00:16:16.520 the sunbelt from lean R to toss up, including Arizona, Georgia and Nevada, which in Trump had
00:16:24.300 been looking really good in Nevada, which is not historically blue, but he, sorry, red, but, uh,
00:16:29.420 he'd been looking really good there. So a lot of Republicans are starting to get very nervous
00:16:34.080 with these polls coming in. You've got Trafalgar, which is historically, I guess, more friendly
00:16:40.260 toward, uh, Republican voters. They understand them a little bit better. I think the way he
00:16:45.240 polls is very interesting. He's got likely voters, uh, at least in Pennsylvania today, Trump up to all
00:16:51.900 within the margin of error. So how do we make sense of today's polling on this race? I mean, that's
00:16:58.220 kind of exactly what a polling average is designed for where it includes the New York times and it
00:17:02.320 includes the Trafalgar's. Um, I don't mean to totally compare them. I mean, we have pollster
00:17:06.360 ratings based on their historical accuracy and, and, you know, Trafalgar has had great years and
00:17:10.540 not so great years, for example. Um, look, there's a pretty clear consensus that Kamala Harris is
00:17:16.360 ahead in most national polls right now by an average of two or three points. Um, national polls,
00:17:23.280 however, do not determine the election because the popular vote doesn't determine the election
00:17:26.260 in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania. She's ahead by a point, maybe two points,
00:17:32.320 but that's really within the margin of error of the polls, right? If you had the election today,
00:17:36.340 which would be a little bit weird, but if, if you had the election today and Trump won Wisconsin,
00:17:40.860 that would be not surprising in the least, right? I mean, I think you'd take Harris at 50, 50 odds,
00:17:46.560 but it's, it's very close. And the fact that look, one way to look at it is that we've had
00:17:50.820 three straight close elections with Trump. One where he came out a little bit ahead,
00:17:56.680 when we came out a little bit behind. Um, and Harris is like a league average democratic candidate,
00:18:03.040 right? I mean, you know, Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by two points. I frankly think
00:18:06.500 Kamala Harris is a better candidate than Hillary Clinton. So if she wins by three points, the popular 0.99
00:18:11.120 vote, then you have a close electoral college race where I think she might be the slightest favorite, 0.99
00:18:15.680 um, but would be very competitive. Hmm. Okay. So to those despairing on the right,
00:18:22.700 it's too soon for that to those celebrating on the left, same message.
00:18:27.300 No, look, I, um, I think both parties have, look, Democrats went from a terrible position. I mean,
00:18:34.620 Biden was way behind. And I think if anything, our model overrated Biden's chances, cause he was not
00:18:39.620 able to do the normal things that a candidate does as fundraising was drying up. He had another
00:18:43.320 debate to survive. Um, so, you know, I thought Biden's chances might've only been 10% or something
00:18:48.960 and now it's 50, 50 or 54 or 55. I mean, that, that feels great when you're a poker player and
00:18:55.140 you're down to your last few chips and all of a sudden you're a real player in the game. Um,
00:18:59.700 but like Democrats are maybe getting a little bit carried away here. Um, Kamala Harris is going to 1.00
00:19:06.320 have her convention next week. And typically that produces a further boost in the polling. So I think
00:19:11.260 August will remain a rough month for the GOP. Um, but September, she will face a different type
00:19:17.920 of pressure. The pressure being a perceived front runner, potentially, um, that can be more
00:19:24.420 difficult. I mean, being an underdog is a powerful kind of constituents or powerful meme in American
00:19:29.700 politics. It's a sympathetic situation. And, and in some ways, in some ways it's a great story,
00:19:34.160 right? I mean, she takes over this old guy and performs way better than people thought, 0.86
00:19:37.940 um, rises in the polls could become the first woman president. It's understanding understandable
00:19:43.300 by voters and certainly the media find this story compelling, but, but usually there are twists once
00:19:48.900 you get out after labor day and having this debate September 10th, which by the way, is still pretty
00:19:52.800 early for a debate. Um, that's the most obvious fork in the road for a momentum swing.
00:19:58.160 Mm-hmm. Have you been able, Nate, when you've been watching the media, I mean, it's been such a
00:20:03.820 whiplash, right? Of them eventually deciding Biden had to go, okay, we're going to do our
00:20:09.660 shoe leather reporting. Let's get to the bottom of this. We're suddenly interested in all of his
00:20:13.540 fails and stumbles. And then as soon as she got anointed, it was like, not interested anymore.
00:20:20.580 Forgot all our shoe leather problems. Let's just let her, let's let her coast and be her PR agents 1.00
00:20:25.640 on the back of the plane and back of the bus and not insist on interviews, et cetera.
00:20:29.020 Yeah. Yeah. Look, I think the Biden story should have been covered first and foremost as a
00:20:34.980 governance story. It's the hardest job in the world. Um, you know, how much uptime does Biden
00:20:41.300 have seems like a valid question. And by the way, I think these questions can be asked of Trump too.
00:20:45.960 I think, I think, can, it should be more transparent about their medical records and their mental health
00:20:50.420 and things like that as well. And people should have the right to ask questions, but yeah, it's,
00:20:53.620 it's not a great look that once the force race aspect of the story was resolved, that,
00:20:58.480 that the story faded from the headlines so quickly. Um, cause it's about, you know,
00:21:03.540 if there's a 3am phone call from, from North Korea, then do you have the best person in office
00:21:08.700 to take that job? And, and I don't know. I mean, I, I, you know, the fact that Biden's been cagey
00:21:14.800 about his diagnosis, if he has one, it's not been, it's not been a great look. And it's a sign of how,
00:21:20.140 I mean, what's weird about me is like, you know, I'm someone who is kind of in the liberal media
00:21:25.560 establishment, but also critical of it at times. And I think in election years in particular,
00:21:30.500 you sometimes see behavior that's more, more strategic, I guess I'd say.
00:21:35.180 Hmm. My gosh. I mean, that's such a sweet interpretation of it, but well, I mean,
00:21:40.300 corrupt if you ask me, but that's me, but on your point about Joe Biden, um, Tom Bevin over at real
00:21:46.660 clear politics actually went and pulled the president's schedule just to see what he's actually doing,
00:21:50.760 what Joe Biden's actually doing. This is last week. He posted this on August 8th.
00:21:53.780 And he wrote, uh, his schedule this week is truly absurd. One phone call on Monday,
00:22:00.240 nothing on Tuesday, nothing on Wednesday, one phone call and the ceremony on Thursday.
00:22:07.600 And then off to the beach house. He adds any employee or CEO who did this would be fired.
00:22:13.080 Biden is the leader of the free world working 10 hours a week. And our media couldn't care less.
00:22:19.840 They want him to coast. I guess they feel like he deserves it because he stepped down.
00:22:24.740 So it's like out of respect, even though we have two wars going, the middle East and Ukraine,
00:22:29.300 and we may be seeing an expansion of one or both. Yeah. Look, there are various things. There's like
00:22:34.880 the old gold water rule about not wanting to diagnose a candidate's physical or mental health
00:22:39.480 from afar. Um, but look, you know, audience captures a thing too. And, and even the more
00:22:46.680 highbrow, you know, center left outlets will publish more stories that get more page views and get more
00:22:51.500 traction. Those are generally stories that have good news for their, for their democratic leaning
00:22:56.680 audience. Right. So just organically that can sometimes emerge. And I've worked for the New York
00:23:01.200 Times and I don't think they kind of consciously go out and say, let's be, let's, you know, cater to the
00:23:05.360 left today, but I think the readership leans that way. And so, and so you have, you know,
00:23:10.480 that's reflected in the coverage a little bit. Yeah. And so are the reporters, which has an effect.
00:23:15.440 Yeah. And look, the fact that you say that, you know, Roger, I was just gonna say at Fox,
00:23:19.500 Roger understood that when you hire young journalists, they're going to be left-leaning,
00:23:23.340 like young people tend to be left-leaning, certainly young people out of journalism school.
00:23:26.920 And he understood that you weren't not hired at Fox because you were a left-leaning person.
00:23:31.480 You just got the talk about, that's not what we do here. If you, if you want to just write
00:23:36.620 left-leaning things for left-leaning readers, go someplace else. If you actually want to do fair
00:23:40.540 and balanced news, which is, you know, Brit Humes to call it like pick money up off the street.
00:23:44.460 It's just like the whole lane of stories, not told, not touched in a fair way.
00:23:48.420 Then you can work here. But I don't think that reporters at the New York Times get that speech.
00:23:53.720 Yeah. I don't know. Again, I, you know, I am a little conflicted out here. I freelance the New York
00:23:57.020 Times, so I don't want to speak, you know, and you should account for that conflict. Look, I think the issue
00:24:01.000 is that it's kind of the pipeline issue where the Times is hiring from lots of elite colleges and
00:24:07.700 universities, young people from elite colleges and universities. And, you know, they're very bright
00:24:11.440 people. I mean, they get the best and brightest people in their class, but, but people coming out
00:24:15.640 of those elite institutions are progressive Democrats. And, and look, there are more journalists
00:24:21.300 than you could, than you could might expect, Megan. I mean, I'd push back. There are a lot of journalists
00:24:24.960 who care about the truth and are able to separate out their rooting interest from, from their journalism.
00:24:30.040 I mean, I think the majority, even maybe even the super majority who's coming to mind.
00:24:36.060 I'm not going to name names. I mean, look, no, it's the majority. That's insane, Nate. That's
00:24:42.180 insane. I'm not going to deny there are some, but the majority, absolutely not. Look at the news
00:24:46.340 coverage. I mean, look at the news coverage. You see the headlines today after that Elon Trump thing
00:24:49.500 last night at the media knew exactly what to do. It sucked. He sucked. Elon sucks. All our concerns 0.98
00:24:55.120 about being kind toward people with special learning and so on out the window when it's
00:25:00.160 Elon Musk, who everybody knows is on the spectrum. No, we can make fun of him to, you know, it's like
00:25:05.500 this is just today's example, but we'd be here all week. It's definitely not the majority. I hear we
00:25:11.820 have a difference of opinion. Go ahead. Look, I mean, I worked in these spaces as well. And I think
00:25:18.220 there are a lot of good people there. I think sometimes the people who care more about the
00:25:22.000 journalistic standards are reluctant to speak up to younger colleagues who want to take the
00:25:27.600 newsroom in a more progressive direction. And you have a lot of internal battles. You know,
00:25:32.300 one thing about the times is that, you know, at the times, a kind of more traditionalist actually
00:25:36.660 said, hey, if you want to turn this into like a progressive newspaper, then this is not the place
00:25:41.120 for you exactly. And they've shifted a lot from kind of the peak of 2020, peak wokeness or whatever
00:25:47.100 you want to call it. I read so much stuff. And, you know, and I might not say that about outlets
00:25:51.900 X, Y and Z. I don't want to make enemies now, but there are outlets that I wouldn't say that about.
00:25:56.460 Yeah, I said it. Yeah, plenty more. I want to play this because you said it's not considered
00:26:02.920 appropriate to diagnose from afar in the context of Joe Biden. President Trump did not get that memo.
00:26:08.980 He feels perfectly comfortable doing it. And here is a little bit from his discussion with Elon last night.
00:26:14.360 Now, Biden's, you know, close to vegetable stage, in my opinion. OK, I looked at him today on the beach
00:26:23.120 and I said, why would anybody allow him? The guy could barely walk. Why would anybody allow him?
00:26:30.180 Does he have a political advisor that thinks this looks good? You know, he can't lift the chair.
00:26:34.620 The chair weighs about three ounces. It's meant for children and old people to lift. And he can't lift it.
00:26:41.000 The whole thing is crazy. It's clearly I mean, it's clearly like we just don't have a president.
00:26:46.260 You don't have a president. And she's going to be worse than him because she is a San Francisco 0.97
00:26:52.120 liberal who destroyed San Francisco. And then as attorney general, she destroyed California. 1.00
00:26:59.140 OK, so he's getting a little bit more on message there at the end. But Nate, do you think and I
00:27:04.900 realize you're more on the statistics and probability game, but do you think there's a chance
00:27:09.320 they actually might sub out Biden before November so she could run as an incumbent?
00:27:18.020 I mean, I don't know that we can connote an advantage to her. It would certainly make her 0.59
00:27:22.620 campaigning schedule more difficult. But I do think there's a chance just because if you look at look,
00:27:26.760 I spent a lot of time looking at curves, right? Curves for how baseball players are going to do or how
00:27:31.700 the polls are trending. And the trajectory for Biden is, you know, seems to be pretty negative.
00:27:37.960 That instead of an occasional senior moment, that that's kind of like the norm now. And we also know
00:27:43.460 if you look at actuarial tables or if you just had older relatives, that once you kind of hit the late
00:27:49.420 70s, early 80s, that you often hit an inflection point where someone goes from having good days
00:27:55.780 most of the time to bad days most of the time. And so, yeah, I mean, the fact that he wanted
00:28:01.980 to be president for another four years, if you extend out that curve, I mean, that was,
00:28:07.140 you know, kind of an untenable ask of voters. It's the main reason that he was losing. But
00:28:11.620 it's a perfectly logical question to ask, you know, why not just step aside now? I think that's
00:28:17.900 perfectly logical. And the media should ask that question more and ask questions about Trump. Again,
00:28:22.400 I would encourage more reporting on, you know, is Trump in some state of decline? I think that's
00:28:28.740 a fair question to ask of any 78-year-old. That is a fair question. Yeah. 0.59
00:28:33.760 Yeah, that's absolutely a fair question. And look, I mean, we've, one of the reasons why Trump gets
00:28:38.600 upset with yours truly is because I have been raising that question for a while. And when he has
00:28:43.720 what appear to be senior moments, I will call him out on it. And he doesn't like that. And I can't say
00:28:48.100 that I blame him, but that's, that's my job. I will say that in that discussion with Elon,
00:28:53.780 to me, he seemed quite rambling. I mean, it was like, he rambles, he goes on too long at his rallies
00:29:01.480 and in these exchanges and at his presser the other day to where you get kind of bored, you lose the
00:29:06.780 thread, you lose interest, which is not something you're used to with Trump. Trump in 2016, he was
00:29:13.600 tough to lose interest in. And I think that's probably an age-related change. So I think this
00:29:19.260 is one of the challenges of the people around him who are, I'm sure, are desperately trying to get
00:29:24.560 him to stick on message. No, look, uh, for the first 30 minutes or so of the convention speech
00:29:30.680 in Milwaukee, this is when Biden's still the candidate, remember? And it's like just a few
00:29:35.540 days after Trump was shot at, um, you know, it was a kinder, gentler, softer side of Trump.
00:29:41.500 And I'm like, okay, he's just going to win this election, right? It's kind of just the destiny
00:29:45.300 of it. When the bullet raises your ear and, and Biden is 81 years old and you're four points ahead
00:29:50.840 nationally. And, and, and he's finally figured out that, Hey, I can just kind of, um, have a glide
00:29:57.460 path to the presidency here. And then, and then he goes off in the rest of the speech and rambles.
00:30:01.780 And then three days later, Democrats replaced Kamala Harris or replaced Joe Biden with Kamala
00:30:06.480 Harris. And like, I think he was not, I mean, there's not just me. There is reporting that the
00:30:11.840 Trump campaign was underweighting the possibility that the, that you would have a candidate switch,
00:30:16.200 right? If I were them, just like you're an NFL team scouting for the backup quarterback,
00:30:20.520 when the starter is injury prone, I mean, I would have wanted to have a plan ready to go
00:30:25.020 on day one for Kamala Harris. Instead, they were like tweeting out memes, like the coconut meme that
00:30:30.320 Democrats actually think are funny and endearing to her. They were like actually kind of,
00:30:33.040 you know, making her look like she was fun and different than Biden. And then they got off on
00:30:37.140 the race stuff and, and they were very flat footed about JD Vance. Um, they look, it was their election
00:30:44.460 to lose and they haven't lost it yet. It's 50, 50 more or less, but they have, they have fumbled the
00:30:50.380 ball in a pretty profound way. I think that's a, that's a good way of putting it. Um, so football
00:30:57.360 players take big risks. So do politicians, so to poker players. And that brings me to your book
00:31:03.060 because you take a hard look at some of our best and brightest here in America. Some of our not so
00:31:10.220 great and not so bright Sam Bankman freed comes to mind. You interviewed him repeatedly. Uh, you,
00:31:17.200 there's a great story in the book about Elon Musk. And I was thinking about it when you were talking
00:31:21.720 about your political analysis earlier and sort of the way some people approach challenges.
00:31:28.020 Poker can be a very insightful way into seeing who someone is and in particular their risk tolerance.
00:31:36.720 And why is one's risk tolerance relevant to life? Like, why do we want to know what one's risk tolerance
00:31:44.600 is? I think in part, because we are now forced to make all these decisions on our own, um, in a
00:31:52.780 world where kind of, there's lots, a loss of trust in institutions. I mean, under COVID, you kind of had
00:31:58.600 to figure out in your own, especially if you're in a blue state, um, that, okay, I'm going to have some
00:32:03.800 friends over to my private home because I'm not going to be able to go a year without social contact
00:32:08.500 or whatever. Right. Or I can take my mask off when I'm walking outdoors and things like that. And that,
00:32:13.400 and that some of these risks have been, have been misstated or speculative or people don't have
00:32:17.940 your best interest in mind necessarily. Um, I think in a world where people have to fend for
00:32:22.100 themselves, then a personality type of, you know, questioning the conventional wisdom of questioning
00:32:28.560 authority of being a little contrarian that tends to be rewarded a little bit more. Sometimes that
00:32:33.840 personality type is, is correlated with being a very difficult person, I think, or going too far or
00:32:39.560 questioning the conventional wisdom. And believe it or not, it's actually right. Um,
00:32:42.960 Elon has some of that. The story about Elon playing poker is that he literally just goes all in
00:32:47.280 every hand and rebuys until he's finally broke. Um, which is, I think kind of a metaphor. I mean,
00:32:53.300 you know, both Tesla and SpaceX were, wait, wait, wait, wait, was he, was he with the all in guys
00:32:58.120 at the all in poker game or was this not the, I played, I played the all in guys. This is an
00:33:02.780 earlier poker game. Yeah. Um, but literally just doubling down and going all in every hand. And
00:33:08.020 that's how he ran his companies. I mean, both Tesla and SpaceX, like it isn't, wasn't the story
00:33:12.280 in the book that he kept doing that. He kept losing all in again, losing, he'd get more chips,
00:33:17.260 lose, and he kept doing it until he won. And then he was like, I'm done.
00:33:20.540 You will, you will not, he eventually, I don't know if he ran out of money or he won a small pot
00:33:24.340 and then gave up, but that's, that's not a winning poker strategy. Um, okay. Okay. When you're
00:33:28.480 don't try that at home. Don't, I don't recommend the Elon kamikaze poker strategy. Um,
00:33:32.940 when you're in business though, and you're a venture capitalist, you're looking for founders
00:33:38.320 that have an extremely high risk tolerance that are willing to go all in on a contrarian idea
00:33:43.860 for 10, 12, 15 years. Um, because they, it might be worth a thousand X your investment and you can
00:33:50.280 only lose one time your investment. Um, and Elon's done that twice with Tesla and SpaceX, which, you know,
00:33:56.900 in Silicon Valley, understandably gives you kind of God-like status there. Financially,
00:34:02.520 the bet on Twitter seems like it probably won't be great. However, as a bet in terms of cultural
00:34:07.440 influence, um, you know, as much as he might get made fun of by the establishment media, I mean,
00:34:12.660 you know, Twitter, I think is part of what has caused a vibe shift away from left progressivism
00:34:19.520 toward a more conservative direction. Um, you know, I mean, I think Elon's not a centrist. He's
00:34:24.740 actually a full-bodied conservative. Now he endorsed Trump. Um, but lots of prominent journalists,
00:34:30.680 center left journalists are still on the platform. It's still the best forum for, for many topics
00:34:35.920 like sports, which I follow. It was fun to follow during the Olympics. So I think, you know, look,
00:34:40.300 even the Twitter bet, I think can't be totally dismissed. And the same journalist who would say,
00:34:44.940 oh, this is such a disaster. Twitter are still on Twitter and still using Twitter to like drive
00:34:49.000 engagement to their platforms. They are, they all said they were leaving and they went over to that
00:34:53.720 Mark Zuckerberg thing. And then we never heard about that thing again. And they're all back on Twitter.
00:34:57.400 I see them all the time. I mean, politics doesn't really work without conflict. Um,
00:35:02.820 and journalism doesn't really work without conflict. Uh, and so like having like the threads
00:35:08.980 or an alternative where, where only the left was there or blue sky or whatever, like it's just people,
00:35:15.320 I don't know what metaphors I'm allowed to use in the show. It's just people patting themselves
00:35:18.620 on the back, I guess is how I put it. It's not very, it's not very interesting. Yeah. A circle
00:35:24.100 jerk was a term I was going to use. Yeah. I got it. Uh, speaking of Elon's political views, 0.92
00:35:29.260 he did speak to that in the interview with Trump last night. Here's a bit of it. It's not six.
00:35:33.400 If you look at my chart, my record, it's, I've actually been, I'm, I'm, I'm not like,
00:35:37.820 so they try to paint me as like a far right guy, which is absurd because I'm like making electric
00:35:41.620 pickles and, you know, solar and batteries helping them with the environment. I supported Obama. I
00:35:46.660 stood in line for six hours to shake Obama's hand when, when he was running for president. I call
00:35:51.020 myself, uh, you know, historically a moderate Democrat and that, but now I feel like we're
00:35:57.660 really at, at a critical juncture for the country. So this is to people out there who are in the
00:36:01.980 moderate camp to say, I think you should support, um, Donald Trump for president.
00:36:08.320 All right, Nate, I have a, I have a crazy prediction for you. I think in four years,
00:36:13.020 that's going to be you. I can see your eyes starting to open. I've been watching your evolution on X
00:36:19.040 and I see, I see you, you are going from somebody who has committed on the left, New York times guy
00:36:26.080 to more heterodox. You challenged a lot of the COVID lockdowns and the madness. You see the lunacy
00:36:32.260 on some of these, you know, media stories. That's my prediction in four years, you're going to be
00:36:36.860 sounding just like that. I would be surprised because I think in part, we've seen some acknowledgement
00:36:42.420 on the left that they need to course correct a little bit. Um, we have seen a decline in wokeness
00:36:48.200 in the past four years. In my opinion, we have seen colleges like Harvard, uh, bring back
00:36:53.600 standardized tests and more requirements for, for attending school there. We've seen outlets like
00:36:58.420 the New York times, I think, understand that, um, they want to have a broad audience, probably not
00:37:03.300 conservatives, not Trump fans, but broad from left to center, right. So I've seen some, you know,
00:37:08.560 some course corrections, I think. And cause what I want is like, I don't think that like questioning
00:37:13.220 authority, uh, or being skeptical of, of the accumulation of power. I don't think that
00:37:19.120 should be right coded or conservative coded, right? Maybe it should be left coded. I don't
00:37:22.720 know. But like, you know, the fact that like, oh, um, you know, oh, questioning the experts
00:37:27.400 is now seen as being something which is very right wing. I mean, that used to be a value I
00:37:31.660 associated with skepticism, a value associated with liberalism. Um, and I can get to, if you want
00:37:36.780 to get into political theory about, you know, I call myself, I'm a liberal, but I'm not on the
00:37:41.700 left. Um, and I hope that, you know, for a long period of time in American politics, there's been
00:37:46.720 a coalition between liberalism, which is an enlightenment political tradition and the left
00:37:51.700 that might be breaking down to some degrees, but, but I don't find like, you know, Elon's
00:37:56.560 political turn, very appealing. For example, he's also tweeting out things that are misinformation
00:38:01.420 and he's gotten like red pilled in a lot of ways. And, and I, you know, I, I think I'm truly
00:38:06.620 independent. And, and like I said, I'm, I'm, you know, a Kamala Harris voter this year. There are
00:38:11.500 Republicans apart from Trump that I would undoubtedly find more appealing. Um, but I know it's a cliche.
00:38:16.820 I, I, I, I feel like I have stood in place and other people have abandoned their values a little
00:38:22.140 bit. I think my faith in institutions has gone down a little bit with the COVID things and some of
00:38:27.340 things happening in higher education and so forth. I mean, there've been a lot of,
00:38:30.540 a lot of, you know, scandals in the Catholic church, for example, it's, it, there are good 1.00
00:38:34.380 reasons why people have become less trusting of institutions and authority. And I'm, I'm
00:38:39.040 sympathetic to those. There are certainly more people in my world that are, have, you know,
00:38:43.500 the permission structure to vote for Trump has opened up in my, my kind of poker playing risk
00:38:47.700 taking world that's opened up, but, but, you know, I am not with the program myself and I don't
00:38:52.180 think I will be in four years. I mean, like I've seen this happen to a lot of people. I'm just saying
00:38:56.420 it's my, it's my prediction. It's my statistics and probability, which again, I haven't taken
00:39:00.400 since 10th grade. So take us with a big grain of salt, but I see you on an evolutionary path that
00:39:05.880 I've seen many times. Um, and I do think you're right. The ground underneath your feet shifts. I
00:39:10.580 mean, I really don't see myself as, as feeling any different about my issues than I felt when I was at
00:39:18.080 Fox news and people, you say, Oh, she's a centrist. She's a moderate. Now they say I'm some,
00:39:23.020 somebody on the far right. Somebody even says alt-right. I don't even know what that is anymore,
00:39:27.320 but you know, if being against children, cutting off healthy body parts without their parents'
00:39:32.280 permission, it makes you all right. Then, okay, whatever. You can call me what you want.
00:39:36.640 Um, you know, some of us have got our core issues. Let me just ask you, can I just ask you,
00:39:40.460 and then I want to talk more about the book, but can you explain to me as a Democrat, how you could
00:39:44.480 vote for, for Kamala Harris when we've got the open border. And I mean, these are my two biggest 1.00
00:39:52.180 issues, not in, not in this order that you've got the open border and you've got the child
00:39:56.540 transition problem. I mean, you've got literally, you've got kids cutting off healthy body parts and 1.00
00:40:01.440 being sterilized by regimes in States that just think it's fine. Even without parental permission,
00:40:06.920 schools, hiding it from parents, life altering, life changing. I realized it's a small segment of
00:40:11.540 the population, but to me, it's just like, these are children. How could, how can we support any party
00:40:17.360 that will facilitate this? Not, not a judgment on you. Just want to explain. I mean, I'm not a
00:40:22.540 Democrat. I'm actually registered Republican. I registered as Republican in 2016 to vote against
00:40:26.440 Trump in the GOP primary in New York. Um, because I live in a very blue district. So your vote has a
00:40:31.100 lot more leverage if you're, if you're Republican in my district. Um, I have no opinion on those other
00:40:35.960 topics. I'm not a Democrat and I, I, I think Trump has some paths that, um, are more obvious. I mean,
00:40:42.660 I think inflation and immigration, um, I think people in the media overrate on both sides,
00:40:48.860 the culture war stuff a little bit. Um, I know it gets people riled up. Um, but if I were trying to
00:40:54.620 Trump, I'd talk about immigration and, and Harris's left-wing record in California and running in 2020,
00:41:00.800 um, and not go for the culture war stuff as much. Okay. But that like, that doesn't answer,
00:41:08.380 you know, I don't, I'm trying to figure out how a, how a relatively moderate, reasonable, smart,
00:41:14.460 likable guy can pull the lever for somebody who's going to facilitate more of this. You know,
00:41:18.980 is it, is it just that it's not a priority? It's not like on your list of things that make you pull
00:41:24.560 the lever for one person or the other. It's, it doesn't affect, it doesn't affect me in any way.
00:41:28.920 And I think, you know, I kind of lean a little bit libertarian and, and I understand that you have
00:41:32.840 issues when it comes to children, but like, it's just not, it's not something, it's something where
00:41:36.960 there is more heat than light. It's not an issue that, you know, I have trans friends and I think
00:41:42.880 it's a complicated issue. I think lots of movements go too far in different directions,
00:41:46.520 but it's not, it's not my issue. I mean, you know, for me, the disqualifying issue for Trump
00:41:50.920 is January 6th. Um, I just think it's fundamentally disqualifying. Um, you know, in the same ways,
00:41:57.460 I thought that Biden's age was also disqualifying, was planning to vote libertarian or some other third
00:42:03.160 party. Um, you know, I could argue that Trump's age is also disqualifying. I would like to see
00:42:07.520 a constitutional amendment where you can't be inaugurated when you're past the age of 75.
00:42:12.080 Um, so to me, it's a matter of, to me, it's a matter of January 6th disqualifying, 86 year
00:42:18.160 president disqualifying. Now I have someone who's qualified and I'm not, I'm certainly not on the far
00:42:22.100 left. I'm very much in the center, but like if you eliminate one choice, then you have one other
00:42:26.120 choice. And, and, and that's the choice I will make as a, as an irrelevant voter in New York.
00:42:30.820 Hmm. I know. Well, I've been an irrelevant voter in New York my whole life. So I understand. Um,
00:42:35.780 though now I'm an irrelevant voter in Connecticut. I I'm, I'm not, I'm not trying to put my value
00:42:40.400 system on you. It's just, it, those things are so important to me. I, it, I hit my head against
00:42:45.100 my desk, not understanding why people don't see it as I do. And then I remind myself, not everybody
00:42:49.320 sees things as you do. Um, just for the record though, it's not about trans people. It's about the
00:42:53.900 children. Um, okay. Let's talk more about the book because explain to me what it means to be
00:42:59.360 a reverian. I want to get the pronunciation, right? Cause I've only heard her. I've only
00:43:03.960 seen it written as opposed to hearing you speak it. Yeah. A reverian means a resident of the river,
00:43:10.640 which are these people who combine being very analytical, um, quantitative with being really
00:43:15.980 risk-taking and competitive. So that's the canonical example of a poker player. Uh, they are
00:43:22.040 really good with math. They're also good with reading people in some particular way, at least.
00:43:25.920 Um, but they really want to win. I mean, poker players are insanely competitive and it's also
00:43:30.520 the mindset. When I talk to venture capitalists and founders in Silicon Valley, it's a similar
00:43:35.600 mindset. When you talk to people in the crypto boom, similar mindset, or obviously things like
00:43:40.420 sports betting, for example, it's a personality type that is very high variance, meaning very high
00:43:45.160 upside. So maybe you are like the richest person in the world, or maybe you're Sam Bankman
00:43:49.740 Freed who's kind of the anti-hero of the book. Um, and, and, you know, shows what happens when
00:43:55.900 these values are taken, are taken too far, but for better or worse, it's my world. It's a guided tour
00:44:00.980 of my world. And the hope is that I can kind of let you see people through their own eyes, through,
00:44:06.100 you know, fair and balanced. That's a cliche reporting where I talked to 200 people for this book.
00:44:11.380 Um, I believe as an author of the principle of show, not tell, right. I'm not going to beat you over
00:44:17.060 the head with something. I'm just going to give you good reporting people in their own words,
00:44:21.140 a lot of fun context and anecdotes. So I'm not trying to wait the dice too much. And I think
00:44:25.620 it does a really good job with that. Again, the book is called on the edge, the art of risking
00:44:31.120 everything. Is it true? You yourself won some $750,000 in the year that you were writing this book,
00:44:40.160 playing poker in the three years. And that's gross profit, not, not net, right. That means how much
00:44:45.860 money you, if you don't count all the losses, right. If you win 750 K, but no, I was in the
00:44:51.180 top 300 in the global poker index rankings worldwide for a period of time, which is pretty
00:44:55.460 cool to be doing it in my spare time. Um, you know, there's a lot of luck involved in the short
00:45:00.180 run in poker, but no, I love the game and I like it cause it is both a strategy math game and a people
00:45:05.860 game. I mean, at the end of the day, um, if you can, if you can look at somebody and, you know,
00:45:10.980 I used to think this was overrated, the physical reads or the vibes thing, but like when you get
00:45:16.400 thousands of hours of training of looking at people when they're playing a poker hand and,
00:45:20.480 and, you know, is their heart beating in their neck? What are their hands doing? Um, their,
00:45:25.600 their eyes, the eyes, people know how to like lie through their eyes, but they forget about like the
00:45:30.000 rest of their body, their posture and things like that. And so, um, so talking to some of the best
00:45:36.300 poker players in the world, in the book, um, as well as being, you know, proficient on the math
00:45:41.540 side of things, certainly I've gotten to a point where, where I'm pretty competitive and poker is
00:45:45.220 unique in that, like, I couldn't go, I'm terrible at basketball. So, you know, I wouldn't be allowed
00:45:49.440 to anyway, but like, I couldn't go and play like a Steph, Steph Curry and, and, and LeBron James at a
00:45:54.500 pickup game of basketball, right? In poker, you can register and pay your $10,000, go to the cashier's
00:46:01.140 window of main event, world series of poker. They'll give you a ticket and you can sit down on the
00:46:04.720 table and the best poker players in the world might be there, uh, battling against you. So it's
00:46:08.740 a very lowercase D democratic enterprise. Um, and it's kind of my, it's kind of my safe space is my
00:46:14.940 joke. What's the game. What's your game of choice? I mostly play Texas Hold'em. That's the, that's the
00:46:21.440 most popular game. It's a two card game where you get two cards face down. So you have no information
00:46:26.060 about what someone has apart from their betting patterns. Now, would your methods work against say my
00:46:32.440 children? I mean, I have a 14, a 13 and an 11 year old. They love to play poker. Um, would it,
00:46:38.500 would they work against a child, right? Who's they probably wouldn't be bluffing a whole lot of the
00:46:43.220 time, but they're reading their emotions is such a different game. Kids are pretty good at deception.
00:46:50.780 I think actually, I have a friend who wrote a book about like, you know, if you apply game theory to
00:46:55.440 parenting, because sometimes when you have kids, I don't have kids myself, but like, you know, if you have
00:46:59.240 kids in your, in your extended family, you're doing a little bit of negotiating with them
00:47:02.740 sometimes, right? I'll offer you X if you're behaving and otherwise we'll do Y. And here's
00:47:07.620 the, here's a carrot and here's a stick. I think your kids might be pretty good at poker.
00:47:11.440 I read parts of the book and I think I saw you citing, um, forgive me. I can't remember his first
00:47:18.180 name, Nash from a beautiful mind from Princeton who came up with game theory or the whole, you know,
00:47:24.260 it's all detailed, detailed beautifully in the movie, uh, played by Russell Crowe, but is his
00:47:29.240 theory actually important to your poker playing abilities and your assessment of your competitors?
00:47:35.680 Yeah. So game theory is basically about what are the conditions that emerge in a highly competitive
00:47:41.600 world? If I'm trying to apply my best strategy and you're trying to apply yours, then what's a
00:47:46.660 prediction for where we end up? And this is the whole basis for poker. The reason why you need
00:47:51.100 bluffing in poker is because you need an incentive for your opponent to pay you off when you claim
00:47:56.500 to have a strong hand. Um, that comes straight out of game theory and game theory is kind of one of
00:48:00.600 the foundational concepts of the book, but, but I like it because like I said, it gives people credit
00:48:04.660 for being intelligent. Sometimes I think politicians and political parties assume that they're the only
00:48:10.020 smart party in the room and the other party is stagnant and stuck in the mud. And, and, you know,
00:48:15.240 most recently that assumption hurt Trump by being very flat footed when the ticket was changed and
00:48:22.140 underestimating Democrats desire to win the election, even if that meant, you know, um, and
00:48:27.240 to be clear, people say, Oh, Joe Biden kind of nobly stepped aside. I mean, that's stretching it a lot,
00:48:34.320 right? He was, every ounce of pressure was put on him by Nancy Pelosi and others, which I think was the
00:48:40.100 correct strategic move, but there was a lot of pressure applied. And by the way, in 2020, Biden
00:48:45.240 got a lot of help from the party, Jim Clyburn endorsing him, um, all, you know, uh, Amy Klobuchar
00:48:50.920 and Pete Buttigieg dropping out and endorsing him and really boosting him very quickly after South
00:48:55.620 Carolina and after super Tuesday. So if the party wants you in the party, the party wants you out and
00:49:01.340 the democratic party for better and worse is a stronger capital P party than Republican party. The
00:49:06.880 democratic party gets what it wants. It might not always want the right things, but, but you know,
00:49:11.740 it it's, it's been smarter about, about Canada choice, I think. Oh, I think the Republicans are
00:49:17.160 jealous of that. I don't think you're wrong about that at all. I think a lot of Republican voters
00:49:20.700 who are much more individualists in these moments are more like, damn, why can't we behave more like 0.94
00:49:25.320 them that you get out of line, you get the stick, you get back in line, then they have an election 0.97
00:49:30.720 and they win. But I think team Trump should be listening to this, especially as they
00:49:34.220 go a little closer to that September 10th debate and a lower expectations for her, 0.85
00:49:39.900 which is not smart. Go back and look at her debate against my Mike Pence. She was good.
00:49:43.480 She was strong. I just watched it on Friday. Uh, they should be reading your book. Everyone should
00:49:47.960 be. It's called on the edge, the art of risking everything. Great stories in there about so many
00:49:55.520 colorful characters. Nate, thanks for being here. All the best to you. Of course. Thank you, Megan.
00:49:59.480 Okay. And we'll be right back after this. Some Americans enjoy using their credit cards
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00:50:40.940 Fresh off his massive ex conversation with former president Donald Trump, there are calls from abroad
00:50:46.440 to censor and potentially arrest Elon Musk because, you know, hate speech over in Europe is
00:50:53.980 illegal. You can't say offensive things or you might get arrested and God forbid you platform Donald
00:51:01.940 Trump and he insults some. This is so ridiculous. Elon responded perfectly. I'll tell you exactly what 0.99
00:51:09.440 happened. And college students are returning to campuses this month and there's a new plan for
00:51:14.540 how they will show their anti-Israel support for the Palestinians. Cutting class. Yes, they're going 0.65
00:51:22.600 to be doing massive like sick outs, I guess, which seems like an improvement on tentafata, but we'll
00:51:29.160 see. Commentators and co-authors of the fantastic book, Stolen Youth, Bethany Mandel and Carol Markowitz
00:51:36.460 join me now to discuss all these and more headlines. Bethany, Carol, welcome back.
00:51:41.700 Hi, Megan. So nice to be on with you again. Thanks for having us. Likewise. Okay. So I love that
00:51:47.700 Elon so upset the people over in the UK and Europe writ large that the EU is actually warning him. This
00:51:54.900 was ahead, ahead of the Trump conversation saying you better watch it tonight that you can't have any
00:52:03.680 incitements to violence or hate speech or racism. And, uh, if you do, you could potentially be
00:52:11.900 arrested. You're having that exact plan and arrest argued for in the paper today, suggesting really
00:52:19.080 that's the only thing that will make Elon listen to these international in particular European
00:52:23.380 constrictions on speech. And Elon's response, uh, to this was to fuck off. Um, I'll get the exact 1.00
00:52:31.820 quote. It was better than that. I think it was to be precise. Go fuck your face. That was
00:52:36.820 that was something about us that, that we just like let loose. I love when Megan curses with us. 1.00
00:52:44.440 I know every time I just trying to be accurate in my reporting of the story, Bethany. So, um,
00:52:52.720 how did you think it went last night and what do you make of the advanced leftist freak out about
00:52:59.400 the platforming of hate? I, he's one of the candidates running for president. Do the people
00:53:04.240 really think that he shouldn't be platformed? What country are we living in? And I, you know,
00:53:08.460 I love Elon using the F words. I love him using it creatively. That's all terrific. But you know,
00:53:13.840 I, I would say that we fought a war not to care what Europe thinks. And so here we are,
00:53:18.720 we shouldn't worry about their insane anti-free speech laws because we live in America. Elon is
00:53:25.600 now an American. This is not our problem anymore that you guys can't, you know, deal with the fact
00:53:30.880 that people will say things that you disagree with. We're a little bit past that. I listened to the,
00:53:35.540 the, the whole thing on X. I thought it was really excellent. Um, I'm actually, I don't love listening
00:53:40.880 to stuff like that. I'm not like every interview politically. I listened to that. I don't. Um,
00:53:45.860 and I really enjoyed that. It was casual. It was smart. I heard things that I'd never heard before
00:53:50.720 from Donald Trump. I thought it was excellent. Well done. Lots of listeners. I mean, they're saying
00:53:55.880 they had a billion listeners all ultimately impressive and amazing. I feel the need to
00:54:01.200 correct the record on that. They, they say there were a billion views. We don't know what that means.
00:54:06.080 I think a view is counted. Even if you scroll right past it. I mean, there's no way there were a
00:54:10.440 billion views of that actual watches of that last night, because if there were, it would be the
00:54:15.220 lead story in every newspaper and publication worldwide. Like that's just not, that's not,
00:54:21.740 but I'm sure there were tons of eyeballs. It's just, this is an X marketing device that they use
00:54:27.860 to try to boost whatever big thing they're getting behind. That's just for the record. Um, so Bethany,
00:54:34.760 um, by the way, it was in the guardian and it was an ex Twitter boss who said he has a way of grabbing
00:54:40.820 Elon's attention. If he keeps stirring unrest, it doesn't like some of his, uh, posts on what's
00:54:46.440 happening in London, get an arrest warrant. And same thing talking about how, uh, it was clear
00:54:52.560 from my eight years at the platform that there's something lost in translation between British
00:54:56.420 interpretations of free speech and those parroted by a U S libertarian interpretation of the concept.
00:55:02.880 Correct, sir. Correct. There is, there is something lost in translation. It's called
00:55:07.920 the U S constitution. And that's what we follow over here. We don't follow your definitions of a
00:55:12.620 hate speech. Thank God, as Carol points out, whole war was fought to get rid of those shackles.
00:55:17.820 Yeah, no, thank God. I mean, what was really interesting to me was that all of these folks who
00:55:22.220 were, you know, preemptively up in arms about anything that could be said, um, none of them have
00:55:28.520 listened to Elon Musk's talk. They've never listened to Donald Trump talk. They have this
00:55:34.080 caricature in their minds of what these folks sound like that is, has no basis in reality. Um,
00:55:40.020 and I was really disturbed watching a lot of these individuals who like DEI is their entire personality.
00:55:45.780 They're always talking about inclusivity and blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. And as soon as they actually
00:55:52.360 heard Elon Musk speak, they said, Oh, this is rambling. He sounds like an idiot. He's on the 1.00
00:55:58.960 spectrum. He talks about being on the spectrum and all of their, their sweet talk about inclusivity
00:56:05.080 went out the window. The second and actually autistic individual got onto a platform in which 0.55
00:56:10.740 he could speak freely. I thought it was really disturbing, uh, and really instructive about how,
00:56:16.740 how committed they actually are to inclusivity. Uh, they're not,
00:56:21.120 but don't forget Bethany joy. This is the joy party. It's having such a good time.
00:56:26.980 I just want to add also that a Washington post reporter also tried to shut down this conversation.
00:56:33.020 He asked Corrine, uh, you know, the, the spokeswoman at the, at the white house.
00:56:36.600 Oh, we have this. Hold on here. Let me play it. Let me play it. And then you react on the back end.
00:56:40.520 So yes, for the audience, this is a Washington post reporter at the white house press briefing 0.96
00:56:44.380 asking Corrine Jean-Pierre, one of the dumbest questions we've ever heard. Here it is. 0.97
00:56:48.680 Elon Musk is slated to interview Donald Trump tomorrow, tonight, um, on, on X. Uh, I don't
00:56:55.100 know if the president is going to tune in. Feel free to say if he is or not. Um, but I, I think
00:57:00.900 that, um, misinformation on Twitter is not just a campaign issue. It's a, you know, it's a America
00:57:07.380 issue. Uh, what role does the white house, uh, or the president have in sort of stopping that
00:57:14.800 or stopping the spread of that or, um, sort of inter intervening in that. Some of that was about
00:57:20.240 campaign misinformation, but you know, it's a wider thing, right? Yeah, no, I mean, you've heard
00:57:24.360 us talk about this many times from here about the responsibilities that social media platforms have,
00:57:30.100 uh, when it comes to misinformation, disinformation. 1.00
00:57:33.220 That person asking the question is an idiot, Carol, an absolute idiot. I can't believe that 1.00
00:57:40.440 he considers himself a member of the press and it works for the Washington post. Go ahead.
00:57:46.420 It's crazy. I mean, I think that we used to have at least some faith that these people weren't full
00:57:52.680 on lackeys the way they are, but the last like two months have really opened some eyes. I don't just
00:57:57.940 say people who are like political, like the three of us were, were really involved. I hear from people
00:58:02.100 all the time that how can I believe anything that this media is telling me because Joe Biden was
00:58:07.400 hidden from view. We were told he was totally fine. He's not totally fine. Then they just swap
00:58:12.300 him out. I think all of that has really broken trust with kind of more normie people who maybe
00:58:17.960 don't follow things quite as closely as we do. And then hearing this kind of question, uh, in the
00:58:23.120 white house to say, how can we shut down speech that we don't like is just unbelievable. It's
00:58:30.240 un-American. It's unacceptable. So one of the best known, most famous, richest men in the world, 1.00
00:58:39.340 somebody who's created, I don't know how many thousands, hundreds of thousands of American
00:58:43.600 jobs. Elon Musk wants to have a public conversation with the man who was president and is running to be
00:58:50.540 president again. And the question at the white house by a member of the white house press corps is
00:58:54.480 what are you going to do to stop it? What are you Kareem Jean-Pierre going to do to stop it and
00:59:00.960 rein in the misinformation in this press conference, in this, in this conversation that I wasn't invited
00:59:08.400 to. I mean, he could listen, but then I'm not allowed to participate in. See, I am the gatekeeper.
00:59:12.760 That's what he's saying. I get to decide what the parameters are. And I feel really uncomfortable
00:59:17.980 when people are going outside of my controlled circles, like to X with Elon and having a free
00:59:24.500 flowing conversation, Bethany. He's literally, you can see he's uncomfortable with it.
00:59:29.120 Yeah, no, it's, it's, it's completely authoritarian. And what's, what's been interesting having Elon take
00:59:34.480 over X was seeing, you know, we thought we had free speech in this country and then watching
00:59:40.220 the Twitter files come out and seeing, wow, they, they absolutely silenced people who were against
00:59:48.260 all the COVID restrictions. They, they actively worked with the government in order to make sure
00:59:55.140 that people could not speak freely. But I'm thinking back to remember the tips line that Obama had
01:00:02.180 during Obamacare, they've always footsied with this authoritarian stuff where, you know, report,
01:00:07.860 don't, don't, don't, don't be afraid to report misinformation. And we are the determiner of what
01:00:13.820 misinformation is. We saw that really, really balloon during COVID. One of the disturbing things
01:00:21.280 that I heard again and again from doctors when we were researching stolen youth was that they said
01:00:26.520 that the medical associations were making it possible for them to lose their licenses if they spoke
01:00:34.640 misinformation about COVID. And then that definition of misinformation then spread to misinformation
01:00:41.340 about reproductive rights. And you could not give misinformation about reproductive rights if you
01:00:47.480 were an OBGYN. So all of this stuff, all of this authoritarian leanings, it has been going on for 10 years,
01:00:53.700 but really, really hit the gas during COVID.
01:00:57.100 It's, I mean, the conversation was fascinating. I said before on the show, to me, Trump was too rambly.
01:01:02.480 You just got to write tight, Trump, write tight, keep it tight. It's too long. You can't follow.
01:01:10.080 And I'm in the business, you know? So it's like regular civilians are like, I only have a limited
01:01:15.920 amount of time for this. I got to put my kids to bed. I got to get ready for work. You got to write
01:01:20.080 tight anyway. But there were some fascinating exchanges. Here was one in which Trump was trying
01:01:24.840 to make the case against Kamala. Obviously, what's happening sort of overnight is they're rewriting
01:01:31.940 history and making Kamala sound like a moderate when in fact she is far left, like far, far left. 1.00
01:01:38.680 Worse than Bernie Sanders. She is considered more liberal by far than Bernie Sanders. She's a radical 1.00
01:01:45.380 left lunatic. And if she's going to be our president very quickly, you're not going to have a country 1.00
01:01:51.180 anymore. And she'll go back to all of the things that she believes in. She believes in defunding
01:01:55.960 the police. She believes in no fracking. Zero. Now all of a sudden she's saying, no, I will. I
01:02:03.140 really want to see fracking the day that if they got in the day she got in, she'll end fracking. 1.00
01:02:10.780 OK, now here's this is my lead up to the next topic. So that was good. That was actually solid
01:02:17.680 by Trump. Not rambling up and down on a point. Hit her on a few different things. Good, good,
01:02:22.360 good. But too often what we get is the rallies or these long rambling, you know, 90 minute
01:02:29.920 rhetorical journeys. They don't get anywhere near the pickup that they once got. You know,
01:02:36.520 the channels aren't just putting them on TV like they did in 16 because he was a ratings machine
01:02:41.080 that's either not working anymore or they've just finally realized that that's actually not
01:02:46.220 appropriate. I said it in 16 and I'll say it again. You shouldn't just take one side's rallies
01:02:50.560 and put them on television. That's not that's not OK for journalists. But anyway,
01:02:56.000 he's not getting the pickup he wants. And the polls are not looking anywhere near as strong for Trump
01:03:02.200 as they were. It shows a very tight race. The latest New York Times Siena poll shows it's her race
01:03:06.500 by four points in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. That's not good. Enter Peter Navarro.
01:03:13.640 Peter Navarro. I mean, a Trump loyalist. He went to jail because he was held in contempt of Congress
01:03:19.000 for not giving up Trump state secrets. You know, his conversations with Trump around J6 and he's out
01:03:26.180 of jail. He's sitting in for another man who's in jail for the same alleged crime. That's Steve Bannon
01:03:30.980 hosting War Room. And Peter Navarro, who's I mean, he loves Trump, obviously.
01:03:36.360 Had the following to say about Trump, the polls and messaging. I think it's very interesting. Listen.
01:03:44.880 The problem you have with with giant figures like Donald Trump
01:03:51.680 is that people may tend to tell him what he wants to hear rather than what he needs to hear.
01:04:02.360 But clearly, the last three weeks have been difficult. There was a decision made to
01:04:09.520 debate Biden prior to him being crowned the nominee. And I'm sure there were good and
01:04:17.480 bad pro and con reasons for that. But you can at least say in hindsight that that was a catastrophic
01:04:27.720 error. It's not just less than 90 days to the election. It's less than half that to early
01:04:36.260 voting. The question is, what is the strategy going to be? Roughly half of the Trump rally speech
01:04:44.820 now is usually scripted red meat for the Trump base. And the current rally formula is simply
01:04:52.560 not sufficiently focused on the very stark policy differences, policy differences between him
01:05:00.660 and Kamala Harris. When Trump attacks Harris personally, rather than on policy,
01:05:08.100 Harris's support among swing voters rises.
01:05:11.940 What do you make of it? Does he have a good point, Carol? Start with you.
01:05:17.140 Absolutely. Yeah. I mean, look, I think that anybody who wants Donald Trump to win would tell
01:05:23.680 him, run on the issues. Your support will rise if you remind people that just before, you know,
01:05:31.920 COVID, their lives were going great. Economy was going great. The country was going in a good
01:05:36.660 direction. No wars, et cetera. He has an argument to make, but he keeps falling back into this childish
01:05:42.980 name calling, you know, nickname giving thing that resonates with his base. But the base is already
01:05:49.200 there. They're already coming to vote for him. He doesn't need that. He needs a swing voter who's
01:05:54.060 saying, wow, I'm actually thinking about voting for Donald Trump. But then he keeps pushing them away.
01:05:58.560 I think that it's absolutely correct that he can win those voters on the issues. But he keeps playing
01:06:06.380 these games. I just don't know. And the funny thing is, you know, the Trump campaign keeps saying that
01:06:11.280 Kamala is not talking to the press and like they keep pointing this out. Trump should maybe talk to
01:06:16.380 the press just a little bit less, like a little bit less press, a little bit more, you know, talking to
01:06:22.440 union workers in Michigan and trying to get their vote, a little less talking to The New York Times.
01:06:26.880 Well, here was Peter Navarro's prescription, Bethany, which is equally interesting.
01:06:31.740 He says, first idea, the former president immediately begins entering into an interactive
01:06:37.380 jumbotron policy dialogue with Harris. Once Kamala's words are played, then Trump offers his side. And
01:06:47.920 most importantly, he says Trump offers a set of concrete solutions. That's one. Two, before each rally,
01:06:53.760 Trump should hold a press conference with different officials on different issues. Example,
01:06:58.920 Rick Grinnell on foreign policy. And they get into specifically what happened during Biden-Harris
01:07:04.740 and what Trump would do differently were he to be placed in the Oval Office again. Third,
01:07:09.960 insert his own remarks with American citizens harmed by the Biden-Harris administration policies.
01:07:15.580 Like in Pennsylvania, you'd have fracking workers who have lost their jobs. Like put that in the
01:07:21.040 middle of the rallies. That could get some pickup. Fourth, rallies must start on time and only last 0.62
01:07:27.360 55 minutes. Less is more. This is back to my right type, right type. What do you, I mean,
01:07:34.820 Bethany, that's so simple. Do we have a person in Donald Trump who is capable of taking this advice?
01:07:41.720 So during the debate, we saw a disciplined Donald Trump that we had never seen before. That Donald
01:07:48.380 Trump was killing it. We have not really seen that discipline since the assassination attempt.
01:07:56.440 Unless I think, I think he's rattled. Someone can't shoot at your head and shoot you through the air and
01:08:01.760 not get rattled. So I think there is definitely that component of it. I was really frustrated and I
01:08:07.640 actually wrote a column for Newsweek and it came out today about J.D. Vance, because I think a lot
01:08:13.080 of these criticisms can be made of the vice presidential candidate as well. He went on all
01:08:17.600 the Sunday shows and he talked about how Kamala Harris, you know, all of his, his woman comments
01:08:23.800 were indicative of the fact that Kamala Harris is anti-family, which I think she is. And I think the 1.00
01:08:29.280 Democratic Party is. But the fact is he sat there and said that his prescription was a $5,000 child's
01:08:36.640 tax credit. And, you know, as a mother of six, I'm like more than all for that. But he, he skipped
01:08:44.120 the vote. There was a vote for an increased child tax credit a week and a half ago and he skipped the
01:08:50.260 vote. And so I'm sitting there thinking, you, you, you have the opportunity to do that as a legislator
01:08:57.200 right now. Just like when people say to Kamala Harris, like I, all of these lofty goals, you're in
01:09:02.240 office right now, you could be doing these things. I say the same to J.D. Vance. And he gave another
01:09:07.160 example of, um, it was the child tax credits and then COVID. And he sat there talking about all of
01:09:13.740 the excesses that happened in blue states. And nobody talked about that more than the three of us.
01:09:18.640 But all of those policies about masks were written by the CDC under the Trump White House. I have,
01:09:26.400 as a journalist, tried to figure out who wrote those policies. Why did they differ from the WHO?
01:09:31.800 Because the WHO said that kids should be wearing masks much older when they're more developmentally
01:09:37.260 ready to do that. I have never gotten an answer about why the CDC under president Trump
01:09:42.580 differed so drastically from the WHO. And so when I did control to Fauci and all of his, you know,
01:09:50.080 band of brothers and sisters there who are so zealous, but wait, I, I do want to say something
01:09:54.240 about the child tax credit, because I will confess to you. I've paid almost no attention to that debate,
01:09:58.380 but J.D. Vance raised it when he was on my show and he keeps raising it. So I actually did start
01:10:03.480 looking into it. The reason he didn't show up, I'm sure I, this is this piece of speculation.
01:10:07.500 He didn't show up for the vote. It was defeated by the Republican Senate, uh, by the Republicans in
01:10:11.720 the Senate. And the reason the Republicans came out against that child tax credit as proposed,
01:10:17.600 and you still have a child tax credit, but they were going to revise and change it a bit,
01:10:21.540 uh, was because they said, you've, you've changed it from like a, a tax rebate that you would get
01:10:29.640 upon paying taxes to just a gift. It's no longer under the Democrats new plan linked to income.
01:10:38.060 It's like, it's not going to be a write-off under the new proposal. It's just going to be a gift,
01:10:42.460 which looks like welfare, which Republicans oppose. And there was a long piece in national review by
01:10:47.720 Marco Rubio a couple of months ago that really laid out a strong case for why that wasn't a good
01:10:52.400 bill. They let, he likes the child tax credit and Republicans like they're the ones who raised it
01:10:56.180 from 1000 to 2000 back in 17, but they were saying this is a bad proposal because it changes it into
01:11:02.640 sheer welfare. Yeah. I mean, I think it was frustrating that he didn't show up and that there
01:11:08.700 wasn't a conversation. And so they seated the ground on this whole conversation to Democrats.
01:11:13.620 They made it look really bad because they blocked it and there was no viable alternative offered on
01:11:20.420 the floor. He just didn't show up. And I recognizing he is running for vice president,
01:11:25.580 but it's not a good look when you're sitting there saying my solution is X and you don't show up to the
01:11:31.640 vote and you don't have anything to say, nor has he said anything publicly that I've seen. And I wrote
01:11:36.040 a column about it. I got to hear more from JD on why he didn't show up, but it wouldn't have mattered.
01:11:40.580 They, the, it went down by I think four or five votes. So his vote would not have made the
01:11:44.900 difference. And I have to say personally, I'm against that. I am against that kind of wealth.
01:11:49.080 Like it should be tied to income. That's bullshit. We shouldn't just be handing out with all due, 0.99
01:11:52.440 with all due respect to you and your six kids. You shouldn't just get a check because you have
01:11:56.400 six kids. It should be tied to income, which is what the Republicans did. They was originally tried 0.91
01:12:00.120 to try tied to income tax, sheer income tax. Then they added in your social security tax payments
01:12:05.680 that it could work against, which was good, good for parents. And then the Democrats were like,
01:12:10.360 let's forget all of that. Just give like, and that just seems like a vote getting welfare mechanism
01:12:14.320 that generally Republicans would not support and didn't hear. Um, okay. So let's keep going because
01:12:19.480 I just had on Nate silver hit. He sounded the alarm the other way. Like don't panic. Carol was what he
01:12:26.120 was saying. He's like, yes, she's got what I think it was a 56% probability of winning right now to
01:12:32.100 Trump's. He she's 46. He's, uh, he's 46. He's 54. You know what I'm trying to say? 54, 46. Um,
01:12:39.500 don't panic though, because it's early and because she's still in the honeymoon period,
01:12:44.080 which is going to go into this convention, but then things will settle down. The other side of
01:12:47.760 the ledger is as Peter Navarro was saying, early voting begins in weeks. And this media seems
01:12:53.640 determined to just run cover for her and all of her leftist Marxist policies, not to mention waltzes 0.98
01:13:03.500 walls is until we get past the point of docking banking, real votes.
01:13:11.940 Yeah. Well, I would say that like Nate silver, I play poker. So when it's 53 47 and I have the 53,
01:13:19.260 I don't feel great about it. I don't feel great about it until the hands over. So I don't think
01:13:23.980 anybody should be resting on any laurels on either side right now. I think there was a moment in the
01:13:28.500 Trump campaign where they thought they were unstoppable. And then obviously they swapped
01:13:32.720 out Joe Biden for Kamala Harris, injected a new enthusiasm into the race for the Dems. Um,
01:13:37.900 anything could happen and look, they're going into their convention. The Democrats are going to have
01:13:42.080 their convention. I'm sure they're going to get a bump out of it. Um, you know, unless the,
01:13:45.360 the Hamas next take it over and really make it a disaster that it might become. Um, and the Trump 0.97
01:13:51.300 campaign has to be ready for this. They can't just say we are comfortable with where we are.
01:13:57.420 I think neither side could really say that, but I think for a long time, the Trump campaign just was
01:14:01.080 on a trajectory where they didn't think anything could stop them. So I don't think anybody should
01:14:06.580 be comfortable right now. I don't think either side should be resting. Um, I, I'm them I'm in,
01:14:11.440 you know, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania over and over and over again.
01:14:16.740 Don't forget. I do think this, this anti-Israel thing could be interesting, um, with these 0.79
01:14:25.000 protesters. I don't, I think we will have protesters at the DNC. I, do you guys think
01:14:29.340 that they staved that off just by picking walls? No, absolutely not. What I think is interesting is
01:14:35.700 at the RNC, there was a hostage family there that the crowd let a cheer, bring them home that
01:14:42.480 and they were family, they were family, the parents of an American hostage. And that's what happened at
01:14:48.340 the RNC. I think though, if they, if hostage family goes to the DNC, they need security. Not
01:14:54.600 only are they not going to be cheering, bring them home, but the DNC need to make sure that family
01:14:58.860 members of hostages being held in Gaza, Americans need to have security. That really is indicative of a
01:15:05.680 real rot within the democratic party. Well, you think they will have a family member of a hostage?
01:15:11.880 I mean, they should, but who knows? I don't think so. But I think there will be protests in Chicago
01:15:18.280 because look, they already protested her on the trail post picking walls. So they're going to be
01:15:23.320 there. They're not, they didn't put that story to bed. And I do think it's interesting though,
01:15:27.360 Carol, that this plan by these young democratic socialists of America, those are the ones who were
01:15:32.480 literally in the streets of New York celebrating on 10 seven, literally celebrating the death of all
01:15:38.100 the Jews. Yay. This is before any retaliatory campaign. That's the group. So now they're
01:15:44.020 getting their act back together because campuses are opening back up. And this new thing that I said
01:15:48.340 in the intro is like a sick out of kind and they're predicting. And I'm quoting here from the piece that
01:15:55.040 was in the free press. No one can ignore large swathes of empty classrooms. No one can just turn
01:16:02.700 around and plug their ears when the university can no longer call itself a university. I'm not sure
01:16:10.780 they're not there. I think I just keep going on teaching my class and ignoring them.
01:16:15.660 I mean, first of all, I wish I had come up with a cause that I could strike out for in college and
01:16:21.560 not get penalized. I think that that's really where I went wrong in my college career, but that's
01:16:26.420 really the thing. These colleges already have rules about attending classes or about how many classes
01:16:31.960 you need to get to, or about the work you need to get done. And yet they're overlooking these rules
01:16:36.940 for these protesters. So at some point the protesters are not wrong. The colleges are responsible here.
01:16:43.540 Are they going to hold these students accountable for not showing up to class for days and weeks at a
01:16:48.300 time, or aren't they? And I think that this is the problem in so many facets of our society. I think
01:16:54.080 that we don't enforce rules that already exist. We don't enforce laws that already exist. I was in
01:16:59.380 Singapore this summer, not saying we should cane anybody, but everybody comes back from Singapore 1.00
01:17:03.940 saying, oh, it's so clean. It's so nice. It's so law abiding. They have largely the same laws about
01:17:08.680 littering and everything else that we do. They just enforce those laws. So the colleges need to understand
01:17:14.500 that we're going to be looking at them and saying, are you going to enforce the rules or do these
01:17:19.240 protesters get a pass for not going to class for weeks at a time? Yeah. I mean, it's an interesting
01:17:24.660 dynamic though, Bethany, because I don't, that won't have the visual effect that the tentafata did,
01:17:29.480 which I think she'll be very grateful for. Go ahead. Yeah. No, Rutgers University at,
01:17:35.660 at the orientation and I went to Rutgers and it's a garbage school and no one should go there,
01:17:39.400 but it's for this reason. They, they had protests at orientation and parents were like, 0.72
01:17:46.020 what's going on? Like they don't enforce policies. At the end of the day, they need the visual. They
01:17:51.320 need something. But so much of what all of these protests were was performative and it was about
01:17:58.660 status. And it was about, you know, you're in with the right line of thinking. It, it, they don't
01:18:04.220 actually believe what they were saying. And if they did, they would be in the streets protesting for
01:18:08.480 Bangladesh right now. They don't actually care about any of this stuff. And that's what's most 1.00
01:18:13.180 disturbing to me. That this is what Douglas Murray has been saying. And he's in trouble over in the UK.
01:18:21.820 They're trying to cancel him yet again. I mean, truly there's no more courageous, effective truth
01:18:28.760 teller in the world than Douglas Murray. He's my number one. I listen to him with bated breath.
01:18:36.460 I try not to breathe. I try not to let my stomach growl. I just listen. Like I have to take every
01:18:44.040 word of this in everything he says is so spot on. And one of the things he was saying was that if this
01:18:53.720 really were about their heartstrings being pulled for the poor Palestinians, we would see protests
01:19:00.800 everywhere. We'd see protests in Yemen. We'd see protests in China where they're undertaking a
01:19:08.000 genocide against Muslim Uyghurs. None of it. Lebanon. Yeah. Over and over. It's about Jews and they'll find 1.00
01:19:17.420 a different reason to tell us that we need to hate the Jews and the Jews are bad depending on the news 0.99
01:19:22.200 cycle. But he has seen through that. And he's also been very critical of the UK immigration policy. 0.98
01:19:28.440 And so now his haters are trying to blame what's happening in the UK streets on him. We can get
01:19:34.160 into that in more detail. Yeah, I think that what they're doing to Douglas Murray is indicative of how
01:19:41.460 afraid they are of his arguments. His book that came out, I think it's several years ago now, he's
01:19:46.820 getting for a book that predicted the problems that Britain was going to go through. And so him being
01:19:53.440 kind of a fortune teller of where the things were going to go, which I think was obvious to a lot of,
01:19:58.720 you know, right thinking people has gotten him into trouble. And we're going back to our first
01:20:03.160 conversation on the show where, you know, they don't have the kind of free speech protections that
01:20:07.820 we do. So a book written several years ago, inciting violence today is something that potentially
01:20:13.980 makes sense to, to, you know, the British left. And that's terrifying. And look, Douglas Murray is ours
01:20:20.380 now. They can't have him anymore. I think we should make him American as quick as possible. 1.00
01:20:25.360 Maybe that's the first thing you should do. He should. That's exactly right. He, um, he was making
01:20:31.260 the point, and we're going to get into this a little bit, uh, in more detail later this week,
01:20:35.060 but he was making the point in an interview a few years back and promoting the book that he's sick and
01:20:42.340 tired of these protesters, uh, coming to the UK or to America only to tell us how much they 0.95
01:20:50.180 hate our guts and how shitty our countries are and how they want us to, I guess, obey Sharia law. 1.00
01:20:57.320 They do actually say that in some of these protests. And he, in the perfectly indignant 0.99
01:21:03.060 Douglas Murray tone took on that among other points. I'll just play you a little. Here's
01:21:07.940 sod 18. I don't want them to live here. I don't want them here. They came under false pretences. 1.00
01:21:15.780 Many of them came illegally and continue to come illegally. And we don't want them here. 1.00
01:21:21.780 And I'm perfectly willing to say that because it needs to be said. If I hated Australia, hated the
01:21:30.260 Australian people, hated Australian history, hated the Australian way of life, broke into the country 1.00
01:21:35.700 illegally and spent my time trying to undermine Australia. Why should I be in Australia? Why?
01:21:41.540 What would I have brought the country? What benefit? What moral benefit? What financial benefit? What
01:21:48.340 social benefit? The answer is you'd have brought no benefit. So why, why just hope that those people
01:21:57.540 are not in large enough numbers and keep your fingers crossed and put it off for another day?
01:22:02.340 I think we have to start saying very clearly, if you don't like it here, go.
01:22:10.100 And if you don't like it here and you intend to make it worse, we will make you go.
01:22:14.500 Yes. Yes. So sane. Yeah.
01:22:20.180 Yep. I mean, the same with all these campus protesters here on, on visas.
01:22:24.820 Yes. So Douglas Murray is a threat because he's such an effective truth teller and he just keeps
01:22:32.420 saying more truths, which bother, uh, you know, the leftists, but he's putting his thumb on exactly
01:22:38.100 the right problem because it's not just a UK problem. It's absolutely a problem here. That's
01:22:43.060 the guy we need making our case over on the right for the reason why we can't have four more years
01:22:49.300 of Kamala Harris. We need those points being made, Bethany. You know, it's like,
01:22:54.020 this is my frustration with Trump. You know, I just, when I hear him do the rambling wind up and
01:23:01.300 it's fine, like Peter Navarro is right. The red meat for the base is entertaining, but he's there with
01:23:07.460 him. They're with him. You need those kinds of arguments being made about how, what a terrible
01:23:14.740 position we've all been put in because of our open border and how now things are going to get
01:23:21.060 more explosive. We just saw a woman get, get raped at gunpoint this week in New York in front of her
01:23:28.020 spouse or fiance. We're going to have more just like it. If we continue these open border policies
01:23:35.700 and her statements now that she's some sort of a border hawk are not to be believed.
01:23:41.140 Yeah. Yeah. I thought that one of the best portions of the space last night with Elon Musk
01:23:47.220 was when Trump talked about October 7th. And he said, you know, that can happen here. And I think
01:23:53.060 that that's, that's a lot of why Americans are not paying attention to the fact that Americans are
01:23:58.420 being held in Gaza, because we think that we're somehow immune. We're not immune. We have people
01:24:03.060 coming over the border who are threats to national security, who want to commit another 10,
01:24:07.700 seven here. September 11th was history for a lot of people, but there are a lot of voters who remember
01:24:14.260 that day and they'll never forget it. And we need to put back, put, put on our, our go back machine
01:24:21.060 and remember those moments. Remember that feeling because we can have that here. Um, and if we continue
01:24:27.780 these open border policies, we're absolutely going to see a replay of October 7th here.
01:24:31.700 You know, not only has she been pretty squishy on Israel and this whole conflict, but she chooses Tim
01:24:39.700 Walsh. And in the news this week is the fact that he's, he's apparently pretty tight with this guy
01:24:48.100 in Minnesota. Hold on. I want to make sure I get his name correct. Um, Imam Assad Zaman. He is a
01:24:57.060 quote, Hitler promoting Imam, according to the DC examiner, a master teacher, according to Tim Walsh.
01:25:05.860 Uh, and he offered Tim Walsh lessons over some period of time. Tim Walsh admits they quote spent
01:25:13.140 time together in which he was giving Tim Walsh some sort of lessons. And this is a guy who
01:25:19.940 is apparently a big fan of Adolf Hitler and Walsh has appeared with him several times. He's a local
01:25:27.400 Muslim leader in Minnesota. He has justified Hamas terrorist violence. Um, reading here from a 0.87
01:25:34.100 Breitbart piece, which is quoting the Washington examiner. And this pro Hitler thing is because 0.78
01:25:39.100 he shared a film on social media that is some six hours long and just kind of re-imagines Hitler
01:25:45.700 as just, I guess in the way Tim Walsh re-imagines socialism as something that's just neighborly.
01:25:50.460 It re-imagines Hitler as just something who's like some guy who's kind of a vuncular, you know, 0.54
01:25:54.940 I don't know, Carol, but every day we get a new piece of info that doesn't suggest is going to be
01:26:00.800 a very particularly friendly administration toward, uh, our friends in Israel.
01:26:05.520 Well, that's, I feel like absolutely right. And I, Trump hit the Israel point several times last night
01:26:11.280 in a bunch of different ways. I mean, as you said, he mentioned, he tied it to the border.
01:26:15.700 Um, he talked about the fact that if he was president, you know, he doesn't think October
01:26:19.060 7th would have happened, et cetera. I think it's on his mind in a way that I think that with
01:26:25.160 democratic ticket, it's on their mind as like, how much can we minimize this so that we don't
01:26:29.820 get in trouble talking about it. And this is the kind of thing where the Tim Walsh and the,
01:26:34.460 and this Imam, these are the people that they're openly courting. And you can't deny that those are
01:26:40.620 the people who are going to be disrupting the convention. I think that that's exactly where they're
01:26:44.560 afraid to go and they're afraid to talk about this topic. So they end up, you know, having,
01:26:49.840 having these crazies in the party, in the tent, interrupting them and screaming at them. Now,
01:26:54.840 of course the media has been papering over these interruptions and Oh, Kamala, isn't she so,
01:27:01.060 you know, just so cool in the way that she shuts them down. But I'm going to have a hard time seeing
01:27:05.880 her shut down a lot of them. And that's going to be a much tougher thing for the media to cover up. 0.99
01:27:10.920 So I think that we're in a situation where a lot of the policies that they're pushing are
01:27:16.720 specifically tied to not having these conversations.
01:27:22.000 Here's Tim Walsh speaking about this Imam, Bethany. He's on camera, 15.
01:27:27.200 I would like to, first of all, say thank you to Imam. I am a teacher. So when I see a master teacher,
01:27:36.140 I know it. And over the time we've spent together, one of the things, one of the things I've had the
01:27:43.940 privilege of is seeing the things in life through the eye of a master teacher to try and get the
01:27:49.840 understanding. So he's a big fan of this guy who, for the record, this Imam, after a one party leader
01:27:57.280 in Minnesota posted on 10-7 that he was beyond heartbroken to see what happened in Israel and
01:28:02.220 that he knew some of the people who, and they were brutally killed or kidnapped. This guy responded
01:28:07.120 that the person expressing the sympathy and his group cannot be joined at the hip to apartheid Israel
01:28:14.940 and still hope to count the Muslim vote. That was in response to a 10-7 post that was expressing
01:28:21.740 sadness for what had happened. This is exactly the kind of thing that used to be able to ruin an
01:28:28.060 entire campaign. But when you have all of the media running cover for you, it's fine. He won't
01:28:33.500 even be asked about it. That's the overwhelming likelihood here. So it's funny because Gabe Kaminsky
01:28:40.980 at the Washington Examiner uncovered this stuff within like, I don't know, a week and a half since
01:28:45.060 he was named the vice presidential nominee. So my question is, was he vetted? If he was and this was
01:28:51.640 found and they decided to run with him anyway, that's terrifying. My suspicion is they thought that
01:28:57.720 they were going to go with Josh Shapiro until there was such a insurrection within the Democratic Party
01:29:04.000 that God forbid that they choose someone with the last name Shapiro that they pivoted at the last
01:29:08.420 minute to Waltz and they didn't do their research. The fact that they didn't choose Shapiro when the
01:29:14.200 reality is a lot of his policies and public statements about Israel mirrored that of Waltz is because he's
01:29:20.520 Jewish. There is a real fundamental problem within the Democratic Party. And we've heard Canales say
01:29:27.680 about these protesters, I understand the emotion. I understand where they're coming from.
01:29:33.060 It's wildly inappropriate for an American president to be saying that when one of our closest allies
01:29:39.700 is facing an existential war for its survival, that can come to our shores tomorrow.
01:29:44.740 Yeah. And not to mention the people she felt such sympathy for are tearing down posters of American
01:29:52.280 hostages, like, and is Israel hostages, including babies. And it's, oh, I understand your anger. Really?
01:30:01.300 Well, not in that context. No. All right. Stand by. Quick break. Back with more. Bethany and Carol. Stay with me.
01:30:06.280 I'm Megan Kelly, host of The Megan Kelly Show on Sirius XM. It's your home for open, honest,
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01:31:05.320 So it appears that no good deed goes unpunished because even though J.D. Vance wrote this bestselling
01:31:16.300 book, Hillbilly Elegy, that was made into a film by Ron Howard that cast Glenn Close in the iconic role
01:31:25.240 of J.D.'s Mamaw. Glenn Close is not grateful for any of those opportunities because, by the way,
01:31:33.100 for which she was nominated for an Academy Award, a Golden Globe, and a Screen Actors Guild Award
01:31:40.460 because today she's out there taking shots at J.D. Vance because Hollywood leftists are going to do 1.00
01:31:47.340 their leftist thing. She posted on her Instagram on Monday a photo of herself and her cat. You know
01:31:55.960 where this is going. The message was Eve would have left a bleeding mouse head in the bed of anyone who 1.00
01:32:02.440 criticized any kind of lady with a cat. Now, of course, the media is loving it. Carol, you've got
01:32:10.560 Vanity Fair, Huffington Post, Deadline, New York Magazine, all out there with headlines along the
01:32:17.380 lines of New York mags, which was Glenn Close and her cat bite back at J.D. Vance. To me, this is just
01:32:23.760 so gross. You got all those awards because he told his family story and you played someone who is so 0.92
01:32:29.400 important to him. And by the way, the whole point of his stories about her were to show you the
01:32:37.040 importance of the most powerful female in his life, the woman who shaped him more than any other
01:32:44.820 to whom the whole book is an homage. But you can't see through that. You've got to essentially attack
01:32:51.420 him as being a misogynist because of the cat comment. It's absurd. It's sort of funny. Well, 0.55
01:32:57.960 first of all, I would say that the Glenn Closes of the world have to tell their team that they're still 0.96
01:33:03.240 part of the squad. I know I did the movie where I played Meemaw or whatever. And I know that that
01:33:10.360 makes me possibly aligned with J.D. Vance somehow. But I want you to know that I would never and here's
01:33:16.320 my cat and I will speak out against this man. It's a way of keeping them in line, right? I think that
01:33:22.080 that's how Hollywood polices each other. But of course, there's no waiting for the media to be fair.
01:33:29.440 And I think that they love covering this kind of thing. Celine Dion asked them not to play,
01:33:34.420 you know, one of her songs at their rallies. And it was just all over the media. They just enjoy so
01:33:39.660 much covering these meaningless squabbles because they can't cover what Kamala is saying. She's not
01:33:46.080 really saying anything. So this is what they do instead. I just I think it's just so nasty. Honestly,
01:33:53.060 like I had this Bethany, I've told a story before, but like Charlize Theron and her friends basically
01:33:58.560 cribbed my entire book for that movie Bombshell. And she played yours truly. And then on her press 0.57
01:34:03.540 tour, she went on out and kept dumping on me. It was like, first of all, you stole my book. You 0.69
01:34:09.400 stole my very intimate story. And you didn't pay me anything, not that it was for sale. And then you
01:34:14.920 like and you took all this time to play this story. You took absolutely no time to actually get to know
01:34:20.220 what me. And then you decided to just spend your whole press tour dumping on me. Like what the
01:34:25.480 Hollywood is disgusting. Just take your fucking award and slink away. 1.00
01:34:30.620 Yeah. I mean, it makes them look bad at the end of the day. It's not it doesn't it doesn't 1.00
01:34:35.520 impact my impression of J.D. Vance seeing Glenn Close do that. I look at that and I think that's
01:34:40.720 trashy and that's a trashy move on all of their parts on Glenn Close's part, all of them. And
01:34:46.460 all of this stuff is what makes people want to vote for Trump, because this like elitist, 1.00
01:34:53.680 holier than thou, like bullshit that they do makes me hate them and makes me want to see them lose. 0.99
01:35:01.740 And so this is the stuff that radicalizes me, but in the other direction. 1.00
01:35:05.600 Mm hmm. Yes. I just feel like have the class to say, I'm going to sit this one out. You know,
01:35:11.900 I of course she's voting Democrat. Nobody thought otherwise. But just you know what? I'm sure she
01:35:18.280 met him. There's zero chance she didn't meet him when she did that movie. Just have the class to sit
01:35:24.340 this particular one. Not every fight requires you to participate. But you're right, Carol. In Hollywood,
01:35:30.640 she's got to shore up her bona fides like she's probably getting some incoming like how could you 0.96
01:35:35.120 play his grandmother? Right. And so she's got a telegraph. I'm with you.
01:35:39.980 She needs to make a spectacle of it. That's you know, that's how communism works. 1.00
01:35:45.040 Well, we're not going to get the media to change anytime soon. That's for sure.
01:35:49.140 I'll leave you with this soundbite from Michael Steele, who used to run the RNC,
01:35:53.960 but he's a Republican like Nicole Wallace is a Republican. Both ladies are shaking their heads
01:35:58.080 no immediately. And now he's running cover for the fact that we're not hearing from Kamala Harris.
01:36:03.680 And according to her own statement, won't anytime until perhaps September. Listen to him.
01:36:11.120 What has struck me since Donald Trump's press conference is sort of the sort of highbrow
01:36:17.500 nature of the press coming at Kamala Harris saying, well, she, in my view, whining that she hasn't,
01:36:25.760 she doesn't talk to us. She hasn't done a sit down with us. She hasn't done interviews with us.
01:36:31.500 And I watched that press conference and I go, well, when you start actually asking real questions
01:36:37.060 of Donald Trump and pressing him, then that sort of creates a space of balance. But right now,
01:36:42.760 is there a real need for her to sort of, you know, get the imprimatur of the press on her campaign and 0.60
01:36:48.240 her efforts when she's having a very good conversation seemingly with the American people without them?
01:36:53.320 What conversation? Where is she having a conversation with the American people?
01:36:59.280 I, I, it just, it's unbelievable to me that they could say stuff like that with a straight face.
01:37:04.060 Like what a sellout. He used to be, you know, sort of a moderate Republican who would say
01:37:09.440 occasionally smart things. And now he's become this sycophant on the left who will say anything.
01:37:14.800 The media loves Kamala Harris. They're not going to give her tough questions. They're going to give
01:37:18.900 her the easiest possible questions that she could answer with no problem. I would love to see her
01:37:24.100 do a conversation like Trump did with Elon Musk with, you know, anybody of her choice. It doesn't
01:37:30.380 have to be Elon. She could pick somebody on the left that will, she could pick Michael Steele and
01:37:35.020 they could have a conversation. I'd love to see her get into a long range conversation for over an hour 1.00
01:37:40.860 talking about all kinds of things. Let's see that happen.
01:37:44.300 We'll take what we can get, but it'd be better with adversarial media. So we could actually learn
01:37:48.040 something Trump faces them all the time. Bethany, I'll give you the last word.
01:37:52.780 I mean, if you watched JD Vance going into the line of fire, I mean, I didn't love everything
01:37:57.140 he said on all the Sunday shows, but he actually took the time to spend in a sit down conversation
01:38:02.460 with all three of those, of those networks. We will never see that from Kamala. And I I'm hopeful
01:38:07.660 that once the honeymoon wears off and people actually hear what she says, she is not a very strong
01:38:14.140 candidate. And once people see that, I'm hoping that, you know, her numbers will go down, but she,
01:38:20.140 I think she realizes that Biden made a mistake in letting himself be participate in the, in the
01:38:26.460 debate. And she's not going to let herself make the same mistake.
01:38:30.280 Ladies, a pleasure. Thanks for being here. 1.00
01:38:33.080 You're so much prettier and smarter than Charlize Theron. I just want to add that.
01:38:37.460 I don't know about that, but thank you. I'll take smarter. Thank you. We're back tomorrow with
01:38:42.280 the fifth call. Thanks for listening to the Megan Kelly show. No BS, no.
01:38:48.980 I don't know.
01:39:02.140 I don't know.
01:39:04.240 I don't know.