The Megyn Kelly Show - Shock Story About Kristi Noem's Husband's Double Life, and Trump Warns Europe, with Brandon Weichert, Tom Bevan, and Andrew Walworth ｜ Ep. 1285

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00:00:30.660 Welcome to The Megyn Kelly Show, live on Sirius XM Channel 111 every weekday at New East.

00:00:42.380 Hey everyone, I'm Megyn Kelly. Welcome to The Megyn Kelly Show.

00:00:45.520 We've got a lot of big news to get to today with the war in Iran,

00:00:48.320 but we begin today with an unbelievable report from the Daily Mail,

00:00:53.340 which has just been confirmed by the subject.

00:00:57.640 It's a bombshell in more ways than one.

00:01:00.220 Earlier this month, President Trump announced that he was replacing Homeland Security Secretary

00:01:04.480 Kristi Noem while she was embroiled in multiple scandals. She drew controversy by making herself 1.00

00:01:10.260 the face of a $200 million ad campaign for the DHS, and she was accused of having an affair

00:01:15.160 with her longtime aide, who is technically her subordinate, Corey Lewandowski. Many blamed her

00:01:21.200 for the politically unpopular immigration surge in Minneapolis, and her messaging around it was,

00:01:25.520 she got out too far ahead of her skis, saying things about Alex Peretti, for example, that

00:01:31.080 she couldn't back up and kind of compromised the whole narrative in doing that. All of that is

00:01:36.920 what got her in trouble. But all of that is kind of nothing compared to what I'm about to tell you.

00:01:42.840 According to the Daily Mail, Gnome's 56-year-old husband, Brian, is a secret cross-dresser who 0.88

00:01:51.260 wears gigantic fake boobs and wears pink hot pants while he chats online with fetish models 0.99

00:01:58.620 who have gigantic breasts. Okay. For the listening audience, we're showing a picture of him 1.00

00:02:05.220 that the Daily Mail found and published. Think Kayla Lemieux. Think the Canadian shop teacher.

00:02:14.340 He's clearly put on like a tight little sports bra

00:02:18.400 that's sort of nude colored

00:02:20.920 and has stuffed two enormous balloons down there 0.96

00:02:24.920 for his breasts with the little like tie of the balloon 0.99

00:02:30.220 appearing to be like mismatched nipples 0.99

00:02:33.400 and then little hot pink biker shorts below 0.98

00:02:38.200 or maybe their leggings I can't see far down enough,

00:02:41.040 thank God.

00:02:41.540 But in other pictures, the Daily Mail got its hands on. You can you can see him in his tight little leggings trying to look like a woman, but like a freak woman. 0.98

00:02:54.040 The Daily Mail reports that it has reviewed hundreds of messages involving Brian and three women from the so-called bimbofication fetish area of the Internet.

00:03:10.120 I don't know how he finds them, but this is where performers receive outrageously large breast enhancements to obtain a Barbie doll-like look. 1.00

00:03:21.020 And I guess he's been paying them to show it off for him, and then he returns the favor in kind.

00:03:28.860 And it's relevant. It's it's obviously very salacious, but it's relevant because the reason if we had known this, she never would have been confirmed for this post is it makes her subject to blackmail.

00:03:47.300 It makes her subject to blackmail because if the Daily Mail can find these pictures and this fetish by her married husband, so can our adversaries.

00:04:01.040 And who knows who could go to Kristi Noem when she was DHS secretary and say, you will do the following things or we will run to the New York Times with these photos. 0.99

00:04:11.740 One of the models who messaged with Brian told the Daily Mail, quote, his kink is for huge, huge, ridiculous boobs. 0.98

00:04:20.900 Yes, we can see that. 0.99

00:04:22.540 According to the report, Brian got in touch with a model using the pseudonym Jason Jackson.

00:04:28.300 That's what he calls himself and complimented her amazing curves, saying he would treat her like a goddess. 0.90

00:04:35.740 Brian asked, how are your boobs? 0.98

00:04:38.040 Would you go even bigger? 1.00

00:04:40.200 This is unbelievable.

00:04:41.740 I'm sorry, but it's just so absurd what, like, the ubiquitous nature of porn on the internet.

00:04:53.580 You know, it's not like when it used to be, like, Playboy and Penthouse and, like, a man would see a couple dirty pictures and read a dirty forum and move on with his business.

00:05:05.020 Like it's everywhere. It's everywhere. And any kink you have can be indulged, including like this. I mean, this is a form of cheating. There's no question. Like, ladies, can you imagine if you found out your husband was doing this? And he's not just looking at photos. He's interacting with the so-called bimbos, as I espoused here, quoting him. 1.00

00:05:29.200 How are your boobs? Would you go even bigger? Yeah, I'd consider that cheating. He's clearly 0.99

00:05:33.440 getting off to the sight of these women who have just mutilated themselves for the pleasure of 0.99

00:05:41.700 random strangers online. And then he's returning the favor. He's doing it himself. Like that's a

00:05:50.840 totally different fetish where then you've got to do it. That's autogynephilia. That's what most

00:05:57.500 of these trannies have where you get off. It's a sexual fetish. How many times have we discussed 1.00

00:06:02.280 this? You, you get your rocks off dressing like a woman and then so much the better if other women 1.00

00:06:09.600 are around you or see you doing it. That's clearly one strain of what Christy Noem's husband

00:06:15.580 apparently has. And don't tell me it's just the Daily Mail and we don't know because she's just 0.89

00:06:21.400 confirmed it. Okay. This is, this story's real. We're going to have to deal with this because

00:06:26.700 she's still in the government. She's not in our DHS post, but she's been offloaded to this new

00:06:31.740 commission that the president created, and she's serving there right now. Brian telling this one

00:06:38.500 model that the Daily Mail made contact with that she inspired him to dress like a girl. Quote,

00:06:45.920 you turn me into a girl. Should I put on leggings? No, for the love of God, do not put on the

00:06:51.880 leggings because those pictures may be even more disturbing than the enormous fake breast Kayla

00:06:57.460 Lemieux wannabe photos. I mean, honestly, that's what he looks like. That level of breast enhancement

00:07:03.820 and perversion, though he's not wearing a wig. And by the way, his face is all over the photos.

00:07:10.640 He's not even trying to hide his identity as the spouse of the Department of Homeland Security

00:07:17.100 chief. Here he is in another one of his little outfits with the same giant fake breasts giving 0.98

00:07:24.180 a kissy face. Is that what that is? I don't like, he does the closeup of the fake breasts. 0.98

00:07:29.120 And then is it a kissy face? Abigail Finan and I were debating it backstage where Abby made more 0.94

00:07:36.440 just like a sourpuss, but I don't know. I don't know what that is, but I can speak for all women

00:07:42.880 in America when I say we don't want to see our husband doing it. I mean, I feel for Kristi Noem.

00:07:48.540 It's it puts a totally different spin on the affair she's allegedly been having with Corey

00:07:55.180 Lewandowski. Who could blame her? Who could blame her? It feels almost noble at this point. I mean,

00:08:02.260 like, it's not noble. I mean, they're both married and have children and all the bit. I'm just saying

00:08:07.760 it definitely gives a different look at it because you never know what's going on in someone's

00:08:12.420 marriage. Now I'll get to what she's saying. She's, she's suggesting she didn't know. So I

00:08:18.640 guess technically it wouldn't justify the affair, but even if you don't know, don't you know, as a,

00:08:24.440 as a, as a wife, you know, I had a dear, dear friend who had a husband who cheated on her

00:08:31.780 for years, years and years and years and years and years. And she finally found out when one

00:08:37.740 of the women came forward to her. And my friend didn't know, like we were all shocked, but my

00:08:45.480 friend had been manifesting, I think, knowing without knowing in multiple health problems

00:08:52.100 and stress and anxiety that had been plaguing her. I really think it's very hard for a spouse

00:08:59.160 to get away with this for years, for, you know, who knows how many years this has been going on

00:09:05.340 with him without the other spouse having something internal tell them something is off.

00:09:13.000 I just, maybe I'm just telling myself that, that you'd know, because we all want to think

00:09:17.440 we'd know.

00:09:19.760 Anyway, back to the story.

00:09:22.020 A PayPal account associated with this Jason Jackson, again, that's Brian, would regularly

00:09:27.400 send the woman money in installments, typically between $500 and $1,000.

00:09:31.960 That's your tax money going to use there.

00:09:35.340 In total, he allegedly paid the models at least $25,000.

00:09:40.720 The Daily Mail got in touch with Brian, and he did not notably deny having explicit online conversations with these so-called Barbie or bimbo, bimbifications, 1.00

00:09:52.680 and nor of sharing photos of himself dressed as these so-called bimbos. 0.95

00:09:58.840 So he did deny the notion that Kristi Noem could have been blackmailed over it.

00:10:04.800 OK, well, he doesn't know. I mean, that's not deniable. That's for us to decide whether she was subjected to black, could have been subjected to blackmail over it. But he did not deny that it was him. So, you know, it's a scoop by the Daily Mail. And it turns out, you know, the right wing may have its own Kayla Lemieux, though I don't think we own Brian. No, I.

00:10:27.380 But this is Kayla. Maybe the two of them can meet up. He, Kayla, is a male, was the Canadian teacher

00:10:36.000 who wore the fake Z-cut breasts in school. Take a look at them side by side. They're basically 1.00

00:10:41.200 twins. They're twinning. There's like, there's enough breasts between these two to take up an 1.00

00:10:47.860 entire aisle at the grocery store. You think you, like the chicken breast, nothing. This is pounds

00:10:54.540 and pounds of breast. I don't know what was Kinkala's fake boobs, but we are told that Brian's 0.99

00:11:00.700 is balloons. That's how it looks. And now we get a comment from, from Kristi Noem, 0.98

00:11:10.340 who tells the New York Post, she's devastated by these allegations. It's someone,

00:11:18.560 some representative of her saying, she is devastated. The family was blindsided by this.

00:11:25.060 They asked for privacy and prayers at this time. I mean, she's got them. She's got them.

00:11:29.740 This is not what you want to see if you are married to anyone to find out that this level

00:11:35.840 of betrayal has happened. This speaks to somebody's entire character. The fetish, yes,

00:11:40.100 but the lying, the deceit, the money, the getting off with another person, not your spouse, 0.99

00:11:45.840 all of it, is very dark and dirty and disgusting. And I'm sure whenever she found out, whether it 0.93

00:11:53.840 was today or previously, I'm sure it's made her skin crawl, like it's making our skin crawl.

00:12:01.360 And just what an incredibly reckless risk for her husband to have taken, given the position

00:12:09.240 she just held for the first year of the Trump administration. It's not the president's fault.

00:12:14.460 It's it's her husband's fault.

00:12:17.000 And I don't I wouldn't be so they've been married since they were in like their sweetheart since they were in high school.

00:12:22.360 He's talked about she came on our show and talked about it.

00:12:24.500 She, you know, she was a young like rancher's daughter. 0.99

00:12:28.740 They met they fell in love.

00:12:29.920 I actually think we cued some of this up here is.

00:12:34.180 Let's see.

00:12:34.960 Yeah, he gave an interview to Moms for America in April of 2021.

00:12:39.040 And here he is talking about how his relationship with Christie started.

00:12:41.940 saw three we were friends and i was a classmate with her brother and so i was acquainted with her

00:12:48.740 throughout high school and then she went to the same college i did we started dating when she was

00:12:53.700 in high school and she went to college and then just you know the typical off and on relationship

00:12:59.540 and we finally started to get serious and then we um you know i asked her to marry me and of course

00:13:04.820 she said yes and so but we grew up in the same community going to the same school

00:13:12.020 with the same group of friends raised on a farm with the same kind of upbringing good values hard

00:13:18.660 work and when i went to college my freshman year she i i'd heard that she had some interest in me

00:13:25.940 and then of course why wouldn't i have interest in her she's remarkable so we started dating then 0.83

00:13:31.940 And then it kind of went from there.

00:13:33.160 And in 1992, we got married.

00:13:35.600 It really does make you wonder what causes a fetish like this in somebody.

00:13:39.220 You know, I remember Deborah So came on the podcast early on before we even had video.

00:13:43.640 And she's a specialist in this kind of thing, in these sex fetishes.

00:13:47.360 And she really thinks that they should be normalized and that we shouldn't stigmatize them.

00:13:51.920 I mean, this is a different scenario, given Christy's role, given the money that changed hands, given the fact that she's saying this was a secret from her.

00:13:58.160 but okay, let's say it wasn't a secret

00:14:00.880 or it isn't in some marriages.

00:14:02.640 Like what causes it?

00:14:03.960 And Debra So told us that one of the weirdest fetishes 1.00

00:14:07.160 she ever dealt with was people who get turned on

00:14:10.360 by the idea of an animal eating them,

00:14:14.560 like eating them for lunch.

00:14:17.060 Like what causes that?

00:14:19.700 What happens to you in your childhood

00:14:21.660 that makes that be your thing

00:14:23.820 or makes this be your thing 0.92

00:14:25.420 where like it's not only like the enormous breasts 0.99

00:14:27.440 on a woman. I think a lot of men could say, yeah, I'm into that. But like the grotesquely 0.68

00:14:33.500 enormous breasts, and then you put them on? I don't know. I really, I would like to understand 0.98

00:14:38.800 that better. Not that much better. I don't want to spend that much time on it. But in any event,

00:14:43.560 that's the latest news out of the Department of Homeland Security. We're actually going to

00:14:50.440 pick it up in our second hour when the guys from RCP join us. But now we turn to more important

00:14:56.640 news on the war in Iran. We'll pick that up when we come right back. Don't go away.

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00:16:23.200 We've been reporting for weeks that the Trump administration's messaging on the Iran war has

00:16:31.120 been all over the place. We've already won, but we can't leave yet, etc. The latest example,

00:16:37.220 the Strait of Hormuz, where roughly 20% of the world's oil supply normally flows

00:16:41.240 before Iran effectively shut it down because of this war, causing the price of oil to surge.

00:16:47.800 As we told you, President Trump on Monday on Truth Social threatened to blow up Iran's

00:16:53.080 energy plants and desalinization plants if the strait was not, quote, open for business.

00:17:00.000 And here's what Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Al Jazeera yesterday. Watch.

00:17:05.660 Well, the Straits of Hormuz will be open when this operation is over. It will be open and 0.98

00:17:10.120 it'll be open one way or another. It will be open because Iran agrees to abide by international law

00:17:14.720 and not block the commercial waterway or a coalition of nations from around the world

00:17:19.300 and the region, with the participation of the United States, will make sure that it's open.

00:17:23.040 One way or the other, it's going to be open. But we have very clear objectives that we're trying

00:17:26.980 to achieve here. Those objectives are the destruction of their air force, which has been

00:17:30.680 achieved, the destruction of their navy, which has largely been achieved, a significant reduction in

00:17:36.060 the number of missile launchers that they have, which we're well on our way to achieving, and we

00:17:39.940 are going to destroy the factories that make those missiles and those drones that they are using to 0.99

00:17:44.160 attack their neighbors and the United States and our presence in the region. We will achieve those 1.00

00:17:48.940 objectives. We are well on our way or ahead of schedule. We will achieve them in weeks, not

00:17:52.960 months. And then we'll be confronted with this issue of the Straits of Hormuz, and it'll be up

00:17:57.460 to Iran to decide. And if they choose to try to block the Straits, then they will have to face 0.76

00:18:01.360 real consequences, not just from the United States, but from regional countries and from the world.

00:18:07.360 Seems pretty clear. But then Monday night, the Wall Street Journal

00:18:10.360 out with a report stating President Trump was telling aides he's willing to end the war,

00:18:15.260 even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed.

00:18:18.280 That's a huge change.

00:18:21.020 That is a very consequential decision, if so.

00:18:25.440 And then this morning, Mr. Trump posting on True Social,

00:18:28.400 quote, all of those countries that can't get jet fuel

00:18:31.420 because of the Strait of Hormuz, like the United Kingdom,

00:18:33.800 which refused to get involved in the decapitation of Iran,

00:18:37.360 I have a suggestion for you.

00:18:39.360 Number one, buy from the U.S.

00:18:41.360 We have plenty.

00:18:42.060 And number two, build up some delayed courage, go to the strait, and just take it.

00:18:48.760 You'll have to start learning how to fight for yourself.

00:18:51.360 The USA won't be there to help you anymore, just like you weren't there for us.

00:18:56.020 Iran has been essentially decimated.

00:18:58.640 The hard part is done.

00:19:00.380 Go get your own oil.

00:19:04.220 So it's all over the place, right?

00:19:08.000 I mean, the president himself was saying they have to open the strait.

00:19:12.520 His secretary of state literally the day before saying the Strait of Hormuz will be open.

00:19:18.360 Trust me, it's got to get open.

00:19:20.660 And then the president telling aides per the Wall Street Journal, maybe we don't have to open the Strait of Hormuz.

00:19:26.640 And then finally this morning coming out and saying, ah, you know what?

00:19:29.660 If you're mad about the strait being closed, go get your own oil.

00:19:32.900 London, Europe, UK.

00:19:34.880 I mean, it's it's so erratic that even Fox News, the biggest cheerleader of this war by far, is starting to ask some questions.

00:19:45.480 Watch. If we cannot come to some type of peace deal with people who can't be trusted, then what?

00:19:52.160 Well, looks like the U.S. is going to escalate.

00:19:54.780 President Trump is already warning of widespread further damage, threatening to hit electric generating plants, oil wells and Carg Island, as he's reportedly considering sending ground troops in to secure the uranium.

00:20:12.080 Now, knowing what little time we have and how quickly this can spiral out of control, we still have a lot of questions.

00:20:18.500 For instance, was the president fully briefed about the risks of all of this from the beginning?

00:20:27.000 And was he then able to take it all in and understand the complexity of this, how complex it could actually get, and further possibilities of casualties or other damage, the difficulty of dealing with these people?

00:20:40.160 Or was he told this would be relatively quick in and out?

00:20:44.620 Here to react to all of this and more is Brandon Weikert. He's senior national security editor of

00:20:50.840 1945.com and host of NatSec Talk on Rumble. Brandon, great to have you. Thanks for being

00:20:56.980 here. So let's just start with the disparate messaging on whether the Strait of Hormuz

00:21:03.460 must be open or closed or something in between in order for us to end this war.

00:21:09.340 Well, thanks for having me. It's good to be here. And it's pretty interesting watching this

00:21:14.440 You know, will they won't they open the strait when, as you know, 20 percent of not just the energy sources, but key fertilizers, helium that's needed for the production of silicon based semiconductors, which is the basis of this A.I. tech boom that that's really keeping the U.S. and Western economy afloat right now.

00:21:37.740 So the president is saying, he's sort of going, eh, not my problem.

00:21:42.220 And that's interestingly what Yaakov Armador, the former national security advisor to Benjamin Netanyahu, told me last Monday on another network.

00:21:49.500 It's not their problem, but ultimately it's the whole world's problem if the Iranians keep this thing closed, and they're going to. 1.00

00:21:56.960 So, you know, the president can say that, but then you look at what's going on, Megan, with the troop movements

00:22:02.860 And the way that the U.S. military is still engaged, despite having won the war, supposedly, it sounds to me a lot like we are getting ready to make a move.

00:22:13.720 And unfortunately, I think it's going to be a disaster with U.S. ground troops going in somewhere in Iran.

00:22:19.980 But the Strait of Kormuz remaining closed in about 48 hours.

00:22:24.760 Europe starts running out.

00:22:26.260 Asia starts running out of oil that they've had stockpiled.

00:22:30.160 And we start running out of oil in terms of what we brought in from overseas April 15th.

00:22:35.920 So unless that thing gets reopened soon, everybody's going to feel the pinch in the next 48 hours.

00:22:42.080 So, Brandon, you think he is going to he's still determined to go in with ground troops because yesterday we had on Professor Pape who said, don't look at just the troops being sent over.

00:22:51.500 Look at all these supporting operations that we're sending in to support the troops.

00:22:55.660 Right. But Trump is now starting to talk more like you and me. Yeah. You know, about wanting to wrap it up. So I have a glimmer of hope. Right. He talked about that before as well, though. I mean, we were all hoping that he would supposedly taco, you know, out of the the initial airstrikes because we'd love the taco taco Tuesday. Who doesn't love it?

00:23:15.960 um and uh you know but then he ended up still going ahead with the airstrike uh that started

00:23:22.580 this whole war uh you know so we have these periods where it looks like trump's going to

00:23:27.200 negotiate possibly and get find a golden off-ramp and then that turns out to be not accurate or that

00:23:33.940 ends up being a ruse so i think the same pattern is at play here where he's saying something to

00:23:39.920 keep try to keep the markets calm it's not working like it used to by the way uh and he's saying

00:23:44.740 something to try to keep the adversaries off balance and to try to keep as many people on

00:23:50.200 board with what he's doing until he thinks he can get that final kill shot in. Except we've been

00:23:55.700 looking for a final kill shot for the last 30 days. It ain't coming up because the Iranians 1.00

00:24:00.700 figured out our war plan years ago and they've decentralized their capabilities and their

00:24:06.460 leadership and they've hardened them. And so whether we're landing on Karg Island or somewhere

00:24:11.400 along the Iranian coast to try to force open the Hormuz, the Strait of Hormuz, which will

00:24:16.280 be like Gallipoli in World War I, which will end in a disaster for the United States Armed

00:24:20.540 Forces, or if we have this sort of weird uranium Tom Clancy style hunt in the middle of the 0.77

00:24:27.340 Iranian heartland, either way, this is going to end in a disaster for the United States 1.00

00:24:33.620 military.

00:24:33.980 It will end U.S. power projection for at least a generation into the Middle East.

00:24:38.740 the let's talk about the weird tom clancy uranium hunt that was a new one that was dropped on us

00:24:45.340 late in this thing you know it was like first it was regime change and then it turned into well

00:24:50.620 the nukes and then everybody was like you said you destroyed the nukes in june didn't we just

00:24:54.320 do all that whole thing and then it kind of morphed into we got to get the missiles and it was like

00:24:58.160 all right well the missiles do seem like a problem but that definitely doesn't seem like it was your

00:25:01.320 primary motivation they weren't firing them at us until we went there and then it was like we got

00:25:05.500 to get that straight of Hormuz open it's like well it was open it was open before we started

00:25:10.200 bombing them so we got to like have a war to solve the problem that we caused with the war

00:25:14.920 and now finally we're talking about we have to go in and get the uranium because Mark Levin said

00:25:20.700 that on his program on Saturday night which President Trump drove people to go watch with

00:25:25.540 Mark Thiessen was all about getting the uranium scuba tanks out of like the mountains it was like

00:25:32.040 okay, that's our new mission. But then today, President Trump was called and gave an interview

00:25:37.260 with CBS, Weijia Zhang, and he kind of went off of that a little too. One of Trump's main

00:25:46.540 world objectives, she writes, is to rid Iran of its nuclear capabilities. I asked if removing

00:25:51.520 its enriched uranium is necessary to declare victory. Quote, I don't even think about it.

00:25:58.360 I just know that, you know, that's so deeply buried, it's going to be very hard for anybody.

00:26:05.180 We've watched it for, you know, since the attack, we've watched it.

00:26:08.700 And at least I think finally people admit it was obliteration.

00:26:12.940 It's down there deep and they haven't been able to do it.

00:26:16.680 You know, even without a war, they haven't been able to do it.

00:26:20.180 So it's pretty, it's pretty, it's pretty safe.

00:26:23.060 But, you know, we'll make a determination.

00:26:25.540 My own translation is he's saying the Iranians haven't been able to get to it.

00:26:29.360 It's underneath those three nuclear sites that we blew apart.

00:26:32.840 And so we feel like it's pretty safe and it would be very complicated for us to do.

00:26:37.800 Very hard for anybody, as he puts it.

00:26:40.000 And we haven't yet determined whether we're doing the Tom Clancy operation or not.

00:26:45.620 Well, if I were a parent of someone about to deploy, I'd be very worried that that's what the commander in chief is talking like on the eve of what will be a major ground combat operation.

00:26:55.120 Operation I think this is this is a very serious thing the president is talking about doing and he doesn't

00:27:02.080 Seem at least in public to be taking it very seriously

00:27:05.240 But every time that we turn around there's an escalation from us

00:27:09.960 Against Iran. I think it's important to note. We don't like the Iranian regime. They support terrorism 0.99

00:27:15.840 We accept all of that at least I do

00:27:18.120 But ultimately as you noted the Iranians were not going to war with us before we attacked them

00:27:24.600 and every time the Americans and or Israelis have escalated up the escalation ladder only at that

00:27:33.180 point do the Iranians counterpunch which is how we're in the position we're now in where the

00:27:39.120 entire Middle East is a battlefield remember this was supposed to be really a 96-hour pinprick

00:27:44.240 strike against the leadership it was going to fold after that just like Maduro's regime supposedly

00:27:49.820 folded. And then the people of Iran were going to rise up in 96 hours after the bombs fell on 0.89

00:27:55.100 Kamani's head. And it was going to be great. And Trump was going to look like a hero. And we 0.52

00:27:58.780 wouldn't even be talking about this come March. Well, here we are now in March and going into

00:28:03.840 April. And we are having this conversation now. I think the bottom line here is the I don't even

00:28:10.480 think it's about the uranium. My personal view is that the Israelis don't either. Yeah, I think

00:28:15.700 the Israelis wanted this. I think they pressured Trump. I think that our friend Joe Kent gave a 0.98

00:28:20.820 very good description in his resignation letter about the echo chamber that had formed around

00:28:26.480 Trump. I think the president is surrounded by advisors who are George W. Bush acolytes.

00:28:31.760 They're from that era of the Republican Party. There are very few MAGA voices,

00:28:35.920 America First voices around him. And I think that he's listening to all these inputs,

00:28:40.620 just like during COVID. He's listening to Fauci. He's listening to Birx. He's listening to all

00:28:45.400 the people who have the wrong ideas and who are not on his side. It's the same thing here. And

00:28:49.860 now here we are where he's flailing around, frankly, trying to find how do I win this thing?

00:28:55.820 Well, there's no victory here. So how do I get out of this without looking bad and making our

00:29:00.560 position worse? Well, unfortunately, the only thing he can think to do is to keep escalating.

00:29:04.760 And Megan, that's why I say, I think we're going to see ground troops soon. And I'm going to go

00:29:08.960 one more. I said this on another show. I'm going to say it here. I am convinced that in a couple

00:29:13.580 weeks as soon as a couple weeks we might actually see uh nuclear weapons being deployed not by the

00:29:19.200 united states but either by israel and or the iranian regime which i believe probably has

00:29:25.720 a handful of rudimentary nuclear weapons that they've been playing with

00:29:29.200 i mean i was comforted by professor pape suggesting israel knows not to do that because

00:29:35.380 He was saying they know that not the entire Middle East hates them, but if they drop a 0.99

00:29:43.480 nuke in Iran, the blowback of which will spread across the Middle East, they'll all turn on 1.00

00:29:49.180 Israel, and it's only a country of 9 million people.

00:29:51.600 It would just be too existential a risk for Israel to take.

00:29:54.640 Yeah, but if you're sitting in Tel Aviv and you are in the Likud wing of that government,

00:30:00.540 which is very fanatical um you're you might be looking around going hey look this is the use it

00:30:06.600 or lose it moment the americans under trump can't be depended upon we have no idea whether trump is

00:30:12.040 going to actually go forward with what he says or if he's just going to taco out and leave us

00:30:16.380 holding a bag we can't carry that bag uh the iranians are actually going to walk away from

00:30:21.620 this stronger now uh so we're going to have to do something to bring them down to size and that is

00:30:27.000 why i'm fearful given the current government in israel that they might if they think that the

00:30:33.220 americans either can't or will not be able to achieve some semblance of success on the ground 0.99

00:30:39.660 that they will then just pop off some nukes and i think that's where this is headed and by the way

00:30:44.220 if they do that i think at that point we're going to find out real quick whether iran

00:30:49.260 has nukes or not because i think that they would retaliate in some way using whatever nuclear

00:30:54.480 material they have yes it is it is not too crazy to say this thing could turn nuclear i mean that's

00:31:03.140 what's really scary that this whole thing could turn nuclear and we may not we may not be in

00:31:07.860 control especially if we leave if we i mean i want us to leave don't get me wrong but i want us to

00:31:11.640 stand israel down too because if we leave and israel stays and feels like they're now exposed 0.58

00:31:16.100 to a very angry hornet's nest in iran they may do it because they feel like they've left themselves

00:31:22.660 with no choice, you know, that Israel may do it because Iran is now even more dangerous than ever 1.00

00:31:28.720 if it does have a nuke that it wasn't using because the old Ayatollah, now dead, had a fatwa

00:31:33.160 against it, but the new guy doesn't. And now they're very pissed and feeling defenseless.

00:31:38.380 And Megan, you got to remember, we whacked not just the Ayatollah, Kamani, but we whacked a 0.81

00:31:43.980 bunch of IRGC senior commanders. Well, now they're adjutants and the younger guys who are a lot more

00:31:51.560 hot-headed than were their commanders have risen to positions of power, and you're witnessing them

00:31:57.480 execute a very comprehensive, very methodical strategy of counterattack with these missiles

00:32:05.540 and these hypersonic weapons and the drones. Here's some data points that I've been throwing

00:32:10.260 out the last week. I just heard that we have officially expended one-third of our terminal

00:32:16.920 high-altitude area defense, the THAAD, we've expended one-third of those interceptors in

00:32:24.600 this month-long war alone. Those are the very important, high-powered, very expensive, I

00:32:31.040 think they're about $12 billion a pop, air defense systems that we have ringing the Middle

00:32:36.600 East. We've gone through one-third of those, and it will take about eight years if operations

00:32:41.720 stop tomorrow. It will take eight years to replenish those numbers. The Royal United

00:32:46.920 Services Institute, which is one of the oldest, I think it's the oldest think tank in the

00:32:51.040 world, usually very pro-war, by the way, but they assessed last week that Israel is days

00:32:57.900 away from running out of their important Arrow 2 and Arrow 3 exo-atmospheric interceptors.

00:33:04.600 It's a very fancy way of saying they have interceptors in Israel they rely on that go

00:33:08.940 high go fast and go far into the atmosphere into space to knock out incoming missiles well they're

00:33:14.460 basically out of those which means they've got to wait for iranian missiles and other attack systems

00:33:19.980 to get closer to their to their territory which of course increases the risk then you have also

00:33:25.900 this report coming out saying that um uh we are about on the thad system we are about three weeks

00:33:33.580 away from being totally empty uh on those thad uh interceptors for what we have in our current

00:33:38.940 stockpiles we're already cannibalizing stockpiles from indopaycom uh which is a very important uh

00:33:45.500 command for deterring china and we need the thads in place to deter china they are being depleted 1.00

00:33:51.180 now and moved over to um the middle east so what we are witnessing is a race to depletion

00:33:57.260 and it looks like to me the iranians are beating us in that all-important race to depletion 0.62

00:34:02.620 which is why i think the americans and israelis are so spastically trying to up the escalation

00:34:09.900 ladder because they figure well we're not doing well on this rung let's go up one higher and we

00:34:14.700 can maybe outmaneuver them that way and and run them because otherwise if we keep doing this match

00:34:20.300 tit for tat uh it's not going to end well i think the iranians probably have about 18 to 24 months

00:34:25.660 left of missile um capabilities at least which is based on what just based on my own observations

00:34:32.380 And based on what I've been looking at, if you look at the way that the Iranians have shifted their munitions packages, this is not a country that seems to be running low.

00:34:42.400 I know Hegseth and the boys keep saying, oh, well, you know, he said that this morning.

00:34:47.120 I know he's been saying this morning said the past 24 hours, the number of missiles went down to like 95 percent.

00:34:54.760 Yes, that matches, though, if you look, this is my own assessment.

00:34:58.620 so take from it what you will but if you take my assessment i think the reason you're seeing that

00:35:04.200 that decline is not because they're they're reducing numbers too much i think it's because

00:35:09.420 they recognize the americans and israelis have depleted for the most part their interceptor

00:35:14.340 force so now we can conserve our fires there's there's this thing called conservation of fires

00:35:19.520 and so the no professional military wants to waste ammunition no waste ordinance so the the

00:35:25.200 Iranians are a professional military, and they're saying, okay, we've now depleted. 0.99

00:35:29.240 We don't have to send swarms as much anymore because the interceptors are now pretty much drained,

00:35:35.860 and we can have our pick of the litter of targets,

00:35:38.100 and we know that there is a higher probability of those systems making it through.

00:35:42.180 That's why, by the way, you're now seeing the newer Iranian missiles being deployed,

00:35:46.680 these multiple independently targeted reentry vehicles where you have one missile

00:35:50.840 and then multiple warheads that separate over the target makes it harder for interceptors to hit.

00:35:56.640 That's why you're seeing them deploy these hypersonic weapons.

00:35:59.340 You're seeing them deploy the Karamshar, which is a very complex system.

00:36:04.060 In the beginning of the war, Megan, they were using their old 10-year-old missile systems,

00:36:09.620 rudimentary systems, to just drain us dry.

00:36:12.480 Now they're up the escalation ladder, and they're using their more sophisticated systems

00:36:16.940 to really slam targets in Israel and throughout the Arab states.

00:36:20.840 And I think that's because they know that the American and Israeli stockpiles are drastically depleted, and they don't have to expend as much ammo.

00:36:30.480 That is very scary when you think, well, I mean, basically in Israel, the Iron Dome has got big holes in it now.

00:36:36.160 It's got big holes, and they also punched those radars.

00:36:38.360 So remember, we had installed billions of dollars worth of early warning air defense radars in places like Bahrain, in places like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, etc.

00:36:48.460 And what were among the first target packages that the Iranians fired and they destroyed were those expensive radars, which is why now we're having to flood in these sentry planes. 0.89

00:36:59.820 And, of course, the Iranians have apparently very good intelligence because last weekend they blew up our spy planes that came in, our radar planes that came into Saudi Arabia the minute they parked at the tarmac, which means they have actionable intel, live intel. 1.00

00:37:15.260 I'm sure the Russians and Chinese are helping them as well.

00:37:17.860 But they yes, they've also got locals on the ground. The Iranians have really good human intelligence, notably in Bahrain

00:37:23.740 Which is mostly Shiite and that's why you're seeing those precision strikes with the drones against the Hilton Hotel 1.00

00:37:29.980 Where so many of our of our troops and our CIA and intelligence people

00:37:34.860 They moved out of the base that's destroyed there and they moved into these hotels

00:37:39.040 Well, it turns out I think the locals at the hotels and the drivers are calling up Iranian

00:37:44.700 In in intelligence operatives saying they're at they're on the eighth floor in the corner of this building send your drone there

00:37:51.140 And so we have a problem where the people of the region are turning against us as well

00:37:55.940 This is going south very fast, which is what gets me thinking

00:37:59.900 Not only is this not going to end anytime soon, but we're going up the escalation ladder with troops that ain't gonna work

00:38:06.100 So then they're gonna move to

00:38:08.260 You know the Israeli saying well, we're gonna have to do something perhaps we and we short circus 0.67

00:38:13.100 that short-circuit this by launching nukes.

00:38:17.100 Pray God, that's not true.

00:38:18.580 I want to follow up with some of what Pete said this morning

00:38:21.140 because he and Dan Raising Cain held a presser.

00:38:24.680 But before I get to that,

00:38:25.840 I just want to stick for a minute on the Laura Ingram soundbite.

00:38:28.420 I did think it was somewhat promising

00:38:30.220 to have someone as prominent as Laura,

00:38:32.200 who I know the president admires,

00:38:34.420 say, you know, start questioning, start poking.

00:38:37.420 How did we get here?

00:38:38.820 Better late than never.

00:38:40.020 It's certainly, right, totally.

00:38:42.120 But, you know, it seems like the president may have been misled into thinking this was going to be a snap.

00:38:47.600 And by whom?

00:38:49.240 And, you know, obviously, we know that Netanyahu was chief among them.

00:38:53.380 He was probably the biggest cheerleader.

00:38:54.720 But we know there were a lot of Fox News personalities who got into the president's ear.

00:38:58.800 And then we talked briefly about how the president pushed to Mark Levin's show on Saturday night,

00:39:05.140 where my friend, who I really care for, Mark Thiessen, said the following.

00:39:10.500 And, you know, like, I can't see a world in which this happens, but Mark is very smart.

00:39:17.740 So you tell me your take on this prediction.

00:39:20.900 I've never seen a war where the Democrats turned against the war on day one and are rooting for defeat.

00:39:28.440 You know, there are people in this country who hate Donald Trump more than they hate the Iranian regime that just massacred 32,000 people in their streets. 1.00

00:39:36.980 You know, they were all very upset about about what was happening in Gaza, but 32000 people massacred.

00:39:43.980 And then Donald Trump comes in to wipe out the genocidal regime that actually was committing genocide against its own people, massacring them in the streets like that.

00:39:52.420 And because it's Donald Trump, we have to play it down. We have to say it's a defeat.

00:39:56.800 We have to say we're losing and they're all going to have egg on their face because we got we're about halfway through this thing.

00:40:01.540 And when this is all over, this is going to be go down in history as possibly the greatest military campaign the United States has waged since the American Revolution.

00:40:11.560 Since the American Revolution, your thoughts on it?

00:40:14.260 Well, that's to be expected from Don Rumsfeld's former speechwriter, I guess.

00:40:20.820 You know, this is this is the same Pollyanna ish predictions we were hearing in Iraq. 0.91

00:40:27.280 I just remind everybody Iraq was actually supposed to take a few weeks and then we were supposed to be out 1.00

00:40:33.740 In fact, I know for a fact Rumi had the the plan for the exit was September

00:40:39.580 Oh three the last tranche of US forces were supposed to be pulled out of Baghdad International Airport

00:40:45.620 And that's so that's when did we launch we launched it March this this month actually ironically this month

00:40:50.660 I think it was March 19th

00:40:52.660 We launched Operation Iraqi Freedom, which turned into a quagmire.

00:40:58.200 And by the way, we're still fighting in Iraq, just so the audience understands, even though we pulled out.

00:41:03.820 They've ripped open the fighting again between Sunni and Shiite militias.

00:41:07.920 So we are still involved there.

00:41:10.440 So, you know, Mark Thiessen may be a nice guy.

00:41:12.480 I used to see him bouncing around Old Town Alexandria when I lived out there.

00:41:15.760 uh but ultimately mark is not the guy to listen to on anything related to war with all due respect

00:41:22.780 well he he's a wonderful guy and he's very smart and i i will say this he's completely sincere in

00:41:28.800 his analysis i'm sure he is like yeah he became a star on the kelly files we used to open our show

00:41:33.760 with him every night he could talk he's a nice guy i'm not attacking him personally yeah no no i

00:41:37.900 know i know i know i just like i i don't since the american revolution seems like a stretch to

00:41:42.940 And I think that the problem is like President Trump was pushing people to watch that.

00:41:47.560 And clearly President Trump watched that.

00:41:49.200 And back to Laura Ingraham's question about like who's been in his ear and what have they been telling him that led him to completely reverse himself on his promises of no war, no Middle East war. 0.82

00:41:59.720 And all the millions of tweets we've seen circulating from Donald Trump, you know, repeatedly saying it's so dumb to get involved in the Middle East war.

00:42:08.020 Why are we wasting all this money?

00:42:09.260 We should be focused on domestic politics, you know, leading up to when he was president.

00:42:13.740 And we'll just remember, Megan.

00:42:15.220 And we're so confused about why.

00:42:17.520 2016.

00:42:18.420 Remember his famous South Carolina debate during the primary.

00:42:21.440 You might have even been there.

00:42:22.920 You know, he went in there.

00:42:25.020 Trump did.

00:42:25.640 And this is when I fell in love with him.

00:42:27.240 And I'm a three time Trump guy.

00:42:29.340 I when he went in there and he called out all of the Bush people in the audience.

00:42:33.380 Then he yelled at Jeb Bush and he said, you know, your brother lied us into the war.

00:42:37.740 That was a doozy.

00:42:39.020 he was speaking for i'm on the older side of the millennials he was speaking for my generation

00:42:43.720 100 he was speaking for the gen z generation and probably part of the gen x generation as well

00:42:49.600 who knew that that war in 2003 was a doozy of a lie and we are still paying down that war by the

00:42:56.720 way today and now here he is a decade later and i think it is the echo chamber that that joe kent

00:43:03.400 talked about in his resignation letter. But I also think we need to not take away agency from

00:43:09.660 the president. I mean, he is the president of the United States. I think he really was moved by the

00:43:16.120 protesters. I believe that. I think he has heart. And I think that he saw what was happening to the

00:43:21.120 protesters in January and February. And he was like, well, slaughtered by the Ayatollah right 0.97

00:43:26.360 now. I don't know to the level of 32,000 sounds a lot. I don't know, but OK. But it was clearly

00:43:31.600 bloodshed it was horrible what was happening again the regime in Iran is not 0.93

00:43:35.140 a good regime but ultimately I think that he was moved and then you throw

00:43:39.220 that in with his relationship with Benjamin Netanyahu and then you throw it

00:43:42.760 in with the echo chamber of neocons that he only listens to now and this is how

00:43:47.380 you have a perfect brew of him believing after Maduro and what happened in

00:43:51.340 Venezuela and what happened in June with our exactly but I will just said he

00:43:55.960 thought he could do it say General Cain and this came out in the press the day

00:43:59.440 before the war started there was a very content he warned him warned him now why kane didn't resign

00:44:04.940 in protest after that is beyond me and i think that that's actually a blight on his record i

00:44:09.720 really want to talk about this this is under reported and under i've been covering there is

00:44:14.980 no question in my mind that the chairman of the joint chiefs didn't want this and warned the

00:44:21.100 president we shouldn't do it that hit the press the day before we did this the day of the president

00:44:27.240 Trump came out with a true social saying all Dan Cain knows how to do is win. If I tell him to go

00:44:33.160 in there, he'll win. That's that's the only he just bellicose his way around the clear warning.

00:44:40.780 And how did Dan Cain's advice to the president not to do this wind up in the papers? Well,

00:44:46.040 it was when you tell me vice emerald Fred, Fred Kotcher, who was, I believe, his adjutant. And

00:44:51.020 it's a big mystery among people I know at the Pentagon. Did the vice emerald do this of his

00:44:56.000 own volition did he just leak it because he was so worried that the president was locked into this

00:45:00.900 horrific you know quagmire or did he do it because maybe general kane asked him to do it maybe that

00:45:07.080 was sort of a quiet that's my question and we don't know but i will tell you from what i can

00:45:11.300 tell and now i know there's an investigation so this might be why but i do think it's interesting

00:45:15.440 they didn't fire vice emerald kotcher for leaking they removed him from his position on the joint 0.99

00:45:20.980 staff but he's been sent back to his regular post at the navy so he is still technically

00:45:26.740 and and i welcome anybody to correct me online if i'm getting this wrong because i this is the

00:45:30.820 last i heard of it was a few weeks ago he's still very much active at vice emerald in the navy

00:45:37.140 which to me is odd because it tells me that perhaps this was not just kotcher acting on his

00:45:43.140 own maybe this was kotcher representing the uniformed joint services command structure

00:45:49.060 most of whom, by the way, are Hegseth and Trump loyalists now.

00:45:53.340 They're trying to get a message out to the president,

00:45:55.500 and they know the president doesn't listen to anybody when you're talking to him.

00:45:59.440 He watches it on the media.

00:46:01.200 Trump is a creature of the 20th century.

00:46:03.460 He loves TV.

00:46:04.700 He's a ratings guy.

00:46:05.920 He cares about that.

00:46:07.020 And I think this is how the Fox News and the boomer cons and the neocons get through to him

00:46:12.700 is through Mark Levin and the TV.

00:46:14.140 And I think that the people who are non-interventionists have figured out too late in the game, you can't talk to the president always.

00:46:21.340 You're going to have to go on TV and get your points out that way because you'll see it then.

00:46:25.340 That is really true.

00:46:26.340 This is not an unfair criticism.

00:46:28.700 I've spoken to many people at Fox who've told me that administration figures will come to them saying, please put me on because I have something the president has to hear.

00:46:38.620 and also if their fortunes are dwindling they want a hit like on fox and friends for example

00:46:44.800 because they want to show i'm on tv see i'm relevant i'm making your points yeah they know

00:46:50.520 the shows he watches and they try very hard to get on them but look we know that the case was

00:46:55.900 made because we know that tucker carlson got in front of him three times in the month leading up

00:46:59.420 to this war and you know just he wasn't persuaded so but there were just so many other voices it was

00:47:05.180 nine to one, you know, that he was listening to pushing him into it. Not to take agency away from

00:47:09.700 the president at all, but I do think a full assessment. I agree. We know Trump made the

00:47:13.440 call. That's not a mystery, but who pushed him into it, who made these representations

00:47:17.480 also matters. It's the famous bubble. When you work in DC, I worked on the Hill for a period of

00:47:22.680 time and you work in the white house. It's even worse. I'm sure you get into a bubble and you

00:47:27.320 know, you're always taking incoming. So you only start listening to friendly voices. And, uh, you

00:47:33.280 know i will tell you i remember being mortified listening to dan crenshaw at a private event in

00:47:38.960 2018 where we were at at capitol hill club and he was gloating about how he ted cruz and lindsey

00:47:46.080 graham convinced the president to break his 2016 campaign promise to keep to pull troops out of

00:47:52.280 syria and he was gloating at the table about how and i said well how how did you even get him to

00:47:57.380 do that because I was very cross. And he said, well, he goes, we just appealed to his ego. He

00:48:05.240 has the ego the size of Jupiter. And he said, and we just kept appealing until after two hours in

00:48:10.200 the yellow oval office, he said, we all just got him to break that campaign promise. It's the same

00:48:17.700 thing with this war. Same thing. I mean, I'm thinking about Joe Kent's wife, his first wife

00:48:22.900 who was killed in Syria because she was left there

00:48:25.840 and he had said to her in the last conversation,

00:48:28.100 don't be the last one to die for a cause

00:48:30.080 that no one supports anymore.

00:48:31.600 And Shannon was killed likely by the elements

00:48:35.340 that are now we've elevated into power in Syria.

00:48:38.680 So, you know, it's...

00:48:40.380 Well, that's a whole other ball of wax right now.

00:48:42.740 We elevated Al-Qaeda, which is Sunni, 1.00

00:48:46.720 instead of the Shiites there.

00:48:48.360 And now, like, they're cooperating to...

00:48:52.360 And like, basically, we're working with terrorists.

00:48:55.560 We're working with ISIS, to be clear. 0.96

00:48:57.160 Let's just be clear.

00:48:57.800 It's ISIS. 0.54

00:48:58.360 They're working with ISIS. 0.81

00:48:59.340 Yeah, we're working with ISIS. 0.98

00:49:00.780 It's very dark.

00:49:01.960 And yeah.

00:49:02.900 There's more to discuss.

00:49:04.020 Can you stay over?

00:49:04.900 I gotta take a quick break.

00:49:05.740 Can you stick around?

00:49:06.640 All right.

00:49:07.040 Brandon stays with us.

00:49:08.500 And after, Brandon, the guys from RCP will be here.

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00:50:15.100 I heard we want everything faster.

00:50:19.640 Higher op tempo, wartime speed.

00:50:24.460 The feeling was the exact opposite of the rotational units year after year in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan that we're so familiar with.

00:50:32.020 What I witnessed was motivation.

00:50:34.040 It was sheer mission focus.

00:50:36.820 It was the American warrior unleashed.

00:50:40.800 A crew chief we flew with summed it up nicely.

00:50:43.180 He said, it's been a busy few weeks, sir.

00:50:45.840 Tough stuff.

00:50:47.000 But I'm so honored to be called up.

00:50:48.640 This fight is long overdue. We need to address it for our kids. We cannot pass the buck. Please thank the president from us. I heard that time and time again.

00:51:03.000 Okay. That was Pete Hegseth, our Secretary of War. Like, to me, I just, it sounded like a Jack

00:51:09.360 Nicholson impression. I just, of course, the men and women in uniform speaking to the Secretary of

00:51:16.720 War are going to say that. That doesn't tell us whether this is, in fact, a noble cause or whether

00:51:22.840 it was smart for the United States of America to do in the first place. I care for Pete, as you

00:51:29.400 know i backed pete but this like bravado is not going to get it done we actually need to be very

00:51:34.920 serious and sober about the risks we're exposing he and the president are exposing those men and

00:51:41.820 women who are so courageous to and and for whom are we doing that uh brandon weichert is back with

00:51:48.740 me now your thoughts on that brandon uh well i call him pollyanna pete for a reason and i say

00:51:53.680 this because i was a like you a very firm supporter of his uh i actually got a lot of

00:51:59.480 pushback from friends of mine in the defense community who were like why is why is this guy

00:52:03.080 becoming secretary i said look i think he has some great ideas and to give credit where credit is due

00:52:08.300 he's done a lot of good work with until now with recruitment and he's done a lot of good work with

00:52:13.800 acquisitions reform now acquisitions reform has been my great bugaboo for a decade so i give credit

00:52:20.100 to to to mr hegg said but on the war he's pollyanna pete and uh unfortunately we don't need that right

00:52:27.220 now we don't need a mindless cheerleader we need someone who understands strategy ends ways and 1.00

00:52:32.820 means and as i noted at the beginning our strategy in this war megan makes and as you noted makes no

00:52:39.140 sense you saw in the previous hour you played rubio's clip rubio's now emphasizing oh we got

00:52:44.020 rid of the iranian navy and the air force that was never a significant threat the iranian navy

00:52:49.060 i mean and also the iraqi navy the other problem with that is we learned we learned in our 20 years

00:52:55.540 in the middle east in iraq and afghanistan that it's not about that right it's great okay iran

00:52:59.920 no longer has the navy and the air force that's that's better than than them having it but that's

00:53:04.200 not how these guys fight right that that's not the thing that's right kills americans and makes

00:53:08.680 the war go on and on and on it's like the mujahideen the fighters the like ongoing jihad

00:53:14.200 from the like yeah the caves that's what we've proven we've learned nothing from 20 not inept

00:53:21.720 at fighting but it's a very much it's a very difficult fight for us well no you're right and

00:53:25.860 what we're facing is yet another and it's it's different because it is more of a state actor but

00:53:31.020 it's a hybrid model we're facing yet another uh insurgency and that's basically what this is this

00:53:36.280 is the unconventional insurgent model and i got to tell you the iranians are reminding me a lot

00:53:41.320 of the Muj, and they're reminding me a lot of the Viet Cong and the North Vietnamese,

00:53:46.580 who, remember the North Vietnamese, after the Battle of Ayah Drang, or into the Battle

00:53:50.600 of Ayah Drang, the first major battle we fought in Vietnam in 1965, the general there was

00:53:59.200 saying that we want to kill Americans, we're welcoming the Americans, we want them to land 1.00

00:54:02.980 so we can bloody their nose, and it's interesting, President Pazeshkian of Iran, who by the way 0.99

00:54:09.100 was raised among the Kurds, the Kurds that supposedly

00:54:11.200 were going to overthrow the regime, interesting

00:54:13.200 little fact there. Until we

00:54:15.180 stood down on that. Right, well, because

00:54:16.700 it couldn't work, it wasn't going to work. But President

00:54:18.940 Pazeshkin has said twice now in the last two weeks

00:54:21.280 that we cannot quit the war

00:54:23.140 in Iran because we have to bloody 0.89

00:54:25.240 the Americans' nose so much that 0.88

00:54:27.140 they never try something like this again.

00:54:29.380 So that is what you're dealing with.

00:54:30.960 That clearly seems to be what they're doing,

00:54:33.480 Brenda, doesn't it? Like, the 0.95

00:54:35.040 reason they're being so cagey about whether

00:54:37.160 they're negotiating or whether they want an end to this war in which we're killing lots of them

00:54:41.940 every day clearly we are look how many vietnamese we feel like they can outweigh us they're like we

00:54:47.700 don't really care we want you to feel the pain that's right economically we want president trump

00:54:51.940 to feel the pain politically we want gas prices to go up and for you to get the message that this

00:54:57.780 is a freaking disaster for you and it is and the iranians like i said so you know the iranian 0.99

00:55:04.320 strategy i've said this on other i said this on tucker show i'll say it here because it needs to 0.81

00:55:07.480 be constantly reminded von klauswitz the great prussian leader in the napoleonic war wrote a

00:55:13.460 book called on war it's required reading at all the military colleges around the west and he said

00:55:18.020 essentially politics is an extension i'm sorry warfare is an extension of politics through other

00:55:22.120 means you have to have a political end goal in mind that your military strategy is attempting

00:55:27.920 to achieve in our case what is our end goal it is shifted from regime change to we want to get rid

00:55:34.640 of the nukes to we want to get rid of ballistic missiles in iran to oh we're going to sink the

00:55:38.640 iranian navy sink the air force and oh by the way we're going to get them to stop supporting hamas 0.98

00:55:43.820 and hezbollah so that's like six things that are kind of ambiguous and we've attached a an air

00:55:49.480 force only an air war only approach you can't achieve those goals in a short time frame with

00:55:56.060 air power alone. Meanwhile, on the Iranian side, Megan, their only strategic end goal, 0.94

00:56:01.660 their political goal is survival, regime survival. That's all they have to do is hang on

00:56:06.820 long enough for the Americans to run out of stuff and to run out of patience with fighting the war.

00:56:13.100 Now, there is a chance. There is a chance now, because as we were talking in the first segment,

00:56:18.340 I got a note from a retired CIA guy, and he says to me, quote, he goes, I think we might actually

00:56:25.700 be thinking uh we need to be thinking the unthinkable that potus will actually leave

00:56:30.440 the war with leaving by leaving the iranians in charge of the strait of hormuz so on the one hand

00:56:36.380 oh i think that's what he's getting ready to do i hope that's how he sounds i hope you're right and

00:56:40.120 i hope i think president trump has seen these numbers that we've been reporting on our show

00:56:43.780 you know and i've been reporting them on x and i get all sorts of blowback brandon because my

00:56:48.020 audience loves president trump for the most part but i was a three-time voter for you need to see

00:56:51.860 this yeah but but even if you still love trump and you you know you want him to succeed he's got

00:56:57.040 another three years to go you have to see these numbers you have to see what's real right it can

00:57:03.020 still be potentially turned around there's no reason to double down on what we've already done

00:57:08.200 if there's any way of wrapping it up quickly we should and i as i listen to president trump over

00:57:14.080 the past 24 hours i think someone has seen the many harry enton reports the fox news polling

00:57:20.380 the Quinnipiac polling, the Reuters polling, that Amherst polling that came out yesterday,

00:57:24.960 putting his approval rating at 33%. The drag that this war on Iran has been across the board for

00:57:31.480 every single group that put him into office. President Trump is brilliant. He is very smart

00:57:35.580 when it comes to politics. And I think he's finally at the point where he's like, I'm out.

00:57:39.460 You know what? F it. I'm out. It's Europe's problem. Somebody else can have to deal with it.

00:57:43.460 The problem is, though, the enemy gets a vote. And like I said, Pazeshkin is talking about,

00:57:48.120 I'm not going to let go now until I've bloodied your nose and the Israelis get a vote, too. 0.82

00:57:53.640 And the Israelis are making it clear they're not going to stop. 0.91

00:57:56.900 I mean, like I said last week, I talked to Yaakov Armador, who was he's still very much intimately involved with with Netanyahu.

00:58:03.720 And he made it clear that the Israelis will only do what they think is in their national interest.

00:58:08.480 They do not care if the Americans want to reopen or keep close the Strait of Hormuz.

00:58:12.840 They do not care if the Americans bail out, they will do what they perceive is in their national interest

00:58:18.480 So that to me was an implied statement that they will continue pressing

00:58:22.980 Militarily knowing full well, it's probably gonna rope us back in not gonna let us go

00:58:27.600 And so this is what I see which they want yes, which is why I said in the beginning. I'm very

00:58:33.520 Doubtful that even if Trump wants to quit which he probably does at this point because like you said he's politically savvy

00:58:39.680 he might not be able to this is the nature of what your previous guest mr dr pape was talking

00:58:45.460 about with the escalation trap you are trapped now yep and so this is why here let me show you

00:58:51.840 just one i mean we could we could play these harriet and sots all day let me show you one

00:58:55.440 um sot 12 this is the lowest of his term the lowest of his second term we're talking about

00:59:01.300 minus 17 points 17 points underwater so i went back and i looked at all of the presidents at

00:59:08.540 this point in a presidency, all of them, all of them at this point in a presidency. And guess

00:59:13.320 what? Donald Trump is the lowest ever, the lowest ever at this point in a presidency.

00:59:20.020 Yeah. Today, he updated that to say it's actually low minus 19, not just minus 17.

00:59:27.440 YouGov with his latest poll, Trump's approval among independents approved 22 percent,

00:59:32.280 disapproved 65. The trend for independents in March of last year, 12 months ago,

00:59:37.760 trump was one point underwater with independence which is very good in december of last year he was

00:59:43.280 minus 26 he was already losing them because of affordability issues um and then march this month

00:59:50.640 he's minused 43 with the independents who are worried about their money and do not support

00:59:58.460 this war the independents there's almost none who are supporting this war right now and more and

01:00:03.460 more you're seeing the republican party split the core magas for it but every other republican

01:00:07.880 is at best split right down the middle which is exactly what happened in iraq and vietnam if you

01:00:12.700 remember it started out strong support patriotism rally around the flag and a lot stronger support

01:00:18.780 by the way in iraq in 03 than there was this time around in iran um but what happened was over the

01:00:23.840 course of time and it wasn't in iraq in particular remember the first bombing on the airport road in

01:00:28.980 Baghdad occurred I think six six or seven weeks after we invaded so that was relatively quickly

01:00:36.260 that the war started the support started turning on the war uh because it was the first Arab you 0.51

01:00:41.380 know the first marine that was killed was that 19 year old guy uh by the by the IED the improvised

01:00:46.540 explosive device and from that day onward you can track the decline in support in the United

01:00:51.480 States and the rise of the Democratic Party the return to power in 06 and that ultimately then

01:00:57.440 laid the groundwork for the rise of Obama and really the unseating of that Reagan coalition

01:01:03.940 that had dominated American politics since the 80s. And that really ended there with Obama. And

01:01:09.920 that all goes back to the first bombing in Iraq in 2003. Something similar is going to happen, 0.98

01:01:16.600 I think, in Iran. I just want to make it clear, by the way, the president can quit today if he

01:01:21.640 wants. We don't know what that's going to mean in terms of, is Iran going to stop or what are

01:01:26.360 the Israelis gonna do but even if it all works out according to plan the the time

01:01:30.800 that it will be needed to restore economic capacity the time it will take

01:01:35.180 to rehabilitate the destroyed infrastructure of the Gulf Arab states

01:01:39.860 as well as Israel now the Gulf Arab states are more economically important

01:01:43.820 because of the oil and the fertilizers and the heat the helium is the big one

01:01:47.360 as well it's gonna take years and years I mean they put on force majeure in

01:01:54.320 Qatar on five-year contracts for oil so that indicates to me that they're

01:01:58.340 anticipating they don't have to honor them because of like a yes forgive me

01:02:02.300 a massive intervention beyond their control so what that tells me is that

01:02:06.100 the Arab states if it all goes according to plan and they quit the war now it

01:02:10.700 doesn't matter we're not getting that economic capacity restored fully for

01:02:15.000 months and months if not years and we saw this by the way when Trump finally

01:02:19.580 reopened after lockdowns and COVID, it didn't matter. The economy did not rebound the way

01:02:25.220 they said it was going to. Well, wait, but does this matter? Because, you know, Trump's been

01:02:28.800 saying we don't get our oil from the Strait of Hormuz. So while, you know, Qatar may be suffering

01:02:32.980 a, you know, a problem on its balance sheets, we'll be fine. It's important that we understand

01:02:38.760 global markets. And I don't mean to sound like a jerk when I say that, because I understand people 0.82

01:02:44.320 think in America, well, we have all the stuff we need under our feet. And it's true, we do, 0.94

01:02:48.460 but we don't actually have full productive capacity here in the United States. And that

01:02:53.520 is a business decision that has been made by various oil and natural gas and fracking companies

01:02:59.420 because they want oil internationally in a price range. They like it. I think it's $66 to $88,

01:03:06.980 preferably closer to $66. They like it in that sweet spot. So what happens if you overproduce

01:03:13.180 at home uh your oil and your natural gas you're going to lower the global price of oil which means

01:03:19.420 good for you and i at the pump but it's bad for those oil companies which have to see roi return

01:03:24.700 on investment so when we talk about why is what's happening in the strait of hormuz affecting us here

01:03:30.380 it's because we're integrated why is my why is my gas right more than a dollar right more a gallon

01:03:35.900 than it was a month it's because we do not get all of our oil from our own not only north america but

01:03:42.300 the western hemisphere and also even if we did we're still affected by volatility swings in the

01:03:48.940 oil market so what that means is we are going to be subject to price increases and shortages here

01:03:55.260 in the united states especially because we don't have full capacity the infrastructure is not in

01:04:00.700 place and the oil companies don't want to spend the money on expanding infrastructure in the near

01:04:06.060 term for a variety of reasons but mostly because that's going to harm their bottom line every

01:04:10.620 quarter you know they have to post a return every quarter for their stockholders or their

01:04:14.740 shareholders so it's not in their interest to do this long term it is but short term it's not and

01:04:20.000 everything in america is about the short term and the number one thing that's upsetting voters here

01:04:25.160 is the economy so the last thing we need to do is give them yet another hit in the economy we

01:04:30.500 haven't even talked about the fact that war is costing us a billion dollars a day they want

01:04:34.000 200 billion dollars to to fight this we can't afford that we can't afford to rebuild all of

01:04:38.600 our military bases throughout the middle east we can't afford to replenish all these interceptors

01:04:44.040 and so like we can't afford any of this but we're going to have to because we can't sit

01:04:47.700 exposed without these things lest we we lest we get attacked but wait i want to ask you about

01:04:53.320 something else brandon this just broke via the new york times it's it's related but not on the

01:04:58.180 same exact topic um the revolutionary guards of iran just issued a threat against top american

01:05:04.340 corporations, accusing them of helping the U.S. and Israel carry out strikes against Iranians.

01:05:08.460 Quote, from now on, the main institutions involved in such operations will be considered

01:05:12.240 legitimate targets, says the guard in a statement that named 18 companies, including Apple, Google,

01:05:18.080 and Meta. The statement carried by Iranian state media called for employees of these companies,

01:05:24.020 quote, in all countries of the region to evacuate their workplaces and stay a kilometer away from

01:05:28.980 their officers. I think they mean offices. It was not the first time that Iran had threatened 0.95

01:05:33.520 american tech companies earlier this month they they threatened wider attacks against enemy tech

01:05:37.640 in infrastructure belonging to seven u.s tech firms they think the tech firms are helping are

01:05:42.740 assisting in the conduct of this war now this is a direct threat against the people who work at

01:05:47.800 their the branches anywhere in the region i mean that's not good either like we don't spend a lot

01:05:53.500 of time talking about the satellite problems that this thing is going to cause beyond the gas so my

01:05:59.040 My first book was on Space War. It was called Winning Space. It came out in 2020. And I talked about the threat to our space systems, which is still very underappreciated. Your audience might be aware of these fireballs in the skies over Texas and Ohio. Some of them are meteorites, but some of them, I think, are satellites being destroyed.

01:06:22.580 Now, I don't have proof of this, but my theory is I think somebody is clipping SpaceX, possibly Starlink satellites.

01:06:32.300 I hope that's incorrect. I hope that they can prove that is not correct.

01:06:36.280 By clipping, you mean like tapping into?

01:06:38.220 No, I'm sorry. I mean shooting down.

01:06:40.500 And I believe the reason that Starlink is a target now is because we know 40,000 Starlink terminals were uncovered in Iran during the protests by the Iranian regime.

01:06:50.880 And they are now associating that as not a private satellite company providing internet to people around the world

01:06:58.200 But as a backdoor way for regime change by the West using these decentralized

01:07:04.540 Satellites in fact, we saw the Ukrainians in the Ukraine war at the beginning

01:07:08.880 We're using Starlink to basically keep their units in the fight after the Russians attempted to de-link

01:07:15.280 Ukraine from the world telecommunications networking yeah now today the Russians are using Starlink terminals as well

01:07:21.080 So we're seeing Starlink increasingly used whether intentional or not by SpaceX. It's being used to

01:07:29.040 You know in these combat situations or in these political situations, which is now in turn making it a target

01:07:35.640 I think also there's probably some some anti-satellite warfare going on because I was told years ago

01:07:42.000 go. There is a fear that the Iranians put a cluster of EMP satellites or satellites armed

01:07:47.500 with electromagnetic pulse weapons above the United States. And I suspect we're probably taking those

01:07:53.240 things down as a precautionary measure. But ultimately, I think that the businesses,

01:07:59.420 particularly the tech companies that they're singling out, the Iranians believe, and it's not

01:08:03.900 always wrong, that these tech companies in some way or members of these tech companies are

01:08:09.300 for facilitating operations against the regime in Iran electronically.

01:08:15.500 So how do we get out of this?

01:08:17.720 If the president, pray God, calls you tomorrow to say,

01:08:21.280 Brendan, help me, what should I do at this point?

01:08:25.260 Clearly, he's not big on talking to the critics,

01:08:27.240 but what do you want to see happen at this point?

01:08:31.640 Well, what I would love to see happen is a complete reorganization

01:08:36.680 of the U.S. defense posture.

01:08:38.380 I want to see the complete reduction, if not complete pullout of U.S. military forces from the Middle East. We've lost this region. I want to see the reorganization of our defense apparatus so that we are prioritizing only two things, only two things, Western hemispheric defense plus space dominance.

01:08:59.240 uh and that is the only things that we should be focused on uh patrolling the world's oceans and

01:09:04.740 patrolling the world's you know straits and whatever sounded great in the 90s very alfred

01:09:10.420 mahan you know influence of sea power upon history wonderful stuff but we are no longer a unipolar

01:09:17.240 uh you know hegemon anymore we have blown that uh the economic situation alone for consistently

01:09:23.560 many years indicates we can't afford that kind of an empire anymore what i want to do is focus on

01:09:29.800 rebuilding america i want to focus on rebuilding the defense industrial base truly the industrial

01:09:35.480 base i want to bring the factories home so you can't do those things if you are constantly

01:09:40.680 engaged and exposed to the varying hostilities and grotesqueries of geopolitics in eurasia that's

01:09:48.680 europe and asia and the middle east you can't do it you've got to be hard about this and say we're

01:09:54.440 getting out and i can't think of a greater example of why we need to get out than looking at how

01:09:59.880 boxed in we are by the iranians of all people you know they spend a fraction on their defense

01:10:05.480 budget than we do uh also you know we well but wait but wait we're boxed in by the iranians

01:10:11.800 We're boxed in by Israel who saw all of this coming and couldn't have cared less what this 1.00

01:10:19.420 was going to do to the United States.

01:10:20.900 This chaos serves every single one of their interests.

01:10:24.680 Well, on paper it did.

01:10:26.020 But of course, if you look at what's going on in Israel now, I don't think in another

01:10:29.160 decade Israel is going to be a real country anymore. 0.97

01:10:31.460 I think that they have been completely smashed.

01:10:34.540 If you look at Tel Aviv, the footage, you have to go to foreign sources because of course 1.00

01:10:38.220 our own censorious media won't cover the story.

01:10:41.800 But if you go to some of these foreign networks in India and elsewhere, you will see the real footage being revealed on social media, on their networks.

01:10:51.580 You know, these Iranian missiles are nothing to joke about. 1.00

01:10:54.420 They're very serious and they're doing a lot of damage.

01:10:56.820 You're talking about, you know, their key ports, Haifa's getting hit.

01:11:01.160 ELAT has been blockaded on and off for years.

01:11:04.640 They've had an economic downturn because of this.

01:11:07.220 You look at the hundreds of thousands of professional class people who are getting their passports and going to places like Cyprus or Crete or Malta or London or Canada or here back in the United States.

01:11:20.340 They are leaving permanently.

01:11:21.900 So you have a brain drain going on.

01:11:24.000 How do they rebuild?

01:11:25.640 They can't rebuild. 1.00

01:11:26.800 And they're now breaking the IDF in this stupid thing in Lebanon. 0.99

01:11:31.400 You know, the Merkava massacre. 0.99

01:11:33.200 They're sending hundreds.

01:11:34.040 They've lost over 100 of their Merkava.

01:11:35.400 A million people have been displaced out of Lebanon because Netanyahu saw an opportunity to clear out Hezbollah and anything related to Hezbollah.

01:11:43.260 But the civilians are being killed there, too.

01:11:45.900 And they're promising to do there what they did in Gaza, which is very scary.

01:11:50.440 Yeah, I don't think it's going to be a viable entity much longer.

01:11:53.660 And I don't say that pro or con.

01:11:55.080 I'm just pointing out, if you look at the damage, I don't know how they get through this as an intact—

01:12:00.220 They were much stronger before this started than they will be coming out of it.

01:12:03.640 Let's just put it that way.

01:12:05.400 And it's like, this was, it didn't have to happen. I'm not defending Iran, not defending, I mean, we all can't stand Iran. It's like, okay, we know what they've done. They have been, you know, popping up here and there periodically over the course of the past 40, 50 years. And they are responsible for American blood and treasure being spilled. There's no question, but more, more got spilled just this week. 1.00

01:12:27.380 And it's doing more strategic damage to us than it ever did before.

01:12:33.120 Yeah, that's the problem.

01:12:34.480 It's just, it's not worth it.

01:12:36.100 Not right now.

01:12:36.940 And we're about to lose politically as well if this keeps going.

01:12:40.440 Brandon, thank you.

01:12:41.340 You've been one of my like sages in following you on X and the podcast that you do.

01:12:46.360 You're so smart.

01:12:46.980 I really appreciate your POV.

01:12:48.240 Thanks for coming.

01:12:49.340 You will, for sure.

01:12:50.400 We'll invite you.

01:12:51.400 Up next, the guys from RCP join us.

01:12:54.320 And there's a lot to go over.

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01:13:53.980 Turning back to the double life of Kristi Noem's husband, Brian, part of the Daily Mail report raising national security concerns that his personal fetish poses. 0.88

01:14:03.620 Again, he didn't admit it all to the Daily Mail, but when asked about the allegations that he's doing it, that he was paying women to show their breasts to him, enormous breasts, and to look at him and his fake enormous breasts,

01:14:16.000 The Mail reports that Brian, quote, made indiscreet remarks about Kristi Noem as well while on these forums.

01:14:24.480 In any event, Brian responded to the part about whether this all opened Kristi Noem up to the threat of blackmail,

01:14:34.200 because, of course, the Daily Mail went to him for comment and he told the outlet, quote,

01:14:37.520 I made no comments like that that would lead to that.

01:14:40.840 I deny the second part of that, but not the whole bimbofication parts. And now we know that 1.00

01:14:48.100 Kristi Noem has spoken to the New York Post, not Kristi herself, but somebody who represents

01:14:54.660 Kristi Noem has spoken to the New York Post and said she's devastated by it. I'm going to get the

01:15:02.720 exact quote. Ms. Noem was devastated. The family was blindsided by this. They asked for privacy

01:15:07.660 and prayers at this time. So she's not denying it either. Her people are saying she's devastated

01:15:14.500 by it. Okay. Here to react, the guys from Real Clear Politics. Before this show on the Megan

01:15:19.020 Kelly channel, Sirius XM 111, you can hear them live. Today we have Tom Bevan and Andrew Walworth.

01:15:25.420 Sadly, Carl Cannon is off because I really wanted to talk to him about this.

01:15:31.920 You know, Megan, it's funny. He gets scheduled on a show and then it's like winning the lottery.

01:15:37.660 I mean, a story like this pops up.

01:15:39.400 We're like, oh, my God.

01:15:42.960 So there is a new wrinkle to this story.

01:15:45.760 It's kind of interesting.

01:15:47.340 Mark Caputo of Axios seems to be getting ahead of possibly a report that he had this story and didn't go with it.

01:15:56.960 Because he is tweeting out, his tweet reads, yeah, I got a weird lead.

01:16:04.780 a source texted me February 13th. They told Axios' Mark Caputo that an immigrant sex worker, 0.81

01:16:13.720 possibly here illegally, wanted to go public about Noam's husband using her services online.

01:16:19.520 It was vengeance for DHS's immigration enforcement. He says he wasn't able to land the interview

01:16:25.680 because he couldn't get the verification the way the mail did. The mail actually got

01:16:31.760 one or more of these workers to talk to them. They got the text messages with Brian.

01:16:36.600 They have pictures of Brian's face. I mean, he can't deny it. It's his face.

01:16:41.160 Plain is, you know, the day with his weird fake breasts and his weird tiny little pants, 0.99

01:16:46.420 hot pink and otherwise. I know Andrew's shaking his head. No, that's how we all you speak for us 0.98

01:16:50.740 all. No, no. In any event, the story has been circulating. It doesn't surprise me at all that

01:16:55.720 it was an illegal immigrant potentially who wanted this story out. The question really is

01:16:59.520 might some of our adversaries have wanted it out.

01:17:02.200 Look at this, look at this,

01:17:03.460 look what's on the board right now.

01:17:05.340 First of all, why are his legs smaller than mine?

01:17:08.540 They're teeny tiny little girl legs 0.99

01:17:10.980 from the look of it in hot pink biker pants 1.00

01:17:13.200 with his enormous cartoon-like fake breasts. 0.99

01:17:16.940 This guy was married to our Department 0.99

01:17:19.440 of Homeland Security chief, Andrew.

01:17:22.760 Of course, I'm gonna start with you.

01:17:26.240 Guys.

01:17:26.680 well uh i had two thoughts one was first leo tolstoy said what counts in making a happy

01:17:32.940 marriage is not so much how compatible you are but how you deal with incompatibility so um

01:17:40.580 did you just go to tolstoy as our first answer on the crispy gnome boob story uh trying to elevate

01:17:49.300 the story um did have to and he's a deep thinker did have to look up wow bimboification which is

01:17:56.400 a new word for me but that is what this fetish is um and then uh finally my initial reaction i

01:18:03.000 wonder what you guys thought my first written when i saw the pictures but oh this is fake news

01:18:07.200 these are ai generated pictures i mean this can't be real but uh apparently i was wrong i guess it's

01:18:13.460 a real story. And, um, I mean, what can you say? I don't know. I do think that national security,

01:18:21.080 I have a lot to say about it. The national security implications of this are serious.

01:18:25.880 And, you know, Tom, there is a case to be made in fairness though, that like,

01:18:29.860 we've all known about the alleged affair between Kristi Noem and Corey Lewandowski. It's the most

01:18:34.300 open secret you can have in Washington. And, you know, maybe this is an argument for not just

01:18:40.280 letting that kind of thing just kind of go by

01:18:42.320 like it's a nothing.

01:18:43.480 Maybe there is a justification when you hear this.

01:18:46.100 Somebody like the DHS chief, okay?

01:18:48.640 She's like Monica Crowley, my friend.

01:18:51.500 She's in charge of protocol.

01:18:53.060 You know, she's overseeing the 250th anniversary.

01:18:55.560 That's great, but it's like,

01:18:57.460 no one's just trying to blackmail Monica Crowley.

01:19:00.180 Homeland security matters.

01:19:02.520 Forget the ICE stuff.

01:19:03.920 Like, I'm worried about like terror attacks and so on.

01:19:06.980 They're the ones who raised the threat level,

01:19:08.260 all that stuff.

01:19:10.280 Maybe this is an argument to like, you actually do need to kick the tires when you hear something like this about someone in that, because who knows how many layers there are to the compromised position she's placed herself in.

01:19:23.220 Yeah, I agree. It raises the question about should spouses be vetted for these positions

01:19:33.220 as well? Because the obvious implication is that they'd go to him and say, listen,

01:19:36.980 if you don't start leaking us information about what's going on in the Department of Homeland

01:19:41.060 Security, we're going to expose this. But look, my first thought at this is like,

01:19:45.540 it all makes sense now. I could never understand why he stayed with her because he sat behind her

01:19:52.980 at the department of home security and it was just sort of like being cuckolded like that it's like

01:19:59.060 you know it never made sense and now it kind of does um my other thought was like i i totally

01:20:07.140 don't believe christy noem and that statement that she was blindsided by this and didn't know

01:20:10.660 anything about it i i would be that that seems impossible or near impossible to me that this was

01:20:16.500 just going on and she didn't know anything about it and the last thing i would say is i don't buy

01:20:22.260 the story that this was leaked by some illegal immigrants you know bent on revenge it happened 0.96

01:20:28.660 after she's already gone i mean we're hearing sort of rumblings that my first thought was well

01:20:34.020 corey probably leaked it after he got fired i don't have any proof of that i'm just saying like

01:20:38.020 that that was my first thought but that this had to come from someone who had this information

01:20:45.700 and was holding on to it, and it wasn't ever, it never made the rounds to the media in years.

01:20:53.460 And then suddenly, you know, she leaves the Department of Homeland Security,

01:20:57.720 and this stuff just comes out. That's not coincidental. So I don't buy the idea.

01:21:01.880 Yes, why do we know about her affair? Why is that, Tom, that we know about her affair for

01:21:07.180 all this time, but we don't, we didn't know any of this, even though he's posting pictures of his

01:21:11.460 face on these message boards.

01:21:13.100 Yeah, exactly.

01:21:13.680 There's a lot more to this story.

01:21:15.620 And it's bizarre to begin with, but it's not over.

01:21:19.380 So do we care now that, Andrew, she is still special envoy for the shield of the America's

01:21:28.220 Western Hemisphere?

01:21:30.600 No one knows what that is because it's a new creation.

01:21:32.760 Now she can be blackmailed and nobody cares like this.

01:21:35.920 I don't know, I guess.

01:21:38.160 I'm not sure.

01:21:39.080 But like, you know, it's not like she was on the message boards with the huge fake balloon breasts like that. 0.99

01:21:46.660 I think she'd have to step down if that were the case. 1.00

01:21:48.840 But do we care?

01:21:50.580 She's still married to him.

01:21:52.280 These pictures are unbelievable.

01:21:53.780 Like, I'm sorry, they're unbelievable.

01:21:56.580 And by the way, I have the same question on this dude as I have.

01:22:00.120 I know somebody who is in my orbit who was a man, a very accomplished man in New York City, who suddenly I walked in, I saw this person one day, and they've gone trance.

01:22:12.420 Now they're purporting to be a woman. 1.00

01:22:14.540 They're wearing a dress.

01:22:15.900 They have long fake fingernails.

01:22:17.740 They have a full face of makeup.

01:22:19.940 They have pearls.

01:22:21.200 They have high heels. 0.78

01:22:22.300 But they still have their man hair, which includes a bald spot and, like, man hair.

01:22:27.260 Hey, easy on the bald spot.

01:22:30.120 I'm just saying, like, are you phoning it in?

01:22:33.280 Like, where's the full commitment?

01:22:35.220 I don't get that.

01:22:36.020 Why is this guy wearing the enormous Kayla Lemieux fake breasts and his man face and his man hair?

01:22:42.500 Andrew, I know you can't explain that.

01:22:44.940 But do we care about special envoy for the Shield of America?

01:22:48.320 Yes, I think we do.

01:22:49.280 I think she should.

01:22:51.200 My feeling is she should probably just resign from public life and take some time off to deal with her family or whatever. 1.00

01:22:58.380 They have three children.

01:22:59.320 This is embarrassing, but it's a terrible look, and in a normal society, yes, this would be the

01:23:10.020 kind of thing where you would sort of say, okay, I'm going to go to the farm and relax for a while,

01:23:15.620 but I am waiting for the Democrats to come to his defense. That's what I'm waiting for,

01:23:19.700 because this is supposed to be okay, right? I mean, whatever he's thinking, he's on some sort

01:23:26.940 spectrum and you know there were more than one gender and this happens to be one that you know

01:23:32.320 um you have a man's haircut and big boobs i mean i guess that's why can't that be one of the 58 0.99

01:23:40.360 genders i saw someone on x saying you know you're so right he's uh he's lucky he didn't have like a 0.96

01:23:46.400 puppy fetish that was pretty funny oh i'm just glad cricket is not here to see this like a furry

01:23:53.180 Cricket.

01:23:54.060 Poor Cricket.

01:23:54.720 God only knows what Cricket's called in Cricket's limited time with the family.

01:23:58.200 Oh, man.

01:23:58.900 I just feel like, thank God.

01:24:00.500 Count our blessings that Cricket didn't have to see this.

01:24:03.320 I will say this.

01:24:04.100 Their children are 31, I think 29 and 23.

01:24:07.480 I mean, that doesn't make it, it makes it a little better than if they were young, young, young kids.

01:24:11.400 But I'm sure they're upset by this. 1.00

01:24:13.340 This is like, this is a nightmare to find out your dad's doing this shit. 1.00

01:24:17.440 It's a freaking nightmare. 1.00

01:24:19.800 And it just reflects so poorly on like our country. 0.90

01:24:22.620 I'm like, the whole thing is so skeevy.

01:24:24.480 I do want to play this soundbite.

01:24:26.560 Deborah So is, I don't remember her official like degree.

01:24:33.460 She's like got her PhD and, you know, sexual fetishes and sex issues. 1.00

01:24:39.300 It's like a Woody Allen movie.

01:24:40.580 She's brilliant.

01:24:42.120 I know, but she's legit and she's very smart. 0.92

01:24:45.700 And she came on the show early on when we just had audio.

01:24:48.420 We didn't have video yet.

01:24:49.340 And listen to her talking about fetishes.

01:24:51.000 There are so many different paraphilias. I really found it interesting to hear what people are into, why they're into it.

01:24:58.040 And I also wanted to help remove the stigma and shame that often comes along with having an unusual sexual preference.

01:25:04.380 I found that there are and there's a larger body of research to suggest that paraphilias are innate in that they are with someone from a very young age.

01:25:15.500 they cannot be changed and that whatever it is that someone finds sexually interesting if it's

01:25:21.840 very unusual there's a biological component to that so previously it was believed to be purely

01:25:27.280 a social thing or that it's something that someone learned I think it's a combination of both

01:25:31.220 but the main takeaway is that if someone has a paraphilia it's not something that they can

01:25:35.260 change so if they're really into something sexually they can't suppress that especially

01:25:40.400 not in men they can't suppress that and be interested in something else by the way that

01:25:45.160 completely tracks with what we know, for example, about like pedophiles. They can't be reformed.

01:25:51.240 We can't just like say, okay, I did three years in jail and now you can have back out to society.

01:25:55.240 We know that's not true. I don't, I don't think that's a sexual fetish, but I'm just saying like

01:25:59.640 that, that logic that you can't be therapized out of your fetish or what turns you on seems real to

01:26:06.200 me, which is why the marriage can't, in my view, continue. Deborah So is by the way, a neuroscientist 0.82

01:26:11.540 who specializes in human sexuality

01:26:13.180 and biological explanations for behavior.

01:26:16.660 I guess some online are upset that this came out

01:26:19.040 on International Transgender Day of Visibility.

01:26:24.320 Not it, Tom.

01:26:26.020 That's not where the story goes.

01:26:28.940 It's not about that at all.

01:26:31.520 Right.

01:26:32.060 So we'll see what happens with Kristi Noem and the husband.

01:26:35.340 I like, it's a nightmare.

01:26:37.240 The whole thing is a freaking nightmare.

01:26:38.700 Okay, let's keep going

01:26:39.680 because we have other things to get to.

01:26:41.540 I know there's been a lot of talk about the Strait of Hormuz.

01:26:44.640 Trump said we have to have it open.

01:26:46.400 Marco Rubio said it has to be open, period, you know, before we end this war.

01:26:50.080 Then Trump, it comes out last night in the journal, has been talking to aides about maybe we peace out while it's still closed.

01:26:55.000 Like, let's not hang around there for too much longer.

01:26:58.500 Well, comedian Lionel Leed went out to the No Kings protest and he got to the bottom of this whole Straits of Hormuz thing.

01:27:07.080 Take a look at this.

01:27:07.840 Not seven beats.

01:27:08.440 on this. Isn't it a little bit homophobic that we're so focused on the straights of Hamus and

01:27:13.940 not the gays of Hamus? Yes, I agree. Yes, for sure. Why do you think they're willing to leave the gays 0.99

01:27:18.680 of Hamus behind? I think it's just history, historically, like, you know, gays have always 1.00

01:27:25.320 been very discriminated against, which is wrong on so many levels. Even in war. Yeah, even in war.

01:27:30.560 It just takes more reform in government, obviously, and then also educating society. I just feel like

01:27:36.280 if we're gonna go in there we can't leave the gay people behind i don't think we should go in 1.00

01:27:40.340 there at all but if we're going to the gays of hummus we could turn it into fire island for sure 1.00

01:27:46.720 what we need to have is more education yeah right more education i think it was uh oh the iron i

01:27:57.340 think jesse waters sent one of his guys into the you know the no king's protests and like spring

01:28:02.600 I mean, they often probably can't even find Iran on a map. I mean, we saw this with the 1.00

01:28:11.280 Palestinian protests and the whole river to the sea thing. People didn't know what the

01:28:14.680 river was or what the sea... They don't know what they're talking about. They're just out

01:28:17.660 there because it's a vibe, right? They hate Trump. They wanna be out there.

01:28:21.420 Yeah.

01:28:22.420 And we were talking about these crowds. She was young, the one you just played in the

01:28:25.880 clip, but these No Kings protests were primarily overwhelmingly boomers from the 60s that were

01:28:32.560 kind of reliving the you know reliving their protest days it seemed like to me but a lot of

01:28:38.600 them still didn't seem like they could articulate exactly what it was they were objecting to or what

01:28:45.420 they wanted um it it's i don't know what to say i got one for you too andrew tom's not having all

01:28:53.660 the fun here's seven c who sings iranians maintain such good woman and lgbt rights as well

01:28:59.980 well that they they have a good leader uh ayatollah or yeah yeah he's very pro lgbt

01:29:09.660 they said he wants the next ayatollah the queen out be a woman no guy but he's a queen 0.97

01:29:16.120 oh like a gay guy they wanted a gay guy to be in charge yeah who cares it's actually 1.00

01:29:21.640 because prophet muhammad actually oh had a lot of gay friends oh yeah yeah oh that's cool 1.00

01:29:27.500 the guy's wearing a fuck Trump sticker this is these are Trump's enemies Andrew I don't you'd 0.99

01:29:35.740 think he doesn't really need to worry and yet the latest polls suggest he does yeah well you know 0.99

01:29:39.960 this reminds me my mom used to uh when she would get mad she would say to me and my brother it's 0.97

01:29:46.980 your whole damn attitude and I think that's what they're saying right it's like they don't the 0.99

01:29:52.560 the inchoate sort of argument against Trump is just that it's his whole damn adage. They just 1.00

01:29:57.720 don't like him. And so on the one hand, it seems like a sort of unfocused protest. On the other

01:30:03.300 hand, it's very focused. It's simply sort of anti-Trump. It's sort of, you know, we can call

01:30:07.960 it Trump derangement syndrome. But basically, he sort of has personified something to these people,

01:30:13.240 which means that whatever he's for, they're against. You know, anything that he does good

01:30:19.340 for the country, they want the opposite.

01:30:23.600 And I mean, that's the way I view the whole thing.

01:30:25.900 They've always been against it.

01:30:26.720 Yeah, and they always work.

01:30:27.580 Tom, if you don't start using,

01:30:29.040 it's your whole attitude against Andrew regularly on RCP.

01:30:32.080 I will.

01:30:34.680 Missed a golden opportunity.

01:30:36.260 But can we talk about these polls?

01:30:37.920 Because these numbers that we've been talking about

01:30:39.620 a lot on our show, they're just dreadful for the president.

01:30:43.480 And you'd truly hate to see it if you're a supporter of his.

01:30:46.280 Now, the Democrats are loving it.

01:30:47.600 They're like, we can't leave.

01:30:50.160 We have to stay in Iran, even though they're totally against it because they want to see 1.00

01:30:53.980 these numbers plummet further.

01:30:55.560 Only 8% support sending ground troops in.

01:30:57.860 I'm sure the Democrats are like, do it.

01:30:59.740 We need ground troops to support the Strait of Hormuz.

01:31:04.140 How does one turn these around?

01:31:07.200 Historically, have we seen dips this low, like these numbers with independents where 0.80

01:31:12.800 he's got 22% approval ratings and still a party able to win, let's say, at the midterms, Tom?

01:31:21.780 Well, typically, I mean, the problem that Trump is experiencing, all right, midterms are typically

01:31:28.960 lower turnout, so they're base elections. And Trump has, he has shattered his base. I mean,

01:31:33.760 the coalition that elected him and has fueled MAGA is now split over this. And it's not like a,

01:31:39.540 it's not a tiny split. It's not a split over a sort of tangential side issue. This was one of

01:31:44.960 his main promises, no new wars in the Middle East. And here he is engaging in it and trying to say,

01:31:51.380 you know, I'll define what MAGA is. And it's not working. It's not happening. And so you go into

01:31:58.360 midterm where your base is divided, the other base is united, you're going to get your ass kicked. 1.00

01:32:03.040 And that's where Republicans are. I think in terms of independence, you mentioned, I mean, 0.99

01:32:07.460 he's lost ground with independents and there may be you know 10 15 percent of the electorate which

01:32:11.700 isn't huge but is important and he's underwater with them not only in this handling of the war

01:32:17.440 but then you go back to sort of domestic gas prices now over four dollars uh that's the main

01:32:22.360 concern is the economy inflation he's not attending to that at all if anything people would say he's

01:32:27.280 making things worse and so yeah it's it's shaping up to be a perfect storm against republicans

01:32:33.640 And then, you know, after that, it's like, well, we'll have to see as the race starts to be the inheritor of MAGA, if somebody can put Humpty Dumpty back together again, whether that's Vance or Ruby or somebody else. 0.50

01:32:48.940 Right.

01:32:49.420 Now you're talking about 28, which is going to start in earnest after those midterms are over.

01:32:54.420 Yeah, I mean, I—

01:32:55.500 Here's the latest polling, Andrew.

01:32:57.780 I'll give it to you one second.

01:32:58.700 Let me just tell you this just dropped.

01:32:59.760 latest YouGov polling, shows that his approval rating on handling Iran. On March 9th, it was

01:33:10.920 39 approved, 52% didn't. So he was minus 12. March 23rd, he was down to minus 19. March 30th,

01:33:20.200 it's now down to 30, the swing, net 30. So 30% of the people approve, 60% of the people

01:33:26.740 do not, and some 10% don't know. So he's gone from minus 12 on March 9th to minus 30

01:33:32.380 on March 30th. With independents, it's worse. He started off at minus 23 with just 30% of the

01:33:40.380 independents favoring it. And now he's down minus 47, 19% of independents approve of the war,

01:33:47.280 66% do not. I mean, that, can you, like, how do you win a midterm election? Do you need the

01:33:55.760 independents, can you do it with just core MAGA if you're a Republican? Because even if you look

01:34:03.280 at core MAGA, which is like 15% of the party or the populace, and then you look outside of core

01:34:10.720 MAGA, you've got sort of regular America first Republicans, and that second group is split,

01:34:16.900 but MAGA's not. They support the president, though, a little bit less than 100% now. It was

01:34:21.820 like now I think it's 90. So how can you win the midterms with those numbers? Well, back up just

01:34:30.000 a minute. I mean, you know, real clear, we averaged the polls just so, because you're quoting, you go,

01:34:35.600 that's a recent poll, but according to our average on the approval of war, it's 51, 53.1% disapproved,

01:34:43.980 39.6 approved. So, but your overall point is correct. It's, it's, these are not great numbers.

01:34:49.860 well what um no in the past three days we've had like a slew of polls we've had four plus polls

01:34:57.380 all of which have these same yeah no no i'm not i'm saying the numbers are not good and the answer

01:35:02.060 to your question is um i think i think the problem with trump is that he he not only if if he motivates

01:35:09.600 his base uh but he motivates the uh democrats maybe a little bit more uh and so i think that

01:35:16.640 The fact that he's not on the ballot is a problem because Trump voters might not come out as much.

01:35:21.940 But what we're seeing in all these special elections, and every special election is special, I get that.

01:35:27.500 But when you look at this trend, those are all going against the Republicans as well.

01:35:33.480 So, no, I think he loses the House.

01:35:36.440 But I think that people expected him to lose the House anyway just based on sort of historic trends.

01:35:41.500 What about the Senate?

01:35:42.460 Well, that's an interesting question.

01:35:43.740 What about the Senate, Andrew?

01:35:44.260 I mean, we've talked about this on our show a lot.

01:35:46.640 I mean, the Senate is an interesting thing because, in my view, the Senate comes much more down to sort of candidate quality in these individual races.

01:35:55.760 So you really have to look at individual races.

01:35:58.840 But overall, certainly it's more in play right now than people thought three or four months ago.

01:36:06.340 Can I just add, even if you set aside Donald Trump and the Iran war, Republicans have an enthusiasm gap, right?

01:36:15.660 That's very clear.

01:36:16.640 what's going on in congress like they won't pass the save act they just like did this the senate

01:36:21.600 just did this ridiculous deal declared victory and went home for two weeks and mike johnson was like

01:36:26.320 what are you doing so there is huge huge frustration um with with the elected leaders

01:36:35.440 in congress from the base of the republican party and and you could really see the bottom drop out

01:36:39.760 to the point where they're just like i'm not voting for these guys at all for i'm not going

01:36:44.240 i'm not doing it and then and then they would lose the senate i mean they definitely there are

01:36:48.080 enough seats out there uh that democrats could pick up if the if the bottom really fell out

01:36:54.960 uh they could easily get there i shouldn't say easily but they could definitely get there

01:36:59.200 and that would mean susan collins would lose in maine that would mean 0.58

01:37:03.040 you know uh they might lose talarico might win in texas yeah maybe i'm thinking more like alaska

01:37:09.520 Ohio, Sherrod Brown would win there and they defend in Georgia and Michigan. And suddenly,

01:37:16.140 you know, you're, you're right knocking on the door of 51 votes. And so that is certainly

01:37:21.600 possible because from what I see, where I sit, there's frustration with Trump, but there's also

01:37:26.440 huge frustration with like John Thune and all the Republican leadership in the Senate in particular.

01:37:31.920 um what is this debbie that you sent me is this republicans um okay she she's pointing out to in

01:37:40.460 that same you gov poll the polling of republicans shows that as of march 9th trump had 83 percent

01:37:46.960 approval of the war by march 30th it was down to 68 percent so he's he's losing now republicans too

01:37:54.260 by pretty significant amounts i mean if you look back at when the iran the iraq war began the

01:38:01.000 the numbers were far, far, far better than this. The majority of the country supported the effort

01:38:05.100 and that was across the board. It wasn't just like the one party, the Republican party that

01:38:09.360 George Bush was from. Now you've got the numbers dwindling by 20, just about 20 points, down 15

01:38:16.460 points, even amongst Republicans from a couple of weeks ago. So it's not great. Here's the other

01:38:22.680 thing that I'm looking at, Tom. So in 2026, the midterms, Republicans defend 23 of 35 seats,

01:38:31.100 but many are in red states. So there's not a lot of, not a ton of opportunities for the Democrats

01:38:35.940 to convert. They could do it to gain control, but it's not great. In 2028, 34 Senate seats are up.

01:38:45.260 Of those, 19 are held by Republicans, 15 by Democrats. Republicans have to defend

01:38:51.640 more seats. Democrats have more pickup opportunities. And so I think the thinking

01:38:56.400 is what, like, they can't give up three or four seats in 26 and then be exposed to that map in 28.

01:39:08.540 Yeah. And then, you know, if, if let's say J.D. Vance is the nominee, which at this point,

01:39:14.180 he's probably, you know, the favorite, according to all the polls. And I think that's probably

01:39:17.920 right and he's got to defend trump's record and let's say the economy hasn't been great or isn't

01:39:23.280 great he's got to defend war and all that um you're looking at democrats controlling the white

01:39:29.440 house the senate and the house they would have you know all the powers of of government at their

01:39:36.260 disposal at their disposal and they would immediately i'm sure abolish the filibuster

01:39:43.520 legislative filibuster. Get rid of the filibuster. Absolutely. Hold that thought. That's where I

01:39:47.680 want to take it. Quick break. And we'll be right back with the guys from RCP on the backside of

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01:41:00.460 Hey, everyone.

01:41:01.580 It's me, Megan Kelly.

01:41:02.680 I've got some exciting news.

01:41:04.620 I now have my very own channel on Sirius XM.

01:41:08.080 It's called the Megyn Kelly Channel, and it is where you will hear the truth, unfiltered, with no agenda, and no apologies.

01:41:14.200 Along with the Megyn Kelly Show, you're going to hear from people like Mark Halperin, Link Lauren, Maureen Callahan, Emily Jashinsky, Jesse Kelly, Real Clear Politics, and many more.

01:41:23.560 It's bold, no BS news.

01:41:25.680 Only on the Megyn Kelly Channel, Sirius XM 111, and on the Sirius XM app.

01:41:34.620 Just take a look here. Oh, hello. Most House retirement since 1930. So far, this cycle already 36, 36.

01:41:44.100 That is the grand record over the last nearly 100 years. My goodness gracious, that actually beats the former record in total, which was 34 back in the 2018 cycle.

01:41:55.040 And that wasn't that long ago. And I do recall that was a very, very good year for House Democrats.

01:42:00.640 The bottom line is this. You don't run for the exits unless you know trouble is brewing.

01:42:06.560 And House Republicans so far believe trouble is absolutely brewing.

01:42:10.700 OK, what they're looking at is the president of the United States and his approval rating.

01:42:14.880 So why don't we just take a look here? Why are GOP retiring?

01:42:17.940 OK, when the president's approval is less than 50 percent, I went back all the way through the record books, all the way back since 1938 and midterm elections.

01:42:26.280 When the House, the press party in the House, on average, loses 34 seats, loses 34 seats when the president's approval rating is less than 50 percent.

01:42:37.840 Hmm. Well, that's certainly not what we want to see come November.

01:42:41.580 Welcome back to The Megyn Kelly Show. Tom Bevin and Andrew Walworth are back with me.

01:42:45.360 It is amazing the number of retirements they're having in amongst Republicans in the House, Andrew.

01:42:51.440 And a lot of people thought it was because, you know, leading up to now, it's tough to ever buck Trump.

01:42:58.700 You know, they're kind of a rubber stamp.

01:43:00.880 And if they're not a rubber stamp, he attacks them.

01:43:03.340 And so, like, it's just not a pleasant life.

01:43:06.280 You know, now it's maybe that's still there or not, but it's like you're also probably going to lose, right?

01:43:12.360 Like they see their fortunes rise or fall with the president's is basically what they're seeing.

01:43:17.300 And probably even worse so because they're not Donald Trump and Donald Trump's not on the ticket.

01:43:24.140 At least he has some hope of getting like the MAGA faithful out there to vote Republican.

01:43:28.560 But when in the midterm he's not there, I don't know, you tell me, how does it affect your average Republican House member?

01:43:34.920 Well, I think those numbers are indicative of just what he was saying, which is that basically a lot of Republicans are thinking it's two things.

01:43:48.100 It's not that fun to be in the House right now, and second of all, they're going to lose, so why bother?

01:43:52.360 So I think that's bad for Republicans.

01:43:54.920 I think what might be, you know, what the Republicans hoped would offset this a little bit would be redistricting, but it doesn't even look like they're going to pick up that many seats through redistricting.

01:44:06.040 So, you know, I think all indications are pointing to a bad, bad midterm for the Republicans in the House.

01:44:13.460 I mean, I don't think there's another way to look at it.

01:44:15.080 Having said that, you remember, Tom, the midterms of 2022, and we really thought there was going to

01:44:22.820 be a red wave and it turned into a trickle. It was like not a wave. They did take control of

01:44:29.560 the house, but it was like by a tiny, tiny margin. So it was like, I don't know, like how much stock

01:44:37.040 can we put into these historical trends? Because things do seem to be a little different now.

01:44:42.140 people are entrenched in their partisanship i don't know what yeah no i agree with that i mean

01:44:46.600 harry enton smart guy whatever but like there are a couple different things right that that

01:44:52.660 comparing 1900 in the 1930s to now is completely different right um and one of the things is trump

01:45:00.200 i mean trump's never had 50 job approval rating he came in in 2016 with i think 44 job approval

01:45:06.360 rating and went down from there. And Republicans, you know, he still managed to win Senate seats in

01:45:13.700 2018, even though Republicans lost. And the other thing too, is that historic number of 34 seats

01:45:20.000 that he was mentioning on average, well, because of redistricting, because of gerrymandering

01:45:25.380 and what's been going on, there just aren't that many seats at play. I mean, so even if Republicans

01:45:31.420 have a terrible night um i you know maybe they lose 25 seats but but there just aren't

01:45:39.900 by the time you get to 34 seats you're you're into deep republican territory and and some of

01:45:44.380 those retirements by the way are you know sam graves just retired from missouri and and these

01:45:49.260 are deep republican districts they're they're getting out just because they're they're tired

01:45:52.300 of the job or whatever it's not like those seats are going to go go democratic so but the point

01:45:57.180 is taken that when the winds are blowing against you, you know, it's a lot of these folks decide

01:46:02.800 that they're just done with it. They don't want to be in the minority. You know, we can talk about

01:46:06.520 how big a wave it'll be, but it looks like it's going to switch the control of the House. And

01:46:13.220 that's, I mean, it is sort of a light switch here. I mean, and the Democrats, at least

01:46:17.340 traditionally, have been a little bit more disciplined than the Republicans when they

01:46:20.960 have a narrow majority. So if that trend holds, I mean, you know, maybe they'll only have a five

01:46:26.520 seat advantage in the House, but does it really matter whether it's five or 30 seats?

01:46:31.000 Well, I mean...

01:46:32.140 And who will be the happiest man in Washington, Tom Bevin, if the Democrats take control of

01:46:37.280 the House of Representatives?

01:46:38.360 Who's going to be the happiest man in Washington?

01:46:41.280 Mm-hmm.

01:46:41.880 Yeah.

01:46:42.520 I don't know.

01:46:43.160 Mike.

01:46:45.020 Mike Johnson?

01:46:47.520 Yes.

01:46:48.780 Yes.

01:46:49.400 He's such a nice guy, but he seems so unhappy in that role.

01:46:52.800 It is just a thankless, thankless job.

01:46:54.680 It is a thankless job, particularly on the Republican side. To Andy's point, Nancy Pelosi did a better job of managing a very slim majority. Hakeem Jeffries is no Nancy Pelosi. So, you know, even if he's got a five seat majority, it's going to be tough.

01:47:10.700 And certainly, you know, if Democrats win the Senate, they'd have at best maybe a one-seat majority there.

01:47:21.100 So it'd be 51-49, and then you still got President Trump as a backstop to veto anything.

01:47:26.380 So, you know, it's going to be – we're in a very tribal, very partisan, very evenly divided country.

01:47:33.580 We have been for a number of cycles.

01:47:34.980 and and this is just the the way you know one side gets a tiny majority in the house or tiny

01:47:40.020 majority in the senate and um and they're not able to necessarily do a lot with it other than

01:47:45.360 investigate uh which is certainly something that democrats will do when they get if they get

01:47:50.400 control of house oversight and if they went control of the senate they will definitely

01:47:53.400 uh well they're probably going to start impeachment proceedings in the house anyway

01:47:56.840 yeah but two cheers for mike johnson a little bit about the the presidential

01:48:01.440 Yeah, two cheers for him.

01:48:02.260 I was going to say, I mean, he's done a hell of a job when people didn't even know who he was before he took the office.

01:48:09.180 I know. And like he's managed to keep the president happy and not have a full revolt in the House.

01:48:14.140 But he's now controversial, obviously, given the role.

01:48:17.520 I want to ask you one other thing.

01:48:19.380 So I'm not going to play it, but Harry Anton did another thing on J.D. Vance versus himself and his 2028 odds.

01:48:27.660 and he showed that Vance had fallen from 53% odds.

01:48:33.640 It wasn't a poll.

01:48:34.780 It was like a Polymarket thing.

01:48:37.040 53% likelihood of becoming the nominee six months ago

01:48:41.140 to, he says, 37% today.

01:48:44.280 And again, that's not a poll.

01:48:45.320 That's like you go to Polymarket

01:48:47.040 or one of these betting sites

01:48:48.260 and when people have to put money behind it,

01:48:50.440 the theory is that it'll accurately reflect

01:48:52.880 what the public sentiment is.

01:48:54.300 um that's it's probably not a great time to ask that question right because like the trump

01:48:59.260 administration's fortunes aren't favored at the moment given everything that's going on

01:49:03.880 but is there any doubt in your mind that jd vance will be the next nominee andrew i because i feel

01:49:09.960 like for me i have no i have no doubt that unless he chooses not to run he's going to be the nominee

01:49:15.140 i think last time i looked at the poly markets i think donald trump jr was in second place in

01:49:19.780 those betting. So I, so I don't, I don't put a lot of stock in the betting right now, but yeah,

01:49:26.500 you would have to, you would have to say that I think he's going to be the nominee. I mean,

01:49:30.520 you know, people talk about Van, about Rubio. Um, but, uh, you know, if you look at what's going

01:49:36.100 on right now, um, and, you know, uh, and Rubio being so identified with the war, um, I wouldn't

01:49:41.880 think his stock is rising. I'd be curious to see what the, that's the thing. So that's very

01:49:46.800 interesting, Tom, because if you talk to sort of the neocons in the Republican Party, they're like,

01:49:52.220 Marco, it's Marco. Nobody likes J.D. now. You know, J.D.'s going down and Marco's going up.

01:49:57.840 And I have to say, from where I've been sitting, I'm like, what do you base that on? Like that's

01:50:03.040 just instinct because the war's not going well. Trump's Trump is the grand poobah. You know,

01:50:08.780 the party loves Trump. Even the non-MAGA people tend to love Trump. If you're a Republican,

01:50:13.000 And he's got, amongst Republicans, very high approval ratings.

01:50:16.920 So if his number can go down, anyone's can, including Marco Rubio, who is much more associated with the war and with hawkishness than J.D.

01:50:25.820 And I also think it's significant that they're saying J.D. should be the negotiator to bring this thing to a close because, like, the Iranians can trust him since he's not hawkish and he can get the president on the phone whenever he wants to.

01:50:40.800 Yeah, look, it's interesting.

01:50:41.940 I mean, on one hand, he's he's the heavy favorite. And you have to assume that he he is is going to run and will most likely be the nominee. However, you know, I look, I've talked to a bunch of folks who are who have and seen some of the stuff online. And, you know, you always fall into the trap. Am I too online? Is this really representative of what's going on in the country?

01:51:03.660 But the folks who were America firsters who was like, that's it. Like, anybody who's involved in this administration, anybody who got us into the Saran War, whether it's J.D. or Marco, like, we're done. Not doing it. Gotta be someone else. Gotta be someone from outside to sort of, you know, reinvigorate or whatever, MAGA.

01:51:21.260 Yeah. So the challenge is going to come perhaps in 2028 from someone on that side of the aisle, whether it's Joe Kent or Tucker or somebody else who will come in there and say.

01:51:32.960 They're looking at Tucker, but I can't see a world in which Tucker runs when J.D. is running. They're too close.

01:51:40.700 Well, right. I agree with that. And, but the thing is then, okay, but JD is going to have to, therefore, somehow, you know, he's going to have to distance himself from Trump on this issue. He's going to sort of have to reassert the fact that, yeah, I wasn't really for this war, but I was, you know, I was loyal and I was doing my duty and all that, I think, to sort of recapture some of those folks.

01:52:02.940 And whether they believe him or not, whether they think he's sincere about that or not, he certainly had this sort of non-interventionist bona fides before he became vice president.

01:52:12.660 And even during the early Iran exchange, he was on those text messages where he was like, I don't think this is a good idea.

01:52:19.520 That's the JD that I think people, at least on the MAGA side, they like that part of him.

01:52:27.500 And so, again, a lot of this depends on how does this war work out?

01:52:30.980 Is it still a disaster six months from now? Is it a disaster? Are we still there a year from now?

01:52:35.680 Then does he have to defend it as he's starting to kick in to his campaign for president?

01:52:40.820 That's going to be a really interesting thing to watch and to see him maneuver.

01:52:44.940 It is going to be very interesting because I think, Andrew, he needs to give the answer that Kamala Harris failed to give on The View.

01:52:50.380 You know, is there anything you would have done differently?

01:52:52.400 He's going to have to say, with all due respect to the boss, you know, going into Iran probably wouldn't have been my choice.

01:52:58.560 but I believed in the president because he's smarter than the rest. And as I said publicly

01:53:03.620 at the time, I could get behind it because Trump is a unique commander in chief, unlike

01:53:08.840 George W. Bush or Barack Obama. But when he's going to have to give this answer,

01:53:14.600 he's still going to be working for Trump. And while Trump will be a lame duck at this point, 0.95

01:53:18.480 is Trump ever a lame duck? Like when he leaves the office, he's still going to be very loud, 0.98

01:53:22.880 very influential in this contest and every other Republican contest for a long time.

01:53:26.820 Yeah, I think when you look back on this period, we will think about how he talked about both Rubio and Vance and how much we tried to figure out where he was leaning.

01:53:37.620 Because sometimes, remember this, we made a big deal of the fact that he would mention Rubio first when he was talking about the two of them as being the next leader of MAGA.

01:53:45.180 And the fact that he was talking about Rubio being the next leader of MAGA at all was kind of interesting to a lot of people.

01:53:51.560 It's just too early to tell.

01:53:53.020 It so much depends upon how the war goes.

01:53:55.140 And, you know, if we're all vacationing in Cuba and playing golf in Greenland, I mean, you know, the world might look very different.

01:54:04.080 They may all be clamoring to take credit for these adventures.

01:54:10.820 Well, Cuba, I mean, you know, Trump keeps saying Cuba is going to fall on its own because they have no oil.

01:54:16.140 They have no electricity.

01:54:17.440 We're letting one oil tanker go through from the Russians so that, like, probably the government officials can turn on their lights.

01:54:25.820 But it's going so poorly there that it is possible something could be negotiated with Cuba.

01:54:32.040 The regime's not so great.

01:54:33.600 They're really not so pro-America, so I don't know.

01:54:36.200 I've been waiting to play golf in Cuba.

01:54:37.780 I don't think the possibility of military operations down there is still on the table after this disastrous Iran thing. 1.00

01:54:42.980 I've been waiting to play golf in Cuba for a long time.

01:54:45.560 you know every every time we predict they're going to fall in six months they don't seem to so i uh

01:54:52.600 i'm just a little skeptical but i thought that was interesting megan like i think trump when

01:54:58.840 he when when he initially launched the the strikes against iran really did think and was told and was

01:55:04.920 convinced that you know we could get this done in four to six weeks despite the fact that his

01:55:09.640 regime had been in power for 47 years and had total control of the media and all the guns

01:55:15.320 and everything and then you know he turns around and he says the same thing about cuba oh i think

01:55:21.240 they're gonna fall like pretty soon it's gonna happen it's like well maybe or maybe not i mean

01:55:26.440 that regime has been in power a long time as well same situation and these these regimes are much

01:55:32.520 more durable than sometimes our politicians think they are so i thought that was in i would love to

01:55:39.240 see it happen i think everybody would love to see it happen most of all marco rubio and uh because

01:55:43.720 he's got, you know, family ties and all that. But it's it's not just going to happen organically,

01:55:50.620 I don't think. That's the Cuban people have been suffering under that regime for 50, 60 years.

01:55:56.460 Well, the other thing that we didn't talk about with Marco is, you know, and I like Marco,

01:56:00.940 I'd vote for him in a heartbeat, but it's not great. He's they kind of put him in the position

01:56:07.020 that Pam Bondi put herself in with the,

01:56:11.560 I've got the Jeffrey Epstein file,

01:56:13.780 the client list on my desk right now, right?

01:56:16.800 Like she put herself in that position

01:56:18.840 by saying it wasn't true.

01:56:20.200 And then she had the influencers there

01:56:21.560 and she embarrassed the influencers. 0.62

01:56:24.180 Poor Marco kind of took a similar shot to the face

01:56:27.500 in being the one who had to come out and be like,

01:56:31.980 we did this because Israel said they were doing it

01:56:34.780 and we knew that we would get attacked.

01:56:37.020 And we didn't want to get attacked first.

01:56:39.460 We wanted to do the attacking first.

01:56:41.360 So that's the reason we did it now, because of Israel. 0.99

01:56:44.680 And then everybody was like, he was like, oh, what I said, we did it because of the

01:56:52.880 Navy and the Air Force and the missiles.

01:56:55.660 And it was like, suddenly the whole thing about Israel went away as though we'd like

01:56:59.000 the evil press had made it up.

01:57:00.280 It's like, no, you're on camera.

01:57:01.640 You said it.

01:57:02.500 You're stuck with it.

01:57:04.200 I think he's been dinged up a little bit by that.

01:57:07.020 you know, I'm sure the administration gave him permission to say that, not realizing

01:57:12.120 the amount of blowback he'd get. So it's just an interesting, you know, footnote to whose

01:57:16.720 fortunes are rising and whose may not be. I too would love to see Cuba. They say wonderful things

01:57:22.000 about Havana. It's supposed to be very beautiful because of the embargo and all that. They say

01:57:26.060 that all the cars are stuck in like the 1950s styles that we had here. You know, we might go

01:57:31.780 down the street and see an ed soul um it's it's very like full of pastel colors and warm

01:57:38.440 winter nights and if we could just get rid of those pesky communists it might be a lovely

01:57:44.140 thing for the united states to have in the toolbox you know as a territory or not you know

01:57:49.860 imagine how prosperous they'd be with all the tourism dollars they generate to be remarkable

01:57:54.540 seriously i don't just like having a rum drink panama hat like one of those white suits i always

01:58:00.620 thought that that that would be fun so big trump hotel right there in downtown havana yeah right

01:58:06.380 yes i would do it i that one i'm kind of rooting for i was i was talked into greenland too

01:58:11.400 never talked into iran however and remain against that one guys thank you both so much you got it

01:58:17.060 thanks thanks great to see you don't forget to check out the real clear politics podcast

01:58:21.900 you can listen to it live right here on sirius xm channel 111 right before we air

01:58:26.760 or you can listen to it via pod later,

01:58:29.340 wherever you get your podcasts.

01:58:31.280 That was Tom Bevan and Andrew Woolworth.

01:58:33.560 Carl Cannon is also part of the crowd,

01:58:35.600 though not today.

01:58:36.520 Thank you all so much for listening.

01:58:37.920 We will be back tomorrow

01:58:39.500 and we look forward to talking to you then.

01:58:41.360 We've got a couple of interesting legal cases

01:58:43.220 we're going to go through.

01:58:45.240 Stay tuned.

01:58:46.200 Okay, see you then.

01:58:47.680 Thanks for listening to The Megyn Kelly Show. 0.94

01:58:49.480 No BS, no agenda, and no fear.

01:58:56.760 Thank you.

The Megyn Kelly Show - March 31, 2026

Shock Story About Kristi Noem's Husband's Double Life, and Trump Warns Europe, with Brandon Weichert, Tom Bevan, and Andrew Walworth ｜ Ep. 1285

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