The Megyn Kelly Show - Trump's Garbage Truck Moment, Biden Biting Babies, and Swing State Polls, with Stu Burguiere, Stephen L. Miller, and Spencer Kimball

00:00:00.620 Welcome to The Megyn Kelly Show, live on Sirius XM channel 111 every weekday at noon east.

00:00:11.900 Hey everyone, I'm Megyn Kelly. Welcome to The Megyn Kelly Show and happy Halloween.

00:00:16.760 Everyone has a Halloween tradition, giving out candy. If you come to my house and you just stick

00:00:21.400 out your bag, you're getting nothing. There's a ritual, there's a routine, kids. And then I'll say,

00:00:26.840 what do you say? And then they'll say, thank you. And I'm like, no, no, it's a very simple

00:00:32.540 transaction. Why don't your parents prepare you? You say, trick or treat. Then I give you the candy.

00:00:38.360 Then you say, thank you. Anyway, it's just a matter of time before my house gets egged.

00:00:43.240 But I believe in instilling manners. Maybe you like to just scare the kids in the neighborhood. Maybe

00:00:48.440 you have a haunted house. Or if you're President Joe Biden, you might bite a few babies. That's

00:00:54.260 that's a thing. Our executive producer, Steve Krakauer, cannot get over this story.

00:01:00.800 Some, some moments we have for me, for you, and some we have for him. We'll get to that in just a

00:01:05.580 bit. Uh, and I want to remind you that we will be live here on The MK Show on election night,

00:01:11.060 just five days away from right now. Five of them, five, fiver, count them on Sirius XM

00:01:16.880 Triumph Channel 111, as well as on youtube.com slash Megan Kelly, beginning at 8 PM Eastern time.

00:01:24.560 We will have, oh, such a cast of favorites. I don't know. Last time I checked, Steve,

00:01:29.420 what did we have? Like 40, I don't know, something like 30 of your favorite guests who are going to be

00:01:36.240 here to pop in, to tell you what they think, to track the election results. We've got data gurus,

00:01:41.480 we've got politics gurus, we've got regular people who, you know, and love, uh, and we will find out

00:01:47.000 together. I hope what the next four years will be. We will find out together. I assume you guys will

00:01:51.880 trust me for the coverage after Tuesday, if we don't know on Tuesday, but I'm still hoping,

00:01:57.440 am I the last one that we might actually know on Tuesday night? And I still kind of believe we

00:02:01.800 might. Maybe I'm crazy. I don't know. To help us get ready for all of that. We are going to start

00:02:06.160 the show looking at what the polls are showing us because we've had some whack job polls dropped in

00:02:12.120 the last day or two, or are they to help break down the complicated mixed bag? We're seeing

00:02:17.680 Spencer Kimball, director of Emerson polling four years of crushing interest rates, runaway

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00:03:17.800 done with debt.com. That's done with debt.com. Spencer, welcome back. Megan, thanks for having me again.

00:03:25.040 Okay. So explain the CNN poll. Okay. Because the CNN poll, everything seemed to be kind of going one

00:03:34.100 way where it was tightening and it was getting a little bit closer. Uh, and Trump was tying it up

00:03:39.720 in each state, if not taking a lead, but that was good for him because he'd been down three or down one.

00:03:46.160 So to be down three and then up one or down three and then tied was good. And then comes this CNN poll.

00:03:52.140 And I realize that life does not revolve around CNN, but the CNN poll did drop and it's got a big

00:03:59.860 lead in there for, uh, Harris in Michigan and in Wisconsin, like plus five in each state. Do you

00:04:09.820 believe it? Well, Megan, uh, a poll is a range of scores. And so when we put out a poll result of,

00:04:17.020 let's say Trump up by one point, that range could be Trump winning by four or Trump losing by two.

00:04:23.280 So when you see a poll that has, let's say, uh, Harris up by five points in Wisconsin,

00:04:28.820 that poll still indicates that yes, Harris could win by five. She could win by 11,

00:04:33.960 but she could also lose by a point. So to me, that, that type of number is really on the outside,

00:04:39.000 the fringe end of what you'd expect in 2020 in Wisconsin, the polling generally had Biden up

00:04:45.860 around six points and he won that state by less than one point. Uh, Michigan had a similar type of,

00:04:52.660 uh, polling error. And this is not just CNN, but generally across the polls, uh, under rep,

00:04:58.800 under reporting the Trump vote. So yeah, when you take a look at some of these polls, uh, they seem a

00:05:04.340 little as an outlier in the fact that like Michigan or Wisconsin, Wisconsin has been a one point race

00:05:09.800 back in 2016. It was a one point race in 2020. Do we really think it's going to bounce five or six

00:05:15.480 points in a direction when it's been so locked in? And then if you jump over to Michigan, do you think

00:05:21.540 Michigan is closer or further away for the Democrats than they were in 2020 when Biden wins by just over

00:05:28.600 two points? Um, this would suggest that Harris is doing better than Biden when a lot of the other

00:05:34.820 polling, particularly the national polling is also showing the race tightening, uh, closer to 2016

00:05:41.480 numbers than compared to 2020. Okay. So having dealt with CNN, which you seem to be suggesting may be

00:05:49.300 a bit of an outlier, um, you know, take it with a grain of salt and they haven't been doing a ton of

00:05:53.840 polling. Like I think their last poll was, uh, a few, a couple of months ago. So they don't, I don't know

00:05:59.520 if they have their finger on the pulse or what's happening there, but having dealt with that zoom out

00:06:05.040 and tell us where you think this race stands. Well, yeah, if we take a look at like the big picture,

00:06:11.480 remember where we were in July and August, where Trump takes this big lead when Biden is faltering

00:06:16.640 and then Harris jumps into the race and then she appeared to take a big lead of four or five points

00:06:22.140 nationally. But what we've seen really since that first debate, even a little bit before that debate

00:06:27.480 is a slow melt of that support for Harris. And what it looks like coming into the election is there's

00:06:33.700 some momentum for Trump as we enter election day in some of these States. And remember, it doesn't

00:06:38.740 need to win all of the swing States just to get to the two 70 Mark. And when you do look at that

00:06:44.700 polling as a whole, for example, Pennsylvania, uh, we don't see many polls having Harris leading

00:06:50.500 in Pennsylvania. You see polls that are tied or they're slightly leading towards Trump.

00:06:55.800 Pennsylvania is a key state for the Democrats. If they lose Pennsylvania, really difficult road to

00:07:01.040 two 70 for Harris. So, uh, that's a number that, uh, as you take a look at, it looks like Pennsylvania

00:07:07.320 should go towards Trump and that would suggest he would have some success on election night.

00:07:11.340 But if Pennsylvania does flip and stays with Harris, that opens up some other pathways,

00:07:16.700 uh, that we've been seeing, but the general take is that Harris is doing slightly worse than Biden in

00:07:22.800 2020. And the question is, is it worse enough for Trump to be able to overtake her in States like

00:07:28.920 Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, all within a point, you know, those are all States that ended up within a

00:07:36.080 percentage point. The other States that are a little bit further away would be Pennsylvania and

00:07:41.520 Michigan, but, uh, those are also very competitive. Most of them have it tied or within a point on

00:07:47.420 either side. Okay. Let's, so let's talk about possible paths because as I was looking at the

00:07:54.280 numbers today and, you know, you can just Google those interactive maps and start clicking on what

00:07:58.700 if she wins these States, what if he wins those States? Um, cause I was looking, I compared the path,

00:08:04.080 the possible paths to the latest battleground averages, um, taking the real clear politics and 538

00:08:11.420 averages of all polls. And for example, I looked at Georgia, our CP average has Trump up 2.4 538 has

00:08:20.140 Trump up 1.8 in the average of all polls. The latest Emerson poll, which was earlier in October

00:08:25.200 showed Trump up one. So it looks tight, but it looks somewhat comfortable given the comparison States

00:08:32.740 for Trump agree or disagree. I would agree. Even at, you know, with our poll at one point,

00:08:39.460 the previous poll was at three points. And so we were seeing some movement in Georgia,

00:08:43.820 but I think Georgia is a pretty strong state for Trump. He seems to be getting along with

00:08:48.480 governor Kemp fairly well at this time. And those numbers are around, I think what you mentioned

00:08:54.840 on the aggregate around two to three points, which remember Trump does better in 2016 when he wins the

00:09:00.760 state and then Biden barely takes it in 2020. Maybe it falls in between those two numbers, but it seems

00:09:06.840 to be leaning towards Trump at this time. Just the makeup with Kemp should be worth 11,000 votes.

00:09:13.260 You would think we did see his numbers shift almost immediately after those two patch things up.

00:09:18.280 Okay. North Carolina, there was a report earlier this week. I don't know how much stock to put in

00:09:23.580 it, frankly, because it hasn't been everywhere. And the polls still show North Carolina tight,

00:09:29.560 but there was a report by the Carolina journal that she had pulled some $2 million worth of her

00:09:35.120 advertising from North Carolina. And she had made like a 2.3 or $4 million ad buy, and she pulled

00:09:41.900 almost all of it out. And it's not because she's running away with North Carolina. You know, it's

00:09:46.720 not like she's up 10. This is looking more like Minnesota. So why spend the money there? But it

00:09:51.840 being as tight as it appears to be in the polls, you also wonder why she would throw in the towel there,

00:09:56.980 given that her campaign is rich. They have a lot of money. So I don't know what's happening in North

00:10:03.760 Carolina. It's strange to me that she'd pull the ads, given what I see in the polls, but maybe you

00:10:08.580 can help me. RCP average has Trump up one, 538 has Trump up 1.1. The Emerson poll, your group in

00:10:15.040 late October showed Trump up two. Yes. And so North Carolina is one of those states that Harris is

00:10:23.200 trying to win back from the Republicans. So it's always trying to win, you know, a game on the other

00:10:27.900 team's home field. And North Carolina would be a Republican home field, like Georgia is a Democratic

00:10:33.200 home field, where they're trying to hold those electoral votes that Biden won, and the Republicans

00:10:38.600 are trying to take that back. But North Carolina's, I always thought, was a bit of a stretch for the

00:10:43.300 Harris team. This is a state that Trump won in 2016 and in 2020. It's been a state that has been pretty

00:10:50.880 solid. Remember, it goes for Obama in 08 and then switches back to Romney in 2012. So North Carolina

00:10:57.500 historically would be a hard state for Harris to try to break through on. I know that the Democrats

00:11:03.260 were a little bullish with Mark Robinson, the lieutenant governor gubernatorial candidate for

00:11:07.720 the Republicans, showing a weak campaign against Stein, thinking that there might be some reverse

00:11:12.820 coattails. But we're not necessarily seeing that in our numbers. It looks pretty, you know, even though

00:11:18.520 two points isn't huge, it's still within the polls margin of error. But it's a big number to overcome

00:11:23.820 for the Democrats. And I think that's maybe why she pulled some of that ad buy out of North Carolina,

00:11:30.720 because if Stein is still only at 12, 13 point lead in that gubernatorial race, that might not be

00:11:37.260 enough to pull her over the top. And in fact, we see a much more ticket splitting when we see folks

00:11:43.560 going on the Trump side, willing to balance their their ticket that way. So I don't know if it's going

00:11:49.960 to help Harris in that regard in North Carolina. I mean, I can see a real MAGA voter in North Carolina

00:11:56.680 being like, the lieutenant governor is a hot mess. I don't believe his denials on all of his weird

00:12:02.540 scandal. But I love Trump. I'm not going to make Trump pay for this guy's scandal. So I guess

00:12:09.340 well, Megan, to your point. Yeah, go ahead. I was gonna say, you know, he's been down Robinson's been

00:12:15.140 down by double digits for months. And it hasn't impacted the top of the race. You know, as you

00:12:19.760 mentioned, those polls have it, you know, tied or one point, it's probably leaning to Trump by about

00:12:24.260 one to two points. But that's going to be a lot to overcome considering the situation.

00:12:29.660 Mm hmm. Okay, so let's go. We did Georgia, we did North Carolina. Let's talk about Arizona. RCP has

00:12:35.940 Trump up 2.5, 538. Again, this is the average of all polls. And they they curate the polls,

00:12:42.700 they don't take any poll in these averages, they, they only include the top notch pollsters with a

00:12:47.960 proven record, like Emerson, and others. Okay, so five, 538 has 2.2. So up 2.5, up 2.2. In the

00:12:55.760 averages, Emerson had Trump up to in early October. What do you think is happening in Arizona?

00:13:02.980 Arizona, as a border state is a little different than these other states we've talked about,

00:13:07.200 because immigration is their top issue. So when we talk about the swing states, it's generally

00:13:12.540 the economy is the top issue at around 40%. But in immigration, it drops down to about 30%. And

00:13:18.340 immigration is at 30%. And then what's also interesting in Arizona, which is different

00:13:22.900 than these other swing states, where females are voting for Harris and males are voting for Trump in

00:13:28.980 Arizona, both males and females are breaking for Trump, not by the same propensity like we're seeing

00:13:34.960 of males in other states. But both eight, both genders are breaking, which is unusual considering

00:13:40.380 there has been a gender divide in in this race. But in Arizona, it's unique. I think the immigration

00:13:47.100 issue, it separates it from the other swing states. And that's been a state that Trump has been leading

00:13:52.980 for a while. The Senate race there is different, where Gallego seems to have a small but steady lead

00:13:59.640 over Lake, pretty consistent. So there again, the ticket splitting is what we're seeing where they'll go

00:14:04.680 with Trump, even though they went with Biden last time, this is a state where Trump could try to win

00:14:09.500 back those 11 electoral votes. Wow. I mean, Arizona has gone more and more blue lately. They've got

00:14:15.580 this Democrat governor. They've got Democrat senators. So is Arizona still a red state? Would

00:14:23.280 you say? I mean, I realize it's one of the swing states, but is it in its nature? Do you think it's

00:14:27.160 like it's more red than blue? Well, I think the issues are more red, but I think the voters are more

00:14:33.840 purple and they're willing to vote across aisle lines. They're not, you know, locked in with one of the

00:14:39.500 parties. So we, like we may have seen in the past, I don't think it's get Barry Goldwater country,

00:14:44.300 exactly what, you know, was back in the day, but yeah, there's an inkling based on the issues,

00:14:49.360 particularly on the immigration side to try to get that resolved and solved. And so those line up

00:14:55.440 better with Republican candidates. But as you mentioned, the Democrats do have, uh, they were

00:15:00.100 able to take both Senate races and the gubernatorial, the governor's race. So Arizona has definitely been

00:15:06.200 open to the democratic approach, but they've also rejected too far of a progressive Democrat.

00:15:11.840 And that's what makes the Gallego race really interesting that he's been able to hold onto

00:15:15.960 that lead, even though he's a little bit more progressive than where Arizona tends to be.

00:15:21.960 Yeah. You got Mark Kelly. Um, but I mean, Gallego, he's definitely a progressive guy,

00:15:28.420 but they just don't seem to be responding well to Carrie Lake for, you know, a host of reasons.

00:15:33.100 She was on the podcast saying, I disagree. My internal polls say these polls are wrong.

00:15:38.240 We'll find out very soon whether any of that is true. Um, okay. So that's so, so far based on this

00:15:43.900 discussion, it would appear Trump is actually looking good in Georgia, in North Carolina and in

00:15:50.080 Arizona and Nevada. Remarkably Spencer seems so far to be leaning Republican. Doesn't mean things

00:15:59.360 won't change over the next five days as the voting continues, but like something incredible is

00:16:04.340 happening in Nevada. Well, Nevada, you know, used to be more of a swing state and it's become more

00:16:10.860 Democrat over the last, you know, six to eight years. Uh, Obama helped make it more Democrat, but,

00:16:16.620 uh, they've been pretty strong at like two, two and a half points for Clinton, two, two and a half points

00:16:22.300 for, uh, Biden. Now the race is much tighter. It's about a half a point. I still think it leans

00:16:30.160 towards Harris, but Trump has made up a lot of ground. Uh, again, the Senate race seems Jackie

00:16:37.120 Rosen's got a stronger lead over the Republican Brown, uh, by a couple of points. So you're not

00:16:41.880 seeing any coattails from Trump moving down perhaps, but that's a state where I think the Democrats can

00:16:49.340 still hold it. It's six electoral votes, which are important, but it could also swing. It's really

00:16:54.640 rolling the dice there in the silver state. Uh, those polls have been really tight. Now what's

00:16:59.440 interesting there is that you've got this huge Hispanic population and Hispanic polling is really

00:17:04.620 difficult to do. Uh, some Hispanic in the Hispanic community, they're much more, um, uh, not, not as

00:17:12.620 confident of taking the polls. They're, they're not willing to answer the phones or, or give out that

00:17:17.400 information. And so sometimes that polling can get a little wonky out there, but what we've seen

00:17:22.380 is a pretty consistent close race between these, uh, two candidates for a couple of months.

00:17:28.700 But what I'm basing my comments on are the John Ralston reports on how the early voting seems to be

00:17:35.200 going. And it seems we discussed this with Charlie Kirk yesterday, like the Republican votes coming in

00:17:41.620 are exceeding anything they've seen in the past. And from counties that they didn't expect,

00:17:47.140 like the Democrats so far, the response in Clark County, which is where that's how they win the

00:17:51.160 elections out there, right? Clark County. It's, it's the Vegas district. That's how the Democrats win

00:17:56.020 are a lot. The Democrat response has been lower and the Republican response has been higher than they

00:18:00.800 anticipated. So right now you, if you're Trump, you have to be feeling better than you've ever felt

00:18:06.860 before about your chances in Nevada. You do. And in those early voting numbers that you you've

00:18:13.760 referenced, uh, it's important to see the Republicans, I believe are plus five. They're

00:18:18.200 about 39% of the vote versus 34% for the Democrats in these early vote, which is counter to where the

00:18:24.340 Republicans were four years ago. Now, are they cannibalizing their election day vote or is there

00:18:29.420 even more Republican vote that's going to come out? If that's the case, then Trump will take the,

00:18:34.300 the state because he's leading right now in the early voting. I presume the Democrats will get

00:18:40.120 a push, uh, through their culinary unions or, or other groups out there to try to match that vote.

00:18:46.580 But those are important numbers to follow over the next few days, because if the Democrats don't match

00:18:51.640 that 39%, the conventional wisdom is the Republicans will have a better day of get out the vote effort

00:18:58.480 and should be able to maintain whatever advantage if they have one on election day.

00:19:03.120 Well, it'll also really be interesting to see whether the culinary unions and so on do what

00:19:08.120 the teamsters did, where the pressure from the top is to get out and vote and to vote blue,

00:19:12.980 but the rank and file don't listen. They, they don't want who the people who are running the union want

00:19:20.280 and they go into the voting booth and they do what they think is right. So, you know, it's just with

00:19:26.780 Trump. It's not as clear cut as it used to be when it comes to the union vote. So I, even that, I,

00:19:33.900 I don't know. I'm not sure the Harry Reid union machine is going to be as helpful to the Dems as

00:19:39.000 it has been. I think that's a great point, Megan. And it's not just in Nevada, it's Michigan,

00:19:44.780 it's Pennsylvania. What we're seeing is this whole change of the electorate happening right in front of

00:19:49.700 our face. And sometimes you don't recognize it when, you know, the wind's blowing in all these

00:19:54.000 directions, but I can see the working, the, the union votes shifting a little bit from left to

00:19:59.780 right. And then more of that elite, uh, higher educated vote shifting a little bit more from

00:20:05.280 the right to the left. And we'll see how it all balances off on November 5th, but it seems as if

00:20:11.320 the electorate is being shaken up this election cycle. Okay. So of the four States I just listed,

00:20:16.820 which would give Trump the presidency, North Carolina, Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada,

00:20:20.920 which is the one most likely to go blue and not red. Nevada. Yeah. Okay. So that would be six

00:20:29.340 electoral votes over to the blue side. And that would mean Trump would need to win one of the blue

00:20:34.160 walls. He's, he would have to win Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania, which are tougher.

00:20:39.640 I think that's a tougher road. I mean, again, Nevada, as you point out is more of a blue state,

00:20:44.200 but given the weirdnesses we just discussed might not be ungettable for him. So which of the three

00:20:50.060 blue walls is he looking the best in Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania?

00:20:56.140 So in our polling, we've seen him strongest in Wisconsin and Wisconsin was a state that he lost

00:21:01.820 by half a point. Uh, remember Michigan and Pennsylvania, he loses by a larger amount, about

00:21:07.900 two, two points in Michigan, about a point in Pennsylvania. Remember Nevada is a state where

00:21:12.880 in 2020, Nevada is a state where, uh, Biden wins by just over two points. So out of those states,

00:21:19.180 Wisconsin was the closest of them. And what we've seen pretty consistent in all of our polling is a

00:21:24.360 zero to one point Trump advantage. And it's not a huge advantage, but we have consistently seen in

00:21:31.220 Wisconsin polling under represent Trump. So in all of the polls, not just the Emerson poll,

00:21:37.120 every poll out there generally has underrepresented Trump in 2016. And again, in 2020. And when I say

00:21:44.100 it's like five points, six points. So to me, anything in Wisconsin, that's tied the conventional

00:21:50.400 wisdom is that Trump will take it because we're underrepresenting. It's not intentional. I went on

00:21:54.700 to capture everybody's opinion, but it's just historically, you got to look back at your track

00:21:59.120 record and say, what States are harder to pull than others. And that happens to be, it seems one of those

00:22:04.980 states. Why is Wisconsin so hard? And by the way, Trump is working in Wisconsin. That's where he was

00:22:10.480 just last night in the garbage truck, in the garbage suit, praising Brett Favre, you know, all for,

00:22:16.740 for good reason. But why is Wisconsin so hard to pull?

00:22:23.060 Uh, it's hard to know. I, we would have to do more research into it. Um, but when we look at our poll

00:22:29.880 results, then when we look afterwards, what we find is that the white male misrepresents their vote

00:22:35.500 total. So in the past, they've underrepresented their interest in Trump. And so we're, we monitor

00:22:41.560 that, that group and see if they're voting more consistently this time around. But that's what

00:22:47.080 we've seen in the past is, you know, a couple of groups, uh, particularly in the Midwest, they maybe

00:22:52.100 give us answers that they want. They think we want to hear as opposed to what they really think.

00:22:56.080 And that can impact some of these poll results. And it's important that like when we're trying

00:23:01.320 to capture opinions in particularly in 2016 and a little bit in 2020. So if I asked you,

00:23:06.660 if you're a Republican, well, I don't think every Republican is the same these days. You have like

00:23:12.040 the George Bush Republicans, and now you have the Donald Trump Republicans. So it's important that

00:23:17.420 what we're seeing in the polling is we can see who they voted for in the past. We asked them who they

00:23:21.880 voted for. And we're hoping that gives us more consistent numbers that if they voted for Trump

00:23:27.000 in the past, they'll stick with him this time or vice versa, as opposed and have the right

00:23:32.200 representation of Republicans. So we don't want, you know, 40% Republicans, but 30% are really more

00:23:39.340 Dick Cheney, George Bush Republicans that aren't in line with never Trumpers. And so that's where the

00:23:45.500 polling I think can get off where they have, it looks right, but it's the type of people that they

00:23:50.260 have in that sample that are off. And that's what we're looking at internally in Wisconsin. We're

00:23:54.760 hoping to get a little tighter out there. You have to have follow-up questions after a Republican,

00:23:59.600 like, how do you feel about the UFC? How do you like McDonald's? How do you feel about Diet Coke

00:24:08.260 and Hershey's? Like whatever, Trump's little nuggets about Trump and see how they react. Okay. So that was

00:24:14.340 Wisconsin, which I should tell the audience, RCP has Harris up 0.2, 538 has Harris up 0.8 and Emerson

00:24:22.040 poll in late October showed Trump up one. Okay. So now we're still talking blue wall, which one of

00:24:27.700 which Trump would have to get if he does lose Nevada or any of those other states in the sunbelt we

00:24:31.560 discussed. Michigan, Michigan, RCP says Harris is up 0.5 or 538 says Harris is up one. Emerson poll

00:24:40.140 late October showed Trump up one. Michigan is super important and super weird this cycle in terms of,

00:24:48.280 I don't know. It just seems like with the Muslim vote and they seem to be warming up to Trump. And

00:24:53.500 we had that mayor of Dearborn or near Dearborn endorse Trump and he was Muslim. And a lot of

00:25:00.540 Muslims polled say they believe Trump will end the war in the Middle East faster than Harris would.

00:25:08.000 And we had Charlie Kirk on yesterday saying there are a lot of Muslim men who frankly don't want to

00:25:11.940 vote for a woman. There's still, you know, strain of sexism in certain areas of the country and

00:25:16.500 certain religions, certainly. So what do you make of Michigan?

00:25:20.420 So Michigan is probably Harris's strongest state, but probably a toss up. And it's their strongest state

00:25:27.960 because she won it by the most out of these swing states back in 20 or Biden won by the most in 2020.

00:25:33.380 So this is a state that she's going to try to carry. This is a state where Trump won in 2016 by less than

00:25:40.960 a percentage point. So he's trying to win this state back. And he's shown that the state's willing

00:25:46.540 to vote for him. They've also shown willing to vote for the Democrat. I think last cycles, the midterms

00:25:53.840 gubernatorial election was a bit of an outlier where Whitmer wins by over 10 points. I don't expect

00:26:00.320 Michigan to be a 10 point state. I don't, you know, even in the Senate race, this seems to be

00:26:06.720 closer to a two to three point race. But again, I think Harris is slightly underperforming where

00:26:13.080 Biden was in 2020, even in Michigan. So I don't think she's as high as that two point lead that he

00:26:19.260 had. It could be at a half a point, a point. And it certainly could go over to Trump by a point or

00:26:25.260 two. So it's all within that range of scores that we talked about at the beginning where,

00:26:29.920 you know, you could have a poll at five points on one side and one point on the other.

00:26:33.980 And the polls are all maybe within that margin of error if that candidate wins by, let's say,

00:26:39.020 two points. And we'll obviously have to wait till maybe November 5th or after to find out what the

00:26:44.660 final results are. Right. Okay. And that leads me, my friend, to Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania RCP shows

00:26:50.800 Trump up 0.8. 538 has Trump up 0.4. And Emerson poll in late October showed Trump up one. And there's

00:27:00.140 now a Monmouth analysis out, a poll from October 24th to October 28th showing it tied, tied.

00:27:10.440 This would be, it's only 824 Pennsylvania registered voters in here, not a huge amount and a 3.8

00:27:17.680 percentage point margin of error. And the headline out of this poll is Trump's prospects hinge on low

00:27:23.960 propensity voters. So before I get to that, cause I do want to talk to you about, you know, the Trump's

00:27:30.280 challenge of getting the guys up off of their couch to get them down to the, you know, the polling

00:27:36.000 station where women tend to run and men tend to like, eh, I don't know. And that's a challenge

00:27:42.660 for him before we do that. Let's just do to Pennsylvania on a more macro level. And these

00:27:47.620 numbers, this has been the tightest state's been the most contested state. Um, each one will be

00:27:52.160 devastated if they see it goes to the other, her, especially Kamala, especially, but where do you

00:27:57.820 think Pennsylvania is? What are you thinking about? Yeah. So Pennsylvania to me is the, the,

00:28:03.860 the keystone state of the election. Um, and everybody's been watching it for a while. This

00:28:09.280 was Biden's home state in, in, in a sense, uh, Scranton. And it was one that he was able to wrestle

00:28:15.440 back from Trump by about a point. And again, it seems as if Harris is running a little bit lower than

00:28:22.320 where Biden was last time, particularly in minority groups, uh, where the vote isn't as strong. And, and

00:28:28.500 that is a gender divide as well that we see there. Uh, but we do notice that those numbers are slightly

00:28:34.500 under and older voters. Uh, Biden did slightly better with those over 70 compared to what we're

00:28:40.880 seeing with Harris right now. And so that's why we see that, you know, Pennsylvania is a toss up

00:28:45.620 slightly leaning towards Trump, uh, as her numbers are slightly under performing where Biden's were.

00:28:51.920 Um, and I'm not sure where the bounce is going to come back from her. If you notice at that poll

00:28:56.820 in, in the aggregate of those polling, when's the last time Harris was leading in Pennsylvania

00:29:02.680 in one of these polls, uh, generally it seems to be tied or slightly towards Trump. So we'll see,

00:29:09.560 uh, maybe there is this hidden female vote that the Democrats have discussed that might come out.

00:29:15.840 And again, these races are close enough that if there's a two point, you know, vote, there's 160,000

00:29:20.900 people that are part of that hidden vote. But what we've seen over the last eight years is that

00:29:25.980 Trump has the hidden vote. Um, and we'll see if it reverses this cycle, but if not Pennsylvania,

00:29:31.660 it seems to be a pretty, uh, a pickup opportunity for Trump as well.

00:29:35.620 Well, now's as good a chance time as any to discuss the weirdness of the polling in 2022,

00:29:40.260 we expected the red wave. It didn't come. They had been obviously overestimating Republican,

00:29:45.220 uh, support expected at the polls that year. And we were all shocked to see it did not materialize.

00:29:52.300 We were used to them underestimating the Republicans, at least when Trump's around.

00:29:56.360 And in this case in 2022, they overestimated it was post Dobbs. The electorate was pissed

00:30:01.540 and women did turn out to the polls to make that clear in places like Michigan.

00:30:05.960 The big thing of course was Trump was not on the ballot. So he didn't really give the low

00:30:11.440 propensity voters a lot of reason to get off the couch and go to the polling station, but

00:30:15.760 it's not 2022 anymore. He's back. He's done the McDonald's. He's done the garbage truck.

00:30:22.340 He's doing everything a candidate can do to create that warm, fuzzy feeling in the hearts of his

00:30:27.080 voters. Like I love the guy and I, I must help him. So how do we reconcile polling errors of the past

00:30:35.100 where we don't overestimate the Trump vote now as a way of under, of correcting the underestimation of

00:30:41.220 Trump in 16 and 20? Like, you know, it's another way of asking, are the polls right?

00:30:47.800 Yes. And so, um, they'll be within the margin of error. I presume 95% of the time, but this is a

00:30:54.780 historical thing that you've seen like president Obama in 08, he breaks the record for the most

00:31:00.420 votes ever 69 million votes. He gets in that record doesn't get broken until 2020. So it was a

00:31:05.880 phenomenal campaign. And then what happened in 2010, he loses the Senate, loses the house.

00:31:10.660 And then 2012, he comes back and he's on the ticket. So I do agree that when you have the

00:31:15.060 candidate on the ticket, that's when you're going to pull out that major vote. Now, maybe some

00:31:19.580 pollsters, uh, overestimated that turnout in 22, but I would be careful not to expect that same turnout

00:31:26.640 in 24. So the midterm elections, like in 2018, you don't see that, that Trump turnout in the

00:31:33.780 Democrats do really well. In fact, most of the seats that they're defending this year are those

00:31:38.740 seats of 2018 because it's in that cycle. So they were able to win in that, uh, midterm election.

00:31:45.060 This time they don't necessarily have the wind at their back as much as they did in those midterms.

00:31:50.500 Now it's a little bit more in their face. And we saw already in West Virginia, potentially in

00:31:54.860 Montana, uh, maybe in Ohio, maybe in other States, some of these Senate seats swinging back to the

00:32:01.160 Republicans, which would be an indication that you do have a different turnout in 24 than we have in

00:32:08.400 these midterm elections. And you could look at 2018 as a basis for that. Okay. So interesting. By

00:32:14.800 the way, uh, audience note, we have Sheehy from Montana on the show tomorrow. So that'll be

00:32:19.180 interesting, uh, shortly before the vote. All right. So back to that Pennsylvania poll in the

00:32:23.140 Monmouth, uh, analysis that I said, they, they conclude Harris does best among high propensity

00:32:29.140 voters. Trump's path to victory relies on turning out enough low propensity voters, people who don't

00:32:35.380 have a very consistent history of getting to the polls, be it in a midterm election, a special

00:32:42.820 election, or even in a presidential election. I mean, I'm thinking if I'm looking at that,

00:32:46.800 I'd rather be in the Harris camp. I'd much rather have to, you know, my whole base made up of people

00:32:51.260 who never miss a vote. So how does this factor in? Well, one, it's a presidential year and that's going

00:32:58.120 to be our highest turnout election out of any election that we hold. So midterm elections, you

00:33:03.180 know, what do we have about 50, 55% turnout here? It should be 60, 60 something percent turnout. So

00:33:09.440 you, you have your natural turnout models. That's what's happening with the electorate is that it's

00:33:15.180 not just high propensity, low propensity. The low propensity is your, is your working class person

00:33:20.880 who doesn't vote in these off year elections, doesn't vote in the municipals, doesn't vote, but they

00:33:26.420 vote once every four, once every eight. In 2016, we saw people that hadn't voted in like 16 or 20

00:33:33.620 years and came back into the cycle just to vote for Trump. And that's that hidden Trump vote that

00:33:39.560 we continue to miss in both of those cycles. And the question that the Democrats now have is maybe

00:33:45.380 there's a hidden Harris vote that we're missing in this cycle and that we're overestimating Trump.

00:33:50.180 But based on what we've seen in the past, I'm not there. If there's going to be a hidden vote,

00:33:56.540 it's most likely going to be the Trump vote. However, just anecdotally, we've noticed there's

00:34:01.460 a lot more like Trump enthusiasm, number of signs, number of people out there, as opposed to 2016,

00:34:07.520 where there was more of a spiral of silence regarding a Trump supporter. Here, we see that

00:34:12.300 Trump supporters pretty loud and that we presume that they're going to be engaged in the surveys and the

00:34:18.560 polls. But there is still skepticism amongst Trump supporters to take these surveys and polls.

00:34:24.520 And that's what might be leading to some of the under or overperformance by Trump compared to the

00:34:31.380 poll numbers. And we have dear friends in Bucks County, Pennsylvania, and they I know you can't

00:34:36.160 go by lawn signs, but they were saying they've never seen so many that it's overwhelming. People

00:34:40.360 are wearing it loud and proud. Spencer, I know you've got to run. What a pleasure. You're great.

00:34:45.080 Thanks so much for being here. Oh, Megan, thank you for having me. Have a great day.

00:34:50.240 Yeah, you too. Don't you guys love Spencer? I love Spencer. He's so clear and he brings you through

00:34:54.780 it in a way that you can really understand. I do want to point out two things I didn't get to with

00:34:58.600 Spencer. I talked about that Monmouth poll in Pennsylvania, which shows them tied. Quinnipiac

00:35:06.600 just dropped a poll conducted October 24 through 28. And it shows Trump up to 49 to 42. Margin of

00:35:16.660 error is 2.1. So it could be in there. They also show the gender gap has widened. Men back Trump by a

00:35:23.160 20 point margin. Women back Harris by a 19 point margin. Trump going on all those male podcasts,

00:35:32.600 you know, from Rogan to Theo Vaughn to our good friend, Sean Ryan seems to have helped. That's

00:35:37.980 my guess because on in October 9th, men back Trump plus 11 and he's almost doubled that. Now he's up

00:35:45.480 at 20. Harris had 15, a 15 point advantage back then. Now she's gone up just four points with the

00:35:51.780 women. And then finally in the USA Today, pollsters dropped a new poll on Michigan that had the candidates

00:36:00.320 tied. So a very different story than that CNN poll showing her up five, which again, Spencer points

00:36:05.800 out could just be a margin of error situation. You know, it's, it's not consistent with any other

00:36:12.900 of the data that we're seeing. So very fascinating. We're not going to have to wait much longer,

00:36:18.380 I think to know the actual data, but, and nor are we going to have to wait much longer to hear from

00:36:23.960 Stu Bergier and Steven L Miller, otherwise known as Red Steez. They're next. With the holidays

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00:37:26.580 Megyn Kelly Show.

00:37:30.760 Joining me now, Stephen L. Miller. He's a contributing editor at The Spectator and host of the

00:37:35.220 Versus Media podcast. He's also a must-follow on X. You can find him at Red Steez. And Stu

00:37:42.500 Bergeer. He's host of Stu Does America for The Blaze. Guys, welcome back. Great to see you. I don't

00:37:48.440 know if you heard any of Spencer, but there's a little greater pep in my step after listening to

00:37:54.160 him because Emerson polling is right down the middle. They call it like they see it. They're

00:37:59.260 not, you know, they're not like a Trafalgar where they're trying to like bend over backwards to find

00:38:04.580 it. And I like Trafalgar. Don't get me wrong. I'm not disparaging them. But he seems pretty bullish

00:38:09.820 on Trump's chances in really seven out of the seven, Michigan being the one that he says might

00:38:18.660 be most likely to go blue, but not to count Michigan out either. I mean, Stu, I know you take a close

00:38:24.440 look at this stuff for The Blaze. What do you think? I think he's right on the money. You're

00:38:29.620 right. Emerson is one of the best at this. And I think, you know, you're at a situation where

00:38:34.720 we are, it's a really close race. Everybody knows that. I think the momentum is toward Trump. And I

00:38:41.220 think if I were one of the, it had to be one of the candidates, I'd rather be Donald Trump in this

00:38:46.060 race. That being said, it's really, really close. And I think Nate Silver's model for, to give an

00:38:53.180 example, has it at something like 39% chance that either one of the candidates wins all seven of these

00:39:01.080 swing states. I think it's 24% chance for Donald Trump to win all seven and a 15% chance for

00:39:06.120 Kamala Harris to win all seven. And if that happens, it's going to feel to all of us like

00:39:09.960 it's a blowout, like we're going to have over 300 electoral votes. Everyone's going to be saying

00:39:14.580 how this is a mandate. At the end of the day, though, it's a really close election. It really

00:39:19.420 could go either way. It's Halloween, and I'm scared.

00:39:23.580 What do you think? I mean, what I was saying to Spencer was just looking at the map right now,

00:39:31.580 it looks like Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, sorry, Arizona, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina

00:39:36.520 are, are, I don't want to say Trump's, but are definitely leaning Trump. Those are three states

00:39:43.980 in which I think he has a very solid chance of winning. And then I think Nevada so far looks

00:39:49.700 amazing. Spencer said he thinks Nevada could still go blue. It has a history of going blue. It's not

00:39:55.880 like a red state. It's just that the early voting data seems better than expected for Republicans.

00:40:02.560 But what do you think of that analysis, red stees? Because I think Trump could do this with just the

00:40:09.640 sunbelt, just those sunbelt states, and wouldn't even need to touch any of the rust belt, which I think

00:40:16.280 he probably will anyway. Yeah, I'm not a huge polling or election prognosticator. There's one

00:40:23.640 detail I think people are really overlooking, and this isn't a conspiracy. This isn't mass voter fraud.

00:40:29.920 This isn't you stop the steal or anything. But in six of the states that Trump needs to win,

00:40:34.960 if Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, all have Democrat governors

00:40:40.860 with Democrat appointed Secretary of State. Michigan's already said, we're not going to have

00:40:45.980 our results for two weeks. Pennsylvania doesn't even start counting mail-in ballots until election

00:40:50.600 day. And so I'm kind of out here looking at, if you're out here saying that Donald Trump is a

00:40:55.420 fascist and he's the next Hitler, are you guys really going to obey every election law and certify

00:41:00.920 Hitler? You saw Mark Elias, who is a Democrat powerhouse lawyer. He's also part of Kamala Harris's

00:41:07.800 election team. He's the guy that led the charge to get Trump thrown off the ballot in places like

00:41:12.540 Michigan and Colorado, where it almost succeeded. And you just saw how in one of these states,

00:41:19.780 they basically said they're going to be allowed to count ballots even three days after the deadline,

00:41:25.640 the legal deadline. And I think that this is something that is laying a blueprint where even if

00:41:31.520 ballots come in postmarked that shouldn't be counted, we just saw what happened in Michigan with

00:41:35.960 a Chinese national who cast a vote and he's being charged with a crime. But Michigan's sitting

00:41:41.620 here going, his ballot's already been counted, nothing we can do. I don't think people are

00:41:47.280 preparing themselves for the amount of shenanigans that are going to happen. And this is not a

00:41:51.200 conspiracy. This is not Donald Trump screaming about voter fraud. And it's not, this is about,

00:41:56.680 again, the rhetoric matching the actions. And if Donald Trump is Hitler and if he's a fascist,

00:42:01.900 do you really think that Whitmer, Shapiro, Evers in Wisconsin, Hobbs in Arizona are just going to

00:42:07.700 go ahead and go, well, I guess we have to certify the election for Hitler. So I didn't mean to kind

00:42:12.960 of throw you a curveball here, but I know I'm not sitting here saying like all this talk about polling

00:42:20.400 and stuff like Trump's close and he may eke out Michigan. I'm sitting here going, this is why local

00:42:26.680 elections are so important. This is why, you know, losing Arizona with Carrie Lake as a governorship

00:42:32.060 in 2020 was so important because five or six of these swing states all have Democrat governors with

00:42:37.680 Democrat appointed secretary of states. So if you guys think that this is all just going to be neat

00:42:42.920 and tidy and, oh, election night, oh, there went Pennsylvania. Nope, there went Michigan for Trump.

00:42:47.700 I think you guys need to buckle up because we're about still three months out from knowing who's

00:42:52.960 actually going to win this election. It most likely will get kicked up to the Supreme Court.

00:42:59.580 And now you understand why all of these stories about Alito and Thomas are coming out. Now we have

00:43:04.600 another one from Jane Mayer who's out here. Alito belongs to some Catholic men's group and they're

00:43:10.600 trying to make it sound like it's Opus Dei. And so they're laying the ground. Good, because you can't

00:43:16.440 get rid of the Supreme Court. I hope it does wind up in the Supreme Court because for the first time

00:43:21.300 in forever, we finally controlled that six to three and they can cry liberal tears when it goes up

00:43:26.940 there because those justices will do the right thing. Sorry again for the buzzkill. They're not

00:43:30.280 going to want it to land in the Supreme Court. It is a buzzkill, but still, I don't know. I'm

00:43:34.740 Pollyanna-ish on it, I guess. I actually think we might learn as soon as election night and I think

00:43:39.860 it could potentially be a blowout. Sadly, it could be a blowout either way, but I still think we

00:43:46.060 actually might know on Tuesday night. Do you think I'm nuts? What do you think?

00:43:50.600 I think there's a, I'm kind of with you in the idea that it is actually really possible. I mean,

00:43:55.000 it's not crazy to see that, you know, if Trump has the normal polling error in his favor,

00:43:59.620 there's a really good chance that we know. For example, if he wins Georgia, North Carolina,

00:44:06.060 and Pennsylvania early, and he knows it, we kind of can sense that by one or two points,

00:44:12.280 you know, there's a good chance that he has won the electoral college. You know, Stephen pointing

00:44:16.280 out that all sorts of shenanigans happen afterwards. Who knows with that? But I think

00:44:19.660 it's definitely possible. If a polling error goes in Trump's favor, he probably sweeps all seven of

00:44:25.560 those. And if he does that, you're going to see maybe not, we're not maybe completely sure. Like in

00:44:32.080 2016, we weren't completely sure. Still some people calling for Hillary Clinton not to, you know,

00:44:38.120 concede, but we pretty much knew. And I think that sort of thing is, is possible. I will say

00:44:43.460 though, we knew we just couldn't believe that's what, that was the problem in 2016. It was like,

00:44:48.000 there's no effing way that just happened. What? Right. Like then in 2020, it was a little bit

00:44:53.660 more clear, but Trump, you know, that, that could happen. What happened in 2020 could happen this year

00:44:57.900 where you go to bed thinking one candidate won and you wake up finding out another one has won

00:45:02.080 because of the mail-in vote, which I think will be substantial, but not as substantial as,

00:45:05.300 as it was in 2020 during that peak of COVID. So that's why I feel a little bit more rosy about the

00:45:11.040 possibility of knowing on, on Tuesday night. Now, maybe that's just my history of, you know,

00:45:17.500 covering lots of elections on Tuesday nights for Fox news. And we always knew. So I'm kind of trained

00:45:21.680 to believe we could know, uh, things have changed as we know. Okay. I have spent a lot of time

00:45:26.580 suggesting Trump could win. It is also possible, uh, that Kamala Harris could win. And, um, there is a

00:45:33.600 question about whether the polls are right at all, whether we should be listening to the polls at

00:45:38.160 all. Here's Harry Enten over on CNN in SOT2. So I went back and checked out whether or not a party

00:45:44.680 outran the polls, three presidential election cycles in a row in the key battleground states.

00:45:49.620 It's never happened. It's never happened. Zero times, zero times since 1972. So if the polls are

00:45:56.980 going to underestimate Donald Trump once again, that would be historically unprecedented. Now,

00:46:01.660 maybe you want to make the argument that Donald Trump himself is historically unprecedented,

00:46:05.060 but what normally happens is the pollsters catch on. Hey, we're underestimating. We're not taking

00:46:10.340 into account some part of the electorate. They make adjustments. And I think that helps to explain why

00:46:15.140 we have never seen that the same party has been underestimated three times in a row in presidential

00:46:20.120 elections, at least over the last 52 years. If we went back to 2020, right, all the polls, Pennsylvania,

00:46:25.680 Wisconsin, Michigan, those three key Great Lake battleground states, they favored Trump by a wide

00:46:30.500 margin. But there was this group of pollsters that actually had Trump out ahead. And indeed,

00:46:36.000 Donald Trump's best polls in 2020 were eight points better than the poll averages in those states. So

00:46:41.000 there was this idea, this universe, hey, maybe the averages are really underestimating Donald Trump.

00:46:45.420 This time around, the question that I had was, are there still these polls that may indicate that

00:46:50.120 the averages are really underestimating Donald Trump? This time around, there's really not the evidence

00:46:54.560 for it. The best polls for Trump actually only have him running about three points ahead. So I wouldn't be

00:46:59.020 surprised if even this is indicating, hey, wait a minute, these polls that suggest that Trump will

00:47:03.940 do better than the average are actually too good for Trump. And what do we see in 2022 in Michigan,

00:47:08.340 Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin? Well, it turns out that the average poll in those states actually

00:47:12.900 underestimated Democrats by four points. Because if it turns out that the polls underestimate Donald

00:47:17.960 Trump, or underestimated the Democrats, excuse me, like they did in 2022, what happens? Well, Kamala Harris wins a

00:47:24.760 sweep because she wins all these Great Lake battleground states. She wins down in the southeast, and she wins down in the

00:47:29.920 southwest, and she gets the 319 electoral votes.

00:47:32.620 How do you like that for a possible outcome, Stephen?

00:47:35.980 I think it's all Calvin Ball at this point. I do agree with Stu that the race seems, the momentum seems to favor

00:47:43.600 Trump. There was a great post somebody had on Twitter that said in 2016, Trump was having fun. In 2020, Trump was not

00:47:51.440 having fun. In 2024, Trump is having fun again. And so I look at this and I go, again, I'm not a pollster, I'm not an

00:47:58.440 election prognostic here. I would say what Stu said, if you wanted to be the two candidates right now, who would you

00:48:04.880 rather be? And I think I would rather be Trump. And again, with North Carolina, Georgia, and then I was paying

00:48:12.020 attention to Nevada, some of these states here, and now there's even talk that that Colorado was kind of

00:48:18.160 leaning towards red. So if that happens, look out.

00:48:22.820 If you say anything like that, or New Hampshire, Virginia.

00:48:24.820 Yeah, I think the idea that like, yeah, that all seven of these states are going to go one direction, I think is not

00:48:32.180 likely. And beyond that, I can't give you much expert analysis.

00:48:36.720 All right, Stu and Steez, stay with me. And after this break, we will get to Trump garbage,

00:48:43.600 Kamala Harris's meltdown over Trump's comment on protecting women, and Biden eating the feats of

00:48:49.220 babies. The feet, it happened. You won't believe the video, but we'll show it to you next.

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00:49:54.600 First of all, happy Halloween again to everybody just tuning in. And don't forget, we are live right

00:49:59.680 here covering election night for you on youtube.com slash Megan Kelly and on SiriusXM, Triumph Channel 111,

00:50:07.420 starting at 8. Tonight, I will be going as hot garbage. That will be my Halloween costume. I think

00:50:13.540 you're really going to like it when I post it after the fact. I decided to do what all the young

00:50:17.600 gals do, even though I'm not young anymore, and not just make it garbage, but hot garbage. That's

00:50:22.280 what every woman seems to do. You could go as a burger. You have to be a hot burger. You could go

00:50:28.700 as a cow. There was a picture in the New York Post yesterday of some woman who's going as a hot cow.

00:50:34.460 So I'm going as hot garbage, which actually is a thing. Okay, anywho, garbage. Trump did the right

00:50:42.320 thing and leaned in. He wore the garbage vest. He got in a garbage truck. He held a quick mini

00:50:53.080 presser from the garbage truck. Here's a little bit of that in sophomore.

00:50:59.380 I think the Democrats have done a very poor job. We're leading in every state. We're leading big.

00:51:05.980 And I think that the comment made by really both of them, because there are really two of them,

00:51:11.160 about being garbage, maybe 250 million people, they shouldn't be talking. That's like deplorable

00:51:17.620 for Hillary. This is the deplorable for Hillary. And I think this is worse, actually. For Joe Biden

00:51:23.780 to make that statement, it's really a disgrace. I love Puerto Rico, and Puerto Rico loves me. I don't

00:51:29.420 know. I don't know anything about a comedian. I don't know anything about the comedian. I don't

00:51:33.800 know who he is. I've never seen him. I heard he made a statement, but it was just a statement

00:51:38.520 that he made. He's a comedian. What can I tell you? How do you like my garbage truck? This truck

00:51:43.840 is in honor of Kamala and Joe Biden. So first of all, one of the great things about Trump that

00:51:50.620 goes under-recognized is that he tells you exactly what he wants you to think. That's effective

00:51:55.100 messaging. It's worse than Hillary's deplorables. It is worse than Hillary's deplorables. He wants that

00:52:00.640 in your head. And the garbage thing, like this is, it's that bad, like over and over telling you how

00:52:06.100 you should think about it. That's the genius of Trump. And that picture right there of Trump in

00:52:11.700 the garbage truck that reads Trump, make America great again on the side, 2024, with the American

00:52:16.140 flag flying large and blowing in the wind from where he is. It's another iconic photo, just like

00:52:21.720 the one of him in McDonald's. It is another iconic photo. So then Trump goes and holds his rally in

00:52:28.560 Wisconsin. And he tells the story. This was, this, this is just classic Trump of how this whole thing

00:52:38.400 came about the truck and the vest, which he is still wearing inside the rally arena while he tells

00:52:45.580 the story. And I come into the arena and I say, where's my jacket? I want to get out of this thing.

00:52:53.420 And they said, it would be unbelievable if you could wear it on stage.

00:53:03.260 And I said, no way. I got 25,000 people standing outside. I got all these people here. There's no

00:53:11.220 way I'm wearing it on stage. They said, oh, okay, sir. I said, get me my jacket. But if you did,

00:53:17.420 you know, it actually makes you look thinner. I said, and they got me, I said, I want to wear it on

00:53:27.160 stage. When they said, I looked in, I said, in that case, I'll wear it on stage.

00:53:34.820 Classic, vintage, right on point. And then he adds the following about the difficulty in getting up

00:53:47.460 into one of those huge garbage trucks, which would be hard for most people. And, you know,

00:53:53.920 Trump's not exactly the slimmest man. Talked about how it was a little bit challenging for him.

00:53:58.720 So I said, man, if I don't get up there, this is going to be very embarrassing.

00:54:05.900 These stupid people, they'll say, he's cognitively and physically impaired.

00:54:14.220 And I can't do that when I'm alongside of this great athlete. I got to get up to that.

00:54:18.520 So, so, so look, so the stair, the first stair is like up here. I'm sick. Shit.

00:54:27.500 So, so I had the adrenaline going and I made it.

00:54:32.700 I made it. And then I gave a little news conference from the front of the, you know,

00:54:46.540 they asked their wise guy questions and everything. And then we drove about two feet. I got out,

00:54:53.640 got into the plane.

00:54:54.400 So good. Stu.

00:54:59.900 I didn't know Hitler was so funny. I mean, that is a hilarious Nazi right there. It really,

00:55:06.960 it really is. You know, I would say if I was in the meetings before they started scheduling this

00:55:11.340 thing, the McDonald's thing, you're going to go on stage in your garbage outfit. I think as a

00:55:17.740 campaign advisor, I'd be like, no, dude, please don't. You're going to look like Dukakis with his

00:55:22.160 head out of the tank. It's going to be terrible. And there's just something about unique, unique

00:55:26.180 about Trump where he can pull these things off. I mean, this was endearing. He's a funny,

00:55:31.260 endearing guy when he wants to be. And I think if you look back to 2016, Stephen kind of mentioned

00:55:35.400 this earlier, if you go back to 2016, he was, he was kind of this new guy and he was, he was,

00:55:40.300 he was had his funny moments. He was still sort of an entertainer to most people. And then 2020 was

00:55:45.080 sort of like, you know, it was a little darker. It was more of an insult comic version of,

00:55:49.160 of Trump at times right now. He's just got the vibe, right? This is the, this is smart

00:55:53.820 campaigning, putting him on these podcasts. It's where he shines. He's able to be honest and trying

00:55:59.600 to be, you know, authentic. I mean, Kamala Harris is completely incapable of having moments like we

00:56:05.920 just saw. She's not, she can't do it. And because she can't do it, she can't go on the Joe Rogan

00:56:11.380 podcast for three hours. She can't have these moments that are connecting with people and Trump,

00:56:16.360 you know, look, it's still very close election. A lot of people hate his guts. He may very well

00:56:20.040 lose, but it won't be because he's Hitler. It won't be because any of that stuff is true.

00:56:25.280 He's a pretty entertaining guy. And that's why, you know, he was one of the most famous people in

00:56:29.860 America before he started running for president. You know, Stephen, we're getting to know Trump in

00:56:34.240 a way many people have never seen him before. He's talking about his personal life more like on Joe

00:56:39.220 Rogan, you know, his reaction to the white house, some of the behind the scenes things that we saw

00:56:44.080 in say Tucker Carlson's documentary, um, art of the surge. Um, even some of the behind the scenes

00:56:50.080 video that they've released of him with his boys backstage of the, the one debate, you know,

00:56:55.140 calling them sweetheart and honey, like his grown boys, sweet. And then this, right. He's self

00:56:59.940 deprecating. He's making fun of his size. He's making fun of how hard it would be to get into a

00:57:05.740 garbage truck like that. His vanity. I think this is actually very effective. And I, to Stu's point about

00:57:11.500 the Dukakis thing, Ian Sam's, the spokesperson for the Kamala Harris campaign, like a, just a

00:57:17.900 complete hack tweets out who would have dreamt that he'd have not one, but two Dukakis moments in

00:57:25.300 one campaign, putting out the, the pictures of the McDonald's picture and him in the truck, like

00:57:31.360 completely not getting it. And in that one tweet, you look at, you think I'm starting to get why

00:57:37.880 they're doing so poorly. Like I'm, I don't, I don't know that Kamala Harris is all that well

00:57:41.940 served by this team. Uh, Ian Sam's is the comms guy who famously put out the juicy Smollett lynching

00:57:50.500 tweet. And so that just so you know who the context of who that is. Yes, he is. What? Um,

00:57:56.540 you generally, you just, Oh yeah, a hundred percent. You generally know how effective Trump's stunts

00:58:01.960 bizarre based on the reaction of the people who don't like him. Uh, and this has been the case

00:58:07.300 for years. And this took me back to 2016 when people didn't think he was going to win. It's

00:58:12.420 like, how can we actually go for this? There, there was an interesting moment. Uh, you may not remember

00:58:16.460 it, but Trump went to Pennsylvania and he stood in front of like a wall of garbage. And you had

00:58:22.680 several journalists and people, the media like clowning on him about the advanced team. And they're

00:58:28.320 like, who, who thought this was a good idea for Trump to go to this, uh, garbage plant or a

00:58:33.420 recycling plant or whatever it was, it stand in front of this wall of garbage. And then he also

00:58:37.920 did a thing where he put on the hard hat and they all kind of goofed and clowned on it and it worked

00:58:43.000 and he won and he won that state. And so I take things like this, they're funny and they are political

00:58:50.000 stunts, but you take things like this and to kind of echo what Stu said, Kamala Harris could be doing

00:58:55.720 this stuff. Uh, the whole McDonald's thing was both a, Hey, I kind of want to go and do this,

00:59:00.460 but it's also a thing to, to question if Kamala Harris ever worked at McDonald's, which nobody

00:59:04.720 is saying she hasn't. There's just no evidence that she has. She could have gone and done that.

00:59:09.500 And this is to me kind of why this is effective is like what he said, Trump can go on Joe Rogan and

00:59:14.880 just, you know, BS for three hours. Kamala won't do that for, for one reason or the other.

00:59:20.340 Uh, Trump can go to McDonald's and work the fry. The fact that she let him get in front of that

00:59:25.480 before her is mystifying to me. And so I looked at this thing from 2016, when again,

00:59:32.260 he's at this recycling plant, Pennsylvania, we'd never seen a Republican do that. We didn't see

00:59:36.760 Mitt Romney, you know, stand in front of like a, just a wall of recycled aluminum and, uh,

00:59:43.120 talk to voters. And that's kind of the whole effectiveness of what Trump did in 2016. We can

00:59:48.520 go through the antics and we can go through the brashness and all of that. But Trump talked,

00:59:53.080 started talking to voters that the Republican party hadn't been talking to for decades. And

00:59:59.020 that's why he is effective at doing these kinds of things. We can laugh at the gaudiness of the

01:00:03.500 orange vest. Um, but that hits different for people that he's somebody who he's largely allowed

01:00:10.000 to rise to power in the Republican party because he's speaking to people that the Republican party

01:00:14.200 has ignored. That's right. I mean, honestly, one of my questions for Donald Trump at that first

01:00:21.180 debate, I think it was at the first one back in 15 was how long have you been a Republican?

01:00:26.720 Because Trump wasn't, he, he was a Democrat, but Trump was just kind of more nonpartisan. He had

01:00:33.380 his issues that he cared about and he understood. And he mentioned this on Rogan, like you, you kind

01:00:38.820 of got to run and you got to pick one. Uh, you can't run independent. It doesn't work out well.

01:00:42.900 So he picked Republican and instead of him falling on his face and the Republican party squashing him,

01:00:47.980 he bent the Republican party to his will and it's now his party. And that's why he's getting such a

01:00:53.520 different coalition. Uh, they're putting him over the top now. He just likes slapping the crap out

01:00:57.380 of politicians. That's it. And there, no, no, no, no base feels more betrayed right or wrongly by

01:01:04.400 their politicians than the Republican party. And Trump just tapped into that. He just went up on stage

01:01:08.600 and made fun of Marco Rubio and made fun of Rand Paul and made fun of Jeb Bush. And that's really all

01:01:13.480 that the voting base wanted at that point. Now, not everyone took so well to Trump's

01:01:19.540 appearance last night, uh, in the garbage truck. I give you Nora O'Donnell, who seems to be on like,

01:01:25.720 I don't know if she got some sort of, maybe she was jealous of her co-host of that vice

01:01:31.560 presidential debate, Margaret Brennan, for getting all of the criticism from anybody who was paying

01:01:37.580 attention for that debate. She, maybe she wanted to be in the news more for her bias because she seems

01:01:41.820 to be on a string on like a streak of getting as hardcore leftist as possible in her last waning

01:01:49.460 months in the anchor chair. Here she is last night on the CBS evening news. He landed in Green Bay

01:01:56.860 just a short time ago and then pulled this campaign stunt speaking to reporters from a garbage truck

01:02:03.080 proof that he and his supporters are giving no grace to a gaffe by President Biden, where he and his

01:02:08.440 explanation inadvertently called Trump supporters garbage. This of course was in response to that

01:02:14.080 racist joke about floating garbage told at a Trump rally just last weekend. Vice President Harris is

01:02:19.660 distancing herself from the negativity and trying to drive home her unifying message that if elected,

01:02:25.440 she will represent all Americans. Oh my God. It's different hearing it. I saw it written in my

01:02:34.760 package going on CBS. It's that is amazing. That's really incredible. God, she had everything in there

01:02:43.320 about like that would show the bias. That's like his campaign stunt. He gave no grace to poor Biden

01:02:50.960 who clarified. Meanwhile, here's Kamala Harris with her unifying message. Oh, and a joke was told a

01:02:58.200 racist joke at a Trump rally without without attributing it to some comic. Nobody's heard of

01:03:04.480 like who told the joke could have been Trump, right? Like everything's in there, Stu.

01:03:09.760 Yeah, yeah, it's it's so true. And it's like if you think if you go back and you look at like

01:03:14.040 the way they reacted after 2016 in the media, I think you get a real window into what's happening right now.

01:03:19.580 In 2016, there was this idea that it's part of the hell of my life is to have to watch the

01:03:25.080 mainstream media every single day and react to it. And when you saw the reaction after 2016,

01:03:30.820 there was this idea that maybe people would kind of wake up and say, well, maybe we are in a little

01:03:35.900 bit of a bubble here. Maybe we don't recognize what's going on in the in the rest of the country.

01:03:40.340 There was this sort of, you know, don't take Trump, literally take him seriously thing. And

01:03:45.520 maybe maybe we need to wake up a little bit and understand, like, what's the real motivation of

01:03:50.060 irregular people in the center of the country. And you thought that what might be what they took

01:03:55.020 from it if they were being honest. But of course, they didn't go that direction. Instead, the lesson

01:03:58.980 they really took out of that election was to say we should have never covered the Hillary email

01:04:04.600 scandal. Because the fact that we gave any opening at all to that, even though most of our coverage was

01:04:10.260 to disprove it or say it wasn't a big deal. The fact that we alerted to anyone to that at all

01:04:15.180 kind of puts the blame for this Trump thing a little bit on us. And next time, we're not going

01:04:19.420 to let that happen. We saw as we got to 2020 with the Joe Biden laptop, they didn't let it happen.

01:04:24.600 Right. They shut it down. They didn't cover it. They banned people from tweeting it at the time.

01:04:29.220 They did all the things they needed to do because they look at this as almost like a legacy. Right.

01:04:34.620 I can't be seen as someone who didn't do my part. My part was to make sure every single word I said

01:04:42.200 pointed people to the right direction, led those stupid horses to that glorious water. And they

01:04:48.020 tried it. They've been trying it. I think the American people have woken up. But you have to

01:04:52.820 think if you go back a decent amount of time before the Internet, all this stuff probably would have

01:04:56.680 worked on the American people. Thankfully, there's at least a way for us to push back and get the truth.

01:05:01.560 And I just don't think stuff like Trump is Hitler is going to be effective in this environment.

01:05:07.180 I hope I'm right. But, you know, of course, who knows? It's amazing, though, because like this one's

01:05:10.480 not even Trump is Hitler. It's just like the bias in every phrase that she offered was readily apparent.

01:05:15.540 And trust me, I have sat in front of these cameras on network news and I know exactly how it works.

01:05:20.380 At that level, they have a writer who takes the first crack at the script. Then you would have a producer

01:05:25.280 and on CBS Evening News, you'd have an executive producer look over the script before it went into the

01:05:30.120 prompter and you would have the anchor look at the script before she read it to make sure she's

01:05:34.640 comfortable with what she's about to say. So at least that level of review happened before Nora O'Donnell

01:05:41.220 got out there and said it was a campaign stunt. It was he gave no grace to poor President Biden,

01:05:51.160 who's clarified the remarks. And he was only responding to that racist joke that was told

01:05:57.120 at the Trump MSG rally by whom I'll leave it to you to figure out could have been the big man himself.

01:06:02.780 And oh, by the way, here's Kamala Harris with her unifying message. It's dripping with bias.

01:06:10.760 It's obvious for enough for a five year old to see. And they saw it, too. They just don't care.

01:06:17.560 They know she's not winning. She might be tied, but she's not winning.

01:06:21.780 And they truly are in a panic. They will do whatever they can now to stop her. And that

01:06:27.720 was reminding me of Stephen's opening point. I want to give you a little bit more. Lawrence O'Donnell

01:06:32.580 will not be outdone on the on the excuse making for Joe Biden. And here was his take

01:06:41.220 on how Joe Biden didn't really say that half of the American people, those supporting Trump,

01:06:48.100 our garbage sought eight. Do so. They had to refuse to listen to the actual sentence Joe Biden spoke.

01:06:55.480 They had to refuse to look at the written words of that sentence. They had to refuse to understand

01:07:02.020 what English grammar. They had to refuse to understand what a singular possessive is. They

01:07:08.380 had to refuse to understand what apostrophe S means. They had to refuse to remember what they learned in

01:07:16.280 elementary school about the English language. The terrible campaign reporters and commentators

01:07:21.740 who are covering this campaign. It's not all of them, just the terrible ones are completely exploitable

01:07:28.380 by Donald Trump. And Donald Trump knows it, which is why Donald Trump, the stupidest candidate ever to

01:07:34.160 run for president, climbed into a garbage truck today. Oh, God. Possessive apostrophe gate.

01:07:44.380 They don't understand apostrophes. That's what went wrong there, Stephen.

01:07:49.840 Trump went and did like the stunt in the vest in the in the in the garbage truck. Kamala Harris needs

01:07:54.860 to come out wearing an apostrophe costume for Halloween, like watching watching the American

01:08:01.300 media try to will an imaginary apostrophe into existence is is a top five thing. And I've been doing

01:08:09.280 this a while. This is a top five thing I've ever seen. And they know how bad this was, because you

01:08:14.980 can you can see the gears grinding in these people about how do we how do we explain this one? And

01:08:20.980 it's kind of like Sideshow Bob doing the die bar die tattoo on his chest. He's like, No, this is the

01:08:26.060 bar. No, there's a comma there. You just didn't see it. It's absolutely incredible. And like I said,

01:08:33.360 you can gauge the level of panic based on how ridiculous their reaction is. And that has a lot

01:08:39.620 to do with that thought. OK, let me then let me give you another one. You don't like that one.

01:08:43.560 You don't like Lawrence O'Donnell. Why don't we try out Kelly O'Donnell over on NBC? There's her

01:08:49.160 theory. Stop 15. If you look at about a minute's worth of the remarks from President Biden when he was

01:08:55.760 speaking to Latino groups last night, that context appears more clear. Also, it's important

01:09:03.220 to know that the president always has that battle against stuttering. And that seemed to be apparent

01:09:09.080 in this as well. We're left in a position now as anyone who looks at this to make their own

01:09:14.940 assessment. His battle is his brain is applesauce. Well, here's what's interesting. Here's what I'm

01:09:20.980 kind of it kind of irritates me because I know some people who have stutter and I've seen them stutter.

01:09:26.340 And when they're trying to say something and the stutter gets in the way,

01:09:29.440 they then say the thing again. They clarify if the stutter actually makes them say something which

01:09:36.520 they didn't mean to say, which is, by the way, not how the stutter works, then they clarify it

01:09:41.340 the very next sentence. That's not what he did. He went on and started attacking the guy from a

01:09:46.380 different point of view. He didn't say, oh, I didn't mean to say that half of Trump supporters

01:09:52.320 or that all of Trump supporters are garbage. He didn't do that. He just kept going. There was

01:09:57.780 absolutely. And by the way, even when he quote clarified, he said, oh, this is what I meant to

01:10:03.200 say, you know, after the fact in a tweet that he sent out. This is what he didn't say. You

01:10:07.700 misunderstood me because of my stutter. Yeah, this is this also comes after a week after he said we

01:10:13.280 have to lock Trump up. And Joe Biden is the head of the Justice Department of the executive branch of

01:10:18.380 the United States government. And so a thing there is, you know, Lawrence O'Donnell is who he is.

01:10:22.780 Kelly O'Donnell is the president and the acting head of the White House Correspondents

01:10:27.080 Association. So she's in charge of all like the, you know, the White House press briefing people

01:10:33.300 and whatever. She's the person who kind of oversees that whole organization. And so Stu said

01:10:39.360 something that I've been on for a while, that when Kamala, you know, was installed into this

01:10:43.620 nomination, they all view this as a 2016 redo. We have to get this one right. So he's right. We're not

01:10:50.460 going to cover emails. We're not going to cover Doug Emhoff punching a woman in the face in public.

01:10:55.300 We're not going to cover anything that could be the story that leads to Donald Trump being back in

01:11:01.040 the White House, because the one journalist who does that, it becomes a pariah. They become a leper

01:11:05.940 in their own industry. No book deals, no TV hits, no promotions, no, no shows, no anything. And that

01:11:12.380 is once you realize that that's where all of this comes from. And as far as CBS, I hear everyone

01:11:18.140 screaming about bias. And I'm someone who does it all the time. Republicans need to stop going on CBS.

01:11:23.820 They need to make a unified message that says we are not going to engage with this network anymore.

01:11:29.340 This is not a news network. When Stephen Colbert is the flagship personality of CBS News, and this is

01:11:36.260 a guy who hosts a propaganda show for the Democratic Party, they're all just kind of following suite here.

01:11:41.660 And so I guess eventually you have to do something about this. And CBS has been pretty much the most

01:11:48.140 egregious action. But Norah O'Donnell is the person who hit the mute button on J.D. Vance during a

01:11:52.980 presidential debate. Either you guys will learn your lesson or you can just keep engaging in the

01:11:58.500 same kind of behavior and keep screaming about bias. Eventually you have to do something about this.

01:12:04.340 I mean, I have to say, I kind of respect, I kind of respect the people who are on the left who are

01:12:11.820 like, he shouldn't have taken it back. He should have just stuck with it. They are garbage. Like

01:12:16.680 that would be more honest, you know, good luck. They won't. Right. But I mean, the here's that also

01:12:22.940 happened on CNN. Here's Mark Preston. And then I'll show you to Charlemagne. Watch 13.

01:12:26.860 I'm of the mindset that if you say you might as well just embrace it. And I do think that that's

01:12:33.280 a problem for Democrats. If he said, listen, yeah, I do mean all those racist supporters of

01:12:40.400 Donald Trump. Yeah, I do think that they're terrible. I think that that people would look

01:12:46.040 at the Democratic Party a little bit different that the Democratic Party in general doesn't look

01:12:51.280 like they are strong enough and they will always back off of things. And I think that when Jill

01:12:56.720 Biden backs off of saying what he really believes, I don't think that's a good look.

01:13:01.500 I love this guy, Mark Preston. I appreciate him just saying it as as he actually feels it still.

01:13:06.640 They're garbage. We all understood that's what Joe Biden meant. Republicans are garbage.

01:13:12.100 And F him for backing down. It makes the whole party look weak. I mean, it's like like Jerry

01:13:18.060 McGuire, honesty. Thank you. Right. That's how I felt watching that. Yes, we all know that that's

01:13:24.420 actually what he meant. Thank you for just saying it. Yeah, I agree. I mean, come out and say it.

01:13:30.860 I mean, this is explicitly what their closing argument is anyway. Right. If I mean, if Trump

01:13:35.980 is Hitler and half the country is going to vote for Trump, I mean, were there good people voting

01:13:41.920 for Hitler? Like, obviously, they're all terrible. Right. I mean, that is explicit in their argument

01:13:48.640 about what the country is made up of. And, you know, Hillary Clinton obviously took a, you know,

01:13:54.400 took a political beating for her deplorables comment. But what Trump said is true. It wasn't

01:13:59.000 nearly as bad as this. If you go back and listen to the context of Hillary Clinton, she didn't say

01:14:04.260 all Trump supporters were deplorable. She just said half, half of Trump supporters were in the basket

01:14:11.160 of deplorables. It's a much more. I mean, it's still completely wrong and a terrible thing to say

01:14:16.480 about, in this case, a quarter of the country. But it's better than saying half of them are garbage.

01:14:21.740 That's where Biden is. No apostrophe is going to get him out of it. This is the point Charlemagne

01:14:26.500 was making. Charlemagne's really gone over to the TDS world. He was on the show six months ago and he

01:14:31.740 was kind of like, I went on off middle road. He was definitely not a Trump fan, but he didn't sound

01:14:36.440 like this hardcore anti-Trump. But boy, he's there now. Take a listen.

01:14:42.980 I don't understand why he's walking that back because, I mean, based off the examples he gave,

01:14:46.820 like if you are a person who supports those examples that he gave, you are garbage. Maybe

01:14:54.080 I got to hear it again. I thought he was being very specific. I thought he was talking about

01:14:57.260 people who agree with, you know, Tony. That's what he meant, but he didn't get there specifically.

01:15:02.800 He was trying to like, it was a little, not nuanced, but like any gray area with Biden,

01:15:07.140 they're going to try and grab it. And that's what they did.

01:15:08.680 Everything with Biden is gray area.

01:15:10.600 Everything is gray area.

01:15:14.700 That's his point too, right? Like, why wouldn't you embrace it given the overall messaging?

01:15:19.580 All right, let me give you one other thing. Kamala Harris was asked about it. We played her

01:15:23.060 remarks yesterday. She said, I strongly disagree that we should be judging people based on who

01:15:28.760 they vote for. So good. That was the only possible answer.

01:15:32.800 And then she got asked again,

01:15:36.560 my, my audience needs to brace itself. And here's how she answered. Sock 12.

01:15:42.720 Do you sympathize with any voters who do feel offended by or insulted by the garbage comments?

01:15:50.380 I am running for president of the United States. I will be traveling to three states today

01:15:54.940 to do what I have been doing throughout, which is talking with the American people

01:16:00.540 about the fact that first of all, I get it in terms of the concerns they have about challenges

01:16:06.360 like the price of groceries. Second, my highest priority is to address that and to lift them

01:16:13.600 up around their ambitions, their aspirations and their dreams.

01:16:16.800 Oh, there's the line. There's the line.

01:16:20.260 No ambitions, aspirations line.

01:16:22.700 You know what? Every time there's like a, if there are like three college students out there

01:16:26.160 looking for a costume tonight, you could go as that on the ambitions on the aspirations and I'm

01:16:29.920 the dreams. You could have like a little brother following you with it. I'm the work ethic.

01:16:33.240 Like this is all she's running on. Just these words, words that have no actual meaning in terms

01:16:38.860 of policy and what she's actually going to do when she gets in there. What a pivot, right? He says,

01:16:43.600 do you empathize with any of the people who are feeling offended at being called garbage?

01:16:47.500 And she says, what I can tell you is I understand they have, right. I come from a middle class family

01:16:53.700 and they have ambitions and aspirations and dreams, Steven.

01:16:56.240 Yeah. I still maintain Kamala Harris. The person doesn't actually exist. This is a performance by

01:17:03.400 an actress. She pantomimes. She doesn't make eye contact. She's always just kind of doing the

01:17:09.580 same gestures for whatever she does. This is a well orchestrated circus and it's a stage show.

01:17:15.600 And in the end, it might work. They're really trying to Obama eyes this woman by having her hang

01:17:21.060 out, spend the final two weeks on the campaign with Hollywood celebrities who are the last people in

01:17:25.720 this country who don't have to worry about inflation or dreams or aspirations. And so,

01:17:30.980 and this is a big thing going back to like Joe Rogan, which is, you know, and Megan, next time I'm on the

01:17:35.900 show, I am going to demand you come to me and we're going to limit this to like 15 minutes. So I'm just

01:17:40.080 going to let you know this. But it is this sense of entitlement. And this is what I don't get about

01:17:45.780 this campaign is just kind of how it missteps every kind of step of the way and how tone deaf it is.

01:17:51.980 And so she's in a position where she can't distance herself from her boss because her boss decided to

01:17:58.500 put her name right up there next to his with, you know, a little dash in there. And so when he goes

01:18:05.200 off and he does this and she has to spend three days explaining it, her people are just kind of

01:18:10.600 like, can we just dig a hole in the woods in Delaware and get rid of this guy by now? And so she's doing

01:18:17.160 this juggling act. And unfortunately she is not capable of pulling off the rhetorical tricks of

01:18:23.300 somebody like Barack Obama. She's like, it's so dumb. Now this is a no brainer. Yes, I do empathize

01:18:32.260 with them. I can see how that would be really insulting. And again, let me make clear, it's not

01:18:37.440 how I feel. And I think Joe Biden tried to clarify what he was saying, but let me be perfectly clear on

01:18:44.080 how I feel. That's it. You don't have to, when someone says that something that incendiary,

01:18:49.260 not only do you disavow it, you clobber them over the head with a club and then continue disavowing.

01:18:56.080 There's absolutely nothing to be gained from leaving any ambiguity about just how grossed out

01:19:02.580 you are about the comments, but she's scared as always. She's scared and she's supposed to take

01:19:07.220 on Xi Jinping. All right. So the, um, leftist media and their supporters and her supporters,

01:19:14.100 they're also concerned about the Joe Biden comment. It's bad. Trump's not wrong. It is worse

01:19:19.180 than deplorables enter the Lincoln project and the Lincoln project, which is this group of,

01:19:25.000 you know, never Trump or former Republicans who are just the most vicious anti-Trumpers there are now

01:19:29.920 tries to change the narrative to Trump said it to Trump said it too. And, uh, I saw somebody adding

01:19:37.160 me on X yesterday with this is a, somebody from the Washington examiner, like Trump said the whole

01:19:42.540 country is garbage. Hello. He didn't, this is a different controversy, but what Trump said,

01:19:48.380 Venezuela is sending us their prisoners and gang members. Like we're a garbage can like the United

01:19:55.480 States is their garbage can. Not the same. Hello. The Lincoln project refers to a different issue

01:20:02.180 and puts together the following little bit sought nine. And it's not her. It's the people that surround

01:20:11.100 her. They're scum, they're scum, and they want to take down our country. They are absolute garbage.

01:20:19.120 This is from a September rally. So they they're pushing that clip out like Trump called the people

01:20:24.940 around Kamala Harris scum. And by the way, before I get to what he actually said, here's Lawrence

01:20:30.100 O'Donnell again, making the most of it. Uh-huh. Lawrence O'Donnell, who's like very, very clear

01:20:34.180 that we need to make sure that we study the person's actual statement and we not get it wrong. Here he

01:20:38.320 is responding. Two clips. Did Donald Trump mean that everyone who voted for Kamala Harris to be our

01:20:44.380 vice president four years ago is garbage. That's 80 million people. Or did Donald Trump mean the

01:20:51.080 Harris campaign staff? That's hundreds of people. Or the vice president's White House staff? Dozens of

01:20:58.160 people. Or maybe the vice president's family? Did he mean her husband, Doug Emhoff? Donald Trump

01:21:07.880 has never apologized for saying they are absolute garbage.

01:21:13.920 Okay. Here is the actual Trump quote from that September rally.

01:21:22.080 Great patriots have been indicted by Fani and her boyfriend. And it's a disgrace. Hillary Clinton

01:21:30.560 wouldn't acknowledge the election. All of these senators like shifty shift. But if we do it,

01:21:38.420 it's a serious, serious crime. These people are sick. We got to get them the hell out of there.

01:21:43.380 That was a fraud. 818,000 jobs. That's a fraud. If comrade Kamala Harris gets four more years,

01:21:51.660 you will be living a full blown banana republic ruled by an anarchy and a tyranny. You're going

01:21:58.400 to have something. And it's not her. It's the people that surround her. They're scum. They're

01:22:03.640 scum. And they want to take down our country. They are absolute garbage.

01:22:08.380 There you go. So he is talking about Fannie Willis, Adam Schiff, Hillary Clinton,

01:22:18.040 people who have tried to deny his election, impeach him and throw him in prison. He named names,

01:22:26.660 the people around her. He named the names. He never said all of her supporters,

01:22:32.560 her voters or anything close to what Joe Biden said that night, just two nights ago still. But

01:22:40.540 this is I mean, what are you going to do? It's the Lincoln Project. However, this is

01:22:43.700 desperation. That's what we're watching here. I think it is desperation. And I would note to

01:22:48.680 to Lawrence O'Donnell, if he was talking about Doug Emhoff, if you knock up your nanny and slap

01:22:53.840 women in public, then yeah, yeah, kind of. You are garbage. You are scum. So I have no problem with

01:22:58.700 that summary. Yeah. And I think like they're going to try to make this out to be if they lose,

01:23:03.400 they will say, oh, I can't believe that gaffe by Joe Biden at the end. Sure, that might be a factor

01:23:08.580 here. But the bigger gaffe by Joe Biden was the four years of his presidency. The reason why this

01:23:14.260 is close is because they've failed on every major issue that matters to people. You know, you want to

01:23:20.900 talk about a gaffe, go back and look at the people in Afghanistan hanging off the tires of a plane as it

01:23:26.240 goes down the runway. That's a gaffe. A gaffe is 19 percent inflation. A gaffe is people not being

01:23:31.680 able to afford groceries. A gaffe is, you know, millions of people streaming across the border

01:23:37.400 at will and committing crimes on the American people. Those are the things that are making

01:23:42.800 this close enough that Joe Biden being a moron and blurting out what he's been thinking in private

01:23:47.640 all the time in public, that that's what makes that a problem. If they were up by eight or 10 points,

01:23:52.400 this wouldn't be an issue. They failed forever. And that's the real problem here. No, there's there's

01:23:57.920 no spin control and no apostrophe that can save them on this. It's so true, isn't it? It's like you watch

01:24:03.600 a football game and one side is up, you know, 34 to three and they're winning and you can see they're

01:24:10.040 going to win. And when the other side gets close to scoring its second field goal, the winning team

01:24:17.560 will try to stop it. We'll put out the defense. We'll say you're not going to score that point on

01:24:22.920 us. But when that winning team does win, it's it's because they ran they played the game properly

01:24:30.160 from the beginning. It's because they ran up the score properly from the beginning. And right now,

01:24:34.840 what we're seeing with, you know, Team Trump trying to fight back against some of this nonsense is

01:24:38.980 they don't want another field goal, right? They want to keep the her score low. So they will fight

01:24:43.780 her disinformation. But I think if and when she loses, it's going to be because they allowed

01:24:50.240 all those other points to get to 34 before this last week of nits trying to get like a few points

01:24:58.460 on this and a few points on that. Like this race is already won or lost. That's my feeling. It's won

01:25:04.060 or lost right now before the next five days. We're just waiting to find out what the final score is and

01:25:09.820 the voters get to tell us. But these little attempts to like ha ha or oh, even even the Joe

01:25:16.880 Biden garbage remark. I think it's all net net interesting. And we're fighting for these little

01:25:23.080 three pointers. But the huge points have already been scored or not scored. I do want to say

01:25:29.760 something. If you're a kid sitting in an elementary class, the last thing you want to hear your teacher

01:25:33.960 say is enter the Lincoln Project. So along those lines, I think Megan has a point there. I do think

01:25:44.760 that this is just trying to just generate outrage over the over the most littlest things. But the

01:25:48.920 interesting thing about the Puerto Rican thing, and they spent, you know, two weeks on Detroit,

01:25:53.340 you know, Trump basically said Detroit's a hellhole. And then Kamala comes out in the media comes out

01:25:57.540 and says, How dare you say that? And this is kind of the whole virtue of the media and the left,

01:26:02.700 which is they run Detroit into the ground. That's the first American city to declare bankruptcy.

01:26:08.160 It's been single party rule for 70 years. Everybody knows Detroit is kind of a freaking

01:26:13.400 hellhole. But you pointing it out is more offensive than actually turning Detroit, which was a great

01:26:19.460 city, you know, a great iconic city for American motors and architecture and everything. You're not

01:26:25.780 allowed to point out what they actually did to Detroit. It's just offensive that you're observing

01:26:31.560 what they did to Detroit. And this is kind of the whole dynamic of the American media, which is

01:26:36.540 the Republican sees, Republicans pounce, and all of this stuff. So you're not allowed to

01:26:41.620 point out that the Clinton Foundation basically bankrupted the island of Puerto Rico. You're not

01:26:47.340 allowed to point out that, you know, Puerto Rico's electrical grid is something that dates back to

01:26:51.420 the 1800s. It's just offensive when you say it. And so, again, this is the whole dynamic that they're

01:26:57.880 working off of. And it's one that they're going to continue to do here for the next, you know,

01:27:01.840 five or six days. As I said, with polling, they're kind of already signaling what's going to happen

01:27:07.340 here. So like I said, buckle up for election night. This is not something that I'm going to go against

01:27:13.300 the grain with you guys here and say, I don't think that this is something we're going to know

01:27:16.440 about on election night. And like I said, I just I warn that, you know, five or six of these states

01:27:22.320 that Trump needs are all have Democrat governors with Democrat secretary of states. Yeah, it definitely

01:27:27.700 could matter. All right, let's take a quick break and we'll come back and we got to talk about Biden

01:27:31.300 eating the feet of babies. It's a thing. I'm Megan Kelly, host of The Megan Kelly Show on Sirius XM.

01:27:39.400 It's your home for open, honest and provocative conversations with the most interesting and

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01:28:32.060 Offer details apply.

01:28:37.480 I want to start this segment with a story we talked about earlier this week. Tucker Carlson, Ben Shapiro

01:28:42.700 and others, although those two publicly took to X to tell The New York Times to F off for collaborating

01:28:49.980 with the disgusting vile hate group Media Matters to try to censor their shows. They were trying to

01:28:54.720 gin up support or comment for a story, a hit piece that The Times was doing on these conservative

01:29:01.020 commentators and really on YouTube for airing their quote election misinformation. Well, The New York

01:29:08.760 Times is out with their story today. And to YouTube's credit, it is standing firm that these alleged

01:29:14.200 instances of disinformation did not violate their policies. So good for you, YouTube. But look, this

01:29:19.640 is only going to get louder and more problematic. Ben posted on X that The Washington Post is working

01:29:24.780 on their own story now, too. And there's so much uncertainty about what may happen in this political

01:29:29.800 and cultural landscape in 2025 that we're watching it. You know, right now, as you know, you can get

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01:30:29.040 spam you. We don't sell email addresses or any of that. So anyway, uh, it's megynkelly.com and you

01:30:34.420 can sign up there back to stew and steez. Okay. We got to talk about Biden and the babies. Um,

01:30:40.000 it's very weird. I know it's, it's Halloween and I know they're babies and they're adorable. We all feel

01:30:46.100 that way, but when it's somebody else's baby, you shouldn't put your mouth on it. It's kind of,

01:30:52.440 it's kind of a hard and fast rule. It is hard and fast do. Uh, you heard it here first. Here is

01:30:59.800 first where he comes out and he quote eats a baby dressed up as a chicken at a white house. Three

01:31:07.020 babies. It was happening there. They were playing the jaws music out as he ate the baby.

01:31:27.900 The baby doesn't look upset. We should say I was going to ask about that. No, the baby looks fine.

01:31:32.740 I don't know why somebody put the jobs music on was Biden walked over to the baby and pretended to

01:31:36.700 eat its leg. Well, actually did put the leg, the chicken leg, I guess in his mouth. And then

01:31:41.460 there was this one where he ate again, the baby's toes at the same event. Let's look at this is just

01:31:48.040 video. Stand by. Here he goes. She's holding the baby up for him. He grabs the naked foot. He puts the

01:31:57.120 foot in his mouth. He puts the toes in his mouth repeatedly. That's three times in his mouth.

01:32:04.340 She, the mother doesn't seem upset, but she probably walks away with her baby. I'm sorry,

01:32:11.940 but it is a rule, Steven. You don't, you don't put other people's babies in your mouth.

01:32:16.180 Yeah. He's, he's, he's just in, you know, DGOF mode at this point. I get people are freaking out

01:32:25.340 about this, but people have to remember the adrenochrome is the only thing keeping him

01:32:28.680 alive at this point. And so sometimes there's not a baby behind closed doors that is readily

01:32:33.600 available. You just, you have to, you know, you're fading so fast that you just have to just make it

01:32:38.300 look, uh, and steal the essence in front of everybody. So, yeah, I mean, the funniest thing about

01:32:44.760 this, I mean, this is who Joe Biden has always been. It's just kind of like, like, what are you

01:32:48.720 doing, man? And especially around like kids and swearing in ceremonies, we've always kind of seen

01:32:54.740 this, but I guess. And I mean, this is another thing we all remember like Trump putting the candy

01:33:00.840 bar on top of the minion's head. And that was all funny. And then here's Joe Biden, like treating a

01:33:06.480 baby, like it's a, you know, a chicken wing, you know, or whatever. And it's just like, yeah,

01:33:14.160 at this, even at this point, you can tell Democrats are like, yeah, we're, we're, we're ready to be,

01:33:19.300 we're ready to be done with this. Look, I mean, like I said, yeah, I'm sorry. When you get,

01:33:27.260 you get the adrenochrome where you can, I, what I understood was like, especially when they've got

01:33:32.160 like a onesie on and they've got their like adorable thighs, everybody wants to squeeze a baby's thighs,

01:33:36.980 but normally no man would ever do such a thing. Normally another mom would come over and say like,

01:33:43.760 oh, can I? And you'd be like, sure. Or you'd be like, oh, he's not feeling well if he didn't want

01:33:48.400 it. But no one ever. And I've had three children ever put my baby's feet in his mouth. And certainly

01:33:55.220 not the president of the United States still. Yeah. I, to be fair to Biden, I think he may have

01:34:03.140 been a little confused there. He may have thought he was trying out for, is it cake on Netflix? And

01:34:07.640 he thought maybe if he bit into the baby, it would actually be made of cake. So we don't know for

01:34:11.960 sure. Yeah. Yeah. I think there's a, there's this thing too, where it's like, if the, if the good

01:34:18.460 looking guy in the office comes in and says, your dress is nice, you're like, oh, thank you. It's

01:34:23.340 what a nice compliment. But if the creepy guy comes in, you're like calling HR. There's a little bit

01:34:27.780 of that here too. Like, you know, if a normal grandpa comes up to your kid, does something

01:34:32.240 adorable. Oh gosh. Oh yeah. That's so cute. But Joe Biden's foot in his mouth. No, I don't,

01:34:38.560 don't do that. Now we know why he, he thinks he only has six grandkids instead of seven. We know

01:34:45.760 where the seventh one went. I think, I really think it's just further evidence that we've lost

01:34:51.960 Biden. I don't like that's our current president. FYI, he doesn't know what he's doing. He has

01:34:56.600 absolutely no filter for his behavior or his mouth. I am on team Harris in her pleas that he

01:35:03.960 should stay underground. If, you know, if you wanted her to win, of course, that's what she

01:35:08.620 should want and what he should do. But you know, I say, let him, let him go, let him get out there

01:35:15.140 by time with the babies, time with the microphone. Just say what's on your mind, sir. You're the

01:35:20.080 sitting president of the United States. You can do it guys. Thank you. Thank you, Megan.

01:35:26.060 Don't need any babies. Stay safe out there tonight. Yep. Um, and maybe try to keep an eye out for me.

01:35:33.240 Consider my, uh, I think somebody should go like the wife should be the hot garbage and the husband

01:35:38.140 should be the garbage man. It's not too late to get one of those vests like Trump had, uh, all sorts of

01:35:42.020 ideas available to you. Uh, okay. So I want to tell you the audience that tomorrow we're going to have

01:35:46.460 Nicole Shanahan here. Thanks for listening to the Megan Kelly show. No BS, no agenda, and no fear.

01:35:55.360 Thank you.

The Megyn Kelly Show - October 31, 2024

Trump's Garbage Truck Moment, Biden Biting Babies, and Swing State Polls, with Stu Burguiere, Stephen L. Miller, and Spencer Kimball ｜ Ep. 932

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