The Megyn Kelly Show - Trump's Iran Uranium Push, Lindsey Graham at Disney World, and Tiger Woods' Sad DUI, with Professor Pape and Stu Burguiere ｜ Ep. 1284

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00:00:30.600 Welcome to The Megyn Kelly Show, live on Sirius XM Channel 111 every weekday at New East.

00:00:42.320 Hey everyone, I'm Megyn Kelly. Welcome to The Megyn Kelly Show and happy Monday.

00:00:46.940 Yeah, we're there again. We had a ton of news over the weekend related to the war in Iran.

00:00:52.540 President Trump earlier this morning firing off on Truth Social that, quote,

00:00:56.220 great progress has been made to end military operations in Iran with, quote, a new and more

00:01:02.700 reasonable regime. Sounds pretty optimistic. But the president ended his post by declaring that if

00:01:08.840 a deal is not reached and the Strait of Hormuz is not immediately opened, quote, we will conclude 0.73

00:01:14.800 our lovely stay in Iran by blowing up and completely obliterating all of their electric 0.99

00:01:20.200 generating plants, oil wells, and Karg Island, and possibly all desalinization plants, which we have

00:01:27.760 purposefully not yet touched. This will be in retribution, he continues, for our many soldiers

00:01:33.120 and others that Iran has butchered and killed over the old regime's 47-year reign of terror, 0.75

00:01:39.580 unquote. So it really seems like things could go either way in Iran. The president's optimistic

00:01:47.200 and sunny tone has now become par for the course right in the mornings before the markets open.

00:01:54.180 So you have to take it with a grain of salt, especially given the way he ended that post.

00:01:59.860 There were two stories over the weekend about what escalation might look like. The Washington

00:02:05.380 Post reporting that the Pentagon is preparing for weeks of ground operations, but the operation,

00:02:11.460 it writes, would fall short of a full-scale invasion, whatever that means. What is a full-scale

00:02:17.160 invasion versus ground operation involving thousands of our troops. I mean, who gets to

00:02:22.360 decide? Do we need 200,000 for these papers to call it a full scale invasion? What's a full

00:02:29.160 scale invasion? I have no idea. Instead, they write that it would constitute raids by a mixture

00:02:36.240 of special operations forces and conventional infantry troops. How many? We got 50,000 troops

00:02:42.840 over there in the Middle East right now, which is 10,000 more than we normally have.

00:02:46.340 Some 5,000 have arrived just in the past few days. So what kind of numbers are we looking at?

00:02:51.720 I'm not sure. Like if another country sent 5,000 troops to America to come across our borders and

00:02:57.560 start hitting targets, I think we'd consider it an invasion. But, you know, I'm not a military

00:03:03.060 expert. The Wall Street Journal is reporting that President Trump is considering an operation

00:03:08.220 to extract the nearly 1,000 pounds of uranium believed to be in Iran.

00:03:15.140 The Journal reports that Trump has not yet made the decision to do that,

00:03:18.940 but if the president does give the green light,

00:03:21.280 it would be one of the most complex and dangerous missions ever attempted by the U.S. military.

00:03:26.440 Mr. Trump on Two Social Saturday encouraging everyone to watch my new best friend, Mark Levin,

00:03:33.400 or Micro, as I call him, after 120 tweets calling me a neo-Nazi.

00:03:38.220 I finally punched him back.

00:03:39.760 And here's what he had to say.

00:03:43.360 Troops on the ground.

00:03:44.600 He said no troops on the ground.

00:03:47.380 I don't remember that in any campaign speech either.

00:03:50.920 But why would we need troops on the ground?

00:03:53.580 Well, there's a lot of reasons.

00:03:55.300 And we wouldn't need 300,000 of them.

00:03:58.700 It's this uranium, too.

00:04:01.660 We've got to get the uranium.

00:04:03.180 if it cannot be destroyed if it cannot be altered we got to get it for the reason i just said

00:04:12.660 you can make dirty bombs and over time you can still make sophisticated missiles

00:04:18.440 so you need to get to the uranium that's why i i'm reading in the paper we're talking about

00:04:26.720 the 82nd airborne we're talking about these very special forces and the various military services

00:04:31.900 and so forth. He's not talking about sending regular army and infantry in by the hundreds

00:04:38.020 of thousands. Okay. So if it's not hundreds of thousands, then it kind of doesn't count.

00:04:43.900 And now we need to get the uranium. It's a new goal. We're four weeks into this war.

00:04:48.380 Did anybody hear about we're going to go and get vile like containers, scuba size containers of

00:04:54.220 uranium? Was that, did anyone list that? Okay. Like, weren't we told in June that we had destroyed

00:05:00.740 their nuclear capability, obliterated. Didn't we hear that? Now there's untold

00:05:06.260 amounts of uranium in the mountains of Iran that we need super specialist engineers to go in to

00:05:14.760 grab, creating our own airfield with base support. When did that become the goal? Because what we

00:05:22.380 heard from President Trump was, make sure you watch micro tonight on Fox News. And that was

00:05:28.480 his message. We got to get the uranium. That's our that's our new goal. And now the Wall Street

00:05:32.120 Journal the next day drops a piece saying the uranium. It's going to be a daring, exciting

00:05:38.600 mission. I got to get everybody hyped up for it for the next big show that endangers the lives

00:05:45.080 of our troops. It does sound like Mr. Trump may be leaning toward doing some sort of ground

00:05:51.200 operation. But the president, when asked directly about putting boots on the ground last night on

00:05:56.120 Air Force One responded this way. Are you considering still putting boots on the ground

00:06:01.640 and would you do that without going to Congress? I just have lots of alternators. We have

00:06:05.180 tremendous numbers of ships over there. We don't need them long because of the power. Look,

00:06:12.320 I would say we're just like we're ahead of schedule on the ballroom in a much bigger way.

00:06:17.300 We're ahead of schedule. We're weeks ahead of schedule. If you would have said that in three

00:06:23.560 days, we were going to knock out 158 ships, their entire Navy, which we did. We knocked out their

00:06:29.260 entire air force. We knocked out most of their missiles. That's why you see missile attacks,

00:06:34.300 but they're down to sputtering. And we have a group. It's really a new regime. It's a group

00:06:42.260 of people, people that we've never dealt with before that are acting very reasonable. It is

00:06:48.120 Truly regime change.

00:06:50.500 So we've accomplished regime change, but we have to stay there and possibly hit all the desalination plants and the energy plants.

00:06:58.660 Because even though the new group of people pursuant to the regime change is very, very reasonable, we might not reach a deal.

00:07:05.840 We might have to bomb them to smithereens.

00:07:07.660 I mean, President Trump there saying just like the ballroom, we're way ahead of schedule.

00:07:13.160 I mean, like this is talking about American troops dying, like putting their lives at risk.

00:07:18.760 It's not just like the ballroom.

00:07:20.420 Like this is, and it's not just like a fun little excursion into Iran.

00:07:24.880 We've already lost 13 servicemen and women.

00:07:28.360 We had another 25 injured over the weekend when Iran hit the Saudis and our plant, our base there.

00:07:38.740 So we had another 25 American service personnel injured there, many severely, severely injured.

00:07:45.400 What does that mean? Lost limbs, severe head wounds. They don't tell us. That information

00:07:50.340 has been largely censored from the American media. We don't know. We don't believe that we know the

00:07:55.160 full extent of the deaths either. And we don't believe we know the full extent of exactly how

00:07:59.260 all these planes have come down, that we're getting the full story. We're going to unpack

00:08:03.680 the latest with a true expert in the field. Robert Pape is a professor of political science

00:08:08.600 at the University of Chicago.

00:08:10.000 He studies national and international security affairs

00:08:12.580 with a focus on air power, political violence, and terrorism.

00:08:16.020 He's been warning about the so-called escalation trap

00:08:19.220 that he saw President Trump possibly walking right into.

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00:09:20.180 Professor Pape, thank you for joining us.

00:09:22.340 What do you make on the latest?

00:09:23.900 Thank you very much for having me, Megan.

00:09:26.160 You should know I listen to you, my wife listens to you at least once a week for the last three years.

00:09:32.000 Maybe longer than that.

00:09:33.200 And you nobody covered the Trump trials better.

00:09:36.420 Nobody covers our national issues better.

00:09:38.780 And it's just such an honor to speak to your audience.

00:09:41.580 So just for your audience to know, I've been modeling the bombing of Iran for 20 years. 0.96

00:09:48.500 I've taught for the U.S. Air Force.

00:09:50.080 I've studied every air campaign in history.

00:09:52.540 Big book on the subject.

00:09:54.360 Many, many articles.

00:09:56.120 And that's why I laid out before the war started these stages of escalation that we were going to go through.

00:10:02.620 Where stage one would be the smart bombs would hit targets, they would kill leaders, but they would not achieve any meaningful strategic outcome.

00:10:13.760 You wouldn't get the enriched uranium.

00:10:15.720 You wouldn't topple the regime.

00:10:17.840 And that would then lead to stage two, which is where the opponent lashes back.

00:10:22.800 That's the horizontal escalation campaign.

00:10:25.480 And that then leads to them getting Hormuz.

00:10:29.660 And that happened.

00:10:31.560 And again, I'm laying out these stages before the first bomb fell.

00:10:35.200 Now we're at stage three, which is the ground operations are nearing.

00:10:41.640 This is truly the red line, Megan.

00:10:43.920 This is the point where things will start to become truly irreversible.

00:10:48.760 As much as we've been in a trap now, sucking us into this quagmire deeper and deeper,

00:10:56.020 If we cross into stage three, even with limited operations on one of the islands or at the beaches here, this is going to lead to probably months of attrition war, which I'm glad to explain.

00:11:09.940 Now, the rhetoric from President Trump here, he is showing me that we are moving to stage three.

00:11:16.820 This is what this means.

00:11:18.040 He is promising only one more blow. 0.96

00:11:21.620 We're going to knock him out now.

00:11:23.160 We've already got him on the ropes here. And this is the best the best public relations president in my lifetime.

00:11:31.160 I think better than Ronald Reagan. I think better than Barack Obama.

00:11:35.320 Nobody understands the media better here, as you've covered so much on your show here.

00:11:41.960 And so he when I hear what he's talking about, seems like both sides of his mouth.

00:11:46.580 no, not really. He's preparing the public and his 36 to 38 percent of the public who supports this

00:11:53.940 war. Get tight. Get ready to double down. You because that makes sense, because the optimistic

00:12:01.340 part of the message, I think, is speaking to the markets. Trump's been trying to manipulate the

00:12:05.820 market since the beginning of this. And it's no accident. It comes before the markets open. And

00:12:10.120 then you get you know, it's like, OK, we're almost there. They're very reasonable. We have regime

00:12:14.060 change now because we're down to our third level after having killed the first two and no specifics

00:12:18.960 about how they're being more reasonable or how progress is being made. And of course, then you

00:12:22.960 always get the Iranian denial saying we don't know what he's talking about. And then the end of that

00:12:27.660 message was basically threatening World War Three against the Iranians. I mean, if we actually did

00:12:33.480 hit all of their energy plants and all of the desalinization plants or desalination, depending

00:12:38.400 on your, how old you are, basically, is how you refer to that. That's World War III. If Iran then 0.99

00:12:45.220 did that throughout the Arab countries in the Gulf, we'd have mass starvation, we'd have mass 0.99

00:12:50.720 immigration out of those countries and into Europe. I mean, it would just be, 0.90

00:12:55.300 it would completely change the face of the earth. So like, just in a casual, true social,

00:12:59.560 he's gone from new regime, we accomplished it, and we're having great talks, to we are officially

00:13:05.360 going to start World War III. So let me try to help here with, because I can certainly understand,

00:13:11.560 keep in mind, I, for 30 years, I've taught the best pilots in the Air Force. I teach the best

00:13:16.800 students at the University of Chicago. I go and give talks to the public. So I really think I

00:13:22.840 have a sense of where some of the confusion is coming from. If you just listen to the leaders,

00:13:28.240 our leaders' rhetoric, which I know seems to make sense, there's no surprise you will be confused.

00:13:33.820 But there are some very clear indicators, as I've been trying to explain to folks, which is follow the deployments.

00:13:41.220 The deployments are real costs.

00:13:44.400 It costs a billion dollars a day this war.

00:13:47.700 Those deployments here, the Marines, they're really moving.

00:13:51.500 The 82nd Airborne is really moving.

00:13:54.300 Pentagon's talking about another 10,000 coming on top of this.

00:13:58.380 This is real cost, real people moving forward.

00:14:01.720 Now, with Venezuela, for example, this real movement of the Armada near Venezuela started in the fall, not just hitting a few boats, but started to move vast numbers of ships, especially in December and then around Christmas when people weren't paying much attention.

00:14:20.160 And notice that led to actual action. In February, you saw a similar movement here with the air armada essentially coming.

00:14:30.140 And that then led to the air campaign, not just simply one day of strike.

00:14:35.280 So what I believe is follow the deployments. And unless President Trump says, Marines, turn around in the water, take your ships, go back to Japan, go back to Camp Pendleton in California.

00:14:48.560 California, we need to understand phase three is coming and nearing day by day by day.

00:14:56.860 What do you what is phase three? I mean, is it now because I thought it was going to be we're going to take back the Strait of Hormuz and then maybe it was maybe we'll take Karg Island and use that as a bargaining chip to make them do what we want in the Strait of Hormuz, which is open it. 0.68

00:15:11.540 And now it's we got to get the uranium that's sitting in scuba like tanks deep in the mountains of Iran, where we have to make this airfield, according to The Wall Street Journal, and send in engineers as well as all these other troops who you just mentioned to protect them in a highly risky mission.

00:15:30.260 So do you know what the next phase looks like based on what you've heard?

00:15:34.120 I have a pretty good understanding of where we're heading.

00:15:35.680 Again, modeled this for 20 years, taught for the Air Force as we're going through all this and so forth.

00:15:41.720 So it's important.

00:15:42.560 Let's just stop back one second and see.

00:15:44.840 A month ago, Iran had the enriched uranium, and we were panicking because we didn't know where it was going.

00:15:50.940 And I have satellite photographs of where this is dispersing, or at least probably it's dispersing.

00:15:57.080 And that's civilian satellites.

00:15:58.640 They must have much more.

00:15:59.680 So this is probably, Megan, what's underneath a lot of this, and they're being confusing about.

00:16:04.760 But something happened in the last month, which is Iran went from controlling 4% of the world's oil to 20% of the world's oil. 0.85

00:16:11.380 That means over the course of a year, they will make somewhere around $50 to $75 billion money going in Chinese banks, unless we're going to bomb China, not getting that money out.

00:16:23.640 They are becoming the dreaded oil hegemon in the Middle East. 1.00

00:16:29.220 they control more oil than America, where it's 16 percent global production. They're controlling 20

00:16:36.840 percent. And this means geopolitical power over time. So you let this ride.

00:16:44.980 Just to be clear, because they control the Strait of Hormuznets.

00:16:47.560 Yes. It's all about that little artery here. It's like the artery in our throat that controls

00:16:54.960 so much of our lives. That small artery controls 20% of the world's oil, and this is going to

00:17:04.080 change the balance of power in the Middle East over a period of several years. Iran will become 0.99

00:17:10.600 more powerful than Israel. Doesn't seem that way now, but just play this out here. And Iran will 0.99

00:17:16.820 start to then ally with Russia even more. Russia has 11% of the world's oil. So imagine if Russia 0.81

00:17:23.440 and Iran together decide they're taking 33% of the world's oil off the market, and they're going 1.00

00:17:32.160 to give it to one country, China, and nobody else gets it, think about the power they will wield. 0.50

00:17:39.200 This is what's really, again, this was a trap, as I'm saying. We like to believe we have all this

00:17:45.560 choice as America. We can pull ourselves back at any time. What I have been warning, it's really

00:17:51.920 the bombing of Fordow back in June. This was my foreign affairs hour. I was warning, this would

00:17:56.300 suck us down this road. This is the beginning of a trap. And at each stage, it gets harder to get

00:18:04.160 out of. And once we cross into the next phase of ground operations, oh my goodness gracious,

00:18:10.260 Megan. And you've seen already how we reacted when we lost 13 dead in the extraction from

00:18:17.480 Afghanistan and all that motion that was brought out, imagine you have 100 dead paratroopers

00:18:25.160 coming into Khar, or 100 dead Marines going on the beach. That 36% is going to be extremely

00:18:33.180 committed more than ever, because that 36% that supports the war, they're going to think in their

00:18:39.700 minds, they're dying for me. I wanted this, and they don't want to abandon them. This is my lane,

00:18:46.760 i don't just study how to put bomb on target when i am talking advising every west wing of

00:18:52.560 the white house from 2001 to 24 it's about the mix of how military action affects politics in

00:19:00.260 the target and affects politics at home and and when we cross if we cross that red line

00:19:06.240 even though it'll seem very very relatively small numbers will die oh no no no this will create an

00:19:14.180 enormous stickiness. And I don't think we will be able to extract ourselves for many weeks,

00:19:21.040 probably months. Once those ground operations start, they will almost surely expand.

00:19:27.960 So you don't believe it would stay limited to the 2,500 to 5,000 troops we've sent over in the

00:19:32.660 past? Let me just give you an amount. So let's talk, let's take the 82nd Airborne and let's say

00:19:37.280 you're going to take the 1,000 troops and they're going to take an airport. That's what they can

00:19:41.560 take an airport. And when they land, they're going to run out of water, food and ammo in less than a

00:19:48.840 week. So they've lost 100 to take the airport. Are we just going to walk and say, well, good luck

00:19:55.560 with this. See what you can do with those 20,000 Iranians on Karag Island. See, the Iranians, 1.00

00:20:01.140 they may even decide to wait and let them just land at the airport, surround them, and then

00:20:07.440 they're stuck what are they are what is going to happen they will i'm sorry to put so bluntly

00:20:13.340 megan in a week or two those troops either going to surrender or die and the problem is we can't

00:20:20.400 just we're probably already planning they're the beachhead they're the entry point you're unlikely

00:20:27.800 going to take a beat the marines are set up those muse that are moving the 5 000 to take a beach

00:20:33.920 about a mile and a half wide, but not to stay there for weeks and months, unless we're just

00:20:44.960 going to leave them and abandon them to their fate, we will be forced to do what's called

00:20:50.220 mission creep. And this is exactly what happened in Vietnam, Megan. This is how the incremental

00:20:56.320 escalation happened in Vietnam. At every stage, President Johnson, through his folks, was telling

00:21:04.220 the public, the American public, that this would just be one more step here. We're going to do an

00:21:11.140 air campaign starting in March 65. Then the Marines go in starting a little bit later.

00:21:16.240 It's not until July 65 that President Johnson gives the big speech to explain now he's going

00:21:24.820 to have to put in tens of thousands of ground troops into Vietnam. So very similar to what's

00:21:31.600 happening with President Trump. He hasn't given the big speech yet. Neither did Johnson in Vietnam

00:21:37.120 until we were already deep in the quagmire, irreversibly in the quagmire.

00:21:43.920 I can't help thinking about Trump's bankruptcies in real estate. You know, for example, his casino

00:21:49.840 know, in New Jersey, in Atlantic City, where this is what real estate owners and brokers like big

00:21:57.860 dealers like Trump do. They keep throwing good money after bad to try to see if they can get a

00:22:03.260 turnaround. And when it doesn't work, they can declare bankruptcy and get out of the jam. I think

00:22:09.120 it was like Trump had five bankruptcy or something. When I was a young woman and living in New York

00:22:14.420 right after law school, they had the joking like coffee cans out at the coffee kiosks in New York

00:22:22.100 asking for donations to help Trump. It was a joke because he was a very rich man, but he had had all

00:22:25.820 these bankruptcies. You can't pursue that kind of a strategy when it comes to war games because

00:22:32.920 you're talking about American lives and blood and treasure. You can't just keep throwing good

00:22:38.800 troops after good troops who have fallen because we can't afford that kind of a bankruptcy.

00:22:45.620 There's no question that he's being advised of that, right? There's no question he's being told

00:22:49.860 that. But Megan, you have very insightfully, I think more than others, and let me amplify what

00:22:56.120 you've said, given the answer to a question everybody keeps asking, which is how could

00:23:01.500 President Trump do this? They're all asking that. He promised he wouldn't do X, Y, or Z.

00:23:06.340 And you've been focusing on this man for so long.

00:23:10.860 I mean, I'm not surprised you would have some insight and go to the issue.

00:23:15.100 You said bankruptcy.

00:23:16.780 So the way I have been writing about this on the Substack is I've been explaining that

00:23:21.760 President Trump seems to have the gambler's curse.

00:23:25.500 And what do I mean by that?

00:23:26.840 If you go to a casino and you win 20 hands in a row, you think you've cracked the code.

00:23:34.100 You think, my goodness gracious, I've got 20 hands in a row.

00:23:38.740 That's not supposed to happen.

00:23:40.820 That, however, is the curse because that's when the house wins.

00:23:45.200 Once you think you have beaten the house, then when you lose that first hand, you will double down.

00:23:51.940 Oh, I'll just get my winnings back.

00:23:54.140 And you keep doubling down.

00:23:55.940 And then what happens is you lose all of the money you just made on the house.

00:24:00.440 And then you lose your house.

00:24:01.920 You lose everything.

00:24:02.700 And I believe this is what I hear from President Trump. I believe when he talks about Soleimani, he talks, I don't agree with him, Maduro's this big success, but nonetheless, he seems to think that he's won all of these hands.

00:24:15.880 And I think this is what has led him to the illusion of control, I call it, and the illusion that if he just does one more big bet, he's going to get it all back.

00:24:28.680 Well, that is the gambler's curse.

00:24:31.740 And I think that for people who are, again, CEOs, I think, can understand this proclivity.

00:24:37.960 You've been focusing on President Trump, and I know because I've listened to you for years.

00:24:42.080 You study him more than anybody else well.

00:24:44.620 I mean, you're giving all sides. And I think this is no surprise. You've come to this as an insight.

00:24:50.760 And I think it's not just with respect, by the way, President Trump. It's how Bill Clinton got us into Kosovo.

00:24:56.900 There's a whole story there I could lay out. It's how the Germans before World War I, they had all these string of successes.

00:25:03.680 Why would the Japanese think they could attack us at Pearl Harbor and push us back? 0.99

00:25:08.260 All the successes they had in mainland Asia.

00:25:10.600 So, again, I bring a lot of history. I bring a lot of knowledge of what is happening before the wars start. And I think that this helps to explain the gambler's curse is really – it's a mindset. And over and above all of the data, all of the information the president is receiving, I believe that he believes just one more risky bet and he's going to pull this off.

00:25:37.500 it's it by the way uh just for our listening audience our guest today is professor robert

00:25:42.460 pape of the university of chicago political scientist who studies national international

00:25:47.280 security affairs warfare and so on um i believe it's almost worse because not only is president

00:25:53.800 trump at the gambling table thinking that he can't lose he's next to someone who's even worse

00:26:00.260 along the gambler's row than he is.

00:26:03.700 And that man is Bibi Netanyahu,

00:26:05.340 who's like dangling like the TikTok pocket watch,

00:26:09.240 his golden pager operation in Lebanon in front of Trump.

00:26:13.100 And then the way he went into Israel for the 12 day war,

00:26:16.400 sorry, into Iran, Israel did for the 12 day war

00:26:19.040 and they were doing well

00:26:19.780 and they were striking their targets

00:26:21.580 and eliminating certain officials.

00:26:23.880 And Trump was dazzled by that and said, we'll join.

00:26:26.500 Yes. OK, Pete, get the get the B-12 bombers ready. And we went in. And so he's got somebody egging him along like this is going to be easy. Netanyahu tells him the Ayatollah is above ground on this day. We'll wipe him out. It's going to be easy to be like Maduro. You're going to be a hero. And now it's just like just one more thing. Just like it's it won't be 200. They literally the president supporters like Mark Levin are now saying things like we're not talking 200,000 troops.

00:26:53.260 see how they keep moving the goal goalposts like oh but like a hundred thousand where you're trying

00:26:58.740 to get us used to that or 50 000 so that's a win because it's not 200 so let me again i i think

00:27:04.860 you're right on on this psychologically here i think you're really capturing capturing this i

00:27:10.000 would just let me make two points or a point just jumping off of this number one that echo chamber

00:27:15.140 you're describing here of i think this fits this gambler's curse immediately and anybody who's been

00:27:21.960 in the casino knows that's one of the what the house does they send people over try to encourage

00:27:27.360 those whales to just keep betting it down so this is not this is right out of the you know sort of

00:27:33.920 the gamblers cameras but then the other point and you actually made this a little bit earlier and i

00:27:38.600 just want to amplify it which is it's it's worse in another way as well because it's other people's

00:27:45.040 money, other people's lives. You see, in the case of President Trump, it's not his own financial

00:27:54.000 wherewithal that's actually on the table here. It's the country's financial wherewithal,

00:27:59.800 the world's financial wherewithal, and most importantly, our troops' lives. So having

00:28:05.620 taught for the Air Force for years, I still have great relations here all the time. They

00:28:10.640 send me their best and brightest officers to get PhDs. I am really, really, really impressed with

00:28:17.420 how professional they are. If they're given the order, Megan, to go do some of these missions,

00:28:22.920 including, we haven't talked about, going to get the uranium, the enriched uranium,

00:28:28.640 one of the things your audience just may want to know is, remember, we bombed around there.

00:28:34.040 Those drums, those drums aren't things you put in your pocket. These are big, heavy things,

00:28:39.880 and they could be broken and this was something that we had to face with say sending the 82nd

00:28:45.980 airborne into say north korea if we were going to do this there if you go into a situation where

00:28:51.500 those drums are broken that radiation is death not death instantly but ultimately so what we're

00:28:58.840 talking we don't know i'm not telling you we know for sure what's happening with esophon and so

00:29:04.600 forth. But this is not just an excavation mission. You're talking about sending people in and the

00:29:12.160 more they dig, they will then unearth whether or not it's radioactive. By then it's too late. And

00:29:18.900 you say, well, they'll just have radioactive protective gear. They're being shot at by the

00:29:24.920 bad guys here. This is not doing this in downtown Chicago. We're talking about doing this in a war

00:29:31.940 zone of the first order with one million Iranians in arms. So so this this we just need to understand

00:29:38.980 if we give those orders to those troops, I believe they will obey. They will do what the president

00:29:44.680 says. That doesn't mean that this is the wisest move. No. And to me, it's galling because we just

00:29:53.380 had signups reach beyond the bare minimum expectations. Thanks to President Trump winning,

00:30:01.380 thanks to Pete Hegseth taking over at the Department of War.

00:30:04.360 And the message to the troops was, number one, no more woke in the military.

00:30:08.060 They love that. 1.00

00:30:08.920 But number two, no more stupid, pointless Middle East wars. 1.00

00:30:12.360 We're not going to put your lives on the line for a foreign country 1.00

00:30:15.960 or to pursue yet another quagmire in the Middle East.

00:30:19.220 And so all these young guys and gals went and signed up,

00:30:21.920 believing that, believing that, these 18-year-olds.

00:30:25.720 And now some of them are being asked to go over there and serve for what?

00:30:30.120 I mean, truly, you tell me, what is the United States getting out of this?

00:30:34.600 This is really the back to the Vietnam analogy here, which is so disheartening for me to see,

00:30:41.700 because this is what was so disillusioning for our troops. Our troops, they come back from this

00:30:49.820 and society is not happy here. And all they can do is take it out on the troops, right? Maybe

00:30:55.940 the president. They can't take it out on the political class. They take it out on the troops 0.92

00:31:02.080 when this happens. But then the troops themselves, this is what leads to all of those problems we

00:31:09.720 had, the great drug use we had. The disillusionment you are describing, Megan, is not because the

00:31:18.000 people, the troops come in as bad apples. We have the finest. I've seen it up close and personal

00:31:25.220 for years. This is the best of our country. And what's going to happen here is they're going to

00:31:30.720 go through this and the amount of disillusionment. And then also we haven't, you've talked about

00:31:36.960 simply the four sides. The idea here that you're going to have to take, if you're going to take

00:31:42.840 the Strait of Hormuz back, you're going to have to control not just a few sandy beaches. You're

00:31:49.220 going to have to control probably over a hundred mile stretch by 20 miles deep into Iran. That's

00:31:56.180 probably the footprint that would make any minimum sense, the minimum viable footprint here,

00:32:02.940 because otherwise they have, the bad guys have all the missiles, all the drones, and they don't

00:32:07.760 have to fire them all every day. They can just come at it when they want. So you are going to

00:32:12.440 want to control this space. So this is this is unfortunately we've had war games in this. So

00:32:19.280 again, I've been at this for 20 years. We have war games going back to 2004 and five. And you're

00:32:25.760 talking about six divisions. And so I mean, oh, my goodness gracious. But how many is that? How

00:32:31.060 many? Oh, that would be the hundred thousand plus troops just for this footprint. But this is not

00:32:37.200 enough to control all of iran to control iran we didn't have enough troops megan to control iraq

00:32:43.980 we have uh that was 25 million iraqis we currently have about the same number of troops uh that we

00:32:50.420 had at the during the iraq war we have a better technology almost the same number of troops iran

00:32:56.580 is 92 93 million much bigger in geography that nuclear material could be anywhere inside of iran

00:33:05.840 we don't have the troops to occupy Iran. Not really. That's why they're saying with a straight

00:33:13.580 face, you're not going to get the big Iraq. But that doesn't mean we wouldn't be interested in 0.96

00:33:20.060 taking a pretty sizable chunk of Iran's territory. And I've really heard President Trump say this

00:33:26.880 morning he wants the oil. That would be about 100 miles wide, about 10, 20 miles deep. Now you can

00:33:35.280 take the oil fields, not just simply Karg Island. I suspect this is probably the actual plan that's

00:33:43.160 coming. That we'll take the oil fields, not just Karg Island. Walk us through it because you know

00:33:48.300 it so much better than we do. There's the, okay, we're possibly going to go on a search for the

00:33:52.580 uranium at maybe the three plants we bombed, which sounds scary already because who knows what the

00:33:58.240 condition of those sites is and whether it's even safe, whether the uranium has been protected in a

00:34:04.600 way that makes it sound for us to go in there, to your point on the exposure to the radiation.

00:34:10.520 Okay, but we could go in and try to get the uranium. We could try to go retake the Strait

00:34:15.820 of Hormuz, which you were just talking about, where you've got to control not just the actual

00:34:19.440 immediate coastline, but miles to the left and the right so that they can't launch missiles at us,

00:34:25.100 which you said maybe 100,000 troops. Then we're talking about taking Karg Island,

00:34:30.140 which I understand is where they process a lot of their oil, which my understanding is that move would be leverage.

00:34:38.220 You know, you give us back the Strait of Hormuz or the oil supply gets it over here at Karg Island.

00:34:44.600 Correct me if I'm wrong, but are those the three things you're looking at as next escalation?

00:34:49.120 Yeah, that's right. And let me just try to explain here, because I have no like clearance or something.

00:34:54.100 How can Professor Pape say this was such, because I'm looking at equilibrium points in the battle.

00:35:00.840 So there will be, as many people have pointed out, taking CARG, what's the point of taking CARG?

00:35:08.260 The point of taking CARG would only make sense as a beachhead to something more.

00:35:14.220 What's the point of taking some of the small islands around Hormuz or the beaches of a mile area?

00:35:20.120 It's to take more.

00:35:21.460 They would be the entry points to expand.

00:35:24.820 What would you expand?

00:35:26.080 Where would be the next equilibrium point?

00:35:28.840 I'm not saying you would even announce this.

00:35:31.400 This would be an equilibrium point you would look to after three, four months here.

00:35:36.320 And what would that look like?

00:35:37.840 Probably the size I'm describing.

00:35:40.120 You would have the entry points.

00:35:41.720 You would start to look at what would be realistic that you could both think you could hold and also be of some value the oil fields.

00:35:51.480 And President Trump has said for years we made a mistake in not taking the oil from Iraq.

00:35:57.540 Of course, he talked about the oil in Venezuela.

00:35:59.540 We never did get any of the new Venezuelan oil.

00:36:02.620 But this, I wouldn't be at all surprised because it would also be a military equilibrium point.

00:36:07.560 And that is what I'm explaining is that that's what you look at in war.

00:36:13.260 Where are the equilibrium points in the battles that are coming ahead of us?

00:36:19.500 not just what are they saying to the public today about what we're doing tomorrow?

00:36:25.260 Well, is there is there a way that Trump if, you know, since the new talking,

00:36:29.720 I'm literally we're four months, four weeks into this war.

00:36:31.940 And this is the first we've heard about. We're going to go in and just get the uranium.

00:36:35.760 We haven't. That's that is new. It changed from, oh, no, it's about the missiles.

00:36:39.840 We've got to get rid of those missiles. OK, Iran can't have a nuclear weapon.

00:36:43.920 That was stated broadly. We've got to do regime change because the Ayatollah is bad. 0.95

00:36:47.900 It just keeps moving. But now today, thanks to Mark Levin, we're talking about uranium.

00:36:52.480 He magically comes up with this idea the same day the president tells us to watch his show.

00:36:56.420 And then coincidentally, the Wall Street Journal drops a big piece on how that's that's a new possibility.

00:37:02.280 Can we just talk about that one piece, Megan, before we go on?

00:37:05.540 Yeah, yeah. Well, that's my question. Can we is that possible?

00:37:09.880 We just get in, get the uranium and get out and declare it a win?

00:37:12.740 No, it's not possible we do that.

00:37:14.820 but I'd like to just, and I'll explain why not possible, but I also want to just build on

00:37:19.340 something else. I understand that Mark Levin just is now speaking about this, but a month ago in my

00:37:25.120 first live briefing on the Substack, I explained what was the thing sucking us here. It was that

00:37:31.240 enriched uranium. Whether President Trump was talking about this publicly or not, that doesn't

00:37:36.600 really, that's again, not following the actual signal that's occurring here. When we bombed

00:37:41.720 Fordow. We destroyed the industrial part of the enrichment. We did not get the nuclear material,

00:37:48.420 the enriched uranium. In my modeling of the bombing of Fordow for 20 years, that would always be stage

00:37:56.080 one. And that would lead to a bombing campaign a whole year later, a whole year later for regime

00:38:03.160 change. Why would that happen? Because we would panic. What would happen with that enriched

00:38:10.180 uranium. You're right. Netanyahu's probably whispering in Trump's ear or louder than that.

00:38:15.300 They're doing bad things with that enriched uranium. We have some civilian satellite photography

00:38:22.340 of Iranians moving some of what appears to be that enriched uranium in the meantime.

00:38:27.680 This is so it's not it's not just Mark Levin. I just want to point out this is what I think

00:38:32.900 has really been driving the regime change bombing. And now the regime change bombing hasn't

00:38:39.140 produced any real meaningful results. It's made the matter worse. So now is why you're getting

00:38:45.180 the ground options. And I believe that this too is going to be, it would be, it's going to be like

00:38:51.300 the hunt for WMD in Iraq. It would take years to go through all of Iran, all of the mountains, 0.52

00:38:59.340 just take out the maps. You will see this. And this is going to be, that's why just going to

00:39:06.660 Estefan even for a month and possibly... That's one of the three sites. Yes, one of the three

00:39:12.300 sites. Oh my goodness gracious, what you're up against. Because literally, even just 20 pounds

00:39:21.140 of that enriched uranium can be put in a radiological bomb, blown up in Tel Aviv, 0.55

00:39:26.940 and suddenly you have a mass exodus from Tel Aviv. That's how dangerous the situation is.

00:39:33.620 So that that leads my next question, because you say we may be worse off with the new leadership.

00:39:38.300 And I've heard this. I've read this many places because the Ayatollah, though he was a terrible man, had a fatwa against developing the nuclear weapon because he knew the position that that would place Iran in.

00:39:48.320 He knew they'd get bombed, too. And and now they say the fatwa has been lifted.

00:39:52.860 It's his son who's allegedly the new Ayatollah, but no one has seen him and he he may be dead or just severely incapacitated.

00:40:00.140 And now Trump says we're talking to the third level.

00:40:02.840 We don't know whether those people want the nuclear.

00:40:05.740 They want to finish it up and they want to drop it on Israel or somebody else. 0.62

00:40:09.700 But a lot of smart people I've been reading, Professor, have been saying one of the reasons we're in this impossible situation right now is because if we don't get the uranium, let's say Trump just says, you know what, we reopened the Strait of Hormuz.

00:40:22.960 We've cut a deal with the third in line and we're out.

00:40:25.500 that the fear is Israel's actually in more danger now

00:40:29.720 because now the fatwa has been lifted.

00:40:32.620 They still have the uranium.

00:40:34.220 Now they're angry.

00:40:35.740 Now their ayatollah has been killed during Ramadan.

00:40:38.980 A lot of top officials have been.

00:40:40.760 Their sites have been bombed.

00:40:41.860 Their military has been decimated.

00:40:44.000 Now Israel's going to perceive itself as in even more danger.

00:40:47.400 And Israel may be the first to launch a nuke on Iran. 0.68

00:40:51.700 Now, more reasonably fearing its own nuclear annihilation so that the fear is that the United States cannot leave because Israel would feel more exposed than ever.

00:41:03.980 And there may be a reason now we have to stay to prevent that.

00:41:07.620 How do you like that?

00:41:08.160 So let me just talk right about the Israeli tech nuke thing, because that's coming up quite a bit, Megan.

00:41:13.560 And then we can talk about some of the other pieces.

00:41:15.480 So if Israel uses nuclear weapon, my job is is not to look at this morally. 0.87

00:41:20.700 It's to look at this strategically.

00:41:23.340 If Israel were to use those tactical nuclear weapons in Iran, the radiation is going to blow back over the GCC.

00:41:32.200 That's going to be over Saudi Arabia.

00:41:34.420 That's going to be over Qatar. 0.90

00:41:36.000 That's going to be over the UAE and probably quite a distance more.

00:41:41.620 This will be Chernobyl times 100. 0.78

00:41:44.460 This will be the actual radiation clouds that really are troublesome and killed.

00:41:50.820 And this is why I think that it's highly unlikely that Israel is going to do this.

00:41:57.480 Because if Israel were to do this, and again, my job is to actually think about these difficult scenarios, 0.96

00:42:03.820 then Israel now has 7 million Jews surrounded by 500 million Muslims.

00:42:08.740 And I understand Israel thinks that all 500 don't like them and hate them.

00:42:12.820 this is what could turn hundreds of millions into willing to die to get rid of israel right now 0.99

00:42:20.540 that's not the case you've got what 20 000 hamas fighters willing to die up against israel maybe

00:42:26.740 another 20 000 hezbollah so this is as bad as everybody says no this can get a lot worse for 0.64

00:42:34.320 israel and if israel were to use those nuclear weapons here just think about the amount of

00:42:39.540 damage that's going to do to Muslims and Israel say, well, they all hate us anyway, right? No, 0.84

00:42:46.360 no, not the way they will. And this is not in Israel's interest to even think about. And they're 0.81

00:42:53.480 not going to use nuclear weapons to protect themselves in a ring around Tel Aviv. So this

00:42:58.940 is just not, I can't tell you what Netanyahu's going to do. What I can tell you is what the

00:43:04.720 consequences would be. So what if Trump calls you up today and says, my poll numbers are going

00:43:12.200 through the floor. My approval rating is now the lowest it's ever been. I've lost massive support,

00:43:18.420 double digit support from men, young people, Hispanics, all the people who put me into office

00:43:25.220 and I need to turn this around. I got to get out of Iran. It's going on too long. This other gambler 0.60

00:43:30.220 next to me wants to stay at the table all night, how do I do it? How do I extricate us from this

00:43:35.880 ASAP? I will say three things to President Trump right now. Number one, stop putting sucker deals

00:43:42.520 on the table. You're not going to sucker them again. They've been suckered now for a long

00:43:47.180 period of time. They're not taking the sucker bites. It's not going to happen. I would say, 0.78

00:43:51.460 number two, you have to put something on the table that they would find valuable for their security.

00:43:57.800 They're not going to just give up 20% of the world's oil because you've bluffed them in some way.

00:44:04.080 Number three, what would be meaningful at this point would be an enforceable military containment of Israel. 0.81

00:44:13.560 It's not just, you have to remember, it's not just Trump who's attacking Iran.

00:44:18.920 Israel, and Israel may be doing the most to push the attacks on Iran.

00:44:22.900 So unless you have a military containment of Israel, we're not having nothing to talk about. 0.52

00:44:29.540 That's why these talks are going nowhere.

00:44:31.720 What would be an enforceable ban?

00:44:33.900 This would be, and this will be the big problem politically, is he's probably going to have to cut off aid to Israel, military and economic, for, say, a year, the rest of his presidency, if Israel breaks the deal.

00:44:50.260 If Israel breaks the deal, President Trump is going to have to enforce that.

00:44:54.620 And Iran, if I were Iran and playing their hand, I would demand that go through a vote of Congress. 0.96

00:45:00.100 I'm not going to just trust anybody here.

00:45:02.440 I mean, just think about it.

00:45:03.500 So this is the horns of the dilemma President Trump is in.

00:45:07.180 I was giving different advice back on days two, three afterwards.

00:45:11.160 There was a little bit better.

00:45:12.060 That's before Iran grabbed the Strait of Hormuz right out from under our nose. 0.97

00:45:16.620 Then it was an easier deal.

00:45:18.200 Here, the deal is much harder. And now you can see, Megan, why President Trump is really on the horns of a dilemma. And the political problems here, he is now sitting right at the cusp of where Lyndon Johnson sat exactly at this point, almost April 1st, 1968.

00:45:40.420 And his presidency, President Trump's presidency, will be irreversibly impacted by his decisions going forward.

00:45:50.000 I would advise still going with the military containment of Israel option. 0.98

00:45:54.800 That way he would have a chance to recover his presidency.

00:45:58.840 If he goes forward with the ground operation, I believe his presidency will be lost in an unrecoverable way.

00:46:05.520 oh vietnam war eight years sent 543 000 troops that was the maximum troop level 58 000 u.s

00:46:16.180 troops were killed 153 000 were wounded that is not what anybody wants and that's not what we

00:46:23.340 wanted in vietnam either we we know but president johnson did not go into that war in 64 did not

00:46:30.140 start the bombing campaign saying he's going to kill 58,000 dead Americans. He did not go into

00:46:37.240 that war thinking he was sinking his presidency and becoming the worst president, even worse than

00:46:44.160 Jimmy Carter, is Lyndon Johnson. And this is the reason. This is what I would say to President

00:46:49.560 Trump. And I really believe the best option here is military containment of Israel in an enforceable 0.96

00:46:57.400 way. Great to speak with you, Professor. Thank you so much for your time and expertise today.

00:47:02.740 Thank you. It's really quite an honor to speak with you. And of course, you're an important

00:47:06.260 audience. So thank you so much, Megan, for this. And love to your wife, too.

00:47:10.580 I'll tell her. She'll hear it.

00:47:14.160 Wow. That was very sobering, very sobering, guys. It's, you know, it's funny because

00:47:21.880 some people online who are very, very pro this war will say, oh, you know, you're no longer a

00:47:26.400 Trump supporter because your question, no, it's exactly the opposite. It's because I do support

00:47:31.040 President Trump and his actual agenda that I want this to stop. I want him to focus on what he ran

00:47:36.540 on. I want him to continue the incredibly important work he's begun, like the deportations.

00:47:43.640 Another young girl was just killed by another illegal in Illinois after Sheridan Gorman's

00:47:48.740 death last week. I mean, it's like not a day goes by without another American being killed by an 0.95

00:47:54.640 illegal that was let in under Joe Biden. President Trump has yeoman's work to do in getting them out.

00:48:01.000 That that should be number one. Frankly, if we're just talking about helping people and

00:48:05.880 electoral prospects, the economy has to be one, two, three, four and five for President Trump

00:48:12.600 right now. It has to be all the numbers. That's what the people care about. All of the polls,

00:48:19.000 every poll says that they don't care about iran the polls have made that really clear

00:48:26.080 you know it's it's interesting like we we we look we can see just in terms of the number

00:48:31.140 of downloads on the show and and the our audience that we've heard from you we know you're not

00:48:35.860 interested in the iran story no one says our podcast is still at the very very top of the

00:48:39.480 charts in fact it's higher than it it often sometimes is um so we're still very at the top

00:48:45.260 But no one is getting huge numbers on the Iran story, not Fox, the New York Post, which is, you know, owned by Rupert, who's one of the biggest pushers of this war.

00:48:54.660 And he owns the journal.

00:48:55.720 He owns Fox.

00:48:56.380 They're all changing their headline, right, because the people don't want to hear about this.

00:49:00.260 The polls show they don't want this and they don't want to hear about this.

00:49:04.560 By the way, we are interested in what you do want to talk about.

00:49:06.900 So you can email us, Megan, at MeganKelley.com.

00:49:11.380 And I feel the same.

00:49:12.620 I feel the same.

00:49:13.160 I don't want to talk about Iran.

00:49:14.720 What do I want to spend my day talking and thinking about Iran at all?

00:49:18.940 I want to spend my day thinking about America and our own problems, not the ones that we're creating.

00:49:25.160 Huge ones that we're creating for ourselves by the minute.

00:49:28.860 So I beg the president to get out, get out, get out sooner rather than later because it doesn't get easier from here.

00:49:35.100 Talk to Professor Pape. Talk to the experts about the easiest, cleanest exit plan and a way of distancing ourselves from Netanyahu, who to me seems like a bloodthirsty warmonger.

00:49:48.080 He's a Lindsey Graham twin. We have to worry about our own problems here.

00:49:54.920 Number one, the economy, and a close second would be the deportation so that we can live in peace.

00:50:00.200 Up next to discuss it all, Stu Bergeer.

00:50:02.840 You've been hearing me talk a lot about Pure Talk lately.

00:50:06.260 Pure Talk is veteran-led, so helping veterans is their North Star.

00:50:10.360 They have donated over half a million bucks to America's Warrior Partnership,

00:50:14.320 a fantastic organization that's on the front lines of preventing veteran suicide.

00:50:19.060 And Pure Talk's creating American jobs with a U.S.-only workforce.

00:50:23.080 Yes, it'd be a lot cheaper to send jobs overseas like other companies do,

00:50:26.420 but they're committed to delivering the best experience possible for their customers.

00:50:31.160 And Pure Talk's service, I mean, they give you the same towers, the same network,

00:50:34.880 same 5G coverage as one of the big guys, but for a fraction of the price.

00:50:39.820 Pure Talk supports veterans every single day and creates American jobs.

00:50:43.720 If you want to give it a shot, dial pound 250 and say Megan Kelly to switch to Pure Talk.

00:50:49.400 That's pound 250, 250, and say, Megyn Kelly, to switch to Pure Talk, America's wireless company, Pure Talk. 0.99

00:51:03.380 Joining me now, Stu Bergeer.

00:51:05.360 He's the host of two, count them, two new shows launching next month, Predictable with Stu.

00:51:11.260 find out more at predictableshow.com and the relaunched stew and dave do america on blaze tv

00:51:20.700 stew welcome back great to see you don't forget about dave don't forget about dave he's very

00:51:25.780 very important thanks so much making appreciate it yeah it's great to see you um all right let's

00:51:31.280 kick it off here lindsey graham is one of the people responsible for getting us into this war 1.00

00:51:35.880 constantly in Trump's ear with predictions of grandeur and zero downside. He's frothing at

00:51:44.480 the mouth right now at the thought of thousands of our soldiers going over there. All the reports

00:51:48.540 on X, by the way, including citing Israeli sources, are that Israel's not prepared to put

00:51:53.640 one soldier's boots on the ground. It'll be all America, just American troops going 0.96

00:51:59.620 boots on the ground in Iran. Great. And so what is Lindsey Graham doing to support those troops 1.00

00:52:06.900 and the families who are preparing to put their lives on the line? He's at Disney World.

00:52:13.820 A single man with no wife or children or grandchildren has now been spotted at Disney

00:52:21.100 in multiple photos. Here's one where he's pouring, I don't know, coffee, water.

00:52:25.300 and there's another where he is walking around with a bubble wand stew a bubble wand how old is

00:52:33.640 lindsey graham 70 look at him there he is in the middle of disney with a bubble wand i'm sorry but 0.98

00:52:42.980 motherfucker look at him he he's pushing to take all of our troops and put them in danger so he 0.98

00:52:51.800 can get off because he hasn't been getting off at least not with a woman that's obvious for his 1.00

00:52:56.940 life and now he goes to fucking disney world while they deploy to iran and he's blowing bubbles 0.98

00:53:05.260 what i it's is this like this seems like some sort of weird fever dream i'm in is this real 0.96

00:53:12.420 are we is there really a dave am i dreaming this too i will say there's no easing into it

00:53:19.300 on a Megyn Kelly interview.

00:53:20.640 I'm learning today.

00:53:24.120 It's incredible.

00:53:26.280 I will say,

00:53:26.800 I recognize that restaurant.

00:53:29.000 That's the Goofy restaurant.

00:53:30.660 I took my kids there in 2019

00:53:33.120 when they were like six.

00:53:35.700 That's the Goofy restaurant

00:53:37.220 where you can go get the buffet

00:53:38.260 and have ice cream for breakfast.

00:53:39.920 I'm glad he's having a good time at Disney.

00:53:43.280 That is an amazing situation,

00:53:45.600 especially concerning

00:53:46.940 where we are in this timeline.

00:53:49.300 You know, I think you would agree with me, Megan, that if I could give President Trump one little tiny piece of advice when it comes to Lindsey Graham is to adopt the stance that I've taken for many, many years, which is ignore everything Lindsey Graham says.

00:54:03.120 If he's saying it, don't listen to it, because Lindsey Graham sucks for a million different reasons, and he has been doing this for a really long time.

00:54:13.140 I mean, he was essentially a one-issue candidate.

00:54:15.060 I would remind President Trump running against him for the president of the United States.

00:54:21.520 This is a guy who should not be, should not have a high level of influence over anybody.

00:54:28.120 Perhaps maybe Pluto or Daisy Duck.

00:54:32.820 I don't know one of them, but it's a very bizarre time to go to Disneyland.

00:54:37.640 Yeah.

00:54:38.720 They're too innocent to spend any time with Lindsey Graham.

00:54:41.200 He gave this statement to TMZ.

00:54:42.940 I was invited to a meeting in South Florida on Friday with Trump official Steve Whitcoff

00:54:47.020 to talk about the possibility of normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel.

00:54:51.120 I went to Orlando to meet friends after.

00:54:53.920 I'm already back in South Carolina. 1.00

00:54:55.540 Who gives a shit? 0.99

00:54:56.260 No one cares. 1.00

00:54:57.120 You went to Disney.

00:54:58.160 Our troops are about to deploy and are deploying, are deploying right now because you pushed

00:55:03.200 our president into it.

00:55:04.540 President Trump has agency, not excusing him.

00:55:07.220 But let's be honest, Lindsey Graham pushed this more than anyone.

00:55:10.120 and the nerve to then go blow bubbles at Disney

00:55:15.040 while our troops are endangering themselves

00:55:17.600 because he wanted them to. 0.99

00:55:19.000 I just find this so heartless, so fucking tone deaf. 1.00

00:55:24.020 Like, look at all the shit Ted Cruz got when he, 1.00

00:55:29.120 where did he go on vacation? 1.00

00:55:30.400 Cancun.

00:55:30.760 Because they were getting like, yeah, Cancun.

00:55:33.380 They were having, what were they having in Texas?

00:55:35.860 It was like a very bad hurricane or it was a snowstorm.

00:55:39.240 It was an ice storm storm in Texas. And he got all sorts of blowback because he was in Cancun vacationing with his family.

00:55:46.300 I actually kind of felt like they need their vacations. He's not like, I get it.

00:55:51.440 This this is beyond like this. This never should have happened.

00:55:56.260 I I'm just angry about his influence over President Trump.

00:55:59.360 And I'm angry that I have to look at pictures of him with his bubble wand.

00:56:02.560 And I'm angry. I have to pretend he's not gay when it's very clear he is. 1.00

00:56:07.340 Why doesn't he admit it by this point in his life? 0.99

00:56:09.380 In my humble opinion, he's an insult to the gays. 0.98

00:56:13.060 Gays tend to be fabulous. 0.98

00:56:14.220 Why is he more fabulous? 0.56

00:56:16.200 I don't understand how he didn't get the memo.

00:56:18.980 And I'm sick and tired of seeing this man's influence over our national politics and our

00:56:23.100 troops.

00:56:24.400 Continuing onward, I ended my discussion with Professor Pape by discussing some of the numbers,

00:56:30.760 you know, as we see poll after poll after poll.

00:56:33.020 I'm going to show you one today.

00:56:33.880 But I mean, it goes Fox News poll, Quinnipiac, Reuters poll.

00:56:38.840 All of them are right in line with this.

00:56:40.220 OK, so it's not a one off.

00:56:41.600 It's this is a trend.

00:56:43.060 Today's is from the National University of Massachusetts Amherst poll.

00:56:47.700 One thousand U.S. adults.

00:56:50.040 And it's it's gives President Trump the lowest approval rating of his second term.

00:56:55.680 Thirty three percent overall disapproved.

00:56:57.700 Sixty two percent at the RCP Real Clear Politics list of polls.

00:57:02.700 no poll has had Trump at 33% since one in 2017, Quinnipiac back then. So this says he's at 33%

00:57:12.220 according to this poll. In April of last year, he was at 44% in this poll. Inflation, 24% approve,

00:57:23.040 71% disapprove. Jobs, 30% approve, 61% disapprove. Immigration, 35% approve, 60% disapprove.

00:57:30.500 Tariffs, 28 percent approved, 64 percent disapprove.

00:57:35.740 The Trump handling of Iran, the war with Iran, 29 percent approve, 63 percent disapprove.

00:57:44.440 So we've got a 29 percent approval rating on launching the war and on how he's handling it.

00:57:52.820 And I like and by the way, they re asked the Reuters question from a week ago.

00:57:57.620 Should we send ground troops in?

00:58:00.500 And 8% say yes, 67% say hell no.

00:58:07.380 8% support ground troops, which reportedly we're getting ready to do.

00:58:12.220 Now, look, the audience knows I'm not in favor of this war.

00:58:14.860 Fewer and fewer Americans are.

00:58:16.060 The majority's with me.

00:58:18.940 But put that to the side, because you don't need to have any feelings about the Iran war

00:58:23.120 to answer whether this is working out politically for President Trump and Republicans to.

00:58:29.760 It most certainly is not. And you're 100% right in your analysis on that. It doesn't matter what you think about the war. If you want to take a step back from it, you might think, and by the way, this does happen. Sometimes presidents look at polls and see 25, 20% approval rating, and they feel that the issue is important enough for them to take a stand.

00:58:48.760 we at times i think uh look for leaders that do unpopular things at a popular times so he shouldn't

00:58:55.940 be making his decisions solely based on polls he should be considering however what the ramifications

00:59:01.240 are of what of this of this current path if it continues to go this direction certainly if we go

00:59:06.900 into the the area of ground troops the american people don't want it they don't want anything to

00:59:11.100 do with it they are already frustrated with the state of affairs right now and history is aligned

00:59:17.500 against President Trump having success in this midterm.

00:59:21.120 And we've seen this over and over and over again.

00:59:22.820 I think it's 9% of the time House seats are won with a president in this midterm.

00:59:28.480 9% is what our baseline is making going in.

00:59:31.620 We should expect to lose the House almost every single time unless things are going

00:59:36.900 thrillingly well.

00:59:38.480 And that is not what we're looking at.

00:59:40.340 And when you look at those polls, I'm glad you went through that entire kind of breadth

00:59:44.660 and brought the whole color because it's not just about Iran.

00:59:47.220 I mean, you saw Iran. Iran's in the category of many of the other things that that Americans care about when it comes to approval rating, that sort of high 20s area, which is catastrophic, honestly.

01:00:00.380 Now, that's the worst poll you probably will find. A lot of them, though, as you point out, are in the general vicinity of those.

01:00:06.660 And the craziest and scariest part of it, Megan, is a lot of the things you highlighted are the the the legs of the stool that got Donald Trump elected.

01:00:15.360 right economy jobs uh the border immigration even immigration which is you know i would look at it

01:00:22.820 as a person who's an immigration uh hawk when it comes to illegal immigration and say i think a lot

01:00:28.300 of the things he's done have been good i think some of the treatment of his policies has been a

01:00:32.880 little unfair uh but that doesn't really matter when it comes down to voting time it matters

01:00:37.460 who's going to actually see this the way that they do and if we have 28 approval rating of

01:00:41.740 immigration and 30 percent jobs and 29 percent iran that is a uh a when you throw that on top

01:00:47.740 of the history that we're already looking at and a three-seat majority in the house i was already

01:00:53.080 expecting bad things in november and you're starting to look at what is a catastrophic

01:00:58.760 possibility becoming you know something that's a little bit more realistic um the the folks behind

01:01:06.260 this poll saying exactly what you just said. What's surprising and of likely grave concern

01:01:11.660 to the White House are the dips in support from the very groups that helped Trump take back the

01:01:15.600 presidency in 2024. Among men, working class Americans and African-Americans, Trump's approval

01:01:21.440 ratings have dropped by close to 20 points since April of last year. Similar drops in support are

01:01:26.420 also seen among moderates, down 18 points in independents, down 13. Another poll shows it

01:01:32.760 far worse with independents, key constituencies in Trump's victory and in the upcoming midterm

01:01:37.620 election. Now, I want you to know this. We we are getting more and more talk about Republicans

01:01:44.560 losing the Senate in November. That was supposed to be out of the question. And the problem is,

01:01:52.160 even if they take a bath on more seats than expected, but don't lose control in the Senate,

01:01:56.960 You know, say they lose a couple but maintain a slight majority or at least they keep it tied.

01:02:02.900 Right now they have 53.

01:02:04.320 If it's tied, J.D. Vance cast the deciding vote, so they're still OK.

01:02:08.820 But there's serious talk about whether they're going to lose, whether they're going to lose outright control of the Senate.

01:02:15.000 The map for Republicans in 28 gets far worse.

01:02:18.840 They have to defend more seats then than they have to defend in these midterms.

01:02:23.700 And truly, now you're edging up the Democrats' margin even higher, right?

01:02:28.480 To the point where, God forbid, they get a 60-vote majority, the Democrats, in 28.

01:02:32.940 I mean, that'll be a—it'll be a landslide victory at the White House, the Senate, the House.

01:02:38.600 Like, we cannot have that.

01:02:40.200 We cannot have—this is not fun to talk about.

01:02:43.420 But there's time.

01:02:45.260 There's time.

01:02:46.060 I mean, here's the other thing I wanted to point out to you, Stu.

01:02:48.420 Just today, as we talk about the cost of this award, it's about a billion dollars a day.

01:02:51.780 it hits on Axios, that Republicans are considering reductions in federal health spending to help pay

01:02:58.940 for a budget bill containing as much as $200 billion to fund the war in Iran and immigration

01:03:03.240 enforcement. We are going to take from domestic policies like health care to pay for a war in 0.99

01:03:12.100 Iran that is costing us a billion dollars a day at a time when he has record low approval ratings

01:03:18.140 and especially on the economy, like in people's pocketbooks and wallets is where they most need

01:03:25.240 the help, Stu, not to have money being sent over to the Middle East. Yeah. And the optics of this

01:03:33.320 are absolutely horrible. Right. I mean, we've seen that happen before previous presidents,

01:03:38.940 you know, President Bush in his second term as a guy that the Iraq war kind of got on the ugly

01:03:43.800 side of that, you know, you started seeing him, he's leaving office with approval ratings in the

01:03:48.620 high 20s. It was catastrophic for Republicans. It brought in the Obama era, massive majorities,

01:03:55.760 a 60 seat majority in the Senate. It can get really ugly, really fast. Americans do not want

01:04:02.180 this. One of the things they like about Donald Trump is it seems his approach to foreign conflict

01:04:08.840 has been relatively limited and particularly limited in scope.

01:04:13.980 He's been involved in things.

01:04:15.140 I think he was maybe unfairly seen as an isolationist completely.

01:04:22.000 I don't think that's ever what he was.

01:04:24.320 But usually he tried to hold back and keep these excursions a little bit limited in scope.

01:04:34.140 And there's still possibility for that here.

01:04:37.640 As we pointed out, Iran has a voice in that, unfortunately, and they might not want it 1.00

01:04:43.800 to be all that limited.

01:04:44.880 They might want to continue down these roads.

01:04:47.840 But one of the shows I do is about prediction markets, predictable.

01:04:52.320 And when we first started putting the project together, one of the things we were looking

01:04:56.760 for are values in these markets when it comes to elections.

01:05:00.900 It's one of the things I've been doing for years and years.

01:05:03.320 and when the election was happening back in november you could get the democrats to win

01:05:09.700 the house at about 56 percent chance 56 to 58 percent chance that's now up over 85 percent

01:05:17.080 uh the senate which was you know in the 70s for the republicans to hold it is now basically a

01:05:24.260 50 50 matter these are people putting their money where their mouth is these aren't polls

01:05:28.520 these isn't even polls where people call you up and you might say well i want the republicans to

01:05:32.440 win so i'll say that now these are people putting their money where their mouths are people running

01:05:37.000 their own polls millions and millions of dollars going back and forth to try to predict what this

01:05:40.980 outcome is and now i i don't think i've gone through every seat i don't think it's a 50 50

01:05:46.720 perspective i'm a little bit more bullish on republicans on that but if what you're talking

01:05:52.080 about comes true and we start adopting policies that have eight percent approval ratings i can

01:05:58.920 assure you that's probably not even 50% chance for Republicans to hold the Senate. And as you

01:06:05.040 point out, it gets much uglier next time. Republicans had a legitimate chance in 2024

01:06:11.620 to have a Republican president, a Republican House, and a 60-seat majority. But because of

01:06:17.660 what happened in 2022, and they blew some seats then, they lost that opportunity going into 2024.

01:06:23.520 They have a smaller majority than they should have in 2026, where we are today, and they face a potential loss and then maybe a 60 seat majority the other way in 2028.

01:06:34.640 So this is vitally important to all of our futures.

01:06:38.360 If President Trump can get out of this war, get out of it, I don't care how he has to do it.

01:06:42.320 Just get out, get out, save face however we need to get out, come back home and spend the next seven months focused like a laser on making people's pocketbook issues better.

01:06:52.380 he actually can turn this around. He's a great messenger. He's charming. When he goes out on

01:06:57.560 the road, he's funny. People like him when they get exposed to him. I mean, not the TDS people,

01:07:01.860 but like normal people can be charmed by Trump. And if they see him working very, very hard

01:07:06.800 to improve their lives, yes, health care too, health care, groceries, gas prices,

01:07:15.000 we have a shot at stemming the losses at least. Just today, there was a report,

01:07:19.960 South Korea's president said the following. I'm quoting the world is in turmoil over the energy

01:07:25.940 crisis. The situation is so serious that it has even kept me up at night. The immediate problem

01:07:32.640 is grave enough, but the outlook ahead seems even more unstable. The situation is worse than

01:07:38.660 expected. Many predicting that this energy crisis that's already hitting some people who are

01:07:44.440 directly dependent on their oil from the Strait of Hormuz and more get their oil from the Middle

01:07:50.440 East, you know, than people like us are already feeling the pain, but that it's coming our way

01:07:54.760 because the energy market is the energy market. It's all connected. And there's a delay in it

01:08:00.040 hitting the United States. There's some prediction that we'll start feeling the pinch come summer

01:08:04.760 when we already feel the pinch because Americans are driving cross country and stuff like,

01:08:09.240 so, all right, all of this is too depressing to really handle. I can't like, I'm not even going

01:08:13.300 to I'm not even going to talk to you about that polymarket prediction that now Gavin Newsom would

01:08:18.000 beat J.D. Vance in a head to head because that seems like an op to me. That just doesn't seem

01:08:22.300 like even remotely possible. But I could be wrong. It's just like crazy. But we need to

01:08:27.980 we need to turn this aircraft carrier around like yesterday, yesterday. And if anybody can do it,

01:08:34.440 it's President Trump. Please do, sir. Please do. It may take king like powers, which brings me to

01:08:40.680 this weekend's protests. Okay. The no Kings people are back at it. Did you know that? I actually

01:08:46.260 didn't even know that until we saw the snippets coming in from their latest no Kings protest,

01:08:52.780 which by the way, they also held in London, London, England.

01:09:00.440 You see the problem. Okay. But here in America, we genuinely don't like Kings and

01:09:09.040 it just brings out the truly crazy people. I'm going to start with there's some wheelchair 1.00

01:09:15.360 bound woman who has a fake Trump and J.D. Vance dancing near her. Let's watch this lady. Okay. 1.00

01:09:23.020 So I'm not sure what's going on with this woman in a wheelchair. Is that a shirt? Is that morbid 1.00

01:09:28.280 obesity or like a prosthetic? I'm not sure, but there's a fake J.D. Vance and a fake Trump on his

01:09:34.400 knees that she's dragging on a leash what is she how there's a man with a tuba that i forgot to

01:09:41.040 mention um so you tell me stew where this is taking us what their point is i have to give

01:09:52.020 credit to wheelie and artist on instagram which is where we got that from so thank you wheelie

01:09:57.900 um nothing says vote democrat like the morbidly obese wheelchair-bound person dragging trump by 0.81

01:10:05.560 a train a chain is that where is that who we just were looking at was that wheelie the artist i'm

01:10:11.220 very i hope not i don't no it's not no okay really is not this person good to hear good to hear because

01:10:17.280 that would be an interesting nickname for that particular individual i don't know we will see

01:10:20.920 um it's an interesting uh thing here megan and and i we should take this a little bit and drag

01:10:26.520 this away from the despair we've started with so far because there are a lot of me take me away

01:10:32.260 yes let me do it let me give you an opportunity to at least take a nice little journey it's not

01:10:38.220 quite disneyland with a bubble wand but it's it's something here which is there's a couple things

01:10:45.540 really working in donald trump's uh favor and that you know in republican favors and conservatives

01:10:51.000 favor here. Number one, there's still a long time before this election, and we have absolutely no

01:10:57.700 attention span whatsoever. So if what Donald Trump talked about coming into this effort was a four

01:11:05.300 to six week situation, if he's able to achieve something like that and prices come back down,

01:11:11.400 there's still plenty of time for us to be focused on something completely different before these

01:11:15.860 elections occur another thing that is a sounds like a negative but is actually a benefit is we

01:11:22.260 should be scared it is good for us to be terrified right now as to what we're going to see in

01:11:29.720 november because then we can prepare for it it's not a last minute october surprise where we think

01:11:34.860 we're going to win and all the stuff we're going to lose we should be every single effort that we

01:11:39.080 have every giant billionaire donor on the conservative side should be thinking about

01:11:43.280 how to place their money and efforts right now, including our own efforts to get out there and

01:11:48.040 change this. Because if we don't, if we take it easy this time, if we all kind of sit around and

01:11:53.680 think about, oh, well, everything's going to be fine. Donald Trump pulls these things out in the

01:11:57.560 end or whatever. We're in real trouble. So the fact that we're getting an alert this far out

01:12:01.900 in advance before we're even picking candidates in some of these races is a really good thing.

01:12:06.940 And we can look at that as a positive. And finally, the biggest thing that Donald Trump

01:12:11.840 has going for him is he has the most pathetic enemies politically that is possible these people 0.98

01:12:19.140 the people you just showed is who we're going against and the american people can't stand those 0.97

01:12:25.320 people every time they're faced with the opportunity between going their way or any other

01:12:30.840 way they choose the other direction so if they keep having these no kings we are it is he is 0.86

01:12:37.900 blessed with the the just the most ridiculous enemies possible and if if we can just see them 0.77

01:12:42.900 continue to go down this road the more no kings rallies the better because if that is the face 0.64

01:12:49.140 of what the opposition is we've got a shot here a real possibility of we're still in it

01:12:55.200 we're still in this thing i want to say this uh joe kent tweeted this out and i totally agree with

01:13:00.980 him saying tell president trump tell your congressional representative and your senators

01:13:05.340 that you don't support American boots on the ground in Iran.

01:13:08.860 Stop him from making that catastrophic mistake.

01:13:11.880 He tweeted out the White House comment line,

01:13:13.500 which is 202-456-1111, 202-456-1111.

01:13:18.280 The congressional switchboard, 202-224-3121, 224-3121.

01:13:24.080 Just tell them we don't support boots on the ground.

01:13:26.640 Please stand up, use your voice against it,

01:13:28.760 and stop that piece of this at least

01:13:31.680 so that we are not going to be governed 0.91

01:13:33.980 by the morbidly obese, wheelchair-bound person dragging Trump along by a chain. 0.83

01:13:39.400 It's a no.

01:13:40.220 Or, God forbid, this person here.

01:13:43.160 Get ready.

01:13:45.240 Stop 32.

01:13:46.920 And I will add a special, a special thank you,

01:13:51.540 and a special acknowledgement that we will never leave the side of our Somali Minnesotans.

01:14:01.240 Oh, we know.

01:14:02.400 Here's our pledge to you, our Somali Minnesotans, your great-grandchildren will still be here 0.96

01:14:12.160 when that orange clown is in the dustbin of history. 0.97

01:14:17.100 You will be here. 0.93

01:14:21.020 Awesome.

01:14:22.240 Awesome.

01:14:23.100 Don't worry.

01:14:24.220 The Somalis are doing great in Minnesota.

01:14:26.740 So Tim Walsh is feeling really good.

01:14:28.280 And by the way, Tim Walls could throw his hat in the ring and be one of the ones vying for that 28 nomination on Team Blue.

01:14:35.400 If we're lucky.

01:14:36.660 Yes, if we're blessed, he will run.

01:14:39.160 I will say I would vote fat person in wheelchair a thousand times in a row before I went with Tim Walls. 0.71

01:14:46.200 Did you see his shirt?

01:14:47.600 He's back to his, like, flannel, I'm just one of you, you know, normal Midwesterner type routine.

01:14:54.240 By the way, one other thing.

01:14:56.380 He was at the No Kings rally.

01:14:58.140 The GOP official account tweeted out a picture of him with the caption, no queens.

01:15:03.800 Oh, no.

01:15:06.440 Sorry.

01:15:07.140 Sorry.

01:15:08.540 Actual gays and lesbians don't mind these jokes. 0.96

01:15:11.060 They know they come from a good place, at least from us.

01:15:13.440 No, it's true.

01:15:14.300 And Tim, look, Tim doesn't help himself the way he acts.

01:15:18.000 You know, it's so funny that he was brought into our lives as the focus of he was redefining

01:15:23.880 a manliness which was you know that was what they told us you know here you have an idea what a man

01:15:30.960 is and then this guy's redefining it which isn't the compliment you think it is uh frankly i think

01:15:37.200 i think that's actually a criticism uh i could be wrong on that yes uh but yeah he is brought into

01:15:43.700 our lives to redefine manhood nobody bought it nobody believes this guy and that was honestly

01:15:49.860 he was so bad on the surface. We didn't spend any of the time in the campaign focusing on what a

01:15:56.200 terrible job he was doing as governor of the state. I know, I think it was Jim Garrity wrote

01:16:00.520 about this a decent amount at the time. And I remember like, wait a minute, this guy's really

01:16:05.360 corrupt. He's let a lot of terrible things happen inside the state. And no one paid attention to it

01:16:11.920 because it was just so easy. It was like, well, it doesn't matter if he's a good governor or not,

01:16:15.720 look at him. But now that he's no longer running for national office, it's a little bit easier to

01:16:21.080 focus on what he's doing and what he's saying. And the fact that we are still hearing from this guy,

01:16:25.940 I mean, thank God he's dropped out of the reelection push in Minnesota. Thank God for

01:16:31.240 the people in Minnesota. But I can't get rid of this guy fast enough. Please get him out of our

01:16:37.140 political lives. I want him off of TV, out of my face as soon as possible. Yeah, I know.

01:16:44.680 Another person you could put on that list is Jimmy Kimmel.

01:16:47.180 He showed up at a No Kings rally out in California where he ran into my adopted home states, one of the U.S. senators, Chris Murphy.

01:16:55.980 What is Chris Murphy doing at a No Kings protest in California?

01:16:59.160 Get back to Connecticut and do your job.

01:17:00.760 We have our own problems. 0.99

01:17:01.960 You shouldn't be out in California marching with the losers out there. 0.99

01:17:04.940 We got plenty of losers of our own right here who need your help. 0.99

01:17:07.680 All right. 0.99

01:17:08.920 But there they are together.

01:17:10.140 Jimmy Kimmel went.

01:17:10.860 He brought his whole family, his dad, too.

01:17:14.780 They were holding signs.

01:17:16.400 I mean, it's just like, OK, so he's got his kids at an anti-ice and no kings protest.

01:17:23.280 Great.

01:17:24.820 Then, speaking of the rich and famous who want to pretend they're not, here's Bruce Springsteen from Minneapolis on Saturday in SOT 34.

01:17:35.460 Well, this past winter, federal troops brought death and terror to the streets of Minneapolis.

01:17:44.120 Well, they picked the wrong city.

01:17:49.700 The power and the solidarity of the people of Minneapolis and of Minnesota was an inspiration to the entire country.

01:17:57.760 Your strength and your commitment told us that this is still America.

01:18:05.460 And for those who gave their lives, Renee Good, mother of three, brutally murdered, Alex

01:18:12.260 Pretty, VA nurse, executed by ICE, shot in the back and left to die in the street without

01:18:19.560 even the decency of our lawless government investigating their deaths.

01:18:28.080 Their bravery, their sacrifice, and their names will not be forgotten.

01:18:35.460 I love how he even puts on the fake Midwestern accent.

01:18:45.600 Minnesota, he's from New Jersey.

01:18:48.120 Okay, that's not how New Jerseyans sound or talk. 1.00

01:18:52.180 Kamala Harris, why do all these Dems use their fake fucking accents 1.00

01:18:56.340 when they go out to various neighborhoods to try to sound like they're from the hood? 1.00

01:19:00.180 You're not. You're not from Minnesota, so stop with the long O's 1.00

01:19:04.600 because you're from new jersey uh okay it's very annoying and why is bruce springsteen

01:19:10.180 the same person as megan rapinoe and tilda swanson explain that to me how did that happen

01:19:15.500 i don't know that's a great point i have no idea how that occurred some scientist needs to look

01:19:20.640 into that i need a full study um i think uh i don't i'm not a bruce springsteen fan i will say

01:19:27.360 i didn't i never got into him never liked his music all i hear when he's speaking right there

01:19:31.460 Is that just abortion of a version of Santa Claus is coming to town that I have to come into town that I have to hear 500 times every Christmas? 0.57

01:19:38.520 So, you know, he is he's just awful in every way.

01:19:43.320 And he does this every single time an issue comes out, like as if he would have cared for a second about Minnesota.

01:19:49.200 This is just, you know, him.

01:19:51.320 He's like worrying about investigation.

01:19:52.900 But we all saw it on video.

01:19:53.920 It's the only reason even know it occurred.

01:19:56.180 Where is his song for Sheridan Gorman?

01:19:58.800 where is that song who by the way is from a lot closer to home his real home than anybody in

01:20:07.800 Minneapolis is he has time to go out there and and pay homage to Alex Preddy and Renee Good two

01:20:14.620 agitators who inserted themselves willingly into a dangerous situation they never should have been 0.96

01:20:20.220 involved in to begin with no fucking words for Sheridan Gorman an 18 year old innocent murdered 0.99

01:20:26.860 by ICE last Thursday. The insensitivity of it, like the elite snobbery of it. How dare he? How 0.99

01:20:35.840 dare he forget her in the name of two agitators as he condemns the very men and women who are

01:20:41.400 trying to keep the next Sheridan Gorman safe from illegals? Yeah. Murdered by illegal immigrants. 1.00

01:20:46.960 I mean, it is a they don't there's no there's no very barely any coverage of it, frankly,

01:20:51.640 let alone songs you know he he did in a whole original song which thank by the way thank you

01:20:56.740 megan for not playing his actual horrible song that he was about to launch into there about

01:21:01.860 minneapolis i am i i can't i can't thank you enough i've done everything i could to not hear 0.54

01:21:06.220 anything from that stupid song i think it was he did a streets of philadelphia thing back in the 0.92

01:21:10.960 day it was like a parody of his own song i mean that's what you're really desperate as an artist 0.97

01:21:14.920 when you get to that point uh but he it's the way i won't watch a minute of the uh willie wonka and

01:21:21.020 the chocolate factory revamp with johnny depp not one minute i do everything my power to avoid it

01:21:25.600 keep going yes no no i i will say i do have a bone to pick with you though and and you know i

01:21:30.140 typically agree with the things that you're saying and i you know occasionally people i

01:21:33.920 don't know if you've noticed this online megan occasionally people push back against you and i

01:21:37.160 hate to be i hate to grow to join that chorus everyone agrees not everyone not everyone i hate

01:21:42.580 to join the chorus here but i grew up in connecticut i was born in new york but i grew up in

01:21:47.300 spent my whole life there tons of relatives that are still there how dare you try to bring chris

01:21:53.160 murphy back to that state one day earlier than he please stay in california forever chris you're

01:22:00.480 doing a great job out there don't come back don't please don't solve any problems uh for my for my

01:22:07.340 family members that are living in the state don't try to solve any of their problems you will only

01:22:12.360 make it worse stay in california join lindsey graham at disneyland i'm fine with it stay there

01:22:17.260 forever it'll be great when you're right you're right stew and you are right i see the argument

01:22:22.720 i i am less wrong now than i was 10 minutes ago thank you thank you for that you're right

01:22:27.060 yeah bruce springsteen is insufferable they and and jimmy kimmel and i'm sorry to do this one to

01:22:32.500 you too but here's robert de niro trump has to be stopped and that's what no kings is all about 0.98

01:22:41.080 Because he can't do all the fucked up things that he's been doing without the pollution of Congress and the goons in his administration. 0.92

01:22:50.960 They're bound to him by fear of losing their own jobs, their own power. 0.99

01:22:56.340 It's diabolical.

01:22:58.000 How can this be happening?

01:23:00.120 Look at the power of the No Kings National Uprising.

01:23:05.400 Look at the power of the No Kings National Uprising.

01:23:09.620 afraid of trump please no they should be more afraid of us yeah right because we still believe

01:23:18.460 in the core american values of justice equality decency and kindness because we're going from

01:23:26.040 the streets to the ballot box and because we all deserve a country with no kings no trump

01:23:32.900 hmm okay kareem jean pierre he had to read every word of that and still couldn't spit it out isn't

01:23:40.280 he like one of our most storied actors he's able to memorize a few lines or at least used to be

01:23:45.900 able to you can't even spit it out and stew robert de niro would like to lecture us on kindness 0.99

01:23:53.460 after all the interviews videos he's put out i like to punch him in the fucking face i like a 1.00

01:24:01.340 fucking he he has become so angry and so nasty because of his tds and thinks he can get away 1.00

01:24:11.600 with this by reading by i mean truly just by reading which he couldn't even spit spit out 0.99

01:24:15.860 it was it's kind of sad really it's really really sad and he's been sad for a long time he tried

01:24:21.280 remember he did the almost the same type of thing right before the election he came out into this

01:24:25.720 big press conference and he was around you know all of them yeah yeah 16 20 24 yeah yeah that's

01:24:31.940 right he's been in every single one of them he's a dedicated i suppose you could say that for him

01:24:35.860 uh yeah he's he's just absolutely terrible and and you know he threw in that line too about uh

01:24:41.560 well they should be afraid of us i mean there's some reason to believe that the donors to these

01:24:46.820 organizations keep trying to assassinate the president so at some level i can understand

01:24:51.500 his threat of being afraid i i get why they might be uh but i i don't see how this again helps the

01:24:59.480 left they've tried this in 16 in 20 24 go back to every election that i can remember megan there's 0.99

01:25:04.940 always some left-wing celebrity of the day that's going to be the difference between what happens 0.86

01:25:09.640 the election and and what the american people actually want that there's you know taylor swift

01:25:14.280 is going to come out in and endorse someone we're told and all these things are always preached to

01:25:18.660 At least there might be some influence from someone like Taylor Swift or someone like Robert De Niro.

01:25:23.380 There's absolutely none. 1.00

01:25:25.260 He's pathetic. 1.00

01:25:26.380 He comes out every single time and does the same thing. 1.00

01:25:29.200 And it never moves the needle.

01:25:31.560 OK, boomer. 0.99

01:25:32.820 I miss the Michael Corleone version of him from Godfather 2.

01:25:36.960 The rent stays like before.

01:25:39.240 He had some benevolence in that role.

01:25:42.360 He had controlled anger when it was proper. 0.83

01:25:45.800 You know, he was a killer in the making.

01:25:47.760 but he did it you know quietly and only when like there was some sort of ethical like justification

01:25:53.720 for it in mob world here he's just unspooled he's out of control it's like all you can think is like

01:26:00.320 he's gonna need the adult diaper change asap because you can see he's like crapping his pants

01:26:06.360 he's so angry with his tds he can't see straight with it and now it's you know come to like he's

01:26:12.420 gotta read uh insert anger you know like it's i don't like to see it you hate to see it as the

01:26:19.800 kids say all right um wait i want to play this quickly this is back to bruce springsteen wait

01:26:24.380 let me just show you bruce springsteen tilda and rapino together oh my god i feel like you

01:26:33.380 might have to censor one of those images actually it feels like his womanly nature is coming out a

01:26:39.720 little bit bursting from the seams uh there do we do we need to play the mary f kill game here 1.00

01:26:46.940 okay i'm gonna make you do it absolutely not are you kidding me yes i'm making you i can do the

01:26:54.660 first one which is kill and that's myself that's how that game ends oh god all right wait let's 0.76

01:27:06.360 Play Sot 35, Bruce Springsteen and Jane Fonda.

01:27:10.520 Guess where we are.

01:27:12.680 Guess who's here.

01:27:13.880 No kings.

01:27:15.740 Do it.

01:27:17.580 Do what?

01:27:19.180 Do it.

01:27:20.500 Well, stop the king that we don't have.

01:27:23.380 It's important to make sure we don't have the king that we don't currently have.

01:27:29.180 Oh, it's just delightful.

01:27:30.440 They make it easy.

01:27:32.260 This is exactly, you know, Megan, what we were talking about when it comes to this election.

01:27:36.360 All we can do is screw it up.

01:27:38.420 They hand these elections to us every single time by associating with the most annoying people in our society.

01:27:45.860 All we have to do is avoid being completely terrible and we should win every time.

01:27:50.340 Yet we somehow figure out a way to screw that up quite often.

01:27:54.060 OK, so that's do it. Do it.

01:27:56.500 That's what Jane Fonda gave us her call to arms. 0.90

01:27:58.380 And look who responded. Take a look at these clowns. 0.99

01:28:01.280 We believe that we are participating in an active political theater, not direct action or change. 0.99

01:28:07.260 Active clowns.

01:28:08.200 There isn't really anything that's done by this. 0.99

01:28:11.060 We are clowns at the circus, led by police, people to lead you and guide you like cows. 0.85

01:28:17.080 What are we protesting? 0.94

01:28:18.280 What are we rioting?

01:28:19.580 We're not.

01:28:20.080 Nothing is getting done.

01:28:21.600 Yeah.

01:28:23.780 Agreed.

01:28:24.240 I was going to say, I think we might agree with him.

01:28:25.760 Yeah.

01:28:26.080 Is he on our side?

01:28:27.540 He might be.

01:28:28.440 I mean, he might not be, but he might, he might actually in reality be on our side and have no

01:28:33.480 awareness of that particular fact. Like inadvertently. Yeah. All right. Well,

01:28:37.560 we'll keep an eye out for him at the next one because he's the closest thing we got to truth.

01:28:41.160 Quick break back on the other side. Among other things, we got to talk about Tiger.

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01:29:53.380 Drew Bregheer is back with me now. Stu, we got to talk about Tiger Woods. What a travesty

01:29:59.700 what's going on with him. It's a pattern as far as I'm concerned. Like if you, you're a dad,

01:30:07.420 if you wanted to give your, ensure that your kids had problems later, you would abuse them. I mean,

01:30:15.280 That would be the number one way. Abuse your wife. That'd be a great way to in front of them 1.00

01:30:20.420 or not just period. Um, sign them up for modeling or acting and pray they make it big. That would 0.59

01:30:31.160 be another great way or push them to beyond the bounds of reason in some sort of early profession,

01:30:40.280 including sports. And I'm sorry, I think it's great to ride your kids a bit, push them to

01:30:47.840 meet what potential they can at that age, at these tender ages, though I also think just

01:30:53.720 letting them have fun and be kids is great and really the way. And I think we've celebrated him

01:30:59.700 and how hard his dad pushed him for many years now, Tiger's 50, and his accomplishments on the

01:31:05.880 golf course are literally like unmatched by, I think anyone, I don't know golf that well, but

01:31:11.240 if not anyone, then by virtually no one. Um, and I think what's happening with Tiger right now as

01:31:18.860 a result of all of that, yes, I think it's drugs as a result of multiple injuries from car crashes,

01:31:26.300 many of which have been impaired, right? So it's like, what came first, the injuries or the drugs?

01:31:31.280 I don't know. But I think childhood was not an option for Tiger Woods. He didn't really have

01:31:38.340 one. He spent every waking minute on the golf course being pushed by his dad. Then he made it

01:31:43.460 huge at a young age, had that thing of early, overwhelming fame, and then had physical ailments,

01:31:52.200 which will come if you are that big an athlete, usually. It's rare that they don't. And turned

01:31:58.820 to narcotics, quite clearly. And now, not only is he endangering himself, I mean, he almost had to

01:32:04.980 have his leg amputated in 2021 after a car crash then. Almost amputated. He said it was 50-50.

01:32:12.620 Could have gone either way at the time. But is endangering others repeatedly. He's endangering

01:32:17.860 all the children in the neighborhood, which is his neighborhood repeatedly, driving these cars

01:32:24.040 impaired. It's been, what, two or three incidents now and doesn't seem to get it, no matter how

01:32:31.540 many stints in rehab, brushes with death, possible ends to his career come flashing before his very

01:32:39.380 eyes. So it's not to say never put your kids in sports, never drive them to be great athletes,

01:32:44.800 but I just think any parent who's really hoping for their kid to make it big as a star, as a star

01:32:51.320 at a young age is asking for this,

01:32:54.760 what you see on your screen right here,

01:32:57.600 a total car crash,

01:33:00.040 actually and metaphorically

01:33:02.160 in the not too distant future,

01:33:04.560 as soon as they come of age, basically.

01:33:06.180 And in his case, ever since.

01:33:07.820 Your thoughts?

01:33:08.960 Well, this is how you build the best driver

01:33:10.840 and the worst driver simultaneously in America.

01:33:14.380 This is Tiger Woods,

01:33:15.740 and you're right in that driving your kids that way

01:33:20.680 to try to be he's sort of you know you sort of put all their life's value into a sport and like

01:33:27.880 it's easy to see with with Tiger Woods how that's gone wrong because you layered on a bunch of

01:33:33.400 mistakes he made on his own obviously substances and injuries and and all of those things but

01:33:38.940 for every Tiger Woods I mean Tiger Woods at least had immeasurable success right when it comes to

01:33:45.280 this goal you know i live in texas megan and my my both of my kids are active in in sports they're

01:33:51.960 both very talented um you know i see a lot of the parents though that are constantly focused

01:33:58.560 basically on sports only as as their future um and are making all sorts of decisions you know

01:34:05.160 on their education and we know where they live and and we know how they're spending all their

01:34:09.120 time based on this idea that maybe they're they've got the next tiger woods on their hands and look

01:34:13.060 Maybe they do. It's possible, you know, really successful athletes, you know, can can can be created at some level.

01:34:21.020 I mean, obviously, natural talent has to be part of it. But working hard is a great thing.

01:34:24.800 And I think there's a ton of great lessons that come out of sports, right?

01:34:27.880 Working hard, understanding your your role in a in a in a team framework is really, really important.

01:34:35.820 Understanding failure is a massive part of that and being able to deal with it.

01:34:39.680 I think sports teaches that to a kid maybe better than anything else can, but you can go overboard.

01:34:46.080 And you have to realize that not only, especially now, there are tons and tons and tons of people trying to do the same thing you're doing.

01:34:57.680 You know, I remember when I grew up with a friend of mine in high school who wound up playing in the major leagues, my friend Jason, great dude.

01:35:05.880 And he wound up getting into the majors and he played for, you know, five or six years in the majors.

01:35:11.900 He, though, was also over my house playing wiffle ball a lot.

01:35:16.840 And we were hanging out and playing basketball at the local gym and pickup games.

01:35:20.940 He wasn't even he wasn't even specialized really in one sport.

01:35:24.800 He was playing all sorts of sports and he had a good normal life with great parents and a great family around him.

01:35:30.260 And, you know, you know, I'm sure he was doing, you know, some private lessons and stuff.

01:35:33.920 he was a great athlete but like it wasn't his all of his worth right like he was he he that's not

01:35:40.620 how it was now i you know i'm in this world at some level like my kids are you know very good

01:35:44.600 baseball player i have a daughter who's very good gymnast like but they you know they're they do

01:35:48.900 private lessons but i don't push them like that i do see tons of other parents though that are

01:35:54.180 much more intense than i am sometimes with kids that are far behind where my kids are when it

01:36:00.400 comes to ability some are even ahead but it's like if you have that really young ones yeah really

01:36:05.780 young i mean the private lessons start super duper young now uh where i don't remember that at all

01:36:11.200 when i was a kid so i mean look there's a lot of good things that can come out of sports frankly

01:36:15.680 with a lot of the other things that kids could be doing as far as being in front of screens i don't

01:36:19.780 think it's the biggest worry in our world uh but it is a concern and you can put yourself in that

01:36:25.620 You need to have a childhood.

01:36:26.500 Yeah, you have to have a childhood and you have to teach them that their life's worth

01:36:31.180 is not tied directly to the outcomes of where they go in their sport.

01:36:36.300 When you're totally focused on that.

01:36:37.940 And their value as a human.

01:36:38.900 And their value as a human, right?

01:36:39.900 Like their whole, they look at their lives and it's like, well, if I fail at this, where

01:36:43.260 do I go?

01:36:44.180 You know, when you leave sports professionally, it's a difficult transition for a lot of people

01:36:48.280 because they've spent their entire lives up to 30, 35 years old with one goal in mind.

01:36:53.900 And then all of a sudden they can't do those things anymore and they have to figure out how to make it in real life.

01:36:59.920 And that is really difficult for people to transition to.

01:37:03.320 So, you know, there's the balance here.

01:37:04.760 There are a lot of great things that come out of sports.

01:37:06.340 I'm not going to deny that.

01:37:07.520 You know, I love sports, but wow, you can go the wrong direction and you hate to see it with Tiger Woods.

01:37:12.340 I mean, he seemed to be a guy who really had it going the right way, who was handling it really well early on, was able to kind of keep a normal head on his shoulders.

01:37:21.700 I have seen this.

01:37:23.000 like I'm not an athlete, but I have known many athletes over my time. And this is not unusual,

01:37:30.900 this pattern where you hold it together, you achieve all these accolades, you know, you're a

01:37:35.700 star. And then something happens like it does to all of us. All of us is called life, you know,

01:37:41.660 where something bad happens to you or in your family or to your career or, you know, in sports,

01:37:47.040 It can be up and down on the golf course or the basketball court, whatever, or an injury, and you don't have the foundation to handle it.

01:37:58.880 You don't have the ego.

01:38:01.840 You know, you don't have the id that's been developed for you, apart from this sport or this thing, this one thing you do, to be able to handle a massive setback either in that lane or in a related lane.

01:38:14.920 You just don't, you didn't build up the resilience and the muscles over the years, and you didn't have a family that insisted on throwing you in the deep end so that you would learn how to handle this stuff.

01:38:25.520 And I, so to me, it's no surprise at all that Tiger, as he got, all right, so we have a minute left on Siri.

01:38:31.920 Can you hold over for just a little, Stu, because I do want to continue this discussion.

01:38:34.980 Yeah, sure.

01:38:35.900 Okay, good.

01:38:36.460 Well, we'll keep it going on just for a little bit on the back end, because I think what's happening with Tiger is happening like more and more.

01:38:43.280 We just covered Britney Spears' DUI the other day, right?

01:38:49.620 When Justin Timberlake, we just saw the video of him completely fall down drunk doing his sobriety test from the Hamptons two summers ago.

01:38:58.520 I think it was two summers ago or last summer.

01:39:00.780 These people have it all.

01:39:02.120 What they didn't have was a stable childhood where they were allowed to be kids and not focus on their singing, their dancing, or their swinging of the golf club.

01:39:13.280 And now it's coming back to haunt them all. And this piece of the story is too rarely

01:39:17.720 examined for its links to the first piece. I'm going to play you a Tiger Woods soundbite

01:39:24.980 from when he was younger when we come back. Quick break, and then we're back with Stu

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01:40:31.280 Hey, everyone. It's me, Megan Kelly. I've got some exciting news. I now have my very own channel

01:40:37.280 on Sirius XM.

01:40:38.820 It's called the

01:40:39.280 Megyn Kelly Channel

01:40:40.060 and it is where

01:40:40.720 you will hear the truth

01:40:41.780 unfiltered

01:40:42.440 with no agenda

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01:40:46.080 you're going to hear

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01:40:47.220 Mark Halperin,

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01:40:55.240 no BS news

01:40:56.260 only on the

01:40:57.240 Megyn Kelly Channel,

01:40:58.260 Sirius XM 111

01:40:59.540 and on the

01:40:59.940 Sirius XM app.

01:41:05.660 Duper Gear is back

01:41:06.700 with me now.

01:41:07.140 his new show, Predictable with Stu, launches next month. Go to predictableshow.com to get

01:41:12.420 more info now. For the listening audience just joining us, we are discussing the latest

01:41:17.400 Tiger Woods tragedy. That's what it is. It's a tragedy. He was said to have been frustrated

01:41:25.900 and depressed, according to the New York Post, about his state of health when late last week

01:41:32.060 he got involved in an accident in which his car rolled over as he almost collided with another

01:41:41.360 car on the road down near his home in Jupiter, Florida. He had lumbar disc replacement surgery

01:41:48.840 in October. By the way, miraculously, neither Tiger nor the driver of the other car nor anyone

01:41:53.560 else was hurt in this latest incident. But in October, he had lumbar disc replacement surgery.

01:41:59.300 He also had a surgery for a ruptured left Achilles last March.

01:42:05.820 He has had multiple car accidents now.

01:42:10.620 The one that we all sort of heard about originally was May of 2017.

01:42:18.220 He was arrested in Jupiter, Florida.

01:42:20.520 Cops found him asleep at the wheel of a running car, which had two flat tires and damage to its rear and front bumper.

01:42:29.020 He said at the time that he had a bad mixture of painkillers in him and pleaded guilty to reckless driving.

01:42:35.760 He was convicted of DUI.

01:42:37.680 He tested positive for five drugs, five in his system.

01:42:42.600 Then in 2021, four years later, he was in a one-car crash outside of Los Angeles.

01:42:50.060 His SUV rolled several times.

01:42:52.140 He was trapped inside.

01:42:54.180 He had several open fractures to his lower leg.

01:42:57.300 He was driving between 84 and 87 miles per hour.

01:43:01.340 There was a real question about whether he was going to survive.

01:43:04.540 His injuries were so bad and the car crash was so catastrophic.

01:43:08.340 And that was the reason, reportedly, they said no blood alcohol content test was administered

01:43:17.260 to him at that time, Stu, that it felt indecent to push.

01:43:22.820 in the very good article that's on Yahoo News right now about Tiger Woods called Tiger Woods

01:43:28.500 is Not Okay by Joel Beal. And he said, Woods had nearly died and it felt indecent to push,

01:43:35.240 but the absence of a test is not the same as a clean result. It is the absence of a test.

01:43:40.520 What we were left with in place of information was a story about survival and the road back.

01:43:46.660 That was covered extensively and which made it functionally impossible to also say,

01:43:50.960 we don't know what was in his system that morning. That matters. It still matters.

01:43:57.260 The Golf World, this publication included, he writes, has organized its Tiger coverage around

01:44:01.060 one persistent question for years. Can he play? It's a reasonable question if you're covering

01:44:06.780 sports. It becomes an incomplete one when the honest answer to a prior question,

01:44:12.100 is this man okay, is visibly and has for some time been no. And he goes on to say this,

01:44:20.260 we hope we're wrong. Maybe there's an explanation for the refused urine test because he refused in

01:44:25.200 this latest incident to have the urine tested. So he's been cited for failure to submit to a

01:44:30.060 urine test, but we all know why he refused to give the urine test. When he came out of that

01:44:34.460 car after the rollover, the police said he seemed dazed and impaired. He had no alcohol in his

01:44:39.540 system. They did a blood alcohol, like a breathalyzer on him at the station, but he refused

01:44:44.260 the urine test, and it's very clear why. But they write, maybe there's an explanation for the

01:44:50.800 refused urine test that has nothing to do with what it appears to suggest. Everyone's entitled

01:44:55.700 to their privacy, and no one should be mocked for their trials. But privacy is a harder argument to

01:45:01.520 make when the struggle keeps arriving in public, on roadsides, in mugshots, in sheriff's press

01:45:08.080 conferences, at some point, looking away is not discretion. It's something closer to abandonment.

01:45:16.240 Stu Tiger Woods is reportedly worth over a billion dollars. His homes are absolutely

01:45:23.040 magnificent. He has a huge mega yacht. And do you know what he named it? Privacy.

01:45:33.280 He named his yacht Privacy. He's desperate for it. And because he's so beloved as a public figure

01:45:42.620 and a sports hero, the media tries to cooperate in the way this Joel Beal of Yahoo accurately

01:45:52.440 writes about. But he's right. Protecting Tiger Woods by not giving him that blood alcohol test

01:46:01.980 and urine tests in the 2021 crash that almost killed him. And anybody who's running cover for

01:46:08.440 him on what's obvious in this crash that could have killed him and others is not doing Tiger

01:46:14.180 Woods any favors. This guy needs help. He's obviously not well. He's not well mentally.

01:46:23.480 He's not holding it together. And let me give you one more. Here's how the article continues.

01:46:28.960 There is a 50-year-old man who has been in some form of pain, physical or otherwise, for longer than most of his fans have been watching him, who has been trying by every public account to hold together a competitive life and an institutional role and a comeback narrative and a body that has been asked to do more than bodies are meant to do.

01:46:49.720 The golf can wait.

01:46:51.620 It has waited before.

01:46:53.320 The difference now is what's at stake isn't a green jacket or a record or a comeback story.

01:47:00.100 It's him.

01:47:02.380 And so we are hashtag part of the problem, Stu.

01:47:04.720 Everyone who makes the focus on what's the next tournament he'll be back at, can he win the Masters again or the U.S. Open, we are hashtag part of the problem.

01:47:17.360 the focus now really must be on Tiger Woods the man yeah I think part of it is somewhat natural

01:47:26.600 right like we just he's really beloved like we really want the best I think for Tiger Woods

01:47:31.620 you know some some public figures go down roads like this and we are you know Alec Baldwin really

01:47:38.920 you know he's had his problems and we're just all like you know no one you know wants to embrace

01:47:44.380 alec baldwin there's a bunch of people who go down these roads roads and we're like oh gosh

01:47:48.260 what a pathetic waste you know you know the society sort of decides at some point how they

01:47:54.000 want to treat these people on sort of we don't know exactly why these decisions get made but i 0.97

01:47:58.080 do feel like with tiger as a society we're really rooting for the guy like we really want him to

01:48:02.880 succeed you know we love him um he's not a villain in our society he's not one of these people where

01:48:09.040 We're like, oh, gosh, you know, he, you know, he is a bad guy and we're sort of kind of

01:48:14.460 rooting on his failure, which is a dark part of especially celebrity culture.

01:48:18.700 That's not really what happens with Tiger.

01:48:20.180 We want him to succeed and he just keeps falling down over and over and over again.

01:48:24.500 And these are just completely nonsensical types of things, right?

01:48:28.880 Like, as you mentioned, he's got a billion dollars here.

01:48:31.160 There's no reason for him to ever be driving a car.

01:48:33.960 The capitalist in me did think immediately Elon needs to get him on the phone for a commercial

01:48:38.360 for Tesla's auto drive feature

01:48:41.500 because he would be the ultimate spokesperson

01:48:44.140 for that particular item.

01:48:47.360 Waymo, get on the line with Tiger Woods immediately.

01:48:50.000 But it does feel like there is a situation

01:48:51.940 where with Tiger,

01:48:53.920 because he's so good at what he does

01:48:57.380 that we kind of assign that ability

01:49:01.140 to the rest of his life.

01:49:02.840 We think he's going to be able to pull these things out.

01:49:05.280 You know, he had a back injury.

01:49:06.540 He was able to push through it and win a major.

01:49:08.360 Like, he's able to do these incredible things, and we think he's going to be able to do that

01:49:12.780 in his own life, but he's obviously shown he's incapable of it.

01:49:16.220 The fact that he's making this, it's not even a mistake, it's this type of mistake.

01:49:20.780 How can that possibly be happening after everything he's been through?

01:49:24.940 After what we've seen with other people who have died in tragic accidents throughout the

01:49:29.920 years, his life could be over at any moment, and he has all these people around him who

01:49:36.620 you'd think have nothing but the best, you know, want the best for him to be able to

01:49:41.240 succeed at least financially in his life, and he still keeps going down these roads.

01:49:45.680 That's a sign of a much deeper problem and certainly one that the celebrity press is

01:49:50.800 not going to be able to solve, but you just hope there's somebody in his life who actually

01:49:53.880 cares, who can get in his head and say, please solve this.

01:49:57.880 The Post has, there's a quote from an insider today that reads, he is enabled by people

01:50:05.220 making money off of his talent and reputation. Of course, we see that in almost every case of

01:50:11.400 these megastars. It's very hard to get exactly the right team around you. And even then to know

01:50:16.280 that they care about you, you the person, as opposed to you the star. I mean, he's got really

01:50:23.500 F you money. And of course, there will be a team there that wants to keep the machine going forward,

01:50:29.380 You know, the moneymaker making money as opposed to thinking about the man.

01:50:34.800 Like, look what happened with Elvis.

01:50:36.040 Elvis Presley is the greatest example ever of that, right?

01:50:38.360 How exploited he was and how much advantage they took of him and how they pumped him through

01:50:43.020 full of drugs, just like he was some sort of a racehorse, which is a terrible analogy

01:50:47.160 because we shouldn't be doing that to racehorses either.

01:50:50.860 And he died, you know, he died, what, at 47 of a massive heart attack because they couldn't

01:50:54.720 keep that horse running for too much longer.

01:50:57.340 You can't do this.

01:50:58.140 You can't torture a human this way.

01:51:00.400 And with Tiger, the torture seems self-imposed.

01:51:03.880 We pulled this soundbite.

01:51:06.180 His relationship with his dad is storied.

01:51:08.960 His dad died in 2006.

01:51:10.760 Some reports are that Tiger never got past it

01:51:12.920 because they were so close.

01:51:15.240 And then because it was 2009

01:51:16.500 that he had his big implosion with his now ex-wife.

01:51:19.920 Her name is Elin, right?

01:51:21.940 Not to be confused with Elon,

01:51:23.220 who should get him in the ads for the Tesla self-driving car.

01:51:26.620 But he had that huge meltdown with his wife.

01:51:28.460 And then it came out that he had been having

01:51:29.740 all these multiple affairs

01:51:30.980 with all these like questionable women. 1.00

01:51:34.060 And that was the first we sort of realized,

01:51:35.720 whoa, whoa, whoa, there's something going on with Tiger

01:51:37.500 that we didn't know about.

01:51:39.080 That was 2009.

01:51:40.100 And then it was sort of, will he come back?

01:51:41.440 And he did come back.

01:51:42.160 And then the 2017 thing with the DUI

01:51:45.440 and then 2021 where he nearly died,

01:51:47.640 by the way, in that 21 accident,

01:51:50.740 multiple surgeries, three weeks in the hospital.

01:51:53.500 And as I said, he nearly lost his right leg.

01:51:55.800 and now here we are in 2026 with yet another accident caused by Tiger and more obvious

01:52:03.080 impairment, according to the police. But look at this. Okay, look at this clip. Tiger here. I don't

01:52:08.720 know. He looks like maybe he's, I'm bad at estimating, but maybe 20. I don't know. He looks

01:52:12.920 young, but he's not like the little kid. We've got video of that too. But here he is with his dad.

01:52:17.080 His dad is mostly the star in this clip, talking about how the dad trained him.

01:52:20.760 just as he's beginning to swing i dropped my whole bag of club and he would stop and look at

01:52:27.700 me those teeth gritting and start again i throw a dozen golf balls in front of his ball

01:52:33.860 but he'd never push me over the edge he would take me right up to the breaking point and he'd back

01:52:40.900 off he'd stop again and i'd say hey look are you through showboating the the marshal says we have

01:52:49.620 complete this round in four hours and you're taking up more than your share of the time

01:52:55.620 so either hit or go get off the course and then he would stripe it

01:53:05.220 just hit it perfect and turn around and look at me and never say a word but that look said

01:53:10.820 now take that and go walking down the fairway eventually we take more and then more and then

01:53:19.460 more and then more finally to the point where it didn't didn't bother me anymore it's a tiger

01:53:26.680 the training is over listen you've got it and i promise you that you'll never meet another person

01:53:33.760 as mentally tough as you in your entire life i mean that's like to me that's sad yeah because

01:53:42.440 you can hear him saying like he pushed him pushed him pushed him tiger says never over the edge

01:53:48.320 close, but then he'd back off. And then the stamp of approval at the end, you'll never meet anybody

01:53:54.540 mentally tougher than you. Well, it turns out Tiger Woods is not, he's not all superhero.

01:53:59.820 He's part man to human who isn't mentally impermeable, who actually does have weaknesses

01:54:10.400 and doubts and insecurities and is subjected to physical pain, just the same as any mere mortal.

01:54:17.380 But unfortunately, he doesn't seem to have the skills to deal with that.

01:54:22.120 He knows how to be resilient on the golf course.

01:54:24.820 But in life, as you age, as your body starts to fail you, as it does most professional athletes,

01:54:31.640 just given the number of hours of abuse they've put it through, he is dating now.

01:54:37.300 We understand him to be in a relatively happy relationship with Vanessa Trump, but that can't solve everything.

01:54:44.840 And by the way, the Post also reported that the Secret Service knew not to let Vanessa and Don Jr.'s children ride in any car being driven by Tiger.

01:54:53.960 So that's good.

01:54:54.880 They took that precaution.

01:54:55.800 But clearly, you know, those around him have seen issues and known of earlier issues.

01:55:01.320 And I just, to me, I feel sad.

01:55:03.500 I'm sad.

01:55:04.880 I don't mean this in a pejorative way, but I feel sorry for him.

01:55:07.640 I wish he had grown up knowing it's, I'm just loved.

01:55:12.100 Just me, this little boy.

01:55:13.280 no matter how I swing this club, my dad is going to appreciate me and value me no matter whether I

01:55:20.300 win that green jacket eventually or not. And I think that's what we're seeing him struggle with.

01:55:26.200 I mean, I'm armchair psychologizing him, but to me, it seems pretty clear that's what he's

01:55:30.320 struggling with. That and the physical pain from earlier bad decisions. And I don't know, Stu,

01:55:35.880 I think it's a good, I wish Tiger would talk about it. You know, I wish he would get the

01:55:39.960 help he needs seriously get rehabbed get therapy like real therapy and maybe come to the point

01:55:46.480 where he can talk about what was missing we know it wasn't the golf swing but it was something else

01:55:52.580 uh well first of all uh hashtag let vanessa drive uh i think would be something maybe we

01:55:59.060 should start spreading around um but i agree or the secret service yes secret service would be

01:56:03.980 great yeah that's a great outcome uh you know it's tough it's it is a um uh you know we have

01:56:11.500 this idea there's a great book uh how innovation works it's by matt ridley and he goes through

01:56:16.360 kind of how all these incredible inventions uh came around how did we get here to this you know

01:56:20.540 the civilization that we have with all these amazing uh things and we all have know these

01:56:25.440 stories right the story of you know some incredible person i you know einstein or you know these big

01:56:32.580 names. And the book basically talks about how in almost all of these circumstances, there were

01:56:38.740 five, six, 10, 12 people around the world who were coming to a very similar conclusion right

01:56:45.700 around the same time, right? Like they all kind of were taking all this knowledge the world had

01:56:51.720 built up and kind of building it into the new thing, whether it's, you know, like the light

01:56:55.940 bulb, you know, was it Edison, was it Tesla, all those things back and forth. But there was a bunch

01:57:00.000 of other people had other parts of that at the same time and we love that sort of like storybook

01:57:05.680 of the one guy who had this amazing light bulb moment where they were like oh my gosh now i know

01:57:10.580 how to do it and we build this hero out of them a lot of times when it comes to sports it's this

01:57:15.680 story right where the dad or a coach is super tough on them and just beating them up and they

01:57:21.180 were able to rise you know rise above that and but are taught those lessons and they become this

01:57:26.180 incredible success and now we look up to them they're in monuments and they're in museums and

01:57:30.420 hall of fames and like that's can happen and and sometimes it does work out better than tiger woods

01:57:36.160 and sometimes a lot worse we lose track of the thousands and thousands and thousands of people

01:57:41.220 who have childhoods like that who wind up hating their parents because of the way they were treated

01:57:45.540 and who never rise even close to what tiger woods achieved it's really really difficult to do that

01:57:51.880 obviously i had a guy i knew you know a few years ago who was in his he was like his late 20s and

01:57:58.320 he had worked his way through uh you know the tennis circuit right he had played in all the

01:58:03.600 the great uh you know camps and gone down to florida and played there he was i think he's

01:58:08.780 from sweden he'd come over he had he had been trained as a high school uh student and and on

01:58:15.580 was pulled out of school was playing tennis constantly and became good enough to be like

01:58:20.160 the thousandth best tennis player in the world what an incredible achievement and i was asking

01:58:27.440 about his life and he was saying you know what my life is like he's like i don't make even when i

01:58:33.180 win a couple of matches i go to these tournaments and i don't make enough to pay for the trip

01:58:37.920 that's my life he's like i i love tennis at one point i don't love it anymore he's like giving

01:58:43.760 lessons he was converting into regular life because it had beaten the love of the game out of

01:58:48.300 him and there's thousands and thousands and thousands of those stories for every one tiger

01:58:52.340 woods so encourage your kid to play sports it's great but make sure that balance is there it's

01:58:57.120 more i can it's more important uh than trying to make them this massive success because honestly

01:59:02.860 they'll probably get there on their own if they had that type of talent if you could nurture it

01:59:06.760 at some level but really your relationship with them and the man or woman they become

01:59:11.360 later on in life is far more important.

01:59:14.900 Yeah, amen to that.

01:59:16.680 Stu Bergeer, love talking to you.

01:59:18.580 Thanks for coming on.

01:59:19.720 Thank you, Megan.

01:59:20.340 This is so much fun.

01:59:21.780 I know, as always.

01:59:23.020 Love having you on.

01:59:24.700 I just want to tell the audience a couple more things.

01:59:27.460 I didn't read to you exactly what happened during this crash.

01:59:31.320 I didn't have it in front of me,

01:59:32.100 but here's how the post describes it.

01:59:34.560 Happened Friday, allegedly under the influence

01:59:37.360 of some type of medication or drug

01:59:39.180 when he rolled his Land Rover just minutes from his home around 2 p.m. in a two-car crash on South

01:59:45.940 Beach Road, again on Jupiter Island, just like the one in 2017. According to the Martin County

01:59:54.020 Sheriff, that's the one saying he appeared under the influence of some type of medication or drug,

01:59:58.420 and that's how it happened. He looked dazed and glassy-eyed in the mugshot after being busted on

02:00:03.580 DUI charges for flipping his luxury SUV while allegedly trying to zip around a truck.

02:00:09.180 on a narrow Florida roadway Friday.

02:00:12.740 He wasn't injured.

02:00:13.940 He allegedly tried to blow past a flatbed truck

02:00:16.240 at high speed, but clipped it,

02:00:18.500 causing his SUV to roll onto its side in the accident.

02:00:22.160 Police say he appeared lethargic following the crash

02:00:24.500 and showed signs of impairment,

02:00:26.160 but a breath test showed no signs of alcohol.

02:00:30.060 Authorities also found no drugs or medications in the car.

02:00:32.700 He was arrested and charged with driving

02:00:34.560 under the influence, property damage,

02:00:36.520 and refusal to submit to a lawful test.

02:00:39.500 That's what he's dealing with here.

02:00:42.840 I think that, you know, Tiger,

02:00:46.680 he's probably now gonna get some help.

02:00:49.260 I mean, I certainly hope now he's gonna get some help.

02:00:52.360 And I think probably the narrative

02:00:55.320 will quickly switch back once again to golf.

02:00:58.620 I mean, he won the Masters, I think in 2019.

02:01:00.960 It wasn't that long ago.

02:01:02.280 Like he's totally been back at it,

02:01:04.720 even though he is aging.

02:01:06.520 Um, he's getting older and, um, I don't know. I, his life is so big and so grand. It's hard

02:01:14.080 for people not to admire him. He's has so many athletic accomplishments. Let me show you pictures

02:01:18.560 of his home, which we pulled. They're incredible. His, the way he lives is, I mean, most normal

02:01:24.980 Americans could only dream of living in the homes that he lives in. And like I mentioned the, I

02:01:31.660 I mean, his yacht must have cost him, I don't know, $150 million.

02:01:35.040 It's so huge and so gorgeous.

02:01:37.740 He's got tons of great like investment properties and resorts.

02:01:41.060 And, you know, he can have basically any woman in the world he wants.

02:01:45.860 He's, you know, dating Vanessa Trump, who is stunning and smart and cool and has the

02:01:50.660 Trump name and, you know, some pretty interesting connections of her own, of course. 1.00

02:01:55.300 But here's the thing.

02:01:58.160 It doesn't make you happy.

02:02:00.000 I think you know that.

02:02:01.160 I think, you know, you guys watching this program, we all, we both know that because

02:02:05.880 we talk about it a lot. You can achieve all those mansions and a billion dollar net worth

02:02:11.460 and all the fancy cars and a yacht and all of it. And it doesn't make you happy.

02:02:16.780 That has to come from you. And by the way, and by the way, it takes parents who aren't just

02:02:24.220 focused on making you into a golf star. It takes parents who are building up that sense of

02:02:29.280 resilience inside of you, no matter what disappointment comes your way and no matter

02:02:33.440 in what form. And the ability to understand right from wrong, like not serial cheating on your spouse

02:02:39.140 and not getting behind the wheel of a car impaired over and over and over again, because now you're

02:02:46.980 endangering not just yourself, but other people's children. That's a moral sin. And he's not able

02:02:54.660 to control it. That's very clear. And now they say that the penalty for that not submitting to

02:02:59.120 a test could be a suspension of your license for a year. It better be longer than that.

02:03:04.340 I mean, please, this guy, Tiger should not have a license. He doesn't need one. He can hire a

02:03:10.080 chauffeur. It's a, won't even notice the deductions in his checking account, not to mention Uber or

02:03:16.080 the self-driving car, but it doesn't make you happy. And here's one other thing I wanted to say.

02:03:20.760 I went through high school and I was not a serious student. I was never a serious student. I was smart enough that grades came relatively easily to me. I didn't have to work that hard. They weren't great. They were fine. I got A's and B's for the most part. There were a couple of C's. But I did fine. And I just didn't care. I was much more focused on my friends. My dad died at the beginning of my sophomore year of high school. So that definitely had its effects on me. And I was focused more on just like being with friends and feeling

02:03:50.760 supported and loved. And the feeling you have as a teenager with your pals, that's what I was after.

02:03:58.080 Well, I got into Syracuse University and I did pretty well there. And I started to care more

02:04:02.040 about grades. My mom told me I had to get a 3.0 or she wasn't going to pay. She was using my dad's

02:04:05.820 insurance money to get me through. So I knew I better honor that. And I did fine. Then I decided

02:04:11.500 I wanted to go to law school. I didn't get into any fancy law schools. I did get into Albany,

02:04:16.440 which is where I'm from, first 10 years in Syracuse, rest in Albany. So they're both kind

02:04:20.400 in my hometown. And, um, I went, went to Albany law school. When I was at Albany, I started to

02:04:28.500 take, to take myself seriously. I finally started to take my academics like truly seriously and

02:04:33.180 really to study and to now I'm paying for it myself. Right. And I did well at Albany and I,

02:04:39.960 I graduated toward the top of my class and I made the law review that was important in law school,

02:04:46.520 but none of that was getting me like the job offers from the top, top tier law firms that

02:04:54.440 you get. You know, if you're, if you're in the top, I was, I think I was top 12% when I graduated

02:04:58.880 or no, I was top 10% when I graduated, but top 12% at the end of the first year. But in any event,

02:05:03.520 my, the point is simply I was at the top, but you have to be like top 3% if you're in Albany to get

02:05:07.580 the best offers. And I wasn't, but I managed to like work it and get one anyway. Long story short,

02:05:15.560 what I'm trying to say is, got a great job with Bicklin Brewer. And then two years into that,

02:05:20.420 I managed to upgrade to this firm, no offense to Bicklin Brewer, but this very large white 1.00

02:05:25.280 shoe law firm called Jones Day. Now, how did I get that? Well, yes, by this point,

02:05:29.660 I had experience at a great firm. But I knew a professor from Albany Law School who had a

02:05:36.740 connection at Jones Day. And that professor just picked up the phone and said to this partner,

02:05:41.080 you should meet her. Like it didn't, no one looked at a resume. No one looked at what I'd

02:05:46.520 done in moot court. You know, what I'd done during my first two years when I was at that

02:05:50.440 other smaller firm, it was somebody at my small pedestrian, you know, third tier law school who

02:05:58.160 knew a guy who said, this is a great gal. She's really smart and you're going to like her. He was

02:06:03.980 being kind. And I went in an interview with that guy and we hit it off. And next thing I know,

02:06:10.060 he brought me back for the full range of interviews that you have to go through.

02:06:12.820 And I got the job and my life changed. This small town girl from Albany and Syracuse who

02:06:17.340 totally saw herself growing up, getting married, probably in living my life in Syracuse, which I 0.90

02:06:22.000 really loved. You know, it's like, I didn't know what I would do. I really, I don't know,

02:06:27.820 maybe practice law, maybe hang out my own shingle, maybe be a criminal prosecutor.

02:06:32.300 But I thought I would have a suburban life in Syracuse, New York doing that. But think my

02:06:39.120 life changed. It changed dramatically because of that one phone call that led to one thing and then

02:06:43.100 another. And this is a long way of telling you, you don't have to ruin your child's life in hopes

02:06:50.700 of him or her achieving something great when they're in adulthood, having money, having

02:06:59.260 accomplishments, having love. I could have easily been very happy in Syracuse, New York, doing

02:07:05.880 exactly the plan I originally thought of. My life got much bigger for the reasons, you know,

02:07:10.640 I mean, you sort of, those of you who watch the show know it took a different direction and that's

02:07:14.600 fine too. I will confess that comes with a different set of headaches, definitely comes

02:07:19.320 with a different set of headaches, but also blessings. And I didn't, I didn't lose my

02:07:26.700 childhood. I had great times with friends and boyfriends and the prom and frivolity

02:07:35.760 and going to concerts, going to parties, I loved it. And part of all of it did go into making me

02:07:46.780 who I am today. I do think joy is important. Schedule the joy. Like I'm going over my kids'

02:07:55.480 schedules with them for next year. They have to make some course selections in high school. And

02:07:58.800 it's like, of course they're in a competitive school and there's pressure to like take all

02:08:04.400 the hardest classes and get the toughest resume with the best grades. And I keep saying like,

02:08:09.520 don't do that. Like challenge yourself, keep yourself busy for sure. And challenge your

02:08:13.640 beautiful minds, but do some frivolous things. Like choose some of the fun electives that no

02:08:19.400 one is going to be impressed by. Like make some deposits into the U fund or everything else gets

02:08:25.480 depleted really fast. You know, it's like you, and all those apps on your phone, when they're open,

02:08:32.600 there should be some that are like books and Sirius XM and the crossword or whatever,

02:08:41.780 something or, and games. Those are fine. Like it can't all be about the sports, the golf,

02:08:49.560 the academics, the discipline, the ballet, the what, you know, like you're building a person.

02:08:57.760 You're not building a tee time, you know, or a golf handicap.

02:09:05.000 And I just think too often we forget that.

02:09:06.980 We think we're doing it for their own good.

02:09:10.300 They'll get into the best college.

02:09:12.240 I didn't get into the best college.

02:09:13.580 No offense, again, to Syracuse.

02:09:14.760 It's actually more respected right now academically than it was when I went there.

02:09:17.700 But things can work out, sometimes just based on a phone call,

02:09:22.720 like one phone call that, that, you know, you just happen to know a guy who knew a guy

02:09:28.900 and your willingness to speak to that guy and ask for the favor. Maybe that comes from all

02:09:33.260 the socialization you did that made you unafraid to ask somebody for a favor, even though you

02:09:38.140 didn't know him that well, whatever. I just think trust in the process and the process doesn't

02:09:42.760 always have to be near abusive commitment to the thing that we've now been told under modern day

02:09:49.540 standards is going to make your kid's life better. Okay. Sorry. I'm done with my rant.

02:09:55.340 That's my two minutes or 20 on the Tiger Woods saga. And I'd love to know your thoughts on it.

02:10:00.440 Email me, megan at megankelly.com and also go to megankelly.com. Go there, sign up for my one

02:10:08.660 email a week. Comes on Fridays. It's called the American News Minute. And truly like when you,

02:10:15.320 I took video, I caught Stredwick in the act of the most epically bad thing he's done in years,

02:10:22.540 in years. You will see it. You will see the eyewitness and co-conspirator to it.

02:10:29.120 And you will feel very sorry for me, I think. You will feel very sorry for me,

02:10:34.500 given the naughty, naughty dog I continue to have this late in his life. In any event,

02:10:41.100 lots of love to all of you. Thank you for listening. We will be back to see you all

02:10:44.940 tomorrow. Thanks for listening to The Megan Kelly Show. No BS, no agenda, and no fear.

The Megyn Kelly Show - March 30, 2026

Trump's Iran Uranium Push, Lindsey Graham at Disney World, and Tiger Woods' Sad DUI, with Professor Pape and Stu Burguiere ｜ Ep. 1284

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