Election Night 2024 with The Daily Wire
Episode Stats
Length
6 hours and 14 minutes
Words per Minute
197.3013
Hate Speech Sentences
190
Summary
Trump supporters gather at Trump HQ in West Palm Beach, Florida to watch the results of the latest election night polls close. The latest results from CNN and the Associated Press are in, and it's clear that Trump is on his way to victory.
Transcript
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History has been made, and The Daily Wire is your front row seat to watch it all as it unfolded live.
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Join me, Ben Shapiro, Matt Walsh, Andrew Klavan, Jeremy Boring, and special guests for in-depth coverage,
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All came in, expert analysis you will not find anywhere else, from key battlegrounds to exclusive insights.
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This is the election night coverage you cannot afford to miss
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from one of the all-time, perhaps the all-time great, election victory in American history.
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Welcome to The Daily Wire's 2024 election night coverage.
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I'm joined by our backstage pals, Ben Shapiro, Michael Knowles, Andrew Klavan, Matt Walsh.
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We're going to be going through this with you in real-time, bringing you real-time updates.
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As polls close, as we get information, we'll bring it to you.
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There will be wild speculation, of course, largely from Andrew.
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There will be comedy, the comedy stylings of Matt Walsh, and we'll just try to survive
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until the election is over sometime between now and the certification on January 6th.
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We'll take turns stepping out, grabbing catnaps.
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According to Decision Desk HQ, Trump has now won South Carolina.
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Unfortunately, Kamala Harris has won Vermont in response.
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Trump has also, according to the Associated Press, won Indiana.
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So basically, 49 states for Trump is the current projection right now.
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Well, actually, right now, let's hear from Mary Margaret Olihan.
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I mean, I'm sure you're pleased to talk to us as well.
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Give us a sense of what it's like down there right now.
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Hey, Ben, and, of course, it's an honor to talk to you all down here in Palm Beach, where
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You can see behind me, there's a whole bunch of people congregating.
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Anybody who is anybody wants to be here tonight and be in Trump's election night party as they
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And we've been talking to a lot of people on the ground here, trying to get a sense of
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And I can tell you the atmosphere is very hopeful, very excited.
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People are on edge, but I would say in a good way.
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They're just, they're really amped up for tonight.
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We're going to be talking to everyone and getting a sense for where this is going.
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So how relaxed or nervous are they in the room?
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Well, you know, these people are all from D.C. or they're from Florida.
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What they'll tell you is they're, quote, unquote, cautiously optimistic.
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I've been emailing or texting with a whole bunch of different Trump advisors.
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And what they're telling me is they're feeling good, but they're still pushing people to get
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And that's what one advisor told me not even five minutes ago.
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So the push is get to the polls, get to the polls.
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That's what Trump himself was saying last night in Michigan.
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Now it's up to you guys to get to the polls and to make America great again.
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So, Mary, we know that you've been closely following Trump's movements over the past few
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I mean, I assume he's in the back somewhere at Mar-a-Lago.
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So he's over at Mar-a-Lago with his close circle, his close-knit friends.
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We're told that they're all going to come over here if he wins.
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But we know that he'll be over here if he does, in fact, win.
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And we're hearing that top Trump surrogates are going to be coming here as well.
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It's exciting to talk to them, hear what they think about how this race is going.
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So the people we talk to are just very hopeful and excited.
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And obviously, when it comes to Florida, everyone's excited there because it's the best state
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in America, it's not just because it's where I live, mostly because it's where I live.
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But also, the results are already coming in from Florida.
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Donald Trump has about a 200,000 vote lead on Kamala Harris.
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And Jill Stein bringing up third place with 16,000 votes.
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The Jill Stein vote coming in strong across the country.
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So, Mary, does the Trump campaign, you know, have any idea as to, you know, how long this
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And that's the big question everyone's asking is, are we going to be here for the next,
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So nobody seems to know the answer to that, Ben.
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I think we're all hoping this will be over very quickly.
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earlier, asking him how he's feeling about the race.
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And he told me he thinks things are looking good as long as there's no, quote, unquote, BS.
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So it remains to be seen how this night will go, if we're going to be in a long, drawn-out
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I'm sure we'll check back in with you quite shortly as the night progresses.
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Anyway, have a good time over there in Florida.
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Folks, Daily Wire's footprint at the Trump headquarters was made possible at PDS Debt.
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Get a custom plan to become debt-free right now at pdsdebt.com slash dailywire.
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That's pdsdebt.com slash dailywire, pdsdebt.com slash dailywire.
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And now a bunch of people are in seats that they were not in before.
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Every time we come back, there is somebody who has inhabited a different body.
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So we have Clay Travis, who has joined us in his most elegant regalia.
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I've had this, unfortunately, the last time I was sitting with all of you was two years ago.
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I'm either going to be like a, I'm going to be at Kid Rock's honky-tonk tonight.
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So it's going to be one of the most amazing nights ever.
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And I'm going to be on the stage like, Donald Trump has won and now Kid Rock.
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And I'm going to be like, this is one of the great nights of my life.
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Or I'm going to be like the fan who paints his face, and then the camera finds him when
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Yeah, you're a grown man who painted his face, and you're like, I've just got to question
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The more we get into the votes coming in, the less optimistic I am.
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I wanted, we only had one race in the 21st century where I think both sides said, you know
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And it feels to me like we're going to be in another one of these, hey, if we had made
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If we miss a field goal, and it feels like that's basically every race in the 21st century.
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So I was hoping, and I still do have some hope, that Trump might have really kind of punched
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through, and it's all anecdote, but I bet you guys are similar.
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I know people who didn't vote Trump in 16, 20, and are voting Trump in 24.
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The hardest part for people like me, since I don't trust feelings, feelings are bad.
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You know, I'll get high, like, with the anecdotal evidence.
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I'll be walking around somewhere, and somebody who I'd never expect will come out of the
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woodwork and be like, I'm totally voting for Trump, and I'm really excited about it.
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And I'm like, remember, that's anecdotal evidence, and it doesn't mean anything.
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But I do not know a single person who voted Trump, Trump, Kamala.
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And so that, to me, feels like if I had to go to my gut, it is that Trump is going to
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win by the skin of his teeth, because enough people have seen that he isn't Hitler, and
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have been willing to make a shift since the last two elections.
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They tried to get black Jeremy, and they said, we'll get slightly younger white guys.
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Jeremy has grown taller, and his beard is slightly fuller, and he's de-aged, actually.
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So, Cabot, you're usually the informational guy.
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Yeah, well, one thing that I was thinking of when Megan was talking about the female vote
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is the fact that we can tend to think of both genders as kind of monoliths.
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But looking back at the 2022 midterm exit polls, Democrats obviously dominated with women
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But when you looked at their performance with married women, in the 2022 exit polls, married
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It was unmarried women who they picked up by a 37-point margin.
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And so, it can give this separate idea of how women vote as a whole.
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And I actually, I was on the ground in North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, talking
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And I realized that one of the easiest predictors for how someone was going to vote, if it was
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a woman, and I'd walk up to them if I saw a wedding ring on their finger, or if I saw
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kids with them, loading up their groceries in the parking lot, the majority of those
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If I saw a woman who was single, younger, clearly not married, they were overwhelmingly
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So, the good news is married women vote Republican, unmarried women vote Democrat.
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The problem is fewer and fewer people are getting married.
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So, that is not a good trend line for the Republicans.
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And the mystery is why is that divide so remarkable?
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No, is it that the women change when they get married?
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Is that it's a different kind of woman that's getting married to begin with, someone who's
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Is it that the unmarried women are angry with the system because they're single?
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And so, they're in a category, you know, if you're not allied with someone, if you don't
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have a partner, then you have reason to be what, you have reason to be resentful.
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Do you have a reason to doubt the validity of the system as a whole?
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Are you trying to trumpet that sexual freedom that's hypothetically part of being single?
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Like, there's something very strange going on here with unmarried young women.
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I think part of it is the failure of the aspirational, just generally in American society.
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I think so much of our voting now breaks down to, to go back to sort of the Elon Musk of
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If you fail in your attempt to do something, there are two things you can do.
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You can either do what a successful person does, which is say, what can I do differently
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in order to improve my lot, you know, as God tells Cain to do, or you can go out and try
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And you can basically say, it's the fault of the system.
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And so, if as a system, you say that you don't even aspire anymore to get married, that's
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not something to even aspire to, then there has to be some substitute for the thing that
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What is the life that is now the substitute for what a married life would have been?
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And so, if the substitute happiness, the ersatz happiness you're being provided is sex in
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the city, well, then of course abortion is your number one issue.
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Because abortion is the thing that destroys the possibility of you being forced into, I
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mean, let's be real about how marriage used to work in this country.
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A huge percentage of people got married because they knocked up a girl, right?
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I mean, that was like a huge number of shotgun weddings in America in 1940, extremely high.
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Especially in the South, where we are right now.
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That's not actually a bad thing, because it turns out that that's sort of how natural
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law would tend to suggest that things work, right?
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That if you actually knock somebody up, you should then get married to that person, then
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That was reality, cuddling you back into what you should aspire to doing anyway.
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Abortion cuts that completely off, which is why, if you wish to uphold the sex in the city
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We're going to take a quick moment to highlight, by the way, some cool stuff going on here at Daily
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We will be back in just a moment with that awkward intro.
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By myself, laughing out loud hysterically today.
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It is one of the most important contributions to cinema in American history.
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Your goal is to conduct an investigation into something key to the culture war.
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I highly recommend everybody go see this movie.
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Christ is a master at using short, mysterious stories.
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They change the listener who takes them seriously.
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My experience with the biblical text is that they're inexhaustible sources of wisdom.
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If I find something in them that is an obstacle, it's because there's something in me that has yet to be transformed.
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The person that you do not think could ever be virtuous.
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This is the person who is fulfilling the law and the prophets.
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But seek first his kingdom and his righteousness, and all these things shall be added to you as well.
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This parable I've been trying to understand forever.
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While we were talking and while we were sitting there, then it hit me.
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Name me one ideology that has supplanted Christianity that has done good for humanity.
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This Jew is very frightened of a post-Christian society.
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The model, the example of what we ought to become and what we can become.
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It's safe for you and all of your doubts and apprehensions to open up and to let these stories in.
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If you're doing this and it isn't also the love of wisdom, it's also an attempt at wisdom without love.
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I don't want to be in a Hallmark card, I tell you.
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This is one peculiar time and one peculiar text, and I sure hope we're up to the task.
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That was the world premiere of the teaser trailer for Jordan Peterson's new series on the Gospels,
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which, you know, I think, Dr. Peterson, that your series on Exodus is one of the finest things
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And I've only made it through about a quarter of the Gospel episodes, but they're just tremendous.
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Can you tell us a little bit about what that process was like?
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Well, the first thing I'd probably like to do is to thank you guys for having enough courage to undertake the endeavor.
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I mean, it's a big risk, you know, and it isn't at all obvious that a 16-part series on Exodus with nine academics,
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that's bad enough to begin with, you know, would be something that could attract an audience that there could be any business case for.
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But you guys, you know, you threw yourself into it, and then we doubled the length on you, and you went along with that.
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And I know it's been spectacularly successful, and that's been great.
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Well, it was a privilege, you know, because the people at the table were top rate.
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Like, I was really fascinated to be in the seminar because every single person that spoke always had something to say that I really wanted to listen to.
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Like, I learned that with the Exodus seminar because I learned so much there.
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It had a big influence on the book that I am publishing on November 19th.
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It helped me clarify a lot of the stories that I didn't understand.
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And then, of course, the same thing happened as we walked through the Gospels.
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And I hope that we did as good a job or better, both on the discussion side and on the production side,
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with the Gospel seminar as with the Exodus seminar.
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And it's, see, I've learned, this is a revolutionary thing, you know.
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I've learned that all the evidence supports the notion that we see the world through a story.
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In fact, a description of the structure through which we see the world is a story.
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So then the only question, once you know that, and I think that's indisputable on scientific grounds now.
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And so once you know that, the only question becomes, well, what's the story?
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You know, and the cultural insistence is that it's one of power.
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And the biblical insistence is that it's one of sacrifice.
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Hedonism, nihilism, which is sort of the absence of stories.
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But I think the idea that this community is founded on sacrifice is,
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And then the issue is, how do you investigate the structure of sacrifice?
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I don't want to get to any spoilers or anything like that.
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But when you're delving into this question, are you looking at it from the perspective of,
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you know, which of these two views is more conducive to the kind of society I want to live in?
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Or are you asking, which of these two views is right?
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Because I don't think there is a society that's predicated on power.
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I can force you to do something that I want you to do.
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A society is based on mutually acceptable sacrifice upward.
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And it's worth delving for a moment on what I mean by sacrifice.
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Like, if we're in a communal relation, it's not all about you.
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And that really is the definition of a relationship.
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If it's all about me, it's about my whim and my power to impose it.
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If we're in a relationship, I have to give up something that's immediate to me for the sake of the relationship and the sake of the future.
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And that's why sacrifice is at the foundation of society.
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And it's also the same in relation to work, because work is the sacrifice of the future.
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It's the sacrifice of the present to the future, right?
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So we sacrifice our own immediate whims to be communal, and we sacrifice the immediate present for the future.
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And I just can't see how that can be otherwise.
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Which is the idea that all social interaction is a consequence of power.
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That is, there are more dismal views that it's all sex and hedonism or that there's no meaning in anything.
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But the idea that all social organization is a function of power.
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First of all, I think that's a confession on the part of the theorist.
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And I also think that you, I also think it's untrue.
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It doesn't even work for chimpanzees, by the way, and the evidence for that is pretty clear.
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And it's also the most, I just can't imagine setting up a social system on a more dismal view of humanity and community than that of power.
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The only way we can work together is if I force you.
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We want, it's tyrants, it's whim-possessed tyrants who want that.
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It's like it reorients you in the world, right?
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Because all of a sudden, there's something, there's someone who's clearly more important than you.
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And a time frame that's clearly more important than you right now.
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And so, that was great doing the gospel center.
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My invitation to be in the academic roundtable was lost in my email inbox, but I would have been there.
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By the way, just a quick indicator, and you can talk more about this.
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Just a couple of pieces of good news if you want to be in a good mood.
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Osceola County, which is one of the most Hispanic counties in America, is like 55% Hispanic.
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Donald Trump is on the verge of winning that in Florida, which means that he is, you know,
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outperforming maybe this Puerto Rican, you know, issue with regard to Tony Hinchcliffe making a bad joke.
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Okay, maybe that has some consequences for places like Pennsylvania.
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I know there have been worries because there are 200,000 Puerto Rican voters in Pennsylvania.
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You know, the thing is, Puerto Ricans have a good sense of humor.
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I'm glad to hear some data actually back up that.
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As of 7.25 p.m. Eastern Time, according to Decision Desk HQ, Trump currently has a 61% chance of winning the presidency.
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So, the numbers they're seeing, obviously, they think are looking pretty good.
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And Decision Desk has been our partner tonight.
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If you're seeing any of the numbers that you're seeing on your screen or maps that you're seeing on your screen as we go through the evening tonight are by way of our partnership with Decision Desk HQ.
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I know we're not supposed to do exit polls, but I'm going to break my own rule because it makes me happy.
00:21:01.360
And, again, the rules don't apply to me since, you know, as a co-owner of the company and a very famous person, they let you do it.
00:21:07.960
So, according to the CNN exit poll, Georgia independents broke for Trump by 11%, which is a 20 percentage point swing toward Trump among indies from four years ago.
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He is suggesting that there's a possibility that Georgia gets called.
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Relatively early, as in within the next hour and a half or so.
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One more exit poll since I am not an employee of the company.
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25% of black voters in Georgia, reportedly male voters, went for Trump.
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If that is true and the independence is true, Trump is going to win Georgia, which would be huge.
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And the numbers would suggest, based on how well he's doing in Florida, there's a famous band, Florida-Georgia line.
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If you've ever spent any time around there, there's not a lot of difference between North Florida and South Georgia.
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So if Trump's going to win by 10 in Florida, I think he's going to win Georgia.
00:22:17.260
Can I just give a shout out to my boy, Ron DeSantis, who has turned Florida into the best state in America.
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Okay, Ron DeSantis turned that state from a dead heat in 2018 to a place where registered Republicans have a number of registered Democrats by a million.
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I think it's a million point two at this point.
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And Miami just went red in an 18-point swing from 2020.
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By the way, Hillary won Miami-Dade by 30, just in 2016.
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For like a point to the future, putting aside this election, which, you know, a little early for that.
00:22:48.760
But, you know, one thing that is positive that we should keep an eye on is, I know it's looking a little ahead, 2030 census is going to radically redo all these numbers.
00:22:56.800
Okay, 2030, so I've mentioned this before, my worst case scenario, which has been scaring everybody all over the internet,
00:23:01.780
which is that tonight Donald Trump wins North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and she wins 270 to 268.
00:23:09.540
Because of Omaha, because Nebraska didn't go one win in the state.
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And also because, so the census in 2020 was done wrong.
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The census undercounted Florida, it undercounted Texas, it overcounted New York, it overcounted Delaware and Rhode Island.
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And so if they'd done it right, Florida has two more electoral votes.
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Trump doesn't need to win any of the blue wall states in order to win the election.
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Okay, and so there's likely to be a lawsuit on that basis.
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But there will be a lawsuit on that basis if that's the result of the election, which is actually not super improbable, given the current odds.
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Now, what that means for 2030, however, is that as population continues to bleed south, as it continues to bleed to red states,
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if we do the census correctly in 2030, a bunch of this math gets redone.
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Florida now has three or four more electoral college votes, and places like Virginia have fewer, right?
00:24:01.980
So, you know, for all the sort of despair that you hear all the time from people, you know, things move, things change.
00:24:07.340
I'm old enough to remember when Florida and Ohio were swing states, and now those are bright red.
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And I think in the future, by the way, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin are all trending red.
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Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan look very much the same, trending red.
00:24:23.020
And that 25% black male exit poll is not a big surprise.
00:24:28.780
I mean, we've been talking about the gender wars and with respect to women, but the Kamala Harris campaign made a decision to make no attempt at all to win a single male vote.
00:24:40.160
They did not put out even one single ad the entire campaign targeted at men.
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You clearly didn't look at Pete Buttigieg and Tim Wolfe's black dude for Harris.
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And, of course, they put out a few ads that were allegedly ostensibly for men, but even those were actually talking to women.
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And that is a strategy that should cost them the election.
00:25:01.500
I also would hope, and by the way, you guys do great work.
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If you haven't seen Matt's movie, it is absolutely hysterical.
00:25:18.640
But I do think if that were to hold, what it would do is destroy identity politics, which
00:25:25.940
Are you talking about my movie still or the election?
00:25:28.240
But black men voting for Donald Trump has the potential to blow up identity politics, which
00:25:33.160
I think is the root cancer that is polluting so much of American discourse.
00:25:37.960
You may have noticed that joining us now, we have classicist, historian, host of the Young
00:25:41.540
Heretics podcast, and author of Light of the Mind, Light of the World, my good friend,
00:25:52.420
Yes, although you'll have an interesting take on this.
00:26:05.940
When Dr. Peterson was with us, and of course, Dr. Peterson will be back later on in the evening,
00:26:10.120
we were talking about sacrifice and the sort of Christian narrative that undergirds society.
00:26:15.720
And one of the things that it occurs to me that Christians are called to sacrifice, among other
00:26:19.840
things, in many instances, is their sense of self.
00:26:23.600
And religion often gives us a very false sense of self.
00:26:26.940
And Christianity posits that the false sense of self is that we're good.
00:26:31.320
And sadly, I think when Christianity is misused, it's actually misused to reinforce the old
00:26:39.860
And if we're good, then, of course, we don't need intervention from God in the form of Christ.
00:26:43.960
Why I bring this up right now is because a lot of Christians hang on to this view of themselves
00:26:50.700
that they are above having to get their hands dirty in worldly affairs.
00:26:55.340
And many Christians, for that reason, don't engage in the political process.
00:27:00.440
They think that if they engage in the political process, especially in a moment where you have
00:27:04.940
choices that are, let's call them suboptimal, maybe from a Christian value perspective.
00:27:10.980
I mean, Donald Trump, you could say many good things about Donald Trump.
00:27:18.300
His pro-choice sort of background has really reasserted itself in this election, which is
00:27:26.440
Christians, I think in this country, particularly evangelicals, do not know yet how to reorient
00:27:31.460
their politics in the wake of an event they never thought would occur, which is the overturning
00:27:42.820
When abortion was a sort of abstract judicial issue, Christians could afford to take an
00:27:53.340
And it was politically beneficial to take an abolitionist point of view.
00:27:56.440
Now listen, politics aside, morally, I am a complete abortion abolitionist.
00:28:09.280
But as a political issue, we now have to make a decision.
00:28:13.340
If I lived in California and there was an opportunity for a 14-week abortion ban, I would vote for it.
00:28:18.700
And if it passed, I would then start working on a 12-week abortion ban.
00:28:22.360
But many Christians are simply not willing to give up their image of themselves as pure and
00:28:28.060
perfect and holy and above it all and get their hands dirty with the difficult compromise
00:28:34.760
And I am concerned that if Christians don't vote, we won't win.
00:28:39.120
There are still 18 minutes to vote, to get in line to vote, before the next round of polls close.
00:28:45.780
If you're a Christian and you've been on the fence about the idea of voting, please go stand in line.
00:28:51.260
If you're not in a state where the polls have already closed, please get in line.
00:28:56.240
Our obligation is not to our view of ourselves.
00:28:59.920
Our obligation, if anything, is to confront our view of ourselves, realize our need.
00:29:04.240
And part of what we get out of grace in Christianity is the opportunity to actually participate in a world that isn't perfect.
00:29:11.820
You only get to participate in that world that isn't perfect if you believe in some sort of system of grace.
00:29:16.380
And I wanted to say that while Dr. Peterson was here.
00:29:23.660
Well, for all that conservatives have spent, what, four years at least now bewailing wokeness
00:29:31.000
and identifying all of its flaws and talking about what a terrible, ugly, self-destructive ideology it is,
00:29:38.340
which it is, and all of that is true, and we should point that out,
00:29:41.160
we still have not, as conservatives or as Christians, reckoned with the fact that wokeness offers people something.
00:29:49.740
Wokeness has a selling point, and it's exactly what you are saying.
00:29:54.700
It's an answer to the question, what must I do to be saved?
00:29:58.000
And for most of my adult life, we've pretended that that question doesn't matter,
00:30:03.580
that we can sweep it under the rug while we pursue material pleasures and technological advancements,
00:30:08.020
and that God is dead or over or irrelevant, and we don't even have to think about virtue or abstract, eternal ideals.
00:30:15.880
That idea turned out to be catastrophically wrong, even among the people who said that they believed it.
00:30:23.180
And this is why the new atheists and all the Sam Harris's and Richard Dawkins's of the world
00:30:29.040
have now been stampeded by a mob of young people, desperate for somebody to tell them how they can be good.
00:30:36.300
And woke politics stands right in that gap and says, all you have to do is take the knee.
00:30:42.900
You simply have to proclaim your guilt, you have to confess your systemic racism,
00:30:48.620
or you have to assume your position on the sacrificial pedestal as a minority or whatever,
00:30:54.180
and now you will once again be in the grand cosmic dance of virtue and pollution and sacrifice.
00:31:01.660
Christians are supposed to be different, I think is what you are saying.
00:31:06.080
The Christian pitch is actually something radically other than that,
00:31:10.880
in a way that almost no other ideology or religion offers.
00:31:15.100
G.K. Chesterton says, before you get the good news, you have to get the bad news.
00:31:18.680
And the bad news is that whereas virtue is absolute,
00:31:22.340
and God's justice is perfect altogether, and his righteousness is entire,
00:31:26.500
we are at an infinite remove from that in the world.
00:31:29.880
And the incarnation is the point of the incarnation.
00:31:32.420
God wouldn't have had to take on flesh and die if he weren't willing to meet us at that imperfect juncture
00:31:42.200
From wherever we are, whatever mess it is, however snarled and tangled we are,
00:31:46.540
and boy are we, in our past sins, in the sins of our fathers, in our ancestral guilt,
00:31:51.760
God in Christ takes one step toward God the Father with us.
00:31:56.100
And in terms of politics, this cashes out as the ancient virtue of prudence,
00:32:02.920
The Christian church fathers and the Aristotelians of the ancient world,
00:32:07.480
and I think the rabbis of the Talmud would all recognize what you are describing as a classic instance of prudence.
00:32:12.900
You don't get the world that conforms to your ideals.
00:32:15.900
You don't even get a world that approximates to your ideals.
00:32:18.300
You get a world that is a thousand miles away from your ideals, and you have two choices.
00:32:23.100
One is to nope out and be responsible for whatever the world is as it is because you have no effect on it.
00:32:29.180
And the other is to get your hands dirty and admit that you were never clean to be.
00:32:32.200
And on this point, you bring up good old Aristotle.
00:32:37.200
He says prudence is the paramount political virtue.
00:32:41.120
It is the most important of the political virtues.
00:32:43.400
And so we cannot afford to have Christians just throwing their hands up in the air in a kind of suicidal political quietism
00:32:51.100
that is really a homicidal political quietism because it's going to take a lot of good people down with them.
00:33:04.180
He is tall and very well educated and has a bit of a beard sometimes.
00:33:19.200
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We're now joined by Daily Wire host and reporter Megan Basham.
00:35:15.380
I did, and now I love just being in this den of testosterone.
00:35:20.000
To be fair to you, Michael has a pretty high level of estrogen, to be fair.
00:35:28.260
It's my home state because I, in my own personage and with my family,
00:35:32.660
they brought something like 20 Republican voters to Florida.
00:35:35.460
Just our immediate family and surrounding friends.
00:35:38.920
Florida is just blowing it out for Trump right now.
00:35:44.840
Right now, there are two major ballot measures that were on the ballot in Florida.
00:35:47.880
It was an attempt for Democrats to claw their way back in.
00:35:51.520
Amendment 3 was a legalized marijuana petition.
00:35:55.420
Both look like they are going to go down to defeat because Florida is a red state and ain't going back.
00:36:00.340
Meanwhile, over in Georgia, the results look pretty ugly for Kamala Harris thus far.
00:36:05.420
Some of the swing counties are moving toward Donald Trump.
00:36:09.580
There's also some problems, apparently, in New Hampshire.
00:36:12.220
There's some towns in New Hampshire that have had some pretty significant swings to Donald Trump.
00:36:16.840
If you had to game this thing out right now, it looks as though basically Kamala Harris' hopes come down to extraordinarily heavily turnout in Philadelphia, Detroit, Milwaukee.
00:36:25.500
That may be the entire election right there, is just do enough people show up for her in those three big cities specifically?
00:36:32.260
Because the rest of the map looks like it is trending toward Donald Trump over 2020.
00:36:38.280
I hadn't picked up the latest, so I'm really glad I came onto the set to get that update, especially about Amendment 4.
00:36:47.880
But, again, credit where credit is due, Georgia and Florida are two states where Donald Trump was at odds with the governor of that state.
00:36:55.900
And the governors of those states have done yeoman's work in actually shifting the voting population of those states.
00:37:01.000
Brian Kemp, the governor of Georgia, who endorsed Donald Trump, was at odds with them.
00:37:04.360
He's done really good work on the ground in Georgia, even though Donald Trump has been very much at odds with, say, the Secretary of State of Georgia.
00:37:09.320
And, of course, Ron DeSantis ran against Trump.
00:37:11.160
And then DeSantis endorsed Trump and has been campaigning for Trump, and that state continues to get redder and redder.
00:37:17.420
So, again, the early numbers, it's way too early to say anything like things look great.
00:37:21.840
But, again, if you were looking at, like, early trends, early trends for Donald Trump, people are showing up to vote.
00:37:28.400
And, by the way, if you're in Pennsylvania, you still have 10 minutes to get in line.
00:37:31.200
Get your ass in line if you're in Pennsylvania right now.
00:37:36.380
And speaking of Pennsylvania, we're being joined now by Cassie Akiva, who is joining us from Dave McCormick's election party headquarters in Pennsylvania.
00:37:43.920
Of course, McCormick running for Senate in that state.
00:37:55.600
The campaign told me that they're feeling pretty good.
00:37:57.640
There's been a really good turnout in the rural area.
00:38:02.720
What have you been saying on the ground in terms for support for Trump from Gen Z voters?
00:38:10.180
Yeah, so we went to a Trump rally yesterday in Pittsburgh, and we wanted to talk to voters about why they were voting for him.
00:38:16.380
And halfway through my interviews, I realized that every single person I interviewed was Gen Z.
00:38:20.900
There were so many Gen Zers there, so it had to be a video about Gen Z support.
00:38:59.460
The stuff that's happened in the past couple of years hasn't been good for our country.
00:39:02.120
I just think he's for the people, and he's going to make this country good again.
00:39:07.960
Kamal and Jill have done absolutely nothing for this country.
00:39:10.420
I just don't think I'm going to be able to buy a house.
00:39:12.300
Is this your first time voting for Donald Trump?
00:39:22.240
Why is it important for Gen Z to vote for Donald Trump?
00:39:26.120
If you want to be proud to be an American again, vote for Donald J. Trump.
00:39:34.380
We're going to be checking back out, checking back with you throughout the evening.
00:39:42.300
Well, I may as well mention here at the Decision Desk HQ, has Trump continuing to go up in the
00:39:46.380
possibility of winning Cal sheet, which is a betting market?
00:39:48.920
Cal sheet has Trump at a two to one favorite now in the betting markets.
00:39:52.020
It's the same thing is happening over at Polymarket.
00:39:54.140
So, you know, none of that means anything, but it also doesn't mean totally nothing.
00:39:57.940
If we're going the other way, certainly we would be seeing the celebration breaking out.
00:40:02.840
You know, it's a little too early for us to tune over to MSNBC and see like the bullets
00:40:06.260
of sweat coming down people's face like Robert Hayes in an airplane.
00:40:16.140
You do not win presidential elections by supporting candidates.
00:40:19.660
You win presidential elections by voting for candidates.
00:40:22.360
And there's still time for most of the country to vote.
00:40:27.340
Elections in our lifetime have been decided by so few votes.
00:40:30.900
If you make the decision to sit this one out, you may very well be making the decision for
00:40:35.340
the people who represent your values or more broadly support your values to lose.
00:40:40.940
Ben, Cassie is at McCormick's campaign HQ in Pennsylvania.
00:40:44.860
You actually did some campaigning with McCormick, didn't you?
00:40:49.520
So Dave is running an extraordinary campaign in Pennsylvania.
00:40:52.280
You'll remember early on when Trump was struggling to find his sea legs against Kamala Harris,
00:40:55.860
who's actually McCormick's campaign, that was putting out most of the great kick-ass ads against Kamala Harris.
00:41:00.560
McCormick is a business person, so he really is data-driven.
00:41:03.120
And so he's really kind of broken down the state into granular detail.
00:41:06.880
He's run a very solid campaign against Bob Casey, who, of course, is a longtime top-level Democratic politico in the state.
00:41:17.460
And so Pennsylvania is going to come down to the wire.
00:41:19.120
And, of course, their voting procedures take forever.
00:41:21.700
There are apparently some precincts that are there now going to extend out until 10 p.m. tonight because of failures over there.
00:41:35.140
I had the chance to spend some time with pretty much, I would say, every swing state candidate with just a couple of exceptions.
00:41:40.420
And, David, this crop of swing state candidates this year, this is not 2022.
00:41:47.500
We actually went out and got a bunch of good candidates like Eric Hovde in Wisconsin, who I think is going to win in Wisconsin, and Bernie Moreno in Ohio, who I think is almost certainly going to win.
00:41:57.080
That's me being confident, but I think he's almost certainly going to win in Ohio.
00:42:00.080
I'd say the baseline for Republican Senate wins, I know we haven't talked to Senate races yet, baseline for Republican Senate wins tonight is 52.
00:42:08.400
That includes Tim Sheehy, who I did campaign with in Montana, who is an amazingly good candidate.
00:42:12.680
Tim Sheehy is terrific on the stump, really charismatic, excellent story.
00:42:19.900
So, you know, he's going to win, I think, walking away in Montana.
00:42:24.260
Bernie Moreno, I think he's going to win in Ohio.
00:42:26.520
The question is, if you get to 53, 54, if Carrie Lake sneaks in, maybe even 55 tonight.
00:42:30.900
Listen, the stakes where the Senate are concerned are so high.
00:42:34.220
Should Donald Trump fail to carry the White House, the Senate could be the only institution that really stands between a president, Kamala Harris,
00:42:41.640
and the worst excesses of her policy agenda, including adding states to the country.
00:42:48.700
And if Donald Trump wins the presidency, he's going to need the Senate in order to confirm his justices, confirm his nominees, advance his agenda,
00:42:56.140
and give us the kind of conservative victories that we're looking for.
00:42:59.500
Ben, I was really proud of you for being out on the stump the way that you were.
00:43:02.400
And we actually put together this video of some of your appearances throughout the election.
00:43:19.100
This election is the most important election of our lifetimes.
00:43:21.700
Everybody says that every single election cycle.
00:43:31.160
If Democrats were to, God forbid, gain a triumvirate, the kind of damage they would do to the country
00:43:35.360
with the House, the Senate, and the presidency would be almost unthinkable at this point.
00:43:39.540
She has already vowed that she would kill the filibuster if she were given that opportunity.
00:43:43.680
She would then stack the Senate with a couple of extra states.
00:43:48.140
We're at really very high levels of violent crime.
00:43:51.480
We need to secure the border with the wall and Border Patrol.
00:43:53.760
The standard of education across all of America has gone in one direction.
00:43:59.600
What's at stake is not just slight differences in the marginal tax rate.
00:44:04.960
What's at stake here are fundamental values, fundamental American values.
00:44:14.020
When I was a kid, my dad used to say to me over and over again, he said,
00:44:17.460
Ted, when we lost our freedom in Cuba, I had a place to flee to.
00:44:28.180
There's a party in this country that wants the future of America to be stagnation, social decay, foreign policy weakness.
00:44:34.600
And then there's one party and there's one group of people who want America to build, to explode forth.
00:44:41.600
This is what President Trump means when he says make America great again.
00:44:44.280
We want a secure border, safe streets, cheap gas, cops are good, criminals are bad, boys are boys, girls are girls.
00:45:04.080
And it's not glitzy, glamorous work to go out and stump for, you know, it's a great thing to go out and stump with Trump.
00:45:10.200
And you were able to co-host a fundraiser for him this year, have him on your show, do an appearance on the anniversary of the October 7th massacre with him and get some great time with Trump.
00:45:20.560
But it's really the sort of behind the scenes stuff that you did in this election.
00:45:23.700
On your own dime, I should say, that's not a thing.
00:45:30.200
And going to these different places, I mean, first of all, the amount of respect that you should have for candidates who do this day in and day out is really, really high.
00:45:37.760
Until you've been on a bus with one of these candidates just stopping place after place after place, you know, going to – with Sam Brown in Nevada and, you know, going around to three separate events where he has to tell his life story three separate times to three separate groups of people.
00:45:51.940
And these people put their lives on hold to go and do that sort of stuff because they're taking it upon themselves.
00:45:55.960
And by and large, they're not doing it because they're career politicians.
00:45:58.660
I mean, a lot of these people are incredibly successful in their day job.
00:46:06.500
These are people who have made it and they've decided they actually would like to give back to the country by going and doing this sort of stuff.
00:46:13.500
So, you know, we should give them – it should be hats off to a lot of these people.
00:46:20.600
They represent us and they're supposed to represent our values.
00:46:22.600
But these are people who legitimately take a better life and turn it in for a worse life in order to make the country better.
00:46:30.280
And that, I think, requires us to take our hats off to them.
00:46:34.400
Like, being out on the trail with these people is really, really cool.
00:46:41.740
Like, one that stands out was with Bernie Moreno in northern Ohio.
00:46:50.560
It's like 1,000 people in maybe a town of 2,000 people total.
00:46:59.860
And one of the people from the town gets up and says, we want to give you a present.
00:47:02.340
It's like, okay, well, you know, I've been to a lot of events where they give you a plaque or they give you, like, a piece of paper or something.
00:47:09.920
Because on October 7th, one of us was so, like, the day of October 7th, was so upset about that.
00:47:15.620
They took this giant Israeli flag, stuck it on the back of his Ford F-150 in a town that has zero Jews.
00:47:21.420
And started driving it around the town in solidarity with Jews and with Israel.
00:47:24.900
And people in the town were so moved that pretty much every member of the town signed the flag.
00:47:29.300
So, I have this flag signed by, like, 1,000 evangelical Christians and Catholics in northern Ohio.
00:47:41.520
This country is just, it's just effing fabulous.
00:47:45.740
And that's why it's so hard to watch when it's threatened by people who don't share any of those values and really think that Americans,
00:47:51.800
that those exact people are the bitter clingers, are the garbage, are the truly bad people, the bad guys in the story.
00:47:59.280
And that's why, you know, Donald Trump being a middle finger to those people is the thing that they deserve.
00:48:07.220
Speaking of which, by the way, Loudoun County, Loudoun County in Virginia, just had a nine-point swing right.
00:48:19.980
I mean, that is what you just described would happen in no other country, not only currently in the world, but in the history of the world.
00:48:26.520
There's not another country that would do that.
00:48:28.460
And so much of this garbage that gets thrown at these people about how nasty and hateful they are comes from this place of utter ignorance.
00:48:37.080
I mean, deep, enforced, chosen ignorance and arrogance that the ignorance sort of abets.
00:48:42.980
It's because they don't want to think of themselves as worse than anyone ever.
00:48:48.640
They've chosen not to know about anyone else ever in the history of the world.
00:48:52.220
And so, they look at people, you know, all of whom have their flaws and their foibles, Americans included, and they think, you know, oh, these backwards, hateful hicks, they're just, you know, spiteful Americans.
00:49:04.460
I challenge you to travel the world and find another country where that will happen, especially with the Jewish flag.
00:49:11.620
And Selena Zito has that thing where she goes out and she talks to people, and she found that no one else had done it.
00:49:16.640
No one else had talked to them and seen the lives they live, which are interracial and completely accepting of all different kinds of people.
00:49:24.600
From, like, the whitest areas of Ohio down to, I was on the border with Senator Cruz on Sunday night, and it's like the Rio Grande Valley, which is totally Hispanic, and everybody in the crowd is Hispanic.
00:49:32.420
Like, they have the same values because those values are the values of America, and the value is family, community, hard work, virtue.
00:49:39.080
Those are the values that built the country, and leave us the hell alone, combined with all those things, right, autonomy.
00:49:43.740
We're now joined here at Daily Wire HQ by Brent Buchanan of Signal Polling, the most well-respected polling outfit in America.
00:49:54.740
Obviously, you know, there's a danger for Republicans in getting high on their own supply.
00:49:57.860
You're kind of reading what's going on on Twitter.
00:49:59.760
What is sort of your overall early take on what you're seeing out of Georgia right now?
00:50:04.340
So there's a couple key counties to look at in Georgia.
00:50:06.780
I actually grew up in one of them, and that is Fayette County here.
00:50:11.380
And in 2016, Trump won this county by 21 points.
00:50:22.780
So when you're looking at a county like this, you're basically extrapolating this to, quote, the suburbs,
00:50:29.520
because this is on the south side of Atlanta, but it's, you know, a good 30 minutes outside of Atlanta.
00:50:35.080
But then you compare that to Baldwin County, Georgia, which in 2016, Trump lost it to Clinton by two.
00:50:46.940
And currently, Trump is plus six with 79% reporting.
00:50:51.180
So you start to see where you have these conflicting data points, some that are good for Trump, some that are good for Kamala Harris.
00:50:58.600
What's interesting is that the Georgia rurals are coming in pretty heavily Democratic on Election Day voting,
00:51:06.240
meaning that the people who turned up on Election Day to vote in the rural counties in Georgia are more Democratic than they normally would have been.
00:51:13.120
And then when you look at some of the performance of the black counties, if the county is about mid-sized,
00:51:21.200
it's performing pretty much like it did in 2020 right now.
00:51:25.680
And in the really heavy black counties, you're seeing actually a Trump underperformance.
00:51:30.040
So it's kind of a mixed bag right now in Georgia.
00:51:37.340
But the exit polls, take that for what it's worth, do show some signs of hope for Trump.
00:51:43.680
So when you look at all that, I know we're asking you now to project out into the future.
00:51:48.520
What are the indicators that you're going to look for as the vote starts to come in
00:51:52.340
that's going to give you a better idea of the picture that's emerging from this kind of chaotic data?
00:51:56.420
Well, we're definitely going to want to see what the northern arc counties,
00:51:59.340
so Cobb, Gwinnett, Fulton County, kind of the north end of Atlanta.
00:52:04.380
Those are the things you're going to be looking for.
00:52:09.380
And then we're going to continue to watch what the rural counties have done.
00:52:12.120
Because if you look in some other places like Indiana and Kentucky
00:52:18.900
the rurals are actually up in those places about 1% or 2% above their 2020 turnout percentages.
00:52:25.740
The question is, are the suburban counties and are the urban counties at or above 2020 turnout?
00:52:31.620
And we just don't have enough data in yet to answer that question.
00:52:34.380
So, I mean, that seems like a lot of the election is going to come down to precisely that question,
00:52:37.580
not just in Georgia, but all over the country, right?
00:52:39.560
Is the suburban vote up? Is the rural vote down?
00:52:42.700
Given what you're seeing in some of the other states,
00:52:44.620
so Florida, for what it's worth, was just called.
00:52:47.760
Trump is just blowing it out in Florida because Florida has turned into a deep red state
00:52:51.740
just over the course of the last couple of election cycles.
00:52:54.720
You know, there is this idea that there are these bellwether counties.
00:52:57.640
How much stock do you take in the idea that there are bellwether counties
00:53:00.680
where you can look at a county and then extrapolate that out nationally or to other swing states?
00:53:04.180
I think once we have 100% of the vote in on a, quote, bellwether county, we can extrapolate it.
00:53:09.500
But so far, there's not many in the country where we have 100% reporting yet.
00:53:13.840
But if you look at Osceola County as an example in Florida, that's north of Orlando.
00:53:19.280
It has, I believe, the highest percentage of Puerto Rican population as a percentage of the whole of the county.
00:53:30.620
One thing also to keep in mind about Florida is the fact that it has about a million more Republicans registered now
00:53:40.540
And so, to your point, it is no longer a purple or a swing state.
00:53:45.620
It is 100% a red state now, especially with those trends that you were talking about.
00:53:50.180
Speaking, again, I'm just going to keep mentioning because it's awesome.
00:53:52.400
Amendments 3 and Amendments 4, both likely to be dead in Florida.
00:53:57.040
Which means basically permanent Republican rule forever for the rest of the time.
00:54:01.760
A thousand-year reign of Ron DeSantis in Florida.
00:54:06.040
Well, I did want to ask you, Brent, about this sort of amazing statistic.
00:54:10.660
The Loudoun County in Virginia has moved really toward Trump a lot.
00:54:15.900
For not close washers of politics, you hear Loudoun County a lot because obviously it came up a lot in the gubernatorial race
00:54:23.120
What does that mean if Loudoun County moved right from the last election cycle?
00:54:26.660
So it moved right because you're seeing a depression of Democrat turnout there,
00:54:30.560
not because it has the same number of people who voted and they shifted their votes.
00:54:35.220
So that's definitely something to watch is what is that Democrat to Republican turnout ratio compared to the historical?
00:54:41.100
Virginia in general is actually having a higher election day turnout as a percentage of total votes than they have had in the past.
00:54:49.380
And they also count, the way Virginia goes is they count early votes first and then they report election day votes after that.
00:54:55.840
So I would expect to see that the dim turnout in that county goes up some.
00:54:59.900
But Loudoun County is actually 11% Indian, Asian, American population.
00:55:06.460
And so if that holds and Trump is doing better in a county like that,
00:55:11.460
it's going to be very indicative of some of these Sunbelt metro areas that have high Indian populations.
00:55:18.020
And if she can't juice them in Loudoun County outside of Washington, D.C.,
00:55:21.800
she's going to have trouble doing that in Atlanta, in Phoenix, and in some of these other—Raleigh, Durham is another one that has high Indian populations.
00:55:30.880
So Brent, obviously we're super early in the night.
00:55:33.260
Can you give us just like a quick preview into what sort of things you're going to be seeing over the next hour?
00:55:38.660
Which areas, which polls are closing and what's going to come out?
00:55:41.640
Yeah, we're going to learn a lot from North Carolina and Georgia because they're on the East Coast
00:55:46.400
and they're going to report earlier, they're going to report more often, and we're going to know who won those earliest.
00:55:54.200
And so a lot of these counties that we're watching, like Fayette, as an example, in Georgia,
00:55:58.500
that was very heavily Trump and has been slowly less Trump over time,
00:56:03.260
once that gets to 100% reporting, where does Trump stand?
00:56:07.400
And that'll give us a really good idea of what some of these swing state suburban counties are looking like.
00:56:12.380
But what we're seeing overall is that turnout is likely to exceed 2020,
00:56:17.700
which a lot of people said that if we even got to that point, that it would be historic.
00:56:22.380
And so we really find ourselves in this place where under 2020 turnout, it's 100% Trump win.
00:56:28.300
At 2020 turnout, a little bit of a Harris advantage.
00:56:31.780
You get above 2020 turnout and we're in unprecedented territory,
00:56:35.440
which it's kind of hard to see who that gives an advantage to
00:56:39.120
until we start to see some of this urban, rural, suburban turnout differential above.
00:56:46.960
We're going to be back with you in just a little while and keep these updates going.
00:56:50.440
Our election map coverage this evening is possible, is made possible by our sponsor, Lumen.
00:56:59.600
Can we, first of all, that wasn't positive enough.
00:57:02.800
So if we could not go back to him again, that'd be great.
00:57:04.580
But Florida, we talked about how great Florida is because it's deep red and all that.
00:57:10.700
Also, they're going to have all their votes counted soon.
00:57:14.800
And this is the third, I think the third most populated state in the country.
00:57:19.100
And so it's just like, there's no excuse why every other state in the country can't count all their votes if Florida can.
00:57:25.960
Florida is able to count their votes so quickly because Jeb Bush was their governor for eight years.
00:57:31.360
And then Ron DeSantis has been their governor for, what, the last six years.
00:57:36.160
And as it turns out, Republicans can figure out how to run elections.
00:57:41.180
Democrats in swing states cannot figure out how to run elections,
00:57:45.000
almost as though Democrats in swing states are incentivized not to figure out their elections.
00:57:50.780
You know, there's a lot of talk about how we shouldn't have voting machines.
00:57:53.760
And I remember when I used my first voting machine in California,
00:57:57.020
you would make your selections, and then the printout would happen.
00:58:01.320
And the printout was a sort of dot matrix barcode sort of situation.
00:58:04.460
You had no way of knowing what the printout said.
00:58:07.540
And so, again, as we discussed earlier, there's at least the opportunity for evil,
00:58:16.540
First of all, Tennessee has an amazing election.
00:58:18.760
The ballot was basically three pages, not one of these 75-page monstrosities.
00:58:23.660
There were three pages worth of things to vote on.
00:58:28.600
Like, Donald Trump, Marshall Blackburn, don't raise my taxes, and then hit print.
00:58:32.600
And when you hit print, it prints out the ballot for you to turn in.
00:58:37.160
And you can look at the ballot and see where it printed all of your selections.
00:58:42.580
It said, Donald Trump, Marshall Blackburn, don't raise my freaking taxes and stop asking me.
00:58:49.000
So there was no opportunity, even with an electronic system,
00:58:54.020
The electronic system was just a different way of arriving at a printed ballot
00:59:00.680
Again, there's no reason why any state in America can't be doing that.
00:59:05.100
It's every other country on Earth that has free, legal, democratic voting.
00:59:14.440
did you confuse with three countries that run democratic elections?
00:59:18.520
You know, I have to say, I'm watching the vote in Virginia,
00:59:36.680
The counties that are open are right in the middle of the state.
00:59:40.160
You know, Katie Gorka, who is both the brains and beauty of the Gorka organization,
00:59:45.900
is working very hard in Fairfax County and doing just an amazing job,
00:59:52.840
She believes if she can bring out enough people,
00:59:54.560
that will, you know, obviously feed into a Trump victory.
01:00:01.320
including go to the Supreme Court to make sure the integrity is good.
01:00:05.020
I voted in the bluest of the blue parts of the state.
01:00:12.580
You know, there's absolutely no question of identity or anything like that.
01:00:23.640
I will not be bowled over if the state that elected Glenn Youngkin,
01:00:34.100
Well, in fairness, our very own Matt Walsh and our very own...
01:00:39.900
Who's our wonderful reporter who broke the loudness?
01:00:46.320
Goodness, we've been on the air only two hours.
01:00:48.780
Luke Rosiak actually is the reason that Florida became a potentially red state.
01:00:59.000
that an error in either direction could result in a very wild swing.
01:01:07.160
And we should keep in mind that in many of these states,
01:01:09.420
the system is sort of rigged to look like it is rigged.
01:01:12.440
By that, I mean they tend to count in-person votes first,
01:01:17.920
And then after that, they start bringing in the early and absentee mail-in ballots,
01:01:25.600
And so you end up in this situation where it looks like we're winning,
01:01:28.520
and then they suddenly discover all the ballots,
01:01:32.600
which, again, gives the appearance of evil and the opportunity for evil.
01:01:37.140
Something about this election that makes it so hard,
01:01:39.500
I'm sure for the pollsters, who are all being risk-averse
01:01:42.120
and basically saying, oh, it's a coin toss, don't yell at me.
01:01:45.060
But something that makes it really difficult to model out this election for anyone
01:01:58.180
And this election is being conducted differently even than 2020.
01:02:01.660
So, for instance, early voting and mail-in voting usually gives a big advantage to Democrats.
01:02:08.940
This year, looking at early voting out of Nevada,
01:02:15.220
It's just unpleasant for pundits and pollsters to say.
01:02:20.200
I mean, maybe the only case that I thought should have been adjudicated
01:02:26.120
was the case in Pennsylvania where they changed the rules against their own constitution.
01:02:37.600
And I think that the GOP has been much more on top of that leading up to it.
01:02:44.940
I mean, as many people have said, you know, it's easier to put a car together before it falls off a cliff.
01:02:49.520
And I think that that was what they were doing after the last election.
01:02:52.320
And I think the GOP needs some praise there for actually paying attention,
01:02:56.460
manning the barricades, making sure the legal eyes were dotted.
01:03:00.020
And I think that's really happened to some degree.
01:03:01.440
I'll add, too, I spoke to hundreds of voters in states like Georgia and in Michigan and Pennsylvania.
01:03:08.100
And one of the questions I asked all of them was, how do you feel about your vote this year?
01:03:11.980
How do you feel about the integrity of this election?
01:03:14.080
And I can't tell you how many of them brought up the fact that the RNC and that Donald Trump
01:03:17.860
were pouring resources in to having poll watchers.
01:03:20.760
And that message is trickling down to the average voter,
01:03:23.620
where you might think there'd be a fear of them saying, well,
01:03:25.960
if you really think that the election was right last time, why would you vote this time?
01:03:29.040
But that messaging from the top, they are aware on the ground that the RNC has invested so many
01:03:35.400
And I do think that contributes to, you know, higher turnout than we might have seen.
01:03:42.000
Do you think you're getting random selections of voting?
01:03:46.320
So in all the states I went to, we would go to different grocery stores, gas stations,
01:03:52.840
So I'd pull up data from different counties in 2020.
01:03:55.540
And we'd try and get as representative a sample as possible.
01:03:58.300
And to our conversation about the polls, like why it's so difficult to get an accurate
01:04:03.120
representation, I think that even after eight years, you might get this idea that, oh, well,
01:04:15.060
I actually got to the point after all these interviews where I could tell who someone was
01:04:19.100
voting for based on how they shot me down when I requested an interview.
01:04:22.240
So about two thirds of people wouldn't talk to me.
01:04:27.520
Two thirds would say no, but I'd still ask all those people, well, who are you voting
01:04:32.320
The people who initially said, oh, I'm in a rush or I can't talk.
01:04:38.900
The people who said, I don't want to talk to you.
01:04:41.360
You're a medium person or I don't want to talk on camera.
01:04:47.660
I had an 80 year old lady who accosted our camera guy, making sure that the camera was
01:04:58.980
And these were in fairly red areas in Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan.
01:05:02.920
And so I do think there is still a sizable chunk of people who would not, with a gun to
01:05:07.100
their head, tell a pollster who they're voting for.
01:05:11.500
Trump is now within 2% in Virginia, with 36% in.
01:05:18.720
I don't actually, you know, I look at the RCP things.
01:05:23.680
Yeah, not to belabor the point, but Florida has 88% of their votes counted.
01:05:36.720
By the way, I just was thinking, if I may inject the absurd, because it's such a serious
01:05:43.840
evening, that the Daily Wire evening does not function as baseball does.
01:05:51.160
When you are removed, you can return to the game.
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And as we've heard, a lot of the data is conflicting, but there's every reason for a
01:07:30.520
I stepped out a bit ago, and we have a wonderful party taking place immediately outside the studio
01:07:35.700
where a lot of our sort of friends of the Daily Wire, you know, people who live here in Tennessee,
01:07:40.420
some of our family, even some influencers who came in from around the country,
01:07:44.340
are together having camaraderie, watching the results.
01:07:47.600
And someone asked me, you know, how are you feeling?
01:07:55.160
Also, I think one of the reasons that we've been able to be successful in business
01:07:57.980
is because, as a general rule, I always take the position that we're a point behind.
01:08:04.120
In every success, I'm the wrong guy to have in the room.
01:08:07.340
Sometimes they'll come to me and they'll say, hey, we really need you to give a pep talk
01:08:12.140
And my pep talk always goes something like, you know, we could have done better.
01:08:18.500
So I'm not one generally for being overly optimistic, but I do think there's conscious optimism.
01:08:23.900
So they're out there, they're drinking Maga-Ritas, I just saw.
01:08:27.100
And so then I was wondering, if Trump does win, I think I will have a glass of the scotch
01:08:33.580
And if Trump loses, I think I will drink gasoline.
01:08:40.760
If Trump wins, I will drink anything you give me, which is more than I have drunk in 50 years.
01:09:02.080
I said after 2016, for years, in speeches, on the radio, that the night Trump won might
01:09:16.180
And I would add, including the birth of my two sons.
01:09:24.160
The left went, Prager is so evil that he was happier when Trump won than when his own sons
01:09:36.920
You know, this may have been covered while I was out, but I'm only just now seeing that
01:09:43.220
West Virginia Governor Jim Justice won his state Senate race, which is the first flip of a seat
01:09:49.900
We've been talking about how important it is that we hold the Senate.
01:09:53.380
Whether the result of the presidential election goes our way or not, the Senate is of vital
01:09:59.960
importance, either for stymieing the Harris agenda or advancing the Trump agenda.
01:10:06.400
So picking up a seat in West Virginia with Jim Justice is a great step.
01:10:10.780
You know, had we lost that seat, we could all go home.
01:10:17.300
Is there a state that you guys, who I do believe are more expertise in the political realm,
01:10:24.820
have more expertise, is there a state, I mean, don't say California or New York,
01:10:29.800
I mean, a real, a possible state that if you learned now, went for Trump...
01:10:39.660
Certainly, if he won Virginia, I think we could go home.
01:10:43.440
I will say that I was just at the Daily Wire party, as I said, and our dear friend Siaka,
01:10:48.760
a.k.a. Black Jeremy, did tell me he thinks there's a chance New York goes for Trump.
01:10:54.080
So I don't want you to think that no one is sanguine.
01:11:01.180
It's now 48.5 for Trump, 49.8 for Kamala Harris, with the poll, 37% of the votes.
01:11:07.640
I just want to say, I think we can go home now.
01:11:16.500
What we were talking about with some of the Senate races, there are some real opportunities.
01:11:22.940
I mean, Wisconsin, look, that's going to depend a little bit on the top of the ticket, too.
01:11:33.340
I even feel pretty good about Mike Rogers in Michigan.
01:11:38.260
The odds are still stacked against him in Michigan.
01:11:44.000
I think that Bernie Moreno has run a great Republican campaign.
01:11:47.800
I think that there is a chance that Sherrod Brown loses.
01:11:52.400
I would put more money on Hovde than I would on Moreno.
01:11:59.540
You know, Michigan has trended a little bit blue.
01:12:01.680
But I think Mike Rogers has run a good campaign.
01:12:03.140
Michael, I have to say, to that point, the Rogers-Slacken race...
01:12:05.600
I saw an all-time troll billboard in this race.
01:12:11.220
You know, all around, every single sign is in Arabic.
01:12:14.000
And there's all the flags for different countries.
01:12:16.300
In the heart of Dearborn is a giant billboard with a picture of Kamala Harris and Slacken
01:12:24.520
And it says, Kamala and Slacken, always friends of Israel.
01:12:31.580
And the bottom says something like, you know, paid for by friends of Harris.
01:12:33.940
And it says, these women have always and always will stand with Israel.
01:12:39.020
And I saw it and initially thought, does the Harris campaign have the worst strategy ever
01:12:44.420
And I looked it up later, and it was a Republican PAC.
01:12:47.440
You know, just to add to Matt's, keep his mood up because he gets depressed.
01:12:52.540
But my friend, Jeff Anderson of the American Main Street Initiative, he was one of Trump's
01:13:01.520
And we've been talking every Sunday, basically.
01:13:05.940
And tonight he said his prediction is that Trump has a 55% chance of winning the election.
01:13:10.840
He's a very good poll watcher and quite has not been optimistic.
01:13:16.940
By my math, though, Drew, I'm not a poll watcher either.
01:13:19.780
That means that Trump has a 45% chance of losing.
01:13:27.160
I don't even know what I'm looking at, but it's virtually tied.
01:13:30.860
And do you think four years ago at this point it would have been different?
01:13:45.120
Yeah, and I'm looking at the most blue states, blue districts are in.
01:14:01.220
You can't call, but I do like you declaring it.
01:14:09.560
Is there a state that if it goes blue or if it goes red, you think it might be?
01:14:13.220
I really, I know what I know and I don't, I know what I don't know, which is a gift in
01:14:22.380
So I, my read, my inclination is always the forest, not the trees.
01:14:30.960
So I, I do believe I understand the currents shaping the West in general and America specifically,
01:14:37.300
but the question of what state will do what or what state matters to make the call that
01:14:44.780
I, I asked it to you, not because I had one in mind.
01:14:49.600
I really wanted to know if you had one in mind, because then I'll watch that state avidly.
01:14:55.040
But so, and you all seem, or at least the majority seem to say Virginia.
01:15:00.260
But that, because that's such a reach, I mean, if, if, if Wisconsin came in and Trump
01:15:04.840
won Wisconsin and we took the Senate seat and that, that, that I think is more realistic
01:15:10.340
and I would feel really good going into the rest of the night.
01:15:14.700
On the, on the other side of that, if Donald Trump loses North Carolina, it isn't impossible
01:15:21.160
for him to win the presidency, but I think that it would be almost impossible, not, not
01:15:26.260
even necessarily because of the electoral math, but because it's indicative, it would
01:15:32.700
That would be a terrible thing for us to see early in the evening.
01:15:35.220
So is North Carolina determined by Roley Durham?
01:15:39.640
Because I don't know what else, what, what am I missing?
01:15:44.740
Oh, wait, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill.
01:15:47.680
So right, Chapel Hill, is that what it's called?
01:15:49.500
And so it's all, the big university towns are, are, have been poisoned by the university.
01:15:58.520
So that's it basically, because I can't imagine the rest of North Carolina is Democrat.
01:16:05.000
Well, I think, yeah, Mecklenburg County is another big one there to watch where Charlotte
01:16:10.320
I agree with you that I think from an electoral standpoint, you can pick up 16 electoral votes
01:16:14.820
with Nevada and Arizona, which you could well do, or Georgia's 16 as well as North
01:16:18.180
Carolina, but it's more about what it would mean and the indication.
01:16:23.500
And the black vote there is another one that I think is interesting to keep an eye on.
01:16:27.760
They have the eighth highest rate of black voters in the entire country, Georgia's third.
01:16:32.160
So I'm interested to see the turnout of black men in Georgia and the Atlanta area compared
01:16:38.040
Also, North Carolina, sorry, just before we go off North Carolina, another reason why
01:16:43.160
that'd be a bad sign is that, you know, and we moved on from it in like 45 seconds, like
01:16:49.380
But in North Carolina, that's where the Biden-Harris administration had their Hurricane Katrina
01:16:56.260
And if there's no price to pay for that at all, like for George Bush, that was a major
01:17:05.480
And if there's just no price to pay for that, that you could have that kind of devastation
01:17:10.800
in American communities or basically abandoned by the federal government.
01:17:15.880
If there is no price, it reinforces the point I made two hours ago when I was on, and that
01:17:24.380
is the ability of the press to brainwash even in a free society, which was revelatory to
01:17:29.820
me because my field of study was Soviet affairs.
01:17:32.020
I learned Russian to read Pravda, the communist paper, and it was a given to me that you could
01:17:43.420
I know for a fact you can brainwash people in a free society.
01:17:47.140
The fact that the press made a big deal about Katrina and nothing about this shows you how
01:17:53.420
profoundly the press will influence people even when it happens to them.
01:18:02.540
The press defines reality for the people who lived the reality, not just for the people
01:18:14.740
A little interruption for some results out of Georgia.
01:18:17.280
Georgia, it continues to trend in Trump's favor right now.
01:18:28.360
I believe an hour ago, Decision Desk HQ, our partners here, gave Trump something like a 69%
01:18:45.660
And North Carolina right now actually trending in Harris's direction, 51-47, but that's only
01:18:53.180
I mean, they're just getting started in North Carolina.
01:18:55.580
Trump is now ahead in Virginia, but the Times are saying that they believe that race leans
01:18:59.620
toward Harris because of the remaining votes favor him.
01:19:02.680
Matt, to your point about North Carolina and the devastation there, I was on the ground two
01:19:06.220
weeks ago in Swannanoa, Asheville, the surrounding communities there.
01:19:10.840
The devastation, I mean, still a month and a half later, most Americans have forgotten about it.
01:19:14.600
And the federal government also seems to have in many ways.
01:19:17.060
But the amount of people I talked to on the ground there about the election, and these
01:19:20.080
were in very red areas, Asheville, obviously very liberal, but the surrounding counties,
01:19:23.400
those were some of the reddest in the entire state.
01:19:25.740
None of them had even thought about the election.
01:19:28.600
When I asked them, hey, do you know if you're polling locations damaged?
01:19:32.440
But they were all like, oh, I forgot that there's even an election going on.
01:19:36.620
And so I'll be very interested to see what the voter turnout looks like in those counties.
01:19:40.780
Not necessarily because they aren't able physically to vote, because I did hear on the ground
01:19:45.620
from a number of Republican officials that they were getting the voting centers operational,
01:19:50.140
but that they're so devastated by other things that it's just the last thing on their mind
01:19:55.760
And is it still, the area still looks like a disaster zone, or what does it look like?
01:19:59.860
Yes, it was a disaster zone in entire communities.
01:20:06.220
So right now, it's still, they were just wrapping up the recovery of bodies when I was there.
01:20:11.640
So I went out with a team of cadaver dogs, with a group of veterans there.
01:20:16.360
Do the people have any resentment towards the federal government, or how do they feel?
01:20:20.440
I expected that there would be more, to be totally honest.
01:20:22.820
I expected there would be more when I got there.
01:20:24.520
And any time I brought up their opinion of the federal government, or their opinion of
01:20:28.360
the Biden-Harris administration, they, with the exception of one or two people, they just
01:20:33.060
said, I don't want to talk about politics right now.
01:20:35.020
They said, I lost my neighbor, or my house got destroyed.
01:20:44.660
But for the people who were actually hit, I didn't get the sense that they were thinking
01:20:50.180
Although I will say, I talked to a number of victims who said it was five or six days
01:20:53.960
before they met a single government aid worker, and that the only people helping them, it
01:20:58.200
was the Redneck Air Force that I was embedded with for a day, veterans who just flew out Chinook
01:21:02.700
helicopters that were private to run recovery missions.
01:21:06.260
Those were the people that were on the ground first.
01:21:07.700
And remember how Bush was excoriated, because he only flew over New Orleans at first?
01:21:12.040
Like, Biden didn't show up at all, I don't think.
01:21:15.160
And Kamala did that ridiculous, you know, camera.
01:21:18.160
Which, by the way, flying over it is a totally sensible thing to do.
01:21:26.680
Kamala made no attempt to even pretend to care.
01:21:29.100
So some numbers also coming out from the New York Times.
01:21:31.980
My favorite thing to do on election night is to look at the liberal websites and outlets.
01:21:38.720
So right now, the Times says it's still a toss-up, obviously.
01:21:48.760
The New York Times is giving Trump a 59% chance of winning, Harris a 41% chance.
01:21:53.320
What matters here is that it's trending in Trump's direction.
01:21:58.440
The New York Times is predicting a Trump victory?
01:22:01.060
Though it says it's a toss-up, but they're giving a clear, a decisive chance.
01:22:12.120
I really want to know why he stopped drinking before we take him up.
01:22:17.340
I've just become so violent when I would sit on a table at the bell.
01:22:30.540
I was wondering why everybody at the party is naked now.
01:22:36.260
So I want to take a few questions from our Daily Wire Plus members.
01:22:40.520
The first one here, Drew, I'll ask this one of you.
01:22:43.460
If Kamala loses, does she 25th Amendment Biden and become president for the remaining three months of his term?
01:22:52.680
I mean, the country seems to be running perfectly as well as it was.
01:23:02.140
And so obviously it's being run by a cabal of leftist bureaucrats, you know, secretly manipulated by the Machiavellian Barack Obama from the cellar or something like that.
01:23:13.440
And so I don't think they want to do anything that dramatic.
01:23:15.880
I actually do believe if Trump wins convincingly, there will be wiser heads on the left who start to understand that they are seen that when they try to silence us, they are seen trying to silence us, which was not true five years ago.
01:23:30.200
I do think that it's true, and Ben said this yesterday while we were on TimCast IRL together, that the left, you have to give them credit for being professional at politics.
01:23:39.540
And they are willing to run more moderate campaigns if they think that that's the path to power.
01:23:46.060
You know, in my lifetime, I mean, by today's standards, Bill Clinton was basically a Republican president, particularly during his first term.
01:23:52.060
You know, he famously said the era of big government is over.
01:23:55.000
They're willing to do that if that's what it takes to win.
01:23:57.260
But, you know, when you get to the stakes in the election, I just want, you know, why do I want Donald Trump to win?
01:24:03.880
I mean, obviously, I liked not being engaged in wars.
01:24:07.220
I like decisive action to actually defeat ISIS.
01:24:19.220
But I really want Trump to win more than anything for these two reasons.
01:24:23.340
I want the left to have to wake up in four years and see Donald Trump leave office.
01:24:30.260
Because they've essentially said that he won't.
01:24:34.480
If he comes into power, it's the end of everything.
01:24:36.660
So in the same way that I want to get to whatever the day is when it's too late to save the planet from global warming,
01:24:44.320
Like, either way, they have to stop talking about it.
01:24:46.920
But the number one reason I want Donald Trump to win is because I want an end.
01:24:57.960
Barack Obama has essentially been the power in the Democrat Party for the last 16 years.
01:25:04.220
The reason he was so quick to advance Kamala Harris for this role is because she's a vacuous, brain-dead,
01:25:15.300
I mean, she literally is the non-person player or whatever, the non-person character.
01:25:20.740
Which means that Barack Obama just gets four more years of essentially being the most powerful person,
01:25:26.120
not vested with the power of constitutional authority,
01:25:29.360
but vested with just the power of influential authority in that party.
01:25:34.960
If you defeat Kamala Harris now, in four years, the Democrats are going to have to run an actual candidate.
01:25:39.820
And an actual candidate will have their own opinions and their own ideas and won't just be a puppet for Barack Obama and his former staff.
01:25:48.480
That's why Barack Obama doesn't want that to happen.
01:25:50.440
It's why he wanted Joe Biden, even though he hates Joe Biden.
01:25:53.160
But he liked the fact that Joe Biden was already dead.
01:25:55.540
He likes the fact that Kamala Harris is maybe has never been alive.
01:25:59.800
So it would just delight me if we no longer had Barack Obama.
01:26:03.760
The chief reason I would want to see Trump win, there are many, many reasons you named most of them,
01:26:07.520
but the chief one is because without violence and without violating the First Amendment,
01:26:12.000
I want the news media to know how much we despise them, how much we distrust them, how much we see them lying.
01:26:18.500
I do not know how to send that message any better than to reelect Donald Trump and to say, you know what?
01:26:28.400
So was the question raised, if she loses, would they make her president for the last three months?
01:26:43.800
So I had a thought on that, that it would be in our interest that she were president for three months,
01:26:54.500
then they can never say again, the first black woman president.
01:27:00.420
They would have lost that idiotic, pointless...
01:27:05.560
If there's something I loathe, it is tribalism.
01:27:09.160
I remember when a beautiful human being, Joe Lieberman, was named vice presidential candidate under Al Gore.
01:27:29.820
And one of my relatives, who was a very, very bright and wonderful human being, said,
01:27:37.480
A Jew vice president of the United States, and you're voting for the Republicans?
01:27:43.760
And I didn't bother arguing, but I realized I don't think that way.
01:27:49.100
I don't believe I need to look like my leaders.
01:27:52.700
I don't believe I need to be the same ethnic group or religious group.
01:27:57.360
There is no part of me that understands why that is a beautiful idea.
01:28:02.900
But, Dennis, don't you think that Valium-addicted, brain-dead, young women of mixed ethnicity deserve to see a president who looks like them?
01:28:17.000
I'm starting to get certain insinuations out of your commentary.
01:28:23.460
Well, we want a Supreme Court that looks like America.
01:28:30.560
Wait, I know I'm one of the 10 million people who've asked this question, but it's nevertheless worth asking.
01:28:37.820
Does anybody rooting for their NBA team care if the team looks like him?
01:28:44.560
That's not what they want anyway, because it looks like America means that any institution is 13% black, and they want it to be a lot more than that.
01:28:50.740
But if we go around the table to talk about why we want Trump to win, and we've already covered a lot of the good reasons, but I also think it'll just be hilarious if Trump goes 2-0 against female candidates.
01:29:02.540
If the first two female presidential candidates are defeated by Donald Trump...
01:29:10.300
That sort of relates to Jeremy's a little, because that was a really insightful point, Jeremy, when you said, I want Trump to win so that the Democrats, so we can all see the day when he leaves office and that will prove them wrong.
01:29:23.840
I want Trump to be president so that he declares himself Caesar and reigns forever, and then Barron will take over after him, and we will have a glorious Fox Trumpana that will augur great goods for the world.
01:29:40.880
We're going to take a minute to show you some of the cool stuff going on here at Daily Wire, and we will be right back.
01:29:46.980
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01:29:51.000
This company represents a whole new generation.
01:29:53.380
We're building alternatives, and the alternatives are working.
01:29:59.060
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01:30:16.840
We decided to spend $100 million making Kids Contents.
01:30:24.040
We're going to knock it out of the park, and no one else is going to do it.
01:30:37.560
It really has been an unbelievable four years since the last presidential election.
01:30:41.200
If you'll recall, four days after the 2020 election, we moved the Daily Wire out of Los Angeles, which had been my home for 20 years.
01:30:50.640
Ben's home his entire life, except for that brief stint at Harvard.
01:30:56.220
And we moved to Nashville, our adopted home, home of the company, with a great governor in Bill Lee, a great attorney general, great state government here.
01:31:06.340
A real welcoming red state, even though, of course, Davidson County is a blue county.
01:31:12.200
And in that time, on election night 2020, we announced that we were first moving into entertainment, and we've really accomplished an incredible amount since that time.
01:31:20.580
Not only has Matt, I think, made the two most important documentaries, basically, of my lifetime, not only have we made movies with Gina Carano, made, you know, acquired the rights from Dallas Sonier and Bonfire Legend to the remarkable Run-Hide Fight, but we also have made the Pendragon Cycle, which will be launching next year.
01:31:38.700
We brought you Bent Key, our children's app, which is one of the things that we're the most proud of.
01:31:42.540
All of this work is made possible by our Daily Wire members.
01:31:45.340
We'll be taking more questions from them throughout the evening.
01:31:47.240
If you're not a member, please consider becoming one.
01:31:51.100
If you use promo code FIGHT at dailywireplus.com slash subscribe, you will get 47% off.
01:31:56.880
47% because we hope that Donald Trump is the 47th president.
01:32:00.760
I recognize that there is some risk in the promo code, and believe you me, if the night doesn't go the way we want, we will change the promo code very, very quickly.
01:32:11.900
They're putting Trump's chances in North Carolina at 73%.
01:32:25.800
Those RCP averages had Trump at plus 8 and Rick Scott at plus 4.5.
01:32:35.920
Let me just tell you how much Florida kicks ass, okay?
01:32:39.340
Florida put up four constitutional referendum, abortion on demand, and legalized marijuana, and both went down in flaming defeat.
01:32:48.700
I'm pretty amazed that—you know, I thought the abortion one would go down.
01:32:53.380
Well, so, again, DeSantis got on his horse, and he, like, actually did the work in that state.
01:32:57.820
And Brian Kemp, by the way, did that in Georgia, too.
01:33:00.360
Like, seriously, full credit to Brian Kemp, who Trump crapped upon for literally years.
01:33:06.560
And Brian Kemp went out, and he's been stumping for Trump.
01:33:15.420
We've talked about Donald Trump, you know, forgiving his enemies and people who have opposed him.
01:33:20.700
There are a lot of people who, you know, Donald Trump did not treat amazingly well over the course of the last few years who have shown up for him.
01:33:26.440
I mean, we all remember he didn't treat Ron DeSantis particularly well.
01:33:29.020
DeSantis went out, and he worked very, very hard for Donald Trump in the state of Florida.
01:33:38.320
I had him on my show today, and I almost never have politicians on.
01:33:45.720
They run the gamut like any other group of human beings.
01:34:10.940
And it's—again, I think that as far as scum-sucking bottom dwellers go, Ted is tops.
01:34:23.600
I mean, for one thing, there has been an enormous shift in Texas.
01:34:27.120
And the shift in Texas is not that they've imported a bunch of Californians.
01:34:30.760
As it turns out, the Californians they've imported are largely conservative.
01:34:37.500
They've had it now for so long that it is beginning to erode Texas.
01:34:41.620
It's not—I mean, it is still decidedly a red state, but it is purpling up.
01:34:45.860
And Ted was trailing behind Trump in the state in poll after poll.
01:34:50.900
The Democrats decided to run Colin Allred, who is something of a cultural figure.
01:34:54.740
He was obviously a Tennessee Titan NFL football player.
01:34:58.020
So the kind of guy who could get some sizzle down in Texas.
01:35:02.660
And it became the most expensive Senate race in the country.
01:35:06.560
They spent an enormous amount of money trying to unseat Ted.
01:35:10.060
And one of the reasons Ted is vulnerable is because Trump kind of shibbed him at the RNC, you know, back in 2016.
01:35:17.000
And because Ted has played so hard himself with people like Mitch McConnell and his colleagues in the Senate
01:35:23.780
that they didn't give him a lot of support from the institution in this race.
01:35:27.840
And so I do think that at the beginning of this race, and even as recently as six weeks ago,
01:35:34.880
there was a lot of very concerning polling for Ted coming out of Texas.
01:35:40.640
I got to get involved in that race, actually, in my own way, not as a representative of the Daily Wire,
01:35:45.280
but as a friend of Ted Cruz, and I wrote an ad for him, which I think turned out maybe to be the ad,
01:35:54.400
the state-level ad that had the most money spent on it out of any race in the country this year.
01:36:02.500
It was the ad where Colin Allred tackles a little girl on the football field
01:36:13.860
But it turns out it was very effective, and the Super PAC spent a lot of money on it,
01:36:20.860
And I think that Ted has run a great campaign in Texas,
01:36:25.940
and I do not think he goes into the evening tonight in trouble.
01:36:29.340
It would be, in fact, I'll go so far to say, I think that if Ted Cruz loses his race in Texas,
01:36:34.880
Kamala Harris is going to win the presidency, they're going to win the Senate, they're going to win that.
01:36:38.700
Whereas I don't know that that was necessarily the case, even as recently as eight weeks ago.
01:36:47.840
And Ben campaigned with him two days ago in McHale.
01:36:50.780
Yeah, like massive, massive energy for Ted Cruz.
01:36:53.300
By the way, one piece of interesting NBC exit poll.
01:36:55.600
Again, always with the proviso that exit polls are chicken entrails.
01:36:59.220
But the Pennsylvania Independent Voter exit poll out of NBC News, Trump 50, Harris 44.
01:37:05.020
If that holds, Trump's going to win Pennsylvania.
01:37:10.740
Well, meanwhile, Brent Buchanan from Signal, he is with us and he has some updates from Georgia.
01:37:17.020
Brent, tell us all about what's happening in Georgia as more of the vote is coming in.
01:37:22.080
Well, we're starting to see some of the northern counties begin to report, which is what we had talked about earlier.
01:37:28.100
And so we look at places like Cobb County, Georgia here is beginning to report.
01:37:34.660
So this is a very large county that in the past has voted for Joe Biden.
01:37:42.700
So this was a seat that or a county that Joe Biden won by 14 points.
01:37:49.460
And you can see that currently he is doing some quick math here.
01:37:55.260
She's currently up by 16 points or she's up by 16 points in this seat.
01:37:59.820
So one of the biggest trends that we're beginning to see across Georgia specifically is that there are some places where she's doing better.
01:38:11.540
But then you're starting to see some of these rural counties come in also, too.
01:38:15.260
And so we've got Forsyth County here as an example.
01:38:18.980
And this is a county that Trump won by 33 points.
01:38:30.040
So you can see you've got kind of a counterbalance effect here of two northern arc Georgia counties.
01:38:36.420
Red America is getting redder and blue America is getting bluer is what this tells me.
01:38:41.120
And then you throw in, again, let's go back to Fayette County that we were talking about earlier.
01:38:54.200
And so if we're talking about blue and red America, Fayette County is the county in between blue and red America.
01:39:02.720
So overall, we're seeing a lot of the same trends and that the rurals are doing better.
01:39:06.980
But this partisanship gap of if you were in a blue county, you're getting you're voting even more heavily blue, at least in the swing states.
01:39:16.100
And again, I go back to what you brought up in the last segment talking about Loudoun County.
01:39:20.600
That's a really interesting place because they had 220,000 votes in 2020.
01:39:31.020
And it looks to have almost come exclusively off of the back of Kamala Harris.
01:39:35.300
And so Donald Trump is performing at his ballot share, actually a little bit above the ballot share that he got in 2020 in a county like that.
01:39:45.680
And then you combine that with Florida, which is just wildly red.
01:39:48.460
And you begin to see how the national polling has showed a very tight presidential race.
01:39:55.060
And we saw a lot of this in 2022 also, where Republicans were at plus two nationally on the generic ballot and ended up in that place and then just barely won the House of Representatives.
01:40:06.200
And so I don't think this election is turning out so far to look much like 2020 or even 2016.
01:40:13.640
It's got a lot of 2022 vibes to it, at least that we're starting to see come in.
01:40:17.840
And that's very strong Republican votes, but it's not showing up evenly across the country.
01:40:24.340
And so I'm really interested to see what other states that aren't like a Florida as they come in.
01:40:30.160
You know, we're sitting here at Georgia in total of about 63 percent reporting.
01:40:36.760
This margin continues to get closer as the votes are counted.
01:40:40.920
And I think this is going to be a really indicative state as we begin to go through the night.
01:40:46.400
But again, it feels a whole lot like 2022 right now where Republicans are performing very strongly, but it's not necessarily netting us yet in the places that we need it to net us vote.
01:40:58.900
It's just increasing our margins in places like Florida and Loudoun County that actually don't matter that much overall.
01:41:04.680
Well, let's talk about sort of, you know, the question of voting by race.
01:41:08.580
We've seen some exit polls that show that Trump is performing strongly so far in Hispanic districts.
01:41:13.900
There was an exit poll that somebody had cited earlier that suggested that he was doing well with black men in Georgia.
01:41:20.740
Do we know yet in terms of exit polling or any other data what the turnout looks like racially in a state like Georgia, which is obviously a very heavily demographically black state?
01:41:29.200
Yeah, a lot of those counties haven't reported yet, especially the rural black counties.
01:41:34.620
So if we come down to some of these counties down here, so Coffey County, we can look at some of the census data of what this looks like.
01:41:44.960
What's really interesting is that this county actually looks a whole lot, at least racially, like the state of Georgia.
01:41:52.020
It does over-index on Hispanic and under-index Asian, but it gets the black percentage about right when you're thinking about what the voting population is going to be.
01:42:02.260
And then as we look at the results for Coffey County, it hadn't come in at all.
01:42:06.100
So there's just several places where there's not a ton of votes.
01:42:09.780
I mean, they're expecting, what, 16,000 votes here for Coffey County as an example.
01:42:14.100
But there's just a lot of holes in the map still.
01:42:16.640
And even when we look at places like Fulton County here, 74 percent reporting, I mean, this is turning out pretty much like you would project.
01:42:25.840
So this Fulton County is Atlanta and then goes into Buckhead and a little bit further north into that top part there that you see.
01:42:34.700
And so I would say we're still pretty early in the night.
01:42:38.240
If we're going to say that there are good Republican data points and good Democrat data points, if I had to compare the two, I would say that there are more good Republican data points so far coming in.
01:42:48.460
And they tend to look like it's trending even more so that direction.
01:42:51.820
We do have a couple of calls from the Associated Press.
01:42:54.660
The Associated Press is saying that Virginia is going to go for Kamala Harris.
01:42:57.440
And they are also suggesting that, I believe, what was the other state?
01:43:03.200
There's another state they just called for Kamala Harris, Illinois, I believe, Massachusetts, New Hampshire.
01:43:08.620
New Hampshire is the one that, that was sort of my outlier.
01:43:12.380
My map was, in my dream map, he wins New Hampshire.
01:43:15.820
They've called New Hampshire for Kamala Harris as well.
01:43:24.240
Those dreams have been dashed of New Hampshire turning red.
01:43:30.380
So we can't really look into it and say what happened.
01:43:33.540
I think it's just if you're looking at states that aren't actually that competitive and have not had hundreds of millions of dollars spent on them,
01:43:41.420
they're kind of performing like you would expect them to perform.
01:43:45.200
Not a lot of money was spent in Florida this go around.
01:43:47.820
And I think that depresses the Democrat and left-leaning non-affiliated voter turnout there.
01:43:53.500
In a place like New Hampshire, there's just, there wasn't much advertising.
01:43:57.440
We did a huge study in 2022 after the election and looked at where large amounts of spendings went compared to races that didn't have a lot of spending.
01:44:07.380
And you saw, if it was a red seat and it didn't have any spending, you actually saw severe drops in Democratic turnout because they had no reason to show up.
01:44:17.020
Like they knew it was going to be a guaranteed victory.
01:44:19.920
And so places like New Hampshire are a really good example where not a whole lot of money spent, not even a ton of money in the congressional races comparatively were spent.
01:44:28.520
And so it's just giving you what you would expect it to give you in a final result.
01:44:33.680
Well, Brent Buchanan will check back in shortly.
01:44:35.140
Our election map coverage this evening is made possible by our sponsor, Lumen.
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01:44:43.160
It's interesting that, you know, Trump is running ahead of Kamala in Virginia.
01:44:49.200
And the Times is saying that it still leans her way, but they're not saying she...
01:44:54.000
Well, I mean, they've actually called, I mean, the AP called it for her.
01:44:56.560
I mean, look, but that's why, again, we're the amateurs.
01:44:59.040
I mean, like, really, if they're calling it, the reason that they're calling it is because the counties that have already reported tend to be the more red counties.
01:45:04.900
There are a bunch of outstanding blue counties.
01:45:07.120
Now, looking at the Lib outlets, I'm checking in again with our friends at the New York Times.
01:45:11.820
They are continuing to increase Trump's chances at the presidency.
01:45:22.060
Before New Hampshire came in, they had it up to 280 as a possibility.
01:45:27.840
Well, you're seeing a little breakaway here, even coming from the liberal outlets.
01:45:33.380
It says it's a toss-up, but their meter is moving closer to lean.
01:45:38.380
The famous needle that had Hillary Clinton at 99%.
01:45:44.340
You know, Megan, what are you hearing from the evangelicals?
01:45:46.980
You know, we've heard so much about the evangelicals being kind of told not to vote or told that they should vote woke or whatever.
01:45:54.720
I mean, it's both from a standpoint of you have pastors, and I can tell you some very well-known influential pastors, people like Andy Stanley, who he has a church of about 38,000 in Georgia.
01:46:07.680
And he had a book out last year called Not In It to Win It, Why Choosing Sides Sidelines the Church.
01:46:19.360
The messaging that you're getting from a lot of these pastors that it's dirty to get your hands in politics rather than understanding that, look, we as a constituency have to be able to leverage our political power for the cause of righteousness.
01:46:33.500
And at the same time, you also have literally, and you and I talked about this on your show, hard left secular foundations who are funneling money into gambits and efforts to try to push this narrative that it's better for Christians to abstain from the political process, that Jesus is neither left nor right.
01:46:56.400
And, of course, the implication there is that the left and right are moral equivalents, and they're not, but I think you have a lot of pastors who are unwilling to stand up and seem like they're partisan and push back against that narrative.
01:47:13.140
I had Jack Hibbs on, one of the best-known pastors in the country, for an hour last week on my show, begging fellow evangelicals to vote.
01:47:21.840
But this notion, Jesus is neither left nor right, and it doesn't matter whether you're Catholic, Protestant, or Jew, I, for 17 years, have conducted Yom Kippur and Rosh Hashanah services in Los Angeles.
01:47:45.620
That's one of the reasons I founded this synagogue, was not to talk politics.
01:47:49.280
But I'm obviously conservative, religiously and morally.
01:47:56.620
And one of my subjects, and I choose them very carefully, because most of the people have heard me on the radio and in speeches, so I need something really big, but not one that I've addressed.
01:48:08.260
How does one explain when religion, specifically Judaism and Christianity, or Christianity, doesn't make people better?
01:48:20.480
The first book I wrote, I was 24 years old, the nine questions people ask about Judaism.
01:48:25.620
And one of the questions was, if religion is supposed to make people better, how do you account for unethical religious people?
01:48:37.060
The Bible is so clear that God wants us to be good.
01:48:42.500
My favorite verse in the entire Bible is, those of you who love God must, it's a commandment, the Hebrew is a commandment, must hate evil.
01:48:53.020
So for a pastor, or a rabbi, that's irrelevant, or a pope, to say that Jesus doesn't take sides, he doesn't take sides on whether you cut girls' breasts off if they say they're boys, that's frightening.
01:49:11.580
Mr. Rob, could you deliver that message to the evangelicals?
01:49:19.020
I will say that there is an aspect of Jesus, which is, you hate to use modern political vernacular to talk about ancient religious figures,
01:49:33.600
but there is a liberal aspect to Jesus in the sense that Dr. Jordan Peterson often says that the purpose of the liberal in a healthy society is to speak for the underrepresented.
01:49:45.920
It's to speak for anyone who, because in any sort of hierarchy of any kind, there are going to be people who get disenfranchised, there are going to be people who the system looks over,
01:49:56.740
and someone has to remind those of us who are in power, those of us who are ascendant, to remember those people and to care for them.
01:50:04.140
But that's about where the comparison can stop.
01:50:08.740
Religion is fundamentally a conservative exercise because it posits that the greatest wisdom that's ever been presented in human history is behind us.
01:50:20.280
And, right, there's also a transcendent eternal moral order and human nature.
01:50:25.220
You know, it's hard to square that with the liberal project, which is in itself largely a rejection of religion.
01:50:31.780
I mean, you think of the French Revolution as where we get the terms left and right.
01:50:36.580
That comes from the National Assembly, where the Catholics sat on the right and the atheists sat on the left.
01:50:44.140
Speaking of the French Revolution, our friend Tim Poole is joining us now.
01:50:47.000
And not a moment too soon because the polls are closing in a number of states just in the last few minutes,
01:50:52.420
all throughout the central part of the country, including Texas, my home state,
01:50:59.280
which you will be shocked to learn is being universally called for Donald Trump.
01:51:03.960
So, you know, going into the election, there were all kinds of things that people were, you know,
01:51:07.300
maybe New York will go for Trump and maybe Texas will go for Harris.
01:51:16.280
Trump wins Wyoming, Trump wins Kansas, Trump wins North Dakota, Trump wins South Dakota,
01:51:19.960
Trump wins Nebraska, Trump wins Louisiana, and Kamala wins New York.
01:51:23.300
So Donald Trump's big dream of winning New York,
01:51:26.020
well, that one went down in flames because that's a really stupid idea.
01:51:38.520
We've been tracking the decision desk forecast, giving Trump's about 70% chance to win.
01:51:43.660
And it's going down a little bit, but it's staying about two to one.
01:51:51.760
The whole time, the scariest thing is the quote unquote shadow campaign, right?
01:52:00.200
We go to bed, Trump's ahead in all the numbers, and then we wake up and he's not winning.
01:52:04.920
Based on what I've seen on the ground, based on...
01:52:07.180
I went to Philadelphia and there were Trump signs in downtown Philadelphia and the surrounding
01:52:12.100
That, to me, was crazy to see an urban center that was Republican or that people were unafraid.
01:52:17.240
And so my gut just says Trump's got the edge, whatever that means.
01:52:20.620
But I don't know the Republicans have the procedural capabilities that Democrats have.
01:52:24.020
I think, Ben, you were saying they're way more professional.
01:52:27.480
Yeah, so there was some Gallup data that suggested that a much higher percentage of Democrats had
01:52:32.660
heard directly from the Kamala campaign than Republicans had heard from the Trump campaign.
01:52:40.980
They will do whatever it takes to get their people out.
01:52:43.140
Republicans, it always feels like, okay, guys, just please just go.
01:52:46.340
And the more we just shout vote at people, somebody out there, you'll open your window,
01:52:51.080
you'll shout vote, and some person in Pennsylvania will hear you,
01:52:55.540
With that said, I mean, the enthusiasm that Trump, you know,
01:52:59.140
does enable in the voting population on both sides, but largely on the right,
01:53:03.520
is unprecedented, obviously, in American history.
01:53:08.820
If you had to game it out right now, Trump is a slight favorite.
01:53:12.040
I think everyone sort of acknowledges at this point that Trump is a slight favorite,
01:53:16.820
So, like the needle, the New York Times, the famous needle.
01:53:19.520
They right now have it leaning right between it's a toss-up
01:53:23.800
Like, they have a very slightly favoring President Trump.
01:53:26.880
He is very slightly favored to win Pennsylvania.
01:53:30.280
He's slightly favored still to win Nevada and North Carolina,
01:53:34.860
So I'm not citing a left-wing source right there.
01:53:37.020
And, of course, it seems as though we're having a better time tonight
01:53:41.500
From what I'm hearing from my, you know, I'm getting a lot of texts from people.
01:53:46.680
You know, the whole night I watched the left-wing media.
01:53:50.140
Oh, well, we're just going to live stream MSNBC.
01:53:53.260
If this goes the wrong way, we're just going to, like, put a live camera
01:53:56.520
outside Kamala's headquarters, and we're just going to watch people scream
01:54:00.140
into the night, and it's going to be just wonderful.
01:54:04.820
You guys all know the term schadenfreude, joy and others' misery.
01:54:17.100
If they do it tonight, it's like the purge, right?
01:54:20.560
Just continue to avoid the suffering of others.
01:54:22.380
I have been very honest with myself for the past several days.
01:54:30.760
A lot of Democrat friends, and I won't bring it up with them,
01:54:36.300
However, I have two buddies who are New York Democrats,
01:54:42.500
but I am salivating at the prospect of rubbing it in their faces so hard.
01:54:50.360
I think it's otherwise we have to have a politics of grace.
01:54:57.400
As a warning to others, we must engage in schadenfreude.
01:55:04.480
You really don't want to do it, but it has to be done.
01:55:09.680
This is why I really hope that Trump wins the popular vote.
01:55:13.120
If Trump wins the electoral college and loses the popular vote,
01:55:17.560
you guys only win because of some archaic procedure.
01:55:25.680
so I can just say you're wrong about everything
01:55:28.400
Well, it does look right now in Ohio by the way.
01:55:32.180
You have a lot of relatives who are on the left?
01:55:44.580
because I always ask people about their own personal lives.
01:57:01.920
But doesn't Donald Trump often wear a blue tie?
01:57:17.520
Sometimes, you know, when Reagan won, it was blue was Republican and red was Democrat.
01:57:29.720
That was really when it started to solidify as red for Republican, blue for Dem.
01:57:43.220
But I mean, that bright red, it's like a stop sign or something.
01:57:49.620
In Ohio, it looks like Bernie Moreno is going to cruise to victory over Sherrod Brown.
01:57:59.960
Yeah, that takes the Republicans to 52 in the Senate.
01:58:09.860
Shane on our show is like, there's no cities in West Virginia.
01:58:17.440
So we're being joined right now from Harris HQ in D.C. by our very own Spencer Lindquist.
01:58:26.920
So we're here in D.C., right in the middle of the swamp, and people have been really trickling
01:58:31.940
Most everybody is here at the party, and it is a large crowd.
01:58:35.220
I spoke with some people earlier, and they said they were cautiously optimistic.
01:58:39.060
It was three young women who go to school here at Howard, and they all think Kamala's
01:58:43.220
going to take it, but really, none of them seemed too confident.
01:58:45.920
So we still have a long night ahead of us before we have any results.
01:58:51.020
Have you been able to talk to any attendees inside the party?
01:58:55.160
Yeah, some of the attendees inside the party, you know, it really is a large crowd.
01:58:59.560
They're listening to music right now and really kind of just hanging out, waiting for these
01:59:04.740
You know, we saw Illinois be called for Harris, a couple of other deep blue states be called
01:59:08.760
for Harris, and they're sitting here watching, kind of waiting for these results to roll
01:59:13.020
in, and people seem to be, you know, they're excited, a little bit jittery even, and cautiously
01:59:18.500
optimistic, I think, is the general tone of those here on the ground.
01:59:24.720
What do you think is the most likely victory map if she does end up winning tonight?
01:59:28.220
You know, reporters and analysts all week leading up to this election have said that Kamala Harris's
01:59:35.700
most direct path to victory really could lead through those three key Rust Belt states, those
01:59:42.340
So you've got Michigan, Wisconsin, and of course, Pennsylvania, which has 19 electoral votes.
01:59:47.000
And if Kamala Harris won those three states, you could have Trump winning North Carolina,
01:59:53.240
And you would still come away with a very, very slim margin, but a Kamala Harris victory
01:59:58.940
So those three states really are key, and they're going to be ones that we're going to be keeping
02:00:03.260
And as you've been looking around D.C. for the last day or two, you know, we see reports
02:00:07.680
about shopkeepers boarding up their businesses.
02:00:13.400
We were hanging out really right around the White House in downtown Washington, D.C., and
02:00:18.800
there's a number of different businesses ranging from, you know, small restaurants to office
02:00:25.280
You know, we saw violence here in D.C. after Trump's inauguration in January of 2017.
02:00:30.060
We saw violence around the country directly following Trump's election in 2016.
02:00:34.860
So there is an indication that if Trump does win this election, there could be more left-wing
02:00:39.940
And that's exactly what those businesses are preparing for.
02:00:42.720
If they start boarding up the windows at the White House, please text us.
02:00:51.240
We'll check back in with you in just a little bit.
02:00:53.620
Daily Wire's footprint at Harris HQ was made possible by friends at PDS.
02:00:57.420
Get a custom plan right now to become a debt-free at pds.com slash Daily Wire.
02:01:05.960
This one from NBC News suggesting that Donald Trump may win up to 45 percent of the Latino
02:01:26.040
I mean, again, the Democrats, for a couple of reasons, have totally misread the Hispanic
02:01:32.740
They misread them on policy because they think that they're just a bunch of left-wing San
02:01:36.240
Francisco liberals so long as you keep the border open.
02:01:38.280
But they also, I think, made a huge mistake in 2020, misreading the Hispanic population
02:01:43.480
by using this dumbass notion of BIPOC, this idea that every member of minority was the
02:01:50.960
So Asians were the same as black people, the same as Hispanic people.
02:01:53.500
First of all, Hispanic people ain't even the same as Hispanic people, right?
02:01:56.320
Cuba is not the same as Argentina, which is not the same as Venezuela.
02:01:58.720
I mean, these are all different countries with completely different histories.
02:02:05.040
And then I think in 2020, when they were like, listen, if you're Latino, you must believe
02:02:08.640
that Black Lives Matter is the most important thing in the world.
02:02:12.540
I think you saw a lot of Hispanics go, you know, no.
02:02:17.480
I think Latinx was probably offensive to a lot of Hispanics as well.
02:02:24.260
We do know, though, actually, that the Democrats are aware at some level that Hispanics are not
02:02:28.580
all the same, because Obama, as he was opening up immigration from everywhere in Latin America,
02:02:36.520
He said, no, for the first time, forget about those Cubans.
02:02:39.920
But everyone else, Venezuelans, please come over.
02:02:42.240
Meanwhile, another NBC News exit poll in Wisconsin, suggesting this Dasha Burns of NBC News,
02:02:47.760
suggesting that Trump has doubled his Black support in Wisconsin.
02:02:50.640
Trump is polling apparently about 20% of the Black vote versus 78% for Kamala Harris.
02:02:56.200
Four years ago, he won 8% of Black voters in Wisconsin.
02:02:59.700
I mean, you're looking at identity realignment happening in real time in this election cycle.
02:03:04.740
And so the final identity that Democrats are just banging on is white ladies, white single
02:03:13.920
We should say single ladies are the constituency of the Democratic Party.
02:03:17.360
Which is why Kamala Harris has campaigned so hard to get those people out to vote and campaigned
02:03:21.380
almost solely on abortion because she's dropping support like flies with Hispanic men, with
02:03:28.680
I mean, also, and it's not, it's not, it actually is not distributed evenly.
02:03:32.480
Like among single women, it's not as though everybody of every race who's single.
02:03:36.400
I think that there is, it really depends on how likely you are to get married as a single
02:03:39.940
woman, as a member of those populations, right?
02:03:42.240
If you're like, this is a question that we were talking about with Jordan was married
02:03:45.620
women obviously vote very much like their husbands.
02:03:47.580
Is that because they're being, you know, forcibly abused by their husband, or is it
02:03:51.360
because the tend of women, the types of women who tend to get married tend to be the types
02:03:56.360
And people also marry people like themselves a little bit.
02:04:02.920
But it's also increasingly a self-selected group, meaning the kinds of people who want
02:04:05.960
to get married are also the kinds of people who are going to tend to vote Republican
02:04:11.000
By the way, Kelly Ayotte is now your governor of New Hampshire.
02:04:14.380
So, you know, Trump doesn't win the state, but Ayotte is the governor of New
02:04:17.560
That's the first Republican governor they've had in 2000.
02:04:25.440
I just want to say the New York Times needle has now shifted over to leaning to Trump.
02:04:34.340
66% likelihood, according to the New York Times.
02:04:37.140
Why do you keep saying it's, well, you kept saying, he said it's just slightly.
02:04:42.620
They're saying leaning Trump, but they're saying the likelihood, given that lean, so
02:04:50.000
This is all this, like, stupid needle that people talked about last time.
02:04:58.000
They're saying, it's not, they're not saying Trump is going to win, you know, 66%.
02:05:02.440
No, no, they're saying it's a 66% chance he'll win.
02:05:13.400
Dennis, the same needle once said that Hillary Clinton had 99% chance of winning.
02:05:24.520
Because you do think the last time we talked about this needle, it was to watch it just
02:05:31.460
I don't want to move too far from this conversation about the gender gap in the electorate without
02:05:36.940
talking about the hands-down, bar none, worst political ad of my lifetime put out by a
02:05:43.840
PAC supporting Kamala Harris that encouraged women to lie to their husbands.
02:05:49.920
I think divorce is a grave evil, something that we could argue about one of these days.
02:05:55.180
I might divorce my wife if I found out that she lied to me.
02:05:58.160
I would not divorce my wife for voting for someone with whom I deeply disagree.
02:06:04.760
You'd have to, because you, in a marriage, need to have a common set of values and a common
02:06:09.280
But to find out that your spouse just lies to you about who they vote for.
02:06:12.960
Did you see the whisper campaign that the Washington Post was reporting on?
02:06:17.200
They said after that ad went out, women were putting post-it notes in bathroom stalls saying,
02:06:22.720
your husband won't know, your boyfriend won't know, your vote is a secret.
02:06:26.060
I kind of feel like if I went to the bathroom and I saw a post on the wall, I would not consider
02:06:35.120
You know, that's not what women were doing, and if it worked for them, I guess.
02:06:42.700
But it's so perfectly exemplary of the Democrat Party because, you know, the fundamental political
02:06:55.140
And the Democrats have been so relentless in their assaults on the family.
02:06:58.520
Taking your kids away from you, promoting divorce, discouraging marriage, promoting
02:07:03.420
All the way up to, hey, folks, our best argument for victory is you divide up your marriage.
02:07:11.700
And that will divide up the country, and we win.
02:07:13.940
You know, the New York Times, if you follow the New York Times, they run at least three
02:07:18.380
articles a week suggesting various kinds of sex that will probably destroy or enslave
02:07:26.000
If you're married, they keep saying, you know, you don't have to have sex when you're married.
02:07:28.780
They literally will have these articles, but you might want to consider it a throuple.
02:07:32.540
If you're childless and alone, maybe a decent evolutionary strategy is to break up other
02:07:44.020
Like, you have no idea what sort of machinations people are capable of when what they're fighting
02:07:50.540
for is the probability that they will end up in a couple.
02:07:58.780
If you're not in a couple, and other people are, then one of your strategies is to do
02:08:08.860
And you might say, well, that's counterproductive in the long run.
02:08:11.420
It's like, well, maybe you're not concerned about the long run if you're that desperate.
02:08:15.180
Because desperate people tend not to be concerned with the long run.
02:08:17.760
We do have this terrible mystery that conservatives haven't unlocked, which is the absolutely aberrant
02:08:23.520
pattern of attitudes and voting patterns that characterize single women between the ages
02:08:33.200
It can't just be passed over because what they're doing is radically different than what
02:08:38.940
And it's enough to consistently swing the election.
02:08:41.400
Tim, we were talking about this last night on your show.
02:08:43.640
This idea that people like Chelsea Handler and others keep talking about how they do drugs
02:08:49.100
and have sex with themselves all day, and they're so genuinely happy.
02:08:53.980
And my argument was that they actually are happy.
02:08:58.460
I think that they don't know that there's an entire realm of human emotion that happens
02:09:03.360
in marriage and then when you have children that they're not even aware of.
02:09:10.680
The fact that we're obsessed with happiness, even on the psychological side, is an indication
02:09:16.700
I mean, one of the things that you see quite consistently in psychological research is that
02:09:20.800
couples without children are happier than couples with children.
02:09:27.400
It's like, no, you shouldn't use happiness measurements as your index of outcome.
02:09:32.200
Of course, you're less happy because your three-year-old is fragile.
02:09:36.300
And if you have a three-year-old and a one-year-old, it's like, well, you're juggling catastrophes
02:09:41.620
Well, seriously, you don't have time to be happy.
02:09:43.780
It's like, but happiness is a fleeting hedonic emotion and it's not an indicator of participation
02:09:50.060
in a process that's going to stabilize your life and the life of your family across decades.
02:09:56.980
It's the permanent adolescence of the coming generations.
02:10:01.160
They are, I look at wolves and I look at dogs and the story of how dogs came to be domesticated.
02:10:06.880
They say that dogs are effectively just permanent adolescent wolves.
02:10:09.940
I see that's what's happening to humanity right now with the current trend, telling people
02:10:13.480
not to grow up, play video games, stay home, stay single, live in your own internal world.
02:10:23.300
You know, and Peter Pan has Tinkerbell, the porn fairy.
02:10:32.200
It's not perhaps the kingship that you'd choose.
02:10:34.580
You know, and he forgoes the possibilities of maturity to remain in this childhood fantasy.
02:10:40.180
The only thing, our media is telling everybody to keep doing it.
02:10:44.280
They're telling you you're selfish if you try to live and have a family and experience what
02:10:50.900
And also, I believe your moral duty, which is, for those that are religious, to be fruitful
02:10:56.560
But for the sake of humanity, if you look at it from a more secular point of view, something
02:10:59.900
like Elon Musk, if we do not reproduce, civilization collapses.
02:11:03.320
And they are telling people to just be hedonistic and to be permanent children.
02:11:06.680
But I, you know, I kind of disagree with you a bit about this because people who do these
02:11:12.320
I worked in Hollywood for quite a while and I've known a lot of people who live like that.
02:11:16.580
You know, I think they have that kind of surface, brittle, smiley happiness.
02:11:20.740
But you only have to question them, talk to them for 10, 20 minutes.
02:11:23.800
And the depth of despair underneath that, it's like thin ice over a block.
02:11:27.620
Well, that's why the measurements are terribly out of whack.
02:11:31.040
It's like, if you're going to do research on something as fundamental as human well-being,
02:11:35.180
you bloody well better make sure your measurements are accurate.
02:11:37.300
We also need to establish, we have to establish the definition of happiness, which is like
02:11:41.400
these guys are talking about happiness as though, in the way we talk about it in modern
02:11:45.880
times, which is as some fleeting little emotion or you get tickled or something.
02:11:49.240
But, you know, happiness we used to understand as rational activity done with excellence in
02:11:58.500
And so we used to believe that actually there was an end to mankind.
02:12:10.140
So when we disagree over what makes us happy, unfortunately the problem is even more fundamental.
02:12:16.780
And maybe this is actually why I always say this in a way that you, because we talk about
02:12:21.640
this from time to time and you guys disagree with me, but, you know, for example, 2023 was
02:12:31.800
And I still would have told you I was, I was miserable, but I was also happy.
02:12:36.560
I was, I was certainly not at my best, but I still would have considered myself a happy
02:12:44.520
And I, I think that it may be that I'm just defining happiness differently.
02:12:49.780
What was, what was it that would, what was it about your life that would have motivated
02:12:55.480
I suppose that what I would say is that I was fulfilled.
02:13:01.360
I mean, you can tolerate a lot of pain even if your relationships are intact and you're
02:13:06.680
moving towards a purpose that you regard as worthwhile.
02:13:09.360
So, so one of, one of the things that's worthwhile to understand purely from the perspective of
02:13:14.440
the psychophysiology of happiness is that the positive emotion that's produced by drugs
02:13:19.240
like cocaine, for example, which make you happy, that positive emotion is always experienced
02:13:26.900
So the happiness that, that, that people strive towards is only possible psychopharmacologically
02:13:33.820
if you observe yourself moving towards a valued goal.
02:13:36.840
And so that, that has a number of implications.
02:13:43.640
Or, or maybe happiness of only the most fleeting and easily substituted kind.
02:13:48.440
We also know from animal research, for example, that it's very difficult, it's very easy to
02:13:53.940
get rats that are isolated in a cage addicted to cocaine.
02:13:57.760
And you can get them addicted rapidly to the point where they will basically not drink water
02:14:04.360
They'll just push a button to get cocaine until they die.
02:14:07.020
But if they're living in their wild habitat doing like normative rat things, it's almost
02:14:12.980
And so, and so even at the purely level of pure pharmacological reward, if you have animals
02:14:19.960
in a habitat where they're pursuing their intrinsic biologically determined goals, then they're
02:14:26.520
participating in processes that make them very resistant to alternative forms of fleeting
02:14:35.860
I really think it's enraging young women in particular.
02:14:38.180
We have no, we have absolute, so we know that, for example, half of women who are 30
02:14:47.720
That we hit that milestone last year in the West.
02:14:56.160
So we've already in a situation where we have doomed one woman in four to permanent isolation
02:15:04.620
And we have no idea how angry they are about that.
02:15:07.720
But, like, you can be sure that they're angry at a level that's so deep that you can barely
02:15:13.000
And you're not even allowed to talk about it because you're offending them by saying
02:15:16.060
that the childless cat lady is not in a good position to judge the future.
02:15:20.700
And this thing about time is everything, right?
02:15:22.960
I mean, you have kids and it's difficult, but it's a beautiful experience.
02:15:26.940
It's the experience that turns life from two dimensions into three dimensions.
02:15:31.740
And at some point, it's incredibly rewarding to have done it.
02:15:35.120
You know, I mean, I can sit and look at my grandchildren without doing anything for hours.
02:15:38.700
I actually said to my wife, we have to go because I'll never accomplish anything ever
02:15:42.660
again because I'm just happy watching the kids playing with Legos.
02:15:48.620
And maybe the reason that I consider myself, even when I'm sort of miserable to be a happy
02:15:52.360
person, is connected to the fact that I'm not a fun-loving person.
02:15:55.840
Like, I don't get any sense of joy out of drinking booze or going to loud clubs.
02:16:02.540
Having a good time is not your idea of having a good time.
02:16:06.940
To me, having a good time is being about my purpose.
02:16:12.460
And that's why having children has increased my happiness.
02:16:14.420
Well, you've both alluded to something that's fundamentally important on the measurement
02:16:18.440
It's like almost all the things that people do in their life that they look back on with,
02:16:23.640
let's say, self-assurance and something approximating reasonable pride are things they
02:16:31.160
Now, those aren't necessarily the things you pick for your hedonic pleasure.
02:16:35.320
But when you look back, you think, well, that was extremely difficult and demanding and
02:16:39.880
And there was a fair bit of suffering moment to moment while I was going through it.
02:16:43.320
But man, I'm certainly more than pleased that I managed it.
02:16:50.920
It was just being alive, you know, being in that moment and thinking like, yeah, here
02:16:54.740
You know, I compare it sometimes when you go to a movie and you watch somebody, a character
02:16:59.600
And then you come out and people say, how was the movie?
02:17:02.720
And life is kind of like that a lot of times if you're paying attention.
02:17:05.720
Yeah, I think of happiness as if you're doing the things that you ought to be doing,
02:17:10.740
then you're happy, sort of regardless of how you may feel in any given moment while
02:17:15.740
And if you're doing the things that you ought not be doing, then you're in despair, whether
02:17:21.800
And when that question comes up, I think back to our first film, What is a Woman?, when we
02:17:29.760
And there's a lot of conversations we had with the tribesmen that didn't make it into
02:17:33.140
film because it wasn't exactly relevant to the topic of transgenderism.
02:17:37.060
But I remember multiple times when we were talking to the, especially the women, and I would
02:17:42.800
And every single time they would respond by saying, through the translator, they would
02:17:47.980
respond by saying, by telling me about the things that they do.
02:17:58.920
And their immediate response is to talk about the things that they do.
02:18:03.380
Right, because then there's no, the idea that they could be doing the things that they
02:18:06.960
ought to be doing and not be happy, it's like, it doesn't make sense.
02:18:10.320
Well, that also indicates that in our society, we've abstracted the emotion away from its
02:18:18.180
You know, and we treat happiness as if it's an abstraction that exists in and of itself.
02:18:24.280
And you also pointed to something else that's very interesting.
02:18:27.640
You know, when you ask people, it's very hard to ask people a question properly and get
02:18:36.080
And psychologists have concentrated on doing that for decades.
02:18:40.740
One of the things you discover if you do research into what people mean when they say that they
02:18:45.580
just want to be happy is what they actually mean is they don't want to suffer.
02:18:49.180
So you can imagine that there's two elements to happiness.
02:18:57.840
And if you push people into a corner, they'll pick absence of negative emotion over presence of
02:19:02.520
positive emotion every time because pain is extraordinarily salient.
02:19:07.280
And so part of what people mean when they say they want to be happy means is that they
02:19:11.580
want to be secure in their foundation, which is not at all the same thing as pursuing the
02:19:16.980
hedonic pleasure that would be duplicable, say, with cocaine.
02:19:22.980
And Decision Desk HQ has called North Carolina for Donald Trump.
02:19:28.040
Truly a must-win state, in my opinion, for Trump.
02:19:34.900
And another great sort of victory, not only national victory, but even personal victory.
02:19:40.040
They're also declaring Ted Cruz has won his Tennessee in Texas.
02:19:45.300
As we said while Dennis was here, Ted was actually kind of on the ropes a little bit in a very hard-fought
02:19:51.780
But in these last weeks, I mean, he's done an enormous job down in Texas, an enormous job
02:19:56.920
campaigning, a very smart politician, and he's retained his seat for a third term.
02:20:01.080
And most importantly, Jeremy, at least from your perspective, your only friend in the U.S.
02:20:07.320
Not just the U.S. Senate, my only friend in government at any level, top to bottom.
02:20:11.960
And so with that good news, we'll take a moment to tell you about our sponsors.
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Because, of course, Donald Trump, with a little good Lord willing, the crick don't rise, as they say, will be our 47th president.
02:22:08.260
So this is just going to come down to what we always thought was going to come down to, those blue wall states.
02:22:18.300
The great irony, the thing I'm rooting so hard for, more than anything else, is that it comes down to Pennsylvania, and she loses Pennsylvania because she wouldn't pick the Jew.
02:22:26.720
It would be the most wonderful thing in the entire world.
02:22:29.640
I would love it so much that her signal moral inability to condemn the pro-Hamas quadrant of her base loses her the election because she just couldn't pick the Jewish guy from the swing state with a 60% approval rating.
02:22:43.880
She felt like she was on the ropes in Minnesota, right?
02:22:48.780
She needed the very popular governor of the obvious way of state.
02:22:51.560
What she required was the super weird guy who looks like an inflatable off the side of a freeway to use car a lot.
02:22:59.280
In fairness to Kamala, so she offended all the Jews.
02:23:01.700
Wait, why couldn't you have just said, in fairness to inflatable?
02:23:05.760
But not only did she offend all the Jews by not picking Shapiro because she wanted to cozy up to the pro-Hamas side.
02:23:13.220
Also, let's not forget, one in four voters in Pennsylvania is Catholic, and she decides two weeks before the election to say, hey, you say Jesus is Lord?
02:23:27.960
One time, what's even worse than that is when she went on national TV, and they said, will you make any religious exemptions for abortion?
02:23:38.160
The problem with the Rust Belt thing is the Rust Belt has—
02:23:41.460
Those three states have voted exactly the same since the 70s, haven't they?
02:23:47.580
Has there been a time where Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania didn't vote in lockstep with one another since we've been alive except for—
02:23:57.320
But I'm trying to think of a situation in which the election was super close.
02:24:08.220
In 2004, they actually went for Kerry, and it was Ohio that won the election for Bush.
02:24:14.700
So, you know, when everything is this close, when everything is this tight, I mean, the thing is, when we talk about presidential history, and you'll say, is there a precedent for this?
02:24:25.520
They'll say, well, this is the first time this has happened in 20 years.
02:24:42.080
Well, you know, it looks as though the Sun Belt is locking up for Trump, is what it's starting to look like.
02:24:49.940
I mean, it's calling Georgia, obviously, a little bit early, and Arizona really, really early.
02:24:53.200
But it looks like those states are looking fairly good for Trump.
02:24:55.800
What do you make of, you know, the Rust Belt and the Sun Belt right now?
02:24:59.440
Well, let's talk about North Carolina specifically, because this ties back to something that I don't even know what time it is right now.
02:25:05.460
But a few hours ago that we spoke of, and that's turnout potentially and likely being higher than 2020.
02:25:13.200
So if we're looking at North Carolina specifically, in 2020, turnout was about 5.4 million in North Carolina.
02:25:21.200
If you take the percent reporting now, add in those estimated votes remaining, it puts you at 5.8 million.
02:25:27.960
So when we were looking at our turnout curve, we knew that once you got to about 5.6 or 7, that put it in somewhat Kamala territory.
02:25:36.680
And then if you went beyond that, you almost had no clue what was going to happen.
02:25:40.240
Well, now we actually have a clue what happens when you go above 2020 turnout, and it benefits Donald Trump.
02:25:49.960
Brunswick, and so this is a really strong reporting Republican county.
02:25:54.740
And you can see here, let me show you the historical comparison.
02:26:03.760
But this county actually, as of right now, has netted out 1,000 more votes for Donald Trump than last time,
02:26:12.500
And so I think this is really indicative of what happens when turnout goes above 2020 numbers.
02:26:19.060
Let's zoom in here to Wake County, which is the seat of the state with Raleigh.
02:26:25.840
And you can see here that Harris is doing a little bit better.
02:26:34.260
What's likely going to happen is that this improves for Donald Trump in this final 25% that's coming in.
02:26:40.500
And then if we come over here to Pitt County, so this county is about 30, let's see here.
02:26:52.000
So it's for a state that is below that overall, this is a slightly more black county than the state as a whole.
02:26:59.340
And then when we look at this historical comparison, what you'll see in Pitt is that this was a margin of about 9.4 for Biden in 20.
02:27:11.260
And what's really interesting is that it had already moved three points to the right between 16 and 20.
02:27:17.220
And so when you start to put this math together and you see that these Republican counties are performing very well,
02:27:22.420
and even if they don't perform at the same margin for Trump, they're actually netting out more votes into the overall count.
02:27:28.520
And then you look at a place like Pitt County that, as you can see, is blue on the map, but it is less blue, and it is becoming less blue.
02:27:37.100
And I think this is a really, really good example of this educational attainment realignment that's been happening in this country,
02:27:43.820
where if 20 years ago you were a college grad, you were probably a Republican.
02:27:47.540
20 years ago you were a non-college grad, you were probably a Democrat.
02:27:54.120
And as we look at that, what our experimental exit polling shows so far on our internals
02:28:00.000
is that that realignment among non-white voters is even more extreme than the continued shift that we see with white voters.
02:28:07.980
So as we look at these three counties here, Brunswick in the south, a very heavy Republican county netting out more for Trump,
02:28:15.820
Wake County, the rest of this reporting going to be better for Trump, and then Pitt County,
02:28:20.560
this is the third election in a row with Donald Trump on the ballot where his margin improves,
02:28:29.320
You start to see how once we get into this explosive, crazy, wild, who knew we could go above 2020 and turn out,
02:28:38.800
the answer is we're starting to see a trend that it is benefiting Donald Trump.
02:28:49.280
We can look at some of these counties, and that's why I really like Pitt specifically here,
02:28:53.400
because it is more black than the state as a whole.
02:28:55.980
And if this was like 2020, if the numbers were coming back like that,
02:29:01.200
I would say that I don't know why they would have called North Carolina,
02:29:04.100
but you can look at this as an example and say, okay,
02:29:06.400
I start to see why they went ahead and called North Carolina,
02:29:09.300
despite the fact that it's only 61 percent reporting right now,
02:29:12.760
because we're talking about 5.8 plus million turnout, which is just incredible.
02:29:17.520
Yeah, so Brent, one of the things that people are pointing out is that it is a very good sign for Trump,
02:29:22.180
not just that North Carolina has been called, but that it's been called so early,
02:29:25.180
meaning that the patterns in data seem to be benefiting President Trump.
02:29:30.080
The sort of theory of the electorate, which was that a high turnout election was going to benefit inevitably the Democrats,
02:29:38.640
And you're seeing this reflected in some of the data.
02:29:40.840
I mean, the needle over at The New York Times, the all-powerful needle,
02:29:44.060
is now officially leaning Trump a 67 percent chance of victory for President Trump,
02:29:48.400
according to the vaunted New York Times needle.
02:29:50.920
And they are also suggesting that President Trump has a slight up chance.
02:29:56.240
Basically, Brent, if you had to speculate at this point, we'll just rank speculation.
02:30:00.740
Kamala Harris needs to win Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin in order to win this election.
02:30:04.320
If you had to ballpark this thing, that is the most likely scenario at this point, is it not?
02:30:08.200
Yeah, once North Carolina is off of the map, it puts her right into that vaunted, quote, blue wall
02:30:13.980
that in 2020 is what won the election, more so even than Georgia and Arizona.
02:30:20.220
It was going back to winning Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
02:30:23.920
And right now, as we're looking at Pennsylvania, you can see that it's a complete coin toss at this point.
02:30:29.640
And what's fascinating is that we're likely to see massive, massive turnout above 2020 for this state also.
02:30:35.540
And so as we compare a place like Pennsylvania to North Carolina, where the increased turnout really benefited Donald Trump,
02:30:44.500
we don't have enough vote in yet in Pennsylvania to say the same thing.
02:30:48.100
But they're both experiencing increased turnout over 2020, but we're seeing slightly different results.
02:30:54.820
I mean, if the theory was simply that more turnout over 20 is better for Donald Trump,
02:31:00.920
then we could go ahead and call Pennsylvania, too.
02:31:02.680
But as you can see on the Decision Desk HQ right here, win probability, it's a complete coin flip.
02:31:11.180
We'll get back to you very shortly with the latest updates.
02:31:14.880
Again, thanks to our friends over at both PDS Dead and Lumen for their sponsorship of our program here tonight.
02:31:21.520
Obviously, Senator Cruz has been declared the victor over there.
02:31:24.200
That means that Republicans have probably a minimum of 52 seats in the United States Senate.
02:31:28.440
It also means that Republicans are doing better than expected so far in the House.
02:31:32.840
So there were serious questions about whether they're going to be able to retain the House majority.
02:31:36.100
So far, it looks like at least a coin flip as to whether they're able to retain that House majority,
02:31:40.720
which is actually better shape than a lot of people were expecting at this point in time.
02:31:45.140
Again, for those who missed it, North Carolina has been called.
02:31:47.900
The map is basically what you thought the map was going to be before this evening.
02:31:51.340
New Hampshire has been called in favor of Kamala Harris.
02:31:53.420
North Carolina has been called in favor of President Trump.
02:31:55.560
The Georgia votes are still coming in, but at this point, you have to say that President Trump is, in fact, favored in Georgia.
02:32:02.540
Arizona, he was leading pretty heavily in the early balloting anyway, so the chances are very good that he is going to win Arizona as well.
02:32:08.620
That means that Kamala Harris right now has to win in the blue wall states.
02:32:13.080
She needs to win all three of those blue wall states.
02:32:15.640
That'd be Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.
02:32:19.680
There is some early Pennsylvania voting data that is coming in.
02:32:22.480
They've got about 2.2 million votes counted there, 2.3 million votes counted there, according to the latest numbers.
02:32:29.000
You're looking at Kamala with a very slight advantage.
02:32:31.820
So far, things are going better than we had hoped.
02:32:33.640
We have the North Carolina win is the thing that I was the most worried about.
02:32:36.700
So in the same way that Ben had his positive outlier, that if Trump won New Hampshire,
02:32:42.500
he thought that that would be like kind of the runaway indicator that we were going to have a runaway goodnight.
02:32:47.100
To me, North Carolina was the obvious, Trump loses North Carolina, it just pretends terrible things.
02:32:54.360
Having Ted Cruz pick up that seat or hang on to his Senate seat in Texas, huge.
02:32:59.960
The fact that we will almost certainly be able, as Republicans, to hold the Senate, absolutely huge.
02:33:11.340
Again, exit polling, grain of salt, giant grain of salt.
02:33:13.440
CBS News exit poll in Michigan, younger voters aged 18 to 29 are narrowly going for Trump.
02:33:24.620
That would be, seriously, that would be all of the left-wing insane people on the left who wouldn't vote for Kamala Harris
02:33:30.600
because they think by some bizarre turn of the imagination that she's too pro-Israel.
02:33:35.520
You have to be a psychotic nutjob to think that Kamala Harris is too pro-Israel.
02:33:42.440
I hope that Jill Stein wins a million votes in the state of Michigan, that she and Cornel West just run away in that election.
02:33:51.220
Yeah, I'm wondering about that with regards to the increased turnout, too, if it's the same young men who are going back to church.
02:34:01.980
But you have to imagine, obviously, that you're talking about a heavy male turnout there.
02:34:05.620
It turns out that there are no white dudes for Harris.
02:34:09.060
And you have to trust Doug Emhoff, maybe, technically.
02:34:19.320
I think the last thing Doug Emhoff wants is to be stuck in the White House with Kamala Harris for four years.
02:34:23.480
I really think that he's tired of this by this point.
02:34:28.100
The needle currently has Donald Trump at a 70% chance of victory in the Electoral College and Harris at plus 0.2 in the popular vote estimate.
02:34:38.680
So there is every possibility here that Donald Trump ends up winning both the popular and the electoral for the first time for Republicans since 2004.
02:34:46.780
I was just going to say, that was just what I was going to say.
02:34:51.600
And they're still calling it for Kamala Harris.
02:34:54.100
Again, I'm not an expert on the counties, and I would assume that all the counties that they have not yet counted are like Fairfax, like big Dem counties.
02:35:04.140
Okay, so election expert Andrew Klavan is uncalling Virginia.
02:35:10.780
I will say that MSNBC is already starting to rip on the Electoral College.
02:35:15.740
So once they start yelling at the Electoral College, you know that things are not going amazingly well.
02:35:23.060
So over there, again, what we are saying is something that was noted earlier on, which is a shift in favor of Kamala Harris in the suburbs, but mildly huge turnout for President Trump.
02:35:35.440
Okay, the thing that Trump can do, that no other Republican candidate of my lifetime can do, is bring out low propensity voters.
02:35:40.460
The Mitt Romney plan in 2012 was bring out high propensity college white voters and get those people to vote in larger numbers for him than they voted for John McCain.
02:35:48.480
And Donald Trump's plan was to abandon all those people and go get the farmers to vote for him.
02:35:52.020
And as it turns out, that's actually his magic.
02:35:57.640
Like, again, the Hispanics, we are watching a sea change, regardless of the final line in this election.
02:36:03.760
Some of the trend lines that you're seeing in this election are astonishing.
02:36:06.540
I mean, Donald Trump winning, let's say, 20% of the black vote in Wisconsin.
02:36:10.600
Or you say Donald Trump winning 45% of the Hispanic vote.
02:36:14.060
If the entire theory of Democratic politics since 2012 has been, we cobble together minorities and single white ladies, and that is our coalition, and then you break minority strangleholds, what are they left with?
02:36:26.620
I mean, as we move forward, they might be able to sneak one out, maybe, maybe eek one out.
02:36:30.780
But what does that be tied for the rest of their agenda?
02:36:34.960
And do we think that they swivel more to the center, or do they move further away?
02:36:38.300
By the way, Trump has just been announced as the winner of Iowa.
02:36:52.520
Donald Trump winning Iowa may be the political shocker of the 2024 election.
02:36:58.400
The poll, that outlier poll that said Kamala was going to win Iowa, it did spook me.
02:37:05.100
That was the whole point of it, and it succeeded.
02:37:07.080
And people kept saying it was a respected poll, but in fact, this has not been that accurate at presidential elections.
02:37:11.260
Meanwhile, Donald Trump is in the New York Times needle.
02:37:20.340
He is slightly favored in Wisconsin at this point as well.
02:37:24.600
So it's possible that my original map was right, except for New Hampshire.
02:37:28.140
So I'm still rooting for my original map, but now that I've lost New Hampshire.
02:37:31.420
If he breaks Wisconsin off from Michigan and Pennsylvania, that is a path to the White House as well.
02:37:38.360
By the way, the Florida-Puerto Rican vote, again, just to point out that the media narrative is not real.
02:37:42.980
The Florida-Puerto Rican vote, Harris won the demographic 52-43 per the exits.
02:37:59.040
Now we're joined by the host of Dr. Phil, Dr. Phil himself.
02:38:07.180
Things are getting pretty interesting, I understand.
02:38:12.880
You know, I'm moving steadily from cautiously optimistic to openly optimistic, and it's an uncomfortable feeling for me, to be honest with you.
02:38:26.020
I heard somebody earlier say they were nauseously optimistic, so...
02:38:33.580
You know, I was at the MSG rally when none of us were expecting you to be there.
02:38:38.700
There was, whatever, you know, eight hours worth of speeches.
02:38:41.760
And when you came out, I think it genuinely shocked the crowd.
02:38:44.880
Not because we thought that you were a big leftist or something like that,
02:38:49.440
but that it entailed so much risk for you to come out at this point.
02:38:53.300
You've been a huge figure in media for so many years.
02:38:59.760
Well, you know, I wanted to do something that woke people up,
02:39:05.280
because I think this has been such a divisive campaign.
02:39:09.960
And, you know, when I came out, I said, look, I'm not here to endorse, just to endorse Donald Trump.
02:39:27.560
And I don't like the way people that vote for Donald Trump are being ostracized,
02:39:33.080
canceled on the Internet, attacked, and all of that.
02:39:38.960
And people can say, well, Donald Trump's a bully.
02:39:42.520
Well, you know, you've got to have an imbalance of power to be a bully.
02:39:47.540
Otherwise, you're just in a fight or an argument.
02:39:53.480
And I wanted people to understand, we've got to start having some civility to what's going on here.
02:40:01.760
Whoever is elected president, we have to get behind.
02:40:05.760
It's a bad look internationally if we don't support our president.
02:40:08.700
And I won't like it if it doesn't go the way I want it to go.
02:40:15.560
And I won't like everything that either of the candidates says or does.
02:40:22.260
And I said, one of the most important days in my life was 9-12-01.
02:40:27.960
Not 9-11, but 9-12, because the morning after 9-11, we woke up and we were all Americans.
02:40:35.600
And I hope that doesn't, we don't have to have a big catastrophe for us to have that feeling again.
02:40:41.540
And Dr. Phil, one question for you is, obviously, you really believe in individualism.
02:40:47.120
That's something that ranks very high on your list.
02:40:49.420
Many of the stats that are coming in right now show that we are watching a major political realignment in real time on a racial basis.
02:40:56.400
That this sort of stranglehold idea that the Democrats were going to win enormous, overwhelming sums of minority voters across the spectrum.
02:41:04.360
The biggest stat of the night so far is Trump winning maybe 45 percent of the Hispanic vote and up to 25 percent of the black male vote,
02:41:10.760
according to Kirsten Solstice-Anderson, my friend, the pollster over at Echelon Insights.
02:41:15.920
She's done some exit polling suggesting that black men, 23 percent, are going to vote for President Trump nationally, which is an unheard of number.
02:41:22.260
What do you make of this sort of political realignment?
02:41:25.200
Well, I think you're saying it exactly right, Ben.
02:41:27.680
I think it is a political realignment because people are saying, look, I'm tired of people telling me,
02:41:33.080
that because I'm part of a demographically defined group, that I can't think for myself.
02:41:39.420
And you've heard me talk very loud and long about the fact that we have to teach critical thinking in this country again.
02:41:45.860
We've got to inspire people to be critical thinkers.
02:41:48.820
That's why I've spoken out so much about these ridiculous campus protest groups that are demonstrating on behalf of Hamas.
02:42:00.780
And we're not teaching young people to be critical thinkers anymore.
02:42:04.460
And we've got this half of America that are truly identity politics.
02:42:09.640
People are smart enough to think for themselves.
02:42:12.800
And we're seeing it now where people are rebelling against this expectation that because I'm black or because I'm female or because I'm a certain age,
02:42:26.220
Well, the Democrats are also, I suppose, running afoul of their own intersectional claims.
02:42:35.100
And it isn't obvious that men are doing that well on the Democrat side.
02:42:39.660
And that's because the Democrats don't really seem to like men.
02:42:42.360
And so maybe it's like, well, they've done everything they could, you might say, from an ideological perspective to attack,
02:42:49.640
to attract the black vote, but they've abandoned the male vote.
02:42:54.200
And maybe the black men are men first and black second from the intersectional perspective,
02:42:59.300
or at least 23% of them seem to be considering that.
02:43:02.720
Well, it's an interesting prospect because gender is actually real.
02:43:10.480
So we're told that gender is fluid, but it's actually race that over time is fluid.
02:43:20.580
Barack Obama is going to be very disappointed in black men because we know that he...
02:43:30.600
Like, there's nothing men hate more than being nagged.
02:43:34.080
And Barack Obama is literally wagging his finger in the faces of black men saying,
02:43:40.100
That, if you want to speak to men and motivate men, that's the very last way to do it.
02:43:46.400
She got up there and lectured black men about how they were irresponsible and terrible,
02:43:49.620
which, of course, is definitely what they want to hear from Michelle Obama.
02:43:52.900
By the way, CNN is now reporting that Harris has some warning signs in Michigan.
02:43:56.280
She's underperforming Joe Biden in a place like Washtenaw County, which is a very heavily
02:44:01.300
So, obviously, as goes Michigan, so goes the country.
02:44:08.100
You know what's strange about the polling, though?
02:44:09.760
What's very odd in terms of black voters is that Kamala Harris came out and she said
02:44:14.280
that the brothers were supporting her because she had recently been in the barbershop.
02:44:24.380
though my gut instinct tells me Kamala Harris has never once in her entire life been in
02:44:29.360
And it would seem that the hard numbers we're getting here suggest the brothers breaking,
02:44:33.940
at least in a significant way, for President Trump.
02:44:36.180
By the way, New York Times needle in Iowa, estimated margin, Trump up nine in Iowa.
02:44:41.060
Remember that time when he was supposed to lose by three?
02:44:42.880
That is an 11 to 12 point miss by Ann Seltzer in Iowa.
02:44:46.620
And remember, that was being used as a bellwether to determine whether there was going to be
02:44:50.220
extra turnout for her in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
02:44:53.300
So if he's winning Iowa, Emerson, right, had Iowa at plus nine.
02:44:57.400
Emerson also had Donald Trump winning all three of those Rust Belt states.
02:45:00.860
Let me jump in here and let me jump in here and get you a couple of calls from our desk
02:45:05.400
here, because, Chris, you've got a couple of calls for us here.
02:45:09.200
Merritt TV now calling the state of Missouri and its 10 electoral votes for Donald Trump.
02:45:15.540
That's with 20 percent of the precinct reporting.
02:45:17.300
And also Delaware and its three electoral college votes for Kamala Harris.
02:45:24.380
Dr. Phil, I should also point out that North Carolina, we're getting really close to closing
02:45:29.060
That one's leaning towards Trump at last report.
02:45:31.620
We're getting really close to closing out Colorado.
02:45:33.820
And at the top of the hour, which is now just one minute away, polls will be closing in Montana,
02:45:39.080
Idaho, Nevada, most of, I'm sorry, most of Idaho, Utah, and Nevada.
02:45:46.420
And, you know, guys, if, Ben, if we close out North Carolina for Trump soon, that can
02:46:00.580
So as far as we're concerned, we're not talking about North Carolina anymore.
02:46:05.580
But yeah, basically, practically speaking, you take North Carolina off the table for Kamala
02:46:10.840
Harris, and she has one path and one path only.
02:46:15.320
And right now, she wins all three, but loses Virginia.
02:46:17.560
Well, I mean, well, right now, there are some more CNN exit poll numbers, again, with
02:46:27.980
Kamala Harris is losing married voters 55 to 44.
02:46:31.340
She's winning non-married voters by 55 to 41, which is actually shockingly not horrific.
02:46:37.400
Yeah, you would have thought that was like a 25, 30 point gap, by the way they were pushing
02:46:40.520
Meanwhile, the gender gap definitely exists, but it is heavier, according to CNN, for males
02:46:48.580
It is 54 to 44 among females for Kamala Harris.
02:46:52.120
So again, this is going to be, if Trump wins, it's because men showed up to vote.
02:46:59.060
So the kind of going theory of the Democratic Party is that women are high propensity voters.
02:47:06.080
Women have constituted the majority of people who vote in the last several election cycles.
02:47:10.300
Men showing up en masse to vote is a complete shift in the way that elections are doing.
02:47:14.540
Can I just say, by the way, that we tend, when we talk about this, to sound like we're
02:47:19.580
I'm actually, I believe that it's a man's responsibility.
02:47:23.440
No, it's a man's responsibility to do things like vote.
02:47:27.180
And we happen to live in this time where men have essentially given up so many of their
02:47:33.580
And in part because they feel disenfranchised, although that's hardly an excuse.
02:47:37.620
You know, men have given up their leadership role in the church, which is one of the reasons
02:47:41.160
that you see the church in America no longer taking the stands for tradition and decency
02:47:47.760
They've given up their responsibility in the household, which is something that the Kamala
02:47:51.300
Harris, at least PACs aligned with Kamala Harris, have been trying to openly exploit with
02:47:56.360
their, hey, ladies, just don't tell your loser, idiot, husband who you vote for.
02:48:00.360
And they've certainly given up their responsibility, their civic responsibilities.
02:48:05.720
It used to be that one of the backbones of the country was men engaging in civic social
02:48:13.380
There's an update coming out of the RNC right now.
02:48:16.380
Michael Watley, chairman of the RNC, says there were potential shenanigans in Pennsylvania
02:48:21.360
and the Republicans have just scored a legal victory.
02:48:24.320
According to Mr. Chairman Watley, Center County officials were planning to stop counting ballots
02:48:30.160
throughout the night in violation of state law.
02:48:35.480
Officials have agreed to continue the count as required.
02:48:38.260
Our attorneys will continue fighting to quickly eliminate issues at the polls as they arrive.
02:48:44.400
Speaking of Pennsylvania, our friend Ryan Gerdusky, formerly of CNN, he says that Lackawanna,
02:48:51.000
Pennsylvania, which is the first county in Pennsylvania that is near to completion, that
02:48:55.220
has shifted from a Biden plus 8.4 to a Harris plus 3.
02:48:59.640
That is a 5.4 percentage shift toward President Trump.
02:49:03.800
Again, the trend lines, you hate to read trend lines, but I'm becoming, you know,
02:49:16.160
And guys, I'm going to have to wrap out of here to talk to somebody.
02:49:19.120
But before I do, Matt Walsh, I just have to congratulate you on your movie,
02:49:25.840
It's a comedy to DEI for what an absolute masterpiece.
02:49:30.800
Congratulations on what a success with that movie.
02:49:37.280
So thank you for that work and congratulations on the success.
02:49:42.740
And we are, in fact, paying all of our guests to say that.
02:49:53.080
Dr. Phil, thanks for making time for us on this important night.
02:50:01.540
You know, we can take it lightly that Senator Cruz won his third term in Texas.
02:50:08.360
And so the fact that they keep pouring money down rat holes in non-competitive states
02:50:12.100
because they get a little bit over their skis is quite a good thing
02:50:15.060
because all those dollars could have gone to Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
02:50:18.060
So the fact that they decided to spend it there instead is a good thing.
02:50:21.580
The New York Times needle continues to steadily, slowly creep toward the right,
02:50:30.960
And, you know, we're going to have to at some point split screen what they're doing over at MSNBC
02:50:34.220
and just find out how they're dealing with the emerging evening.
02:50:38.380
You know, the New York Times headline right now is Trump wins Florida and Texas.
02:50:42.580
So they're not saying anything about North Carolina yet, although, again, very likely that it's going to win.
02:50:47.800
Moreno is up right now in the vote in Ohio by about five percentage points in Ohio.
02:50:57.000
In Pennsylvania, Bob Casey is up by two, but only 43 percent of the vote in.
02:51:03.180
Tammy Baldwin up by 1.1, only 37 percent of the vote in.
02:51:08.140
And, guys, I have a feeling we may be in for a bit of a long night here, the sort of hopes that just because they move so damn slowly in these Rust Belt states.
02:51:18.140
Sean Trend, excellent poll analyst over at RealClearPolitik, says if Trump wins, which looks increasingly likely with every minute,
02:51:23.820
it's going to be with the most racially diverse Republican coalition in a very, very long time.
02:51:28.040
When you mention we might be here for a long night, at least you're not saying we might be here for a long five nights.
02:51:33.120
Because if, let's say, Wisconsin goes the way that it's looking, even though it's early, then we know tonight.
02:51:39.040
I spoke with Senator Marsha Blackburn earlier on my show today.
02:51:42.080
And Senator Blackburn, I said, are we going to be doing weeks of this?
02:51:45.280
She said, Michael, my prediction is by midnight tonight you're going to get to 270.
02:51:49.740
And I was skeptical at the time, but it is increasingly looking like we very much could know the next president tonight.
02:51:58.000
Well, the good news is that Joy Reid is saying that Florida has an extreme right-wing fascist government.
02:52:07.500
The amount of joy in the Democratic Party these days is truly off the charts.
02:52:16.640
I want to circle back to this idea, though, that we had to sue them to force them to keep doing their legal job.
02:52:24.920
Threaten to sue them in order to get them to live up to their legal obligation to continue counting tonight.
02:52:29.500
They don't care about the appearance of impropriety.
02:52:34.880
And I think, again, this goes to a deeper point here.
02:52:36.960
So if President Trump does pull it off, obviously it's the greatest story probably in the history of American electoral politics.
02:52:42.460
Because the first time was fluky and weird, and that was an amazing story.
02:52:50.660
And by the way, they didn't try to throw Grover Cleveland into prison four times.
02:52:56.500
But I think that we may be in danger of overlooking the actual big story in the magic of President Trump.
02:53:03.000
And that is how just unbelievably much the Democrats suck.
02:53:08.660
I mean, like, the fact that they don't go back to the drawing board.
02:53:12.000
They have Donald Trump, who they think of as the richest environment.
02:53:21.980
And they got, again, they are just the monkey's paw.
02:53:24.920
Every time they wish on the monkey's paw, it comes through in the worst possible way for them if he ends up.
02:53:29.140
But I think that we ought to focus for just a minute on how much they suck because we're focusing a lot on the president, really, like, as their program, how bad it is, how much of this is not a reaction about how wonderful Trump is as much as it is just a reaction to how terrible they've been.
02:53:50.280
So, again, like, I think that half the story needs to be that because what I would love is for the Democratic Party to self-correct.
02:53:57.020
It would be better for the country if the Democratic Party, instead of attributing it to the magic powers of President Trump, self-corrected and said, you know what, guys, we've lost the thread here and we need to start reentering the realm of reason.
02:54:08.100
If Kamala loses and if she's losing a huge portion of the black vote and all these things are happening, it's because the Democrats haven't done anything to make people's lives better.
02:54:19.320
And that's the basic thing you're supposed to be doing.
02:54:23.960
It's the basic pitch is I'm going to make your life better.
02:54:27.820
And the Democrat pitch is always just resentment and victimization.
02:54:34.100
The question is who would lead the Democratic self-examination?
02:54:44.200
The New York Times, the L.A. Times, the Washington Post, Harvard University, CBS.
02:54:52.280
Well, see, I think there is a thing that could be done, and it's the top levels of the Democratic Party.
02:54:57.920
So what they showed in ousting Joe Biden, we all called it a coup because it kind of was, but it kind of wasn't, meaning that's how a functional party works.
02:55:04.680
The upper echelons of the party ousted their man, and then they put somebody else in because that's the upper echelons of their party.
02:55:11.160
If you keep losing elections to Donald Trump, perhaps the upper echelons of the party might want to take another look at how things are going.
02:55:17.720
By the way, here's an interesting exit poll out of New York.
02:55:20.100
So there have been some exit polls on the Jewish vote.
02:55:22.300
Obviously, I have a bit of a dog in this particular fight.
02:55:24.740
The current exit polls out of the state of New York have Donald Trump winning 43 percent of the Jewish vote in the state of New York.
02:55:29.760
That is by far the most populous Jewish state in the country.
02:55:34.180
I'm disappointed in the Jews who voted for Kamala Harris.
02:55:37.580
But then again, I predicted that Trump's ceiling with the Jewish vote, just because so few Jews actually care about Judaism or Israel, was going to be about 40 percent anyway.
02:55:46.300
So if Trump approximates anywhere in that neighborhood, that's a huge shift, considering that usually the Jews go like 70 percent for the Democrats in any possible election.
02:55:55.340
The New York Times, by the way, has now moved its needle, estimating that President Trump is likely to actually win the popular vote.
02:56:01.540
Again, if he wins the popular vote and the Electoral College, if he wins the popular vote and the Electoral College, that's the first time a Republican has won both the popular vote and the Electoral College since 2004.
02:56:14.800
And at that point, panic has got to be setting in for the Democratic Party, especially because they can't even claim this is a low turnout election.
02:56:21.080
This is an extraordinarily high turnout election.
02:56:23.360
Highest turnout election ever is what this is going to end up being.
02:56:26.040
And, you know, you have to remember, the Democrat Party is governed by its minority.
02:56:30.240
The radicals in the Democrat Party are the minority.
02:56:32.860
They are not the most number of people or the most number of politicians.
02:56:35.460
But now the Democrat minorities are becoming Republicans, which is even better.
02:56:39.660
The estimated Trump margin of victory for the New York Times right now, they're suggesting Trump plus 1.8 in Pennsylvania right now.
02:56:50.000
By the way, are they, if you know, are they having AI analyze this?
02:56:57.560
I have no clue how they're doing any of this stuff.
02:57:00.640
And if they are, it actually adds a little more credibility in my opinion.
02:57:10.860
Well, we're waiting on the Senate race in Montana.
02:57:20.580
Because I think this is actually worth taking a moment and seeing exactly where we stand right now.
02:57:30.620
There's nothing here that's particularly surprising.
02:57:38.700
They're not going in directions that we, they're not defying wildly what our expectations were.
02:57:43.600
This race was always most likely to come down to what happens in the Rust Belt.
02:57:49.740
And it looks like that's exactly what's going to happen.
02:57:52.420
The betting markets for the moment have President Trump a heavy, heavy favorite.
02:57:55.600
So, you know, Polymarket has President Trump at like an 80 percent favorite.
02:58:00.240
But, again, the numbers continue to move in President Trump's direction.
02:58:03.760
If the theory of the Democrats was that high turnout favors the Democrats, they were totally, totally wrong.
02:58:09.760
Yeah, because it was interesting what his name Brent was saying before, the pollster was saying before,
02:58:15.600
that they were right up to a point and then not right.
02:58:20.740
And then if it went higher than 2020, it was unknown territory.
02:58:24.380
You know, a friend of mine, a very good financial professional, a very good investor,
02:58:29.120
was pointing out to me last week that he was feeling increasingly good about Trump's chances.
02:58:38.120
And you had that crazy Iowa poll that worried us all so much.
02:58:40.840
Not even because of Polymarket or any of the betting markets.
02:58:45.140
But because financial markets seemed to be pricing in a Trump victory.
02:58:49.840
And not only were the rich people putting their money there, but the rich people were putting op-eds in the Washington Post,
02:58:55.660
like Jeff Bezos' op-ed, decision not to endorse.
02:58:58.120
That it seemed as though institutional financial interests, with a lot of information, much more information than any of us,
02:59:05.060
seemed to see a good chance of a Trump victory.
02:59:08.300
Well, listen, the minute that Jim Cramer said that it was likely that Harris was going to win, it was over.
02:59:12.520
Right, we knew that it would have dumped all our money.
02:59:13.940
At that point, you just throw your money into the market against Jim Cramer because no one has ever gone broke betting against Jim Cramer.
02:59:19.980
It was the most obvious pick in the entire world.
02:59:22.640
So, again, as these results continue to flow in, it's exactly what you probably would have thought at this point in time.
02:59:29.640
The Democrats had put a hell of a lot of faith in North Carolina, in possibly flipping Georgia.
02:59:35.040
Remember, she's already doing worse than Biden.
02:59:36.480
It's just a question of how much worse she does than Biden.
02:59:41.440
He won a bunch of states that Trump had won in 2016.
02:59:46.620
Those states are gradually coming off the table for Kamala Harris at this point.
02:59:51.440
An interesting thought experiment is, would the Democrats be doing better now if they had just kept Biden?
02:59:58.100
It's a serious question, really, because where she is picking up votes is in the suburbs.
03:00:05.080
And it turns out, like, I thought an early indicator in this election that she had a massive problem on her hands was the Teamsters Union.
03:00:11.700
They did a poll of the Teamsters Union members when it was Trump versus Biden.
03:00:16.140
And Biden was leading Trump something like 47 to 35 or something.
03:00:19.400
And then they did another poll after they flipped out Biden in favor of Kamala Harris.
03:00:23.760
And suddenly, Trump was beating the living hell out of Kamala Harris, beating her like 60 to 40 among the Teamsters.
03:00:29.280
Why? Because guess what? Every Teamster is a dude.
03:00:32.100
And it turns out that it's not just – it's not they don't want a woman president.
03:00:35.580
They don't want this woman president who seems to scorn men.
03:00:38.020
This entire campaign has been about how much they hate men.
03:00:40.660
I hate to break it to everybody, but if you watch anything about this campaign, it is not just about an appeal to single women.
03:00:47.520
When they trot out Doug Emhoff and say this guy is an example of masculinity, while he's allegedly beating women and knocking up the nanny.
03:00:53.840
And then meanwhile, they're suggesting that you're garbage if you're voting for Donald Trump.
03:00:57.400
Or when they trot out Tim Walls as an example of masculinity, the assistant football coach who can't even properly use football terminology and who can't even control his limbs, breaks into uncontrollable spasms every so often.
03:01:09.740
And his obnoxious wife, turn the page, turn the – like, could you have found a more obnoxious group of human beings to set upon the United States?
03:01:24.060
He's actually less obnoxious now that he's senile than he was before he was senile, and he's certainly less obnoxious than this crew.
03:01:29.100
Yeah, I think Biden probably would be doing better for all the reasons you point out, which means that –
03:01:35.040
Maybe one of the – maybe the most disastrous political strategic decision made in modern times was for Biden to challenge Trump to a debate before the convention.
03:01:48.540
Especially because if he hadn't done that, then he's still in there.
03:01:50.500
Yes, but was it Biden who challenged Trump or was it the Democrat apparatus?
03:01:55.060
Yeah, I think we better find out or let people know what we already know.
03:01:59.000
What's so disturbing to me about this issue of men is the closing pitch that you saw the Democrats make to young men, which was essentially, here's your weed and your porn, go have your little pleasure palette.
03:02:11.220
And if that had worked, that would have been the most demoralizing thing, I think, for the future of the next generation.
03:02:17.780
And part of what I am actually pretty optimistic about is that young men seem to really reject that cynical play for their vote.
03:02:27.420
I mean, this is the first generation of young men that we have seen that are more religious than young women.
03:02:32.960
It's the first that we've seen that are more pro-life than boomer men, than Gen X men.
03:02:41.420
Also, men don't want to be told that their chief priorities are porn and pot.
03:02:48.820
Even if they're potheads and they look at porn every day, they're probably at some level ashamed of that fact.
03:02:56.220
And, you know, even just generationally, there's only so long people can live without meaning.
03:02:59.580
You know, they have really sold us a life without meaning.
03:03:06.520
Your body has no valence as a spiritual entity.
03:03:10.820
You were born a man, but you have no manly responsibilities.
03:03:13.640
You're born a woman, but you have no womanly role.
03:03:23.320
They've done something that's truly amazing with single women,
03:03:26.600
which is that they've, in order to overcome that spiritual emptiness,
03:03:29.840
they've actually treated abortion as a sacrament.
03:03:36.380
Because no one thinks pornography is a sacrament.
03:03:49.780
Because what it is is a sacrifice you make on behalf of your own individuality.
03:03:53.640
That's the thing that they've sold to a bunch of young women.
03:03:56.040
I think it's a horrifying, I think it's a terrible sales point for every possible reason.
03:04:04.320
If you run a commercial to young men, and you suggest that, you know,
03:04:08.040
young men are going to be stopped from masturbating to pornography,
03:04:10.880
which is, they ran a literal commercial along these lines.
03:04:13.540
That if there will be a Republican legislator who takes away your phone and stops you,
03:04:18.440
I feel like 80% of the public might be on the side of the guy taking away your phone and stopping you.
03:04:28.520
And that's not even a case for making things illegal.
03:04:30.560
That's just a case for what people think of the activity.
03:04:33.800
Nobody thinks the activity is like an affirmative good.
03:04:37.300
And so for Democrats to paint that as like the essence of the human experience for males,
03:04:40.900
we'll deprive you of the meaning of being a husband.
03:04:44.080
We'll deprive you of the meaning of being a father.
03:04:45.520
We'll deprive you of the meaning of being a provider.
03:04:47.120
We'll deprive you of the meaning of being a defender of your home.
03:04:53.300
Who, like, what man in his heart feels like, what a great message.
03:04:57.680
You know, speaking of vice, though, the biggest surprise result so far for me tonight,
03:05:01.700
and I say this with special joy as an owner and founder of Mayflower Cigars,
03:05:07.120
which is now competing with the devil's lettuce in a lot of markets, that—
03:05:15.060
I thought they were going to vote to legalize the sin spinach throughout the state,
03:05:23.980
Well, because the voters there can look at where it's been—like I said before,
03:05:29.120
You can look at where it's been legalized, marijuana, or decriminalized all across the country.
03:05:33.600
It has demonstrably made those communities worse.
03:05:40.440
And I say this as someone who—I admit that I was in favor of weed legalization only, like,
03:05:45.800
two or three years ago because—and I bought a lot of the arguments that,
03:05:51.220
I don't particularly like it, but it doesn't—
03:05:53.180
But then they do it, and you go around to these communities,
03:05:55.720
and they're just completely consumed by this stuff.
03:05:57.840
It has obviously made everyone's life worse, especially the people who actually do it.
03:06:02.400
There's something else that's happening in Florida, too,
03:06:04.020
which is the Republicans who move there are saying no.
03:06:06.500
You're not opening our—you try to get your foot in the door, we will cut off your foot.
03:06:13.500
I want you to know, 40 years ago when I began radio,
03:06:16.840
I asked my audience, which has always been largely conservative,
03:06:20.360
would you rather catch your teenage child smoking a cigarette or a joint?
03:06:33.880
And it was one of the only times where I knew 90% of my audience disagreed with me.
03:06:41.820
But, I mean, they still respected me and all that,
03:06:45.480
but they just thought I had lost my mind on that issue.
03:07:00.920
One-third of cigarette smokers will die prematurely,
03:07:05.640
That is sad, but I rather gamble on my child 40 years from now
03:07:15.600
than losing his spirit, his energy, his drive, his mind at 18.
03:07:24.200
So according to Nate Cohn, chief political analyst for the New York Times,
03:07:29.100
but in the first few counties where voting is complete,
03:07:31.040
along with hundreds of completed precincts across the state,
03:07:33.140
a state, Trump is running ever so slightly better
03:07:45.220
in a variety of states that Trump is likely to win.
03:07:48.320
They're estimating that he's likely to win Wisconsin.
03:07:50.060
They're estimating that he's likely to win Michigan.
03:07:51.820
Their estimated margin of victory right now in Wisconsin
03:07:58.220
the New York Times is currently estimating in Pennsylvania,
03:08:04.480
Again, the numbers are moving in Trump's favor.
03:08:12.020
And then, of course, we have a moral obligation
03:08:19.100
What percentage of votes in Pennsylvania counted?
03:08:27.480
We're currently at 48% of the vote in Michigan.
03:08:33.440
the New York Times is estimating the biggest lead
03:09:04.740
They're right on the verge of lean R in Pennsylvania,
03:09:12.440
the way that they're coming in for President Trump,
03:09:13.880
he's going to be the President of the United States.
03:09:21.020
If he does win, what will they say is the reason?
03:09:26.360
So they're going to blame it on the American people.
03:09:33.700
Right now he's got the chance to win the popular vote.
03:09:41.840
So they tried social media in 2016 and it failed.
03:09:43.980
And they tried the Russians in 2016 and it failed.
03:09:51.040
Well, you know, we're going to cut here right here
03:09:56.180
so I feel a moral obligation to give Ted his moment in the sun.
03:10:10.100
And let me be crystal clear about what that mandate means.
03:11:40.760
We will produce and we will lead the entire world.
03:12:10.680
The right to speak truth in an age of enforced lies.
03:12:47.800
Again, we are very thankful for tonight's sponsors.
03:12:54.740
If there's one thing we can all agree on this election season,
03:13:01.280
That's why we've partnered with Tax Network USA.
03:13:04.320
Just like the Daily Wire fights for your beliefs
03:13:08.180
will fight for you if you're struggling with the IRS.
03:13:10.700
They have teams of attorneys and expert negotiators
03:24:41.080
one of the things that you've been very focused on
03:25:32.600
making sure that we have some kind of security,
04:13:45.960
Do you realize how close these people are to us?
04:14:04.040
And it's all because of the Daily Wire Plus members.
04:14:07.040
If you haven't joined yet, now's the time to do it.
04:14:16.880
There, you know, the Churchill is magnificent of the Mayflower cigars.
04:14:32.300
Did someone just put a little pappy in front of me?
04:14:42.880
The wonderful people at the Daily Wire brought in a bunch of fresh glasses
04:14:45.600
for this delicious Kentucky bourbon that I insist you partake.
04:14:53.540
but that was before Tim brought out like a $2,000 bottle.
04:14:58.500
You might as well light up a cigar while you're at it.
04:15:09.640
which is sold out now, so no one can get it, unfortunately.
04:15:48.180
because I do, and I know the things and the smoking jacket.
04:15:54.560
Yeah, we're waiting on something to celebrate officially.
04:15:59.180
I'm so ashamed that we let him not only go over there,
04:16:02.360
but take us all on that journey of hearing him pedal his cigars.
04:16:06.620
It's like, the worst part is they're good cigars.
04:16:07.940
If I didn't notice that company, I'd be so upset right now.
04:16:16.940
So far, God willing, it is an excellent, excellent evening.
04:16:23.500
And the Senate races are continuing to look good.
04:16:25.640
The House races right now, the House is still up in the air.
04:16:27.920
About 165 Republican House seats that are going to be retained.
04:16:31.580
About 110 for the Democrats, and Democrats need about 43 in order to take the House.
04:16:40.920
They've won two, so it's still very early for a lot of the House races.
04:16:43.680
But as Ted Cruz suggests, if Trump does well, if the Republicans do well in the Senate,
04:16:47.700
there's every indicator that they're going to outperform.
04:16:50.200
Republicans are outperforming, by the way, including New York City.
04:16:57.620
Cabot, you said you had some interesting information for us.
04:17:01.600
One, CNN just did a very dour report from the Harris headquarters.
04:17:06.400
They said that it was, quote, completely silent at her watch party.
04:17:10.960
We also saw an email from the campaign manager for Harris, Jen O'Malley Dillon,
04:17:15.580
telling the campaign staff to, quote, get some sleep and get ready to close out strong tomorrow.
04:17:20.840
So it sounds like they're telling their campaign staff, all right, you can go home.
04:17:30.500
Dow futures have also soared 600 points in the last two hours.
04:17:35.280
So clearly the crypto and actual markets are thriving now.
04:17:41.380
One more interesting exit poll that we haven't talked about yet,
04:17:46.520
For voters who said that democracy in the U.S. is threatened,
04:17:59.740
Because they asked the question if democracy is the most important thing.
04:18:04.440
And I said, well, that doesn't mean they think that Kamala Harris is the best thing for democracy.
04:18:14.640
Like, this is sort of, you know, we'll all go back.
04:18:16.860
It's also good for Drew to be right about politics once every four years.
04:18:39.120
this complete stranger would come over periodically and say,
04:18:46.660
I will say that we haven't talked enough about crypto.
04:18:49.960
if Donald Trump wins, Bitcoin will hit 80 bucks this week.
04:18:54.600
Because the kind of people who engage in the crypto markets
04:19:03.820
And I think that just like so many aspects of our economy
04:19:07.560
have been artificially suppressed by the horrible threat
04:19:12.320
of more regulation, worse fiduciary policy over time.
04:19:21.760
that the left is going to regulate them out of existence.
04:19:25.580
that the left is going to regulate them out of existence.
04:19:29.240
that the left is going to regulate him out of existence.
04:19:37.960
I will add, I went to a lot of Trump rallies this cycle.
04:19:41.260
The single loudest moment of any Trump rally that I heard
04:19:46.560
It was Trump speaking at the International Bitcoin Conference
04:19:49.440
here in National when he promised to protect cryptocurrency.
04:19:53.840
He was going to fire a number of SEC employees.
04:20:01.120
it was the loudest applause that I heard of the entire cycle.
04:20:17.780
Michael, this QR code, I will give you your first Bitcoin.
04:20:25.720
I talked to Michael a few days later at the office.
04:20:42.440
he could have left $100,000 on the table for free.
04:20:45.220
Someone at that conference picked up that QR code.
04:20:48.300
Listen, while Michael Knowles has terrible judgment
04:20:51.040
and Andrew Klavan's only right every once in a while,
04:21:06.180
What isn't said enough is that online freedom isn't free either.
04:21:11.680
but by a certain technological force, encryption.
04:21:14.280
Strong encryption can protect your right to privacy online
05:32:10.460
I'm holding my ear because it's so loud in here
05:32:14.960
we already know that Trump and JD Vance are en route to the election night party
05:32:25.980
pretty much everyone in the room has said that they think that Trump has won
05:32:37.800
he's recently added his signature golf swing move
05:32:45.720
well New York Times is now saying a 93% chance of a Trump victory
05:32:53.700
one hates to say the writings on the wall and get cocky when there are still votes that need to be
05:32:57.900
tabulated but I wanted to come to you because I saw Trump on the screen
05:33:03.480
I will definitely want to come to you when the president walks out on the stage
05:33:09.400
what are the top issues that seem to have moved voters
05:33:11.880
well you know obviously the economy and immigration are the issues that we hear about the most
05:33:25.880
you know this is an issue that's really motivating voters to the polls
05:33:30.820
he thinks that's a whole hidden vote there that Trump really tapped into
05:33:34.640
and also the trans issues are really pushing people to the polls
05:33:43.620
the left talks about how Trump has no chance with women
05:33:49.900
specifically about the health of American people
05:33:58.000
pushing irreversible gender transition procedures on kids
05:34:13.040
and I think that very phrasing has pushed people to the polls
05:34:16.600
I mean I was talking to Terry Schilling earlier
05:34:18.700
he's the president of the American Principles Project
05:34:21.140
he told me they put 18 million dollars behind ads
05:34:25.200
telling the American public how radical these transgender messaging is
05:34:30.300
he said he got so many people to go out to the polls
05:34:37.260
I'm really interested in seeing the aftermath of this election
05:34:39.860
and seeing the Democrats who learned their lesson
05:34:46.400
Americans do not want men in their daughters' bathrooms
05:34:49.280
and they don't want kids undergoing this type of thing
05:34:53.460
I'm told that they're driving people to the polls
05:34:56.520
you know these are things that are top of the mind for Americans
05:35:10.740
Mary Margaret Fox is saying that Catholics may swing Michigan for Trump
05:35:16.820
why would Catholics not be open to a Kamala presidency
05:35:19.760
well there's a lot of reasons Catholics wouldn't want Kamala for president
05:35:28.780
and what that means is abortion up until or after nine months
05:35:34.360
but unfortunately there's many many states in the United States
05:35:59.400
by the way that's according to Decision Desk HQ
05:36:30.240
I think we're going to see the end of the election tonight
05:36:43.000
because it would mean that Andrew Klavan was correct
05:36:56.260
well what you were saying about Harris and Michigan
05:37:01.760
Gretchen Whitmer had a major faux pas there recently
05:37:18.300
Michigan Catholics not going for Kamala in this election
05:37:22.000
but that's another thing I guess we'll have to see
05:37:27.140
and I know it's something we talked about a lot at the Daily Wire
05:37:33.860
and right now we're going to welcome back Ben Shapiro
05:37:48.280
you're being proved right about people blaming America
05:38:03.720
because it is a really interesting thing in this election
05:38:06.500
you know I noticed even watching football on Sundays