As the final votes are counted and a nation waits for the outcome, join us to break down the live election results as only Ben Shapiro, Matt Walsh, Michael Knowles, Andrew Klavan, and Jeremy Boren can. With special guests appearing live in studio, Dr. Jordan B. Peterson, Dennis Prager, and Spencer Clayton, Daily Wire, Election Night 2024 gets real-time results and exclusive insights from the most trusted names in media.
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00:00:23.740November 5th. The night America's fate is decided. As the final votes are counted and a nation waits for the outcome, join us to break down the live election results as only Ben Shapiro, Matt Walsh, Michael Knowles, Andrew Klavan, and Jeremy Boren can.
00:00:40.760With special guests appearing live in studio, Dr. Jordan B. Peterson, Dennis Prager, and Spencer Clayton. Daily Wire, Election Night 2024.
00:00:50.320Get real-time results and exclusive insights from the most trusted names in media.
00:00:56.360This is more than an election. It's history in the making.
00:01:00.560Join the Daily Wire as each vote is counted, each state called, and each race decided.
00:01:05.320Daily Wire, Election Night 2024. Tomorrow at 6 Eastern, 5 Central.
00:01:09.900In just over 20 hours, polls will open for Election Day.
00:01:14.140Because Democrats changed the election rules four years ago, more than half the country has already voted.
00:01:19.500That means just under half the country will be voting tomorrow.
00:01:23.920So one last time, I would like to remind everyone why I voted for Donald Trump.
00:01:29.280Donald Trump was the best president of my lifetime.
00:01:33.160He created 7 million new jobs, more than three times what analysts had predicted.
00:01:38.480Real wages rose more than they had in 40 years.
00:01:42.120Unemployment reached the lowest level it had in 50 years.
00:01:45.300Unemployment for black people, Hispanics, Asians, veterans, the disabled, and Americans without a high school diploma all hit record lows.
00:01:54.900The median household income reached record highs.
00:10:49.400Everybody around him loves this man, including obviously his family.
00:10:54.400But he's just able to make that connection with people that most candidates will never be able to do.
00:11:01.120And I don't know if it's because of his long history of building and making jobs, but he's out there every single day talking to the people, getting to know their families.
00:11:12.660So it's a special person that can do that.
00:12:24.420I thought, that's not the sort of thing you can calculate.
00:12:28.300That's got to be just in your character.
00:12:30.720That has to just be in your behavior for however many decades.
00:12:34.600On the point about the family, Keith, I'd love to get your insight.
00:12:38.680Because it seemed to me when the media were saying this is a man of bad character and, you know, people around him don't like him or whatever.
00:12:44.420I thought, look, I've met a lot of politicians.
00:12:47.920Most politicians have terrible family lives.
00:12:51.240And maybe it's just something about the job or it's an occupational hazard or I don't know what.
00:12:55.560But having spent a little bit of time with President Trump's kids at different times over the years, I've always been impressed by the kids, by how well they have done, how relatively normal they are given their eccentric upbringing, and by how much love and respect they obviously have for their father.
00:13:15.260I don't know that I've ever seen a comparison among other politicians.
00:13:18.180So tell me a little bit about that family dynamic.
00:13:20.340Well, you know, obviously they learned that hard work ethic at a very young age.
00:13:27.580I know Eric Don and Ivanka, as soon as they were able to, while they were in university and maybe even earlier, were out working at some of his properties.
00:16:18.220It's like it's because of the parenting and the people that their two parents were.
00:16:23.200They're very, very strict on the kids, but great people of integrity.
00:16:27.560You know, this confirms something I've suspected about President Trump and the Trump family, which I really like.
00:16:33.060And it drives the D.C. establishment crazy because they want President Trump to have a five-bullet-point manifesto on the back of a napkin and be some political dweeb who has some hyper-focused ideology or whatever.
00:16:46.200And I think I actually don't want that in my politicians.
00:16:48.600What I want in my politicians is a good gut, and I want courage, which is the prerequisite for all of the other virtues.
00:16:54.860I want someone who is going to make the right decision in the moment.
00:16:59.280And I think time again, you use the example of the Marine with the hat, or obviously you use the example of Butler, Pennsylvania.
00:17:05.840This is a man who demonstrates courage literally under fire.
00:17:08.720You know, this is someone that you want to be able to trust to make those decisions, to make the – even, you know, Ivanka in the car driving on the Super Bowl to just know, hey, you know, a really generous and gracious thing to do would be to go over and take an hour or two out of my day so this guy can be with his family.
00:17:25.820I want someone who instinctively is doing the right stuff.
00:17:28.300So before I let you go, I know it's a very busy time, Keith, but before I let you go, what is your sense, having been the director of Oval Office Operations, what is the sense right now, maybe of the president or of his family?
00:17:44.000We are 20 hours out from election day beginning.
00:17:47.720I don't – every – I want to feel – I feel good.
00:17:50.940I guess I have this kind of brimming hope in me, but I just don't know.
00:17:54.340It seems like everything's topsy-turvy.
00:17:58.300Well, I can tell you, and I'm sure you've heard this all day long, it's going to come down to Pennsylvania, right?
00:18:03.900I think Mr. Trump, everything, assuming everything is on the level and people get out there and do what they have to do, he's going to win.
00:18:12.420He's going to win the Electoral College.
00:18:56.400You know, I would take a guy who is instinctively a patriot and who has a demonstrably good gut demonstrated over many decades over any nerd from the Beltway establishment who, I don't know, read five more dusty old books on some wonkish nonsense policy out of a think tank.
00:19:16.540You know, this guy very clearly has America's interests at heart.
00:19:21.440He could have just retired to one of his many beautiful properties.
00:22:22.860Well, the pollster, J. Ann Selzer, says,
00:22:24.700It's hard for anybody to say they saw this coming, but Kamala has clearly leapt into a leading position.
00:22:31.420The methodology here was a little bit different.
00:22:33.340The methodology was taking voters at their word when they said that they were definitely going to vote.
00:22:38.240So a voter comes out and says, I'm definitely going to vote, and here's my preference.
00:22:42.780The poll just says that person is going to vote.
00:22:45.580Often polls will weight different voters by their likelihood historically rather than their stated likelihood.
00:22:54.020Now, on the flip side, that's the bad news is from the Des Moines Register, and it's a reason that Republicans need to get out there and vote, especially Republican men who aren't voting enough.
00:23:02.640However, then you get a story from the New York Times which shows that the Republicans are looking good and President Trump is looking good.
00:24:08.740So when conservatives such as myself objected to Democrats rigging the 2020 election, what we meant by rigging the election, as we have stated many times, is that they changed all the rules.
00:24:21.260In some cases, illegally or unconstitutionally, as in the case of widespread mailings in Pennsylvania in 2020.
00:24:27.620But they changed the rules, even in some cases legally, to give advantages to Democrats.
00:25:06.300Will widespread mail-ins, will greater ease of ballot harvesting mean that lower information, lower likelihood voters who usually sit things out are going to have their votes submitted for them or perhaps by them?
00:25:22.460Is it going to mean that college students are going to vote at far higher rates, college students much more likely to vote for Democrats because they're young and ignorant?
00:26:01.820Over the years, he's had this pet squirrel.
00:26:03.920He rescued a little squirrel who was going to die in the wild, I guess, and took him home and made a lot of TikToks about him and his raccoon, Fred.
00:26:12.720And then the government came in, bust down his doors, take his animals.
00:26:17.340Then I guess the squirrel bit one of the capturers and then they killed the squirrel.
00:26:21.540Here is Mr. Longo describing the harrowing scene.
00:26:25.040We just learned that they have euthanized Peanut.
00:27:06.760After they interrogated my wife to check out her immigration status, then proceeded to ask me if I had cameras in my house, then proceeded to go through every cabinet, nook and cranny of my house for a squirrel and a raccoon.
00:28:22.540Our southern border is leading to a huge influx of unvetted fighting-age men from foreign countries who have no right to be here who are now filling up the Roosevelt Hotel in Midtown East in New York, just loitering about and smoking pot.
00:28:40.360I was walking from Grand Central to the Carnegie Club Cigar Lounge, and it's just like a wave of drugs as you walk by the Roosevelt for these poor beleaguered dreamers.
00:28:50.640New York is not enforcing its laws, doesn't have the resources to protect people on the street from violent criminals, but they're going to pull out Delta Force to go in there and take some guy's pet squirrel and his pet raccoon and then kill the squirrel.
00:29:06.220And they said they had to kill the squirrel to see if the squirrel had rabies.
00:29:08.680The guy had the squirrel for seven years.
00:29:11.040If the squirrel had rabies, we would know about it by now, right?
00:32:12.300There are going to be Democrats for Trump and there are going to be Republicans for Kamala,
00:32:15.840I guess, like Dick Cheney or Liz Cheney.
00:32:18.360However, if there is a discrepancy between party ID and who you vote for in this race,
00:32:22.140I think it's got to favor Trump, doesn't it?
00:32:23.920I think there are going to be way more Democrats for Trump than there are Republicans for Kamala.
00:32:30.140I think there are going to be a lot more Democrats following Bobby Kennedy and Elon Musk and Tulsi Gabbard.
00:32:36.960And there are going to be a lot of people in that disaffected middle who think the left has gone way, way too far and that Kamala is obviously unqualified to be president.
00:32:43.420There are going to be a lot of those voting for Trump who missed the good old days before the 22% inflation or 30% inflation in some places that we've had over the Biden-Harris administration.
00:32:53.640So those numbers out of Nevada make me feel really, really good.
00:32:58.200You know what else makes me feel good?
00:38:17.980And so prayer and fasting, I think a very good idea.
00:38:20.380Some people disagree with that, like Bill Gates.
00:38:22.140Bill Gates is calling for a new religion.
00:38:26.620The potential positive path is so good that it will force us to rethink how should we use our time.
00:38:34.580You know, you can almost call it a new religion or a new philosophy of, okay, how do we stay connected with each other, not addicted to these things that will make video games look like nothing in terms of the attractiveness of spending time on them.
00:38:53.300So it's fascinating that we will, the issues of, you know, disease and enough food of climate, if things go well, those will largely become solved problems.
00:39:06.820Okay, a new religion is what Bill Gates is calling for.
00:39:10.480Not beating the charges that this man wants to make himself a master of the universe, that this man and his pals in the liberal establishment want to make themselves into gods.
00:39:20.180Just a point, though, for Bill Gates, who has not thought very deeply about religion, it would seem.
00:40:36.920We're going to go in and we're going to take your pet squirrel.
00:40:38.280And we're not going to enforce any other laws.
00:40:40.800That we are going to make ourselves into gods.
00:40:44.160And not like the true God who is synonymous with logic and reason, but gods who are totally unbound by logic and reason, who are pure will, purely transcendent.
00:42:41.500That SNL is airing a sketch mocking the liberal insistence, the core of the Kamala 2024 campaign and the core of the Biden 2024 campaign before that.
00:42:53.440They're mocking the key message of that campaign just days before the election.
00:43:16.020It's absurd because you have now had a year of Democrats trying to kick Trump off the ballot in the name of democracy.
00:43:26.420You've had a year of Democrats trying to imprison their chief political rival in the name of democracy.
00:43:31.900You've had a year of Democrats justifying the assassination that did in fact come to pass in an attempt of President Trump, of their chief rival.
00:43:40.980By any even remotely reasonable measurement, Democrats pose the threat to democracy.
00:43:49.680And on top of all that, the Democrats don't even believe what they're saying.
00:43:54.120Most of them don't even remember that guy who Hillary ran with in 2016.
00:44:00.440So, you know, there have been a lot of hoaxes in the 2024 race, really over the past now almost 10 years since President Trump came down that golden escalator.
00:44:10.980We will get to the Democrats' last hoax.
00:44:15.080I say the, I don't know, maybe they'll fit five more in, but they only have one day left.
00:44:17.660So the last Trump hoax that they are launching before the election day actually comes to pass, because we're getting so close to the big moment,
00:44:29.480I'm very pleased that we are going to keep this show on YouTube, at least until Ben's show now, because The Daily Wire is going to bring you election coverage wall to wall until we figure out who our next president is.
00:48:02.480You know, when the guns are trained on her face.
00:48:05.760You know, they're all war hawks when they're sitting in Washington in a nice building saying, oh, gee, Will, let's send 10,000 troops right into the mouth of the enemy.
00:48:15.780But she's a stupid person, and I used to have meetings with a lot of people, and she always wanted to go to war with people.
00:48:51.240The irony is that this is the opposite of a threat because Trump is advocating the opposite policy of that which would imperil Liz Cheney's life.
00:49:03.560Trump is saying Liz Cheney wants to go to war.
00:49:09.920Then she would actually be at risk of death.
00:49:12.680But I don't want to send people to war, which means I don't want to send Liz Cheney to war or anyone else to war, which means I don't want to imperil Liz Cheney's life.
00:49:23.420It's exactly the opposite of a threat.
00:49:25.760But, of course, this is what the libs do.
00:49:35.000I don't think anyone is really convinced by this.
00:49:38.060After, I mean, goodness gracious, we don't have enough time, even in this extra block, to recount all the hoaxes.
00:49:43.920The very fine people hoax or the Russia hoax or then the Ukraine hoax or then the this hoax or the that hoax, the dossier, all the rest of it.
00:49:53.540Now we've got Trump wants to kill Liz Cheney.
00:50:20.980You know, Kamala seems to be consistently underperforming with black men compared to Biden in 2020.
00:50:26.220I was just – coincidentally, I was just speaking to a black politically engaged friend of mine.
00:50:31.800And he said – I said, yeah, it looks like Kamala's support has suppressed maybe 12 to 15 percent among black men over what she might have expected from Biden 2020.
00:50:52.140Kamala goes on The Breakfast Club, which is a show aimed primarily at a black audience, and insists that the brothers are still voting for Kamala.
00:51:00.100Now, we – VP Harris, this is Lauren.
00:51:04.840We talk a lot up here about the black men conversation and the fact that people, you know, they keep trying to push this whole black men are not supporting Kamala Harris.
00:51:13.600And my question to you is, you know, the fact that, you know, even if it's a lie, people are still saying it.
00:51:18.720What is your strong push to any black man right now that feels like you're not speaking directly to them and about the things that they should care about for their families and for themselves?
00:51:26.260Well, Lauren, I have to tell you back to what Charlemagne is shouting in the background.
00:53:05.280I'm getting all these conflicting reports.
00:53:06.680You've got this poll out of Iowa that says that Kamala's going to run away with a state that Trump won twice.
00:53:10.540And then you're getting the New York Times coming out and saying, actually, the polls are underestimating President Trump's support yet again, as they did in 2016.
00:53:21.160I think, first off, pollsters are terrified of being wrong again this election.
00:53:27.160And I would like to, as a private pollster, divide public and private polling.
00:53:31.720Because there's many of us who are hired to help guide strategy, like you're talking about, and to explain this is what's going on and why.
00:53:38.020And if you want to change it, here's what you need to do for messaging or targeting.
00:53:41.300Public polls just put stuff out, I guess, to get a press release out there for the most part.
00:53:45.220But I would say that there's been a lot of hurting, which means that these pollsters are trying to make their numbers look like somebody else's numbers.
00:53:53.300And there's a whole lot you can do on the back end of a poll to make it appear like you want it to appear, either because you want it to look like the other polls that have come out, or you just don't believe the results.
00:54:02.980And so, you're going to tweak something on the back end.
00:54:13.720This Iowa at Harris plus three is a significant outlier.
00:54:18.200But one of the things that we have to do, especially as we're going into the final 24 hours of the campaign here, is realize that there is something to be learned from every poll that comes out.
00:54:27.660We don't just want to say that's complete bunk.
00:54:29.880I mean, thinking about if you're getting feedback from somebody at work, and they come to you and they tell you something, and you don't really agree with the premise.
00:54:37.100They don't give you all the facts that you're going to agree with.
00:54:39.140But there's about 10% in there that they're actually correct on in giving you feedback.
00:54:42.940It's just the other 90% is kind of crap.
00:54:45.780And I think that's really what the Iowa poll is, is that most of it, he's going to win.
00:54:49.380He's going to win by probably five or more.
00:54:51.600I wouldn't be surprised if it's more like seven in Iowa.
00:54:54.480But we have to look at why did that poll come out that way.
00:54:57.560And it's because Donald Trump is significantly underperforming with seniors in that poll.
00:55:01.860And he's really underperforming with female voters in that poll.
00:55:05.500And when you look at the fact that elections are about persuasion to turn out, not persuasion anymore.
00:55:10.300And you look at the campaigns and where they're spending their time and what they're saying in their final closing remarks.
00:55:16.420You realize that Harris is talking to seniors and women, and Donald Trump is talking to men and voters of color.
00:55:22.900And they're both making their closing arguments in that they've got to get those people out.
00:55:28.640And I've really, I can't think of an election that was so incumbent on both sides actually having to really perform strong on election day.
00:55:35.920Usually it's more incumbent on Republicans to perform early on election day.
00:55:39.280But they banked a lot of early votes that they haven't in the past.
00:55:42.120But that means that there's still tons of people left to turn out in this final 24 hours.
00:55:47.480I read that a little over half of Americans have voted early, which is a shocking number, especially because Republicans are generally not inclined to vote early.
00:55:55.880But then I thought, OK, well, that means by my calculations, a little under half the country still is going to vote on election day.
00:56:23.860You know, how likely is it to deny him a second shot at the White House?
00:56:29.160Well, the reason that people in the past, at least, have put a lot of credence into the seltzer poll coming out of Iowa right before the election is because that state looks a lot like the key demographics that matter in places.
00:56:41.620Like Michigan and Wisconsin and, to an extent, Pennsylvania.
00:56:44.900And so it's almost a bellwether historically for what is going to happen in the rest of those states.
00:56:50.260And so we actually just also finished our own polls in those three states.
00:56:56.580And this whole election season has all been about Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania.
00:57:00.900And I think what's going to be fascinating is actually going to be Michigan and Wisconsin that are more likely to be the important states for the two campaigns as opposed to Pennsylvania.
00:57:09.480So, okay, take me through this because I agree.
00:57:12.720I think there's been an overemphasis on Pennsylvania here.
00:57:15.640And things have happened in Arizona and Nevada that are really interesting.
00:57:19.600Arizona looks like it's pretty strong for Trump.
00:57:22.480And even Nevada seems to be following that.
00:58:03.680What's really interesting is when you look at Nevada and you look at both candidates' paths to 270 on the Electoral College, Nevada almost doesn't matter.
00:58:13.300And it's only in about 5% of scenarios where whoever wins Nevada actually makes a difference in somebody's path to 270.
00:58:21.700That's because it only has six Electoral College votes, two U.S. senators and four congressmen and women.
00:58:27.300And even though Trump has done better there, I just have PTSD about the Culinary Union and their ability to turn people out on Election Day.
00:58:38.160I've seen it over and over again in that state, the Reid machine, the Harry Reid machine that people talk about.
00:58:44.040And so maybe it's just the PTSD that I'm kind of canceling out some of what I'm seeing on the positive side for Republicans on early vote.
00:58:51.960But, yeah, Arizona is definitely coming back around.
00:58:57.660Georgia has been much stronger this time for Trump.
00:59:00.280And these are usually referred to as the Sun Belt states, I guess, because they're a little bit less depressing in the winter than the Rust Belt states.
00:59:06.920And North Carolina has been, you know, Trump had been performing incredibly well there.
00:59:10.860And it's actually tightened up according to a number of polls in the last few days.
00:59:14.460And so we may be sitting here tomorrow night having conversations about the election and watching North Carolina come in and, again, go back to Wisconsin and Michigan and how important those two states might be.
00:59:26.280And that it could be a unique path to 270 for Donald Trump that nobody's really been talking about.
00:59:31.940But I would say he has more paths to 270 than than she does.
00:59:36.660And one thing about Wisconsin that's really important to keep in mind is that out of all the states historically, whether you look at midterms or general presidential elections, it has the highest polling error of any state in the country, sometimes underestimating Republican votes by 6%.
00:59:53.840I don't think it's going to be that high this time.
00:59:55.860But if we are talking about states that are nearly tied, you know, within one percent, two percent, a polling error in Wisconsin is more likely to happen than a large polling error in Pennsylvania or Michigan.
01:00:09.820And so I think you're going to see Donald Trump win Wisconsin.
01:00:13.840And what's really interesting is Eric Covde, the Republican Senate candidate there.
01:00:17.740I wouldn't be shocked if he actually outperformed Donald Trump on final margin.
01:00:21.360Wow. Well, OK, bringing us to the Senate, then it's obviously not just the presidential is up.
01:00:40.920And what what are the seats going to be that cost us the House?
01:00:44.900If you look at the Senate map, this is one of the best Republican Senate maps that we've had in a couple elections.
01:00:50.560It is much better than twenty six and twenty eight.
01:00:53.400And so it's the cycle that Republicans really need to overperform in the Senate, because especially if Donald Trump is in the White House in twenty twenty six, that's going to be a tough election year for Republicans in a map that is not nearly as favorable on the Senate side.
01:01:07.180So you automatically get to 50 with Joe Manchin's retirement because that state he was the only person who could have held.
01:01:13.420I think he would have lost this year if he ran, which is why he didn't run again.
01:01:17.120So that gets you to 50. Tim Sheehy, that's the second most Republican state in the nation for Donald Trump that has a Democrat senator sitting in it.
01:01:27.040So testers likely to fall, Tim Sheehy likely to win there.
01:01:29.840That takes you to 51. Come over to Ohio.
01:01:33.720We need a really strong Donald Trump performance in Ohio.
01:01:36.580He doesn't really need the state because he's going to win it regardless.
01:01:38.980We just need a really strong Trump margin there for Bernie Moreno to come across the finish line with him, because Sherrod Brown, the Democrat senator there for past couple terms, is a bit of an anomaly, a populist in and of his own right.
01:01:52.200And so that that gets you to 52. And now you're flirting with 53.
01:01:55.04053. And if you look at Wisconsin, I think that's the the the first best shot of the next three seats for Republicans, then likely Michigan and then likely Pennsylvania.
01:02:07.160But they're also close. It's really what we've been tracking is how far has the Republican been in those seats from Trump's margin?
01:02:14.300And, you know, in Ohio and Montana, you benefit from the fact that Trump could win definitely by double digits in Montana and potentially by double digits in Ohio.
01:02:24.420And then on the House side, this is going to be a game of both sides losing seats because the current Republican majority runs through California and New York, which is absolutely fascinating.
01:02:35.440If you told me that Brent 10 years ago, that that is how you build the next Republican majority, I would have laughed at you.
01:02:41.080But we're here. And I read an article this morning that Katie Porter, who ran for U.S. Senate in California and lost that primary, her seat down in Orange County area, San Diego area.
01:02:56.300She's actually worried about it. And so you see opportunities to actually maybe pick up a seat in a California in a place like that.
01:03:03.520The the New York Republican congressmen have been doing a phenomenal job.
01:03:06.980I think the Mark Mark Molinaro seat in New York 19 is going to end up being one of the most expensive in the nation.
01:03:12.900Then you have places like Michigan seven, which is Alyssa Slotkin, who's running for the U.S. Senate.
01:03:17.280She's Democrat congressman currently. That seat's likely to flip to Republican hands.
01:03:21.780But then you also have some Republican seats that we're we're in tough territory with.
01:03:26.540And so I think it's hard to say the Republicans will definitely have the majority.
01:03:30.460The Democrats will definitely have the majority.
01:03:32.100I think the the safest bet in the House is to say that somebody is going to have a really slim majority, potentially even slumber than the current majority.
01:03:38.740Wow. You know, you mentioned New York 19.
01:03:40.960That was the first race I ever worked on.
01:03:43.100Actually, it was the first campaign I ever worked.
01:03:44.740And back then this would have been 2010.
01:03:47.880Back then, I think it was the most expensive House race in the country.
01:03:52.340You get some real swing districts here in the Hudson Valley or or, you know, I was just talking to Keith Schiller, who's Trump's top security guy.
01:04:01.460He's also from the Hudson Valley is a lot of Republicans in those parts of California in New York.
01:04:07.020They could be really, really consequential.
01:04:31.580So I really like talking on the poll side of things because the data are sometimes wrong, but they don't lie, you know, and they actually do kind of guide you a little bit.
01:04:40.760To the point that Brent was making earlier, you know, you can always learn something from a poll, even if the poll is totally bonkers in its premises or the way it's weighted afterward.
01:04:49.080But then, you know, there's another side of things, which is the consultant side.
01:04:53.680So we've got a great Republican consultant coming on momentarily.
01:05:09.540This is not – if you're out there in YouTube land, I appreciate you being here.
01:05:13.120It's good to subscribe to the Michael Knowles YouTube channel.
01:05:15.320But if you want to get your questions answered, you want me to send to you my mellifluous tones in response, you've got to be a Daily Wire Plus member.
01:05:25.460And then you can use code Knowles, and then I can beat out Shapiro on who's signing up the most people.
01:06:41.920And last little salvo, right before the election, here is a 10-minute reminder of how disastrous the Biden-Harris administration has been.
01:06:49.640That's on my YouTube channel right now.
01:06:53.360So I would say send that around a little bit, you know, if you, not just so that people can see my swarthy features, but just to remind people, this administration has been so disastrous.
01:08:43.200You know, it's very nerve wracking, obviously, going to election day.
01:08:47.900There are some, like polls are good, but when every poll says it's a tie, it's really, I mean, they're kind of worthless.
01:08:53.800So you have to sit there and look deeper in.
01:08:56.560So I look at like the New York Times-Siena poll yesterday that came out, the last Siena poll that came out.
01:09:02.460I noticed something, a really big, important misnomer on their part that I think is very important.
01:09:09.780Their sample sizes for black voters are way higher than the turnout so far.
01:09:16.620So like in the state of Georgia, which is one of the highest black voter states of black population in the entire country, they have estimated 29% of the electorate will be black voters.
01:09:26.580That is the electorate that came out for Obama.
01:09:51.140The black vote is going to be very instrumental because it's down basically everywhere.
01:09:55.860And I mean, it's universal across the country.
01:09:58.760In Ohio, for example, the three counties that have the blackest population, also the three most Democratic counties, they made up 28.5% of all early votes in the state back in 2020.
01:10:15.780In Pennsylvania, Philadelphia is at 43%.
01:10:19.500Philadelphia County, not just the city, but the county is at 43% of where it was in 2020.
01:10:25.740These are very difficult numbers to get up and to retrieve on Election Day if the population doesn't seem excited.
01:10:34.120North Carolina is also down substantially with their black vote.
01:10:36.540So that's an important thing I will be looking for in Election Day is does the black vote come out?
01:10:40.680Because 9 in 10 black voters do vote Democrat.
01:10:43.500Maybe it'll be 8.5 this time, but it's going to be very, very, very high.
01:10:48.040For every one black voter that doesn't come out, Democrats will need to find, because the propensity of Democrat to Republican is different, they will need, or every 10 black voters, they will need about 60 or 30 college-educated whites to match the 10 black voters who are not coming out.
01:11:09.340That is how important it is to their coalition to sit there and have these voters come out.
01:11:14.140So if they don't, I don't know if there's enough college-educated white suburbanites to make up for the loss of these voters.
01:11:21.380The second thing is the rules have been blowing up in the Election Day early votes.
01:11:29.560In massive numbers, in Western Pennsylvania, Republicans are over 100% of where they were in 2020, in basically every county outside the cities of Erie and Pittsburgh, and where College Station is over in the central of Pennsylvania.
01:11:46.600But almost all Western, almost all Northern Pennsylvania, they're meeting their numbers and exceeding them.
01:11:52.060Same thing is true in lots of parts of Michigan, in most of Georgia.
01:11:56.620That doesn't mean that there is not more room to grow.
01:11:58.940I'm going to be looking at Marjorie Taylor Greene's congressional district.
01:12:01.720It has one of the worst voting participations in all of Georgia, and it is the whitest and most Republican.
01:12:09.840We'll be looking at Western North Carolina.
01:12:11.860Did the hurricane stop them from showing up?
01:12:14.020And then I'll be looking at to see if more Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania will have mostly Election Day voters just because they don't have typical early day votes.
01:12:22.980And then the last thing I think that is worth sitting there and noticing to sit there and see is how are seniors voting?
01:12:30.100I have talked about this for six to seven months.
01:12:32.900Senior voting has been in polls in 2016, in 2020, and in 2024.
01:12:40.900Most polls have Trump losing seniors to Hillary, then Biden, then Kamala.
01:12:48.760He has never lost those groups to either any of those candidates.
01:12:52.340I mean, not Kamala yet, but it is more than likely.
01:12:54.500If there is a major polling error in the states, right, it will be because they oversampled liberal seniors.
01:13:04.560The Ann Selser poll that everyone shocked in Iowa found the group that had moved the most left from 2020 to 2024, according to the Selser poll, were voters over 65, which in Iowa are basically 100% white, overwhelmingly evangelical, and extremely Republican.
01:13:21.520Not only did they have senior women being the most Democratic group in the entire state, Trump was even with senior men, senior men who moved 30 points.
01:13:36.240I think that when people are polling, and polling is a very expensive thing to do, liberal seniors who watch Rachel Maddow day in and day out, they cannot wait to tell you how much they hate Donald Trump.
01:13:47.400A lot of conservative seniors or just middle-of-the-road seniors who like Trump don't want to talk to a pollster, and I think that that is a big thing you may see where you see the polling error that flips states to Trump.
01:13:59.880If the polling error doesn't exist, then probably Kamala would win, but if it does exist, as I think it does, the states will flip to Trump.
01:14:05.100So in terms of how to even read these polls or how to wait these polls, is there a structural issue right now?
01:14:12.800Namely, that the Democrats changed all the rules in 2020, and so now you've got way more mail-in balloting.
01:14:19.220You've got certainly way more early voting.
01:14:21.720You've got more opportunities for ballot harvesting, depending on your state.
01:14:25.420So is it possible that we just don't really know how to read or even conduct these polls anymore because previously you could say, all right, past is likely to be precedent.
01:14:36.300We've conducted elections more or less the same way for most of the 20th century, and so you can kind of rely on past performance.
01:14:45.060Whereas now, as you say, who knows, Election Day voters are usually whiter and more Republican, but I don't know, maybe, you know, usually black voters are more likely to vote for the Democrats, but they seem to not have quite as much enthusiasm.
01:15:15.580I think when Trump's name is mentioned, there's a certain population that need to tell somebody.
01:15:21.420I mean, at this point, all white liberal seniors are calling pollsters saying, please hear my opinion.
01:15:25.580I have to tell you how much I hate this man.
01:15:28.680So what a lot of pollsters, what like Nate Cohen of the New York Times, what they're sitting there and they're predicting, not predicting, but what they are hypothesizing is that if you look at the state like New York State, right?
01:15:40.760New York State, you know, well, you're from here, I'm from here.
01:15:44.340The major city is New York, very diverse, very, very blue.
01:15:47.740Long Island's redder and ethnic whites.
01:15:51.100Upstate is more waspy or more like old American white and with some blue spots in the middle.
01:15:58.160Dave Cohen is sitting there and saying, if the realignment that you're describing is real, what's going to happen is upstate will get bluer.
01:16:06.100Long Island may get a little redder because it's more ethnically white, but New York City will get much, much more redder.
01:16:12.520The problem is, is like an AOC style district will go from like D plus 40 to D plus 25.
01:16:23.920So the state moves from a D plus 23 state to a D plus 16 state, which is a tremendous, tremendous movement to the right.
01:16:31.600But it still results in Republican losses just of how the votes are distributed.
01:16:36.440Yeah, that's what Cohen is saying and saying Texas will get redder.
01:16:40.000New Mexico will get redder, Nevada, Arizona, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina.
01:16:43.980But we'll still lose the Rust Belt because college educated whites are just too liberal now and will overload it.
01:16:50.760I don't necessarily believe that because it's all based on, as you said, how do we know who's going to be voting?
01:16:55.680They base these on voter registration structures and likely voting, voting, voting, past voting, voting structures.
01:17:02.820If a ton of non-college educated whites show up that didn't show up before, it will change it.
01:17:07.860I want to put up two really important facts for you really quickly.
01:17:10.820One, last year, the governor, Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, made automatic voter registration for the state.
01:17:17.040If you got a license, you were automatically registered to vote.
01:17:19.900That resulted in a ton of people who had never been engaged before all of a sudden being registered to vote.
01:17:24.680The second thing is, in 2016, there were 2.66 million non-college educated white Americans in Pennsylvania who were not registered to vote.
01:17:36.320There is a tremendous pool of untapped voters that we have never seen before.
01:17:40.880Who knows if they're going to go vote?
01:17:42.160And the last thing I think is really, really important.
01:17:44.180Right now in Pennsylvania, these western counties are huge turnout for the Republicans.
01:17:48.820But you know what the highest turnout percentage-wise compared to 2020 for the Democrats are?
01:17:58.240These are rural, rural counties that Trump is going to get between 70% and 80% in.
01:18:03.400The only way Trump gets 70% to 80% is a lot of Democrats in those counties vote Republican.
01:18:09.740It could be, and we don't know this until after Election Day, but it could be that we're seeing conservative Democrats who make the state much more narrow because they have a huge voter advantage, registration voter advantage lead,
01:18:20.040are also showing up and excited for Trump.
01:18:22.720I don't know that, but it would explain why super, super, super red counties in the state have the highest percentage of Democrat vote compared to 2020, is that the conservative Democrats are also voting for Donald Trump right now.
01:18:48.940It might be just Liz Cheney's clones all over Nevada, or it could be Democrats for Trump.
01:18:53.340But I thought, in this election, if there is going to be a divergence between voter ID and the candidate you vote for, it's obviously going to cut in Trump's favor, right?
01:19:03.820There are obviously more Democrats for Trump than Republicans for Kamala.
01:19:09.900I mean, in a state like Pennsylvania, right?
01:19:12.720So the collar counties outside Philadelphia, I would guess there would be a higher percentage of Republicans voting for Kamala.
01:19:19.440In Montgomery, in Delaware, those kinds of counties.
01:19:21.620But they are having very low, comparative to 2020, very low turnout.
01:19:27.020It is white working class counties that are having the 130, 140% turnover from 2020, where they are voting in huge numbers.
01:19:36.420If the realignment everyone is talking about, Nate Cohen saying is real is real, then in heavily minority states like Nevada, you're going to see a lot of asymptomatic switch over.
01:19:47.640But I think what's more important right now in the run-up to the election is that minorities in Nevada, if you look at where the precincts are, they're not choosing necessarily between Kamala and Trump.
01:19:58.680They're choosing between voting and the couch.
01:20:49.220Now, before I let you go, Ryan, I have to know, we've talked a lot about the presidential.
01:20:52.880Right now, we're just speaking to Brent Buchanan.
01:20:57.600It looks like Republicans would have to clutch defeat from the jaws of victory in a way that is shocking, even for them, in order not to take the Senate.
01:21:08.540And then the House seems a little bit up for grabs.
01:21:22.880The problem for Republicans is that we got redistricted pretty heavily in the 2020 redistricting.
01:21:27.880So, like, a lot of seats in New Jersey and Illinois are just not up for grabs anymore.
01:21:32.000The other thing I would sit there and say about the Senate seat, I've heard that, you know, Republican numbers are in the mid-single digits in favor of Bernie Marino in Ohio.
01:21:41.940In Montana, they're doing very, very well.
01:21:44.420It's basically, in West Virginia, obviously, they're basically all but flipped.
01:21:47.440The governor and his dog will be the next two senators from West Virginia.
01:21:50.760The question is, can any of the Midwestern or Nevada Senate races flip?
01:21:57.440In Nevada, there is a 42,000 Republican advantage over Democrats in the state.
01:22:04.060This is the first time since 2014 when the very popular Republican Governor Brian Sandoval was running for re-election and won every county in the state.
01:22:12.220I'm not saying that's going to happen this time, but that's the last time it happened where Republicans were outvoting Democrats in the run-up.
01:22:18.600And part of it is the enthusiasm thing.
01:22:20.600So, if there is a shock thing, it could come from Nevada, a shock result.
01:22:25.620But certainly, Pennsylvania and Michigan and Wisconsin could all be within a point, and we'll have to wait and see.
01:22:44.620But it's very, very tight, and a lot of these Democrats like Casey and Tammy Baldwin have never faced a competitive election before.
01:22:52.880You know, I think, Ryan, you mentioned that Nevada could be a big surprise.
01:22:57.220That's Sam Brown there running for Senate.
01:22:59.160I think many people are saying the reason is because he gave his most prominent and first proper long sit-down interview on the Michael Knowles show.
01:23:07.440So, I think many people, they're talking—I don't know how many, but there is some number of people who are crediting that with his—
01:24:19.140If Trump wins, he carries the House and Senate just like 16, but they will spend the first six months fighting him like they did with Obamacare.
01:24:27.040But will they spend the first six months fighting him like they did with Obamacare?
01:24:30.320Look, if Trump wins, even if Trump doesn't win, let's just say Trump's going to win.
01:24:35.640The Republicans have to take the Senate, I think.
01:24:56.060Even if Trump wins by a lot, even if the Republicans have 53, 54, whatever, in the U.S. Senate, I still don't know that we get the House.
01:25:03.860Old people at my parish, Catholics at least, are voting Harris Waltz, says, Catholics at that are voting Harris Waltz, says Luke Thomas 12.
01:25:14.320That is really bad for them, especially, because it would seem inadmissible, impermissible for Catholics to vote for, for Christians of any flavor, to vote for Harris and Waltz.
01:25:30.000I mean, the woman wants to kill babies up until the moment of birth or afterward.