The Michael Knowles Show - Ep. 1609 - Why I Voted For Trump

00:00:00.000 It's back. One last chance. Get 47% off your new Daily Wire Plus annual membership with code FIGHT. 47% off as we rally behind the future 47th president, Donald Trump. Go to dailywire.com today. Join us as we fight the left and build America's future. Take a look.

00:00:23.740 November 5th. The night America's fate is decided. As the final votes are counted and a nation waits for the outcome, join us to break down the live election results as only Ben Shapiro, Matt Walsh, Michael Knowles, Andrew Klavan, and Jeremy Boren can.

00:00:40.760 With special guests appearing live in studio, Dr. Jordan B. Peterson, Dennis Prager, and Spencer Clayton. Daily Wire, Election Night 2024.

00:00:50.320 Get real-time results and exclusive insights from the most trusted names in media.

00:00:56.360 This is more than an election. It's history in the making.

00:01:00.560 Join the Daily Wire as each vote is counted, each state called, and each race decided.

00:01:05.320 Daily Wire, Election Night 2024. Tomorrow at 6 Eastern, 5 Central.

00:01:09.900 In just over 20 hours, polls will open for Election Day.

00:01:14.140 Because Democrats changed the election rules four years ago, more than half the country has already voted.

00:01:19.500 That means just under half the country will be voting tomorrow.

00:01:23.920 So one last time, I would like to remind everyone why I voted for Donald Trump.

00:01:29.280 Donald Trump was the best president of my lifetime.

00:01:33.160 He created 7 million new jobs, more than three times what analysts had predicted.

00:01:38.480 Real wages rose more than they had in 40 years.

00:01:42.120 Unemployment reached the lowest level it had in 50 years.

00:01:45.300 Unemployment for black people, Hispanics, Asians, veterans, the disabled, and Americans without a high school diploma all hit record lows.

00:01:54.900 The median household income reached record highs.

00:01:58.600 Poverty fell to record lows.

00:02:00.740 The bottom 50% of U.S. households enjoyed a 40% increase in net worth.

00:02:04.980 The stock market hit record highs.

00:02:07.060 Trump's tax relief cut the tax bill of a typical American family of four earning $75,000 per year in half.

00:02:14.400 For every new government regulation instituted under Trump, eight old regulations were cut.

00:02:20.240 For the first time in almost 70 years, America became a net exporter of energy and the top producer of oil and natural gas in the world.

00:02:28.280 On top of that, renewable energy and production and consumption also reached record highs.

00:02:35.420 Families saw their child tax credit doubled and eligibility for it expanded.

00:02:40.160 Trump improved health care, lowering the cost of drugs for the first time in over half a century,

00:02:44.700 while simultaneously eliminating Obamacare's unconstitutional individual mandate.

00:02:50.520 Despite overwhelming opposition from Democrats, Trump built over 400 miles of the border wall,

00:02:57.120 causing illegal crossings to drop a whopping 87% where the wall had been constructed.

00:03:04.560 During Trump's term, illegal immigration hit relative historic lows.

00:03:08.820 For the first time in many years, NATO allies began to pay their funding obligations to the tune of $400 billion.

00:03:14.180 He withdrew from disastrous foreign policy agreements such as the Iran nuclear deal.

00:03:19.900 And through deals such as the Abraham Accords, he brought peace to the Middle East.

00:03:25.160 Unlike his predecessors or successor, no new wars started during his administration.

00:03:32.040 Of the past four presidents, Trump is the only one on whose watch Vladimir Putin did not launch any new invasions.

00:03:38.280 That peace came by way of strength.

00:03:40.080 Trump rebuilt the military to the tune of $2.2 trillion, established a new branch of the military to maintain American dominance in space,

00:03:48.140 and obliterated long-standing enemies such as ISIS.

00:03:51.820 Violent crime dropped consistently throughout his presidency.

00:03:55.620 Taxpayers were no longer forced to fund abortions abroad.

00:03:58.900 Trump became the first sitting president to attend the March for Life,

00:04:01.880 and Trump-appointed judges delivered the greatest win for the defense of innocent life in American history.

00:04:06.760 By the end of Trump's term, America was safer, richer, and stronger than it was before he took office,

00:04:15.020 and then it became after he left.

00:04:17.440 It was great.

00:04:19.180 I'm Michael Knowles.

00:04:20.140 This is The Michael Knowles Show.

00:04:20.960 Welcome back to the show.

00:04:41.260 I know what you're all thinking about.

00:04:43.900 Peanut the squirrel.

00:04:45.080 And we will get to peanut the squirrel.

00:04:46.500 We will also get to an exclusive interview with President Trump's head of security,

00:04:51.700 a man who knows him as well or better as just about anyone.

00:04:54.520 We'll get to that in one moment.

00:04:55.460 First, though, folks, I've got to tell you about Good Ranchers.

00:04:57.440 You've got to go to goodranchers.com and use code KNOWS.

00:05:02.040 Thanksgiving is one of my favorite holidays.

00:05:04.980 I do not love fighting through crowded grocery stores filled with mystery meat from who knows where,

00:05:10.160 processed with all sorts of chemicals.

00:05:11.840 That's why I trust Good Ranchers.

00:05:13.160 You should, too.

00:05:13.660 Good Ranchers delivers 100% American meat right to your door.

00:05:17.500 No antibiotics, no hormones, definitely no seed oils,

00:05:20.660 just pure steakhouse-quality cuts from America's farmers who share our values.

00:05:25.980 Every piece is perfectly trimmed and individually vacuum-sealed.

00:05:30.460 Last week, I had a lovely, delicious bone-in ribeye from Good Ranchers,

00:05:34.080 and then after that, sweet little Elisa made a lovely little stir-fry with the sirloin.

00:05:38.320 It's everything that they make is the absolute best.

00:05:41.180 Subscribe to any Good Ranchers box right now using code KNOWS.

00:05:44.120 You will get a free Thanksgiving ham with your first delivery.

00:05:47.840 We're talking about a 10-pound spiral cut ham.

00:05:49.420 That's $110 value, absolutely free, plus free express shipping.

00:05:52.860 Go to goodranchers.com.

00:05:55.040 Use code KNOWS right now to claim your free, delicious Thanksgiving ham.

00:05:59.060 Do not wait.

00:06:00.140 Just like the supply of conservative voters in California, these hams won't last forever. 1.00

00:06:03.760 Goodranchers.com, American meat delivered.

00:06:08.660 I am so pleased to be joined by Keith Schiller.

00:06:13.960 Keith Schiller has served his country in a number of capacities, in the U.S. Navy, in law enforcement,

00:06:19.700 and then also as the head of President Trump's security for decades at this point.

00:06:24.880 I believe Keith met President Trump a quarter century ago and then served as his head of security,

00:06:31.120 going up all the way to the director of Oval Office Operations.

00:06:35.780 So, Keith, first of all, thank you so much for coming on the show.

00:06:40.360 Thank you, Michael.

00:06:41.100 It's an honor to be on the show.

00:06:42.840 It's actually a pleasure, and I appreciate you taking the time to speak with me.

00:06:47.980 Thank you.

00:06:48.060 Well, the honor and the pleasure is all mine.

00:06:50.740 Keith, I, like you, I'm a New Yorker.

00:06:53.440 I'm actually from the same area that you're from, the Hudson Valley.

00:06:56.680 And so I think for people who are not from New York, you know, they'd heard of President

00:07:01.640 Trump for many decades.

00:07:03.140 I have been aware of this man literally my entire life.

00:07:06.920 This guy has been a huge fixture for New Yorkers long before I voted for him in 2016.

00:07:12.480 However, a lot of people know the professional record, you know, the business successes and

00:07:17.080 obviously the political successes.

00:07:18.680 I just went through them in the monologue.

00:07:20.900 Not a lot of people know the man personally.

00:07:22.860 You know him as well or better than just about anyone.

00:07:26.000 And what the media have been saying for a decade now, previously they said that Trump was great

00:07:30.840 and they loved him, but for about a decade now they've said he's awful and he's a man of terrible

00:07:34.000 character and everyone hates him and he's a terrible person to be around.

00:07:37.840 Right.

00:07:38.040 You have the personal insight.

00:07:40.040 Right.

00:07:40.500 Tell us about the man personally.

00:07:42.900 Yeah.

00:07:43.100 You know, Mike, I just I think the media has done a great job at knocking, building him

00:07:49.920 up and knocking him down.

00:07:52.020 The truth is in the employees and the people that he touches on a daily basis that he reaches

00:07:57.940 out.

00:07:58.500 He he has rapport with long term people that Bennett, his employee.

00:08:03.940 That's the first thing I would like to say is if he was such a bad person, he couldn't keep

00:08:10.360 people around him.

00:08:11.720 There's people and I'm sure you've been to places where he's been at and you've met many

00:08:16.220 people.

00:08:17.280 They love him.

00:08:18.920 He's a guy, a man of the people.

00:08:21.400 He has employs people from all races, all creeds, all genders, obviously.

00:08:28.780 And they are people that would go to war for this guy.

00:08:32.820 Anyway, I've seen it out on the campaign trail year after year where the people he connects.

00:08:39.720 He knows how to connect with people.

00:08:42.480 We used to get off the plane and ride to the venues.

00:08:46.320 And for miles upon miles, the people would line up along the road with the American flags

00:08:51.260 cheering for him.

00:08:52.720 He knows how to connect with these people.

00:08:54.820 And that's been something that I think most candidates don't have.

00:09:00.700 He has a place in Scotland, England.

00:09:03.140 I can tell you a brief story that one of his managers who, after about two months, came

00:09:09.360 up to me and said, you know, Keith, we used to be owned by another company.

00:09:14.600 And I never met the former owners.

00:09:17.240 He said, for years, this company owned this establishment.

00:09:21.500 He says, but here we are two months in, I've met Ivanka, I've met Don, I've met Mr. Trump.

00:09:27.960 They know us by name.

00:09:30.100 They ask about our family.

00:09:32.240 He knows how to connect and it's genuine.

00:09:35.720 And that's the way I think why the people that he interacts with on the campaign trail

00:09:40.080 have that same feeling.

00:09:42.980 Yes, he's a wealthy man, but he's a man of the people.

00:09:45.720 I don't care if it's his elevator operator, a driver, an attorney, all walks of life, firemen,

00:09:53.860 law enforcement, military, which he loves.

00:09:56.300 He's able to make that connection, which I think most candidates are not able to do.

00:10:01.740 And he's done that because he's employed thousands upon thousands of people over the years.

00:10:07.580 And he's been able to get them behind him, make them feel this connection that is so unique to him.

00:10:16.160 He's a very, very, as I don't have to tell you, a very, very unique gentleman, right?

00:10:20.540 There's only one Donald J. Trump.

00:10:22.540 He's a warrior.

00:10:23.780 He's a fighter.

00:10:24.820 He's a leader.

00:10:26.180 He's a man that creates jobs.

00:10:27.880 And he's just very special.

00:10:31.800 And getting in regards to the family, I have nothing but good things to say about the family.

00:10:37.280 All great children.

00:10:38.880 As you can expect, they're all expected to do well.

00:10:41.680 They're very highly educated.

00:10:43.580 Manners.

00:10:44.260 Look at Baron.

00:10:45.060 Beautiful young man.

00:10:47.200 Ivanka, Don, and Eric.

00:10:49.400 Everybody around him loves this man, including obviously his family.

00:10:54.400 But he's just able to make that connection with people that most candidates will never be able to do.

00:11:01.120 And I don't know if it's because of his long history of building and making jobs, but he's out there every single day talking to the people, getting to know their families.

00:11:12.660 So it's a special person that can do that.

00:11:15.400 And, of course, he's a patriot.

00:11:17.880 That's first and foremost.

00:11:19.520 Everything that he does is for this country, for the betterment of this country.

00:11:25.020 And, unfortunately, in Washington, D.C., that's not a popular person.

00:11:29.320 Of course.

00:11:30.540 Yeah.

00:11:31.260 So go ahead.

00:11:32.860 I'm sorry.

00:11:33.340 No, no.

00:11:33.940 I think everything you're saying right now is something that Americans have picked up on over the years.

00:11:41.380 And just they've received this barrage from the establishment media that tells them not to believe their lying eyes.

00:11:47.780 When you say Trump is an original, he is.

00:11:50.440 He's a complete American original.

00:11:51.900 I know some people in the political establishment had called for Trumpism without Trump.

00:11:58.080 I thought, are you kidding?

00:11:59.060 What does that even mean?

00:12:00.380 You know, there's no Trumpism without Trump.

00:12:03.860 You know, this guy is a singular individual.

00:12:06.900 And then you talk about that connection with voters.

00:12:08.680 To me, the moment I really saw it on the national stage was that moment he was boarding the helicopter or the airplane.

00:12:17.060 And the wind blew a Marine's hat down.

00:12:19.900 And he just instinctively reached down, picked it up, put it on the Marine's head, got on the plane.

00:12:24.200 Right.

00:12:24.420 I thought, that's not the sort of thing you can calculate.

00:12:28.300 That's got to be just in your character.

00:12:30.720 That has to just be in your behavior for however many decades.

00:12:34.600 On the point about the family, Keith, I'd love to get your insight.

00:12:38.680 Because it seemed to me when the media were saying this is a man of bad character and, you know, people around him don't like him or whatever.

00:12:44.420 I thought, look, I've met a lot of politicians.

00:12:47.920 Most politicians have terrible family lives.

00:12:51.240 And maybe it's just something about the job or it's an occupational hazard or I don't know what.

00:12:55.560 But having spent a little bit of time with President Trump's kids at different times over the years, I've always been impressed by the kids, by how well they have done, how relatively normal they are given their eccentric upbringing, and by how much love and respect they obviously have for their father.

00:13:15.260 I don't know that I've ever seen a comparison among other politicians.

00:13:18.180 So tell me a little bit about that family dynamic.

00:13:20.340 Well, you know, obviously they learned that hard work ethic at a very young age.

00:13:27.580 I know Eric Don and Ivanka, as soon as they were able to, while they were in university and maybe even earlier, were out working at some of his properties.

00:13:38.540 They always had jobs.

00:13:40.640 They always had to do something to earn their keep.

00:13:43.900 And the father and their mom instilled the hard work ethic.

00:13:49.340 So they're not kids that were born and just handed everything.

00:13:52.720 They started at a very early age where they understood the value of a dollar.

00:13:57.880 And they understood quality building and construction.

00:14:00.700 They learned all that from their father, especially Ivanka.

00:14:04.100 She's a great product of a great father and mother.

00:14:10.240 You know, very good person.

00:14:11.560 They're all great kids.

00:14:13.760 I mean, I've interacted with Byron since he was four, three, four years old.

00:14:18.320 I knew Don and Ivanka when they were going to college and being involved with activities.

00:14:23.840 Tiffany, I had a lot of interactions.

00:14:26.940 All very, very level-headed, well-rounded children.

00:14:31.760 Extremely respectful.

00:14:32.920 And as you said earlier, they could be kids of a very wealthy parent and be very dismissive of your average voter and employee.

00:14:43.860 They are exactly the opposite.

00:14:45.780 I'll tell you a very quick story about Ivanka and the type of character that she is.

00:14:50.500 She's a great person.

00:14:52.020 Many years ago, she flew into New York City and we had one of my drivers had to go pick her up at the airport.

00:15:00.680 It just so happened it was Super Bowl Sunday.

00:15:03.960 So in the middle of the game, the driver leaves his home, his family, to go pick up Ivanka.

00:15:10.120 That was his job.

00:15:10.980 And he did it gladly.

00:15:12.860 You know, he has, as most employees, they love the family.

00:15:16.120 So they did it gladly.

00:15:18.380 So in the car, Ivanka asked him, what's going on?

00:15:22.700 I guess the topic came up that it was Super Bowl and he left in the middle of the game.

00:15:27.380 So because she didn't want him to miss the game and leave his family, she said, well, let's go to your house.

00:15:35.040 And we'll go sit with your family and we'll watch the game together.

00:15:38.840 Because she knew if she had to drive her into Manhattan, it would have been another hour, hour and a half.

00:15:43.540 Ivanka was kind enough to think of this guy.

00:15:48.160 He left his family.

00:15:49.580 She goes there, sits in this house in Queens, very large family.

00:15:53.920 They were in awe that she's sitting there watching the game with them.

00:15:57.260 But that's the type of person that she is. 0.83

00:16:00.460 And she's like that because her father's like that, considerate of others.

00:16:05.200 And of course, the driver and its family were so pleased and happy that Ivanka would do something like that.

00:16:12.320 But that's the type of people they are.

00:16:14.360 And they're all like that.

00:16:15.420 And they're not like that by mistake.

00:16:18.220 It's like it's because of the parenting and the people that their two parents were.

00:16:23.200 They're very, very strict on the kids, but great people of integrity.

00:16:27.560 You know, this confirms something I've suspected about President Trump and the Trump family, which I really like.

00:16:33.060 And it drives the D.C. establishment crazy because they want President Trump to have a five-bullet-point manifesto on the back of a napkin and be some political dweeb who has some hyper-focused ideology or whatever.

00:16:46.200 And I think I actually don't want that in my politicians.

00:16:48.600 What I want in my politicians is a good gut, and I want courage, which is the prerequisite for all of the other virtues.

00:16:54.860 I want someone who is going to make the right decision in the moment.

00:16:59.280 And I think time again, you use the example of the Marine with the hat, or obviously you use the example of Butler, Pennsylvania.

00:17:05.840 This is a man who demonstrates courage literally under fire.

00:17:08.720 You know, this is someone that you want to be able to trust to make those decisions, to make the – even, you know, Ivanka in the car driving on the Super Bowl to just know, hey, you know, a really generous and gracious thing to do would be to go over and take an hour or two out of my day so this guy can be with his family.

00:17:24.920 That's what I want.

00:17:25.820 I want someone who instinctively is doing the right stuff.

00:17:28.300 So before I let you go, I know it's a very busy time, Keith, but before I let you go, what is your sense, having been the director of Oval Office Operations, what is the sense right now, maybe of the president or of his family?

00:17:44.000 We are 20 hours out from election day beginning.

00:17:47.720 I don't – every – I want to feel – I feel good.

00:17:50.940 I guess I have this kind of brimming hope in me, but I just don't know.

00:17:54.340 It seems like everything's topsy-turvy.

00:17:56.300 What are people thinking?

00:17:58.300 Well, I can tell you, and I'm sure you've heard this all day long, it's going to come down to Pennsylvania, right?

00:18:03.900 I think Mr. Trump, everything, assuming everything is on the level and people get out there and do what they have to do, he's going to win.

00:18:12.420 He's going to win the Electoral College.

00:18:14.120 He's going to – it's in the bag.

00:18:16.320 It's a done deal.

00:18:17.500 But unfortunately, as you know, you know, polls are polls, and there's always some type of leeway there.

00:18:23.980 It looks close, but my gut feeling and the people – here, I'm down in Florida, so this is MAGA country down here.

00:18:32.200 They feel that he's going to win, you know, and that's really the only option for this country is if Donald Trump wins this again.

00:18:39.920 He's a fearless man.

00:18:41.460 He's a great leader.

00:18:42.680 And under pressure, this is the guy that you want there.

00:18:45.960 He's a smart man and, most importantly, a patriot.

00:18:49.220 That's the most important.

00:18:50.580 He's going to do the best that he can do for the country.

00:18:53.220 That's all.

00:18:53.960 This is exactly what I'm thinking.

00:18:56.400 You know, I would take a guy who is instinctively a patriot and who has a demonstrably good gut demonstrated over many decades over any nerd from the Beltway establishment who, I don't know, read five more dusty old books on some wonkish nonsense policy out of a think tank.

00:19:16.540 You know, this guy very clearly has America's interests at heart.

00:19:21.440 He could have just retired to one of his many beautiful properties.

00:19:24.240 He didn't.

00:19:24.980 He's put himself literally in the line of fire, and it's how I feel the same as you.

00:19:30.220 I feel hopeful.

00:19:31.420 I think he's going to win.

00:19:33.220 It's difficult because Democrats changed the rules four years ago.

00:19:36.540 But I just think the story cannot end with this guy losing.

00:19:41.540 This guy has got to win.

00:19:44.040 And so if you've not voted, especially if you're in a place like Pennsylvania, get out there and vote right now.

00:19:49.400 Turn off this interview.

00:19:50.440 Pause this interview.

00:19:51.520 Pause this show.

00:19:52.040 You can come back and listen to the show later.

00:19:53.640 But go out there and vote.

00:19:55.580 If you can vote early, set your alarm for tomorrow's 20 hours election day starts.

00:19:59.580 Keith, thank you so much for taking time out of what I'm sure is an extremely busy schedule.

00:20:04.060 And I look forward to seeing you.

00:20:05.540 I hope at some point over the next weeks and months in a celebratory occasion to welcome back the 47th president.

00:20:14.140 You can bank on it, Michael.

00:20:15.760 And it's a pleasure.

00:20:16.720 Thank you, sir, for having me.

00:20:18.200 Thank you very much.

00:20:19.680 All right, everybody.

00:20:20.360 We've got a lot more to get to.

00:20:21.740 We have to get to Peanut the Squirrel and Fred the Raccoon.

00:20:23.840 But, folks, first, it is time to take a stand.

00:20:28.480 The Precision 5 razor from Jeremy's Razors is not just a magnificent razor.

00:20:33.440 It's a declaration of independence.

00:20:35.680 Five meticulously crafted blades deliver a buttery smooth shave as bold as your convictions.

00:20:42.020 Reclaim your masculinity.

00:20:43.700 Stop giving your money to woke corporations that hate you.

00:20:46.660 Order now at jeremysrazors.com or find us at walmart.com and Amazon Prime.

00:20:52.520 Folks, we brought it back one last time at the crucial moment.

00:20:57.940 Now you can get 47% off your new Daily Wire Plus annual membership with code FIGHT at dailywire.com slash subscribe.

00:21:03.500 There's no shortage of media covering the election tomorrow night.

00:21:06.920 The Daily Wire is the only place that you will get the facts from the most trusted voices in conservative media, if I do say so myself.

00:21:12.300 The entire gang will be here along with special guests, Dr. Jordan B. Peterson, Dennis Prager, Spencer Clavin, and more live.

00:21:19.200 Anything could happen.

00:21:20.080 We are covering it all as it unfolds.

00:21:22.080 Do not miss a moment.

00:21:23.400 Go to dailywire.com slash subscribe.

00:21:25.780 Use code FIGHT for 47% off your new Daily Wire Plus membership.

00:21:32.780 How is it looking?

00:21:35.620 I'm just going to keep teasing Peanut the Squirrel for the entire show because there are a few other things I want to get to first.

00:21:40.540 How is it looking?

00:21:41.460 Very troubling poll came out yesterday or two days ago out of Iowa.

00:21:45.880 It's an outlier poll, but it contradicts the other polls which say that Trump's going to win.

00:21:50.880 This poll says Trump is going to lose Iowa.

00:21:53.020 Lose Iowa?

00:21:53.800 Trump won Iowa twice.

00:21:54.920 How on earth could he lose Iowa?

00:21:56.640 Iowa's solidly red over the last decade.

00:21:58.540 Well, according to the Des Moines Register, there was a September Iowa poll that showed Trump with a four-point lead over Kamala.

00:22:08.580 That followed a June Iowa poll which showed him with an 18-point lead over Joe Biden.

00:22:13.340 This was before the Democrats swapped out their nominee.

00:22:17.400 And now we've got this poll showing Kamala with a solid lead over Trump.

00:22:21.840 How do you get that?

00:22:22.860 Well, the pollster, J. Ann Selzer, says,

00:22:24.700 It's hard for anybody to say they saw this coming, but Kamala has clearly leapt into a leading position.

00:22:31.420 The methodology here was a little bit different.

00:22:33.340 The methodology was taking voters at their word when they said that they were definitely going to vote.

00:22:38.240 So a voter comes out and says, I'm definitely going to vote, and here's my preference.

00:22:42.780 The poll just says that person is going to vote.

00:22:45.580 Often polls will weight different voters by their likelihood historically rather than their stated likelihood.

00:22:54.020 Now, on the flip side, that's the bad news is from the Des Moines Register, and it's a reason that Republicans need to get out there and vote, especially Republican men who aren't voting enough.

00:23:02.640 However, then you get a story from the New York Times which shows that the Republicans are looking good and President Trump is looking good.

00:23:09.860 According to the Times, quote,

00:23:11.340 Across these final polls, white Democrats were 16% likelier to respond than white Republicans.

00:23:17.280 So you're getting a disproportionate response from the Dems, which might skew the polls.

00:23:22.420 That's a larger disparity than our earlier polls this year.

00:23:25.360 It's not much better for our final polls in 2020, even with the pandemic over.

00:23:29.500 It raises the possibility, this is the key, that the polls could underestimate Mr. Trump yet again.

00:23:37.680 So what is it?

00:23:38.600 What's it going to be?

00:23:39.280 Is Trump going to win everything?

00:23:40.420 He's going to win the blue wall.

00:23:41.660 He's going to recreate President Reagan in 1984, every state but Minnesota.

00:23:47.380 Or is Trump going to do so poorly, Kamala's going to do so well that he's even going to lose Iowa?

00:23:52.920 The short answer is, no one knows.

00:23:56.980 And the reason no one knows is not just that polls can't really predict the future because no one can really know the future.

00:24:03.720 The reason no one knows is because Democrats changed all the rules last time.

00:24:08.280 That's it.

00:24:08.740 So when conservatives such as myself objected to Democrats rigging the 2020 election, what we meant by rigging the election, as we have stated many times, is that they changed all the rules.

00:24:21.260 In some cases, illegally or unconstitutionally, as in the case of widespread mailings in Pennsylvania in 2020.

00:24:27.620 But they changed the rules, even in some cases legally, to give advantages to Democrats.

00:24:32.820 Now, look, that's the game, I guess.

00:24:34.620 You know, if we want to change the rules back, then we've got to win elections, and we've got to change those rules back.

00:24:40.500 So that's the game.

00:24:41.640 You've got to play within the rules of the game.

00:24:43.960 Otherwise, you're out of the game.

00:24:44.840 Sure, I get all of that.

00:24:46.240 But without whining or lamenting how the rules were changed, it's just to point out that past cannot really be precedent here.

00:24:55.580 Because we don't know, the rules are all different than they were in 2016, 2012, 2008, 2004, 2000, going back decades at this point.

00:25:03.720 So we just don't really know.

00:25:06.300 Will widespread mail-ins, will greater ease of ballot harvesting mean that lower information, lower likelihood voters who usually sit things out are going to have their votes submitted for them or perhaps by them? 0.95

00:25:22.460 Is it going to mean that college students are going to vote at far higher rates, college students much more likely to vote for Democrats because they're young and ignorant? 0.94

00:25:29.540 We just don't know. 0.97

00:25:30.800 We just don't know.

00:25:32.040 So you come into the homestretch here.

00:25:34.740 You've got polls conflicting as much as they possibly could.

00:25:39.180 And then on top of all of that, Democrats in the New York state government murdered a squirrel.

00:25:45.020 They killed Peanut the Squirrel and also Fred the Raccoon.

00:25:51.940 Fred the Raccoon has not gotten as much play as Peanut the Squirrel.

00:25:55.480 New York state law enforcement went into a guy's house.

00:25:57.980 A guy had been making a bunch of TikToks.

00:26:00.120 His name is Mark Longo.

00:26:01.820 Over the years, he's had this pet squirrel.

00:26:03.920 He rescued a little squirrel who was going to die in the wild, I guess, and took him home and made a lot of TikToks about him and his raccoon, Fred.

00:26:12.720 And then the government came in, bust down his doors, take his animals.

00:26:17.340 Then I guess the squirrel bit one of the capturers and then they killed the squirrel.

00:26:21.540 Here is Mr. Longo describing the harrowing scene.

00:26:25.040 We just learned that they have euthanized Peanut.

00:26:30.540 And the raccoon as well.

00:26:31.440 And the raccoon as well.

00:26:34.000 I am so sorry.

00:26:36.420 This must be really difficult for you.

00:26:40.080 It not only tears my family apart, but Peanut was the cornerstone of our nonprofit Animal Rescue.

00:26:46.180 And 10 to 12 DEC officers raided my house as if I was a drug dealer.

00:26:52.100 I was sat outside my house for five hours.

00:26:55.800 I had to get a police escort to my bathroom.

00:26:59.120 I wasn't even allowed to feed my rescue horses breakfast or lunch.

00:27:04.020 I was sat there like a criminal.

00:27:06.760 After they interrogated my wife to check out her immigration status, then proceeded to ask me if I had cameras in my house, then proceeded to go through every cabinet, nook and cranny of my house for a squirrel and a raccoon.

00:27:20.280 They got a search warrant?

00:27:22.000 They got a search warrant.

00:27:24.460 Four departments and a judge signed off on a search warrant for a squirrel and a raccoon.

00:27:30.320 And then they took them and killed them.

00:27:33.580 Why did they go through all that to get a search warrant for an animal that had been with you very safely?

00:27:40.220 The animal had been with him safely for something like seven years.

00:27:43.380 The man is distressed at his squirrel being taken from him.

00:27:46.340 Now, it's not about the squirrel, okay?

00:27:50.640 I know this might not be totally popular among the people who have a real soft spot for animals like squirrels.

00:27:57.160 But my great-grandfather in New York, he was an immigrant from Italy, he used to shoot rabbits and squirrels in his yard and cook them. 0.94

00:28:05.640 So it's not really about the squirrel, I don't think.

00:28:11.180 It's about the resources.

00:28:14.320 New York has all sorts of problems right now.

00:28:17.040 Crime rampant in New York City.

00:28:19.380 You've got that open border.

00:28:22.540 Our southern border is leading to a huge influx of unvetted fighting-age men from foreign countries who have no right to be here who are now filling up the Roosevelt Hotel in Midtown East in New York, just loitering about and smoking pot. 1.00

00:28:38.620 I was just there a week or so ago.

00:28:40.360 I was walking from Grand Central to the Carnegie Club Cigar Lounge, and it's just like a wave of drugs as you walk by the Roosevelt for these poor beleaguered dreamers.

00:28:49.620 I digress.

00:28:50.640 New York is not enforcing its laws, doesn't have the resources to protect people on the street from violent criminals, but they're going to pull out Delta Force to go in there and take some guy's pet squirrel and his pet raccoon and then kill the squirrel.

00:29:06.220 And they said they had to kill the squirrel to see if the squirrel had rabies.

00:29:08.680 The guy had the squirrel for seven years.

00:29:11.040 If the squirrel had rabies, we would know about it by now, right?

00:29:13.680 Wouldn't the guy be dead?

00:29:15.800 There are laws against keeping certain animals.

00:29:18.020 He says he was trying to get the license for the squirrel.

00:29:19.760 I don't know.

00:29:19.960 It took him a long time.

00:29:20.640 I guess seven years to get the license for the squirrel.

00:29:22.520 And I think it's fine to have laws against keeping certain animals, but it's just about priorities here, folks.

00:29:28.080 The Democrats, there's a great meme going around.

00:29:30.780 It's a Democrat stepping upstairs.

00:29:32.480 He goes, arresting illegals. 0.99

00:29:33.800 No, he's going to skip that one. 0.90

00:29:35.100 Arresting rapists, he's going to skip that one.

00:29:36.660 Arresting murderers, he's going to skip that one. 0.99

00:29:38.160 Leg goes straight to killing a squirrel. 0.98

00:29:41.540 That's what they're doing.

00:29:43.440 I know people care a lot about Peanut.

00:29:45.700 He's made a lot of waves.

00:29:47.480 I would point out, again, I'm not saying that the coincidence is causality here.

00:29:53.560 However, remember Cecil the lion?

00:29:57.160 Cecil the lion got shot, cold blood.

00:30:00.060 Harambe, of course you remember Harambe.

00:30:02.200 And now Peanut the squirrel.

00:30:03.960 I can't help but notice all three were killed under Democrat administrations.

00:30:10.020 Is that a coincidence?

00:30:12.620 Yes, it is.

00:30:13.320 But anyway, remember that at the ballot box.

00:30:15.840 Remember that.

00:30:16.520 Remember Peanut and Fred and Cecil and, of course, Harambe. 0.99

00:30:21.020 Okay, what about the polls outside of Iowa, outside of the national polls?

00:30:25.320 Trump is looking good right now, okay?

00:30:27.940 At least he was looking good three or four days ago.

00:30:29.800 I don't know, some last minute skewing.

00:30:31.640 But even New Hampshire right now is looking pretty good.

00:30:34.780 New Hampshire Journal and Precones Analytica poll conducted October 24th to the 26th finds

00:30:40.400 Trump leading Harris 50.2% to 49.8%.

00:30:43.720 So it's very close there.

00:30:44.840 But even in New Hampshire, it would be shocking if Trump won New Hampshire.

00:30:47.640 Republicans haven't won New Hampshire since Bush 2000.

00:30:51.100 Trump is looking good there.

00:30:52.480 There's a Monmouth poll out in Pennsylvania.

00:30:55.300 Trump is just barely ahead in Pennsylvania.

00:30:58.780 Trump won Pennsylvania in 2016.

00:31:01.860 But if you take Trump 2016 out of it, Trump 2024 would be the first Republican to win Pennsylvania

00:31:09.020 since Bush 88.

00:31:11.680 Not George W. Bush, George H. W. Bush, the first go around, 1988.

00:31:17.000 So Pennsylvania really, really matters.

00:31:19.640 Kamala has told voters, especially Catholics, one in four voters in Pennsylvania is a Catholic.

00:31:24.120 She told Catholics she doesn't care about them. 0.52

00:31:26.120 She's going to persecute them. 1.00

00:31:27.840 Said if you believe in Jesus, you shouldn't be at her rally.

00:31:30.700 You're at the wrong rally.

00:31:31.660 Go to the Trump rally down the street.

00:31:33.740 Trump looking good, though it's tight in Pennsylvania.

00:31:37.060 And then Nevada.

00:31:38.020 Nevada also, you'd expect Nevada to go Democrat.

00:31:41.140 Right now, Trump is leading Nevada in the early vote.

00:31:43.780 This is as of, these numbers are a little outdated now, as of last Tuesday.

00:31:47.140 The GOP has an unprecedented lead of 42,796 votes in early voting.

00:31:53.200 Republicans haven't won Nevada at the presidential level since Bush 04.

00:31:57.620 Okay.

00:31:59.100 Now, we don't know.

00:32:00.300 The thing about the early vote here is, we don't know who they voted for.

00:32:04.660 We just know that 307,000 Republicans have voted and 264,000 Democrats have voted.

00:32:11.740 Now, we don't know.

00:32:12.300 There are going to be Democrats for Trump and there are going to be Republicans for Kamala,

00:32:15.840 I guess, like Dick Cheney or Liz Cheney.

00:32:18.360 However, if there is a discrepancy between party ID and who you vote for in this race,

00:32:22.140 I think it's got to favor Trump, doesn't it?

00:32:23.920 I think there are going to be way more Democrats for Trump than there are Republicans for Kamala.

00:32:30.140 I think there are going to be a lot more Democrats following Bobby Kennedy and Elon Musk and Tulsi Gabbard.

00:32:36.960 And there are going to be a lot of people in that disaffected middle who think the left has gone way, way too far and that Kamala is obviously unqualified to be president.

00:32:43.420 There are going to be a lot of those voting for Trump who missed the good old days before the 22% inflation or 30% inflation in some places that we've had over the Biden-Harris administration.

00:32:53.640 So those numbers out of Nevada make me feel really, really good.

00:32:58.200 You know what else makes me feel good?

00:33:00.500 Stamps.com.

00:33:01.580 Keeping a business running during the holidays.

00:33:03.560 It's pure chaos.

00:33:04.420 To make the holidays less hectic, you've got to check out Stamps.com.

00:33:08.640 If your business handles any kind of mailing or shipping, marketing materials, etc., you need Stamps.com.

00:33:13.600 It lets you print postage right from your computer, handles all your mailing and shipping needs.

00:33:18.520 Stamps.com seamlessly connects with every major marketplace and shopping cart for online sellers.

00:33:23.320 You get access to all USPS and UPS services right from your computer or phone.

00:33:27.820 No lines, no traffic, no waiting.

00:33:29.520 Think of it as your 24-7 post office.

00:33:32.120 All you need is a computer and a printer.

00:33:34.700 They will even send you a free scale.

00:33:36.720 You can easily schedule package pickups right from your dashboard and automatically see your cheapest and fastest shipping options.

00:33:43.780 Stamps.com is offering up to 89% off USPS and UPS rates.

00:33:48.380 You can even order shipping supplies labels and printers directly from their supply store when you run low.

00:33:54.580 More holiday, less hustle.

00:33:55.720 Sign up at Stamps.com.

00:33:56.640 Enter code Knowles, K-N-A-W-L-E-S, for a special offer that includes a four-week trial plus free postage and a free digital scale.

00:34:02.500 No long-term commitments or contracts.

00:34:04.520 That is Stamps.com, promo code Knowles.

00:34:07.020 You know you're doing your Christmas shopping early.

00:34:10.140 You've got Black Friday around the corner.

00:34:11.980 Stamps.com.

00:34:14.120 Code Knowles is going to make it a lot easier.

00:34:16.500 My favorite comment yesterday is from Crayola Coffee Bean, who says,

00:34:21.400 My boyfriend and I vote the same, but if we didn't, we wouldn't hide it.

00:34:24.340 We'd discuss it.

00:34:24.980 Yeah, you've got Kamala, you've got the Democrats, you've got Julia Roberts specifically telling women,

00:34:29.860 Hey, go into the voting booth and negate your husband's vote. 1.00

00:34:32.820 Your husband's a Republican.

00:34:34.140 And that whole ad was so awful. 1.00

00:34:35.620 Your husband's a big, fat, dumb, stupid Republican. 1.00

00:34:37.800 Well, deceive him. 1.00

00:34:39.820 Lie to him implicitly and go in there and vote for Democrats. 1.00

00:34:42.900 Cancel out his vote, that big dummy. 1.00

00:34:45.100 No. 0.99

00:34:45.820 That's not good.

00:34:46.800 If you view your role in politics as primarily a way to undermine your husband,

00:34:52.260 you have bigger problems than the next tax bill.

00:34:55.560 No doubt about that.

00:34:57.340 A lot of people are praying in the lead up to the election, praying and fasting,

00:35:02.520 which is a good idea.

00:35:03.440 Prayer and fasting, always a good idea in your regular spiritual life,

00:35:09.540 and especially in times of crisis.

00:35:10.940 And just around that time, President Trump posts this to social media, to Twitter as well as to Truth Social.

00:35:19.760 Happy All Saints Day.

00:35:22.980 You know, All Saints Day is the day after Halloween.

00:35:25.160 That's what Halloween comes from, All Hallows' Eve.

00:35:27.860 The night before All Saints Day.

00:35:30.180 And it's this beautiful picture with our Lord on the cross and all the saints around him in the cloud of witnesses.

00:35:35.820 And beneath our Lord, Our Lady of Guadalupe, which is an image of Mary, Mother of God,

00:35:43.440 that appeared some 500 years ago in Mexico and converted millions and millions of people.

00:35:49.060 And it's a miraculous image from a tilma that's still preserved in Mexico.

00:35:52.920 It would appear miraculously preserved because this should have degraded centuries ago.

00:35:56.900 And also anarchists tried to blow it up with a bomb.

00:35:59.080 And while pews got blown away, the image was preserved.

00:36:03.640 And there was a crucifix actually bent around protecting the image.

00:36:05.920 So President Trump posting this, wishing everyone a blessed and happy All Saints Day.

00:36:10.000 This is the second time that President Trump has posted an image specifically of Our Lady of Guadalupe,

00:36:17.580 this Marian apparition to the Americas.

00:36:20.600 And there are going to be a lot of people who view this cynically, who say,

00:36:26.680 oh, President Trump, he's just pandering to get the votes of Christians, maybe Hispanics, Hispanic Catholics, or I don't know.

00:36:34.060 Posting specifically Catholic images is not necessarily the way that you're going to pander for votes in America.

00:36:40.740 America has been largely a Protestant country for a long time.

00:36:44.180 Even many Hispanics who have come to America are not Catholic.

00:36:46.880 They're Protestant, sometimes Pentecostal.

00:36:48.820 So I don't know if it's that.

00:36:51.140 President Trump has a lot of Catholic influences around him.

00:36:53.580 And also, one thing you've got to remember, 0.98

00:36:56.800 President Trump, by all accounts, should be dead right now. 1.00

00:37:00.560 An assassin trained his gun squarely on Trump's head. 1.00

00:37:03.840 And only because a nanosecond before the bullet would have hit his head, 0.74

00:37:08.560 he turned his head to look at an immigration chart.

00:37:11.180 Did the bullet whiz by most of his head?

00:37:13.100 It did clip his ear.

00:37:15.340 This man almost died.

00:37:16.920 And he's said repeatedly in interviews since then,

00:37:18.820 that experience has got him thinking about God a lot more.

00:37:23.320 It's made him a lot more religious.

00:37:26.260 So I think, I'm not saying I would doubt the sincerity before, but it's now.

00:37:30.200 I think that even for the most cynical observer of President Trump,

00:37:34.640 you've got to look at it and say, yeah.

00:37:36.440 Yeah, no wonder the guy who was shot in the ear

00:37:39.360 and then nearly had his head blown off a second time,

00:37:42.780 no wonder he's thinking about final things.

00:37:44.680 He's thinking about providence and he's thinking about God.

00:37:47.020 And that is ultimately what's going to happen here.

00:37:48.960 We're not going to save ourselves in these elections.

00:37:53.600 It's God's grace that does all the good things.

00:37:56.960 Now you can cooperate with God's grace or you can reject God's grace.

00:38:00.140 And I hope you will cooperate with God's grace tomorrow.

00:38:02.280 We have this opportunity.

00:38:03.540 President Trump's life was spared back over the summer, twice.

00:38:07.380 So you have this opportunity to elect this guy who really did help make our country a lot better.

00:38:13.920 So you can cooperate with that grace or you can reject that grace.

00:38:16.660 But it is ultimately going to be God.

00:38:17.980 And so prayer and fasting, I think a very good idea.

00:38:20.380 Some people disagree with that, like Bill Gates.

00:38:22.140 Bill Gates is calling for a new religion.

00:38:26.620 The potential positive path is so good that it will force us to rethink how should we use our time.

00:38:34.580 You know, you can almost call it a new religion or a new philosophy of, okay, how do we stay connected with each other, not addicted to these things that will make video games look like nothing in terms of the attractiveness of spending time on them.

00:38:53.300 So it's fascinating that we will, the issues of, you know, disease and enough food of climate, if things go well, those will largely become solved problems.

00:39:06.820 Okay, a new religion is what Bill Gates is calling for.

00:39:10.480 Not beating the charges that this man wants to make himself a master of the universe, that this man and his pals in the liberal establishment want to make themselves into gods.

00:39:20.180 Just a point, though, for Bill Gates, who has not thought very deeply about religion, it would seem.

00:39:26.280 New religion means no religion. 1.00

00:39:29.200 New religion means no religion. 1.00

00:39:31.080 New religion, calling for a new religion, means you think there's no real religion.

00:39:36.080 There's only control.

00:39:37.300 It means you view religion as a means of control or a means of social conditioning.

00:39:40.780 And so you want to perfect the religion and tweak it a little bit.

00:39:43.500 You want to make your own religion, which means that you're going to make yourself God. 0.81

00:39:47.520 Religion, though, most basically is a habit of virtue that inclines the will to give to God what he deserves.

00:39:54.900 That's what it is.

00:39:55.720 That's why there aren't really multiple religions.

00:39:59.220 There's only religion. 0.92

00:40:01.800 And people are getting closer or further away from religion, from properly giving to God what he deserves.

00:40:09.300 That's what that is.

00:40:10.380 But to say we're going to make a new religion is to say we're going to have no religion.

00:40:15.040 You're not going to worship God.

00:40:16.360 There's nothing permanently true.

00:40:18.680 You're going to do what I say.

00:40:20.700 We're going to control you.

00:40:21.740 This is what the liberals want.

00:40:23.200 We're going to control you.

00:40:24.060 We're going to rewrite the moral order. 0.95

00:40:25.960 We're going to say that killing babies is not only not a bad thing, but it's a positively good thing.

00:40:33.000 We're going to say that you don't really have rights.

00:40:35.640 You don't really have property.

00:40:36.920 We're going to go in and we're going to take your pet squirrel.

00:40:38.280 And we're not going to enforce any other laws.

00:40:40.800 That we are going to make ourselves into gods.

00:40:44.160 And not like the true God who is synonymous with logic and reason, but gods who are totally unbound by logic and reason, who are pure will, purely transcendent.

00:40:53.560 Those are scary gods indeed.

00:40:56.180 Now, it's a total joke what Bill Gates is talking about here.

00:41:00.100 Speaking of jokes, Saturday Night Live has just aired its annual funny sketch.

00:41:07.220 This is a sketch about the liberals' insistence all the way through till tomorrow that in this election, democracy is on the ballot.

00:41:18.060 And it's through the SNL sketch game show.

00:41:20.740 Guess that name.

00:41:22.260 This is the most important election in American history.

00:41:25.940 Democracy is on the line.

00:41:29.080 Great.

00:41:32.900 Our next question is for $300,000.

00:41:37.220 And here to ask it is the man himself.

00:41:47.680 Hi.

00:41:48.760 I was Hillary Clinton's vice presidential running mate.

00:41:52.000 At the time, you said it was the most important election in American history.

00:41:56.020 And that democracy was on the line.

00:41:58.460 It's been less than eight years.

00:42:00.600 What's my name?

00:42:01.340 Hi, it is an honor.

00:42:10.020 You voted for me to be one heartbeat away from the Oval Office in an election more recent than the release of Zootopia.

00:42:17.120 What's, what's my name?

00:42:18.720 It's not, it's not my fault if he was a more memorable guy like Tim Walls.

00:42:28.040 This is very much a guy like Tim Walls.

00:42:30.600 Let's see them side by side.

00:42:31.880 And they look, they look, and they are just basically indiscernible.

00:42:38.900 What does that mean?

00:42:41.500 That SNL is airing a sketch mocking the liberal insistence, the core of the Kamala 2024 campaign and the core of the Biden 2024 campaign before that.

00:42:53.440 They're mocking the key message of that campaign just days before the election.

00:42:59.260 What does that mean?

00:43:00.920 Does it mean that the fever has broken?

00:43:03.640 Does it mean that even SNL, even the NBC liberal flagship comedy show, is recognizing this ain't selling with voters.

00:43:12.520 Voters don't really believe democracy is on the line.

00:43:15.080 In fact, it's absurd.

00:43:16.020 It's absurd because you have now had a year of Democrats trying to kick Trump off the ballot in the name of democracy.

00:43:26.420 You've had a year of Democrats trying to imprison their chief political rival in the name of democracy.

00:43:31.900 You've had a year of Democrats justifying the assassination that did in fact come to pass in an attempt of President Trump, of their chief rival.

00:43:40.980 By any even remotely reasonable measurement, Democrats pose the threat to democracy.

00:43:49.680 And on top of all that, the Democrats don't even believe what they're saying.

00:43:54.120 Most of them don't even remember that guy who Hillary ran with in 2016.

00:43:59.620 Absolutely right.

00:44:00.440 So, you know, there have been a lot of hoaxes in the 2024 race, really over the past now almost 10 years since President Trump came down that golden escalator.

00:44:10.980 We will get to the Democrats' last hoax.

00:44:15.080 I say the, I don't know, maybe they'll fit five more in, but they only have one day left.

00:44:17.660 So the last Trump hoax that they are launching before the election day actually comes to pass, because we're getting so close to the big moment,

00:44:29.480 I'm very pleased that we are going to keep this show on YouTube, at least until Ben's show now, because The Daily Wire is going to bring you election coverage wall to wall until we figure out who our next president is.

00:44:43.700 So do not go anywhere.

00:44:46.080 I'm so pleased that I have got a pollster who can actually tell us something about what is going on right now.

00:44:53.760 You've got a lot of conflicting reports.

00:44:55.840 That is Brent Buchanan, all coming up on The Michael Knowles Show.

00:45:00.180 Now, before I get to Brent, before I get to the story, I do want to get to my iPad.

00:45:11.700 If you are a Cheme du Lachem, Daily Wire Plus member, then you can write in directly here.

00:45:17.940 If you're just on YouTube, I'm sorry.

00:45:19.900 If you're just a no-knock on the hoi polloi, but we need you to join Daily Wire Plus.

00:45:24.800 Who do we have here?

00:45:27.280 Victorian Lady Esquire.

00:45:28.220 Michael volunteered to do all of this coverage, so he did not have to help at home with a newborn.

00:45:33.500 It is true.

00:45:34.320 The Daily Wire paternity leave policy is about 45 minutes, I would say.

00:45:38.900 You are allowed to be at the hospital, but then you do have to get back very, very quickly.

00:45:44.060 Who do we have here?

00:45:45.920 I'm convinced that most libs don't even know where Kamala stands on most issues. 1.00

00:45:49.320 Ohio Dutchman.

00:45:49.920 I'm convinced Kamala doesn't know where Kamala stands on most issues. 1.00

00:45:52.620 Tomorrow, they need grilled cheese and cookies on backstage, says Zachary H9477.

00:45:57.340 That sounds kind of nice.

00:45:58.540 Is he going to tell us his name, Shima Israel?

00:46:00.640 It's a funny sketch, actually.

00:46:01.640 You should watch the whole sketch.

00:46:04.000 Honey Badger's dead.

00:46:04.920 What do you guys think the impact of Charlie Kirk will be on college voters?

00:46:07.300 Well, Charlie is running a lot of the get-out-the-vote operation.

00:46:10.760 And so, well, I guess we'll get the final score tomorrow, but it seems like he's done a really great job.

00:46:17.500 EJ Colonel Mill.

00:46:18.300 Well, I kind of want the vote to be 269-269 just to see what happens.

00:46:22.440 You know, that would be interesting.

00:46:25.240 I'd prefer a landslide for Trump, but it would be interesting if it came out even.

00:46:32.020 IntergalacticDork.

00:46:32.480 Hi, Michael.

00:46:33.060 I'm finally catching the live stream today.

00:46:35.400 I'm glad to be here.

00:46:36.040 I'm glad that you are here.

00:46:37.100 Thank you for being here.

00:46:39.020 Must be why we have commercials, says Tomer74.

00:46:40.860 That is why you have live commercials today.

00:46:42.460 It's because we are going live all the time.

00:46:45.260 Let's see.

00:46:47.940 iPadBaby, says Patreg89.

00:46:50.060 Creamy people, Victorian lady. 0.89

00:46:51.940 We've got, I've got so much cleaning to do today, says Shady Jim.

00:46:56.160 Putting DW on the TV once the kids are at school.

00:46:58.420 My day is planned.

00:47:00.560 So true.

00:47:02.260 SPG Buffalo Blood and Empire has an average lifespan of 250 years.

00:47:06.060 America's 248 years.

00:47:07.600 My theory is that Kamala wins.

00:47:08.740 We have a new civil war.

00:47:09.460 That is disturbing.

00:47:10.580 I hope that's not the case.

00:47:11.420 But, speaking of wars, Liz Cheney is helping Democrats launch one last hoax before the election. 0.99

00:47:20.040 Liz Cheney responding to an apparent threat against her by Donald Trump.

00:47:25.020 Here's what she says.

00:47:25.620 This is how dictators destroy free nations. 0.99

00:47:30.900 They threaten those who speak against them with death.

00:47:33.980 We cannot entrust our country and our freedom to a petty, vindictive, cruel, unstable man who wants to be a tyrant.

00:47:43.220 Women will not be silenced. 0.99

00:47:44.740 Vote Kamala.

00:47:45.800 Okay.

00:47:46.400 Wow.

00:47:46.960 Man, that's really hardcore.

00:47:48.400 That's intense.

00:47:49.760 What is Liz Cheney responding to? 0.98

00:47:51.980 She's a radical war hawk. 1.00

00:47:56.200 Let's put her with a rifle standing there with nine barrels shooting at her. 1.00

00:48:00.180 Okay. 0.98

00:48:00.460 Let's see how she feels about it.

00:48:02.480 You know, when the guns are trained on her face. 0.99

00:48:05.760 You know, they're all war hawks when they're sitting in Washington in a nice building saying, oh, gee, Will, let's send 10,000 troops right into the mouth of the enemy. 1.00

00:48:15.780 But she's a stupid person, and I used to have meetings with a lot of people, and she always wanted to go to war with people. 1.00

00:48:26.060 Did that sound like a threat to you? 1.00

00:48:28.620 Liz Cheney is saying that Trump is threatening her.

00:48:31.960 Trump says Liz Cheney always wants to go to war. 1.00

00:48:34.560 Okay, let's go see her in the war.

00:48:35.920 Let's go see her staring down the enemy with all the gun barrels. 1.00

00:48:38.720 Let's see if she's so gung-ho to go to war, if it's actually her skin in the game, if it's actually her life on the line.

00:48:44.400 She always wanted to go to war with people when I was in meetings with her.

00:48:47.400 That's what Trump said.

00:48:49.100 She says this is a threat.

00:48:51.240 The irony is that this is the opposite of a threat because Trump is advocating the opposite policy of that which would imperil Liz Cheney's life.

00:49:03.560 Trump is saying Liz Cheney wants to go to war. 0.52

00:49:07.880 Well, what if we sent her to war? 1.00

00:49:09.920 Then she would actually be at risk of death.

00:49:12.680 But I don't want to send people to war, which means I don't want to send Liz Cheney to war or anyone else to war, which means I don't want to imperil Liz Cheney's life.

00:49:23.420 It's exactly the opposite of a threat.

00:49:25.760 But, of course, this is what the libs do. 0.50

00:49:28.040 They just invert things.

00:49:29.880 They don't only pervert things.

00:49:31.000 They do that, too.

00:49:31.640 But they invert things.

00:49:33.560 But this is really desperate stuff.

00:49:35.000 I don't think anyone is really convinced by this.

00:49:38.060 After, I mean, goodness gracious, we don't have enough time, even in this extra block, to recount all the hoaxes.

00:49:43.920 The very fine people hoax or the Russia hoax or then the Ukraine hoax or then the this hoax or the that hoax, the dossier, all the rest of it.

00:49:53.540 Now we've got Trump wants to kill Liz Cheney. 1.00

00:49:56.220 I don't think so.

00:49:56.820 I don't think that one's going to persuade.

00:49:58.660 And, frankly, if it did persuade any voters, it would probably persuade them to vote for Trump.

00:50:01.520 But he didn't say that, okay?

00:50:02.700 He said exactly the opposite.

00:50:05.680 So Kamala Harris is gaining support of the Cheneys. 1.00

00:50:10.420 But she is losing support that is probably more critical to her defeating President Trump. 0.54

00:50:15.760 And that is the support of black men.

00:50:18.200 This is being reflected in polls.

00:50:20.980 You know, Kamala seems to be consistently underperforming with black men compared to Biden in 2020.

00:50:26.220 I was just – coincidentally, I was just speaking to a black politically engaged friend of mine.

00:50:31.800 And he said – I said, yeah, it looks like Kamala's support has suppressed maybe 12 to 15 percent among black men over what she might have expected from Biden 2020.

00:50:40.560 He said, ah, that's not even close.

00:50:43.000 He said, I think that's actually undercounting how underperforming she will be among black men.

00:50:50.140 But Kamala insists the opposite.

00:50:52.140 Kamala goes on The Breakfast Club, which is a show aimed primarily at a black audience, and insists that the brothers are still voting for Kamala.

00:51:00.100 Now, we – VP Harris, this is Lauren.

00:51:03.560 Nice to meet you.

00:51:04.840 We talk a lot up here about the black men conversation and the fact that people, you know, they keep trying to push this whole black men are not supporting Kamala Harris.

00:51:12.380 That's a lie.

00:51:13.600 And my question to you is, you know, the fact that, you know, even if it's a lie, people are still saying it.

00:51:18.720 What is your strong push to any black man right now that feels like you're not speaking directly to them and about the things that they should care about for their families and for themselves?

00:51:26.260 Well, Lauren, I have to tell you back to what Charlemagne is shouting in the background.

00:51:32.120 The brothers aren't saying that.

00:51:33.900 I mean, I was just at the barbershop in Philly talking with very incredible and distinguished men who are leaders in their community.

00:51:44.100 The brothers are not saying that, man.

00:51:45.940 I was just at the barbershop.

00:51:47.180 I would like to have a real-time fact check.

00:51:50.740 Kamala Harris has never just been at the barbershop. 0.62

00:51:54.620 That has never happened ever.

00:51:56.820 I don't, I'm not going to present any evidence for that.

00:51:59.260 I don't even care if she physically was near.

00:52:01.180 She has never been at the barbershop ever.

00:52:03.840 Not once.

00:52:05.480 I do, I like her accent.

00:52:07.280 She's rolling out her best impression of a, you know, man kind of accent.

00:52:11.080 But this is better than her Latina accent, which she unveiled just a few weeks ago.

00:52:15.720 And she said, oh, I love you, too, mommy.

00:52:17.700 Hello, I love you so much.

00:52:19.100 But this one was a little bit more persuasive than that.

00:52:22.120 This is also better than her preacher accent.

00:52:25.400 Hallelujah!

00:52:26.700 The joy cometh in the morning!

00:52:29.040 This one is a little better, but it's still unpersuasive. 0.89

00:52:31.780 The woman's never been at a barbershop, and she would appear, according to the polls, to be underperforming with black men. 0.74

00:52:37.640 But don't take my word for it.

00:52:39.380 We have an actual pollster on the show.

00:52:41.360 That would be Brent Buchanan, an international pollster par excellence.

00:52:45.800 Brent, thank you so much for coming on the show.

00:52:48.060 Hey, good to be with you.

00:52:48.820 So, I've read a lot of commentary on the polls.

00:52:51.960 I've looked at polls.

00:52:53.180 I've done my own analysis of the polls.

00:52:54.980 But I'm not a pollster.

00:52:56.540 I don't actually conduct polls.

00:52:58.140 I don't really know the nitty-gritty of them.

00:53:00.260 Even working on campaigns, the pollsters are a totally separate class.

00:53:04.260 So, I don't know.

00:53:05.280 I'm getting all these conflicting reports.

00:53:06.680 You've got this poll out of Iowa that says that Kamala's going to run away with a state that Trump won twice.

00:53:10.540 And then you're getting the New York Times coming out and saying, actually, the polls are underestimating President Trump's support yet again, as they did in 2016.

00:53:18.840 So, what do I know?

00:53:19.900 I don't know what to believe.

00:53:20.620 What should I believe?

00:53:21.160 I think, first off, pollsters are terrified of being wrong again this election.

00:53:27.160 And I would like to, as a private pollster, divide public and private polling.

00:53:31.720 Because there's many of us who are hired to help guide strategy, like you're talking about, and to explain this is what's going on and why.

00:53:38.020 And if you want to change it, here's what you need to do for messaging or targeting.

00:53:41.300 Public polls just put stuff out, I guess, to get a press release out there for the most part.

00:53:45.220 But I would say that there's been a lot of hurting, which means that these pollsters are trying to make their numbers look like somebody else's numbers.

00:53:53.300 And there's a whole lot you can do on the back end of a poll to make it appear like you want it to appear, either because you want it to look like the other polls that have come out, or you just don't believe the results.

00:54:02.980 And so, you're going to tweak something on the back end.

00:54:05.120 And I love a good outlier.

00:54:06.980 You know, there were a friend of mine in Echelon Insights put out a, I want to say, was like Michigan at Trump plus five.

00:54:12.200 That was a significant outlier.

00:54:13.720 This Iowa at Harris plus three is a significant outlier.

00:54:18.200 But one of the things that we have to do, especially as we're going into the final 24 hours of the campaign here, is realize that there is something to be learned from every poll that comes out.

00:54:27.660 We don't just want to say that's complete bunk.

00:54:29.880 I mean, thinking about if you're getting feedback from somebody at work, and they come to you and they tell you something, and you don't really agree with the premise.

00:54:37.100 They don't give you all the facts that you're going to agree with.

00:54:39.140 But there's about 10% in there that they're actually correct on in giving you feedback. 0.99

00:54:42.940 It's just the other 90% is kind of crap. 0.97

00:54:45.780 And I think that's really what the Iowa poll is, is that most of it, he's going to win. 0.99

00:54:49.380 He's going to win by probably five or more.

00:54:51.600 I wouldn't be surprised if it's more like seven in Iowa.

00:54:54.480 But we have to look at why did that poll come out that way.

00:54:57.560 And it's because Donald Trump is significantly underperforming with seniors in that poll.

00:55:01.860 And he's really underperforming with female voters in that poll.

00:55:05.500 And when you look at the fact that elections are about persuasion to turn out, not persuasion anymore.

00:55:10.300 And you look at the campaigns and where they're spending their time and what they're saying in their final closing remarks.

00:55:16.420 You realize that Harris is talking to seniors and women, and Donald Trump is talking to men and voters of color.

00:55:22.900 And they're both making their closing arguments in that they've got to get those people out.

00:55:28.640 And I've really, I can't think of an election that was so incumbent on both sides actually having to really perform strong on election day.

00:55:35.920 Usually it's more incumbent on Republicans to perform early on election day.

00:55:39.280 But they banked a lot of early votes that they haven't in the past.

00:55:42.120 But that means that there's still tons of people left to turn out in this final 24 hours.

00:55:47.040 Of course.

00:55:47.480 I read that a little over half of Americans have voted early, which is a shocking number, especially because Republicans are generally not inclined to vote early.

00:55:55.880 But then I thought, OK, well, that means by my calculations, a little under half the country still is going to vote on election day.

00:56:01.380 That's a ton of people.

00:56:02.960 And it's all pretty dynamic.

00:56:05.680 That's a really good point on the Iowa poll.

00:56:09.660 Because outliers are kind of fun.

00:56:11.620 But you can glean a little bit of information here.

00:56:14.320 So, all right, Trump has a woman problem, at least in Iowa. 0.96

00:56:17.780 He's got a senior problem, at least in Iowa.

00:56:20.320 How widespread is that problem?

00:56:23.860 You know, how likely is it to deny him a second shot at the White House?

00:56:29.160 Well, the reason that people in the past, at least, have put a lot of credence into the seltzer poll coming out of Iowa right before the election is because that state looks a lot like the key demographics that matter in places.

00:56:41.620 Like Michigan and Wisconsin and, to an extent, Pennsylvania.

00:56:44.900 And so it's almost a bellwether historically for what is going to happen in the rest of those states.

00:56:50.260 And so we actually just also finished our own polls in those three states.

00:56:54.680 And it's incredibly tight.

00:56:56.580 And this whole election season has all been about Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania.

00:57:00.900 And I think what's going to be fascinating is actually going to be Michigan and Wisconsin that are more likely to be the important states for the two campaigns as opposed to Pennsylvania.

00:57:09.480 So, okay, take me through this because I agree.

00:57:12.720 I think there's been an overemphasis on Pennsylvania here.

00:57:15.640 And things have happened in Arizona and Nevada that are really interesting.

00:57:19.600 Arizona looks like it's pretty strong for Trump.

00:57:22.480 And even Nevada seems to be following that.

00:57:24.780 It looks pretty strong for Trump.

00:57:27.600 Michigan, as you point out, looks like the Senate candidate there is looking pretty good.

00:57:31.420 I mean, I don't know, better than maybe I would have expected.

00:57:33.480 And Trump seems to be doing pretty well.

00:57:35.680 And even in Wisconsin, Trump kind of made a closing salvo in Wisconsin over the past few days.

00:57:40.180 So putting Pennsylvania aside for a second, we're sitting all around tomorrow.

00:57:45.660 We're all terrified.

00:57:47.140 We're white-knuckling our chairs.

00:57:49.200 What is the likelihood for Nevada, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina?

00:57:58.420 I don't know.

00:57:58.920 And finally, Pennsylvania.

00:58:01.680 And Georgia.

00:58:02.100 And Georgia, of course.

00:58:03.680 What's really interesting is when you look at Nevada and you look at both candidates' paths to 270 on the Electoral College, Nevada almost doesn't matter.

00:58:13.300 And it's only in about 5% of scenarios where whoever wins Nevada actually makes a difference in somebody's path to 270.

00:58:21.700 That's because it only has six Electoral College votes, two U.S. senators and four congressmen and women. 1.00

00:58:27.300 And even though Trump has done better there, I just have PTSD about the Culinary Union and their ability to turn people out on Election Day.

00:58:38.160 I've seen it over and over again in that state, the Reid machine, the Harry Reid machine that people talk about.

00:58:44.040 And so maybe it's just the PTSD that I'm kind of canceling out some of what I'm seeing on the positive side for Republicans on early vote.

00:58:51.960 But, yeah, Arizona is definitely coming back around.

00:58:55.280 That should be a Trump victory. 0.90

00:58:57.660 Georgia has been much stronger this time for Trump.

00:59:00.280 And these are usually referred to as the Sun Belt states, I guess, because they're a little bit less depressing in the winter than the Rust Belt states.

00:59:06.920 And North Carolina has been, you know, Trump had been performing incredibly well there.

00:59:10.860 And it's actually tightened up according to a number of polls in the last few days.

00:59:14.460 And so we may be sitting here tomorrow night having conversations about the election and watching North Carolina come in and, again, go back to Wisconsin and Michigan and how important those two states might be.

00:59:26.280 And that it could be a unique path to 270 for Donald Trump that nobody's really been talking about.

00:59:31.940 But I would say he has more paths to 270 than than she does.

00:59:36.660 And one thing about Wisconsin that's really important to keep in mind is that out of all the states historically, whether you look at midterms or general presidential elections, it has the highest polling error of any state in the country, sometimes underestimating Republican votes by 6%.

00:59:53.840 I don't think it's going to be that high this time.

00:59:55.860 But if we are talking about states that are nearly tied, you know, within one percent, two percent, a polling error in Wisconsin is more likely to happen than a large polling error in Pennsylvania or Michigan.

01:00:09.820 And so I think you're going to see Donald Trump win Wisconsin.

01:00:13.840 And what's really interesting is Eric Covde, the Republican Senate candidate there.

01:00:17.740 I wouldn't be shocked if he actually outperformed Donald Trump on final margin.

01:00:21.360 Wow. Well, OK, bringing us to the Senate, then it's obviously not just the presidential is up.

01:00:27.280 What is going to happen?

01:00:28.540 It seems almost impossible for the Republicans to screw up taking back the Senate.

01:00:33.900 It seems like we're going to get the Senate.

01:00:35.740 Question is, how many seats are we going to get in the Senate?

01:00:39.040 Are we going to lose the House?

01:00:40.920 And what what are the seats going to be that cost us the House?

01:00:44.900 If you look at the Senate map, this is one of the best Republican Senate maps that we've had in a couple elections.

01:00:50.560 It is much better than twenty six and twenty eight.

01:00:53.400 And so it's the cycle that Republicans really need to overperform in the Senate, because especially if Donald Trump is in the White House in twenty twenty six, that's going to be a tough election year for Republicans in a map that is not nearly as favorable on the Senate side.

01:01:07.180 So you automatically get to 50 with Joe Manchin's retirement because that state he was the only person who could have held.

01:01:13.420 I think he would have lost this year if he ran, which is why he didn't run again.

01:01:17.120 So that gets you to 50. Tim Sheehy, that's the second most Republican state in the nation for Donald Trump that has a Democrat senator sitting in it.

01:01:27.040 So testers likely to fall, Tim Sheehy likely to win there.

01:01:29.840 That takes you to 51. Come over to Ohio.

01:01:33.720 We need a really strong Donald Trump performance in Ohio.

01:01:36.580 He doesn't really need the state because he's going to win it regardless.

01:01:38.980 We just need a really strong Trump margin there for Bernie Moreno to come across the finish line with him, because Sherrod Brown, the Democrat senator there for past couple terms, is a bit of an anomaly, a populist in and of his own right.

01:01:52.200 And so that that gets you to 52. And now you're flirting with 53.

01:01:55.040 53. And if you look at Wisconsin, I think that's the the the first best shot of the next three seats for Republicans, then likely Michigan and then likely Pennsylvania.

01:02:07.160 But they're also close. It's really what we've been tracking is how far has the Republican been in those seats from Trump's margin?

01:02:14.300 And, you know, in Ohio and Montana, you benefit from the fact that Trump could win definitely by double digits in Montana and potentially by double digits in Ohio.

01:02:24.420 And then on the House side, this is going to be a game of both sides losing seats because the current Republican majority runs through California and New York, which is absolutely fascinating.

01:02:35.440 If you told me that Brent 10 years ago, that that is how you build the next Republican majority, I would have laughed at you.

01:02:41.080 But we're here. And I read an article this morning that Katie Porter, who ran for U.S. Senate in California and lost that primary, her seat down in Orange County area, San Diego area.

01:02:56.300 She's actually worried about it. And so you see opportunities to actually maybe pick up a seat in a California in a place like that.

01:03:03.520 The the New York Republican congressmen have been doing a phenomenal job.

01:03:06.980 I think the Mark Mark Molinaro seat in New York 19 is going to end up being one of the most expensive in the nation.

01:03:12.900 Then you have places like Michigan seven, which is Alyssa Slotkin, who's running for the U.S. Senate. 1.00

01:03:17.280 She's Democrat congressman currently. That seat's likely to flip to Republican hands. 1.00

01:03:21.780 But then you also have some Republican seats that we're we're in tough territory with.

01:03:26.540 And so I think it's hard to say the Republicans will definitely have the majority.

01:03:30.460 The Democrats will definitely have the majority.

01:03:32.100 I think the the safest bet in the House is to say that somebody is going to have a really slim majority, potentially even slumber than the current majority.

01:03:38.740 Wow. You know, you mentioned New York 19.

01:03:40.960 That was the first race I ever worked on.

01:03:43.100 Actually, it was the first campaign I ever worked.

01:03:44.740 And back then this would have been 2010.

01:03:47.880 Back then, I think it was the most expensive House race in the country.

01:03:50.960 Not much has changed.

01:03:52.340 You get some real swing districts here in the Hudson Valley or or, you know, I was just talking to Keith Schiller, who's Trump's top security guy.

01:04:01.460 He's also from the Hudson Valley is a lot of Republicans in those parts of California in New York.

01:04:07.020 They could be really, really consequential.

01:04:09.600 Brent got to leave it there.

01:04:11.140 Brent of Signal.

01:04:12.680 Brent Buchanan.

01:04:13.460 Thank you so much for coming on, sharing some insight.

01:04:16.240 And I hope that you're the rosiest of your predictions do turn out to be right.

01:04:20.780 Otherwise, I guess we can have this interview from the Gulag, perhaps, if things don't don't go our way.

01:04:27.160 All right.

01:04:27.480 Thank you, Michael.

01:04:28.140 Thank you, Brent.

01:04:29.200 Okay.

01:04:30.640 Much more to get to.

01:04:31.580 So I really like talking on the poll side of things because the data are sometimes wrong, but they don't lie, you know, and they actually do kind of guide you a little bit.

01:04:40.760 To the point that Brent was making earlier, you know, you can always learn something from a poll, even if the poll is totally bonkers in its premises or the way it's weighted afterward.

01:04:49.080 But then, you know, there's another side of things, which is the consultant side.

01:04:53.680 So we've got a great Republican consultant coming on momentarily.

01:04:57.640 This is Ryan Gerdusky.

01:04:59.880 First, though, I want to get to at least a few questions here in the chat.

01:05:06.040 All right.

01:05:06.160 Who do we have?

01:05:06.660 This is only subscribers, folks.

01:05:09.540 This is not – if you're out there in YouTube land, I appreciate you being here.

01:05:13.120 It's good to subscribe to the Michael Knowles YouTube channel.

01:05:15.320 But if you want to get your questions answered, you want me to send to you my mellifluous tones in response, you've got to be a Daily Wire Plus member.

01:05:25.460 And then you can use code Knowles, and then I can beat out Shapiro on who's signing up the most people.

01:05:30.140 Okay.

01:05:31.160 No matter what, God is in control.

01:05:33.800 Says Hazy Cactus Flower.

01:05:34.860 So true.

01:05:35.320 Tyler H.

01:05:35.880 Michigan needs Mike Rogers and Tom Barrett.

01:05:38.260 Facts.

01:05:38.860 I love your glasses, Mr. Pollster.

01:05:40.860 Says Catherine.

01:05:41.540 So true.

01:05:42.060 And me and my fiancé voted early for Trump in Michigan, waited in line for an hour and a half.

01:05:46.680 Says Mitch Corivo, 30523.

01:05:49.080 That's great.

01:05:50.220 Question is, who were those other people waiting for?

01:05:53.300 You know, an hour and a half, that's amazing.

01:05:55.340 I mean, a lot of people came out to vote early.

01:05:56.800 I went to vote here in Nashville, and I went to one polling location.

01:06:01.000 The line was so long.

01:06:01.940 I had to do an interview, I think, half an hour later.

01:06:05.420 You know, this is Tennessee.

01:06:06.540 This shouldn't take too long.

01:06:07.680 And the line was so, so long.

01:06:09.180 I had to go to a different polling location.

01:06:10.720 So you're hoping those are all Trump people.

01:06:13.000 Those are all Republicans.

01:06:15.820 I don't vote early, says AZ Gagnus Flower.

01:06:18.040 Well, just make sure you vote.

01:06:20.200 I understand some people don't want to vote early.

01:06:22.600 I think it's good to vote early now that the rules have changed.

01:06:24.580 But just make sure you don't forget, or you don't get a flat tire on your way to the polling place.

01:06:32.340 Shesuit Monk33, I've been circulating Michael's 10-minute wrap-up on Biden-Harris.

01:06:35.500 Thank you.

01:06:35.820 You know, I put that out there just for the people who have, you know, they missed early voting.

01:06:40.840 It's about half the country.

01:06:41.920 And last little salvo, right before the election, here is a 10-minute reminder of how disastrous the Biden-Harris administration has been.

01:06:49.640 That's on my YouTube channel right now.

01:06:53.360 So I would say send that around a little bit, you know, if you, not just so that people can see my swarthy features, but just to remind people, this administration has been so disastrous.

01:07:05.480 Most people forget.

01:07:06.920 There's just been so many terrible things that have happened.

01:07:09.120 Most people actually forget them.

01:07:12.700 Michael, when is the Chet Arthur biography coming out?

01:07:14.820 This is Roger the Shrubber.

01:07:16.120 Well, that can be my project from the Gulag if Kamala wins. 0.53

01:07:19.100 Michael, what's the breakfast for election day, says Jack Doe.

01:07:23.160 Well, the breakfast today was a nice little egg in a hole, a hole in one from sweet little Elisa.

01:07:27.280 Two eggs, and then you use the second egg.

01:07:29.120 You put it on the little hole that was cut out of the bread.

01:07:30.900 It was really nice with two shots of espresso.

01:07:32.520 Can't beat that.

01:07:37.280 Real question, who was Hillary's running mate? 1.00

01:07:39.220 I don't even remember Carrie's running mate.

01:07:41.680 Carrie's running mate was John Edwards, and Hillary's was Tim Kaine, the man who could have been the second woman president.

01:07:46.580 I am joined now by Ryan Kerdusky, a Republican strategist and one of my favorite cable news guests of the past couple of weeks at least.

01:07:57.660 Ryan, thank you so much for coming on the show.

01:07:59.660 Thank you for having me.

01:08:01.300 Ryan, I said this at the time when you got booted from CNN for being too witty.

01:08:06.100 I said, I am skeptical of any conservative commentator who is not banned, at least temporarily, from a major cable news outlet.

01:08:14.860 Okay, to me, that is the floor on who I trust on cable news.

01:08:19.600 It was a very, very funny bit.

01:08:20.760 If you haven't seen it, I covered it on my show a week or so ago.

01:08:22.700 If you haven't seen it, go look it up.

01:08:23.900 It was absolutely fabulous.

01:08:25.820 Ryan, you're now focused, obviously, election day is tomorrow.

01:08:30.100 You have actually participated in politics, unlike so many talking heads who have never worked in election in their lives.

01:08:36.580 So what are you thinking?

01:08:37.700 What are you seeing on the ground now?

01:08:38.760 Are you feeling good?

01:08:39.380 Are you feeling bad?

01:08:39.960 Are we going to be doing this interview from the gulag in three weeks?

01:08:42.680 What's the story?

01:08:43.200 You know, it's very nerve wracking, obviously, going to election day.

01:08:47.900 There are some, like polls are good, but when every poll says it's a tie, it's really, I mean, they're kind of worthless.

01:08:53.800 So you have to sit there and look deeper in.

01:08:56.560 So I look at like the New York Times-Siena poll yesterday that came out, the last Siena poll that came out.

01:09:02.460 I noticed something, a really big, important misnomer on their part that I think is very important.

01:09:09.780 Their sample sizes for black voters are way higher than the turnout so far.

01:09:16.620 So like in the state of Georgia, which is one of the highest black voter states of black population in the entire country, they have estimated 29% of the electorate will be black voters.

01:09:26.580 That is the electorate that came out for Obama.

01:09:29.220 Right now it's about 26.5.

01:09:31.480 It might settle down to 26.

01:09:33.360 Typically, day of voters are whiter and more Republican.

01:09:36.740 I have a hard time believing that these people are coming out when they usually vote early and they didn't vote early.

01:09:42.480 And the souls to the polls failed miserably the three weekends in a row that they try to do souls to the polls.

01:09:47.580 So that's my little hunch.

01:09:51.140 The black vote is going to be very instrumental because it's down basically everywhere.

01:09:55.860 And I mean, it's universal across the country.

01:09:58.760 In Ohio, for example, the three counties that have the blackest population, also the three most Democratic counties, they made up 28.5% of all early votes in the state back in 2020.

01:10:12.360 They're down to 24%, 24.75%.

01:10:15.780 In Pennsylvania, Philadelphia is at 43%.

01:10:19.500 Philadelphia County, not just the city, but the county is at 43% of where it was in 2020.

01:10:25.740 These are very difficult numbers to get up and to retrieve on Election Day if the population doesn't seem excited.

01:10:34.120 North Carolina is also down substantially with their black vote.

01:10:36.540 So that's an important thing I will be looking for in Election Day is does the black vote come out?

01:10:40.680 Because 9 in 10 black voters do vote Democrat.

01:10:43.500 Maybe it'll be 8.5 this time, but it's going to be very, very, very high.

01:10:48.040 For every one black voter that doesn't come out, Democrats will need to find, because the propensity of Democrat to Republican is different, they will need, or every 10 black voters, they will need about 60 or 30 college-educated whites to match the 10 black voters who are not coming out.

01:11:09.340 That is how important it is to their coalition to sit there and have these voters come out.

01:11:14.140 So if they don't, I don't know if there's enough college-educated white suburbanites to make up for the loss of these voters.

01:11:20.560 That's the first thing.

01:11:21.380 The second thing is the rules have been blowing up in the Election Day early votes.

01:11:29.560 In massive numbers, in Western Pennsylvania, Republicans are over 100% of where they were in 2020, in basically every county outside the cities of Erie and Pittsburgh, and where College Station is over in the central of Pennsylvania.

01:11:46.600 But almost all Western, almost all Northern Pennsylvania, they're meeting their numbers and exceeding them.

01:11:52.060 Same thing is true in lots of parts of Michigan, in most of Georgia.

01:11:56.620 That doesn't mean that there is not more room to grow.

01:11:58.940 I'm going to be looking at Marjorie Taylor Greene's congressional district.

01:12:01.720 It has one of the worst voting participations in all of Georgia, and it is the whitest and most Republican. 1.00

01:12:08.100 Let's see if they show up.

01:12:09.840 We'll be looking at Western North Carolina.

01:12:11.860 Did the hurricane stop them from showing up?

01:12:14.020 And then I'll be looking at to see if more Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania will have mostly Election Day voters just because they don't have typical early day votes.

01:12:22.980 And then the last thing I think that is worth sitting there and noticing to sit there and see is how are seniors voting?

01:12:30.100 I have talked about this for six to seven months.

01:12:32.900 Senior voting has been in polls in 2016, in 2020, and in 2024.

01:12:40.900 Most polls have Trump losing seniors to Hillary, then Biden, then Kamala.

01:12:48.760 He has never lost those groups to either any of those candidates.

01:12:52.340 I mean, not Kamala yet, but it is more than likely.

01:12:54.500 If there is a major polling error in the states, right, it will be because they oversampled liberal seniors.

01:13:03.080 This is the Selser poll.

01:13:04.560 The Ann Selser poll that everyone shocked in Iowa found the group that had moved the most left from 2020 to 2024, according to the Selser poll, were voters over 65, which in Iowa are basically 100% white, overwhelmingly evangelical, and extremely Republican.

01:13:21.520 Not only did they have senior women being the most Democratic group in the entire state, Trump was even with senior men, senior men who moved 30 points.

01:13:32.520 I think that that is nonsense.

01:13:34.140 I don't believe that to be true.

01:13:36.240 I think that when people are polling, and polling is a very expensive thing to do, liberal seniors who watch Rachel Maddow day in and day out, they cannot wait to tell you how much they hate Donald Trump.

01:13:47.400 A lot of conservative seniors or just middle-of-the-road seniors who like Trump don't want to talk to a pollster, and I think that that is a big thing you may see where you see the polling error that flips states to Trump.

01:13:59.880 If the polling error doesn't exist, then probably Kamala would win, but if it does exist, as I think it does, the states will flip to Trump. 0.93

01:14:05.100 So in terms of how to even read these polls or how to wait these polls, is there a structural issue right now?

01:14:12.800 Namely, that the Democrats changed all the rules in 2020, and so now you've got way more mail-in balloting.

01:14:19.220 You've got certainly way more early voting.

01:14:21.720 You've got more opportunities for ballot harvesting, depending on your state.

01:14:25.420 So is it possible that we just don't really know how to read or even conduct these polls anymore because previously you could say, all right, past is likely to be precedent.

01:14:36.300 We've conducted elections more or less the same way for most of the 20th century, and so you can kind of rely on past performance.

01:14:45.060 Whereas now, as you say, who knows, Election Day voters are usually whiter and more Republican, but I don't know, maybe, you know, usually black voters are more likely to vote for the Democrats, but they seem to not have quite as much enthusiasm.

01:15:00.420 So just like, I don't know.

01:15:03.860 Yeah, I mean, typically, I mean, the polls were pretty good in 2022.

01:15:07.780 Polls were not that terrible in 2020.

01:15:10.580 Actually, no, they were horrible in 2020.

01:15:11.860 I take that back.

01:15:12.380 But in 2022, they were not bad.

01:15:13.700 In 2018, they were not bad.

01:15:15.580 I think when Trump's name is mentioned, there's a certain population that need to tell somebody.

01:15:21.420 I mean, at this point, all white liberal seniors are calling pollsters saying, please hear my opinion. 0.94

01:15:25.580 I have to tell you how much I hate this man.

01:15:28.680 So what a lot of pollsters, what like Nate Cohen of the New York Times, what they're sitting there and they're predicting, not predicting, but what they are hypothesizing is that if you look at the state like New York State, right?

01:15:40.760 New York State, you know, well, you're from here, I'm from here.

01:15:43.020 But everyone knows it.

01:15:44.340 The major city is New York, very diverse, very, very blue.

01:15:47.740 Long Island's redder and ethnic whites. 0.96

01:15:51.100 Upstate is more waspy or more like old American white and with some blue spots in the middle.

01:15:58.160 Dave Cohen is sitting there and saying, if the realignment that you're describing is real, what's going to happen is upstate will get bluer.

01:16:06.100 Long Island may get a little redder because it's more ethnically white, but New York City will get much, much more redder. 0.83

01:16:12.520 The problem is, is like an AOC style district will go from like D plus 40 to D plus 25.

01:16:20.060 Huge swing to the right.

01:16:21.600 Yeah.

01:16:21.740 But still unable to get.

01:16:23.920 So the state moves from a D plus 23 state to a D plus 16 state, which is a tremendous, tremendous movement to the right.

01:16:31.600 But it still results in Republican losses just of how the votes are distributed.

01:16:36.440 Yeah, that's what Cohen is saying and saying Texas will get redder.

01:16:40.000 New Mexico will get redder, Nevada, Arizona, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina.

01:16:43.980 But we'll still lose the Rust Belt because college educated whites are just too liberal now and will overload it. 1.00

01:16:50.760 I don't necessarily believe that because it's all based on, as you said, how do we know who's going to be voting?

01:16:55.680 They base these on voter registration structures and likely voting, voting, voting, past voting, voting structures.

01:17:02.820 If a ton of non-college educated whites show up that didn't show up before, it will change it.

01:17:07.860 I want to put up two really important facts for you really quickly.

01:17:10.820 One, last year, the governor, Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, made automatic voter registration for the state.

01:17:17.040 If you got a license, you were automatically registered to vote.

01:17:19.900 That resulted in a ton of people who had never been engaged before all of a sudden being registered to vote.

01:17:24.680 The second thing is, in 2016, there were 2.66 million non-college educated white Americans in Pennsylvania who were not registered to vote.

01:17:36.320 There is a tremendous pool of untapped voters that we have never seen before.

01:17:40.880 Who knows if they're going to go vote?

01:17:42.160 And the last thing I think is really, really important.

01:17:44.180 Right now in Pennsylvania, these western counties are huge turnout for the Republicans.

01:17:48.820 But you know what the highest turnout percentage-wise compared to 2020 for the Democrats are?

01:17:54.680 Super, super red counties.

01:17:56.740 Tioga, Potter.

01:17:58.240 These are rural, rural counties that Trump is going to get between 70% and 80% in.

01:18:03.400 The only way Trump gets 70% to 80% is a lot of Democrats in those counties vote Republican.

01:18:09.740 It could be, and we don't know this until after Election Day, but it could be that we're seeing conservative Democrats who make the state much more narrow because they have a huge voter advantage, registration voter advantage lead,

01:18:20.040 are also showing up and excited for Trump.

01:18:22.720 I don't know that, but it would explain why super, super, super red counties in the state have the highest percentage of Democrat vote compared to 2020, is that the conservative Democrats are also voting for Donald Trump right now.

01:18:36.320 Right, right.

01:18:36.500 So we'll see.

01:18:36.920 Because I saw in Nevada it looked like Republicans had a real runaway early vote lead, but of course there has to be a caveat.

01:18:44.140 We don't technically know who these people voted for.

01:18:46.960 They might be Republicans for Kamala.

01:18:48.940 It might be just Liz Cheney's clones all over Nevada, or it could be Democrats for Trump. 1.00

01:18:53.340 But I thought, in this election, if there is going to be a divergence between voter ID and the candidate you vote for, it's obviously going to cut in Trump's favor, right?

01:19:03.820 There are obviously more Democrats for Trump than Republicans for Kamala.

01:19:07.480 Or am I just being too rosy?

01:19:09.320 No, no.

01:19:09.900 I mean, in a state like Pennsylvania, right?

01:19:12.720 So the collar counties outside Philadelphia, I would guess there would be a higher percentage of Republicans voting for Kamala.

01:19:19.440 In Montgomery, in Delaware, those kinds of counties.

01:19:21.620 But they are having very low, comparative to 2020, very low turnout.

01:19:27.020 It is white working class counties that are having the 130, 140% turnover from 2020, where they are voting in huge numbers.

01:19:36.420 If the realignment everyone is talking about, Nate Cohen saying is real is real, then in heavily minority states like Nevada, you're going to see a lot of asymptomatic switch over. 0.83

01:19:47.640 But I think what's more important right now in the run-up to the election is that minorities in Nevada, if you look at where the precincts are, they're not choosing necessarily between Kamala and Trump.

01:19:58.680 They're choosing between voting and the couch.

01:20:00.660 And the couch is winning.

01:20:02.200 In a lot of these places, there is no enthusiasm.

01:20:05.360 David Axelrod talked with us yesterday on CNN.

01:20:08.120 There is no enthusiasm for Kamala Harris coming out of these communities.

01:20:12.860 This is not Obama 08.

01:20:14.520 Like, this is not this historic moment for whatever reason it is.

01:20:18.320 And there's probably a million of them.

01:20:19.880 But this is not where this, you know, this is not 2008 at all when it comes to enthusiasm.

01:20:25.820 Yes, I always thought Obama's rhetoric was a little oversold.

01:20:30.500 I don't think he's the greatest speaker since Pericles, but he is Pericles compared to Kamala.

01:20:36.940 I think it's a law that you have to praise Michelle and Barack Obama every time they speak.

01:20:40.660 I think that's actually a law.

01:20:43.160 It's a federal law.

01:20:44.040 Yeah, yeah.

01:20:44.480 Yeah, it's a federal law.

01:20:45.200 I'm pretty sure, yeah.

01:20:45.940 Death sentence, if you sit there and say anything in their speech.

01:20:48.380 Correct.

01:20:49.220 Now, before I let you go, Ryan, I have to know, we've talked a lot about the presidential.

01:20:52.880 Right now, we're just speaking to Brent Buchanan.

01:20:57.600 It looks like Republicans would have to clutch defeat from the jaws of victory in a way that is shocking, even for them, in order not to take the Senate.

01:21:08.540 And then the House seems a little bit up for grabs.

01:21:10.340 Maybe Democrats take the House. 0.99

01:21:11.800 What's your read?

01:21:12.440 How's it looking?

01:21:13.220 Especially because if the Dems take the House, it's going to be through New York, most likely.

01:21:17.680 Well, through blue states.

01:21:18.880 House majority runs through blue states.

01:21:20.600 I mean, Illinois, 17 is the big one.

01:21:22.880 The problem for Republicans is that we got redistricted pretty heavily in the 2020 redistricting.

01:21:27.880 So, like, a lot of seats in New Jersey and Illinois are just not up for grabs anymore.

01:21:32.000 The other thing I would sit there and say about the Senate seat, I've heard that, you know, Republican numbers are in the mid-single digits in favor of Bernie Marino in Ohio.

01:21:39.920 And it looks like he should win.

01:21:41.940 In Montana, they're doing very, very well.

01:21:44.420 It's basically, in West Virginia, obviously, they're basically all but flipped.

01:21:47.440 The governor and his dog will be the next two senators from West Virginia.

01:21:50.760 The question is, can any of the Midwestern or Nevada Senate races flip?

01:21:57.440 In Nevada, there is a 42,000 Republican advantage over Democrats in the state.

01:22:04.060 This is the first time since 2014 when the very popular Republican Governor Brian Sandoval was running for re-election and won every county in the state.

01:22:12.220 I'm not saying that's going to happen this time, but that's the last time it happened where Republicans were outvoting Democrats in the run-up.

01:22:18.600 And part of it is the enthusiasm thing.

01:22:20.600 So, if there is a shock thing, it could come from Nevada, a shock result.

01:22:25.620 But certainly, Pennsylvania and Michigan and Wisconsin could all be within a point, and we'll have to wait and see.

01:22:33.880 And that's why Democrats keep running. 0.95

01:22:35.460 In Wisconsin, I think they've ran out two third-party candidates as a MAGA candidate and as a Constitution candidate to siphon off votes.

01:22:42.680 That might stop Republicans winning Wisconsin. 0.99

01:22:44.620 But it's very, very tight, and a lot of these Democrats like Casey and Tammy Baldwin have never faced a competitive election before.

01:22:52.880 You know, I think, Ryan, you mentioned that Nevada could be a big surprise.

01:22:57.220 That's Sam Brown there running for Senate.

01:22:59.160 I think many people are saying the reason is because he gave his most prominent and first proper long sit-down interview on the Michael Knowles show.

01:23:07.440 So, I think many people, they're talking—I don't know how many, but there is some number of people who are crediting that with his—

01:23:15.880 Yeah.

01:23:16.280 Look, when Italians sit there and interview people, the world changes. 1.00

01:23:19.420 So, maybe.

01:23:20.060 I mean, that could be it.

01:23:21.380 It's very dynamic.

01:23:22.820 You know, I think that's why, with the hands and the—okay, Ryan.

01:23:25.760 This is very, very helpful to take a look.

01:23:29.960 I am seriously hoping.

01:23:33.900 I feel good.

01:23:34.680 Obviously, people are going to pray, and they're going to fast.

01:23:37.960 And as I've mentioned to everyone that I'm talking to today, either we can do another interview in the future where we can be celebrating,

01:23:45.020 or at the very least, we can conduct a post-mortem interview from the gulags after Kamala ships us all off in a few months.

01:23:53.940 So, Ryan Gerduski, thank you so much for coming on the show.

01:23:56.440 Thank you, Michael.

01:23:57.360 I want to get to a little bit of the iPad before we say goodbye.

01:24:04.680 The Democrats own the polls, says old soldier 1418156.

01:24:10.760 They don't own all the polls.

01:24:11.940 There are some Republican pollsters.

01:24:13.560 The public polls, a lot of them are from Democrat—well, are in conjunction with media outlets, many of which are Democrat.

01:24:18.760 That's true.

01:24:19.140 If Trump wins, he carries the House and Senate just like 16, but they will spend the first six months fighting him like they did with Obamacare.

01:24:27.040 But will they spend the first six months fighting him like they did with Obamacare?

01:24:30.320 Look, if Trump wins, even if Trump doesn't win, let's just say Trump's going to win.

01:24:35.640 The Republicans have to take the Senate, I think.

01:24:37.660 It would be shocking.

01:24:40.060 Like, the architecture of political science would collapse if Republicans somehow lose the Senate or fail to retake the Senate.

01:24:48.160 For the House, I don't know.

01:24:49.140 I just don't know.

01:24:49.840 It's really tough.

01:24:50.760 As Ryan was saying, redistricting was not great for Republicans.

01:24:53.500 It's going to run through blue states.

01:24:54.760 So, I don't know.

01:24:56.060 Even if Trump wins by a lot, even if the Republicans have 53, 54, whatever, in the U.S. Senate, I still don't know that we get the House.

01:25:03.860 Old people at my parish, Catholics at least, are voting Harris Waltz, says, Catholics at that are voting Harris Waltz, says Luke Thomas 12.

01:25:14.320 That is really bad for them, especially, because it would seem inadmissible, impermissible for Catholics to vote for, for Christians of any flavor, to vote for Harris and Waltz. 0.90

01:25:30.000 I mean, the woman wants to kill babies up until the moment of birth or afterward. 1.00

01:25:32.660 These are non-negotiable issues.

01:25:36.220 Senate is basically a lock to go red, at least.

01:25:38.020 That is true.

01:25:38.820 Voting in AZ tomorrow, says Luke Jensen.

01:25:41.480 So true.

01:25:44.080 Catherine, I just met another family at the Traditional Latin Mass yesterday.

01:25:46.720 They're huge Michael Knowles fans.

01:25:48.060 That's great to hear.

01:25:49.200 The red wave is coming here in Vegas.

01:25:50.700 I feel good about Nevada, actually.

01:25:52.840 Now, we will have Mr. Shapiro coming up momentarily.

01:25:57.520 I think he's going to come on in about four minutes.

01:25:59.840 Unless I just go late.

01:26:00.880 If I stay on the air, does that mean that we can just indefinitely postpone, Ben?

01:26:06.800 That sounds, maybe I'll try to do that.

01:26:08.800 That sounds great.

01:26:09.680 Voting in Pennsylvania tomorrow with my hubby, says Kat Grove.

01:26:11.940 That's great.

01:26:12.360 Don't do the Julia Roberts thing where you undermine your, you know, you've got to make sure.

01:26:16.120 I want at least two votes out of the two of you for Trump.

01:26:19.240 Michigan's seventh vote.

01:26:20.520 Tom Barrett, says Tyler H.

01:26:23.140 Logic, not idolization.

01:26:25.940 The trad Democrats, not the socialistic liberals running the party, are really angry about Kamala

01:26:30.480 Harris being forced on them without any primary and having their primary candidate, Joe Biden,

01:26:34.840 being shoved out.

01:26:35.620 That's true.

01:26:36.440 I'm sure they are the kind of more normal Dems.

01:26:39.940 But are they irritated enough to vote for Trump?

01:26:43.320 I don't think so.

01:26:44.020 Are they irritated enough not to vote?

01:26:46.540 Maybe.

01:26:48.360 But, you know, I think most Democrats, if they're hardcore Democrats, are just going

01:26:56.520 to vote for the Democrat.

01:26:57.600 You know, if somehow there were some coup d'etat and Trump had been thrown off the ticket,

01:27:02.700 I would be really irritated.

01:27:04.820 But would I be irritated enough to vote for a Democrat?

01:27:07.420 No.

01:27:08.640 I'd be irritated enough to call for the dismantling of the Republican Party or something like

01:27:13.060 that.

01:27:13.600 But I wouldn't sacrifice the election to the other side.

01:27:16.240 So I don't know that that's going to have a huge effect.

01:27:18.860 Other than the fact that no one likes Kamala Harris. 0.98

01:27:21.640 Other than the fact that she never won a primary vote while running for president.

01:27:25.760 So that, you know, but that's really just a matter of the Democrats replaced Biden with

01:27:29.980 someone who's not a good candidate.

01:27:32.120 Or who appears not to be a good candidate.

01:27:34.060 Had they replaced Biden with Obama 2.0, then, you know, probably people wouldn't really

01:27:38.960 care because voting is just an instrument to get good government.

01:27:42.320 Michael is correct, says Honey Badger's dad. 0.83

01:27:44.300 I want to frame that sentence.

01:27:45.760 I think, I just generally think that's a good thing to believe.

01:27:52.200 Baseball mom of eight.

01:27:53.220 Unfortunately, although Harry Reid is dead, the Harry Reid machine lives on.

01:27:56.360 Vonna would have to be overwhelmingly for Trump in order for him to win.

01:28:01.200 And Harry Reid might vote for Trump, or might vote for Kamala, rather.

01:28:07.260 Bring Brett along for election night, says Kodowl. 0.76

01:28:10.420 201-407-45.

01:28:12.060 That'd be fun.

01:28:12.840 We're good to drag Brett out.

01:28:16.160 Noah Kuntz.

01:28:17.820 Kuntz, I assume.

01:28:18.780 I probably pronounced that incorrectly.

01:28:20.540 200-5-1-1-2-6.

01:28:22.320 What about this question?

01:28:23.060 Was Mary sinless? 0.92

01:28:24.280 Yes.

01:28:25.180 Tyler H.

01:28:26.180 Wait, Harry Reid is dead?

01:28:27.360 Yeah, but Democrats are more ideologically driven than Republicans, says Honest Abe.

01:28:33.600 Yes, they are more ideological.

01:28:36.140 They're not more principled.

01:28:37.520 You know, there's just a difference.

01:28:38.740 Conservatives kind of reject ideology, or they should reject ideology broadly.

01:28:42.640 Because ideology, to quote Michael Oakeshott, is the formalized abridgment of the supposed

01:28:46.320 substratum of rational truth contained in the tradition.

01:28:49.160 And conservatives have a fuller, more thorough view of politics that is based broadly on

01:28:56.040 the tradition, not some irrational, supposedly, substrate of it.

01:28:59.680 So they are more ideological.

01:29:01.200 But conservatives, I think, are more principled, and I think they are more inclined toward virtue.

01:29:07.280 So they have motivations to go vote.

01:29:11.900 Aaron A. 23.

01:29:13.580 Michael, I introduced my father to Mayflower for the first time yesterday.

01:29:16.980 He tried the Dusk, which is my favorite blend, and gave glowing reviews among his top three.

01:29:22.180 He says, well, thank you very much.

01:29:23.100 Please thank your father for trying it out.

01:29:25.140 Beautiful Mayflower cigars.

01:29:26.740 And please thank your father for his excellent taste.

01:29:30.240 We now have coming on a man who has terrible taste when it comes to cigars because he refuses

01:29:37.220 to smoke any of my delicious Mayflower cigars.

01:29:39.320 That would be the one and only Ben Shapiro.

01:29:42.340 Ben, welcome to your show.

01:29:44.680 Wow.

01:29:45.080 I appreciate that, Michael.

01:29:46.000 I've never had somebody throw me to my own show before.

01:29:48.960 So while you're with us, I do have to get your quick gut take.

01:29:53.020 Who takes the election?

01:29:54.220 Which states go?

01:29:55.460 And we will hold you accountable for this.

01:29:56.740 So if you're wrong, you'll be fired.

01:29:57.520 Hold on.

01:29:57.780 How specific do I have to be?

01:29:59.340 Luckily, you're asking me this question right after you get the shock poll out of Iowa

01:30:03.120 that says that all the other polls are wrong about everything.

01:30:05.420 I think Trump wins.

01:30:09.480 I would bet at least a modest amount of money that Trump wins.

01:30:13.180 Also, I don't know.

01:30:13.900 I mean, who knows?

01:30:14.520 We're all going to be arrested.

01:30:15.100 I'm not going to bet with you because last time we bet was 2016, and I lost some money

01:30:18.300 to you, as you recall.

01:30:19.180 That's a good—you're right.

01:30:20.100 And I still have it framed, even though I mobile deposited the check because I wanted

01:30:23.140 the money to.

01:30:23.820 I say Trump wins.

01:30:24.700 Obviously, Republicans take the Senate, and I'd put it at 52, I feel good about, I don't

01:30:34.360 know, 53, maybe.

01:30:35.580 I'm starting to feel good about Michigan.

01:30:37.400 I think there's actually a good chance in Michigan.

01:30:38.860 I feel kind of good about Sam Brown in Nevada.

01:30:41.720 So I'm going to say, let's stretch.

01:30:44.320 Let's go to 53.

01:30:45.640 For the House, I don't want to make any bets because I don't actually feel that good about

01:30:49.540 the House.

01:30:50.540 But I would say—I would like Republicans to hold a slim majority.

01:30:55.860 But if I really—if you made me put money on the line, I think Democrats could take the

01:31:00.400 House.

01:31:00.620 So which blue wall states do you think Trump takes?

01:31:02.680 Because obviously, he's got to take one of them if he's going to win, obviously.

01:31:05.080 Yes.

01:31:05.680 In—I think Trump is looking—I still feel good about Pennsylvania.

01:31:11.440 I actually think there's a shot in Michigan.

01:31:15.340 I think there's a shot in Michigan, but I probably feel a little bit better about Wisconsin.

01:31:19.400 Okay.

01:31:19.880 What's your take?

01:31:20.400 I think that's right.

01:31:20.880 I think that if I'm looking at the blue wall states, he looks better in Pennsylvania

01:31:24.740 and Wisconsin than he does in Michigan, probably, which is weird because earlier on in the

01:31:28.860 cycle, it seemed to be the reverse.

01:31:31.440 Again, I'm—as you know, I'm a super pessimist, which means that I'm always thinking what's

01:31:35.640 worst-case scenario.

01:31:36.340 Worst-case scenario, the scenario where God hates us most, is the one where Trump takes

01:31:39.760 North Carolina, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and ends up at 268, at which point this thing

01:31:43.880 ends up in the courts because, as you know, Michael, they screwed up the 2020 census, which

01:31:47.660 means that a bunch of electoral college votes were not given to Florida and Texas when

01:31:51.500 they should have been given to Florida and Texas.

01:31:53.180 If the electoral college votes had been properly counted in the 2020 census, Trump could win

01:31:56.680 without any of the blue wall states.

01:31:58.300 So get ready for lawsuits galore from Governors Abbott and DeSantis.

01:32:02.040 If, in fact, this thing ends up at 270, it's 268, you'll end up at the Supreme Court with

01:32:05.680 the Supreme Court determining whether or not any of these states have standing to sue for

01:32:09.260 the Census Bureau's failure to actually properly count the population back in 2020.

01:32:14.560 So that is like the worst-case scenario for the country, which means that if God hates

01:32:17.680 us, which is always a possibility, then that could happen.

01:32:21.260 Well, Michael, we are going to see you on election night tomorrow night.

01:32:24.500 We're going to be together, presumably for the rest of time, because that's how long it

01:32:27.960 takes all of these states to actually count their votes.

01:32:30.340 So we need you to rest up so you can be just as useless as ever, but you can push the Mayflower 0.94

01:32:35.140 cigars and really do your thing. 0.93

01:32:37.340 It'll be awesome.

01:32:38.360 Folks, Michael, I'll see you tomorrow night.

01:32:39.640 All right, see you tomorrow.

01:32:40.220 I will see all of you, along with Ben, tomorrow.

01:32:44.600 This is the Michael Null Show.

The Michael Knowles Show - November 04, 2024

Ep. 1609 - Why I Voted For Trump

Episode Stats

Summary

Transcript