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The Michael Knowles Show
- March 02, 2026
Ep. 1922 - "I Got Him First" Trump's War In Iran Explained In 5 Mins
Episode Stats
Length
1 hour
Words per Minute
168.83952
Word Count
10,231
Sentence Count
898
Misogynist Sentences
2
Hate Speech Sentences
65
Summary
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.
Transcript
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Misogyny classification is done with
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Hate speech classification is done with
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.
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The United States has launched a preemptive war in the Middle East based on the threat
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of weapons of mass destruction and the desire to liberate a people from a regime that we wish
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to change in a country whose name starts with the letters I-R-A. And then one more.
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Does that sound familiar? Are you having deja vu? Yes. Hold on. Two things here and they
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kind of oppose each other. But let's just get this straight right off the bat. Yes. It seems
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crazy that the president who ran specifically against the Bush era regime change wars is now
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launching perhaps the biggest Middle East regime change war that we've ever seen. Yes. Right off
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the bat. That's crazy. Here's the second part, though. The craziest part of all of it
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is that this time it might actually work. I'm Michael Knowles. This is The Michael Knowles Show.
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Welcome back to the show. There's a lot of Iran to talk about. A lot of Iran. We're going to be
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running. We're at the end of this show. You'll say, I ran a marathon today talking about this
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conflict. However, I hope we have time to get to Shia LaBeouf's great interview. One of the
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I want to get into what happened in Iran. I want to get into the political calculation leading up to it.
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I want to get into the three different camps that you can find yourself in. People seem to think
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there are only two camps, pro-war in Iran, anti-war. I think there are really three,
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and I think it tells you a lot about Trump's thinking. I want to get into the grand strategy
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of it all. Were we dragged into this war? Did we lead this war? What's this war even for?
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Is it about regime change? Is it about nukes? Is it about freedom? Is it about American interest?
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I want to get into all of that. However, the first thing I have to touch on
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is the liberal media's reaction. Because the US and Israel launched the strikes on Saturday.
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Friday night, no, I guess it would be early Saturday morning, Iran. But we wake up in
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the United States on Saturday, this has happened. And it worked. It took out the whole top of the
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Iranian regime, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. People are saying Ayatollah Khomeini,
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like the first supreme leader of Iran, but it's Khomeini. Even I mispronounce it,
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and I've been saying this name for many years. Khomeini, Khomeini, whatever. Doesn't really
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matter now. We're not going to be talking about him too much longer. Anyway, here is what the
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Washington Post said in their obituary of the Iranian supreme leader. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei,
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Iran's supreme leader, is dead at 86. Hold on, let me get to the, hold on. No, it's not the first
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part. Here it is. With his bushy white beard and easy smile, Ayatollah Khomeini cut a more avuncular
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figure in public than his perpetually scowling but much more revered mentor. And he was known
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to be fond of Persian poetry and classic Western novels, especially Victor Hugo's Les Miserables.
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They will never outdo this one. We thought that the liberal media, I think it was the Washington
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Post actually, had reached the peak when the leader of ISIS was killed, and they referred to
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him as an austere religious scholar. Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, an austere religious scholar,
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was struck down today. But this, this beats that one by a country mile. With his bushy beard and easy
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smile, they turned the Ayatollah into jihad Santa Claus. It's unbelievable. Bushy beard,
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easy smile. Oh, that affable Ayatollah. He was avuncular, wasn't he? That's a great word. I do
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love the word avuncular. He was avuncular, and he loved Persian poetry, and he loved Victor Hugo's
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Les Miserables. There were actually these tweets from the Ayatollah. I guess, I don't know if the
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Ayatollah really was much of a reader, but he certainly presented himself as a reader.
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And there were all of these tweets going around of all the books he'd read. One of them going
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around yesterday was that he had read Umberto Eco's The Name of the Rose. So I remember one
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time I read The Name of the Rose by Umberto Eco, and I thought, okay, well, now I can confirm two
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bad things have happened to this man in his life. But that novel's not good. That's a bad novel.
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And Les Miserables, okay, anyway, I don't think those are the salient facts about the Ayatollah's
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life. He is not Jihad Santa Claus. He was the leader of a nation that from its inception,
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from the beginning of the regime, had been opposed to the United States. The regime begins
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by taking American hostages, by overthrowing the American ally, the Shah, and then taking American
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hostages. And they have been declaring jihad against the United States for the 49 or so,
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49, 46 years of its existence. So Trump launches Operation Epic Fury. He alerted the nation. Here's
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his telling of the operation.
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Over the past 36 hours, the United States and its partners have launched Operation Epic Fury,
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one of the largest, most complex, most overwhelming military offensives the world has ever seen.
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Nobody's seen anything like it. We have hit hundreds of targets in Iran, including Revolutionary Guard
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facilities, Iranian air defense systems. Just now, it was announced that we knocked out nine ships plus
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their naval building, all in a matter of literally minutes. Iran's formerly supreme leader, Ayatollah
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Khamenei, is dead. This wretched and vile man died like the blood of hundreds and even thousands
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of Americans on his hands and was responsible for the slaughter of countless thousands of innocent
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people all across many countries. The entire military command is gone as well.
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Okay. So there are three camps on war with Iran. People have been debating this for a long time.
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And I have been making the case chiefly that probably we should not go to war with Iran,
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that probably the reward was not worth the cost. However, we have to be very clear about the camps here.
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Because there are arguments that can be made that cover multiple camps. The three camps, as I see it,
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are the peaceniks, who are just simply opposed to war. No more war ever again. The peaceniks used to be
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chiefly on the left. In recent years, you've seen a lot of them on the new right as well.
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You then have the idealists, the idealists, the neocons, the hawks, who have basically never seen
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an adversarial country they didn't want to bomb. The kind of people who believe not only should we
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intervene in pursuit of American interest, but we should intervene in pursuit of American ideals.
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We need to spread democracy all around the world. And maybe that will have good practical effects
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in the end. But ideologically, we cannot tolerate totalitarianism or authoritarianism or anything
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that in any way diverges from Madisonian liberal democracy, if we even still have that.
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That's the idealist hawkish camp. And then there are the people in the middle
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who are realists, who are pragmatic, who are, one might even say, America first,
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certainly in the way Trump means it. I think that's the camp that Trump is in,
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the camp that wants America to be strong, maybe to help the world order, because we are the global
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empire, but also to be strong so that we can be strong to benefit the American people.
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The kind of group that says we need to be tough and intervene around the world so that we get better
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trade deals, so that Americans stop being threatened when we go abroad, so that our enemies do not
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advance, enemies like China and Russia. We're gonna intervene sometimes when it's in our interest,
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when the intervention can be done efficiently, when the benefit will outweigh the cost,
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when that's that camp. And so right off the bat, when we're talking about Iran,
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I'm just gonna write off the peaceniks, the kind of people who say we should never go to war,
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war is always terrible or whatever. That's just not a serious opinion. I have friends who hold that
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opinion on the left and the right, I guess, but that's not a serious opinion. You don't even get
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to join the conversation if that's your view. I'm reminded of C.S. Lewis's excellent essay
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against pacifism. I don't think it's a serious moral point of view, but I certainly don't think
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it's a serious point in statecraft. So write that one off. Now we're left with the realist pragmatic
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types and the hawks and the idealist and the neocon types. So which is this? I think that the decision
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to go to war in Iran was not chiefly led by the neocons and the hawks. I think it was a battle
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from within the realist pragmatic practical camp. When President Trump says America first,
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he's been clear about what that means from the beginning. Some people want to pretend that America
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first means America's not involved anywhere in the world and we never use our military and we never
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go to war. That has never been what Trump has meant by that. Don't forget, when Trump launched
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America first, this iteration of America first back in 2015, 2016, one of his promises was to
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go destroy ISIS. So not only did he talk about intervention, he talked about military intervention,
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not only military intervention, but military intervention in the Middle East. Clearly,
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what he means by America first is in that center camp. We need to be strong. We need to pursue our
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interests. We need to be respected on the world stage. So that's the debate. Now, had I been on the
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National Security Council and nobody invited me, but had I been on it, I probably would have made
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the argument that the risks were too high, that the benefits were not totally clear, that things
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could spiral out of control and things could still spiral out of control, by the way. The early few
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days have been very, very promising. There are a billion things that could go wrong. So I probably
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would have made that argument. But notably, that would not have been a peacenik argument. And I don't
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think the argument that Trump is making is some neocon kind of argument. I think Trump's argument
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is, yeah, yeah, it's high risk, but I can do it. I'm the man who can do it. I'm the man who can get
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all these benefits for us. I'm going to take the risk. Trump's a risk taker. He's, I won't say a
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gambler, but because he does it with skill. But Trump's going to come in and say, I have a great
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record on foreign policy. Look what I did in Venezuela. Look what I did in the Middle East
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in my first term. Look what I did in Russia, Ukraine. I prevented that war from breaking
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out until Biden got in. I can do it. And so the debate is not really over ideology. It's not
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really over even grand strategy preferences, but we'll get to what that means. It's really a debate
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over. Can this guy, can this guy really affect US foreign policy better than any president in our
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lifetimes? And we don't know. It remains to be seen. We are in the early days of this war,
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which President Trump says is going to go on for four weeks, maybe five weeks.
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Famous last words for some other presidents. However, we have to observe the first few days
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have been extremely effective, extremely successful beyond most people's wildest imagination. And
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President Trump has the best record on foreign policy practically in my lifetime.
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So even if some of us would have said, I don't think it's worth the risk. I don't. I think we
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should just deal with the Iranian regime, even though we've been at odds with them since 1979.
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Even if that's the art, it really, there's not a disagreement on strategy here.
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All the serious people want to get rid of the Iranian regime in an ideal world. The only question
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is, can we actually pull this off? Thus far, President Trump is giving us a lot of reason to
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believe that. Now, what this means is that when we read President Trump's no stupid wars,
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no more stupid wars promise from 2016, we heard that. A lot of people heard that as no more wars.
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The emphasis was on the word wars. But what President Trump is showing is, no, no, no,
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the emphasis was on the word stupid. When we say no more endless wars, we heard wars.
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The emphasis was on the word endless. I think Pete Hegseth just made that point.
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I think Pete made a statement maybe this morning. Here's the Secretary of War.
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To the media outlets and political left screaming endless wars. Stop. This is not Iraq. This is not
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endless. I was there for both. Our generation knows better and so does this president. He called
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the last 20 years of nation building wars dumb. And he's right. This is the opposite. This operation
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is a clear, devastating, decisive mission. Destroy the missile threat. Destroy the Navy. No nukes.
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Israel has clear missions as well for which we are grateful. Capable partners. As we've said since
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the beginning, capable partners are good partners. Unlike so many of our traditional allies who wring
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their hands and clutch their pearls, hemming and hawing about the use of force.
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There you have it. This will not be an endless war. This will not be. We're going fast. I think
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what's confounding a lot of people about this, and again, a billion things could go wrong. But the fact
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that this worked so effectively, what's shocking to a lot of millennials, certainly to a lot of Zoomers,
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maybe even to a lot of Gen X, is that in our lifetimes, we have never seen the United States
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military truly unleashed. We've always put all these constraints around it. I mean, under Bush,
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after the initial days of the global war on terror, the U.S. military was told to function basically as
00:16:40.060
an NGO, as some kind of U.N. nonprofit or something to hand out goodies to the locals. They were
00:16:45.660
constrained. Under Obama, they were especially constrained. And so you saw these bungling
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missteps that were generated really by the political class in Washington, not by the U.S. military.
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And I think looking at these operations, Venezuela and now Iran, I think a lot of people are just
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shocked to discover the amazing strength from the perspective of technology and personnel, the just
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amazing, awe-inspiring force of the United States military, because we hadn't seen that unleashed.
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And that changes the calculation. So just to wrap up that bit, should we go to war in Iran? Should
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we not? Obviously, aliyah iakta est, the die is cast. But everyone is debating this from the perspective
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of ideology. Well, I'm an interventionist and you're an isolationist. Isolationist, which is always a term
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of derision, always a term of insult. No, I'm a non-interventionist and I'm a liberty-loving
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America first and you're a warmonger. It's all from ideology. That's not what this is about.
00:17:46.360
The questions that we don't have answers to, frankly, outside of the government,
00:17:50.920
maybe the government doesn't have answers either, but we certainly do not outside the government, is
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was the threat posed by Iran really that great? We don't really know. The government could be lying
00:18:03.400
about it. The government might not even know, but we certainly do not know. Was the threat posed by
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Iran really that great? And two, can we really effectively and efficiently install a friendly
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regime in Iran? Those are the two questions. Not should America ever intervene or not should we
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spread democracy or should it's none of it has nothing to do with any of that. I think from Trump's
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perspective, certainly from my perspective, those are the two questions. What really was the threat?
00:18:36.040
How effectively really can we install a pro-Western regime? If the threat was high and we can easily
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install a pro-Western regime, then obviously this was awesome. This was like the greatest thing ever.
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Trump will go down as one of the greatest presidents in American history.
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Replacing this regime in Iran has been a pretty high American priority since 1979.
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If the threat was not that high and we get bogged down in an endless war,
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Trump will have destroyed his legacy and he will go down in much the same way as George W. Bush.
00:19:09.880
That is serious risk that this guy is taking based on his confidence in the United States military and
00:19:16.540
his confidence in his own statesmanship. Say what you will, that takes serious gulians.
00:19:21.420
Okay, we will get into the reasons for the war, what has happened since. There were protests,
00:19:28.480
according to the liberal media, at U.S. embassies, especially an embassy in Pakistan.
00:19:32.580
There too, you saw the U.S. military unleashed. This ain't the Obama era, guys. This is the real deal.
00:19:38.280
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What are the reasons for war? I want to be real specific. I want to really drill down here on
00:21:13.440
what we're doing. One reason that has been suggested is that Iran was on the brink of a
00:21:18.840
nuclear weapon, something we've been hearing, in my case, almost every year of my life since I was
00:21:25.180
born. What, since the 90s? Really, since the 80s, we've been hearing this. Since before I was born,
00:21:30.460
Iran is on the brink of a nuclear weapon. According to reporting and sources from Capitol Hill and elsewhere,
00:21:37.340
was Iran really on the brink of a nuclear weapon? No. Were they pursuing a nuclear weapon? Yes.
00:21:44.860
Did Trump's military strikes on Fordow last year set back the nuclear program? Yes, obviously.
00:21:51.500
But it couldn't be the case that that was a totally successful operation and Iran was once again on the
00:21:55.820
brink of nuclear weapons. That would be contradictory, but that's not even what was being claimed.
00:22:01.300
Iran was continuing to pursue nuclear weapons. Trump was clearly unhappy with how the negotiations
00:22:08.000
were going. We tried to negotiate with Iran for almost 50 years. They just wouldn't play ball. So
00:22:13.300
Trump said, okay, well, look, I gave them a serious hit over the summer. They didn't want to play ball
00:22:19.880
after that. I guess I got to take out the regime. So brink of nuclear weapons, probably not.
00:22:24.680
There was another claim that Iran was about to launch an attack on US interests. And so we had
00:22:29.740
to preempt that because they were about to launch a missile attack any day now. There is really no
00:22:34.100
evidence of that at all. I think that is just pure propaganda flying around from where I'm not totally
00:22:40.520
sure. But according to the people who were debriefing Congress on this matter, apparently no,
00:22:46.980
Iran was not about to launch an attack on US interests. Now, you could observe that Iran had already
00:22:52.760
seriously harmed US interests because Iran has killed about a thousand US troops over the course
00:22:57.960
of its regime, going all the way back to the 1980s and a lot during the global war on terror.
00:23:05.220
And even recently, it's not like it was over 10 years ago. Iran killed three Americans just two
00:23:10.940
years ago. I think it was January of 2024. So we went in and we blew up the Iranian Revolutionary Guard
00:23:18.340
headquarters, among other military assets. There's video going all around about this,
00:23:23.240
aircraft carriers and destroyers, and we blew it up. Okay, another cause of the war that's been
00:23:30.940
floated is Israel. Did Israel try to drag us into this war? I think the answer is yes, right? According
00:23:38.360
to the Washington Post, the answer is yes. According to Washington Post reporting, which again, grain of
00:23:43.360
salt, they're the ones who said that the Ayatollah was Santa Claus. But still, here's their reporting.
00:23:47.200
In the briefing on Tuesday for the Gang of Eight, which consists of leaders of the House, the Senate,
00:23:52.340
and each chamber's intelligence committees, Secretary of State Marco Rubio indicated to
00:23:57.400
lawmakers that the mission's timing and goals were shaped by the fact that Israel was going to attack
00:24:02.100
with or without the United States, according to a person familiar with the administration's
00:24:05.680
outreach to lawmakers. So the only debate that seemed to be remaining was whether the US would
00:24:10.080
launch in concert with Israel or if the US would wait until Iran retaliated on US military targets
00:24:15.340
in the region and then engage. So this could mean one of two things. One, this could just be the
00:24:21.840
White House trying to fly some political cover and say, no, it's really Israel. But you know,
00:24:25.820
so therefore we were dragged into this. That would be very much in keeping with a statecraft going back
00:24:31.960
millennia. However, it could be totally sincere that Israel has Mossad agents throughout every Iranian
00:24:39.600
interest everywhere. The degree of penetration is absolutely astounding. And they said, okay, no,
00:24:45.460
this is it. This is the moment. We got them. They're all going to be in this meeting. We're
00:24:48.240
going to blow them up now. So we're going to go in and you can deal with it. And the problem is,
00:24:53.220
because the United States is so closely tied to Israel, Iran would not retaliate only by hitting
00:24:58.940
Israeli interests. They would retaliate by hitting American interests. So if Israel even did act alone,
00:25:03.560
we would still get dragged into it. That's just how alliances work. America's a global empire
00:25:07.600
empire and Israel is part of the empire. That's how it goes. People can debate whether or not that's
00:25:11.940
a good thing or whether or not the tail wags the dog sometimes, or whether or not our interests are
00:25:16.740
too closely. We can debate that all day. It's just a fact. Just as Judea was a troublesome province for
00:25:22.880
the Roman empire, so too that neighborhood of the world is tricky for us. It seems to be just part
00:25:29.020
and parcel of the Holy Land. Okay. So that part, I believe Israel was going to do it. Maybe Israel had
00:25:35.880
very good reasons to do it. Israel's wanted to do it, obviously, for a long time and has struck
00:25:39.420
various Iranian interests many times. But Rubio says that's why we had to go in to have an early
00:25:45.800
advantage. Now, was it just Israel dragging us into war? According to the Washington Post, no. You know
00:25:51.860
who else was dragging us in? This is a little interesting tidbit. Saudi Arabia. Now, that's odd.
00:25:58.400
This is one of the most distinctly Muslim countries in the entire world. So you got one of the most
00:26:04.940
distinctly Muslim countries in the entire world, teaming up with the distinctly Jewish country.
00:26:11.240
Historically, they haven't always gotten along. And both of them, according to the Washington
00:26:15.120
Post, lobbying the United States to go in and attack the other regional power and the other
00:26:20.240
very prominent Muslim country, the Shiite Muslim country, Iran. According to the Washington Post,
00:26:25.380
the Saudi leader, Mohammed bin Salman, warned that Iran would come away stronger and more dangerous
00:26:31.520
if the United States did not strike now after amassing the largest military presence in the
00:26:35.660
Middle East since the 2003 invasion of Iraq. And this is according to people who were all speaking
00:26:41.860
on the condition of anonymity. So the idea being, look, we built up these huge military assets in
00:26:47.540
the region, much as we did in Venezuela in the lead up to ousting Maduro. And so if you get all the
00:26:53.560
way there and then Iran really won't negotiate, they just keep stalling, they keep putting everything
00:26:58.420
off. And you don't do anything, then Iran wins the game of chicken. Iran is stronger than it was even
00:27:02.860
before you sent the USS Gerald Ford and the USS Abraham Lincoln into the region. So according to
00:27:08.920
the reporting, which Saudi Arabia denies, Saudi Arabia says, no, we've been consistent in supporting
00:27:13.900
diplomatic efforts to reach a credible deal with Iran. We never lobbied. We never, no, of course,
00:27:19.040
it's the Saudi regime that for a long time denied that they killed Jamal Khashoggi,
00:27:23.240
who also our media lied to us and pretended was some journalist for the Washington Post actually,
00:27:29.420
but actually he was like a Saudi spy. And anyway, but all of that to say, you can't always take the
00:27:34.540
Saudis at their word. And I believe the reporting that they too were lobbying to hit Iran. And
00:27:41.640
regardless, Saudi Arabia supports hitting Iran right now. Riyadh has issued a statement calling on the
00:27:49.700
international community, which really means the United States and Israel, to take all necessary
00:27:54.340
and decisive measures to confront Iran. Okay. There are two other people who I think could have
00:28:01.320
been really pushing us into war. And one of those people is not really talked about, but he happens
00:28:06.260
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Was it, let's see, was it that Iran was on the brink of a nuclear weapon that we went to war? No.
00:29:34.160
Was it that Iran was pursuing nuclear weapons? Yes. Was it that Iran was about to launch an attack on
00:29:38.500
U.S. interests? No. Was it that Iran has already attacked U.S. interests? Yes. Was it Israel? Yes.
00:29:44.180
Was it Saudi Arabia? Yes. Was it the Iranian diaspora? Was it the Iranians, who tend to be
00:29:53.800
very pro-Western, who live in the United States and throughout the West, who have been begging for
00:29:59.300
the U.S. to bomb the Mullahs for decades now? Well, according to the crown prince of Iran,
00:30:04.920
whose father, the Shah, was deposed, yes, this is a great moment. And just wait till you see the look
00:30:12.660
on this journalist's face when Pahlavi talks about how great Trump is for doing this.
00:30:18.320
What is your message to President Trump?
00:30:21.680
My message to President Trump is that I'm here to echo and join millions of my compatriots
00:30:27.800
inside and outside of Iran to thank him for having done and having the courage to do what is not easy,
00:30:35.280
but intervene. And he will go down in the annals of Iranian history as the most celebrated foreign
00:30:41.040
leader that changed the ballgame and changed the world as a result.
00:30:45.060
In January, there's this great bit there at the end where you get the Reza Pahlavi, the crown prince.
00:30:53.440
He says, you know, yes, Trump is the greatest guy ever. We totally love Trump. And then the 60
00:30:59.020
minutes journalist, he goes, uh-huh. Okay. Uh-huh. All right. Next question. No doubt. The Iranian
00:31:04.760
diaspora absolutely loves this. And then there's President Trump. And he's the guy. Was it Israel?
00:31:11.640
Yes. Was it Saudi Arabia? Yes. Was it this threat? Was it that? Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
00:31:15.940
Well, let's get down to basic decision-making. I think this answer from Trump on the cause of war
00:31:20.940
tells you so much about his decision-making process and his grand strategy.
00:31:27.640
I just spoke to President Trump for several minutes about Iran. I asked him about who is going to take
00:31:32.840
over now that the Ayatollah, the supreme leader, is gone. And his answer was interesting. He said the
00:31:38.240
attack was so successful it knocked out most of the candidates. He told me it's not going to be
00:31:43.140
anybody that we were thinking of because they are all dead. I talked to him about the fact that the
00:31:50.500
Iranians had tried to kill him. There was a plot in 2024, an Iranian plot to try to kill Trump. And he
00:31:58.420
said of the Ayatollah, I got him before he got me. They tried twice. Well, I got him first. As for how long
00:32:08.320
the war will go on, the president told me we always thought he always thought it was going to be a four
00:32:13.480
or five week deal. That's what he told me, a four or five week operation. He said it could be shorter and he was
00:32:21.980
prepared to go longer. I got him before he got me. That is the talk of a Manhattan real estate
00:32:31.820
developer. That is the talk of a guy who, by virtue of his previous job, had to deal with the mob.
00:32:38.880
That is tough guy talk. Iran has tried to kill Trump. This is not just based on, you know,
00:32:48.840
intelligence community analysis. A lot of people don't believe intelligence community analysis.
00:32:54.320
Iran has been pretty open about this. This is not, they weren't hiding the ball here. Iran has tried
00:32:58.880
to kill Trump on multiple occasions and threatened to kill Trump for a long time. And then Trump comes
00:33:05.180
out. He goes, yeah, he tried to get me, but I got him first. Funny how that works, huh?
00:33:09.920
Now, this tells you a lot about how Trump views the world. First of all,
00:33:20.220
we're struggling to understand this because we think this is war with Iran.
00:33:26.240
This is not war with Iran. And even some of the messaging you're getting out of the White House
00:33:30.360
here, it's not going to be an endless war. It's not going to be like Iraq. It's not going to be this.
00:33:33.900
Even that, I think, kind of misses the point. Trump just told you what this is about.
00:33:38.720
What the first impulse is about, which is, he goes, yeah, Khamenei, he tried to get me,
00:33:44.960
but I got him first. I was talking to a buddy of mine about this last night, and he made an
00:33:50.020
excellent, excellent point. Trump does not believe in institutions. I love institutions. I'm a
00:33:56.120
conservative. I love it. Trump does not believe in institutions, and I got to give him credit here.
00:34:00.560
I think that he has a really good point when it comes to foreign policy.
00:34:04.840
Trump believes in individuals. He does not believe in institutions. He believes in individuals.
00:34:11.540
Had Trump been the CEO of a Fortune 50 company, Trump would believe in institutions a lot more
00:34:17.560
than he does. He would believe in boards and legacies and contingencies. But Trump was the head
00:34:26.560
of the Trump organization. Trump was the reality TV star. Trump was the guy who is a personal brand.
00:34:32.800
And in Manhattan real estate in particular, you're not dealing with institutions. You're
00:34:36.960
dealing with individuals. So we, when we think of foreign policy, we think, okay, we think of the
00:34:43.300
Chinese Communist Party. Trump doesn't think of the Chinese Communist Party. He probably doesn't
00:34:47.600
know what the Chinese Communist Party is. He thinks that's a waste of time. He knows Xi Jinping,
00:34:51.500
and he knows if he can get along with Xi Jinping. He knows how he can get along with Xi Jinping. He knows
00:34:57.080
what can anger Xi Jinping. He knows what can put Xi Jinping into a corner. He's dealing individually.
00:35:02.400
He knows Kim Jong-un. He doesn't know anything about the regime of North Korea. He knows Kim Jong-un.
00:35:08.320
He knows Vladimir Putin. Look at what he did in Venezuela. Did he replace the socialist regime?
00:35:14.700
Did he go in there and replace that socialist party in Venezuela and replace it with the classically
00:35:20.520
liberal center-right party? No, he didn't do that. He went in. He kidnapped Nicolas Maduro.
00:35:26.960
And then the person underneath Nicolas Maduro, he put in charge. According to reports,
00:35:31.600
he was impressed that she was able to keep up oil exports even amid American sanctions. So he thought,
00:35:37.160
you know, this lady, maybe she can play ball. And then he went in and he said, hey,
00:35:40.920
you're going to run the country now. And he said almost verbatim, if you cross us, we'll kill you.
00:35:46.960
He said, I'm getting the words a little bit off, but he said, look, I think we can work with her.
00:35:52.880
But if she crosses the line, it's going to be worse for her than it was for Maduro. Maduro got
00:35:58.080
kidnapped. She'll get murdered. That's the implication. And you know what? That's worked
00:36:04.480
pretty well. And I suspect that's what's going to happen here. Compare that to George W. Bush in Iraq.
00:36:10.820
George W. Bush in Iraq goes in. We win the military victory. We were at Saddam Hussein in like five
00:36:16.180
minutes. And then what do we do? We disband the Iraqi bath party. We disband the army. We disband
00:36:23.760
all of these institutions because in the Bush view, the institutions are the problem.
00:36:30.660
We need to spread democracy and Western liberalism. And I don't think that's what
00:36:35.620
Trump's thinking. I think Trump's going to go in. He's going to kill the number one guy.
00:36:39.020
And then he's going to kill the number two guy. Trump had to joke about this. He goes,
00:36:42.140
yeah, you know, look, some of the guys we were thinking could take over.
00:36:44.580
Unfortunately, we were so successful, we killed them all. Oops. Guess we're going to have to find
00:36:49.240
someone new. He's kind of trash talking. He's very good at that. But I think Trump is looking at
00:36:54.620
regime change in Iran more like the Maduro model. Because there are two potential meanings of regime
00:37:01.000
change. The first potential meaning is you truly change out the regime, the ideology, the party that
00:37:08.480
is powering the government. But the other way that you use regime change in a looser sense
00:37:13.580
is you take out the leader and maybe you leave the party in place. Maybe you leave the ideology
00:37:21.080
such as it is in place. You just put a new guy in and you put a gun to his head and you say,
00:37:27.640
you're going to play nice. Or you know what's going to happen? We're going to kill you too.
00:37:32.060
And then we're just going to keep killing you until we get a guy that plays nice.
00:37:37.560
Capisce? That worked in Venezuela. I suspect that is what President Trump is doing here.
00:37:46.020
You know, it's funny because all the foreign policy geniuses make fun of Trump. He doesn't
00:37:50.340
understand the nuances of the Shia and the Sunni and the this party and the that party. He doesn't
00:37:56.380
understand the nuances of the Chinese Communist Party and the FSB and the, I don't know. Trump
00:38:03.700
understanding individuals? Talk about a vindication of the great man theory of history. Trump just
00:38:11.060
dealing mano a mano? Seems to have worked out pretty well. And this brings us to the grand strategy here.
00:38:19.460
Trump, what I think he's after is not just revenge or even self-protection for the guy who tried to
00:38:25.620
kill him. I don't think it's just about the oil. I don't think it's about freedom for the people in
00:38:30.440
Iran. I think it's in part about that, but I think it's only about that. I think Trump,
00:38:36.240
I don't think Trump wants to retreat, you know, as an isolationist. I don't think Trump wants to
00:38:41.780
spread democracy around the world. Here is what I think Trump wants. And the Iran strike gives you
00:38:47.180
this perfectly or could give you this perfectly if it doesn't spin out of control. Trump wants to
00:38:52.960
reshape the world order in a way that benefits the United States. The American empire has been
00:38:59.620
on decline for 25 years, since 9-11. Maybe even before that. You know, we had this huge peak
00:39:05.340
because of the dot-com bubble and the information technology revolution. But we were socially
00:39:10.100
becoming weaker. And after the Cold War, we kind of squandered the post-war dividend. And we're just,
00:39:15.320
we were kind of declining. And then we had the bungle in Iraq and Afghanistan, we start declining.
00:39:20.000
We had the global financial crisis, we're declining more. We had the Obama years were
00:39:23.540
really declining. I mean, this is really bad. Then we had Trump come in the first term and kind
00:39:27.880
of staved it off a little bit. Okay. But then Biden, oh my goodness, we just started plummeting.
00:39:32.040
Three million illegals coming in a year. People don't speak English anymore. The economy is on the
00:39:36.940
brink. It's just collapsing, right? And then Trump comes in. And I think what he wants to do is just
00:39:41.480
reset things. Say, no, no, we can win. I mean, even the shock for many Americans, 50 and under,
00:39:50.660
that the American military actually can succeed and succeed beyond people's wildest expectations
00:39:56.740
when the politicians in Washington don't constrain them. When we fight a war to defeat our enemy
00:40:02.080
and get what we want within the confines, I think, of law and justice. Well, if we have time today,
00:40:08.840
we'll get to some people are arguing that this is an illegal war, whether by the law of the
00:40:13.980
constitution or by international law or by just war theory. I'll try to get to that today. If we don't,
00:40:19.020
we'll get to it tomorrow. But that's what Trump wants to do. And from this perspective,
00:40:24.380
I think it is undeniable at this point. Trump understands grand strategy better than any
00:40:31.440
president in our lifetimes. And the proof of this is Iran's reaction, not at the United States or even
00:40:38.280
Israel, Iran's reaction to all the Gulf states after this strike. We'll get to that momentarily.
00:40:43.680
February 1st, this weekend, the moment news broke that the U.S. launch strikes on Iran,
00:40:48.940
the Daily Wire went live immediately. I lost my Saturday morning and my wife wanted to kill me,
00:40:53.300
but it was okay. We had to do it. This is a big event. We brought in real experts.
00:40:56.800
We delivered real analysis. We covered the latest developments as they happened.
00:41:00.460
That kind of live coverage is only possible because of our members.
00:41:03.720
If you value breaking news, investigative reporting, and journalism that helps you understand
00:41:07.420
what is actually happening in the world, go to dailywire.com and become a member today.
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My favorite comment yesterday, or no, on Friday, this is from Waylon Jenkins, 222,
00:41:48.780
who says, I got more prison time for a bar fight. It's a shame. Oh yeah, speaking of violence,
00:41:54.040
you talk about this guy, this Antifa guy, showed up to one of my speeches, threw an explosive,
00:41:59.500
seriously injured a female cop. He should have gotten 20 years instead, or more.
00:42:05.200
That's attempted murder. You throw an explosive in someone's face,
00:42:10.240
and instead he got, I think, two years. Now he's at a halfway house.
00:42:14.120
Pathetic, it's true. You could have gotten more jail time for a bar fight.
00:42:17.760
Okay, Trump's grand strategy here. It's Iran's response that proves in the early days
00:42:26.720
the wisdom of this strategy. So right off the top, Iran declares jihad on the United States.
00:42:34.400
I shouldn't laugh. This is from Visigrad 24. It's breaking. 99-year-old Iranian Grand Ayatollah
00:42:41.780
Nasser Makarem Shirazi has declared jihad against the United States and Israel.
00:42:46.740
Is that really breaking? Would we say breaking? First of all, the guy is almost literally 100 years
00:42:54.460
old. And I'm pretty sure Iran has declared jihad against the United States and Israel for like half
00:43:01.620
his life. For the whole of the Iranian regime. Breaking news. Iran doesn't like America or Israel.
00:43:10.740
Okay, next response. Drones hitting the Saudi Aramco Ras Tanura facility. This is one of the biggest
00:43:22.320
oil export facilities in the entire world. They process 6.5 million barrels of oil a day.
00:43:29.120
This is apparently 7% almost of global oil supply going through this one facility. Iran hits the Saudi
00:43:36.100
facility. Iran hits Oman. Iran hits Bahrain. I think Bahrain. Kuwait. Iran's just hitting these
00:43:46.880
Gulf states. And I think this was probably a pretty bad idea because I think it actually advances Trump's
00:43:55.880
strategy. You don't even have to take my word for it. The Iranian foreign minister has just admitted
00:44:01.920
this was probably not great. Well, there might be a risk. I have been in touch with all of them,
00:44:08.760
as I said, especially with Qatar and Oman foreign ministers. I explained for them what happened in
00:44:14.640
Oman was not our choice. We have already told our, you know, army armed forces to be careful about the
00:44:24.380
targets that they choose. As a matter of fact, you know, our, you know, militaries, military units
00:44:32.260
are now, in fact, independent and somehow isolated. And they are acting based on instructions.
00:44:41.220
You know, the general instructions given to them in advance. No, no, no. This is all big
00:44:47.100
understanding. You understand. This is all. We did not mean. I know Iran hit Oman. I know this
00:44:53.180
seemed very bad and hit Dubai. I know. I don't know. I don't know what accent. It's like almost
00:44:57.780
Russian or something. I don't know. But it is big mistake, Habibi, a big mistake, you see, because
00:45:02.940
we actually don't have any control over our military now. That's basically his argument. His argument is
00:45:08.420
we have no control over our, over our terror, terrorist slash army forces. This was, this is
00:45:16.380
one of the big risks for Iran because the chief problem of Iran over the last 50 years is that
00:45:22.180
they've got one foot in the international order and one foot outside of it. In some ways, they're
00:45:26.600
like a real state. In some ways, they're like a terrorist organization. And so one of the problems
00:45:30.200
is when things start to break down, most charitable view of what he's saying is you lose control of
00:45:35.560
your terrorists. In any case, they hit Dubai. Ah, it's not a good look. Oman. I've been, I've been
00:45:42.260
to Dubai and Oman. They're both very nice places to be. Dubai is a little bit degenerate, but you
00:45:47.840
know, people go there, get up to no good. But Oman is a beautiful, beautiful country. And what these
00:45:54.200
countries desire more than anything in my limited experience there, what they desire is to not have
00:46:01.680
terrorism. They really, they don't want any of that. They don't, these are places, especially Dubai
00:46:06.740
and the Emirates, that thrive on tourism, that thrive on international finance and business, being
00:46:14.620
here to give Westerners a nice place to live where they don't have to pay taxes. That's what they thrive
00:46:18.640
on. When missiles start flying, that becomes an existential threat to their polities. And so what's the
00:46:25.880
grand strategy of this all? This, this is where you really, whether you're totally in support of the
00:46:30.260
Iran war, whether you're skeptical of the Iran war, as I continue to be, as I certainly was before,
00:46:35.380
though now the die is cast and we're all in, you know, with our president and he deserves a fair
00:46:40.160
bit of credibility. And in any case, it's our country. But one can keep a healthy skepticism
00:46:45.220
or whether you, whether you're all for it. Regardless, I think you have to appreciate
00:46:51.120
the grand strategy here. Going back to the first term.
00:46:56.220
First term, what is Trump's signature foreign policy accomplishment? It's the Abraham Accords.
00:46:59.980
Where he gets some of the Gulf states to drop the hostilities with Israel. Israel, which is an
00:47:06.720
American ally. And even if we, even if you don't think they're a great ally, and I think there are
00:47:10.940
arguments that they're a pretty decent ally, but regardless, they are an outgrowth of the American
00:47:15.420
empire. So to get the Gulf states, and we have allies there too, to drop the hostilities with Israel
00:47:22.700
is a great achievement. But it's still kind of loose. It's kind of nebulous. It started to fray,
00:47:29.660
obviously, during the Gaza war. By getting Iran to fire, not just on Israel, not just on some
00:47:38.960
American bases, but to fire on Dubai, but to fire on Oman, obviously to fire on the huge escalation to be
00:47:46.240
hitting Saudi Aramco. To hit all of that codifies, consolidates, reifies the Abraham Accords kind of
00:47:57.840
abstract alliance into a military alliance. It really begins to reshape the region.
00:48:05.340
And China and Russia have taken serious notice of this. Between Venezuela and Iran, we've just cut
00:48:10.840
off almost 20% of China's oil. It won't be a huge deal and they can figure it out, but that's a real
00:48:16.160
hit. The fact that Russia is not coming in to the aid of its client state in Iran tells you that Russia
00:48:22.720
realizes this was a pretty successful move by the United States, and they don't want to get on the
00:48:27.340
wrong side of it. Putin then responds, and within hours of the strike on the Ayatollah, he says,
00:48:33.800
hey, hey, you know that thing you wanted in Ukraine? You know that those security guarantees you
00:48:37.820
wanted in Ukraine? Yeah, we're good with that now. That is a reordering of the world. Again, a billion
00:48:46.520
things could go wrong and it could tarnish Trump's legacy and all that, but you have to give the guy.
00:48:51.760
He has a keen sense of grand strategy, even if it's not totally conscious. I kind of give him more
00:48:57.520
credit than a lot of people do, but this is a really, really smart grand strategy, and it kind of
00:49:04.780
makes a mockery of the whole foreign policy establishment in D.C. for the last 20, 30 years.
00:49:10.320
There's so much more to get to. I don't care. I'm running a little late today. I don't care.
00:49:13.060
There's too much to get to. I just mentioned Russia accepts the security guarantees in Ukraine.
00:49:19.180
Now you've got Muslims overrunning U.S. embassies in Iraq and Pakistan, but even here,
00:49:24.120
look, there's video coming out of the attack on the embassy in Pakistan.
00:49:27.440
Notice something different about this attack than attacks on U.S. embassies under people like Obama.
00:49:34.780
They're screaming, running, babbling. Got it. What's going on here? What's going on here? Well,
00:49:49.900
what's going on is these guys show up to the embassy and the Marines just start shooting them.
00:49:56.640
And the way it's being reported, the headlines, I love this. This is Bloomberg and I think Al
00:50:00.160
Jazeera. I can't tell the difference. It said 10 killed in pro-Iran protests at U.S. consulate in
00:50:05.340
Pakistan. Protests. 10 killed in pro-Iran protests at U.S. consulate in Pakistan's Karachi. That was
00:50:12.500
Al Jazeera. It's a protest. It was a protest. Hey, let's take a look at the protesters. Do we
00:50:16.200
have a picture of the protesters? Oh, okay. It's a guy shooting at the Marines. Got it. Okay. It's a guy
00:50:22.820
with a gun. That doesn't, I'm waiting for the WAPO obituary. If this guy got killed, you know,
00:50:27.960
known for his crisp white shirt and keen ability to balance on one leg. This protester was, yeah,
00:50:37.000
I don't, that's not a protest. That's an attack. And under previous administrations,
00:50:43.640
they would have either been constrained or not properly resourced and fortified.
00:50:48.920
Under this administration, though, we have the Marines. And if you try to storm our embassy,
00:50:55.760
we're going to shoot you. We're going to shoot all of you. And that's a tough, I don't really
00:50:59.080
take pleasure in this. Some people, they, I don't know, they get a little bloodlust up in the war.
00:51:04.200
But you don't, this is a lesson. This is a very tough lesson for people. And it's a lesson that
00:51:09.220
they might not have understood because of the weakness of previous administrations.
00:51:12.580
But this is an important lesson for everyone to recognize. All these people who want to do harm
00:51:19.160
to American embassies or American interests, even at home, this is not Obama. This is not Biden.
00:51:25.200
This is not Obama. If you threaten us, we're going to kill you all. We're going to kill all of you.
00:51:31.540
Why do you think Putin picked up the phone so fast to try to wrap down the Ukraine war the minute
00:51:36.420
this hit? He said, oh, Trump will really do it. He'll just go in, kidnap the leader of Venezuela.
00:51:42.840
Based on a legal predicate, by the way, the guy had an arrest warrant out for him, Maduro.
00:51:47.080
Ali Khamenei. We've been talking about getting rid of these people for 49 years.
00:51:51.800
49, 46. I keep forgetting the number. For a long time. And Trump just goes in and does it.
00:51:58.420
And that sends a message to people that this is not Obama. This is not Biden. This probably is not
00:52:05.120
George W. Bush either. We should point out there have been American losses so far. Confirmed,
00:52:10.460
I think there were three. Three American servicemen have been killed so far. There have been some other
00:52:15.700
injuries. You know, obviously awful. We should all say prayer for the repose of their souls and for
00:52:21.760
their families. Also, multiple F-15s were shot down in Kuwait by Kuwait. It was actually friendly fire,
00:52:29.140
you know, not great coordination from our allies in Kuwait. The good news is, well, we lost the airplanes,
00:52:34.420
but all of the pilots ejected safely. So I don't think any American servicemen were killed in this
00:52:41.520
friendly fire, but pretty scary. In any case, we should pray for their families. What comes next?
00:52:48.180
What comes next? I'm hoping maybe we get a little, I don't know, Cuba. We'll talk about that. Trump's
00:52:54.020
actually already hinting at that. But I think Rubio put it very, very well. What we need to recognize is
00:53:00.560
this is not just about Trump getting some oil. This is not just about, you know, spreading democracy
00:53:06.000
even further than it's ever been. This is not just about the world order as we have known it
00:53:12.660
is over. It is passing away, both because of the passage of time, but also, here's the good part,
00:53:21.200
because it was an order that had America in decline. And now there is a new world order
00:53:31.000
that has the possibility of America in ascent again, of American strength again. There's no
00:53:38.860
guarantee that it actually works. But I think Trump's broadest view of the grand strategy is
00:53:43.680
that he's going to make America great again. And a lot of people, even many people on the right,
00:53:48.520
don't think America can be great again because of all sorts of economic and demographic and
00:53:52.640
cultural reasons. But Trump is serious. When he says, I want to make America great again,
00:53:57.200
he's really serious about that. And he'll either do it or he'll go down swinging. Here's Marco Rubio.
00:54:02.960
The world is changing very fast on a verse. The old world is gone, frankly, the world I grew up in,
00:54:09.640
and we live in a new era, geopolitics. And it's going to require all of us to reexamine what that looks
00:54:15.260
like and what our world is going to be. And we've had many of these conversations that are private,
00:54:21.060
many of our allies, we are our allies. And we need to continue to have those conversations.
00:54:26.280
And I think Saturday, hopefully, and the meeting's live there when we'll listen to them.
00:54:29.540
Okay, before we go, I know I'm running late. I don't care. I have to get to Shia LaBeouf. I
00:54:32.900
promised we'd get to Shia LaBeouf. This is an interview going around. It has nothing to do with
00:54:35.540
Iran. Shia LaBeouf, though, he's led a colorful life. He converted. He had a religious conversion
00:54:42.200
some years ago and converted to Catholicism. It was retaken with the traditional Latin mass.
00:54:46.700
And then recently, around Mardi Gras, he apparently went on a little bit of a bender
00:54:50.320
in New Orleans. I think he was in jail. He had to go sleep it off or something.
00:54:55.300
And then he just, out of the blue, gave this interview.
00:54:59.080
What would you say to Jesus if you could meet him? I wouldn't say sh**.
00:55:04.680
Really? Nah. But I'll kiss.
00:55:07.980
I kiss. I kiss him. I kiss his feet. I don't want to say nothing.
00:55:23.480
Chill out with these questions, Andrew.
00:55:25.340
My bad. I didn't know it was going to make you emotional.
00:55:27.440
Yeah, I'm a real Catholic, bro. A real one.
00:55:29.600
I just thought you had thought about it.
00:55:30.620
Nah, I'm a real one, bro.
00:55:32.760
I want to believe in something.
00:55:34.900
Well, hey, bro, you got to hit your head into the wall hard enough where you just go, f**k it.
00:55:40.840
It's the only way, dog.
00:55:42.240
That's how you find God?
00:55:43.220
Yep, for me.
00:55:44.740
For the hard-headed ones, yeah, you got to go hard.
00:55:47.580
What do you think was the real-life equivalent of you smashing your head on the wall?
00:55:50.580
I put a gun in my mouth. I was ready to kill myself, blow my brains out, writing letters.
00:55:54.680
Yeah.
00:55:55.140
I had dark days. For real, gone. I'm ready to go.
00:55:58.400
Why didn't you do it?
00:55:59.160
But why didn't I do it? Because I'm p*****g and also my mom.
00:56:03.040
So God bless her. She kept me alive that night.
00:56:07.100
This interview is magnificent.
00:56:08.960
I'm not sure if it was ethical to interview him in this way because he's clearly going through something pretty hard right now.
00:56:14.600
And so, you know, probably should pray for Shia and, you know, he should, you know, process this probably out of the public.
00:56:23.800
But in a way, I'm glad he gave the interview because it's really touching in many, many ways.
00:56:29.340
He goes off on all sorts of other questions.
00:56:31.120
He's asked about homosexuality.
00:56:33.680
He talks about Martin Luther.
00:56:35.920
It's a lot.
00:56:36.520
But I love this interview, and I love his response.
00:56:42.120
First of all, his answer is totally right.
00:56:44.420
What would you say if you met Jesus?
00:56:45.800
He said, I'd say nothing.
00:56:47.040
I'd just, I'd kiss him.
00:56:49.160
What would you do?
00:56:50.300
You'd adore God.
00:56:51.960
Of course you would.
00:56:52.920
Of course you would do that.
00:56:53.840
That's what you should do anyway.
00:56:55.280
He says, I'm a real one.
00:56:56.480
He's not saying I'm perfect.
00:56:57.740
He's not saying I'm holier than thou.
00:57:00.060
Certainly not.
00:57:00.500
The whole time, he's speaking in the context of what a sinner he is.
00:57:06.360
It's all the ways he's screwed up his life.
00:57:09.260
But we all listen to, I don't know, I certainly listen to a lot of apologists, theologians,
00:57:17.620
people speaking, especially from an intellectual perspective about God and Christ and the truth
00:57:23.580
of Christianity.
00:57:24.160
And I find it very, very edifying.
00:57:26.300
And that can have great apologetics effects, great evangelical effects.
00:57:31.640
Shia LaBeouf's answer in that one minute clip might have even more stronger evangelical
00:57:41.000
force than like every modern apologist.
00:57:43.860
It just resonates with people because even if you've not been exactly at the place Shia LaBeouf
00:57:51.400
was, we've all been to some version of it, some proximity to despair.
00:57:58.120
And we all have the longing for God because we're human beings.
00:58:02.720
And it was great.
00:58:05.560
Shia LaBeouf is, for all his flaws, for all of his flaws, because of all of his flaws,
00:58:16.720
he is a very, very powerful evangelist.
00:58:21.020
Okay, the rest of the show continues.
00:58:22.120
Now, you do not want to miss it.
00:58:22.860
Become a member.
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Use code NOLS Canada.
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You really have to check out for two months free on all annual plans.
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Tomorrow, we make war.
00:58:48.200
I think it's a desperate plan and foolish.
00:58:51.260
I would save my people from destruction.
00:58:57.000
So should you.
00:58:58.600
This new faith is glad of his judgment.
00:59:01.000
He's waiting on a miracle.
00:59:02.560
And why do you tell me this?
00:59:04.360
Because I think you can give him one.
00:59:06.980
If I lead you into victory, Uther, the men of Britain will proclaim me king.
00:59:11.980
He seeks our deliverance from God when he could so easily just give it to us with his own hands.
00:59:18.420
Not long ago, you offered me the Fisher King sword.
00:59:21.260
I have always believed you were meant to be, High King.
00:59:24.640
How many lives must be lost before you accept the power you were born to wield?
00:59:29.960
For Britain!
00:59:30.560
For Britain!
00:59:39.060
How are we to drive out 15,000 Saxon with only two and a half thousand men?
00:59:45.840
Today, Britain dies!
00:59:57.820
Yes!
00:59:58.260
The Pendragon Cycle.
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