The Michael Knowles Show - Ep. 1929 - Iran： The Least Popular War Ever Launched

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00:00:15.240 The Iran War is officially the least popular war ever to launch in American history.

00:00:22.140 Less popular than Iraq, less popular than Vietnam, less popular than Libya, 0.52

00:00:27.480 which was a disaster from the very beginning.

00:00:30.120 Will President Trump change course?

00:00:32.540 Will he instead change public opinion by the midterms?

00:00:36.740 Do the midterms even matter?

00:00:38.940 I'm Michael Knowles. This is The Michael Knowles Show.

00:00:40.420 Welcome back to the show.

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00:02:43.260 Really bad news on the perception of the Iran war.

00:02:47.960 I have to distinguish here between the actual Iran war, like the boom-boom going on in the Middle East 0.87

00:02:54.520 that President Trump is waging with the Israelis, and the perception of the Iran war.

00:02:59.060 They're different things.

00:02:59.800 The Iran war is, by the standards of war, going pretty well. 0.97

00:03:06.960 The United States military has achieved all of its objectives faster than we were told they were going to,

00:03:13.760 and so it seems to be doing all right.

00:03:15.480 Even some of the downstream effects of the war, like the price of oil shooting through the roof,

00:03:20.280 even that has come down a little bit.

00:03:22.000 There's still some debate over what exactly is going on in the Strait of War moves. 0.99

00:03:24.500 But all things considered, we're killing the people that we set out to kill,

00:03:29.280 and we're giving space for the political movements that we sought to support,

00:03:32.840 and we're deterring the enemies like Russia and China.

00:03:35.740 So all things considered, it's going pretty well.

00:03:39.100 That is not translating to public perception.

00:03:42.380 People hate this war.

00:03:44.340 They hate this war.

00:03:47.520 The New York Times, I know, I know, a big grain of salt.

00:03:50.360 The New York Times has just come out with some polls on this,

00:03:54.760 or with a poll showing the popularity of the war,

00:03:57.800 but other outlets are bringing out polls too, and it's not all that different.

00:04:01.780 To put this in historical perspective,

00:04:06.360 97% of Americans supported World War II when we entered.

00:04:11.320 Not a huge surprise there because we'd been attacked by Japan, 1.00

00:04:15.460 and Germany also declared war on us.

00:04:17.800 So no big surprise there, 97% support.

00:04:20.640 Afghanistan, 92% support.

00:04:22.940 Okay, it was after 9-11.

00:04:25.420 Iraq, 76% support.

00:04:27.940 Iraq was controversial from the very beginning,

00:04:30.180 because Iraq was not directly tied to 9-11,

00:04:34.120 and yet 76% of Americans supported that war.

00:04:37.120 Now it's considered one of the least popular wars we've ever waged.

00:04:40.420 Kosovo, you remember Kosovo?

00:04:42.580 That was this kind of humanitarian war of choice

00:04:45.240 under the Clinton administration.

00:04:46.560 I remember it actually pretty well.

00:04:48.220 58% supported that war at the beginning.

00:04:51.740 And there, truly, there were basically no American interests implicated,

00:04:56.440 and it was a humanitarian effort.

00:04:58.240 Libya, Libya, which was a disaster.

00:05:05.000 A complete Obama bungle.

00:05:07.140 Susan Rice had to go down for that one. 1.00

00:05:09.140 Obama and Clinton just blew it from day one,

00:05:11.700 and then they sent the US military in there.

00:05:14.600 Operations went on for seven months.

00:05:16.180 It was a disaster.

00:05:18.680 47% support at the beginning.

00:05:20.580 This war has only 41% support.

00:05:23.600 Not good.

00:05:28.060 And I could speak until I'm red in the face,

00:05:30.960 blue in the face, whatever the expression is,

00:05:33.120 and say, look, guys,

00:05:35.240 actually, the war is going pretty well,

00:05:37.280 and actually, it does advance America's grand strategic interests,

00:05:40.520 and actually, this has been a priority of US foreign policy for 47 years,

00:05:43.760 and actually, it deters China and Russia,

00:05:45.800 and actually, and actually, and actually.

00:05:46.640 Clearly, something is not connecting here.

00:05:52.200 So, everybody is hoping that the war ends quickly, of course.

00:05:58.340 But there are two ways to read this from the White House's perspective.

00:06:03.140 Either the White House just listened to the wrong people,

00:06:09.180 or the president thinks,

00:06:14.360 look, we're going to make it through this, you know, unpopularity for a little bit,

00:06:18.040 but I'm going to be so successful that I'm going to change public opinion on this

00:06:21.720 before the midterms.

00:06:23.520 Or there is a third possibility that I haven't heard people really talk about,

00:06:26.940 which is that the president has just written the midterms off.

00:06:29.380 I'm not saying that that's what he's doing,

00:06:32.840 but there would be a rationale for it.

00:06:35.440 Because we're going to lose the midterms.

00:06:37.220 We just will, almost certainly.

00:06:39.240 I hate to be the bearer of bad news.

00:06:40.580 I'm actually at a Trump property right now,

00:06:42.640 speaking to members of Congress about the midterms.

00:06:45.380 But it's just a fact, you know,

00:06:47.560 that's what happens in the off year after a major presidential election,

00:06:51.440 especially a presidential election in which your party wins unified government.

00:06:55.100 We're going to lose.

00:06:56.200 The question is just how bad are the losses going to be?

00:06:59.640 Are the losses going to be we lose a seat or two in the House?

00:07:02.360 Or are the losses going to be Antichrist James Tallarico becomes the senator from Texas?

00:07:06.940 Okay, there are gradations to losing here.

00:07:10.740 But we have a razor-thin majority in the House.

00:07:13.440 We're talking effectively one vote.

00:07:16.560 And so there is a rationale here for President Trump to say,

00:07:19.000 look, we're going to lose the House.

00:07:20.800 It's just how the government works.

00:07:22.680 It's not our fault.

00:07:23.380 We're doing really well on a bunch of stuff.

00:07:25.440 On some of it, that's connecting in public perception.

00:07:27.880 On some of it, it's not.

00:07:28.860 But, you know, whatever.

00:07:30.440 That's just what happens.

00:07:31.380 And so if we are going to lose the midterms anyway,

00:07:34.220 you only have to lose a seat or two to lose the House of Representatives,

00:07:36.880 at which point the Democrats are going to get subpoena power,

00:07:39.200 at which point they're probably going to impeach me again,

00:07:41.240 which at this point, whatever.

00:07:42.840 They don't have a legal predicate to do it.

00:07:44.300 It makes me even more of a legend.

00:07:46.140 I'm the only one of two presidents in American history to win a non-consecutive second term.

00:07:50.600 I've already been impeached twice.

00:07:52.240 Go on.

00:07:52.760 Impeach me a third time.

00:07:53.680 Impeach me a fourth time.

00:07:54.580 Whatever just makes me cooler.

00:07:56.160 If that is all going to happen anyway,

00:07:59.020 I might as well make big moves while I still have the government.

00:08:04.840 If all that's going to happen anyway,

00:08:07.160 then I might as well take out the enemy leader of Venezuela,

00:08:13.260 who has a warrant for his arrest down in the United States.

00:08:16.560 We've been trying to take out this regime for 25 years.

00:08:19.080 Maybe I'll just do it because it's the right thing to do.

00:08:23.220 And also it makes me a legend.

00:08:25.140 I did what George Bush couldn't do with Chavez,

00:08:27.900 what Obama couldn't do, what Biden couldn't do.

00:08:29.720 I did it.

00:08:30.700 The Iranian regime, we've been trying to get rid of this regime since 1979. 0.93

00:08:35.300 And really, we've been trying to maintain a pro-Western regime there since 1953.

00:08:41.300 And everyone keeps screwing it up.

00:08:42.900 So you know what?

00:08:43.840 I'm going to do it.

00:08:44.740 Now, we have been trying to turn around American decline for the past quarter century.

00:08:50.160 We've been declining since the 90s, at least.

00:08:53.920 And China's been on the move in the world. 0.72

00:08:56.820 Even Russia, to some degree, has been on the move in the world.

00:08:59.480 They licked their wounds after the Cold War,

00:09:01.160 and then they started marching in through parts of Eastern Europe.

00:09:03.620 Well, you know what?

00:09:04.360 I'm going to turn it around.

00:09:06.080 I'm going to flip Iran. 1.00

00:09:07.260 It could be what's going on here.

00:09:08.520 In any case, there is a way to marry all of these objectives.

00:09:17.520 And the way to marry it is, or the way to marry them is, the war has to end quickly.

00:09:22.560 Now, President Trump has said it's a five-week war.

00:09:25.620 Famous last words, but Trump has a lot of credibility in foreign policy.

00:09:28.820 And he's already achieving his objectives faster even than he had predicted.

00:09:32.540 So, it could be the case that he just turns public opinion around here.

00:09:38.420 But all of that to say, with these polls,

00:09:41.540 the stakes here are even higher for President Trump than we, I think, previously appreciated.

00:09:48.740 I said from the beginning.

00:09:49.840 I said from the beginning.

00:09:51.840 Had I been on the National Security Council, I would have made arguments against this war in Iran.

00:09:56.140 Not because I'm a pacifist, not because of some ideological reason, but just because of the practical, prudential realities.

00:10:03.340 I would have thought it was too big a risk.

00:10:06.300 Trump comes in, and he says, no, we're going to go into Iran.

00:10:08.980 I don't think because of ideology.

00:10:11.740 I think he went in because he felt he could do it.

00:10:14.860 The threat from Iran was high. 0.99

00:10:16.680 The effectiveness with which he could wage the war was also high.

00:10:20.720 And he just bet on himself.

00:10:22.380 Very, very confident guy.

00:10:26.480 Now, the stakes are even higher because he has to turn public opinion around in an historic way.

00:10:32.320 Least popular war ever at launch.

00:10:35.220 Before the midterms, which are in a little over six months.

00:10:40.420 It's a tall order.

00:10:41.480 It's a tall order for anybody.

00:10:42.620 It's a tall order for Pericles.

00:10:43.800 It's a tall order for Count von Metternich.

00:10:45.340 It's a tall order for the greatest politicians in history.

00:10:48.660 Now, Trump's a world historic figure, okay?

00:10:50.940 If anyone can do it, he can do it.

00:10:52.220 But the high stakes just got higher.

00:10:57.500 And even people who are sympathetic to Trump are really fretting.

00:11:02.400 They're panicking.

00:11:04.200 I think of even guys like Joe Rogan.

00:11:06.720 Joe Rogan cozying up to Trump was one of the factors that really shifted momentum in President Trump's favor, I think.

00:11:14.560 Especially among younger voters.

00:11:15.720 Joe Rogan is openly worrying that this could be the beginning of World War III.

00:11:21.060 Yeah, I mean, it's just such a, I mean, the whole, the whole situation internationally has been so tense already.

00:11:33.220 With what's going on in Gaza, with what's going on in Ukraine.

00:11:36.780 It's like, and to add this to the pile, it's like, I mean, it genuinely feels like there's a real possibility that we might be entering World War III.

00:11:47.360 How would that, what would that look like?

00:11:52.020 I don't know.

00:11:52.820 Well, I never expected Iran to start attacking, you know, they launched bombs into UAE, Dubai. 0.73

00:12:01.300 I mean, where else?

00:12:03.260 Joe Rogan worrying that we're on the brink of World War III.

00:12:06.160 Now, don't forget.

00:12:07.700 Don't forget.

00:12:08.340 People were saying we were on the brink of World War III with the Fordo strikes over the summer.

00:12:11.800 And then it was fine.

00:12:12.880 Like, two days later, it was totally fine.

00:12:14.100 People were saying we were on the brink of World War III with Venezuela.

00:12:17.800 And then 88 minutes later, it was fine.

00:12:19.880 It was totally fine.

00:12:20.780 And the regime that Trump has installed, or the person from within the existing regime that Trump has allowed to remain in her role, is doing well and is cooperating with us.

00:12:31.360 So I'm not the one freaking out here.

00:12:33.640 I'm not panicking.

00:12:35.040 I realize the stakes of this Iran war are a little bit higher.

00:12:37.700 But Joe Rogan, I've said for years, one of the great values of Joe Rogan is that he is the median voter.

00:12:46.440 He's not particularly ideological.

00:12:49.100 He's not exactly dogmatic.

00:12:51.140 He's open-minded.

00:12:52.480 He's curious.

00:12:53.740 He's smart.

00:12:54.760 But he's not expert in everything.

00:12:56.500 He's the median voter.

00:12:57.940 He's great as a measure of where people are.

00:13:00.820 And on this issue, he's where the people are on the Iran war.

00:13:05.740 They'll like it.

00:13:06.640 So what is this about?

00:13:10.360 What is going on here?

00:13:11.460 I can explain the polls.

00:13:13.340 I can explain the apparent surprise that seems to have overtaken the White House and some of the Republican prognosticators.

00:13:22.420 In fact, I called this some months ago.

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00:14:53.960 I conducted a highly scientific Twitter poll months and months, six months ago, more.

00:15:00.360 I said, should the U.S. go to war with Iran?

00:15:03.680 80%, 90% said no.

00:15:07.100 And then, immediately underneath, I said, should the U.S. allow Iran to develop nuclear weapons?

00:15:12.400 80% or 90%, almost the exact same number said no.

00:15:18.480 You see, those two statements are at odds.

00:15:20.880 That was the predicament that Trump was in.

00:15:23.960 People could say, well, Iran wasn't that close to a nuclear weapon.

00:15:26.540 Yeah, but they were pursuing it.

00:15:28.740 No serious person thinks they weren't pursuing it.

00:15:32.140 They were openly pursuing a nuclear program, and they were obviously pursuing nuclear bombs.

00:15:37.260 So, you have the American people are overwhelmingly telling you that they want two things that are directly in conflict with each other.

00:15:43.740 Polar opposites.

00:15:46.500 What does that mean?

00:15:48.540 Well, I'll give you another example of this.

00:15:50.300 The majority of Americans today want mass deportations.

00:15:54.280 Mass deportations remain a popular, mainstream political issue.

00:15:59.260 Most Americans want mass deportations.

00:16:01.660 Most Americans want ICE to stop deporting so many people.

00:16:04.700 Excuse me?

00:16:07.480 What?

00:16:08.160 Hold on.

00:16:09.460 Did you guys read the first question before you answered the second question?

00:16:13.360 The two things that most Americans want are directly in conflict with each other.

00:16:17.300 We want more deportations, but we want the people who are doing the deporting to stop deporting so many people.

00:16:23.860 What does that mean?

00:16:25.300 How do we make sense of that? 1.00

00:16:26.600 Are people just stupid? 1.00

00:16:27.460 That's what a lot of the sneering, condescending, political analyst podcast class is going to conclude, that the people are stupid. 1.00

00:16:36.000 I don't think it's that the people are stupid. 1.00

00:16:38.240 I think that what people are expressing is they feel that their situation is precarious. 0.99

00:16:45.340 People feel uncommonly fearful.

00:16:48.080 They are, even more than usual, desirous of safety.

00:16:51.940 And they feel that even the winds right now are precarious.

00:16:56.080 It's the only way to explain how Republicans and Democrats are tied on the economy.

00:17:01.620 Trump has objectively succeeded at every level in the economy.

00:17:07.540 Joe Biden had 9% inflation.

00:17:10.040 Trump's brought inflation way, way down.

00:17:12.300 The stock market has hit all-time highs.

00:17:15.480 Unemployment is down.

00:17:17.800 The economy is doing very, very well.

00:17:21.180 It could always use some improvement, but it's doing very, very well.

00:17:24.020 You say, well, what about housing prices?

00:17:26.420 What about affordability?

00:17:28.200 Rentals declined six months in a row.

00:17:31.840 100% of the rental demand increase in recent years was driven by illegal immigration when you look at California and New York.

00:17:39.620 60% was driven by illegal immigration nationwide.

00:17:42.400 Trump is deporting the illegals.

00:17:44.540 Trump is objectively doing well in the economy.

00:17:46.460 How on earth, after Democrats blew the economy, how could Republicans and Democrats statistically be tied right now?

00:17:52.880 Right now, the polling says, I think, 32% support Trump in the economy, 31% support Democrats, and the rest don't trust either.

00:18:04.340 How could that be the case?

00:18:05.660 Because they feel, even if the economy is doing relatively well right now, they feel it's precarious.

00:18:10.500 That's what it's about.

00:18:13.360 Why do they support the mass depredations and oppose ICE?

00:18:18.340 Because they recognize that the illegal aliens pose a threat to their safety. 1.00

00:18:23.100 They commit crime in the streets.

00:18:24.360 They're tied to the cartels.

00:18:25.560 They bring in drugs.

00:18:26.400 They are a threat to their safety.

00:18:27.600 But they also recognize that the lunatics marching through the streets and rioting and protesting and chasing ICE is also a threat to their safety.

00:18:33.860 They realize that when ICE comes in and does these big raids, then the libs come out of the woodwork and they terrorize the cities for weeks and weeks and don't want that either.

00:18:44.020 What they want is safety.

00:18:45.240 What they want is normal.

00:18:46.440 What they want is a return to a peaceable kind of time.

00:18:50.540 Same thing with Iran. 0.52

00:18:51.640 They don't want Iran to have a nuclear weapon because that's a threat to their safety.

00:18:53.880 They also don't want war in Iran because that is a threat to safety generally and maybe to their safety in particular.

00:19:00.060 That's what it's about.

00:19:00.820 And I think what Trump has to do is just reassure people that daddy's in control.

00:19:07.540 Don't worry.

00:19:07.720 You know, sometimes daddy leaves for a work trip.

00:19:12.240 You know, daddy leaves as a daddy, myself.

00:19:14.640 You leave for a work trip.

00:19:16.200 You come home and everyone's a little tense.

00:19:19.020 Everything's a little.

00:19:19.700 Kids have been screaming.

00:19:20.860 You know, mama's had to juggle a lot. 1.00

00:19:22.080 And sometimes I think the analogy works because Trump actually campaigned on daddy's home in 2024.

00:19:28.820 OK, and sometimes daddy's got to come home and say, hey, hey, hey, it's OK.

00:19:34.320 It's going to be all right.

00:19:35.980 Don't worry about it.

00:19:37.580 No use crying over spilled milk.

00:19:39.360 We're going to clean up those toys.

00:19:41.440 We're going to get everybody.

00:19:42.660 It's OK.

00:19:44.160 That's what Trump has to do.

00:19:45.600 That's that's what Trump has to reassure people of.

00:19:47.700 The fastest way to do that right now is to win the Iran war, achieve serious long term American military objectives in the time within the time span that Trump gave us, which is five weeks.

00:20:00.940 And to tie it all into a coherent vision.

00:20:07.020 And the coherent vision is we're normal.

00:20:10.400 We're going to make things safe.

00:20:12.060 We're going to make things stable.

00:20:13.700 You're a little worried about the economy.

00:20:15.300 Don't worry.

00:20:16.520 Don't worry.

00:20:17.120 We're we're deporting the bad guys.

00:20:19.440 We've got a lot of investment.

00:20:21.180 It's safe.

00:20:21.800 It's stable.

00:20:22.420 It's not you can you can.

00:20:23.440 Not only is your portfolio doing well today, it's going to be doing well in in a month, in six months.

00:20:28.680 Don't worry.

00:20:29.180 We're good.

00:20:30.520 Health care.

00:20:31.120 That's another big issue.

00:20:31.920 That's a top five issue that the Democrats are beating Republicans on.

00:20:34.160 They're always beating Republicans on it because they lie about health care. 0.58

00:20:37.080 Their plans are terrible, but they sound more persuasive than the Republicans do.

00:20:40.700 It's another issue, just kind of like the Iran war, kind of like the deportations, where the reality is by and large pretty good for the Republicans, but the perception is much better for Democrats.

00:20:52.800 What do you do on on health care?

00:20:54.340 You say, you know, speaking of those illegals, they're really jacking up the health care costs, aren't they? 1.00

00:21:00.080 They're jacking up premiums.

00:21:01.460 They're using federally funded programs that go to the states for it.

00:21:04.380 Yeah.

00:21:04.780 So don't worry.

00:21:05.320 We're bringing them.

00:21:06.500 We're doing something.

00:21:07.600 We're bringing the prices down.

00:21:08.620 Don't worry.

00:21:08.980 And on and on.

00:21:11.960 But there has to be a coherent vision.

00:21:14.260 There has to be unity and a coherent vision.

00:21:16.680 Right now, the Republicans are falling into all sorts of fractious infighting and disunity.

00:21:25.540 To the point, division, I guess you would say, not disunity.

00:21:27.720 And to the point that Trump's current activity, his most prominent initiative right now, is in the face of all actual facts on the ground, the least popular version of that we've seen in American history.

00:21:45.940 It's got to, the GOP has to connect better on the messaging, certainly, needs to persuade people that, needs to persuade people that there's a plan.

00:22:04.020 Probably the worst, the worst thing about the messaging on Iran, and this is being exacerbated by podcasters, is they're saying this is a betrayal of what Trump promised.

00:22:13.960 If you were listening to what Trump said, this should not be surprising at all.

00:22:19.140 But people are saying Trump said he'd never have a war again in the Middle East.

00:22:22.460 Trump said he doesn't want to go to war generally.

00:22:24.520 Trump said that, what, he was going to let Iran have a nuclear bomb?

00:22:27.540 No.

00:22:28.140 He never said any of that stuff.

00:22:30.200 He campaigned in 2016 on going in and destroying ISIS.

00:22:33.800 He campaigned this time around.

00:22:35.420 This time around, he campaigned specifically on backing an Israeli attack on Iran.

00:22:40.980 I don't mean to laugh at it.

00:22:42.580 As I told you, I would have argued against the Iran war. 0.59

00:22:45.680 Wait, don't tell me that he campaigned on something that he didn't.

00:22:52.440 We need coherence.

00:22:54.360 We need unity.

00:22:54.920 We need people to feel that everything's not so precarious.

00:22:58.460 Okay, speaking of violence and Muslims, the greatest CNN headline in the history of that cable news outlet has just come out. 0.98

00:23:09.900 It's about the Muslim attack on the former bar fight contestant, Walter Masterson in New York.

00:23:16.440 We'll get to that momentarily first, though.

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00:23:23.840 Right now in towns and cities across the country, women are being pushed to make life-changing decisions in moments of fear and confusion. 0.99

00:23:29.700 They're told you have to decide now, as if love, hope, or motherhood can be rushed.

00:23:33.960 Many of them feel trapped, and they really think there's no choice at all.

00:23:39.200 But because of people like you, there is.

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00:23:57.860 It doubles the baby's chance of life.

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00:24:34.220 Make an impact on generations to come.

00:24:36.320 If you're driving, pull over.

00:24:37.840 If you're standing up, sit down. 0.98

00:24:39.080 This is CNN describing the Muslim terrorists, the male Muslim terrorists who showed up to a counter protest in New York City. 0.96

00:24:54.060 As a lib was yelling about how everyone's welcome here and we need more Islam, this guy leaps over, throws a bomb, then pledges allegiance to ISIS and shouts Allahu Akbar. 0.95

00:25:05.320 And this is how CNN described it.

00:25:08.480 Two Pennsylvania teenagers.

00:25:11.920 I can't even get through the first three words without laughing.

00:25:14.700 Two Pennsylvania teenagers crossed into New York City Saturday morning for what could have been a normal day enjoying the city during abnormally warm weather.

00:25:21.640 But in less than an hour, their lives would drastically change as the pair would be arrested for throwing homemade bombs.

00:25:33.520 Pennsylvania teenagers.

00:25:34.500 Now, when you see the picture, if you're just listening to this, you can't see the picture right now.

00:25:38.860 If you're watching, you can see the Pennsylvania teenager.

00:25:42.800 My grandparents grew up in Pennsylvania.

00:25:44.660 They grew up outside of Scranton.

00:25:45.740 When I close my eyes and I think of Pennsylvania teenagers, then, in the 1940s or now, I don't picture Abdul, Abdul, Abdul, Jihad, Muhammad.

00:26:00.380 I don't picture.

00:26:01.100 That's not what I think.

00:26:01.980 Wait, close your eyes.

00:26:02.900 Hey, picture a Pennsylvania teenager. 0.99

00:26:05.300 I don't picture a big, hairy Muslim guy with a beard throwing an IED. 0.99

00:26:09.120 I don't. 0.99

00:26:10.280 Maybe I'm prejudiced.

00:26:11.400 I don't know.

00:26:11.800 In any case, that's the image that CNN calls to mind.

00:26:16.380 They talk about how they could have just gone in for a normal day enjoying the city, you know.

00:26:19.640 Maybe they could have stopped by the Met, gone down to Chinatown, had some dumplings, taken the Staten Island Ferry, gotten a good look at the Statue of Liberty.

00:26:29.160 You know, it'd be a nice day for those Pennsylvania teenagers.

00:26:31.960 But their lives changed because they were arrested because they made bombs at home and then threw them while pledging allegiance to ISIS.

00:26:42.800 Boys will be boys, huh?

00:26:45.360 Boys will be boys, CNN.

00:26:47.460 Do you know, that was so bad.

00:26:50.080 That headline was so bad, CNN had to take it down.

00:26:53.320 Because they realized, they were just getting so dragged on social media, they had to take it down.

00:26:57.340 The reason I bring it up, one, it's delightful and amusing.

00:27:00.260 But two, that's every headline.

00:27:05.240 That's actually every story from the establishment media.

00:27:10.780 It's so egregious. 0.98

00:27:12.380 It's so ridiculous. 1.00

00:27:13.560 It's so silly. 0.99

00:27:14.700 They went just a little bit too far. 0.98

00:27:16.720 And so you can see it for what it is, which is just pure deception.

00:27:19.920 Usually, they dial it back 10%.

00:27:24.880 And so it's not as brazen.

00:27:27.320 It's not as obvious.

00:27:28.180 But it's the same thing.

00:27:29.380 That's how they treat every story.

00:27:32.340 Very bad stuff.

00:27:34.140 Very bad stuff from Pennsylvania teenagers and from American journalists. 0.98

00:27:40.420 I don't know.

00:27:40.780 Which is worse?

00:27:41.740 I don't know.

00:27:42.060 Speaking of room for improvement, Tim Ferriss is apparently one of the great self-help gurus of our age.

00:27:52.180 I don't know much about him.

00:27:53.240 I've heard the name Tim Ferriss before.

00:27:55.160 I avoid all self-help, as should be clear to you.

00:27:59.340 You can read that however you like.

00:28:01.340 But I don't like self-help literature.

00:28:04.040 I smell that as a scam from 100 miles away.

00:28:08.600 I want to improve myself.

00:28:09.960 I want to improve.

00:28:12.600 But the self-help stuff, when I was a teenager, I read a little bit of it.

00:28:18.340 48 Laws of Power by Robert Greene.

00:28:20.460 You remember that one?

00:28:21.360 Or what was the really famous one?

00:28:22.940 How to Win Friends and Influence People by Dale Carnegie.

00:28:26.220 I'll tell you, by the way, if you ever want to read it, that's really the classic of self-help.

00:28:30.480 And as I remember it, I haven't read it in many years.

00:28:33.120 All it boils down to is be nice to people and remember their names.

00:28:36.260 That's it.

00:28:36.660 I just saved you $10 on Amazon.

00:28:38.020 And I guess that's good advice.

00:28:40.280 But a lot of the self-help stuff, I think, is pretty noxious.

00:28:42.440 I've thought this for years.

00:28:43.600 And Tim Ferriss agrees.

00:28:46.380 Tim Ferriss seems to have had a road to Damascus moment.

00:28:52.420 Not necessarily with a religious conversion, but with a recognition that what he was doing might be wrong.

00:28:56.340 According to The Telegraph, writing about this, it says,

00:29:00.280 Now, as Tim Ferriss approaches the halfway point of his life, Ferriss may be confronting his most profound insight yet.

00:29:07.060 In his latest blog post, The Self-Help Trap, what 20-plus years of optimizing has taught me.

00:29:12.500 Optimizing.

00:29:13.000 That's one of the words they all use.

00:29:14.460 Ferriss, now 48, asks whether his own industry might, with some important caveats, be making desperate people worse rather than better.

00:29:24.060 Quote,

00:29:24.380 The older I get, the more I think that self-help can be a trap.

00:29:27.700 Sometimes the cure is worse than the disease.

00:29:29.980 I say this after around 20 years of writing self-help and a lifetime of consuming it.

00:29:34.240 This is a 3,000-word blog post.

00:29:36.380 What if self-help itself is actually creating or amplifying unhappiness?

00:29:42.580 Modern self-help contains an inbuilt flaw.

00:29:46.140 To continually improve yourself, you must continually locate the ways you are broken.

00:29:52.120 Okay.

00:29:52.840 Okay.

00:29:55.280 He gets so close.

00:29:56.920 I love so much of what he's saying.

00:29:58.860 And then he totally misses the point.

00:30:01.600 The point just goes right over his head.

00:30:03.340 But he gets very close.

00:30:05.880 And so I give him credit for the introspection.

00:30:08.300 Some people are reading this cynically as him just doing a new kind of self-help.

00:30:11.940 Has self-help ruined your life?

00:30:13.220 Well, read my new book, Ten Easy Steps to Get Over Self-Help.

00:30:15.820 Self-Help by Tim Ferriss.

00:30:17.420 No, maybe not.

00:30:18.200 I'll give him the benefit of the doubt.

00:30:19.280 I think maybe he's being sincere.

00:30:20.860 He's, you know, in the middle of his life's journey.

00:30:22.860 He's had this realization.

00:30:24.740 He says, I think self-help can be a trap.

00:30:26.600 That's true.

00:30:27.180 The people who are most obsessed with self-help, in my experience, are the most messed up, depressed people.

00:30:33.100 And you might say, well, yeah, they're messed up.

00:30:34.740 They're trying to get help.

00:30:35.360 Well, it ain't working.

00:30:36.740 You know, it's like your friend or relative who's been going to the therapist.

00:30:41.200 Usually just means drug dealer.

00:30:42.600 But, you know, the psychiatrist for 30 years.

00:30:46.620 They never get any better.

00:30:48.800 And maybe they get more dope, but they don't ever get any better.

00:30:52.300 And you say, hey, you know, have you thought about trying something different?

00:30:54.600 You say, oh, I couldn't.

00:30:55.440 I'm so messed up.

00:30:56.140 Could you imagine if I lost my psychiatrist?

00:30:58.120 Maybe you're, ah, hold on.

00:30:59.380 Maybe you're getting that backwards.

00:31:00.260 Maybe your psychiatrist is actually not helping, maybe even compounding the problem.

00:31:03.420 I think that's what happens with self-help.

00:31:04.960 But not because of the reason Tim Ferriss says.

00:31:09.040 Tim Ferriss says self-help has this inbuilt flaw, which is that to continually improve yourself, you must continually locate the ways you are broken.

00:31:15.540 That's not the problem.

00:31:16.380 You know what else impels you to continually reflect on the ways in which you're broken?

00:31:23.040 Christianity does that.

00:31:24.800 When you examine your conscience and especially when you go and confess your sins to a priest.

00:31:28.880 You have to sit down and think of the number and kind of all of the ways that you are broken.

00:31:36.780 The problem with self-help is that it doesn't do that.

00:31:41.840 The whole premise of self-help actually is a denial of the fundamental ways in which we are broken.

00:31:49.680 Because self-help at its root, I think, denies original sin.

00:31:56.300 The whole point is that you really can help yourself.

00:31:58.560 And not just help yourself a little bit.

00:32:00.640 You can save yourself.

00:32:02.240 You can optimize your life.

00:32:04.920 And you can't.

00:32:06.200 Ultimately, you can't.

00:32:07.520 You can exercise.

00:32:09.100 You can work out.

00:32:09.620 You can practice certain habits of virtue.

00:32:11.100 But ultimately, you can't save yourself.

00:32:14.200 This is what the church formally declared when it condemned the heresy of Pelagius.

00:32:21.220 The problem with self-help is that it misses out on the best way that you can help yourself,

00:32:26.420 which is looking to someone beyond yourself.

00:32:29.100 And not looking to Tim Ferriss.

00:32:31.300 And not looking to, I don't know, who are the other guys?

00:32:34.280 Dale Carnegie.

00:32:35.940 But looking to someone who is greater than you.

00:32:39.860 Who is so far beyond humanity and yet who mysteriously takes on humanity.

00:32:49.460 And so understands us intimately.

00:32:53.700 Not only who created us, but who has lived as one of us.

00:32:56.940 Who is like us and always accepts sin.

00:32:59.700 That's what it's about.

00:33:00.660 But just as liberalism is a perversion, it's kind of a spinoff of Christianity that tries 0.98

00:33:09.560 to keep all the fun parts of Christianity without any of the obligations and the duties 1.00

00:33:14.040 and the limits.

00:33:15.380 It's the same thing with self-help.

00:33:16.960 But the self-help literature, I've read some of it, it spins out of Christianity.

00:33:24.320 And it just, it takes away all the limits and all the essential stuff and all the parts

00:33:27.480 that acknowledge that, not just that you're broken, but you're so broken that there is

00:33:36.080 essentially nothing you can do without grace.

00:33:38.780 So if you want to read some self-help literature, a good writer on this would be St. Thomas Aquinas,

00:33:43.020 first time he's coming up in this show, who points out that without grace, every human

00:33:51.620 being will fall into mortal sin.

00:33:53.660 And even if you're in a state of grace, you'll still fall into venial sin.

00:33:56.920 That's how broken we are.

00:33:58.940 He's close.

00:33:59.500 We got to help Tim Ferriss.

00:34:02.560 It'd be great.

00:34:02.960 Wouldn't that be great if one of the big proponents of self-help actually turned people 0.96

00:34:06.760 on to real help?

00:34:07.460 Okay, speaking of self-help and self-harm, the Epstein story just got even weirder.

00:34:17.240 Breaking news.

00:34:18.160 Stop the presses.

00:34:18.940 The prison guard who was supposed to be on watch when Jeffrey Epstein was killed, when

00:34:23.800 he died, it turns out that prison guard lied and is getting all these months and years

00:34:28.820 later is getting caught in all these lies.

00:34:31.180 If you don't have the Daily Wire Plus app, you got to get it.

00:34:34.400 You have to get it because I want to beat Ben and Matt and Drew in the subscriptions to

00:34:41.280 the Daily Wire Plus app.

00:34:42.460 That's actually the main reason.

00:34:44.340 I want more people to click on my smiling little mug there and I want to mog all of them with

00:34:49.640 my subscriptions.

00:34:50.840 On top of that, it's the best way to watch shows and that's how you get the video version

00:34:55.320 of Morning Wire to say nothing of all my extra content.

00:34:58.180 So head on over, download the app to your phone.

00:34:59.980 Your Android, your Apple TV, your Roku, your Samsung, your Doom Atari controller that is

00:35:06.980 being played by stem cells derived from neonatal foreskins.

00:35:11.240 Whatever computing devices you use, get the Daily Wire Plus apps today.

00:35:15.620 I couldn't pick just one comment yesterday.

00:35:17.820 You did not disappoint in my episode about how scientists have taught neonatal foreskin to 0.55

00:35:30.520 play Doom, to play a video game.

00:35:33.140 You didn't disappoint.

00:35:34.360 From the Drummer's Workshop, Drummer's Music says, what console did the scientists use that

00:35:39.080 experiment, use for that experiment?

00:35:41.620 Skintendo?

00:35:42.220 And Adam Howard 4775 says, we teach foreskins to play Doom, not because it is easy, but

00:35:52.480 because it is hard.

00:35:57.740 I love that because that's really a double pun.

00:36:00.800 That's a pun that plays on two levels.

00:36:03.900 One, you know, you just, you get in there and it's kind of funny.

00:36:06.820 We go to the moon, not because it is easy.

00:36:09.120 Now, we used to go to the moon.

00:36:10.100 Now, we just teach baby foreskin to play video games. 0.84

00:36:13.200 That's our great scientific achievement.

00:36:15.660 Hey, guys, we did it.

00:36:18.080 If Kennedy came back to Earth, he would say, hold on.

00:36:20.600 Can we get Lee Harvey Oswald back here?

00:36:22.240 I'm done.

00:36:22.900 I'm good.

00:36:23.320 I don't need to come back.

00:36:25.000 So, there's that level.

00:36:26.340 But then also, of course, not because it's easy, but because it's hard.

00:36:31.940 Because it's hard.

00:36:32.560 Anyway, I don't need to explain.

00:36:33.620 They always say the best way to enjoy a joke is to explain it ad nauseum.

00:36:36.940 Okay, so speaking of lurid things that appeal to the prurian interest, Jeffrey Epstein, he died, you may have heard.

00:36:48.380 And some people say he killed himself.

00:36:50.400 Others say that he was killed.

00:36:52.660 The FBI has come out, even recently, and said that they've gone through all the files, and he definitely killed himself, and case closed.

00:37:01.560 And yet, we're still getting new information.

00:37:04.720 So, here's the latest.

00:37:05.960 The New York Post first reported this.

00:37:07.660 It's based on FBI reports.

00:37:08.920 The FBI says that Tova Noel, Noel or Noel, whatever.

00:37:15.760 Tova Noel was one of the guards at the Manhattan Correctional Facility on duty when Jeffrey Epstein died.

00:37:24.280 And she says she was on her computer.

00:37:26.340 She was shopping online and searching the internet, right, right around the time he died.

00:37:30.420 And she was specifically searching for information about him.

00:37:35.120 She was searching for updates about Jeffrey Epstein.

00:37:38.440 Where's the exact line?

00:37:40.300 Yeah.

00:37:40.800 One of the searches was, quote, latest on Epstein in jail.

00:37:46.720 This is as Epstein is dying, or shortly before or shortly thereafter.

00:37:51.100 So, in these FBI files, this woman, Tova Noel, is now found to have brought Epstein linen, or intimate clothing, around 10.40 p.m.

00:38:06.900 That's the last time any member of the staff in the jail interacted with him.

00:38:10.060 However, this corrections officer had previously testified that the last time she saw Epstein was 10 p.m., and that she never gave out linen because that was another correction officer's job.

00:38:22.460 So, now we got this corrections officer in a massive lie.

00:38:25.680 She saw Epstein later than she said she did, and she brought him linens with which he could have hung himself, hanged himself, when she said that she didn't do that.

00:38:35.080 Okay.

00:38:35.520 Then, she searches for the latest on Epstein in jail twice the morning that he was discovered, once at 5.42 a.m., and again at 5.52 a.m., and then she falsified prison records, all allegedly.

00:38:51.020 You know, she was arrested for this, but then let go, dropped the charges. 0.91

00:38:53.760 And then, Chase Bank independently flagged this corrections officer to the FBI because of suspicious cash deposits that were going on in her account, starting way back in April 2018, with the largest deposit being $5,000 on July 30th, just days before Epstein was found dead.

00:39:14.800 So, you know, it doesn't look great for her.

00:39:19.040 The only question left is, did he pay her, or did one of his associates pay her to get him the linens with which he could kill himself, or did one of Epstein's enemies pay her to look the other way while he was murdered?

00:39:35.700 There is a world, you know, I hate to say, I know this is an unpopular take, but there is a world in which he killed himself.

00:39:43.740 There's no world in which he just killed himself.

00:39:47.300 He was certainly aided in killing himself if he actually killed himself, or someone came in and murdered him, or at this point, the guy could still be alive.

00:39:58.320 I don't actually think he's still alive, but we've been lied to about every single aspect of this case that, I don't know, I'd give it a less than 1% chance, but, like, maybe.

00:40:15.240 In any case, it seems like we should look into this woman, right? 0.90

00:40:19.300 It seems like there should be another investigation of this woman or not.

00:40:23.580 Or not, or maybe there won't be.

00:40:25.260 And do you know why there won't be?

00:40:26.200 Because I hate to say I told you so, and you know how much I hate to say it.

00:40:30.680 But what have I said?

00:40:32.720 I have been so consistent, and I've been so right.

00:40:37.180 And they hated me because I was so consistent and so right on this.

00:40:40.800 I said from the beginning, I said, either Jeffrey Epstein is who they say he is. 0.68

00:40:46.580 He's just a rich guy with some sexual perversions, in which case, we know everything there is to know about him.

00:40:53.300 Or he's not just that. 0.98

00:40:57.340 Or he's something else.

00:40:59.080 He's something closer to what the theories about him say.

00:41:02.440 In which case, we already know everything we're going to know about this guy.

00:41:06.420 And there were other people who came out there and they told you, no, we're going to get to the bottom of this.

00:41:12.560 We're going to get the information.

00:41:14.600 This is it.

00:41:15.520 Charlie Brown, this time you can really kick the football.

00:41:18.200 No, we got it.

00:41:20.220 It's Mueller time.

00:41:21.440 The walls are closing in.

00:41:23.060 It's happening.

00:41:23.380 I don't know if those people, those live streamers, those podcasters, I don't know if they were lying to you or they just don't get it.

00:41:30.660 Either way, there's not going to be an investigation into this corrections officer.

00:41:35.140 There's not another one.

00:41:36.560 And you're not going to find out?

00:41:38.060 I kind of wish we would find out.

00:41:40.500 But we won't.

00:41:42.440 We just won't.

00:41:45.580 Sorry.

00:41:45.940 Sorry, I was right.

00:41:48.240 Sorry, I was right.

00:41:49.200 I shouldn't be so smug about being right because it's truly scandalous that anomalies like this keep cropping up even years later.

00:41:57.360 It's how it goes.

00:41:58.540 It's how it goes with all governments, all states, and especially the global hegemon.

00:42:03.100 It's just how it is.

00:42:05.060 Now, this is what I was saying about the Iran war.

00:42:08.000 Some of these people who say, well, I thought we weren't going to get involved in any wars ever again.

00:42:11.280 You know we're the global hegemon, right?

00:42:13.100 You know we're not even if we were just a country.

00:42:17.060 You think we're not going to get involved in wars ever again?

00:42:19.820 Do you know what statecraft is?

00:42:21.660 And we're the global hegemon.

00:42:22.960 What are we doing in the Middle East?

00:42:24.020 What are we, the global hegemon, doing in the Middle East?

00:42:25.580 I don't know.

00:42:26.140 Running the world like we have been doing for 80 years?

00:42:29.980 I'm not saying that's awesome.

00:42:32.380 I mean, in many ways it is awesome.

00:42:33.620 But I'm not.

00:42:34.000 It's just that's how it is, man.

00:42:37.440 And to bring us all the way back to the top of our show,

00:42:39.580 there is such a disconnect right now between reality and perception.

00:42:46.320 Think about even how it's playing out on the right.

00:42:48.060 We always talk about the conservative civil war.

00:42:50.180 There is no civil war going on in the actual political order among the elected politicians,

00:42:55.320 the people who write the regulations, who run the government.

00:42:57.980 There is no civil war.

00:42:59.220 Any more than there any usually is.

00:43:01.860 Actually, the Republican Party in terms of the elected people

00:43:03.940 is as unified as it's ever been in my lifetime.

00:43:06.380 The civil war is entirely a metapolitical phenomenon

00:43:09.420 being pushed by podcasters about totally extraneous and usually fictional things.

00:43:16.860 Even the personal petty grievances that are being litigated there,

00:43:20.780 they're not even really with the politicians usually.

00:43:22.720 It's just with other podcasters.

00:43:24.760 There is such a chasm between the real political order

00:43:28.540 and perception and commentary and punditry.

00:43:33.040 I mean, this is why people keep talking about Jean Baudrillard and hyper-reality.

00:43:37.680 There's just a big gap here.

00:43:40.280 But in representative government, perception can become reality.

00:43:44.000 And that's the wall that Republicans are running into right now.

00:43:47.920 A little over six months to go, not a lot of time to turn things around.

00:43:50.940 Okay, much, much more to say.

00:43:52.940 But I got to go hang out with Congress.

00:43:56.580 Speaking of, I'll probably have a really chipper speech to give them after this analysis.

00:44:04.700 Time is running out.

00:44:06.380 On that happy note, I'm Michael Knowles.

00:44:07.640 This is The Michael Knowles Show.

00:44:08.380 See you tomorrow.

00:44:08.720 We'll be right back.

The Michael Knowles Show - March 11, 2026

Ep. 1929 - Iran： The Least Popular War Ever Launched

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