Ep. 1929 - Iran： The Least Popular War Ever Launched
Episode Stats
Words per Minute
166.61937
Summary
The Iran War is officially the least popular war ever to launch in American history. Less popular than 9/11, less popular than Vietnam, and even less than Libya, which was a disaster from the very beginning. Will President Trump change course? Will the midterms even matter?
Transcript
00:00:00.000
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Feel the aero bubbles melt. It's mind bubbling.
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The Iran War is officially the least popular war ever to launch in American history.
00:00:22.140
Less popular than Iraq, less popular than Vietnam, less popular than Libya,
00:00:32.540
Will he instead change public opinion by the midterms?
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I'm Michael Knowles. This is The Michael Knowles Show.
00:01:01.760
Tim Ferriss, one of the most popular self-help gurus in the world, has just come out and suggested something that I have been saying for many, many years,
00:01:10.840
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Really bad news on the perception of the Iran war.
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I have to distinguish here between the actual Iran war, like the boom-boom going on in the Middle East
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that President Trump is waging with the Israelis, and the perception of the Iran war.
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The Iran war is, by the standards of war, going pretty well.
00:03:06.960
The United States military has achieved all of its objectives faster than we were told they were going to,
00:03:15.480
Even some of the downstream effects of the war, like the price of oil shooting through the roof,
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There's still some debate over what exactly is going on in the Strait of War moves.
00:03:24.500
But all things considered, we're killing the people that we set out to kill,
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and we're giving space for the political movements that we sought to support,
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and we're deterring the enemies like Russia and China.
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So all things considered, it's going pretty well.
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The New York Times, I know, I know, a big grain of salt.
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The New York Times has just come out with some polls on this,
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or with a poll showing the popularity of the war,
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but other outlets are bringing out polls too, and it's not all that different.
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97% of Americans supported World War II when we entered.
00:04:11.320
Not a huge surprise there because we'd been attacked by Japan,
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Iraq was controversial from the very beginning,
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Now it's considered one of the least popular wars we've ever waged.
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That was this kind of humanitarian war of choice
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And there, truly, there were basically no American interests implicated,
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and actually, it does advance America's grand strategic interests,
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and actually, this has been a priority of US foreign policy for 47 years,
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So, everybody is hoping that the war ends quickly, of course.
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But there are two ways to read this from the White House's perspective.
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Either the White House just listened to the wrong people,
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look, we're going to make it through this, you know, unpopularity for a little bit,
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but I'm going to be so successful that I'm going to change public opinion on this
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Or there is a third possibility that I haven't heard people really talk about,
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which is that the president has just written the midterms off.
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speaking to members of Congress about the midterms.
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that's what happens in the off year after a major presidential election,
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especially a presidential election in which your party wins unified government.
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The question is just how bad are the losses going to be?
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Are the losses going to be we lose a seat or two in the House?
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Or are the losses going to be Antichrist James Tallarico becomes the senator from Texas?
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But we have a razor-thin majority in the House.
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And so there is a rationale here for President Trump to say,
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On some of it, that's connecting in public perception.
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And so if we are going to lose the midterms anyway,
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you only have to lose a seat or two to lose the House of Representatives,
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at which point the Democrats are going to get subpoena power,
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at which point they're probably going to impeach me again,
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I'm the only one of two presidents in American history to win a non-consecutive second term.
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I might as well make big moves while I still have the government.
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then I might as well take out the enemy leader of Venezuela,
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who has a warrant for his arrest down in the United States.
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We've been trying to take out this regime for 25 years.
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Maybe I'll just do it because it's the right thing to do.
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I did what George Bush couldn't do with Chavez,
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what Obama couldn't do, what Biden couldn't do.
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The Iranian regime, we've been trying to get rid of this regime since 1979.
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And really, we've been trying to maintain a pro-Western regime there since 1953.
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Now, we have been trying to turn around American decline for the past quarter century.
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Even Russia, to some degree, has been on the move in the world.
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and then they started marching in through parts of Eastern Europe.
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In any case, there is a way to marry all of these objectives.
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And the way to marry it is, or the way to marry them is, the war has to end quickly.
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Now, President Trump has said it's a five-week war.
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Famous last words, but Trump has a lot of credibility in foreign policy.
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And he's already achieving his objectives faster even than he had predicted.
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So, it could be the case that he just turns public opinion around here.
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the stakes here are even higher for President Trump than we, I think, previously appreciated.
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Had I been on the National Security Council, I would have made arguments against this war in Iran.
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Not because I'm a pacifist, not because of some ideological reason, but just because of the practical, prudential realities.
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Trump comes in, and he says, no, we're going to go into Iran.
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I think he went in because he felt he could do it.
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The effectiveness with which he could wage the war was also high.
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Now, the stakes are even higher because he has to turn public opinion around in an historic way.
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Before the midterms, which are in a little over six months.
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It's a tall order for the greatest politicians in history.
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And even people who are sympathetic to Trump are really fretting.
00:11:06.720
Joe Rogan cozying up to Trump was one of the factors that really shifted momentum in President Trump's favor, I think.
00:11:15.720
Joe Rogan is openly worrying that this could be the beginning of World War III.
00:11:21.060
Yeah, I mean, it's just such a, I mean, the whole, the whole situation internationally has been so tense already.
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With what's going on in Gaza, with what's going on in Ukraine.
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It's like, and to add this to the pile, it's like, I mean, it genuinely feels like there's a real possibility that we might be entering World War III.
00:11:52.820
Well, I never expected Iran to start attacking, you know, they launched bombs into UAE, Dubai.
00:12:03.260
Joe Rogan worrying that we're on the brink of World War III.
00:12:08.340
People were saying we were on the brink of World War III with the Fordo strikes over the summer.
00:12:14.100
People were saying we were on the brink of World War III with Venezuela.
00:12:20.780
And the regime that Trump has installed, or the person from within the existing regime that Trump has allowed to remain in her role, is doing well and is cooperating with us.
00:12:35.040
I realize the stakes of this Iran war are a little bit higher.
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But Joe Rogan, I've said for years, one of the great values of Joe Rogan is that he is the median voter.
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And on this issue, he's where the people are on the Iran war.
00:13:13.340
I can explain the apparent surprise that seems to have overtaken the White House and some of the Republican prognosticators.
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I conducted a highly scientific Twitter poll months and months, six months ago, more.
00:15:07.100
And then, immediately underneath, I said, should the U.S. allow Iran to develop nuclear weapons?
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80% or 90%, almost the exact same number said no.
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People could say, well, Iran wasn't that close to a nuclear weapon.
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No serious person thinks they weren't pursuing it.
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They were openly pursuing a nuclear program, and they were obviously pursuing nuclear bombs.
00:15:37.260
So, you have the American people are overwhelmingly telling you that they want two things that are directly in conflict with each other.
00:15:50.300
The majority of Americans today want mass deportations.
00:15:54.280
Mass deportations remain a popular, mainstream political issue.
00:16:01.660
Most Americans want ICE to stop deporting so many people.
00:16:09.460
Did you guys read the first question before you answered the second question?
00:16:13.360
The two things that most Americans want are directly in conflict with each other.
00:16:17.300
We want more deportations, but we want the people who are doing the deporting to stop deporting so many people.
00:16:27.460
That's what a lot of the sneering, condescending, political analyst podcast class is going to conclude, that the people are stupid.
00:16:38.240
I think that what people are expressing is they feel that their situation is precarious.
00:16:48.080
They are, even more than usual, desirous of safety.
00:16:51.940
And they feel that even the winds right now are precarious.
00:16:56.080
It's the only way to explain how Republicans and Democrats are tied on the economy.
00:17:01.620
Trump has objectively succeeded at every level in the economy.
00:17:21.180
It could always use some improvement, but it's doing very, very well.
00:17:31.840
100% of the rental demand increase in recent years was driven by illegal immigration when you look at California and New York.
00:17:39.620
60% was driven by illegal immigration nationwide.
00:17:44.540
Trump is objectively doing well in the economy.
00:17:46.460
How on earth, after Democrats blew the economy, how could Republicans and Democrats statistically be tied right now?
00:17:52.880
Right now, the polling says, I think, 32% support Trump in the economy, 31% support Democrats, and the rest don't trust either.
00:18:05.660
Because they feel, even if the economy is doing relatively well right now, they feel it's precarious.
00:18:13.360
Why do they support the mass depredations and oppose ICE?
00:18:18.340
Because they recognize that the illegal aliens pose a threat to their safety.
00:18:27.600
But they also recognize that the lunatics marching through the streets and rioting and protesting and chasing ICE is also a threat to their safety.
00:18:33.860
They realize that when ICE comes in and does these big raids, then the libs come out of the woodwork and they terrorize the cities for weeks and weeks and don't want that either.
00:18:46.440
What they want is a return to a peaceable kind of time.
00:18:51.640
They don't want Iran to have a nuclear weapon because that's a threat to their safety.
00:18:53.880
They also don't want war in Iran because that is a threat to safety generally and maybe to their safety in particular.
00:19:00.820
And I think what Trump has to do is just reassure people that daddy's in control.
00:19:07.720
You know, sometimes daddy leaves for a work trip.
00:19:22.080
And sometimes I think the analogy works because Trump actually campaigned on daddy's home in 2024.
00:19:28.820
OK, and sometimes daddy's got to come home and say, hey, hey, hey, it's OK.
00:19:45.600
That's that's what Trump has to reassure people of.
00:19:47.700
The fastest way to do that right now is to win the Iran war, achieve serious long term American military objectives in the time within the time span that Trump gave us, which is five weeks.
00:20:23.440
Not only is your portfolio doing well today, it's going to be doing well in in a month, in six months.
00:20:31.920
That's a top five issue that the Democrats are beating Republicans on.
00:20:34.160
They're always beating Republicans on it because they lie about health care.
00:20:37.080
Their plans are terrible, but they sound more persuasive than the Republicans do.
00:20:40.700
It's another issue, just kind of like the Iran war, kind of like the deportations, where the reality is by and large pretty good for the Republicans, but the perception is much better for Democrats.
00:20:54.340
You say, you know, speaking of those illegals, they're really jacking up the health care costs, aren't they?
00:21:01.460
They're using federally funded programs that go to the states for it.
00:21:16.680
Right now, the Republicans are falling into all sorts of fractious infighting and disunity.
00:21:25.540
To the point, division, I guess you would say, not disunity.
00:21:27.720
And to the point that Trump's current activity, his most prominent initiative right now, is in the face of all actual facts on the ground, the least popular version of that we've seen in American history.
00:21:45.940
It's got to, the GOP has to connect better on the messaging, certainly, needs to persuade people that, needs to persuade people that there's a plan.
00:22:04.020
Probably the worst, the worst thing about the messaging on Iran, and this is being exacerbated by podcasters, is they're saying this is a betrayal of what Trump promised.
00:22:13.960
If you were listening to what Trump said, this should not be surprising at all.
00:22:19.140
But people are saying Trump said he'd never have a war again in the Middle East.
00:22:22.460
Trump said he doesn't want to go to war generally.
00:22:24.520
Trump said that, what, he was going to let Iran have a nuclear bomb?
00:22:30.200
He campaigned in 2016 on going in and destroying ISIS.
00:22:35.420
This time around, he campaigned specifically on backing an Israeli attack on Iran.
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As I told you, I would have argued against the Iran war.
00:22:45.680
Wait, don't tell me that he campaigned on something that he didn't.
00:22:54.920
We need people to feel that everything's not so precarious.
00:22:58.460
Okay, speaking of violence and Muslims, the greatest CNN headline in the history of that cable news outlet has just come out.
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It's about the Muslim attack on the former bar fight contestant, Walter Masterson in New York.
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This is CNN describing the Muslim terrorists, the male Muslim terrorists who showed up to a counter protest in New York City.
00:24:54.060
As a lib was yelling about how everyone's welcome here and we need more Islam, this guy leaps over, throws a bomb, then pledges allegiance to ISIS and shouts Allahu Akbar.
00:25:11.920
I can't even get through the first three words without laughing.
00:25:14.700
Two Pennsylvania teenagers crossed into New York City Saturday morning for what could have been a normal day enjoying the city during abnormally warm weather.
00:25:21.640
But in less than an hour, their lives would drastically change as the pair would be arrested for throwing homemade bombs.
00:25:34.500
Now, when you see the picture, if you're just listening to this, you can't see the picture right now.
00:25:38.860
If you're watching, you can see the Pennsylvania teenager.
00:25:45.740
When I close my eyes and I think of Pennsylvania teenagers, then, in the 1940s or now, I don't picture Abdul, Abdul, Abdul, Jihad, Muhammad.
00:26:05.300
I don't picture a big, hairy Muslim guy with a beard throwing an IED.
00:26:11.800
In any case, that's the image that CNN calls to mind.
00:26:16.380
They talk about how they could have just gone in for a normal day enjoying the city, you know.
00:26:19.640
Maybe they could have stopped by the Met, gone down to Chinatown, had some dumplings, taken the Staten Island Ferry, gotten a good look at the Statue of Liberty.
00:26:29.160
You know, it'd be a nice day for those Pennsylvania teenagers.
00:26:31.960
But their lives changed because they were arrested because they made bombs at home and then threw them while pledging allegiance to ISIS.
00:26:50.080
That headline was so bad, CNN had to take it down.
00:26:53.320
Because they realized, they were just getting so dragged on social media, they had to take it down.
00:26:57.340
The reason I bring it up, one, it's delightful and amusing.
00:27:05.240
That's actually every story from the establishment media.
00:27:16.720
And so you can see it for what it is, which is just pure deception.
00:27:34.140
Very bad stuff from Pennsylvania teenagers and from American journalists.
00:27:42.060
Speaking of room for improvement, Tim Ferriss is apparently one of the great self-help gurus of our age.
00:27:55.160
I avoid all self-help, as should be clear to you.
00:28:12.600
But the self-help stuff, when I was a teenager, I read a little bit of it.
00:28:22.940
How to Win Friends and Influence People by Dale Carnegie.
00:28:26.220
I'll tell you, by the way, if you ever want to read it, that's really the classic of self-help.
00:28:30.480
And as I remember it, I haven't read it in many years.
00:28:33.120
All it boils down to is be nice to people and remember their names.
00:28:40.280
But a lot of the self-help stuff, I think, is pretty noxious.
00:28:46.380
Tim Ferriss seems to have had a road to Damascus moment.
00:28:52.420
Not necessarily with a religious conversion, but with a recognition that what he was doing might be wrong.
00:28:56.340
According to The Telegraph, writing about this, it says,
00:29:00.280
Now, as Tim Ferriss approaches the halfway point of his life, Ferriss may be confronting his most profound insight yet.
00:29:07.060
In his latest blog post, The Self-Help Trap, what 20-plus years of optimizing has taught me.
00:29:14.460
Ferriss, now 48, asks whether his own industry might, with some important caveats, be making desperate people worse rather than better.
00:29:24.380
The older I get, the more I think that self-help can be a trap.
00:29:29.980
I say this after around 20 years of writing self-help and a lifetime of consuming it.
00:29:36.380
What if self-help itself is actually creating or amplifying unhappiness?
00:29:46.140
To continually improve yourself, you must continually locate the ways you are broken.
00:30:05.880
And so I give him credit for the introspection.
00:30:08.300
Some people are reading this cynically as him just doing a new kind of self-help.
00:30:13.220
Well, read my new book, Ten Easy Steps to Get Over Self-Help.
00:30:20.860
He's, you know, in the middle of his life's journey.
00:30:27.180
The people who are most obsessed with self-help, in my experience, are the most messed up, depressed people.
00:30:33.100
And you might say, well, yeah, they're messed up.
00:30:36.740
You know, it's like your friend or relative who's been going to the therapist.
00:30:48.800
And maybe they get more dope, but they don't ever get any better.
00:30:52.300
And you say, hey, you know, have you thought about trying something different?
00:31:00.260
Maybe your psychiatrist is actually not helping, maybe even compounding the problem.
00:31:04.960
But not because of the reason Tim Ferriss says.
00:31:09.040
Tim Ferriss says self-help has this inbuilt flaw, which is that to continually improve yourself, you must continually locate the ways you are broken.
00:31:16.380
You know what else impels you to continually reflect on the ways in which you're broken?
00:31:24.800
When you examine your conscience and especially when you go and confess your sins to a priest.
00:31:28.880
You have to sit down and think of the number and kind of all of the ways that you are broken.
00:31:36.780
The problem with self-help is that it doesn't do that.
00:31:41.840
The whole premise of self-help actually is a denial of the fundamental ways in which we are broken.
00:31:49.680
Because self-help at its root, I think, denies original sin.
00:31:56.300
The whole point is that you really can help yourself.
00:32:14.200
This is what the church formally declared when it condemned the heresy of Pelagius.
00:32:21.220
The problem with self-help is that it misses out on the best way that you can help yourself,
00:32:31.300
And not looking to, I don't know, who are the other guys?
00:32:35.940
But looking to someone who is greater than you.
00:32:39.860
Who is so far beyond humanity and yet who mysteriously takes on humanity.
00:32:53.700
Not only who created us, but who has lived as one of us.
00:33:00.660
But just as liberalism is a perversion, it's kind of a spinoff of Christianity that tries
00:33:09.560
to keep all the fun parts of Christianity without any of the obligations and the duties
00:33:16.960
But the self-help literature, I've read some of it, it spins out of Christianity.
00:33:24.320
And it just, it takes away all the limits and all the essential stuff and all the parts
00:33:27.480
that acknowledge that, not just that you're broken, but you're so broken that there is
00:33:38.780
So if you want to read some self-help literature, a good writer on this would be St. Thomas Aquinas,
00:33:43.020
first time he's coming up in this show, who points out that without grace, every human
00:33:53.660
And even if you're in a state of grace, you'll still fall into venial sin.
00:34:02.960
Wouldn't that be great if one of the big proponents of self-help actually turned people
00:34:07.460
Okay, speaking of self-help and self-harm, the Epstein story just got even weirder.
00:34:18.940
The prison guard who was supposed to be on watch when Jeffrey Epstein was killed, when
00:34:23.800
he died, it turns out that prison guard lied and is getting all these months and years
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So head on over, download the app to your phone.
00:34:59.980
Your Android, your Apple TV, your Roku, your Samsung, your Doom Atari controller that is
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being played by stem cells derived from neonatal foreskins.
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Whatever computing devices you use, get the Daily Wire Plus apps today.
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You did not disappoint in my episode about how scientists have taught neonatal foreskin to
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From the Drummer's Workshop, Drummer's Music says, what console did the scientists use that
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And Adam Howard 4775 says, we teach foreskins to play Doom, not because it is easy, but
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I love that because that's really a double pun.
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One, you know, you just, you get in there and it's kind of funny.
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Now, we just teach baby foreskin to play video games.
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If Kennedy came back to Earth, he would say, hold on.
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But then also, of course, not because it's easy, but because it's hard.
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They always say the best way to enjoy a joke is to explain it ad nauseum.
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Okay, so speaking of lurid things that appeal to the prurian interest, Jeffrey Epstein, he died, you may have heard.
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The FBI has come out, even recently, and said that they've gone through all the files, and he definitely killed himself, and case closed.
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The FBI says that Tova Noel, Noel or Noel, whatever.
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Tova Noel was one of the guards at the Manhattan Correctional Facility on duty when Jeffrey Epstein died.
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She was shopping online and searching the internet, right, right around the time he died.
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And she was specifically searching for information about him.
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She was searching for updates about Jeffrey Epstein.
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One of the searches was, quote, latest on Epstein in jail.
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This is as Epstein is dying, or shortly before or shortly thereafter.
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So, in these FBI files, this woman, Tova Noel, is now found to have brought Epstein linen, or intimate clothing, around 10.40 p.m.
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That's the last time any member of the staff in the jail interacted with him.
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However, this corrections officer had previously testified that the last time she saw Epstein was 10 p.m., and that she never gave out linen because that was another correction officer's job.
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So, now we got this corrections officer in a massive lie.
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She saw Epstein later than she said she did, and she brought him linens with which he could have hung himself, hanged himself, when she said that she didn't do that.
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Then, she searches for the latest on Epstein in jail twice the morning that he was discovered, once at 5.42 a.m., and again at 5.52 a.m., and then she falsified prison records, all allegedly.
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You know, she was arrested for this, but then let go, dropped the charges.
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And then, Chase Bank independently flagged this corrections officer to the FBI because of suspicious cash deposits that were going on in her account, starting way back in April 2018, with the largest deposit being $5,000 on July 30th, just days before Epstein was found dead.
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The only question left is, did he pay her, or did one of his associates pay her to get him the linens with which he could kill himself, or did one of Epstein's enemies pay her to look the other way while he was murdered?
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There is a world, you know, I hate to say, I know this is an unpopular take, but there is a world in which he killed himself.
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There's no world in which he just killed himself.
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He was certainly aided in killing himself if he actually killed himself, or someone came in and murdered him, or at this point, the guy could still be alive.
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I don't actually think he's still alive, but we've been lied to about every single aspect of this case that, I don't know, I'd give it a less than 1% chance, but, like, maybe.
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In any case, it seems like we should look into this woman, right?
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It seems like there should be another investigation of this woman or not.
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Because I hate to say I told you so, and you know how much I hate to say it.
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I have been so consistent, and I've been so right.
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And they hated me because I was so consistent and so right on this.
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I said from the beginning, I said, either Jeffrey Epstein is who they say he is.
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He's just a rich guy with some sexual perversions, in which case, we know everything there is to know about him.
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He's something closer to what the theories about him say.
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In which case, we already know everything we're going to know about this guy.
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And there were other people who came out there and they told you, no, we're going to get to the bottom of this.
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Charlie Brown, this time you can really kick the football.
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I don't know if those people, those live streamers, those podcasters, I don't know if they were lying to you or they just don't get it.
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Either way, there's not going to be an investigation into this corrections officer.
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I shouldn't be so smug about being right because it's truly scandalous that anomalies like this keep cropping up even years later.
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It's how it goes with all governments, all states, and especially the global hegemon.
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Now, this is what I was saying about the Iran war.
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Some of these people who say, well, I thought we weren't going to get involved in any wars ever again.
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You know we're not even if we were just a country.
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You think we're not going to get involved in wars ever again?
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What are we, the global hegemon, doing in the Middle East?
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Running the world like we have been doing for 80 years?
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And to bring us all the way back to the top of our show,
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there is such a disconnect right now between reality and perception.
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Think about even how it's playing out on the right.
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We always talk about the conservative civil war.
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There is no civil war going on in the actual political order among the elected politicians,
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the people who write the regulations, who run the government.
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Actually, the Republican Party in terms of the elected people
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is as unified as it's ever been in my lifetime.
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The civil war is entirely a metapolitical phenomenon
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being pushed by podcasters about totally extraneous and usually fictional things.
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Even the personal petty grievances that are being litigated there,
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they're not even really with the politicians usually.
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There is such a chasm between the real political order
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I mean, this is why people keep talking about Jean Baudrillard and hyper-reality.
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But in representative government, perception can become reality.
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And that's the wall that Republicans are running into right now.
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A little over six months to go, not a lot of time to turn things around.
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Speaking of, I'll probably have a really chipper speech to give them after this analysis.