Support for Israel in the United States is in free fall, and it's all about religion. This week on The Michael Knowles Show, Michael talks about why, and why not why, support for the country s ally, Iran, is at an all-time low. Plus, a story about a woman who doesn't want to eat Good Ranchers while she's on the road.
00:06:26.040they're not totally distinct. There is overlap. There are areas where the United States and
00:06:30.500Israel's interests are aligned, but they're beginning to diverge. Looking at those numbers,
00:06:36.340I have to think if I were the prime minister of Israel, I would do everything that I could do0.99
00:06:42.240right now to take out the Iranian regime. We talk about the Iran problem as losing our ability to1.00
00:06:48.880stop their nuclear program. You know, time is running out. If we wait a day longer, then they're0.96
00:06:53.440going to reach a point of immunity such that our missiles can't hit them anymore, such that even
00:06:58.020if they don't have a nuclear weapon today, they're going to get one in a year because we're not able
00:07:01.780to stop the program. We talk about that. The window is closing. The same fact applies to Iran
00:07:09.520for the state of Israel. The window is closing because the United States is Israel's backer on0.83
00:07:14.000the international stage. The state of Israel doesn't really have that many friends internationally,
00:07:18.180and the United States is the global hegemon, so they're the ones who back Israel. Now, the U.S.0.85
00:07:23.060has an interest in stopping Iran's nuclear program. I know some people deny that Iran
00:07:27.640wants a nuclear weapon. I think that's ridiculous. Iran has been pretty open about wanting a nuclear0.72
00:07:31.040program for 50 years, a nuclear bomb. But the United States' interest here is in preventing0.82
00:07:38.720Iran from becoming a regional hegemon, from attacking Israel, which is an ally of the United0.91
00:07:43.460States, from destabilizing the world further because they have one foot in, one foot out of0.95
00:07:47.320the international order. It's a broader kind of threat. For the state of Israel, though,
00:07:52.280Iran is an existential threat. Iran is much more of a threat to the state of Israel than it is to0.93
00:07:56.600the United States. Certainly, much more of a threat imminently. And previously, the state0.99
00:08:02.660of Israel could have counted on bipartisan support and then, at the very least, overwhelming GOP
00:08:08.780support. Now, the last backers of Israel in the United States are gone and the trend lines are
00:08:16.320all in the wrong direction. So if I'm a rational actor as the prime minister of Israel, I need to
00:08:23.000go all in on this Iran war. The problem is the United States doesn't necessarily want to go
00:08:28.220all in on this Iran war. But for the state of Israel, it's kind of like the last chance.
00:08:34.900And now we're in the middle of the sixth week. Don't forget President Trump
00:08:37.960said that the operation would take four to six weeks. And so when everyone was freaking out and
00:08:43.700losing their heads over Trump. I said, look, I would have argued against the war. I did argue
00:08:47.440against the war on prudential grounds, but Trump has an excellent record on foreign policy. So
00:08:51.700I'll get concerned in week six. That's when I'm going to start getting concerned.
00:08:55.880I think many people, many normal people, maybe not in the media or the political class,
00:08:59.760many normal people had that same opinion. But now we're in week six. President Trump clearly
00:09:05.480wants an off-ramp here. Israel cannot take an off-ramp here. Even if the numbers for favorability
00:09:11.600were really good in the United States, Israel probably wouldn't want to take the offering,
00:09:15.540but now it's existential. So now you have this even thornier problem.
00:09:21.860Where does this war go? President Trump just provided an update. So the chief problem,
00:09:27.560the greatest leverage that Iran has right now is that they blocked the Strait of Hormuz. And there
00:09:31.300are some people who are trying to say, well, actually, this is 15 degree chess because actually
00:09:35.620what's going to happen now is the United States is just going to supply all the oil to the world.
00:09:39.260But that isn't going to happen. We don't have sufficient capacity to make up for the oil that's being lost, not going through the Strait of Hormuz. And oil is a global commodity, so the oil prices are being set globally. That means gas prices are going to go up in the United States, even if we start exporting a ton of oil.
00:09:56.400So we have to open the Strait of Hormuz, but we can't do so in a way that allows Iran to hold0.88
00:10:03.420this massive leverage whereby they can just close the strait whenever they want to.0.96
00:10:07.340If that is the case, we will have given them a more powerful political weapon
00:10:10.860than a nuclear bomb. Because the thing about a nuclear bomb is you can't really use it.
00:10:15.040You know, I mean, we've used the nuclear bomb when we invented it 80 years ago. But since then,
00:10:21.000happily, no one has used a nuclear weapon. So weirdly, the ability to close the Strait of
00:10:26.780Hormuz and to paralyze the global hegemon is a stronger weapon, even than a nuclear bomb.
00:10:34.120So President Trump has done something that I think is very wise here. He says, okay, well,
00:10:38.040I can't really get these guys to negotiate. They're not honest negotiators. I can't get
00:10:42.100them to give up their nuclear program. Okay, I'll tell you what I'll do. You're going to choke off
00:10:46.040the global oil supply and petrochemicals and fertilizer and all these other goods that pass
00:10:51.260through the Strait of Hormuz? You're going to try to squeeze the Gulf states? You're going to do0.94
00:10:54.400that, Iran? Okay. Well, I see your blockade and I raise you a blockade. So now I'm going to blockade1.00
00:11:00.120your blockade. So that's fine. All right. I guess the oil is not going through the strait, but guess
00:11:03.580what? Nothing's getting into a rat of Iran now either. What are you going to do about that?1.00
00:11:08.860Iran is threatening to keep firing on the United States. Iran is now threatening to block shipping
00:11:15.000from the Persian Gulf, the Sea of Oman, the Red Sea, if the U.S. continues the double blockade,
00:11:21.480such that now you have the crown prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman,
00:11:26.480who was, according to reports, advocating for the strikes on Iran. Now, according to the reports,
00:11:32.140Mohammed bin Salman says, hey, we need the off-ramp in this war here because we cannot allow
00:11:36.620Iran to block the Red Sea. Meanwhile, China is threatening to arm the Iranians. That would be
00:11:43.780very bad for the United States. I think President Trump has headed that off. President Trump has
00:11:47.940now said to Xi Jinping, he wrote him a letter, he said, don't you arm the Iranians because then0.72
00:11:52.000we're going to take action against you. And Xi Jinping for now said, I don't intend to arm the0.77
00:11:55.120Iranians. It's a terrible position. And so it was always a terrible position. Trump was always in an
00:12:02.300impossible spot. That was true last year, right before the Fordo bombings. That was true six years
00:12:07.860ago, seven years ago. This has been building for many decades. But right now, I see only two
00:12:12.580options on Iran, both of them terrible. And we'll get to what those are in a second. First, though,
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00:13:41.740see how much you can save, policygenius.com slash Knowles. I see two options on Iran right now.
00:13:48.280The one is to hand over massive leverage. If we wind this thing down with a bad deal and say,
00:13:56.000okay, Iran, you'll give us some guarantees that you won't pursue your nuclear weapon for another0.93
00:14:01.080five years or 10 years, but you'll get to keep your enriched uranium, which we've buried0.88
00:14:05.620underground because of the very effective American military action. But we're going to lift some
00:14:09.480sanctions. Maybe we'll give you a little bit of money. And we're going to recognize that you can
00:14:14.340play this card again whenever you want. You can block the Strait of Hormuz whenever you want.
00:14:17.380That's one option. Not great. Or we invade Iran. Or there's a ground invasion. There are boots on
00:14:25.400the ground. Something that would take power away from Iran. We would be saying, this Strait is1.00
00:14:32.060ours now. You're not going to shut us down. We're the global hegemon. Get back in line.
00:14:37.060But it's something for which there is no appetite in the United States.
00:14:42.120Not on the left, not on the right, not among the MAGA voters, not the Americans generally
00:14:47.380who are traumatized by the experience in Iraq and Afghanistan. Nobody really wants that.
00:14:53.620But what are you going to do? So then it's very tempting to say, well, Trump just put himself in
00:14:58.480pickle. He shouldn't have done this. He played this wrong. But this problem didn't begin six
00:15:02.540weeks ago. This problem was clear eight months ago. I did a very scientific Twitter poll eight
00:15:08.280months ago before the Fordow bombings. And I said, do you think that the United States should permit
00:15:14.380Iran to develop a nuclear weapon? And in my very highly scientific Twitter poll, it was 90-10. No.
00:15:21.140Right afterward, I said, okay, do you think the United States should go to war with Iran?
00:15:25.600precisely the same numbers, 90-10, no. So if you're the president, you're in an impossible
00:15:33.460situation. And this is how it works at presidential politics. I spoke to, many years ago, I spoke to
00:15:39.500a top advisor to President Bush, and he made the point that by the time a decision gets up to the
00:15:46.400presidential level, by the time it's not being taken by the underlings, it's impossible, just
00:15:51.260by definition. When it gets up to the level of the president, there are no good options.
00:15:55.560There are a ton of risks. This is what I said at the top of the Iran strikes, the most recent Iran
00:16:00.740strikes. Everybody was celebrating in certain quarters. Everybody was saying, this is great.0.94
00:16:06.580Finally, freedom for Iran. The wonderful Persians can now be Western liberal Democrats. And isn't
00:16:11.400that going to be wonderful? We're going to bring in the crown prince Reza Pahlavi. They're going
00:16:14.680to be pro-Western. It's going to be awesome. I said, ah, not so fast. I think this regime is a
00:16:19.860little more durable than all that. Let's not forget, the last time the CIA helped to install
00:16:23.240a regime in Iran, it lasted 26 years. The Islamic revolution, the mullahs, have lasted twice as long.
00:16:28.340They're clearly durable. The Iranians are not all, as we see in lots of propaganda on social media,0.97
00:16:33.700they're not all just like hot Persian women smoking long cigarettes, okay, ripping off their0.99
00:16:38.020hijabs. There is substantial support for a radical Islamic regime. It might not be the majority of0.91
00:16:42.820Iranians, but it's real. And the Iranian regime is brutal, ruthless. They have a billion contingency0.61
00:16:49.340plans. I don't think that you can really oust them. You can keep killing a lot of them, but I
00:16:56.240don't think you can oust the regime. So you had the people that were cheering it on the one hand,0.99
00:16:59.900saying this is awesome, no downside. I interviewed someone with Cabot on Wired and Live the day the
00:17:06.240Iran strike began. It was some woman, I think she'd worked in the State Department. She was Persian by
00:17:10.420ethnicity. And she said, this is great. I don't see any downsides. I said, you don't see any
00:17:14.180potential. Hold on. I think I could name one or two. So that was one side of it. And then you had
00:17:18.800the other side saying this is terrible and Iran's a fine regime and they don't want a nuclear weapon
00:17:23.780and they're not at all a threat to the United States. I said, that's ridiculous too. The real0.97
00:17:27.980take on this is if it works, this is the greatest stroke of foreign policy genius since the fall of
00:17:35.760the Berlin Wall. If it doesn't work, this could be a brutal blow to American power. Forget about
00:17:44.240the administration, forget about the conservative coalition. It would just be a major blow to
00:17:48.920American power on the world stage. So the stakes are very high. You got to give credit. The guy's
00:17:53.080got guts like we've rarely seen in the United States. But it's a brutal, brutal situation.
00:18:01.380I'm reminded of Thucydides. I go back to Thucydides. One of the three references that
00:18:06.940anyone ever makes when it comes to war. World War II, the fall of Rome, and Thucydides. Thucydides
00:18:13.300is writing in the history of the Peloponnesian War that there are three reasons that people go
00:18:19.900to war. Fear, interest, and honor. And no one ever takes honor seriously. But fear, obviously,
00:18:26.220we fear. We don't want Iran to get a nuclear weapon. Interest, it would be good to have this
00:18:29.760crucial country in the world be more pro-Western as it was 50 years ago. And honor, too. Honor,
00:18:35.520meaning that we're the global hegemon. We cannot be pushed around by this two-bit terrorist regime
00:18:40.800in Iran and all of its backers in Russia, in China. And this leads to what is sometimes called0.94
00:18:45.680the Thucydides trap, which is that when a major power like Athenian imperial democracy or the
00:18:51.600United States is challenged by a rising power, in this case, China, war becomes very likely.
00:19:01.700Those dynamics were all in play eight months ago, two years ago, 10 years ago.0.78
00:19:07.260They're very clear right now. Very dangerous situation. I don't envy the president.
00:19:12.460He had no good options. He today has no good options. I hope he can pull a rabbit out of a
00:19:18.580hat. One thing I always tell my friends in politics or in investing or anywhere is
00:19:22.180don't bet against Trump. The guy has managed to pull a lot of rabbits out of the hat. However,
00:19:28.140this is a very difficult one. If he can pull a rabbit out of the hat on this,
00:19:32.260abolish term limits, leave him in power until he's 150 years old. Brutal situation. Coupled with
00:19:40.600the major shift in domestic political opinion, especially on the Middle East, especially on
00:19:45.280Israel, it's just a perfect storm. Okay, speaking of the president and religion, it always comes
00:19:51.920back to religion. It's not just because I care a lot about religion, you care a lot about religion,
00:19:55.700It just politics is about religion. Ultimately, the president has another message for the Pope
00:20:02.140president posted on truth social. I said, oh no, oh no. I'm white knuckling here. What did he say
00:20:09.040to the Pope this time? And he said, will someone please tell Pope Leo that Iran has killed at
00:20:14.780least 42,000 innocent, completely unarmed protesters in the last two months. And that
00:20:18.940for Iran to have a nuclear bomb is absolutely unacceptable. Can I say something? Can I say
00:20:25.220Look, I was very blunt about how I did not like the president's last tweet about the Pope where
00:20:32.360he called him weak and terrible. He said he doesn't like him and all. And I said, I don't
00:20:35.760like, it's not that you can't criticize the Pope, but I don't love the tone about this. I gave a
00:20:40.160whole speech last night, which you can catch on. I think it's on my YouTube channel. It's certainly
00:20:43.060on Yaf's YouTube channel at Villanova, the Pope's alma mater on this dynamic, the Pope versus the
00:20:48.780president. I said, a lot of it is, is the tone. You can disagree, but there should be a more
00:20:54.620respectful tone. Not just to be nice, not just to be polite, but because the temporal power
00:20:59.960has to work with the spiritual power. This is a dynamic that's existed since the 5th century,
00:21:05.380or earlier, the 4th century, actually. They have to work together. You don't want them at war. In
00:21:09.360the Middle Ages, they would literally go to war sometimes. It was not good. And there are so many
00:21:13.440dark forces arrayed against us. We cannot have Catholics fighting Protestants, Christians0.90
00:21:19.040fighting Jews in the United States, and you cannot have the temporal ruler of the global hegemon.
00:21:24.620the United States, the president of the United States, being more powerful than any Roman0.67
00:21:28.320emperor ever fighting the spiritual authority. Don't want to have it. So can I say something?
00:21:36.160This post from President Trump to the Pope, I think he heard us. I think this is actually
00:21:42.940a major improvement. It's Trumpy, so it's not the most polite ever, but look what he's saying.
00:21:48.500He's not saying, this guy's a big dummy and he's a hippie and he's a commie and he wears a hat0.99
00:21:52.720and I don't like him. He's not saying that.0.99
00:21:54.620He says, will someone please tell the Pope? He even uses the word please. That's nice.
00:21:59.500Will someone please tell the Pope that Iran has done a lot of bad things?
00:22:04.200The Pope was saying that he's skeptical that the war in Iran is justified. There are just wars,0.98
00:22:09.600but he's saying, I don't think this war is justified. And Trump is saying, no,
00:22:13.360will someone please tell the Pope? Here is the evidence for why the war might be justified.0.99
00:22:18.180So he's actually working within the same framework as the Pope in this one.
00:22:21.880it's not just accusations. It's not just insults. He's attempting to persuade in his idiosyncratic
00:22:29.040way. He is aligning his interest with the Pope's interest. They're aiming toward a common good.
00:22:34.860Hey, Pope, you want to protect innocence. Well, I just think you're wrong about how I am protecting
00:22:40.020innocence because I really am protecting innocence. And you're going to light on the
00:22:43.320Iranian regime. And actually, I'm justified in taking action against the Iranian regime1.00
00:22:49.220on the same moral bases that you're thinking about. You even get a please in there. I'll take
00:22:55.720it, guys. I know, you know, people say, well, no, I want him to say it this way. I want him to use
00:22:59.180this word. I don't like that. That's not good enough. It's not, just deleting a post isn't
00:23:02.860enough. You know, there's a million things to complain about. But in my view of politics,
00:23:07.900politics is not the art of the perfect. Politics is the art of the possible. Politics is the art
00:23:12.300of the second best. And so I'm very happy. I'm very gratified to see. President Trump posted
00:23:17.940that picture that offended a lot of people a few days ago. And then he took it down.
00:23:23.860That's a win. A lot of the other stuff about that, some of the explanations, justifications,
00:23:29.080to me, a lot of that is just noise. We asked him to take the picture down and he did. That's a good
00:23:35.880thing. We should be happy about that. In this case, Catholics in particular said we would like
00:23:43.440it if the president spoke in a more respectful tone about the pope. He did that. I'm not saying
00:23:49.640this is the way you would speak to someone at a high table at an Oxford dinner. I'm not saying
00:23:53.280this is language totally fit for the queen, but it is more respectful. He is actually moving in
00:23:58.620that direction. I'll take it. I think one step in the right direction, two steps or three steps in
00:24:02.580the right direction. I'll take it. Now, speaking of terrible regimes, Hassan Piker, a left-wing
00:24:11.080streamer who has repeatedly, consistently called for violence against conservatives,
00:24:15.800threatened conservatives. He spoke at my alma mater, Yale, last night, and he claimed that
00:24:23.400the fall of the Soviet Union is one of the great catastrophes of the 20th century. Normal Americans,
00:24:29.680patriotic Americans, Americans, consider the fall of the Soviet Union to be one of the great
00:24:36.460victories of the 20th century, one of the great victories in the history of the United States,
00:24:39.540the end of the evil empire. The rise of America as the undisputed leader of the world.
00:24:45.800For Hassan Piker, it's one of the great tragedies. And Hassan Piker is not just some guy mouthing
00:24:51.720off on a live stream. Hassan Piker is the most prominent left-wing live streamer who is now
00:24:57.480campaigning with Democrat candidates in the fall. We'll get to what that means. First, though,
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00:26:18.720Hassan Piker at dear old Yale. You know, Yale was liberal when I was there,