00:13:29.940And then you have Xi, who's writing from the perspective of Chinese communism, who's
00:13:35.000thinking, no, history is defined by impersonal historical forces, the science of history.
00:13:40.980So he's not thinking about individual great men.
00:13:43.140He's thinking about these impersonal forces. So, of course, he's much more given over to the
00:13:47.540thinking of the Thucydides trap, which gussies up modern, mostly left-wing political theory
00:13:53.840in the robes of antiquity to give it this kind of patina of authority.
00:13:58.420But the question is, is that real? Is the Thucydides trap real? Is the argument real?
00:14:04.080And is America, therefore, on a collision course with China? We'll get to the answer
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00:15:43.240valid for a limited time. Terms and conditions may apply. The Thucydides trap. I don't really
00:15:48.140like this phrase. I've invoked it before. I don't really like it, though, because I think it's a way
00:15:52.280for modern, especially liberal, poli-sci people to borrow the authority of a great historian
00:15:58.360like Thucydides. But there were a lot of serious academic historians, not just random Harvard
00:16:02.180political scientists, who said the Thucydides trap thesis is a bunch of BS. It's not true.
00:16:07.240If you look at the 16 conflicts that Graham Allison points to, they don't really work for
00:16:12.960the thesis. There are plenty of other conflicts and potential conflicts that don't really match
00:16:17.880the thesis. And even when you go to the Peloponnesian War, I mean, the great historian,
00:16:22.900Donald Kagan, who was a professor of mine, actually, he made the point, he was a Yale
00:16:26.440guy. There's another Harvard historian, Ernst Badian, who said that Thucydides' trap is bunk,
00:16:35.280actually. The reason that the Peloponnesian War broke out is because there was a quarrel in
00:16:40.020Epidamnus. There was the Megarian decree, the economic policies of the Athenians.
00:16:44.920There were the perfidious designs of the Corinthians. There was the person of Pericles0.97
00:16:49.920who made specific decisions, who had free will, who made some decisions, some of which were not
00:16:54.060good. And then he died, by the way. He just sort of died because of the plague. And had he not
00:16:58.480died, maybe the war would have taken a different ending. The Thucydides trap is more appealing to
00:17:03.920communists and the we can work it out ideas of Donald Trump. It's more appealing to those who
00:17:09.080believe in great men. One is more appealing to China. One is more appealing to America.0.65
00:17:14.480And I think Trump is right. And I think the Trump political project,
00:17:19.040Trump's whole raise on debt as a politician is to prove that great men really can change
00:17:26.440the course of history, that great men really can play a role.
00:17:30.020And so we often have these two theories of history contraposed against each other,
00:17:35.120the impersonal forces theory and the great man theory, the great man theory, which comes
00:17:39.200from the 19th century, Thomas Carlyle, very conservative guy.
00:17:42.500And my own theory of history, not to take a squishy middle road, but my own theory of
00:17:47.600history is a kind of Christian version of the great man theory. That's great man like the great
00:17:53.460man upstairs. In that, look, there's obviously providence to history. There are forces on the
00:17:59.920move in the world that are beyond our own individual will. God is sovereign over history,
00:18:04.440but God works through individual men, men who are made in the image and likeness of God
00:18:09.680and who are rescued by God himself who becomes man in Christ and who enters into history
00:18:18.100and all the political workings of history in the Roman Empire, in the time of Augustus,
00:18:22.620who is crucified under Pontius Pilate, who suffers death, who conquers death on the cross,
00:18:26.360who's resurrected on the third day, who institutes a church that is visible within the world.
00:18:30.460And so there's a little bit of both of these.
00:18:32.240They're obviously historical forces at work, but men really have free will.
00:18:36.260Men, especially cooperating with God's grace, really can make a difference.
00:18:39.680And that's what Trump is saying here.1.00
00:18:41.800Trump is saying all your stupid communist theories, liberal theories, left-wing IR theories, Thucydides trap, that's all a bunch of bunk.1.00
00:20:01.400We're Athens, you're Sparta, and we're going to come to conflict.0.91
00:20:04.640what's it going to be? I still think Trump is right, but it's a showdown. It's a showdown
00:20:11.380really to zoom out again. It is a showdown between a more Chinese view of the world and a more0.97
00:20:16.700American view of the world. Okay. Speaking of Trump as the great man kind of guy, the vice0.81
00:20:21.680president, JD Vance, just was asked a question yesterday. He keeps getting asked, hey, who's
00:20:25.620going to be the nominee in 2028? Is it going to be you? Is it going to be Rubio? Is it going to
00:20:28.340be someone else? Who does Trump want? Why does Trump keep asking these questions? Hey, crowd,
00:20:33.800Do you like Vance? Do you like Rubio? What's that all about? Vance, I think, gave the perfect answer.
00:20:40.360Us who are bringing this up a couple of days ago, Trump made this statement to people in the Rose Garden.
00:20:45.300Why do you think he does that? Do you think it's it's a little bit of toying with you both over your succession?
00:20:51.420Why do you think he brings that up? Just number one.
00:20:54.320Well, I just don't think it sounds like the president of the United States to have a televised competition for who would succeed him as his apprentice.
00:21:02.600I just think that's not at all what you would expect the president to do.
00:21:06.760But no, look, I think the president, he's always been fascinated by politics.
00:21:10.660If you talk to him, he was fascinated by politics 30 years before he ever ran for office.
00:21:15.640So I think it's natural for him to joke around with us a little bit, to play around with
00:21:27.420I love that he laughs it off, but with some real substance here.
00:21:30.960He says, hold on, is your question that Donald Trump seems to be creating a, some might call it a reality television show to determine who will succeed him in this big role?
00:21:44.780Wow, I don't think he would ever do that.
00:21:48.080Are you suggesting he might be extremely internationally famous for doing just that?
00:21:57.800because the way that he's going to get that apprenticeship is he's going to play his role.
00:22:04.100He's going to do a good job as vice president, which he is doing.
00:22:07.820And he's obviously the favorite to succeed President Trump. That was true when he picked
00:22:11.080him. And President Trump made that clear in his comments just a few days ago.
00:22:14.400But this is the way to answer that question, especially this far out.
00:22:19.260We were talking about how AOC is currently the front runner for the Democrats yesterday.
00:22:22.860If I'm Gavin Newsom, I'm happy about that. I don't want to be the front runner a year and a half out.
00:22:27.800according to the polls. This is why if I'm the vice president, I'm not that concerned that
00:22:31.280Rubio is looking good in the polls right now. So yeah, this is not the time to be peaking.
00:22:37.020You know, it's a little, this would be peaking a little bit too soon.
00:22:40.340But I like the way that Trump is dealing with this too. One, he doesn't want to say this person
00:22:44.720is definitely my successor because then he becomes a lame duck. How's he going to negotiate with0.74
00:22:49.420China or Iran or any of the other countries in the world if he does that? But two, he's saying,
00:22:55.440look, nothing is set by impersonal forces. Nothing is totally set in stone because the
00:23:01.740rules of the GOP say so. I'm the guy. Okay, I'm the guy acting in history right now. I,
00:23:08.400Donald, am a great world historic figure. That's his claim. Whether it's true or not,
00:23:12.900that's his claim. And I think there's some good evidence that it is true.0.79
00:23:17.720And so he says, look, we're going to play this thing out. We're going to see how it goes.
00:23:21.100And it's very American in the sense that this lack of confidence in the certainty of the science of history or progressivism or whatever opens up a lot of opportunity.
00:23:31.060He's saying, hey, even if things look kind of bad, you can do things.
00:28:50.040When we stop socializing in person, society breaks down because the definition of society
00:28:54.460is people getting together. To say, to celebrate that alcohol use among teenagers has dropped
00:29:01.340so precipitously is sort of like celebrating that peanut allergies declined in Nagasaki in 1945.0.90
00:29:09.540Like it's technically, it's true. And I guess that would be good. You don't want peanut allergies.0.98
00:29:14.720But the reason the peanut allergies declined in Nagasaki in 1945 is because we killed everybody.0.88
00:29:19.740To use a real-world example, not peanut allergies, there was this celebration five, six years ago that Iceland had eradicated Down syndrome.0.97
00:29:28.880And you say, well, that's a good thing.
00:29:29.800Down syndrome is a difficult condition, and it causes all these problems for individuals.
00:29:34.120But the reason that Iceland had eradicated Down syndrome is because they killed all the babies that had Down syndrome.
00:29:39.900You say, well, that's kind of a Pyrrhic victory.