The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - December 02, 2025


2026 Election will be TIGHT - Carney Liberals losing the Trump issue!

Topics
cost of living
Hosted by
Wyatt Claypool
Mentioned
Pierre Poilievre Donald Trump Mark Carney Chris Dontremont Danielle Smith Nate Erskine-Smith Jonathan Wilkinson Chrystia Freeland Steven Guilbeault Maxime Bernier Elizabeth May Matt Jenneru Don Davies
NDP Minister has MELTDOWN when question about Wokeism in schools! OneBC leader Dallas Brodie triggers NDP with Graves Question!

Episode Stats


Length

11 minutes

Words per minute

189.24

Word count

2,140

Sentence count

112

Harmful content

Misogyny

1

sentences flagged

Toxicity

3

sentences flagged

Hate speech

4

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

The Liberals are still in a deadlock with the Tories in the polls, and there's no sign of a change in either party's fortunes. I talk about why this is happening, and why it's likely to continue.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
Topics generated with Qwen2.5-3B-Instruct.
Hosts, guests, and mentioned names generated with spaCy (en_core_web_sm), reconciled against Wikidata.
00:00:00.140 Ahoy, everyone. Wyatt Claypool here, back again to talk about Canadian polls.
00:00:05.900 This time, I wanted to cover national polling, which still has the Liberals and the Conservatives in a deadlock.
00:00:13.600 I know the media has been trying to spin this narrative that Pierre Polyev and the Conservatives are failing
00:00:19.320 because look at this poll from ECOS that shows the Liberals somehow leading in Alberta.
00:00:24.980 That's all nonsense.
00:00:26.760 Conservatives were not really hurt that much by Chris Dantremont crossing the floor,
00:00:30.820 and the Liberal media really tried to play up some drama to make it seem like Polyev was on the ropes
00:00:36.880 and he's going to lose his January leadership review.
00:00:39.640 Could he, in theory, lose? Sure, I just really don't see it happening.
00:00:44.000 And now we have the Liberals facing the exact same problems, if not worse,
00:00:48.460 with Stephen Gilbeau resigning from Cabinet, likely to resign from Parliament entirely,
00:00:52.920 followed probably closely behind by Nate Erskine-Smith, Chrystia Freeland, Jonathan Wilkinson, and others.
00:01:00.800 And I think that when you look at better pollsters, they tend to reflect the public mood has not shifted in the Liberals' favor
00:01:07.540 because they haven't actually achieved the things that they set out to do during the last federal election.
00:01:13.760 Again, we have no deal right now with the Americans. 0.97
00:01:16.720 We have no trade deal. We keep signing random trade deals in Asia and Europe,
00:01:21.000 which are just nonsensical pieces of paper that just say,
00:01:24.300 we should trade more and that's it.
00:01:25.920 Or we have Carney announcing a bunch of major projects,
00:01:28.740 which are projects that were already about to be done,
00:01:31.220 or they're just minor expansions to projects that already exist.
00:01:36.320 He is trying to get points on the board before an election is called in 2026,
00:01:40.720 2026, and that looks pretty likely at this point.
00:01:44.180 Actually, we'll get to in a little bit here that Elizabeth May actually has said
00:01:47.640 that she regrets voting for the budget and that she will not repeat that mistake
00:01:51.960 and there's no one else to support it.
00:01:54.360 The NDP just didn't vote for it because they're in a leadership race right now and they're broke
00:01:57.780 and the Conservatives obviously didn't want a Christmas election
00:02:00.140 because who wants to be the guy who calls a Christmas election?
00:02:03.660 Let's go to Apicus data here and let's look at the current top line numbers.
00:02:08.720 We have the current vote share on the left here
00:02:11.340 and then we have what it was on the last Apicus poll.
00:02:15.540 Things have only shifted minorly a little bit in the favor of the Liberals.
00:02:20.080 But again, remember the media has been giving Carney a good news cycle by attacking Polyev,
00:02:25.700 making it seem like Polyev's leadership is at risk,
00:02:28.580 and Carney is signing these frivolous deals like the Memorandum of Understanding
00:02:32.700 with Alberta Premier Daniel Smith
00:02:34.880 and also going around the world again and signing these trade deals in Asia,
00:02:39.640 making it seem like he's getting stuff done,
00:02:41.860 getting these major projects through.
00:02:43.800 That will wear off.
00:02:45.100 And considering that it's a pretty good week in relative terms for Mark Carney
00:02:49.300 and he's only at 41% right now,
00:02:52.280 only leading the Conservatives by one point is not great.
00:02:55.940 But right now, we have the Liberals at 41%,
00:03:00.560 Conservatives at 40%, NDP at 8%,
00:03:03.660 Bloc at 7%, Greens at 2%, 0.70
00:03:05.800 and People's Party at 1%.
00:03:07.840 And that means that the Bloc and the NDP,
00:03:10.200 based on this poll,
00:03:11.000 have the NDP has gained 2% and the Bloc has gained 1%.
00:03:14.520 Conservatives are only one point back from where they were at last election
00:03:17.660 and the Liberals are two points back from where they were at last election.
00:03:21.360 I don't think Canadians are really in the mood to be dazzled simply by rhetoric at this point.
00:03:27.380 A policy announcement is not going to swing the public behind Carney and the Liberals.
00:03:32.060 I think people want big performance measures to actually be hit
00:03:35.900 before they are going to be willing to change from their anti-Liberal voting position.
00:03:41.320 And as you get an actual NDP leader installed,
00:03:44.700 rather than just having interim leader Don Davies,
00:03:47.320 you might have a lot of the more orange Liberals,
00:03:49.860 who were previous NDP voters but threw the Liberals a vote in this last election,
00:03:53.660 they may start returning home over to the NDP.
00:03:56.680 If the NDP goes from now 8% to even 12% or 13%,
00:04:00.960 the Liberals are probably dead
00:04:02.660 because the Conservatives are probably not going to be giving back any of the votes they took from the NDP
00:04:07.820 because they won the blue-collar trades guys
00:04:11.860 who were technically part of a union,
00:04:13.780 but they've never been left-wing people.
00:04:15.420 They voted NDP because that's what the union bosses want.
00:04:18.820 And as the NDP became the hyper-progressive party,
00:04:22.120 these guys are not interested in coming back in factories in Windsor.
00:04:26.200 They're going to stay where they're at with Polyev because they're comfortable with Polyev.
00:04:30.020 And the NDP is very unlikely to pick a leader that has any blue-collar appeal.
00:04:34.720 They're probably going to be doubling down on being the party of urban progressives,
00:04:40.040 eco-activists, and terror supporters.
00:04:42.220 But I want to take you to another part of this poll that I thought was very interesting,
00:04:48.500 and that was the issues.
00:04:50.300 The issues are terrible right now for the Liberals.
00:04:53.480 Not, like, insurmountable,
00:04:55.540 but they had a big advantage in the last election with the issues,
00:04:59.280 and now that's pretty much gone.
00:05:01.520 These are the top issues facing Canadians.
00:05:04.420 And in this poll,
00:05:05.580 people pick their top three issues.
00:05:08.720 Now, when you pick top two,
00:05:10.200 it tends to winnow it down to, like, the really big issues for people.
00:05:15.020 I think three might be excessive,
00:05:16.720 but these are still the results.
00:05:19.080 With top three issues,
00:05:20.500 rise of cost of living at 64%,
00:05:22.880 the economy is at 40%,
00:05:24.700 health care at 35%,
00:05:26.120 housing affordability and accessibility is at 34%,
00:05:29.580 Donald Trump and his administration is just at 32%,
00:05:32.960 and then immigration is at 26%,
00:05:34.640 crime and public safety, 17%.
00:05:36.920 You could say, like,
00:05:37.900 well, I thought immigration should be higher, 0.99
00:05:39.460 crime and safety should be higher.
00:05:41.040 It's just when people are picking their top three issues,
00:05:43.740 a lot of kitchen table ones end up occupying the top spots.
00:05:47.520 I guarantee a lot of people pick both the rise of cost of living
00:05:50.660 and the economy as their top issues.
00:05:53.280 But the main thing you have to look at here
00:05:55.400 is the Donald Trump and his administration option,
00:05:58.140 only at 32%.
00:05:59.600 Back in the summer, in June and July,
00:06:01.740 that was at 44%,
00:06:03.360 or at least 40%.
00:06:05.060 It's now only at 32%.
00:06:07.700 During the election,
00:06:09.180 it was at, like, 48% or 49%,
00:06:11.600 and even when you actually turned it into just people
00:06:15.780 picking their top two,
00:06:16.940 because Abacus did one where they only had people select top two,
00:06:20.220 Donald Trump was, like, 44%,
00:06:22.200 40% of people,
00:06:23.720 that was basically their number one or number two issue,
00:06:26.480 so there should be no shock why the liberals did so well.
00:06:29.460 There was a lot of single-issue elbows-up anti-Donald Trump voters.
00:06:34.100 With 32%, that's with three people picking three options.
00:06:37.980 I guarantee if you picked only two,
00:06:39.660 you'd maybe have 25% putting Donald Trump as one of their top two issues.
00:06:44.020 Without an anti-Donald Trump voting public,
00:06:47.460 it's harder for Carney to kind of hold on,
00:06:49.480 because now he actually needs to perform.
00:06:51.500 And if you look at these top issues,
00:06:53.380 maybe you give an edge on health care to the liberals. 0.70
00:06:55.700 You can give an edge to them on Donald Trump, definitely,
00:06:58.740 but that's, again, a falling issue.
00:07:01.180 Rise of cost of living, economy,
00:07:03.660 housing maybe is a little bit more of a 50-50 one,
00:07:06.600 but immigration and crime,
00:07:08.620 that's all easy conservative issues.
00:07:10.980 We talked about that in another video.
00:07:13.260 Crime and immigration end up being plus 20, 1.00
00:07:16.880 plus 30 conservative issues.
00:07:19.660 Even cost of living is like a plus 12 issue for the conservatives.
00:07:22.540 That's big.
00:07:23.920 That's like the biggest issue for people.
00:07:26.240 Might not be their top one,
00:07:27.560 but it's selected 64% of the time as one of somebody's top three issues,
00:07:32.660 and Polyev has the edge on that one.
00:07:35.060 And you'll look at people saying,
00:07:36.460 well, Wyatt, there are all these polls showing that Carney
00:07:39.360 is the preferred prime minister by far.
00:07:42.020 It really doesn't matter.
00:07:43.620 Preferred prime minister is such a weak indicator
00:07:46.120 of how people are going to vote,
00:07:47.520 because people will answer that poll in, like, different ways.
00:07:50.660 A good polling question, everyone understands what it means,
00:07:53.700 and they will all answer it in the same frame of mind.
00:07:56.200 They'll have different outcomes with what they say,
00:07:59.160 but they'll be basically trying to go along with the same philosophy.
00:08:03.400 Preferred prime minister?
00:08:04.680 A lot of NDP and bloc voters end up answering that question
00:08:07.900 more as, who realistically would you prefer as prime minister?
00:08:12.060 They know that their leaders aren't going to become prime ministers,
00:08:14.740 so they say they're liberal.
00:08:15.580 Or, you'll have people basically answering that question,
00:08:19.300 who's the ideal prime minister?
00:08:21.200 If you could pick anyone and make them prime minister tomorrow,
00:08:23.500 who do you pick?
00:08:24.400 And so some NDP and bloc will choose their own leader.
00:08:26.720 That's why Maxime Bernier can always get 2%.
00:08:29.000 People maybe would like to see him as prime minister,
00:08:31.620 and 2% of the voters would say Bernier.
00:08:33.920 A little bit of it is when you're down to numbers that low.
00:08:36.520 Sometimes it's just margin of error.
00:08:37.920 People hit the wrong button, but regardless.
00:08:39.620 And then you'll have other people answer the question like,
00:08:44.300 well, who should be the prime minister right now?
00:08:46.160 Well, I guess it's the guy with the most seats.
00:08:47.980 So you'll even have conservatives saying,
00:08:49.140 well, I think Carney should be prime minister right now
00:08:51.820 because, you know, the liberals have 170 seats
00:08:54.480 and we don't have 170 seats.
00:08:56.840 And so that's why preferred prime minister 1.00
00:08:58.340 is such a stupid thing to follow. 0.99
00:09:01.600 All the news outlets who hate Polyev love to talk about 1.00
00:09:04.800 preferred prime minister.
00:09:05.680 Oh my goodness, Carney's at 52 and Polyev's only at 28.
00:09:08.600 Well, look at the top line numbers.
00:09:10.900 Those same polls that do preferred prime minister,
00:09:13.560 the top line numbers show that Polyev and the conservatives
00:09:16.980 are like one or two points away from the liberals.
00:09:19.460 The new Nanos poll has the conservatives crawling back up.
00:09:22.420 And this is despite, again, the super bad news cycle for Polyev
00:09:27.180 with Chris Dantremont leaving and Matt Gennaro saying he's going to resign.
00:09:31.960 Now Carney gets to handle the exact same news cycle
00:09:35.380 with a bunch of liberals resigning on him.
00:09:37.440 And let's see how he holds up on it.
00:09:39.640 The media was spinning the heck out of that thing.
00:09:42.860 And we have Carney again announcing a bunch of fake projects,
00:09:46.100 things that were already basically done,
00:09:48.380 and a bunch of trade deals that aren't actually going to increase trade at all.
00:09:51.980 He's on the upswing at the moment,
00:09:53.800 but I don't think it's an upswing that's going to last.
00:09:55.760 And when you're on an upswing and you're only leading the conservatives by one point,
00:10:00.680 not exactly great.
00:10:02.360 I think the conservatives are, in fact, going to be hitting a very good news cycle in January
00:10:06.440 when Polyev probably gets somewhere like 86% of the vote, 85, 82 on his leadership review.
00:10:13.020 And he's going to have that momentum again because it's going to kill off all the questions
00:10:16.360 on if he's going to be staying on his leader.
00:10:18.700 I think you're going to have Carney having to answer questions about why his MOU,
00:10:23.720 the Memorandum of Understanding with Premier Smith, isn't turning into anything real.
00:10:29.340 You're going to have E.B. and a lot of the First Nations groups fighting with him.
00:10:32.400 You're going to have the green side of the Liberal Party mad at Carney for even suggesting a pipeline,
00:10:37.360 even though it's not going to get done.
00:10:38.980 I think that Carney is literally marching himself into a trap of his own making.
00:10:43.760 But anyways, I just wanted this to be a quick video update on the polls.
00:10:47.880 I will be back in the future.
00:10:49.600 I had to re-record this thing multiple times.
00:10:51.560 Every time I travel, because you're traveling with your very sensitive microphone rumbling around in a bag,
00:10:57.380 it throws off all the levels and you have to, like, over-correct and whatnot to make the whole thing work.
00:11:03.400 And I had to re-record this thing and I look like I'm disappearing into the curtains here
00:11:06.580 because I'm not filming with nice natural light.
00:11:09.380 But I still like this hotel because it has a nice white wall so everything tends to look better.
00:11:13.100 But never you mind that.
00:11:14.920 Thank you all for watching.
00:11:16.400 Like, share, subscribe, and I'll see you all later.