The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - December 02, 2025


2026 Election will be TIGHT - Carney Liberals losing the Trump issue!


Episode Stats


Length

11 minutes

Words per minute

189.24097

Word count

2,140

Sentence count

106

Harmful content

Misogyny

1

sentences flagged

Hate speech

4

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

The Liberals are still in a deadlock with the Tories in the polls, and there's no sign of a change in either party's fortunes. I talk about why this is happening, and why it's likely to continue.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
00:00:00.140 Ahoy, everyone. Wyatt Claypool here, back again to talk about Canadian polls.
00:00:05.900 This time, I wanted to cover national polling, which still has the Liberals and the Conservatives in a deadlock.
00:00:13.600 I know the media has been trying to spin this narrative that Pierre Polyev and the Conservatives are failing
00:00:19.320 because look at this poll from ECOS that shows the Liberals somehow leading in Alberta.
00:00:24.980 That's all nonsense.
00:00:26.760 Conservatives were not really hurt that much by Chris Dantremont crossing the floor,
00:00:30.820 and the Liberal media really tried to play up some drama to make it seem like Polyev was on the ropes
00:00:36.880 and he's going to lose his January leadership review.
00:00:39.640 Could he, in theory, lose? Sure, I just really don't see it happening.
00:00:44.000 And now we have the Liberals facing the exact same problems, if not worse,
00:00:48.460 with Stephen Gilbeau resigning from Cabinet, likely to resign from Parliament entirely,
00:00:52.920 followed probably closely behind by Nate Erskine-Smith, Chrystia Freeland, Jonathan Wilkinson, and others.
00:01:00.800 And I think that when you look at better pollsters, they tend to reflect the public mood has not shifted in the Liberals' favor
00:01:07.540 because they haven't actually achieved the things that they set out to do during the last federal election.
00:01:13.760 Again, we have no deal right now with the Americans. 0.97
00:01:16.720 We have no trade deal. We keep signing random trade deals in Asia and Europe,
00:01:21.000 which are just nonsensical pieces of paper that just say,
00:01:24.300 we should trade more and that's it.
00:01:25.920 Or we have Carney announcing a bunch of major projects,
00:01:28.740 which are projects that were already about to be done,
00:01:31.220 or they're just minor expansions to projects that already exist.
00:01:36.320 He is trying to get points on the board before an election is called in 2026,
00:01:40.720 2026, and that looks pretty likely at this point.
00:01:44.180 Actually, we'll get to in a little bit here that Elizabeth May actually has said
00:01:47.640 that she regrets voting for the budget and that she will not repeat that mistake
00:01:51.960 and there's no one else to support it.
00:01:54.360 The NDP just didn't vote for it because they're in a leadership race right now and they're broke
00:01:57.780 and the Conservatives obviously didn't want a Christmas election
00:02:00.140 because who wants to be the guy who calls a Christmas election?
00:02:03.660 Let's go to Apicus data here and let's look at the current top line numbers.
00:02:08.720 We have the current vote share on the left here
00:02:11.340 and then we have what it was on the last Apicus poll.
00:02:15.540 Things have only shifted minorly a little bit in the favor of the Liberals.
00:02:20.080 But again, remember the media has been giving Carney a good news cycle by attacking Polyev,
00:02:25.700 making it seem like Polyev's leadership is at risk,
00:02:28.580 and Carney is signing these frivolous deals like the Memorandum of Understanding
00:02:32.700 with Alberta Premier Daniel Smith
00:02:34.880 and also going around the world again and signing these trade deals in Asia,
00:02:39.640 making it seem like he's getting stuff done,
00:02:41.860 getting these major projects through.
00:02:43.800 That will wear off.
00:02:45.100 And considering that it's a pretty good week in relative terms for Mark Carney
00:02:49.300 and he's only at 41% right now,
00:02:52.280 only leading the Conservatives by one point is not great.
00:02:55.940 But right now, we have the Liberals at 41%,
00:03:00.560 Conservatives at 40%, NDP at 8%,
00:03:03.660 Bloc at 7%, Greens at 2%, 0.70
00:03:05.800 and People's Party at 1%.
00:03:07.840 And that means that the Bloc and the NDP,
00:03:10.200 based on this poll,
00:03:11.000 have the NDP has gained 2% and the Bloc has gained 1%.
00:03:14.520 Conservatives are only one point back from where they were at last election
00:03:17.660 and the Liberals are two points back from where they were at last election.
00:03:21.360 I don't think Canadians are really in the mood to be dazzled simply by rhetoric at this point.
00:03:27.380 A policy announcement is not going to swing the public behind Carney and the Liberals.
00:03:32.060 I think people want big performance measures to actually be hit
00:03:35.900 before they are going to be willing to change from their anti-Liberal voting position.
00:03:41.320 And as you get an actual NDP leader installed,
00:03:44.700 rather than just having interim leader Don Davies,
00:03:47.320 you might have a lot of the more orange Liberals,
00:03:49.860 who were previous NDP voters but threw the Liberals a vote in this last election,
00:03:53.660 they may start returning home over to the NDP.
00:03:56.680 If the NDP goes from now 8% to even 12% or 13%,
00:04:00.960 the Liberals are probably dead
00:04:02.660 because the Conservatives are probably not going to be giving back any of the votes they took from the NDP
00:04:07.820 because they won the blue-collar trades guys
00:04:11.860 who were technically part of a union,
00:04:13.780 but they've never been left-wing people.
00:04:15.420 They voted NDP because that's what the union bosses want.
00:04:18.820 And as the NDP became the hyper-progressive party,
00:04:22.120 these guys are not interested in coming back in factories in Windsor.
00:04:26.200 They're going to stay where they're at with Polyev because they're comfortable with Polyev.
00:04:30.020 And the NDP is very unlikely to pick a leader that has any blue-collar appeal.
00:04:34.720 They're probably going to be doubling down on being the party of urban progressives,
00:04:40.040 eco-activists, and terror supporters.
00:04:42.220 But I want to take you to another part of this poll that I thought was very interesting,
00:04:48.500 and that was the issues.
00:04:50.300 The issues are terrible right now for the Liberals.
00:04:53.480 Not, like, insurmountable,
00:04:55.540 but they had a big advantage in the last election with the issues,
00:04:59.280 and now that's pretty much gone.
00:05:01.520 These are the top issues facing Canadians.
00:05:04.420 And in this poll,
00:05:05.580 people pick their top three issues.
00:05:08.720 Now, when you pick top two,
00:05:10.200 it tends to winnow it down to, like, the really big issues for people.
00:05:15.020 I think three might be excessive,
00:05:16.720 but these are still the results.
00:05:19.080 With top three issues,
00:05:20.500 rise of cost of living at 64%,
00:05:22.880 the economy is at 40%,
00:05:24.700 health care at 35%,
00:05:26.120 housing affordability and accessibility is at 34%,
00:05:29.580 Donald Trump and his administration is just at 32%,
00:05:32.960 and then immigration is at 26%,
00:05:34.640 crime and public safety, 17%.
00:05:36.920 You could say, like,
00:05:37.900 well, I thought immigration should be higher, 0.99
00:05:39.460 crime and safety should be higher.
00:05:41.040 It's just when people are picking their top three issues,
00:05:43.740 a lot of kitchen table ones end up occupying the top spots.
00:05:47.520 I guarantee a lot of people pick both the rise of cost of living
00:05:50.660 and the economy as their top issues.
00:05:53.280 But the main thing you have to look at here
00:05:55.400 is the Donald Trump and his administration option,
00:05:58.140 only at 32%.
00:05:59.600 Back in the summer, in June and July,
00:06:01.740 that was at 44%,
00:06:03.360 or at least 40%.
00:06:05.060 It's now only at 32%.
00:06:07.700 During the election,
00:06:09.180 it was at, like, 48% or 49%,
00:06:11.600 and even when you actually turned it into just people
00:06:15.780 picking their top two,
00:06:16.940 because Abacus did one where they only had people select top two,
00:06:20.220 Donald Trump was, like, 44%,
00:06:22.200 40% of people,
00:06:23.720 that was basically their number one or number two issue,
00:06:26.480 so there should be no shock why the liberals did so well.
00:06:29.460 There was a lot of single-issue elbows-up anti-Donald Trump voters.
00:06:34.100 With 32%, that's with three people picking three options.
00:06:37.980 I guarantee if you picked only two,
00:06:39.660 you'd maybe have 25% putting Donald Trump as one of their top two issues.
00:06:44.020 Without an anti-Donald Trump voting public,
00:06:47.460 it's harder for Carney to kind of hold on,
00:06:49.480 because now he actually needs to perform.
00:06:51.500 And if you look at these top issues,
00:06:53.380 maybe you give an edge on health care to the liberals. 0.70
00:06:55.700 You can give an edge to them on Donald Trump, definitely,
00:06:58.740 but that's, again, a falling issue.
00:07:01.180 Rise of cost of living, economy,
00:07:03.660 housing maybe is a little bit more of a 50-50 one,
00:07:06.600 but immigration and crime,
00:07:08.620 that's all easy conservative issues.
00:07:10.980 We talked about that in another video.
00:07:13.260 Crime and immigration end up being plus 20, 1.00
00:07:16.880 plus 30 conservative issues.
00:07:19.660 Even cost of living is like a plus 12 issue for the conservatives.
00:07:22.540 That's big.
00:07:23.920 That's like the biggest issue for people.
00:07:26.240 Might not be their top one,
00:07:27.560 but it's selected 64% of the time as one of somebody's top three issues,
00:07:32.660 and Polyev has the edge on that one.
00:07:35.060 And you'll look at people saying,
00:07:36.460 well, Wyatt, there are all these polls showing that Carney
00:07:39.360 is the preferred prime minister by far.
00:07:42.020 It really doesn't matter.
00:07:43.620 Preferred prime minister is such a weak indicator
00:07:46.120 of how people are going to vote,
00:07:47.520 because people will answer that poll in, like, different ways.
00:07:50.660 A good polling question, everyone understands what it means,
00:07:53.700 and they will all answer it in the same frame of mind.
00:07:56.200 They'll have different outcomes with what they say,
00:07:59.160 but they'll be basically trying to go along with the same philosophy.
00:08:03.400 Preferred prime minister?
00:08:04.680 A lot of NDP and bloc voters end up answering that question
00:08:07.900 more as, who realistically would you prefer as prime minister?
00:08:12.060 They know that their leaders aren't going to become prime ministers,
00:08:14.740 so they say they're liberal.
00:08:15.580 Or, you'll have people basically answering that question,
00:08:19.300 who's the ideal prime minister?
00:08:21.200 If you could pick anyone and make them prime minister tomorrow,
00:08:23.500 who do you pick?
00:08:24.400 And so some NDP and bloc will choose their own leader.
00:08:26.720 That's why Maxime Bernier can always get 2%.
00:08:29.000 People maybe would like to see him as prime minister,
00:08:31.620 and 2% of the voters would say Bernier.
00:08:33.920 A little bit of it is when you're down to numbers that low.
00:08:36.520 Sometimes it's just margin of error.
00:08:37.920 People hit the wrong button, but regardless.
00:08:39.620 And then you'll have other people answer the question like,
00:08:44.300 well, who should be the prime minister right now?
00:08:46.160 Well, I guess it's the guy with the most seats.
00:08:47.980 So you'll even have conservatives saying,
00:08:49.140 well, I think Carney should be prime minister right now
00:08:51.820 because, you know, the liberals have 170 seats
00:08:54.480 and we don't have 170 seats.
00:08:56.840 And so that's why preferred prime minister
00:08:58.340 is such a stupid thing to follow.
00:09:01.600 All the news outlets who hate Polyev love to talk about
00:09:04.800 preferred prime minister.
00:09:05.680 Oh my goodness, Carney's at 52 and Polyev's only at 28.
00:09:08.600 Well, look at the top line numbers.
00:09:10.900 Those same polls that do preferred prime minister,
00:09:13.560 the top line numbers show that Polyev and the conservatives
00:09:16.980 are like one or two points away from the liberals.
00:09:19.460 The new Nanos poll has the conservatives crawling back up.
00:09:22.420 And this is despite, again, the super bad news cycle for Polyev
00:09:27.180 with Chris Dantremont leaving and Matt Gennaro saying he's going to resign.
00:09:31.960 Now Carney gets to handle the exact same news cycle
00:09:35.380 with a bunch of liberals resigning on him.
00:09:37.440 And let's see how he holds up on it.
00:09:39.640 The media was spinning the heck out of that thing.
00:09:42.860 And we have Carney again announcing a bunch of fake projects,
00:09:46.100 things that were already basically done,
00:09:48.380 and a bunch of trade deals that aren't actually going to increase trade at all.
00:09:51.980 He's on the upswing at the moment,
00:09:53.800 but I don't think it's an upswing that's going to last.
00:09:55.760 And when you're on an upswing and you're only leading the conservatives by one point,
00:10:00.680 not exactly great.
00:10:02.360 I think the conservatives are, in fact, going to be hitting a very good news cycle in January
00:10:06.440 when Polyev probably gets somewhere like 86% of the vote, 85, 82 on his leadership review.
00:10:13.020 And he's going to have that momentum again because it's going to kill off all the questions
00:10:16.360 on if he's going to be staying on his leader.
00:10:18.700 I think you're going to have Carney having to answer questions about why his MOU,
00:10:23.720 the Memorandum of Understanding with Premier Smith, isn't turning into anything real.
00:10:29.340 You're going to have E.B. and a lot of the First Nations groups fighting with him.
00:10:32.400 You're going to have the green side of the Liberal Party mad at Carney for even suggesting a pipeline,
00:10:37.360 even though it's not going to get done.
00:10:38.980 I think that Carney is literally marching himself into a trap of his own making.
00:10:43.760 But anyways, I just wanted this to be a quick video update on the polls.
00:10:47.880 I will be back in the future.
00:10:49.600 I had to re-record this thing multiple times.
00:10:51.560 Every time I travel, because you're traveling with your very sensitive microphone rumbling around in a bag,
00:10:57.380 it throws off all the levels and you have to, like, over-correct and whatnot to make the whole thing work.
00:11:03.400 And I had to re-record this thing and I look like I'm disappearing into the curtains here
00:11:06.580 because I'm not filming with nice natural light.
00:11:09.380 But I still like this hotel because it has a nice white wall so everything tends to look better.
00:11:13.100 But never you mind that.
00:11:14.920 Thank you all for watching.
00:11:16.400 Like, share, subscribe, and I'll see you all later.