Are Trudeau's Liberals Collapsing？!？
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Summary
In the midst of absolutely terrible polling for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, you might be wondering why the Liberal government hasn t completely collapsed yet. Is it because Jagmeet Singh and the NDP are not yet in power, or is it because the Liberal Party is in the middle of a complete collapse?
Transcript
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In the midst of absolutely terrible polling for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the
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Federal Liberal Party, you might be wondering to yourself quietly or loudly proclaiming
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in public, how has the Liberal government not collapsed yet?
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Obviously, they partially haven't collapsed because of Jagmeet Singh and the NDP Supply
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and Confidence Agreement, where they, in exchange for nothing, will continue passing everything
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the Liberals want and keep helping them survive confidence votes.
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But I think that it's arguable that the Liberal government is in the middle of a collapse.
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They haven't fully collapsed because of Jagmeet Singh and the NDP, but every single indicator
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would say that if the NDP had competent leadership, they would be pulling the plug on the Liberals.
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The NDP knows it's not going to form government, but it should be at least pursuing strengthening
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in its hand while Justin Trudeau is so weak that they should be, if they are smart, willing
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to have a conservative majority government for four years so that they can actually start
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to eat up more of the left-wing part of the political spectrum in Canada.
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Obviously, I'm a conservative, so I want the Liberals and the NDP to lose, but I always
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also like to critique the way that federal parties operate themselves, both the Liberals
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I even hand out good advice to them, but, you know, sadly, they never take it.
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But why I think that they're in the middle of a collapse right now is that regardless of
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what happens before 2025, there's no recovering for the Liberals.
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They're just in the slow decline or fast decline, depending on how you look at it, and there's
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If anything, the smartest thing for the Liberals to do would be to lose now and then regain
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If they drag out, just absolutely blowing it in government right now, they will just leave
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a bad taste in people's mouths for decades to come.
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Whereas if they just almost kind of, you know, exit quietly now, allow the NDP to collapse
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them and then let Pierre Pagliav take a majority government, they might be able to save themselves
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a little bit of the embarrassment of Justin Trudeau basically being dragged out of parliament,
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And why I say this is you have to look at the polling and just see how just nobody really
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seems to have much confidence in Justin Trudeau anymore.
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I actually just want to quickly bring this up on screen now.
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I don't really want to look too much at Angus Reid's polls right now.
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Justin Trudeau staying in power until the next election or Justin Trudeau stepping down?
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The total right now is 57% of people want him to leave, 28% want him to stay, and 15%
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Obviously, mostly conservatives want him to go.
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The funny thing is 12% of conservatives want him to stay, and I do not doubt that they would
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rather beat Justin Trudeau in 2025 rather than beat someone far less compelling to beat like,
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you know, you know, Chrystia Freeland or why am I Mark Carney?
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But the scary thing for Trudeau is 47% of NDP and 41% of liberal voters wanting him out.
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Not only is his coalition partner wanting him out, but a lot of his own supporters from
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2021, which again, that was not exactly a big high watermark for the liberals.
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It wasn't like his 2015 numbers, they won a big majority.
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So obviously, the sort of people in a poll who would have voted from last election are
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This is his hardcore base from 21, and 41% of that hardcore base doesn't want him to stick
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And now I just want to move on to the Angus, not Angus, the Abacus data polling, showing
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that Justin Trudeau is, he's technically his disapproval rating come down a bit, but it's
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He can not get out of this 27% approval rating, like a little slump that he's in.
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And the reason that's very dangerous for someone like him is because, like I've said in a lot
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of other episodes of this show, Justin Trudeau's approval is effectively whatever the liberals
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Plus or minus two, the liberals are never going to exceed greatly what Justin Trudeau's
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approval rating is, because he's so brain drained the party, and every single minister
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and MP follows exactly what he says, to the point that nobody sees anything the government
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So when you see Justin Trudeau's approval rating at 27%, it's not surprising that he's
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And when you look at his long-term approval, he's like, you know, 29%, 28%, 30%, 31%.
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And when you go back to their polling, it's effectively the exact same thing, 26%, 28%,
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Again, with the Conservative Party, I'll even bring up Pierre Polyev's approval.
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But the Conservative Party is pulling off 40% in the polls right now.
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Because again, you don't have to be in love with Pierre Polyev to think that it's a good
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idea to vote for the Conservatives. With the Liberals, there's no policies in the playbook
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where you're like, well, I don't like Justin Trudeau's personality, but I like his policies.
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If you were here for the policies, you would have run away before 2019. You would have not
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been with the Liberals this late in the game, waiting for the policy to somehow create good
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results in Canada. It's obviously not. You're either sticking around just because for some
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reason you love the charisma of Justin Trudeau, or you're a hyper-progressive who really
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just cares about social issues in the GTA. That's what his base is, left. And that's why I don't
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think Justin Trudeau will ever have as bad of an election turnout as Michael Ignatieff.
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But the thing is, I think that his ceiling is sealed at around 30%. I don't think that the
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Liberal Party could do more than 30% in the next election. Effectively, the only thing that they
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can count on is the Conservative Party somehow messing up and then alienating a bunch of their
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members of their base. If they want to avoid that, basically, they should just stick on the
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trail. They are. Just be hardline conservative on every issue. Don't buckle. Don't be like
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Aaron O'Toole and start endorsing carbon taxes and gun bans and whatnot. That's how you make
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sure that your turnout remains low. The funny thing is, in 2021, turnout was up because everyone's
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at home during COVID reading the news, so everyone feels like a political expert that election.
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And somehow, Aaron O'Toole still brought in less votes. It was just a turnout election,
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effectively. But he just didn't excite his people. The Liberals excited their people to come
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out and defend the lockdown regime. And Aaron O'Toole didn't have the opposite side of the
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political spectrum come up for him, people against lockdowns. I just want to move on to a couple of
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these other polls, because again, these are fairly enlightening in my mind. So when you see the
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committed voters by the regions, this is where Trudeau is losing so bad. It's in BC and Ontario right
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now. Atlantic Canada, too. The Conservatives actually looked like they could sweep certain provinces,
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but obviously, there's not that many more seats for the Conservatives to win in the Atlantic Canada.
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Obviously, the Liberals will still mostly win all the seats in Newfoundland and places like PEI,
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but the Conservatives could sweep New Brunswick and win a lot of Nova Scotia. But the main thing is in
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Ontario, with 42% in Ontario and 41% in BC, the Conservatives are winning 50% more seats than they
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used to win over there. And the Liberals are even potentially losing a bunch of seats to the MVP.
0.77
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And even in Manitoba, the Liberals could lose any seats they had there to the NDP simply because
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Wab Canu was just elected, and now the NDP is suddenly very popular there. It's why the Liberal
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Party used to do somewhat well in Alberta back in the day, because it used to be a little bit more
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divided federally. But as soon as the NDP won the provincial election in 2015, there's maybe one
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or two seats in the entire province that are ever competitive for the Liberals. And despite the fact
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that the NDP is a fairly distant third party, most of the time and across Canada, they have far more
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options in the province of Alberta to win. And so when I say that this party is in collapse, it's that
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you're not going to be able to win back the type of voters that the Liberals require to be able to like
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actually carry elections based on everything that's going on right now. Here's another poll, this is actually
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from the previous abacus data poll. And what I mean, when you don't, they cannot bring back the right sorts of
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voters. Again, all the Liberals have is climate voters, socially progressive voters, and that's it. If you
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really care about the economy, the Liberals aren't going to release a policy talking about, like, I don't know,
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like, we're going to support small businesses. Oh, we're going to try and create new jobs. It's just that nobody
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kind of, those are track record issues. If you're in government, you have a bad track record over eight
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years, you're not going to put out a policy and convince people that you're going to be good on that
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issue all of a sudden. That was the problem with the PCs in Manitoba. They had fantastic socially
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conservative policies towards the very end of their government about protecting parents. But the
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problem with putting that stuff out late in the game is although that brings back on socially
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conservative people, you can't market economic policies or economic record. If you've had a bad
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economic record, you can't just say we're going to have a good economic record. This is even where
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I kind of criticized Daniel Smith during the Alberta 2023 election, when suddenly in the middle of the
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election, they're saying we're going to reduce income taxes and other sorts of corporate taxes
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and whatnot. It's like, you should have done that. You should have announced that right when you became
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the premier. Because if you say in the middle of an election, people are like, well, you were in
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government, you didn't do it. So I'm, this could be an empty promise. That was the exact thing that
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happened in Manitoba, a lackluster PC government that was like a big government kind of man, like a
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government managed economic growth type of a party. And when they started trying to pivot back to more
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free market stuff before the election, nobody trusted them and business people stayed home.
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So but this poll for the liberals shows the exact same thing on a lot of those long term issues that
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you have to establish credibility on liberals have none. So this is last, this is last week's
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poll from Abacus. So taking action to deal with climate change, Trudeau has a seven plus lead over
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peer poly up, making childcare more affordable, he has a four plus lead over peer poly up. And okay,
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that's pretty pathetic, too, that he only has a seven plus and a four plus lead over poly up over
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two issues that he effectively has monopolized all the speaking time on. It's not that like poly up
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like this, the environment sucks, burn it. Obviously not. But he also doesn't he's not an alarmist. And
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yet even probably climate alarmists don't exactly trust Justin Trudeau anymore. They're probably going
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over to the Green Party, obviously, or even the NDP. But on all these other economic issues,
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and like or sort of different efficiency issues in government, stuff like protecting and improving
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the public health care system here has a seven plus lead dealing with Donald Trump becomes the
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US president. That one's a little bit of a side issue, but like plus nine, managing the economy to
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create better paying jobs, plus 15 poly up building more houses and making life more affordable or making
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it more affordable plus 18 poly up making life more affordable plus 17 poly up keeping taxes as low as
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possible plus 24% poly up. And even though sometimes in some elections, people get complacent
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about how much taxes are really going to cripple the economy. Some people think, well, if we raise
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taxes, look, all the extra social benefits we'll get people have seen that those social benefits
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aren't worth it. So if you're not a low tax party, you're going to get clobbered in 2025. People are not
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going to evolve on that issue before the election say no, what actually raising taxes on the rich is a great
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idea because we could have more buses or something like that. We could we could make more infrastructure
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projects that won't be done in 12 years. Nobody's on board with that stuff because people are noticing
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that their own home finances are finally being infringed upon based on all the government policies
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and inflation. So when you're winning 24% with people who think that you're going to keep your taxes
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low in an election, whenever you see the polling when it comes to what people care most about, the most the
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polling shows people are pretty much caring about cost of living. And if you're winning on
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taxes and a cost of living election, you're pretty unlikely to lose. Like again, even just the
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liberals arguments against pure poly of are extremely pathetic. Remember that Apple video
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where pure poly of eating an apple, like answering ridiculous questions from a reporter just asking
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what he means every time he asks another smear question, the liberals tried to turn that viral
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video, not just in Canada, but around the world with conservatives, they tried to turn that video into an
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attack ad against pure poly of these people suck at marketing. Why would you ever play people were
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even saying thanks for the free advertising from the conservative party when the liberals posted that
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because they don't know how to do marketing. They just assume that well, we'll point out a couple of
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times because poly of said I don't really use left and right language when I speak on issues. And
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they're like the liberals like we can cherry pick four times he has done that and everyone's going to
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like us like who cares what you're making a nothing point. And then like them trying to say,
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you know, poly of is actually a lot like Donald Trump. I think Max Fawcett at the National Observer
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wrote an article like that. Like nobody cares. I even talked to a room of conservatives who are
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worried about like pure poly of being labeled as Candace Trump. It's like the only reason the
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liberals are saying that about him is because like Trump, pure poly is being very noticeable.
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That's his biggest piece of that's the thing is most in common with Donald Trump. He's a compelling
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person to listen to, regardless of what you think of Donald Trump or pure poly of being noticed as a
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fantastic thing when you're in electoral politics. The problem for Justin Trudeau these days is he's
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actually not very, no one really cares about him these days. He's around, people make fun of him,
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but nobody's waiting for a new policy proposal from him because they think he's tapped out.
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And everyone trying to criticize poly of is like, he's just being negative. He doesn't have enough
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policy proposals. That doesn't play well in an election. Nobody reads the 50 page reports that
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Aaron O'Toole put out on policy. One, they weren't very good. I can tell you from having skimmed through
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them. And then two, who cares? Who's reading a 50 page report? They trust Poly of more,
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more simplistically defining his small government worldview than they do with Aaron O'Toole sort of
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giving his weird mixed economy worldview in this giant novel that he put out online. Nobody's reading
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it and they don't trust Aaron O'Toole because one-on-one he does not articulate conservatism well,
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where pure poly of articulates conservatism very well in a very concise manner. He doesn't need 20 bullet
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points to tell you why he's a conservative. He stands in favor of small government and for the
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individual first. And that's why he does so well. That's where the conservative party is actually
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having a fantastic time this election because every other party is running to the left. Even,
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frankly, the PPC, even though I would say it's a right-wing party, obviously, they're running to
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the left in the sense that they're only criticizing Poly of. So they're making Poly of seem like the only
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interesting guy in the room. When everyone's attacking the opposition leader, you know that that guy's
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going to be the next prime minister of Canada. And to take one last jab personally at the PPC,
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guys, if you wanted to have more than just several thousand members, part of your party,
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and you want to be growing the polls, try attacking the prime minister. Try proving why he's doing a
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bad job and why you're going to do a better job. No, I guarantee you, no party in history has ever won
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attacking the opposition leader when they're in election. You attack the current prime minister,
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and only the current prime minister's party gets to attack the opposition because they're
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obviously the people who might replace them. They're allowed to do that, and even then,
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the ruling party should mostly just stick to talking about accomplishments and talking about
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how the other guys aren't really as serious as they are. That's it. Anyways, that should be it for
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