The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - Are Trudeau's Liberals Collapsing？!？

00:00:00.000 In the midst of absolutely terrible polling for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the

00:00:03.980 Federal Liberal Party, you might be wondering to yourself quietly or loudly proclaiming

00:00:08.780 in public, how has the Liberal government not collapsed yet?

00:00:12.740 Obviously, they partially haven't collapsed because of Jagmeet Singh and the NDP Supply

00:00:16.820 and Confidence Agreement, where they, in exchange for nothing, will continue passing everything

00:00:22.200 the Liberals want and keep helping them survive confidence votes.

00:00:25.620 But I think that it's arguable that the Liberal government is in the middle of a collapse.

00:00:30.960 They haven't fully collapsed because of Jagmeet Singh and the NDP, but every single indicator

00:00:35.640 would say that if the NDP had competent leadership, they would be pulling the plug on the Liberals.

00:00:41.240 The NDP knows it's not going to form government, but it should be at least pursuing strengthening

00:00:45.540 in its hand while Justin Trudeau is so weak that they should be, if they are smart, willing

00:00:50.660 to have a conservative majority government for four years so that they can actually start

00:00:55.420 to eat up more of the left-wing part of the political spectrum in Canada.

00:00:59.040 Obviously, I'm a conservative, so I want the Liberals and the NDP to lose, but I always

00:01:03.200 also like to critique the way that federal parties operate themselves, both the Liberals

00:01:08.260 and the NDP.

00:01:09.120 I even hand out good advice to them, but, you know, sadly, they never take it.

00:01:15.440 But why I think that they're in the middle of a collapse right now is that regardless of

00:01:20.320 what happens before 2025, there's no recovering for the Liberals.

00:01:23.940 They're just in the slow decline or fast decline, depending on how you look at it, and there's

00:01:29.480 no action that they can take to recover.

00:01:31.720 If anything, the smartest thing for the Liberals to do would be to lose now and then regain

00:01:35.960 support later.

00:01:36.900 If they drag out, just absolutely blowing it in government right now, they will just leave

00:01:42.660 a bad taste in people's mouths for decades to come.

00:01:45.140 Whereas if they just almost kind of, you know, exit quietly now, allow the NDP to collapse

00:01:51.100 them and then let Pierre Pagliav take a majority government, they might be able to save themselves

00:01:55.440 a little bit of the embarrassment of Justin Trudeau basically being dragged out of parliament,

00:02:00.360 kicking and screaming after the 2025 election.

00:02:03.380 And why I say this is you have to look at the polling and just see how just nobody really

00:02:08.060 seems to have much confidence in Justin Trudeau anymore.

00:02:10.660 I actually just want to quickly bring this up on screen now.

00:02:15.060 I'll just share it.

00:02:16.360 It was just about the, it's from Angus Reid.

00:02:18.800 I don't really want to look too much at Angus Reid's polls right now.

00:02:21.700 But this is the, what do you prefer?

00:02:23.260 Justin Trudeau staying in power until the next election or Justin Trudeau stepping down?

00:02:27.160 The total right now is 57% of people want him to leave, 28% want him to stay, and 15%

00:02:33.300 don't know.

00:02:34.320 Obviously, mostly conservatives want him to go.

00:02:36.720 The funny thing is 12% of conservatives want him to stay, and I do not doubt that they would

00:02:40.840 rather beat Justin Trudeau in 2025 rather than beat someone far less compelling to beat like,

00:02:46.820 you know, you know, Chrystia Freeland or why am I Mark Carney?

00:02:51.420 He's so boring, I almost forgot his name.

00:02:53.000 But the scary thing for Trudeau is 47% of NDP and 41% of liberal voters wanting him out.

00:02:59.800 That is not tenable for Justin Trudeau.

00:03:02.560 Not only is his coalition partner wanting him out, but a lot of his own supporters from

00:03:06.660 2021, which again, that was not exactly a big high watermark for the liberals.

00:03:11.280 It wasn't like his 2015 numbers, they won a big majority.

00:03:14.400 So obviously, the sort of people in a poll who would have voted from last election are

00:03:18.100 a big portion of the electorate.

00:03:19.980 No, no, no.

00:03:20.360 This is his hardcore base from 21, and 41% of that hardcore base doesn't want him to stick

00:03:26.420 around. 0.99

00:03:26.720 That is truly pathetic. 0.97

00:03:28.420 And now I just want to move on to the Angus, not Angus, the Abacus data polling, showing 0.95

00:03:33.800 that Justin Trudeau is, he's technically his disapproval rating come down a bit, but it's

00:03:38.120 really just obviously ebbs and flows of it.

00:03:40.180 He can not get out of this 27% approval rating, like a little slump that he's in.

00:03:45.260 And the reason that's very dangerous for someone like him is because, like I've said in a lot

00:03:50.060 of other episodes of this show, Justin Trudeau's approval is effectively whatever the liberals

00:03:55.340 percentage in the federal polling is.

00:03:57.560 Plus or minus two, the liberals are never going to exceed greatly what Justin Trudeau's

00:04:03.460 approval rating is, because he's so brain drained the party, and every single minister

00:04:07.820 and MP follows exactly what he says, to the point that nobody sees anything the government

00:04:13.300 does being disconnected from Justin Trudeau.

00:04:16.000 So when you see Justin Trudeau's approval rating at 27%, it's not surprising that he's

00:04:20.800 at 26%.

00:04:21.800 And when you look at his long-term approval, he's like, you know, 29%, 28%, 30%, 31%.

00:04:27.720 And when you go back to their polling, it's effectively the exact same thing, 26%, 28%,

00:04:32.420 29%, 28%, 28%, 30%, 31%.

00:04:34.560 Again, with the Conservative Party, I'll even bring up Pierre Polyev's approval.

00:04:39.400 His approval is 36%, disapproval 34%.

00:04:41.860 But the Conservative Party is pulling off 40% in the polls right now.

00:04:45.040 Because again, you don't have to be in love with Pierre Polyev to think that it's a good

00:04:49.280 idea to vote for the Conservatives. With the Liberals, there's no policies in the playbook

00:04:53.560 where you're like, well, I don't like Justin Trudeau's personality, but I like his policies.

00:04:57.560 If you were here for the policies, you would have run away before 2019. You would have not

00:05:02.180 been with the Liberals this late in the game, waiting for the policy to somehow create good

00:05:06.620 results in Canada. It's obviously not. You're either sticking around just because for some

00:05:10.580 reason you love the charisma of Justin Trudeau, or you're a hyper-progressive who really

00:05:15.280 just cares about social issues in the GTA. That's what his base is, left. And that's why I don't

00:05:20.640 think Justin Trudeau will ever have as bad of an election turnout as Michael Ignatieff.

00:05:25.860 But the thing is, I think that his ceiling is sealed at around 30%. I don't think that the

00:05:30.480 Liberal Party could do more than 30% in the next election. Effectively, the only thing that they

00:05:35.000 can count on is the Conservative Party somehow messing up and then alienating a bunch of their

00:05:39.880 members of their base. If they want to avoid that, basically, they should just stick on the

00:05:43.400 trail. They are. Just be hardline conservative on every issue. Don't buckle. Don't be like

00:05:47.860 Aaron O'Toole and start endorsing carbon taxes and gun bans and whatnot. That's how you make

00:05:52.000 sure that your turnout remains low. The funny thing is, in 2021, turnout was up because everyone's

00:05:58.180 at home during COVID reading the news, so everyone feels like a political expert that election.

00:06:03.340 And somehow, Aaron O'Toole still brought in less votes. It was just a turnout election,

00:06:07.780 effectively. But he just didn't excite his people. The Liberals excited their people to come

00:06:12.500 out and defend the lockdown regime. And Aaron O'Toole didn't have the opposite side of the

00:06:18.680 political spectrum come up for him, people against lockdowns. I just want to move on to a couple of

00:06:23.640 these other polls, because again, these are fairly enlightening in my mind. So when you see the

00:06:27.960 committed voters by the regions, this is where Trudeau is losing so bad. It's in BC and Ontario right

00:06:35.280 now. Atlantic Canada, too. The Conservatives actually looked like they could sweep certain provinces,

00:06:39.100 but obviously, there's not that many more seats for the Conservatives to win in the Atlantic Canada.

00:06:45.520 Obviously, the Liberals will still mostly win all the seats in Newfoundland and places like PEI,

00:06:50.700 but the Conservatives could sweep New Brunswick and win a lot of Nova Scotia. But the main thing is in

00:06:55.280 Ontario, with 42% in Ontario and 41% in BC, the Conservatives are winning 50% more seats than they

00:07:02.500 used to win over there. And the Liberals are even potentially losing a bunch of seats to the MVP. 0.77

00:07:06.680 And even in Manitoba, the Liberals could lose any seats they had there to the NDP simply because

00:07:12.040 Wab Canu was just elected, and now the NDP is suddenly very popular there. It's why the Liberal

00:07:17.400 Party used to do somewhat well in Alberta back in the day, because it used to be a little bit more

00:07:22.140 divided federally. But as soon as the NDP won the provincial election in 2015, there's maybe one

00:07:27.340 or two seats in the entire province that are ever competitive for the Liberals. And despite the fact

00:07:32.420 that the NDP is a fairly distant third party, most of the time and across Canada, they have far more

00:07:37.940 options in the province of Alberta to win. And so when I say that this party is in collapse, it's that

00:07:44.080 you're not going to be able to win back the type of voters that the Liberals require to be able to like

00:07:50.100 actually carry elections based on everything that's going on right now. Here's another poll, this is actually

00:07:55.040 from the previous abacus data poll. And what I mean, when you don't, they cannot bring back the right sorts of

00:08:00.560 voters. Again, all the Liberals have is climate voters, socially progressive voters, and that's it. If you

00:08:06.100 really care about the economy, the Liberals aren't going to release a policy talking about, like, I don't know,

00:08:11.200 like, we're going to support small businesses. Oh, we're going to try and create new jobs. It's just that nobody

00:08:15.420 kind of, those are track record issues. If you're in government, you have a bad track record over eight

00:08:20.740 years, you're not going to put out a policy and convince people that you're going to be good on that

00:08:24.620 issue all of a sudden. That was the problem with the PCs in Manitoba. They had fantastic socially

00:08:28.920 conservative policies towards the very end of their government about protecting parents. But the

00:08:33.680 problem with putting that stuff out late in the game is although that brings back on socially

00:08:37.440 conservative people, you can't market economic policies or economic record. If you've had a bad

00:08:42.360 economic record, you can't just say we're going to have a good economic record. This is even where

00:08:46.280 I kind of criticized Daniel Smith during the Alberta 2023 election, when suddenly in the middle of the

00:08:51.900 election, they're saying we're going to reduce income taxes and other sorts of corporate taxes

00:08:56.720 and whatnot. It's like, you should have done that. You should have announced that right when you became

00:09:01.060 the premier. Because if you say in the middle of an election, people are like, well, you were in

00:09:04.000 government, you didn't do it. So I'm, this could be an empty promise. That was the exact thing that

00:09:08.380 happened in Manitoba, a lackluster PC government that was like a big government kind of man, like a

00:09:14.460 government managed economic growth type of a party. And when they started trying to pivot back to more

00:09:19.420 free market stuff before the election, nobody trusted them and business people stayed home.

00:09:23.560 So but this poll for the liberals shows the exact same thing on a lot of those long term issues that

00:09:28.240 you have to establish credibility on liberals have none. So this is last, this is last week's

00:09:33.460 poll from Abacus. So taking action to deal with climate change, Trudeau has a seven plus lead over

00:09:39.780 peer poly up, making childcare more affordable, he has a four plus lead over peer poly up. And okay,

00:09:45.280 that's pretty pathetic, too, that he only has a seven plus and a four plus lead over poly up over 0.85

00:09:49.520 two issues that he effectively has monopolized all the speaking time on. It's not that like poly up 0.73

00:09:55.020 like this, the environment sucks, burn it. Obviously not. But he also doesn't he's not an alarmist. And 0.99

00:10:00.620 yet even probably climate alarmists don't exactly trust Justin Trudeau anymore. They're probably going

00:10:05.400 over to the Green Party, obviously, or even the NDP. But on all these other economic issues,

00:10:10.420 and like or sort of different efficiency issues in government, stuff like protecting and improving

00:10:15.720 the public health care system here has a seven plus lead dealing with Donald Trump becomes the

00:10:19.900 US president. That one's a little bit of a side issue, but like plus nine, managing the economy to

00:10:24.300 create better paying jobs, plus 15 poly up building more houses and making life more affordable or making

00:10:29.540 it more affordable plus 18 poly up making life more affordable plus 17 poly up keeping taxes as low as

00:10:35.000 possible plus 24% poly up. And even though sometimes in some elections, people get complacent

00:10:41.040 about how much taxes are really going to cripple the economy. Some people think, well, if we raise

00:10:45.580 taxes, look, all the extra social benefits we'll get people have seen that those social benefits

00:10:49.700 aren't worth it. So if you're not a low tax party, you're going to get clobbered in 2025. People are not

00:10:56.140 going to evolve on that issue before the election say no, what actually raising taxes on the rich is a great

00:11:02.100 idea because we could have more buses or something like that. We could we could make more infrastructure

00:11:07.020 projects that won't be done in 12 years. Nobody's on board with that stuff because people are noticing

00:11:11.500 that their own home finances are finally being infringed upon based on all the government policies

00:11:16.560 and inflation. So when you're winning 24% with people who think that you're going to keep your taxes

00:11:22.020 low in an election, whenever you see the polling when it comes to what people care most about, the most the

00:11:27.400 polling shows people are pretty much caring about cost of living. And if you're winning on

00:11:31.780 taxes and a cost of living election, you're pretty unlikely to lose. Like again, even just the

00:11:37.560 liberals arguments against pure poly of are extremely pathetic. Remember that Apple video 0.92

00:11:42.360 where pure poly of eating an apple, like answering ridiculous questions from a reporter just asking

00:11:47.220 what he means every time he asks another smear question, the liberals tried to turn that viral

00:11:52.060 video, not just in Canada, but around the world with conservatives, they tried to turn that video into an 0.96

00:11:57.460 attack ad against pure poly of these people suck at marketing. Why would you ever play people were

00:12:02.380 even saying thanks for the free advertising from the conservative party when the liberals posted that

00:12:06.140 because they don't know how to do marketing. They just assume that well, we'll point out a couple of

00:12:10.200 times because poly of said I don't really use left and right language when I speak on issues. And

00:12:14.400 they're like the liberals like we can cherry pick four times he has done that and everyone's going to

00:12:18.240 like us like who cares what you're making a nothing point. And then like them trying to say,

00:12:23.140 you know, poly of is actually a lot like Donald Trump. I think Max Fawcett at the National Observer

00:12:28.220 wrote an article like that. Like nobody cares. I even talked to a room of conservatives who are

00:12:32.460 worried about like pure poly of being labeled as Candace Trump. It's like the only reason the

00:12:38.080 liberals are saying that about him is because like Trump, pure poly is being very noticeable.

00:12:42.340 That's his biggest piece of that's the thing is most in common with Donald Trump. He's a compelling

00:12:47.840 person to listen to, regardless of what you think of Donald Trump or pure poly of being noticed as a

00:12:52.540 fantastic thing when you're in electoral politics. The problem for Justin Trudeau these days is he's

00:12:56.800 actually not very, no one really cares about him these days. He's around, people make fun of him,

00:13:01.380 but nobody's waiting for a new policy proposal from him because they think he's tapped out.

00:13:05.540 And everyone trying to criticize poly of is like, he's just being negative. He doesn't have enough

00:13:09.880 policy proposals. That doesn't play well in an election. Nobody reads the 50 page reports that

00:13:15.300 Aaron O'Toole put out on policy. One, they weren't very good. I can tell you from having skimmed through

00:13:19.980 them. And then two, who cares? Who's reading a 50 page report? They trust Poly of more,

00:13:26.060 more simplistically defining his small government worldview than they do with Aaron O'Toole sort of

00:13:32.220 giving his weird mixed economy worldview in this giant novel that he put out online. Nobody's reading

00:13:38.000 it and they don't trust Aaron O'Toole because one-on-one he does not articulate conservatism well,

00:13:43.400 where pure poly of articulates conservatism very well in a very concise manner. He doesn't need 20 bullet

00:13:48.840 points to tell you why he's a conservative. He stands in favor of small government and for the

00:13:53.940 individual first. And that's why he does so well. That's where the conservative party is actually

00:13:58.900 having a fantastic time this election because every other party is running to the left. Even,

00:14:03.040 frankly, the PPC, even though I would say it's a right-wing party, obviously, they're running to

00:14:07.100 the left in the sense that they're only criticizing Poly of. So they're making Poly of seem like the only

00:14:11.200 interesting guy in the room. When everyone's attacking the opposition leader, you know that that guy's

00:14:16.060 going to be the next prime minister of Canada. And to take one last jab personally at the PPC,

00:14:21.020 guys, if you wanted to have more than just several thousand members, part of your party,

00:14:26.840 and you want to be growing the polls, try attacking the prime minister. Try proving why he's doing a

00:14:31.720 bad job and why you're going to do a better job. No, I guarantee you, no party in history has ever won

00:14:38.160 attacking the opposition leader when they're in election. You attack the current prime minister,

00:14:44.620 and only the current prime minister's party gets to attack the opposition because they're

00:14:49.780 obviously the people who might replace them. They're allowed to do that, and even then,

00:14:53.780 the ruling party should mostly just stick to talking about accomplishments and talking about

00:14:57.420 how the other guys aren't really as serious as they are. That's it. Anyways, that should be it for

00:15:02.480 me today. Make sure, if you can, donate to my legal fund in the comment section below,

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The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - October 20, 2023

Are Trudeau's Liberals Collapsing？!？

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