The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - September 28, 2024


BC Conservatives projected to win majority over Eby's NDP


Episode Stats

Length

12 minutes

Words per Minute

177.3589

Word Count

2,208

Sentence Count

130

Misogynist Sentences

1

Hate Speech Sentences

1


Summary

As I have been saying for the past few months, things are really not looking good for Premier David Eby in British Columbia. Not only is his party losing ground, but now they are actually well behind the BC Conservatives in the latest Main Street Research projections.


Transcript

00:00:00.000 As I have been saying for the past few months, things are really not looking good for Premier
00:00:05.880 David Eby in British Columbia. Not only was his party losing ground for the past several months
00:00:12.660 because of their incompetent policy and arrogant demeanor to anybody questioning what they were
00:00:18.040 doing, but now they are actually well behind the BC Conservatives in the latest Main Street
00:00:24.040 research projections. They are going to lose to the BC Conservatives 40 seats to 52 seats. The
00:00:31.040 Conservatives getting a majority of, I think, like six or seven seats. Very good for them. And this was
00:00:38.040 all very, very predictable. The BC NDP, like I was saying, have put on this arrogant attitude that
00:00:46.160 nobody is good enough to question them. And that's why the past few months of the campaign have just
00:00:51.860 been mudslinging. Obviously, attacks are just a par for the course thing in politics. American
00:00:58.440 politics, Canadian politics, European politics, you attack your opponents for things that you think
00:01:03.840 are bad about them. You know, ways that they seem incompetent on policy, things they've said or done.
00:01:10.800 But the problem with the BC NDP is that by pulling up tweets from a BC Conservative candidate from five
00:01:17.700 years ago or whatever, that only matters to voters if you've been doing at least a semi-good job as the
00:01:25.900 government. Right now, the BC NDP have made life worse in every single aspect for the people of
00:01:34.060 British Columbia. Crimes weigh up. Affordability is terrible. The housing crisis continues apace.
00:01:41.280 They're handing out free drugs to addicts and then attacking people who say that maybe we should have
00:01:46.820 involuntary rehab programs. And then two seconds ago, they decided to say that maybe we'll do
00:01:52.240 involuntary rehab programs. They're not just bad at their jobs. They're also liars. And that's why the
00:01:58.900 BC Conservatives have this projected 52-seat majority. The mainstream research model is currently giving
00:02:06.000 them a 74.2% chance of winning a majority, only a 22.4% chance to the BC NDP, and 3.1% chance that the
00:02:15.820 BC NDP even win, they'd be sharing it with the Green Party. I even think that this is underselling
00:02:22.560 how well the BC Conservatives are going to be doing on election day. This has happened in many
00:02:27.700 jurisdictions before. It doesn't matter that the BC NDP are better funded than the Conservatives
00:02:32.460 because they got $8 million from taxpayers, where the BC Conservatives only got $200,000.
00:02:37.660 The problem is it doesn't matter how much you spend. If people don't want you in office and they're
00:02:42.400 not going to vote for you, that's just how it is. You can't spend your way, do enough media appearances
00:02:47.760 to make people think that the garbage that you've been serving them is actually quite good. People
00:02:53.420 think that David Eby is incompetent. He frankly has a weak personality and comes off like he's always
00:02:59.620 talking down to everybody. And their entire campaign strategy has been that the Conservatives
00:03:05.220 are bad somehow. Okay, well, everything sucks in the province. So that's not scaring anybody that
00:03:11.240 the Conservatives are going to be wildly different from you. That's kind of what people want. But I
00:03:16.380 just want to dig into some of the details to these polls, because it's been interesting how fast
00:03:22.100 voters have been shifting from undecided to decided and how much that's been leaning towards
00:03:28.000 the BC Conservative Party. Because three polls ago, the Main Street Research projections showed or their
00:03:35.060 poll showed about only 19 or like up to 19% of people were undecided on who they were going to vote
00:03:41.720 for, which is a massive amount of people, usually 30 days out from an election, only five or six percent
00:03:46.980 of people are undecided. And since about three or four days ago, that number, I believe is actually
00:03:53.500 17%. Another poll showed 19. That has fallen all the way down to only 9% of people are undecided.
00:04:00.840 And the poll is starting to lean far more heavily towards the BC Conservatives.
00:04:07.540 Right now, the polling projections with the undecideds added in, it's 40% BC Conservatives,
00:04:15.860 38% NDP, 9% undecided and 9% Green Party. There's also four saying they're going to vote for another
00:04:22.860 party. I see those people probably splitting towards the BC Conservatives, because a lot of them might not
00:04:28.380 be aware of what the election dynamics are. As crazy as it sounds, there's going to be a lot of
00:04:33.960 people who still think this is an Andrew Wilkinson versus David Eby election. A lot of people hate
00:04:38.660 politics, and they just close it out of their lives until the week before the election. The NDP,
00:04:44.380 especially, being below 40%, is just a death knell for them. As the incumbent party, as the party that won
00:04:54.140 like 46% of the vote back in 2020, having only 38% of people on your side, yes, decided to pump them up
00:05:02.900 to like 41 or so. But the fact that you are not getting captured and automatically 40% of the
00:05:09.540 electorate that's being pulled is bad. Right now, when you actually go by the issue by issue polling,
00:05:15.860 the BC NDP is underwater significantly on all of them. On drugs, I think 78% of BC residents
00:05:22.800 disapprove of what they're doing on affordability. Like 50% of people think they're, or it was like
00:05:28.860 70% of people think they're doing a bad job. I think it was like a net negative 50. There's no
00:05:33.820 big issue that the BC NDP pull well on. I think the only issue that they were actually above water on
00:05:39.360 was intergovernmental relations. So people think they do a good job interfacing with Justin Trudeau,
00:05:45.560 which doesn't really mean anything. That's basically just saying, do you think David Eby's
00:05:49.440 friendly with Trudeau and they work well together? Sure. But you don't want them to work well
00:05:54.440 together because Justin Trudeau is equally as incompetent as David Eby. And they both support
00:05:59.080 some of the most unpopular policies in the country, safe supply drugs and the carbon tax.
00:06:05.280 That's another thing that David Eby's pretending that he's not in favor of. He's going to get rid of
00:06:09.780 the consumer carbon tax potentially now, but really he's just going to shift it even more heavily onto
00:06:14.360 businesses, which means you're still going to be paying it anyways, because no business is just going to
00:06:18.440 go bankrupt to pay the tax. They're going to pass the cost of the tax on to consumers, at least
00:06:24.260 partially. But I just want to go down to some of the dropdown menus here to look at the detailed
00:06:29.980 results. I think that this is quite interesting, how things have shaken out. The Vancouver Island
00:06:35.780 numbers shift around pretty wildly from day to day. So some days it shows the BC Conservatives ahead,
00:06:41.320 sometimes it shows the NDP ahead. But what I mainly want to focus on here is the Vancouver numbers.
00:06:46.640 The Conservatives are currently leading in Vancouver and the Vancouver metro area.
00:06:52.220 That is not that surprising because they've been neck and neck for quite a while. And this is
00:06:57.840 effectively a tie, 39.9 to 40.7. But again, for the BC NDP to win, just like they beat the BC Liberals,
00:07:07.060 they need to be five or six points ahead of the Conservatives. They cannot have it be a slugging
00:07:12.400 match in Vancouver because the BC Conservatives are going to dominate the rest of Vancouver or the
00:07:17.620 rest of British Columbia. And on Vancouver Island, I think they do have a chance of winning three or
00:07:22.120 four seats. They have one in the safe category right now. Nanaimo looks like it can flip. And
00:07:27.620 depending on the poll, there's like three or four other seats also in play, or at least in punching
00:07:33.000 distance for the Conservatives. But yeah, so the rest of BC, the Conservatives are just running up the
00:07:37.440 score. Vancouver, if the Conservatives just edge out the NDP by a little bit, and then they grab up a
00:07:44.060 couple seats on Vancouver Island, they win that 52-seat majority. Because like that's like the NDP
00:07:50.180 will have not performed, overperformed in any region in the entire province. Another thing I want to note
00:07:57.700 here, and I'll try and zoom in a little bit more, is that the BC Conservatives here are winning men
00:08:05.080 by way more than the NDP are winning women. It's just one of those things that's happened in modern
00:08:10.600 politics. More women tend to vote for center-left parties. Men tend to vote for center-right parties.
00:08:15.900 And although more women vote than men, the thing is when the when the BC Conservatives are basically
00:08:21.040 winning 50% of men, and the NDP is only winning about 45% of women, that's going to overcome
00:08:26.760 that gap. Plus, I also really don't believe, like I was saying before, that the NDP are going to even
00:08:34.080 be able to achieve their numbers that they have here. A Leger poll from like a month and a half ago
00:08:38.960 showed that the top emotion people were feeling about the election was apathy. Yes, BC United was
00:08:45.100 still around in that poll, and BC United was basically the apathy party. But even if I assumed that all 9%
00:08:52.640 of United supporters out of that 32% people feeling apathetic were all United, well, there's still
00:08:59.700 about, you know, 24% of people who are still feeling pretty apathetic, or I think it's like 23%
00:09:05.760 feeling pretty apathetic. And I don't think it's the BC Conservative voters who are feeling apathetic
00:09:10.480 about voting, because it's a change election. When you're voting for change, you tend to be more
00:09:15.040 excited than the people just voting for the mediocre status quo. And to even describe the BC NDP
00:09:20.620 is mediocre, is doing them a big favor. Eby, I think, is just not going to connect with voters
00:09:27.100 the same way John Horgan did. There was another poll that came out, I think I talked about a bit,
00:09:32.100 at least on Twitter, that 17% of 2020 NDP voters are going towards the Conservatives. And it's because
00:09:38.680 David Eby does not like blue collar people. He rejects their votes. He wants downtown progressives
00:09:45.300 to vote for him. And he probably captured that vote somewhat, although many of those people might go to
00:09:49.940 the Greens because Eby is now wavering on certain policies that he used to stand strong on the
00:09:55.200 progressive position on. But who's, what plumber, what small business owners are going to show up
00:10:00.840 and vote for David Eby? You're driving home at night, you're tired, you're really going to pull
00:10:04.860 over and pull the switch for David Eby? No, either you're not voting or you're voting for the
00:10:09.340 Conservatives. Another significant portion of the electorate in this election is people who didn't
00:10:14.060 vote last time. And 48% of those people in the last Main Street poll I looked at were voting
00:10:20.680 Conservative. I actually want to go see if I can find that now, because that was very interesting
00:10:25.680 that they ended up going so heavily towards Conservatives. And when I say 48% of them are
00:10:31.200 going Conservative, I don't mean that then like another 30% are going NDP and then 10% are going
00:10:37.540 Green. 48% were going Conservative, 13% were going NDP, and like a bunch of people still didn't know
00:10:43.900 where they were going. I just pulled up the poll now. In this recent one, as people are becoming
00:10:48.720 more decided, 47.6% of people who didn't vote last time are going Conservative, 20% are going EB,
00:10:55.340 and 4% are going Green, 22.2% are still undecided. That's very good to see. And again, in this poll,
00:11:03.980 it shows again that a large amount of people, only 66% of 2020 NDP voters are voting for David
00:11:12.880 EB's version of the BCNDP. I've said this before, and usually a party goes into the next election
00:11:21.000 with at least 70, 75% of the people who voted for them last time willing to vote for them next time.
00:11:28.080 I think that EB in reality probably only has about 60%, 55% of people who showed up last time,
00:11:34.620 definitely showing up this time. They're going to work hard to even get over that 70, 75% mark
00:11:40.560 if they even get to that point. Anyways, but that's just a small election update. I'm having
00:11:47.180 to go out door knocking right now, so I'm making this video feel a little bit more rushed, but it's
00:11:51.700 because I got to go get out there and actually hit the doors, make sure people are going to be showing
00:11:55.860 up. This is a safe riding Abbotsford South, but we want every single riding to have sky-high
00:12:01.340 Conservative turnout because it shouldn't just be a big win on C count. I want it to be a massive,
00:12:07.400 popular vote count. I want to see if we can punch over 50%, and we can absolutely do it.
00:12:12.340 If you're watching this video right now and you're in BC, consider volunteering. Reach out to your local
00:12:17.620 campaign. Get on the doors. Get on the phones. Do all that great stuff. Drop off lawn signs.
00:12:22.740 It's all very needed. Anyways, have a great one, everyone. I'll see you next time.