The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - BC Conservatives projected to win majority over Eby's NDP

00:00:00.000 As I have been saying for the past few months, things are really not looking good for Premier

00:00:05.880 David Eby in British Columbia. Not only was his party losing ground for the past several months

00:00:12.660 because of their incompetent policy and arrogant demeanor to anybody questioning what they were

00:00:18.040 doing, but now they are actually well behind the BC Conservatives in the latest Main Street

00:00:24.040 research projections. They are going to lose to the BC Conservatives 40 seats to 52 seats. The

00:00:31.040 Conservatives getting a majority of, I think, like six or seven seats. Very good for them. And this was

00:00:38.040 all very, very predictable. The BC NDP, like I was saying, have put on this arrogant attitude that

00:00:46.160 nobody is good enough to question them. And that's why the past few months of the campaign have just

00:00:51.860 been mudslinging. Obviously, attacks are just a par for the course thing in politics. American 0.70

00:00:58.440 politics, Canadian politics, European politics, you attack your opponents for things that you think

00:01:03.840 are bad about them. You know, ways that they seem incompetent on policy, things they've said or done.

00:01:10.800 But the problem with the BC NDP is that by pulling up tweets from a BC Conservative candidate from five

00:01:17.700 years ago or whatever, that only matters to voters if you've been doing at least a semi-good job as the

00:01:25.900 government. Right now, the BC NDP have made life worse in every single aspect for the people of

00:01:34.060 British Columbia. Crimes weigh up. Affordability is terrible. The housing crisis continues apace.

00:01:41.280 They're handing out free drugs to addicts and then attacking people who say that maybe we should have

00:01:46.820 involuntary rehab programs. And then two seconds ago, they decided to say that maybe we'll do

00:01:52.240 involuntary rehab programs. They're not just bad at their jobs. They're also liars. And that's why the

00:01:58.900 BC Conservatives have this projected 52-seat majority. The mainstream research model is currently giving

00:02:06.000 them a 74.2% chance of winning a majority, only a 22.4% chance to the BC NDP, and 3.1% chance that the

00:02:15.820 BC NDP even win, they'd be sharing it with the Green Party. I even think that this is underselling

00:02:22.560 how well the BC Conservatives are going to be doing on election day. This has happened in many

00:02:27.700 jurisdictions before. It doesn't matter that the BC NDP are better funded than the Conservatives

00:02:32.460 because they got $8 million from taxpayers, where the BC Conservatives only got $200,000.

00:02:37.660 The problem is it doesn't matter how much you spend. If people don't want you in office and they're

00:02:42.400 not going to vote for you, that's just how it is. You can't spend your way, do enough media appearances

00:02:47.760 to make people think that the garbage that you've been serving them is actually quite good. People 0.94

00:02:53.420 think that David Eby is incompetent. He frankly has a weak personality and comes off like he's always

00:02:59.620 talking down to everybody. And their entire campaign strategy has been that the Conservatives

00:03:05.220 are bad somehow. Okay, well, everything sucks in the province. So that's not scaring anybody that 0.99

00:03:11.240 the Conservatives are going to be wildly different from you. That's kind of what people want. But I

00:03:16.380 just want to dig into some of the details to these polls, because it's been interesting how fast

00:03:22.100 voters have been shifting from undecided to decided and how much that's been leaning towards

00:03:28.000 the BC Conservative Party. Because three polls ago, the Main Street Research projections showed or their

00:03:35.060 poll showed about only 19 or like up to 19% of people were undecided on who they were going to vote

00:03:41.720 for, which is a massive amount of people, usually 30 days out from an election, only five or six percent

00:03:46.980 of people are undecided. And since about three or four days ago, that number, I believe is actually

00:03:53.500 17%. Another poll showed 19. That has fallen all the way down to only 9% of people are undecided.

00:04:00.840 And the poll is starting to lean far more heavily towards the BC Conservatives.

00:04:07.540 Right now, the polling projections with the undecideds added in, it's 40% BC Conservatives,

00:04:15.860 38% NDP, 9% undecided and 9% Green Party. There's also four saying they're going to vote for another

00:04:22.860 party. I see those people probably splitting towards the BC Conservatives, because a lot of them might not

00:04:28.380 be aware of what the election dynamics are. As crazy as it sounds, there's going to be a lot of

00:04:33.960 people who still think this is an Andrew Wilkinson versus David Eby election. A lot of people hate

00:04:38.660 politics, and they just close it out of their lives until the week before the election. The NDP,

00:04:44.380 especially, being below 40%, is just a death knell for them. As the incumbent party, as the party that won

00:04:54.140 like 46% of the vote back in 2020, having only 38% of people on your side, yes, decided to pump them up

00:05:02.900 to like 41 or so. But the fact that you are not getting captured and automatically 40% of the

00:05:09.540 electorate that's being pulled is bad. Right now, when you actually go by the issue by issue polling,

00:05:15.860 the BC NDP is underwater significantly on all of them. On drugs, I think 78% of BC residents

00:05:22.800 disapprove of what they're doing on affordability. Like 50% of people think they're, or it was like

00:05:28.860 70% of people think they're doing a bad job. I think it was like a net negative 50. There's no

00:05:33.820 big issue that the BC NDP pull well on. I think the only issue that they were actually above water on

00:05:39.360 was intergovernmental relations. So people think they do a good job interfacing with Justin Trudeau,

00:05:45.560 which doesn't really mean anything. That's basically just saying, do you think David Eby's

00:05:49.440 friendly with Trudeau and they work well together? Sure. But you don't want them to work well

00:05:54.440 together because Justin Trudeau is equally as incompetent as David Eby. And they both support

00:05:59.080 some of the most unpopular policies in the country, safe supply drugs and the carbon tax.

00:06:05.280 That's another thing that David Eby's pretending that he's not in favor of. He's going to get rid of

00:06:09.780 the consumer carbon tax potentially now, but really he's just going to shift it even more heavily onto

00:06:14.360 businesses, which means you're still going to be paying it anyways, because no business is just going to

00:06:18.440 go bankrupt to pay the tax. They're going to pass the cost of the tax on to consumers, at least

00:06:24.260 partially. But I just want to go down to some of the dropdown menus here to look at the detailed

00:06:29.980 results. I think that this is quite interesting, how things have shaken out. The Vancouver Island

00:06:35.780 numbers shift around pretty wildly from day to day. So some days it shows the BC Conservatives ahead,

00:06:41.320 sometimes it shows the NDP ahead. But what I mainly want to focus on here is the Vancouver numbers.

00:06:46.640 The Conservatives are currently leading in Vancouver and the Vancouver metro area.

00:06:52.220 That is not that surprising because they've been neck and neck for quite a while. And this is

00:06:57.840 effectively a tie, 39.9 to 40.7. But again, for the BC NDP to win, just like they beat the BC Liberals,

00:07:07.060 they need to be five or six points ahead of the Conservatives. They cannot have it be a slugging

00:07:12.400 match in Vancouver because the BC Conservatives are going to dominate the rest of Vancouver or the

00:07:17.620 rest of British Columbia. And on Vancouver Island, I think they do have a chance of winning three or

00:07:22.120 four seats. They have one in the safe category right now. Nanaimo looks like it can flip. And

00:07:27.620 depending on the poll, there's like three or four other seats also in play, or at least in punching

00:07:33.000 distance for the Conservatives. But yeah, so the rest of BC, the Conservatives are just running up the

00:07:37.440 score. Vancouver, if the Conservatives just edge out the NDP by a little bit, and then they grab up a

00:07:44.060 couple seats on Vancouver Island, they win that 52-seat majority. Because like that's like the NDP

00:07:50.180 will have not performed, overperformed in any region in the entire province. Another thing I want to note

00:07:57.700 here, and I'll try and zoom in a little bit more, is that the BC Conservatives here are winning men

00:08:05.080 by way more than the NDP are winning women. It's just one of those things that's happened in modern

00:08:10.600 politics. More women tend to vote for center-left parties. Men tend to vote for center-right parties.

00:08:15.900 And although more women vote than men, the thing is when the when the BC Conservatives are basically 0.60

00:08:21.040 winning 50% of men, and the NDP is only winning about 45% of women, that's going to overcome

00:08:26.760 that gap. Plus, I also really don't believe, like I was saying before, that the NDP are going to even

00:08:34.080 be able to achieve their numbers that they have here. A Leger poll from like a month and a half ago

00:08:38.960 showed that the top emotion people were feeling about the election was apathy. Yes, BC United was

00:08:45.100 still around in that poll, and BC United was basically the apathy party. But even if I assumed that all 9%

00:08:52.640 of United supporters out of that 32% people feeling apathetic were all United, well, there's still

00:08:59.700 about, you know, 24% of people who are still feeling pretty apathetic, or I think it's like 23%

00:09:05.760 feeling pretty apathetic. And I don't think it's the BC Conservative voters who are feeling apathetic

00:09:10.480 about voting, because it's a change election. When you're voting for change, you tend to be more

00:09:15.040 excited than the people just voting for the mediocre status quo. And to even describe the BC NDP

00:09:20.620 is mediocre, is doing them a big favor. Eby, I think, is just not going to connect with voters

00:09:27.100 the same way John Horgan did. There was another poll that came out, I think I talked about a bit,

00:09:32.100 at least on Twitter, that 17% of 2020 NDP voters are going towards the Conservatives. And it's because

00:09:38.680 David Eby does not like blue collar people. He rejects their votes. He wants downtown progressives

00:09:45.300 to vote for him. And he probably captured that vote somewhat, although many of those people might go to

00:09:49.940 the Greens because Eby is now wavering on certain policies that he used to stand strong on the

00:09:55.200 progressive position on. But who's, what plumber, what small business owners are going to show up

00:10:00.840 and vote for David Eby? You're driving home at night, you're tired, you're really going to pull

00:10:04.860 over and pull the switch for David Eby? No, either you're not voting or you're voting for the

00:10:09.340 Conservatives. Another significant portion of the electorate in this election is people who didn't

00:10:14.060 vote last time. And 48% of those people in the last Main Street poll I looked at were voting

00:10:20.680 Conservative. I actually want to go see if I can find that now, because that was very interesting

00:10:25.680 that they ended up going so heavily towards Conservatives. And when I say 48% of them are

00:10:31.200 going Conservative, I don't mean that then like another 30% are going NDP and then 10% are going

00:10:37.540 Green. 48% were going Conservative, 13% were going NDP, and like a bunch of people still didn't know

00:10:43.900 where they were going. I just pulled up the poll now. In this recent one, as people are becoming

00:10:48.720 more decided, 47.6% of people who didn't vote last time are going Conservative, 20% are going EB,

00:10:55.340 and 4% are going Green, 22.2% are still undecided. That's very good to see. And again, in this poll,

00:11:03.980 it shows again that a large amount of people, only 66% of 2020 NDP voters are voting for David

00:11:12.880 EB's version of the BCNDP. I've said this before, and usually a party goes into the next election

00:11:21.000 with at least 70, 75% of the people who voted for them last time willing to vote for them next time.

00:11:28.080 I think that EB in reality probably only has about 60%, 55% of people who showed up last time,

00:11:34.620 definitely showing up this time. They're going to work hard to even get over that 70, 75% mark

00:11:40.560 if they even get to that point. Anyways, but that's just a small election update. I'm having

00:11:47.180 to go out door knocking right now, so I'm making this video feel a little bit more rushed, but it's

00:11:51.700 because I got to go get out there and actually hit the doors, make sure people are going to be showing

00:11:55.860 up. This is a safe riding Abbotsford South, but we want every single riding to have sky-high

00:12:01.340 Conservative turnout because it shouldn't just be a big win on C count. I want it to be a massive,

00:12:07.400 popular vote count. I want to see if we can punch over 50%, and we can absolutely do it.

00:12:12.340 If you're watching this video right now and you're in BC, consider volunteering. Reach out to your local

00:12:17.620 campaign. Get on the doors. Get on the phones. Do all that great stuff. Drop off lawn signs.

00:12:22.740 It's all very needed. Anyways, have a great one, everyone. I'll see you next time.

The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - September 28, 2024

BC Conservatives projected to win majority over Eby's NDP

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