In this episode of the Wyatt Claypool Show, I discuss the latest polls, the debate, and why I think the media is out of touch with the average voter. I also talk about why I don't want to talk about polls that are bad for the Conservatives.
00:00:00.000Hello, everyone. Welcome back to the Wyatt Claypool Show. And we have a lot to talk about today in regards to the BC provincial election. New polls, old polls. I want to go over the debate again because I think I was proven very correct about how the average voter was actually going to react to each of the leaders' performances, as well as I just want to talk about the general direction of this provincial election.
00:00:26.740But before I get into this, I want to remind you all to like this video, subscribe, comment if you notice anything that you want to comment about because I actually do read the comments. I always mention this stuff way at the end of the video, so excuse me if I mention it now because I am terrible at self-promotion.
00:00:43.240Anyways, before I get into talking about the leaders' debate, because I think it reflects why we're seeing a big poll balance for the BC Conservatives, I want to talk about one old poll I had a lot of people on social media, as well as in the comments of past videos I've made, asking me about the Leger poll.
00:01:02.020The problem with this Leger poll and why I didn't talk about it is not because it was bad for the Conservatives. I will talk about polls that are bad for the Conservatives, just as I have in the past.
00:01:13.040The reason I have not commented on this Leger poll other than on social media just to say I don't think it's a good poll is, like I just said there, it's not a good poll.
00:01:22.020Leger does put out good polls, but the problem with online polls, it's a lot of people voluntarily taking the poll.
00:01:27.640When I say voluntarily, it's not like there's a portal on Twitter where you can go and take it yourself, like you can't target yourself towards this poll.
00:01:35.980But Leger uses an online panel where they randomly serve up to the polls to people who are willing to just take surveys online.
00:01:44.540And those tend to skew very young because you get gift cards for filling out the polls.
00:01:48.540And that's not bad, you need to offer some incentives so people are actually willing to do product surveys and whatnot.
00:01:53.740The problem with the Leger poll and why I don't take it as a serious measure of how this election is going to go in British Columbia is women under 35, as Chris from the Great Canadian Bagel podcast pointed out to me, were severely oversampled.
00:02:09.000You can't oversample any demographic group if you know through decades of past elections, they don't vote in large numbers compared to other groups.
00:02:17.500In this poll sample, and women under 35 tend to lean heavily towards the BC NDP, just as middle-aged men lean very heavily towards the Conservative Party.
00:02:28.900And so this demographic group, women under 35, were like almost double what they should usually be in any turnout model.
00:02:36.620That you assume that people under 35, because they don't vote that much, should be about 20 to 25% of the electorate.
00:02:43.200And in this poll, it was like women under 35 were like 20% themselves.
00:02:47.940So naturally, it pushed up the BC NDP.
00:02:51.420And if you looked at some of the other numbers, the Conservatives were doing well in regions they usually aren't doing as well.
00:02:56.200And the NDP was doing worse in regions that they're not, that they usually do well in.
00:03:38.320I finally got my mic working properly now, so it doesn't sound like you're listening to me through a fast food speaker.
00:03:44.400But I want to talk about the debate again, not to go over it, but to talk about the media's reactions and why I think the media is so out of touch with the average voter.
00:03:55.020Because I was one of the very few people, even on the more center-right media, who was, or more center-right to right media, like online media,
00:04:03.460who thought that John Rusted did a really good job.
00:04:06.300Every single leader, when they go into a debate, has a different goal than the other leaders.
00:04:12.360John Rusted had to come off like the steady, professional man who is speaking to the issues that you care about who's ready to be premier.
00:05:13.820It was like someone's teenage son on stage debating them on whether or not they should do their homework,
00:05:20.040and David Eby thinks that homework's a big waste of time, so he's rolling his eyes, jabbing at people.
00:05:25.480Oh, you never know which John Rusted's going to show up to a debate.
00:05:28.960It was one of the stupidest lines of the night, because John is the most consistent person I've ever seen in my life in terms of performance.
00:05:35.420John is the same in person as he is on a podcast, as he is at a rally.
00:05:39.960And David Eby's staring at people this way, not looking at the camera, jabbing at people,
00:05:47.540pretending that he's in a position where he can criticize others, was utterly ridiculous.
00:05:52.760I talked to so many people at the door and in public yesterday in Port Moody, Burquitlam,
00:06:34.280It allows us to actually afford the things that we need, you know, be able to pay for things, generate energy, you know, build homes.
00:06:41.660She said that she stumped against logging LNG.
00:06:44.780She said LNG was worse than coal, which was utterly insane.
00:06:47.940But the people in the Politburo that is the legacy media in British Columbia love David Eby and Sonia First in those performances because they said left-wing things.
00:06:58.660They think that him razzing Rustad and then saying like lefty things in response to Rustad's very like appealing, universally appealing conservative common sense policies was somehow good.
00:07:22.740He thought he was he was just smug and superior the entire time.
00:07:26.040Sonia First to know was sanctimonious, annoying, and nobody knew why she was there.
00:07:31.220She thinks for some reason we can run an economy on farmer's market jam.
00:07:35.200It's just this kind of like like small community type socialism that she offers, whereas David Eby's offering the big city bloated socialism.
00:07:44.560And then John's there saying, how about we cut your taxes?
00:07:47.780So that's the setup to me wanting to quickly talk about this article that reads from the Vancouver Sun.
00:07:54.880I always thought all the Sun newspapers were supposed to be a little bit more to the center right, maybe.
00:09:00.140But if you go down the article later on, halfway through the article, like bottom third of the article, you know, in golf, this is the 15th hole that they start saying that.
00:09:10.260Well, Rustad had a good moment on that.
00:09:12.040And he did say this, and Eby didn't have a good response.
00:09:15.140And he did talk about this and that, and Sonia and David didn't mention it.
00:09:18.800I'm like, yeah, you talked about things that people liked.
00:09:21.240So even in the articles where they're trying to slam David, sorry, John Rustad, even then they still had to admit he was doing a good job.
00:09:27.680And then when you read the comments, there's so many people saying, did you guys watch a different debate than I did?
00:09:33.140Because I thought John was absolutely fine.
00:09:35.600And David was annoying to the point where I shut off the debate before it was over because he wouldn't let people talk.
00:09:42.000And when you're the premier who has a reputation for being high handed and in a leader's debate where you only have to respect three people, the moderator, Sonia and John, and you couldn't do it.
00:09:52.260You're really playing to the negative stereotype about yourself.
00:09:56.080And the reason why I'm going back to this is that we, like I was detecting what happened, like I was predicting what was going to happen, we are seeing a polling bump for the BC Conservatives.
00:10:09.440Second, this is the Main Street tracking poll, which is now showing that with undecideds included, the Conservatives are currently capturing 41% of the electorate, people likely or saying that they're likely to vote, and the NDP is grabbing up 38%.
00:10:24.7808% still undecided, 3% say another party, which could be they're voting for an independent, and also some people who are saying another party are probably also just undecided.
00:13:11.700And that's what the undecided included, who are the second place.
00:13:15.120People who are undecided are the second biggest category in didn't vote.
00:13:19.320The NDP are grabbing up triflingly small bits of the didn't vote category.
00:13:24.460Right now in British Columbia, we are in a change election.
00:13:28.000And as much as the NDP wants this to be a referendum on the character of John Restad or some of his candidates, because don't you know they said something 10 years ago, even though the NDP is the party that kicked out a Jewish cabinet minister or pressured her out of their party and cabinet because she didn't hate Israel.
00:13:44.980Even though they actually have legitimate hate problems they do not deal with at all, they're going to try and cast versions at the Conservatives.
00:13:52.320And this is not going to change the trajectory of the election.
00:13:56.240The election is, it's basically a referendum.
00:13:59.360Do you like David Eby and his government?
00:14:01.380And do you think they're actually going to do a better job in the next four years, or do you not?
00:14:05.640That is actually the only question in this election.
00:14:08.700People can try and make it about a bunch of other esoteric reasons or specific policies where maybe the NDP will look a little bit better because they're willing to put more money towards a certain project that doesn't matter that much in the grand scheme of the health of the province.
00:14:22.480It's just, do you think they're doing a good job or not?
00:14:25.460They can't short circuit this election.
00:14:28.540And that's where I think that the Conservatives, even in this poll, where they're leading the NDP by more than 3%, it's a little bit less than 4%, but you get my point.
00:14:37.300Now, they are going to win, not just because they're, they're not going to win by 3%.
00:14:42.360I guarantee, unless there is a turnout collapse and just something goes wrong, wasn't good enough GOTV, although I think that that's going fine for the Conservatives.
00:14:51.900Because I'm not directly involved in HQ for that party, or I don't talk to people on a daily basis.
00:14:57.500But what's going on right now that's going to help is that there's no reason to show up and vote if you voted NDP last time, but you don't like the Conservatives.
00:15:05.820Not liking the Conservatives isn't enough of a reason to show up and vote.
00:15:09.560And that's why David Eby failed so hard on the stage.
00:15:12.140He gave you no reason to think that he could be any different than the NDP over the last seven years.
00:15:16.340He's only been Premier for two years, and I agree he is the worst possible person to be a leader, but he hasn't even been doing the Kamala Harris thing in the U.S. of pretending that he's a fresh face.
00:15:27.500No, he just pretends that his record's actually good, you're just too stupid to notice it, which is not a great pitch to voters.
00:15:33.200Whereas John, when he's on stage identifying problems, yes, he's not speaking with the passion of Caesar taking power in Rome or something like that.
00:15:44.180But what the man's doing, or whatever the speech after Julius Caesar was stabbed to death, his famous, very fiery speeches.
00:15:51.580But the thing is, he's telling you about problems that you identify yourself on the street, and because he's doing that, you trust him.
00:15:59.000And Eby and First Ino refused to acknowledge problems.
00:16:03.140Every time they started talking, Rust had started trying to talk about real issues, or the moderator would bring it up.
00:16:09.080First Ino would try and talk about climate change, and then Eby would try and talk about how the Conservatives are bad.
00:16:16.440It's a losing narrative, because you are running on the idea that we suck, but the other guys could suck more.
00:16:22.140And we are at currently the bottom of the barrel.
00:16:24.760No doubt the Conservatives are going to be 100 times better than the NDP.
00:16:27.600But there's also zero chance they could be worse, even if they were only a little bit better.
00:16:31.960They're still better than you guys, and I doubt it's going to be just a little bit better.
00:16:37.140Anyways, that's pretty much it for me today.
00:16:39.900I think in the last 10 days, it's just going to turn out to get the vote type campaign for both of the parties, the major parties.
00:16:47.940But I think what's actually going to end up happening is if the NDP start going too negative in these last 10 days, which I guarantee they will,
00:16:54.640they're just going to turn out even more Conservative voters, because it's going to become that screw you reaction,
00:17:00.660stop telling me I'm not allowed to vote for these people, because you guys are the ones who failed.
00:17:05.240You guys are the ones who can't deliver health care.
00:17:07.780You guys are the ones who ruined the economy.
00:17:09.640You guys are the ones who are making me pay more tax dollars to hire more public employees who are doing less work.
00:17:15.400So, we're done here, and that's basically, I think, the attitude of most BC voters.