The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - BC Election in a deadlock

00:00:00.000 Well this has been a weird election. BC's provincial election is still ongoing as we

00:00:06.940 currently speak because it is also the closest election this province has ever had. Depending

00:00:12.900 on how two of the tightest ridings go when mainland ballots come in, either it could be

00:00:18.660 a slim conservative majority or it could be a tie race inside of the legislature between the BCNDP

00:00:25.940 and the conservatives and then it would just depend on what the Greens are willing to do

00:00:31.260 and although it seems obvious that the Greens would then partner up with the NDP, the problem

00:00:36.280 is that the NDP and David Eby have made a lot of more center-right promises like agreeing to get

00:00:42.420 rid of the carbon tax and involuntary care that the Greens are completely against. So really what

00:00:48.500 I'm trying to say to you all right now is oh my goodness this was the craziest election I've ever

00:00:53.620 seen in my entire life and I don't know what's going to happen at all. Not only do I not know

00:00:58.400 what the results are going to be, in one year's time, two years time, maybe just six months,

00:01:04.180 there could be another election and I'm going to go through a lot of stuff here but before I do that

00:01:10.340 hey guys if you watch this channel make sure you support it by liking this video and subscribing to

00:01:16.560 the channel. More than 75% of people who watch any given video are not current subscribers and so if you

00:01:22.600 watch more than one or two videos make sure you subscribe so you don't miss the others that I

00:01:26.620 end up putting out. So right now the main riding that everyone's talking about although there is a

00:01:33.600 second one and it is almost as equally close as the first but this one has a little bit more going on

00:01:39.840 is Juan de Fuca Malahat. This current riding out on southern Vancouver Island is currently being led by

00:01:49.800 the BCNDP by 23 votes. 23 votes. I actually believe it's 20 votes because they say the BC elections count

00:01:57.660 is a little bit more accurate and maybe the CBC hasn't updated in a little bit. This is the CBC's

00:02:02.620 results tracker. There is 23 votes separating Dana and Marina here and I'm not going to attempt to

00:02:09.940 say their last names because I am not that good at pronouncing Eastern European last names.

00:02:15.060 The good thing for the Conservative Party of British Columbia is although they are currently trailing in

00:02:20.880 seats and technically that means they're disadvantaged on these recounts, when you actually start looking

00:02:26.800 at the nitty-gritty details of specific ridings in play, it's actually clear that this riding is more

00:02:33.600 likely to go Conservative after we start counting the 49,000 mail-in ballots that were submitted after

00:02:41.120 advanced voting had ended but before the actual voting date so they had basically just been collected

00:02:46.100 up and not counted on election night because they were postmarked to arrive and the good thing is

00:02:51.320 that these votes advantage the BC Conservatives. One, because you're more likely to vote mail-in if you

00:02:59.220 live in a rural area. So although this means if you broke up all 49,000 votes among every single

00:03:06.160 riding, all 93 ridings, and there is going to be also some other provisional votes in there, people who

00:03:12.000 went to the electoral district office to cast their vote, which you're allowed to do rather than going to

00:03:16.300 a polling station, those will also be in there but the vast majority of them are mail-ins. So if you

00:03:21.240 just divided that number up between all 93 ridings, that would be 526 votes. But I can assure you

00:03:29.300 really tight downtown Vancouver ridings and Richmond ridings, they're not going to have that many mail-in

00:03:34.780 votes. When you can literally walk down the street and cast a ballot in advanced voting place or your

00:03:40.620 local poll station, what's the point of sending in a mail-in vote? So not only are they going to lean

00:03:46.200 more towards the rural areas, which Juan de Fuca Malahat has a lot of, it also is going to lean

00:03:53.780 more where there's a lot of military. And this is close to where there is a Navy base on Vancouver

00:03:59.520 Island. So you're going to have a lot of people who, whether they're on a ship out at sea, or it's just

00:04:04.500 because they basically have to be active duty a lot, they will just simply mail in a vote rather than

00:04:09.660 going to a polling station because either they live on base or they're too busy. And so I think

00:04:15.120 with only a 20-23 vote difference, depending on what it really is, I think the Conservatives are

00:04:20.720 going to be able to pull this riding out. And when you look at the overall numbers in this current race,

00:04:28.820 we see that there are currently 40 elected MLAs in each of the two parties. And then the NDP are

00:04:38.800 leading in six and the Conservatives are leading in five. And most of those are by a margin of error

00:04:44.160 or there's enough of a, there's a close enough difference in the vote that they're going to have

00:04:49.940 to do. They're going to have to wait until mail-ins come in and then they're probably going to have to

00:04:53.200 do recounts. At least two of them are going to recount Malahat as well as Surrey Center.

00:04:58.300 And so if the Conservatives can pull out two more ridings that the NDP are leading in,

00:05:03.980 and the two closest ridings between the two parties, if you were to say the most likely to

00:05:09.220 flip to least likely, the two most likely to flip are currently held by the NDP. And if they flip to

00:05:14.660 the Conservatives, the Conservatives can get a bare, bare majority of 47 seats. And then it turns into

00:05:21.280 crazy games on who's then going to be the Speaker of the House and whether or not the, like the

00:05:27.920 Conservatives with 46 seats could basically almost pass things and then have the Speaker always tie

00:05:33.900 break the votes, which is not a sustainable situation, but it will do. At the very least,

00:05:41.100 even if the NDP ends up getting barely enough seats, and the only, I think the maximum the NDP

00:05:47.380 can get is 46. Even in that scenario, the problem that they're going to have is I could see a lot

00:05:53.020 of BC NDP MLAs thinking about switching sides to the Conservatives sometime soon, because there's a

00:06:00.020 lot of South Asian NDP MLAs in Surrey who just saw what a few of their own people who by the projections

00:06:07.800 were supposed to easily cruise to victory, got absolutely clobbered because of the SOGI 1-2-3 issue.

00:06:14.840 The Conservatives are against it. The NDP are in favor of it. So that's why you had in a riding

00:06:20.080 like Surrey North, the NDP's education minister got destroyed, just destroyed by somebody who is

00:06:27.840 apparently based on the projections. And I don't blame the projections. Surrey is an incredibly hard

00:06:32.100 place to ballpark because South Asian people, which is a large portion of the Surrey population,

00:06:36.940 they don't answer polls. So it's hard to know what the general vibe of the ridings are.

00:06:40.900 And in Surrey North, the Conservative candidate was supposed to lose by like 12%, 15%. He won

00:06:50.080 resoundingly. He has like a 1,500 vote lead. That one, it was easily called on election night. And I

00:06:57.360 think that there's going to be a lot of guys knowing in that community, okay, if I go along with the SOGI

00:07:02.860 stuff, the Conservatives are going to come back next election with more money, with more professionalized

00:07:08.600 campaign teams, because naturally new parties are like all over the place with the organization.

00:07:13.140 I was on the ground. I can attest to a lot of campaigns being very garage banned because of

00:07:17.980 lack of money. And then it's also hard to get volunteers because you don't have a base of

00:07:22.080 volunteers from last election because you weren't really a party from last time, that they're going

00:07:26.360 to get destroyed, demolished. So these guys might want to think about crossing the floor, or at least

00:07:31.940 depending on what the issue is, voting with the Conservatives to get their community off their backs

00:07:37.720 on issues of education, drugs, and crime. And then a lot of these people running in Surrey are what I

00:07:43.860 would call non-ideological candidates for the NDP. Not very many socialists in the Asian community,

00:07:50.960 not many trade unionists in that community, a lot of small business owners, people who are socially

00:07:55.700 conservative. So that's going to be something also interesting to look at. So this could literally go

00:08:01.740 anyway right now. And I just now want to bring up for you guys Surrey Center, because this is a

00:08:08.180 crazy riding going on here. There's a Communist Party candidate that got 1%. That's funny.

00:08:14.040 But Zeeshan Wallen here is also only trailing the NDP by 93 votes. And again, depending on how

00:08:22.640 mail-in votes come in, maybe there's going to be fewer because it is a more urban suburban riding.

00:08:27.860 And depending on how they adjudicate certain votes that came in, whether the lawyers get involved and

00:08:33.120 have to push out things from the voter tally, you could see a lot of different things happening here.

00:08:38.480 Because I'm not sure if you guys were aware of, there was this nutty thing going on with telephone

00:08:43.500 voting. On like the last day, because certain polling stations were closed, they were calling

00:08:48.160 people. And I heard it wasn't just voluntary people calling in to vote. I heard that they were

00:08:52.780 calling people and saying, you haven't voted. Do you want to vote? Just get your voter ID

00:08:57.240 card out and read us your number or whatever and read your driver's license number or whatever to

00:09:01.780 us and then tell us who you're going to vote like you're ordering a pizza at Domino's.

00:09:05.140 If that was going on, which I had heard had been going on, dude, some of these ridings that are

00:09:10.020 super close, they might have to recall the entire riding. Because if there's 500 people who voted by

00:09:15.280 telephone, and the person who won only won by like 100, 150 votes, dude, that can't stand up like this

00:09:21.020 entire election might as much as as much as people were kind of joking about it, this entire election

00:09:26.180 might end up in the Supreme Court. And another rub here, actually, I forgot to mention, but I've

00:09:32.040 mentioned it previous videos, mail-in votes, according to Main Street Research, who has been

00:09:36.560 proven to be very good at polling projections. Yes, they didn't get all the ridings right. But in a

00:09:41.640 crazy election like this, the fact that they basically called it a tie ball game, and it's basically a

00:09:47.040 tie ball game proves that their general numbers are probably decently accurate. And they showed from

00:09:53.000 poll to poll, the last one had a 9% lead, but some of them had a little bit higher, a little bit lower,

00:09:58.380 the conservatives were actually leading heavily, or at least by a pretty good margin with mail-in

00:10:04.020 votes. So when you look at Malahat, and it's a rural riding, where rural people tend to vote more

00:10:09.460 conservative, and there's there's a Navy base in the riding and mail-in votes were already supposedly

00:10:14.820 leading conservative. That's a good chance that this thing is going to get very, very interesting,

00:10:20.200 very, very soon. Now, to end this video off, because I do want to talk about this, again,

00:10:25.520 we don't even know what's happening in this election until the 26th, which in and of itself

00:10:30.520 is nice, because now everyone doesn't have to get stressed out. We can all know that it's so ongoing

00:10:36.300 that you're never going to have that sad upset on election night. We get to extend the election

00:10:43.040 season even longer. But I love fringe candidates. I love people who vote, like run for fringe parties.

00:10:50.840 They scare me a little bit. If you're running for a party nobody's ever heard of, you seem like the

00:10:56.440 type of person who might commit crimes. I'm just kidding here. But you know what I mean? I never

00:11:01.280 understand people who do this. And I love when they put up signs. And I was in Surrey, what riding was

00:11:07.680 Surrey Panorama. And I was just walking around. And I actually found one of these signs just on the

00:11:13.100 side of the road. Obviously, no one was probably going to come back for it. I love this stuff that

00:11:18.020 people are like the person running for the freedom party right now, Armajeet Hamry or whatever,

00:11:25.460 running the stop. So do you want you three on it, which I can get behind. I think I heard that this

00:11:30.060 party was being like run by like some, you know, person whose like main issues were like chemtrails

00:11:35.720 or whatever. And nonsense. It's like, goodness, I never understand people who run for fringe parties.

00:11:44.200 There's I understand like PPC, you know, conservatives in 2021 weren't conservative enough. So I'm going

00:11:49.800 to show them by running PPC. There's a goal you're trying to achieve with that. Or, you know, as much

00:11:55.000 as it's a big kick in the face, there was a lot of independents who ran in this in this election,

00:12:00.440 who were either former United MLAs, or they were people who wanted the conservative nomination,

00:12:07.020 were not given the conservative nomination. So they ran out of spite to trip up our conservative

00:12:11.460 candidate, which actually probably lost us two or three seats in this election. And that was like

00:12:16.460 a true vote split. There was one guy who was running around saying he was the conservative candidate,

00:12:21.920 trying to basically blackmail the party into just making him the candidate, because either you make

00:12:26.960 me the candidate or I screw you over. And maybe we should have picked them. I don't know. That's

00:12:32.500 really not my call is I don't know how it all broke down. But like, that's a different thing. At least

00:12:38.060 they're at least they're achieving the goal of being spiteful jerks who are just trying to hurt us. But

00:12:43.400 like, you know, you're running for like the freedom party. Like, I don't know what this is. Are you running

00:12:51.040 with enough money and funds that you're trying to get an issue in front and center? Oftentimes, I find

00:12:56.280 these things are like vehicles for people with like really big egos who like their names on stuff.

00:13:01.380 It's like Kevin J. Johnston type, Chris Sky type people. Anyways, that was a dumb little side,

00:13:09.300 you know, side thing to mention there. I want to do a whole thing on the psychology of third party

00:13:14.940 candidates at some point or fringe party candidates specifically, because to win as a third party or

00:13:20.480 fringe candidate, you got to have money, you got to have like money oozing out of every facet of your

00:13:25.680 campaign, you got to be maxing out the amount of money you can spend, because people are already

00:13:30.180 predisposed to not knowing who you are, probably you got either got to have the biggest name ever,

00:13:34.700 or you got to have like the biggest campaign ever, that people actually come out and vote free,

00:13:39.560 where actually smaller parties do well as places like New Brunswick did the people's alliance that

00:13:44.320 actually elected a few people over the last couple of elections, they're not much of a thing this time,

00:13:48.640 because it's small ridings, and you don't need that much money. And you don't need that big a team

00:13:52.420 to blanket the riding with campaign literature, knock every single door, advertise. But in these

00:13:57.720 bigger ridings, whenever people are running, they're running with like five bucks and a ham

00:14:00.920 sandwich. And every once in a while, you like talk to these people, they're like, oh, people just

00:14:05.060 didn't wake up enough for me to win. And you know, it's the same thing with the communist, oh, you know,

00:14:09.100 society just hasn't fallen into the pits enough for them to know that we need Stalinism or whatever.

00:14:13.880 It's like, or maybe you just suck as a candidate, and you weren't trying that hard. And even if you

00:14:18.480 were a major party candidate, you'd probably lose because you don't have any work ethic. And you

00:14:21.880 really just believe that you're meant to be elected. And that's really it. I know that I

00:14:27.600 know people say like, you know, the big parties can be like have corruption inside and stupid

00:14:32.420 insider games. 100% I know that I was kicked out of a federal nomination in Calgary Signal Hill that

00:14:38.720 I probably would have won, because they just didn't want me not they didn't want me they just wanted

00:14:43.780 somebody else jokes on them. I still made sure that guy lost because that was nothing not like

00:14:48.900 nonsense. He was a massive red Tory who didn't live in the area. But I know more than anyone else, how

00:14:56.060 bad parties can be inside. But I never understand the idea that okay, but now we're going to run on a

00:15:01.720 party that's going to use like, like 17 colors on the signs, we're not gonna have an incomprehensible

00:15:09.020 platform. And we're just going to hope that our populist energy that we think we're garnering is

00:15:15.180 going to push us up into office, which I've never actually heard really happen ever in history.

00:15:21.320 But anyways, so that's it for me today, guys. If you want to support the show, you can donate to

00:15:26.760 the gifts and go campaign I have for my legal fund in the description below. And I also have it pinned

00:15:31.920 at the top of the comments being sued by a Chinese billionaire developer for defamation that in most in almost

00:15:38.300 three years, it'll be three years in December, he still hasn't actually filed any evidence to show

00:15:44.160 that we defamed him in any way. What we said was true. And we were referencing people who had

00:15:49.580 investigated him and said it years before. So I don't know what he wants from us. Anyways, that should

00:15:56.200 be it for me today, guys. Have a good one.

The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - October 21, 2024

BC Election in a deadlock - 49,000 mail-in ballot left to count!

Episode Stats

Length

Words per Minute

Word Count

Sentence Count

Summary

Transcript