The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - October 18, 2024


BC election is a tossup! Eby is low-energy, Rustad greets thousands!

Hosted by
Wyatt Claypool
Mentioned
Surrey David Eby Port Moody Berquitlam Donald Trump John Rustad Conservative Polaro Leger
Liberal MP calls for Trudeau to resign - the coup starts! BC NDP campaign was wall to wall lies, smears, and deflections

Episode Stats


Length

17 minutes

Words per minute

193.92

Word count

3,466

Sentence count

218

Harmful content

Toxicity

1

sentences flagged

Hate speech

2

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

Wyatt Claypool breaks down the latest polls and gives us a glimpse into the race between the BC NDP and BC Tories, and why the race is so close and so close yet so close. He also gives his analysis on why the B.C. NDP campaign is running out of gas, and what it can do to turn things around.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
Hosts, guests, and mentioned names generated with spaCy (en_core_web_sm), reconciled against Wikidata.
00:00:00.000 Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here, coming to you one day before the British Columbia provincial election.
00:00:06.860 Probably one of the wildest elections any of us in Canada have witnessed in a long time.
00:00:12.600 And I urge you, if you live in BC and you haven't already voted, you have to vote on election day tomorrow.
00:00:20.080 It's going to be a torrential downpour, I've heard, across most of the lower mainland.
00:00:25.460 Please tough it out because I know the NDP voters won't.
00:00:28.320 But this, again, has been an absolutely wild race.
00:00:32.760 It's going to be tight, this election, because there is so much money on the NDP side to push out their voters.
00:00:39.140 Even if most of the general public doesn't like the NDP anymore, they can still put up a tough fight.
00:00:45.000 But remember where this race started.
00:00:47.600 In January, you would have polls in BC saying that the BC NDP were leading by 28%.
00:00:55.000 They were leading the next closest party by 28%.
00:00:59.320 And now we are in a race where, depending on the pollster, they are either down significantly or barely up on the Conservatives.
00:01:07.920 And I think it's telling that Main Street Research, which has had the Conservatives leading for about the last 10 days or so by anywhere from one point all the way up to five points, they, in fact, even have the Conservatives today leading by five points, that the rest of the pollsters who had the NDP up last week by five points, they've significantly tightened.
00:01:27.480 I think it's, I was saying the names combined, either it was Polaro or Pallas, who last week had the NDP up five, now just throw out a poll saying one.
00:01:38.160 They're only up by one.
00:01:39.880 Leger, that had the NDP up five, only say about three and a half now.
00:01:43.980 And I think this is what you call herding at the end of an election.
00:01:47.200 It doesn't look great for the NDP.
00:01:49.340 They could still win.
00:01:50.540 Maybe their votes are more efficient.
00:01:52.040 They lose the popular vote, but they win on seats.
00:01:54.120 But I think that a lot of the pollsters realize that their polls for the NDP might have been a little bit too hawkish.
00:02:01.420 And so what you do is you herd towards the mean, and the mean has been more towards Main Street's plus fives for the Conservatives, so to not look silly by having it be a Conservative blowout, you know, say it's basically a tie like Pallas just did.
00:02:15.240 Maybe that's legitimately what their poll said, but that's kind of how it works.
00:02:18.760 But in the last few days of the B.C. provincial election, I think there has been a significant difference in the energy levels between the two parties.
00:02:29.300 John Rustad finished off last night speaking in front of 2,000 people in a banquet hall in Surrey, and David Eby apparently was in Surrey earlier in the day doing some, I guess, campaign office visits, and then ran back to Yaletown.
00:02:45.140 I believe a rioting that's probably not even going to be won by the B.C. NDP to do this rally where they had one of the communications directors for B.C. United say,
00:02:55.100 I took out a B.C. NDP membership so I could vote for them on Election Day, which somebody should tell him that you actually don't need to buy a membership to vote in these elections.
00:03:05.320 But this was the contrast last night.
00:03:07.440 And one person could say, well, maybe Eby had another rally on another day that was equally as big.
00:03:14.460 In the last week, you've got to be having massive events or it's a big waste of time.
00:03:19.480 The only thing a leader does on the last day is rallies volunteers to go door knocking or they do big rallies.
00:03:24.940 That is it.
00:03:25.940 And it seems like David Eby's organization has just run out of gas.
00:03:29.660 I don't think they know where they need to go in the province that's most effective for them.
00:03:33.240 They've been keeping a lot of their time all kind of bottled up in Surrey, going back to Vancouver ridings that I've seen where there's no chance they're going to lose some of these areas.
00:03:43.060 But for some reason, David Eby's like puttering around in ridings where the NDP should be winning by 10, 15 percent.
00:03:50.360 Most of the remaining race in B.C. in terms of places that are toss ups or undecided, we don't know where they're going to go, is not actually in Surrey.
00:03:59.600 Southern Surrey could go significantly conservative, but the real path to victory, at least in my mind, is through Maple Ridge, Coquitlam, Port Moody actually could go conservative.
00:04:10.100 The demographics on that riding are set up to be more conservative.
00:04:14.460 And maybe I can show you a little bit or maybe I won't show it on screen because I don't want to show all of Main Street's data everywhere.
00:04:19.660 But in this last day, the last day poll that Main Street just released shows that there is a lead for the B.C. conservatives among all income brackets.
00:04:30.000 People making 50,000 less, 51,000, 75,000, I think 75 to 100 and then 100 plus.
00:04:36.320 Those groups are all going conservative, whether it's just by 1 percent margin over the NDP all the way up to 12 percent lead.
00:04:43.340 And even the university educated bachelor degree holders who usually go more B.C. and D.B. have also tightened up with the conservatives.
00:04:51.540 But the conservatives, I hate when my videos jump scare me by autoplaying.
00:04:57.700 But the but the biggest lead the conservatives have, I think it's the real divide in British Columbia.
00:05:02.860 It's between the people who have sociology degrees and the people who are, you know, have trade degrees in plumbing, like they're electricians, whatnot.
00:05:12.040 They went to a trade school or college.
00:05:14.480 Those people are voting for the conservatives over the NDP by a margin of 20 percent.
00:05:20.640 The conservatives have a 20 percent lead with people who work in trades, went to trade colleges, all that sort of thing.
00:05:27.120 That's insane. High school or less also has a big lead, a big 11 point lead for the conservatives.
00:05:33.460 And what you even have to know about the polls, even the polls that are showing the conservatives up, even those tend to have a little bit more of an NDP bias.
00:05:42.060 Again, as I've been saying throughout a lot of these videos, teachers, plumbers, electricians, restaurateurs, small business owners, a lot of these types of people don't answer polls.
00:05:52.260 Who's going to even if it's a five minute IVR poll?
00:05:54.260 None of these people in the middle of their day really have time to sit there listening to a robotic voice telling them what their what the questions are and what their answer options are.
00:06:03.000 They they they don't have the time that like a public sector worker does or student or retiree.
00:06:09.520 And most retirees, in fact, when they do answer polls, it tends to be more NDP.
00:06:15.120 But we know that the retiree group in general tends to actually be more conservative in their real voting patterns.
00:06:21.940 So maybe the NDP wins.
00:06:24.500 I think I ballpark this election to be a 75 percent chance the conservatives win 25 for the NDP.
00:06:30.680 And that 25 represents if there was a massive polling error.
00:06:34.360 And maybe I'm just confused and everyone hates us.
00:06:36.640 But I've been doing a lot of door knocking in a lot of different places, ridings where we were significantly ahead, ridings where we were behind.
00:06:43.620 And this is just based on models.
00:06:45.400 Maybe we're technically ahead.
00:06:46.880 And I found that universally people like to see us.
00:06:49.920 People want to talk to us.
00:06:51.300 People like us.
00:06:52.140 People like the plan.
00:06:53.200 They don't like the NDP.
00:06:54.740 It would be shocking to me that a lot of people show up to basically maintain this government as if it's done anything for them.
00:07:00.940 Maybe media propaganda really works and people say, oh, well, that conservative candidate said something I didn't like nine years ago, and that's what's going to cause them to flip.
00:07:10.500 But in general, I think the problems are too bad.
00:07:13.640 There's homeless drug addicts dying on the streets and somebody's going to get offended by a joke that a candidate made from the conservatives.
00:07:20.000 It doesn't make sense to me.
00:07:21.440 And also, this is why I think we're going to be picking up Richmond.
00:07:24.600 Right now, the conservatives have, I think, about 55% to 60%, depending on if you add in undecideds or take them away, of the East Asian vote.
00:07:33.980 That is the plurality of Richmond, is people who are Chinese, Korean, Japanese.
00:07:38.380 And the conservatives are absolutely smashing that specific voting demographic.
00:07:42.460 That's why I think Port Moody Berquitlam is in play, even though some models show the NDP winning it by five or six points.
00:07:48.520 The problem is that riding is white and Asian, and those are two demographic groups that the BC conservatives are, in fact, winning.
00:07:56.620 And that's when Surrey becomes a big question mark, because South Asian people, probably smarter than the rest of us, don't take polls because polls are, in fact, a little bit annoying to take. 0.99
00:08:07.340 So they just don't take polls.
00:08:08.680 So in a poll of, like, 1,500 people, only 18 respondents are South Asian.
00:08:13.120 So that really becomes the big question mark of Surrey.
00:08:16.120 Right. Do South Asians show up for the conservatives? 1.00
00:08:18.720 Do they show up for the NDP?
00:08:20.100 Or do they stay home because they just don't want to get into it?
00:08:22.600 Because you do get some communities where, when it's a tight election, they don't want to be on the bad side of a party.
00:08:27.620 They don't want to be blamed for this party winning and that party losing.
00:08:30.580 So we're just going to sit home and not mess around too much.
00:08:34.260 But now I just want to bring up this video because I think it is kind of representative of the attitude of the NDP.
00:08:40.920 Does he work for the NDP in, like, a real way, like he's a campaign volunteer or he's a strategist?
00:08:48.520 No, but I think this is funny when you have NDP people going around vandalizing conservative signs.
00:08:53.980 Stop vandalizing windows.
00:09:07.780 Stop vandalizing windows.
00:09:10.540 This is private property.
00:09:14.580 I have you on camera vandalizing windows.
00:09:18.540 It's not appropriate.
00:09:20.580 Private property vandalizing windows.
00:09:23.080 You're entitled to your opinion.
00:09:26.780 You're entitled to your opinion.
00:09:28.260 You can't vandalize windows.
00:09:29.620 I'm sorry.
00:09:30.020 What did you just say?
00:09:30.760 You're entitled to your opinion.
00:09:31.880 You can't vandalize windows.
00:09:33.820 Well, I'll face the consequences.
00:09:37.560 Unlike the people who deny climate change.
00:09:39.320 Yeah, I got it.
00:09:41.080 Well, unlike the people who deny climate change, I hope he wasn't implying there that if you, like, deny climate change, you should be locked up or punished.
00:09:49.000 Or I guess he's saying that they're not going to face the consequences because it's going to be future generations.
00:09:53.660 Honestly, whenever I've had a door, like, slammed in my face or somebody was rude to me in one of these writings I've been door knocking in, it's always this kind of, like, arrogant, I can do what I want kind of attitude.
00:10:05.760 I always find those who consider themselves the most intelligent voters, the most compassionate, empathetic.
00:10:10.440 Like, they're always the shortest tempered.
00:10:12.420 They're always the nastiest, the cattiest.
00:10:15.140 They think that you're evil so they can do and say what they want to you. 0.76
00:10:18.680 I rarely really see anything from the other side that shows that a conservative woman was or a conservative man was, like, rude to a door knocker.
00:10:27.080 Sometimes happens.
00:10:28.080 Obviously, there's cranks on every side.
00:10:29.560 But I always find that when I can tell someone's hardcore NDP, it's never like, you know, I'm voting NDP and I didn't like you guys doing this or that or I believe in this policy.
00:10:37.860 It's always like, I don't vote conservative.
00:10:39.880 It's this bad attitude that this is B.C., we vote NDP because we're smarter than you kind of a thing.
00:10:46.320 Oh, we don't vote for far-right conservatives.
00:10:49.740 That's it.
00:10:50.720 And the thing is that I think it is demonstrative that if you watch a lot of mainstream media, you are the least educated voter, that you get the worst take on most of the current events in the province.
00:11:02.240 I don't think that enough people who watch legacy media really know the extent to how bad the health care system is in this province, how much, like, wealth flight is taking place because of high tax and regulations.
00:11:14.800 We lost 70,000 people last year to other provinces and the U.S. because of just how hard it is to operate a business in this province.
00:11:23.080 And then David Eby arrogantly says, well, we had 150,000 people enter the province last year as well.
00:11:29.180 Yeah, but they're not business owners.
00:11:30.900 They're new people working low-wage jobs.
00:11:33.680 And you can't build a province on government jobs and minimum-wage private sector work.
00:11:38.900 You actually eventually need to lower people's taxes so they can invest in their own businesses.
00:11:42.820 Oh, I don't know why I have to explain this.
00:11:45.460 Like, you know, you can't actually clean up crime by giving out welfare checks.
00:11:49.380 It's not how it works.
00:11:51.060 David Eby, in fact, has that insane quote where he says, I don't care if people spend their entire welfare check on crack cocaine.
00:11:57.640 That's their right.
00:11:58.540 And that really is something that sums up David Eby's entire tenure as premier.
00:12:02.880 It's just that, you know, we just want to enable people in the worst possible behavior and you're going to pay for it because you were nasty enough to actually build a business that's successful so you owe us now half your income.
00:12:16.700 And this is what I've told to people multiple times.
00:12:19.160 I usually find funny.
00:12:20.300 I said that BC, the provincial slogan of British Columbia under the NDP might as well be, are you supposed to be doing that?
00:12:27.820 Who told you you can do that?
00:12:29.660 There's constantly just forms you have to file.
00:12:31.980 Now, people jumping in the way of anything you're trying to do, trying to build a building in BC is impossible because there's so many extra inspections you have to do.
00:12:40.840 There's so many extra codes and labor issues you have to deal with in order to get anything done.
00:12:46.200 There's a reason why it's easier to build in Alberta.
00:12:48.100 And people will be like, well, housing costs a lot everywhere.
00:12:51.000 Yeah, but you guys are the worst for a reason.
00:12:52.740 I even had a guy yesterday and I get his point.
00:12:55.080 He says, well, you know, things in the province aren't that bad because things are starting to come back.
00:12:59.920 Wages are starting to go up again.
00:13:01.380 And the economy is starting to get going.
00:13:02.800 I'm like, yeah, on a macro level, the Canadian national economy and the world economy tends to move in the same direction.
00:13:09.940 Just because you couldn't possibly have a good economy south of the border that doesn't even somewhat rub off on British Columbia.
00:13:17.240 But if you look at BC compared to Alberta, compared to Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, BC is the one lagging behind on growth.
00:13:24.860 We lost 18,000 jobs in September.
00:13:27.680 It's not really coming back.
00:13:29.360 We're just kind of being lifted up by the success of others at this point.
00:13:33.100 Anyways, that's it for me today.
00:13:36.720 Maybe actually before I go here, I will show you guys at least the model from today's polling.
00:13:42.740 I'll show you it with the undecided still added in because there's a few people who might be able to make up their minds in the last day here.
00:13:49.000 But we're down all the way to just 5% of people are undecided, which really shows you how undecided this race used to be.
00:13:57.380 Because at the start, like 15 days ago or 20 days ago, it was common to see up to 17% of people undecided.
00:14:07.560 Now it's just five.
00:14:08.340 We have the Conservatives leading with 43% of the vote, the NDP at 38, and the Greens at 11.
00:14:14.480 And then another party is four.
00:14:16.120 I actually think another party are going to be a lot of BC Conservative voters just not wanting to say it because there is so much aggression against the Conservatives that you are going to find that silent Conservative voter.
00:14:27.960 It actually happens in the US with Donald Trump when the media goes so hard after people for voting for a candidate that you're a bad person.
00:14:35.880 You must be racist, you must be this, that, whatever, that some people start to stop wanting to tell anyone their opinion.
00:14:41.760 They're going to vote Conservative, but they're going to tell pollsters either something different or they're going to say another party or they're just not going to answer the call because I don't want to deal with it.
00:14:51.280 And so I think there is going to be a silent majority of people who are going to show up this election and put the Conservatives over the top.
00:14:56.700 Because last election in 2020, early voting had about 671,000 people vote.
00:15:02.180 And that was a COVID election where there was a lot of incentive for some people who were very COVID paranoid to show up and vote when the lines were a bit shorter, a little bit more sparsely populated.
00:15:13.580 But this election, we have a million people, specifically a million and 1,000 people who voted early.
00:15:20.200 And it sounds like there's still a lot more people who are going to be showing up and voting tomorrow.
00:15:24.260 In fact, when you actually poll people on who haven't voted yet, it looks like the Conservatives at least have a slight edge with early voting.
00:15:30.280 When you ask people, are you certain to vote?
00:15:32.460 Those who have not voted, the certain to vote category, the Conservatives are leading by 12%.
00:15:37.880 And then the likely to vote category, the NDP are a little bit more neck and neck.
00:15:42.120 And then the unlikely to vote category, the NDP are leading the Conservatives.
00:15:46.480 So like I was saying a few weeks ago, the thing that the NDP lead most on inside their base is crushing apathy.
00:15:53.920 People don't run out of the House and vote to maintain a government.
00:15:57.040 They vote, they run out of the House and vote for change.
00:16:00.120 Low turnout elections tend to maintain governments because it's the supporters of that government,
00:16:05.080 the people who vote frequently, who generally are pretty plugged in and know how like the state of the province,
00:16:11.600 they show up in low turnout elections and they tend to reelect governments they think are doing a good job.
00:16:16.100 High turnout is when people are dissatisfied.
00:16:18.640 Nobody is so satisfied that they just want to go and vote in order to let the guys know.
00:16:23.480 That doesn't really happen.
00:16:24.580 Low turnout always means generally satisfied or some other random factor.
00:16:29.740 High turnout means we're ticked off.
00:16:31.760 And I do think that this electorate's ticked off.
00:16:33.600 I've gone to ridings again where we're supposedly trailing by eight, nine points.
00:16:37.680 And I go to the NDP polls in those areas, the polls that the NDP,
00:16:42.480 even if they won the riding last time by 50%, 55%,
00:16:46.300 that this is their poll where they got 75% of the vote.
00:16:49.460 So it's like a 50-50 down those streets.
00:16:53.520 I'm talking to every single house and it's very up in the air.
00:16:57.460 People are not hot on the NDP, even in their traditionally voting neighborhoods for the NDP.
00:17:03.420 So anyways, that should be it for me today, guys.
00:17:06.620 Again, go and vote.
00:17:07.640 If you can't vote tomorrow, I believe you can go to a returning office in your riding and they let you basically just write in who you're going to vote for without having to do advanced or day of.
00:17:17.360 So if you can't go tomorrow, go to your returning office, vote there, make sure all your kids voted, make sure your parents voted, make sure your friends voted,
00:17:25.020 because it's not really like an election where you're going to be like, well, I don't want to ask her who she voted for.
00:17:30.600 Oh my goodness, save yourself several thousands of dollars in taxes and make sure that they voted conservative so we actually can save the province and whatnot.
00:17:38.360 I'm about to go door knocking.
00:17:40.020 Have a good one, everyone.
00:17:40.880 If you want to support the show, you can donate in the description below at the Give, Send, Go link for the legal fund,
00:17:46.060 which I also have pinned at the top of the comments.
00:17:49.480 See you guys later.
00:17:50.460 I promise to get a haircut after the election.