The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - BC United (Liberals) embarrasses themselves as the party death spirals

00:00:00.000 So the British Columbia United Party is effectively dead at this point, but like any dying party

00:00:06.560 worth their salt, the BC United are going to stick around and embarrass themselves as much

00:00:11.640 as humanly possible until they finally get the message that BC residents are not going to vote

00:00:16.540 for them in the next election and they should probably just dissolve at this point. This poll

00:00:21.300 came out a couple of days ago showing that the BC United are in a distant, distant third place,

00:00:27.200 eight points behind the BC Conservatives and being dominated by the NDP who are far ahead of

00:00:33.160 everybody else. To be fair, Leger did this poll and they do have a little bit more of an urban bias

00:00:38.280 compared to other pollsters, so BC NDP are probably being a little bit over-polled by them. But you

00:00:44.580 shouldn't take that as a sign that the BC United has any chance of winning the next election.

00:00:49.400 Over-polling the NDP or not, they are not going to catch up with the BC Conservatives and in fact

00:00:54.540 the BC Conservatives have been absolutely cannibalizing the support of the BC United.

00:00:58.880 But don't tell the BC United comms team that because out of this poll, where they are 8%

00:01:05.820 behind the next best party, they came out with these social media posts. They read,

00:01:11.860 it's clear the momentum heading into the next election is with the BC United and has turned

00:01:17.640 against the BC cons. Today's Leger poll has BC United up 3% from three weeks ago while support

00:01:24.080 for the BC cons has plummeted 9%. No, it does not. It does not show that at all. I'm not sure if the

00:01:30.740 BC United's comms teams need to be told this, but Leger and Main Street Research are not the same

00:01:37.880 polling firm. They have their own polling methodologies. They have their own ways of getting

00:01:42.560 a polling sample. And so you cannot compare these two polls together. The actual, like these are

00:01:48.880 what the polling results were between these two polls. Leger had the NDP up 17 points and Main

00:01:54.020 Street only had them up six points over the Conservatives who the actual momentum of this

00:01:58.760 election is with. The last Main Street poll, I believe done in September of last year, had the BC

00:02:04.440 Conservatives within eight points of the NDP. There's a consistent trend with Main Street showing that

00:02:11.060 the BC Conservatives are rising, the United are falling, and the NDP are either staying where

00:02:15.740 they are or contracting a little bit. If you actually look at the previous Leger poll, it actually

00:02:20.580 showed that the Conservatives had gained since they last did a poll. So based on the way that Leger does

00:02:26.620 their polling and the way that they collect their samples, it actually is demonstrating that the

00:02:31.000 Conservatives have the momentum. But I guess the BC United just wanted to embarrass themselves as

00:02:36.500 deeply as humanly possible. So they're pretending like they have momentum because between two

00:02:42.320 different polling firms' polls, they are technically doing better, even though they have no effect on

00:02:49.200 each other. These two polls are completely different data points. But whatever, the BC United are going

00:02:55.840 to go down in flames. They might have far more seats right now than the BC Conservatives, but the

00:03:01.520 problem is the BC United serves nobody. Here's an actual detailed result from the Leger poll that

00:03:07.160 demonstrates all the problems that the BC United are having. This is mapping out which kind of federal

00:03:12.800 parties the different provincial party supporters are planning on voting for. And this actually

00:03:17.860 demonstrates why even the NDP is going to have some issues. So actually the NDP is relying on 13%

00:03:23.500 of people planning on voting for the Conservatives in the federal election, which I believe is going to

00:03:27.960 start consolidating over to the Conservatives. But look at the United down there on third on the

00:03:32.560 chart. It's showing that their party is split between Conservatives and Liberals, whereas the

00:03:38.240 Conservatives, the BC Conservatives, are mostly relying on Conservative federal voters. And the problem for

00:03:44.880 both the United and the NDP is the Conservatives are way in front in first place federally in BC. And I

00:03:51.420 don't think Conservative Party voters are going to stick around with the BC United or NDP if the

00:03:56.600 Conservatives become a real vehicle. And they are quickly becoming the real opposition vehicle

00:04:01.340 against the NDP. The United doesn't know what they want to be. So they kind of oppose the like the

00:04:07.900 NDP's decriminalization of drug policies, although they are the ones who introduced them back the day when

00:04:12.500 they were still called the BC Liberals. They're a party who is like kind of fiscally conservative, not really

00:04:18.540 socially conservative. They're really all over the place on every single issue. They're kind of pro-SOGI.

00:04:24.160 They're kind of against it. So it's the party for nobody. And that is what's reflected in the polls.

00:04:29.540 Yes, they can take two different polls and show that they did a little bit better in this one and

00:04:33.860 the BC Conservatives did a little bit worse than this one. But it's not changing the fact that John

00:04:37.940 Rusted is actually considered the real opposition to David Evie. And the only thing holding the

00:04:43.760 Conservatives back at this point is just name recognition. As they campaign more and people realize

00:04:48.200 the provincial Conservative Party is actually a real thing, because in the past it's kind of been a

00:04:52.500 fringe party. Not that their ideas are fringe, it's just that people either vote for the BC NDP or the

00:04:57.880 BC Liberals. And now the BC Conservatives are a real force and they have frankly a better brand than

00:05:04.120 United. And that's another thing. Never change the name of your party randomly as like a unity move.

00:05:11.460 If your party sucks, people aren't going to vote for it. You could name your party anything. And if you

00:05:16.200 have good ideas and you're campaigning well and you have the right messaging, people will vote for you.

00:05:21.320 Taking the dead brand of the BC Liberals, which was this kind of weird big tent shared party between

00:05:27.680 Liberals and Conservatives, which was a marriage that was never going to last. You can't just slap

00:05:31.960 United on the party and pretend that that's going to unify everybody. It's such a bureaucratic,

00:05:38.480 you know, dumb, can't like, it's someone who's been campaigning way too long in like the early aughts 0.98

00:05:45.660 when that sort of thing might work. Early 2000s politics is very strange. Whenever there's a 0.98

00:05:50.820 terrible campaign manager, it's usually someone who grew up managing in the early 2000s where you

00:05:56.240 could think, well, let's just, let's just say we're the unity party and then people will vote

00:06:00.600 for us. Not how it's going to work. You actually had name recognition as the BC Liberals and now you

00:06:05.220 have no name recognition at all. The only thing holding them up is people know who Kevin Falkinson

00:06:09.900 is. And so they're kind of willing to vote for the party where they don't really know who John

00:06:13.380 Rusted is. But as John Rusted's name recognition goes up, people will consolidate behind him. Even

00:06:18.620 with only 27% leadership approval with John Rusted, because like 50% of people don't even know who he

00:06:24.700 is. He is still dominating the BC United. That is pathetic for the BC United. Like if you're in

00:06:29.820 British Columbia, guys, if you're voting for the BC United, because they, you think in your local

00:06:34.320 riding that they might have a better chance of beating the NDP, it's not going to happen in six

00:06:39.380 months. In six months, the BC United are not going to be in a better position than they are now.

00:06:43.940 They will be in a worse position. This actually, this Leger poll, this is just one detailed result

00:06:48.600 that came out of it. But other ones showing the regionals were demonstrating that although the,

00:06:53.860 like the BC Conservatives are up eight points on the United, but the conventional wisdom was that

00:06:58.060 the BC Conservatives are going to do really well in rural areas. And then they're going to have a

00:07:02.460 harder time breaking into Vancouver Island, as well as Metro Vancouver. They were up on the BC

00:07:07.580 United in all three of those regions. So what's the point of voting United? Your local riding is

00:07:13.240 not going to survive the NDP by voting United. Voting Conservative is the only way you are going

00:07:19.880 to be able to flip a Vancouver riding from orange to blue. The United offer nothing, nothing different

00:07:25.660 than the NDP. And as Aaron O'Toole demonstrated in the 2021 federal election, just being the slight

00:07:32.820 sidestep to the right of your left-wing opponents is not appealing to anybody. Conservative small

00:07:38.920 business owners, people who work hard, people who are, don't get like very big bloated public

00:07:44.720 sector union checks though. And like for not that much work, those people are insulted when you give

00:07:50.580 them basically no reason to vote for you other than you're a little bit better than the other guys.

00:07:54.560 These people work way too hard to be insulted that way. You better be a significant improvement

00:07:59.640 over your NDP opponents or you're dead in the water. The NDP is very beatable in this election.

00:08:06.120 They're up in front in the polls. And let's just say this Leger poll is the truth. And it's not that

00:08:11.240 the Main Street one's more accurate. Let's just say Leger for argument is more accurate. The thing is

00:08:15.700 that that same Leger poll showed that only 29% of British Columbians were in favor of keeping the

00:08:22.180 provincial carbon tax. And remember, in the same poll, the BC Greens had 11%. The BC Greens are going to be

00:08:28.820 like three quarters of them are probably in favor of keeping the provincial carbon tax. That's kind

00:08:34.660 of their thing. They are a Green Party. So that leaves the BC NDP with only about 20, 21% of people

00:08:42.180 who are in favor of keeping the BC carbon tax. And even then, probably some BC United voters also want

00:08:47.420 to keep the carbon tax because they're federal liberal voters. So in reality, there's probably only

00:08:51.600 about 15 to 18% of the 43% that the BC NDP have who are in favor of the carbon tax. That is a massive

00:09:00.000 amount of people who can be stolen from the BC NDP. David Eby and the BC NDP are only surface level

00:09:07.140 popular simply because for the last probably year and a half, they really haven't had an opposition.

00:09:13.340 Once the BC Conservatives are the clear opposition to David Eby's party, then they will actually start

00:09:19.260 surging even more than they already are. Right now, the BC Conservatives don't really have much

00:09:23.400 of a budget. Once big donors start coming in for them, that's when they're going to start being the

00:09:27.840 big competitors in these ridings against the NDP. Right now, they're doing well with basically no

00:09:32.860 money. So if you live in BC, I will actually, in the description below, add in the links to the BC

00:09:39.240 Conservatives' Facebook page, X page, as well as their main website. Go sign up with them. Make sure you vote

00:09:44.920 for them. Don't quibble about if the United Conservatives are going to do better in your

00:09:49.460 riding or not. Guys, we're six months away from the election and the United is falling. The election's

00:09:54.660 not happening tomorrow. Back the main party who can actually beat them in the province overall. Not

00:10:00.400 looking at 338 projections and seeing if in your Vancouver riding, the BC United technically has the

00:10:06.760 edge. It doesn't matter in six months. Anyways, sorry for the little mini rant that that went on to.

00:10:12.020 But I just, I hate when people start trying to unskew polls and think, well, but if I'm in this

00:10:16.780 area, I should be voting for this party. No, vote for the party you guys want to vote for. The people

00:10:21.520 at the end of the day, vote for the party they like. Don't vote for a party you don't like simply

00:10:25.700 because like in theory, they're going to win. This is where I'll never attack PPC people for voting

00:10:31.340 PPC. If you just like them better than the Conservatives, more power to you. Never vote for them

00:10:35.700 for like abstract reasons where are the Conservatives going to do this? And is the PPC a little bit

00:10:41.920 stronger in this platform area? Do you think that you're going to get the better result with one

00:10:46.380 party or the other on policy as well as the electoral outcome? Don't base your voting intentions purely

00:10:52.480 based on policy or purely based on electoral outcomes, or you will make very clownish decisions

00:10:57.780 electorally. Vote for the party that you overall like better, not in like certain tiny little

00:11:03.140 microscopic areas or purely based on who can win. That's a silly way of doing things. Anyways, so I 0.76

00:11:09.140 have all those BC Conservative links in the description below for you guys. Also, if you

00:11:13.660 live in the city of Calgary on the west side of Calgary, I, Wyatt Claypool, I'm running for the

00:11:18.240 Conservative Party nomination for Calgary Signal Hill. This is what the writing will look like after

00:11:22.800 boundaries get redrawn. So if you live in this area of property, buy a membership, visit my website.

00:11:28.540 Also, you can donate to the National Telegraph's legal fund. We have a billionaire developer suing us

00:11:34.100 for no reason. It's been more than two years this lawsuit's been going on, and they still have not

00:11:38.500 provided evidence. We have defamed them or said anything inaccurate. All of our reporting was

00:11:43.500 mostly based off a Globe and Mail article anyways. So it's just someone trying to bully us because,

00:11:48.920 you know, lawfare exists and people can use the legal system to attack people they don't like.

00:11:53.660 Anyways, that should be it for me today, guys. I hope you like the new set. Hopefully it doesn't feel

00:11:58.380 like you're at a crap on the wall restaurant, but I think I generally like it. So hopefully you guys

00:12:05.140 do too. Have a good one. See you tomorrow.

The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - April 06, 2024

BC United (Liberals) embarrasses themselves as the party death spirals

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