BC United (Liberals) embarrasses themselves as the party death spirals
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Summary
The BC United Party is a political party in British Columbia, Canada. They are in third place in the polls, 8 points behind the BC Conservative Party and a distant third place behind the NDP. Is it time for the United Party to dissolve?
Transcript
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So the British Columbia United Party is effectively dead at this point, but like any dying party
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worth their salt, the BC United are going to stick around and embarrass themselves as much
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as humanly possible until they finally get the message that BC residents are not going to vote
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for them in the next election and they should probably just dissolve at this point. This poll
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came out a couple of days ago showing that the BC United are in a distant, distant third place,
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eight points behind the BC Conservatives and being dominated by the NDP who are far ahead of
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everybody else. To be fair, Leger did this poll and they do have a little bit more of an urban bias
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compared to other pollsters, so BC NDP are probably being a little bit over-polled by them. But you
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shouldn't take that as a sign that the BC United has any chance of winning the next election.
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Over-polling the NDP or not, they are not going to catch up with the BC Conservatives and in fact
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the BC Conservatives have been absolutely cannibalizing the support of the BC United.
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But don't tell the BC United comms team that because out of this poll, where they are 8%
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behind the next best party, they came out with these social media posts. They read,
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it's clear the momentum heading into the next election is with the BC United and has turned
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against the BC cons. Today's Leger poll has BC United up 3% from three weeks ago while support
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for the BC cons has plummeted 9%. No, it does not. It does not show that at all. I'm not sure if the
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BC United's comms teams need to be told this, but Leger and Main Street Research are not the same
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polling firm. They have their own polling methodologies. They have their own ways of getting
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a polling sample. And so you cannot compare these two polls together. The actual, like these are
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what the polling results were between these two polls. Leger had the NDP up 17 points and Main
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Street only had them up six points over the Conservatives who the actual momentum of this
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election is with. The last Main Street poll, I believe done in September of last year, had the BC
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Conservatives within eight points of the NDP. There's a consistent trend with Main Street showing that
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the BC Conservatives are rising, the United are falling, and the NDP are either staying where
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they are or contracting a little bit. If you actually look at the previous Leger poll, it actually
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showed that the Conservatives had gained since they last did a poll. So based on the way that Leger does
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their polling and the way that they collect their samples, it actually is demonstrating that the
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Conservatives have the momentum. But I guess the BC United just wanted to embarrass themselves as
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deeply as humanly possible. So they're pretending like they have momentum because between two
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different polling firms' polls, they are technically doing better, even though they have no effect on
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each other. These two polls are completely different data points. But whatever, the BC United are going
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to go down in flames. They might have far more seats right now than the BC Conservatives, but the
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problem is the BC United serves nobody. Here's an actual detailed result from the Leger poll that
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demonstrates all the problems that the BC United are having. This is mapping out which kind of federal
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parties the different provincial party supporters are planning on voting for. And this actually
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demonstrates why even the NDP is going to have some issues. So actually the NDP is relying on 13%
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of people planning on voting for the Conservatives in the federal election, which I believe is going to
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start consolidating over to the Conservatives. But look at the United down there on third on the
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chart. It's showing that their party is split between Conservatives and Liberals, whereas the
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Conservatives, the BC Conservatives, are mostly relying on Conservative federal voters. And the problem for
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both the United and the NDP is the Conservatives are way in front in first place federally in BC. And I
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don't think Conservative Party voters are going to stick around with the BC United or NDP if the
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Conservatives become a real vehicle. And they are quickly becoming the real opposition vehicle
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against the NDP. The United doesn't know what they want to be. So they kind of oppose the like the
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NDP's decriminalization of drug policies, although they are the ones who introduced them back the day when
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they were still called the BC Liberals. They're a party who is like kind of fiscally conservative, not really
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socially conservative. They're really all over the place on every single issue. They're kind of pro-SOGI.
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They're kind of against it. So it's the party for nobody. And that is what's reflected in the polls.
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Yes, they can take two different polls and show that they did a little bit better in this one and
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the BC Conservatives did a little bit worse than this one. But it's not changing the fact that John
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Rusted is actually considered the real opposition to David Evie. And the only thing holding the
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Conservatives back at this point is just name recognition. As they campaign more and people realize
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the provincial Conservative Party is actually a real thing, because in the past it's kind of been a
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fringe party. Not that their ideas are fringe, it's just that people either vote for the BC NDP or the
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BC Liberals. And now the BC Conservatives are a real force and they have frankly a better brand than
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United. And that's another thing. Never change the name of your party randomly as like a unity move.
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If your party sucks, people aren't going to vote for it. You could name your party anything. And if you
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have good ideas and you're campaigning well and you have the right messaging, people will vote for you.
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Taking the dead brand of the BC Liberals, which was this kind of weird big tent shared party between
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Liberals and Conservatives, which was a marriage that was never going to last. You can't just slap
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United on the party and pretend that that's going to unify everybody. It's such a bureaucratic,
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you know, dumb, can't like, it's someone who's been campaigning way too long in like the early aughts
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when that sort of thing might work. Early 2000s politics is very strange. Whenever there's a
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terrible campaign manager, it's usually someone who grew up managing in the early 2000s where you
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could think, well, let's just, let's just say we're the unity party and then people will vote
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for us. Not how it's going to work. You actually had name recognition as the BC Liberals and now you
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have no name recognition at all. The only thing holding them up is people know who Kevin Falkinson
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is. And so they're kind of willing to vote for the party where they don't really know who John
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Rusted is. But as John Rusted's name recognition goes up, people will consolidate behind him. Even
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with only 27% leadership approval with John Rusted, because like 50% of people don't even know who he
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is. He is still dominating the BC United. That is pathetic for the BC United. Like if you're in
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British Columbia, guys, if you're voting for the BC United, because they, you think in your local
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riding that they might have a better chance of beating the NDP, it's not going to happen in six
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months. In six months, the BC United are not going to be in a better position than they are now.
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They will be in a worse position. This actually, this Leger poll, this is just one detailed result
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that came out of it. But other ones showing the regionals were demonstrating that although the,
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like the BC Conservatives are up eight points on the United, but the conventional wisdom was that
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the BC Conservatives are going to do really well in rural areas. And then they're going to have a
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harder time breaking into Vancouver Island, as well as Metro Vancouver. They were up on the BC
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United in all three of those regions. So what's the point of voting United? Your local riding is
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not going to survive the NDP by voting United. Voting Conservative is the only way you are going
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to be able to flip a Vancouver riding from orange to blue. The United offer nothing, nothing different
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than the NDP. And as Aaron O'Toole demonstrated in the 2021 federal election, just being the slight
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sidestep to the right of your left-wing opponents is not appealing to anybody. Conservative small
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business owners, people who work hard, people who are, don't get like very big bloated public
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sector union checks though. And like for not that much work, those people are insulted when you give
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them basically no reason to vote for you other than you're a little bit better than the other guys.
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These people work way too hard to be insulted that way. You better be a significant improvement
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over your NDP opponents or you're dead in the water. The NDP is very beatable in this election.
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They're up in front in the polls. And let's just say this Leger poll is the truth. And it's not that
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the Main Street one's more accurate. Let's just say Leger for argument is more accurate. The thing is
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that that same Leger poll showed that only 29% of British Columbians were in favor of keeping the
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provincial carbon tax. And remember, in the same poll, the BC Greens had 11%. The BC Greens are going to be
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like three quarters of them are probably in favor of keeping the provincial carbon tax. That's kind
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of their thing. They are a Green Party. So that leaves the BC NDP with only about 20, 21% of people
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who are in favor of keeping the BC carbon tax. And even then, probably some BC United voters also want
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to keep the carbon tax because they're federal liberal voters. So in reality, there's probably only
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about 15 to 18% of the 43% that the BC NDP have who are in favor of the carbon tax. That is a massive
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amount of people who can be stolen from the BC NDP. David Eby and the BC NDP are only surface level
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popular simply because for the last probably year and a half, they really haven't had an opposition.
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Once the BC Conservatives are the clear opposition to David Eby's party, then they will actually start
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surging even more than they already are. Right now, the BC Conservatives don't really have much
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of a budget. Once big donors start coming in for them, that's when they're going to start being the
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big competitors in these ridings against the NDP. Right now, they're doing well with basically no
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money. So if you live in BC, I will actually, in the description below, add in the links to the BC
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Conservatives' Facebook page, X page, as well as their main website. Go sign up with them. Make sure you vote
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for them. Don't quibble about if the United Conservatives are going to do better in your
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riding or not. Guys, we're six months away from the election and the United is falling. The election's
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not happening tomorrow. Back the main party who can actually beat them in the province overall. Not
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looking at 338 projections and seeing if in your Vancouver riding, the BC United technically has the
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edge. It doesn't matter in six months. Anyways, sorry for the little mini rant that that went on to.
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But I just, I hate when people start trying to unskew polls and think, well, but if I'm in this
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area, I should be voting for this party. No, vote for the party you guys want to vote for. The people
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at the end of the day, vote for the party they like. Don't vote for a party you don't like simply
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because like in theory, they're going to win. This is where I'll never attack PPC people for voting
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PPC. If you just like them better than the Conservatives, more power to you. Never vote for them
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for like abstract reasons where are the Conservatives going to do this? And is the PPC a little bit
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stronger in this platform area? Do you think that you're going to get the better result with one
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party or the other on policy as well as the electoral outcome? Don't base your voting intentions purely
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based on policy or purely based on electoral outcomes, or you will make very clownish decisions
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electorally. Vote for the party that you overall like better, not in like certain tiny little
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microscopic areas or purely based on who can win. That's a silly way of doing things. Anyways, so I
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have all those BC Conservative links in the description below for you guys. Also, if you
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live in the city of Calgary on the west side of Calgary, I, Wyatt Claypool, I'm running for the
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Conservative Party nomination for Calgary Signal Hill. This is what the writing will look like after
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boundaries get redrawn. So if you live in this area of property, buy a membership, visit my website.
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Also, you can donate to the National Telegraph's legal fund. We have a billionaire developer suing us
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for no reason. It's been more than two years this lawsuit's been going on, and they still have not
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provided evidence. We have defamed them or said anything inaccurate. All of our reporting was
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mostly based off a Globe and Mail article anyways. So it's just someone trying to bully us because,
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you know, lawfare exists and people can use the legal system to attack people they don't like.
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Anyways, that should be it for me today, guys. I hope you like the new set. Hopefully it doesn't feel
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like you're at a crap on the wall restaurant, but I think I generally like it. So hopefully you guys