The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - BC voters are shifting quickly toward Conservatives

00:00:00.000 As we get into the last 16 days of the British Columbia provincial election, we're seeing a significant shift with BC voters towards the Conservative Party and John Rustad.

00:00:12.020 This isn't just the Main Street tracking poll I've been talking about over the last few days, this is every pollster shifting towards the BC Conservatives.

00:00:21.840 And it's simply because people don't trust Premier David Eby and the BC NDP.

00:00:27.340 For an example, I want to talk more about the numbers a bit later, but here's a taste of how good it's been for the Conservatives.

00:00:33.480 The last poll Polara put out, about a week and a half ago, showed the BC NDP up three points.

00:00:41.060 As of yesterday, the Conservatives are up three points. That's a six-point swing in a very short period of time.

00:00:48.760 Usually week to week, you see one or two-point shifts between the two parties that are mainly contending the election.

00:00:55.160 You don't see a six-point swing unless people are very much waking up to what the election's about and realizing that they cannot trust the BC NDP to change, because they're not going to change.

00:01:07.380 Every significant policy shift the NDP has undertaken has all happened within the writ period, because it's just election promises that are trying to get them back into office, and there's not a significant chance they're actually going to follow through.

00:01:20.720 If they cared about doing it, they would have done it before the election, not announce it right in the middle, and then pretend that you maybe didn't hear them say it later on if they happen to win again.

00:01:30.780 And so before I get to the actual party top-line polling, I want to talk about some other numbers that are demonstrating why David Eby is suffering so much in this election.

00:01:42.140 Then I want to talk a little bit about the debate and other aspects about David Eby as a person that I think are turning off so many voters as they're being exposed more and more to him.

00:01:52.460 The polls will show you that he actually has a positive approval rating, and Rustad has a negative approval rating.

00:01:58.820 In my mind, that really just demonstrates that a lot of moderate and even conservative voters will give the benefit of the doubt to Rustad that he's probably a nice, not Rustad, but Eby, that he's probably a nice guy, but they don't think he's doing a good job.

00:02:11.140 Whereas with Rustad, because there's so much negative media attention on him over oftentimes absolutely nothing, that you get every single NDPer and moderates thinking that, well, the correct answer is to say I don't like him, even though many of them plan to vote for him.

00:02:26.520 But this is why the NDPer are not doing well, despite Eby supposedly having some decent goodwill with certain voters.

00:02:34.340 B.C. Those who say X is harder now than it was two years ago.

00:02:39.640 Buying a house, 79% of people say it's harder than it was two years ago.

00:02:44.400 Saving money for retirement, 75%.

00:02:46.960 Paying for university and college, 59%.

00:02:50.440 Finding a job, 54%.

00:02:53.460 And that doesn't mean that on the flip side, people are saying it's gotten easier.

00:02:57.860 It's probably that it's just stayed the same.

00:03:00.120 And staying the same isn't exactly good when these problems were already big issues two years ago.

00:03:06.640 They were frankly big issues seven to ten years ago.

00:03:09.860 You know, but who's counting anymore, I suppose?

00:03:12.700 David Eby can keep pretending that this election's about personalities.

00:03:16.840 That it's about whether or not you trust some of these conservative candidates because they tweeted something four years ago,

00:03:22.460 or they made genuinely a silly statement during COVID about something.

00:03:26.600 Nobody really cares about that.

00:03:28.360 They care about the person who's going to lower their taxes, make it easier to build homes,

00:03:32.620 that are going to make it so that we actually have new resource jobs opening up,

00:03:37.120 approving mines, approving LNG pipelines.

00:03:39.600 That's what they want.

00:03:40.860 So the NDP can act as buttoned down and professional as possible,

00:03:44.400 but they're still the people giving crack pipes to teenagers.

00:03:47.300 They're still the people flooding the streets and safe supply drugs,

00:03:50.820 attacking the police, not letting them do their jobs,

00:03:53.480 increasing taxes, attacking the resource sector.

00:03:56.740 They're those people.

00:03:57.640 So they can think that this whole campaign is going to be about the crazy candidates the conservatives are running. 0.99

00:04:04.020 They're the crazy people in government. 0.98

00:04:05.860 They're actually doing crazy things. 1.00

00:04:07.980 So trying to accuse anyone else of it just makes you look more like a complete buffoon and hypocrite. 0.99

00:04:14.080 They, yeah, a candidate might have said something ill-advised three years ago for the conservatives, 0.99

00:04:18.240 but it's the NDP who've actually been doing the ill-advised things.

00:04:23.140 Regardless, I just want to sort of move into some of these video clips from the debate

00:04:28.160 and from an interview David Eby did with an economic group.

00:04:31.900 So this is from the radio debate that David Eby, John Rustad, and Sonia Firstenow,

00:04:38.540 Sonia being the Green Party leader, did on a radio station with a bit of a film portion that you could watch online.

00:04:45.000 And this was David Eby's big gambit because I'm not trying to straw man the guy by taking his worst answer,

00:04:51.960 his worst play during the debate.

00:04:55.760 This was probably his best play.

00:04:57.240 And the fact that, in my mind, it falls so flat with voters is a big problem for Eby

00:05:02.780 because this is the best he had right here.

00:05:04.660 And, John, I'm going to ask you this question.

00:05:05.760 The other candidate on the North Coast, his name is Chris Sankey.

00:05:09.220 He's tweeting out that COVID vaccines cause AIDS.

00:05:13.000 So do you agree with your candidates?

00:05:16.640 Like, do you find that acceptable that your candidate would do that?

00:05:19.200 How would you recruit?

00:05:20.180 And I know, you know, I just want to make sure that you know that this is a real thing.

00:05:23.760 I'm going to pass you a copy of the tweet right there.

00:05:26.500 And how do we recruit the doctors and nurses that we need?

00:05:29.860 If you've got candidates out there that want to sit around the cabinet table,

00:05:32.780 they want to represent their communities, they say that COVID vaccines cause AIDS.

00:05:36.080 Thank you.

00:05:36.380 Open debate, John Rustin.

00:05:37.600 Thank you very much.

00:05:38.640 Well, the first thing that we will do, of course, is make sure that we get rid of the mandates

00:05:41.780 and the silly restrictions that have been put in so we can actually hire back our health care workers.

00:05:45.720 Well, that's already done, John.

00:05:46.780 There are close to 10,000 health workers, and it's not done.

00:05:48.820 The mandates that have been brought in place by David Eby, the strict restrictions we brought in,

00:05:53.400 will not bring back the health care workers.

00:05:55.040 We also, quite frankly, need to get rid of Bill 36, which is extremely draconian on health care workers.

00:06:00.540 And I'm going to end it there.

00:06:01.800 You can see it goes on for another couple of minutes.

00:06:04.380 I will be linking that clip in the description below.

00:06:07.740 But you can even just see John Rustin smoothly brush past David Eby.

00:06:11.500 His attack on Chris Sankey is something that doesn't matter.

00:06:15.200 Because guess what?

00:06:16.020 Chris Sankey probably had retweeted or shared something during COVID

00:06:20.020 in the middle of the height of frustration and how draconian the government had been working.

00:06:24.940 It's also not good strategy for the NDP to be attacking a Indigenous candidate for not trusting the government on medical advice and mandates,

00:06:34.060 considering that that has not been a great history between the Canadian government and Indigenous people

00:06:39.640 when it came to forced medical treatments and whatnot.

00:06:45.520 So, and what you see right there is David Eby wants to make it a personality fight.

00:06:49.900 But Chris Sankey said this.

00:06:51.420 Chris Sankey did that.

00:06:52.880 Nobody cares. 0.98

00:06:53.680 Nobody actually gives a crap. 0.88

00:06:55.420 It's that David Eby isn't even letting health care workers actually come back to work. 0.95

00:06:59.060 Yeah, they got rid of the vaccine mandates,

00:07:00.580 but they replaced it with a series of another dozen or so hoops that you have to jump through in order to return to work.

00:07:06.740 And predictably, not a lot of nurses and doctors have returned to work who had been thrown out a couple of years ago.

00:07:12.980 And so now we're in this, like right now,

00:07:16.980 BC voters are looking at John Rustin smoothly going past Eby's question or his accusation, I guess,

00:07:25.480 and looking at Eby as an unserious leader.

00:07:27.140 He's the premier and he's acting like some left-wing, like smear artist, like hit job guy.

00:07:35.440 This is not like professional.

00:07:37.340 This is not premier-like.

00:07:38.820 He looks desperate.

00:07:40.160 And this is only highlighting the fact that David Eby doesn't have anything to say on policy. 1.00

00:07:44.200 His policy sucks. 1.00

00:07:45.660 His record sucks. 1.00

00:07:46.980 And so he has to go after every single little thing he happened to not like that a conservative candidate said. 0.98

00:07:52.140 But now I just want to quickly go over and jump into this next clip because I think this one is quite telling about David Eby on policy.

00:08:01.540 So he's at the Greater Vancouver Board of Trade.

00:08:03.940 And as Cosman from, I believe, I'm actually, I think he's still at the True North right now.

00:08:10.540 He says that David Eby basically starts squirming when he can't answer how he's going to end up paying for his billion dollar housing relief program when the province already has a $9 billion deficit.

00:08:22.880 He just has no credibility on serious issues.

00:08:25.340 You made a pretty significant announcement around the tax cut for the average family, about $1,000 or so.

00:08:33.440 And so we've done some of the costing.

00:08:34.960 It looks to be about $1.5 billion.

00:08:37.980 How do you intend to pay for that?

00:08:39.940 Yeah, it's about a billion dollars.

00:08:42.820 The math is off by half a billion.

00:08:44.220 Yeah, no, no.

00:08:45.200 It's a significant financial commitment.

00:08:49.280 Right now we're seeing that people are really struggling.

00:08:51.740 And they need that additional support to get through.

00:08:54.240 And what you'll see from us is steadily declining deficits and a return to balance.

00:09:00.540 But we're not going to make people pay for that.

00:09:03.500 So where will that revenue come from if it's just over a billion dollars then to make up for that?

00:09:08.340 Well, we'll continue to grow the economy to make sure that we're showing growth that increases overall financial support for the province, which enables us to do work like this.

00:09:17.840 But also, over time, as you see revenue come on from different initiatives that we're bringing forward around economic development, we're showing both declining deficits as well as a return to balance.

00:09:31.200 And let's be clear, they haven't been reducing the deficit.

00:09:35.320 What David Eby is doing here is just a bait and switch of saying that, well, obviously, we've been economically responsible.

00:09:42.760 We can afford another billion dollars in the deficit because we've been shrinking the deficit.

00:09:47.060 They haven't.

00:09:47.960 They have projections saying that they'll shrink the deficit.

00:09:50.200 But that's not actually shrinking the deficit.

00:09:52.660 That's just saying in a theoretical world where you don't add a bunch of new spending, technically, per capita, the deficit will start going down in terms of its size compared to the economy.

00:10:04.060 No business owner, no person who's paying high tax rates are going to look at this and say, this guy's probably not going to slap me with a higher tax bill at the end of the year.

00:10:14.660 They're probably not going to have municipalities greatly overestimate my property value so that they can tax me even harder.

00:10:23.580 Nobody believes that this guy is going to somehow be financially responsible right after this election like he's seen the light.

00:10:29.920 He obviously has not.

00:10:31.440 But now I want to move into some of the polling.

00:10:34.620 The polling hasn't gotten bad for David Eby.

00:10:37.380 And this first one is actually not that bad for him.

00:10:41.180 But again, it's all showing that things are shifting in favor of the conservatives.

00:10:45.740 This was one of the weaker Main Street results.

00:10:48.420 And it's still showing that the Green Party is actually coming up and maintaining a lot of their support from 2020, which means that they're going to eat into a lot of the NDP's voters in the greater Vancouver area.

00:11:03.360 You get this one from Leger, 46 to 43 BC conservatives to NDP.

00:11:09.900 Polera here, 44 to 41 for the conservatives.

00:11:13.280 And let me tell you, in all these polls, there are still a lot of people who are undecided.

00:11:18.780 And they've been splitting, from what I see, two to one towards the BC conservative party.

00:11:24.800 This is Main Street's new one from today, 43 to 41.

00:11:28.140 But now I just want to go into some of the detailed results from this Main Street poll, because this is what should be terrifying to the BC NDP.

00:11:38.320 The general theory, if you want to get reelected, is that you should be maintaining 80 to 95 percent of the voters that you had last election committed to voting for you this one.

00:11:50.160 Do you know where the BC NDP are at?

00:11:52.160 I want to get a bring up on screen for the shock reveal, 64 percent, 64.8 percent of Horgan NDP voters from 2020 are voting David Evie this election.

00:12:05.600 And there's only 5.1 percent more undecided.

00:12:07.940 So even if they ate up that entire undecided vote, it's not going to push them much over.

00:12:13.320 It's not even going to get them past 70.

00:12:15.980 My friend Chris from the Great Canadian Bagel podcast says, lower 70s are already, you're dead.

00:12:22.780 You're dead if you're in the lower 70s.

00:12:25.100 Maybe you're thinking, well, maybe they can get some BC liberals to vote for them.

00:12:28.620 Well, the problem is the conservatives are winning the BC liberals harder than the BC NDP are winning their own 2020 voters.

00:12:36.100 And the BC NDP are not even getting as many liberals voting for them as there are NDP voters saying that they're going to be voting for Rustad and the BC conservatives.

00:12:45.180 This is just what death looks like.

00:12:48.180 This is what electoral ballot box death looks like in polling statistics.

00:12:53.160 21.7 percent of Green voters are voting conservative.

00:12:56.640 Only 13 and a half are going to go towards the NDP from 2020.

00:13:01.360 Another party, that really doesn't matter.

00:13:03.440 It's a small sample size.

00:13:04.340 I'm going to skip over that.

00:13:05.020 But didn't remember, didn't vote.

00:13:06.880 I guarantee this is mostly just didn't vote.

00:13:08.840 I doubt there's that many people who truly don't remember who they voted for.

00:13:11.660 There are still 27.2 percent of those people who are undecided.

00:13:15.440 Makes sense.

00:13:16.000 They didn't vote.

00:13:16.540 They don't have strong loyalties.

00:13:18.400 But already, including the undecided, more than half of them are going to be voting for the conservative party.

00:13:23.860 Only 14 and a half percent of people are going to be voting for the BC NDP.

00:13:28.760 There's just no more bases of support for the NDP to draw out.

00:13:33.200 They just have to hope that 100 percent of their base shows up in votes because they don't got a lot left.

00:13:40.320 And in a change election, it's very difficult to get the incumbent government's apathetic voter base to actually show up.

00:13:47.760 And unlike Stephen Harper, David Uwe doesn't even have a good economy to run on like Harper did in 2015.

00:13:54.380 And Harper still lost.

00:13:55.800 Harper still lost because they just didn't run a good election against Justin Trudeau.

00:14:00.080 And Justin Trudeau captured that change narrative.

00:14:02.720 Justin Trudeau is obviously a terrible politician and prime minister. 0.98

00:14:06.720 But it shows you if you get the winds of change in your sails, it's hard to stop you, especially when you've sucked as the premier. 0.98

00:14:14.060 And that is exactly what David Eby is. 0.99

00:14:16.660 He's a terrible, sucky premier. 0.96

00:14:19.200 And so him trying to go after the conservatives on the attack, it just falls flat because he has no credibility. 0.98

00:14:25.340 You can attack somebody if people think that you're good at the thing in terms of governing in this case.

00:14:30.980 You're a good governor.

00:14:32.680 You're a good premier.

00:14:33.500 You're a good politician.

00:14:34.380 You have good policy.

00:14:35.480 So when you attack the other guys as having bad policy or bad candidates, people think that you might know what you're talking about.

00:14:41.860 David Eby doesn't know what he's talking about because he's an unhinged radical leftist.

00:14:46.100 I'm wondering what's going to happen on October 7th when you're probably going to have a bunch of Hamas crazies flooding the streets of Vancouver and Victoria and the NDP are going to be too flat-footed to condemn those people because they need their votes. 0.95

00:14:59.220 They need the radical anti-Semitic people's votes. 0.73

00:15:01.560 So they're going to stay absolutely silent so that the Green Party doesn't absorb all them. 0.99

00:15:06.820 Nuts what's going on right now, but it's just the state of affairs that David Eby has built himself.

00:15:13.140 The conservatives, I think that they're going to have way better turnout than even the polls are probably predicting because I think the conservatives are tapping into a sort of voter that hasn't probably not just not showed up in 2020.

00:15:24.340 They probably didn't vote in 2017, 2013, 2009.

00:15:29.300 They haven't voted for probably a decade because who are you voting for, liberals or the NDP?

00:15:35.040 And although the liberals used to be a big tent party the way social credit was, in the past three election cycles, they were mostly just a federal liberal party for the province, just the provincial version of the feds.

00:15:45.680 And now that there's a real conservative provincial party, all the models that are showing the conservatives winning right now, like I even want to go check what the Main Street tracking poll shows in terms of its model.

00:15:57.260 Yeah, they show the conservatives winning 55 seats to 37 NDP with one for the Greens.

00:16:01.580 I think that even that might be underselling the conservatives right now, because there's a lot of federal conservative voters who probably don't vote provincial, who will now vote provincial, and they're going to come out in significant numbers because they identify Rustad as a poly of ally.

00:16:17.240 One of the biggest mistakes the media made early on, trying to cut the brakes from the conservatives, is when Angelo Isidoro and Anthony Koch, the manager of the conservative campaign and the main spokesperson for the campaign, went after the far left publication, the tie-ee, and of course the very liberal biased publication, or the CBC, who needs no introduction.

00:16:39.340 They started attacking the conservatives, the B.C. conservatives as just like poly of, because they're attacking the media, which is ridiculous.

00:16:47.400 They're pushing back on unfair questions.

00:16:49.400 And I think they thought they were going to hurt the B.C. conservatives with this coverage.

00:16:53.460 Why do you think it would hurt the B.C. conservatives?

00:16:55.960 To compare them to a very popular federal politician.

00:16:59.640 The federal conservatives poll as high as 53% in British Columbia, and you think the B.C. conservatives don't want to be compared to the federal conservatives?

00:17:09.940 It's mind-boggling how bad the left is at running campaigns these days, or at least the leftist media is at influencing campaigns, because they've been playing on easy mode in provinces like British Columbia for so long, where no matter who won, they basically got what they wanted.

00:17:24.600 That now that the conservatives are a real oppositional force to the very corrupt liberal and NDP establishment, that they're swinging wildly at them, hitting them with accusations and attacks that only make the B.C. conservatives stronger and more popular.

00:17:41.160 Anyways, that's it for me today, guys.

00:17:43.540 If you live in B.C., go help your local B.C. campaign.

00:17:46.780 Every campaign needs more door knockers. 0.83

00:17:48.740 Every campaign needs more signed people, needs phone callers.

00:17:51.580 Go help them out if you actually want the B.C. conservatives to win.

00:17:55.000 I don't really think they even need exactly a lot of donations these days.

00:17:58.200 They just need boots on the ground.

00:17:59.820 Please be those boots if you can.

00:18:01.520 If you're not living in B.C., if you want to help support my show, go to the description below or the pinned comment where I have my legal fund pinned.

00:18:09.820 Any amount of money helps because we're fighting back against false defamation lawsuits that we got from somebody who still hasn't even filed any evidence to actually prove that we've defamed him.

00:18:19.800 Because we didn't.

00:18:20.480 We literally referenced other reporting about the guy that was years old, but he didn't want to see them because he was scared of them.

00:18:27.460 But he thought he could try and bully me at the time because I was only 22 years old.

00:18:32.180 I don't like bullies, so we've been fighting them in court or at least through the legal process ever since.

00:18:37.500 And we're almost up on the third year mark.

00:18:40.420 That's it for me, guys.

00:18:41.680 Have a good one.

The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - October 03, 2024

BC voters are shifting quickly toward Conservatives

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