The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - Beating the Liberals requires fixing the Conservatives (ft. Scott Hayward)

00:00:00.000 Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here. We just had it announced recently that the Conservative Party of Canada will be having its national convention with a leadership review taking place in January 2026 in my home city of Calgary.

00:00:16.240 There's going to be a lot of movement leading up to that, a lot of dynamics kind of shifting in the party leading up to that convention and leadership vote as both Pierre Polyev and his team jockey for position as well as people who are trying to oppose him start trying to organize people to show up at convention and vote against him or make changes to the Constitution.

00:00:39.320 And to break this down, a very complicated subject, I want to bring in somebody I know has a very neutral view on the party from the outside, and that would be Scott Hayward from the pro-life organization right now. How are you doing, Scott?

00:00:55.560 Doing pretty good. Thanks, Wyatt, for having me on. Really great to see you again.

00:00:59.100 I know you can have a sober-minded, neutral view of how political parties operate because naturally the organization you and Alyssa Globe operate, you know, you kind of are partially in favor of the Conservative Party in terms of it's the most pro-life party in Canada, but you're not strangers from having to make criticisms of the party historically when they're not doing the right thing.

00:01:25.800 You'd maybe criticize the Liberal Party more, but they don't even attempt to be pro-life, so oftentimes they're not even much of a subject to discuss.

00:01:34.680 But I was just wondering, I guess, because you follow these things pretty closely, from, I guess, in a nutshell, for those who maybe don't want to watch us talk about convention politics too much and they just want to know what the deal is and move on,

00:01:49.560 what would you say the mood in the party is right now, and what would you predict is going to be an outcome of a leadership review at this point?

00:01:57.980 Yeah, just so people know out there, and I'm sure a lot of your viewers and listeners know this already, but for those that don't, just in case,

00:02:05.080 a leadership review at the next biennial, because it happens every two years,

00:02:11.000 policy convention for the Conservative Party of Canada, and this is for most political parties federally and provincially as well,

00:02:16.640 immediately after a general election, in this case, a general federal election,

00:02:22.060 we'll have a leadership review only if the party fails to form government, which was the case on April 28th, 2025,

00:02:31.040 about almost two months ago as of today of this recording.

00:02:34.720 So that's why there's going to be a leadership review.

00:02:37.160 There was going to be a leadership review automatically of Andrew Scheer when the party failed to form government in 2019,

00:02:43.680 and same for Aaron O'Toole in 2021 with that policy convention, probably not happening until 2023.

00:02:53.100 That was the big controversy, right?

00:02:54.800 Because they had an online convention in March of 2021, and it's biannual, like I said, so it's every two years.

00:03:01.920 And so that's when caucus had to step in through the Reform Act and kind of move the process along.

00:03:06.380 So this is not, what I'm trying to say is this is not, this is not something extraordinary.

00:03:13.120 This is not something, you know, out of the normal.

00:03:15.400 This is something that's been in the party constitution for quite some time.

00:03:18.320 So he will face the question from delegates.

00:03:21.500 So the people who get to vote on this question are members of the Conservative Party of Canada,

00:03:26.320 who are voted by their fellow party members in each of the 343 federal ridings across Canada.

00:03:33.000 And each riding sends 12 delegates.

00:03:36.540 There are 10 delegates elected by party members at a delegates election meeting.

00:03:41.260 And there are two ex officio delegates.

00:03:43.020 One is the president of the Electoral District Association for the party.

00:03:47.500 And the other is the member of parliament or the candidate of record if the party didn't win in that riding.

00:03:54.800 So you're talking about probably upwards around 3,500, maybe 4,000 voting delegates at the convention.

00:04:02.740 Since it's, you know, the end of January in Calgary, I'm going to guess that it's probably going to be closer to, you know, 2,500, maybe 3,000 delegates.

00:04:11.220 And in order for Pierre Polyev to stay on as party leader, he just needs 50% plus one, technically, for there not to be an automatic, I guess, starting of a leadership election within the party.

00:04:26.840 Now, of course, as we all know, typically most political party leaders want more than just 50% plus one.

00:04:34.560 You know, they're looking for ideally a number that starts with an eight or higher.

00:04:38.500 I think Danielle Smith had 90% plus, the most recent one in Alberta.

00:04:45.240 And a lot of provincial parties, this is the case, they have an annual general meeting as opposed to every two years.

00:04:50.140 A little bit easier for provincial parties, right?

00:04:52.000 Because you just have delegates from a province and not from across the country come to get together.

00:04:57.480 So, you know, Pierre probably wants something that starts with an eight at least.

00:05:01.880 I would say, you know, kind of 75% would be the minimum.

00:05:06.000 Can he get that today?

00:05:07.160 I would say probably he could get 75% today.

00:05:10.940 Can he get that at the end of January 2026 in Calgary?

00:05:15.580 That is a question.

00:05:17.620 Like, you know.

00:05:19.180 And people have to realize, too, you couldn't go online and in comment sections and see that everyone really likes Pierre Polyev.

00:05:26.580 But the thing is that that doesn't almost matter once we're going on to the riding-by-riding level and each riding is sending, in theory, the same number of delegates.

00:05:37.320 You know, some ridings, if they're really far away and they don't care too much, might only send five.

00:05:41.240 But if this becomes a convention that you could say is overrepresented by a lot of urban riding delegates who, in a previous video, I characterized as potentially being the very pragmatic red Tories who would say, well, we'd like a Doug Ford to lead this party.

00:05:58.660 If they show up, because, again, Pierre cannot have a – it's not like the UCP in Alberta where if you're a member, you can buy a delegate pass and you can show up.

00:06:07.280 This is that it's limited numbers.

00:06:09.720 So if there happens to just be an ideological kind of mixture in certain riding associations that cause people to have, like, very obtusely left-wing opinions, you could have a bunch of people show up to dedicatedly be voting no.

00:06:25.700 And, again, it doesn't take you that many in a room of only 3,500 people to start dropping below 80%.

00:06:31.500 But what would you say, I guess, is maybe this is an easier thing and then I'll give you something else, but what would you say is the magic number that Pierre Polly probably needs to be able to survive?

00:06:43.460 Because he's going to have to hold on for a couple more years before there's a new election.

00:06:47.920 So it's not just, you know, let's give him another shot in six months.

00:06:51.620 This is going to be – we're going to give him another year and a half at least based on when I think the next election is going to happen.

00:06:57.480 And then what do you think is the kind of competing interests and factions right now in this convention?

00:07:03.560 Yeah, I think in my mind at least, like, the minimum, the absolute bare minimum he would have to meet to feel relatively comfortable going forward would be 75%, three-quarters of the party.

00:07:13.920 So if you think about it, in the leadership race when he was facing four other opponents on the ballot, he got 68% of the vote for the party members right across the country of the, you know, 250,000 or however many cast a ballot in that leadership race.

00:07:28.760 So now he's not against anybody, right?

00:07:31.600 There's no other opponent on the ballot.

00:07:33.360 The only thing that says on a – and it's a secret ballot, right?

00:07:36.980 So the only thing they will say on the piece of paper is do you support the Conservative Party of Canada beginning a leadership election immediately?

00:07:47.940 Something to that nature I think is within the Constitution.

00:07:49.820 So it's not really a question about Pierre.

00:07:51.800 It's do you want to have a leadership race?

00:07:53.300 Because in theory, if, you know, 50% plus one do vote that way, Pierre could run in that leadership race.

00:07:59.760 I doubt that would happen, and I doubt that he would.

00:08:02.200 So I think 75% is kind of your minimum.

00:08:04.960 A number that starts with eight.

00:08:06.380 I think he's really solid.

00:08:08.140 And, of course, the higher you go, the better it is.

00:08:10.340 The different factions going to convention, like you said, it's not just anyone can show up, any party member.

00:08:15.940 You have to be elected at delegate selection meetings, which will probably start happening toward the end of this summer, certainly, definitely after Labor Day.

00:08:24.300 And then people go to convention for different reasons.

00:08:26.720 Some might go to convention to support Pierre in that leadership vote.

00:08:29.960 Some might go to that convention to vote against Pierre in that leadership vote.

00:08:33.780 I think most people who go to convention, there's a group that just like to go to conventions,

00:08:38.260 and it's a great opportunity for other Conservatives to see other Conservatives they haven't seen in years

00:08:43.580 and just have a good time and go to the hospitality suites and have some good discussion on policy and things of this nature.

00:08:50.460 There are people who go to convention that are really focused on the internal party rules,

00:08:54.060 and we'll talk about nominations and stuff like that, and they're there to do business.

00:08:58.600 And they might be a little bit like me, and they're a little more agnostic, let's say, about the leadership question.

00:09:03.000 And then there's people there for policy, although I would suggest that the policy, official policy declaration of the Conservative Party of Canada is actually quite solid.

00:09:14.040 And there isn't a whole lot I would, there's like one really big one I would change, like the one pro-abortion policy.

00:09:18.940 But other than that, there's not a whole lot I would change about it.

00:09:20.780 So you have people that have different motivations that are there.

00:09:24.440 I don't hear of anything, and I'm certainly not involved, and our organization's not involved, in any kind of movement to get rid of Pierre.

00:09:33.360 I think if Pierre, you know, doesn't make that 75% and gets a little bit lower, I don't think it's because people are organizing against him.

00:09:42.800 I think it'll just because people who are there are just kind of, I don't know if this guy has what it takes to beat the Liberals and Mark Carney.

00:09:49.780 And it's really hard to determine if that's going to, like, how much is that going to be of delegates that are there?

00:09:56.780 Like, in, you know, the middle of June in 2025, January, but yeah, January 2026, right?

00:10:03.180 There's a half a year of a Carney Liberal government that has yet to happen.

00:10:06.840 Like, you know, we can kind of look at the polling trends post-election right now.

00:10:10.860 And can we even project that to January?

00:10:13.100 It's kind of hard to say that because obviously the Carney government is in a honeymoon.

00:10:17.320 At the same time, the Carney government is very, very active and very successful so far on its files.

00:10:24.460 Like, they're operating pretty quickly.

00:10:26.900 Does that continue to generate and to get more successes?

00:10:30.160 So I think there's a bit of a danger because, like you said, it doesn't take that many to go to below 25%.

00:10:36.180 If we're going to say, okay, there's 3,000 delegates that are there, let's say all the delegates are going to vote.

00:10:41.620 Because you don't have to vote as a delegate if you don't want to on this leadership review question.

00:10:46.700 You can even spoil your ballot if you'd like.

00:10:48.900 But let's say all 3,000 delegates vote and they don't spoil their ballots.

00:10:54.460 Well, if we're going to have 25% of them vote the other way, what's that?

00:10:58.600 That's 600.

00:10:59.300 That's 700 or so.

00:11:00.960 Yeah, 750 out of 3,000 would be 25%.

00:11:03.520 Yeah, of those delegates, like, you know, you'd probably have at least a few hundred people that are going there to get rid of Pierre because that's their motivation.

00:11:14.440 I don't think it'd be much more than that.

00:11:15.800 But then you only need to double that number.

00:11:17.400 And the biggest thing that he's going to have to fight and the biggest thing I think he's struggling with personally right now is just people are just apathetic toward him and the party as an extension.

00:11:28.700 And here's the thing, because, again, when I laid out in a video previously, I said, like, there's a couple no factions.

00:11:34.800 There is the Doug Ford, Corey Tanike, no faction, and they're saying no because they want a winner as the leader.

00:11:42.140 And the winner apparently is Doug Ford, even though Doug Ford wins because he has no opponents.

00:11:47.420 In Ontario, Ontario politics is on super easy mode for Doug Ford.

00:11:51.640 He's running against, like, Stephen Del Duca, Kathleen Wynne, and Bonnie Crombie.

00:11:55.860 This is like, honestly, it's kind of like Alberta right now.

00:11:58.940 It's like Nahid Nenshi is running against Danielle Smith and completely falling on his face.

00:12:03.440 So I think that faction is what I'd consider completely unreasonable.

00:12:07.840 They think, like, let's just become the Liberal Party, then we can win.

00:12:11.460 It's like, well, then what's the point of winning?

00:12:13.640 But then the other side, and, like, you can jump in here if you want, but I was saying the side that poses the greater threat to Pierre Polyev is the soft nose who are saying, I want things changed in HQ.

00:12:27.820 I want the way nominations and party candidate appointments that are, the way that they're done to be changed.

00:12:34.800 And I like Polyev, but I might have to vote no if this stuff doesn't change or he's unwilling to fire some people.

00:12:40.580 That's actually kind of the greater risk.

00:12:42.660 It's funny how if he actually, not that he, I don't think he can lose this thing, but if it gets close or it starts falling below 70%,

00:12:51.000 it's not going to have as much to do with Pierre as much as it's going to have to do with HQ staff.

00:12:57.580 Which, at the end of the day, is Pierre's call.

00:13:00.220 So, like, he is tied to that, right?

00:13:02.860 He's not forced to keep Jenny Byrne.

00:13:05.060 He's not forced to, you know, be satisfied with the people that are hired in the Conservative Party of Canada headquarters by the Conservative Fund Canada,

00:13:14.240 which, of course, he has sole discretion on who's on that board, which, my understanding, is only a three-member board that controls, like, a $100 million a year organization.

00:13:22.060 The other thing to regard, like, someone described this to me very well.

00:13:30.280 So, like, you can't attribute this to me if people think that this is a good description, but I think it's quite apt.

00:13:36.260 The people who go to convention, right?

00:13:38.660 Those party members who are attending convention, they're too high on the pecking order of the party in so much in that they know too much, right?

00:13:46.280 They know kind of, oh, you know, the nomination process was a bunch of BS.

00:13:51.780 And, you know, dragging 90-plus ridings that didn't have a nomination into the writ period so that, as per the party rules,

00:14:01.940 which is the case for most political parties federally and provincially,

00:14:04.960 the executive director, the leader, gets to make an appointment and there's no nomination race,

00:14:09.960 which is, you know, gross negligence, as you were describing on your video the other day,

00:14:15.080 of, you know, you're asking, banging the drums in the autumn of 2024 to have an election and you're not at all prepared.

00:14:22.280 No, they were prepared.

00:14:23.340 They were just purposely, you know, dragging this into the writ period so that they could have their favorites that are appointed.

00:14:28.540 So, the people who go to convention know enough that you can't BS them on that stuff.

00:14:34.240 At the same time, the people going to convention are not high enough in the party that they can be bought and paid for.

00:14:39.540 They're not lobbyists so that they have no financial interest.

00:14:43.260 They're not going to see any financial benefit.

00:14:44.880 They don't own companies that are going to be paid for by the party because not all 3,000 delegates are, you know,

00:14:51.380 making commercials and running door-knocking campaigns, like have companies that run door-knocking campaigns

00:14:56.420 or calling campaigns or things of this nature.

00:14:58.280 So, they have no financial vested interest in it.

00:15:00.740 They're literally invested in the health of the party.

00:15:04.380 And which is...

00:15:05.280 Also, a lot of these people have been around since sometimes the 90s or the 80s.

00:15:09.080 In conservative politics.

00:15:10.340 So, they are not going to be sentimental about who's oftentimes leading the party.

00:15:15.920 And this doesn't mean people are cold either.

00:15:18.380 Again, I would say if you were probably to do a poll of conservative party members of what they think about poly,

00:15:26.420 if you'd probably have a 90% approval rating.

00:15:28.740 And you do see that.

00:15:29.560 That 10% who disapproves is going to be disproportionately the people who've been sitting on boards for decades.

00:15:36.740 And when something's not being done right, they're far more likely to raise their hand and say,

00:15:40.500 well, what the heck, guys?

00:15:42.060 And so, but, you know, so they're not going to be exactly dazzled by set pieces and theatrics.

00:15:48.060 They're going to want to peek behind the curtain and say, why is this person still employed after failing?

00:15:53.420 Why is this practice not being done?

00:15:55.920 And so, I would say a big risk to Polyev is that in the next several months before January,

00:16:02.120 if nothing changes about how the party operates, it's going to be harder to convince people to say,

00:16:07.620 let them have another chance because we'll beat the Liberals next time, having changed nothing about how we work.

00:16:13.620 You're basically just betting on the NDP comes back, takes most of their vote from the Liberals,

00:16:20.720 and then you somehow win.

00:16:22.060 Because my pet peeve in politics right now is hearing the line, we're the government in waiting.

00:16:28.200 We're going to sit here and wait for Mark Carney to implode.

00:16:31.540 And you're right.

00:16:32.740 Do I like Mark Carney's policy in general?

00:16:35.740 Not at all.

00:16:36.580 At the same time, he's very good at doing things that make him seem moderate, that make him seem successful.

00:16:43.220 Look, he's moving on all these files.

00:16:45.780 And again, is he a good prime minister exactly?

00:16:48.680 Do I think in the long run it's going to prove that he's good?

00:16:51.240 No.

00:16:52.020 But he's slightly better than Trudeau in many areas.

00:16:54.900 Maybe even, like, significantly better in certain areas,

00:16:57.640 like cranking the carbon tax down to zero and committing to now getting rid of it.

00:17:01.540 You could say he stole that from the conservatives to a non-sophisticate who's barely following politics day-to-day.

00:17:08.220 They mostly follow entertainment, but they heard the carbon tax went away.

00:17:11.660 Guess who they remember got rid of it?

00:17:13.360 Carney.

00:17:14.060 They're not going to sift through the ashes and find out that the conservative party had been, like, you know,

00:17:20.660 banging the drum against it for years.

00:17:22.840 They're just going to see that Carney did the right thing.

00:17:25.160 And that's the dangerous part.

00:17:26.520 Carney is not spectacular in the sense that he's not going to explode in a spectacular fashion.

00:17:32.800 The man is either going to succeed and everyone's going to be like, oh, that seems, you know, he seems to be doing a good job.

00:17:38.400 Or he's going, or any failures are just going to seem like bureaucratic failures.

00:17:43.200 Yeah, I think we can project a few things right now, right?

00:17:47.180 So, like, if you ask me, like, the convention is today and kind of having a sense of, you know,

00:17:52.040 who usually attends the conventions and who would be there,

00:17:54.340 I would say that Pierre Polyev would probably get around 80% plus minus a little bit on that question, right?

00:18:00.700 I don't know, like, he could grow that 80% to, like, an 85%, maybe even a 90%.

00:18:08.060 But he would have to make some very difficult decisions.

00:18:10.760 He'd have to probably get rid of people like Jenny Byrne, which would be very difficult

00:18:14.500 because they're very, very close for a variety of reasons.

00:18:17.300 And they kind of grew up together ideologically and otherwise within the Conservative Party of Canada

00:18:22.760 back from, you know, the Reform Canadian Alliance days.

00:18:26.560 That's a very, like, they've known each other for well over 20 years.

00:18:30.080 So, like, that's a very big ask of him to make.

00:18:33.100 It's a very personal thing for him to do.

00:18:36.340 But, you know, you kind of have to make those decisions.

00:18:39.100 I would also say, like, to get back to the carbon tax, where you're probably right of, you know,

00:18:43.200 the 20 million or so Canadians that voted in the last general federal election a couple months ago,

00:18:48.120 already within, like, a couple months, you had a number of people saying,

00:18:51.460 well, that guy, you know, put the rate to zero and got rid of the carbon tax, that guy being Carney.

00:18:55.640 And one of the reasons why, you know, the Liberals were able to get away with that

00:18:58.820 is because the Conservatives didn't take the policy win.

00:19:01.660 The thing is, is that the Carney government is giving some policy wins over to the Conservatives,

00:19:06.860 which is why they're pulling higher, which is why the Conservatives are pulling lower.

00:19:10.400 But the Conservatives aren't taking advantage of it in terms of political communications.

00:19:14.360 And I'm not a communications guy.

00:19:15.800 I'm not going to pretend to be.

00:19:16.820 But I know enough and I'm around enough politics to know, you know, the missed opportunities.

00:19:21.180 And there's a bunch of missed opportunities.

00:19:23.120 So in addition to cleaning up some of the internal things and getting rid of some people,

00:19:28.000 and why I would even say the leader probably should come out and champion some of the proposals

00:19:32.940 to amend the party constitution to safeguard against these abuses.

00:19:37.240 I think that would also go a really long way.

00:19:40.080 I think he also has to change some of his political communications as well.

00:19:43.780 And I would suggest definitely not watering down policy.

00:19:48.080 If anything, I would go the other way.

00:19:50.300 And I think there is, you had mentioned, there's going to be a group of people,

00:19:53.040 at least a few hundred, that are going to go to this convention in Calgary to say,

00:19:55.660 well, he, you know, he's not moderate enough in his policy.

00:19:58.900 I think there's also probably almost an equal number that would go that say,

00:20:02.180 I'm sorry, but you need to actually take some policy stances that are conservative

00:20:06.460 on issues that arise that aren't within, you know, the three or four issues that you want to talk about.

00:20:11.040 For example, immigration, we're finding out now that some of the immigration numbers,

00:20:15.580 it seems like coming out of Statistics Canada, show some decreases in some categories,

00:20:22.420 specifically with temporary foreign workers for the last two quarters.

00:20:25.240 So already on this file, the Carney government, and frankly, it started under the Trudeau,

00:20:30.500 the dying days of the Trudeau premiership, are starting to move in, I would say,

00:20:34.540 the correct direction on some of these files.

00:20:36.480 And that window of political communications opportunity for the Conservatives to come in

00:20:40.680 specifically on the issue of immigration to say something is now starting to close

00:20:44.540 because you're going to look like, again, you're once behind.

00:20:47.520 So I think-

00:20:48.280 This is why I keep telling them, they should be running on 100,000 permanent residents a year cap,

00:20:52.600 100,000 temporary foreign workers with no extensions and 100,000 students.

00:20:56.640 That is it.

00:20:57.800 And that's how you, that's how they should be running on it.

00:21:00.620 You need to have a big vision to run on.

00:21:02.460 And I think that was what was lacking in the campaign in June.

00:21:08.180 Yeah.

00:21:08.820 And so to have that, Pierre's going to have to do more than just do the cleanup on the

00:21:14.080 Constitution side and getting rid of certain people within his office in the OLO and Party HQ.

00:21:20.340 He's also going to have to change his political communications a little bit.

00:21:23.940 He's going to actually have to take some, I would argue, calculated risks and communicate

00:21:29.480 on those issues.

00:21:30.580 He's going to have to be a little bit better at responding to issues as they arise.

00:21:35.080 You know, that's the thing about being prime minister.

00:21:37.360 Things happen, right?

00:21:38.760 And things might happen that you don't like and things might happen in files that you're

00:21:42.100 not all that interested in.

00:21:43.400 Everyone has different interests in different files.

00:21:45.760 But as prime minister, you got to respond to everything, right?

00:21:47.860 And if you want to be that government-in-waiting that you were talking about, you have to show

00:21:51.260 that you can talk about everything and you can talk about everything relatively quickly

00:21:55.340 and that you're representing, you know, the views and values of your political party.

00:22:00.440 So I think that's what, I think there's going to be an equal number of people who go to convention

00:22:05.200 that are on the other side of the kind of those Doug Ford pragmatists that say, I want

00:22:09.380 to see more.

00:22:10.240 Like, that's great that you're against the carpet tax, so am I, but I want to see more.

00:22:13.120 I want you to talk about more on other issues, other economic issues, foreign policy issues,

00:22:18.200 military issues, uh, crime.

00:22:20.400 He's been pretty good, but like, he doesn't really talk about it as much as he probably

00:22:23.700 should, um, cultural issues, social issues.

00:22:26.900 Right.

00:22:27.300 And I think if he doesn't make those two changes, right.

00:22:29.680 I think if he doesn't come in and say, okay, like we're going to clean up, uh, three issues,

00:22:34.720 I would say we're going to clean up on, um, we're going to clean up the personnel in,

00:22:39.620 in the party in, in OLO, we're going to, I'm going to, you know, champion some of these

00:22:44.980 proposed amendments to the constitution to have some safeguards, especially around nominations.

00:22:49.400 And I'm going to show you guys, you know, maybe starting in the summer, but definitely

00:22:53.360 having to start in the autumn that I'm going to be a better political communicator.

00:22:56.200 I think he can grow that 80% to closer to 90 at the same time.

00:23:00.040 I think if he only moves on one of those files or none of them, which, you know, there's

00:23:04.320 a risk that that would happen.

00:23:06.100 And I think that 80% can dip into the sevens.

00:23:09.840 I don't know if it dips into the sixes, but I think it gets into like an awkward, like

00:23:13.460 73, 74%, um, of, of party members saying to go on.

00:23:19.100 One of the other problems for Pierre is that he's not running against anyone.

00:23:23.420 You know, it's not like Doug Ford has an actual campaign that he's running and, and, you

00:23:28.420 know, trying to win these delegates selection meetings or, or a Jason Kenny or a Aaron O'Toole

00:23:33.800 or whatever.

00:23:34.300 Right.

00:23:35.340 Um, there, there's, there's, there's no one out there.

00:23:37.480 There's no camps.

00:23:38.280 There's, there's nothing.

00:23:39.160 Right.

00:23:39.440 So, um, if he, if he gets a lower number that, that kind of makes it a little bit worse.

00:23:45.260 And I think there's the general sense I get is that I think there's just general apathy

00:23:51.260 toward Pierre and the conservative party of Canada right now, because on so many issues

00:23:56.240 that the party has championed for the last three, four, five, six years, the Carney government

00:24:01.420 is moving on.

00:24:02.360 Now, I think we can all probably agree.

00:24:04.380 They're not moving to nearly the extent that we would want them to move on, but they're

00:24:08.600 definitely moving on it, especially in comparison to the Trudeau premiership.

00:24:12.500 Well, here's a good, here's a good example on taxes.

00:24:15.500 The liberals like are going to be reducing taxes.

00:24:19.200 Is it enough?

00:24:20.140 No, it's a pathetic 1% reduction in taxes under $50,000.

00:24:24.160 But once that tax reduction is implemented, it's not going to have the same impact when

00:24:30.880 the conservatives come out and they say, well, we should cut it by another 1% like we

00:24:36.400 were proposing to do in our platform.

00:24:38.180 It's going to feel a little bit like really cutting around the margins in the campaign.

00:24:43.340 I thought that was a perfect example of like a missed opportunity.

00:24:46.060 They ran on a 15% or 2.25 point reduction in the tax rate under $50,000, which isn't

00:24:55.160 even that good because you don't even pay taxes on the first $18,000.

00:24:58.520 So it's a reduction on the first $32,000 you make.

00:25:02.640 Why not run on a 15% or even 25% reduction across the board, including corporate taxes,

00:25:10.120 bait the liberals in to attacking you for being the corporate guys by wanting to reduce corporate

00:25:15.080 taxes and then smack the crap out of them for wanting Canadian businesses to be outcompeted

00:25:20.500 by American businesses who pay far lower corporate taxes.

00:25:23.720 They should have done that.

00:25:24.800 But there was like, again, and this is going to the campaign director in many ways, obviously

00:25:29.940 the kind of buck stops of the leader, but Jenny Byrne, I find she's not a campaign manager

00:25:35.080 or a national director.

00:25:36.700 She is a risk manager.

00:25:38.560 She basically just reduces risk and runs a campaign.

00:25:42.520 I mean, that's one track thinking that this is the way we're going to win.

00:25:46.440 So let's just stick to this message.

00:25:48.640 And it's usually something mild.

00:25:50.480 And it's usually on the theory that the other guys are going to mess up.

00:25:53.520 And if we don't mess up, we're going to win.

00:25:55.400 If the other guys don't mess up, then you're screwed.

00:25:58.700 And especially if they not only don't mess up, but they actually catch a little bit of,

00:26:02.640 you know, they catch a little bit of momentum.

00:26:04.160 You're so dead in the water.

00:26:06.240 And that was the thing.

00:26:07.560 They were hoping that Carney would implode, but Carney's not even interesting enough to

00:26:12.080 implode.

00:26:12.960 And that's his problem.

00:26:14.000 So you've got to run on a big vision, even outside of the election.

00:26:17.160 You've got to say, yes, immigration, 75% cut taxes, 20% cut across the board.

00:26:22.420 We're going to, and you actively run on cutting wasteful spending.

00:26:26.200 You don't kind of like hide from the fact that you might cut wasteful spending potentially.

00:26:31.180 You're like, no, no, no.

00:26:32.340 Find departments and say, we're going to cut that one that nobody would disagree with cutting.

00:26:36.260 Yeah, and even if people do disagree, that's okay.

00:26:39.140 Like, this is the thing about the Conservative Party of Canada, that risk mitigation manager

00:26:44.000 that you're describing Jenny as, and she's probably, to be fair to Jenny, she's probably

00:26:50.380 one of the least worst in that category amongst a lot of those, I would say, you know, professional

00:26:55.680 conservative class that are always consultants and campaign managers that always seem to fail

00:27:00.660 at really achieving anything electorally or even in government.

00:27:04.320 That's a really, really rotten mindset that has deep within the Conservative Party of Canada's

00:27:11.760 psyche, that that needs to go.

00:27:14.540 And Pierre would actually be a perfect candidate to start to get rid of that.

00:27:19.040 And it's a little bit shocking that he hasn't, right?

00:27:21.820 Like, if you look at kind of the policy platform that he put together for the last, you know,

00:27:25.760 kind of three years leading into this last election, it's pretty like a milquetoast 1990s

00:27:31.360 business New York Republican blah crap, you know, it's just that he's he has like a Trumpian

00:27:39.680 or tries to at least have like a Trumpian personality around it.

00:27:43.300 And and that what it makes it seem worse than it actually is.

00:27:46.920 But honestly, it was probably less of a conservative platform than we saw from like Andrew Scheer

00:27:51.520 in 2019.

00:27:52.520 So I think and that's not, you know, necessarily the best of bars to begin with.

00:27:56.780 So it's a mindset within within the party that, you know, whether Pierre stays or goes or whether

00:28:03.080 Jenny stays or goes, I don't think them moving on necessarily solves it.

00:28:07.440 But it does need to be solved one way or the other.

00:28:10.540 And in, you know, the the roadmap that you're discussing about why was just mitigate risk

00:28:14.680 and wait for the other guys to screw up.

00:28:16.720 That's a great strategy to win government, but once every 15 years, and then the mandate

00:28:21.560 you will get from the people is, well, we want you to have the same policies that the

00:28:25.760 last people had being liberals.

00:28:27.900 But you know, we just want you to run a competent liberal government balance, liberal budget,

00:28:32.260 things of this nature.

00:28:33.100 Uh, and so I think that mindset, uh, needs to go one way or the other, and maybe this

00:28:38.760 convention will be the beginning of it.

00:28:41.080 Uh, we'll see what the discussions are like, but it's, it's, it's, it's the, the proof is

00:28:46.660 clearly in the pudding.

00:28:47.780 This is now the fourth election in a row, uh, where the party has failed to form government.

00:28:53.960 And, and I would agree that in a certain sense, the personnel takes second seat in terms

00:28:59.940 of importance to things like nominations, how nominations and appointments are being

00:29:04.940 done, because if you have proper rules that restrict the way that people are kicked out

00:29:09.340 of nominations arbitrarily, or that require more transparency around appointments, then

00:29:15.860 you will kind of cut that off as an avenue for people to basically give out positions to

00:29:21.040 friends and whatnot.

00:29:21.920 Because the funny thing is that it's not like they're picking the guy who can truly

00:29:27.340 win.

00:29:28.440 Oftentimes, when somebody can't win a nomination themselves, then it's kind of a, a bit of

00:29:36.020 a glaring issue that they're probably not going to be able to beat a liberal who's not going

00:29:40.820 to be able to, you're not going to be able to kick the liberal you're running against out

00:29:43.760 of the race.

00:29:44.340 You're going to have to fight them.

00:29:46.720 And if you can't fight fellow conservatives for the nomination, that's a problem that

00:29:52.020 that happened in mine.

00:29:53.300 Someone was favored by the party.

00:29:55.240 I have text messages to prove that they are favored.

00:29:57.500 They literally had a Jenny Byrne and Associates lobbyist going door knocking with them.

00:30:02.040 And that person, they kicked me out of the race.

00:30:04.280 They kicked another person out of the race.

00:30:05.380 They found another excuse to disallow another guy.

00:30:07.740 I mobilized my people to vote down ballot anybody but this party favorite.

00:30:12.240 They lost the nomination still, despite the fact they were going around saying to people

00:30:16.840 they had 1,500 memberships.

00:30:19.060 Nonsense.

00:30:19.840 They did not.

00:30:21.020 And then, so they lost that.

00:30:22.920 And then they were appointed into another riding in Calgary.

00:30:25.940 And they were the only ones, I'm just being nice by not naming them because it's very easy

00:30:29.920 to look up who it was.

00:30:31.180 They were the only one to lose one of the Calgary ridings in a riding that was probably safer

00:30:36.260 than Calgary Center.

00:30:37.700 And, and somehow Greg, and Greg McLean held on to Calgary Center.

00:30:41.180 And it's like, do they not learn the lesson that if you're going to run, frankly, mediocre

00:30:48.120 loser candidates who have track records of losing, they don't, they don't connect with

00:30:53.300 people very well.

00:30:53.980 They may be good at the function of campaigning, getting to doors, talking to people, handing

00:30:58.220 out lit.

00:30:58.940 But if they're not connecting with people, if they're not compelling, stop letting them

00:31:02.880 run.

00:31:03.380 Like we had this in so many areas where we could have won that riding, but we ran the wrong

00:31:07.920 person in Mississauga and Brampton, the story of those cities was that every Hindu candidate

00:31:14.080 who ran got kicked out.

00:31:15.940 And guess what?

00:31:16.880 Hindus are not collectivistic people.

00:31:19.040 If you actually look at a map of where Hindu Canadians live, it's just shotgunned everywhere.

00:31:22.400 They really don't concentrate anywhere specific.

00:31:25.040 You know, a little bit more in places like Brampton and Mississauga than general, maybe 10%

00:31:29.180 of the population.

00:31:30.040 Some of those areas, 15%.

00:31:30.860 But when you kick out every one of their candidates, they might become a little more collectivist

00:31:36.240 and say, well, screw you.

00:31:37.260 I'm not showing up because they didn't require the candidate to be Hindu for them to vote.

00:31:41.540 But when you're basically telling them, we don't want you, they will leave.

00:31:45.300 The PPC literally gained votes in Brampton and Mississauga.

00:31:50.520 I'm not sure if you know this.

00:31:51.660 They collect 5% nationally to 0.7%.

00:31:54.700 But in Mississauga, they went from 2% to 4.5%.

00:31:57.860 That's actually fascinating.

00:31:59.860 I didn't know that at all.

00:32:01.120 I should really go back into my numbers and see where the PPC gained in each individual

00:32:05.880 writing because I have that in my spreadsheets.

00:32:08.620 That's really fascinating stuff.

00:32:09.660 And listen, that's, I would say, a proof point to solidify your overall point.

00:32:16.760 I would also say that the reason that the party does this, you know, want perpetual losers

00:32:21.800 like Jeremy Nixon.

00:32:22.680 And I don't mind saying that because he voted to not have on the committee when Jason was

00:32:28.140 the premier to have a bill put forward by our friend Dan Williams on conscientious rejection

00:32:34.080 rights when it comes to assisted suicide for healthcare professionals.

00:32:37.120 He helped kill that in committee.

00:32:38.780 He also went around claiming he's pro-life and that is like the bare minimum pro-life policy

00:32:44.640 he's stumped against.

00:32:45.840 Literally joined with hyper-progressive socialists like Janice Irwin to kill the bill in committee.

00:32:52.100 And it's like, that's like unforgivable.

00:32:56.180 This is saying basically a doctor is allowed to say, I don't want to do that or I don't want

00:33:00.320 to recommend that.

00:33:01.140 And I remember in the committee, he says, I believe in conscience rights, but I also

00:33:05.580 believe in equal access to healthcare and non-discriminatory access to healthcare.

00:33:09.340 It's like, um, so you don't understand conscience rights if you don't understand that you're supposed

00:33:15.000 to be able to discriminate on things that you're willing and not willing to do.

00:33:19.480 That's not discriminate.

00:33:20.680 That's not like bigoted discrimination.

00:33:22.820 That's saying, I don't want to recommend an abortion service to you.

00:33:25.940 I don't want to recommend made.

00:33:27.480 I don't want to take part in doing made.

00:33:29.560 Yeah, exactly.

00:33:31.040 And so I'm, I'm glad that, uh, he's lost again for like the umpteenth time.

00:33:35.660 Uh, he lost in the provincial election, rightfully so.

00:33:38.800 And guess what?

00:33:39.320 We didn't help his riding and we sent volunteers to, to other ridings and, and we saw, and that's

00:33:44.540 what we did, uh, federally as well.

00:33:46.180 We don't support pro-abortion conservative candidates and we only support, uh, pro-life

00:33:50.180 conservative candidates who did, you know, much, much better compared to pro-abortion ones.

00:33:54.200 But another thing like.

00:33:55.860 Like, well, it turns out that candidates who passionately believe in things do better than

00:34:00.800 ones who take part in apathetic commerce politics.

00:34:05.060 Hey, I'll give you a tax credit if you install, you know, LED lights in your home.

00:34:10.920 It's like, what?

00:34:12.260 And the thing is, again, that's always the funny thing is they always try and knock out

00:34:15.340 pro-life candidates based on the idea, oh, it's a risk.

00:34:18.420 Can this person win?

00:34:19.580 They usually win.

00:34:21.020 Most of the people in the conservative party, most MPs elected are pro-life at this point.

00:34:25.860 Yeah.

00:34:26.300 So it's about, uh, there are at least 90, uh, pro-lifers within 144, uh, conservative

00:34:34.880 MPs in, in that caucus.

00:34:36.400 And the, it, the numbers probably like when, when legislation actually hits, they'll probably

00:34:40.100 be well over a hundred.

00:34:41.260 So now what we're talking 10 out of 14.

00:34:43.780 So that's five out of seven.

00:34:45.000 Like we're, we're talking like close to 80% of the caucus probably being pro-life.

00:34:48.820 Um, and the other thing too, is when we look at our numbers, pro-life conservatives, uh,

00:34:53.340 who got elected had about 5,000 extra votes than the pro-abortion conservatives who got

00:34:58.420 elected, which are, you know, less than 30 at this point from what we can tell.

00:35:01.840 And then for the pro-lifers, the conservative candidates that lost in the last election,

00:35:05.900 they lost by 4,000, 4,500 actually votes fewer than the pro-abortion conservatives who lost.

00:35:12.600 So there's always a premium in that regard.

00:35:14.700 And, and whether it's a pro-life issue or, or a different issue, when you have candidates

00:35:18.820 that actually care about issues and they want to go and talk about it, you're, you're going

00:35:23.160 to have a stronger party for it, especially for a conservative party that seems to be perpetually

00:35:27.180 stuck in opposition.

00:35:27.960 So if you just want your milk toast, you know, I call them polybots, like repeat acts

00:35:32.880 attacks, build the home, stop the crime, fix the budget, not even balance the budget, fix

00:35:37.300 the budget, which they didn't even propose to do.

00:35:39.040 It was just perpetual deficits, just slightly smaller than carnies.

00:35:43.080 Um, you're going to, you're going to get those results.

00:35:46.080 The other thing too, is when you, when you get people who are actually passionate about

00:35:49.600 issues.

00:35:49.860 And I think one candidate that, or member of parliament, that's a great example of this is

00:35:54.800 Jamil Javani and the issues that he's talking about.

00:35:57.160 He had a great three part series, uh, video series about the importance of fathers around

00:36:02.140 father's day.

00:36:02.860 That's the type of cultural social stuff that, um, conservative MPs can easily do.

00:36:08.240 Right.

00:36:09.100 Um, he had, uh, the petition regarding, uh, the burning of the churches in the last parliament.

00:36:14.000 He has a petition going on right now regarding temporary foreign workers.

00:36:17.480 Um, you know, taking stances on these issues, discussing issues as they arise, if the leader

00:36:24.080 isn't willing to do it, but you have a bunch of caucus members are willing to talk about

00:36:26.920 these issues that will permeate through the caucus.

00:36:29.040 It'll permeate through the party and will help.

00:36:30.820 Um, actor size with an, Oh, this terrible plague of a mindset that has plagued the party for

00:36:38.620 since Harper, probably toward the end of the Harper years of just being, let's just mitigate

00:36:43.400 the risk and just wait for the other guys to screw up.

00:36:45.560 No, you actually have to go out there.

00:36:47.040 You have to take policy position stances and you have to get out there and actually go and

00:36:51.240 convert people to your policy stances.

00:36:53.260 That's how you go and grow your base.

00:36:55.520 You know, there, there's many people talking about, we need to grow the conservative base.

00:36:58.840 We need to grow the conservative base, but the best way to grow the conservative base

00:37:02.440 is go out and convert people to conservatism.

00:37:05.760 If you actually want to go and win elections.

00:37:08.000 Well, this is what I was telling people because your base, especially I find sometimes the conservative

00:37:13.340 party and probably all parties don't, oh my goodness, my voice is just off, but parties

00:37:18.800 don't understand their own bases.

00:37:20.420 The conservative party base are frankly not the people who show up to Pierre Pauly of

00:37:25.040 rallies.

00:37:25.740 Those are like, those are like your really turned on party fans.

00:37:31.160 They really like Pierre Pauly.

00:37:32.580 Nothing wrong with it, obviously.

00:37:33.720 I wouldn't even say they're party fans.

00:37:35.300 I would say they're Pierre fans.

00:37:37.000 Yeah.

00:37:37.320 Pierre fans.

00:37:38.040 Yeah.

00:37:38.220 In the sense that they want to see Pierre.

00:37:39.500 They really like them and that's totally fine.

00:37:41.040 They've probably been voting conservative for a long time, but my thing is that your base

00:37:44.900 I would argue, I would argue not.

00:37:45.980 I would argue those people at the rallies.

00:37:47.520 I would argue a lot of them have not been voting period at all for a really long time.

00:37:52.900 Oh, fair enough.

00:37:53.520 Well, at the very least, my thing is that your true base are the silent individuals who tend

00:37:59.420 to always show up and vote for you.

00:38:01.480 But if you start really taking them for granted, you might start having their turnout drop.

00:38:06.960 If they were forced to vote, they'd probably vote for you.

00:38:09.080 But if you really start going away from the things that caused them to show up for the

00:38:14.260 last 20 years on most elections, they'll stay home.

00:38:17.960 So I always now say your base as a conservative party is the 54-year-old Presbyterian or Baptist

00:38:25.980 lady who really wants to show up and vote for you guys.

00:38:29.380 But when they heard that you threw Arnold Vearson under the bus for being for a life, you know,

00:38:33.800 maybe she still showed up to vote, but there's thousands of her, hundreds of thousands of

00:38:37.900 her across the country, and maybe they turned out at 60% rather than what you'd like from

00:38:43.280 those people at 85%.

00:38:45.060 And that's the problem.

00:38:47.100 Nobody's ever going to send you an email saying they're not showing up.

00:38:50.640 They just don't show up.

00:38:52.160 And I think that this election, when I saw it was 68.5% turnout, there's so many moments

00:38:57.280 where I'm like, you didn't get your interest groups out.

00:38:59.980 You didn't get the people who should want to come out for you to feel the need to show

00:39:04.940 up because the group shows up, but it's how much of the group shows up.

00:39:08.700 It's always that margin.

00:39:10.720 I was thinking in during the election, what you should do, like, I always recommend run

00:39:16.140 pro-life because you'll do better objectively.

00:39:19.180 But even if the leader and certain people don't want to do that, send Arnold Vearson,

00:39:24.280 send, like, Garnet Genui, send Lesley and Lewis on a church tour.

00:39:30.660 They go to every single church in the GGA, at least dropping off literature, talking to

00:39:35.780 pastors, basically telling them what they're going to do.

00:39:38.460 And guess what?

00:39:39.220 You have a second, you have a second, like, rally campaign going on.

00:39:43.700 Because the problem is it was just Polyev.

00:39:45.860 It was Polyev and a little bit of Melissa Lanceman doing rallies.

00:39:49.260 Everyone else, and I think I heard this from not you, someone else, saying that candidates

00:39:54.040 were literally told not to even leave their riding during the campaign.

00:39:57.900 You could be in the most safe of safe ridings, but unless you got express written permission,

00:40:02.220 which they probably wouldn't want to give you, you could not leave your jurisdiction to

00:40:05.660 go help your neighbor who may be in trouble.

00:40:08.200 Yeah, there were only five MPs that were allowed to leave the ridings.

00:40:10.940 It was Melissa Lanceman, Andrew Scheer, Michelle Rumpel-Garner, and there were two others.

00:40:16.760 And I'm not aware who the other two were, but those are the only five that were allowed

00:40:20.140 to leave the ridings.

00:40:21.480 Yeah, and I think, you know what?

00:40:22.760 Like, the other thing that's going to be interesting is when Pierre comes back to the

00:40:26.340 House of Commons, probably he'll, I'm assuming he's going to be winning, of course, that by

00:40:30.660 election will probably be called the Sunday for the Tuesday after Pacific holiday in August

00:40:36.400 in rural Alberta.

00:40:38.220 When he does return to the House of Commons, it's going to be a different dynamic because

00:40:42.340 you have a different makeup of caucus.

00:40:43.740 You have, you know, your Aaron Gunn's, your Andrew Lawton's, your Dr. Strauss's, I mean,

00:40:50.800 Jamil was there beforehand, but, you know, now you have Jamil on steroids, so to speak.

00:40:54.760 I would almost turn that into like a bit of the podcast radio show host faction of the

00:41:01.420 party that's actually oddly growing.

00:41:03.520 People who may have not hosted their own shows like Matt Strauss.

00:41:06.840 To my knowledge, he's never had his own YouTube channel or radio show.

00:41:10.160 Yeah, I don't believe so.

00:41:11.160 Yeah.

00:41:11.460 The way Jamil and Lawton and Aaron Gunn as a documentarian have.

00:41:15.160 But people who know how to get attention, they know how to take an issue, market the issue,

00:41:20.280 win on the issue.

00:41:21.340 And hopefully that shakes things up so you don't get people who are nervous saying,

00:41:24.920 well, I wasn't told I can say that, so I'm not going to do it.

00:41:27.880 It's like, just do it.

00:41:28.700 That's why I like Jamil, because it seems like he just does what he wants.

00:41:33.120 And like, you know, let the party get mad at me, because I'm right, and they're going

00:41:37.080 to realize I'm right.

00:41:38.400 And that's the problem that I already see in how like the shadow cabinets put together.

00:41:42.900 There's faces in there who I don't know what benefit we get from them.

00:41:47.460 I don't know why they're there.

00:41:48.940 I'll just name one of them.

00:41:50.220 I don't know what we're getting from Jisraj Halan.

00:41:53.140 Is he somebody who set the world on fire when it comes to finance policy?

00:41:56.460 I don't know.

00:41:57.020 I don't even know what he does.

00:41:59.520 These are all, you know, very legitimate questions.

00:42:01.960 And I think, I think that the relationship between Pierre, his office and the caucus that

00:42:06.980 existed in the 44th Parliament is not going to be same in the 45th.

00:42:12.100 And I think that he needs to come into this 45th Parliament once he is elected as a member

00:42:17.380 of Parliament, and he comes back into the House of Commons as a leader of his majesty's

00:42:21.060 loyal opposition.

00:42:22.360 I think it would behoove him to really understand that that relationship is not going to be the

00:42:28.300 same.

00:42:28.440 Because if he tries to have the same controlling relationship that he did last time, I think

00:42:34.100 that's going to have a negative effect on him.

00:42:36.580 Now you want to talk about convention?

00:42:38.340 Well, guess what?

00:42:39.320 MPs go to convention.

00:42:40.520 They bring their, oftentimes their boards.

00:42:42.500 Typically, it's most, most of the time, a lot of the delegates that go for each riding

00:42:47.300 association are the board members of the EDA board.

00:42:50.360 And they typically to be loyalist to, to their MP, or at least to their candidate, typically.

00:42:55.980 Um, and if you start pissing off, uh, members of caucus over the autumn sitting of this

00:43:03.080 parliament of this session, then I think Calgary starts to change a little bit for him in that

00:43:08.440 leadership question.

00:43:09.160 So he's got to be a little bit careful in that regard.

00:43:11.780 So it's, it's there, these MPs are in there that are looking to shake things up.

00:43:17.080 I hope that, again, that permeates through the party overall, but if there's any resistance

00:43:23.340 specifically from the leader himself, and we've yet to see if there is going to be that type

00:43:27.500 of resistance, um, I think that we will have it, that will have a negative effect on him for that

00:43:33.420 leadership vote come, come convention.

00:43:36.180 Well, and I think the key word here is like, in terms of what needs to be done is just freedom.

00:43:41.120 You know, let's get, is that, is that what he ran on?

00:43:43.980 Like, I know, and that's, that's the ironic thing is that guys, less gatekeeping, more freedom.

00:43:49.620 If it's a good policy for how the country should be run, it's a good policy for how the party

00:43:53.560 should be run.

00:43:54.520 Let good ideas win, let bad ideas fail.

00:43:57.460 Because right now by doing the risk mitigation, they're letting some of their old, I guess,

00:44:03.940 old ideas stick around that really should have been thrown away.

00:44:07.160 And they're not letting in any new ideas to kind of like compete and show that no, no,

00:44:11.380 no, this actually does win.

00:44:12.640 Again, on the pro-life thing, uh, which I'm, you know, I'm more, uh, I feel more, uh, compelled

00:44:19.360 to bring up since you're here, but like the, on the pro-life issue too, I always tell people

00:44:23.820 because I always have audience members saying, well, if you run on that, you're going to lose.

00:44:27.260 It's like, guys, if you were on the debate stage with Mark Carney or Justin Trudeau or

00:44:32.320 whatever liberal, and you said, what's your favorite thing about a ninth month abortion

00:44:38.000 that causes you to say that you want us to keep that illegal?

00:44:41.820 What is your favorite thing of a sex-selective abortion?

00:44:45.540 You know, why should we, what's your argument for, uh, eliminating the mentally unwell using

00:44:51.940 assisted suicide?

00:44:53.460 It's like they don't have an answer because they've never actually had to answer stuff like

00:44:57.560 that justify just the insane policies that, that are currently active in Canada, like zero

00:45:03.080 abortion restrictions, crazy amounts of made, uh, application that's, you could obviously hit

00:45:09.320 them on that, but it's like, Ooh, but that's controversial.

00:45:11.900 Controversial doesn't mean anything bad.

00:45:13.520 It means people, it's something that it causes a buzz.

00:45:17.100 People talk about it.

00:45:18.640 And if you're in all these are 80, 20 issues.

00:45:21.160 Yeah.

00:45:21.540 There's going to be a big blow up from the media because they're all a bunch of pro-abortion

00:45:24.640 hacks, but again, people who are going to be reading the article and hearing what you

00:45:29.600 said and what the other guy said, they're going to say, well, he's right.

00:45:33.080 And that's all you're trying to do.

00:45:34.520 You just need, it doesn't matter if the media hates you.

00:45:36.720 If at least they wrote down what you said, if people read it, even if they're still reading

00:45:41.180 mainstream news, they will read that and be like, well, he's kind of right.

00:45:44.320 And that's all you need.

00:45:45.740 Well, and here's the danger right now for the conservative party of Canada is that your

00:45:50.720 opponent is not Justin Trudeau, right?

00:45:52.960 So for the Liberal Party of Canada, they don't have anything in their constitution that says,

00:45:58.440 you know, you must be pro-abortion in order to be a nomination contestant and a candidate

00:46:03.580 for us.

00:46:04.280 All that Justin Trudeau said is that I'm going to use the clause within the Canada Elections

00:46:08.700 Act that says that if you want a registered party name behind a candidate's name on a ballot,

00:46:16.500 the executive director for that registered party of Elections Canada has to give the okay.

00:46:22.960 And all he said was, if you're pro-life and you legitimately win a nomination race within

00:46:27.180 the Liberal Party of Canada, and we find out that you're pro-life, I'm going to tell the

00:46:30.700 executive director to not give Elections Canada that you are going to be one of our candidates

00:46:37.840 and we'll appoint someone else or whatever.

00:46:40.060 You still get to be a candidate on the ballot.

00:46:41.780 Of course, you just don't get comma liberal behind you.

00:46:45.000 We don't know for sure if Mark Carney is going to keep that or not.

00:46:48.580 As far as we know, he isn't.

00:46:50.780 If there is a piece of pro-life legislation that comes up in this 45th parliament, whether

00:46:54.880 it be with assisted suicide or abortion, we don't know if Mark Carney is going to whip

00:46:59.080 his caucus because it's not required within the Liberal Party of Canada constitution.

00:47:02.860 He very well might not.

00:47:03.760 And on top of that, not that I think this will happen, but it's much more likely to happen

00:47:09.060 under Carney than Trudeau, which is still not likely overall, but he could move on these

00:47:16.140 issues himself and not wait for the conservatives if it comes up in the media.

00:47:20.780 For example, we have the sunset clause, right?

00:47:23.660 For the assisted suicide statute that says that, you know, we're going to study about

00:47:30.360 the expansion of assisted suicide to those with mental health challenges and within a

00:47:34.740 certain amount of time, then that's just going to be automatic.

00:47:37.000 He could move on that before the conservatives say we're going to get rid of that sunset

00:47:40.100 clause and we're going to pull back on that and we're not going to extend the criteria

00:47:44.840 to those with mental health challenges.

00:47:46.700 He might even go and get rid of some of the track two stuff for assisted suicide.

00:47:50.760 He might move faster on sex selective abortion.

00:47:52.840 I'm not saying that he will do these things.

00:47:54.600 I'm not saying the likelihood of these things is particularly high.

00:47:57.400 It's a scenario that if he does it, it takes a baton away from his opponents because we

00:48:02.200 see Carney is at least willing to do this on economic issues.

00:48:05.480 So if he moves on social issues and does, you know, maybe he puts forward a bill to protect

00:48:09.640 historical churches or something like that.

00:48:12.100 And the party that hasn't really like the conservative party hasn't really talked as much about church

00:48:17.020 burnings and whatnot that have been going on.

00:48:18.700 But if he has some historical site and religious building protection act or whatever, he's

00:48:24.340 going to get the credit because politics isn't people on Twitter.

00:48:28.120 What like who who knew everything that happened over the past 10 years?

00:48:31.720 And when the liberals do it, they're going to see a hypocrisy.

00:48:34.640 The average person reading the paper is not going to think, oh, hypocrisy.

00:48:38.020 They're gonna be like, well, that sounds good.

00:48:39.840 Yeah.

00:48:40.900 They don't have time to consume that.

00:48:42.260 And the other thing, too, is you did the other risk, I would say to the conservatives

00:48:46.200 that you already see a little bit of this in the social issue category.

00:48:50.900 Like, I would be very, very wary if I were, you know, working in party HQ or the OLO.

00:48:56.500 And one example, the example I think of is the raising of the pride flag or whatever the

00:49:02.140 hell it's called on the parliamentary precinct.

00:49:04.620 Carney had like a 15 second video about it from his personal Twitter and then the prime

00:49:08.740 minister's official Twitter account.

00:49:10.120 And that was it.

00:49:11.400 And I wouldn't be surprised if that's all we hear from the prime minister personally

00:49:15.380 on the issue of pride during quote unquote pride season.

00:49:20.000 Whereas Trudeau beforehand, like he was leading the frickin parade going down in Toronto and

00:49:25.220 Montreal or Vancouver or whatever.

00:49:27.360 You're not going to see that.

00:49:28.940 I highly doubt from from Carney.

00:49:31.160 That's not his personality to even get in front of a parade.

00:49:34.220 There's that too.

00:49:35.500 But that's already a massive change.

00:49:37.540 Right.

00:49:37.720 So to go from that to, hey, we're not going to allow sex changes, castrations, whatever

00:49:45.740 you want to call them for minors.

00:49:47.120 That's not as big of a jump for him to make as it was for Trudeau.

00:49:50.820 So the risk of the liberals under Carney moving on these files faster than the conservatives

00:49:56.880 is much higher than it was with Trudeau's leader.

00:50:00.140 I still don't think it's a high risk overall.

00:50:02.360 But the risk is definitely raised.

00:50:03.640 It's just that this is why the conservatives need to move faster on things, because maybe

00:50:08.660 it's just a 1% risk on some of these issues.

00:50:11.100 But if you line up enough of these small 1, 5, 7, 10% risks that in three years they're

00:50:17.160 going to say something before you do.

00:50:19.160 Well, they're ripping issues away from you.

00:50:21.420 And your own base is going to look at you saying, like, what are you guys doing?

00:50:24.540 Why is it that they're the ones leading on policy when you're in opposition and you can

00:50:29.140 say whatever you want?

00:50:30.900 Yeah.

00:50:31.140 And the other thing, too, is they don't have to worry about the NDP, right?

00:50:34.940 It's I don't think the NDP is dead.

00:50:37.100 I think the NDP will will come back.

00:50:39.020 Will they win, you know, 100 seats like they did under Jack Layton?

00:50:41.900 I don't know.

00:50:43.320 Don Davies does seem more competent.

00:50:45.060 Like, I think he understands the task at the end.

00:50:47.380 Don mania is a real thing, man.

00:50:48.980 I know, but he seems more competent in the sense that in 2004, Layton understood that

00:50:54.560 you have to pull the plug on the government if you want to gain.

00:50:58.340 And I think Don Davies, by voting with the Conservatives on several of these motions and

00:51:01.980 saying, I'm not going to vote for the throne speech, he's rattling the cage more and proving,

00:51:06.480 hey, the NDP is back.

00:51:07.560 It kind of makes sense.

00:51:08.460 He's like an old Teamsters lawyer.

00:51:10.420 Yes.

00:51:10.740 And so I think he's trying to recapture not just urban progressives, but I think he's also

00:51:16.300 trying to recapture hard hat wearing union men, which is the problem with that is that

00:51:21.800 that's who the Conservatives won.

00:51:23.300 And that's why we won Windsor and Hamilton ridings.

00:51:25.880 It's because those working class guys went NDP to Conservative.

00:51:30.540 And if Don Davies proves good at getting those guys to come back, that's going to hurt the

00:51:35.160 Conservatives more than it's going to hurt the Liberals.

00:51:36.860 So that's where, again, if the Conservatives want to solidify all their gains and then potentially

00:51:41.560 gain more, you've got to get more intense.

00:51:43.840 It's not intense like throwing chairs around or whatever, but you've got to toughen up

00:51:51.280 on policy so that people actually look around and they realize, oh, that's why I voted for

00:51:55.760 them.

00:51:56.000 Because if you go too silent, people are going to be like, why was I voting Conservative

00:51:58.800 again?

00:51:59.220 I don't even remember what these guys...

00:52:00.800 Yeah.

00:52:01.480 You have to keep repeating.

00:52:02.960 And we're already seeing that.

00:52:03.980 There isn't a ton of polling post-election yet.

00:52:06.640 And I think a lot of polling firms aren't going to be wasting their time and resources on

00:52:10.680 that for two things.

00:52:11.360 Number one, it's pretty close after an election.

00:52:14.360 So not much is probably going to change.

00:52:17.160 Honeymoon polling isn't that interesting.

00:52:19.240 Exactly.

00:52:20.240 And Pauliev's own polling isn't that bad.

00:52:22.240 When you actually pull his own approval, Spark Research just put one out.

00:52:25.780 Yes, Carney has like a 67% or 63% approval rating right now.

00:52:30.040 But Pauliev is still positive.

00:52:31.800 He actually has 51% to like 49%, which isn't bad.

00:52:34.760 But the problem is everyone after the election always pretends they voted for whoever won.

00:52:40.540 Yeah.

00:52:40.780 Yeah.

00:52:41.040 And like, listen, it's a new, like, conservatives have to stop pretending that this isn't a

00:52:46.120 new government.

00:52:46.720 It is a new government.

00:52:47.820 Technically, constitutionally, it's a new government because it's a new premiership.

00:52:51.240 And they're very much acting like it.

00:52:52.660 So to say like, oh, well, you know, at the last liberal decade, this is a fourth liberal

00:52:56.640 term.

00:52:57.380 Everybody out there, myself included, are treating this as a first term government, right?

00:53:02.080 And when a first term government comes in and they come up with a new policy program and

00:53:06.360 they actually act on it like the Carney government is, it's exciting.

00:53:09.860 It is exciting.

00:53:10.900 The other two is we're going to the summer.

00:53:12.260 So like people are really starting to check out the Oilers, you know, made it to game

00:53:16.140 six in the Stanley Cup final.

00:53:17.980 You have football starting up.

00:53:19.780 I'm sorry, did you see Denny Byrne tweeting out?

00:53:22.560 We could get to that.

00:53:23.820 We could get to that.

00:53:24.760 I was really proud of my retweet on that, but she deleted the tweet.

00:53:30.000 So it didn't, it's now gone.

00:53:32.120 But I have the screenshot.

00:53:33.780 I'll send it to you actually.

00:53:35.240 But my point being is that we don't see much, many numbers.

00:53:39.240 The numbers that we do see, because Nanos does his weekly rolling poll, which, you

00:53:43.140 know, goes up and down or whatever, but you take the average out and, you know, there's

00:53:47.700 a trend.

00:53:48.240 The trend is probably correct when you look at three of his weeks out of the four.

00:53:52.960 One of the trends that we see as is that as the conservatives are coming down in the

00:53:58.080 Nanos polling, the NDP are going up and the liberals are staying the same.

00:54:02.460 And I think you're all, I don't think I know, I know you're onto something.

00:54:06.920 And the polling is, is, is behind you on it.

00:54:10.400 When you say you have to be careful with the, with the NDP coming back up because it

00:54:16.180 doesn't necessarily, it doesn't hurt the liberals.

00:54:18.600 Sure.

00:54:19.640 But I think proportionally it hurts the conservatives a lot more and especially in the C counts.

00:54:24.960 So what I was getting back at with, when you're talking about, well, the liberals just

00:54:28.200 have to, you know, there's maybe a 1% risk.

00:54:31.240 They're going to move on this like hardcore conservative issue, but they only need to do

00:54:34.500 that on like three, four or five issues over the next, let's say year and a half.

00:54:38.080 And then like people start wondering, well, what the hell, what are the conservatives doing

00:54:41.380 under PolyEv or whoever's leader at the time?

00:54:44.360 They don't have to worry about their left flank because a, even if the NDP do come back,

00:54:49.620 they're not coming back with like much more than 12 seats.

00:54:53.420 They'll come back with like maybe 20 at most, right?

00:54:56.480 It'll, it'll, it'll take time because, because money does matter in politics and you have

00:54:59.860 to, you know, run campaigns and run an office and all that type of stuff, it's going to

00:55:04.120 take time for the NDP to come back.

00:55:05.580 But even the NDP do come back in terms of seats, it might not hurt the liberals basically

00:55:11.040 at all.

00:55:11.580 And it might hurt the conservatives.

00:55:13.600 So if I were the green started arising, the liberals would get worried because the only

00:55:18.280 people voting green are like urban or suburban progressives.

00:55:23.380 And so those are usually default.

00:55:26.060 Those people can kind of swing between any of the left wing parties.

00:55:28.340 And again, with, with NDP, there are blue NDP voters.

00:55:33.100 There are blue collar plumbers who used to vote NDP under Layton, but now they vote for

00:55:38.460 the conservatives.

00:55:39.140 But if the conservatives, you know, again, don't feel like, that's actually why cultural

00:55:44.240 issues matter.

00:55:45.320 Who is the guy who, what, what podcast does the guy who is the plumber listening to at

00:55:50.260 work?

00:55:50.760 He's not listening to, you know, frankly, he's not probably listening to me.

00:55:55.820 He's probably listening to like people who are probably even a little bit edgier than

00:56:01.100 me.

00:56:01.440 So the party needs to not kind of come off as soft and, you know, wait a government and

00:56:08.280 waiting and whatnot.

00:56:09.260 That's not going to mean anything to the plumber.

00:56:10.780 He wants you to be like trying to, you know, bash down the pillars of the government now.

00:56:14.660 These are pro union, social and cultural conservatives.

00:56:19.660 What really hit me was way back when in 2008 or 2009.

00:56:25.680 So talking about party, party AGM.

00:56:27.980 So here in Manitoba, where I'm from, the NDP and the progressive conservatives, they have

00:56:33.600 their AGMs obviously every year, annual general meeting.

00:56:37.380 And they always flip between Winnipeg brand and Winnipeg branded.

00:56:40.280 And so one year they came to my hometown, Brandon, the NDP, and the guy who was supposed to go

00:56:46.140 there as the official representative of the progressive conservatives, because political

00:56:50.580 parties for the party conventions, they will allow representatives from other political

00:56:55.200 parties to come just to see how things are, you know, some logistical things like how do

00:56:59.980 you run this, like this stage work, that type of stuff.

00:57:02.980 You're basically granted access everywhere.

00:57:04.920 You can't vote, obviously.

00:57:05.940 But you can, you know, they're going to send spies anyway, so why not let the spies it?

00:57:11.400 Well, and, and like, it's, it's, you know, it's just, it's a kind of like a camaraderie

00:57:16.600 thing, like, oh, you're interested in politics, and you have a different, you know, worldview.

00:57:20.680 And it just, it's just interesting, too.

00:57:22.460 And they actually treat you quite well, because like, they kind of give you a tour, they introduce

00:57:25.480 you to different people.

00:57:26.580 I actually got to meet Jack Layton at that party policy convention, provincially, because

00:57:31.180 he was the guest speaker for them.

00:57:32.760 And this is when the NDP were in government provincially in Manitoba.

00:57:36.640 So I wasn't supposed to go, it was a buddy of mine, and who was from Winnipeg.

00:57:41.420 And he said, I actually think he was campaigning down in the States at the time for like the

00:57:45.960 McCain campaign or something like that.

00:57:47.920 So he said, like, I'll actually be gone.

00:57:49.380 Do you mind doing this for the party?

00:57:50.860 I said, this is kind of a cool opportunity.

00:57:52.460 And then I was to provide a report to the party and everything like that.

00:57:55.240 I think I might still have it, actually.

00:57:56.840 So I did.

00:57:57.280 And I had a great time.

00:57:58.840 But what really hit me, why it was that at that NDP policy convention, you had like a

00:58:05.260 row of people delegates, right from a riding and this was like a suburban provincial riding

00:58:10.200 in Winnipeg.

00:58:10.940 And of like, there are 10 delegates or whatever, you had like, your metrosexual, whatever.

00:58:17.060 And then you also had beside them, like the local 380 jean jacket private sector union

00:58:24.420 guys.

00:58:25.540 And they had like nothing to do with each other at the table.

00:58:28.500 They didn't talk to each other, like at the events, like one was grabbing a martini, the

00:58:33.080 other was grabbing a beer.

00:58:34.640 Personally, I like both.

00:58:36.840 And I drank both.

00:58:38.420 But my point being is that there is a huge cultural divide within that party.

00:58:42.800 And that is reflective at the federal level as well.

00:58:45.480 So if you want to keep these people in the Windsors, in the Hamiltons, in the Winnipegs,

00:58:52.280 in the interior of BC, in the North Island where Aaron Gunn is, you're going to have to

00:58:57.000 talk about issues that the NDP aren't willing to go toward.

00:59:00.780 And that includes cultural and social issues.

00:59:02.920 And I don't see the Conservative Party doing that right now.

00:59:08.040 And I hope that they learn and I hope Pierre does learn.

00:59:11.080 But if they don't start doing that, these poll numbers aren't going to get any better.

00:59:14.300 So even if the Liberals just stay the same at like 44, 45 percent, you could see, you

00:59:18.860 know, the NDP go up to 15 and the Conservatives go down to like 33 or so.

00:59:24.640 And that's not going to be good for Pierre going into the convention.

00:59:29.060 Yeah.

00:59:29.380 And that's the thing.

00:59:30.760 I see a lot of issues, even issues that are 60-40, where the 60 are being occupied by

00:59:35.900 the Liberals, the NDP and the Greens right now in the block.

00:59:38.700 Why not take the 40?

00:59:39.940 That's a classic Jason Kenney strategy.

00:59:44.260 Yeah.

00:59:44.620 You always take the 40 on these.

00:59:46.500 But the thing is, even then, the cultural issues, it's more like a 60-40 in favor of the more

00:59:51.800 conservative, socially conservative position.

00:59:53.740 I find that they constantly drop the ball on those.

00:59:56.240 But how is it that Prime Minister Mark Carney has his majesty, the king, come and do the

01:00:03.520 speech from the throne, and that one of the very first things that Mark Carney said when

01:00:08.560 he became Prime Minister, when he was sworn in by Her Excellency the Governor General,

01:00:14.780 this is before the election, right?

01:00:16.520 This is mid-March 2025, was one of the very first things he said to the media that Canada

01:00:21.100 is a nation founded on three peoples, on the British, on the French, on the Indigenous.

01:00:27.140 And it's accurate, and it's true, and it's historic, and it goes to our heritage.

01:00:32.600 It's what makes us unique from the Americans and almost, not almost, does make us unique

01:00:37.140 from every other country in the world.

01:00:38.660 And how is it that a liberal was talking about that?

01:00:41.680 But for the previous, like, 13 years when Justin Trudeau was leader of the Liberal Party

01:00:46.400 and eventually Prime Minister, you didn't hear any conservative really talk in those types

01:00:51.220 of terms.

01:00:51.640 Again, ceding ground on those cultural issues, it's a small thing, but you've already ceded

01:00:58.000 the ground to Carney on that, because if you start talking in that way, which we should

01:01:02.140 as conservatives, it's a me too, you're a Johnny-come-lately, you're behind the eight

01:01:07.120 ball on it.

01:01:08.180 Yeah, no, and fair enough.

01:01:10.840 The only thing I didn't like about the king's speech, or the main thing, is it was like,

01:01:14.820 this feels like the Governor General should be reading it.

01:01:17.420 They really should have jazzed it up a little bit more if it's the king.

01:01:21.340 You know, don't, it felt like a British tourist showed up and he's like, there's some dental

01:01:25.720 plan that I guess Canadians are getting, that's cool, and they have, you know, free parking.

01:01:31.300 It's like, it was a little, they needed to probably, you know, make it a little more

01:01:35.180 high-minded sounding, if you're going to have to believe it.

01:01:37.300 I would agree with that, yeah.

01:01:38.460 Yeah, but no, thanks for coming on to the show, Scott.

01:01:41.460 Your website, I believe it's, it starts right now .ca or .com?

01:01:46.020 Is it both?

01:01:46.380 .ca, yep, .ca.

01:01:47.640 .ca, I think .com as well, .ca, we're on Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, I think we're

01:01:53.440 on TikTok.

01:01:54.800 And I'm going to link the website in the description below, because I recommend, if you guys want

01:02:00.620 to be, not only, you guys not only want to volunteer for campaigns, but if you want to

01:02:05.860 volunteer for the right people, make sure to go through right now, because they'll actually

01:02:09.760 find conservatives who are social and cultural conservatives who you can get behind.

01:02:15.140 And so I think that's very important, that you are not just getting involved in politics,

01:02:20.100 you're getting involved in the areas that are going to have the most impact for the

01:02:23.760 best possible candidates.

01:02:26.100 Yeah, we had 1,500 of our supporters go out and volunteer for about 30 pro-life conservative

01:02:32.500 candidates in really tight ridings in this past election.

01:02:35.440 And the vast majority of them, not all of them, but the vast majority of them got elected

01:02:38.600 and it did make the difference.

01:02:40.160 People don't seem to realize that they think that everyone's opinions are baked in because

01:02:46.180 your own opinions tend to be baked in if you're very involved in politics.

01:02:49.400 Most people just need you to say a couple words and they're like, oh, okay, fair enough.

01:02:53.400 Then they'll show up and vote.

01:02:54.520 It's very subtle.

01:02:55.840 A lot of people have a lot of misconceptions and you're not there to educate them, tell

01:03:01.400 them what for.

01:03:03.280 But if you just talk to them, oftentimes just having a good interaction with a volunteer

01:03:07.740 from that party flips people.

01:03:10.080 Exactly.

01:03:10.600 People are very simple.

01:03:12.380 They just want a party of people that they could imagine being with.

01:03:16.220 And if you're a nice guy and they're like, I could be in the same party as that guy, I'll

01:03:19.500 go vote for them.

01:03:20.300 That's actually how simple it is.

01:03:21.960 Yeah.

01:03:22.680 It's oftentimes, the vast majority of the time, it's this nice young man, this nice young

01:03:28.400 lady came to my door, said hi, they were from the conservative candidate who, you know,

01:03:33.880 I checked out, seems fine.

01:03:35.580 Yeah, I think I'm going to go in and mark an X beside, you know, that candidate's name

01:03:39.760 for election day.

01:03:40.900 Because most ridings that are won outside of like the rural ridings for the conservatives

01:03:45.400 and the deep urban ridings for the liberals, it's won on the margins.

01:03:49.140 It's won trying to take this group of 500 people and move them over to your camp, which

01:03:54.260 is a swing of a thousand.

01:03:55.820 Exactly.

01:03:56.620 Yeah, exactly.

01:03:57.360 Anyways, well, thanks for coming on, Scott.

01:03:59.620 Definitely will be having you on again as we move towards the convention, if any big

01:04:04.260 developments happen or if any, you know, big policy issues come up.

01:04:07.920 But again, thanks for coming on the show.

01:04:09.760 And I guess, Helen, my own audience, like, share, subscribe, do all that great stuff.

01:04:14.500 See you guys later.

01:04:15.700 Bye for now.

The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - June 22, 2025

Beating the Liberals requires fixing the Conservatives (ft. Scott Hayward)

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