BIG polling swing towards the Conservatives! (+4% CPC)
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Summary
Things are tightening up in the polls, and when you start asking people who their neighbours are voting for, the Conservatives are actually gaining ground on the Liberals. In fact, when you ask people who they plan to vote for in the election, the Tories are actually leading the Liberals by double digits. Now, the question is, can the Conservatives hold on to their lead?
Transcript
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Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here, and I am back with another federal election polling update.
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Things are looking pretty good for the Conservatives right now with many pollsters who had previously
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had the Liberals at a four or five point lead, now tightening it all the way up to a tie.
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And in fact, when you poll people on who their neighbors are going to be voting for, the
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Conservatives actually have a pretty substantial lead.
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I want to get into all this in just a second here, but first I just want to remind you
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guys, if you've been liking my federal election coverage, make sure to leave a like on this
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video, subscribe if you're not a subscriber, about half of people watching any given video
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are not yet subscribers, and leave a comment, where do you think the seat count is going
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Now, about three days ago when I made another formal polling update, I had been speculating
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whether or not the momentum the Conservatives had was going to be strong enough, and if
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they had enough time, to actually get across the finish line and win the race.
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I would say that right now, it seems like the momentum was more substantial than I had maybe
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assumed, and things have been tightening up pretty fast.
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Now we just have to see if this is just the sort of people who pick up polls who are tightening,
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and then the more default voters who just watch a little bit of the news before heading out
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to the polling station are still voting Liberal, but in general, it seems like time and momentum
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is on the side of the Conservatives, and now we're just seeing if they're going to be able
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to get the few seats they need in order to outpace the Liberals to get a minority government.
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And let's be very clear, a minority government for the Conservatives is perfectly fine, because
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the Bloc Québécois are very likely to support the Conservatives.
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They are going to support them because immigration is such a big issue, and more importantly, because
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if the Bloc supports the Liberals again in another government, why vote Bloc?
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This is the thing that has absolutely decimated the NDP, is that when you vote for the NDP,
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you just got the Liberals, so why not vote for the Liberals?
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The BQ have always been a little bit more tactful in their support of the Justin Trudeau Liberal
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government, and since Mark Carney was swapped in as the Prime Minister, they have held firm that
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they do not like the Liberals anymore, but if they get a minority, maybe they'll work
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with them, which they kind of have to, it's the minority government.
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But, like, they are not going to abandon the Conservatives.
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If the Conservatives win 155, 160 seats, the Bloc is not going to then get into a messy
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coalition with the Liberals, the NDP, and the Greens, just to spite the Conservatives.
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Now, I want to get into some of the numbers here, and let's first start off with the NDP polling,
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and then we will get into the more general, generic polling.
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So, right here, we see this poll from Juno News, which was actually pioneering the NDP poll.
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I was actually just on Juno News with their pollster and the host, Candace Malcolm,
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going over the polling and the key ridings in this election, and they show that when you
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actually ask people who their neighbors are voting for, we have the Conservatives at a
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lead of 40% to the Liberals 38, and the NDP at 11, and of course, there's also the Bloc and
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the Greens at it, but they just like to display it this way.
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That is a very, very good result for the Conservatives.
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A two-point lead in this election would probably get to my minority government, because, in fact,
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the Conservative vote has gotten more efficient, potentially, than the Liberals.
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This is something I talk about on that Juno News segment that I don't think is released
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yet, but the thing is that with the NDP collapsing, two-thirds of the collapsed NDP vote basically
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went towards the Liberals, like, obviously, a little bit goes towards the Greens, a little
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bit might go towards the Bloc, but one-third of it goes towards the Conservatives, and it
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actually may be the more important third that the Conservatives have captured compared to
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the Liberals, because a lot of the NDP vote that is going Liberal or NDP to Liberal is
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going to be tied up in ridings that either the Liberals cannot win, or it's a riding where
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the Liberals were already going to win, and now they're just going to win by even more.
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So if you absorb a bunch of NDP votes in Parkdale High Park, or University Rosedale, or downtown
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Montreal, or downtown Victoria, or downtown Vancouver, it doesn't matter. Or if you capture
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a bunch of votes in the riding I live in, which is Calgary-Signal Hill, usually the Liberals
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and the NDP grab up 15 and 20 percent between each other, and if a bunch of those NDP votes
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go Liberal, well, they're still losing to the Conservatives by, like, 40 points, so it doesn't
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really matter. Even the Liberal gains from the Conservatives have mostly been what I would
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describe as nervous middle-class legacy media viewers who are kind of shotgunned around
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a lot of, like, conservative historic ridings that are just not going to be flipping. So
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in fact, the Conservatives could actually come in with less vote than the Liberals and still
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capture minority government, because so many Liberal gains are in downtown Toronto, in Montreal,
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and in places they do not need more votes in. So anyways, but now let's move on to the
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NDP poll that then David Colleto and Abacus Data released, because you'd assume Juno News,
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it's a conservative outlet, maybe they're sweetening their polls a little bit, and the
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Conservatives aren't actually leading by two. By the way, Juno News' generic poll not doing a
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NDP poll, they had it at 39-39 between the Conservatives and the Liberals. But maybe it's just
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they were only giving that result because they're Conservatives and it's propaganda.
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Well, when David Colleto and Abacus did it, David himself being a more center-left person,
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they found when you ask people who their neighbors are voting for, it's 44% Conservative to 40% Liberal,
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9 NDP, 6 Block, 1 Green, 1 People's Party. That is very good. And you even find Liberals are more
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likely, Liberal voters are more likely to be saying that their neighbors are voting Conservative than
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Conservatives are to say that their neighbors are voting Liberal. And this is the shy Tory effect.
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It is that a lot of people who are voting Conservative who maybe don't understand how
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polling works and that when you answer a poll, they can't just leak your information and say,
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you know that Dave is voting Conservative and get you fired from your job with your hysterical
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Liberal employer. No, the thing is that a lot of people, though, don't understand that that's not
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how it works, and they won't answer the poll. Or they'll say Liberal because it seems like maybe
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that's what the pollster wants to hear. It's irrational, but there's enough people who have
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that irrational thought that if I pick up the phone and take this poll, or if I answer it a certain way,
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it's going to have a negative impact on my life. So they'll give a wrong answer, or they will not
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actually take the poll at all. And if Conservatives are not taking the polls at even a 5% or 7%
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differential rate compared to Liberals, they're probably ahead. They are absolutely ahead. If
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there's even about, you know, 5% to 7% to 10% of Conservatives who would have taken the poll,
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but they, you know, they're a little apprehensive. They're a little scared, a little anxious. They
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don't want to do it. They just leave the phone down. I can even tell you the thing with the
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Conservatives, too, is that they are a heavily minority party now in terms of their vote.
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East Asian, South Asian, or actually Persian, very Conservative voting groups, Orthodox Jewish,
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Conservative Jewish, very Conservative voting groups right now, and they are going to be
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less likely to actually pick up the phone and take a poll compared to other groups.
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So those were great numbers, but now let's go into some more conventional polling,
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and we will go to one of my favorite pollsters aside from Abacus, and that is Innovative Research.
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Now, I'll even show you what their chart looked like over the election. They actually had
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the Liberals with a substantial lead. Let me find this for a bit. They had the Liberals leading by
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five points a week and a half ago, but since then, and especially since the debate, you see
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a crawl up by the Conservatives coming from that five-point deficit to almost tying it up the next
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week, and now they were ahead. Now it's tightened up a little bit again. The problem, though, is for the
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Liberals is that it's only tightened up in the last few days in places it doesn't matter, because the
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regionals on these Innovative Research polls are fantastic for the Conservatives. Let's go in order
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of how old the last three polls that Innovative has done are, because they've done three waves of polls
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before actually releasing all of them. They haven't just released them, you know, here's one poll, here's the
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next one, here's the next one, in order when they came out. They kind of waited on all the polls to show how
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they were moving. This is the poll that they were conducting pre-debate, like 15th and 16th or
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sometime there. Before the federal election debate, you had in BC the Liberals leading by one. You had
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in Ontario, you had the Liberals leading by three. In Quebec, the Liberals were leading the Bloc
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Québécois by seven. In Atlantic, they were leading the Conservatives by nine points. Now, these aren't great
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numbers compared to the other pollsters' regionals, but I find that Innovative is a far better pollster
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for capturing realistic numbers, because they give people a personality test, well, basically like a
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political personality test, before you actually start answering the real questions, so they know
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they haven't just called up a downtown Toronto Starbucks lineup to get their Ontario sample. If all
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the people have core left personalities, like they are lefty leftists, it's probably not representative
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of the Canadian population, because people's political personalities don't change that fast.
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Now, here is right after the debate. Basically, they start calling people right as the debate was
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happening and the day after, and we see the Conservatives start to jump ahead in places like BC, where they are
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now ahead by four points. In Ontario, they're ahead by five points. And in Quebec, the Liberals' lead over the
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Bloc Québécois has fallen by a point. In Atlantic Canada as well, the Liberals' lead has gone from nine
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to just five. Now, let's go to what they just released from a few days ago. This was conducted,
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I believe, between April 21st and April 23rd. Now, we have the Conservatives leading by three in British
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Columbia. The Prairies are a bit off here, where the Liberals are massively leading the Prairies, but
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I would say ignore all the Prairie results in these polls, because they are just a very small sample
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size of only 61 people. So, did you call rural areas, or did you call a lot of Saskatchewan?
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Conservatives will be leading. Did you call Winnipeg? Liberals will be leading. Usually,
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Prairies are going to be a small U for the Conservatives with a lot of Liberal concentration
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in places like Winnipeg, as well as the NDP, of course, too, where they have a couple of seats.
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But Ontario, Conservatives are leading by three. That's great. And in Quebec, the Liberals have gone up a
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little bit more, maybe because some time has passed since the debate, and they've recovered. But the
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Bloc epic was at three. The problem with the Liberals being at 38% for them is it's wasted votes,
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like I was talking about at the start. They are gaining votes in downtown Montreal, because the
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conventional wisdom is that the Bloc can be at 30% or higher. They basically surround Montreal and make
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it impossible for the Liberals to really break out and win any of those ridings. So, what's happening is
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in ridings like Papineau, Justin Trudeau's former riding, the Liberals are going from 50% of the vote
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to 65%. And who cares? It doesn't do anything for them. They're eating up a lot of NDP votes, and all the
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NDP votes in Quebec are all within the city of Montreal. They basically have nothing outside. And then,
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interestingly enough, in this poll, and maybe it's a small sample size, but if you put them together, I would at
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least say the trend is clear that it's been moving towards Conservatives. Conservatives are leading the
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Liberals by 10 points. We can go back and show that they were only falling behind by five points,
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the last one, and before they were falling behind by nine. So, let's say the Conservatives aren't
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leading in Atlantic Canada. Maybe that's a little too much. But if it's even close, if the Liberals are
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only leading by five or three in Atlantic Canada, they can't win the election. If they can't break out of
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Montreal, if they cannot run up the score in Atlantic Canada, and Ontario and BC are also tight,
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the Conservatives are naturally getting a lot of votes in Saskatchewan and Alberta, and they're
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winning southwestern Ontario, and they're snagging some Ottawa area ridings, which is absolutely
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possible. I was in Canada and Nepean and Ottawa-West Nepean about a week ago. Those ridings looked
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very good for the Conservatives. They're not going to win them all. They could win Barhaven. They could
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win some of these ones. Are they going to win them all? No. But these are ridings that should be in the
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pocket of the Liberals preemptively. And if they're not, it means that they are going to have a really
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hard time finding new places to win seats. And the Liberals do have new places to win seats. They
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might grab up a couple extra seats in Alberta because of the kind of working class metropolitan
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divide in this election. But winning a couple seats in Calgary and Edmonton is not going to make up for
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losing Kitchener-Conestoga, or losing Cambridge, or losing Kitchener-South Hesper, or losing Niagara
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ridings, or losing Ottawa area ridings, or having all of York and Vaughn go towards the Conservatives
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because of the massive rightful Jewish backlash against the Liberals' basically soft on Hamas
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policies. This is all going quite well for the Conservatives right now. Maybe so many Liberal
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boomers have already shown up and voted that you just can't overcome it. Naturally, older voters have
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always disproportionately voted Liberal a bit more because on the left, the NDP is the young lefty
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party and the Liberals are the older lefty party. But I would say that everything has been a little
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bit overwrought when it comes to the Liberals' polling. Again, Conservatives have a lot of things
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going against them when it comes to polling. You have to be an amazing pollster, like Innovative or
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Janet Brown or Abacus, to get even a slightly realistic picture of what's going on. Look at
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Saskatchewan. There was a 15% polling miss by many of the polling firms where they thought the NDP,
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the Saskatchewan NDP, we're going to win the popular vote. And the Saskatchewan party won it
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by 11.9%. That is something that happens when you do not have a good data set. And what happens with
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the Conservatives is that they have a rural vote and a farmer is not going to stop the combine to
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take your stupid poll. They have a minority vote and minorities don't tend to take a lot of polls
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and they are more fiscally and socially conservative than the average Canadian. And then you have the shy
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conservative voter who doesn't really know if the pollster is going to mess with them and release
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how they voted, or they don't know if they should be saying Liberal because there's so much media
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propaganda, but in their heart, they still want to vote conservative and they're going to do that.
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With all that stuff combined, if all these polls are still showing them tight, I assume that there's
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a good chance that Conservatives are leading. Now, that doesn't mean the Conservatives are going to win
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the election. Make sure you go out and vote and take 17 people with you. But it means that with
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all of the media stories coming out that Pauliev could lose his riding of Carlton, it's stupid
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propaganda to demoralize people. Because that's all that there's left to do. Because it has turned
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into a turnout election. There's no big liberal advantage. Maybe there's a small conservative
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advantage. I don't know. But let's say no advantage for anybody. It's a turnout election. So all the
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liberals have left to do is try and push stories about Trump into the media. Carney's now lying about his
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phone call with Trump back in late March saying, oh, he was talking about 51st state all over the place,
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even though back then he said no, he's perfectly respectful and never brought it up. Because he
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needs the headline now. They need to say that that Carlton might go red. Because maybe you're
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thinking, well, Pauliev can't even win his own riding. What's the point of me showing up and
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voting in Transcona? What's the point of me showing up and voting in the Atlantic provinces or in York or
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whatever? The Conservatives can win. Make sure you show up and vote, guys. Anyways, so that's it for me
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today. Thanks for watching the show, guys. Make sure to like the video, subscribe to the channel, leave a
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comment. I'm about to go to the Pauliev rally in Calgary. Some of you are probably watching this video
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driving over. So come and say hi or don't say hi. Do whatever you want. It's a free country. But I will be
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back probably later today with another video. I might go door knocking for a candidate in the afternoon. It's a packed
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schedule out there, folks. Anyway, so see you later whenever I happen to be back.