The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - BIG polling swing towards the Conservatives! (+4% CPC)

00:00:00.460 Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here, and I am back with another federal election polling update.

00:00:07.040 Things are looking pretty good for the Conservatives right now with many pollsters who had previously

00:00:12.380 had the Liberals at a four or five point lead, now tightening it all the way up to a tie.

00:00:18.540 And in fact, when you poll people on who their neighbors are going to be voting for, the

00:00:22.920 Conservatives actually have a pretty substantial lead.

00:00:25.980 I want to get into all this in just a second here, but first I just want to remind you

00:00:30.560 guys, if you've been liking my federal election coverage, make sure to leave a like on this

00:00:34.860 video, subscribe if you're not a subscriber, about half of people watching any given video

00:00:39.460 are not yet subscribers, and leave a comment, where do you think the seat count is going

00:00:44.020 to be on election night?

00:00:46.080 Now, about three days ago when I made another formal polling update, I had been speculating

00:00:52.360 whether or not the momentum the Conservatives had was going to be strong enough, and if

00:00:57.300 they had enough time, to actually get across the finish line and win the race.

00:01:01.720 I would say that right now, it seems like the momentum was more substantial than I had maybe

00:01:06.920 assumed, and things have been tightening up pretty fast.

00:01:10.500 Now we just have to see if this is just the sort of people who pick up polls who are tightening,

00:01:14.920 and then the more default voters who just watch a little bit of the news before heading out

00:01:19.080 to the polling station are still voting Liberal, but in general, it seems like time and momentum

00:01:24.640 is on the side of the Conservatives, and now we're just seeing if they're going to be able

00:01:29.060 to get the few seats they need in order to outpace the Liberals to get a minority government.

00:01:34.360 And let's be very clear, a minority government for the Conservatives is perfectly fine, because

00:01:39.640 the Bloc Québécois are very likely to support the Conservatives.

00:01:43.500 They are going to support them because immigration is such a big issue, and more importantly, because 1.00

00:01:48.080 if the Bloc supports the Liberals again in another government, why vote Bloc?

00:01:53.900 This is the thing that has absolutely decimated the NDP, is that when you vote for the NDP,

00:01:59.860 you just got the Liberals, so why not vote for the Liberals?

00:02:03.240 The BQ have always been a little bit more tactful in their support of the Justin Trudeau Liberal

00:02:08.740 government, and since Mark Carney was swapped in as the Prime Minister, they have held firm that

00:02:14.700 they do not like the Liberals anymore, but if they get a minority, maybe they'll work

00:02:19.660 with them, which they kind of have to, it's the minority government.

00:02:22.760 But, like, they are not going to abandon the Conservatives.

00:02:26.320 If the Conservatives win 155, 160 seats, the Bloc is not going to then get into a messy

00:02:31.920 coalition with the Liberals, the NDP, and the Greens, just to spite the Conservatives.

00:02:37.840 That would look really, really bad.

00:02:39.760 Now, I want to get into some of the numbers here, and let's first start off with the NDP polling,

00:02:46.240 and then we will get into the more general, generic polling.

00:02:49.380 So, right here, we see this poll from Juno News, which was actually pioneering the NDP poll.

00:02:56.780 I was actually just on Juno News with their pollster and the host, Candace Malcolm,

00:03:01.640 going over the polling and the key ridings in this election, and they show that when you

00:03:05.960 actually ask people who their neighbors are voting for, we have the Conservatives at a

00:03:10.840 lead of 40% to the Liberals 38, and the NDP at 11, and of course, there's also the Bloc and

00:03:17.500 the Greens at it, but they just like to display it this way.

00:03:20.420 That is a very, very good result for the Conservatives.

00:03:23.940 A two-point lead in this election would probably get to my minority government, because, in fact,

00:03:29.200 the Conservative vote has gotten more efficient, potentially, than the Liberals.

00:03:33.500 This is something I talk about on that Juno News segment that I don't think is released

00:03:38.600 yet, but the thing is that with the NDP collapsing, two-thirds of the collapsed NDP vote basically

00:03:45.560 went towards the Liberals, like, obviously, a little bit goes towards the Greens, a little

00:03:49.720 bit might go towards the Bloc, but one-third of it goes towards the Conservatives, and it

00:03:54.300 actually may be the more important third that the Conservatives have captured compared to

00:03:59.140 the Liberals, because a lot of the NDP vote that is going Liberal or NDP to Liberal is

00:04:05.560 going to be tied up in ridings that either the Liberals cannot win, or it's a riding where

00:04:11.300 the Liberals were already going to win, and now they're just going to win by even more.

00:04:15.920 So if you absorb a bunch of NDP votes in Parkdale High Park, or University Rosedale, or downtown

00:04:22.480 Montreal, or downtown Victoria, or downtown Vancouver, it doesn't matter. Or if you capture

00:04:28.820 a bunch of votes in the riding I live in, which is Calgary-Signal Hill, usually the Liberals

00:04:34.860 and the NDP grab up 15 and 20 percent between each other, and if a bunch of those NDP votes

00:04:40.900 go Liberal, well, they're still losing to the Conservatives by, like, 40 points, so it doesn't

00:04:46.260 really matter. Even the Liberal gains from the Conservatives have mostly been what I would

00:04:51.360 describe as nervous middle-class legacy media viewers who are kind of shotgunned around

00:04:57.860 a lot of, like, conservative historic ridings that are just not going to be flipping. So

00:05:03.600 in fact, the Conservatives could actually come in with less vote than the Liberals and still

00:05:07.660 capture minority government, because so many Liberal gains are in downtown Toronto, in Montreal,

00:05:12.660 and in places they do not need more votes in. So anyways, but now let's move on to the

00:05:19.500 NDP poll that then David Colleto and Abacus Data released, because you'd assume Juno News,

00:05:25.580 it's a conservative outlet, maybe they're sweetening their polls a little bit, and the

00:05:29.220 Conservatives aren't actually leading by two. By the way, Juno News' generic poll not doing a

00:05:34.700 NDP poll, they had it at 39-39 between the Conservatives and the Liberals. But maybe it's just

00:05:41.020 they were only giving that result because they're Conservatives and it's propaganda.

00:05:44.260 Well, when David Colleto and Abacus did it, David himself being a more center-left person,

00:05:49.720 they found when you ask people who their neighbors are voting for, it's 44% Conservative to 40% Liberal,

00:05:56.300 9 NDP, 6 Block, 1 Green, 1 People's Party. That is very good. And you even find Liberals are more

00:06:04.040 likely, Liberal voters are more likely to be saying that their neighbors are voting Conservative than

00:06:09.020 Conservatives are to say that their neighbors are voting Liberal. And this is the shy Tory effect.

00:06:15.720 It is that a lot of people who are voting Conservative who maybe don't understand how

00:06:20.660 polling works and that when you answer a poll, they can't just leak your information and say,

00:06:24.980 you know that Dave is voting Conservative and get you fired from your job with your hysterical

00:06:29.940 Liberal employer. No, the thing is that a lot of people, though, don't understand that that's not

00:06:35.080 how it works, and they won't answer the poll. Or they'll say Liberal because it seems like maybe

00:06:39.620 that's what the pollster wants to hear. It's irrational, but there's enough people who have

00:06:44.920 that irrational thought that if I pick up the phone and take this poll, or if I answer it a certain way,

00:06:49.520 it's going to have a negative impact on my life. So they'll give a wrong answer, or they will not

00:06:54.900 actually take the poll at all. And if Conservatives are not taking the polls at even a 5% or 7%

00:07:02.280 differential rate compared to Liberals, they're probably ahead. They are absolutely ahead. If

00:07:07.240 there's even about, you know, 5% to 7% to 10% of Conservatives who would have taken the poll,

00:07:13.060 but they, you know, they're a little apprehensive. They're a little scared, a little anxious. They

00:07:16.860 don't want to do it. They just leave the phone down. I can even tell you the thing with the

00:07:20.780 Conservatives, too, is that they are a heavily minority party now in terms of their vote.

00:07:25.640 East Asian, South Asian, or actually Persian, very Conservative voting groups, Orthodox Jewish,

00:07:31.540 Conservative Jewish, very Conservative voting groups right now, and they are going to be

00:07:35.500 less likely to actually pick up the phone and take a poll compared to other groups.

00:07:40.560 So those were great numbers, but now let's go into some more conventional polling,

00:07:45.640 and we will go to one of my favorite pollsters aside from Abacus, and that is Innovative Research.

00:07:51.820 Now, I'll even show you what their chart looked like over the election. They actually had

00:07:56.680 the Liberals with a substantial lead. Let me find this for a bit. They had the Liberals leading by

00:08:01.880 five points a week and a half ago, but since then, and especially since the debate, you see

00:08:07.460 a crawl up by the Conservatives coming from that five-point deficit to almost tying it up the next

00:08:14.460 week, and now they were ahead. Now it's tightened up a little bit again. The problem, though, is for the

00:08:19.780 Liberals is that it's only tightened up in the last few days in places it doesn't matter, because the

00:08:26.080 regionals on these Innovative Research polls are fantastic for the Conservatives. Let's go in order

00:08:32.080 of how old the last three polls that Innovative has done are, because they've done three waves of polls

00:08:38.520 before actually releasing all of them. They haven't just released them, you know, here's one poll, here's the

00:08:43.700 next one, here's the next one, in order when they came out. They kind of waited on all the polls to show how

00:08:48.920 they were moving. This is the poll that they were conducting pre-debate, like 15th and 16th or

00:08:56.060 sometime there. Before the federal election debate, you had in BC the Liberals leading by one. You had

00:09:03.120 in Ontario, you had the Liberals leading by three. In Quebec, the Liberals were leading the Bloc

00:09:09.300 Québécois by seven. In Atlantic, they were leading the Conservatives by nine points. Now, these aren't great

00:09:15.640 numbers compared to the other pollsters' regionals, but I find that Innovative is a far better pollster

00:09:20.860 for capturing realistic numbers, because they give people a personality test, well, basically like a

00:09:26.080 political personality test, before you actually start answering the real questions, so they know

00:09:31.260 they haven't just called up a downtown Toronto Starbucks lineup to get their Ontario sample. If all

00:09:37.780 the people have core left personalities, like they are lefty leftists, it's probably not representative

00:09:44.080 of the Canadian population, because people's political personalities don't change that fast.

00:09:49.160 Now, here is right after the debate. Basically, they start calling people right as the debate was

00:09:54.460 happening and the day after, and we see the Conservatives start to jump ahead in places like BC, where they are

00:10:00.060 now ahead by four points. In Ontario, they're ahead by five points. And in Quebec, the Liberals' lead over the

00:10:06.420 Bloc Québécois has fallen by a point. In Atlantic Canada as well, the Liberals' lead has gone from nine

00:10:12.580 to just five. Now, let's go to what they just released from a few days ago. This was conducted,

00:10:20.380 I believe, between April 21st and April 23rd. Now, we have the Conservatives leading by three in British

00:10:26.720 Columbia. The Prairies are a bit off here, where the Liberals are massively leading the Prairies, but

00:10:31.700 I would say ignore all the Prairie results in these polls, because they are just a very small sample

00:10:36.200 size of only 61 people. So, did you call rural areas, or did you call a lot of Saskatchewan?

00:10:41.720 Conservatives will be leading. Did you call Winnipeg? Liberals will be leading. Usually,

00:10:45.880 Prairies are going to be a small U for the Conservatives with a lot of Liberal concentration

00:10:50.020 in places like Winnipeg, as well as the NDP, of course, too, where they have a couple of seats.

00:10:55.360 But Ontario, Conservatives are leading by three. That's great. And in Quebec, the Liberals have gone up a

00:11:01.860 little bit more, maybe because some time has passed since the debate, and they've recovered. But the

00:11:06.480 Bloc epic was at three. The problem with the Liberals being at 38% for them is it's wasted votes, 0.89

00:11:13.360 like I was talking about at the start. They are gaining votes in downtown Montreal, because the

00:11:18.920 conventional wisdom is that the Bloc can be at 30% or higher. They basically surround Montreal and make

00:11:24.820 it impossible for the Liberals to really break out and win any of those ridings. So, what's happening is

00:11:30.060 in ridings like Papineau, Justin Trudeau's former riding, the Liberals are going from 50% of the vote

00:11:35.200 to 65%. And who cares? It doesn't do anything for them. They're eating up a lot of NDP votes, and all the

00:11:41.900 NDP votes in Quebec are all within the city of Montreal. They basically have nothing outside. And then,

00:11:49.300 interestingly enough, in this poll, and maybe it's a small sample size, but if you put them together, I would at

00:11:54.480 least say the trend is clear that it's been moving towards Conservatives. Conservatives are leading the

00:11:59.320 Liberals by 10 points. We can go back and show that they were only falling behind by five points,

00:12:04.900 the last one, and before they were falling behind by nine. So, let's say the Conservatives aren't

00:12:10.300 leading in Atlantic Canada. Maybe that's a little too much. But if it's even close, if the Liberals are

00:12:17.120 only leading by five or three in Atlantic Canada, they can't win the election. If they can't break out of

00:12:23.640 Montreal, if they cannot run up the score in Atlantic Canada, and Ontario and BC are also tight,

00:12:28.400 the Conservatives are naturally getting a lot of votes in Saskatchewan and Alberta, and they're

00:12:32.640 winning southwestern Ontario, and they're snagging some Ottawa area ridings, which is absolutely

00:12:37.360 possible. I was in Canada and Nepean and Ottawa-West Nepean about a week ago. Those ridings looked

00:12:43.420 very good for the Conservatives. They're not going to win them all. They could win Barhaven. They could

00:12:48.220 win some of these ones. Are they going to win them all? No. But these are ridings that should be in the

00:12:52.960 pocket of the Liberals preemptively. And if they're not, it means that they are going to have a really

00:12:57.620 hard time finding new places to win seats. And the Liberals do have new places to win seats. They

00:13:03.160 might grab up a couple extra seats in Alberta because of the kind of working class metropolitan 0.90

00:13:08.680 divide in this election. But winning a couple seats in Calgary and Edmonton is not going to make up for

00:13:14.800 losing Kitchener-Conestoga, or losing Cambridge, or losing Kitchener-South Hesper, or losing Niagara

00:13:21.480 ridings, or losing Ottawa area ridings, or having all of York and Vaughn go towards the Conservatives

00:13:26.620 because of the massive rightful Jewish backlash against the Liberals' basically soft on Hamas 0.74

00:13:32.900 policies. This is all going quite well for the Conservatives right now. Maybe so many Liberal

00:13:39.040 boomers have already shown up and voted that you just can't overcome it. Naturally, older voters have 0.98

00:13:45.520 always disproportionately voted Liberal a bit more because on the left, the NDP is the young lefty

00:13:50.840 party and the Liberals are the older lefty party. But I would say that everything has been a little

00:13:56.600 bit overwrought when it comes to the Liberals' polling. Again, Conservatives have a lot of things

00:14:01.780 going against them when it comes to polling. You have to be an amazing pollster, like Innovative or

00:14:07.460 Janet Brown or Abacus, to get even a slightly realistic picture of what's going on. Look at

00:14:13.400 Saskatchewan. There was a 15% polling miss by many of the polling firms where they thought the NDP,

00:14:19.660 the Saskatchewan NDP, we're going to win the popular vote. And the Saskatchewan party won it

00:14:24.880 by 11.9%. That is something that happens when you do not have a good data set. And what happens with

00:14:32.420 the Conservatives is that they have a rural vote and a farmer is not going to stop the combine to 1.00

00:14:37.120 take your stupid poll. They have a minority vote and minorities don't tend to take a lot of polls 1.00

00:14:41.960 and they are more fiscally and socially conservative than the average Canadian. And then you have the shy

00:14:47.500 conservative voter who doesn't really know if the pollster is going to mess with them and release

00:14:51.900 how they voted, or they don't know if they should be saying Liberal because there's so much media

00:14:56.860 propaganda, but in their heart, they still want to vote conservative and they're going to do that.

00:15:00.860 With all that stuff combined, if all these polls are still showing them tight, I assume that there's

00:15:06.580 a good chance that Conservatives are leading. Now, that doesn't mean the Conservatives are going to win

00:15:10.060 the election. Make sure you go out and vote and take 17 people with you. But it means that with

00:15:15.380 all of the media stories coming out that Pauliev could lose his riding of Carlton, it's stupid 0.99

00:15:19.760 propaganda to demoralize people. Because that's all that there's left to do. Because it has turned 0.98

00:15:24.820 into a turnout election. There's no big liberal advantage. Maybe there's a small conservative

00:15:29.500 advantage. I don't know. But let's say no advantage for anybody. It's a turnout election. So all the

00:15:34.220 liberals have left to do is try and push stories about Trump into the media. Carney's now lying about his

00:15:39.760 phone call with Trump back in late March saying, oh, he was talking about 51st state all over the place,

00:15:44.460 even though back then he said no, he's perfectly respectful and never brought it up. Because he

00:15:48.600 needs the headline now. They need to say that that Carlton might go red. Because maybe you're

00:15:53.640 thinking, well, Pauliev can't even win his own riding. What's the point of me showing up and

00:15:57.240 voting in Transcona? What's the point of me showing up and voting in the Atlantic provinces or in York or

00:16:03.940 whatever? The Conservatives can win. Make sure you show up and vote, guys. Anyways, so that's it for me

00:16:10.560 today. Thanks for watching the show, guys. Make sure to like the video, subscribe to the channel, leave a

00:16:14.620 comment. I'm about to go to the Pauliev rally in Calgary. Some of you are probably watching this video

00:16:20.940 driving over. So come and say hi or don't say hi. Do whatever you want. It's a free country. But I will be

00:16:27.720 back probably later today with another video. I might go door knocking for a candidate in the afternoon. It's a packed

00:16:33.880 schedule out there, folks. Anyway, so see you later whenever I happen to be back.

The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - April 25, 2025

BIG polling swing towards the Conservatives! (+4% CPC)

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