The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - April 03, 2025


Big Win： Conservatives lead Liberals 12% with 2021 non voters!


Episode Stats


Length

11 minutes

Words per minute

192.68723

Word count

2,187

Sentence count

111

Harmful content

Misogyny

2

sentences flagged

Hate speech

1

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

Wyatt Claypool explains why the Tories are winning with non-voters, and why it could spell disaster for the Liberals in this election. He also points to the growing non-Voter turnout numbers as a key reason why the Conservatives are winning.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
00:00:00.000 Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here. I have some great polling news today for the Conservative Party and Pierre Polyev that I think explains how it is that Pierre Polyev can be absolutely blowing Mark Carney out of the water when it comes to rally sizes, yet Mark Carney and the Liberals are still leading Polyev and the Conservatives nationally by two to five points depending on the mainstream pollster you look at.
00:00:25.500 Some pollsters do actually have the Conservatives up or it's a very tight race, but overall I think what the problem here is is not that pollsters are trying to rig things or anything like that. Some of them are, but most of them I think are just not doing amazing work, and what they're missing is the non-voter.
00:00:41.820 The voter who doesn't usually come out to vote, but is voting this time. That is the demographic that Pierre Polyev and the Conservatives are winning the hardest. More than how much they are winning men by, they are winning people who don't usually vote, and if this election has high turnout, and it looks like it will, the Liberals might get absolutely swamped and not know what happened.
00:01:03.920 Before I get into the numbers here, I just want to remind you guys, make sure to like this video, subscribe to the channel if you like my federal election coverage and you haven't done so yet, and leave a comment.
00:01:14.700 You know, I always like to see what people think, and it helps our videos out on the algorithm.
00:01:18.680 By the way, I like to link the Conservative Party lawn sign sign-up link in the description below and pinned at the top of the comments.
00:01:26.160 Make sure you have a lawn sign. This is a do-or-die election. Let people know who you're voting for because it's not a time to be shy.
00:01:32.460 So, now I want to get into what David Colletto from Abacus Data has posted, and to be clear, this is the pollster I have been basically pointing out the entire time is the one I trust the most, at least in this federal election.
00:01:45.740 You know, pollsters' quality comes and goes. They've been the most consistent. They haven't been having these wild polls where the Liberals are super far down, and then it's a tie, and then the Liberals are way far ahead, then it's a tie again.
00:01:56.260 When pollsters are having erratic numbers like that, it means they have a very erratic sample that is too closely monitoring the news.
00:02:04.280 I actually heard the problem with Angus Reid is that they got all of their data for who they call an email for their polls based on, like, old air miles data, which means it's mostly upper-middle class people who travel a lot.
00:02:17.740 So, it tends to skew a little bit more metropolitan liberal, so you shouldn't be shocked when they put out polls showing the Liberals ahead by five or six points.
00:02:26.760 Anyways, David Colletto here says,
00:02:29.000 Among those non-voters who now say they are certain to vote, it is 46% Conservative Party, Liberal Party,
00:02:58.980 a 34% NDP 11.
00:03:03.200 It is a 12-point lead, nearly a majority of people who didn't vote in 2021, but feel likely to vote this time.
00:03:12.180 They are leading, the Conservatives are leading with this demographic by 12%.
00:03:17.140 If this election becomes like a 72% turnout affair, goodness, the Liberals are going to get swamped in so many working class ridings of people who are, you know, people who are electricians, plumbers, basically younger working class men who never vote because they just don't care.
00:03:35.460 I'm going to watch hockey, I'm going to watch whatever, I don't care, I'm going to go out with my friends, we're doing anything other than politics.
00:03:42.000 Those people are ticked off enough to show up.
00:03:44.380 Because the problem with the demographics the Liberals are working with, which tends to be older women in cities, not to be, I'm being stereotypical, but it's generally what the polls say.
00:03:53.840 That demographic already turns out in high margins.
00:03:56.640 You really can't get older voters to show up more than they already do because older voters grew up in an era where you should vote because your parent told you to vote, and that's a good value to have.
00:04:06.400 That never really got passed down past that point, so you always had millennials and Gen Xers and Zoomers, they don't vote a lot. 0.91
00:04:15.080 But this election they might, and that could be an absolute disaster for the Liberals.
00:04:19.280 This is what the turnout was like back in 2021.
00:04:22.940 62.3% of people turned out in the 2021 election.
00:04:28.140 So there are still 37.7% of the vote that is up for grabs that could potentially show up.
00:04:34.880 Now let's be clear, probably 20% of the population will not vote no matter what.
00:04:39.640 They are just religiously against it in terms of how lazy they are, they just don't care.
00:04:45.080 But again, if another 7% or 8% of the vote turns out, and they are leaning conservative by 12% higher than they're leaning liberal, that changes literally everything.
00:04:58.880 And by the way, you're not going to detect these people very easily in polls.
00:05:02.620 Some people become more politically activated, and when they start getting emails to take a poll or an IVR poll, gets them on the phone where they pick it up and they punch in the number of the party that they want to vote for to indicate their support.
00:05:15.820 Most of those people who don't vote, they're not going to become that active.
00:05:19.620 They're voting this time because they like Polyev and they hate the Liberals.
00:05:23.600 But they're not going to suddenly start signing up to voter sample pools and answer questions and get on the phone and listen to the robotic voice for five minutes.
00:05:32.220 They're not going to do that.
00:05:33.420 They are simply going to show up, put a ballot in the ballot box, and leave.
00:05:37.400 By the way, here's another piece of data that I think is interesting to look at.
00:05:41.840 This is day one approval of Mark Carney when the election first started up in the mainstream polling average.
00:05:48.260 He had a strong approval rating of 30% and somewhat approval of 24.
00:05:53.860 Only 11% of people somewhat disapproved and 28% strongly disapproved, which is basically saying conservatives don't like him.
00:05:59.760 Now on day 10, things have actually changed quite a bit.
00:06:04.180 His strong approval has fallen by two points.
00:06:06.520 His somewhat approval has also kind of risen, but it's a little bit soft.
00:06:10.180 But his disapproval has been rising steadily.
00:06:13.160 That wasn't even the worst one that's come through so far.
00:06:15.560 But at the start of the race, he had a net approval rating of plus 18.
00:06:21.380 Now it's down to about plus 8, plus 9.
00:06:25.300 And other pollsters have showed this too.
00:06:27.460 Abacus data has been the least dramatic, actually, in demonstrating his approval rating has been falling.
00:06:32.820 But as my friend Chris at the Great Canadian Bagels polling channel has said,
00:06:38.200 the thing is that when a leader is new, and this is why Kim Campbell in 1993,
00:06:42.060 her approval rating skyrockets, and the PC voting intention skyrockets as well after she takes over from Brian Mulroney.
00:06:49.060 The reason that happens is that she is a black box void. 0.72
00:06:53.520 Nobody knows what she is, and so they are willing to fill her with all their hopes and dreams,
00:06:58.940 assuming that she represents everything that they like.
00:07:01.600 That's the same thing with Mark Carney, and he's not even quite past this point of his leadership yet.
00:07:07.080 That as the election drags on, and the debate is definitely going to clarify this,
00:07:11.960 he is not everything that the liberal media has said he is.
00:07:14.620 He is not everything that people who were originally voting conservative,
00:07:17.860 but maybe this guy is going to be even better than the conservatives, and he's going to be softer and nicer,
00:07:22.320 and he's going to give me candy and all that, because people are always looking for someone who's,
00:07:26.900 can they be what we need but also be nice about it?
00:07:29.900 That's what you get a lot of people abandoning Pollyov over.
00:07:32.860 Oh, he's too mean.
00:07:34.220 Once they realize Carney's incompetent, they're not going to be wanting to vote liberal.
00:07:38.740 They will probably want the competent person first, and the nice incompetent person second.
00:07:43.660 Anyway, so then what I want to do, too, is I just want to bring up this other Abacus data poll,
00:07:48.920 and this is about election framing.
00:07:51.100 It's a bit abstract, but it's demonstrating that for the most part,
00:07:55.060 people actually don't really want this election to be about Trump.
00:07:58.300 Maybe it's good for the liberals, but the problem is it's also good for the NDP for the election to be about Trump,
00:08:03.480 because the NDP can play the game of who's the most anti-Trump with the liberals.
00:08:08.020 So the red section of each of these pie charts is asking people, basically,
00:08:15.000 do you think if the election is about these two things, either it's about Trump or it's about this other thing?
00:08:19.180 Red is this election is about tariffs and Trump.
00:08:22.520 Now, tariffs and Trump wins out when the other framing is which party is best able to deliver change in direction and policy.
00:08:30.180 That's too abstract, so obviously the more clear question of Donald Trump wins out on this one.
00:08:34.780 But look at this one. Which party, this is the purple one in the middle,
00:08:39.200 which party is best able to reduce your cost of living?
00:08:42.960 When you make that the framing up against Trump, 58% of people would like that to be what the election is about.
00:08:49.440 And then even when you go on to this one, which party with the best plan to grow the economy?
00:08:54.560 It is a little bit more narrow, but it's 53 to 47 people prefer the election to be about growing the economy
00:09:00.800 and reducing your cost of living.
00:09:03.040 Now, Carney is attempting to grab a hold of that cost of living section of the pie
00:09:08.520 by reversing himself on the carbon tax, getting rid of it and trying to champion it
00:09:12.600 as if he was the anti-carbon tax guy.
00:09:15.220 I think enough people are going to see through that.
00:09:16.780 It's not going to really matter.
00:09:17.980 A lot of people are going to see this as him being clubbed into doing it by the conservatives and nothing else.
00:09:22.540 But he understands that this election cannot be about Trump.
00:09:25.560 And by the way, do you know what just happened?
00:09:27.620 Hand is not getting significant tariffs on us.
00:09:29.740 So the Trump issue from here on out today was the peak, was the fever pitch peak that, oh my goodness,
00:09:36.440 Trump could put a 70% tariff on us.
00:09:38.880 That fear is gone.
00:09:40.260 So now the election has to be fundamentally about something else.
00:09:43.140 And when you actually poll people on who's better on the economy, who's better on taxes,
00:09:47.440 who's better at getting stuff done for people's finances, that's where Polly have has the edge over Mark Carney. 1.00
00:09:54.300 So not only do I think that there is this kind of helms deep scenario we're in to cite Lord of the Rings,
00:10:00.400 where it looks like it's going to be a tough battle that the conservatives will lose,
00:10:05.100 that we have a lot of voters who are not even showing up in these polls who are going to be showing up to vote for the conservatives.
00:10:11.100 And then on top of that, I think as we get towards the debate and as the election narrative shifts,
00:10:16.220 it's going to be shifting in a direction that Carney and the liberals don't want it to be.
00:10:20.300 They want it to be about Trump.
00:10:21.460 They want it to be about external threats.
00:10:23.060 They don't want it to be about actual competency and the record of the liberals.
00:10:28.700 They want it to be about anything else other than that.
00:10:32.140 Anyways, but that should be it for me today, guys.
00:10:35.100 Just want to do this quick little update on the polls.
00:10:37.400 I actually have another polling video that will be out tomorrow on a specific question I worked with.
00:10:43.520 I believe it's always hard for me to say the polling company's name.
00:10:46.920 It's Kolo Sovsky Strategies.
00:10:50.060 Anyways, we ended up coming together to cook up a polling question to see what the mood in the country was on a specific issue.
00:10:56.120 And I will be making a video on that out tomorrow so that you can see, like, it's basically I'm trying to prove my theory of politics.
00:11:03.300 And I think I proved it pretty well with this poll question that's coming out.
00:11:06.440 So look forward to that.
00:11:08.280 Like this video.
00:11:08.900 Subscribe to the channel.
00:11:09.720 Leave a comment.
00:11:10.280 Do all that stuff.
00:11:10.960 And make sure that you have a lawn sign on your lawn.
00:11:13.680 Unless, obviously, you're up in the 10th floor of an apartment and it doesn't matter.
00:11:17.980 Anyways.
00:11:18.620 So that's it for me today, guys.
00:11:20.520 See you later.