The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - Brutal： Trudeau's Liberals fall to 16% support in new poll (29% below Conservatives)

00:00:00.000 Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here. I'm stunned, honestly, with how bad the Liberals polling

00:00:08.300 is right now. Like, we've talked in the past about how it's insane that they were around

00:00:13.300 only 20% of the vote, and then that became normal, and I genuinely thought it was going

00:00:18.800 to be hard to make polling videos in the future, because I don't want to just put out a video

00:00:23.200 every single time the polls go up or down by 1%. Who cares? It's just me basically repeating

00:00:28.700 the same thing over and over again. But an Angus Reid poll just came out, and it's not

00:00:34.580 unrealistic at all, considering the news cycle. The Liberals are now at not 20%, not 19%, not

00:00:41.920 18%. They are at, drumroll, 16%. Brian Burgay just posted the Angus Reid results here. So

00:00:50.160 look, and it's perfectly consistent with the news cycle. The news cycle is what you should

00:00:56.160 usually use to kind of read if a poll seems reasonable. Like, we saw that over the past

00:01:01.320 few months, or especially last year. You would have the Liberals sort of tip up a little bit,

00:01:06.560 and then you'd have a bunch of people declare that it's going to be a big Liberal comeback

00:01:09.780 over the next year. And it's like, guys, what in the news cycle backs up that the Liberals are

00:01:14.660 actually going to start climbing? Because if they start climbing out of nowhere, and there's

00:01:18.160 no real story you can point to, oh, that's why, then it's probably not an actual long-term

00:01:23.320 trend we're going to see. 16%. Maybe isn't going to be the long-term trend, but I think

00:01:28.340 that the Liberals might start dipping around the mid-teens a little bit more often in the

00:01:34.160 next few months as the ongoing leadership crisis for Justin Trudeau grinds on. The Conservatives

00:01:40.060 in this poll have 45%. They have a 29% advantage. That's actually insane. That's, like, unheard

00:01:49.960 of in Canadian politics. The NDP somehow are beating the Liberals at 21%, which isn't even

00:01:57.000 a good result for the NDP. As you can see on that line graph, the NDP have been at 21%

00:02:03.360 in the past. They've sometimes been above 21%. You can even see December of last year, or

00:02:09.180 like December of 2014, they were doing better than the Liberals when Ignatieff had just lost,

00:02:14.660 and they were trying to figure out where they were at, and then Trudeau became the, you know,

00:02:18.920 Liberal leader and reversed it later on. But, like, wow, this is insane. And you see actually

00:02:24.060 there that the Bloc Québécois are higher than they've ever been. We're going to get to some of

00:02:29.280 the seat projections, because that's where this goes from insane to completely insane for the Liberals.

00:02:35.320 This could result, as has been pointed out by other people who study polling, as being something

00:02:40.940 that is going to get the Liberals only maybe one seat in all of Montreal. The red-walled

00:02:48.020 island of Montreal, a place where a glass of water could be elected as a Liberal member of Parliament

00:02:54.780 as long as it was the candidate, that city might only elect one Liberal. Brian Berguet had commentated

00:03:01.440 on his own post here, the regional numbers are so bad. Brian Berguet runs too close to call,

00:03:06.100 by the way, a polling projection website. And so he's using his own model to get these numbers below.

00:03:11.580 He says the regional numbers are so bad. Liberals at 13% in Quebec. That's my projection. I have

00:03:18.020 the Liberals at seven seats. Seven. He has the Conservatives at 245 seats. Reminder, they only need

00:03:25.080 172 for majority. He has the NDP at 25 and the Bloc at 66 seats. That would mean that the Bloc would not

00:03:32.700 just win Quebec. They would dominate Quebec. The Bloc would basically win every single Montreal

00:03:38.720 riding except for like a few, like a couple to the NDP, one for the Liberals, and then maybe

00:03:45.020 one for the Conservatives in somewhere like Mount Royal. And then outside of some suburban Conservative

00:03:50.000 seats, the Bloc would just take every single thing. Everything. They have all of it. Every single 0.96

00:03:55.100 one of them. Maybe the Liberals have a Quebec City seat. I don't know about the numbers in Quebec City.

00:03:59.980 But once we take away maybe one or two seats for the Liberals in Quebec, where can you even say the

00:04:05.360 other seats are? Like one or two in Toronto, one in Vancouver, one in like Winnipeg. It's literally

00:04:13.300 nothing. These people have nothing because they don't deserve anything. I want to get to this. Maybe

00:04:18.960 I'll do this now before we get to some other numbers. I thought this was actually a great response

00:04:23.620 by Pierre Polyev to something that the Liberals were saying, the Atlantic Liberals, because they've

00:04:30.600 asked for Trudeau to step down as a leader. Oh, it's his time to go. We can't go into another

00:04:35.380 election with him. We don't feel comfortable. Because in the past, the Conservatives have done

00:04:39.500 this, and I don't really like this, that if you're a Liberal who then goes after Trudeau,

00:04:44.000 you get the strange new respect that Democrats would give to Republicans who flip on Trump over silly

00:04:49.280 things, that you're now like, oh, wow, look, this Liberal has criticized Trudeau. They're a good

00:04:54.280 person. Polyev isn't doing that, which is correct, because these people have been sitting in the

00:04:58.420 Jacuzzi with Trudeau the entire time, supporting him until five seconds ago. So below here, you have

00:05:05.160 Brian Lilly sharing the post from Cody Blois out in King's Hance in the Maritimes, and this is the

00:05:11.460 entire Atlantic Liberal Caucus saying they'd like Trudeau to go. Maybe one or two of them were left out of

00:05:16.460 it, but for the most part, the Liberal Caucus went after him from Atlantic Canada. But here's

00:05:21.520 what Pierre Polyev said. I'm no defender of Trudeau, but this letter is a weasel move. No

00:05:26.860 admission that they are just as responsible as he is for breaking the country. All the Liberal MPs and

00:05:32.120 leadership contenders helped Trudeau double the debt, double housing costs, double gun crime,

00:05:37.020 double food bank use. Now they want to hide Trudeau under the rug right before the election to trick

00:05:41.740 Canadians into letting them keep power and continue doing the same thing they've done for

00:05:46.180 nine years. Absolutely correct. I don't respect a single one of these people because any one of

00:05:52.260 them, except for Wayne Long, I guess, could have said something sooner. Wayne Long had at least

00:05:57.100 called out Trudeau more than a year ago. I think he should have called him out probably about seven

00:06:01.960 years ago. Trudeau was a bad Prime Minister from day one, but if you're, I guess, in the Liberal mindset,

00:06:08.340 maybe you could say that it was a fine job he was doing for the first couple of years. I still don't

00:06:13.160 think he was doing a good job ever. But when was the crossover point when things started being bad?

00:06:18.480 You actually have to, like J.J. McCullough pointed out, and I mentioned it on the show yesterday,

00:06:23.540 when was the crossover point when Trudeau started doing a bad job? These people can't say because

00:06:28.720 they are big government ideologues and they can't actually come up with a reason why Trudeau's policies

00:06:34.200 were bad or why his leadership style was bad. They simply don't like that Trudeau is unpopular now and

00:06:39.880 they have to run with him as the leader. Anyone who replaces Trudeau will just be more of Trudeau.

00:06:45.860 Like, let's go and check out the polling because the polling on hypothetical leaders for the Liberal

00:06:51.220 Party basically shows nobody. Nobody. Because all the polling is just kind of scattered. There's no,

00:06:57.620 you couldn't say anything about why these people are popular or why they get the polling they have.

00:07:02.660 I don't even need to expand this because you understand that if I go down, it's going to be more and

00:07:06.360 more relevant people. It says, which of these people would make the best choice for a Liberal

00:07:11.780 leader? And I believe this is of all Canadians, not just Liberal supporters, but it shouldn't matter.

00:07:16.600 If there was a clear frontrunner, there would be a clear frontrunner. There was not 23% for Freeland

00:07:22.640 means nothing. It just means that 23% of people know who Freeland is. Maybe 3% of those people

00:07:27.980 genuinely think she'd be a good leader. Mark Carney incomes in second place, 17%.

00:07:32.360 Melanie Jolie, 13%. Dominic LeBlanc, 10%. Christy Clark, 10%. Champagne, 9%. Anand, 9%. Wilkinson,

00:07:39.640 9%. None of these people have any support. This is just name recognition. But while I know that MP

00:07:46.220 because he's from my general region, I'll say he sounds like a good guy because I guess I'll pick

00:07:51.480 somebody that I recognize who's more local if you're voting in this hypothetical. And then some

00:07:55.900 people who don't know who any of the local people are say, I guess Freeland, I suppose Carney,

00:08:00.180 I suppose Christy Clark, my goodness, this would be the most beige-tinted leadership race you've ever

00:08:08.260 seen if these people were running. What do you say about any of them? Like, I don't usually like the

00:08:12.600 term because it gets overused, although it does deserve to be used at some times. And this is one

00:08:17.900 of those times. These people are all globalists. All these people just basically parrot policy that gets

00:08:24.440 farted out by any other socialist-y big government government around the world from the UN, the WEF.

00:08:31.460 They all basically agree on the same stupid big government policies. And the funny thing is, I hate

00:08:36.880 the idea now that people are like, oh my goodness, free trade is a globalist policy. No, it is not.

00:08:41.260 A globalist policy is a policy where you are literally mandating that every country only produce so

00:08:46.540 much of whatever. Basically, it's like EU-style socialism, where basically different countries

00:08:53.400 in Europe are capped on their projection levels and whatnot. And it becomes a complete fiasco of

00:08:58.340 trying to maintain some level of equity in this trade bloc, even though some countries do not

00:09:03.780 deserve at all to be lifted up because of their terrible domestic policies. But anyways, let's go back

00:09:10.520 to the polls about Canada as a whole. This is another poll that came out. I was actually going

00:09:17.000 to do a video on this poll because conservatives are 26% higher than the liberals. I thought that

00:09:23.560 was a bad poll result for the liberals. But apparently, the Angus Reid one was like the real meltdown

00:09:29.140 one I should have been talking about. So good, I think I didn't end up going all in on that one right

00:09:34.280 away. Here is Shrey Attiste. I think he does a great job analyzing polling online. He has his own

00:09:40.820 website, PoliWave. I heard it's only just a 16-year-old guy, but he does a fantastic job. So

00:09:45.320 make sure to go follow him if you're on X. But he says, latest Angus Reid poll modeled out has

00:09:50.240 liberals winning only one seat in Montreal and Quebec. Okay, so it's only one seat in the entire place.

00:09:55.920 So the conservatives grab up. It looks like four seats here. The NDP grabs up like another four or five

00:10:01.840 seats. And the liberals get one seat. I don't even think that's Papineau. So in this, Trudeau is

00:10:06.940 losing probably by a landslide because he doesn't usually win his riding by like 60%. He wins by like

00:10:13.040 20%. And that's only because he tends to have like a big car crash between the NDP, the conservatives and

00:10:19.180 the bloc, preventing him from having a real challenger. But he only wins 50%, which is not that much of the

00:10:24.120 vote. That's not exactly like a conservative MP in a rural area where they win 75% of the vote.

00:10:29.560 50%. If he starts losing 10%, like, you know, 15% collectively against his opponents, it's starting

00:10:36.640 to get pretty snug for him. Anyways, okay, let's move on here. This one's hilarious. So another post by

00:10:44.760 Brian Breguet here. Again, Brian's also a great creator. You guys should go check him out. Again,

00:10:49.340 runs too close to call. Ran in Vancouver Lingara for the provincial conservatives. Great guy. He says,

00:10:54.380 guys, only 29% of liberal voters want Trudeau to remain. It's so Trudeauver, we're running out of

00:11:00.680 words to describe how over it is. So in total, the options here are, if I can bring it up properly.

00:11:08.000 And so basically the red thing is that the question is, here are some scenarios to consider about the

00:11:13.640 political situation in Canada. Please indicate which one you'd prefer to see play out. The soft blue is

00:11:19.200 that Trudeau calls an election early and that we basically get this over with. That's why 66% of

00:11:24.400 conservatives want that option. Red is that the liberals have a leadership race and Justin Trudeau

00:11:32.100 resigns. And then 7% is Justin Trudeau remains his prime minister as long as his party has a minority

00:11:38.180 in parliament, which basically says he should try and stay in power as long as possible until the next

00:11:42.440 election. No doubt 7% of conservatives voted for that option in this poll, just because they want the

00:11:47.980 catharsis of seeing Trudeau lose. But only 29% of liberal voters want Justin Trudeau to remain until

00:11:56.000 the next election. 59% would like to see him resign. That's getting funky when you compare the liberal

00:12:02.880 NDP and bloc results and they're almost identical. They're not that different looking compared to each

00:12:09.240 other. That most people want him to go in all three of those parties, even though all three of those

00:12:14.900 parties have an investment in Trudeau staying in office. The NDP is only relevant if Trudeau stays

00:12:21.100 in office. The bloc is only relevant if Trudeau stays in office, because it's going to be, as we've

00:12:26.260 seen, a wipeout election victory for the conservative party, as it should be at this point. Have the

00:12:32.440 conservatives fully deserved it? I think generally, yes. But I also think that it's more so that the

00:12:38.420 liberals just suck. Nobody likes the liberals. So this is actually one of those things. I'm going

00:12:42.980 to plug my website, guys. Go check out my website in the description below, wyattclaypool.com,

00:12:48.360 because now more than ever, you almost have to put pressure on the conservatives to make sure that

00:12:53.640 when they get into office, they will lower immigration significantly. I think it needs to be

00:12:58.020 an 80% reduction across the board, visas and new permanent residencies. Like refugees, 80% reduction. 1.00

00:13:05.380 It's not sensible to bring people from halfway across the world to Canada, especially when they 1.00

00:13:10.580 just do not line culturally skill-wise to our country and how we do things. But what you need

00:13:16.760 to do, go sign up on my website, because I want to make sure that in nomination races and leadership

00:13:21.160 races, we have actual orthodox conservatives representing the party, not just somebody who

00:13:26.400 would have run for the liberals if they had a better chance, but they'll jump in the conservative

00:13:29.780 nomination because it's easier to win that race. So make sure, sign up there. I'm going to recommend

00:13:34.360 some people in leadership races provincially, as well as federally in nominations as really good

00:13:39.820 options to represent your actual conservative values. Another post by Shreya Teest here, he says,

00:13:46.400 liberals won every single Toronto seat in 2021. Now they are projected to lose every single one of

00:13:53.040 them. And look, the most you can, the most the liberals get in any of these writings, the highest result is

00:13:58.120 32%. That is their best result. The NDP ends up taking a handful, but then the rest of them just go to the

00:14:03.820 conservatives. And by margins of sometimes 57%, York Centre, bye-bye Yarra Sachs. It's crazy. 55%, 56%. These are

00:14:14.120 Toronto ridings. I really hope Spadina Harbourfront ends up having Kevin Vong as the conservative

00:14:21.680 candidate. Kevin is a fantastic independent MP, and I think he is the key person to run in a riding like

00:14:28.180 that. Not just have the liberals lose. Right now it's going towards the NDP. But if the conservatives want to

00:14:33.440 win, I think Kevin Vong has to be the Spadina Harbourfront candidate. But all this seems like a

00:14:40.300 great post-Christmas present. Great way of starting the new year, Justin Trudeau in literal full collapse,

00:14:46.880 skiing somewhere, thinking about proroguing Parliament, probably fiddling away while some

00:14:51.800 buildings burn in front of him. I don't know. It's his life. He gets to live it. But yeah.

00:14:57.020 It's fun out there. It's a lot of fun. So yeah. Reiterating, hey guys, make sure you subscribe to

00:15:05.020 the channel, like this video, leave a comment, sign up on my website if you like. It's going to get

00:15:11.200 really funny in 2025. At this point, if the liberals wanted to act like to remain, maintain some

00:15:18.180 respectability, they should just have an early election, take the loss now, and like don't be

00:15:23.220 the party that holds on for dear life. Remember, seven seats, if they only win seven seats or 14

00:15:28.960 seats, they will literally not be an official party anymore. They will just be a representative

00:15:33.900 party, but they're not official party. They would lose official party status. That's how pathetic they

00:15:38.740 are. They would be like the Green Party. It's insane how bad this is. And so if they hang on to

00:15:44.460 October, I guarantee what happens to them, I don't think they go away entirely because they're too old

00:15:48.760 of the party to permanently go away. But what happens if the liberals hold on for dear life

00:15:53.740 until October is I think they become like social credit. Social credit in many provinces in Canada,

00:15:59.580 Quebec, Alberta, and BC, once their time had kind of gone where people wanted a new election,

00:16:06.060 they wanted a new government, the social credit party with like interim premiers and interim leaders

00:16:11.400 were holding on for dear life until the very last second when they had to call the election,

00:16:15.980 which meant that people just resented them. And it kind of put the nail into the coffin. It signaled,

00:16:21.080 we know we're never getting in government for a long time, or we're never going to get into

00:16:25.640 government again. So we're just going to hold on here as long as humanly possible. And that's how

00:16:30.540 Trudeau is acting. He's acting like this is the last time both he and the liberals will ever be in

00:16:34.700 government. And Canadians are going to pick up on that. It's going to make them look like a dead party.

00:16:39.580 And I think they kind of are at least for a decade or two, they're going to be the second third place

00:16:45.140 party by a long shot. Anyways, that's it for me today, guys. Have a great one. Do all those things

00:16:51.560 I mentioned, subscribe, like the video, and have a great day.

The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - December 31, 2024

Brutal： Trudeau's Liberals fall to 16% support in new poll (29% below Conservatives)

Episode Stats

Summary

Transcript