The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - Canada's election outcome will be CHAOTIC! (Polling miss is real)

00:00:00.000 Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here. A bit ago I posted a chart that looked like this on X,

00:00:06.920 and there's a bunch of liberals freaking out about it for very ironic reasons. It's the 338

00:00:13.980 simulator that I sort of messed with the levels of to get a very odd looking election outcome

00:00:19.700 that could realistically happen. With 41.3% of the vote, the liberals could get 150 seats,

00:00:27.260 and with 39.9%, the conservatives could get 152, with the NDP grabbing 10 seats,

00:00:33.860 the Greens grabbing 1, and the Bloc Québécois grabbing 29. Now, a lot of liberals are mad at

00:00:40.280 the idea of this happening because they cannot compute the fact that they would win the popular

00:00:44.880 vote but still lose the election. In fact, this absolutely could happen. The conservative vote

00:00:52.500 is becoming more efficient in this election, and the liberal vote is becoming less efficient

00:00:57.320 because the type of votes that the liberals are attracting over to their party right now

00:01:01.960 tend to be older retired people who watch way too much legacy media, and they have flipped on the

00:01:08.320 conservative party because they're going to stick it to Trump this election. Now, obviously, this does

00:01:13.120 not apply to any of you watching this video right here. You're watching a conservative YouTuber online,

00:01:19.100 not watching Rosemary Barton on the CBC. But there is a good portion of voters who fit that bill of

00:01:25.680 legacy media viewers, and obviously legacy media viewers are even in the younger age demographics,

00:01:31.160 and those people actually tend to be located in areas where either the liberals were already going

00:01:36.520 to win the riding with 45-50% of the vote, now they're going to win it with 65%, or like in my riding

00:01:43.420 of Calgary Signal Hill, like I witnessed yesterday, where the conservatives win 68% of the vote,

00:01:49.900 the conservatives will win with 58% of the vote, or 55% of the vote, or even maybe a little bit less

00:01:55.600 than that because of the legacy media viewers who want to stick it to Trump. And it's just going to

00:02:01.000 result in the liberals getting a lot more national vote that doesn't do anything for them. I want to

00:02:06.600 break this down a little bit for you in just a second and go through Polly Wave's map because it's very

00:02:11.480 interesting where the conservatives are going to be picking up seats, where they actually are losing

00:02:15.600 seats, and where the liberals are picking up seats and losing seats. But before I get into it, guys,

00:02:20.520 I just want to remind you, if you like my federal election coverage, make sure to leave a like on

00:02:25.280 this video. If you're not yet a subscriber, hit the subscribe button and leave a comment on how you

00:02:30.700 think this election is going to turn out. Is it going to be a majority government for either side?

00:02:35.440 Is it going to be a minority? And who's going to win? And who's going to hold the balance of power? 0.53

00:02:39.460 Anyways, let's check out the Polly Wave website where Sheree Attiste, the guy on X, who in fact is only

00:02:48.140 16 years old, but he's put together a fantastic polling aggregation website. Right now with his

00:02:54.720 model, he has this race rated as 41.4% liberal nationally and 39.3% conservative, 9% NDP, 6.5 block,

00:03:05.520 1.9% green, 1.2% PPC, and 0.7% independent or even other smaller parties. Now, this is actually

00:03:16.320 basically what I had in the other chart I just showed a second ago. And you're going to look

00:03:21.700 through the seat counts here, and they're going to feel a little bit weird in the sense that the

00:03:26.500 conservatives are dropping seats in the prairies, and they're dropping seats in Alberta, but they're

00:03:31.880 picking up seats on Vancouver Island. They're picking up seats in southwestern Ontario. They're

00:03:36.720 picking up seats in east Ontario. They're picking up seats in Atlantic Canada and Winnipeg. They're

00:03:42.920 even grabbing up the Yukon. This is not an election outcome that you will have expected, and I do believe

00:03:50.480 the polls actually might miss. Now, Sheree Attiste, his poll or his model can only base itself off of the

00:03:57.460 polls that are out there. So he would probably rate it a little bit differently if he was just

00:04:02.260 making up numbers that he thought were more accurate. But right now, what Sheree Attiste's

00:04:07.340 numbers result in, in terms of seats right now, are 170 seats for the liberals, not quite a majority,

00:04:13.940 136 for the conservatives, 25 for the bloc, 10 for the NDP, and 2 for the Green Party. Now,

00:04:20.360 I want to take you to his map section here because I have some special insight on where the conservatives

00:04:26.520 are doing well based on my travels around the country. And if we can use the baseline numbers

00:04:33.400 that Sheree Attiste have to go off of, I think that the conservatives have a very good chance of

00:04:38.080 winning this election because I, just a little bit ago, got back from the Ottawa area region.

00:04:45.220 And right now, the map that Sheree Attiste has puts it as pretty much just going the exact same way

00:04:51.240 it went back in 2021. Check this out. So the riding of, let's scroll out a little bit,

00:04:58.120 the ride, this is Carlton, obviously, this is Pierre Polyev's riding that's around the Ottawa area.

00:05:02.460 But the riding of Kanata, Sheree Attiste currently has going 57.9 liberal to 35.4 conservative.

00:05:10.980 I can guarantee you, this is a conservative pickup riding. It's a more working class

00:05:16.680 neighborhood or riding in the Ottawa area. And right now, Greg Kung, the conservative candidate,

00:05:24.500 is massively outnumbering Jenna Suds, the current liberal MP there, in terms of signs on private 0.53

00:05:31.960 lawns. I've been told that he has more than 2,500 sign requests from locals in the area who want to

00:05:40.280 support him, which is unlike any election the conservatives have had in this area. Now, also,

00:05:45.940 I was in Nepean. Nepean, although Mark Carney's running there, and he's probably going to win

00:05:50.760 simply for the fact that he's the liberal leader and they are throwing volunteers into his area,

00:05:55.940 I think it's going to be closer than 56 to 33. In fact, Carney actually might screw over some of

00:06:03.380 his incumbents in this area because he has been poaching volunteers from people like Jenna Suds in

00:06:09.700 Canada, and he's been taking them from people like Anita Vandenbelt in Ottawa West Nepean.

00:06:15.940 In fact, the day before I came back from Ottawa, I was in Ottawa West Nepean in one of the most

00:06:21.940 liberal sections of that liberal riding, and the conservatives were probably getting double what

00:06:27.160 they got last time in that area. They probably only had about 13, 15% in 2021, and this time,

00:06:33.900 about every other door, every third door or so was voting conservative, and the ones that weren't

00:06:38.480 aren't exactly universally voting liberal since the NDP actually has a serious candidate in that area.

00:06:44.820 This is where this might be a very strange election. We might lose Calgary Confederation. We might lose

00:06:51.840 Calgary McKnight to the liberals. Calgary McKnight, granted, is a new riding that George Chahal jumped to

00:06:57.700 to get a Skyview. But still, conservatives might drop some ridings in Calgary and Edmonton, but they're

00:07:04.140 going to pick up weird out-of-the-box Ottawa ridings. They're probably going to be grabbing up

00:07:09.340 ridings like Kitchener-South Hesper here, Kitchener-Conestoga, and Cambridge. Based on the demos and

00:07:14.760 based on the geography, I don't see these areas, especially places like Kitchener-Conestoga with a

00:07:20.020 Hutterite population in it. They're not going to be going for the liberals. And now, this is the thing 0.64

00:07:25.920 that Shrey Attis does better than any other pollster out there. I will be linking the PolyWave 1.00

00:07:30.180 website below. He actually is cluing on to the fact, not that he didn't know this before, but he's

00:07:35.920 the only pollster who actually clues into the fact that minority voters are more likely to vote

00:07:41.460 conservative than they are to vote liberal. In fact, it's white voters who are propping up the liberal

00:07:47.260 party right now. And I just got off the phone with a guy who is deeply involved in polling analysis.

00:07:52.280 And what he pointed out, and by the way, even this map has like only one of the ridings in

00:07:57.380 Newfoundland going conservative. And I can say that's not true based on the fishermen protests

00:08:01.760 we've been seeing and all the people who know that the liberals staying in power basically ruins their

00:08:06.660 entire industry. But what I was told to, and it made a lot of sense and something that people should

00:08:13.240 consider, is in this election, the reason why we can be decently confident that there will be a polling

00:08:19.940 miss, is because the media has been so hard on peer poly and the conservatives comparing them to

00:08:26.480 the Republicans and Trump, that I think what we've generated is a shy conservative voter, somebody

00:08:32.460 who's not picking up the phone to take a poll, or if you ask them on the phone or an online survey,

00:08:36.880 they say liberal, even though they're going to be voting conservative, because, well, the whole

00:08:42.000 patriotism game that the media and the liberal party have been playing has made people artificially

00:08:47.380 say liberal when you ask them. But in fact, they're actually going to be in there. They're

00:08:52.900 going to be voting conservative, simply because that's who they were already committed to a year

00:08:56.940 ago. And just because there's all this news about the trade war and Donald Trump going on doesn't mean

00:09:01.360 that people are actually going to change how they're going to vote. It's just that liberals,

00:09:05.240 through a response bias, are still more likely to pick up the phone than the conservatives are.

00:09:10.760 Like some of these ridings that they have going liberal and conservative on here, and this isn't

00:09:15.060 fault, a model can only be so accurate, especially if polling is off. A lot of ridings that you will

00:09:21.280 see on maps like this just don't make any sense in terms of where they're going. I do think Bay of

00:09:26.820 Quinty is going to be going towards the conservatives. If you've seen how things have been going for

00:09:31.520 Mark Gerritsen, the liberal incumbent in Kingston and the islands, you would not believe it's 54% liberal

00:09:38.220 to 27% conservative. And here is my theory of what's going on, and I think it's playing out well.

00:09:43.640 The bloc has been tightening or strengthening itself around the Montreal area, and I think

00:09:50.140 they still have a few more ridings around Montreal to pick off and sort of enclose the liberals in

00:09:55.740 Montreal. This is another area where the liberal vote has become very inefficient. They're actually

00:10:01.640 up in Quebec compared to 2021. The problem is most of that vote increase is in places like Vimy.

00:10:09.140 It's in places like Papineau and St. Laurent, places where they're now going to be winning more

00:10:15.320 than 60% of the vote, where previously they had only won, you know, 50% of the vote. Some of these

00:10:21.500 places, they're rating the liberals win at literally over 70%. That is not, that is, that means that most

00:10:29.520 of the increase in national vote is going to places where the liberals can't win, or they were always

00:10:34.280 going to win. So on election night, if we see the conservatives come in at 40% and the liberals come

00:10:40.280 in at 41%, don't be shocked if you see the conservatives pick up 155 seats and the liberals

00:10:46.100 only get 142. I almost kind of see this entire election right now going into the final few days,

00:10:53.460 as if you're a history buff, Operation Market Garden. We have a few different operations going on

00:10:59.000 right now. And in the whole analogy of it, the conservatives are driving down the road trying

00:11:03.460 to get to Arnhem right now. And the liberals are trying to break out of Montreal. If the liberals

00:11:08.020 break out of Montreal and they start winning all these block seats, I think it's over for the

00:11:11.680 conservatives. I don't think that's going to happen because Yves-Francois Blanchet had a fantastic

00:11:16.720 French and English debate. He has hardened up all of his support around the Montreal area. The donut that

00:11:23.220 the BQ has in that area, I believe is going to hold. So I think that is already one operation

00:11:28.200 that has gone in the conservatives' direction in terms of it's not benefiting the liberals.

00:11:33.380 Now, we have a few other objectives that the conservatives need to secure. If they can win

00:11:38.820 a third of the seats or even a half of the, a half or a little bit more than a third, a little less

00:11:43.320 than half of the seats in Atlantic Canada, we are absolutely in business. If they can sweep

00:11:47.500 southwestern Ontario and then they can also pick off seats in like one or two seats in Ottawa,

00:11:53.080 if they can pick off Niagara, if they can pick off a St. Catharines, this is a conservative

00:11:59.780 minority government. And then all we are determining is how strong the minority government is going to

00:12:05.380 be and how much Bloc Québécois support they will have to rely on. So right now, I know there's a lot

00:12:10.620 of dooming people on social media. Whenever they see a poll come up that shows the conservative party

00:12:15.740 three points down, they're like, oh, there's no way the conservatives can win. Because remember last

00:12:19.960 election, they beat the liberals by a point and a half and they still got less seats. This might be

00:12:25.260 a completely inverted game now where the liberals, because they are winning a lot of, you know,

00:12:30.520 addicted legacy media viewers in ridings that the liberals will never win, or they are already

00:12:35.420 winning, you know, Parkdale High Park, and, you know, my riding of Calgary Signal Hill, those two

00:12:43.040 national vote increases in those ridings literally don't mean anything to them where the conservatives are

00:12:47.840 gaining in places they were only losing by 7% last election. They were only losing by 3% last

00:12:53.600 election. Working class neighborhoods, heavy union neighborhoods, you know, they keep getting more 0.99

00:12:58.880 and more union endorsements, police association endorsements, fishing authority endorsements,

00:13:03.780 like port authority endorsements. That does in fact matter. So anyways, that should be it for this

00:13:09.840 video today, guys. Just a quick update on how I see the election going. Hopefully you enjoy this sort

00:13:15.440 of stuff. Make sure to like the video, subscribe to the channel, leave a comment, do all that

00:13:19.400 fantastic stuff, and I'll see you guys at another time.

The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - April 24, 2025

Canada's election outcome will be CHAOTIC! (Polling miss is real)

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