The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - Canadian election called - Conservatives and Liberals in Dead Heat!

00:00:00.000 Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here, and welcome to Canada's next federal election.

00:00:06.780 Rather tellingly, Mark Carney, our technical prime minister, called the election to be as short as humanly possible.

00:00:14.700 It will only be 37 days and end on April 28th.

00:00:19.100 It's like he and his team knows that as more Canadians see him, they don't like him very much,

00:00:24.480 so they want this to be over and done with ASAP.

00:00:27.460 And so today what I want to do is go over some of what the leaders said in their opening remarks to kick this election off.

00:00:35.500 I want to go over the polling from Innovative Research and Abacus Data to show that this election is right now starting in a dead heat and anything could happen.

00:00:44.740 I still think that the Conservatives are at least going to win a minority government and can still win a majority government.

00:00:50.860 And then I want to go over some of the other things about Mark Carney's strategy and what I think the Conservative Party should be doing if they want to win.

00:00:59.080 Because of course, they could still fumble everything they have, never underestimate politicians' abilities to screw things up from all of the parties.

00:01:07.720 But anyways, before I get into it guys, I just want to encourage you to like this video if you like my election coverage.

00:01:14.120 And if you want to keep up with what I'm doing and you're not yet a subscriber, please go down and hit the subscribe button right now and leave a comment because it's great for us on the algorithm.

00:01:24.140 And I do like to scroll through and see what people are talking about when it comes to Canadian politics.

00:01:29.320 Anyways, though, without further ado, here is a clip of Mark Carney today when he was announcing the start of the election.

00:01:36.260 His sort of general pitch for why he should be the Prime Minister still after this very quick federal election.

00:01:43.940 There is so much more to do to secure Canada, to invest in Canada, to build Canada, to unite Canada.

00:01:54.760 That's why I'm asking for a strong, positive mandate from my fellow Canadians.

00:02:00.880 I've just requested that the Governor-General dissolve Parliament and call on an election for April 28th.

00:02:10.640 And it's already just so hollow.

00:02:14.080 His entire reason for existence is basically just becoming Prime Minister for a full four-year term.

00:02:20.800 And the only reason he's calling the election early is because he thinks it's his best chance now.

00:02:25.160 If the polls were actually six or seven points up for the Conservatives on average, he'd be waiting another couple of months.

00:02:31.700 In fact, I still think that may have been the smarter move for Carney because he's running an election with no accomplishments.

00:02:38.380 And everyone will eventually find out he was in charge of economic policy for the last four to five years.

00:02:44.720 Was Chrystia Freeland the finance minister?

00:02:47.400 Sure.

00:02:48.120 But do you really think that Justin Trudeau and Chrystia Freeland were controlling economic policy?

00:02:53.120 Or was it Mark Carney, the man who was the economic advisor for the last four to five years,

00:02:58.060 that even Chrystia Freeland's office was leaking on, basically saying she never wanted to make these decisions.

00:03:03.540 It was Mark's decision to make.

00:03:05.700 And Justin Trudeau basically goes along with whatever he wants. 1.00

00:03:10.720 The whole strong, positive mandate part is such stupid wish casting. 0.97

00:03:16.180 I'm calling this election for a strong, positive mandate. 0.98

00:03:20.380 What does that even mean?

00:03:21.420 And this is Mark Carney's fundamental flaws of a politician. 0.97

00:03:24.880 He's extremely boring and shallow.

00:03:27.160 And I think, again, as time goes on, people are going to be watching him and wondering,

00:03:32.060 is this really the guy we want as prime minister?

00:03:34.680 He doesn't have any pop.

00:03:36.380 He doesn't have any energy to him.

00:03:38.600 Do you want him negotiating with Donald Trump?

00:03:40.920 We already have clips where Donald Trump is saying he wants to negotiate with the liberals 1.00

00:03:45.900 because, you know, they're effectively just weak and pathetic. 1.00

00:03:49.820 He can get whatever he wants from them. 1.00

00:03:51.620 Here's Pierre Polioff kicking off his campaign today.

00:03:55.160 Now, desperate for a fourth term, liberals have replaced Justin Trudeau with his economic advisor

00:04:01.100 and handpicked successor, Mark Carney.

00:04:03.460 But a liberal is a liberal is a liberal.

00:04:07.240 It's the same old liberal MPs, the same liberal ministers, the same liberal advisors, the same liberal elites,

00:04:13.540 the same broken liberal promises of the last 10 years.

00:04:16.860 We cannot afford another lost liberal decade.

00:04:21.000 We need to put Canada first for a change with a new conservative government to axe taxes, reward work,

00:04:28.500 unleash entrepreneurs, harvest our resources, make things here, build homes for our youth,

00:04:34.660 secure our borders, rebuild our military, honour our history, and raise our flag.

00:04:42.440 Generally, it's pretty good from him.

00:04:44.740 He actually made the statement before Mark Carney walked out of Rideau Hall

00:04:48.680 asking the governor general for the new election.

00:04:51.740 I think one thing that the Polioff team really needs to hone in on is,

00:04:56.920 one, the Carney weakness against Trump, 0.99

00:04:59.020 the fact that Trump thinks he's so weak and pathetic he wants a liberal to win. 0.95

00:05:02.560 And then also go over the fact that Carney and his vision for not even just Canada, 0.98

00:05:09.760 but for the world in general is of an economic planner

00:05:13.140 wanting to move numbers around on an Excel spreadsheet

00:05:16.780 and decide where he wants the growth to be,

00:05:18.840 how many jobs he wants to create,

00:05:21.340 how many, you know, if he wants oil and gas development

00:05:23.940 or he wants green boondoggles.

00:05:26.360 And basically contrast Mark Carney being the fenced-in regulator

00:05:31.180 who wants to basically tell you how to do everything,

00:05:34.780 and then contrast that with Pierre Polyev being the guy

00:05:37.740 who wants you to have the freedom to choose

00:05:39.800 how you actually end up growing your own success.

00:05:43.540 You know, you're in charge of your own life,

00:05:45.380 and I'm getting out of the way because we've had 10 years

00:05:47.640 of the liberals getting in your way

00:05:49.580 and telling you that don't worry,

00:05:51.640 I'm going to lead you to success.

00:05:53.240 And after 10 years,

00:05:54.500 our per capita incomes have grown only 0.5%,

00:05:58.720 which is not even a fraction of what the next lowest growth is in the G7.

00:06:04.860 Absolutely wild.

00:06:05.940 Actually, I believe it's OECD.

00:06:07.620 So we're like the 10th place out of those 10 countries

00:06:11.580 or however many are in the OECD.

00:06:13.160 And the next biggest country for per capita income growth is at like 3%.

00:06:17.080 And we're at like 0.5%. 0.96

00:06:18.620 It's absolutely pathetic. 0.95

00:06:21.040 And now let's jump over to Jagmeet Singh 0.99

00:06:23.520 because to be fair, I guess we should talk about him.

00:06:27.820 So this is Jagmeet Singh's pitch for why you should make him the prime minister,

00:06:32.120 even though he has no ability to win, but we'll be nice.

00:06:35.320 You deserve a prime minister.

00:06:36.740 You can trust to make decisions in your best interest,

00:06:40.360 not to advance his personal wealth.

00:06:43.880 And we know that someone who's going to be fighting in your best interest,

00:06:47.640 that's not Mark Carney.

00:06:49.460 Is this, isn't this the same guy?

00:06:51.560 And I agree with him on Mark Carney,

00:06:53.080 but isn't Jagmeet Singh also the exact same guy

00:06:56.460 who made Canadians wait so he could get his pension?

00:06:58.920 My goodness.

00:07:00.220 In it for you is just such a weak slogan as well.

00:07:03.600 He has spent his whole career serving the interests of billionaires,

00:07:09.500 of shareholders, and CEOs.

00:07:12.040 He makes decisions that benefit people like him.

00:07:15.520 He's not our guy.

00:07:16.740 Because anyone who profits off the crisis

00:07:19.140 should not be in charge of fixing it.

00:07:22.220 Man, after this election, I think we have to take bets

00:07:25.180 on whether or not the NDP is actually going to even be an official party

00:07:28.900 or they're going to sink down to only like five seats,

00:07:30.980 which is the best thing that's ever happened for the Liberals

00:07:34.240 is the sheer incompetence of Jagmeet Singh.

00:07:37.020 Here's one thing I want to highlight from Liberals

00:07:39.200 who were attacking Pierre Polyev during his press conference,

00:07:41.980 highlighting that Polyev has still not gotten his security clearance. 0.91

00:07:46.080 One, this is an utterly ridiculous question,

00:07:49.080 and I just want to highlight it for that sole reason. 0.97

00:07:52.180 And then also just that it doesn't matter.

00:07:55.280 So Mr. Polyev, Mark Ramsey of the Toronto Star,

00:07:57.860 your party was the target of foreign interference

00:08:00.660 in the last two election campaigns,

00:08:02.340 but you're going into this one without the security clearance

00:08:05.360 necessary to receive briefings on this.

00:08:08.440 When should Canadians expect you to get that security clearance?

00:08:11.680 Well, I've already had clearance.

00:08:13.660 I was a minister in cabinet already,

00:08:15.200 and the government has the ability to give me any information

00:08:17.980 they think necessary.

00:08:19.220 But what I'm not going to do is go into a process,

00:08:22.160 a politically directed process by the Liberals

00:08:25.220 that they use to decide what I can see and say and comment on.

00:08:31.640 And we know that the Liberals have made Canada

00:08:34.240 a playground to foreign interference.

00:08:38.160 They're the ones that have benefited from foreign interference.

00:08:41.200 We also call on the government to have

00:08:42.940 the foreign registry set up for this election

00:08:46.040 so that Canadians know if any foreign or hostile regimes

00:08:50.300 are intervening in our democracy

00:08:53.240 so that we can expose that and protect ourselves.

00:08:56.120 By the way, and I just want to quickly show you,

00:08:58.720 this tweet, this video was tweeted out

00:09:01.680 by somebody who isn't a Liberal activist saying,

00:09:04.420 Jason Pugh here says,

00:09:06.160 watch, Pierre Polyev admits he doesn't have the security clearance

00:09:09.020 to receive briefings on foreign interference

00:09:10.940 going into the election.

00:09:12.600 Which, if you phrase it a different way,

00:09:16.600 the Liberals will not give Pierre Polyev critical information

00:09:20.500 regarding foreign interference in an election currently going on.

00:09:25.540 And as Polyev has pointed out,

00:09:27.000 they have not implemented the Foreign Agents Registry Act

00:09:30.220 to prevent foreign agents of different governments

00:09:33.280 trying to influence the election

00:09:34.340 from having to be open about what they're doing

00:09:36.620 so then they can be shut down by the police or CESIS.

00:09:39.560 It's absolutely insane that that is an actual line

00:09:43.580 that Liberal activists think is going to work.

00:09:46.040 The idea, he still hasn't gotten his security clearance.

00:09:48.480 And the Liberals are using that as an excuse

00:09:50.580 to not crack down on foreign interference

00:09:53.140 in which it wouldn't matter

00:09:54.440 because if Polyev took the security clearance,

00:09:57.300 he wouldn't even be able to talk about anything

00:09:59.720 that's actually pertinent for him to know.

00:10:02.200 So it's a complete catch-22.

00:10:04.360 To be able to talk about it,

00:10:05.480 you have to know about it.

00:10:06.920 And to know about it, you can't talk about it. 1.00

00:10:08.800 It's stupid. 1.00

00:10:10.260 Just absolutely stupid. 1.00

00:10:12.840 Anyways, so one other thing I just want to talk about today 0.98

00:10:15.840 because not really that much is going on at the moment.

00:10:19.920 Actually, this is a good segment from the CBC.

00:10:22.520 I want to highlight them basically calling out Mark Carney

00:10:25.940 for trying to run away from his emissions cap

00:10:27.860 at the same time his own environment minister is embracing it.

00:10:30.540 And then I want to get over to the polls.

00:10:32.140 But not much is going on today

00:10:34.580 because frankly it feels like it's going to be

00:10:36.660 a sleepy election from the Liberal side of things

00:10:38.720 because they want to bore Canadians to death 1.00

00:10:41.080 and hope that in a default-feeling election

00:10:44.200 they will show up and vote for the Liberals

00:10:45.880 because Trump bad or something.

00:10:49.600 David, Carney noted to reporters

00:10:51.700 and he appeared to suggest that he's open

00:10:54.380 to moving away from the emissions cap

00:10:56.280 that the federal government has in place

00:10:57.960 on the oil and gas sector.

00:10:59.820 Except this is confusing

00:11:01.100 because his own environment minister,

00:11:02.860 the new environment minister, Terry Duguid,

00:11:04.620 he said that this emissions cap is staying in place.

00:11:08.060 So which one is it?

00:11:09.140 Smith says she's confused and she's demanding answers.

00:11:12.980 The Prime Minister's word sounded kind of nice yesterday

00:11:15.320 until I looked at my phone right after the meeting with him

00:11:18.260 and found out that his new environment minister

00:11:20.020 had just told media on the other side of the country

00:11:22.720 that the federal Liberals would be keeping the emissions cap in place.

00:11:26.060 And this has been the same story for the last 10 years.

00:11:29.220 Liberals come to Albertans, Alberta,

00:11:31.480 they smile for the cameras,

00:11:32.480 they tell everyone how much they're going to work with Alberta

00:11:34.520 and support the energy sector.

00:11:36.180 Then they go home and proceed to do everything in their power

00:11:38.940 to roadblock and scare away investment from the energy sector.

00:11:42.140 We're just asking the question of the Prime Minister,

00:11:44.440 is he prepared to lift this destructive

00:11:47.000 and unconstitutional production cap or not?

00:11:50.520 Albertans and Canadians do want the answer

00:11:52.180 before they go to the polls and not after.

00:11:54.120 In fact, we'd like to have the answer today.

00:11:57.400 She actually just completely shredded him,

00:12:00.020 the Premier of Alberta, Daniel Smith,

00:12:01.640 when Mark Carney visited to try and like,

00:12:04.600 I guess, soften up Alberta by meeting with Premier Smith,

00:12:07.740 acting like, you know, maybe I'll move

00:12:10.020 in a more moderate direction on oil and gas

00:12:12.120 and not try and kill the industry.

00:12:13.600 And she just immediately published a list

00:12:15.540 of what she was looking for in that meeting

00:12:17.740 and then just came out and said,

00:12:18.800 yeah, none of it was actually met.

00:12:20.240 He basically only had fluff to tell me, you know,

00:12:23.120 and the one thing he did commit to

00:12:24.980 on maybe getting rid of the emissions cap

00:12:26.500 is already being contradicted in ways we've seen before.

00:12:29.480 And again, this is why Mark Carney

00:12:32.460 wants the election to be so short.

00:12:34.700 He cannot keep the lie together long enough

00:12:37.420 to go for 40 or 50 days.

00:12:39.460 He needs it to be as short as possible.

00:12:41.460 And I don't think he gets away

00:12:43.120 with actually just living with this kind of

00:12:45.780 middle ground approach he's taken on all the issues

00:12:47.800 where he's been the economic planner for five years,

00:12:50.880 but he pretends now he's the free market guy.

00:12:53.260 But like all socialists or socialistic people,

00:12:55.880 they like to live as capitalists,

00:12:57.760 but then they like to subject other people

00:12:59.660 to heavy regulations, taxes, and government control.

00:13:03.740 But now let's move over into what the polls

00:13:07.340 are currently looking like.

00:13:08.840 I want to show you two charts here,

00:13:10.800 and this is from Sheree Atiste's website,

00:13:13.340 polywave.com.

00:13:14.640 I would suggest you actually use this website

00:13:16.560 if you're looking for polling information right there,

00:13:19.360 polywave.com,

00:13:20.860 because I find it's more realistic

00:13:22.860 the way that the guy's models work.

00:13:25.280 So I find that the way he displays information

00:13:27.380 is more realistic,

00:13:28.600 whereas 338 can very much often have hyperbolic numbers.

00:13:32.580 But this is what the current polling looks like

00:13:35.060 for the election.

00:13:36.820 But I'm going to get to a bit of a twist in a second here.

00:13:39.040 So right now, as of May 21st, 2025,

00:13:42.480 polywave has the average at 37.4 for the Liberals,

00:13:46.540 37 for the Conservatives,

00:13:48.700 11.8 for the NDP,

00:13:50.420 the Block 6.4,

00:13:51.680 Greens 3.2,

00:13:52.720 PPC 2.2,

00:13:53.960 and other 1.2.

00:13:55.700 I guarantee probably half the PPC voters

00:13:58.220 split towards the Conservatives,

00:13:59.940 and other I don't think really represents anything

00:14:02.620 because there's no real other parties

00:14:04.400 running in this election.

00:14:06.000 But this is only if you factor in all of the polls.

00:14:09.540 But as I've said in previous videos,

00:14:11.500 I don't really trust all the polls.

00:14:13.180 This is factoring in organizations like ECOS.

00:14:16.360 It's putting in liaison strategies,

00:14:18.020 which has been recently exposed

00:14:19.480 as having connections to Chinese CCP front groups.

00:14:23.920 And so what I can do,

00:14:25.160 and what I like about Sharia Teest's website,

00:14:27.480 is you can deselect all the pollsters

00:14:29.500 that you're not a big fan of.

00:14:31.260 And the two pollsters I found that I really like over time

00:14:34.160 are Innovative Research and Abacus Data.

00:14:36.180 Now, we don't just go off of the last poll that came out

00:14:40.580 because the last poll is just a moment in time.

00:14:43.500 You always want to take a rolling average

00:14:45.480 of some of the last polls that came out.

00:14:47.660 And right now,

00:14:48.580 although Innovative Research's last poll

00:14:50.620 showed the Liberals up by one point on the Conservatives,

00:14:53.520 the Abacus ones still show the Conservatives leading by three.

00:14:56.760 And when you average a lot of the last couple of weeks' polls together,

00:14:59.740 what we have going into this election is 38.4 Conservatives,

00:15:05.660 33.6% Liberal, NDP 13.6, Block 6.7, Green 4.2, PPC 2.4, and other 1.1.

00:15:16.840 Again, I think probably about half that PPC number will go Conservative.

00:15:20.980 And I think this is a more realistic rating that we have here for the NDP.

00:15:25.360 It feels a little bit unbelievable that we would see the NDP

00:15:30.920 fall all the way down to what some pollsters are showing them

00:15:33.880 at like 10 or 9.

00:15:36.480 Jagmeet Singh may be incompetent.

00:15:38.540 Jagmeet Singh may mess up a peanut butter sandwich.

00:15:41.760 But I think as the NDP,

00:15:43.940 it's very difficult to actually punch below 12% on Election Day

00:15:48.100 simply because there is almost a cult-like following to the NDP

00:15:51.420 where they get the first 10 points for free.

00:15:53.520 And then they can usually cobble together anywhere from 5% up to another 10%

00:15:59.000 in order to extend their seats from 7% all the way to sometimes like 35%.

00:16:04.120 And so I think they're in this kind of polling hole at the moment

00:16:08.760 because all the excitement right now on the left is around Carney.

00:16:11.760 And as more people on the left realize that he is not really in their camp

00:16:16.300 because although he actually is quite radical in policy,

00:16:18.620 he's going to present himself the other way,

00:16:19.980 many of these people are going to migrate back towards the Conservatives.

00:16:24.360 But I would say this is still effectively a dead heat.

00:16:28.060 We're going to, let's just say it's 43% or 34% Liberal

00:16:31.800 and 38% for the Conservatives.

00:16:36.000 That may have the Conservatives barely winning a majority

00:16:39.740 or winning a minority government.

00:16:42.460 So right now that technically does still favor the Liberals

00:16:45.600 if they can form a coalition with all the other parties.

00:16:48.380 Although I'm not sure after more than 10 years of Liberal rule,

00:16:51.840 the Governor General is going to let them form a coalition.

00:16:54.780 It'll probably be more like 2008 again, or I guess 2006,

00:16:59.280 where the Governor General said,

00:17:00.900 yep, Stephen Harper, you manage the government

00:17:03.180 even though you only have a small minority.

00:17:05.880 You get to figure it out

00:17:06.740 because the Liberals have been in power for like 20 years now.

00:17:09.660 You figure it out.

00:17:11.520 And so the good thing though,

00:17:13.120 is that it's a very clear election question

00:17:15.540 that's going on right now.

00:17:16.980 You want the economic planning Liberals

00:17:18.900 or do you want some amount of freedom with the Conservatives?

00:17:22.440 Even any amount of freedom is better

00:17:24.020 than what's going on with the Liberals right now.

00:17:26.240 So if the Conservatives can pull ahead

00:17:27.880 by maybe a point and a half more, 2%,

00:17:30.600 if we are to assume that this is the current standings,

00:17:34.600 they win a majority.

00:17:35.700 If they slip back by a point and a half,

00:17:38.280 they also lose.

00:17:39.180 This is what I mean when I say it's a blind heat right now.

00:17:42.360 If the Conservatives can start recovering it,

00:17:44.120 if the Liberal honeymoon starts to end

00:17:46.500 and a lot of people realize like,

00:17:48.320 I don't feel confident with Mark Carney being Prime Minister,

00:17:50.820 I think that's when the Conservatives

00:17:52.200 start to jump ahead eight or nine points.

00:17:55.140 But this stays a knife fight the entire time.

00:17:58.080 This is an election where one slip of the tongue

00:18:01.140 in the debate, one bad ad, one a good attack ad

00:18:04.940 could make the difference in like a dozen ridings

00:18:08.060 that give the government from one party to the other.

00:18:11.780 So anyways, that should be it for me today.

00:18:14.880 I'm going to be back tomorrow doing more election coverage,

00:18:18.500 covering the polls,

00:18:19.560 covering how the different parties are maneuvering.

00:18:22.080 And if you want to keep up with that, guys,

00:18:23.900 reminder, again, like the video,

00:18:25.560 subscribe to the channel, leave a comment,

00:18:27.300 do all that great stuff.

00:18:28.500 Share the program with friends if you can.

00:18:30.200 I'm trying to hit 100,000 subscribers

00:18:32.160 by mid-December of this year.

00:18:34.140 I wish the election was a little bit later

00:18:36.260 because I would have liked a little bit more lead-up time

00:18:38.360 to getting prepared for this.

00:18:40.200 But, you know, it's just how life works sometimes.

00:18:43.060 And I guess after that,

00:18:45.420 that's it for the show today.

00:18:46.620 And I'll see you guys later.

The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - March 23, 2025

Canadian election called - Conservatives and Liberals in Dead Heat!

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