The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - March 23, 2025


Canadian election called - Conservatives and Liberals in Dead Heat!


Episode Stats

Length

18 minutes

Words per Minute

181.00238

Word Count

3,402

Sentence Count

179

Hate Speech Sentences

1


Summary

In this episode, Wyatt Claypool goes over some of the key takeaways from the candidates' opening statements, the polling, and why he thinks the Tories are going to win the election. He also talks about why he doesn't think Justin Trudeau is going to be a good Prime Minister.


Transcript

00:00:00.000 Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here, and welcome to Canada's next federal election.
00:00:06.780 Rather tellingly, Mark Carney, our technical prime minister, called the election to be as short as humanly possible.
00:00:14.700 It will only be 37 days and end on April 28th.
00:00:19.100 It's like he and his team knows that as more Canadians see him, they don't like him very much,
00:00:24.480 so they want this to be over and done with ASAP.
00:00:27.460 And so today what I want to do is go over some of what the leaders said in their opening remarks to kick this election off.
00:00:35.500 I want to go over the polling from Innovative Research and Abacus Data to show that this election is right now starting in a dead heat and anything could happen.
00:00:44.740 I still think that the Conservatives are at least going to win a minority government and can still win a majority government.
00:00:50.860 And then I want to go over some of the other things about Mark Carney's strategy and what I think the Conservative Party should be doing if they want to win.
00:00:59.080 Because of course, they could still fumble everything they have, never underestimate politicians' abilities to screw things up from all of the parties.
00:01:07.720 But anyways, before I get into it guys, I just want to encourage you to like this video if you like my election coverage.
00:01:14.120 And if you want to keep up with what I'm doing and you're not yet a subscriber, please go down and hit the subscribe button right now and leave a comment because it's great for us on the algorithm.
00:01:24.140 And I do like to scroll through and see what people are talking about when it comes to Canadian politics.
00:01:29.320 Anyways, though, without further ado, here is a clip of Mark Carney today when he was announcing the start of the election.
00:01:36.260 His sort of general pitch for why he should be the Prime Minister still after this very quick federal election.
00:01:43.940 There is so much more to do to secure Canada, to invest in Canada, to build Canada, to unite Canada.
00:01:54.760 That's why I'm asking for a strong, positive mandate from my fellow Canadians.
00:02:00.880 I've just requested that the Governor-General dissolve Parliament and call on an election for April 28th.
00:02:10.640 And it's already just so hollow.
00:02:14.080 His entire reason for existence is basically just becoming Prime Minister for a full four-year term.
00:02:20.800 And the only reason he's calling the election early is because he thinks it's his best chance now.
00:02:25.160 If the polls were actually six or seven points up for the Conservatives on average, he'd be waiting another couple of months.
00:02:31.700 In fact, I still think that may have been the smarter move for Carney because he's running an election with no accomplishments.
00:02:38.380 And everyone will eventually find out he was in charge of economic policy for the last four to five years.
00:02:44.720 Was Chrystia Freeland the finance minister?
00:02:47.400 Sure.
00:02:48.120 But do you really think that Justin Trudeau and Chrystia Freeland were controlling economic policy?
00:02:53.120 Or was it Mark Carney, the man who was the economic advisor for the last four to five years,
00:02:58.060 that even Chrystia Freeland's office was leaking on, basically saying she never wanted to make these decisions.
00:03:03.540 It was Mark's decision to make.
00:03:05.700 And Justin Trudeau basically goes along with whatever he wants.
00:03:10.720 The whole strong, positive mandate part is such stupid wish casting.
00:03:16.180 I'm calling this election for a strong, positive mandate.
00:03:20.380 What does that even mean?
00:03:21.420 And this is Mark Carney's fundamental flaws of a politician.
00:03:24.880 He's extremely boring and shallow.
00:03:27.160 And I think, again, as time goes on, people are going to be watching him and wondering,
00:03:32.060 is this really the guy we want as prime minister?
00:03:34.680 He doesn't have any pop.
00:03:36.380 He doesn't have any energy to him.
00:03:38.600 Do you want him negotiating with Donald Trump?
00:03:40.920 We already have clips where Donald Trump is saying he wants to negotiate with the liberals
00:03:45.900 because, you know, they're effectively just weak and pathetic.
00:03:49.820 He can get whatever he wants from them.
00:03:51.620 Here's Pierre Polioff kicking off his campaign today.
00:03:55.160 Now, desperate for a fourth term, liberals have replaced Justin Trudeau with his economic advisor
00:04:01.100 and handpicked successor, Mark Carney.
00:04:03.460 But a liberal is a liberal is a liberal.
00:04:07.240 It's the same old liberal MPs, the same liberal ministers, the same liberal advisors, the same liberal elites,
00:04:13.540 the same broken liberal promises of the last 10 years.
00:04:16.860 We cannot afford another lost liberal decade.
00:04:21.000 We need to put Canada first for a change with a new conservative government to axe taxes, reward work,
00:04:28.500 unleash entrepreneurs, harvest our resources, make things here, build homes for our youth,
00:04:34.660 secure our borders, rebuild our military, honour our history, and raise our flag.
00:04:42.440 Generally, it's pretty good from him.
00:04:44.740 He actually made the statement before Mark Carney walked out of Rideau Hall
00:04:48.680 asking the governor general for the new election.
00:04:51.740 I think one thing that the Polioff team really needs to hone in on is,
00:04:56.920 one, the Carney weakness against Trump,
00:04:59.020 the fact that Trump thinks he's so weak and pathetic he wants a liberal to win.
00:05:02.560 And then also go over the fact that Carney and his vision for not even just Canada,
00:05:09.760 but for the world in general is of an economic planner
00:05:13.140 wanting to move numbers around on an Excel spreadsheet
00:05:16.780 and decide where he wants the growth to be,
00:05:18.840 how many jobs he wants to create,
00:05:21.340 how many, you know, if he wants oil and gas development
00:05:23.940 or he wants green boondoggles.
00:05:26.360 And basically contrast Mark Carney being the fenced-in regulator
00:05:31.180 who wants to basically tell you how to do everything,
00:05:34.780 and then contrast that with Pierre Polyev being the guy
00:05:37.740 who wants you to have the freedom to choose
00:05:39.800 how you actually end up growing your own success.
00:05:43.540 You know, you're in charge of your own life,
00:05:45.380 and I'm getting out of the way because we've had 10 years
00:05:47.640 of the liberals getting in your way
00:05:49.580 and telling you that don't worry,
00:05:51.640 I'm going to lead you to success.
00:05:53.240 And after 10 years,
00:05:54.500 our per capita incomes have grown only 0.5%,
00:05:58.720 which is not even a fraction of what the next lowest growth is in the G7.
00:06:04.860 Absolutely wild.
00:06:05.940 Actually, I believe it's OECD.
00:06:07.620 So we're like the 10th place out of those 10 countries
00:06:11.580 or however many are in the OECD.
00:06:13.160 And the next biggest country for per capita income growth is at like 3%.
00:06:17.080 And we're at like 0.5%.
00:06:18.620 It's absolutely pathetic.
00:06:21.040 And now let's jump over to Jagmeet Singh
00:06:23.520 because to be fair, I guess we should talk about him.
00:06:27.820 So this is Jagmeet Singh's pitch for why you should make him the prime minister,
00:06:32.120 even though he has no ability to win, but we'll be nice.
00:06:35.320 You deserve a prime minister.
00:06:36.740 You can trust to make decisions in your best interest,
00:06:40.360 not to advance his personal wealth.
00:06:43.880 And we know that someone who's going to be fighting in your best interest,
00:06:47.640 that's not Mark Carney.
00:06:49.460 Is this, isn't this the same guy?
00:06:51.560 And I agree with him on Mark Carney,
00:06:53.080 but isn't Jagmeet Singh also the exact same guy
00:06:56.460 who made Canadians wait so he could get his pension?
00:06:58.920 My goodness.
00:07:00.220 In it for you is just such a weak slogan as well.
00:07:03.600 He has spent his whole career serving the interests of billionaires,
00:07:09.500 of shareholders, and CEOs.
00:07:12.040 He makes decisions that benefit people like him.
00:07:15.520 He's not our guy.
00:07:16.740 Because anyone who profits off the crisis
00:07:19.140 should not be in charge of fixing it.
00:07:22.220 Man, after this election, I think we have to take bets
00:07:25.180 on whether or not the NDP is actually going to even be an official party
00:07:28.900 or they're going to sink down to only like five seats,
00:07:30.980 which is the best thing that's ever happened for the Liberals
00:07:34.240 is the sheer incompetence of Jagmeet Singh.
00:07:37.020 Here's one thing I want to highlight from Liberals
00:07:39.200 who were attacking Pierre Polyev during his press conference,
00:07:41.980 highlighting that Polyev has still not gotten his security clearance.
00:07:46.080 One, this is an utterly ridiculous question,
00:07:49.080 and I just want to highlight it for that sole reason.
00:07:52.180 And then also just that it doesn't matter.
00:07:55.280 So Mr. Polyev, Mark Ramsey of the Toronto Star,
00:07:57.860 your party was the target of foreign interference
00:08:00.660 in the last two election campaigns,
00:08:02.340 but you're going into this one without the security clearance
00:08:05.360 necessary to receive briefings on this.
00:08:08.440 When should Canadians expect you to get that security clearance?
00:08:11.680 Well, I've already had clearance.
00:08:13.660 I was a minister in cabinet already,
00:08:15.200 and the government has the ability to give me any information
00:08:17.980 they think necessary.
00:08:19.220 But what I'm not going to do is go into a process,
00:08:22.160 a politically directed process by the Liberals
00:08:25.220 that they use to decide what I can see and say and comment on.
00:08:31.640 And we know that the Liberals have made Canada
00:08:34.240 a playground to foreign interference.
00:08:38.160 They're the ones that have benefited from foreign interference.
00:08:41.200 We also call on the government to have
00:08:42.940 the foreign registry set up for this election
00:08:46.040 so that Canadians know if any foreign or hostile regimes
00:08:50.300 are intervening in our democracy
00:08:53.240 so that we can expose that and protect ourselves.
00:08:56.120 By the way, and I just want to quickly show you,
00:08:58.720 this tweet, this video was tweeted out
00:09:01.680 by somebody who isn't a Liberal activist saying,
00:09:04.420 Jason Pugh here says,
00:09:06.160 watch, Pierre Polyev admits he doesn't have the security clearance
00:09:09.020 to receive briefings on foreign interference
00:09:10.940 going into the election.
00:09:12.600 Which, if you phrase it a different way,
00:09:16.600 the Liberals will not give Pierre Polyev critical information
00:09:20.500 regarding foreign interference in an election currently going on.
00:09:25.540 And as Polyev has pointed out,
00:09:27.000 they have not implemented the Foreign Agents Registry Act
00:09:30.220 to prevent foreign agents of different governments
00:09:33.280 trying to influence the election
00:09:34.340 from having to be open about what they're doing
00:09:36.620 so then they can be shut down by the police or CESIS.
00:09:39.560 It's absolutely insane that that is an actual line
00:09:43.580 that Liberal activists think is going to work.
00:09:46.040 The idea, he still hasn't gotten his security clearance.
00:09:48.480 And the Liberals are using that as an excuse
00:09:50.580 to not crack down on foreign interference
00:09:53.140 in which it wouldn't matter
00:09:54.440 because if Polyev took the security clearance,
00:09:57.300 he wouldn't even be able to talk about anything
00:09:59.720 that's actually pertinent for him to know.
00:10:02.200 So it's a complete catch-22.
00:10:04.360 To be able to talk about it,
00:10:05.480 you have to know about it.
00:10:06.920 And to know about it, you can't talk about it.
00:10:08.800 It's stupid.
00:10:10.260 Just absolutely stupid.
00:10:12.840 Anyways, so one other thing I just want to talk about today
00:10:15.840 because not really that much is going on at the moment.
00:10:19.920 Actually, this is a good segment from the CBC.
00:10:22.520 I want to highlight them basically calling out Mark Carney
00:10:25.940 for trying to run away from his emissions cap
00:10:27.860 at the same time his own environment minister is embracing it.
00:10:30.540 And then I want to get over to the polls.
00:10:32.140 But not much is going on today
00:10:34.580 because frankly it feels like it's going to be
00:10:36.660 a sleepy election from the Liberal side of things
00:10:38.720 because they want to bore Canadians to death
00:10:41.080 and hope that in a default-feeling election
00:10:44.200 they will show up and vote for the Liberals
00:10:45.880 because Trump bad or something.
00:10:49.600 David, Carney noted to reporters
00:10:51.700 and he appeared to suggest that he's open
00:10:54.380 to moving away from the emissions cap
00:10:56.280 that the federal government has in place
00:10:57.960 on the oil and gas sector.
00:10:59.820 Except this is confusing
00:11:01.100 because his own environment minister,
00:11:02.860 the new environment minister, Terry Duguid,
00:11:04.620 he said that this emissions cap is staying in place.
00:11:08.060 So which one is it?
00:11:09.140 Smith says she's confused and she's demanding answers.
00:11:12.980 The Prime Minister's word sounded kind of nice yesterday
00:11:15.320 until I looked at my phone right after the meeting with him
00:11:18.260 and found out that his new environment minister
00:11:20.020 had just told media on the other side of the country
00:11:22.720 that the federal Liberals would be keeping the emissions cap in place.
00:11:26.060 And this has been the same story for the last 10 years.
00:11:29.220 Liberals come to Albertans, Alberta,
00:11:31.480 they smile for the cameras,
00:11:32.480 they tell everyone how much they're going to work with Alberta
00:11:34.520 and support the energy sector.
00:11:36.180 Then they go home and proceed to do everything in their power
00:11:38.940 to roadblock and scare away investment from the energy sector.
00:11:42.140 We're just asking the question of the Prime Minister,
00:11:44.440 is he prepared to lift this destructive
00:11:47.000 and unconstitutional production cap or not?
00:11:50.520 Albertans and Canadians do want the answer
00:11:52.180 before they go to the polls and not after.
00:11:54.120 In fact, we'd like to have the answer today.
00:11:57.400 She actually just completely shredded him,
00:12:00.020 the Premier of Alberta, Daniel Smith,
00:12:01.640 when Mark Carney visited to try and like,
00:12:04.600 I guess, soften up Alberta by meeting with Premier Smith,
00:12:07.740 acting like, you know, maybe I'll move
00:12:10.020 in a more moderate direction on oil and gas
00:12:12.120 and not try and kill the industry.
00:12:13.600 And she just immediately published a list
00:12:15.540 of what she was looking for in that meeting
00:12:17.740 and then just came out and said,
00:12:18.800 yeah, none of it was actually met.
00:12:20.240 He basically only had fluff to tell me, you know,
00:12:23.120 and the one thing he did commit to
00:12:24.980 on maybe getting rid of the emissions cap
00:12:26.500 is already being contradicted in ways we've seen before.
00:12:29.480 And again, this is why Mark Carney
00:12:32.460 wants the election to be so short.
00:12:34.700 He cannot keep the lie together long enough
00:12:37.420 to go for 40 or 50 days.
00:12:39.460 He needs it to be as short as possible.
00:12:41.460 And I don't think he gets away
00:12:43.120 with actually just living with this kind of
00:12:45.780 middle ground approach he's taken on all the issues
00:12:47.800 where he's been the economic planner for five years,
00:12:50.880 but he pretends now he's the free market guy.
00:12:53.260 But like all socialists or socialistic people,
00:12:55.880 they like to live as capitalists,
00:12:57.760 but then they like to subject other people
00:12:59.660 to heavy regulations, taxes, and government control.
00:13:03.740 But now let's move over into what the polls
00:13:07.340 are currently looking like.
00:13:08.840 I want to show you two charts here,
00:13:10.800 and this is from Sheree Atiste's website,
00:13:13.340 polywave.com.
00:13:14.640 I would suggest you actually use this website
00:13:16.560 if you're looking for polling information right there,
00:13:19.360 polywave.com,
00:13:20.860 because I find it's more realistic
00:13:22.860 the way that the guy's models work.
00:13:25.280 So I find that the way he displays information
00:13:27.380 is more realistic,
00:13:28.600 whereas 338 can very much often have hyperbolic numbers.
00:13:32.580 But this is what the current polling looks like
00:13:35.060 for the election.
00:13:36.820 But I'm going to get to a bit of a twist in a second here.
00:13:39.040 So right now, as of May 21st, 2025,
00:13:42.480 polywave has the average at 37.4 for the Liberals,
00:13:46.540 37 for the Conservatives,
00:13:48.700 11.8 for the NDP,
00:13:50.420 the Block 6.4,
00:13:51.680 Greens 3.2,
00:13:52.720 PPC 2.2,
00:13:53.960 and other 1.2.
00:13:55.700 I guarantee probably half the PPC voters
00:13:58.220 split towards the Conservatives,
00:13:59.940 and other I don't think really represents anything
00:14:02.620 because there's no real other parties
00:14:04.400 running in this election.
00:14:06.000 But this is only if you factor in all of the polls.
00:14:09.540 But as I've said in previous videos,
00:14:11.500 I don't really trust all the polls.
00:14:13.180 This is factoring in organizations like ECOS.
00:14:16.360 It's putting in liaison strategies,
00:14:18.020 which has been recently exposed
00:14:19.480 as having connections to Chinese CCP front groups.
00:14:23.920 And so what I can do,
00:14:25.160 and what I like about Sharia Teest's website,
00:14:27.480 is you can deselect all the pollsters
00:14:29.500 that you're not a big fan of.
00:14:31.260 And the two pollsters I found that I really like over time
00:14:34.160 are Innovative Research and Abacus Data.
00:14:36.180 Now, we don't just go off of the last poll that came out
00:14:40.580 because the last poll is just a moment in time.
00:14:43.500 You always want to take a rolling average
00:14:45.480 of some of the last polls that came out.
00:14:47.660 And right now,
00:14:48.580 although Innovative Research's last poll
00:14:50.620 showed the Liberals up by one point on the Conservatives,
00:14:53.520 the Abacus ones still show the Conservatives leading by three.
00:14:56.760 And when you average a lot of the last couple of weeks' polls together,
00:14:59.740 what we have going into this election is 38.4 Conservatives,
00:15:05.660 33.6% Liberal, NDP 13.6, Block 6.7, Green 4.2, PPC 2.4, and other 1.1.
00:15:16.840 Again, I think probably about half that PPC number will go Conservative.
00:15:20.980 And I think this is a more realistic rating that we have here for the NDP.
00:15:25.360 It feels a little bit unbelievable that we would see the NDP
00:15:30.920 fall all the way down to what some pollsters are showing them
00:15:33.880 at like 10 or 9.
00:15:36.480 Jagmeet Singh may be incompetent.
00:15:38.540 Jagmeet Singh may mess up a peanut butter sandwich.
00:15:41.760 But I think as the NDP,
00:15:43.940 it's very difficult to actually punch below 12% on Election Day
00:15:48.100 simply because there is almost a cult-like following to the NDP
00:15:51.420 where they get the first 10 points for free.
00:15:53.520 And then they can usually cobble together anywhere from 5% up to another 10%
00:15:59.000 in order to extend their seats from 7% all the way to sometimes like 35%.
00:16:04.120 And so I think they're in this kind of polling hole at the moment
00:16:08.760 because all the excitement right now on the left is around Carney.
00:16:11.760 And as more people on the left realize that he is not really in their camp
00:16:16.300 because although he actually is quite radical in policy,
00:16:18.620 he's going to present himself the other way,
00:16:19.980 many of these people are going to migrate back towards the Conservatives.
00:16:24.360 But I would say this is still effectively a dead heat.
00:16:28.060 We're going to, let's just say it's 43% or 34% Liberal
00:16:31.800 and 38% for the Conservatives.
00:16:36.000 That may have the Conservatives barely winning a majority
00:16:39.740 or winning a minority government.
00:16:42.460 So right now that technically does still favor the Liberals
00:16:45.600 if they can form a coalition with all the other parties.
00:16:48.380 Although I'm not sure after more than 10 years of Liberal rule,
00:16:51.840 the Governor General is going to let them form a coalition.
00:16:54.780 It'll probably be more like 2008 again, or I guess 2006,
00:16:59.280 where the Governor General said,
00:17:00.900 yep, Stephen Harper, you manage the government
00:17:03.180 even though you only have a small minority.
00:17:05.880 You get to figure it out
00:17:06.740 because the Liberals have been in power for like 20 years now.
00:17:09.660 You figure it out.
00:17:11.520 And so the good thing though,
00:17:13.120 is that it's a very clear election question
00:17:15.540 that's going on right now.
00:17:16.980 You want the economic planning Liberals
00:17:18.900 or do you want some amount of freedom with the Conservatives?
00:17:22.440 Even any amount of freedom is better
00:17:24.020 than what's going on with the Liberals right now.
00:17:26.240 So if the Conservatives can pull ahead
00:17:27.880 by maybe a point and a half more, 2%,
00:17:30.600 if we are to assume that this is the current standings,
00:17:34.600 they win a majority.
00:17:35.700 If they slip back by a point and a half,
00:17:38.280 they also lose.
00:17:39.180 This is what I mean when I say it's a blind heat right now.
00:17:42.360 If the Conservatives can start recovering it,
00:17:44.120 if the Liberal honeymoon starts to end
00:17:46.500 and a lot of people realize like,
00:17:48.320 I don't feel confident with Mark Carney being Prime Minister,
00:17:50.820 I think that's when the Conservatives
00:17:52.200 start to jump ahead eight or nine points.
00:17:55.140 But this stays a knife fight the entire time.
00:17:58.080 This is an election where one slip of the tongue
00:18:01.140 in the debate, one bad ad, one a good attack ad
00:18:04.940 could make the difference in like a dozen ridings
00:18:08.060 that give the government from one party to the other.
00:18:11.780 So anyways, that should be it for me today.
00:18:14.880 I'm going to be back tomorrow doing more election coverage,
00:18:18.500 covering the polls,
00:18:19.560 covering how the different parties are maneuvering.
00:18:22.080 And if you want to keep up with that, guys,
00:18:23.900 reminder, again, like the video,
00:18:25.560 subscribe to the channel, leave a comment,
00:18:27.300 do all that great stuff.
00:18:28.500 Share the program with friends if you can.
00:18:30.200 I'm trying to hit 100,000 subscribers
00:18:32.160 by mid-December of this year.
00:18:34.140 I wish the election was a little bit later
00:18:36.260 because I would have liked a little bit more lead-up time
00:18:38.360 to getting prepared for this.
00:18:40.200 But, you know, it's just how life works sometimes.
00:18:43.060 And I guess after that,
00:18:45.420 that's it for the show today.
00:18:46.620 And I'll see you guys later.