The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - September 05, 2025


Canadians think the Carney Liberals are failing in new poll!

Topics
deterioration of Liberal perception
Hosted by
Wyatt Claypool
Mentioned
Donald Trump Mark Carney Angus Reid Pierre Poilievre Laura Babcock Wyatt Nanos
Carney and Poilievre FIGHT over ending foreign worker program Liberals FALL behind Conservatives - Carney approval drops hard!

Episode Stats


Length

17 minutes

Words per minute

168.19

Word count

2,989

Sentence count

167

Harmful content

Toxicity

3

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

In this episode, I discuss the dramatic decline in support for the Liberal Party since the election, and why it's a big deal. I also discuss a new data set from Abacus that shows how the Liberals are doing relative to the priorities they had run on.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
Topics generated with Qwen2.5-3B-Instruct.
Hosts, guests, and mentioned names generated with spaCy (en_core_web_sm), reconciled against Wikidata.
00:00:00.160 Ahoy, everyone. I am back on the whiteboard again for a video because we are seeing a very big polling shift occurring in Canada right now,
00:00:10.760 with Canadians finally realizing, at least in part, that Mark Carney and the Liberals have no real way of actually achieving many of the policy goals that they had set during the election.
00:00:22.420 This is a big deal because while, yes, we are not going to have an election tomorrow in order to capitalize on the Liberals' popularity going down substantially,
00:00:33.300 it demonstrates that Canadians are paying attention and they are not going to be dazzled simply by elbows-up rhetoric forever.
00:00:41.500 Eventually, you actually need to get stuff done.
00:00:43.940 I remember when I had first said with that Abacus data poll that came out that showed that the Liberals went from leading by three to the Conservatives leading by two,
00:00:53.340 that we were going to see other pollsters start to follow suit.
00:00:57.500 People said that that was highly naive of me on social media.
00:01:01.260 It's just Abacus data, Wyatt.
00:01:03.620 Well, then we saw Innovative Research have their poll go from plus five Liberal to plus two Liberal,
00:01:11.200 and then Main Street went from plus nine Liberal to just plus two Liberal as well,
00:01:17.100 and then we will be talking about this in another video.
00:01:20.880 Angus Reid just came out with a poll that shows that the Conservatives are leading by two.
00:01:27.000 It's actually now an outlier result to show the Liberals substantially ahead.
00:01:32.500 Nanos is actually a good pollster during elections.
00:01:36.160 Post-election, Nanos goes to a cheaper way of doing polls, and you can see it right after the election had ended.
00:01:44.500 The Liberals win the popular vote by 2.23%.
00:01:47.960 Nanos had been generally getting results during the election that were akin to what the election results looked like.
00:01:54.540 They were pretty accurate.
00:01:55.940 And then after the election, like, whoop, you see the Liberals jump up 14 points,
00:02:00.960 and now they're still leading the Conservatives by double digits.
00:02:04.420 And then you get all the other polls like Spark Insight and ECOS that will tell you that the Liberals are doing super well.
00:02:10.720 But I wouldn't put much stock into those guys considering that they are frequently wrong
00:02:14.900 and not even in the ballpark of election results when they poll during elections.
00:02:20.100 But today I want to go over this abacus data set about people's scorecard
00:02:27.680 in relation to how the Liberals are doing on key priorities that they had run on.
00:02:32.520 Because the deterioration of perception that the Liberals are getting anything done
00:02:37.720 is going to start dogging them into the fall session of Parliament.
00:02:42.260 Because with so few people actually thinking the Liberals are doing a good job of moving forward on these issues,
00:02:48.040 it's going to give a lot of deserved fodder to Pierre Polyev and the Conservatives
00:02:52.780 to go after them saying,
00:02:54.480 Well, didn't you say you're going to do this?
00:02:56.000 Well, didn't you say you're going to do that?
00:02:57.620 Well, how is it working out?
00:02:59.000 But before we get into it, I do just quickly want to remind you guys that,
00:03:03.280 hey, if you like the show, make sure to leave a like on this,
00:03:06.380 subscribe if you are not yet a subscriber,
00:03:08.880 and leave a comment on what you think about the Liberals' current perception,
00:03:13.620 what you think about them,
00:03:15.140 and how you think their polling is going to change in the future.
00:03:18.820 Look, I actually kept that whole, it's not really an ad read,
00:03:21.680 I kept that little mid-intro pretty short.
00:03:24.740 But this is the specific data set I want to be talking about today.
00:03:29.460 And this is why I believe people like the whiteboard.
00:03:33.080 This is cancer to look at,
00:03:34.640 just like this giant chart of stuff that you can probably not see from wherever you're sitting.
00:03:39.020 But I want to talk about a few of these priorities,
00:03:42.420 but most particularly priority one,
00:03:45.780 this is basically being rated on how much of a priority people think it is,
00:03:49.940 how relevant it is right now,
00:03:52.180 and then the progress the government is making.
00:03:55.500 I almost think that relevance and priority should have just been mushed together.
00:03:59.060 I'm not sure why those need to be different categories.
00:04:01.800 But the first priority on this card says,
00:04:05.280 forge a new economic and security partnership with the U.S.
00:04:09.340 and expand trade with reliable global allies.
00:04:13.620 Now, this is basically saying the elbows-up promise that the liberals were making,
00:04:20.080 how relevant is that to you?
00:04:22.100 And also, how is the progress that the liberals have been making?
00:04:26.600 So, let's just put this down as P1.
00:04:30.000 This is priority number one that Abacus data pulled.
00:04:34.040 Now, the relevance was rated at 80%.
00:04:39.380 So, this is something that, if you ask Canadians,
00:04:42.380 they think it is a big issue.
00:04:44.720 I actually don't think it's as big of an issue for us to diversify or trade away from the United States.
00:04:49.760 They're a good ally.
00:04:50.840 We should be trying to make a new defense,
00:04:53.380 like we should basically be trying to change our defensive relationship with them,
00:04:57.280 but in the sense that we actually don't spend enough on defense,
00:05:00.220 and so we've been basically asking the Americans to flip the bill for us for a very long time.
00:05:05.340 But regardless, depending on how the question was asked,
00:05:08.500 80% of people said that it was a relevant priority.
00:05:13.540 Now, right now, when you ask people, when you ask Canadians,
00:05:17.840 how much progress are we making progress on this issue right now?
00:05:21.820 The amount of people who will agree with that is just 33%.
00:05:29.300 33% of Canadians think we are making progress on this big issue for the Liberals during the election.
00:05:37.900 And how much is that down since the last time Abacus data did a poll on the scorecard issues?
00:05:43.940 Well, it is, in fact, down 13%.
00:05:49.700 13% in probably just a couple of months since they last polled how people see the government's progress on this issue.
00:05:58.060 They went from 46% to 33%.
00:06:01.940 And that is, in fact, a pattern with a lot of these other issues that they were polling on.
00:06:07.880 Here's a good one.
00:06:09.520 Priority number three.
00:06:11.020 Let's just highlight some of the big ones here.
00:06:13.220 Priority number three was lower costs and help Canadians get ahead.
00:06:18.900 Now, you'll remember when we did another Abacus data poll,
00:06:22.240 60% of people put the cost of living as one of their top three issues.
00:06:27.820 It is, in fact, the most frequently chosen top issue for Canadians.
00:06:33.000 And people rate this one in terms of priority and relevance.
00:06:37.560 Specifically, priority we're going to be talking about is 91%.
00:06:43.220 91% think this is a top priority because obviously it should be.
00:06:48.360 And the amount of people who think that the liberals have been making progress, making good progress, is 26%.
00:06:59.180 And that, although it's already low, is down 6%. 0.74
00:07:05.800 That is unbelievably crappy. 0.99
00:07:10.020 That on cost of living, which is something that should be very easy to take care of if you actually give a crap, 0.99
00:07:16.760 all you need to do is lower taxes.
00:07:18.420 And on that, they're already slipping down.
00:07:20.320 Because the thing with Mark Carney as a politician is he's actually very inflexible.
00:07:26.400 He's not actually as good at business as you think he is.
00:07:29.580 Not that any of you actually thought that.
00:07:31.400 I'm just saying the general you of Canadians.
00:07:34.240 A lot of his business career is built off of just having good relationships with governments
00:07:39.500 and getting involved in industries that have a lot of government subsidies and grants attached to them.
00:07:45.380 And once you're the prime minister, you can't exactly get a grant from another government to try and basically lift yourself up.
00:07:53.040 You're now in charge and you actually need to build an efficient economy.
00:07:56.720 And he doesn't seem to really want to do that.
00:07:59.820 You know, it's all the futzing around on the issue of major projects.
00:08:05.980 After 170 days, he says, guys, I'm about to open up a major projects office.
00:08:11.840 He's like, oh, wow, our first major project is opening up a bunch of bureaucracy.
00:08:16.380 He doesn't need to do that.
00:08:17.540 Just name issues or name big major projects that have been proposed in the past
00:08:23.200 or you're maybe newly proposing, hey, if someone builds a port over here, I'll fast track that.
00:08:28.460 That's all he'd have to do.
00:08:29.520 Instead, we need a bureaucracy to tell us what we're going to do on it.
00:08:33.060 OK, here is another one.
00:08:36.720 Reduce government spending so Canadians can invest more in business and people to grow the strongest economy in the G7.
00:08:44.060 This one, this was priority number seven on this chart.
00:08:47.280 I'm just trying to go through a sampling here.
00:08:49.740 And these economic issues should also be, they're bread and butter issues for any government.
00:08:54.200 So failing on these is bad.
00:08:55.340 It is rated as a 79% priority.
00:09:00.640 And basically everything on this chart was rated very highly.
00:09:04.260 The lowest one was rated 74.
00:09:06.120 But even then, we're talking about more than two thirds of people.
00:09:09.940 On this one, the government currently is only rated at a 32%.
00:09:19.160 And I'm not going to write it any lower just because it's not going to fit in here, at least on camera.
00:09:24.820 But that is even down 3%.
00:09:27.380 Reduce government spending, despite the fact that Carney keeps making these declarations about how he wants his ministers to, you know, find savings over the next couple of years.
00:09:37.240 Make, you know, make your departments more efficient.
00:09:40.840 Get rid of the redundancies and whatnot.
00:09:43.220 And by doing that, and this is what we're going to talk about in the Angus Reid poll probably tomorrow.
00:09:48.540 Not only has he kicked off a lot of the public sector unions and a lot of people are going back to voting for the NDP.
00:09:54.400 But those who are more fiscally hawkish, who want to see the government reduce spending, and there are actually liberals who care about that sort of thing, finance guys in downtown Toronto, who despite voting liberal, maybe for more social issues, wanted to see a carny government that acted kind of more conservative, that wanted to reduce just the waste in government.
00:10:17.160 And that is not rated very highly now.
00:10:19.820 And it's going downward.
00:10:21.440 It's already gone down 3%, despite all the prognostications of Mark Carney saying that, oh, yeah, no, don't worry, we're going to find an extra $20 billion in the budget through efficiencies.
00:10:32.600 And I think they've already had, like, reports come out saying that even if Mark Carney was able to find all the efficiencies he says he is, he's only going to be saving, like, you know, a dozen, you know, $20 billion over, like, 10 years or something like that.
00:10:47.740 Or you'd only find it in that amount of time, the amount of time it would take more like attritional, like attritional firings or attritional layoffs or retirements to actually have the impact that Carney thinks they are, it's going to be years and it's not really going to be that substantial.
00:11:03.440 But now I want to move on to another poll that Abacus Data put out, specifically on the issue of basically how important the issue of Donald Trump is, if they are tired of this being, like, the main bugaboo right now of Canadian politics.
00:11:20.800 So I'm just going to pause, erase the board, and then come back to you with that to talk about.
00:11:27.800 Okay, we are back, and I'll admit that this polling result actually took me by surprise.
00:11:34.480 I thought there was going to be more staying power to talking about Donald Trump in Canada, and it turns out a lot of people just want to stop hearing about it.
00:11:43.920 So this poll result was, or this poll question was asking, are you tired of hearing about Trump when Canada's own challenges need fixing?
00:11:56.380 And they basically provide examples of housing and healthcare and the economy.
00:12:00.880 So when the economy, housing, and healthcare are right now in a crisis in Canada, do you want to stop hearing about Donald Trump's name all the time?
00:12:09.700 Now, this one is not bearing good results for the liberals at all.
00:12:15.480 Hey, look, I have more colors than I usually do for markers, so I'll do everything very, very nicely color-coded.
00:12:22.380 We're going to start off with those who actually still do think that we actually do need to be talking about Donald Trump.
00:12:30.460 So this is the Laura Babcock crowd, those who think that, no, Trump is a very relevant issue and we should be talking about him.
00:12:39.700 So, and this is in severity in terms of, I'm not tired of it at all, no, not really, and then yes, somewhat tired, and then yes, very tired.
00:12:48.180 So let's start off with not at all tired about hearing about Donald Trump.
00:12:52.560 And remember, this is something that the liberal government is still talking about all the time.
00:12:56.500 Whether it's overtly talking about it, like bringing up his name, or kind of scapegoating the idea that the Americans did say to us, and this is Trump, this is Trump's trade fight he's having against us, even though our own economy sucked before all this.
00:13:10.180 But only, only 4% of people say that they are not tired of hearing about Donald Trump.
00:13:20.180 4% of people still think that he is relevant to be talking about in the context of how bad our current problems are.
00:13:28.080 And then, once we jump down to people who are, you know, not, like, not really tired of hearing about Donald Trump, not, not at all, not at all would be like, no, I think we should be talking about him all the time.
00:13:41.380 But those who are not really tired of it yet, it is 12%.
00:13:46.820 Ooh, a big number 12.
00:13:50.360 Hopefully this one shows up pretty well.
00:13:52.540 It's a light green.
00:13:54.880 12% of people are not yet too tired of this.
00:13:58.960 Oh my goodness, it is not showing up very well.
00:14:00.940 Okay, we're gonna, we're gonna go to plan B.
00:14:03.320 There we go.
00:14:04.020 Look at that, guys.
00:14:07.080 I can adjust my mistakes.
00:14:08.540 So we got 12% of people who are, you know, not tired of it yet, but maybe it's not a big deal to be bringing up Trump for them.
00:14:15.740 And now, we can jump up to those who are tired of it.
00:14:20.940 People who are somewhat tired of hearing about Donald Trump in the context of Canada's other problems is 37%.
00:14:29.920 37%.
00:14:31.780 And notice if you have these two numbers up, there seems to be a group of people who have not yet sounded off on how annoyed they are
00:14:38.020 by it's still being brought up.
00:14:40.420 Those who are very tired of Donald Trump's name being invoked constantly in Canadian politics,
00:14:46.360 despite all of our crippling problems, is 48% of people.
00:14:53.920 So we have a total of 85% of people who want to stop hearing about Donald Trump,
00:15:01.520 because, frankly, he is not the major problem with Canada.
00:15:05.240 Only 16% think that, no, he is relevant and we should be talking about him.
00:15:12.020 This is like the entire Liberals' election plan was talk about Donald Trump and hope that people will vote for you
00:15:21.600 because you're not him, as if he's even relevant to the actual current state of Canadian politics.
00:15:28.320 This, I guarantee you, if you ask people how much they cared about Donald Trump three months ago,
00:15:35.220 this number would probably almost be reversed.
00:15:37.980 You know, I'd say it's at least half of Canadians who would think that we should be talking about him
00:15:42.100 because he's such a danger to our country and all that.
00:15:46.400 This is embarrassing.
00:15:47.720 16% of people still like the jabbering of the Liberals on the Trump issue.
00:15:53.280 And this is what shouldn't be shocking at all to see that the Conservatives have taken the lead in the Abacus data poll.
00:16:00.340 And, again, they've taken a lead in Angus Reid, in Main Street, in Innovative.
00:16:05.540 The Conservatives have caught up massively.
00:16:07.840 And it's off the back of the fact that the Liberals aren't delivering.
00:16:11.060 And, frankly, the things that they ran the last election campaign on are not going to be relevant forever.
00:16:17.180 You can't really pull the same trick twice when it comes to Donald Trump.
00:16:21.720 What, are they going to throw Mark Carney under the bus, swap him out for a new leader,
00:16:25.940 and then set their hair on fire about whoever the next Republican nominee is?
00:16:30.020 Even if they attempted that, I don't think that Canadians would let that slide next time.
00:16:35.360 While, yes, I was disappointed in people prioritizing Trump as so much of an issue as they did,
00:16:40.400 at the same time, at least I can have confidence that, yeah, you can't just bring up Trump again in a year and a half
00:16:47.060 if we have a snap election and somehow slide back into office.
00:16:50.640 It only barely worked for them this last time.
00:16:53.100 They won a minority government.
00:16:54.700 And the Conservatives, in the closest ridings, were only 8,000 votes away collectively
00:16:59.360 from being the minority government in charge.
00:17:03.360 Anyways.
00:17:04.160 But with that being said, hopefully you guys like these little polling update videos.
00:17:08.740 Tomorrow I will have an Angus Reid poll.
00:17:12.720 That one was super interesting because not only is it showing that the Liberals are hemorrhaging votes
00:17:17.860 back over to the NDP, but Mark Carney's popularity is sliding heavily.
00:17:23.480 Like, was flying on clouds a couple of months ago in the perception of a lot of people,
00:17:29.180 and he is now barely staying above having an overall negative perception.
00:17:34.120 And that's pretty hard to pull off so early into your term.
00:17:38.740 Anyways.
00:17:39.760 So, with that being said, thanks to you guys for watching.
00:17:43.000 Like, share, and subscribe.
00:17:44.200 And I will see you guys next time.