The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - Carney and the Liberals massively behind in new poll (13% CPC lead)

00:00:00.000 So many people on social media these days are lighting their hair on fire

00:00:04.900 because they see polls coming out from pollsters not doing their jobs properly,

00:00:10.600 showing that the liberals are quickly catching up with the conservatives,

00:00:14.460 and even some pollsters have the liberals ahead of the conservatives.

00:00:19.040 They're not. They're decisively not ahead.

00:00:21.820 Do you really think Mark Carney, a man with less name recognition than a typical CBC actor,

00:00:28.860 is going to be pushing the liberals into a leading position?

00:00:33.560 No. That's silly. 0.85

00:00:35.740 And today I'm going to show you a good pollsters poll that has the conservative party up 13 points.

00:00:43.380 My two favorite pollsters right now, so I would suggest that you follow them,

00:00:47.280 are Abacus Data as well as Innovation Research.

00:00:51.020 The rest of the pollsters aren't even exactly bad.

00:00:53.960 I think they're just not properly adapting to the response bias that we are seeing in Canada right now.

00:01:00.020 There's a liberal leadership race going on.

00:01:02.200 A lot of liberals went from very, very apathetic about politics with Trudeau leading the Liberal Party

00:01:07.540 to very excited, even if their options aren't even that great to be leader.

00:01:12.560 These people are taking polls at a very high degree.

00:01:15.280 And people like David Coletto at Abacus Data and those who run Innovation Research

00:01:20.280 make sure that they're not just polling a downtown Toronto Starbucks line in their Ontario sample, for example.

00:01:31.280 If you have regional numbers, even those regions, just because you have 500 people polled in British Columbia

00:01:39.140 doesn't mean that 500 people were properly scattered around the province.

00:01:43.020 I have found that David Coletto and the people running Innovation have been doing a far better job

00:01:48.000 making sure that they have a variety of types of people being polled.

00:01:53.060 But anyways, I want to take you guys through these poll results today.

00:01:57.520 Hopefully, calmer heads will prevail on the conservative side of politics

00:02:02.220 and people will stop spreading misinformation based on very bad polling anyways.

00:02:09.220 So before I get into that, guys, make sure to like this video,

00:02:12.180 subscribe to the channel, especially if you like these little polling updates

00:02:16.180 and leave a comment.

00:02:17.860 What do you think about the current state of politics?

00:02:21.580 No doubt the Liberals have caught up a little bit.

00:02:24.820 Nobody is saying that they didn't increase.

00:02:26.680 I think, in fact, they might have been under polling back in December and November

00:02:31.700 because people, again, were so like blah about Justin Trudeau leading the party.

00:02:36.960 A lot of Liberals were probably not even taking the polls anymore,

00:02:40.560 just resigning themselves that they were going to lose.

00:02:43.840 But here is Abacus Data's polling on direction in the country and world.

00:02:48.920 And as you can see, back in early February and around December and whatnot,

00:02:54.340 it was around 15 percent.

00:02:56.020 And then during the tariff crisis, it went to 13.

00:02:58.280 Now it's back to 19.

00:02:59.500 So their polls are tracking what you would assume public opinion would generally be.

00:03:05.860 But here is our first very bad polling result for the Liberals.

00:03:12.340 Again, there was no chance the Liberals were going to stay down at 11 percent

00:03:17.080 for those who want the Liberal government reelected.

00:03:20.680 But they're now only at 20.

00:03:22.940 There are only 20 percent of Canadians who truly want them reelected.

00:03:28.080 And yes, that's as well as they were doing, you know,

00:03:31.540 like that's better than they were doing two years ago.

00:03:34.920 But the last time they actually got to 20 was in August of 2023.

00:03:41.280 So, yeah, this is pretty bad here.

00:03:44.720 I'm going to take this off screen for a bit as I find other polling results in this poll

00:03:48.660 that you'll find interesting.

00:03:49.740 But overall, I think it was just obvious that the Trump effect on Canadian politics

00:03:55.200 was, one, not as powerful as some people are making out to be.

00:03:59.440 People weren't going to rally around the Liberal Party to be patriotic Canadians

00:04:03.140 to oppose Donald Trump.

00:04:05.280 It was going to be a mini shock where people may just say,

00:04:09.040 whatever government is currently in power in Canada is better because I don't like Trump.

00:04:13.980 But that wasn't going to stick around.

00:04:16.560 And here is something that proves it.

00:04:19.380 This is showing the change from just a couple of weeks ago, change from last wave.

00:04:25.840 Right now, obviously, the biggest issue in Canada is still the rise in the cost of living.

00:04:30.420 61 percent of people rate that as their biggest issue.

00:04:34.000 Second place is Donald Trump and his administration at 39 percent.

00:04:37.460 But you'll notice that that issue has already fallen by 4 percent in relevance

00:04:42.960 since they last did their poll.

00:04:45.260 And then afterwards, you get the typical ones that usually see health care,

00:04:48.980 housing affordability, the economy, immigration.

00:04:51.520 I guarantee this stuff will be eclipsing Trump as time goes on.

00:04:56.600 And even when you look down at who cares about the different issues,

00:05:00.420 Trump is an issue that is disproportionately cared about by Liberals.

00:05:04.840 Not even the NDP, just the Liberals.

00:05:08.120 And again, I don't think there are that many anti-Trump voters in Canadian politics,

00:05:12.960 especially as time goes on.

00:05:15.740 But these were the top line numbers here.

00:05:18.840 We have the Conservative Party right now at, or I think this might be a different thing.

00:05:24.140 That doesn't really matter.

00:05:25.440 But here is, I want to get the impression of Mark Carney and Chrystia Freeland.

00:05:30.940 This is what I would say is a fairly bleh poll for Mark Carney.

00:05:37.200 36 percent of people are positive on him, and only 26 percent are negative,

00:05:41.780 which means that he has a positive rating of plus 10.

00:05:45.940 The problem for him is that 24 percent are neutral and 14 percent don't know enough to say anything.

00:05:52.480 I assume most people who are neutral and don't know enough to say are pretty much the same person.

00:05:56.960 Neutral voters are probably just people who generally know who he is, and that's really it.

00:06:02.540 The problem is that his negative ratings have been going up a lot.

00:06:05.840 I don't think we need to dive into Freeland or Gould here,

00:06:08.380 because they're far less likely to win the leadership.

00:06:11.380 But this is the impression of Mark Carney.

00:06:14.040 While he has increased a bit,

00:06:17.200 the problem is that his negative ratings are keeping pace.

00:06:20.880 And, in fact, in the last two weeks here,

00:06:24.780 his negative ratings have been going up faster than his positive ratings.

00:06:29.460 I think the problem for Carney and all the people assuming that Canadians are going to,

00:06:33.500 again, rally around the Liberal Party,

00:06:35.600 because Mark Carney is a very firm hand to have on the Canadian government,

00:06:40.500 is just such a liberal wish-casting type opinion.

00:06:46.360 I don't even know how to respond to it.

00:06:48.720 Mark Carney is not a very compelling figure.

00:06:51.700 And the man is scandal-plagued.

00:06:53.860 He just had a new one yesterday.

00:06:55.540 He was lying about why Brookfield Asset Management decided to move its HQ from Calgary to New York City,

00:07:02.600 saying he had nothing to do with it,

00:07:04.280 when, in fact, it was proven that he was the one who penned the letter

00:07:07.760 telling shareholders to approve the unanimous vote of the board,

00:07:11.680 in which he was the chair of.

00:07:14.380 This is Mark Carney's big problem,

00:07:17.180 is that he's not very compelling.

00:07:19.080 He's not very charismatic.

00:07:20.480 And, by the way, the man has a scandal a minute

00:07:22.740 because he hasn't been able to shut his mouth about radical politics in the last 10 years.

00:07:27.400 And the man also has a lot of other, like, a lot of conflicts of interest

00:07:33.520 that Canadians are probably not jazzed about their prime minister having

00:07:36.980 with many different NGOs as well as, like, business relationships in China with Brookfield.

00:07:45.280 So, here is the accessible voter pool for Mark Carney and Christia Freeland.

00:07:51.240 Again, this is not fantastic for them.

00:07:53.840 Definitely will vote liberal if Carney is the leader.

00:07:56.600 He is in the light pink here, is 29%.

00:08:00.480 Might consider voting liberal, is 16%.

00:08:03.700 But the problem for Mark Carney is definitely not voting liberal, still 41%.

00:08:07.880 Don't know enough to say it's 14%.

00:08:10.080 Even if he gets all of the might votes,

00:08:13.140 he is still, like, well, he would be pretty good if he got all of them,

00:08:17.140 but he would literally need all of them to be competitive.

00:08:20.760 If he only wins about half of the might votes,

00:08:23.340 he is at, like, mid-30s, but by that point,

00:08:26.720 the Conservatives could be in the mid-40s with a 10-point lead,

00:08:30.740 and that's not going to matter what he has.

00:08:32.860 Like, in terms of general people sort of willing to vote for him,

00:08:37.440 you need them there for you.

00:08:39.520 The thing with Polyev is the people definitely voting Polyev are probably above 35%,

00:08:44.740 which means he only needs to cobble together a few extra people

00:08:48.000 to vote for him to actually be the prime minister.

00:08:51.800 But now, here are the top-line numbers.

00:08:54.920 Conservatives' accessible voter pools.

00:08:57.840 Conservatives have an accessible voter pool in Canada at 51%.

00:09:01.860 And in fact, it's good that their accessible voter pool is actually a bit lower in Quebec,

00:09:06.340 because they don't need Quebec to win.

00:09:08.260 They need places like Ontario, British Columbia,

00:09:11.920 and what's kind of funny is they actually have 31% of 2021 Liberal voters willing to vote for them,

00:09:18.160 whereas the Liberals only have 15% of 2021 or current Conservative supporters

00:09:26.100 may be willing to vote for them.

00:09:28.220 This is your accessible voter pool, the people who will consider voting for you.

00:09:32.720 Liberals, not that far behind, but they are the natural governing party,

00:09:35.880 so they are a lot of people's default number two.

00:09:39.720 We don't need to see the impressions of all the other leaders.

00:09:43.280 It doesn't really matter.

00:09:44.520 But here is the current vote share compared to February 11th.

00:09:49.340 And yes, obviously, it has tightened up a little bit for the Liberals.

00:09:53.720 It was always going to tighten up.

00:09:55.380 The Liberals were never going to be at 21% forever,

00:09:58.800 and partially it's because of the crushing incompetence of Jagmeet Singh.

00:10:02.700 He does not eat into the Liberals' vote share at all from the left.

00:10:06.400 In fact, the Liberals eat into his vote share.

00:10:09.440 And so we see the Conservatives are still at 41%.

00:10:12.740 Liberals are at 29%.

00:10:15.300 The NDP 14, Block 6, Screens 4, People's Party 3.

00:10:19.720 I also don't think that the Block is only going to be at 6%.

00:10:23.500 I think that that's a little bit of an under-poll,

00:10:26.480 but you tend to see that poll after poll.

00:10:28.560 If you poll things enough times, you will get someone a little bit too high

00:10:32.520 and someone a little bit too low.

00:10:34.300 I think the Block is probably going to come out at a 7 or 8 on Election Day

00:10:38.280 because Yves-Francois Blanchet hasn't done anything, from at least my view,

00:10:43.640 that would suggest that Quebecers were looking for a new option.

00:10:47.100 I think people are going to be voting Block,

00:10:49.200 especially knowing the Liberals are probably going to lose.

00:10:52.080 Why not vote for the Blocketic Law 1.00

00:10:53.820 and at least have your very Quebec-separatist-type nationalistic views

00:10:58.380 represented wholeheartedly in Parliament

00:11:01.200 rather than having some Metropolitan Liberals

00:11:04.100 meekly whining at the Conservatives for four years.

00:11:08.900 Anyway, so you can see the trend line here.

00:11:12.260 And again, things have come down,

00:11:13.980 but this isn't the dramatic fall-off that other pollsters are showing

00:11:17.800 where the lines are crossing and the Liberals are starting to take the lead.

00:11:21.820 Again, the news cycle just doesn't support that that's going to happen.

00:11:26.440 Nothing about the current political news cycle in Canada

00:11:30.680 says that the Liberals are making a comeback.

00:11:33.900 It says that people are more interested in potentially voting Liberal

00:11:36.840 now that they're changing stuff up.

00:11:38.700 But are they actually rocketing ahead because they did something great?

00:11:43.960 They haven't done anything good.

00:11:45.520 Is Donald Trump really going to push them forward?

00:11:47.660 No.

00:11:48.120 At the end of the day, people vote for domestic issues.

00:11:51.120 People are not going to trick themselves into voting

00:11:53.520 because Orange Man bad or something. 0.99

00:11:55.920 People are going to vote because the economy sucks

00:11:58.320 or that they like a certain program that the government is running,

00:12:02.220 but that's very few and far between in Canada right now.

00:12:05.640 Here is committed voters by region,

00:12:07.660 and this is also where I'm just going to say,

00:12:10.800 like, Abacus is doing a way better job than other pollsters.

00:12:13.940 One of the pollsters that showed the Liberals ahead

00:12:16.100 had the Liberals at 37% in Alberta.

00:12:19.320 If you think that is a realistic result for Alberta for the Liberals

00:12:23.660 where they would snap up like seven seats, you're delusional.

00:12:27.900 But the Conservatives are currently at 40% in British Columbia.

00:12:31.520 That is a 13% lead for them.

00:12:34.060 They are way ahead in Alberta, way ahead in Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

00:12:37.320 Not surprising.

00:12:38.640 And here is where the Liberals should be very concerned

00:12:41.640 and especially because of all the business Liberals they've lost.

00:12:46.400 People who are probably socially liberal,

00:12:49.260 they may be culturally liberal too,

00:12:51.680 but when the economy sucks, they're not voting Liberal.

00:12:54.560 And that's why I think in Ontario,

00:12:56.660 we're seeing the Conservatives with a 14-point lead,

00:12:59.600 which would mean that they would win an obvious majority of seats

00:13:03.040 in that province.

00:13:04.420 And this is at the point where the Liberals and NDP

00:13:07.360 are actually close enough to each other in a bunch of these provinces

00:13:10.120 that they could easily start splitting each other's votes

00:13:13.360 and the Conservatives could start winning like 37% victories

00:13:17.340 in Vancouver area ridings.

00:13:20.540 The Atlantic Canada, Conservatives still at 42.

00:13:23.500 Quebec has seen the biggest drop off.

00:13:25.740 I think we all kind of knew that was going to happen.

00:13:28.140 Conservatives in some abacus polls a little bit ago

00:13:31.280 would be at like 35% or 34.

00:13:34.920 That was never going to hold up.

00:13:36.500 They're now only at 24, but they can still make a couple seat pickups

00:13:40.500 in that province.

00:13:41.580 This is the committed voter intention for BC, Ontario, and Atlantic Canada.

00:13:47.920 The abacus data specifically puts this together

00:13:51.000 because it's the big swing provinces.

00:13:53.420 And within the swing provinces,

00:13:54.840 there is also a 13% lead for the Conservatives,

00:13:59.500 44% Conservative to 31% Liberal.

00:14:03.340 That might continue to tighten up a bit,

00:14:06.020 but the Liberals need to be like within six or seven points

00:14:09.300 in those provinces if they actually want to prevent

00:14:11.620 the Conservatives from winning a majority government.

00:14:15.460 And here we have the aged brackets. 0.87

00:14:19.180 The Conservatives are currently leading

00:14:20.660 with every single age demographic,

00:14:22.620 but their big gains have been made in the 60 and over crowd.

00:14:27.140 A lot of pensioners, a lot of people 1.00

00:14:28.980 who frankly watch too much legacy media.

00:14:32.540 They don't watch a lot of, you know,

00:14:34.120 YouTube political content like this.

00:14:36.640 And so that demographic disproportionately

00:14:38.760 is willing to react negatively to Trump

00:14:41.860 and say, well, I'm voting Liberal

00:14:43.260 because the Conservatives are somehow too much like Trump

00:14:45.720 or whatever.

00:14:47.160 Again, the Liberals are also making gains

00:14:49.240 with female voters, 0.73

00:14:50.320 but the Conservatives are still winning 39 to 30.

00:14:53.680 There's one more, but yeah.

00:14:57.560 Overall, this was just a tour through this poll.

00:15:00.920 The Conservatives are still leading.

00:15:03.120 There's nothing out there to suggest

00:15:05.500 that Mark Carney would perform well

00:15:07.400 if he becomes the leader.

00:15:09.120 If anything, Mark Carney is at his most compelling point.

00:15:13.300 He's at his most popular

00:15:14.500 because a lot of people still don't know much about him

00:15:18.360 are just filling in the void

00:15:20.480 that is Mark Carney with good sounding stuff.

00:15:22.740 People like to usually think good things

00:15:25.180 about people they don't know a lot about.

00:15:27.480 And I guarantee at some point,

00:15:29.680 his negative rating is going to eclipse

00:15:31.820 his positive rating.

00:15:33.240 A lot of scandals are going to catch up to him

00:15:35.200 and he's going to be in the same position

00:15:36.920 that Michael Ignatieff is in.

00:15:38.520 He doesn't really seem like a Canadian politician.

00:15:41.100 He's only back for opportunistic reasons.

00:15:43.760 And in fact, after five years of advising

00:15:45.980 on the economy,

00:15:47.240 he moved his own asset management company

00:15:49.660 down to the US

00:15:50.720 because he doesn't have confidence

00:15:52.520 in the economy that he was advising on.

00:15:55.580 And mark my words,

00:15:56.880 or not mark my words,

00:15:57.720 but I absolutely guarantee

00:15:59.840 that Trudeau was doing everything he was saying.

00:16:02.760 It's not like,

00:16:03.640 I'll take it under advisement.

00:16:04.960 I'll maybe salt in some of Mark's ideas with my own.

00:16:07.720 No, no, no.

00:16:08.200 The HST-GST freeze,

00:16:10.660 based on what Freeland has said,

00:16:13.040 was 100% Mark Carney's idea.

00:16:15.640 He thought that was good.

00:16:16.680 And if he thought that was good,

00:16:18.280 I don't see him being very competitive in an election.

00:16:21.760 He's going to have high in the sky, 0.97

00:16:24.160 silly ideas, 0.90

00:16:25.040 or he's going to try and play it super safe. 0.98

00:16:27.580 And Canadians will just continue not caring about him.

00:16:30.200 And a lot of people might think

00:16:31.440 he's a bit of a sleazeball.

00:16:33.540 Anyways,

00:16:34.020 so that's it for me today,

00:16:36.140 guys.

00:16:37.040 I'm about to actually go help doorknock

00:16:39.180 or hit doors for a conservative nomination candidate,

00:16:43.520 Kian Bextie's dad,

00:16:44.520 David Bextie.

00:16:45.240 If you live in the riding of Bow River,

00:16:47.420 please buy a federal conservative membership.

00:16:49.900 I think the membership date might even close

00:16:51.920 in a few hours here.

00:16:53.140 So make sure you have one

00:16:54.120 if you're in Chestermere,

00:16:55.400 Strathmore,

00:16:55.960 or any of those parts

00:16:57.920 of the Bow River federal riding.

00:17:00.420 Make sure in other ridings,

00:17:02.400 there are some great candidates

00:17:03.700 that you should also check out.

00:17:05.340 There is in Abbotsford,

00:17:07.180 South Langley,

00:17:08.220 the membership date has closed already,

00:17:10.380 but I know there's a lot of people

00:17:11.440 with memberships in that area.

00:17:13.040 If you live in Abbotsford,

00:17:14.480 South Langley,

00:17:15.140 please vote for Steve Schaefer,

00:17:16.520 number one on your ballot.

00:17:18.340 In Willowdale,

00:17:19.200 Jeff Yang is a great candidate

00:17:20.740 for the federal conservative nomination.

00:17:22.980 And if you live in Manitoba,

00:17:24.300 I believe this may be the last day

00:17:26.500 to buy a membership to vote

00:17:28.220 in the Manitoba PC leadership.

00:17:30.500 Please buy a membership

00:17:31.500 if you're in that province

00:17:32.700 and vote for Wally Daldrich.

00:17:35.120 He is a great Orthodox

00:17:36.540 across the board conservative.

00:17:38.060 And the only other guy in the race

00:17:39.620 is a massive red Tory.

00:17:42.120 Anyways, so that's it, guys.

00:17:44.260 See you later.

The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - February 27, 2025

Carney and the Liberals massively behind in new poll (13% CPC lead)

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