The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - February 27, 2025


Carney and the Liberals massively behind in new poll (13% CPC lead)


Episode Stats

Length

17 minutes

Words per Minute

170.6236

Word Count

3,028

Sentence Count

183

Misogynist Sentences

1

Hate Speech Sentences

3


Summary

In this episode of the Conservative Perspective podcast, host Ross Gerber talks about a new poll that has the Tories up 13 points on the Liberals in the polls. He also talks about the impact of the Trump effect on Canadian politics, and why he thinks it's not as bad as some think it is.


Transcript

00:00:00.000 So many people on social media these days are lighting their hair on fire
00:00:04.900 because they see polls coming out from pollsters not doing their jobs properly,
00:00:10.600 showing that the liberals are quickly catching up with the conservatives,
00:00:14.460 and even some pollsters have the liberals ahead of the conservatives.
00:00:19.040 They're not. They're decisively not ahead.
00:00:21.820 Do you really think Mark Carney, a man with less name recognition than a typical CBC actor,
00:00:28.860 is going to be pushing the liberals into a leading position?
00:00:33.560 No. That's silly.
00:00:35.740 And today I'm going to show you a good pollsters poll that has the conservative party up 13 points.
00:00:43.380 My two favorite pollsters right now, so I would suggest that you follow them,
00:00:47.280 are Abacus Data as well as Innovation Research.
00:00:51.020 The rest of the pollsters aren't even exactly bad.
00:00:53.960 I think they're just not properly adapting to the response bias that we are seeing in Canada right now.
00:01:00.020 There's a liberal leadership race going on.
00:01:02.200 A lot of liberals went from very, very apathetic about politics with Trudeau leading the Liberal Party
00:01:07.540 to very excited, even if their options aren't even that great to be leader.
00:01:12.560 These people are taking polls at a very high degree.
00:01:15.280 And people like David Coletto at Abacus Data and those who run Innovation Research
00:01:20.280 make sure that they're not just polling a downtown Toronto Starbucks line in their Ontario sample, for example.
00:01:31.280 If you have regional numbers, even those regions, just because you have 500 people polled in British Columbia
00:01:39.140 doesn't mean that 500 people were properly scattered around the province.
00:01:43.020 I have found that David Coletto and the people running Innovation have been doing a far better job
00:01:48.000 making sure that they have a variety of types of people being polled.
00:01:53.060 But anyways, I want to take you guys through these poll results today.
00:01:57.520 Hopefully, calmer heads will prevail on the conservative side of politics
00:02:02.220 and people will stop spreading misinformation based on very bad polling anyways.
00:02:09.220 So before I get into that, guys, make sure to like this video,
00:02:12.180 subscribe to the channel, especially if you like these little polling updates
00:02:16.180 and leave a comment.
00:02:17.860 What do you think about the current state of politics?
00:02:21.580 No doubt the Liberals have caught up a little bit.
00:02:24.820 Nobody is saying that they didn't increase.
00:02:26.680 I think, in fact, they might have been under polling back in December and November
00:02:31.700 because people, again, were so like blah about Justin Trudeau leading the party.
00:02:36.960 A lot of Liberals were probably not even taking the polls anymore,
00:02:40.560 just resigning themselves that they were going to lose.
00:02:43.840 But here is Abacus Data's polling on direction in the country and world.
00:02:48.920 And as you can see, back in early February and around December and whatnot,
00:02:54.340 it was around 15 percent.
00:02:56.020 And then during the tariff crisis, it went to 13.
00:02:58.280 Now it's back to 19.
00:02:59.500 So their polls are tracking what you would assume public opinion would generally be.
00:03:05.860 But here is our first very bad polling result for the Liberals.
00:03:12.340 Again, there was no chance the Liberals were going to stay down at 11 percent
00:03:17.080 for those who want the Liberal government reelected.
00:03:20.680 But they're now only at 20.
00:03:22.940 There are only 20 percent of Canadians who truly want them reelected.
00:03:28.080 And yes, that's as well as they were doing, you know,
00:03:31.540 like that's better than they were doing two years ago.
00:03:34.920 But the last time they actually got to 20 was in August of 2023.
00:03:41.280 So, yeah, this is pretty bad here.
00:03:44.720 I'm going to take this off screen for a bit as I find other polling results in this poll
00:03:48.660 that you'll find interesting.
00:03:49.740 But overall, I think it was just obvious that the Trump effect on Canadian politics
00:03:55.200 was, one, not as powerful as some people are making out to be.
00:03:59.440 People weren't going to rally around the Liberal Party to be patriotic Canadians
00:04:03.140 to oppose Donald Trump.
00:04:05.280 It was going to be a mini shock where people may just say,
00:04:09.040 whatever government is currently in power in Canada is better because I don't like Trump.
00:04:13.980 But that wasn't going to stick around.
00:04:16.560 And here is something that proves it.
00:04:19.380 This is showing the change from just a couple of weeks ago, change from last wave.
00:04:25.840 Right now, obviously, the biggest issue in Canada is still the rise in the cost of living.
00:04:30.420 61 percent of people rate that as their biggest issue.
00:04:34.000 Second place is Donald Trump and his administration at 39 percent.
00:04:37.460 But you'll notice that that issue has already fallen by 4 percent in relevance
00:04:42.960 since they last did their poll.
00:04:45.260 And then afterwards, you get the typical ones that usually see health care,
00:04:48.980 housing affordability, the economy, immigration.
00:04:51.520 I guarantee this stuff will be eclipsing Trump as time goes on.
00:04:56.600 And even when you look down at who cares about the different issues,
00:05:00.420 Trump is an issue that is disproportionately cared about by Liberals.
00:05:04.840 Not even the NDP, just the Liberals.
00:05:08.120 And again, I don't think there are that many anti-Trump voters in Canadian politics,
00:05:12.960 especially as time goes on.
00:05:15.740 But these were the top line numbers here.
00:05:18.840 We have the Conservative Party right now at, or I think this might be a different thing.
00:05:24.140 That doesn't really matter.
00:05:25.440 But here is, I want to get the impression of Mark Carney and Chrystia Freeland.
00:05:30.940 This is what I would say is a fairly bleh poll for Mark Carney.
00:05:37.200 36 percent of people are positive on him, and only 26 percent are negative,
00:05:41.780 which means that he has a positive rating of plus 10.
00:05:45.940 The problem for him is that 24 percent are neutral and 14 percent don't know enough to say anything.
00:05:52.480 I assume most people who are neutral and don't know enough to say are pretty much the same person.
00:05:56.960 Neutral voters are probably just people who generally know who he is, and that's really it.
00:06:02.540 The problem is that his negative ratings have been going up a lot.
00:06:05.840 I don't think we need to dive into Freeland or Gould here,
00:06:08.380 because they're far less likely to win the leadership.
00:06:11.380 But this is the impression of Mark Carney.
00:06:14.040 While he has increased a bit,
00:06:17.200 the problem is that his negative ratings are keeping pace.
00:06:20.880 And, in fact, in the last two weeks here,
00:06:24.780 his negative ratings have been going up faster than his positive ratings.
00:06:29.460 I think the problem for Carney and all the people assuming that Canadians are going to,
00:06:33.500 again, rally around the Liberal Party,
00:06:35.600 because Mark Carney is a very firm hand to have on the Canadian government,
00:06:40.500 is just such a liberal wish-casting type opinion.
00:06:46.360 I don't even know how to respond to it.
00:06:48.720 Mark Carney is not a very compelling figure.
00:06:51.700 And the man is scandal-plagued.
00:06:53.860 He just had a new one yesterday.
00:06:55.540 He was lying about why Brookfield Asset Management decided to move its HQ from Calgary to New York City,
00:07:02.600 saying he had nothing to do with it,
00:07:04.280 when, in fact, it was proven that he was the one who penned the letter
00:07:07.760 telling shareholders to approve the unanimous vote of the board,
00:07:11.680 in which he was the chair of.
00:07:14.380 This is Mark Carney's big problem,
00:07:17.180 is that he's not very compelling.
00:07:19.080 He's not very charismatic.
00:07:20.480 And, by the way, the man has a scandal a minute
00:07:22.740 because he hasn't been able to shut his mouth about radical politics in the last 10 years.
00:07:27.400 And the man also has a lot of other, like, a lot of conflicts of interest
00:07:33.520 that Canadians are probably not jazzed about their prime minister having
00:07:36.980 with many different NGOs as well as, like, business relationships in China with Brookfield.
00:07:45.280 So, here is the accessible voter pool for Mark Carney and Christia Freeland.
00:07:51.240 Again, this is not fantastic for them.
00:07:53.840 Definitely will vote liberal if Carney is the leader.
00:07:56.600 He is in the light pink here, is 29%.
00:08:00.480 Might consider voting liberal, is 16%.
00:08:03.700 But the problem for Mark Carney is definitely not voting liberal, still 41%.
00:08:07.880 Don't know enough to say it's 14%.
00:08:10.080 Even if he gets all of the might votes,
00:08:13.140 he is still, like, well, he would be pretty good if he got all of them,
00:08:17.140 but he would literally need all of them to be competitive.
00:08:20.760 If he only wins about half of the might votes,
00:08:23.340 he is at, like, mid-30s, but by that point,
00:08:26.720 the Conservatives could be in the mid-40s with a 10-point lead,
00:08:30.740 and that's not going to matter what he has.
00:08:32.860 Like, in terms of general people sort of willing to vote for him,
00:08:37.440 you need them there for you.
00:08:39.520 The thing with Polyev is the people definitely voting Polyev are probably above 35%,
00:08:44.740 which means he only needs to cobble together a few extra people
00:08:48.000 to vote for him to actually be the prime minister.
00:08:51.800 But now, here are the top-line numbers.
00:08:54.920 Conservatives' accessible voter pools.
00:08:57.840 Conservatives have an accessible voter pool in Canada at 51%.
00:09:01.860 And in fact, it's good that their accessible voter pool is actually a bit lower in Quebec,
00:09:06.340 because they don't need Quebec to win.
00:09:08.260 They need places like Ontario, British Columbia,
00:09:11.920 and what's kind of funny is they actually have 31% of 2021 Liberal voters willing to vote for them,
00:09:18.160 whereas the Liberals only have 15% of 2021 or current Conservative supporters
00:09:26.100 may be willing to vote for them.
00:09:28.220 This is your accessible voter pool, the people who will consider voting for you.
00:09:32.720 Liberals, not that far behind, but they are the natural governing party,
00:09:35.880 so they are a lot of people's default number two.
00:09:39.720 We don't need to see the impressions of all the other leaders.
00:09:43.280 It doesn't really matter.
00:09:44.520 But here is the current vote share compared to February 11th.
00:09:49.340 And yes, obviously, it has tightened up a little bit for the Liberals.
00:09:53.720 It was always going to tighten up.
00:09:55.380 The Liberals were never going to be at 21% forever,
00:09:58.800 and partially it's because of the crushing incompetence of Jagmeet Singh.
00:10:02.700 He does not eat into the Liberals' vote share at all from the left.
00:10:06.400 In fact, the Liberals eat into his vote share.
00:10:09.440 And so we see the Conservatives are still at 41%.
00:10:12.740 Liberals are at 29%.
00:10:15.300 The NDP 14, Block 6, Screens 4, People's Party 3.
00:10:19.720 I also don't think that the Block is only going to be at 6%.
00:10:23.500 I think that that's a little bit of an under-poll,
00:10:26.480 but you tend to see that poll after poll.
00:10:28.560 If you poll things enough times, you will get someone a little bit too high
00:10:32.520 and someone a little bit too low.
00:10:34.300 I think the Block is probably going to come out at a 7 or 8 on Election Day
00:10:38.280 because Yves-Francois Blanchet hasn't done anything, from at least my view,
00:10:43.640 that would suggest that Quebecers were looking for a new option.
00:10:47.100 I think people are going to be voting Block,
00:10:49.200 especially knowing the Liberals are probably going to lose.
00:10:52.080 Why not vote for the Blocketic Law
00:10:53.820 and at least have your very Quebec-separatist-type nationalistic views
00:10:58.380 represented wholeheartedly in Parliament
00:11:01.200 rather than having some Metropolitan Liberals
00:11:04.100 meekly whining at the Conservatives for four years.
00:11:08.900 Anyway, so you can see the trend line here.
00:11:12.260 And again, things have come down,
00:11:13.980 but this isn't the dramatic fall-off that other pollsters are showing
00:11:17.800 where the lines are crossing and the Liberals are starting to take the lead.
00:11:21.820 Again, the news cycle just doesn't support that that's going to happen.
00:11:26.440 Nothing about the current political news cycle in Canada
00:11:30.680 says that the Liberals are making a comeback.
00:11:33.900 It says that people are more interested in potentially voting Liberal
00:11:36.840 now that they're changing stuff up.
00:11:38.700 But are they actually rocketing ahead because they did something great?
00:11:43.960 They haven't done anything good.
00:11:45.520 Is Donald Trump really going to push them forward?
00:11:47.660 No.
00:11:48.120 At the end of the day, people vote for domestic issues.
00:11:51.120 People are not going to trick themselves into voting
00:11:53.520 because Orange Man bad or something.
00:11:55.920 People are going to vote because the economy sucks
00:11:58.320 or that they like a certain program that the government is running,
00:12:02.220 but that's very few and far between in Canada right now.
00:12:05.640 Here is committed voters by region,
00:12:07.660 and this is also where I'm just going to say,
00:12:10.800 like, Abacus is doing a way better job than other pollsters.
00:12:13.940 One of the pollsters that showed the Liberals ahead
00:12:16.100 had the Liberals at 37% in Alberta.
00:12:19.320 If you think that is a realistic result for Alberta for the Liberals
00:12:23.660 where they would snap up like seven seats, you're delusional.
00:12:27.900 But the Conservatives are currently at 40% in British Columbia.
00:12:31.520 That is a 13% lead for them.
00:12:34.060 They are way ahead in Alberta, way ahead in Saskatchewan and Manitoba.
00:12:37.320 Not surprising.
00:12:38.640 And here is where the Liberals should be very concerned
00:12:41.640 and especially because of all the business Liberals they've lost.
00:12:46.400 People who are probably socially liberal,
00:12:49.260 they may be culturally liberal too,
00:12:51.680 but when the economy sucks, they're not voting Liberal.
00:12:54.560 And that's why I think in Ontario,
00:12:56.660 we're seeing the Conservatives with a 14-point lead,
00:12:59.600 which would mean that they would win an obvious majority of seats
00:13:03.040 in that province.
00:13:04.420 And this is at the point where the Liberals and NDP
00:13:07.360 are actually close enough to each other in a bunch of these provinces
00:13:10.120 that they could easily start splitting each other's votes
00:13:13.360 and the Conservatives could start winning like 37% victories
00:13:17.340 in Vancouver area ridings.
00:13:20.540 The Atlantic Canada, Conservatives still at 42.
00:13:23.500 Quebec has seen the biggest drop off.
00:13:25.740 I think we all kind of knew that was going to happen.
00:13:28.140 Conservatives in some abacus polls a little bit ago
00:13:31.280 would be at like 35% or 34.
00:13:34.920 That was never going to hold up.
00:13:36.500 They're now only at 24, but they can still make a couple seat pickups
00:13:40.500 in that province.
00:13:41.580 This is the committed voter intention for BC, Ontario, and Atlantic Canada.
00:13:47.920 The abacus data specifically puts this together
00:13:51.000 because it's the big swing provinces.
00:13:53.420 And within the swing provinces,
00:13:54.840 there is also a 13% lead for the Conservatives,
00:13:59.500 44% Conservative to 31% Liberal.
00:14:03.340 That might continue to tighten up a bit,
00:14:06.020 but the Liberals need to be like within six or seven points
00:14:09.300 in those provinces if they actually want to prevent
00:14:11.620 the Conservatives from winning a majority government.
00:14:15.460 And here we have the aged brackets.
00:14:19.180 The Conservatives are currently leading
00:14:20.660 with every single age demographic,
00:14:22.620 but their big gains have been made in the 60 and over crowd.
00:14:27.140 A lot of pensioners, a lot of people
00:14:28.980 who frankly watch too much legacy media.
00:14:32.540 They don't watch a lot of, you know,
00:14:34.120 YouTube political content like this.
00:14:36.640 And so that demographic disproportionately
00:14:38.760 is willing to react negatively to Trump
00:14:41.860 and say, well, I'm voting Liberal
00:14:43.260 because the Conservatives are somehow too much like Trump
00:14:45.720 or whatever.
00:14:47.160 Again, the Liberals are also making gains
00:14:49.240 with female voters,
00:14:50.320 but the Conservatives are still winning 39 to 30.
00:14:53.680 There's one more, but yeah.
00:14:57.560 Overall, this was just a tour through this poll.
00:15:00.920 The Conservatives are still leading.
00:15:03.120 There's nothing out there to suggest
00:15:05.500 that Mark Carney would perform well
00:15:07.400 if he becomes the leader.
00:15:09.120 If anything, Mark Carney is at his most compelling point.
00:15:13.300 He's at his most popular
00:15:14.500 because a lot of people still don't know much about him
00:15:18.360 are just filling in the void
00:15:20.480 that is Mark Carney with good sounding stuff.
00:15:22.740 People like to usually think good things
00:15:25.180 about people they don't know a lot about.
00:15:27.480 And I guarantee at some point,
00:15:29.680 his negative rating is going to eclipse
00:15:31.820 his positive rating.
00:15:33.240 A lot of scandals are going to catch up to him
00:15:35.200 and he's going to be in the same position
00:15:36.920 that Michael Ignatieff is in.
00:15:38.520 He doesn't really seem like a Canadian politician.
00:15:41.100 He's only back for opportunistic reasons.
00:15:43.760 And in fact, after five years of advising
00:15:45.980 on the economy,
00:15:47.240 he moved his own asset management company
00:15:49.660 down to the US
00:15:50.720 because he doesn't have confidence
00:15:52.520 in the economy that he was advising on.
00:15:55.580 And mark my words,
00:15:56.880 or not mark my words,
00:15:57.720 but I absolutely guarantee
00:15:59.840 that Trudeau was doing everything he was saying.
00:16:02.760 It's not like,
00:16:03.640 I'll take it under advisement.
00:16:04.960 I'll maybe salt in some of Mark's ideas with my own.
00:16:07.720 No, no, no.
00:16:08.200 The HST-GST freeze,
00:16:10.660 based on what Freeland has said,
00:16:13.040 was 100% Mark Carney's idea.
00:16:15.640 He thought that was good.
00:16:16.680 And if he thought that was good,
00:16:18.280 I don't see him being very competitive in an election.
00:16:21.760 He's going to have high in the sky,
00:16:24.160 silly ideas,
00:16:25.040 or he's going to try and play it super safe.
00:16:27.580 And Canadians will just continue not caring about him.
00:16:30.200 And a lot of people might think
00:16:31.440 he's a bit of a sleazeball.
00:16:33.540 Anyways,
00:16:34.020 so that's it for me today,
00:16:36.140 guys.
00:16:37.040 I'm about to actually go help doorknock
00:16:39.180 or hit doors for a conservative nomination candidate,
00:16:43.520 Kian Bextie's dad,
00:16:44.520 David Bextie.
00:16:45.240 If you live in the riding of Bow River,
00:16:47.420 please buy a federal conservative membership.
00:16:49.900 I think the membership date might even close
00:16:51.920 in a few hours here.
00:16:53.140 So make sure you have one
00:16:54.120 if you're in Chestermere,
00:16:55.400 Strathmore,
00:16:55.960 or any of those parts
00:16:57.920 of the Bow River federal riding.
00:17:00.420 Make sure in other ridings,
00:17:02.400 there are some great candidates
00:17:03.700 that you should also check out.
00:17:05.340 There is in Abbotsford,
00:17:07.180 South Langley,
00:17:08.220 the membership date has closed already,
00:17:10.380 but I know there's a lot of people
00:17:11.440 with memberships in that area.
00:17:13.040 If you live in Abbotsford,
00:17:14.480 South Langley,
00:17:15.140 please vote for Steve Schaefer,
00:17:16.520 number one on your ballot.
00:17:18.340 In Willowdale,
00:17:19.200 Jeff Yang is a great candidate
00:17:20.740 for the federal conservative nomination.
00:17:22.980 And if you live in Manitoba,
00:17:24.300 I believe this may be the last day
00:17:26.500 to buy a membership to vote
00:17:28.220 in the Manitoba PC leadership.
00:17:30.500 Please buy a membership
00:17:31.500 if you're in that province
00:17:32.700 and vote for Wally Daldrich.
00:17:35.120 He is a great Orthodox
00:17:36.540 across the board conservative.
00:17:38.060 And the only other guy in the race
00:17:39.620 is a massive red Tory.
00:17:42.120 Anyways, so that's it, guys.
00:17:44.260 See you later.