The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - February 13, 2025


Carney bans Canadians who disagree with him from events (ft. Bryan Breguet)


Episode Stats


Length

36 minutes

Words per minute

192.79431

Word count

6,969

Sentence count

353

Harmful content

Misogyny

1

sentences flagged

Hate speech

4

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

Brian Breguet talks about being kicked out of a Mark Carney event for being a non-Carney supporter. He also talks about a recent incident at a Carney event where he was asked to leave because he wasn't a fan of the candidate.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
00:00:00.000 Hello everyone, welcome back to the Wyatt Claypool Show. What's telling me that Mark Carney is
00:00:06.520 probably not going to be a very successful Liberal Party leader has been his reaction
00:00:11.720 and his own campaign's reaction to those they disagree with. If you show up to a Mark Carney
00:00:17.860 campaign event and you just openly do not agree with many of his policy positions,
00:00:23.060 they won't let you stick around the room, maybe ask him a question or something like that.
00:00:27.460 They will escort you out. This is not something that Pierre Polyev and his campaign does and it
00:00:33.220 shows to me that there is sort of a lacking in personableness to Carney that I think is going
00:00:39.260 to end up hurting him in the long run. He's lacking confidence and to talk about this I want to bring
00:00:45.520 on Brian Breguet who has been on the receiving end of a polite escorting out of a Mark Carney event for
00:00:52.500 the crime of not being like a diehard Carney fan. So Brian, how's it going? Did you get manhandled?
00:01:01.500 What happened? All right. Yeah, no, that was a roller coaster yesterday. So Carney had an event in
00:01:08.220 North Van yesterday at 630. And I didn't, you know, I registered a long time ago for all the updates,
00:01:15.720 but I usually don't get them. But I had registered for the event and I never received a confirmation
00:01:21.100 that I was invited. So I had friends who had received the confirmation. So, you know, I went
00:01:27.380 there thinking they're not going to let me in. I'm not on the list. And sure enough, I arrived.
00:01:32.920 My friend was there already and said, yeah, you're not on the list. I checked. And other people were
00:01:37.080 not on the list and they're not being let in. So anyway, I'm like, I'm here. I might as well wait.
00:01:41.200 And so I go, I explain, I give my name to one of the volunteers and they tell me, okay, it's fine.
00:01:48.500 They give me a stamp on my hand and I go inside waiting for Carney. So I went with my friends for
00:01:54.000 about, I would say 30 minutes. And then all of a sudden there was a security guard who's there
00:02:00.120 standing in front of the room and he's looking left and right. And then he approached me and he had my
00:02:06.700 picture on his phone, like my profile picture from Twitter. And he said, Hey, is that you?
00:02:13.080 And, you know, I should have lied at this point. I should say, Oh, absolutely not. This guy is much
00:02:16.680 better looking than me. You know? So, and, uh, I said, yeah, I said, yeah, no, you need to come with
00:02:21.540 me. And we left the room and he had to make a phone call. And at that point, you know, I'm like,
00:02:28.000 I tell him, I was like, look, are you kicking me out or just wasting my time? You know, at this point,
00:02:32.000 he's like, no, no, you need, you need to talk to a manager. I'm like, okay, where? And he's like,
00:02:37.060 oh, over there. So he escorts me all the way, like the back, well, the front technically,
00:02:42.340 but nobody is there anymore. And we're waiting. There is another security guard. I don't want to
00:02:47.100 make, you know, their life difficult or anything. I wait five, 10 minutes. I ask again. I'm like,
00:02:53.600 look guys, am I just being kicked out? Or is somebody actually coming to talk to me?
00:02:58.420 It's like, no, no, no. Somebody's coming. I waited another 10 minutes. Nobody came.
00:03:04.060 I decided to leave at this point. You know, I had a friend leaving anywhere. So, uh, I wasn't,
00:03:09.740 you know, rudely escorted out. Like they didn't carry me or anything, but I mean, I just couldn't
00:03:15.200 be there. I got the feeling that the security guard had no idea what was going on. You know,
00:03:20.400 they just got a text or an order to remove this guy from the room. And that's what happened. So,
00:03:27.000 which I think is pretty pathetic, honestly.
00:03:29.720 And this has been kind of a pattern with Carney's campaign from literally his launch in Edmonton.
00:03:34.860 They've not been allowing non, not even just mainstream, but just non-friendly media sources.
00:03:40.480 And you'll have like really small fringe, uh, type organizations let in, but they're obviously
00:03:47.960 left wing, but independent media is kept out in places where they're obviously not going to
00:03:54.000 make a disruption because you end up making yourself look like an idiot. That's the thing
00:03:58.520 too. It's like, I don't really see what the benefit to Mark Carney's whole persona is by
00:04:06.260 removing people. Like, I just want to quickly play this video. This has been an ongoing thing
00:04:10.060 even recently with, uh, just random citizens who have signed up to be liberal party members
00:04:15.580 being kicked out. And yeah, you could say they ironically signed up, but like you allowed people
00:04:21.000 to ironically sign up. I don't get what the problem is. I'm a lawyer, sir. I am not going
00:04:25.740 to, you should get, give this trader a good old warm welcome. Referring to a member in good
00:04:30.820 standing as a trader, despite your, your failure to spell a lot of new words, um, is not okay.
00:04:38.220 We're challenging an ambassador, sir. And you will be, I'm asking you to leave.
00:04:42.560 I think the thing with this is that when you contrast this to pure Polyev, again, I don't
00:04:57.720 want to go back to this too much, but like as Carney, you should be basically trying to demonstrate
00:05:03.520 if I'm your advisor that you can kind of go toe to toe with pure Polyev in terms of your, you know, 1.00
00:05:10.760 strength of character and Polyev will literally allow PPC guys to debate him in his photo line.
00:05:18.200 But you have Carney who you're not even allowed to stand in the room with them. You've been to,
00:05:24.040 you know, Canada future party events. You've been to other political events for people that you don't
00:05:29.720 agree with. You're perfectly fine. I guess they don't want you like tweeting or something about the event.
00:05:35.400 Yeah. I don't know. I was quite surprised because, you know, exactly. Obviously I was
00:05:40.120 behaving correctly. I wasn't creating a scene or anything that they could just have, you know,
00:05:44.760 observed me at that time. Uh, and honestly, as soon as I was let in, I thought it, you know,
00:05:50.440 that was, that was over because, uh, I was very surprised to kick me out because it's going to create
00:05:56.760 bad press, right? I don't want to give myself too much importance there, but I'm like at this point,
00:06:00.920 that was the easy path was just let Brian in. He's going to tweet a little bit. I'm not even tweeting
00:06:06.520 that, you know, I'm not even putting their guys in a negative way. Most of the time I've said good
00:06:11.080 things about, um, Mark Carney and just, you know, let it go. You know, I'm one out of a thousand people
00:06:17.160 here. So you, you're making a bigger scene and a bigger mess by actually kicking me out. So, so that's
00:06:22.840 funny. Actually yesterday, one of the person I was with after the event, she went for a beer with the
00:06:29.400 person managing Mark Carney Twitter account. And that person was actually upset. I got kicked out.
00:06:35.720 So I'm guessing that, you know, there must be like a boomer as part of the campaign.
00:06:39.880 We said, we cannot take any chance. This guy cannot be in the room. We need to kick him out.
00:06:45.000 Are you, did you sign up to be a liberal party member to vote in the leadership?
00:06:48.680 No, I'm not a member. I signed up for the updates. I don't like signing up for,
00:06:52.200 even though it's free or, you know, I don't like sabotaging or signing up ironically for another
00:06:57.480 party. I've argued against this in the past. So I, I didn't do it myself. I should have,
00:07:02.520 at least that would have made it more difficult for them to remove me. But as we saw in the video,
00:07:06.840 even though it doesn't matter if they want to kick you out, they kick you out.
00:07:10.040 Yeah. I also didn't end up taking out a free liberal membership. Like one, they also can't argue
00:07:15.640 that, oh my goodness, all these people are signing up ironically. I'm like, yeah, you made it free.
00:07:20.600 This is the whole point of making people pay money to make it so that you're not incentivized to do it.
00:07:25.960 Either be like the Americans and you're automatically registered as an independent 0.72
00:07:30.040 Republican and Democrat. And there's really no reason to switch because it's like a drop in the
00:07:33.880 bucket or make it a fee. If you're going to have a small amount of people actually choosing your
00:07:39.240 leader, by the way, it's kind of embarrassing that they only got up to 400,000 people qualified to vote.
00:07:46.680 The conservatives with a $15 one year membership fee, which is pretty rich. If you think about it,
00:07:52.600 they ended up getting 675,000 people signed up to vote in that leadership. And that was like a true
00:07:59.960 coronation where there wasn't really any real opposition, especially after Patrick Brown was
00:08:05.480 removed because he's an actual fraudster. Like, by the way, guys, he is Mr. Ballot Box Stuffing.
00:08:11.080 But anyways, I want to get back to just I think this is demonstrating because, yeah, you're saying
00:08:17.240 that the social media guy managing it knows you and probably understands the social media landscape
00:08:23.000 of people who, you know, are really not a danger. They might jab you here and there, but they're not
00:08:28.120 really actually a threat to your campaign. But it demonstrates that so many people, at least in my
00:08:32.920 mind, that are running the Liberal Party are still from like the early 2000s, very fussy,
00:08:39.080 like, you know, make sure every hair is in place on the candidate's head. And I don't think that
00:08:43.560 really works in the current political landscape, that Mark Carney is going to be the guy who stands
00:08:48.360 up very straight, holding the microphone looking professional, and that a lot of people are going
00:08:52.120 to say, well, I like the cut of that guy's jib, make him Prime Minister. These days, and it's not just
00:08:57.320 because of Trump, but these days, because of how people consume media and engage with politics,
00:09:03.080 you got to be the person who can hang in for an hour and a half podcast and actually show yourself
00:09:08.760 to be like a substantive person, where the problem with Mark Carney and the problem with Christia
00:09:14.200 Freeland, maybe we can talk about her visit to Vancouver as well, is that it's kind of that drive
00:09:19.320 by shooting type media. We I jump on smile a little bit with Rosemary Barton on the CBC, and then we move
00:09:26.440 on to collecting checks from people at a very small donor event, and then run away to something else.
00:09:31.400 Because how many people were at the Freeland events? Like you said, like 40.
00:09:35.320 That's what I heard. And you know, the picture she posted really didn't look very good for her,
00:09:39.880 right? No, you're absolutely right. Those are people who I don't think know how to campaign
00:09:46.360 in the modern landscape. They still, you know, but to be fair, I don't know what they're trying to
00:09:51.320 achieve right now, right? We know the team behind Carney is the same as the team behind Justin Trudeau,
00:09:56.680 like literally, right? Gerald Gertz and other, they might be campaigning to just save the furniture
00:10:03.720 and just get their voters, you know, their base. And they're pretty good at this. Yesterday was a
00:10:08.200 good example of who their base was, like older white people, many of them still wearing masks,
00:10:13.720 but it's not going to allow them to win an election. And it's going to make it very difficult to have a
00:10:19.320 campaign for 30 days this way. And you know, they should learn from other parties. If you look for
00:10:24.440 instance of the BC and DP, I think they're not the best, but they're quite competent to run modern
00:10:31.960 campaign. They know how to do it. And I don't feel the federal liberals, they have the talent for this
00:10:37.400 at this point. Well, I think they've been doubling down on the exact same type of voter over and over
00:10:43.320 again. And that's where you work for elections, right? So that's what they're thinking.
00:10:49.640 Like, obviously, we're both conservatives, I run a conservative news site, you ran for the BC
00:10:53.640 conservatives in Vancouver, Langara. So we're not talking about that, like, so whenever we talk about
00:10:59.320 like what the liberals should be doing, it's from like a pure perspective of not like wishful thinking,
00:11:04.840 because we're not liberals. But like, if I was a liberal advisor, what would I be doing? And right now,
00:11:09.960 it seems like most of their polling recovery has really nothing to do with them winning suburbs that
00:11:15.560 usually were locked out for them. They're not tracking to win a majority. We are only talking
00:11:20.600 about if the conservatives win a minority or a majority, because the liberals seem to mostly just
00:11:26.280 be recovering their downtown Toronto vote and their downtown Montreal vote. They can get all of that back
00:11:32.760 and still have a massive conservative majority end up taking parliament, because this is what Mark
00:11:37.800 Carney's event looked like just to show people like it's decently impressive. That's probably
00:11:43.240 equivalent of what a pure poly of 2022 leadership event was like. To be fair, it is in Vancouver,
00:11:50.600 that is like very much home territory for the liberals. But past the big cities, whenever I've seen
00:11:58.120 Carney posting photos of suburbs or cities that are not traditionally liberal, that's when the city,
00:12:04.840 that's when the crowd sizes fall down to just 50 people or 30 people. You know, he's just at a
00:12:10.280 coffee shop or something like that before he quickly moves on. And everything about the messaging is,
00:12:16.040 again, it's kind of like the very boomer, anti-American type rhetoric about how Canada's great,
00:12:22.920 America sucks, and we need to protect Canada. And I'm not sure if that's actually going to resonate with
00:12:28.840 the growing 18 to, you know, 24 year old, more conservative voter, or the younger middle-aged
00:12:36.120 voter, because those voters have shifted hard conservative. That's where the conservatives are
00:12:39.960 getting their 25% lead sometimes. And it's their next closest competitor is the NDP, in fact.
00:12:45.720 Yeah. Now, the only thing I'm, you know, as a conservative, I would be concerned with
00:12:51.240 Carney is the first one is there is always Quebec and polls so far numbers have been pretty good for
00:12:56.920 Mark Carney in Quebec, even though his French is objectively pretty terrible. But it seems,
00:13:02.200 you know, Quebec and Quebecers really don't like Pierre Poitier overall, that that's just a different
00:13:06.440 type of politics for them. So if he was to get really high numbers in Quebec, all of a sudden,
00:13:12.520 that's a lot and a lot of seats, right? So that could be problematic. The bigger picture outside of
00:13:17.320 Quebec for me would be that now that, especially with Carney, they have their base back, as you said,
00:13:22.760 the Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver seats, they don't have to worry as much about those. When just a
00:13:29.000 month ago, they were about to fight to win Vancouver Centre, right? I think by now they're like, no,
00:13:34.280 Vancouver Centre and a lot of Vancouver seats and Toronto downtown, we're good. So now they can put
00:13:39.880 their effort and energy on the suburb. Will they be successful? They're going to need a different message.
00:13:46.280 But it's, you know, it does make it more difficult for Poitier. It would have been so easy to run an
00:13:51.560 election where the Liberals literally had to defend downtown Toronto seats. Then if they do this,
00:13:57.960 they cannot focus on the 905. But now they will be able to do that. 0.99
00:14:01.560 Yeah, I wanted to bring up this poll result that came out of Leger the other day showing that if Mark
00:14:07.240 Carney did end up becoming the leader of the Liberal Party, if he's the leader option, that he ends up
00:14:13.880 tying the Conservatives 37 to 37 with the NDP. Yeah, falling all the way down to 12 block at six,
00:14:21.160 you know, Greens five, PPC two. How realistic do you think this is to actually hold up in the long run?
00:14:27.960 Because just initially, my take was always that this feels a lot like I'm not one of these people
00:14:33.960 who goes around like polling is rigged, polling goes through cycles, there's what you would call a
00:14:38.280 response bias. And I think right now, the kind of response bias surrounding Carney is one
00:14:43.560 Trudeau's gone. So way more, way more Liberals are likely to take a poll because they're less
00:14:47.800 depressed right now. And then two, also, he's because a lot of people don't know who he is.
00:14:54.040 Yes, you are right. There are certain types of older Canadians who remember him as the
00:14:58.120 Bank of Canada governor and that, you know, has some nostalgia to it. But there's also I think that
00:15:04.440 the people who don't know him will just assume that he's generic, confident Liberal, where that's why
00:15:09.960 Freeland doesn't pull very well because you can't claim to be generic, competent Liberal because
00:15:14.200 she's too well known. Yeah. And so to go back to the poll, I mean, this one in particular seems to be
00:15:21.160 an outlier, right? What we have seen over the last few weeks is there is a clear trend. The Liberals
00:15:27.240 are climbing back up and it's mostly at the expense of the NDP, right? The NDP is collapsing,
00:15:32.520 we see it everywhere. This poll here is almost like an extrapolation or exaggeration
00:15:37.480 of recent trends where not only the Liberals are back up, but they're literally back to,
00:15:42.200 you know, ahead and higher than they've been. You know, you have to go back to 2015 to see them as
00:15:47.400 high as 30%, 37% in an election. So... And that's why the swing doesn't make sense to me,
00:15:54.120 that when you put Chrystia Freeland in, like right here, that the Liberals are down to 28 and the 0.99
00:15:59.000 Conservatives 39. Like the swing between Carney and Freeland being the Liberal leader is like quite crazy.
00:16:05.720 It's like 14 points or something like that. Yeah. Yeah. And this is, this is between two
00:16:11.080 people who are technically well known, right? I mean, Chrystia Freeland is well known. We know from
00:16:15.480 Abacus data, or, you know, the person of Canadians who know what Carney and Freeland was pretty similar,
00:16:21.160 if I remember correctly. So... Actually half, only half of Canadians who recognized
00:16:26.760 Freeland could recognize Carney. She was at like 60% and he was at like 25. Oh really? Okay. So,
00:16:32.440 so, so it is, you know, especially what we're seeing right now, both in the polls and technically,
00:16:37.800 I think they're buying engagement online. They're getting way too many likes on, on, on, on, on,
00:16:42.600 their posts for Carney is it's creating this phenomenon that it looks like a superstar. You know,
00:16:48.840 it's almost like a mini Poitiers effect where he gets those big rallies and everybody and his videos
00:16:53.800 are popular and whatnot, but that feels so fake at this point. You know, yesterday wasn't fake. There were
00:17:00.760 actually a thousand people, but it's exactly the people who were expecting. Those are not the
00:17:04.760 people who will like and share posts on Twitter. So where is this engagement coming from? Where is
00:17:09.480 all the engagement on Google trends coming from for Carney? I'm, I'm a little bit confused by this
00:17:14.680 right now. Unless it's, I think a lot of it is just that simply more stories being written about you
00:17:21.400 by the media will naturally mean that you're more likely to be searched for. Because if you're,
00:17:27.080 you know, Ruby dollar, you're going to have far less people searching for you because people don't
00:17:32.280 see coverage of you. It kind of is one of those circular sorts of, uh, you know, relationships
00:17:38.360 where the more people talk about you, the more people will search for you. And the more people
00:17:41.560 search for you, the more they're talking about you and all that sort of thing.
00:17:44.760 And you see it, right? Carney, for instance, whenever he says anything, like he, he comes out and he says,
00:17:50.600 like the mildest thing where it's like, we need to build up and he doesn't expand. And then he's
00:17:55.960 covered in all the media and we see on good trend, like literally that day, an hour later,
00:18:00.600 it goes up. So, so he's benefiting from incredibly favorable coverage in the mainstream media right
00:18:07.880 now, which is, and not to repeat the Kamala Harris comparisons too much, but I, I kind of go back to
00:18:14.680 thinking about his interview on Jon Stewart's show. And I thought that was one of those examples
00:18:20.200 of an interview that in my mind kind of proved actually the weakness of Mark Carney. It wasn't
00:18:25.960 even that bad, but the whole point was that you're seeing him at his Hollywood best because he is a
00:18:31.880 basically on the most Hollywood late night show he could possibly be on. And you always felt like
00:18:37.880 he's a bit stiff, doesn't roll with the kind of energy that Jon Stewart's trying to put out.
00:18:43.320 And I've been using that kind of as my base of reference for how is this man going to do in
00:18:48.600 a debate? Is he going to be able to roll off an attack, be kind of funny, make points. And I think
00:18:53.800 that he's going to come off more like a John Kerry and a Michael Ignatieff again. And I actually see
00:19:00.360 the big obstacle for them. If I was Carney's campaign and I'm just trying to win the leadership
00:19:06.440 and I don't care about anything past that, I would try and cancel the debate and not get into it.
00:19:10.920 Because if Ruby Dalla and Chrystia Freeland is there, I don't see Mark Carney doing very well in
00:19:18.520 terms of surviving attacks because there's going to be a lot of videos easily cut by the conservatives
00:19:25.960 on everything that Freeland and Ruby and all these other people point out about how frankly hollow a
00:19:33.480 lot of Mark Carney's achievements are or how obviously involved he's been in all the worst decisions.
00:19:38.920 Yeah. And, you know, he's a front runner. We know it. He's going to play. If he goes to a debate,
00:19:44.440 he's going to be a very defensive performance. He's going to try to take as little research as
00:19:48.600 possible. I think the bigger picture, right, really for Carney is what we have seen so far is when he's
00:19:54.680 on favorable territory, like the John Stewart show, and when he's prepared, he can be pretty decent.
00:20:02.600 But as soon as he's not fully prepared or he gets asked something he wasn't expecting, like fentanyl
00:20:08.120 the other day, then he makes a mistake because I think fundamentally his instincts are wrong for
00:20:14.360 the country and for what the electorate wants. So I'm expecting after he wins this leadership and
00:20:20.760 for if there's an election, whenever there's an election, I'm expecting his team to really protect
00:20:27.320 him a lot. I mean, you know, you're not taking questions from any media that isn't the CBC. And
00:20:32.760 even then during the campaign, you might have select those questions in advance. You will not
00:20:36.920 allow people to ask questions or anything because you need to keep the branding. You know, he's going
00:20:42.760 to make a mistake and everything is inauthentic with him if you let him be alone.
00:20:47.640 Did you ever see the the CBC exchange between Rosemary Barton and Chrystia Freeland when she
00:20:54.280 started calling him an insider or whatever? And she actually got like really defensive about how
00:20:59.640 how can you call Mark Carney an insider when you have been the Minister of Finance for this many years?
00:21:05.560 It's like, oh, my goodness. What is what's wrong with what's like what's wrong with you? Just
00:21:10.120 just wear a Carney button at this point because they just will not allow criticism of the man.
00:21:15.000 Where do you see the be like the NDP actually kind of ending up in this federal election? Because
00:21:19.720 I think that actually determines the success of the Liberals. Can they genuinely push the NDP
00:21:26.840 down to just 12% in the polls? Or is it going to be one of these things where, you know, you can push
00:21:33.640 the NDP down far enough, but it tends to be a pretty diehard party in terms of a lot of its base will only
00:21:39.800 ever vote NDP? Yeah, no, there's a limit, right? I mean, as to how much you can extract from the NDP,
00:21:45.880 you have the diehard, like literally socialist, communist guys will not switch. You have all
00:21:51.720 the people, you know, on Gaza and foreign intervention. I appreciate that. I agree with
00:21:56.280 the Liberals. And at some point, you know, the Carney campaign right now, it's almost getting those
00:22:01.960 left wing voters for free. Like they're not even, you know, when you listen to Carney,
00:22:06.360 he's not campaigning as like a diehard left wing guy. So it's almost like, I guess some people have
00:22:11.160 this idea of him or, or what he said in the past, but during the election, my feeling is he's going
00:22:16.440 to campaign, he's going to try to be at the center. And doing this will turn off quite of the, a lot of
00:22:22.120 the NDP moderates. And so the very least the NDP will remain with 12, 15%. It's going to be a massacre
00:22:28.840 in BC. It's going to be a massacre in Northern Ontario, Northern BC, but they will at least not completely
00:22:34.360 collapse. I don't think so. But my instinct has been wrong. You know, if you ask, if you had asked
00:22:39.720 me two months ago, if Carney would take so much from the NDP, I did, I don't think I would have
00:22:45.560 predicted this. I would have predicted maybe carrying a good to do this, but not Mark Carney.
00:22:50.840 And I still think there's a chance that he really isn't eating into the NDP as much as he is,
00:22:55.640 that we just have a, and the NDP is now the depressed party in the polls, because when you actually
00:23:01.320 pulled certain to vote NDP people, even 50% of them just say that Jag needs the wrong leader,
00:23:07.240 where the liberals get to feel a little more enthusiastic about how things are going,
00:23:10.680 the conservatives have been very positive for more than two years now. But then I think also
00:23:16.120 because Carney pulls like generic inoffensive liberal, then you have a lot of this NDP liberal
00:23:23.160 swing voters willing to come back liberal. As long as Carney is able to hold up this very kind
00:23:29.720 of squeaky clean neutral type of a face. And my, the one thing I, the problem I think that Carney has
00:23:36.600 is that when you're in, he's not an academic, but when you've said a lot of stuff, you sat on a lot
00:23:42.440 of panels, you've spoken at the century initiative and whatnot, the amount of actual policy skeletons in
00:23:48.600 your closet are going to be quite high. His love for central bank digital currency, his proposing of
00:23:54.200 carbon tax tariffs and stuff like that. That's going to be one of those things where
00:24:00.760 you're saying in a defensive manner, he's going to have to run a campaign purely defensive on all
00:24:05.000 those fronts and say, no, that's not me anymore. Yeah, exactly. So he's going to have to run this
00:24:09.160 campaign. And then whenever a throw ball or curve ball is thrown at him, you know, DP believes in all
00:24:16.120 those things, right? That's the real Mark Carney, right? The one who is from a carbon pricing and
00:24:20.840 all the great reset and all this stuff. So it's going to be easy to get him off his game, you know,
00:24:27.080 on topics that they haven't prepared. The one concern I really, really have is what we have
00:24:32.680 seen over the last 10 years in Canada is the left has become much better at getting united. So the left
00:24:40.280 used to be divided and used to have those die hard like socialist Marxist people who were like,
00:24:44.840 or, you know, environmentalist, who said, I'm not going to vote for the center left,
00:24:48.840 center left is just as bad as center right. But we've seen in Alberta, we've seen in BC,
00:24:53.960 that the left is now fully united. And so the green, they don't in BC, they barely steal from the from
00:24:59.800 the NDP. And in Alberta, literally, there is no more left wing party. So, and so we need to make sure
00:25:07.080 it's going to become very problematic for the right, if this, you know, coalition happens at the federal
00:25:14.360 level. So I'm hoping it doesn't, and I'm relatively confident the NDP or the federal level will not
00:25:19.560 collapse completely. But this is problematic how determined the left has been to, I know,
00:25:26.760 I don't like the center left that much, but they're still better than the right and center right. And so
00:25:32.440 we need to make sure that they keep being divided at least a little bit.
00:25:35.800 I think one thing that the Polyev can do is on and part of he's already been doing it partially right 0.96
00:25:41.160 already, is that he has to take Canadian nationalistic coded positions that the left
00:25:47.720 cannot take. And it undermines their case of being the real defenders of Canada. So like Polyev saying
00:25:54.120 that we should be building a military base in Calhoun and doing all this other actual stuff around
00:25:59.160 increasing military spending substantially and doing things around, you know, like tighter policing of the
00:26:05.000 ports and whatnot, the left will not do that. And then it undermines their case. Or if Karni tries to move
00:26:10.920 in that direction to match Polyev on the center to the center right, then he ends up pushing a bunch of
00:26:16.600 people back to the NDP because they're the type of people who literally at their conventions propose
00:26:21.560 things like defunding the Canadian military.
00:26:23.800 Yeah, no, you're absolutely right there. And with that being said, if the election is really about
00:26:30.280 Team Canada nationalism and being the captain of Team Canada, the Liberals do start with a little bit
00:26:37.080 of a built-in advantage, right? Therefore, many people, they represent Canada and Canada nationalism.
00:26:42.760 So Polyev, I think, I think has been doing pretty well recently and he has read the room relatively well,
00:26:50.600 uh, but he, that's not a natural advantage territory for him or for his party, unfortunately, that that's just
00:26:58.600 not the way it works in this country. Uh, partially because the right has not, has ceded this field for decades to
00:27:05.400 the Liberals. So we, we need to start fighting back on this one.
00:27:08.120 Well, that's, that's where I see when he brings up that he wants an immigration cap of 200,000,
00:27:14.040 250,000. I'm like, dude, make it 150,000, make it 100,000. And you would, you would agree with me
00:27:20.680 on this probably when you run for a camp, when you run for election, you don't put out what you would
00:27:26.920 say as like policies nobody could disagree with. You put out audacious policies that are going to alienate
00:27:33.640 half the room, but are going to make half the room love you. Because if you put out stuff like
00:27:38.440 Aaron O'Toole did that 80% of the room agrees with, well, you know, who cares? Because the thing is that
00:27:44.360 they probably agree even more with what the Liberals or the NDP said, or the PPC said.
00:27:49.560 So what you need to do is take a policy that your other side cannot copy. And a lot of people really
00:27:55.800 like 100,000 cap on immigration is perfectly reasonable in my mind. It's not saying a ridiculous
00:28:02.360 thing like a moratorium. A lot of people will become excited to vote for that. And your opponents
00:28:07.400 will basically step on a rake by trying to oppose you, because they will then have to argue basically
00:28:13.640 against reality about immigration not having been way too high for the past several years.
00:28:18.840 So that's where you always want to be, you know, crafting your policy to do that. It's like,
00:28:25.000 you know, in the BC election, and you've said this publicly, you don't run on a bigger deficit than
00:28:31.480 the BC NDP were willing to say. Were the BC NDP lying? Yes, but every voter is not going to notice
00:28:37.480 that they're lying about how big their deficit is going to be. You run on cuts, you become the party
00:28:42.680 of cuts because the opponent is not going to steal that position from you. And a large portion of the
00:28:49.160 province believes in cuts at this point. Plus, anyway, for the cuts, we were getting attacked
00:28:54.280 anywhere, right? I mean, so you have a large part of the electorate that truly believes we're going to,
00:28:59.160 you know, we're going to cut 4 billion in healthcare. So we get our tax, but we don't
00:29:02.840 get any of the benefits. I think a pretty good example of what you're saying about, you know,
00:29:07.320 you can run on like centrist, well-liked policies and nobody cares is the current Ontario election.
00:29:14.200 I mean, at face value, I'm pretty sure if you look at the proposal of the Ontario Liberals,
00:29:19.880 I'm pretty sure people agree with a lot of those policies, but nobody cares. Nobody cares because it's not,
00:29:25.560 it doesn't create any engagement, right? They might have been better to go bolder, like go with the UBI,
00:29:32.120 you know, do something, create some sort of engagement on day one. But when you go and say,
00:29:36.840 we're going to double, you know, disability payments and whatnot, then everybody's like,
00:29:41.560 oh yeah, that makes sense. But it's not enough to, you know, change your vote. You're still
00:29:45.800 going to vote for Doug Ford because whatever, he's the guy you like and you know what it is. So,
00:29:50.600 so yeah, during the election, you have to, for a few issues, you have to take some risk,
00:29:55.160 right? You have to go and divide. You cannot be the centrist uniter on every issue. And I think
00:30:01.720 the Liberals know this. They've known this for a while and they've become really, really good at
00:30:06.680 picking those few issues that will create the engagement and the momentum they need.
00:30:12.040 You got to give Trudeau and his team credit back in 2015. Running as the guy willing to run on
00:30:18.920 deficits is really smart because no other party in their right mind would usually do that. But
00:30:25.720 guess what? You've now monopolized probably around 30% of the vote for yourself.
00:30:30.600 Yeah, some of the other people that are voting for you, they may not like that. They'll get over it,
00:30:37.720 but you already have a big base of people and then you just need to add. You always want,
00:30:42.040 and this is my thing, I thought Blaine Higgs in New Brunswick was probably the best premier in the
00:30:47.000 country and probably the best premier that's been in the country for about like 10 to 15 years.
00:30:52.360 But he ran on a 2% HST cut as his keystone policy. Who gives a crap? The HST in like a
00:31:01.560 New Brunswick was like a combined 15%. So they're going to 13. I would have cut the HST by 3% the
00:31:09.160 previous year before the election. And then, because they already had surpluses, you could do it,
00:31:13.960 cut it by 3% and then run on a 2% across the board income tax cut. That's something that actually like
00:31:20.440 rips up the ground and makes people reconsider how they vote. But so often it's conventional,
00:31:26.360 stupid election wisdom that don't, don't rustle people's feathers, makes them comfy. I'm like,
00:31:32.360 no, no, no, you should actually be making people uncomfortable in the sense that they're actually
00:31:36.520 going to think about, okay, is that going to work or is that not going to work? You want people to
00:31:41.080 almost feel concerned about whether or not this is the right move or not, but they think about it.
00:31:47.640 Yeah. And I think especially for the people, I think it's especially the case if you're going for
00:31:52.360 people who actually want change, right? And we know people want change and we need to make sure
00:31:58.120 that, you know, as conservative, Mark Kennedy is trying really hard to get these change voters and
00:32:02.440 to represent the change. He is using the term change all the time. But so one way to represent change is
00:32:09.160 you actually go and propose things that are very different. You're not just proposing the same stuff
00:32:14.200 as the other guys. So, and I think we see too often where a lot of parties just go, you know,
00:32:19.880 Kevin Falcon's party is dead because that's what he was doing for about a year and a half.
00:32:25.080 He was proposing the same policies, but as the BC Liberal, BC United, and nobody cared.
00:32:31.720 That's the thing that frustrates me so much. You'll have so many of these examples like Kevin Falcon,
00:32:36.680 Blaine Higgs, Aaron O'Toole, who did what red Tory conventional wisdom says you should do,
00:32:43.560 and they did it to a T and it didn't work. And you will still have these campaign consultants
00:32:48.760 getting on board election campaigns and telling them what they should be doing if they really want
00:32:53.160 to win. It drives me up the wall. But to circle back to the topic that we started with, this is
00:32:58.600 another one of those things where if Carney wants to rebrand from Trudeau, he should be actually
00:33:04.040 confronting conservative critics and actually showing that he can stand up to them because
00:33:09.800 Trudeau started that way when he first became prime minister. And that was actually a good move when
00:33:14.040 he used to do those town halls where he'd have tons of people standing up and saying,
00:33:18.520 I don't like that you did this. He had stupid answers. It was, you know, he was usually not
00:33:23.320 getting the good end of it, but to a certain like liberal loyalist voter, he looked good by doing it.
00:33:29.480 Yeah.
00:33:29.960 Does Polioff look good when a PPC guy tries to ambush him with a stupid question about the WEF and
00:33:35.640 the UN and like whatever agenda 2030? No, he doesn't look usually good in those situations. It's not because
00:33:41.320 he's wrong, but when you're being accused by somebody and you have to come up with an answer
00:33:45.880 on the spot, usually you look kind of slightly befuddled and you look like you don't have
00:33:49.800 something good to say. But to your own people, you look like, wow, he's actually willing to stand up
00:33:55.240 and take this question. Whereas Carney is a typical, very kind of fussy liberal leader who we saw lose
00:34:02.760 multiple times in the early 2000s. He feels like a Paul Martin, Stefan Dion and Michael Ignatieff.
00:34:09.560 That's like kind of a, you know, a campaign product rather than a character.
00:34:15.000 Yeah, no, absolutely. Well, as I said before, though, right, I think the issue is
00:34:19.800 fundamentally, Carney is the guy he used to be, right? And so if you let him alone in a town hall,
00:34:26.760 he's pretty gonna make some mistake because he has to go against every bone in his body, right? I mean,
00:34:31.640 so you can tell he has been coached very well to talk about the carbon tax, for instance,
00:34:35.880 but there is no way he actually disliked the carbon tax. He loves it. But so now he has to go
00:34:40.280 saying, you know, they found good rational, or it's unfair, or it's perceived as being unfair.
00:34:45.400 But unless he has prepared, he's gonna make those mistakes on many other issues.
00:34:50.280 When Trudeau, I think Trudeau is at his peak, like, you know, 2012, 2015. I didn't agree with him all the
00:34:58.600 time. But at least I think his instincts were a little bit better. And he had more charisma.
00:35:03.240 But Trudeau, you have to give it to him. When he actually was on top of his game,
00:35:08.040 he was actually pretty good. And I don't see this with Mark Carney so far.
00:35:11.960 Not not on policy, obviously.
00:35:13.400 No, you're talking about marketing, because I, I used to, I still do. I just talked about
00:35:18.920 a lot in the past, and you tend to talk about less in the future. Like people should actually copy
00:35:23.560 certain things that Trudeau did in 2015, not in terms of policy, but in terms of style,
00:35:29.960 the fit and finish of the campaign, the willingness to say something controversial.
00:35:34.360 That was smart. Really smart. Anyways, that's probably a good place to end off here. Thank you,
00:35:39.560 Brian, for showing up on the show. People should go follow him on X. I'll link them down in the
00:35:44.360 description below and pinned at the top of the comments. So probably I'm going to have you back
00:35:49.800 on before the election ends up happening, just since you do end up doing a lot of polling analysis.
00:35:54.840 And I think that we'll be riding the polling roller coaster for quite a while now. But yeah,
00:35:59.400 thanks for coming on and I'll see you next time.
00:36:02.200 Thank you. That's always a pleasure to come on to your show.