00:00:00.000Of course, I can't say for certain whether or not Prime Minister Mark Carney and the liberal government are going to be able to secure a trade deal with the U.S. on August 19th, but if you watch the legacy media coverage and especially listen to liberal commentators, it sounds like they're already trying to construct a bed of excuses for Carney to fall back into when he once again fails to secure a deal.
00:00:25.060And no, they cannot use Trump as an excuse.
00:06:17.060But the thing is, we export more alcohol to the US than they export to us. Trump could put in place a 15% tariff on Okanagan wines and wines from the Niagara region, and it would be doing way more to us than us taking Kentucky bourbon off the shelves.
00:06:34.020Because guess what? There's a worldwide market for Kentucky bourbon. Whereas oftentimes, depending on where your region is, your exports of wines to different regions around the world are more limited. Kentucky bourbon can be sent anywhere in the world anytime. They can replace us easier than we can replace them. And we need to replace far more exports than they would be needing to do. It's a dumb thing to get into a fight over. It's not because I don't believe in Canada. It's because this is not the area that we have leverage.
00:07:01.960about pennsylvania those states that trump needs to win in order to secure some hope of gains or
00:07:09.700at least further uh diminishing further losses in the midterm so i think it'll be quite targeted
00:07:15.460like alcohol was um look to see some of those industries like steel and aluminum it might hike
00:07:20.620there as counter-terrorist um but i think it'll be quite surgical i don't expect that they're
00:07:24.980going to go after critical minerals and uh and energy the prime minister has been careful about
00:07:29.440that because when you play that energy card which is make no mistake our big big card it's not a
00:07:35.480card you can't just cut off energy exports you maybe could if we had enough pipelines to the
00:07:41.840coast and could export overseas easier you can't this is the problem with in iran during the war
00:07:47.780they were not able to export the oil and gas resources anymore or very effectively and what
00:07:53.300ended up happening was that they basically just had to let the oil just start flowing all over
00:07:57.760like the ground, because you can't just turn off the tap. In fact, your infrastructure that
00:08:03.800you're drilling infrastructure breaks. If you do that, if it's left off, if the flow is stopped
00:08:09.080for too long, the pressure builds up and your infrastructure breaks. There's no way of just
00:08:13.960cutting off oil and gas, unless we're just going to reduce the price to like zero bucks in Canada
00:08:19.240and just give it out for free so that people are driving all the time and using as much gas as they
00:08:23.780can, it's not really possible to do that. And it's a stupid card to play when we burn so many
00:08:30.100much easier cards to play early on in this negotiation, or Carney has just taken them
00:08:35.320off the board. We got rid of DST, streaming tax, we also got the, we gave up a concession on the
00:08:41.380Gordie Hill Bridge, we burned those, and on things like cultural policy, when it comes to things
00:08:46.780like the issue around supply management, Carney will not negotiate on those, and that's a problem.
00:08:53.700Probably there are certain sticking points with Trump that he won't give up.
00:08:57.040The problem is they have more power than us.
00:08:58.980And ergo, we maybe have to be a little bit more aggressive on what we might be willing
00:09:03.100to give up to get something in return.
00:09:04.900But instead, we're going to blame Trump for like not accepting the very small little things
00:09:19.280You play that, you only get to play it once.
00:09:21.920Scott, we know that dairy farmers are really concerned about possible changes to the supply management system. Could this impact the by-election in Quebec later this month?
00:09:32.340And by the way, it already is. Some of the new recent polls that are coming out showing the Liberals are still doing good in Quebec, those were mostly conducted before he started basically telling the Quebec industry that they might have to even slightly loosen supply management rules.
00:09:49.320he won't get rid of the whole thing but he'll like slightly loosen them on dairy and that's
00:09:53.900why you saw the block vote jump seven points and the liberal vote fall 11 points it's that
00:09:58.980it's the booze man and it's the fact that Quebec manufacturing jobs are bleeding out left and
00:10:03.380right so even though Carney's approval rating hasn't fallen in that province people are starting
00:10:07.480to vote block because they are worried about what the liberals are giving up and maybe they should
00:10:11.660give them up but this is the rock and the hard place that the liberals are in because their base
00:10:15.760is in favor of these bad taxes and subsidies.