We had been hearing for years from Justin Trudeau's Liberal government that there was no business case for shipping liquefied natural gas to Europe. Now, a few days ago, we have a clip of Mark Carney saying that there is a business case.
00:00:00.000Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here. We had been hearing for years from Justin Trudeau's liberal government that there was not a business case for shipping liquefied natural gas to Europe, even after the outbreak of war between Russia and Ukraine, when the rest of Europe was trying to get off of Russian oil and gas products.
00:00:21.020We literally had the then-Chancellor of Germany, Olaf Scholz, come to Justin Trudeau and effectively beg him to try and ship more LNG to Europe, and Justin Trudeau rejected him.
00:00:33.720Now recently, Mark Carney was going on a trip through Europe and actually got called out by a German reporter for claiming to be willing to send more resources Germany's way, including LNG, but we have not actually built the capacity to do so.
00:00:51.020Carney was called out on this and looked like a complete amateur, making a bunch of promises that didn't really mean anything, and like it being years away from him actually being able to increase LNG exportation capacity.
00:01:04.020And now in the aftermath of all this, we have the liberal energy minister now throwing Justin Trudeau under the bus, despite the fact that Mark Carney was his economic advisor for five years and has been very much on board the whole energy transition agenda.
00:01:21.120But here is this video clip of him now talking about the current business case for LNG that apparently didn't exist before Carney flip-flopped as of a few days ago.
00:01:31.360I think there was a view prior to a few years ago that the need for natural gas would be relatively minor and relatively short term.
00:01:43.840And I think what we all realize post the Ukraine, post what's happening with AI, that natural gas is going to be a transition fuel that's in greater demand in Germany and for a longer period of time.
00:02:01.860Oh, it was because of the outbreak of war between Russia and Ukraine.
00:02:05.200When Russia invaded Ukraine, then we figured out that maybe oil and gas products are needed.
00:02:10.300Well, Russia invaded Ukraine back in 2014.
00:02:15.260In 2022, they basically just extended the invasion.
00:02:19.440The idea that they only figured out this thing in the last few years is patently ridiculous.
00:02:23.780No, they were ideologically opposed to a good idea.
00:02:27.840And now that they are being absolutely reamed on so many other issues, they are having to try and moderate a little bit on this energy one.
00:02:35.520And by the way, I am happy to see them try and get anything done.
00:02:41.180And I still don't really trust that they're going to take this issue seriously enough to actually make significant progress in the next few years on trying to increase our LNG exportation capacity.
00:02:52.120Because the way that Carney has been talking is that, oh, there's projects around the corner that we're going to be approving.
00:02:57.600And then he wants to just open up the office of major projects this next week.
00:03:03.900He was announcing, we have a big major projects announcement next week.
00:03:07.820And then it turns out we are announcing that there is an office that may consider approving major projects for fast tracking in the future.
00:03:14.940But also, we're still not going to go around any indigenous consultations.
00:03:18.320And we're still going to be doing all the environmental hoop jumping that has been slowing down projects in Canada for years and making them not economically viable.
00:03:27.280In any other country, these things are highly economically viable, but not in Canada because we have terrible policy.
00:03:34.260And so I want to, I think, do we have any more with this clip?
00:03:39.720But then I want to jump over to him specifically throwing Trudeau's government under the bus, Pierre Polyev's response.
00:03:46.380And then also somebody, I believe it was an ambassador from Poland, just pointing out how obtuse it's been for Canada not to be increasing capacity since everyone would be lining up around the street in order to buy from Canada.
00:03:59.740Canada has the opportunity to be a great partner to Germany in that regard.
00:04:06.280What has changed is, as of June, Canada started shipping its first LNG shipments.
00:04:15.340We have the enviable situation of producing the lowest carbon footprint natural gas of any country in the world.
00:04:25.160It's because of the way we liquefy the natural gas.
00:04:32.880And so that's a tremendous opportunity.
00:04:35.360And that's, that isn't even necessarily true.
00:04:37.840We, it's just that it's a very efficient system.
00:04:40.140I guess there's maybe some, like, there are some, like, companies that do it with pure green energy for the process of, you know, turning it into liquefied natural gas for, you know, for exportation.
00:04:56.400But why is he sounding suddenly like a conservative?
00:04:59.780Again, I don't trust that they're actually going to be getting that much done.
00:05:02.740But it's kind of remarkable just how a bad news cycle can change the Liberals' opinion on a major issue like this.
00:05:09.020Because if a lot of other things had been going Mark Carney's way, they would just stick to a lot of liberal orthodoxy type positions.
00:05:16.280But here is this article from the Calgary Herald that reads,
00:05:20.080Carney has opened the door to Canada LNG exports.
00:05:23.200One closed by Trudeau government says a liberal natural resources minister.
00:05:26.960So down here, it says, it's a quote from him.
00:07:23.300If a company proposes a project to us, we might say yes.
00:07:26.080So here is Peer Polly of responding to the recent flip-flop on energy policy that the Mark Carney liberal government has been going through.
00:07:38.480Well, I'm glad that Mr. Carney has noticed my proposal from three years ago to develop the port of Churchill,
00:07:44.880which I proposed back in the spring of 2022.
00:07:49.320But what I find incredible is that he has been in power for 170 days.
00:07:55.980And not only is there not a single shovel in the ground on any of these projects,
00:07:59.900there's not even firm proposals for these projects.
00:08:07.780The Germans built from concept to completion an entire LNG import terminal in 194 days.
00:08:15.320That's about how long Mark Carney has been prime minister.
00:08:19.600And he still doesn't even know what projects he wants to build or how he's going to build them or which companies are going to do the building.
00:08:27.300So what I think you're going to see from Mr. Carney is more big promises without any action.
00:08:33.500It's more liberal show business rather than getting it done.
00:08:39.160And I would say don't confuse activity with achievement.
00:08:44.120I wouldn't even call what the liberals are doing activity.
00:09:00.960What he is pointing out is that, again, a serious government who would want to get something built
00:09:06.480could have at least made some vague statement about what they would like to achieve.
00:09:11.620But, again, their big announcement was that they're opening an office of major projects that will take a good look at these things if you get all these other things already lined up.
00:09:21.800So if a private business, a private company, is willing to quarterback this all the way, get everyone on site, the government might say yes.
00:09:31.620And it's like, okay, well, that's why there's no business case in Canada.
00:09:35.500And it's not because the government should be involved and we need more government support.
00:09:39.420I am not a big fan of government subsidies.
00:09:42.480What I need is for the government not to complicate the process so much that the free market can't properly work.
00:09:48.260That's always the obnoxious thing about people saying there's no business case, as if the free market has somehow failed.
00:09:55.440The government is failing the free market by constantly meddling and not letting it function and then just basically executing projects on the spot and saying, no, there's no business case because we said so, basically.
00:10:06.860We have made all of the bars you have to cross so high that nobody could possibly cross them and then we act like this is just a failure of the free market when we have other jurisdictions doing the projects that we say there's no business case for in more difficult places to make those projects succeed.
00:10:28.160It's absolutely ridiculous, but I'll get back to Polly here.
00:10:30.920Karni has been frantically jetting around the world doing photo ops and signing phony declarations that are unenforceable and have no money attached to them.
00:10:40.620But in 170 days, he doesn't have a single project underway while $60 billion of investment, Canadian money, has fled our country, mostly to the United States, impoverishing our people and enriching foreign workers.
00:10:58.440Yeah, we have a lot of capital flight leaving Canada right now because it's just not a good bet for investments.
00:11:04.780It doesn't mean that you can't make a go of it.
00:11:06.580You can't have a highly successful business in Canada.
00:11:09.520But the world market is naturally competitive.
00:11:12.820And unless you're going to make your corporate tax rates and regulations and ability to get permits for things like major projects, making that easier, naturally people will go where it's easier.
00:11:22.660Even if the literal environment is more difficult to work with, places where the oil and gas industry is tougher to make work.
00:11:30.520It's like, you know, on the low end, it's like Saudi Arabia and Qatar are the easiest places on the planet to be a profitable oil and gas company.
00:11:37.060Stick a straw on the ground and you're in business.
00:11:39.440Places like Iran, places like Venezuela, even Texas are tougher to work with than the Canadian oil and gas industry.
00:11:47.360Canada is actually a pretty easy one to work with.
00:11:49.520But we constantly are complicated just from how bad the government policy is.
00:11:55.440And so who would want to bet on this one because of all those regulations, regulatory hurdles holding you back?
00:12:03.080But then I want to jump over to the liberals trying to celebrate all of those meaningless declarations because, again, they have nothing to market right now.
00:13:11.700I don't want to talk too much just about what the Conservative Party is doing and strategy.
00:13:16.620But I genuinely do think it's been a very good shift that while Poliev is on the attack, as he should be in opposition, it's more of that, you know, steal my ideas kind of tongue-in-cheek, you know, you guys suck at your jobs.
00:13:31.720I think that is actually going to be paying Poliev big dividends because while I think it's overwrought, you do get the complaints that, oh, he was too negative.
00:13:40.780He was too dour in the lead up to the election.
00:13:43.900He's, you know, he needs to be more positive.
00:13:46.060And while that can sometimes be a childish criticism, you know, if it takes a slight tweak in your tone, it takes a slight tweak in the delivery to silence those criticisms, it could be worth it as long as it's not watering down the message.
00:13:58.260And I don't think that's what's going on here.
00:14:00.760One more post I wanted to read from Poliev, and then I want to jump over to the Liberal Party.
00:14:05.500But Poliev, quote, tweeting this story from the National Post saying Canada currently has only one operational LNG export facility, but it's on the West Coast.
00:14:15.380Which is not great if we want to actually export to Europe.
00:14:19.760And so Poliev says 18 LNG export terminals have been built between the Americas and Australians in nine years, while liberal anti-energy laws force us to sell to the Americans at a discount and block projects that would get our product to Tidewater.
00:14:34.940And then he keeps going on about the things that need to be repealed, all the anti-pipeline laws.
00:14:41.580And this is a great issue for the Conservatives to be messaging on, because even as the Liberals are trying to sound, frankly, more conservative on the issue, people rightfully don't trust them.
00:14:52.200So I'm just jumping over to the Liberal Party now to see what they're talking about today.
00:14:58.120Well, it's not unsurprisingly, it was the thing I was mentioning before.
00:15:02.120They are trying to give themselves a big pat on the back for these supposed big accomplishments to the right here.
00:15:09.940So what they're trying to celebrate here is this that says, Carney delivers message of solidarity in Ukraine on its Independence Day.
00:15:18.640OK, that's like, what was he going to do?
00:15:22.860Tell them, like, give up, you know, you suck.
00:16:48.180He got called out by a German reporter for fibbing, for effectively promising things that he cannot deliver.
00:16:53.700And CTV News then says Canada commits to extending NATO mission in Latvia for three years.
00:17:01.760Do you know how many troops we have stationed in Latvia?
00:17:05.160And I heard that we were, like, the first country to send troops into Latvia to kind of, like, gird up defenses in case Russia tried to invade Latvia.
00:17:12.380Although that was going to be pretty, pretty slim chances.
00:17:15.760Russia actually has a pretty basket case military that's not very efficient.
00:17:20.360And so they're having a hard time with a NATO-armed Ukraine who has far less troops but, you know, obviously gets to sit back in defensive positions.
00:17:38.380It means that we send Canadian troops to a base in Latvia.
00:17:42.400These troops that would have been in Canada if we didn't send them to Latvia, which costs us a little bit more money for them to be stationed there.
00:17:49.000I'm not sure if Latvia subsidizes them.
00:18:51.380But it's been pathetic that after 10 years of this government being in power, we're going to have to give these guys credit for, like, finally getting something done that any Western country could get done within months.
00:19:04.760Again, as Polly have pointed out, Germany was able to build a new port with LNG capacity in 194 days.
00:19:13.280And we haven't been able to get one done in hundreds and hundreds and hundreds, thousands of days.