The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - Carney Fumbles - Liberals Lead gets CUT IN HALF in New Polls!

00:00:00.000 Ahoy everyone, Wyatt Claypool here, back again for some more polling time on the whiteboard.

00:00:06.260 Today we're going to go over some interesting numbers coming out of liaison strategies

00:00:10.780 that shows Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberals have had their lead cut in half

00:00:15.820 from what it was just a couple of months ago. Liaison is a pollster that actually has more

00:00:21.700 left-leaning samples, so if they show the gap narrowing significantly between the Liberals

00:00:26.980 and Conservatives, it probably is happening. So what we're going to do is show what the numbers

00:00:32.560 were a couple of months ago, then we're going to jump forward to what they are today, and then I

00:00:37.440 want to show you what the British Columbia regional numbers are, because we have a competitive by

00:00:42.560 election coming up in British Columbia in the riding of North Vancouver Capilano that the

00:00:47.760 Conservatives could flip from a Liberal seat to a Conservative seat. But before we get into the

00:00:52.920 numbers, the first thing I want to do is thank all the viewers who ended up showing up and helping

00:00:57.600 Doorknock for Stephen Curran in the riding of North Vancouver Capilano. They reached out to me

00:01:03.260 to mention that many people who watched the channel showed up to help them out. Thank you

00:01:07.780 guys for actually showing up. That's fantastic, and it really does make a difference, especially

00:01:12.480 in a by-election. If you live in the riding of North Vancouver Capilano, make sure that you

00:01:17.160 register for a lawn sign. I'll have a link pinned at the top of the comments, and if you just

00:01:21.620 generally live in the area, at least show up and do one day of volunteer work for Stephen Curran

00:01:27.600 in by-elections. Hustle really matters. And of course, the normal plugs, if you like the show,

00:01:33.080 like the video, subscribe if you're not yet a subscriber, and hit the join button if you want

00:01:37.080 to become a monthly contributor to the channel and allow me to be less reliant on the very annoying

00:01:41.940 YouTube algorithm. But now, without further ado, let's get on to the liaison strategy numbers,

00:01:48.820 and we will first start off with where things were at just a couple of months ago in mid-May.

00:01:55.320 Back in mid-May, they had the Liberals leading pretty massively over the Conservatives

00:02:01.120 with 43% of the vote for the Mark Carney Liberals. 0.86

00:02:07.060 This was the numbers that a lot of people were citing to basically say the Conservatives are screwed,

00:02:12.080 they can never win again, look at these massive leads coming out of Nanos and coming out of Liaison.

00:02:17.160 And now liaison is a far more conservative friendly pollster in what numbers they're putting up. That doesn't mean that they became friendly to the conservatives and they want to give them good numbers. It's just saying that basically the numbers they're putting out now tend to be more favorable to the idea that the conservatives are coming back.

00:02:35.880 So the Liberals before were leading the Conservatives by 43 to 31, with the NDP having come up quite a bit from where they were at last election, with 11% of the vote.

00:02:50.000 That would be them recapturing a lot of territory.

00:02:52.820 The Bloc Québécois basically sitting stagnant at 6%, although you can't really blame them.

00:02:58.020 They're only polling in one province.

00:03:00.320 And then the Green Party of Canada was sitting at 2%.

00:03:04.180 The PPC, I will note in this poll, was at 3%, although usually that tends to just be some

00:03:12.160 dissatisfied conservatives who most likely will be jumping back over to the conservatives in

00:03:18.340 a federal election. And I think the poll we're about to get to probably demonstrates that

00:03:22.860 Polyev is reconsolidating the right vote, while the liberals are not only losing a couple points

00:03:28.100 to the conservatives, but they're continuing to lose points to the NDP. The funny thing about

00:03:33.240 the pipeline announcement is although I think it's politically good for Mark Carney in most

00:03:38.780 parts of the country, in strategic areas that the Liberals need to run up the score in in order to

00:03:44.220 win a federal election, it's actually not very popular to be pushing a pipeline. Now, I don't

00:03:49.600 actually think Carney has his heart in it. If he did, the timeline on the project wouldn't be like

00:03:55.040 10 years. I believe Alberta Premier Daniel Smith is fully sincere about wanting to build a pipeline.

00:04:00.560 This is like the story of her life since she was a little girl. When you asked her what she wanted to do when she grew up, she says, I want to build a lot of pipelines. Mark Carney is like the opposite of that. And so I think what he's doing is he wants to be, as I always say, Mr. Pipeline while never actually having to build a pipeline.

00:04:16.620 The problem is, is that that would be a good strategy if you were like a conservative prime minister.

00:04:22.940 Let's say you're a conservative who doesn't actually like pipelines, but you want to be popular, you would announce a bunch of pipelines.

00:04:29.040 The problem is, if you're a liberal, being pro-pipeline might not actually do all that much for you.

00:04:34.980 But let's sum up what this liaison poll from back on May 17th was saying.

00:04:39.260 So this is a plus 12% result for the federal Liberals. A 31% national popular vote total for

00:04:49.840 the Conservatives would be putting the Liberals into like the 220 seat range. That it would be

00:04:56.000 a massive win for the Liberals. NDP here getting 11% of the vote here, that would be a 5% increase

00:05:03.540 from the previous election. The Bloc Québécois would be stagnant and the Greens would pretty

00:05:09.540 much be stagnant. This would, in fact, be a negative 10 point drop if you were the conservatives in

00:05:15.780 this liaison poll, if this is actually what you ended up getting in the next federal election.

00:05:21.000 But now I'm going to clear away the board and you'll see what the new liaison numbers show

00:05:25.280 the federal, like, you know, the national picture of where politics is at in the country looks like.

00:05:30.040 So just a second, I'll pause the video, clean up the whiteboard, and then we'll be back with the new numbers.

00:05:37.760 Ah, the magic of video editing. We are back.

00:05:40.920 And now we will get into the new liaison strategy numbers.

00:05:44.560 We'll just go quickly in order as we always do.

00:05:47.560 So the Liberals in this new mid-July poll shows that the Liberals are currently sitting at 41% of the vote.

00:05:55.840 Still, of course, a robust voting percentage for one of the top two parties in Canada, but since mid-May, that is a 2% drop.

00:06:05.320 Now, the Conservatives have come up by quite a bit, not punching into the 40s yet, but definitely up from where they previously were,

00:06:13.300 now sitting at 35% of the vote, four points higher than the mid-May poll.

00:06:19.620 The NDP have also risen by a few points, hitting at around 14% in the polls. The Bloc Québécois still sitting at 6%. The Green Party also sitting at just 2%. And as I was predicting, the PPC then jumps down to just being 1% of the vote.

00:06:42.500 Their vote is very volatile these days because it's more of an attitudinal thing to say that

00:06:47.260 you're voting for rather than a real party these days. I'm not trying to naysay them, but

00:06:51.600 the PPC stopped being a real party quite a while ago, in my opinion. I could have probably made

00:06:57.520 the bar charts here a little bit bigger. But as you will notice, previously, the lead for the

00:07:03.360 Liberals was 12% of the vote. And right now the Liberal lead is only plus six, a 50% drop. And

00:07:12.880 this is a 4% increase for the Conservatives, a 2% decrease for the Liberals, and for the NDP,

00:07:22.920 they've also increased by 3% of the vote. Now this really complicates things, not just because

00:07:29.960 the Conservatives are starting to steal votes from the Liberals, but because the NDP are starting to

00:07:35.020 take votes from the Liberals, that may make some places that were considered very safe for the

00:07:39.580 Liberals far more competitive, like the riding of North Vancouver Capilano, which we will be

00:07:45.040 talking more about in just a second here. Now, if you actually look at the underlying stats from

00:07:51.440 this poll, which I'll bring up on screen just for the interest of it all, we're not going to write

00:07:55.060 them down. But in this new poll, we now have a very, we have a much, we have like the liberal,

00:08:03.640 the conservatives retaking the leads with, or getting very close to retaking the leads with

00:08:08.900 younger voters and sort of more upper middle age voters. But what remains still the biggest

00:08:15.280 sticking point for the conservative party is that 65 plus voters when polled, and it really does

00:08:22.160 line up with what demographics the liberals were turning up during elections, the liberals are

00:08:27.040 doing very, very well with 65 plus voters. And what frustrates me about this is there are a lot

00:08:34.500 of conservative strategists or advisors who are naysaying this new initiative being put forward

00:08:41.600 by Anna Roberts wanting to start a conservative boomer caucus. Now, I don't, you know, maybe I

00:08:50.020 think the imagistics of this can be a little bit cheesy. A lot of people are naysaying this because

00:08:54.840 it's frankly popular at the moment with some younger conservatives to say, oh my goodness,

00:09:00.400 boomers all vote liberal, so the conservative party should be doubling down on Zoomer and

00:09:04.680 millennial voters. Screw the boomers. We don't like boomers. They vote for the liberals. 1.00

00:09:10.080 Guys, countrymen, people, if a lot of people over the age of 65, boomer generation people and silent

00:09:18.560 generation voters are voting liberal, why would you not try and target those voters? We do well

00:09:25.780 with young people. Let's figure out how to do better with older people, which the Conservative 0.97

00:09:29.740 Party used to be better at during the mid-2000s. Now, the Liberal Party has always been, on a

00:09:36.560 demography level, been the older party. The NDP is the young left-wing party, and the Liberals are

00:09:41.740 the older left-wing party. Oddly enough, the Conservatives have always occupied the space of

00:09:46.400 middle-aged voters. The average conservative voter is like a 42-year-old man who works in

00:09:52.460 finance or who works in some sort of trades job. And the liberals have always been a little bit

00:09:59.060 more of a pensioner party, specifically pensioners on the East Coast, the Maritimes, and the West

00:10:04.760 Coast. Now, if you're in that age bracket and you're watching this show, obviously you are one

00:10:09.640 of the 30% voting conservative, but you'd have to admit if you talk to a lot of people around your

00:10:14.760 age range, a lot of them are kind of default liberals. Just as in my age bracket, if you're

00:10:21.900 around a university district, there are a lot of NDP people, although they're not nearly as

00:10:28.260 popular as they used to be just six years ago or so before Jagmeet Singh completely tanked that

00:10:34.180 party. So I absolutely endorse Anna Roberts and the conservatives wanting to figure out strategies

00:10:40.200 for reaching out to those voters that they lost last time. In fact, I'm going to sound like a

00:10:45.160 broken record, but I think some tax reforms would actually be quite popular. Making a lot of pensions

00:10:51.180 tax exempt would be good because really people aren't paying much on their pension income

00:10:55.860 anyways. So what's the point of even collecting on it? That's a good idea to run on. People are

00:11:02.020 going to say, oh my goodness, entitlement. They want to have their entitlements be tax-free.

00:11:06.180 You want to win another election or not? We can argue economics and social responsibility with

00:11:11.760 people forever, but how about we win the next election by sacrificing what is probably a decimal

00:11:17.680 point of the federal tax revenues? Anyways, so in just a second here, I'm also going to clear this

00:11:24.040 up off the board, and then we're going to jump into what the numbers are looking like in British

00:11:28.400 Columbia in the new liaison poll and what the changes were since last time. Once again, movie

00:11:35.920 magic, we are back to talk about the BC sample. Now, this is going to be very encouraging for

00:11:43.180 Mr. Stephen Curran running in the riding of North Vancouver Capilano, as these numbers are getting

00:11:48.820 very, very close in a province that if the Liberals want to win in the next election,

00:11:55.040 they need to hold on to. Now, the Conservatives are still behind, but considering what the

00:12:01.560 numbers used to be like, this ain't too bad for the conservatives. They're not going to complain

00:12:06.380 a lot about this. So right now in British Columbia, we can ax the BQ out of this. Maybe 1.00

00:12:12.940 should I, should I for fun add the PPC in? Should we be doing that for fun? Eh, okay guys, we're

00:12:20.480 going to do it. We're going to make Maxine Bernier happy and I'm going to add the PPC

00:12:23.780 into this poll e e c although they basically only get like a dozen votes and in by elections these

00:12:33.280 days i'll even pull out the purple pen for them so i'm not even going to put them in the light

00:12:37.660 bloc quebecois blue we will give them a respectable purple for this one so right now the liaison

00:12:44.340 subsample for british columbia which you can take with a slight grain of salt considering that it's

00:12:50.740 usually a smaller sample and the margin of error could be off, but we've seen many of their

00:12:55.640 subsamples from BC come week after week, and they've been lining up with this trend that

00:13:01.160 things are narrowing, and the NDP has risen a lot over the past few months. Now, they're a little

00:13:06.140 down in this poll, but that doesn't change the fact that since from maybe three or four months

00:13:11.020 ago, NDP is at mid-teens like they were in the last federal election, but now they're around the

00:13:17.820 low 20s. So in their subsample, the Liberals are still leading, but they're leading currently

00:13:24.460 with 38% of the vote. Conservatives then have, like the national average between all the

00:13:34.780 provinces, they're sitting at a respectable 35% of the vote. And as I alluded to before,

00:13:45.340 The NDP are in the low 20s, sitting with 23% of the vote.

00:13:53.980 The PPC and the NDP are both around just 1%, although I do believe when it comes to election

00:14:01.900 time, the Greens are probably going to punch more like 2% to 4%, depending on how many ridings they

00:14:08.460 seriously target in the province. It's just what the Greens are like. They tend to stick all of

00:14:13.580 of their eggs in one basket. And that has led to some minor successes over the years with them

00:14:18.600 winning between one and three, one and four seats. They just tightened to find an area where

00:14:24.160 maybe, you know, 30, 40% of people would even be somewhat open to voting green. They stick like

00:14:30.760 a hundred thousand dollars in that riding and they door knock that thing until the doors are

00:14:35.720 falling off their hinges. As much as I don't like the politics of Elizabeth May, you can always 1.00

00:14:40.820 appreciate that she is a good campaigner. She knows how to market a kind of oddball party 0.99

00:14:47.020 and get people on board for them. So right here, though, I want to show you what the changes were

00:14:52.220 since the last time a liaison poll was done for the area. So this was from last week only. The

00:14:59.140 Liberals are down by 1%. The Conservatives are up by 1%, meaning it's a 2% swing between the top

00:15:08.640 two parties there. And the NDP have fallen by 2%, which means that they have been up previously at

00:15:18.840 around 25. I've even seen them at 26 before. Now, the good thing about this, even though last

00:15:26.160 election, the Conservatives and Liberals were borderline tied when it came to the BC regional

00:15:31.900 numbers, I believe it was like 41% conservative and like 41.8% liberal, even though you would

00:15:40.620 say, well, they lost North Vancouver Capilano by a fairly wide margin. Why would this be good for

00:15:46.940 them? Shouldn't this mean that they're going to lose even harder than they did before? Not exactly,

00:15:52.020 because North Vancouver Capilano's safe liberal designation relies heavily on the NDP not doing

00:15:58.760 well. And this is, in fact, 10 points higher than the NDP were at since the last federal election

00:16:06.420 in BC. They only got 13% of the vote in British Columbia last federal election, and that still

00:16:12.980 resulted in them netting three seats in the province, to my knowledge. There might have

00:16:17.040 been a fourth one as well. I think they got like one or two in Manitoba. They had one Nunavut,

00:16:23.620 and then that one went away when Laurie Idlow crossed the floor, and then there might be one

00:16:27.760 elsewhere that I'm forgetting about. Yeah, they had their one in Montreal. But if they get 23%

00:16:32.600 in the province of British Columbia, this is them winning an extra seat or two back on the island.

00:16:38.200 This is them winning another seat or two back in the lower mainland. And at the very least,

00:16:42.240 they're going to start polling the way they did. And they're going to start punching at the

00:16:47.340 percentage they were at in 2021 and in 2019's federal elections in North Vancouver, Capilano.

00:16:54.800 In 2025, they only hit 4% in North Vancouver Capilano. Previously, they hit like 18 and 21% of the vote in that riding. And in this last federal election, Jonathan Wilkinson, who was the incumbent since 2015, got around 57% of the vote. Stephen Curran got about 33-36% of the vote.

00:17:16.960 It's not a number you can't respect from Stephen Curry. It's a pretty robust percentage of the vote if the NDP had not collapsed, because typically Jonathan Wilkinson punched around 40% of the vote, 42%, but then skyrocketed when Jagmeet Singh's federal NDP decided to take a massive dirt nap during the last federal election, which included Jagmeet Singh losing his own seat in Burnaby from how little confidence people still had in him.

00:17:45.860 I even want to just quickly go back and check what the NDP's vote total was provincially in BC in 2021. So I'm looking at the Wikipedia page now that has all the regional results. So they had exactly 13% last time.

00:18:01.040 um now I want to quickly see what the results by province were okay so in British Columbia

00:18:08.820 in 2021 the NDP ended up getting uh 29 percent of the vote uh which you got to feel bad for them

00:18:18.220 uh I don't know they actually did pretty well in the seat so they almost won like a third of all

00:18:22.080 the seats and that was them winning 29 percent of the vote now they're at 23 here they've previously

00:18:27.960 been as high as 25, 26 percent. But that means in North Vancouver, Capilano, probably mid-teens

00:18:34.220 they could end up punching at. And with Mark Carney, as I've been mentioning before, running

00:18:39.160 on a pipeline, we'll end up spurring those more left-wing anti-oil voters to leave the liberal

00:18:44.720 camp and go and vote for whoever the NDP candidate is. In fact, it behooves Avi Lewis. I'm a

00:18:50.860 conservative. Obviously, I'm endorsing Stephen Curran. I don't want anyone but the conservatives

00:18:55.520 to win this riding if I could choose, but it would behoove Avi Lewis. If I was his advisor,

00:19:00.980 I would say, hey, dude, we got 4% of the vote this last federal election. If you want to prove

00:19:07.000 that you're the leader to actually have the NDP rebound in the next federal election and win back

00:19:12.780 a bunch of its seats, you got to absolutely press the flesh in this riding, hit as many doors as

00:19:18.280 you can, and turn that 4% into at least 12. You want to show that you're back. And if you're the

00:19:24.640 federal conservatives, what you got to do in this writing is more than really marketing to new

00:19:29.780 voters. You want to go back to the people who definitely voted for you last election and turn

00:19:34.660 like 80% of those people out. Make sure as many people turn out that voted for you last election

00:19:40.100 in this by-election, and it is potentially winnable. Another thing that is making this

00:19:46.280 writing more winnable than it would have been before is that the liberals are picking not a

00:19:52.240 great candidate, it's in fact going to be quite easy to run against them with the people in the

00:19:57.480 area. It is a very entrepreneurial, free market riding, although many people tend to vote left

00:20:03.320 because you're so rich, you can vote for kind of luxury beliefs in a lot of ways. The liberals have

00:20:08.200 decided to run a guy who has not lived in the province of British Columbia in like over a

00:20:13.540 decade. And his last gig in British Columbia was working for, I believe, like Gregor Robertson when

00:20:20.280 who's still the mayor of Vancouver, which isn't a great resume point. Their candidate is Brayden

00:20:25.120 Cayley, who was a deputy chief of staff to Mark Carney until he just resigned recently to seek

00:20:31.720 this Liberal Party nomination for North Vancouver Capilano. The guy is a lifelong basically

00:20:38.460 campaigning bureaucrat. One, he is a massive carpetbagger too. His last credits in British 0.99

00:20:45.240 Columbia are working for people that many people probably don't like and which they have an

00:20:50.100 association with the current condo bailout. So I would say if I'm a conservative and I'm going out

00:20:56.340 door knocking in that riding, if anything gets brought up about the liberal campaign,

00:21:01.580 I would point out this whole thing really smells like Mark Carney is rewarding a liberal insider

00:21:07.260 with a seat in parliament. They don't care about representing you one bit. They could care less

00:21:13.800 about that. They are paying off a liberal campaigner by just letting him have a seat in

00:21:19.500 parliament this is the type of thing that used to happen in canada in like the 1880s this is what

00:21:25.460 happened in like pocket boroughs in the united kingdom back in like the 1800s where you'd have

00:21:31.660 some sort of riding that was only representing a geographic area because back in the day

00:21:36.300 uh they would have ridings that would only have you know maybe a few hundred people in it because

00:21:40.920 it was like a very rich part of the countryside where everyone owned massive estates and they

00:21:45.520 would give it to some sort of like insider friend or or sort of like royal sort of royal relative

00:21:51.320 or whatever and they would only need to like it'll need to be like 200 votes to actually get

00:21:57.180 into parliament and they could just sit in that seat they're effectively trying to turn this 0.96

00:22:01.640 riding in british columbia into some stupid pocket borough to give to liberal insiders to reward them 0.98

00:22:07.880 for their service not because they've done good things for the constituents in fact this guy's 0.99

00:22:12.480 probably done a lot of things that hurt the constituents working for the liberals for so long

00:22:16.660 but i guess you are going to get the privilege if you live in this riding to send some random

00:22:21.800 insider uh nepo pick into the into parliament because mark carney and justin trudeau he worked 0.97

00:22:28.440 with them long enough that i guess he deserves this that's really it it's just kind of pathetic

00:22:33.560 that parliament is basically just being used for power games for mark carney they're putting in a 0.62

00:22:38.760 loyalist that they probably owe a lot of favors to. Same thing with the floor crossings and with

00:22:45.280 the Senate appointments. Mark Carney really doesn't care about who the MPs are. He got caught

00:22:50.800 on the hot mic with the Prime Minister of Croatia, where he vocalized, he literally vocalized that

00:22:57.180 MPs are good for votes, and that's pretty much it. Anyways, so with all this being said, if you live

00:23:04.100 a North Vancouver Capilano, please get a lawn sign for Mr. Stephen Curran. If you live anywhere

00:23:09.000 close to the North Vancouver Capilano area, do one day of door knocking, one day of phone calling,

00:23:14.640 just put some stickers on some envelopes if you got to. It really helps. Hustle helps in

00:23:20.100 by-elections. So often, by-election turnouts are like 25%, 30%. The federal election turnout

00:23:28.600 in this riding last time was like 68%.

00:23:31.320 It was generally around the average, around 68, 70%.

00:23:34.480 If only like half of the people who voted last time

00:23:39.380 show up this time, but you can make sure

00:23:41.340 most of the conservatives who showed up last time

00:23:43.560 show up this time, it's absolutely winnable. 0.76

00:23:46.400 And there's going to be a lot of ticked off green lefties

00:23:48.740 who are going to go vote NDP and Green Party

00:23:50.580 in this federal election.

00:23:52.540 There's going to be a lot of people ticked off 1.00

00:23:53.960 about the liberal carpetbagger thing. 1.00

00:23:56.020 Stephen Curran ran last time. 0.99

00:23:57.620 You'd have good name recognition this time. It is actually winnable. And even if the conservatives don't win, putting in the effort into every by-election should be the standard. I hate conservative politics. And it's not even conservative politics. It's every party. So this isn't to blame Polyev or any other party's campaign teams.

00:24:18.780 by-elections come up and they don't try if it's considered a safe seat for the other side you

00:24:24.400 should always try hard in by-elections you just got to declare victory for a smaller goal sometimes

00:24:30.260 yes you'll never win that downtown toronto riding but dang it you tried really hard in the by-election

00:24:35.020 and guess what our vote total went up by six percent from what it was before we still lost

00:24:39.980 by 14 points but guess what we chipped away at that 20 margin they used to have alief should

00:24:46.080 be getting in here, rolling up his sleeves, and declaring victory for at least moving the ball

00:24:50.480 forward. Winning against Mark Carney in the long run federally is not going to be like Justin

00:24:56.940 Trudeau, where suddenly he just, you know, where he suddenly breaks, falls apart in 2020-23, and

00:25:04.320 then the Conservatives are just routing them from the field. The Liberals under Carney are going to

00:25:10.380 be an attritional opponent to beat. You're going to have to chip away at them every single day,

00:25:16.080 with good policy, good campaigning, really big ideas to run on, constantly doing town halls and

00:25:23.180 rallies and meeting with people from the smallest of towns and ridings you don't already currently

00:25:27.820 hold. That's what it takes. And North Vancouver, Capilano, and some of these other by-elections

00:25:32.460 coming up are great opportunities for Polyev to just demonstrate that he has the hustle,

00:25:38.780 he has the work ethic to manage Canada better than Mark Carney does. Anyways, with all that being

00:25:44.920 said, thank you guys for watching. Make sure to like, share, subscribe, consider hitting the join

00:25:49.500 button and becoming a member of the channel. And of course, click the link pinned at the top of the

00:25:53.460 comments if you want to go out volunteer for or do or get a lawn sign for Stephen Curran in North

00:25:59.000 Vancouver, Capilano. See you guys later.

The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - July 13, 2026

Carney Fumbles - Liberals Lead gets CUT IN HALF in New Polls!

Episode Stats

Summary

Transcript