Carney has embarrassingly LOW-turnout for local campaign launch!
Episode Stats
Words per Minute
192.91183
Summary
Wyatt Clunock takes a look at how many people showed up to Mark Carney's campaign office launch in his riding of Nepean, and why it doesn't bode well for the Liberals in the upcoming election.
Transcript
00:00:03.100
I've got to say that despite some polls showing the Liberals leading the Conservatives,
00:00:08.400
although the polls I follow still show the Conservatives leading,
00:00:14.280
Because when you actually look at the Liberals' campaign,
00:00:17.780
it seems like most of their support is just soft support.
00:00:21.340
Those telling pollsters I'm going to be voting Liberal
00:00:23.840
are maybe just a coin toss likelihood of actually showing up and doing so.
00:00:30.540
Mark Carney and the Liberals can still win this election.
00:00:33.740
Never underestimate the incompetence of the Conservative Party in running campaigns.
00:00:38.800
But my goodness, Mark Carney is the technical Prime Minister of this country.
00:00:46.040
so you assume there's going to be a lot of excitement around him.
00:00:49.120
He did a local campaign office launch for himself in his riding of Nepean,
00:00:53.760
which he stole from former Liberal MP Chandra Aria.
00:01:01.520
This is the photo of trying to show everyone who was able to attend.
00:01:05.280
What you'll notice right away is there are two boom mics.
00:01:08.340
So at the very least, there are two camera teams in this room.
00:01:16.720
I could see this room having as little as 25 actual people
00:01:23.200
maybe sign up to be a volunteer after sizing him up.
00:01:27.740
If Pierre Pauly launched his office in Carleton like a traditional candidate,
00:01:32.260
I really doubt he even did an office launch because he's so busy.
00:01:36.980
that thing would be wall-to-wall packed with people.
00:01:41.780
because of all the people spilling out onto the roads
00:01:55.120
The photos coming out of it, too, are horrific.
00:02:00.800
who will launch their campaigns either against Carney
00:02:17.480
And these individuals are having far bigger campaign launches
00:02:21.820
And I doubt that they're getting their numbers padded by CPC HQ
00:02:31.100
are interested in coming and watching Mark Carney speak.
00:02:33.840
I'm going to get into all this in just a second.
00:02:39.640
if you've been liking my Canadian federal election coverage.
00:02:42.420
Subscribe to the channel if you're not yet a subscriber.
00:02:55.200
Do you think being able to fill up these events matters
00:03:02.840
But this is something the Liberal Party actually posted.
00:03:05.680
And by the way, this is a journalist posted this
00:03:09.460
So there's another person who wasn't an actual attendee.
00:03:12.620
So this is what the Liberal Party posted out of this event.
00:03:15.520
Mark Carney is ready to stand up for the people of Nepean.
00:03:18.560
Well, I think Chandra Aria was actually ready to stand up for him.
00:03:25.020
Photos like this just remind me so much of Joe Biden.
00:03:28.960
That Mark Carney's grabbing this random supporter's shoulder,
00:03:31.620
like in this really weird, like old man fashion
00:03:39.860
but he just needs the corner of this man's shoulder.
00:03:44.180
Like he's just sitting here looking like he's like,
00:03:51.220
like Joe Biden would say when he walks up to people.
00:04:00.420
because there's not actually anyone really there to see him.
00:04:08.620
And he's not going to campaign his own riding at all.
00:04:15.440
And he was posting this photo from when Emily Brown in Burlington
00:04:19.000
running against Karina Gould launched her campaign.
00:04:25.460
And other than a couple of people who are guests,
00:04:29.220
there's Dan McTeague, the former liberal energy minister,
00:04:33.020
And then there's people from like Northern Perspectives there to assist,
00:04:37.760
This is a room of like real supporters, like real volunteers,
00:04:41.660
people who are wanting to donate to Emily, hit some doors,
00:04:48.880
other than maybe a handful of people are going to actually do work.
00:04:51.920
But Emily Brown is able to pack a room wall to wall.
00:04:57.520
because this is just actually a reply that Aiden McKay had made to the photo
00:05:05.780
Matt Strauss, I believe, is the candidate for Kitchener South.
00:05:11.140
And he posted a side-by-side image to make sure,
00:05:18.140
Mark Carney and I both had our office grand openings today.
00:05:22.760
Thank you, Kitchener South, for all the support.
00:05:31.860
But remember, where are the boom mics in either Matt Strauss' announcement
00:05:38.780
They're not there because these are not events that the media is attending, really.
00:05:42.380
Maybe there's one print journalist who comes and takes a photo
00:05:48.560
Mark Carney's, again, in his local writing that he is running to be elected in,
00:05:54.040
in which it is not a done deal he's even going to be elected in Nepean.
00:06:00.360
where all these other individuals are bringing in well over 60 to like 100.
00:06:14.060
Barbara Ball announced that she was running against him.
00:06:19.540
And even just the shot of the room, you can tell there's more people than even Carney's event.
00:06:23.960
Again, no big boom mics, no massive media cameras taking up space.
00:06:28.980
That was, this is an actual event with actual people who are there to see them.
00:06:35.000
It's utterly embarrassing that Carney cannot get out more than two dozen warm bodies
00:06:40.280
to see him sputter on about nothing for at least a little bit of time.
00:06:44.000
And again, maybe Carney just has a certain hold on certain voters.
00:06:48.580
We'll just show up and vote for them because, you know, they hate Trump.
00:06:52.220
At the end of the day, though, I do think that personal like of the person you're voting for does matter.
00:06:58.080
And out of this, I just want to highlight some polling coming out of the Poloowski strategies,
00:07:06.680
And there's an interesting poll here that I think that you guys will appreciate.
00:07:09.960
It's showing what the general voter movement dynamics are.
00:07:16.720
Because everything's been upended by the fact that Trudeau's gone and people are starting to like shift how they're voting a lot.
00:07:25.680
Bernier to Polioff switchers are motivated by stopping the liberals, low immigration, the economy.
00:07:30.740
Trudeau to Polioff switchers are motivated by the economy, stopping the liberals and taxes.
00:07:34.960
And Singh to Kearney switchers are motivated by Trump, experience health care.
00:07:39.360
And I'd probably add that they're also probably motivated by conservative by basically stopping the conservatives,
00:07:45.660
because that's also a narrative out there that you got to stop them or they're going to do something evil and far right.
00:07:53.540
This pollster has the race at 41 percent conservatives, 38 percent liberals, 10 percent NDP, Bloc Québécois 5 and Greens 2.
00:08:02.860
Even then, that does feel like a slight bit of an underpull for the Bloc Québécois,
00:08:07.440
because, again, the PQ is on the rise provincially.
00:08:10.060
I don't see why their federal counterpart would be doing any worse.
00:08:13.300
And frankly, Blanchet has not ever made a fool of himself.
00:08:16.520
But yeah, right now, this one has the conservatives leading by three and starting to really cannibalize the PPC.
00:08:23.140
The conservatives are also, as you can see here, getting a stream of NDP voters from 21 and liberal voters from 2021,
00:08:29.760
where the amount of conservative voters from 21 going liberal is a far, far smaller stream.
00:08:35.960
The liberals are having to basically rely on not just cannibalizing NDP voters and some Bloc voters,
00:08:44.140
They're having to rely on cannibalizing the NDP voters in very specific locations.
00:08:50.800
This is going to be an election where the votes don't even make sense,
00:08:54.640
in the sense the popular vote might have almost no connection to the seats because it matters on where is the vote regionally.
00:09:01.620
We can run up the score in Alberta and win ridings by Saddam Hussein numbers in the rural areas.
00:09:07.780
At the end of the day, that doesn't make you prime minister.
00:09:12.520
I think the path to victory for the conservatives right now relies on southwestern Ontario.
00:09:21.820
Can we win actually like Nepean and beat Mark Carney?
00:09:25.500
That is where I think right now the main seat grabs are for the conservatives.
00:09:36.540
And is there a smattering of some island seats in Vancouver Island or in the Vancouver area proper that we can pick up?
00:09:43.560
I think that is the main thing for the conservatives.
00:09:50.020
I don't think it's actually going to be GTA proper that the conservatives do well in.
00:09:55.440
It's not going to be Brampton or Mississauga or Toronto as a city.
00:09:59.180
If they were smart, they would have picked up Kevin Vong as a conservative party candidate because that guy would have been able to lift up all of Toronto and maybe give the conservatives two or three shots at seats in that city.
00:10:10.280
But for now, I don't think there's really anything going on there.
00:10:13.820
And then another place is winning rural parts of the Maritimes.
00:10:19.760
You're probably not going to win both of the St. John's ridings.
00:10:26.620
Halifax, but they could sweep all the other areas of these provinces, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Newfoundland, PEI.
00:10:34.820
There are probably a couple dozen ridings in play in those areas where the conservatives have even a 20% shot at some of them.
00:10:44.040
If they can cobble together some of the stuff and hold on to what they had in 21, at the very least, they are grabbing up a minority government.
00:10:54.360
In my opinion, that's perfectly fine because guess what?
00:10:57.400
That means we're coming back to another election in one year's time.
00:11:00.500
Pauli have got some time to be prime minister, demonstrate we even in a minority government, he can get stuff done.
00:11:05.680
And then people will want the full thing a little bit later as, frankly, older voters stop focusing on Trump so much.
00:11:14.900
I know anyone who's above the age of 60 watching my videos, you know, bless you because I know all you guys vote conservative and you probably volunteer and all that stuff.
00:11:23.200
But for some reason, there is something about people who it's probably the fact you already own your home and you're on a pension that some people start voting in like delusional ways where they vote based on how they think Trump will react.
00:11:36.120
You know, I'm going to vote the way that I think that will make Trump mad.
00:11:44.220
Here's another poll from the Kolosowiski strategies, Kolosowiski strategies.
00:11:51.160
I'm going to try and get that right because they're good people.
00:11:56.100
If you just want to see them again, 41 conservatives, 38% liberal, 10% NDP, six block, three PPC, 2% green, and then there's no others.
00:12:06.880
I think the PPC will probably hemorrhage another one and a half points to the conservatives.
00:12:12.060
And if that happens, if some PPC voters switch over, easily we are in a conservative government of some kind.
00:12:18.980
And then there's one more thing I actually wanted to highlight because, again, I just want to sound like I was rude going after older voters here.
00:12:25.100
Honestly, it's younger voters' fault for not showing up and voting.
00:12:41.480
So anyone over the age of 60, please shake your 60-plus friends and tell them, hey, who cares what Trump thinks?
00:12:49.880
That's not what the point of an election is domestically.
00:12:53.480
Vote for who's going to lower taxes, you know, fight crime and all that stuff.
00:12:56.920
Because, yeah, I guess voting liberal in some abstract sense might make Trump mad.
00:13:02.740
He actually wants to negotiate with Carney because Carney sucks.
00:13:06.200
But how about we vote for the guys who are actually going to, you know, lock up murderers?
00:13:12.860
But, anyways, that should be it for me today, guys.
00:13:15.600
Make sure you go and volunteer for a conservative candidate in your area.
00:13:18.920
I think that's really going to be the winner of this election.
00:13:21.680
Are there more conservatives hitting doors and talking to people than liberals?
00:13:28.720
Also, again, like this video, subscribe to the channel, leave a comment.