The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - March 30, 2025


Carney has embarrassingly LOW-turnout for local campaign launch!


Episode Stats


Length

13 minutes

Words per minute

192.91183

Word count

2,620

Sentence count

173

Harmful content

Misogyny

1

sentences flagged

Hate speech

3

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

Wyatt Clunock takes a look at how many people showed up to Mark Carney's campaign office launch in his riding of Nepean, and why it doesn't bode well for the Liberals in the upcoming election.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
00:00:00.000 Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here.
00:00:03.100 I've got to say that despite some polls showing the Liberals leading the Conservatives,
00:00:08.400 although the polls I follow still show the Conservatives leading,
00:00:11.600 it almost seems like it might not even matter.
00:00:14.280 Because when you actually look at the Liberals' campaign,
00:00:17.780 it seems like most of their support is just soft support.
00:00:21.340 Those telling pollsters I'm going to be voting Liberal
00:00:23.840 are maybe just a coin toss likelihood of actually showing up and doing so.
00:00:28.800 Like, don't get me wrong.
00:00:30.540 Mark Carney and the Liberals can still win this election.
00:00:33.740 Never underestimate the incompetence of the Conservative Party in running campaigns.
00:00:38.800 But my goodness, Mark Carney is the technical Prime Minister of this country.
00:00:44.020 He's not been Prime Minister very long,
00:00:46.040 so you assume there's going to be a lot of excitement around him.
00:00:49.120 He did a local campaign office launch for himself in his riding of Nepean,
00:00:53.760 which he stole from former Liberal MP Chandra Aria.
00:00:56.780 And do you know how many people showed up?
00:00:59.720 Around 47.
00:01:01.520 This is the photo of trying to show everyone who was able to attend.
00:01:05.280 What you'll notice right away is there are two boom mics.
00:01:08.340 So at the very least, there are two camera teams in this room.
00:01:11.440 There are probably print journalists.
00:01:12.940 There are probably other staffers of Carney.
00:01:15.200 And when you correct for that,
00:01:16.720 I could see this room having as little as 25 actual people
00:01:20.820 who wanted to meet and greet with Carney,
00:01:23.200 maybe sign up to be a volunteer after sizing him up.
00:01:26.400 That is nothing.
00:01:27.740 If Pierre Pauly launched his office in Carleton like a traditional candidate,
00:01:32.260 I really doubt he even did an office launch because he's so busy.
00:01:35.000 But if he did an office launch,
00:01:36.980 that thing would be wall-to-wall packed with people.
00:01:39.700 You would have to block off a street
00:01:41.780 because of all the people spilling out onto the roads
00:01:44.260 from the entrance of the campaign office.
00:01:46.500 This guy who's the prime minister, Carney,
00:01:49.620 can get maybe 25, 30 people interested enough
00:01:52.820 to stand in a room and hear him talk.
00:01:55.120 The photos coming out of it, too, are horrific.
00:01:57.380 And then I want to compare this thing
00:01:58.820 to other conservative candidates
00:02:00.800 who will launch their campaigns either against Carney
00:02:03.480 in the riding of Nepean, Barbara Ball,
00:02:05.740 or just other conservatives around Ontario
00:02:08.420 who are not exactly like the big stars
00:02:11.840 of the campaign for the conservatives.
00:02:13.360 Like, they're good candidates.
00:02:14.380 But it's not like it's a super famous person.
00:02:17.480 And these individuals are having far bigger campaign launches
00:02:20.220 than Mark Carney is.
00:02:21.820 And I doubt that they're getting their numbers padded by CPC HQ
00:02:25.180 because they don't have the time.
00:02:26.880 Whereas the liberals do have an incentive
00:02:28.920 to make it look like big crowds of people
00:02:31.100 are interested in coming and watching Mark Carney speak.
00:02:33.840 I'm going to get into all this in just a second.
00:02:36.120 I do just want to quickly remind you guys,
00:02:38.340 make sure to like this video
00:02:39.640 if you've been liking my Canadian federal election coverage.
00:02:42.420 Subscribe to the channel if you're not yet a subscriber.
00:02:44.920 And always leave a comment
00:02:45.960 because it helps us in the algorithms,
00:02:48.100 lets more people see the videos.
00:02:49.500 And I always do like to scroll through
00:02:50.880 and see what people's opinions are today.
00:02:53.520 Do you think crowd sizes matter?
00:02:55.200 Do you think being able to fill up these events matters
00:02:57.480 when it comes to election day?
00:02:59.240 You tell me.
00:03:00.520 I think it's a bit of a mixed bag.
00:03:02.840 But this is something the Liberal Party actually posted.
00:03:05.680 And by the way, this is a journalist posted this
00:03:08.080 who had attended the event.
00:03:09.460 So there's another person who wasn't an actual attendee.
00:03:12.620 So this is what the Liberal Party posted out of this event.
00:03:15.280 It says,
00:03:15.520 Mark Carney is ready to stand up for the people of Nepean.
00:03:18.560 Well, I think Chandra Aria was actually ready to stand up for him.
00:03:21.760 He got slotted in late at the last moment.
00:03:25.020 Photos like this just remind me so much of Joe Biden.
00:03:28.960 That Mark Carney's grabbing this random supporter's shoulder,
00:03:31.620 like in this really weird, like old man fashion
00:03:34.080 where he's like barely holding on to it.
00:03:35.760 He's just kind of grabbing the corner.
00:03:36.880 Mark Carney doesn't need a lot out of life,
00:03:39.860 but he just needs the corner of this man's shoulder.
00:03:42.420 And the rest of it's so awkward.
00:03:44.180 Like he's just sitting here looking like he's like,
00:03:46.200 that's no joke, man.
00:03:47.380 It really happened.
00:03:48.880 Like dog face pony soldier or whatever, 0.50
00:03:51.220 like Joe Biden would say when he walks up to people.
00:03:53.480 Because there's just no energy with him.
00:03:55.380 There's no warmth.
00:03:56.860 Here's them doing this campaign launch.
00:03:58.680 And you'll notice all the shots are very tight
00:04:00.420 because there's not actually anyone really there to see him.
00:04:04.540 There's like a few people.
00:04:05.560 He's like signing some signs or whatever.
00:04:08.620 And he's not going to campaign his own riding at all.
00:04:10.740 I guarantee you there's a good shot he loses.
00:04:13.180 This is Aiden McKay.
00:04:14.160 I know him pretty well.
00:04:15.440 And he was posting this photo from when Emily Brown in Burlington
00:04:19.000 running against Karina Gould launched her campaign.
00:04:21.680 Look at this.
00:04:22.940 This is obviously a far bigger room.
00:04:25.460 And other than a couple of people who are guests,
00:04:28.080 like Andrew Scheer there,
00:04:29.220 there's Dan McTeague, the former liberal energy minister,
00:04:31.720 or I think he was like immigration minister.
00:04:33.020 And then there's people from like Northern Perspectives there to assist,
00:04:36.480 like to, you know, promote her.
00:04:37.760 This is a room of like real supporters, like real volunteers,
00:04:41.660 people who are wanting to donate to Emily, hit some doors,
00:04:45.360 put some literature in some doors.
00:04:47.440 Nobody at Carney's event,
00:04:48.880 other than maybe a handful of people are going to actually do work.
00:04:51.920 But Emily Brown is able to pack a room wall to wall. 1.00
00:04:55.140 Now let's go on to another one,
00:04:57.520 because this is just actually a reply that Aiden McKay had made to the photo
00:05:04.260 that then Matt Strauss had made.
00:05:05.780 Matt Strauss, I believe, is the candidate for Kitchener South.
00:05:08.800 Really great candidate out there.
00:05:11.140 And he posted a side-by-side image to make sure,
00:05:14.800 like to do the comparison, because why not?
00:05:16.980 So Matt Strauss says,
00:05:18.140 Mark Carney and I both had our office grand openings today.
00:05:20.980 I have a good feeling about this.
00:05:22.760 Thank you, Kitchener South, for all the support.
00:05:25.940 And look, this is Matt Strauss' audience.
00:05:29.280 And then this is Mark Carney's audience.
00:05:31.860 But remember, where are the boom mics in either Matt Strauss' announcement
00:05:36.380 or Emily Brown's?
00:05:38.780 They're not there because these are not events that the media is attending, really.
00:05:42.380 Maybe there's one print journalist who comes and takes a photo
00:05:44.880 for the article for the local paper.
00:05:46.880 But this is actual supporters.
00:05:48.560 Mark Carney's, again, in his local writing that he is running to be elected in,
00:05:54.040 in which it is not a done deal he's even going to be elected in Nepean.
00:05:58.240 He is only bringing in about 25 people,
00:06:00.360 where all these other individuals are bringing in well over 60 to like 100.
00:06:05.220 It's embarrassing.
00:06:08.000 There's also like actual energy in the room.
00:06:10.380 Here's actually Mark Carney's opponent.
00:06:12.440 I'll just bring this up on screen.
00:06:14.060 Barbara Ball announced that she was running against him.
00:06:17.000 She's been in the race for quite a while.
00:06:19.540 And even just the shot of the room, you can tell there's more people than even Carney's event.
00:06:23.960 Again, no big boom mics, no massive media cameras taking up space.
00:06:28.980 That was, this is an actual event with actual people who are there to see them.
00:06:35.000 It's utterly embarrassing that Carney cannot get out more than two dozen warm bodies
00:06:40.280 to see him sputter on about nothing for at least a little bit of time.
00:06:44.000 And again, maybe Carney just has a certain hold on certain voters.
00:06:48.580 We'll just show up and vote for them because, you know, they hate Trump.
00:06:52.220 At the end of the day, though, I do think that personal like of the person you're voting for does matter.
00:06:58.080 And out of this, I just want to highlight some polling coming out of the Poloowski strategies,
00:07:03.280 if I'm saying that correctly.
00:07:04.600 I always have to take a running start at it.
00:07:06.680 And there's an interesting poll here that I think that you guys will appreciate.
00:07:09.960 It's showing what the general voter movement dynamics are.
00:07:14.080 Where are voters moving from in this race?
00:07:16.720 Because everything's been upended by the fact that Trudeau's gone and people are starting to like shift how they're voting a lot.
00:07:23.140 So it says right now from the start,
00:07:25.680 Bernier to Polioff switchers are motivated by stopping the liberals, low immigration, the economy.
00:07:30.740 Trudeau to Polioff switchers are motivated by the economy, stopping the liberals and taxes.
00:07:34.960 And Singh to Kearney switchers are motivated by Trump, experience health care.
00:07:39.360 And I'd probably add that they're also probably motivated by conservative by basically stopping the conservatives,
00:07:45.660 because that's also a narrative out there that you got to stop them or they're going to do something evil and far right.
00:07:50.720 But this one has currently going.
00:07:53.540 This pollster has the race at 41 percent conservatives, 38 percent liberals, 10 percent NDP, Bloc Québécois 5 and Greens 2.
00:08:02.860 Even then, that does feel like a slight bit of an underpull for the Bloc Québécois,
00:08:07.440 because, again, the PQ is on the rise provincially.
00:08:10.060 I don't see why their federal counterpart would be doing any worse.
00:08:13.300 And frankly, Blanchet has not ever made a fool of himself.
00:08:16.520 But yeah, right now, this one has the conservatives leading by three and starting to really cannibalize the PPC.
00:08:23.140 The conservatives are also, as you can see here, getting a stream of NDP voters from 21 and liberal voters from 2021,
00:08:29.760 where the amount of conservative voters from 21 going liberal is a far, far smaller stream.
00:08:35.960 The liberals are having to basically rely on not just cannibalizing NDP voters and some Bloc voters,
00:08:42.180 although I'm very skeptical with the Bloc.
00:08:44.140 They're having to rely on cannibalizing the NDP voters in very specific locations.
00:08:50.800 This is going to be an election where the votes don't even make sense,
00:08:54.640 in the sense the popular vote might have almost no connection to the seats because it matters on where is the vote regionally.
00:09:01.620 We can run up the score in Alberta and win ridings by Saddam Hussein numbers in the rural areas. 0.79
00:09:07.780 At the end of the day, that doesn't make you prime minister.
00:09:10.520 You need to be able to win some of the 905.
00:09:12.520 I think the path to victory for the conservatives right now relies on southwestern Ontario.
00:09:18.200 Can we win London?
00:09:19.420 Can we win Kitchener South?
00:09:20.820 Can we win Burlington?
00:09:21.820 Can we win actually like Nepean and beat Mark Carney?
00:09:25.500 That is where I think right now the main seat grabs are for the conservatives.
00:09:30.880 There's a few seats here and there.
00:09:32.460 Can we hold on to Toronto-St. Paul?
00:09:34.460 Can we pick up Mount Royal in Montreal?
00:09:36.540 And is there a smattering of some island seats in Vancouver Island or in the Vancouver area proper that we can pick up?
00:09:43.560 I think that is the main thing for the conservatives.
00:09:46.360 Can they win, I believe, Winnipeg-Transcona?
00:09:49.100 That's a great pickup.
00:09:50.020 I don't think it's actually going to be GTA proper that the conservatives do well in.
00:09:55.440 It's not going to be Brampton or Mississauga or Toronto as a city.
00:09:59.180 If they were smart, they would have picked up Kevin Vong as a conservative party candidate because that guy would have been able to lift up all of Toronto and maybe give the conservatives two or three shots at seats in that city.
00:10:10.280 But for now, I don't think there's really anything going on there.
00:10:13.820 And then another place is winning rural parts of the Maritimes.
00:10:18.140 Yeah, you're not going to win Charlottetown.
00:10:19.760 You're probably not going to win both of the St. John's ridings.
00:10:23.700 It's going to be one or the other.
00:10:25.000 Same thing with other places like Halifax.
00:10:26.620 Halifax, but they could sweep all the other areas of these provinces, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Newfoundland, PEI.
00:10:34.820 There are probably a couple dozen ridings in play in those areas where the conservatives have even a 20% shot at some of them.
00:10:44.040 If they can cobble together some of the stuff and hold on to what they had in 21, at the very least, they are grabbing up a minority government.
00:10:52.160 Maybe they'll be shy by five seats.
00:10:54.360 In my opinion, that's perfectly fine because guess what?
00:10:57.400 That means we're coming back to another election in one year's time.
00:11:00.500 Pauli have got some time to be prime minister, demonstrate we even in a minority government, he can get stuff done.
00:11:05.680 And then people will want the full thing a little bit later as, frankly, older voters stop focusing on Trump so much.
00:11:13.680 That is a problem.
00:11:14.900 I know anyone who's above the age of 60 watching my videos, you know, bless you because I know all you guys vote conservative and you probably volunteer and all that stuff.
00:11:23.200 But for some reason, there is something about people who it's probably the fact you already own your home and you're on a pension that some people start voting in like delusional ways where they vote based on how they think Trump will react.
00:11:36.120 You know, I'm going to vote the way that I think that will make Trump mad.
00:11:38.940 It's like, who cares?
00:11:40.900 How about make the economy better?
00:11:42.780 I don't know.
00:11:44.220 Here's another poll from the Kolosowiski strategies, Kolosowiski strategies.
00:11:51.160 I'm going to try and get that right because they're good people.
00:11:54.060 But yeah, this is their top level numbers.
00:11:56.100 If you just want to see them again, 41 conservatives, 38% liberal, 10% NDP, six block, three PPC, 2% green, and then there's no others.
00:12:06.880 I think the PPC will probably hemorrhage another one and a half points to the conservatives.
00:12:12.060 And if that happens, if some PPC voters switch over, easily we are in a conservative government of some kind.
00:12:18.980 And then there's one more thing I actually wanted to highlight because, again, I just want to sound like I was rude going after older voters here.
00:12:25.100 Honestly, it's younger voters' fault for not showing up and voting. 0.88
00:12:29.640 Or maybe I'll save that for another time.
00:12:31.560 Somebody else just basically showed the chart.
00:12:33.380 It was, like, startling.
00:12:34.380 60-plus voters' main issue is Trump.
00:12:37.140 Every other age bracket is, like, the economy.
00:12:39.880 It's, like, jobs and all that stuff.
00:12:41.480 So anyone over the age of 60, please shake your 60-plus friends and tell them, hey, who cares what Trump thinks?
00:12:49.880 That's not what the point of an election is domestically.
00:12:53.480 Vote for who's going to lower taxes, you know, fight crime and all that stuff.
00:12:56.920 Because, yeah, I guess voting liberal in some abstract sense might make Trump mad.
00:13:02.040 It's not going to.
00:13:02.740 He actually wants to negotiate with Carney because Carney sucks.
00:13:06.200 But how about we vote for the guys who are actually going to, you know, lock up murderers?
00:13:11.040 That might be nice.
00:13:12.860 But, anyways, that should be it for me today, guys.
00:13:15.600 Make sure you go and volunteer for a conservative candidate in your area.
00:13:18.920 I think that's really going to be the winner of this election.
00:13:21.680 Are there more conservatives hitting doors and talking to people than liberals?
00:13:25.780 But I encourage you guys, always get involved.
00:13:28.720 Also, again, like this video, subscribe to the channel, leave a comment.
00:13:31.560 Do all that great stuff.
00:13:33.220 And I'll see you guys tomorrow.
00:13:34.820 See you guys tomorrow.