Wyatt Claypool discusses the current state of the Liberal Party and its chances in a federal election in 2026, and how it compares to the other major parties in the election. He also takes a look at the polling numbers on the Trump issue.
00:04:09.320So they're only asking people their top issue.
00:04:11.540Just you only get to pick one of them.
00:04:13.100Back in April, when the election was happening, this issue of Trump and the United States was polling at around about 37.5% according to nanos.
00:04:29.920Now, nanos does actually really good polling during elections.
00:04:33.060Sometimes they're in between election polling can be a little bit more liberal leaning because they have a quicker and dirtier way of doing it post-election, between elections.
00:04:41.100So sometimes they have more too many urban people answering the polls.
00:04:43.700Maybe they're sorting that out because their numbers have gotten more realistic.
00:04:47.120After the election, like the month after, the liberals are somehow leading by 14 points.
00:04:50.840I'm like, that's not how polling numbers change over time.
00:04:53.880You need to fix your methodology, and maybe they have.
00:04:56.120But in April, 37.5% of people were anti-Trump voters.
00:05:01.820Do you know what that number is now as of this was the 5th of December?
00:05:37.340Yes, there were some anti-Trump voters who still voted conservative because they're like,
00:05:40.700I think Polly can really take on Trump better than Carney can.
00:05:43.560But there would have been anti-Trump voters who voted for the NDP because Carney sounded too conciliatory and he needed to be even harsher like Jagmeet Singh was.
00:05:55.480But even if Mark Carney was capturing 25% of the voters, which I don't think is unrealistic at all,
00:06:01.780that meant that the rest of his vote was less than half of what the Trump portion of that vote was bringing.
00:06:09.340At the time of the election, to give you a little bit of perspective,
00:06:13.940the amount of people who would have considered the economy and jobs to be the top issue would have been around only 18% of the vote.
00:06:23.240That was jobs and economy sitting underneath the issue of Donald Trump as the top issue for voters.
00:06:29.680And now, in December 2025, jobs and economy sitting obviously above Trump,
00:06:36.600and it's actually gone up to 22.6% of people consider that their top issue.
00:06:43.980And although there are sometimes positive job numbers coming out for Mark Carney,
00:06:48.980a little bit of it's just because we're going into the holiday season and naturally a bunch of people get employed in the retail sector during the holiday season.
00:06:54.540The gains are also in provinces like Alberta, which has had absolute record-breaking amounts of people becoming employed over the past few months.
00:07:02.460Now, again, that also could be holiday season stuff.
00:07:05.280But the thing is that the actual prosperity is where the Conservatives already do well,
00:07:10.580and people are not going to stop voting Conservative.
00:07:12.360In fact, people like Liberal MP Corey Hogan, who is the MP for Calgary Confederation,
00:07:18.820is he going to survive the next election having voted against the Memorandum of Understanding with Danielle Smith?
00:07:24.420You're going to get a lot of people saying, he's a phony.
00:07:26.780He pretended like he was going to be a big pipeline guy.
00:07:28.980Carney and his MPs pretended like they were in favor of a pipeline.
00:07:33.060But when even Polly and the Conservatives just challenged them to vote for the text of their own MOU,
00:07:37.900they were full of excuses on why this was unfair.
00:08:05.800I want to show you the national numbers and how much the Liberals have had their vote change since just a couple of weeks ago, according to Nanos.
00:08:15.140And now we're back with the numbers on the board as of November 29th.
00:08:23.780And in just a second here, I'm going to fast-forward just a week later to show you guys how the Nanos polling has shifted.
00:08:30.560I actually do believe they must have changed their methodology recently, because they used to do this weird thing where they'd pull around 1,000 people.
00:08:37.840But when they pulled 1,000 people, it would just be a new 250 people each week, and they'd bump off the oldest 250,
00:08:44.440where now they actually seem to have more movement that indicates they're doing new pulls with a new 1,000 people each time.
00:09:26.840You can see how much I already have, like, dry erase marker on my hands.
00:09:30.580I sometimes erase this, like, 50 times in a row, getting this stuff right, because I am not an artist, and I frequently mess it up.
00:09:38.160But now let's jump ahead to what the numbers are looking like just a week later.
00:09:44.040And by the way, remember, these numbers are not taking into account this motion vote yet.
00:09:49.280The change I'm about to show you is probably just the green left getting mad at the Liberals, which is going to be shaken out in how the numbers are going to look here.
00:09:58.900You guys will know what I mean when I say that.
00:10:00.580So the Liberals now, as of December, what is it, I think it's, like, December 6th or so here, they are now, Liberals here, they are at 39.1%.
00:10:23.200The Conservatives have now actually fallen too, but it's really less of a problem for them.