The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - Carney In, Trudeau Out, Nothing changes, Liberals will lose next election.

00:00:00.000 Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here. So Mark Carney is in, Justin Trudeau is out, nothing ever changes

00:00:07.500 in Canadian politics, and the Liberals are still going to lose the next federal election.

00:00:13.360 Man, the Liberals really thought they did something with this leadership race.

00:00:18.040 Swapping out Justin Trudeau for Mark Carney has done nothing for them. They are only right now

00:00:24.360 at the current support levels they had before they started trying to get rid of Justin Trudeau

00:00:29.360 as leader. So this has all been a practice in futility. They were at 28, 29% before they

00:00:36.020 started trying to oust Trudeau, and they are returning to 28 and 29%, except they blew a

00:00:42.360 bunch of money trying to raise Trudeau's profile over the last six months before finally giving up

00:00:47.840 and then just having a leadership race with some of the most boring people you've ever seen in your

00:00:52.660 entire life. Mark Carney, Chrystia Freeland, Karina Gould, Frank Bayless. They should have kept Chandra

00:00:59.120 Ari and Ruby Dahl around. At least that would have been exciting. But today I want to break down the

00:01:04.460 leadership result and then explain why this is not going to change anything in the next federal

00:01:10.100 election. But before I do that, guys, make sure to like this video, subscribe to the channel. I'm

00:01:15.300 trying to get to 100,000 subscribers by mid-December this year, or I owe all of my friends dinner. And also

00:01:22.360 leave a comment. Helps us in the algorithm. The question for the comments today is, do you think Mark Carney

00:01:28.080 has a chance of beating Pierre Polyev or even keeping the conservatives to a minority government?

00:01:33.640 But anyways, I just want to start off with this tweet I put out today, because I think it does

00:01:37.460 describe how pathetic the liberal leadership race was pretty succinctly. So 151,899 people

00:01:45.240 voted in the liberal leadership race. Remember, this is to choose the next prime minister of Canada,

00:01:52.420 a G7 country and 151,899 people voted. I noted saying, in the 2022 UCP leadership race, that is the

00:02:03.100 Alberta United Conservative Party leadership race, that was similarly truncated, 84,000 Albertans cast

00:02:10.440 ballots. That was a very tight leadership race, just like this one. And almost half, actually more than

00:02:17.120 half of people voted in the UCP race that voted in the liberal leadership race. And that is a province

00:02:23.240 of 4 million compared to a country of 4.3 or 43 million. That's insane. And then I said, in 2022 as

00:02:32.000 well, Pierre Polyev got 295,285 votes in the conservative federal leadership race. What? The liberals,

00:02:41.980 this leadership race is pathetic. And remember, UCP memberships for a one-year membership, the minimum 0.99

00:02:48.160 you need to be able to vote in a nomination or a leadership race is 10 bucks. Federal memberships,

00:02:55.140 $15. Liberal memberships for this federal leadership races, this race, $0. It was free. It's been free

00:03:03.140 actually since I believe like 2010 or something like that. How weren't they able to get more people to

00:03:09.780 vote? I thought Mark Carney was a super exciting candidate. I thought all these candidates were so

00:03:15.480 energetic and virile that people would run out their houses to vote for these people. And by the way,

00:03:21.460 you just had to vote online. There was an app to vote with. And based on how hard it was for people

00:03:29.020 to verify their identities and how some people just got outright rejected as members, because I remember

00:03:35.120 that they had said, they had announced proudly that they had 400,000 Liberal Party members who

00:03:41.340 can vote in the leadership. But then when I was watching the Liberal event, where a bunch of people

00:03:47.460 did some speeches, Jean Chrétien came up and basically talked for five years. Justin Trudeau

00:03:52.820 came up, sounding drunk, by the way. And I'm not just trying to be rude. He legitimately sounded drunk.

00:03:58.720 Some people said he was sick. And there was a little bit of a gravel in his voice. But just the way he was

00:04:03.740 talking like, hey, guys, it's so great to be here. He was actually kind of slurring his words. He must

00:04:09.860 have stolen Elizabeth May's NyQuil. But people talked forever. And at one point, I'm not sure if

00:04:16.040 it was Mark Carney or somebody else. It wasn't the president of the party. But somebody said there

00:04:20.700 were 300,000 Liberal members, more than 300,000 people who were eligible to vote in this leadership.

00:04:26.920 It's like, so you guys got rid of 100,000 members? That's a little bit sketchy. And you have to

00:04:34.200 realize in Canada, because the federal elections, like Watchdog, like because Elections Canada and

00:04:41.140 other provincial election boards don't oversee internal party races, a lot of internal party

00:04:47.180 elections from all parties, by the way, are as rigged as the country music charts. It's as rigged as the

00:04:54.260 WWE. These things are oftentimes just play acting. You know, there are parties that have far more

00:05:01.700 legitimate nominations than others. The conservatives tend to have far more legitimate nominations than

00:05:07.080 the liberals. The liberals appoint tend to their candidates. But it's a problem in every party

00:05:10.580 where they want a certain person, the party elites, and they just push everything towards them.

00:05:15.160 They will sign up as many fake members as possible to vote for them. It happens. It's disgusting. I hate

00:05:19.880 it. But this liberal leadership smelled so much like that, because I need to show you what the results

00:05:25.380 were. And it's just absurd what the margins were here. I knew that Mark Carney was going to win.

00:05:33.320 But did you guys expect this, that he was going to win with 85.9% of the vote? Chris G. Furlan got

00:05:39.760 8%. Karina Gould got 3.2%. And Frank Bayless got 3. Like, really? 85%? And I don't believe you that

00:05:50.040 he got 85%. Maybe it's perfectly legitimate. But like, maybe he got 85.9% because of all like the

00:05:56.240 media coverage and whatnot. But my goodness, there was such low voter turnout. 151 people voted,

00:06:02.940 despite there being, let's say, even just say 300,000 members. So they barely got over half. And if we

00:06:08.320 take into account the $400,000, the $400,000 number that they had previously stated, this is like 38%

00:06:15.880 turnout. This is abysmal. You actually only had 40% of your party vote. And that means like 0.23 or

00:06:25.320 like 0.38% of Canadians voted to determine who the next prime minister was going to be. That's pathetic. 0.99

00:06:33.720 And it's an unelected prime minister now. We are repeating history. Pierre Elliott Trudeau, 1.00

00:06:38.320 steps out of office after becoming very unpopular. And he is replaced by John Turner as prime minister,

00:06:43.740 who wasn't even a member of parliament at the time. And he gets clobbered. And now Trudeau Jr.

00:06:49.340 is stepping down. And he is being replaced by Mark Carney, a man who is not a member of parliament,

00:06:54.780 but is about to become the prime minister of this country. Absolutely wacky. And again, I think they

00:07:02.100 know that they've messed up here. At one point, they proudly said, this is our best first quarter

00:07:07.740 fundraising ever. And it's like, yeah, because nobody was giving you guys money for like the past

00:07:13.160 five years because they hate you. And quarter one fundraising is also like typically your lowest

00:07:19.500 quarter because your fourth quarter with the holidays is the best quarter usually. And you had

00:07:25.200 a leadership race in the first quarter. Of course, it was going to be your best quarter. But that's all they

00:07:30.280 have now. It wasn't their best quarter ever. It was far from their best quarter ever, even though

00:07:34.620 the population of the country keeps going up massively and they have way more people they can

00:07:38.440 work with to get donations from. Nobody's donating. These people are still getting absolutely smashed

00:07:43.960 by pure poly of when it comes to fundraising. I think it's been like Mark Carney's raised like 3.1

00:07:51.680 million, which is a good amount of money to raise. I think like Leslie Lewis actually fundraised about

00:07:57.320 that much in the leadership race in 22. And I know you can say, well, that leadership race went

00:08:02.660 on longer. The problem with that argument is that it's still a leadership race within one year and

00:08:08.080 people can only donate so much. And so a shorter leadership race doesn't exactly mean you're going

00:08:14.300 to get a proportionally smaller amount of money compared to the length of the race, because most

00:08:19.400 people who will donate will donate at some point in the race and people who don't donate don't donate.

00:08:23.800 Uh, pure poly have literally raised like triple in his leadership race. What maybe not quite that

00:08:30.680 much, but like he raised like probably double what every single liberal leadership candidate raised

00:08:35.500 combined. That's how bad this is. And now I want to show you the Halifax numbers or maybe I'll move

00:08:42.740 on to one other thing. This is really funny when this is their picture of strength in the aftermath.

00:08:48.000 Canada strong. And you have Mark Carney there looking like Mr. Burns, who's been AI'd. He's just

00:08:57.180 not a good candidate. And this is the problem for the liberals. They are running a bad candidate for

00:09:02.940 the prime minister slot. This is the Halifax numbers because this is the by-election that we're going to

00:09:07.560 have in April that the liberals are clearly using as a litmus test. Already the NDP is backing them

00:09:13.000 saying that they're not going to vote no confidence. This riding, let's go back to the 2021 and 2019

00:09:18.440 numbers. The liberals have consistently got in both elections 42% of the vote. This is in fact a

00:09:25.060 riding that it's mostly competitive between the liberals and the NDP. The conservatives are actually

00:09:30.420 a pure afterthought here. In fact, the conservatives came fourth place in 2019 behind the greens.

00:09:35.640 In 2021, they got 12%. Right now, they are showing the conservatives still up on the 338 projections

00:09:42.380 that they're projecting they get 17% today. I think because the 338 number is being weighed down

00:09:51.060 by bad polls like Frank Graves' poll at ECOS and other pollsters that are showing, oh, the liberals

00:09:56.260 are suddenly ahead. No, they're not. That's called a response bias. It's because a lot of liberals are

00:10:00.840 taking polls disproportionate to their actual support among the Canadian general population.

00:10:06.480 Most pollsters are not intentionally trying to have bad poll results. I think they're just not

00:10:10.420 properly correcting for it. A few of them, like Frank Graves, he's not even trying. He just hates

00:10:15.180 the conservatives. Let me put the photo back up. He has literally posted that he just wants to see

00:10:20.480 Pierre Polyev lose. Here's Frank Graves from back in 2022 saying, a real conservative option

00:10:26.580 is a healthy counterbalance and a healthy democracy. Pierre Polyev is an acolyte of authoritarian

00:10:31.780 populism. This is never healthy. You are on notice. Going to make sure you are never going to lead my

00:10:37.600 country. I don't make idle threats. And then he deleted that, which kind of does make it seem like

00:10:41.880 he might make idle threats. But who knows? Regardless, though, once you clear out those polls from the

00:10:49.460 general 338 metrics, I actually think that Halifax has the ability to probably go 23, 24, 25%

00:10:58.800 conservative. That's not going to get them the win. Far from it. It could end up making sure that the

00:11:04.140 NDP wins if they trip up the liberals enough. But regardless, if the conservatives get a quarter of

00:11:09.560 people in a riding like Halifax to vote conservative, that means most of Nova Scotia is probably going to

00:11:14.000 go conservative. That means New Brunswick's probably conservative. That means Newfoundland's

00:11:17.380 probably conservative. They might even grab a seat in PEI. That's the problem for the liberals.

00:11:23.440 Nothing that they've done has changed anything. That is why I said nothing changes in the title

00:11:27.580 of this video and I said at the start. Mark Carney's policies are Trudeau's policies. And it's not like

00:11:32.220 a frivolous way that they're kind of similar people, so I assume they have the same policies.

00:11:36.280 Mark Carney can say all day he wants to get rid of the carbon tax now. What is he going to do?

00:11:39.880 Replace it with an industrial carbon tax? It's the same thing. I've said it before and I'll say it

00:11:45.700 again. There is no such thing as a tax that everyone doesn't pay in some way. Because when

00:11:51.360 you increase taxes in one part of the economy, it affects every part of the economy. Because if

00:11:57.060 somebody has higher costs because taxes eat up into their profits, they're going to have to 0.99

00:12:01.780 increase prices because people don't live on, like people don't live for free. They must increase

00:12:07.320 prices if you put a carbon tax on their industry. If you put an industrial carbon tax on oil and gas

00:12:13.960 companies directly or manufacturers or whatever, or farmers, prices will go up. Just because the

00:12:19.400 consumer carbon tax is gone doesn't change anything. Anyways, as long as you are still

00:12:24.540 levying tax. And the thing is, again, it's not a frivolous comparison to say that nothing's changing.

00:12:29.620 Mark Carney's working with Team Trudeau. Do you think that they are going to let him change any of

00:12:34.000 the policies? It's like Kamala Harris replacing Joe Biden. They wouldn't let Kamala Harris run against 1.00

00:12:39.540 any of Joe Biden's policies because screw you. I brought you here. You're not going to suddenly 0.98

00:12:44.660 start saying that I'm a stupid old man and I don't agree with any of his policies. You're here because 0.99

00:12:49.200 of me. And I think Trudeau and Katie Telford and Rob Silver are looking at Mark Carney and maybe not

00:12:55.560 Trudeau because he's too drunk to be able to figure it out. But the rest of them are going to say,

00:12:59.880 Gerald Butts, that we brought you here, Mark. You're going to do what we say. You're not walking away from

00:13:05.040 the liberal agenda. Plus, Mark is more radical than these people. There's a reason why we have

00:13:10.420 clips of him saying radical things about the climate on UN panels. He's in favor of a carbon

00:13:16.160 tax tariff, central bank digital currencies. The man has backed increasing capital gains inclusion

00:13:23.380 rates. The man has backed UBI. He's a nutcase. And also, he's been the economic advisor for four

00:13:30.640 years. He's the type of guy who endorses stupid policies like the HST, GST tax freeze. He thought 1.00

00:13:36.100 that was a good one. And that should also tell you his political instincts suck. His speech, his 1.00

00:13:41.680 winning acceptance speech was horrible in terms of the content was just kind of there. It was anti-American

00:13:49.160 stuff. We're going to stand up and we're going to stand up strong. Wow. Really, Mark? We're not going

00:13:53.480 to sit down weakly and hope for death. Regardless, he doesn't know how to lean into a word in a speech.

00:14:01.360 I know this sounds minor. But when he's going to be up against Pierre Polyev in a debate and the man

00:14:07.040 doesn't know how to lean into a word to get some oomph and some momentum, he's going to get clobbered.

00:14:12.320 I would love to see it. I want to see Pierre Polyev beat this guy. But the man was like,

00:14:18.060 and we need to like, and we're going to protect our economy and stand up to the Americans. And like

00:14:23.800 anyone else, if they were delivering that speech at gunpoint and you had to do it well, you would

00:14:27.940 have been like, and we're going to stand up to the Americans. He was like, and like, we're going to

00:14:32.880 protect our economy and stand up to the Americans. And he just talks in pure robotic monotone at all

00:14:39.940 times. And it's like, why did they think this was a good idea to have this guy's leader? Chrystia Freeland

00:14:45.340 can put more emotion in her voice. And her voice sounds at times like a drive-through intercom.

00:14:51.840 And she's still better. Again, they should have run Frank Bayless if they wanted to win.

00:14:56.280 I'm a very orthodox conservative. Of course, I just want whoever is the most conservative person

00:15:00.420 in the country to be the prime minister. But I will take whatever I can get. And if I was forced to vote

00:15:05.780 in that liberal leadership, I would have voted Frank Bayless. And if I was a liberal advisor, I'd be

00:15:09.600 like, why don't we run Frank Bayless? He's like a businessman. Is he corrupt? Sure. He's a liberal. Of course,

00:15:14.320 he's corrupt. But at least he's an actual businessman where like Mark Carney's a fakey 0.98

00:15:18.140 do businessman who like runs asset management companies and has massive amounts of money,

00:15:22.620 mostly because of his connections to governments. So people invest in ventures he backs. But the

00:15:27.420 guy's already shot himself directly in the foot so many times. Like he has like a high power scope on

00:15:32.780 just to make sure he doesn't miss any inch of his foot shooting himself right now. Because the man

00:15:38.500 jumpstarts his campaign on The Daily Show in New York City, moves his company from Canada to New York City,

00:15:44.320 has been living in London for like 15 years, calling himself a European. Do you not think 0.99

00:15:49.100 the conservatives are just taking all the old Michael Ignatieff ads from 2011, dusting them off,

00:15:54.220 slapping on Mark Carney's face and running them again? This guy is going to get absolutely destroyed.

00:16:00.280 And again, all the polls are already reconsolidating over and showing the conservative

00:16:03.720 lead widening. Because the sugar high for the liberals is gone now. And now they actually have

00:16:09.140 to put up with the fact that they have the most boring man on the planet running as their leader.

00:16:14.380 John Turner was also not exactly a charismatic guy. The liberals and conservatives like fail or

00:16:21.260 succeed off of the back of if is their leader compelling or not. Stephen Harper was probably

00:16:27.680 the guy who broke the mold on this. He is not a particularly flashy leader. But he was up against

00:16:32.940 Paul Martin, who was not particularly flashy either. And the liberal government had gotten

00:16:37.740 pretty corrupt back then. It's not even close to the corruption today. But they had gotten worn out

00:16:41.800 and tired. So Harper was able to win. But Harper was only able to get one majority term because the

00:16:47.580 liberals and NDP really couldn't figure out a good leader. Jack Layton was splitting the liberals

00:16:51.940 vote. And so Harper was able to eventually get a majority. But even Harper eventually lost because

00:16:56.180 he's just not a fighter. You want someone who's a fighter. Paulio is a fighter. Mark Carney is not.

00:17:00.840 Stephen Dion was not. Michael Ignatieff was not. And John Turner was not. When you run boring people

00:17:07.040 as your party leader, you are going to get boring results. Aaron O'Toole did not do well because he is

00:17:12.360 an uncompelling, unconservative man. I've said this before. Politics is a game of bases. You are trying

00:17:20.640 to get your base out. That is 90% of politics. Political consultants and strategists and political

00:17:27.900 campaign managers who tell you to tack to the middle are insane. You don't tack further to whatever

00:17:33.900 your ideological wing is. But what you do is you deliver what your base wants and you deliver it very

00:17:39.320 loudly and proudly because your base is always going to be the vast, vast majority of the people who

00:17:44.480 show up and vote for you. The people who really like you. If you target swing voters too hard, you will

00:17:49.360 lose. And Mark Carney is somebody who I don't think the base of the Liberal Party is in love with.

00:17:54.660 And also no swing voters care about them. So they have like the worst of both worlds here.

00:17:59.760 But anyways, that's pretty much it for me today. So Mark Carney wins with like 86% of the vote,

00:18:07.020 apparently. Most of the people didn't even vote in the election. This is going to look bad. And I think

00:18:13.780 that all the negative ads against Mark Carney have already written themselves and we are just waiting

00:18:18.100 for the hits to start coming. By the way, other than the fact I want to remind you guys, hey,

00:18:23.060 like this video, subscribe to the channel, leave a comment. I'm starting this new trend where I put

00:18:27.420 some Nintendo Entertainment System game in the corner of my shot because I have like 100 of them

00:18:32.600 because I'm like some nerdy collector. Today, I thought a very fitting title to put in the background

00:18:38.180 was Deja Vu because we are having just a Deja Vu moment with Mark Carney replacing Justin Trudeau and it

00:18:45.460 feeling like basically nothing changed. We have been here before. Anyways, so that's it for me today,

00:18:51.240 guys. See you later.

The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - March 10, 2025

Carney In, Trudeau Out, Nothing changes, Liberals will lose next election.

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