Carney In, Trudeau Out, Nothing changes, Liberals will lose next election.
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Summary
Wyatt Claypool breaks down the Liberal leadership race and why it was a complete waste of time and money. He also explains why Justin Trudeau is still going to lose the next election and why he should have been replaced by someone else.
Transcript
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Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here. So Mark Carney is in, Justin Trudeau is out, nothing ever changes
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in Canadian politics, and the Liberals are still going to lose the next federal election.
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Man, the Liberals really thought they did something with this leadership race.
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Swapping out Justin Trudeau for Mark Carney has done nothing for them. They are only right now
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at the current support levels they had before they started trying to get rid of Justin Trudeau
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as leader. So this has all been a practice in futility. They were at 28, 29% before they
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started trying to oust Trudeau, and they are returning to 28 and 29%, except they blew a
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bunch of money trying to raise Trudeau's profile over the last six months before finally giving up
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and then just having a leadership race with some of the most boring people you've ever seen in your
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entire life. Mark Carney, Chrystia Freeland, Karina Gould, Frank Bayless. They should have kept Chandra
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Ari and Ruby Dahl around. At least that would have been exciting. But today I want to break down the
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leadership result and then explain why this is not going to change anything in the next federal
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election. But before I do that, guys, make sure to like this video, subscribe to the channel. I'm
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trying to get to 100,000 subscribers by mid-December this year, or I owe all of my friends dinner. And also
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leave a comment. Helps us in the algorithm. The question for the comments today is, do you think Mark Carney
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has a chance of beating Pierre Polyev or even keeping the conservatives to a minority government?
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But anyways, I just want to start off with this tweet I put out today, because I think it does
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describe how pathetic the liberal leadership race was pretty succinctly. So 151,899 people
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voted in the liberal leadership race. Remember, this is to choose the next prime minister of Canada,
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a G7 country and 151,899 people voted. I noted saying, in the 2022 UCP leadership race, that is the
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Alberta United Conservative Party leadership race, that was similarly truncated, 84,000 Albertans cast
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ballots. That was a very tight leadership race, just like this one. And almost half, actually more than
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half of people voted in the UCP race that voted in the liberal leadership race. And that is a province
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of 4 million compared to a country of 4.3 or 43 million. That's insane. And then I said, in 2022 as
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well, Pierre Polyev got 295,285 votes in the conservative federal leadership race. What? The liberals,
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this leadership race is pathetic. And remember, UCP memberships for a one-year membership, the minimum
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you need to be able to vote in a nomination or a leadership race is 10 bucks. Federal memberships,
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$15. Liberal memberships for this federal leadership races, this race, $0. It was free. It's been free
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actually since I believe like 2010 or something like that. How weren't they able to get more people to
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vote? I thought Mark Carney was a super exciting candidate. I thought all these candidates were so
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energetic and virile that people would run out their houses to vote for these people. And by the way,
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you just had to vote online. There was an app to vote with. And based on how hard it was for people
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to verify their identities and how some people just got outright rejected as members, because I remember
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that they had said, they had announced proudly that they had 400,000 Liberal Party members who
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can vote in the leadership. But then when I was watching the Liberal event, where a bunch of people
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did some speeches, Jean Chrétien came up and basically talked for five years. Justin Trudeau
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came up, sounding drunk, by the way. And I'm not just trying to be rude. He legitimately sounded drunk.
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Some people said he was sick. And there was a little bit of a gravel in his voice. But just the way he was
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talking like, hey, guys, it's so great to be here. He was actually kind of slurring his words. He must
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have stolen Elizabeth May's NyQuil. But people talked forever. And at one point, I'm not sure if
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it was Mark Carney or somebody else. It wasn't the president of the party. But somebody said there
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were 300,000 Liberal members, more than 300,000 people who were eligible to vote in this leadership.
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It's like, so you guys got rid of 100,000 members? That's a little bit sketchy. And you have to
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realize in Canada, because the federal elections, like Watchdog, like because Elections Canada and
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other provincial election boards don't oversee internal party races, a lot of internal party
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elections from all parties, by the way, are as rigged as the country music charts. It's as rigged as the
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WWE. These things are oftentimes just play acting. You know, there are parties that have far more
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legitimate nominations than others. The conservatives tend to have far more legitimate nominations than
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the liberals. The liberals appoint tend to their candidates. But it's a problem in every party
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where they want a certain person, the party elites, and they just push everything towards them.
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They will sign up as many fake members as possible to vote for them. It happens. It's disgusting. I hate
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it. But this liberal leadership smelled so much like that, because I need to show you what the results
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were. And it's just absurd what the margins were here. I knew that Mark Carney was going to win.
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But did you guys expect this, that he was going to win with 85.9% of the vote? Chris G. Furlan got
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8%. Karina Gould got 3.2%. And Frank Bayless got 3. Like, really? 85%? And I don't believe you that
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he got 85%. Maybe it's perfectly legitimate. But like, maybe he got 85.9% because of all like the
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media coverage and whatnot. But my goodness, there was such low voter turnout. 151 people voted,
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despite there being, let's say, even just say 300,000 members. So they barely got over half. And if we
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take into account the $400,000, the $400,000 number that they had previously stated, this is like 38%
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turnout. This is abysmal. You actually only had 40% of your party vote. And that means like 0.23 or
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like 0.38% of Canadians voted to determine who the next prime minister was going to be. That's pathetic.
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And it's an unelected prime minister now. We are repeating history. Pierre Elliott Trudeau,
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steps out of office after becoming very unpopular. And he is replaced by John Turner as prime minister,
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who wasn't even a member of parliament at the time. And he gets clobbered. And now Trudeau Jr.
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is stepping down. And he is being replaced by Mark Carney, a man who is not a member of parliament,
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but is about to become the prime minister of this country. Absolutely wacky. And again, I think they
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know that they've messed up here. At one point, they proudly said, this is our best first quarter
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fundraising ever. And it's like, yeah, because nobody was giving you guys money for like the past
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five years because they hate you. And quarter one fundraising is also like typically your lowest
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quarter because your fourth quarter with the holidays is the best quarter usually. And you had
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a leadership race in the first quarter. Of course, it was going to be your best quarter. But that's all they
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have now. It wasn't their best quarter ever. It was far from their best quarter ever, even though
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the population of the country keeps going up massively and they have way more people they can
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work with to get donations from. Nobody's donating. These people are still getting absolutely smashed
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by pure poly of when it comes to fundraising. I think it's been like Mark Carney's raised like 3.1
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million, which is a good amount of money to raise. I think like Leslie Lewis actually fundraised about
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that much in the leadership race in 22. And I know you can say, well, that leadership race went
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on longer. The problem with that argument is that it's still a leadership race within one year and
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people can only donate so much. And so a shorter leadership race doesn't exactly mean you're going
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to get a proportionally smaller amount of money compared to the length of the race, because most
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people who will donate will donate at some point in the race and people who don't donate don't donate.
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Uh, pure poly have literally raised like triple in his leadership race. What maybe not quite that
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much, but like he raised like probably double what every single liberal leadership candidate raised
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combined. That's how bad this is. And now I want to show you the Halifax numbers or maybe I'll move
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on to one other thing. This is really funny when this is their picture of strength in the aftermath.
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Canada strong. And you have Mark Carney there looking like Mr. Burns, who's been AI'd. He's just
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not a good candidate. And this is the problem for the liberals. They are running a bad candidate for
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the prime minister slot. This is the Halifax numbers because this is the by-election that we're going to
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have in April that the liberals are clearly using as a litmus test. Already the NDP is backing them
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saying that they're not going to vote no confidence. This riding, let's go back to the 2021 and 2019
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numbers. The liberals have consistently got in both elections 42% of the vote. This is in fact a
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riding that it's mostly competitive between the liberals and the NDP. The conservatives are actually
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a pure afterthought here. In fact, the conservatives came fourth place in 2019 behind the greens.
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In 2021, they got 12%. Right now, they are showing the conservatives still up on the 338 projections
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that they're projecting they get 17% today. I think because the 338 number is being weighed down
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by bad polls like Frank Graves' poll at ECOS and other pollsters that are showing, oh, the liberals
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are suddenly ahead. No, they're not. That's called a response bias. It's because a lot of liberals are
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taking polls disproportionate to their actual support among the Canadian general population.
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Most pollsters are not intentionally trying to have bad poll results. I think they're just not
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properly correcting for it. A few of them, like Frank Graves, he's not even trying. He just hates
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the conservatives. Let me put the photo back up. He has literally posted that he just wants to see
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Pierre Polyev lose. Here's Frank Graves from back in 2022 saying, a real conservative option
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is a healthy counterbalance and a healthy democracy. Pierre Polyev is an acolyte of authoritarian
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populism. This is never healthy. You are on notice. Going to make sure you are never going to lead my
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country. I don't make idle threats. And then he deleted that, which kind of does make it seem like
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he might make idle threats. But who knows? Regardless, though, once you clear out those polls from the
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general 338 metrics, I actually think that Halifax has the ability to probably go 23, 24, 25%
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conservative. That's not going to get them the win. Far from it. It could end up making sure that the
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NDP wins if they trip up the liberals enough. But regardless, if the conservatives get a quarter of
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people in a riding like Halifax to vote conservative, that means most of Nova Scotia is probably going to
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go conservative. That means New Brunswick's probably conservative. That means Newfoundland's
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probably conservative. They might even grab a seat in PEI. That's the problem for the liberals.
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Nothing that they've done has changed anything. That is why I said nothing changes in the title
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of this video and I said at the start. Mark Carney's policies are Trudeau's policies. And it's not like
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a frivolous way that they're kind of similar people, so I assume they have the same policies.
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Mark Carney can say all day he wants to get rid of the carbon tax now. What is he going to do?
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Replace it with an industrial carbon tax? It's the same thing. I've said it before and I'll say it
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again. There is no such thing as a tax that everyone doesn't pay in some way. Because when
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you increase taxes in one part of the economy, it affects every part of the economy. Because if
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somebody has higher costs because taxes eat up into their profits, they're going to have to
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increase prices because people don't live on, like people don't live for free. They must increase
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prices if you put a carbon tax on their industry. If you put an industrial carbon tax on oil and gas
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companies directly or manufacturers or whatever, or farmers, prices will go up. Just because the
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consumer carbon tax is gone doesn't change anything. Anyways, as long as you are still
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levying tax. And the thing is, again, it's not a frivolous comparison to say that nothing's changing.
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Mark Carney's working with Team Trudeau. Do you think that they are going to let him change any of
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the policies? It's like Kamala Harris replacing Joe Biden. They wouldn't let Kamala Harris run against
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any of Joe Biden's policies because screw you. I brought you here. You're not going to suddenly
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start saying that I'm a stupid old man and I don't agree with any of his policies. You're here because
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of me. And I think Trudeau and Katie Telford and Rob Silver are looking at Mark Carney and maybe not
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Trudeau because he's too drunk to be able to figure it out. But the rest of them are going to say,
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Gerald Butts, that we brought you here, Mark. You're going to do what we say. You're not walking away from
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the liberal agenda. Plus, Mark is more radical than these people. There's a reason why we have
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clips of him saying radical things about the climate on UN panels. He's in favor of a carbon
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tax tariff, central bank digital currencies. The man has backed increasing capital gains inclusion
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rates. The man has backed UBI. He's a nutcase. And also, he's been the economic advisor for four
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years. He's the type of guy who endorses stupid policies like the HST, GST tax freeze. He thought
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that was a good one. And that should also tell you his political instincts suck. His speech, his
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winning acceptance speech was horrible in terms of the content was just kind of there. It was anti-American
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stuff. We're going to stand up and we're going to stand up strong. Wow. Really, Mark? We're not going
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to sit down weakly and hope for death. Regardless, he doesn't know how to lean into a word in a speech.
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I know this sounds minor. But when he's going to be up against Pierre Polyev in a debate and the man
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doesn't know how to lean into a word to get some oomph and some momentum, he's going to get clobbered.
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I would love to see it. I want to see Pierre Polyev beat this guy. But the man was like,
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and we need to like, and we're going to protect our economy and stand up to the Americans. And like
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anyone else, if they were delivering that speech at gunpoint and you had to do it well, you would
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have been like, and we're going to stand up to the Americans. He was like, and like, we're going to
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protect our economy and stand up to the Americans. And he just talks in pure robotic monotone at all
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times. And it's like, why did they think this was a good idea to have this guy's leader? Chrystia Freeland
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can put more emotion in her voice. And her voice sounds at times like a drive-through intercom.
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And she's still better. Again, they should have run Frank Bayless if they wanted to win.
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I'm a very orthodox conservative. Of course, I just want whoever is the most conservative person
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in the country to be the prime minister. But I will take whatever I can get. And if I was forced to vote
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in that liberal leadership, I would have voted Frank Bayless. And if I was a liberal advisor, I'd be
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like, why don't we run Frank Bayless? He's like a businessman. Is he corrupt? Sure. He's a liberal. Of course,
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he's corrupt. But at least he's an actual businessman where like Mark Carney's a fakey
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do businessman who like runs asset management companies and has massive amounts of money,
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mostly because of his connections to governments. So people invest in ventures he backs. But the
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guy's already shot himself directly in the foot so many times. Like he has like a high power scope on
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just to make sure he doesn't miss any inch of his foot shooting himself right now. Because the man
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jumpstarts his campaign on The Daily Show in New York City, moves his company from Canada to New York City,
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has been living in London for like 15 years, calling himself a European. Do you not think
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the conservatives are just taking all the old Michael Ignatieff ads from 2011, dusting them off,
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slapping on Mark Carney's face and running them again? This guy is going to get absolutely destroyed.
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And again, all the polls are already reconsolidating over and showing the conservative
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lead widening. Because the sugar high for the liberals is gone now. And now they actually have
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to put up with the fact that they have the most boring man on the planet running as their leader.
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John Turner was also not exactly a charismatic guy. The liberals and conservatives like fail or
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succeed off of the back of if is their leader compelling or not. Stephen Harper was probably
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the guy who broke the mold on this. He is not a particularly flashy leader. But he was up against
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Paul Martin, who was not particularly flashy either. And the liberal government had gotten
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pretty corrupt back then. It's not even close to the corruption today. But they had gotten worn out
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and tired. So Harper was able to win. But Harper was only able to get one majority term because the
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liberals and NDP really couldn't figure out a good leader. Jack Layton was splitting the liberals
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vote. And so Harper was able to eventually get a majority. But even Harper eventually lost because
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he's just not a fighter. You want someone who's a fighter. Paulio is a fighter. Mark Carney is not.
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Stephen Dion was not. Michael Ignatieff was not. And John Turner was not. When you run boring people
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as your party leader, you are going to get boring results. Aaron O'Toole did not do well because he is
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an uncompelling, unconservative man. I've said this before. Politics is a game of bases. You are trying
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to get your base out. That is 90% of politics. Political consultants and strategists and political
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campaign managers who tell you to tack to the middle are insane. You don't tack further to whatever
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your ideological wing is. But what you do is you deliver what your base wants and you deliver it very
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loudly and proudly because your base is always going to be the vast, vast majority of the people who
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show up and vote for you. The people who really like you. If you target swing voters too hard, you will
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lose. And Mark Carney is somebody who I don't think the base of the Liberal Party is in love with.
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And also no swing voters care about them. So they have like the worst of both worlds here.
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But anyways, that's pretty much it for me today. So Mark Carney wins with like 86% of the vote,
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apparently. Most of the people didn't even vote in the election. This is going to look bad. And I think
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that all the negative ads against Mark Carney have already written themselves and we are just waiting
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for the hits to start coming. By the way, other than the fact I want to remind you guys, hey,
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like this video, subscribe to the channel, leave a comment. I'm starting this new trend where I put
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some Nintendo Entertainment System game in the corner of my shot because I have like 100 of them
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because I'm like some nerdy collector. Today, I thought a very fitting title to put in the background
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was Deja Vu because we are having just a Deja Vu moment with Mark Carney replacing Justin Trudeau and it
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feeling like basically nothing changed. We have been here before. Anyways, so that's it for me today,