The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - March 10, 2025


Carney In, Trudeau Out, Nothing changes, Liberals will lose next election.


Episode Stats


Length

18 minutes

Words per minute

184.26816

Word count

3,478

Sentence count

270

Harmful content

Misogyny

2

sentences flagged

Hate speech

1

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

Wyatt Claypool breaks down the Liberal leadership race and why it was a complete waste of time and money. He also explains why Justin Trudeau is still going to lose the next election and why he should have been replaced by someone else.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
00:00:00.000 Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here. So Mark Carney is in, Justin Trudeau is out, nothing ever changes
00:00:07.500 in Canadian politics, and the Liberals are still going to lose the next federal election.
00:00:13.360 Man, the Liberals really thought they did something with this leadership race.
00:00:18.040 Swapping out Justin Trudeau for Mark Carney has done nothing for them. They are only right now
00:00:24.360 at the current support levels they had before they started trying to get rid of Justin Trudeau
00:00:29.360 as leader. So this has all been a practice in futility. They were at 28, 29% before they
00:00:36.020 started trying to oust Trudeau, and they are returning to 28 and 29%, except they blew a
00:00:42.360 bunch of money trying to raise Trudeau's profile over the last six months before finally giving up
00:00:47.840 and then just having a leadership race with some of the most boring people you've ever seen in your
00:00:52.660 entire life. Mark Carney, Chrystia Freeland, Karina Gould, Frank Bayless. They should have kept Chandra
00:00:59.120 Ari and Ruby Dahl around. At least that would have been exciting. But today I want to break down the
00:01:04.460 leadership result and then explain why this is not going to change anything in the next federal
00:01:10.100 election. But before I do that, guys, make sure to like this video, subscribe to the channel. I'm
00:01:15.300 trying to get to 100,000 subscribers by mid-December this year, or I owe all of my friends dinner. And also
00:01:22.360 leave a comment. Helps us in the algorithm. The question for the comments today is, do you think Mark Carney
00:01:28.080 has a chance of beating Pierre Polyev or even keeping the conservatives to a minority government?
00:01:33.640 But anyways, I just want to start off with this tweet I put out today, because I think it does
00:01:37.460 describe how pathetic the liberal leadership race was pretty succinctly. So 151,899 people
00:01:45.240 voted in the liberal leadership race. Remember, this is to choose the next prime minister of Canada,
00:01:52.420 a G7 country and 151,899 people voted. I noted saying, in the 2022 UCP leadership race, that is the
00:02:03.100 Alberta United Conservative Party leadership race, that was similarly truncated, 84,000 Albertans cast
00:02:10.440 ballots. That was a very tight leadership race, just like this one. And almost half, actually more than
00:02:17.120 half of people voted in the UCP race that voted in the liberal leadership race. And that is a province
00:02:23.240 of 4 million compared to a country of 4.3 or 43 million. That's insane. And then I said, in 2022 as
00:02:32.000 well, Pierre Polyev got 295,285 votes in the conservative federal leadership race. What? The liberals,
00:02:41.980 this leadership race is pathetic. And remember, UCP memberships for a one-year membership, the minimum
00:02:48.160 you need to be able to vote in a nomination or a leadership race is 10 bucks. Federal memberships,
00:02:55.140 $15. Liberal memberships for this federal leadership races, this race, $0. It was free. It's been free
00:03:03.140 actually since I believe like 2010 or something like that. How weren't they able to get more people to
00:03:09.780 vote? I thought Mark Carney was a super exciting candidate. I thought all these candidates were so
00:03:15.480 energetic and virile that people would run out their houses to vote for these people. And by the way,
00:03:21.460 you just had to vote online. There was an app to vote with. And based on how hard it was for people
00:03:29.020 to verify their identities and how some people just got outright rejected as members, because I remember
00:03:35.120 that they had said, they had announced proudly that they had 400,000 Liberal Party members who
00:03:41.340 can vote in the leadership. But then when I was watching the Liberal event, where a bunch of people
00:03:47.460 did some speeches, Jean Chrétien came up and basically talked for five years. Justin Trudeau
00:03:52.820 came up, sounding drunk, by the way. And I'm not just trying to be rude. He legitimately sounded drunk.
00:03:58.720 Some people said he was sick. And there was a little bit of a gravel in his voice. But just the way he was
00:04:03.740 talking like, hey, guys, it's so great to be here. He was actually kind of slurring his words. He must
00:04:09.860 have stolen Elizabeth May's NyQuil. But people talked forever. And at one point, I'm not sure if
00:04:16.040 it was Mark Carney or somebody else. It wasn't the president of the party. But somebody said there
00:04:20.700 were 300,000 Liberal members, more than 300,000 people who were eligible to vote in this leadership.
00:04:26.920 It's like, so you guys got rid of 100,000 members? That's a little bit sketchy. And you have to
00:04:34.200 realize in Canada, because the federal elections, like Watchdog, like because Elections Canada and
00:04:41.140 other provincial election boards don't oversee internal party races, a lot of internal party
00:04:47.180 elections from all parties, by the way, are as rigged as the country music charts. It's as rigged as the
00:04:54.260 WWE. These things are oftentimes just play acting. You know, there are parties that have far more
00:05:01.700 legitimate nominations than others. The conservatives tend to have far more legitimate nominations than
00:05:07.080 the liberals. The liberals appoint tend to their candidates. But it's a problem in every party
00:05:10.580 where they want a certain person, the party elites, and they just push everything towards them.
00:05:15.160 They will sign up as many fake members as possible to vote for them. It happens. It's disgusting. I hate
00:05:19.880 it. But this liberal leadership smelled so much like that, because I need to show you what the results
00:05:25.380 were. And it's just absurd what the margins were here. I knew that Mark Carney was going to win.
00:05:33.320 But did you guys expect this, that he was going to win with 85.9% of the vote? Chris G. Furlan got
00:05:39.760 8%. Karina Gould got 3.2%. And Frank Bayless got 3. Like, really? 85%? And I don't believe you that
00:05:50.040 he got 85%. Maybe it's perfectly legitimate. But like, maybe he got 85.9% because of all like the
00:05:56.240 media coverage and whatnot. But my goodness, there was such low voter turnout. 151 people voted,
00:06:02.940 despite there being, let's say, even just say 300,000 members. So they barely got over half. And if we
00:06:08.320 take into account the $400,000, the $400,000 number that they had previously stated, this is like 38%
00:06:15.880 turnout. This is abysmal. You actually only had 40% of your party vote. And that means like 0.23 or
00:06:25.320 like 0.38% of Canadians voted to determine who the next prime minister was going to be. That's pathetic.
00:06:33.720 And it's an unelected prime minister now. We are repeating history. Pierre Elliott Trudeau,
00:06:38.320 steps out of office after becoming very unpopular. And he is replaced by John Turner as prime minister,
00:06:43.740 who wasn't even a member of parliament at the time. And he gets clobbered. And now Trudeau Jr.
00:06:49.340 is stepping down. And he is being replaced by Mark Carney, a man who is not a member of parliament,
00:06:54.780 but is about to become the prime minister of this country. Absolutely wacky. And again, I think they
00:07:02.100 know that they've messed up here. At one point, they proudly said, this is our best first quarter
00:07:07.740 fundraising ever. And it's like, yeah, because nobody was giving you guys money for like the past
00:07:13.160 five years because they hate you. And quarter one fundraising is also like typically your lowest
00:07:19.500 quarter because your fourth quarter with the holidays is the best quarter usually. And you had
00:07:25.200 a leadership race in the first quarter. Of course, it was going to be your best quarter. But that's all they
00:07:30.280 have now. It wasn't their best quarter ever. It was far from their best quarter ever, even though
00:07:34.620 the population of the country keeps going up massively and they have way more people they can
00:07:38.440 work with to get donations from. Nobody's donating. These people are still getting absolutely smashed
00:07:43.960 by pure poly of when it comes to fundraising. I think it's been like Mark Carney's raised like 3.1
00:07:51.680 million, which is a good amount of money to raise. I think like Leslie Lewis actually fundraised about
00:07:57.320 that much in the leadership race in 22. And I know you can say, well, that leadership race went
00:08:02.660 on longer. The problem with that argument is that it's still a leadership race within one year and
00:08:08.080 people can only donate so much. And so a shorter leadership race doesn't exactly mean you're going
00:08:14.300 to get a proportionally smaller amount of money compared to the length of the race, because most
00:08:19.400 people who will donate will donate at some point in the race and people who don't donate don't donate.
00:08:23.800 Uh, pure poly have literally raised like triple in his leadership race. What maybe not quite that
00:08:30.680 much, but like he raised like probably double what every single liberal leadership candidate raised
00:08:35.500 combined. That's how bad this is. And now I want to show you the Halifax numbers or maybe I'll move
00:08:42.740 on to one other thing. This is really funny when this is their picture of strength in the aftermath.
00:08:48.000 Canada strong. And you have Mark Carney there looking like Mr. Burns, who's been AI'd. He's just
00:08:57.180 not a good candidate. And this is the problem for the liberals. They are running a bad candidate for
00:09:02.940 the prime minister slot. This is the Halifax numbers because this is the by-election that we're going to
00:09:07.560 have in April that the liberals are clearly using as a litmus test. Already the NDP is backing them
00:09:13.000 saying that they're not going to vote no confidence. This riding, let's go back to the 2021 and 2019
00:09:18.440 numbers. The liberals have consistently got in both elections 42% of the vote. This is in fact a
00:09:25.060 riding that it's mostly competitive between the liberals and the NDP. The conservatives are actually
00:09:30.420 a pure afterthought here. In fact, the conservatives came fourth place in 2019 behind the greens.
00:09:35.640 In 2021, they got 12%. Right now, they are showing the conservatives still up on the 338 projections
00:09:42.380 that they're projecting they get 17% today. I think because the 338 number is being weighed down
00:09:51.060 by bad polls like Frank Graves' poll at ECOS and other pollsters that are showing, oh, the liberals
00:09:56.260 are suddenly ahead. No, they're not. That's called a response bias. It's because a lot of liberals are
00:10:00.840 taking polls disproportionate to their actual support among the Canadian general population.
00:10:06.480 Most pollsters are not intentionally trying to have bad poll results. I think they're just not
00:10:10.420 properly correcting for it. A few of them, like Frank Graves, he's not even trying. He just hates
00:10:15.180 the conservatives. Let me put the photo back up. He has literally posted that he just wants to see
00:10:20.480 Pierre Polyev lose. Here's Frank Graves from back in 2022 saying, a real conservative option
00:10:26.580 is a healthy counterbalance and a healthy democracy. Pierre Polyev is an acolyte of authoritarian
00:10:31.780 populism. This is never healthy. You are on notice. Going to make sure you are never going to lead my
00:10:37.600 country. I don't make idle threats. And then he deleted that, which kind of does make it seem like
00:10:41.880 he might make idle threats. But who knows? Regardless, though, once you clear out those polls from the
00:10:49.460 general 338 metrics, I actually think that Halifax has the ability to probably go 23, 24, 25%
00:10:58.800 conservative. That's not going to get them the win. Far from it. It could end up making sure that the
00:11:04.140 NDP wins if they trip up the liberals enough. But regardless, if the conservatives get a quarter of
00:11:09.560 people in a riding like Halifax to vote conservative, that means most of Nova Scotia is probably going to
00:11:14.000 go conservative. That means New Brunswick's probably conservative. That means Newfoundland's
00:11:17.380 probably conservative. They might even grab a seat in PEI. That's the problem for the liberals.
00:11:23.440 Nothing that they've done has changed anything. That is why I said nothing changes in the title
00:11:27.580 of this video and I said at the start. Mark Carney's policies are Trudeau's policies. And it's not like
00:11:32.220 a frivolous way that they're kind of similar people, so I assume they have the same policies.
00:11:36.280 Mark Carney can say all day he wants to get rid of the carbon tax now. What is he going to do?
00:11:39.880 Replace it with an industrial carbon tax? It's the same thing. I've said it before and I'll say it
00:11:45.700 again. There is no such thing as a tax that everyone doesn't pay in some way. Because when
00:11:51.360 you increase taxes in one part of the economy, it affects every part of the economy. Because if
00:11:57.060 somebody has higher costs because taxes eat up into their profits, they're going to have to 0.99
00:12:01.780 increase prices because people don't live on, like people don't live for free. They must increase
00:12:07.320 prices if you put a carbon tax on their industry. If you put an industrial carbon tax on oil and gas
00:12:13.960 companies directly or manufacturers or whatever, or farmers, prices will go up. Just because the
00:12:19.400 consumer carbon tax is gone doesn't change anything. Anyways, as long as you are still
00:12:24.540 levying tax. And the thing is, again, it's not a frivolous comparison to say that nothing's changing.
00:12:29.620 Mark Carney's working with Team Trudeau. Do you think that they are going to let him change any of
00:12:34.000 the policies? It's like Kamala Harris replacing Joe Biden. They wouldn't let Kamala Harris run against 1.00
00:12:39.540 any of Joe Biden's policies because screw you. I brought you here. You're not going to suddenly
00:12:44.660 start saying that I'm a stupid old man and I don't agree with any of his policies. You're here because
00:12:49.200 of me. And I think Trudeau and Katie Telford and Rob Silver are looking at Mark Carney and maybe not
00:12:55.560 Trudeau because he's too drunk to be able to figure it out. But the rest of them are going to say,
00:12:59.880 Gerald Butts, that we brought you here, Mark. You're going to do what we say. You're not walking away from
00:13:05.040 the liberal agenda. Plus, Mark is more radical than these people. There's a reason why we have
00:13:10.420 clips of him saying radical things about the climate on UN panels. He's in favor of a carbon
00:13:16.160 tax tariff, central bank digital currencies. The man has backed increasing capital gains inclusion
00:13:23.380 rates. The man has backed UBI. He's a nutcase. And also, he's been the economic advisor for four
00:13:30.640 years. He's the type of guy who endorses stupid policies like the HST, GST tax freeze. He thought
00:13:36.100 that was a good one. And that should also tell you his political instincts suck. His speech, his
00:13:41.680 winning acceptance speech was horrible in terms of the content was just kind of there. It was anti-American
00:13:49.160 stuff. We're going to stand up and we're going to stand up strong. Wow. Really, Mark? We're not going
00:13:53.480 to sit down weakly and hope for death. Regardless, he doesn't know how to lean into a word in a speech.
00:14:01.360 I know this sounds minor. But when he's going to be up against Pierre Polyev in a debate and the man
00:14:07.040 doesn't know how to lean into a word to get some oomph and some momentum, he's going to get clobbered.
00:14:12.320 I would love to see it. I want to see Pierre Polyev beat this guy. But the man was like,
00:14:18.060 and we need to like, and we're going to protect our economy and stand up to the Americans. And like
00:14:23.800 anyone else, if they were delivering that speech at gunpoint and you had to do it well, you would
00:14:27.940 have been like, and we're going to stand up to the Americans. He was like, and like, we're going to
00:14:32.880 protect our economy and stand up to the Americans. And he just talks in pure robotic monotone at all
00:14:39.940 times. And it's like, why did they think this was a good idea to have this guy's leader? Chrystia Freeland
00:14:45.340 can put more emotion in her voice. And her voice sounds at times like a drive-through intercom.
00:14:51.840 And she's still better. Again, they should have run Frank Bayless if they wanted to win.
00:14:56.280 I'm a very orthodox conservative. Of course, I just want whoever is the most conservative person
00:15:00.420 in the country to be the prime minister. But I will take whatever I can get. And if I was forced to vote
00:15:05.780 in that liberal leadership, I would have voted Frank Bayless. And if I was a liberal advisor, I'd be
00:15:09.600 like, why don't we run Frank Bayless? He's like a businessman. Is he corrupt? Sure. He's a liberal. Of course,
00:15:14.320 he's corrupt. But at least he's an actual businessman where like Mark Carney's a fakey
00:15:18.140 do businessman who like runs asset management companies and has massive amounts of money,
00:15:22.620 mostly because of his connections to governments. So people invest in ventures he backs. But the
00:15:27.420 guy's already shot himself directly in the foot so many times. Like he has like a high power scope on
00:15:32.780 just to make sure he doesn't miss any inch of his foot shooting himself right now. Because the man
00:15:38.500 jumpstarts his campaign on The Daily Show in New York City, moves his company from Canada to New York City,
00:15:44.320 has been living in London for like 15 years, calling himself a European. Do you not think 0.99
00:15:49.100 the conservatives are just taking all the old Michael Ignatieff ads from 2011, dusting them off,
00:15:54.220 slapping on Mark Carney's face and running them again? This guy is going to get absolutely destroyed.
00:16:00.280 And again, all the polls are already reconsolidating over and showing the conservative
00:16:03.720 lead widening. Because the sugar high for the liberals is gone now. And now they actually have
00:16:09.140 to put up with the fact that they have the most boring man on the planet running as their leader.
00:16:14.380 John Turner was also not exactly a charismatic guy. The liberals and conservatives like fail or
00:16:21.260 succeed off of the back of if is their leader compelling or not. Stephen Harper was probably
00:16:27.680 the guy who broke the mold on this. He is not a particularly flashy leader. But he was up against
00:16:32.940 Paul Martin, who was not particularly flashy either. And the liberal government had gotten
00:16:37.740 pretty corrupt back then. It's not even close to the corruption today. But they had gotten worn out
00:16:41.800 and tired. So Harper was able to win. But Harper was only able to get one majority term because the
00:16:47.580 liberals and NDP really couldn't figure out a good leader. Jack Layton was splitting the liberals
00:16:51.940 vote. And so Harper was able to eventually get a majority. But even Harper eventually lost because
00:16:56.180 he's just not a fighter. You want someone who's a fighter. Paulio is a fighter. Mark Carney is not.
00:17:00.840 Stephen Dion was not. Michael Ignatieff was not. And John Turner was not. When you run boring people
00:17:07.040 as your party leader, you are going to get boring results. Aaron O'Toole did not do well because he is
00:17:12.360 an uncompelling, unconservative man. I've said this before. Politics is a game of bases. You are trying
00:17:20.640 to get your base out. That is 90% of politics. Political consultants and strategists and political
00:17:27.900 campaign managers who tell you to tack to the middle are insane. You don't tack further to whatever
00:17:33.900 your ideological wing is. But what you do is you deliver what your base wants and you deliver it very
00:17:39.320 loudly and proudly because your base is always going to be the vast, vast majority of the people who
00:17:44.480 show up and vote for you. The people who really like you. If you target swing voters too hard, you will
00:17:49.360 lose. And Mark Carney is somebody who I don't think the base of the Liberal Party is in love with.
00:17:54.660 And also no swing voters care about them. So they have like the worst of both worlds here.
00:17:59.760 But anyways, that's pretty much it for me today. So Mark Carney wins with like 86% of the vote,
00:18:07.020 apparently. Most of the people didn't even vote in the election. This is going to look bad. And I think
00:18:13.780 that all the negative ads against Mark Carney have already written themselves and we are just waiting
00:18:18.100 for the hits to start coming. By the way, other than the fact I want to remind you guys, hey,
00:18:23.060 like this video, subscribe to the channel, leave a comment. I'm starting this new trend where I put
00:18:27.420 some Nintendo Entertainment System game in the corner of my shot because I have like 100 of them
00:18:32.600 because I'm like some nerdy collector. Today, I thought a very fitting title to put in the background
00:18:38.180 was Deja Vu because we are having just a Deja Vu moment with Mark Carney replacing Justin Trudeau and it
00:18:45.460 feeling like basically nothing changed. We have been here before. Anyways, so that's it for me today,
00:18:51.240 guys. See you later.