00:04:17.500And needless to say, while we aren't seeing a lot of green arrows in these numbers.
00:04:21.620No, no, no. There's not no green arrows. We're not seeing a lot of them.
00:04:25.540there are no green arrows year over year we're still down it's not like we had a really good
00:04:33.960boom period for six months and now it contracted but overall over the last year we're still up
00:04:38.420now it's not like we're down three or four percent we're actually only down like
00:04:42.060six hundredths of a percentage point but the problem with that is that inflation has happened
00:04:47.960the population has increased a bit i think we technically decreased population a little bit
00:04:53.080in 2025. But the problem is that there's no other metrics that are making us look good.
00:04:58.460Yes, it's not the biggest decline ever. It's a very small decline. But no healthy G7 country
00:05:03.840should be declining, especially when we have a Goldman Sachs man, the former governor of the
00:05:09.340Bank of Canada, the former governor of the Bank of England, a man who was the chair of Brookfield
00:05:13.460Asset Management. How is this guy leading a decline? And by the way, Mark Carney's holding
00:05:18.860this economy together with like duct tape and bubble gum, because the only reason that our
00:05:23.460decline isn't bigger than like than six one hundredths of a percent is because we keep
00:05:29.680throwing money at the problem. In fact, the liberals are basically saying we can sort this
00:05:33.500out by getting more money out the door from the government. That's not real growth. That's simply
00:05:37.720government subsidizing like industries that are not healthy or just spending on the military,
00:05:43.080which doesn't actually help the overall economy. We need to spend more on the military,
00:05:46.960but don't rest on that as like the thing that's going to get us out. And if we look at any other
00:05:51.740metric, so the last three out of four quarters have been declining quarters. The only quarter
00:05:57.620that was positive was the third quarter of 2025. Second quarter was also down. And then the last
00:06:03.180two ones of first and second quarter of, or the fourth quarter of 25 and the first quarter of 26
00:06:09.080have been declines too. But unemployment is bad. We lost 120,000 jobs net since the year started.
00:06:16.960again, default rates are going up. People being foreclosed on their homes are going up. So what
00:06:23.980is the green arrows that this guy's talking about? None, but we'll just kind of insinuate that there
00:06:29.180might be good stuff out there, but he can't explain it. Month to month. And needless to say,
00:06:33.380while we aren't seeing a lot of green arrows in these numbers, by some definitions, this is a
00:06:37.920technical recession. By some definitions, it's not, but there is not a lot of growth happening
00:06:43.800here we are seeing no no not there's not it's not that there's not a lot of growth there's negative
00:06:50.000growth it's declining some shrinking in the gdp the gross domestic product that's one of the ways
00:06:57.940that we measure how big the economy is to put it simply there and it declined at an annualized rate
00:07:03.900year over year by 0.1 percent in the first quarter so this is small according to stats canada but it
00:07:10.840is present. And it's not anything that economists wanted to see or expected to see, David.
00:07:17.160And that, I think, is the key thing that, yes, the economy has been buffeted by tariffs and war
00:07:21.720and and and and there's been so much. And yet, as you know, this was not predicted. They thought
00:07:28.300there would be just narrow growth. Yeah, well, we actually they predicted one point five percent
00:07:33.820growth in this first quarter of 25 and it went down by like 0.025 or so so yeah it's bad I don't
00:07:44.300know how they can get away from this they keep the CBC's already trying to make the excuses
00:07:48.600of saying well there's tariffs and there's wars and all there's everything's on computers and in
00:07:54.440metric right now it's so complicated you know we can't blame Carney and the liberals because it's
00:07:59.460so complicated out there people it's like well then why are the other g7 countries the other six
00:08:05.180of them not experiencing two quarters of decline their numbers come out around the same time why
00:08:11.280aren't we hearing about why aren't we hearing bad news coming out of japan why aren't we hearing bad
00:08:16.020news coming out of germany or especially the united states the united states all by the way
00:08:20.780it's not like the tariffs are good the tariffs are bad for everybody but it demonstrates everyone's
00:08:25.300suffering from the general same problems. Why are we suffering worse? Because Carney is not an
00:08:30.500actual businessman. He's a fake businessman. He engages in fake business. At Brookfield Asset0.94
00:08:35.880Management, they do mountains of fake business. They invest in areas heavily subsidized by the
00:08:41.480government, where there's lots of grants, where there's lots of tax breaks, where the government
00:08:45.120has a lot of contracts. That's what Brookfield Asset Management does. It sits with an open mouth
00:08:49.560at the end of a spigot and has the government pour money into its mouth, despite the fact that
00:08:53.560they're not doing anything particularly useful. If you're building, like, you know, clean green
00:08:58.900energy plants and battery plants that the government's basically ensuring that you profit
00:09:03.460on, obviously you're going to do well. You're unable to fail in that industry because of the
00:09:09.240government largesse being given to you. Anyway, so now we wonder why are we failing? Because we
00:09:15.100have a prime minister who only knows how to run a business on subsidies, and now he's the guy
00:09:18.960handing out subsidies, and it turns out you can't subsidize an economy into success.
00:09:22.780Woke up this morning, we were thinking there might be some small growth, and then we get these numbers, and it's smaller, smaller, smaller, red.
00:09:30.500So it had a few of us in a bit of a flap this morning, crunching some numbers and pulling up spreadsheets.
00:09:35.680You know, the last time Canada was in a technical recession was during the start of the pandemic back in 2020.
00:09:40.980We are seeing economists already react to these numbers, though, by pointing out that while the economy is sluggish, you know, there's kind of a bleh vibe to everything.
00:09:49.040because slight not sluggish sluggish it could imply forward momentum but just slow no backwards
00:09:55.560momentum slow backwards momentum yeah it's not like 30 percent of the economy was wiped out
00:10:00.240obviously no but it's backwards but they keep using language implying that well we're still
00:10:04.820chugging along it's like no we're going backwards we need to train moving in the other direction
00:10:09.360as if tariffs and energy prices dragging things down this technical recession if it happened may
00:10:16.000be over by some measures or may just not be as big a deal as it sounds because oil and gas prices
00:10:21.500have gone up so much and that does inject money into the Canadian economy, David. So now we're
00:10:27.760going to rely on high gas prices to get ourselves out of the technical recession. Again, we're
00:10:36.020either in a recession or we're not. I've looked up even the CB Howe Institute's own definition
00:10:41.740doesn't even require two straight uh quarters of of decline you can technically be increasing
00:10:47.860but still be in a recession if all of the actual metrics of health are not good like again
00:10:53.780unemployment shooting up defaulting on debts shooting up people foreclosing on homes all
00:10:59.400these different things can be metrics of a recession yet you can even be increasing your
00:11:05.420gdp simply because the government's injecting money but the gut but the economy isn't healthy
00:11:10.760The economy isn't having organic growth. It's having government subsidized either quote unquote growth or just maintaining what we have. That's the problem we're currently in. But now let's get to this other CBC segment that's very funny because of all the excuse making that goes on in it.
00:11:28.540We're going to have the CBC panel tell us why. Actually, if you think about it, this makes Pierre Paulyev look bad, at least according to, I think it's Greg McEachern, who is a liberal shill on their panel.
00:11:41.780Our party insiders are here. Greg McEachern is a former liberal ministerial advisor. Fred Delori is a former conservative campaign manager. Melanie Richie is a former communications director for the NDP.
00:11:53.620Greg, let's start with you and the economy.
00:12:32.120And having lived through a couple of recessions, yeah, absolutely not good news.
00:12:38.160The response today from folks like Desjardins and other places,
00:12:42.840and the interviews you've done thus far, leading off,
00:12:46.160Peter Armstrong talked about what a surprise this was.
00:12:49.360That's not always a good sign. So you can't, even though I think the folks at finance are saying, you know, there are good things coming. Yeah, it's never a good sign. I think, though, if we're going to speak politically in addressing the clip that you showed of the leader of the opposition.
00:13:03.320We're now having the big butt pivot. Greg McEachern is making a wide turn over a four-lane highway to try and make this about federal Conservative Party leader Pierre Polyev, I guess, smiling too much at a press conference.
00:13:20.040And maybe my theme today will be communications,
00:13:22.380but they put out a media advisory to you and the rest of the press gallery
00:13:26.680that said it was a full-blown recession.
00:13:28.540So a month ago, if you were the leader of the Conservatives
00:13:32.180and you said what he said about Mark Carney, that he was badly educated,
00:13:35.620there was a huge blowback on that from a lot of his own folks.
00:13:38.800So today, you start off by saying that this is a full-blown recession when it's not.