The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - March 06, 2026


Carney is WEAK if he can be defeated by Pierre on Trade!


Episode Stats

Length

15 minutes

Words per Minute

186.56857

Word Count

2,967

Sentence Count

204

Misogynist Sentences

1

Hate Speech Sentences

6


Summary

In this video, I explain why the Tories have shifted their messaging on the trade issue, and why it could be the key to unseat Prime Minister Mark Carney in the upcoming election. I break down the numbers behind the change in messaging, and how it could have a major impact on the outcome of the election.


Transcript

00:00:00.000 Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here, and welcome back to the National Telegraph YouTube channel.
00:00:05.860 I just wanted to make a quick video that kind of explains why Pierre Polyev and the Conservatives
00:00:12.020 have recently made a shift in their messaging on the canned U.S. trade issue. I think the
00:00:18.200 Conservatives know that this is the key issue to unraveling Mark Carney's popularity right now.
00:00:24.720 Carney and the Liberals are objectively leading the Conservatives in the polls.
00:00:28.860 Now, don't believe like Leger or Liaison showing like a 12 to 14 percent lead for the Liberals.
00:00:35.880 I think we can all walk around our own neighborhoods. We know people in our own lives.
00:00:39.800 We haven't heard a lot of people shifting towards Carney recently. Now, the Carney Liberals do have
00:00:45.540 a messaging advantage, and that's because Donald Trump is in the headlines recently. It ticks off
00:00:51.180 a bunch of Canadians, and partially it moves people towards the Liberals a little bit.
00:00:56.200 What I think really happens is a response bias happens, where more Liberals are picking up the
00:01:01.540 phone and taking polls because Trump ticks them off, whereas Conservatives, because the Conservative
00:01:06.620 Party has been in a bit of messaging limbo, are just not as motivated to actually get on the phone
00:01:12.040 or answer an online poll telling pollsters what they think. Now, response bias is still, I guess,
00:01:19.560 what you'd call somewhat real, in the sense if you're more willing to pick up the phone, maybe you're
00:01:23.940 more willing to vote. So, do not discount that the Liberals are ahead. I think they're ahead anywhere
00:01:28.800 from 5 percent to 9 percent at the most. That would still give the Liberals a big majority. Again,
00:01:35.440 that's not a small lead. It's just not this gargantuan 14-point lead that's absolutely insane.
00:01:40.940 But the poly of Conservatives are going to try and chip away at Mark Carney on this trade issue
00:01:47.260 for the exact reason that I'm going to show you the chart in just a second here. It's an issue that
00:01:53.480 the Carney Liberals do very well on. It's a keystone issue for them, but they're also vulnerable. If you
00:01:59.840 start to steal the middle voters on this issue away from them, they're going to have to shift over to
00:02:04.480 other things, and they're not good on other things at all. So, before I get into the numbers, I just
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00:02:45.780 it every once in a while when YouTube just decides it's not going to share my content anywhere.
00:02:49.860 It's like if a TV station just lost all of its providers except people who still have like,
00:02:55.040 you know, their rabbit ear antennas or whatever. It's obnoxious. Anyway, so here is the numbers
00:03:00.520 from abacus data that I think will prove my point here. They asked people, this is the question,
00:03:06.420 overall, do you think Prime Minister Mark Carney is doing a good job, an okay job, or a poor job in
00:03:12.460 managing his relationship with President Trump? Now, the results here show that 16% of respondents
00:03:20.480 said he's doing a very good job, 26% say good job, 24% say okay job, 11% say poor job, 19% say very poor,
00:03:29.420 and only 4% don't know. This is a big issue for people, and you can tell because there are not
00:03:34.540 a lot of people undecided on it. 4% is nothing. It's basically around a year. People have strong
00:03:40.800 opinions on this, or at the very least, they have well-developed opinions. The key demographic here,
00:03:48.320 the key number is 24% saying he's doing an okay job. That probably means, you know, they think he's
00:03:56.360 managing his affair as well. He's being standoffish with Trump, which maybe they like. That's the
00:04:01.600 thing with the Liberal Party. It actually benefits Mark Carney to not sign a deal with Trump, because
00:04:06.900 there's so many TDS, Trump derangement syndrome voters in his coalition, they might actually get
00:04:12.420 mad at him if he signs a deal. But I would say two-thirds are Trump derangement syndrome voters.
00:04:18.620 One-third are business liberals who, doesn't matter what they think about Trump,
00:04:22.700 they know Canada needs a deal. That doesn't mean the other two-thirds don't also want a deal in
00:04:28.300 theory, but they hate Trump so much, they pretty much, like, if there's any idea that he had to
00:04:34.880 concede anything to Trump, they're going to be very annoyed. That's why you see only 17% of liberals
00:04:40.320 being willing to admit that Trump striking Iran and Islamic theocracy killing tens of thousands of
00:04:46.580 people is a good thing. It's just that's how bad the TDS is over there. But here we have 24% of
00:04:54.660 people saying he's doing an okay job only. This is a group who probably wants to see a deal get signed,
00:05:01.520 and if a deal's not getting signed, well, they're subject to changing their opinion and think he's
00:05:06.520 doing a poor job. So right now, you have Carney leading on this issue by 12%, but that's only
00:05:12.620 because there are 24% of people who are neutral in the middle. Now, remember, for Carney, good job
00:05:19.340 just means that they think he's doing a good job. That doesn't mean they're liberal voters. Those
00:05:23.280 people could be NDP voters. They could be Greens. They could be Block. Those three parties are more
00:05:29.620 likely to think he's doing a good job than not a good job, and the people saying poor job are pretty
00:05:34.640 much all conservatives. But if those 24% of people thinking okay job move to poor job, that's going to
00:05:40.440 empower the NDP and the conservatives and all of the other parties. 16% are pretty much all the very
00:05:47.220 good job people. Those are like the liberal supporters, maybe, and a couple of NDP, Block,
00:05:52.300 and Green supporters. The good jobs are NDP, a lot of liberals, and others. But the okay job people
00:05:59.400 are the people who probably don't normally vote liberal, but they did last election. Maybe they could
00:06:05.880 be conservatives too, but you get the point I'm trying to make here is that Carney basically on
00:06:12.420 this issue that's a very good issue for him. He gets to posture against Trump all the time
00:06:16.640 on the issue of trade. If Polyev pushes him that he has to get a deal done by basically offering him
00:06:23.880 all this help, because that's Polyev's play right now. It's very smart. He's giving every option to
00:06:30.000 Kearney. All of these great ideas. How about we unify against communist China and we rip up our EV
00:06:35.820 deal and then we have a zero tariff relationship on vehicles. We can basically sign a Kanzuk deal and
00:06:42.160 cut China out of it and then use that Kanzuk deal, which is canned Australia, New Zealand,
00:06:49.540 the Commonwealth countries banding together. Then that Kanzuk coalition can then negotiate with more
00:06:54.500 strength against the United States. Polyev is coming up with all these very, very, very good
00:07:00.400 ideas. And Carney, because he can't sign a deal with Trump because he doesn't want the conservatives
00:07:05.600 help her look pathetic. And a lot of his people don't want the deal to get signed. He is going to
00:07:11.000 start hurting himself with those okay people. And if Mark Carney is beat on this issue, if he, if this
00:07:17.420 starts being a contentious, controversial issue for him, that's bad because the other issues currently in
00:07:23.580 the news are not great for Carney. You can't really name an issue that Carney does really well on like
00:07:29.360 healthcare. I don't know. The budget's terrible. Public safety, immigration, he's done some decent
00:07:36.740 reforms on. It's still not enough. And I don't think the people voting liberal really care about that
00:07:42.160 issue that much. So in terms of, in terms of retaining the voters he had last time, he's not really,
00:07:49.840 it's the trade issue. It's the anti-Trump thing that's keeping them there. Just look at this one.
00:07:55.280 Breaking. Prime Minister Carney says Canada won't rule out joining US in military action against Iran.
00:08:01.200 Follow for live updates. This has been developing. I actually think at one point he even committed to
00:08:06.140 like potentially sending troops to Iran. He started off congratulating Trump and Israel, the Americans in
00:08:13.820 Israel for going in and hitting the Iranian regime. Rightfully so, he congratulated them, gave them some
00:08:19.200 kudos because they're killing their own people. It's a terror. It's the biggest state sponsor of
00:08:24.760 terrorism in the world. The Iranian regime is awful. Carney took the right position early.
00:08:29.960 And then a couple of days later, he then reversed his position and then said, oh, actually, Israel and
00:08:36.660 America are violating international law. And this is so terrible. And they should have gotten UN sign off
00:08:41.580 on this, even though Iranian allies are on the UN Security Council and the UN Security Council and
00:08:47.720 international law don't mean anything anyways. So he then took that position. And now he has leapfrogged
00:08:52.300 back to saying that he might join them for military action against Iran. Because Carney doesn't know what
00:08:57.600 he's doing off of the trade issue. He's terrible on foreign policy. I actually think on certain foreign
00:09:03.580 policy issues, he's okay. But in a general sense, he's really bad, especially when the United States is
00:09:09.180 involved. He's doing a fine job on India. He's not too bad on that issue. But when it comes to Maduro,
00:09:15.400 he messed that one up terribly. And that's why I think he corrected on the Iran issue. But then
00:09:20.900 because there was a lot of Canadians super pissed off at Trump recently, then he flip-flopped and then
00:09:26.020 he flip-flopped again. Get this guy onto a different issue he's not comfortable with. And this is where
00:09:31.460 I'm calling on the conservatives. You need to take your new stance on trade, which is very good,
00:09:36.600 giving as much advice to Mark Carney knowing he will take none of it. Take that position and apply
00:09:42.220 it to other issues. Know what? Be like Dallas Brody and 1BC in British Columbia. Take really
00:09:49.120 bold stances on controversial issues and force your opponent to basically change or completely get
00:09:56.020 wiped out in a referendum-style election. That's what 1BC is doing right now in British Columbia
00:10:01.980 on the issue of DRIPA and SOGI. The other parties are too scared to deal with those issues head on.
00:10:07.640 So 1BC, by taking a bold position on it, which at the start seemed too harsh, too controversial,
00:10:14.500 is slowly becoming the majority opinion because the biggest benefits in politics are taking on an issue
00:10:20.380 where initially you're losing and then changing everyone's minds. And I think Polyev could do that
00:10:25.860 on things. He should run hard against these land deals because it's now become a federal issue
00:10:30.560 after Mark Carney and the Liberals signed that insane Musqueam deal that basically put Aboriginal
00:10:36.200 land title over the entire Lower Mainland. That's a good one for him. Run on a massive tax cut.
00:10:43.960 20%, even just 15 maybe. I think there needs to be a 2 in front of it. But 20, 15% across the board.
00:10:51.560 Every bracket goes down. That's every income bracket. That's corporate. That's taking a couple points,
00:10:58.160 one or two points off the GST. Just do it. Don't sit there and tell yourself, well, that'll make
00:11:03.800 balancing the budget tougher. One, it won't because, in fact, it'll actually increase revenues because
00:11:09.340 we'll stop disincentivizing people from working harder or expanding their businesses, or we won't
00:11:14.120 be pushing as much investment into the U.S. But also, I could deal with another deficit or two as long
00:11:20.540 as people are getting their money back. Step one is making the economy function again, and that's giving
00:11:25.320 people their money back. Run on heavy deregulation. Run on healthcare reform. Heck, run on the death
00:11:31.320 penalty for serial killers and mass murderers. If the Tumlar Ridge shooter had lived, we should have
00:11:38.120 executed him if we could. That would be good. Do stuff like that. It's good to be controversial
00:11:44.160 because controversy means it's an issue you'll get attention on. Paulyov got some attention on this
00:11:49.420 Canada-U.S. issue. Now he needs to find just a big whale of an issue that he can keep striking at.
00:11:56.580 The industrial carbon tax is not going to do it. In a certain sense, Paulyov has never had to properly
00:12:02.060 define himself as a politician, and I'm not slagging him for that. It's just when he won the leadership of
00:12:08.380 the Conservative Party back in 22, he didn't really have to define himself, and in fact, I don't think it
00:12:13.880 was possible to define himself because all people wanted to know was he wasn't Justin Trudeau. He could have
00:12:19.220 released an entire documentary about who he is and where he's come from, and he could have been the
00:12:24.400 most interesting man on the planet. No one would have paid attention to a single thing about the man
00:12:28.560 because all they wanted to hear was, you're not Justin Trudeau? Perfect. And now Paulyov, I think,
00:12:33.580 needs to kind of redefine himself as a different type of fighter because he is the Trudeau slayer.
00:12:39.720 He's not the carny slayer, and I don't think that Canadians are looking for the carny slayer.
00:12:44.120 They are looking for the guy who is going to win on affordability, win on trade, win on foreign
00:12:50.560 policy, and I think that you need to recast yourself as a winner by taking on hard fights
00:12:55.180 and winning them. This is a random thing. I also want to say, Paulyov, I don't think,
00:13:01.460 this is going to sound so weird. It's like back when I made that video where I was criticizing
00:13:05.360 different politicians' fashions. I do still stand by. I think Paulyov needs to soften his haircut.
00:13:10.200 Don't slick it back too much. It's too shiny. Paulyov has to not try and come off as so cool.
00:13:16.640 Now, that sounds so strange for me to say, but he recently did a podcast with a personal trainer
00:13:21.380 about his workout routine and all this stuff and why working out is important.
00:13:26.600 The problem for Paulyov is that he's actually a fit guy. He's a good-looking fit guy, and no one
00:13:33.640 wants to hear about how fit you are. It's kind of one of those things that's counterintuitive.
00:13:37.620 Mark Carney could do a video of him pumping iron in the gym because we'd all look at them like,
00:13:43.180 oh, good for him. He's a frail old man, and he should do that. I know he's not even that old,
00:13:47.500 but he's not super buff-looking guy. He'd be like, oh, good job. If you're in shape,
00:13:53.340 don't show how in shape you are. In fact, actually, you should probably get suits with a little bit
00:13:57.980 more room in them so that it doesn't seem like to be showing off that he's a fit dude with a good
00:14:02.780 build. He should actually get suits with a little more drape in them. It'll help. Get suits
00:14:06.600 with a little more color in them. He should actually lean into being dorky. Don't lean into
00:14:12.200 being cool because it sounds weird to say he kind of has already a cool persona, and leaning into
00:14:19.040 kind of being a bit of a dork, almost putting the glasses back on, makes him actually cooler.
00:14:24.000 If you're cool and you lean into being cool, you're now lame, and that's why I think certain
00:14:28.860 things that Paulyov does makes him come off as lame because he's putting too much of a hat on a hat
00:14:35.040 with these podcasts that he's going on. He did a great podcast yesterday. I congratulate him for
00:14:40.460 it. He went on Constantine Kissin's show, Trigonometry. That's a good dorky show for him
00:14:46.680 to go on. It's a very interesting show, too. I love their show. But that's the sort of thing he
00:14:50.880 should be doing. Do not do workout videos. Do not try and seem cool. In fact, make yourself less cool
00:14:56.160 because counterintuitively, it will make you seem cooler. You know, you don't want that
00:15:01.880 hello, fellow kids. Hello, fellow cool teens. You want to kind of seem like a guy who's not even
00:15:08.040 trying for anyone's, you know, for anyone to think that he's a tough guy, to think he's a fit dude.
00:15:15.900 You don't want anyone to think about these things. But it's just, I think it's social media trends that
00:15:21.360 convince people that they need to, like, wear tight t-shirts and wear, you know, blazers over a white
00:15:26.400 shirt. Put on some more colorful suits. Wear some more colorful, you know, accessories. Try it. Just
00:15:34.560 try it. But anyways, with that all being said, sorry for the strange rant at the end of this video.
00:15:40.680 That should be it for me today, guys. Make sure to like the video, subscribe, share the video,
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