The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - Carney is WEAK if he can be defeated by Pierre on Trade!

00:00:00.000 Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here, and welcome back to the National Telegraph YouTube channel.

00:00:05.860 I just wanted to make a quick video that kind of explains why Pierre Polyev and the Conservatives

00:00:12.020 have recently made a shift in their messaging on the canned U.S. trade issue. I think the

00:00:18.200 Conservatives know that this is the key issue to unraveling Mark Carney's popularity right now.

00:00:24.720 Carney and the Liberals are objectively leading the Conservatives in the polls.

00:00:28.860 Now, don't believe like Leger or Liaison showing like a 12 to 14 percent lead for the Liberals.

00:00:35.880 I think we can all walk around our own neighborhoods. We know people in our own lives.

00:00:39.800 We haven't heard a lot of people shifting towards Carney recently. Now, the Carney Liberals do have

00:00:45.540 a messaging advantage, and that's because Donald Trump is in the headlines recently. It ticks off

00:00:51.180 a bunch of Canadians, and partially it moves people towards the Liberals a little bit.

00:00:56.200 What I think really happens is a response bias happens, where more Liberals are picking up the

00:01:01.540 phone and taking polls because Trump ticks them off, whereas Conservatives, because the Conservative

00:01:06.620 Party has been in a bit of messaging limbo, are just not as motivated to actually get on the phone

00:01:12.040 or answer an online poll telling pollsters what they think. Now, response bias is still, I guess,

00:01:19.560 what you'd call somewhat real, in the sense if you're more willing to pick up the phone, maybe you're

00:01:23.940 more willing to vote. So, do not discount that the Liberals are ahead. I think they're ahead anywhere

00:01:28.800 from 5 percent to 9 percent at the most. That would still give the Liberals a big majority. Again,

00:01:35.440 that's not a small lead. It's just not this gargantuan 14-point lead that's absolutely insane.

00:01:40.940 But the poly of Conservatives are going to try and chip away at Mark Carney on this trade issue

00:01:47.260 for the exact reason that I'm going to show you the chart in just a second here. It's an issue that

00:01:53.480 the Carney Liberals do very well on. It's a keystone issue for them, but they're also vulnerable. If you

00:01:59.840 start to steal the middle voters on this issue away from them, they're going to have to shift over to

00:02:04.480 other things, and they're not good on other things at all. So, before I get into the numbers, I just

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00:02:25.500 make a small contribution per month and allow me to be less reliant on the YouTube algorithm for

00:02:30.600 monthly income because every once in a while the YouTube algorithm just gut punches me and it just

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00:02:40.680 of viewers who give a little bit of money here and there, a couple dollars a month, it kind of offsets

00:02:45.780 it every once in a while when YouTube just decides it's not going to share my content anywhere.

00:02:49.860 It's like if a TV station just lost all of its providers except people who still have like,

00:02:55.040 you know, their rabbit ear antennas or whatever. It's obnoxious. Anyway, so here is the numbers

00:03:00.520 from abacus data that I think will prove my point here. They asked people, this is the question,

00:03:06.420 overall, do you think Prime Minister Mark Carney is doing a good job, an okay job, or a poor job in

00:03:12.460 managing his relationship with President Trump? Now, the results here show that 16% of respondents

00:03:20.480 said he's doing a very good job, 26% say good job, 24% say okay job, 11% say poor job, 19% say very poor,

00:03:29.420 and only 4% don't know. This is a big issue for people, and you can tell because there are not

00:03:34.540 a lot of people undecided on it. 4% is nothing. It's basically around a year. People have strong

00:03:40.800 opinions on this, or at the very least, they have well-developed opinions. The key demographic here,

00:03:48.320 the key number is 24% saying he's doing an okay job. That probably means, you know, they think he's

00:03:56.360 managing his affair as well. He's being standoffish with Trump, which maybe they like. That's the

00:04:01.600 thing with the Liberal Party. It actually benefits Mark Carney to not sign a deal with Trump, because

00:04:06.900 there's so many TDS, Trump derangement syndrome voters in his coalition, they might actually get

00:04:12.420 mad at him if he signs a deal. But I would say two-thirds are Trump derangement syndrome voters.

00:04:18.620 One-third are business liberals who, doesn't matter what they think about Trump,

00:04:22.700 they know Canada needs a deal. That doesn't mean the other two-thirds don't also want a deal in

00:04:28.300 theory, but they hate Trump so much, they pretty much, like, if there's any idea that he had to

00:04:34.880 concede anything to Trump, they're going to be very annoyed. That's why you see only 17% of liberals

00:04:40.320 being willing to admit that Trump striking Iran and Islamic theocracy killing tens of thousands of 0.53

00:04:46.580 people is a good thing. It's just that's how bad the TDS is over there. But here we have 24% of

00:04:54.660 people saying he's doing an okay job only. This is a group who probably wants to see a deal get signed,

00:05:01.520 and if a deal's not getting signed, well, they're subject to changing their opinion and think he's

00:05:06.520 doing a poor job. So right now, you have Carney leading on this issue by 12%, but that's only

00:05:12.620 because there are 24% of people who are neutral in the middle. Now, remember, for Carney, good job

00:05:19.340 just means that they think he's doing a good job. That doesn't mean they're liberal voters. Those

00:05:23.280 people could be NDP voters. They could be Greens. They could be Block. Those three parties are more

00:05:29.620 likely to think he's doing a good job than not a good job, and the people saying poor job are pretty

00:05:34.640 much all conservatives. But if those 24% of people thinking okay job move to poor job, that's going to

00:05:40.440 empower the NDP and the conservatives and all of the other parties. 16% are pretty much all the very

00:05:47.220 good job people. Those are like the liberal supporters, maybe, and a couple of NDP, Block,

00:05:52.300 and Green supporters. The good jobs are NDP, a lot of liberals, and others. But the okay job people

00:05:59.400 are the people who probably don't normally vote liberal, but they did last election. Maybe they could

00:06:05.880 be conservatives too, but you get the point I'm trying to make here is that Carney basically on

00:06:12.420 this issue that's a very good issue for him. He gets to posture against Trump all the time

00:06:16.640 on the issue of trade. If Polyev pushes him that he has to get a deal done by basically offering him

00:06:23.880 all this help, because that's Polyev's play right now. It's very smart. He's giving every option to

00:06:30.000 Kearney. All of these great ideas. How about we unify against communist China and we rip up our EV

00:06:35.820 deal and then we have a zero tariff relationship on vehicles. We can basically sign a Kanzuk deal and

00:06:42.160 cut China out of it and then use that Kanzuk deal, which is canned Australia, New Zealand, 0.98

00:06:49.540 the Commonwealth countries banding together. Then that Kanzuk coalition can then negotiate with more 0.90

00:06:54.500 strength against the United States. Polyev is coming up with all these very, very, very good

00:07:00.400 ideas. And Carney, because he can't sign a deal with Trump because he doesn't want the conservatives

00:07:05.600 help her look pathetic. And a lot of his people don't want the deal to get signed. He is going to 0.96

00:07:11.000 start hurting himself with those okay people. And if Mark Carney is beat on this issue, if he, if this

00:07:17.420 starts being a contentious, controversial issue for him, that's bad because the other issues currently in

00:07:23.580 the news are not great for Carney. You can't really name an issue that Carney does really well on like

00:07:29.360 healthcare. I don't know. The budget's terrible. Public safety, immigration, he's done some decent

00:07:36.740 reforms on. It's still not enough. And I don't think the people voting liberal really care about that

00:07:42.160 issue that much. So in terms of, in terms of retaining the voters he had last time, he's not really,

00:07:49.840 it's the trade issue. It's the anti-Trump thing that's keeping them there. Just look at this one.

00:07:55.280 Breaking. Prime Minister Carney says Canada won't rule out joining US in military action against Iran.

00:08:01.200 Follow for live updates. This has been developing. I actually think at one point he even committed to

00:08:06.140 like potentially sending troops to Iran. He started off congratulating Trump and Israel, the Americans in

00:08:13.820 Israel for going in and hitting the Iranian regime. Rightfully so, he congratulated them, gave them some 1.00

00:08:19.200 kudos because they're killing their own people. It's a terror. It's the biggest state sponsor of 0.51

00:08:24.760 terrorism in the world. The Iranian regime is awful. Carney took the right position early. 1.00

00:08:29.960 And then a couple of days later, he then reversed his position and then said, oh, actually, Israel and

00:08:36.660 America are violating international law. And this is so terrible. And they should have gotten UN sign off

00:08:41.580 on this, even though Iranian allies are on the UN Security Council and the UN Security Council and

00:08:47.720 international law don't mean anything anyways. So he then took that position. And now he has leapfrogged

00:08:52.300 back to saying that he might join them for military action against Iran. Because Carney doesn't know what

00:08:57.600 he's doing off of the trade issue. He's terrible on foreign policy. I actually think on certain foreign

00:09:03.580 policy issues, he's okay. But in a general sense, he's really bad, especially when the United States is

00:09:09.180 involved. He's doing a fine job on India. He's not too bad on that issue. But when it comes to Maduro,

00:09:15.400 he messed that one up terribly. And that's why I think he corrected on the Iran issue. But then

00:09:20.900 because there was a lot of Canadians super pissed off at Trump recently, then he flip-flopped and then

00:09:26.020 he flip-flopped again. Get this guy onto a different issue he's not comfortable with. And this is where

00:09:31.460 I'm calling on the conservatives. You need to take your new stance on trade, which is very good,

00:09:36.600 giving as much advice to Mark Carney knowing he will take none of it. Take that position and apply

00:09:42.220 it to other issues. Know what? Be like Dallas Brody and 1BC in British Columbia. Take really

00:09:49.120 bold stances on controversial issues and force your opponent to basically change or completely get

00:09:56.020 wiped out in a referendum-style election. That's what 1BC is doing right now in British Columbia

00:10:01.980 on the issue of DRIPA and SOGI. The other parties are too scared to deal with those issues head on.

00:10:07.640 So 1BC, by taking a bold position on it, which at the start seemed too harsh, too controversial,

00:10:14.500 is slowly becoming the majority opinion because the biggest benefits in politics are taking on an issue

00:10:20.380 where initially you're losing and then changing everyone's minds. And I think Polyev could do that

00:10:25.860 on things. He should run hard against these land deals because it's now become a federal issue

00:10:30.560 after Mark Carney and the Liberals signed that insane Musqueam deal that basically put Aboriginal 1.00

00:10:36.200 land title over the entire Lower Mainland. That's a good one for him. Run on a massive tax cut.

00:10:43.960 20%, even just 15 maybe. I think there needs to be a 2 in front of it. But 20, 15% across the board.

00:10:51.560 Every bracket goes down. That's every income bracket. That's corporate. That's taking a couple points,

00:10:58.160 one or two points off the GST. Just do it. Don't sit there and tell yourself, well, that'll make

00:11:03.800 balancing the budget tougher. One, it won't because, in fact, it'll actually increase revenues because

00:11:09.340 we'll stop disincentivizing people from working harder or expanding their businesses, or we won't

00:11:14.120 be pushing as much investment into the U.S. But also, I could deal with another deficit or two as long

00:11:20.540 as people are getting their money back. Step one is making the economy function again, and that's giving

00:11:25.320 people their money back. Run on heavy deregulation. Run on healthcare reform. Heck, run on the death 0.94

00:11:31.320 penalty for serial killers and mass murderers. If the Tumlar Ridge shooter had lived, we should have

00:11:38.120 executed him if we could. That would be good. Do stuff like that. It's good to be controversial 0.99

00:11:44.160 because controversy means it's an issue you'll get attention on. Paulyov got some attention on this

00:11:49.420 Canada-U.S. issue. Now he needs to find just a big whale of an issue that he can keep striking at.

00:11:56.580 The industrial carbon tax is not going to do it. In a certain sense, Paulyov has never had to properly

00:12:02.060 define himself as a politician, and I'm not slagging him for that. It's just when he won the leadership of

00:12:08.380 the Conservative Party back in 22, he didn't really have to define himself, and in fact, I don't think it

00:12:13.880 was possible to define himself because all people wanted to know was he wasn't Justin Trudeau. He could have

00:12:19.220 released an entire documentary about who he is and where he's come from, and he could have been the

00:12:24.400 most interesting man on the planet. No one would have paid attention to a single thing about the man

00:12:28.560 because all they wanted to hear was, you're not Justin Trudeau? Perfect. And now Paulyov, I think,

00:12:33.580 needs to kind of redefine himself as a different type of fighter because he is the Trudeau slayer.

00:12:39.720 He's not the carny slayer, and I don't think that Canadians are looking for the carny slayer.

00:12:44.120 They are looking for the guy who is going to win on affordability, win on trade, win on foreign

00:12:50.560 policy, and I think that you need to recast yourself as a winner by taking on hard fights

00:12:55.180 and winning them. This is a random thing. I also want to say, Paulyov, I don't think,

00:13:01.460 this is going to sound so weird. It's like back when I made that video where I was criticizing

00:13:05.360 different politicians' fashions. I do still stand by. I think Paulyov needs to soften his haircut.

00:13:10.200 Don't slick it back too much. It's too shiny. Paulyov has to not try and come off as so cool.

00:13:16.640 Now, that sounds so strange for me to say, but he recently did a podcast with a personal trainer

00:13:21.380 about his workout routine and all this stuff and why working out is important.

00:13:26.600 The problem for Paulyov is that he's actually a fit guy. He's a good-looking fit guy, and no one

00:13:33.640 wants to hear about how fit you are. It's kind of one of those things that's counterintuitive.

00:13:37.620 Mark Carney could do a video of him pumping iron in the gym because we'd all look at them like,

00:13:43.180 oh, good for him. He's a frail old man, and he should do that. I know he's not even that old,

00:13:47.500 but he's not super buff-looking guy. He'd be like, oh, good job. If you're in shape,

00:13:53.340 don't show how in shape you are. In fact, actually, you should probably get suits with a little bit

00:13:57.980 more room in them so that it doesn't seem like to be showing off that he's a fit dude with a good

00:14:02.780 build. He should actually get suits with a little more drape in them. It'll help. Get suits

00:14:06.600 with a little more color in them. He should actually lean into being dorky. Don't lean into 0.91

00:14:12.200 being cool because it sounds weird to say he kind of has already a cool persona, and leaning into 0.54

00:14:19.040 kind of being a bit of a dork, almost putting the glasses back on, makes him actually cooler.

00:14:24.000 If you're cool and you lean into being cool, you're now lame, and that's why I think certain 0.96

00:14:28.860 things that Paulyov does makes him come off as lame because he's putting too much of a hat on a hat

00:14:35.040 with these podcasts that he's going on. He did a great podcast yesterday. I congratulate him for

00:14:40.460 it. He went on Constantine Kissin's show, Trigonometry. That's a good dorky show for him

00:14:46.680 to go on. It's a very interesting show, too. I love their show. But that's the sort of thing he

00:14:50.880 should be doing. Do not do workout videos. Do not try and seem cool. In fact, make yourself less cool

00:14:56.160 because counterintuitively, it will make you seem cooler. You know, you don't want that

00:15:01.880 hello, fellow kids. Hello, fellow cool teens. You want to kind of seem like a guy who's not even

00:15:08.040 trying for anyone's, you know, for anyone to think that he's a tough guy, to think he's a fit dude.

00:15:15.900 You don't want anyone to think about these things. But it's just, I think it's social media trends that

00:15:21.360 convince people that they need to, like, wear tight t-shirts and wear, you know, blazers over a white

00:15:26.400 shirt. Put on some more colorful suits. Wear some more colorful, you know, accessories. Try it. Just

00:15:34.560 try it. But anyways, with that all being said, sorry for the strange rant at the end of this video.

00:15:40.680 That should be it for me today, guys. Make sure to like the video, subscribe, share the video,

00:15:45.880 let, you know, leave a comment. Do all that great stuff. Consider supporting the channel. Consider

00:15:50.380 hitting that join button. And of course, I'll see you all next time.

The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - March 06, 2026

Carney is WEAK if he can be defeated by Pierre on Trade!

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