The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - Carney Liberals are ＂worried＂ budget won't pass! New Election？

00:00:00.000 Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here.

00:00:02.760 It seems like the Liberals are genuinely concerned as to whether or not their budget is going to pass in the next couple of weeks here,

00:00:10.160 and it could make Canadian politics much more interesting than it already is.

00:00:15.920 Now, I'm not sure if the Liberals actually want a new election or not,

00:00:21.160 because some people are speculating as to whether or not the Liberals are intentionally trying to tank negotiations

00:00:27.820 around trying to pass their budget in order to try and go for a majority government.

00:00:32.400 But from my perspective, it actually does genuinely sound like they are concerned that this thing is not going to pass,

00:00:38.840 and they are trying to batter either the Bloc Québécois or the NDP on board to do it.

00:00:44.620 I think the saving grace for the Liberals here is going to be that the NDP is currently in a leadership race,

00:00:50.960 and so they may just pass it in order to buy themselves some more time.

00:00:54.860 Although, frankly, they probably do better an election with Don Davies as their leader

00:01:00.460 than any of the other people currently running for the NDP leadership,

00:01:04.240 but that's just my opinion about a party I would never vote for, so take it with a grain of salt.

00:01:10.240 But I want to take you through the statement that Dominic LeBlanc made in Parliament today,

00:01:15.980 where he does not sound super, super confident in anything that is going on right now.

00:01:21.760 Actually, before we get to that, I do just want to show you guys the charts.

00:01:24.860 Because this is also why they should not want an election right now.

00:01:29.420 So the last federal election was super, super tight.

00:01:33.500 The Liberals ended up winning the popular vote by 2.3%,

00:01:37.080 but the Conservatives actually got disproportionately more seats than they usually do

00:01:41.900 because their vote has become more efficient.

00:01:44.300 So despite the Liberals winning the popular vote by 2.3%,

00:01:48.160 which normally would actually have the Liberals winning a majority,

00:01:51.740 they still only got a minority government,

00:01:54.380 they're only a few seats away from a majority, but it's still not a majority.

00:01:59.500 And after they won, you see this big lead that opens up for the Liberals as they enter their honeymoon phase,

00:02:06.680 which after several policy fumbles and rhetorical foot-in-their-mouth moments,

00:02:11.940 has whittled back down to basically where we were at the election.

00:02:16.660 In fact, the margin between the Liberals and Conservatives is closer than the election was.

00:02:22.500 Right now, with all the polls averaged, you have the Liberals at 40.9% and the Conservatives at 38.4%.

00:02:28.660 So that is the flavor that we, that is kind of, that is what is flavoring the situation

00:02:35.280 as we are getting in to the issue about the budget.

00:02:39.700 So let's jump over to that now.

00:02:42.440 Look at this.

00:02:44.400 We have the, we have not finance, is he the finance minister?

00:02:48.840 It's Dominic LeBlanc.

00:02:49.760 He's not the finance minister, but I think he's our trade representative with the Americans.

00:02:54.080 But he is talking about the Bloc Québécois not being supportive of the budget

00:02:58.480 or at least hedging on whether or not they will actually vote for it.

00:03:01.700 So I just want to say, because I haven't said this in English yet,

00:03:04.260 that we're, we're two weeks from the budget.

00:03:06.460 I, I think that, um, uh, what I'm seeing in Parliament worries me.

00:03:11.540 Um, we have, uh, two opposition parties principally that aren't taking this matter very seriously.

00:03:18.100 Canadians are looking for certainty.

00:03:19.720 We had an election six months ago.

00:03:21.660 Canadians are looking for predictability, stability, and especially a plan.

00:03:27.120 We intend to present a plan to Canadians to deal with this very critical moment in our history.

00:03:33.520 Isn't that kind of telling?

00:03:35.160 It's six months in and we're only tabling the plan on how to deal with this critical moment right now.

00:03:40.940 Like, I thought you guys were, you know, Mark Carney was the man with a plan

00:03:44.120 and you guys were going to lead us through a crisis.

00:03:45.940 But six months in, we're only tabling the plan.

00:03:48.440 And what we're seeing is our, our opposition parties, the Bloc Québécois,

00:03:52.420 who without having even read the budget, uh, eliminate the possibility that they will support it.

00:03:57.820 And the Conservatives making, uh, just ludicrous demands with respect to the budget.

00:04:02.160 It sounds like you're worried about maybe Canada going to another election.

00:04:04.760 Is that a realistic possibility that Canadians can expect?

00:04:06.880 We have, we have, um, uh, minority government, but we believe we have a mandate.

00:04:12.220 Um, and when I see opposition parties, uh, not, uh, uh, ruling out the possibility of voting for the budget,

00:04:19.000 uh, that's starting to worry me.

00:04:20.740 But I think it's them that are misreading the mood of Canadians.

00:04:23.860 If an election is necessary.

00:04:25.400 They're misreading the mood of Canadians.

00:04:28.020 We had a poll we just looked at.

00:04:29.920 The mood of Canadians is actually very undecided on whether or not they like this government or not.

00:04:35.220 Like, does Mark Carney personally have a positive approval rating, like a net positive approval rating?

00:04:41.380 Yes.

00:04:42.380 But he's also a new prime minister.

00:04:44.300 And it usually takes a while for people to sour on the personality of the prime minister.

00:04:49.760 You know, Mark Carney is also a fairly boring guy.

00:04:52.000 He's not going to rub people the wrong way for quite a while.

00:04:54.940 Now, I don't like him, but the average person who doesn't follow politics very closely

00:04:59.280 is probably not going to be bothered by Mark Carney until much, much later.

00:05:04.240 Trudeau was a far more polarizing personality, but Carney is not.

00:05:07.820 But that doesn't mean that people actually vote for his party.

00:05:10.640 He's also not the super charismatic leader that people will, you know, fight to the hilt for.

00:05:15.480 He's just kind of, like, you know, a somewhat nice guy to most people.

00:05:18.900 But, you know, his policies haven't been great so far,

00:05:21.580 and his elbows-up thing kind of faded away quite quickly.

00:05:25.560 And the budget is not exactly what they expected from a guy who was pushing himself

00:05:30.140 as, like, the fiscally conservative liberal leader.

00:05:34.500 It's just not a good look for them right now to also basically be saying,

00:05:38.040 well, you know, we should stay in government because, you know,

00:05:40.840 there was an election six months ago and we're still in.

00:05:42.900 Like, yeah, I guess you had a mandate,

00:05:44.900 but you guys quickly shredded the mandate by doing none of what you really said.

00:05:49.180 But they're not really saving money and they're not investing more and spending less.

00:05:53.420 They're just spending more.

00:05:55.260 They're not doing the elbows-up thing anymore.

00:05:57.320 I don't really know what else they were really elected into government to do

00:06:00.540 that was at the forefront of people's minds,

00:06:02.800 because it was pretty much just the anti-Trump stuff for most of their voters,

00:06:05.740 and that was it.

00:06:06.380 We would obviously, reluctantly, because we don't think Canadians want an election,

00:06:12.220 but election there will be.

00:06:14.880 It's the opposition parties who have that decision in their hands.

00:06:18.020 Why don't you accept the NDP's demands?

00:06:19.240 Well, which ones?

00:06:21.620 The one that said it's inimaginable that they vote for the budget,

00:06:24.800 the negotiable demands, or the non-negotiable demands?

00:06:28.120 It's pretty hard to follow.

00:06:29.520 What about the NDP?

00:06:31.720 You'll have to ask the NDP about the NDP.

00:06:34.060 Have you been having those conversations?

00:06:35.180 Minister.

00:06:36.100 What I just said is that the Prime Minister has had conversations,

00:06:40.940 Mr. Chopin has had conversations,

00:06:42.920 other ministers have had conversations,

00:06:44.980 and we will continue to listen to what they have to say.

00:06:48.540 So they know the Conservatives are going to vote against it.

00:06:51.720 They don't think the bloc's going to vote for it,

00:06:54.240 and so that's not great for them.

00:06:56.480 And then with the NDP,

00:06:57.640 he genuinely doesn't know what the NDP are going to do.

00:07:00.400 Now, again, I think 80% chance the NDP just votes for it

00:07:04.120 because they're in a leadership election,

00:07:05.500 and they need to buy themselves time,

00:07:06.980 and they're kind of broke.

00:07:08.300 At the same time, with only seven current MPs,

00:07:11.700 they could slap together a very cheap and dirty campaign

00:07:15.700 in order to try and increase their siege count,

00:07:17.820 because the polls have showed them bounce back

00:07:20.420 from just 6% in the last election up to 12%,

00:07:24.000 and 12% would probably have them scoring around 15 seats or so,

00:07:28.500 which would make them an official party again.

00:07:30.600 That was actually one of the things that ended up falling through

00:07:33.060 with the NDP previously,

00:07:34.360 is that they said they would enter an official liberal coalition,

00:07:38.340 or at least they would support them on confidence measures,

00:07:40.360 as long as they lowered the official party threshold

00:07:43.560 so that they would get extra funding in Parliament,

00:07:45.640 even though they don't actually have the seats

00:07:48.120 that they need in order to be an official party.

00:07:51.440 So maybe that also ends up coming out

00:07:53.700 in order to pass the budget that the NDP

00:07:56.380 get to be an official party with seven seats.

00:07:58.680 Again, if I was the NDP, I would just call an election now,

00:08:01.460 because guess what?

00:08:02.360 You're not going to be Prime Minister.

00:08:04.060 Whoever is the NDP leader is almost immaterial.

00:08:06.760 And frankly, Don Davies is probably a better leader

00:08:10.440 than Heather McPherson or Avi Lewis.

00:08:13.540 There's that other guy who's more of a trade unionist,

00:08:16.000 but that's pretty much like Don Davies.

00:08:18.600 He's an old Teamsters lawyer,

00:08:20.160 which is frankly not a bad guy to be running

00:08:22.440 as the leader of your party right now

00:08:24.740 when the NDP needs to recover from the perception

00:08:27.980 that they are a pretentious party

00:08:30.140 of downtown metropolitan elites like Jagmeet Singh.

00:08:33.280 And, you know, why not throw the Teamsters lawyer in

00:08:36.440 as the leader for now, get some more seats,

00:08:38.980 and then have your leadership race afterwards.

00:08:41.540 Again, it's not like he's going to be Prime Minister.

00:08:43.700 It's not like it's a position

00:08:45.120 where the person's going to be able to do anything

00:08:47.480 post-election in terms of the Prime Minister's office.

00:08:50.180 They are just the leader of the NDP,

00:08:52.180 and that is all they will ever be.

00:08:54.660 But now let's jump over to some other clips here.

00:08:57.980 We had Mark Carney here.

00:09:00.380 This was kind of funny.

00:09:01.320 talking about how we need to, like, you know,

00:09:04.560 he's going to go off now to Asia

00:09:06.620 to sign more trade agreements,

00:09:08.980 i.e. a bunch of hollow nothing

00:09:10.800 because he has to basically travel around

00:09:13.520 talking with world leaders to pretend he's doing stuff

00:09:15.700 because he actually hasn't gotten anything done yet.

00:09:18.160 Our strategy is diversifying trade.

00:09:20.400 That's why we're going to Asia.

00:09:22.320 You saw the Indonesian trade deal.

00:09:24.520 We're in talks with ASEAN,

00:09:25.840 which is the group of countries

00:09:26.940 that I'm meeting with in Kuala Lumpur,

00:09:29.780 and then more broadly at APEC,

00:09:32.620 including with China.

00:09:33.720 You might have not been able to hear that.

00:09:35.180 Some of the clips I end up playing are a bit quieter.

00:09:37.440 But he was talking about how,

00:09:39.060 well, we signed an agreement with Indonesia

00:09:40.920 in Kuala Lumpur,

00:09:42.320 so I'm going to go out to Asia

00:09:44.960 to try and sign more of those deals.

00:09:46.480 And then someone asked him,

00:09:47.280 well, are you going to sign a deal with India?

00:09:48.540 And then he just refused to answer it

00:09:50.700 because the liberals these days

00:09:52.620 are supposed to dislike India

00:09:54.180 for petty internal community reasons

00:09:57.860 from a lot of Kalistanis.

00:10:00.120 And so, yeah,

00:10:01.920 he's not actually serious about signing agreements

00:10:03.900 because he won't sign an agreement

00:10:04.960 with the biggest power in Asia aside from China.

00:10:10.200 And so I need to now play,

00:10:12.420 do we have this?

00:10:13.460 We have Melanie Jolie talking about

00:10:15.860 the Stellantis failure

00:10:17.900 where we now have

00:10:19.180 the Stellantis car manufacturer plant

00:10:21.800 leaving Brampton

00:10:22.920 and they're just pretending

00:10:24.660 like they can pressure them into staying.

00:10:26.440 Stellantis has been kind of thumbing their nose 0.50

00:10:28.140 at a contract they signed.

00:10:29.300 If GM can walk away,

00:10:30.520 we don't really have that same sort of deal with them.

00:10:32.240 So what kind of leverage do we have?

00:10:33.140 So I think it's two completely different situations.

00:10:35.920 When you look at Stellantis,

00:10:37.460 Stellantis had an obligation

00:10:38.740 to bring back the production

00:10:40.360 to the Brampton plant

00:10:42.000 and they failed that obligation.

00:10:45.180 And so that's why

00:10:46.760 we're putting maximum pressure on the company.

00:10:49.160 And it comes to GM,

00:10:50.900 they decided to let go of their bright drop,

00:10:53.820 which was an EV vehicle

00:10:55.440 that was not going well commercially.

00:10:58.220 That's a decision they took.

00:11:00.260 What does that tell you

00:11:01.420 about the green energy sector in general

00:11:03.880 and the EV sector?

00:11:05.820 The stuff is not wanted by consumers

00:11:08.240 despite the fact

00:11:09.300 that much of this is subsidized by the government,

00:11:11.860 not just the manufacturer,

00:11:13.280 but the purchasing is subsidized by the government.

00:11:15.040 And they still couldn't sell that car.

00:11:16.660 It's almost like we shouldn't base

00:11:18.900 our industrial policy

00:11:20.560 on newfangled green energy

00:11:24.020 and EVs that nobody actually wants.

00:11:27.460 And as soon as it stops being a trend,

00:11:28.980 people stop buying it.

00:11:29.840 Or as soon as the US gets rid of subsidies

00:11:32.520 for people buying green EVs,

00:11:35.240 immediately the entire sector dries up.

00:11:38.820 Like maybe we shouldn't have done this

00:11:40.140 and we should have actually invested

00:11:41.000 in things that matter.

00:11:42.400 Of course, we'll hold them to account

00:11:44.100 for any support we've given them

00:11:46.240 to develop that model.

00:11:48.620 But at the same time,

00:11:50.200 we are creating a response group

00:11:52.280 to make sure that we're bringing a new model

00:11:54.680 because the 1,200 workers

00:11:57.160 at the Ingersoll plan

00:11:58.460 need to know that we're fighting for their jobs.

00:12:00.740 What's the difference?

00:12:01.960 What about bringing a new model in? 0.97

00:12:03.880 That is something that's going to take some time.

00:12:05.720 What kind of time frame are you looking at?

00:12:07.700 These are people who are out of work now.

00:12:09.780 Well, urgency is a matter.

00:12:11.400 So that's why I'm...

00:12:12.660 Don't worry, guys.

00:12:13.720 They're going to create another group

00:12:14.880 or a department or some agency

00:12:16.500 to look at something

00:12:17.500 and probably end up doing nothing.

00:12:18.980 So we're going to pay a bunch of money

00:12:20.140 to get absolutely nothing done.

00:12:22.780 Another sign that the liberals

00:12:24.540 are actually kind of concerned

00:12:25.880 about their budget not passing

00:12:27.140 is the fact they've gone so hard

00:12:29.620 at Pierre Polyev

00:12:30.640 trying to paint him

00:12:32.240 as this far-right figure

00:12:33.600 because they don't have the issue

00:12:35.600 of Donald Trump anymore.

00:12:37.020 Yes, Donald Trump is still around

00:12:38.220 and they can probably motivate people

00:12:39.400 to vote for them

00:12:40.040 because, you know,

00:12:40.780 hey, Donald Trump's bad.

00:12:42.360 But it went from like a, you know,

00:12:45.500 number one issue for a lot of Canadians

00:12:47.300 to being off the map for most Canadians.

00:12:50.100 Like it was the number two issue

00:12:51.540 in the election campaign

00:12:52.580 and now most pollsters find

00:12:54.200 Donald Trump and his administration

00:12:55.380 to be number four, number five,

00:12:57.800 sometimes even number six for people.

00:12:59.900 They barely won the last election.

00:13:01.560 When you look at the tightest ridings,

00:13:03.180 the liberals barely won

00:13:04.860 even a minority government.

00:13:06.060 The conservatives were only 8,000 votes away

00:13:08.120 in the tightest ridings

00:13:09.100 from being the ones

00:13:10.320 in the minority government situation.

00:13:13.020 And now, and that was with Trump

00:13:15.680 as the second biggest issue

00:13:16.920 after cost of living,

00:13:17.960 which it's almost impossible

00:13:19.100 to not have the cost of living

00:13:20.680 be the primary issue.

00:13:21.980 It's pretty much always the biggest issue.

00:13:23.540 It's the most universal issue

00:13:25.020 for people to care about.

00:13:26.620 But now they don't have

00:13:27.940 their main number two issue

00:13:29.240 in which that was the one issue

00:13:31.260 the liberals had a massive advantage on.

00:13:33.560 It's now number four or five.

00:13:34.880 It's still going to help them,

00:13:36.420 but they can't really lean on that one

00:13:38.720 nearly as much anymore,

00:13:39.920 so that's why they're now

00:13:40.720 attacking Pierre Polyev.

00:13:42.520 You have this person here saying,

00:13:44.100 quote,

00:13:44.340 I can't believe that this needs to be said,

00:13:47.200 but it is wrong to call

00:13:48.720 for the jailing of your political opponents.

00:13:50.680 Perhaps somebody should tell Pierre Polyev

00:13:52.520 these remarks are anti-democratic.

00:13:54.840 It's emblematic of a politician

00:13:56.760 who has lost his mind.

00:13:58.880 And this individual was quoting

00:14:00.740 the Justin Ling article

00:14:03.240 about Pierre Polyev

00:14:04.180 and the Toronto Star

00:14:04.940 that says Pierre Polyev's

00:14:06.660 conspiracy theorizing

00:14:07.880 isn't just wrong,

00:14:09.340 it's dangerous.

00:14:10.960 And we've seen a lot of this,

00:14:12.780 a lot of stuff calling

00:14:13.920 Pierre Polyev mini-Trump,

00:14:15.780 and he is a mega,

00:14:17.280 far-right conspiracy theorist,

00:14:19.180 and it's all cropped up

00:14:20.160 very suddenly.

00:14:22.580 And if the liberal government,

00:14:24.020 I would say,

00:14:24.740 if they actually had any issues

00:14:26.660 that they were doing well on,

00:14:28.500 if they were actually popular right now,

00:14:30.560 I don't think they would be

00:14:31.640 wasting time attacking Pierre Polyev.

00:14:33.240 If anything,

00:14:33.700 they would ignore him

00:14:34.580 and let him make noise over there

00:14:36.460 while we're getting stuff done

00:14:37.640 that people like.

00:14:38.900 They're not getting stuff done

00:14:39.900 that people like,

00:14:40.820 that's why they're now

00:14:41.520 opening up on Pierre,

00:14:42.780 and that's why they're concerned

00:14:43.980 about the budget not being passed.

00:14:45.400 Other parties,

00:14:46.120 no, they're not very popular right now,

00:14:48.080 and if we roll the dice again

00:14:49.520 in another election,

00:14:50.720 they could end up losing

00:14:51.660 because Polyev could just say,

00:14:52.860 hey, you're the guy,

00:14:54.480 it doesn't matter that I've only

00:14:55.420 given you six months,

00:14:56.660 you're the guy who said

00:14:57.260 you could turn this whole thing

00:14:58.440 around within months.

00:14:59.900 We've had six of them,

00:15:01.340 and not only have you

00:15:02.540 not turned things around,

00:15:04.060 things are measurably worse.

00:15:06.060 Inflation's worse.

00:15:07.400 The deficits are worse.

00:15:09.360 Everything's worse,

00:15:10.560 and now you're going to say

00:15:11.560 that I'm somehow,

00:15:12.800 you know,

00:15:13.360 being,

00:15:14.380 it's uncouth of me

00:15:15.660 to call an election

00:15:16.420 to say maybe we need

00:15:17.440 a recall on this guy

00:15:18.620 who promised the world

00:15:20.160 and is delivering less than that.

00:15:22.740 Anyways,

00:15:23.620 so,

00:15:24.200 with that being said,

00:15:25.260 thank you guys all for watching.

00:15:26.660 Just a bit of an update

00:15:27.520 on the chaos in Parliament.

00:15:29.580 I will be making a video

00:15:30.840 probably tomorrow

00:15:31.660 on the Calgary election situation.

00:15:33.980 Obviously,

00:15:34.500 it looks like Jeremy Farkas

00:15:35.860 has very,

00:15:36.820 very narrowly won

00:15:38.140 over Sonia Sharp. 0.99

00:15:39.560 I mean,

00:15:39.980 literally by

00:15:40.560 0.16%

00:15:42.860 of the vote.

00:15:43.760 He only won by

00:15:44.380 500 votes

00:15:45.360 around that.

00:15:46.520 There will be a recount.

00:15:47.820 He still likely will win,

00:15:49.060 but I do want to make a video

00:15:50.080 kind of talking about the race.

00:15:52.060 The silver lining is

00:15:53.060 Jodi Gondek did lose

00:15:54.580 and came in a distant third,

00:15:56.100 so I was right to say

00:15:57.220 that she looked like

00:15:58.240 she was going to become

00:15:59.080 the Lori Lightfoot

00:16:00.180 of this election,

00:16:01.120 the terrible Chicago mayor

00:16:03.040 who in her first re-election bid 0.95

00:16:04.820 came a distant third place.

00:16:07.580 But anyways,

00:16:08.280 with that being said,

00:16:09.280 thank you guys for watching,

00:16:10.340 and I will see you guys

00:16:11.540 next time.

00:16:12.340 Thank you.

The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - October 21, 2025

Carney Liberals are ＂worried＂ budget won't pass! New Election？

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