The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - August 17, 2025


Carney Liberals blow themselves up with Air Canada fiasco!

Topics
Air Canada union dispute liberals betraying workers' rights Air Canada PR war and profits
Hosted by
Wyatt Claypool
Mentioned
Mark Carney Pierre Poilievre Jake Landau Mike Gerald Gibbs Heather McPherson Bonnie Critchley Claudia Schender Wesley Lesowski Stephen Harper Erin O'Toole Andrew Scheer Damien Couric Sherry DeNovo David Coletto Patti Hagew Patty Hayes Ontario MPP Leah Gazan Sam Hirsch Patty Haju and 3 more
Carney & Brookfield tried to buy Canadians' donated blood-plasma! Carney Liberals get hammered by Liberal MP over Air Canada strikes!

Episode Stats


Length

26 minutes

Words per minute

171.12

Word count

4,532

Sentence count

287

Harmful content

Misogyny

10

sentences flagged

Toxicity

20

sentences flagged

Hate speech

3

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

Wyatt Claypool talks about the Air Canada strike, the strike, and all the social media reaction to the strike and the government's response to it. He also talks about why the strike is a good thing for Air Canada and why the government is being a hypocrite.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
Topics generated with Qwen2.5-3B-Instruct.
Hosts, guests, and mentioned names generated with spaCy (en_core_web_sm), reconciled against Wikidata.
00:00:00.000 Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here.
00:00:02.780 So apparently this is the week that Mark Carney's Liberal government wants to blow itself up.
00:00:09.340 There is actually a real chance that this is going to cause a popularity slump for Carney and the Liberals that will not go away.
00:00:17.340 Because remember, in the 2025 federal election, the Liberal coalition was made up of a lot of people who defected from the NDP.
00:00:26.560 The NDP went from 18% in the 2021 election to around 6.6% in 2025.
00:00:35.540 Naturally, the Liberals gained around two-thirds of that with the Conservatives gaining one-third of it.
00:00:40.840 The Conservatives' one-third that they've taken is pretty secure.
00:00:44.780 The Conservatives have become a more blue-collar kind of a party.
00:00:48.940 Pierre Polyev tends to represent those blue-collar workers quite well compared to previous Conservative leaders like Aaron O'Toole and Andrew Scheer.
00:00:57.280 But for the Liberals, now that they have decided to go after the unions on the Air Canada issue,
00:01:05.260 they are going to be pushing a lot of people back towards the NDP.
00:01:10.000 So I'm going to get into all the details here and go over all the social media reaction because the social media reaction does matter.
00:01:16.500 There are so many people I know voted Liberal who are saying they are ripping up their membership and going back to the NDP.
00:01:23.580 But before we get into it, guys, I just want to remind you, if you like the show, make sure to leave a like on this video,
00:01:29.500 subscribe to the channel if you are not yet a subscriber,
00:01:32.480 and leave a comment on what you think about the situation.
00:01:35.600 It helps us on the algorithm, and I do like to go through and read what people are saying.
00:01:40.000 Anyways, our story here will start with our Transportation Minister, Patti Hagew, who used to be our Health Minister.
00:01:48.560 She was equally unqualified for that, but that's never gotten in her way in politics, so she is now in this position.
00:01:55.560 And she said this the other day.
00:01:58.600 This was on August 16th in the middle of the day.
00:02:01.480 It says, please see my statement on my decision to exercise my authorities under Section 107 of the Canada Labor Code
00:02:08.860 to direct the Canada Industrial Relations Board to arbitrate the dispute between CUPE Air Canada flight attendants and Air Canada.
00:02:18.260 And actually, she might be the Labor Minister here. 1.00
00:02:21.160 Yeah, Minister of Jobs and Families. 0.97
00:02:22.820 But the thing is, like, this, the Liberals' position on this Air Canada dispute is the dumbest one they could have found.
00:02:32.240 Every other party, every other faction in politics, whether it's a party, it's some sort of, you know, policy group, 0.96
00:02:39.380 or some sort of interest group, or even just individual commentators,
00:02:43.180 have all taken more intelligent positions on this dispute than Carney's Liberals have.
00:02:48.880 So, all of this started with the CUPE Air Canada flight attendants declaring that they were going to go on strike.
00:02:57.300 They are not paid for all the hours they are working, and so they are going to strike in order to get all those times
00:03:03.600 where the plane is not off the ground as paid hours for their jobs.
00:03:08.920 And now, it sounds like, oh, that's crazy.
00:03:10.900 You're only paid for the hours you're in the air.
00:03:13.220 To be fair, Air Canada does pay quite a bit per hour that the plane is actually in the air.
00:03:19.320 And so, it's not like people are only getting, like, 30 an hour, and they're only being paid two hours a day.
00:03:24.620 There's been some numbers going around that aren't quite accurate.
00:03:27.740 Even in this case, I'm going to say both Air Canada and CUPE are both wrong.
00:03:33.380 The unions are wrong, and Air Canada are wrong. 0.68
00:03:35.780 And the person that is most wrong is the current government, because the air industry sucks to work in. 0.98
00:03:42.760 It sucks to be a flight attendant. 0.99
00:03:44.860 It sucks to be a pilot. 0.99
00:03:46.140 It sucks to be an airline itself. 0.99
00:03:48.140 And it sucks to fly in an airline. 0.80
00:03:50.260 So, really, all this comes back down to bad federal policy.
00:03:54.360 You would think that airlines are, you know, a vital transportation network in Canada, so they would be subject to lower taxes.
00:04:01.400 No, no, no.
00:04:02.020 They are subject to some of the highest taxes in Canada, because they pay corporate taxes, airport fees, you have to charge your customers security costs, baggage handling fees, you have to pay rent for your terminal slots.
00:04:15.540 It is crazy.
00:04:16.940 Air Canada only has a profit margin of 5.7%.
00:04:21.080 Now, that doesn't mean that flight attendants were not also being screwed over.
00:04:25.880 They were, but it's not because of the airlines exactly.
00:04:29.540 It's, in fact, because of bad government policy, as well as their own unions actually negotiating the contract that they already had.
00:04:37.280 So, a lot of people are being hypocritical in this situation, but the liberals are coming out of it the worst,
00:04:42.880 because they have taken the position that flight attendants must go back to work, and basically the Air Canada must negotiate and come up with some deal.
00:04:53.060 Like, they've ticked off everyone while not even having a good point to make.
00:04:57.580 Their own policy will not be better in the long run.
00:05:00.680 It's not even good in the short run.
00:05:02.620 It's just all around bad.
00:05:04.580 So, now, I just want to go through some of the other things floating around, things that have happened since all this,
00:05:11.840 as well as reaction from different political individuals and whatnot.
00:05:16.380 So, let's just start off with what CUPE National said.
00:05:20.300 So, this is the National Canadian Union of Public Employees.
00:05:24.500 It is technically, you know, CUPE represents these flight attendants, even though it's usually public employees for this union.
00:05:31.660 But, CUPE National yesterday said the liberal government has invoked Section 107 of the Canada Labor Code to end a strike by Air Canada flight attendants fighting to end unpaid work and poverty wages.
00:05:44.360 And, as it goes on, it says stuff like, in the quotes here,
00:05:47.600 the liberals have talked out of both sides of the mouth.
00:05:50.380 They have said the best place for this is at the bargaining table.
00:05:55.700 They refuse to correct this historic injustice through legislation,
00:05:58.480 said Wesley Lesowski, president of Air Canada, component of CUPE.
00:06:04.300 Quote,
00:06:04.600 Now, when we are at the bargaining table with an obstinate employer,
00:06:10.460 the liberals are violating our charter rights to take job action,
00:06:13.760 give Air Canada exactly what they want,
00:06:16.180 hours and hours of unpaid labor from underpaid flight attendants,
00:06:20.620 while the company pulls in sky-high profits and extraordinary executive compensations.
00:06:25.160 Well, if they mean sky-high profits as in the typical profit margin for an airline, they are correct.
00:06:31.080 The airlines make sky-high airline profits, which are 5.7%.
00:06:35.680 The airlines are not making money hand over fist. 1.00
00:06:38.600 So, CUPE is just being stupid in this whole situation. 1.00
00:06:42.940 They were the ones who negotiated the bad deal in the first place, 1.00
00:06:46.260 and yet there was no accountability from them.
00:06:49.100 Regardless, though, the liberals, again, are not fixing the problems.
00:06:52.620 They're not helping out the airlines to then make it easier for them to pay flight attendants more, 0.84
00:06:57.480 which is what you should be doing here.
00:06:58.920 Give them a much lower corporate tax rate, 0.94
00:07:01.400 reduce a lot of the stupid fees that they have to pay to airports 0.96
00:07:04.000 that the government actually just takes, 0.97
00:07:05.800 oftentimes, to put into general revenues,
00:07:08.640 and then force the flight attendants back. 0.99
00:07:11.100 You have to do those three things at the same time.
00:07:12.960 Get the laws changed to help the flight attendants out,
00:07:16.680 get the flight attendants back to work,
00:07:18.160 and make it easier for Air Canada and other airlines to be able to pay their employees.
00:07:23.080 But the liberals have taken the worst possible approach,
00:07:26.620 which is now giving a lot of room for the NDP. 0.59
00:07:30.080 Here is Leah Gazan,
00:07:32.780 who is going after one of the few NDP MPs remaining,
00:07:36.400 saying,
00:07:36.680 I was proud to join the picket line with Air Canada flight attendants in Winnipeg this morning,
00:07:41.500 calling out the liberal government who is forcing binding arbitration.
00:07:45.540 It's making sure workers' rights are upheld not of national interest,
00:07:49.200 isn't ensuring that flight attendants are not forced to work an average of 35 unpaid hours a month
00:07:54.220 not of national interest,
00:07:56.700 and it goes on like this.
00:07:58.260 They're attacking,
00:07:59.460 she attacks Mark Carney and Patty Hayes you directly.
00:08:02.860 This is kind of what the NDP was waiting for,
00:08:05.840 because the NDP is not run by very smart people.
00:08:08.840 They need a very obvious thing to jump on board with,
00:08:12.260 because they tend to still be quite cowardly in the aftermath of the Jagmeet Singh era of their party.
00:08:17.860 And I'm happy to see this,
00:08:19.060 because you are going to see a lot of the NDP start gaining a lot of attention and support again.
00:08:27.940 Now, I might even bring the whiteboard in later on in this video
00:08:30.920 to show what I theorize as what's going to be the split.
00:08:34.240 I at least see a third of NDP voters in the 25 election going back to the NDP now,
00:08:40.600 exclusively coming out of the liberal support base.
00:08:43.600 And stuff like this is why you are having NDP activists,
00:08:48.260 left-wingers who maybe even voted liberal in this last election,
00:08:52.380 now turning their guns directly on to the liberals.
00:08:55.400 This, by the way, also completely shields Pierre Polyev from any news cycle
00:09:00.540 that will try and make whatever the outcome in the Battle River Crowfoot by-election
00:09:04.080 out to be a big failure on his part.
00:09:06.740 You know, if he comes in with 68%,
00:09:08.680 and yeah, it's a fall off from where Damien Couric was,
00:09:11.580 who cares?
00:09:12.360 Mark Carney and the liberals are in a big,
00:09:15.680 are stuck in this big controversy around Air Canada.
00:09:20.060 And really, it's a by-election.
00:09:21.720 Who cares what your votes were?
00:09:23.040 Polyev's not even going to run there again.
00:09:24.500 But this guy Sam Hirsch says,
00:09:26.960 this is from Mark Carney's platform.
00:09:29.520 The liberal party loves to constantly tout the charter
00:09:32.060 as their crowning achievement,
00:09:33.980 but consistently breaches one of their most fundamental rights workers have.
00:09:40.180 They respect the charter when it's convenient for their corporate buddies.
00:09:43.780 And you're seeing a lot of this corporate buddies type talk come out of this,
00:09:47.680 that the liberals are now the corporate party,
00:09:50.420 which is kind of true.
00:09:51.860 They're just high spending.
00:09:55.120 They're just like the high spending version.
00:09:58.360 How do you know how to put this?
00:10:00.000 They are corporate in a lot of ways.
00:10:01.960 They're just like the big finance party.
00:10:04.960 When I say finance, I mean like,
00:10:07.240 they're like the NDP,
00:10:08.640 but they try and make finance guys a little bit happier.
00:10:11.700 Because, you know, they import a lot of cheap labor.
00:10:15.520 They try to keep the economy pumping with a lot of money always being injected into it.
00:10:19.860 It's not good economics, but if you're in finance, you may be happy.
00:10:23.720 You're probably still happier with the conservatives,
00:10:25.600 but you'll get a lot of, you know,
00:10:27.620 socially liberal guys in downtown Toronto who like the liberals
00:10:30.840 because they give them, you know,
00:10:32.640 generally the economic conditions they like with the social policy they like.
00:10:36.280 And those sort of guys never vote NDP.
00:10:40.060 But now let's just look at some other stuff
00:10:43.040 that we've been seeing people sound off on.
00:10:46.340 Here's Don Davies reacting to the QP National Post.
00:10:50.000 He says,
00:10:50.680 Once again, the liberal government violates workers' rights to free collective bargaining.
00:10:56.180 Once again, it interferes on behalf of management.
00:10:59.660 Once again, it harms workers trying to gain better work conditions.
00:11:02.540 In this case, mostly women forced to work for free. 1.00
00:11:05.780 Utterly shameful.
00:11:06.880 And naturally, because Don Davies is the NDP leader,
00:11:10.600 he has to throw in some identity politics there.
00:11:13.880 And I want to, this is great.
00:11:16.540 This thing I just saw from yesterday,
00:11:19.680 Jake Landau, he, him,
00:11:22.400 very much a leftist who voted liberal in the last election,
00:11:25.500 says,
00:11:26.320 The repeated violation of workers' rights should have been enough.
00:11:29.200 The complicity with Trump's regime in America should have been enough.
00:11:33.180 The supply of weapons to fuel Israel's genocide should have been enough. 0.59
00:11:37.040 I should have left the federal liberals a long ago.
00:11:42.760 I'm doing it now.
00:11:44.020 And then he said below,
00:11:45.260 Yes, I'm canceling my membership in the federal party on Monday when the office opens.
00:11:49.900 I love it.
00:11:50.660 I love all the liberals regretting their votes now
00:11:52.980 and having all of them siphoned back to the NDP.
00:11:56.200 Jake Landau in this other post says,
00:11:57.500 I'm a Unifor member, part of the Canadian Freelancer Union. 0.90
00:12:01.480 I expect Unifor to refuse endorsements to every single liberal MP in the next cycle.
00:12:07.600 And I love it.
00:12:08.880 I love all the infighting.
00:12:10.680 Lana Payne says,
00:12:11.820 The federal government's message today to big federal employers,
00:12:15.560 don't worry about having to bargain.
00:12:17.440 We got you.
00:12:18.400 My message to those employers and federal government,
00:12:20.920 we will always, and I mean always,
00:12:22.800 defend the right to strike and to fair and free collective bargaining.
00:12:25.700 I don't even know.
00:12:28.460 Like these people realize they're probably going to even get what they want from the liberals.
00:12:31.500 The liberals will probably eventually just dump a bunch of money onto the situation 0.99
00:12:35.000 and try and solve it rather than fixing their own bad policy or lowering taxes.
00:12:40.100 That's just naturally their style.
00:12:41.680 But the fact that this is causing a civil war is great for the conservatives overall.
00:12:46.560 And yeah, here's another one.
00:12:51.160 Syntheticus Humanitas, who is actually a fairly big account when it comes to Canadian politics,
00:12:56.760 even though it's an anonymous account.
00:12:58.520 They say,
00:12:59.060 Maybe it's unreasonable of me, but I expect my liberal government to be liberal, actually.
00:13:03.820 Union busting isn't liberal.
00:13:05.480 Austerity isn't liberal.
00:13:06.920 Tax cuts for the rich aren't liberal.
00:13:08.580 I don't even know where they've given any tax cuts to any rich people.
00:13:13.060 If anything, their tax cuts are really pathetic, and they're only like 1% on people's first $50,000.
00:13:18.760 And they finish up by saying, 0.89
00:13:20.160 My liberal government is betraying its entire raison d'etre.
00:13:23.600 And then we have the NDP's party officially saying,
00:13:27.080 New Democrats stand with flight attendants calling for an end to poverty, wages, and unpaid work.
00:13:31.900 We have Sherry DeNovo, a former NDP Ontario MPP, saying,
00:13:36.920 Fact, a former Air Canada legal counsel will be the one ruling on binding arbitration.
00:13:43.160 No conflict of interest there.
00:13:44.980 Sorry, Mark Carney, what were you thinking?
00:13:47.440 Maybe we passengers are expected to start tipping attendants so they can make their rent.
00:13:52.240 But this Brooke person, I do like this, I mixed this one in earlier today.
00:13:57.520 I'm just going through my bookmarks on this subject, and this was hilarious.
00:14:01.400 This Brooke, proud Canadian person says,
00:14:03.540 Positive thought, two days until Bonnie Critchley wins the by-election in Battle River Crowfoot.
00:14:09.380 And the reason I love that is they obviously, one, it's not true.
00:14:12.780 And two, they only posted that because of the current crisis occurring for the liberals.
00:14:18.160 Mark Carney and the liberals are being dragged right now.
00:14:20.800 Yes, I don't think QP is right.
00:14:23.520 I don't think Air Canada is right.
00:14:24.860 I don't think the government's right.
00:14:26.020 I think they are all equally wrong.
00:14:28.160 And that's why we need a policy change to actually fix the real fundamental problems here.
00:14:33.140 But somebody was correct in pointing out, and although a lot of people have said this,
00:14:38.220 that the unions are absolutely winning the PR war right now.
00:14:41.820 And the liberals, seeing Air Canada losing, decide to throw their lot in with Air Canada.
00:14:48.860 And again, I'm not unsympathetic to Air Canada.
00:14:51.580 5.7% profit margins, massive amounts of taxes you pay.
00:14:55.440 In an industry that's pretty difficult to operate in, like 5.7% profit margin is like what credit card companies are getting on transactions.
00:15:03.620 I know that's more, but considering how easy it is to be a credit card company and how difficult it is to be an airline, it's really not worth it in a lot of ways.
00:15:13.840 But let's move on here.
00:15:15.880 Another one from Leah Gazan saying,
00:15:18.020 Here's Claudia Schender, who is the leader of the Nova Scotia NDP, who says,
00:15:30.080 Flight attendants should be paid for their entire shift, but today the Liberal government imposed back-to-work legislation on a mostly female workforce who are literally forced to work for free for a part of every single shift. 0.99
00:15:42.660 And this is a great, actually, I'm going to skip up to something else here.
00:15:48.020 I love posts like this because this guy has so much hate.
00:15:51.680 He has a big Liberal account, and all the more left-leaning Liberals ended up attacking him on their way out to go join the NDP again.
00:16:00.760 Because obviously what this guy is saying is just so, I don't know, just mindless.
00:16:06.340 It's so mindlessly partisan.
00:16:08.240 The issue isn't about the issue.
00:16:10.160 In fact, actually the issue is about the United States.
00:16:13.480 It's actually about how we should all rally around the Liberal Party and ignore all this Air Canada stuff.
00:16:20.080 But Mike Gerald Gibbs says,
00:16:22.140 In case you didn't know, we are in the middle of a devastating trade war.
00:16:27.060 Our economy is hanging on by a thread.
00:16:29.940 We cannot afford an Air Canada strike.
00:16:32.020 I support the union, but I also support the government stepping in because the circumstances are so extreme.
00:16:36.740 It's not extreme enough to actually ever lower taxes.
00:16:41.580 We can't do that because that would be a good idea.
00:16:44.560 But this guy is going to encourage the government to step in to break up the strike,
00:16:49.120 which I actually agree that the government at times really does need to break up strikes or else it becomes extortion. 0.96
00:16:55.520 But this is the dumbest time to advocate that particular strategy.
00:17:00.620 It's obviously a time when taxes need to be caught on the airlines. 0.97
00:17:05.460 Flight attendants need to be paid for their entire shifts, 1.00
00:17:07.680 although their hourly wage would then have to go down because in some cases,
00:17:11.780 flight attendants make $90 an hour, $100 an hour when the plane's in the air.
00:17:16.520 So you'd have to adjust that down.
00:17:17.780 They start being paid $60 flat across all hours they are present rather than that sort of pay.
00:17:23.520 But if you're going to do that, you got to lower their taxes and you got to reduce all the airport fees.
00:17:27.980 But now moving on.
00:17:32.580 Oh, yeah, the liberals are also being protested at their homes now by the Hamas people. 0.98
00:17:36.520 They also tried to please.
00:17:38.260 But I really liked this post by David Coletto, who, by the way, is the guy who runs Abacus Data,
00:17:44.020 the pollster I really like.
00:17:45.640 And his take on this whole situation is the Carney government may have single handedly
00:17:50.980 started a period of intense labor strife within today's decision or with today's decision.
00:17:57.040 My research clearly shows that workers are incredibly insecure.
00:18:00.840 The cost of living, housing, and precarious work, micro economic instability, and AI have created a toxic cocktail.
00:18:07.820 And unions will want to demonstrate their value in protecting their members.
00:18:11.460 He was elected to protect people, secure them, and provide more certainty.
00:18:15.200 Today, he could send the opposite signal.
00:18:19.620 And I think this is going to be a really big deal when it comes to the actual liberals' approval ratings.
00:18:26.660 As you see from 6Buzz here, it says Air Canada flight attendants today.
00:18:31.280 Sorry, Air Canada flight attendants to defy back-to-work order and stay on strike. 1.00
00:18:36.060 And then we had one of the QP leaders here, the QP national president, ripping up the order for the back-to-work.
00:18:44.760 Like, he ripped up the back-to-work order from Patty Haju here.
00:18:51.660 You can't really hear anything, but I don't think you really need to.
00:18:55.040 You get the point.
00:18:56.500 Everyone's being very bombastic.
00:18:58.040 And I would, again, criticize these people.
00:19:03.740 QP's flight attendants union for Air Canada was the one who signed the deal that they are now protesting.
00:19:09.580 Are they ever going to criticize them?
00:19:11.340 Probably not.
00:19:12.760 Because, you know, I find unions tend to be very hive-mind-like.
00:19:16.940 But here is Heather McPherson at one of the picket lines, who is the Edmonton Strathcona MP.
00:19:23.960 Of course, she is NDP, and she's likely to be running for the NDP leadership.
00:19:29.120 I am out here at the Edmonton International Airport.
00:19:31.700 I'm with the QP Air Canada flight attendants who are on strike, who are defying the government back-to-work order.
00:19:40.100 These folks are brave enough to stand up for their right.
00:19:42.820 You know, every single worker in this country deserves to get paid for the work they do.
00:19:47.680 They deserve to have a living wage. 0.99
00:19:50.260 And Air Canada is not negotiating with these workers in good faith.
00:19:53.220 And the liberal government has sold workers out without any attempt at negotiation.
00:19:59.280 Yeah, so I like this.
00:20:01.940 I'm going to keep saying I like this because it's great to see all these people fighting who usually would be united.
00:20:08.700 Like, these people were all united during the federal election to keep the conservatives out.
00:20:12.820 And now they're protesting in the streets against the liberals who they thought were going to, you know, save them from those dastardly conservatives who have, in fact, backed the flight attendants.
00:20:22.400 I think they, again, need to call for tax reform measures, too, for the airlines.
00:20:27.060 But the conservatives have been at least smart enough not to fully step in it on this issue.
00:20:32.680 They have avoided having the unions want to attack them while not being massive union shills like the NDP are.
00:20:38.380 And also not, like, antagonizing Air Canada needlessly.
00:20:43.300 They're mostly going after the federal government for being incompetent on this one.
00:20:46.760 Air Canada is shutting down operations.
00:20:49.700 One person's sign literally says bosses behind bars.
00:21:17.180 I'm not sure if you could put someone behind bars for being, you know, an employer that you don't like.
00:21:23.720 Again, 5.7% profit margin.
00:21:27.960 People can say, well, the CEO makes $12 million.
00:21:30.580 Okay, we'll redistribute his wage to every single Air Canada flight attendant, and they will all make $10 more in the year.
00:21:38.720 It's always kind of a silly contention that, like, oh, well, the guy at the top making a lot of money who's helping keep the company profitable so he don't go under,
00:21:46.560 he should be making even less.
00:21:49.040 But now I want to just quickly go over the numbers of why this is so bad for Mark Carney and his government.
00:21:55.360 Let's just go with the national numbers.
00:21:57.560 So in 2025's federal election, the Liberals scored 43% of the vote.
00:22:05.140 And I just want to put the Conservatives here at a number I think is reasonable.
00:22:08.600 I think it's reasonable to say the Conservatives right now are probably at 38% when I average between a lot of the other polls I've been seeing out there.
00:22:18.080 They're behind the Liberals, but not a massive amount.
00:22:23.000 Abacus only put them three points behind.
00:22:25.200 I think that's a little bit too good for the Conservatives right now.
00:22:28.900 You know, Liberals just got re-elected.
00:22:30.720 Let's also bring my microphone around so you guys can hear me better.
00:22:33.060 But Liberals just got re-elected.
00:22:35.220 They're in a honeymoon period.
00:22:36.500 And yes, honeymoon periods are real.
00:22:38.500 After a government gets elected, they tend to have good polling for at least several months, artificially so.
00:22:44.260 And so the Conservatives aren't three behind, but they're not like what Nanos is saying, like 12 behind, 13 behind. 0.87
00:22:50.720 That's ridiculous.
00:22:51.640 But the NDP in the last election had, remember, only 6.6% of the vote.
00:23:01.040 I'll make that dot a little bit bigger so you can see it.
00:23:03.720 Not great.
00:23:04.860 But remember, in 2021, they had 18% of the vote.
00:23:10.940 In the 2025 election, they had of the 12% that defected, it was like about, you know, 4.5% or 5% had gone to the Conservatives, and the rest went to the Liberals.
00:23:22.660 And so with that, if we assume that, like, the Liberals have in their 43%, somewhere between, you know, 7.5% to 8% NDP support, they could end up having probably about, I would guess, 3% or 4% of people in the next six months leave back to the NDP.
00:23:45.240 And we could see the NDP actually resurgent in the low 10s, around, let's just say, 10% for this case.
00:23:53.900 And we'd see the Liberals falling down to maybe 39%, because I think this is also going to rattle even some of the longer-time Liberal supporters who are not big fans, like, you know, who, they've never voted NDP before, but this whole workers issue is going to really put them off of Carney, and now they're going to conclude.
00:24:14.260 He's a very mean, mean man.
00:24:16.740 It's good to be a Conservative where you don't really have to deal with people's emotions as much when you're trying to court voters, but this is the sort of environment that the Liberals have embroiled themselves in, and now they're going to have to live with it.
00:24:28.060 And I don't doubt that in time, this is also going to be benefiting the Conservatives, because people who don't like what the Liberals did because of this, especially if they were longer-time Liberal voters and not just NDP who voted Liberal, you're going to have some of those Liberals being disgusted by their own party, and then jump down to the Conservatives.
00:24:49.020 I do not doubt. It's kind of like the NDP voters, former NDP will go back NDP, but those kind of moderate voters between Liberal and Conservative who voted Liberal will now go over to the Conservatives.
00:25:01.280 But anyways, that should be it for this video, guys. No doubt we are going to see more and more updates on this issue.
00:25:09.680 Again, I love it. This is actually going to really hamper Mark Carney's ability to ever get re-elected.
00:25:16.200 Not because this is like a nail-in-a-coffin moment, but it really is taking the thunder out of his government really early on.
00:25:24.120 They were supposed to, you know, they haven't gotten anything done yet. Bill C-5 is not probably going to get any major projects done.
00:25:30.680 Their tax cut is pretty minimal. It doesn't really, it's probably not going to affect many people's lives that much.
00:25:36.180 What else? You know, the trade war was a complete fiasco. They've messed up on foreign policy already, identifying, like, you know, recognizing a Palestinian terror state.
00:25:48.760 It's not looking very good. And we don't even have a budget yet. We don't have a budget. And we have a $92 billion deficit.
00:25:55.920 We have a union strike affecting air travel right now, and the Liberals are taking the stupidest position on it. 0.97
00:26:02.020 But it's a bad time to be Mark Carney. And it's, you know, August. He just got elected back in April, and it's August, and he's already having his honeymoon end. 0.98
00:26:12.280 Like, Trudeau remained popular when he first got elected for, like, over a year. You know, same thing with Stephen Harper.
00:26:18.620 And now we have Carney not even living for more than three months before people realize, hey, I hate this guy. Wow.
00:26:25.760 Anyways, so that's it for me for today, guys. See you later.