The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - November 15, 2025


Carney Liberals create fake success narrative for NEW election in 2026!


Episode Stats


Length

21 minutes

Words per minute

181.99501

Word count

3,961

Sentence count

199

Harmful content

Hate speech

7

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Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

In this episode, Wyatt Claypool talks about the likelihood of an election in the spring of 2026, the polling, and the Prime Minister's re-election strategy. He also talks about why he thinks he can get a majority government in the next election.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
00:00:00.000 Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here. I don't think enough Canadians realize that right now Prime
00:00:06.720 Minister Mark Carney and his Liberal government are in re-election mode. Now if someone wants to
00:00:12.640 be pedantic they could say that all governments are always in re-election mode, but I mean more
00:00:17.440 specifically, Carney and his government are acting like there will be an election in the spring of
00:00:23.640 2026 because it is in fact likely to happen. Unless polling really starts to go against him,
00:00:30.760 I do believe that Carney thinks he can get a majority government and I also think the
00:00:35.080 Conservatives also believe that they could win the next election if it happens in the spring.
00:00:40.080 Now some have been speculating that there could be a winter election if the budget doesn't pass.
00:00:44.820 I guess if it doesn't pass we would have a winter election, but I just do not see it in the cards.
00:00:49.960 The NDP kind of have to vote for the budget even if they have a lot of deep critiques of it from a
00:00:56.740 more left-wing perspective, but the problem is the NDP is a combination of broke and without a
00:01:02.700 permanent leader. But by February or March of 2026, whenever the NDP leadership race ends,
00:01:10.340 they will have a lot more money because leadership races tend to generate a lot of money and of course
00:01:16.060 they will have a new permanent leader. Now depending on who that person is actually raises
00:01:22.040 or lowers the ability for the Liberals to win by quite a bit. The good thing for the Conservatives
00:01:27.220 though is I would say it's basically a two-to-one odds that the new leader of the NDP is going to
00:01:33.900 hurt the Liberals more than it will hurt the Conservatives. The person the Conservatives should
00:01:38.300 not want to become NDP leader is Rob Ashton. He's like a blue-collar trade unionist type guy who would
00:01:46.260 appeal a lot in places like Windsor that the Conservatives have just won for the first time
00:01:51.180 since the 1930s. The Conservatives have become a far more blue-collar populist party over the past few
00:01:58.620 years and that has dug into the NDP heavily. We used to be able to win that hardhat vote.
00:02:04.880 Now the thing is I think Rob Ashton is more of the dark horse of the riding of the leadership race
00:02:11.960 for the NDP. I don't see him winning. The person I actually see winning is either Heather McPherson
00:02:17.400 or Avi Lewis and I think the advantage goes to Heather McPherson as a current incumbent NDP MP.
00:02:24.980 There are not very many of them considering there are only seven and that's also why the NDP is likely
00:02:30.160 to go to an election no matter who ends up becoming a leader. They only have seven seats so they don't
00:02:35.940 actually need all that much money to be able to target 14 seats to try and double their seat count.
00:02:41.800 Obviously they will spend across the country but a smaller party like the NDP much like the Greens
00:02:47.620 just concentrates their money where they think they can win and that's pretty much it. They'll throw a few
00:02:53.000 thousand dollars around in other ridings with paper candidates but for the most part if they spend a
00:02:58.880 couple million dollars 90 percent of that money is going to be in a very select few ridings.
00:03:05.040 And so I want to show you guys a little bit of the polling and then also Carney's re-election strategy.
00:03:10.620 So actually we'll do the strategy first and then we'll go into the polling. We'll kind of flip-flop
00:03:14.900 between them. Talk about Carney, talk about the polling and then I want to talk about Pierre
00:03:19.160 Polyev setting his narrative out for a spring election. So this is what I mean when I say that
00:03:25.560 Carney is currently in re-election mode. He says in this post, it's time to build the
00:03:31.640 major projects that will move us from reliance to resilience, strengthen our economy, and create
00:03:37.840 high-paying careers across the country. And this is over a headline graphic of the CBC that says Carney
00:03:44.720 recommends seven major projects for approval including new mines, LNG, and hydro development.
00:03:50.760 And then underneath that there was another post from him that said it's not just what we build it's how
00:03:57.520 we build. We're building major projects sustainably in partnership with indigenous people in solidarity
00:04:04.480 with union workers and we are building Canadian with Canadian materials and technology. Sorry the way
00:04:13.420 he phrased that at the end was a bit awkward. All these major project announcements much like a lot of
00:04:18.680 the fake trade deals he is signing right now in Europe and Asia are all for show. There are some
00:04:24.220 of those, they're kind of like those achievements where nobody can tell, you know, nobody can accuse
00:04:29.220 him of faking it because it's going to, like the next election is going to happen so soon after all
00:04:34.940 these major projects are announced to be potentially fast-tracked that he can run on the fact that,
00:04:40.560 hey look, I've approved 60 new major projects across the country, even though none of them have been
00:04:46.440 completed yet and many of them were projects that were already underway and in some cases basically
00:04:52.060 already done. And he's just saying, hey, let's fast-track the last month of this project to pretend
00:04:57.200 we're doing stuff. And he's doing this because he doesn't actually have real achievements so far. The
00:05:01.980 budget sucks. He hasn't gotten a trade deal with the U.S. He's in fact taken the worst stance possible
00:05:07.180 with trying to negotiate a trade deal with the U.S., both thumbing his nose at Trump and begging.
00:05:12.600 So he's an annoying weakling in Trump's mind and Trump doesn't feel like he needs to sign a trade
00:05:18.120 deal with him. Although Trump may want to sign a trade deal for his own reasons, just simply to
00:05:22.700 help himself out in the midterms by trying to lower prices, but that's just a different conversation
00:05:27.460 for another day. Carney has already blown his promise on the trade deal considering that he had
00:05:32.820 set two different deadlines for getting a deal signed and he blew past both of them. And then there
00:05:38.140 is a lot of other stuff that's happened with the liberals where it's just kind of been a bit of a
00:05:42.320 bait and switch of what they said during the election. You know, that they're going to build
00:05:45.900 pipelines and so far we don't have a pipeline. And you now have D.C. Premier David Eby saying that he
00:05:52.140 will not allow a pipeline on the West Coast and Carney is not coming up to contradict him in any way.
00:05:57.980 It's all been very, very annoying to watch because you know that Carney is just mothing generally the
00:06:04.080 right words to keep a lot of his base on side, knowing that if he gets to a majority government in
00:06:08.960 the spring, he can just kind of ignore everyone and then do exactly what he wants. The funny thing
00:06:13.960 is the only way, the only thing that's making it even somewhat possible the liberals will build a
00:06:19.520 new pipeline, like an entirely new pipeline, is if they're in a minority government and they kind of
00:06:24.600 have to to bolster their popularity. But this is why I think that they're not even going to have to
00:06:29.500 bother trying to announce a pipeline because they think that they are going to have the support
00:06:34.400 needed to win another election. This is a Main Street poll with leaning and undecided voters
00:06:41.360 mostly taken out. Right now, Main Street has the polling 43% liberal, 39% conservative, 5% NDP,
00:06:50.980 5% block, and then you have two green, two PPC, although I do not think the PPC is going to be
00:06:56.060 getting 2%. They'll probably basically not even exist in the next election. But this is what the liberals
00:07:01.920 would be hoping the results would look like in a spring election. Now, I think this is probably
00:07:08.740 underpolling both the NDP and the bloc by a bit because unlike the April election, the thing is the
00:07:15.960 NDP is going to have a much stronger narrative to vote for them because they can say that the liberals
00:07:20.920 are betraying the blue-collar working-class voter, the public sector employee because they are cutting
00:07:27.680 service spending, they're cutting personnel in Ottawa-Gatineau and whatnot, they may be able to
00:07:33.320 make, spin that narrative in order to, you know, pick up a bunch of more, a bunch more seats. And
00:07:38.440 the Bloc Quebecois, because of the way they've been treated in the budget, they could say, oh, Quebec's
00:07:42.380 being ignored and Carney is spending a bunch of money, but it's all for Ontario and it's all for
00:07:47.140 Alberta and British Columbia. No matter how inaccurate that may be, that's a BQ narrative that can 0.95
00:07:52.820 actually get them more votes. So this is what Carney is looking at, thinking that this could
00:07:58.280 actually be a good opportunity for him to win re-election. I want to go down to show you the
00:08:03.700 results with all the undecides removed. 44 to 40 would, in fact, give the liberals potentially a
00:08:11.560 majority government. I'm not trying to freak anyone out, that's just the reality of the situation there.
00:08:16.540 Obviously, again, if they call the election, I think their polling will fall. If the opposition calls
00:08:21.800 the election, then I think it depends on what the opposition basically called no confidence for.
00:08:29.360 If they call no confidence for a silly reason, then it actually may help the liberals. If there
00:08:34.800 is some stupid piece of legislation that comes up and no confidence gets called in the liberals, it
00:08:39.940 actually may even help the opposition that they were the ones who called the election effectively.
00:08:44.680 But now I want to jump over to Pierre Polyev at a press conference yesterday, kind of laying out
00:08:50.420 his oppositional narrative against the liberals when it comes to something started playing on my
00:08:58.080 computer. I don't like that. This is Pierre Polyev setting up his oppositional narrative to why the
00:09:03.660 liberals are doing such a bad job on the economy.
00:09:06.940 49.6. Now, those are a lot of numbers, but here's let's cut right down to it. To be a double A rated
00:09:12.980 country, on average, your debt to GDP is 49.6%. Carney's on track to bring ours to nearly 100%.
00:09:22.760 In other words, our debt as a share of GDP will be almost twice the size of the average double A 0.95
00:09:28.360 country. That's the kind of fiscal mess that Mark Carney and the liberals are creating so much for
00:09:34.680 the he's gone from promising to be a brilliant economist to being the most costly, reckless and
00:09:41.300 risky prime minister in Canadian history. And that is why conservatives will oppose it. But we not
00:09:46.440 only oppose, we propose. Our proposal is to cut bureaucracy, consultants, foreign aid, corporate
00:09:54.300 welfare, handouts to phony refugees and other wasted money so we can bring down debt, taxes and inflation.
00:10:01.720 We would get rid of the industrial carbon tax to unlock the industrial engine of our nation and to
00:10:09.440 reduce the price of everything made with steel, aluminum, cement, concrete, glass. That is
00:10:15.620 everything that we buy. We will cap government spending for a dollar for dollar law requiring
00:10:20.720 we find one dollar of savings for every new dollar of spending. We'll make this the fastest place on
00:10:25.860 earth to get a building permit.
00:10:27.080 I don't need to have him going on too much there. But effectively, what Polyev is doing is really,
00:10:36.720 really trying to differentiate himself compared to how he ran back in April of 2025. My biggest ongoing
00:10:42.780 criticism with how the conservatives ran the 2025 election was they ran too much as tinkerers rather
00:10:49.220 than transformational change makers in the sense that they're like, well, if you put us into government,
00:10:53.940 we'll lower tax a little bit more than Carney is under $50,000. We're going to change a little bit
00:11:00.200 of the immigration system. We're going to change a little bit of this. But since that election,
00:11:04.220 I can give Polyev a lot of credit that he has significantly lowered how much he would want
00:11:09.300 immigration down. He wants it to now be net negative migration, that he wants more people 1.00
00:11:14.000 leaving the country every year than coming into the country. That doesn't mean zero immigration. So if
00:11:18.680 someone has a skill that we want, we can still bring them in. But in general, we need more TFWs,
00:11:24.220 we need more foreign students, we need more criminal permanent residents leaving than we were 1.00
00:11:30.120 bringing in. Now on fiscal issues, he's actually talking about slashing spending, which is great.
00:11:37.220 Yes, people are going to attack him for wanting to lower spending. But with the voters that the
00:11:41.940 conservatives need, they are not scared about the fact that you're going to be reducing the amount
00:11:46.360 of spending in government. They are in fact, happy that you will reduce the amount of spending.
00:11:50.880 And I think that the promise especially of reducing all of the funding of fake refugees 0.91
00:11:55.120 is a fantastic one. Immigration is a fantastic issue for the conservatives. And affordability is
00:12:00.880 a great issue for the conservatives. They need to run on a 15-20% tax cut across all brackets. They
00:12:08.740 need to run on a very, very strong immigration reduction. He generally already is. And then I think 0.99
00:12:15.100 what they also need to do is run on anti-corruption. Because Carney has actually given the conservatives
00:12:22.260 and the NDP and the bloc a very good narrative to run on, both when it comes to his conflicts of
00:12:28.340 interest, which are another issue to cover on another day. You know, one of the LNG projects that Carney
00:12:33.200 approved was with Blackstone and another company, Northern Perspectives, went over this. And those are
00:12:38.780 two of the companies. The two companies that basically fully, like, making up the majority
00:12:44.160 of the capital for one of the LNG projects that his major projects office may fast-track
00:12:49.340 is literally one that is a conflict of interest with Carney's investments. Now, I don't know how much
00:12:55.880 money he actually has at stake. I disagree a little bit when Northern Perspectives says, oh, he might be
00:13:01.160 fast-tracking these projects because it could make him very, very rich. When you have as many investments
00:13:05.720 as Carney, it could be that he only has, like, a few thousand dollars or ten thousand dollars in
00:13:10.860 those companies. And in general, even if those companies go up by, you know, five or six percent
00:13:15.380 in the stock market, it's not exactly making him money hand over fist. The problem is, are they
00:13:20.600 friends of his? And is he giving them special treatment because they are friends? Because, you
00:13:24.020 know, he's an investor and he's met them and now they can go straight to the PMO in order to get
00:13:28.480 special favors. That's more of the problem for me. I don't think he's exactly becoming
00:13:32.420 fabulously wealthy off of that deal. Again, it's the conflict of allowing people that you know to
00:13:38.760 potentially get a fast-track other people aren't allowed to have. But this is the other thing that
00:13:43.580 every party should be seizing on the Conservatives are. I will read this post by Polyev and then
00:13:50.200 we will move on to kind of, like, why I think this will be a big election issue.
00:13:55.720 So here Polyev says,
00:13:59.880 the budget watchdog who called Carney's deficit stupefying and sounded the alarm
00:14:05.560 on his questionable accounting, Carney's response after releasing the costliest budget ever
00:14:11.160 is to remove him. Canadians deserve independent oversight, not a government that avoids scrutiny
00:14:16.880 while piling on debt, deficits, and inflation. So here you can see the headlines from the Hill
00:14:22.940 Times and the Global News about Carney dumping Jason Jocks as the interim PBO. Now, your interim
00:14:33.040 PBO obviously is not going to be the permanent PBO unless you then appoint him as the permanent
00:14:38.160 one. But the person's term is six months. I believe Jason Jocks has only been the interim
00:14:47.280 PBO since, like, September or maybe October. He hasn't been in the role for very long. And he's
00:14:53.960 supposed to be in the role for six months to give you ample time to find a suitable permanent
00:14:59.700 replacement. You don't speedrun this thing. You want it to be a very slow and deliberate decision.
00:15:07.860 And this guy has been the assistant to the former PBO for a while. He has been working in government
00:15:12.920 and nonpartisan roles. He's not some sort of fire-breathing conservative. I'm not sure what
00:15:17.860 his politics are. But because, and I talked about this in a video yesterday, because he called out
00:15:24.040 the Liberals for having just shockingly bad spending, sounding the alarm about how much debt servicing
00:15:30.400 costs are going to cost Canadian taxpayers in the next few years, they are now removing him because
00:15:35.580 they don't want any opposition. Carney, this is actually one of those things that kind of reveals
00:15:41.360 Carney's attitude towards accountability. He really dislikes people questioning him. That's also why he
00:15:48.440 hates being in a minority government situation so much. He hates having to ask permission. He hates
00:15:54.380 people being able to critique his work. And so I think Polyev in an election and all the other parties
00:16:00.040 need to just keep needling Carney about running this massive budget, having the failing on trade,
00:16:07.040 and now trying to cover up how bad they're doing by firing the PBO. They fired the PBO should be one
00:16:14.180 of the biggest, like, should be just a constant news headline, should be a constant, like, talking point
00:16:20.240 by the conservatives. They ran a massive deficit with $55 billion per year in debt servicing costs,
00:16:27.920 55, 54, somewhere around there. And then they got rid of the PBO because they didn't want people to
00:16:33.080 know about it. They didn't want the watchdog for financial spending to actually be able to call
00:16:39.600 them out. That is absolutely ridiculous. And this is absolutely part of Carney's re-election plan,
00:16:45.340 but I think the conservatives can turn it around on him. Carney is trying to clear the decks, get
00:16:50.060 everyone out of his way because he wants only happy-sounding news for the next six months before
00:16:54.840 an election may be called. He just needs it to just sound like nothing's wrong. Look at all these
00:17:00.680 new projects I've announced. Look at all these fake trade deals. Everything's great. Hey, look,
00:17:05.400 we just gave you $400 back on your taxes, which is obviously, like, nothing. But he wants to just
00:17:12.020 kind of nickel and dime you with a lot of miniature fake achievements, as if it matters at all. He's,
00:17:18.020 look, oh, look, 200 things I've done since I became prime minister. No doubt if you go through a list
00:17:23.600 of anything he'll say he achieved, he'll be like 90% either completely unsubstantial or fake. But
00:17:30.420 remember, a lot of voters don't pay that much attention. And when we looked at that polling,
00:17:35.080 a lot of people are willing to just throw in with the government they just re-elected because, oh,
00:17:39.320 well, you know, they've only been given six months or eight months. So as a Canadian, it's kind of your
00:17:44.020 duty to inform more people around you that they haven't actually achieved anything. They announce a lot
00:17:50.420 of stuff. But announcing a project doesn't make the project happen. It's deeply cynical,
00:17:56.080 this new major projects office, because all it effectively is a propaganda ministry.
00:18:01.540 All these projects could have been fast-tracked by the PMO. But he just wanted to create a new
00:18:06.180 major projects office to make it sound like he's taking things seriously. And I'm going to bring up
00:18:10.440 this global news story. Oh, my goodness, guys. Losing my voice very late in the video. But I wanted
00:18:18.800 to show you this line from this global news article that I actually was trying to show yesterday. But
00:18:25.680 I was just trying to find the exact line from it. And I think I found it. We had the CEO right here,
00:18:33.240 the CEO of the major projects office kind of gave the game away when it came to all of these
00:18:38.220 announcements. Right here in the global news story, it says, appearing before the House of
00:18:43.180 Commons standing committee on environment and sustainable development last month, major projects
00:18:48.120 office CEO Don Farrell told MPs the stage at which a particular project sits will be one of the
00:18:54.940 factors considered when it is reviewed. They don't mean like a project that has not been started yet
00:19:01.360 maybe needs some priority to be fast-tracking because it could save the most time to fast-track
00:19:06.300 a new project rather than try and fast-track an old project that's kind of already underway.
00:19:11.780 No, no, no. Don Farrell means the reverse. They are fast-tracking projects that are least in need
00:19:17.740 of a fast-track. Maybe, yeah, you could say that they've been moth, these projects have been
00:19:22.660 mothballed and they've been sitting around a lot. No, they're not, fast-tracking a project has not 0.64
00:19:27.920 been able to be begun for five years or ten years. They're fast-tracking projects that in many cases
00:19:33.740 are almost done anyways. It's just the final stage and they're going to fast-track the final stage of
00:19:39.480 some project that was probably going to be approved pretty quickly anyways. It is just trying to get
00:19:44.820 good news slapped up on the walls of Paris to make the people happy. Oh, wow, guys, look, the
00:19:50.260 revolution's going great because we fast-tracked a new LNG, like a terminal expansion that we were
00:19:57.020 already going to do anyways and which was already halfway done. Or the one new project they're
00:20:02.580 actually fast-tracking from the start is the Blackstone project, which is kind of sketchy that
00:20:07.960 Carney's friends are the only ones who are actually getting a brand new proposed project from 2024
00:20:13.500 Fast Track now, where all the other ones are these minor expansions and things that had been begun
00:20:19.040 back in like 2015, 2017, 2013 in some cases. They're also trying to build a new port in Surrey or
00:20:25.920 something like that, or not in Surrey, but like off the coast of British Columbia, nearby Surrey.
00:20:32.980 And it's like some new pier they're going to build and it's like next to a perfectly functional pier
00:20:38.560 that doesn't need to be replaced. But they're just throwing stuff out. They're trying to appeal
00:20:43.680 to strategic demographics around the country because they're trying to cobble together
00:20:47.980 a re-election narrative that, look at all the great stuff we've done for your community.
00:20:52.840 Well, yeah, it's only like four or five years away from actually being complete. And yes,
00:20:56.680 we actually haven't done anything other than just announce that we're taking it seriously.
00:21:00.840 Hey, but think about it. We've done, look, if we turn all these announcements into bullet points,
00:21:05.520 it looks like we're doing a really good job here, even though many of these projects were already
00:21:09.900 underway under Trudeau. Yes, they were very slow and Carney's barely going to speed them up.
00:21:14.600 But think about it. It's a long list of random stuff. Anyways, so that should be it for this video,
00:21:21.200 guys. Thank you for watching. I just wanted to kind of do this general overview to get some thoughts
00:21:25.460 out on just the kind of, I guess, political terrain, the geography that currently we're sitting on
00:21:31.860 and how Carney is trying to like maneuver his way around it in order to try and arrive at like
00:21:38.340 justifying why he needs a majority government. Don't be fooled by it. All the headlines,
00:21:43.400 all the announcements at this point are effectively fake.