Carney Liberals create fake success narrative for NEW election in 2026!
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Summary
In this episode, Wyatt Claypool talks about the likelihood of an election in the spring of 2026, the polling, and the Prime Minister's re-election strategy. He also talks about why he thinks he can get a majority government in the next election.
Transcript
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Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here. I don't think enough Canadians realize that right now Prime
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Minister Mark Carney and his Liberal government are in re-election mode. Now if someone wants to
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be pedantic they could say that all governments are always in re-election mode, but I mean more
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specifically, Carney and his government are acting like there will be an election in the spring of
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2026 because it is in fact likely to happen. Unless polling really starts to go against him,
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I do believe that Carney thinks he can get a majority government and I also think the
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Conservatives also believe that they could win the next election if it happens in the spring.
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Now some have been speculating that there could be a winter election if the budget doesn't pass.
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I guess if it doesn't pass we would have a winter election, but I just do not see it in the cards.
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The NDP kind of have to vote for the budget even if they have a lot of deep critiques of it from a
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more left-wing perspective, but the problem is the NDP is a combination of broke and without a
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permanent leader. But by February or March of 2026, whenever the NDP leadership race ends,
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they will have a lot more money because leadership races tend to generate a lot of money and of course
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they will have a new permanent leader. Now depending on who that person is actually raises
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or lowers the ability for the Liberals to win by quite a bit. The good thing for the Conservatives
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though is I would say it's basically a two-to-one odds that the new leader of the NDP is going to
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hurt the Liberals more than it will hurt the Conservatives. The person the Conservatives should
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not want to become NDP leader is Rob Ashton. He's like a blue-collar trade unionist type guy who would
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appeal a lot in places like Windsor that the Conservatives have just won for the first time
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since the 1930s. The Conservatives have become a far more blue-collar populist party over the past few
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years and that has dug into the NDP heavily. We used to be able to win that hardhat vote.
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Now the thing is I think Rob Ashton is more of the dark horse of the riding of the leadership race
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for the NDP. I don't see him winning. The person I actually see winning is either Heather McPherson
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or Avi Lewis and I think the advantage goes to Heather McPherson as a current incumbent NDP MP.
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There are not very many of them considering there are only seven and that's also why the NDP is likely
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to go to an election no matter who ends up becoming a leader. They only have seven seats so they don't
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actually need all that much money to be able to target 14 seats to try and double their seat count.
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Obviously they will spend across the country but a smaller party like the NDP much like the Greens
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just concentrates their money where they think they can win and that's pretty much it. They'll throw a few
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thousand dollars around in other ridings with paper candidates but for the most part if they spend a
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couple million dollars 90 percent of that money is going to be in a very select few ridings.
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And so I want to show you guys a little bit of the polling and then also Carney's re-election strategy.
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So actually we'll do the strategy first and then we'll go into the polling. We'll kind of flip-flop
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between them. Talk about Carney, talk about the polling and then I want to talk about Pierre
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Polyev setting his narrative out for a spring election. So this is what I mean when I say that
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Carney is currently in re-election mode. He says in this post, it's time to build the
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major projects that will move us from reliance to resilience, strengthen our economy, and create
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high-paying careers across the country. And this is over a headline graphic of the CBC that says Carney
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recommends seven major projects for approval including new mines, LNG, and hydro development.
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And then underneath that there was another post from him that said it's not just what we build it's how
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we build. We're building major projects sustainably in partnership with indigenous people in solidarity
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with union workers and we are building Canadian with Canadian materials and technology. Sorry the way
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he phrased that at the end was a bit awkward. All these major project announcements much like a lot of
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the fake trade deals he is signing right now in Europe and Asia are all for show. There are some
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of those, they're kind of like those achievements where nobody can tell, you know, nobody can accuse
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him of faking it because it's going to, like the next election is going to happen so soon after all
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these major projects are announced to be potentially fast-tracked that he can run on the fact that,
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hey look, I've approved 60 new major projects across the country, even though none of them have been
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completed yet and many of them were projects that were already underway and in some cases basically
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already done. And he's just saying, hey, let's fast-track the last month of this project to pretend
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we're doing stuff. And he's doing this because he doesn't actually have real achievements so far. The
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budget sucks. He hasn't gotten a trade deal with the U.S. He's in fact taken the worst stance possible
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with trying to negotiate a trade deal with the U.S., both thumbing his nose at Trump and begging.
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So he's an annoying weakling in Trump's mind and Trump doesn't feel like he needs to sign a trade
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deal with him. Although Trump may want to sign a trade deal for his own reasons, just simply to
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help himself out in the midterms by trying to lower prices, but that's just a different conversation
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for another day. Carney has already blown his promise on the trade deal considering that he had
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set two different deadlines for getting a deal signed and he blew past both of them. And then there
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is a lot of other stuff that's happened with the liberals where it's just kind of been a bit of a
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bait and switch of what they said during the election. You know, that they're going to build
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pipelines and so far we don't have a pipeline. And you now have D.C. Premier David Eby saying that he
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will not allow a pipeline on the West Coast and Carney is not coming up to contradict him in any way.
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It's all been very, very annoying to watch because you know that Carney is just mothing generally the
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right words to keep a lot of his base on side, knowing that if he gets to a majority government in
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the spring, he can just kind of ignore everyone and then do exactly what he wants. The funny thing
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is the only way, the only thing that's making it even somewhat possible the liberals will build a
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new pipeline, like an entirely new pipeline, is if they're in a minority government and they kind of
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have to to bolster their popularity. But this is why I think that they're not even going to have to
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bother trying to announce a pipeline because they think that they are going to have the support
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needed to win another election. This is a Main Street poll with leaning and undecided voters
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mostly taken out. Right now, Main Street has the polling 43% liberal, 39% conservative, 5% NDP,
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5% block, and then you have two green, two PPC, although I do not think the PPC is going to be
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getting 2%. They'll probably basically not even exist in the next election. But this is what the liberals
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would be hoping the results would look like in a spring election. Now, I think this is probably
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underpolling both the NDP and the bloc by a bit because unlike the April election, the thing is the
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NDP is going to have a much stronger narrative to vote for them because they can say that the liberals
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are betraying the blue-collar working-class voter, the public sector employee because they are cutting
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service spending, they're cutting personnel in Ottawa-Gatineau and whatnot, they may be able to
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make, spin that narrative in order to, you know, pick up a bunch of more, a bunch more seats. And
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the Bloc Quebecois, because of the way they've been treated in the budget, they could say, oh, Quebec's
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being ignored and Carney is spending a bunch of money, but it's all for Ontario and it's all for
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Alberta and British Columbia. No matter how inaccurate that may be, that's a BQ narrative that can
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actually get them more votes. So this is what Carney is looking at, thinking that this could
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actually be a good opportunity for him to win re-election. I want to go down to show you the
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results with all the undecides removed. 44 to 40 would, in fact, give the liberals potentially a
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majority government. I'm not trying to freak anyone out, that's just the reality of the situation there.
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Obviously, again, if they call the election, I think their polling will fall. If the opposition calls
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the election, then I think it depends on what the opposition basically called no confidence for.
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If they call no confidence for a silly reason, then it actually may help the liberals. If there
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is some stupid piece of legislation that comes up and no confidence gets called in the liberals, it
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actually may even help the opposition that they were the ones who called the election effectively.
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But now I want to jump over to Pierre Polyev at a press conference yesterday, kind of laying out
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his oppositional narrative against the liberals when it comes to something started playing on my
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computer. I don't like that. This is Pierre Polyev setting up his oppositional narrative to why the
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liberals are doing such a bad job on the economy.
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49.6. Now, those are a lot of numbers, but here's let's cut right down to it. To be a double A rated
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country, on average, your debt to GDP is 49.6%. Carney's on track to bring ours to nearly 100%.
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In other words, our debt as a share of GDP will be almost twice the size of the average double A
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country. That's the kind of fiscal mess that Mark Carney and the liberals are creating so much for
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the he's gone from promising to be a brilliant economist to being the most costly, reckless and
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risky prime minister in Canadian history. And that is why conservatives will oppose it. But we not
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only oppose, we propose. Our proposal is to cut bureaucracy, consultants, foreign aid, corporate
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welfare, handouts to phony refugees and other wasted money so we can bring down debt, taxes and inflation.
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We would get rid of the industrial carbon tax to unlock the industrial engine of our nation and to
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reduce the price of everything made with steel, aluminum, cement, concrete, glass. That is
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everything that we buy. We will cap government spending for a dollar for dollar law requiring
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we find one dollar of savings for every new dollar of spending. We'll make this the fastest place on
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I don't need to have him going on too much there. But effectively, what Polyev is doing is really,
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really trying to differentiate himself compared to how he ran back in April of 2025. My biggest ongoing
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criticism with how the conservatives ran the 2025 election was they ran too much as tinkerers rather
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than transformational change makers in the sense that they're like, well, if you put us into government,
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we'll lower tax a little bit more than Carney is under $50,000. We're going to change a little bit
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of the immigration system. We're going to change a little bit of this. But since that election,
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I can give Polyev a lot of credit that he has significantly lowered how much he would want
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immigration down. He wants it to now be net negative migration, that he wants more people
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leaving the country every year than coming into the country. That doesn't mean zero immigration. So if
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someone has a skill that we want, we can still bring them in. But in general, we need more TFWs,
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we need more foreign students, we need more criminal permanent residents leaving than we were
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bringing in. Now on fiscal issues, he's actually talking about slashing spending, which is great.
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Yes, people are going to attack him for wanting to lower spending. But with the voters that the
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conservatives need, they are not scared about the fact that you're going to be reducing the amount
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of spending in government. They are in fact, happy that you will reduce the amount of spending.
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And I think that the promise especially of reducing all of the funding of fake refugees
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is a fantastic one. Immigration is a fantastic issue for the conservatives. And affordability is
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a great issue for the conservatives. They need to run on a 15-20% tax cut across all brackets. They
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need to run on a very, very strong immigration reduction. He generally already is. And then I think
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what they also need to do is run on anti-corruption. Because Carney has actually given the conservatives
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and the NDP and the bloc a very good narrative to run on, both when it comes to his conflicts of
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interest, which are another issue to cover on another day. You know, one of the LNG projects that Carney
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approved was with Blackstone and another company, Northern Perspectives, went over this. And those are
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two of the companies. The two companies that basically fully, like, making up the majority
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of the capital for one of the LNG projects that his major projects office may fast-track
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is literally one that is a conflict of interest with Carney's investments. Now, I don't know how much
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money he actually has at stake. I disagree a little bit when Northern Perspectives says, oh, he might be
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fast-tracking these projects because it could make him very, very rich. When you have as many investments
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as Carney, it could be that he only has, like, a few thousand dollars or ten thousand dollars in
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those companies. And in general, even if those companies go up by, you know, five or six percent
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in the stock market, it's not exactly making him money hand over fist. The problem is, are they
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friends of his? And is he giving them special treatment because they are friends? Because, you
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know, he's an investor and he's met them and now they can go straight to the PMO in order to get
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special favors. That's more of the problem for me. I don't think he's exactly becoming
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fabulously wealthy off of that deal. Again, it's the conflict of allowing people that you know to
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potentially get a fast-track other people aren't allowed to have. But this is the other thing that
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every party should be seizing on the Conservatives are. I will read this post by Polyev and then
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we will move on to kind of, like, why I think this will be a big election issue.
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the budget watchdog who called Carney's deficit stupefying and sounded the alarm
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on his questionable accounting, Carney's response after releasing the costliest budget ever
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is to remove him. Canadians deserve independent oversight, not a government that avoids scrutiny
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while piling on debt, deficits, and inflation. So here you can see the headlines from the Hill
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Times and the Global News about Carney dumping Jason Jocks as the interim PBO. Now, your interim
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PBO obviously is not going to be the permanent PBO unless you then appoint him as the permanent
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one. But the person's term is six months. I believe Jason Jocks has only been the interim
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PBO since, like, September or maybe October. He hasn't been in the role for very long. And he's
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supposed to be in the role for six months to give you ample time to find a suitable permanent
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replacement. You don't speedrun this thing. You want it to be a very slow and deliberate decision.
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And this guy has been the assistant to the former PBO for a while. He has been working in government
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and nonpartisan roles. He's not some sort of fire-breathing conservative. I'm not sure what
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his politics are. But because, and I talked about this in a video yesterday, because he called out
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the Liberals for having just shockingly bad spending, sounding the alarm about how much debt servicing
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costs are going to cost Canadian taxpayers in the next few years, they are now removing him because
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they don't want any opposition. Carney, this is actually one of those things that kind of reveals
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Carney's attitude towards accountability. He really dislikes people questioning him. That's also why he
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hates being in a minority government situation so much. He hates having to ask permission. He hates
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people being able to critique his work. And so I think Polyev in an election and all the other parties
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need to just keep needling Carney about running this massive budget, having the failing on trade,
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and now trying to cover up how bad they're doing by firing the PBO. They fired the PBO should be one
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of the biggest, like, should be just a constant news headline, should be a constant, like, talking point
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by the conservatives. They ran a massive deficit with $55 billion per year in debt servicing costs,
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55, 54, somewhere around there. And then they got rid of the PBO because they didn't want people to
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know about it. They didn't want the watchdog for financial spending to actually be able to call
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them out. That is absolutely ridiculous. And this is absolutely part of Carney's re-election plan,
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but I think the conservatives can turn it around on him. Carney is trying to clear the decks, get
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everyone out of his way because he wants only happy-sounding news for the next six months before
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an election may be called. He just needs it to just sound like nothing's wrong. Look at all these
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new projects I've announced. Look at all these fake trade deals. Everything's great. Hey, look,
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we just gave you $400 back on your taxes, which is obviously, like, nothing. But he wants to just
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kind of nickel and dime you with a lot of miniature fake achievements, as if it matters at all. He's,
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look, oh, look, 200 things I've done since I became prime minister. No doubt if you go through a list
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of anything he'll say he achieved, he'll be like 90% either completely unsubstantial or fake. But
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remember, a lot of voters don't pay that much attention. And when we looked at that polling,
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a lot of people are willing to just throw in with the government they just re-elected because, oh,
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well, you know, they've only been given six months or eight months. So as a Canadian, it's kind of your
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duty to inform more people around you that they haven't actually achieved anything. They announce a lot
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of stuff. But announcing a project doesn't make the project happen. It's deeply cynical,
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this new major projects office, because all it effectively is a propaganda ministry.
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All these projects could have been fast-tracked by the PMO. But he just wanted to create a new
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major projects office to make it sound like he's taking things seriously. And I'm going to bring up
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this global news story. Oh, my goodness, guys. Losing my voice very late in the video. But I wanted
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to show you this line from this global news article that I actually was trying to show yesterday. But
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I was just trying to find the exact line from it. And I think I found it. We had the CEO right here,
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the CEO of the major projects office kind of gave the game away when it came to all of these
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announcements. Right here in the global news story, it says, appearing before the House of
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Commons standing committee on environment and sustainable development last month, major projects
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office CEO Don Farrell told MPs the stage at which a particular project sits will be one of the
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factors considered when it is reviewed. They don't mean like a project that has not been started yet
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maybe needs some priority to be fast-tracking because it could save the most time to fast-track
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a new project rather than try and fast-track an old project that's kind of already underway.
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No, no, no. Don Farrell means the reverse. They are fast-tracking projects that are least in need
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of a fast-track. Maybe, yeah, you could say that they've been moth, these projects have been
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mothballed and they've been sitting around a lot. No, they're not, fast-tracking a project has not
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been able to be begun for five years or ten years. They're fast-tracking projects that in many cases
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are almost done anyways. It's just the final stage and they're going to fast-track the final stage of
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some project that was probably going to be approved pretty quickly anyways. It is just trying to get
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good news slapped up on the walls of Paris to make the people happy. Oh, wow, guys, look, the
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revolution's going great because we fast-tracked a new LNG, like a terminal expansion that we were
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already going to do anyways and which was already halfway done. Or the one new project they're
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actually fast-tracking from the start is the Blackstone project, which is kind of sketchy that
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Carney's friends are the only ones who are actually getting a brand new proposed project from 2024
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Fast Track now, where all the other ones are these minor expansions and things that had been begun
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back in like 2015, 2017, 2013 in some cases. They're also trying to build a new port in Surrey or
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something like that, or not in Surrey, but like off the coast of British Columbia, nearby Surrey.
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And it's like some new pier they're going to build and it's like next to a perfectly functional pier
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that doesn't need to be replaced. But they're just throwing stuff out. They're trying to appeal
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to strategic demographics around the country because they're trying to cobble together
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a re-election narrative that, look at all the great stuff we've done for your community.
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Well, yeah, it's only like four or five years away from actually being complete. And yes,
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we actually haven't done anything other than just announce that we're taking it seriously.
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Hey, but think about it. We've done, look, if we turn all these announcements into bullet points,
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it looks like we're doing a really good job here, even though many of these projects were already
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underway under Trudeau. Yes, they were very slow and Carney's barely going to speed them up.
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But think about it. It's a long list of random stuff. Anyways, so that should be it for this video,
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guys. Thank you for watching. I just wanted to kind of do this general overview to get some thoughts
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out on just the kind of, I guess, political terrain, the geography that currently we're sitting on
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and how Carney is trying to like maneuver his way around it in order to try and arrive at like
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justifying why he needs a majority government. Don't be fooled by it. All the headlines,
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all the announcements at this point are effectively fake.