In this episode, we discuss the dramatic decline in support for the Liberal government, and its impact on the rest of the country's political landscape. We look at three major pollsters, Abacus Data, Innovative Research, and Main Street, as well as Main Street s Main Street Research.
00:06:22.720A conservative voter tends to be, like, middle class, working class men and women, but leaning more men.
00:06:29.980Liberals tends to be older voters as well as a little bit more disproportionately women.
00:06:36.060But so the thing is with the NDP saying you have to have 50% only, you can only have up to 50% cis men signing your signature forms for its various leadership candidates.
00:06:45.620Like, you should want a candidate who comes in with mostly men because that's the demographic you are suffering with.
00:06:52.280But now let's jump down to Innovative Research.
00:06:55.400So in the last poll that Innovative Research did, which was a while ago, I'm making sure I'm not going too far past it because it's really been a while since they did one.
00:07:05.540So in the last Innovative Research poll that I can even find on the 338 Canada website, it was 43, they had it 43 for the Liberals.
00:07:23.220I'll try and write a little bit bigger as we go along.
00:07:34.140Now, in their latest poll, I don't need to fill in the NDP for you here, it just doesn't matter as much.
00:07:40.500They had the Liberals dropping down to 41 and the Conservatives rose to 39%.
00:07:47.220Now, it's not a lead like in the Abacus poll where the Conservatives started leading the Liberals by two points.
00:07:55.300But it is significant when you have them tightening at a time when it should be very easy for the Liberals to be way ahead of their opposition.
00:08:07.940And yet they are already contracting in the polls right now.
00:08:10.740Now, do you think there was a single poll that even put the Conservatives within punching distance of the Liberals after the 2015 election with Justin Trudeau?
00:08:23.780Victory tends to give you a boost in the polls conducted after the election.
00:08:28.600One, people will lie and they say they voted for the winning team because people who don't know a lot about politics don't like the idea that, oh, I voted for the wrong guys.
00:08:36.140But also you will get a lot of Conservatives or whoever is on the losing side is going to be far less likely to want to pick up the phone and tell you who they're voting for.
00:08:46.620It's just kind of embarrassing after you lost, even if it is irrational not to want to just telepolster who you're voting for because it's good public information.
00:08:54.880But now let's jump down to Main Street research.
00:08:58.460I like Main Street and I actually, like mea culpa, I thought they were so wrong during the election when they were showing the NDP and the block only at 6% or 5% for the block on some days, 4%.
00:09:10.080And then we had Election Day strike and it was 6% for the NDP.
00:09:13.900And I was like, oh, goodness, that's absolutely pathetic.
00:09:16.800But in this most recent poll, or in their last poll, they had the Liberals at 45%.
00:09:28.020They then only had the Conservatives at 36%.
00:09:37.140This is absolutely wild, the change that we have seen in this specific poll.
00:09:42.740We went from 45% for the Liberals and 36% for the Conservatives, now to being 39% for the Conservatives and 41% for the Liberals.
00:10:02.680The Liberals in this poll used to be plus 9% and now they are only plus 2%, meaning that is a literal 7% swing towards the Conservatives.
00:10:19.500And the thing is that the NDP have really not benefited that much from this.
00:10:23.460Actually, they kind of have, but they went in this poll from just having, I can erase a little bit of this just so you can see what I'm talking about here.
00:10:32.680But I think Main Street, I thought they wouldn't have been picking it up because other pollsters weren't picking it up.
00:10:40.600But Main Street shows that actually the NDP in the previous poll, and this demonstrates that the Air Canada issue is helping the NDP quite a bit.
00:10:50.880The NDP may be incompetent, but it was hard not to, it was hard to fumble that Air Canada issue.
00:10:56.620As long as they showed up and picketed, they were good.
00:10:59.880They were at 6% in the last Main Street poll in June, and now they have risen to 8 points, which would be too better than the last election and would probably gain them another 2 or 3 seats.
00:11:13.100Now, if they actually pick a competent leader like Avi Lewis, I'm sad to say Heather McPherson would actually be competent.
00:11:22.240Somebody who's just loud and they're going to be brazen, they're hyper-progressive, but they're also more of a union person, that person will end up eating into Mark Carney's support.
00:11:32.800Because Carney, and I've said this before, he has a strange ability to be on the wrong side of an issue in every way possible.
00:11:42.280Air Canada, it looked like he was siding with Air Canada against the workers, which rhetorically and aesthetically looks bad.
00:11:49.940At the same time, he wasn't even right on the policy, because he also was demanding that Air Canada still make a deal.
00:11:56.580So he's ordering the workers back to work, but he also wants Air Canada to sign some agreement, even though Air Canada really doesn't have the money to do it.
00:12:04.300It is crazy how broke a lot of the airlines are.
00:12:10.180Well, yeah, they're large corporations.
00:12:12.260But when you're Air Canada only making 5.7%, when Carney comes in as the business wizard and his solution is just sign something with the unions and make them happy and workers go back to work, not cutting taxes, you know, not trying to support our businesses, just kind of asking everyone, can the issue please go away from me?
00:12:31.880So up here, we had the liberal lead go from plus 3% to, I'll just say minus, because it's now the conservatives leading, to now negative 2.
00:12:44.560On this one, they used to be leading with innovative research by plus 5, and then, now, they're only leading by plus 2.
00:12:55.420Main Street is a much further away poll compared to the other ones where Abacus is doing a weekly poll or a by every other week poll.
00:13:03.980Main Street was only doing it every couple of months because we're kind of, you know, it's a bit of a sluggish time of year.
00:13:28.700And so this is also why I think we are seeing him currently attempting to make a deal with the Americans for trade and on trying to sign on to the Golden Dome.
00:13:40.080Because Mark Carney is quite literally lacking wins.
00:13:45.280He wants to get something on the walls of Paris right now, and he's got nothing.
00:13:49.240And so right now, with his polling deteriorating, he's actually in a dangerous position, or he's putting Canada in a dangerous position, where he may actually start trying to act rashly in order to get some sort of, like, a win.
00:14:03.840He wants to sign something, and he's going to do it carelessly.
00:14:07.680But anyways, I'm going to erase the board here, and then I want to move on to some other points I've noticed in the recent Main Street poll.
00:14:14.340I will actually be making another poll on a recent drop that Abacus did, because I thought it was very interesting as you go through some of the issue-by-issue polling.
00:14:23.840You actually see a lot of Canadians think that Mark Carney is a liar, that he is not actually who he claimed to be in the election.
00:14:31.120You know, people still may not be fully turning on him.
00:14:34.020You know, even here, 39% isn't terrible.
00:14:37.340It's not like Justin Trudeau when he had polls around 22% or 23%.
00:14:41.600But it's not great, considering that he just got back into office.
00:14:45.280But I'm going to go do that, and then I will be back with some more stuff to show you guys.
00:15:11.220Do you see yourself as a conservative?
00:15:13.540And this is kind of a big problem right now for the Liberal Party of Canada, is that as much as people were willing to cast a ballot for them this April,
00:15:23.200the thing is that not that many people actually really want to proudly align themselves with the Liberal Party.
00:15:29.040Back in around sort of like that January, February, March, April time, you know, election lead up, you would maybe be able to get low 30s of people to be able to say, oh, yeah, I'm a liberal.
00:15:41.720But as of today, you actually only have 24% of people, 24% of Canadians saying that they see themselves as a liberal person in terms of their political stances.
00:15:58.040Whereas with the Conservatives, and this is why you are going to see the Conservatives have a lot of stability over the next several years, is that 38% of Canadians see themselves as fundamentally conservative people.
00:16:13.880Now, you're going to probably have some of those people potentially voting liberal in this last election because, oh, hey, I'm trying to stop Trump and for some reason I didn't trust Paliyev.
00:16:23.200I don't think it's as many people as you would think, but you'll get some.
00:16:27.500And here is a more another interesting little tidbit you get here.
00:16:31.940There are then 21% of people who are unaligned, who don't consider themselves to be close to any party.
00:16:40.880And then with the NDP, even as the party has fallen off on this rating over the last year, just because of how poorly they performed, still you get, oh, my goodness, trying to write stuff and it's looking bad and the show feels bad if things look bad.
00:16:59.480You get 11% of people saying that they are NDP.
00:17:04.940This is the kind of troubling situation that Carney and the Liberals find themselves in because in order to put together a coalition, and while I will give the Liberals credit that they're quite good at this, they only have a quarter of people saying that they are fundamentally liberal people and predisposing them heavily to voting liberal.
00:17:24.300Where these days, 38% of people are willing to say that they are conservatives, and so I don't think you're actually going to see the conservatives ever fall down in the polls over the next couple of years.
00:17:35.560The Liberals may be able to lead them, but the thing is that there's a lot, there's a growing amount of people who see themselves as fundamentally conservative, and so they're not going to easily change who they're voting for.
00:17:47.240Whereas the Liberals, they start off with 24%, which is nothing to sneeze at, but then they need to cobble together a voting coalition with 5% from the NDP, because remember, the NDP had only gotten 6% in this last election, so we assume a lot of those people ended up going over to the Liberals in order to sort of like keep out the conservatives.
00:18:08.420It's almost like Jagmeet Singh was telling them to do that with how pathetically he was acting, and then you would have probably gotten another bunch of people who are unaligned to then also go and vote for the Liberals, and that's what ended up putting them over the top, were these two groups of people breaking hard for the Liberal Party.
00:18:27.420But look at the chart for yourself. This is quite remarkable. This is the years after. In 2022, this is back when, if we look down here, this is of course when the leadership race is going on, and O'Toole had just been ousted as the leader.
00:18:45.080You will see that the people identifying as conservatives, as Polio starts running for the leadership of the party, for the first time in a long time, conservative identity outstrips the Liberals, and then in later 2023, you then see it explode.
00:19:05.040Back here, you're only seeing around 28% of Canadians say that they're conservative, and probably about 30% saying that they're liberal, and now it has heavily reversed, even in the Carney era, when you're supposed to be all fired up with elbows up and fighting back against Donald Trump and the Americans, because the problem with that being the Liberals campaign in the last election is it's fleeting.
00:19:29.140You can't do that same trick twice. And while it's disappointing that conservatives hadn't won the last election, at least we can be satisfied in saying that you're not going to be able to have another elbows up election. That's the one little superpower that you had for that one election, and that's it. Next time you actually need a platform.
00:19:48.560And like we have seen in my reviews of Abacus Data's issue-by-issue polling, in the top nine issues, as I said yesterday in another video, in the top nine issues, the Liberals lead on two.
00:20:01.740They lead on Trump, which is a whole, which is a, technically it's still the second biggest issue for Abacus, but it's one of those ones that's declining very quickly because you can't stay mad at Trump forever. At some point you're going to realize, or at least a good portion of people are going to realize, that our country's problems are mostly made domestically and not in the United States.
00:20:23.240And then the second issue was environment, which I believe was like the seventh out of nine issues. And their second place party competing with them was actually the Greens. So it was probably just people generically saying, I guess the Green Party has a green in the name, so they're probably good for the environment. And I guess Trudeau and the Liberals were super crazy about the environment, so I guess they were the best to deal with it.
00:20:44.080But it's not a, it's not an issue that drives a lot of votes at the end of the day. Whereas with Trump, it was a, like a singular blinders on, I don't care about anything else but fighting Trump. And so that's why it helped the Liberals so much. You go through all the other issues. The top issues, the other top issues, cost of living, the economy, crime, you know, like the healthcare, all that stuff. Conservatives were leading by at least 2%, all the way up to 53%, I believe, was the number.
00:21:11.780That was their highest margin, where you would have over 60% of Canadians who presumably would have voted for other parties saying, well, yeah, if you care about immigration, or yeah, if you care about crime, conservatives are your guys. It's like, that's kind of pathetic that some of those people then voted Liberal, even though they acknowledge on the issues that actually affect your life that conservatives are better.
00:21:34.620But anyways, that should be it for me today in this video, guys. Thanks for sticking around this long to watch me ramble about polls. I just want to remind you that again, if you are in Calgary on the 19th to 21st, we have the Wii Unify Reclaiming Event at the BMO Center.
00:21:52.280If you want to buy a ticket and swing by and listen to all the other creators and organizers and policy experts talk on different issues on stage, that could be fun. Ticket link in the description below.
00:22:03.240As well as if on the 13th of September, so the other one's 19th to the 21st of this month, on the 13th of September, I will be in Abbotsford with 1BC leader Dallas Brody, and we are doing a town hall in Abbotsford.
00:22:19.580So if you want to swing by for that, you don't have to live in Abbotsford anywhere in BC if you're willing to drive out. I'd love to see you guys there. That will also be linked in the description of this video.
00:22:29.460And with that being said, thank you guys for watching, and I will see you guys next time.