The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - July 30, 2025


Carney Liberals in BIG Trouble if they don't sign US Trade Deal (polling analysis)

Hosted by
Wyatt Claypool
Mentioned
Mark Carney Justin Trudeau Bill C-63 Donald Trump Stephen Harper Convince Trump Nanos Jagmeet Singh Charlie Angus Nikki Ashton David Eby
CBC in Total Denial - Carney can't handle Trump on trade! Trump SLAMS Carney over dumb Palestine move - Trade Deal is Off!

Episode Stats


Length

16 minutes

Words per minute

184.95

Word count

3,070

Sentence count

161

Harmful content

Misogyny

4

sentences flagged

Hate speech

2

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

In this video, we take a look at Mark Carney's approval rating and the polling for the Liberal Party of Canada, and why they are in a very bad position right now. We also talk about the impact of the proposed trade deal with the United States.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
Hosts, guests, and mentioned names generated with spaCy (en_core_web_sm), reconciled against Wikidata.
00:00:00.000 Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here. It's a significant week for polling in Canadian politics and that is why we have brought out the whiteboard today
00:00:09.480 because I want to talk to you guys about Mark Carney's approval rating as well as the polling for the Liberal Party of Canada
00:00:16.980 because the trade deadline with the United States is on August 1st and all indicators show that Mark Carney is probably not going to get a trade deal signed
00:00:26.400 one of his signature promises not only from the Liberal Party leadership race but from the general election.
00:00:33.100 He said he knew how to deal with men like Donald Trump, that he was going to make sure that Canada didn't have a tariff applied to it
00:00:39.680 because he was going to go full elbows up and that was apparently going to freak out Donald Trump, the Americans,
00:00:44.460 and they're just going to bend to Mark Carney's fairly weak will. It doesn't look like that's going to happen.
00:00:50.820 So in this video, I want to show you what Mark Carney's current job approval ratings look like, what the polling looks like for the Liberal Party,
00:00:58.420 and why I think they're in a very bad position right now. Is Mark Carney's approval rating positive? Of course.
00:01:05.000 He's in his honeymoon period. He hasn't really messed anything up that publicly yet, so a lot of Canadians are giving him the benefit of the doubt.
00:01:12.940 Same thing going for the Liberal Party. Naturally, they just won the last election,
00:01:17.060 and so they were going to start up at least at their baseline percentage of the vote,
00:01:22.140 and usually you're going to gain a few percentages because, again, you just won the election,
00:01:26.580 so naturally the people picking up the phone are more likely to be Liberal,
00:01:30.360 or people are just saying, I guess I'd like the Liberals to be leading because they just won and they deserve to have another chance.
00:01:37.040 But before I get into it, I just want to plug, hey, if you like the show, make sure to leave a like on this video,
00:01:42.620 subscribe to the channel if you are not yet a subscriber,
00:01:44.900 and leave a comment on what you think, let me know if you appreciate the whiteboard.
00:01:50.220 So, I'm going to be going through an Innovative Research poll today.
00:01:54.340 It's one of my favorite pollsters.
00:01:56.240 Abacus Data and Innovative Research are the two I find to be most accurate.
00:02:01.140 Right now, Nanos has the Liberals leading their polls by like 14% or 15%.
00:02:06.120 Again, I'm not telling you just doubt a poll that you don't like the results of,
00:02:10.960 but when a poll comes out and shows you that now only 30% of people would vote Conservative if an election was held,
00:02:17.660 don't believe it.
00:02:18.960 Really, the Conservatives went from 41.5% on Election Day on April 28th, 2025,
00:02:24.480 and now in late July suddenly like 11% of people don't like them anymore really isn't how polling works.
00:02:32.260 You have a lot of depressed Conservatives based on the sample size Nanos is running and who are not answering it,
00:02:38.100 so you just have a lot more people voting Liberal.
00:02:40.540 What Innovative does really well is they make sure they have a good mix of people who voted Conservative
00:02:45.180 and voted Liberal and didn't vote in the last federal election, so it knows it isn't oversampling.
00:02:50.480 But a point I'm going to make right away is that Mark Carney does not have as high an approval rating
00:02:56.280 as Stephen Harper or Justin Trudeau did when they first got into office.
00:03:01.080 Right now, I see Mark Carney's approval rating anywhere between 52%,
00:03:06.760 and sorry if I'm not the best writer, and also 57%.
00:03:12.440 57% is what I see in this poll for Mark Carney's personal approval rating.
00:03:17.700 This doesn't matter too much, but note that that is right now his current approval range.
00:03:22.780 What did Justin Trudeau have?
00:03:24.240 He had 62% approval, and Stephen Harper had a 61% approval.
00:03:31.920 They were much better liked in their first few months, whereas Mark Carney has a lot more skepticism.
00:03:37.460 But the thing I want to move on to right now is specifically his approval rating for the direction
00:03:43.580 that he is taking the country in, because this is interesting.
00:03:47.040 A lot of people are saying that it shows that he has a lot of strength,
00:03:49.880 but right now, in Canada, the amount of people who say that we are going in the right direction
00:03:55.720 is 56%, which I would actually say is a good percentage of people
00:04:02.740 saying that things are going in the right direction.
00:04:05.580 But in this innovative research poll, when you look a little bit below the surface,
00:04:10.300 how many people are strongly saying that we're going in the right direction,
00:04:13.900 and how many are somewhat saying that we're going in the right direction?
00:04:16.640 Strongly is only 17% of that.
00:04:22.260 And people saying that we're somewhat going in the right direction, it's 39%.
00:04:27.600 So if you're only at 56% of people thinking that we are going in the right direction,
00:04:33.920 right before we're about to not sign a trade deal, one of your signature promises,
00:04:39.200 you're going to see the amount of people thinking that we're not going in the right direction
00:04:43.700 balloon significantly.
00:04:47.820 Another thing that indicates that Mark Carney's not in a great rhetorical position
00:04:52.980 for when there's no trade deal signed, is one of his supposedly signature pieces of legislation
00:04:59.820 was Bill C-5.
00:05:02.280 And this innovative research poll asked people if they were even aware of what Bill C-5
00:05:06.980 and could they explain it.
00:05:08.620 Of people saying that they were familiar with that piece of legislation,
00:05:12.740 there was only 39% saying they're familiar.
00:05:18.360 And in that 39%, how many people were very familiar and could explain what it was?
00:05:24.960 It's 7.
00:05:26.900 7% of people can explain what Bill C-9 is.
00:05:31.720 They're familiar with it and can explain that piece of legislation.
00:05:34.580 And naturally, that means around, rounding up, 33% of people were not familiar enough to actually
00:05:42.620 be able to explain it.
00:05:43.380 They vaguely knew what it was, but that's really it.
00:05:46.760 That's not fantastic considering this is his fallback piece of legislation.
00:05:51.540 When things start going badly on the trade front, he's going to say, well, I passed Bill C-5,
00:05:58.480 the Major Projects Act, or whatever.
00:06:00.420 I always call it the Get Stuff Done Act because it's really just basically saying,
00:06:04.240 I'm passing a piece of legislation saying I'm going to get stuff done.
00:06:07.480 And by the way, he's not going to get stuff done with it.
00:06:10.160 And people being familiar with what it is doesn't mean they're liberals and they like it.
00:06:14.140 It could be like me.
00:06:15.400 I'm a conservative.
00:06:16.320 I know what it is.
00:06:17.200 I generally know what it's trying to do, but it's not actually going to accomplish anything
00:06:21.340 because Mark Carney has already run away from those promises saying that, well, I'm not
00:06:26.300 actually going to step all over indigenous consultations processes.
00:06:30.020 I'm going to let those play out.
00:06:31.820 Don't worry.
00:06:32.440 We're still going to hold up all the environmental laws and we're going to do proper inspections
00:06:37.560 and consultations with environmental groups, which means nothing's going to get done because
00:06:41.280 the problem right now is not whether or not the prime minister says yes.
00:06:44.620 The problem is, does he say yes, but because the but is, well, these groups say no, so we
00:06:51.020 can't do it.
00:06:51.480 I'm saying yes, but they're saying no, or they're saying yes, but you also have to go
00:06:56.500 through three years consultation, which means a lot of companies are going to pull out because
00:07:00.440 they're not going to waste capital in which along the way over three years, someone might
00:07:05.100 say no.
00:07:05.700 That's the problem here.
00:07:07.120 But now let's jump over to the actual party polling.
00:07:10.880 So here we have the federal polling.
00:07:15.060 We currently have in this innovative research poll, the Liberal Party of Canada at 43%, the
00:07:21.020 Conservatives at 38%, and the NDP at 8%.
00:07:24.780 That means the Liberals have effectively lost nothing, maybe like a decimal point or two.
00:07:29.680 If you round up, maybe they've lost one or they've gained one, but they're currently at
00:07:33.120 43%.
00:07:33.760 Conservatives have lost three since the election, and the NDP is up two.
00:07:37.480 So the actual support for the parties has remained fairly rigid, and the NDP have maybe
00:07:43.960 gained some of the blue-collar support back from the Conservatives, or maybe the Conservatives
00:07:47.700 have lost some to the Liberals, and then the Liberals have lost their more progressive left
00:07:51.420 flank back to the NDP.
00:07:53.240 But things are not really in a position where if Carney messes something up, that he has enough
00:07:58.540 of a padded lead on support that he's still safe in an election.
00:08:03.680 I really don't think that's true.
00:08:05.560 If he loses just a couple points over to the NDP because of his cutting of certain areas
00:08:11.540 where there's a lot of public sector employees, he could end up hemorrhaging a few points more
00:08:15.860 to the NDP.
00:08:17.080 A lot of teachers, a lot of nurses who don't like what Carney's doing by moving money from 1.00
00:08:22.900 the public service over to defense could end up defecting over to the NDP.
00:08:28.540 And with the Conservatives, if no trade deal is actually achieved, and a lot of people were
00:08:33.040 voting Liberal because, well, Mark Carney's going to take on Donald Trump and he doesn't
00:08:36.740 do it, well, a lot of people might just go back to voting Conservative.
00:08:40.900 Because people, especially in the age demographic of 60-plus, used to disproportionately vote more
00:08:48.080 Conservative.
00:08:49.040 But then, in this election, because of mainstream media and because of just the priorities of
00:08:54.400 different age brackets, you ended up having people over the age of 55 being more likely to
00:08:59.460 vote Liberal, with people under the age of 40 being far more likely to vote Conservative.
00:09:04.580 So, the demographics that the Liberal Party tends to win, so we're going to do a bit of a
00:09:09.500 clinic on this underneath each of the parties, the Liberals, at least right now in this general
00:09:16.880 political cycle, end up winning women, and they end up winning 60-plus voters, and then 0.98
00:09:24.080 also Eastern Canadians.
00:09:26.740 They win women, 60-plus voters, and the East.
00:09:30.480 Of course, that also means, then, that Conservatives end up winning disproportionately men.
00:09:36.540 They end up winning people under the age of around 45, I would say.
00:09:42.780 So, under 45 people.
00:09:44.920 And they also, obviously, are doing well in the West.
00:09:48.620 Now, let's jump over to the NDP. 0.57
00:09:50.840 Who are the NDP doing really well with?
00:09:53.920 The leader, Don Davies, is better than Jagmeet Singh, I guess you would say.
00:09:59.260 That's not much of a compliment.
00:10:00.920 It's more so saying that he's not actively setting the party on fire.
00:10:05.560 In theory, and it's hard to say this when they're only at 8%, but the NDP are usually
00:10:12.840 good with women still.
00:10:15.100 Under the age, actually, more like under the age of 35 is where their vote is disproportionately.
00:10:22.360 They do not win a lot of middle-aged people.
00:10:24.380 Even 35 is pushing it more like under 30.
00:10:28.420 And their people are urban.
00:10:30.640 It doesn't matter where.
00:10:32.420 They are when urban centers, that's where all of their seats are left. 0.90
00:10:36.520 They lost Nikki Ashton.
00:10:38.140 They lost Charlie Angus's old riding.
00:10:40.580 They lost all of the suburbs.
00:10:42.180 They are now an effectively urban party.
00:10:46.280 Yeah, they have a sort of somewhat rural riding on the island.
00:10:51.100 Vancouver Island's a little bit different.
00:10:52.820 But even if you looked at those areas of the province in British Columbia, the areas that
00:10:58.820 the NDP are winning are still going to be the urban parts of those ridings with some
00:11:03.900 more rural area in them.
00:11:05.300 And so right now, with, and you can even tell from a lot of the moves Carney's making, that
00:11:10.660 he is frightened that the NDP are going to make a comeback and hurt him in the next election.
00:11:14.900 That's why he's recognizing the state of Palestine today rather than signing a trade deal with
00:11:19.440 Trump, because he genuinely probably feels more threatened by urban progressives moving
00:11:24.520 back over to the NDP than he does feel threatened by, I guess you would say, boomer-aged people 0.99
00:11:30.920 who really cared about getting a trade deal signed, because they're going to assume that
00:11:35.840 people will blame Trump for a trade deal not being signed, not the fact that the Liberals
00:11:40.280 just really didn't engage seriously in the trade negotiations.
00:11:44.120 Again, I keep saying this in every video, and I'm going to have to keep doing it so no
00:11:47.540 one takes me out of context.
00:11:49.020 I'm not saying that it's Canada's fault we're being tariffed, although supply management
00:11:53.520 was a tantalizing excuse to tariff Canada, but I'm blaming Canada for not dealing with
00:11:59.360 reality under the Liberals.
00:12:01.080 We should be trying to actually come to an agreement, but right now, with the Liberal
00:12:05.820 Party, we're basically just saying, let's sign a deal, but we're not allowed to touch
00:12:09.560 supply management, and we're not going to do anything that the EU or Japan have been
00:12:13.340 doing in order to get to an agreement.
00:12:15.160 We're not going to, guaranteed, buy any of your energy.
00:12:17.780 We have our own energy.
00:12:18.820 We're not going to buy any more of your cars.
00:12:20.260 But it's just kind of weak.
00:12:23.280 Right now, Canada, rumored that Canada, in the negotiations, is currently trying to convince
00:12:29.580 the Americans to sign a new version of the USMCA trade agreement.
00:12:34.920 Why would you take on that monster of an issue right now?
00:12:38.260 Sign an agreement, at least get as close as you can to a 0% tariff.
00:12:42.480 Convince Trump that, hey, 80% of your trade, you know, 60% of your trade outside your borders
00:12:47.320 is into Canada.
00:12:48.320 You really can't afford to be tariff in Canada, especially if the midterms are coming up.
00:12:52.840 We will get rid of supply management.
00:12:54.840 You will have a small win on that.
00:12:56.340 At least supply management regulations won't apply to the United States.
00:12:59.680 They'll apply to everybody else.
00:13:01.120 You'll get a win.
00:13:02.140 We'll go back down to zero tariffs, and everyone will be happy.
00:13:05.120 And we haven't been doing that.
00:13:06.340 We've been throwing up pie in the sky stuff, or we've just been not even willing to say anything.
00:13:11.020 That's why Trump has been saying there's not much of a negotiation going on, because the
00:13:14.960 liberals have been far too guarded.
00:13:16.280 And what do we have, again, Mark Carney doing?
00:13:19.040 Declaring that Palestine is a real country. 1.00
00:13:23.300 Going and meeting with the premier of Prince Edward Island again.
00:13:28.380 He's going to go back to Northwest Territories again.
00:13:31.700 He's been going on tour after tour and not engaging on the trade issue at all.
00:13:36.620 And so right now, with the polling, and Abacus Data's polling is even worse for the liberals.
00:13:43.300 It's even closer, or it might actually be this far away.
00:13:46.660 But the liberals in this one are leading by five, which is not big.
00:13:50.660 This is a 5% lead with a bleed off to the NDP.
00:13:54.260 Naturally, this is honeymoon polling.
00:13:56.200 This is not fantastic for honeymoon polling.
00:13:58.480 Maybe you could say Nanos is right on the money.
00:14:00.980 They really weren't in the election.
00:14:02.280 Abacus and Innovative were far closer to the actual results.
00:14:06.560 Nanos always had the liberals leading by like six or seven points, which, if it was true, they would have a massive majority right now.
00:14:12.660 They didn't get that.
00:14:13.640 They only won the popular vote by a point and a half.
00:14:16.620 Abacus, I believe, only had the liberals leading by four.
00:14:19.120 And Abacus, as well, is a pollster that only has Carney's approval rating at 52%.
00:14:24.520 And like I discussed earlier in this video, when you look at Mark Carney's approval rating on his job in the direction of the country, it's 56%.
00:14:32.520 And I think a lot of politicians would kill for a 56% rating two years into their term.
00:14:38.200 When it's two months into your term and you have an only 56% rating, that's not fantastic.
00:14:45.000 That's, if anything, kind of mediocre because people naturally are willing to think really nice things about you, especially when we're in this kind of patriotism trap where because people don't like tariffs and they don't like Trump, they're artificially going to say they like Canada more.
00:15:00.060 They like anything that's in Canada more.
00:15:02.540 You know, right now, if Trudeau was still around, he'd have a better approval rating simply because, in many people's minds, it's Trudeau versus Trump.
00:15:10.580 But that's not – and so right now, Carney's in a bubble where things should be more positive artificially.
00:15:16.860 And so if this is his best approval, I could see that if he doesn't sign a deal, he doesn't get a major project done in the next six months.
00:15:23.860 Like there's no new projects announced, Wob Canoo and David Eby are already walking back having ever sort of agreed to anything, you could actually see a lot of people start to fall back into the malaise that, well, this is just another liberal government.
00:15:37.460 Why did we think that this was going to be any better than previous?
00:15:40.980 And so that's why I'm saying right now Carney is in trouble.
00:15:44.100 It's not because he's doing bad in the polls.
00:15:47.520 It's because he's not doing well enough to be weathering the storm that could hit him coming up here.
00:15:52.680 So, yeah, that's really what – I guess that's it for this video.
00:15:58.000 Hopefully, you guys do like the whiteboard segments I'm going to do here.
00:16:01.520 The way I'm doing it is basically I can, like, write stuff down live on camera.
00:16:05.240 And if it's more complex like this, I'll kind of have it pre-written, pause the video, and then I'll restart it once I get it all up to speed.
00:16:12.480 But hopefully, you guys like the visual element of it rather than just me in the tiny box on screen pointing at something I have up on my laptop.
00:16:20.620 This is hopefully a little bit more interesting.
00:16:23.580 So, anyways, with that being said, I will see you guys next time.
00:16:27.480 Make sure to like the video, subscribe to the channel, and leave a comment.
00:16:30.840 It really helps us on the algorithm, and I do like seeing what people are commenting.
00:16:34.760 Anyways, see you guys later.