The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - Carney Liberals' Massive Polling Lead Has COLLAPSED by 61% Since February

00:00:00.040 Ahoy everyone, Wyatt Claypool here, hoping you're all having a fantastic weekend.

00:00:05.500 Today on the whiteboard, we're going to go over a significant polling trend many people have been noticing,

00:00:11.320 that being the Mark Carney liberals seeing a big decline in support over the past few months,

00:00:16.860 despite the legacy media pretending that the Carney liberals are still untouchably popular.

00:00:22.820 Yes, the liberals are still leading in the polls, and sure, Prime Minister Mark Carney has a very high approval rating,

00:00:30.280 although leader approval ratings pretty much mean nothing.

00:00:33.300 Kiripolyev has a significantly negative approval rating,

00:00:36.320 and the conservative polling is currently on the rise.

00:00:38.940 And Carney's approval rating is sky high.

00:00:41.380 At the same time, the Liberal national polling numbers are coming down.

00:00:45.660 I think that he just has a high approval rating

00:00:47.880 because he's kind of boring and unthreatening as a personality.

00:00:51.340 He's not super annoying like Justin Trudeau.

00:00:53.360 So even if you vote for another party other than the Liberals,

00:00:56.600 you see him and you're like,

00:00:57.420 well I could have a cup of tea and a nap with that guy and it would be all right.

00:01:01.740 You know I don't like his policies but he seems to be a good guy. This effectively happened to

00:01:06.620 Jagmeet Singh for most of his career up until about the last two years before the 2025 federal

00:01:13.180 election when people saw him as an obstructionist and propping up Justin Trudeau. Before that he

00:01:18.960 always had an approval rating that was like higher than everybody else's and the NDP always did

00:01:23.620 mediocre in elections. I know they did really, really bad in 2025, but 16% to 17% isn't that

00:01:30.960 great for the NDP. It's just kind of blah or average for them. But Jagmeet Singh's approval

00:01:36.900 rating would have indicated, if you care about that sort of thing, that the NDP should have been

00:01:40.620 getting like 30% in the polls, or they should have actually been doing the best because of

00:01:45.520 how much everyone likes Jagmeet. They didn't. He was just unthreatening. And then he became

00:01:51.120 threatening when he kept propping up the liberals, and then his approval rating tanked. Approval

00:01:55.800 ratings mean jack. And so in this video, I want to take you guys through the overall polling

00:02:02.220 trends that we've been seeing between March of 2026 and June. This is mixing in pretty much all

00:02:08.620 the polls, the good ones and the bad ones, so you can see just how pronounced the liberal fall has

00:02:14.720 been, despite the fact that these averages include polls like Leger and ECOS, who are always extremely

00:02:22.160 pro-liberal. But before we get into the numbers, I just want to remind you guys, if you like the

00:02:26.820 show, make sure to leave a like on the video, subscribe if you are not yet a subscriber,

00:02:31.020 and consider hitting the join button to better support the channel. YouTube is kicking me in

00:02:35.380 the face these days because I can release a video and after an hour, it's only shown it to a couple

00:02:39.860 thousand people, which is like nothing on YouTube. And it's just prioritizing other content and

00:02:44.700 Canadian content being squashed at the moment because of the Liberals Bill C-11. So if you

00:02:50.060 become a member and contribute monthly, it does help me be more sustainable on this channel and

00:02:54.660 less reliant on the YouTube algorithm. But without further ado, we're going to go into the

00:03:00.440 PolyWave averages between late March and June. And then I'm going to go into some of the Angus

00:03:06.340 Reid polls where the decline in liberal support is way more pronounced. And I'm using Angus Reid

00:03:11.780 because it's one of the more accurate pollsters. In fact, it was the most accurate pollster in the

00:03:16.740 2025 federal election. But first, starting off with the March polling from PolyWave. This is

00:03:24.880 the website run by Sharia Teest, who is a great polling projectionist. He showed that the liberals

00:03:30.960 on March 28, 2026 were at 45.8% of the vote, a couple points higher than they ended up getting

00:03:43.840 in the last federal election. They were around 43 point something, rounding up to 44. The

00:03:49.620 conservatives in the poly wave average were only 32.8 percent. The NDP were at 9.4 percent.

00:04:04.780 And then we had the Bloc Quebecois down at 5.9, basically putting them exactly where they were

00:04:14.760 at last election and the greens were at three percent now i shouldn't even have to tell you

00:04:21.880 if this was an actual election outcome the liberals would win like 230 seats this is a 13

00:04:31.000 lead for the for the liberals for the mark carney liberals so we went from a plus 13 lead and now

00:04:40.120 in june the liberals as of june 10th the liberals were at 41 percent in the polls

00:04:50.360 41.3 the conservatives were at 33.4

00:04:59.480 the ndp have shot up to 12.3 percent mostly damaging the liberals of course here the block

00:05:07.800 has also gone up to about 6.7 percent and the Green Party is at 3.4, gaining very slightly.

00:05:21.400 You can kind of tell what the increases and decreases have been here. The Liberals have

00:05:25.560 actually been down 4.5 percent, Conservatives up a little bit, NDP up significantly,

00:05:32.840 the Bloc Quebecois up significantly for them in Quebec right there, and the Greens pretty much

00:05:37.880 holding where they were. But this started out at a 13% lead for the Liberals, and now it's like a

00:05:46.180 6.9% lead. What is this? Yeah, so it would be like 7.9% lead now for the Liberals or so. I might be

00:05:54.940 doing my math wrong there, but it's, you know, around that 7 to 8% range for the Liberals,

00:06:01.540 down from being up 13%, effectively cutting the lead that they once had in half here.

00:06:09.020 Now, this is still a major election victory for the Liberals if they got 41.3 to the 33.4

00:06:16.340 that the Conservatives have. But remember, this is including all of the polls. This is including

00:06:23.180 ECOS that says the Liberals are leading in Alberta. It's including Leger that thinks that

00:06:27.940 the Liberals have a 28% lead in British Columbia. Just absurd numbers across the country from some

00:06:34.480 of these pollsters. So let's look at a far more reasonable pollster and see what they have been

00:06:40.020 showing the Liberals declining from from back in February, that being Angus Reid. I'm just going

00:06:45.420 to clear off the whiteboard here, and then we're going to be jumping in to the Angus Reid numbers.

00:06:51.860 Okay, we're back now, and I'm just going to take you guys through first the February numbers that

00:06:57.420 Angus Reid had and what they currently have as of a couple of days ago in June. And remember,

00:07:03.520 Angus Reid, as I said before, is one of the most accurate pollsters in the country and they use

00:07:09.540 massive sample sizes. This isn't a pollster throwing in like 700 samples across the country

00:07:15.640 and it just happens to be hurting the liberals and raising the conservatives. They pull,

00:07:22.260 like other pollsters will pull a thousand people. They'll pull 3,400 people across the country

00:07:26.920 And that's why they also do these like very, very nice and accurate approval rating polls for each of the premiers, because even PEI, they're getting like 300 people to answer their poll, which is significant for a province with a very low population like they do.

00:07:41.320 So now I'm going to take you guys through what the February numbers were for the Angus Reid poll.

00:07:47.700 Back in February, Angus Reid had the Liberals at 45% of the vote.

00:07:55.140 I'm going to be writing each of the bar graphs, like two of them on each of the party's little acronyms here, and then I'll show you how they've changed over time.

00:08:04.300 So back in February, Liberals at 45%.

00:08:07.660 The Conservatives were falling down to just 32% at the time.

00:08:13.180 Not very good there.

00:08:14.300 NDP was up a little bit from the previous election at 10, but nowhere still close to

00:08:22.840 where they were at in 2019 or 2021. 10% of the vote. We have 10% NDP right here.

00:08:33.360 Forgot to rate 32 for the Conservatives. And the Bloc Québécois were at 7%. We're not going to

00:08:41.920 bother with the greens because it's the greens not to be mean to them but they're just never

00:08:46.860 really that significant they're always at that you know one to three percent of the vote and they

00:08:51.620 really always come in about two or three percent every single election because they concentrate

00:08:55.920 all their support and elizabeth may's riding and a couple others and they win between one and three

00:09:00.380 seats uh the block cup of cloth are still at seven percent as of june i'm starting to get that one

00:09:05.500 out of the way right now they've basically not moved at all but the rest of the parties have

00:09:10.540 seen significant movement. But before we get into how the other parties have changed from February

00:09:15.640 to June, let's just marvel at this lead. Right now, the Liberals in February are at, we can just

00:09:22.840 write this down here, February, we have a Liberal lead of plus 13%. One would call that significant.

00:09:36.360 that would be a lead that would score the liberals like a 230 seat majority if not more

00:09:44.500 basically the conservatives might even get wiped out of calgary with polling numbers like that for

00:09:49.820 them although i'm always kind of skeptical whenever people show like my riding in calgary

00:09:54.960 calgary signal hill going liberal it's an old oil and gas type riding with a lot of guys who moved

00:10:01.400 in the 70s 80s and 90s who were in oil and gas they're probably never going to vote liberal

00:10:05.940 And so I think there's a hard cap on a lot of Calgary ridings of the number of people who are ever going to be willing to vote Liberal.

00:10:12.320 But still, 13%, they would start to dig into downtown Calgary.

00:10:16.540 They would win a lot of Edmonton.

00:10:18.000 They would win pretty much the entire lower mainland and all that.

00:10:22.080 But since then, we have had the polls tighten a bit.

00:10:27.420 The Liberals are still above 40%.

00:10:29.200 They've not started cratering below 40%.

00:10:32.260 That would probably make its own video if they ever started falling below 40%.

00:10:35.680 But they are now at about 41% of the vote here.

00:10:42.540 And the conservatives have risen up to 36% of the vote.

00:10:52.940 I know the numbers, the bars are sometimes a little bit too close to each other based on the numbers, but you understand that I'm just being representative here.

00:11:00.040 The NDP have also had their rise continue from 10% up to 12%, which obviously, again, is mostly hurting the Liberals.

00:11:10.920 And as we can see here, we have had the liberal lead fall from 13% in February, 45 over 32, to now in June being just a lead of 5%.

00:11:31.180 They have literally had their lead fall by more than half, gone from 13 to 5.

00:11:38.080 I believe that's like a 67, 72% decrease in the lead right here. I might be off. I'm not the

00:11:45.300 greatest person at math. But this demonstrates that the recession does matter. The Alto train

00:11:51.760 scandal does matter. Him losing people on his left flank, like Jonathan Wilkinson and Stephen

00:11:57.480 Gilbeau and Nader Skine-Smith, is benefiting the NDP over time. And Quebec voters are not

00:12:05.120 flocking over to the liberals right now. And I believe the next shoe that's going to drop is

00:12:10.020 that the bloc is going to start going up significantly because they don't want the

00:12:14.420 Alto train. The PQ, the Parti Quebecois definitely doesn't want the Alto train and they're currently

00:12:19.400 leading in the polls provincially and they're going to take the government. And so they're

00:12:24.320 losing the climate left green voters to the NDP and to the Green Party. The business liberals who

00:12:31.320 we're getting kind of frustrated about the lack of momentum, are going back towards the

00:12:36.440 conservatives. Conservatives are still down from where they were in the last federal election,

00:12:40.380 but they are still closing that gap quite significantly. It's more so that we're not

00:12:45.540 going to see the two-party system like we were in 2025. 2025 was a borderline two-party system

00:12:54.460 election. I don't think that the parties are going to be nearly as high as they were last election.

00:12:59.460 I think you're going to see a lot of liberals who overpromised how good they were going to be on Trump to the NDP start losing people to them.

00:13:07.440 Now, I'm a conservative, and it always feels weird when I'm describing the liberals messing up and losing these voters,

00:13:13.380 because it's not like I would have held on to them. I'm a conservative. I don't want NDP votes.

00:13:17.480 But from the liberal perspective, they wanted to see if they could marry all these different ideological voters together in one big bloated tent.

00:13:25.400 and the tent is proving to be too large. Two great riding examples are Wilkinson and Gilbeau's

00:13:31.300 ridings, which are going to be, they're going to be resigning from the summer, which it's going to

00:13:35.260 trigger a by-election. Wilkinson in North Vancouver, Capilano, is kind of a strange creature. He is

00:13:42.760 very much, has that kind of businessy, legal type background that a lot of business liberals and

00:13:48.940 moderates like, but at the same time, he is a big green lefty. And that allowed him to eat up a lot

00:13:55.840 of NDP votes in previous elections, turning what used to be a swing riding into a safe liberal

00:14:00.720 riding. Now that he's leaving with the whole kind of cloud of the liberals are betraying the climate

00:14:06.900 going on, that is going to significantly benefit the NDP in the riding. At the same time, Carney,

00:14:13.380 although he keeps talking about a pipeline, is never actually building one and is even walking

00:14:17.960 back some of his reforms when it comes to insane climate regulations, that's going to benefit the

00:14:23.540 conservatives. And then we go to Gilbeau's riding of Laurier something, something, something in the

00:14:28.500 Montreal area. Although that feels like it should be a liberal riding because Montreal is super

00:14:33.480 liberal. Gilbeau is the first liberal to win that riding, I believe, since I think it must have been

00:14:40.220 like 93 when the bloc first came in. Maybe the bloc even won it back then. Maybe Kretzian had it.

00:14:46.280 But before Guilbeault, it was a two-term NDP riding, and before the NDP, it was a multi-term riding for Gilles Deceptre, the Bloc Québécois leader in the early 2000s and early 2010s.

00:14:59.320 That is a riding that could go towards the Bloc.

00:15:03.280 One, it's a very green left riding.

00:15:06.060 So Guilbeault leaving and saying that Carney's not being enough of a climate zealot means a lot of people are going to be going over to the NDP or to the Bloc Québécois.

00:15:15.600 And then Carney decided to kick the Quebec nationalists in the face, and it is a Quebec nationalist leaning riding, by saying that I wouldn't recognize a separatist referendum that was 50% plus one. So they get a majority, a legitimate majority. He wouldn't recognize it because it's not significant enough.

00:15:36.280 Carney thought with those comments a few weeks ago that he was scoring points.

00:15:39.900 He was dunking on all the Alberta separatists who liberal voters hate.

00:15:45.300 He forgot that they require a lot of Quebec voters for the liberals to have their majorities.

00:15:51.640 And so he basically just spat on all the Quebec nationals who, whether they're separatists or not,

00:15:56.960 do not like to hear that if they chose to vote to leave, you wouldn't even recognize it.

00:16:02.560 So in Laurier, I think what we're going to see is the NDP are going to be elevated and the Bloc Québécois are also going to be elevated.

00:16:10.420 And Stephen Gilbeau isn't around anymore to unify the green left and the Quebec nationalists.

00:16:16.160 So the liberals are going to go down significantly and by-elections are kind of horseshoe elections.

00:16:21.800 They're very weird. You know, everything's about right.

00:16:25.520 You know, liberal writings are in conservative writings when they go to by-elections are, you know, generally the way they vote in federal elections.

00:16:31.880 But based on the mood of the country, there could be wild swings in by-elections depending on who's motivated to show up and who's not.

00:16:39.160 Overall, just to wrap things up, what we are seeing is significant declines for the Liberals, 4% in Angus Reid, 4.5% just in all the polls wrapped together.

00:16:49.680 Conservatives are up 4 points with Angus Reid, about a point with just the national pollsters, but again, those are all very anti-conservative right now.

00:16:58.040 Now, not like they're trying to be, just their samples tend to be very non-conservative.

00:17:02.820 NDP is rising, and the Bloc Quebecois is holding steady.

00:17:07.020 And what this is also going to be doing to the Liberals is where the NDP are going to be gaining their vote back first are the traditional NDP areas.

00:17:16.880 Which means that it's not like this rise in the NDP support is going to be spread across the country.

00:17:22.320 They're not going to be getting a bunch of NDP votes in rural Saskatchewan or rural Alberta.

00:17:27.300 They're going to be getting it in the lower mainland on the island, in Montreal, in the GTA, in Hamilton.

00:17:33.980 And this is going to mostly, as we can see by the decline, mainly hurting the Liberal Party.

00:17:40.700 The Greens also, I wanted to just quickly check in on how they had changed just in case I'm missing something here.

00:17:46.780 The Greens from back in February have effectively not changed.

00:17:50.360 and so I think really what's happened here is just the number of undecided voters has heavily

00:17:56.220 increased at the moment. By the way, this, if you care about the approval ratings, this Angus Reid

00:18:03.120 poll shows that pure Polyev has a 60% negative rating, 33% positive. He is significantly 0.84

00:18:08.700 underwater, and yet the conservatives are going up, and while Carney's approval rating has fallen

00:18:14.600 a bit and disapproval has arisen saying it's like 55 to 39 notice how it doesn't matter leader

00:18:21.080 approval ratings have never mattered because if you like a guy you're not going to vote for him

00:18:26.920 if you think his policy sucks and i think that's effectively what happens carney seems like a nice

00:18:31.480 boy to many people same time you don't really you're not seeing anything improved so why bother 0.78

00:18:37.320 voting for him just because he ends up sending you a check in the mail for your groceries

00:18:41.320 doesn't mean you're going to like the liberals, especially because it's not like anyone who's

00:18:45.700 struggling so much where they rely on government benefits at the grocery store. They're not going

00:18:51.720 to be the type of people that if you send them benefits are going to love you. That's been going

00:18:55.480 on forever. If anything, they don't want to be struggling. They're not going to vote for the

00:18:59.600 party that's helping them struggle a little bit less. Anyways, with all that being said,

00:19:05.040 thank you guys for watching. Make sure to like, share, subscribe, consider hitting the join

00:19:10.000 button and becoming a member and also if you are in the Kelowna Okanagan area on the 14th tomorrow

00:19:16.380 in the evening I'm going to be at a 1BC event with Dallas Brody in Kelowna so make sure you sign up

00:19:23.540 and register for that if you want to show up say hi to me say hi to Dallas and the rest of the 1BC

00:19:27.640 team it should be a fun town hall and I hope to see you there but with all that said thank you

00:19:32.480 guys for watching and I'll see you all later

The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - June 13, 2026

Carney Liberals' Massive Polling Lead Has COLLAPSED by 61% Since February

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