Carney Liberals now projected to LOSE next election!
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Summary
Wyatt Claypool breaks down the latest polling numbers and why the Liberals should be panicking right now. The Tories are gaining ground in the polls, and the Liberals are nowhere near as strong as they were a few months ago.
Transcript
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Ahoy everyone, Wyatt Claypool here, back yet again to paint you a picture of what Canadian
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politics looks like right now through the polling. It's been a big week. A great week
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if you're Conservative Party leader Pierre Polyev, and a particularly bad week if you're
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Mark Carney and the Liberal government. I've said this before and I will keep repeating
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it. It is very easy to maintain popularity in your first year as the government, whether
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it's your first time in government or it's a third or fourth term. Naturally, after you
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win an election, unless it was super close and you only have two seats over the next party
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down, typically people are going to think positive things about you because, you know, give them
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a chance. It's kind of that effect that takes place right after the election. People are
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willing to think that maybe you have it together and that we can have, you know, a peaceful
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political moment with you, you know, getting some stuff done. The Liberals have not gotten
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really anything done. In fact, they keep completely flubbing on policy. Either it's a failure of
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their own or the Conservatives entrap them into doing something stupid like today. They put
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forward a bill to repeal a lot of the soft on crime legislation and the Liberals rejected
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it, which is not going to look very good. The Conservatives already dominate the issue
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of crime and the Liberals just gave it fully to them. But I want to break down what the
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numbers currently look like and why the Liberals should be panicking right now. So in the past,
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I've talked about abacus data or innovative research or Angus Reid showing that the Conservatives
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are either getting really close to Liberals in the polls or outpacing them. That is a big
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switch from what we saw from all the pollsters a few months ago. But one pollster that was always
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friendly to the Liberals was Nanos. It's not that they are rigging polls so that the Liberals look
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better. It's just that the way they do their methodology and their sampling tends to lean
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more liberal than probably what reality is. But even they are now showing that if an election was held
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today, based on Sherea T's model on X, who is a great election projectionist, the Conservatives would
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win the most seats. So the Liberal pollster, the one that is friendly to the Liberals, but still
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decently realistic, I don't care what Ecos says. Ecos is just on another planet. They'll show like the
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Liberals leading by 20 points and then the next week they're down to only like five or seven or whatever.
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It's just a useless pollster. But Nanos, three months ago, in July and June, were showing the
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Liberals leading by 14 points. And I made a video the other day to show that they're down to only a
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five-point lead. That was a big deal. It was worth me making a video. They are not even that high
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anymore. They are collapsing in their best pollster's numbers. Check this out. This is Sherea T's posting
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the results. It shows the new Nanos poll has the Liberals only at 39.1%, Conservatives at 37.9%,
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NDP at 11.5%, Block at 6.2%, Greens at 4%, and PPC at 0.9%. Sorry guys, the PPC is not coming back.
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By the way, Nanos as well as Main Street Research were the two pollsters that picked up on how bad
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the NDP were going to do in the last election first. I didn't even believe it when I saw it,
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when they were showing the NDP was only going to get maybe five or six or seven percent week to week
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as they were rolling their numbers out. I thought that was like absurd. How could a party possibly
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go from 18 to six when they're going to run a candidate in every riding? That seems impossible,
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no matter how unpopular the NDP is. You think more incumbents would be able to hold on?
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And no, they were that unpopular. But now Nanos is showing them bouncing back pretty quickly or
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pretty fast now. They're down a little bit from the previous week. But overall, since the election,
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Nanos has shown the NDP increasing. But since the last Nanos poll, which is only a few days ago,
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the Liberals have dropped 1.6 points and the Conservatives are up by 1.3. Now, I want to
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bring some other stats on screen in just a second. But this, again, is crazy considering Nanos was the
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pollster saying the Liberals, in fact, could be at 47, 47 percent about, you know, three months ago.
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And now they are losing to the Conservatives. And you may say, but Wyatt, they're still leading the
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Conservatives. They still have, you know, a little less than two points on them. You know,
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it's 39.1 to 37.9. But this is when, is where we go into voter efficiency, your vote efficiency.
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Where are your votes located? And does it get you more seats than the other guys' vote allocation?
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Because the Liberals can run up the score all they want in places like Montreal and downtown Toronto and
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Vancouver. But if the Conservatives are doing really well in the southwest of Ontario,
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or they start doing better in Atlantic Canada, or they start cleaning up a few extra seats in
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Manitoba or the lower mainland or, you know, out on the Vancouver Island, well, they can have a lower
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overall national vote share, but be doing better than the federal Liberals when it comes to the actual
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seat projections. So check out this seat projection by Sheree Attiste. He currently, and he was very close
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to the actual results of the last election. By the way, I believe this guy's only in grade 12, but he
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truly is really good at aggregating polls and putting up projections of what the election should
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look like with these numbers. And a lot of the guys, the Great Canadian Bagel is also really good.
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It's like Sheree Attiste and the Great Canadian Bagel are probably the two best ones, even better than the
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official pollsters themselves at projecting election results. They don't conduct polls themselves.
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exactly what they do is take all the numbers, compile them, put them through their own model
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or algorithm, and then pop out results based on that. And Sheree Attiste is right now showing if an
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election was held today based on the NANOS numbers, Conservatives would win 164 seats, Liberals in 144,
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Block would have 21, NDP 12, and Greens 2. That would be a 20-seat gain for the Conservatives
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and a 25-seat loss for the Liberals. I'm going to take this down for a second, and then I also just
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want to show you just how things have changed over time. But this is nothing to sneeze at. I know we're
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multiple years out from probably having another election, but it still matters. People will say,
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well, there's not going to be an election, so who cares? This may either force Mark Carney to,
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either he's going to get cold feet, in my opinion, and he's just going to kind of lock up and not have
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confidence in himself to do anything, or he's actually going to maybe be forced to adopt more
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Conservative policy in order to try and increase his popularity. Now, I don't actually think that
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will jive very well with his base, but at the very least, it's demonstrating that Canadians want
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actual normal again, not the new normal that the Liberals have been pushing over the last several
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years. But check out how much things have shifted in not very long. Sheree Attiste has what the numbers
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were back on June 20th to now, and how they've changed. So from June 20th to today, the Liberals
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have lost 6.1% in the polls, Conservatives have gained 7.1%, NDP have lost 0.7%, Block have gained 0.1%, Greens have
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gained 1.1%, PPC have dropped 0.6%, and others down about a point. This is very good for Pierre
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Polyev, obviously that doesn't need to be overstated, but it's good to also see that the Canadian public
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is paying attention. Now, Mark Carney himself still has a positive approval rating. I genuinely think that
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a lot of Canadians don't really know enough about the guy, and he's not flamboyantly annoying the way
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Justin Trudeau was. So I could see his government becoming very unpopular, but he kind of always
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remains a little bit above water, because he's too boring to really hate. But Canadians can actually
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say maybe they like Carney as a person, but people are now growing to see, okay, I can like Carney's
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style, but if the policy sucks, I'm going to go vote for the Conservatives, which is great news,
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because frankly, over the last few elections, we've seen a lot of Canadians vote for style
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rather than actual substance. Now, I didn't like Aaron O'Toole, but even then, although I voted PPC
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in that election because of how just liberal O'Toole was, if you were forced to vote between Trudeau and
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O'Toole just on policy, you would have to vote for O'Toole. You should have voted for Andrew Scheer.
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You should have voted for Harper in 2015, and you especially should have been voting for Pierre
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Polyev in 2025. Obviously, you probably all voted for Pierre Polyev in this last election. But so many
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Canadians were voting because of elbows up and because, well, let's stick it to Trump. And like
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we talked about yesterday in the Abacus data poll, we've had Trump and his administration fall from the
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second biggest issue for Canadians down to number five. And I think we are going to keep seeing it drop
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throughout the rest of the year as people kind of realize, yeah, Donald Trump is really not the problem
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with the Canadian economy, with the Canadian, you know, with crime, with drugs, with all the sort of crazy
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social policies the liberals are pushing. The problems we have are the liberals. Trump can exacerbate those
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problems by putting a tariff on us, which I don't like. But at the end of the day, 80% of our problems
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are our own, and people are going to, like, they do not like hearing excuses being made and people
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constantly playing the trump card in order to kick out of all of, you know, the accountability.
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Anyways, so this one didn't want to make this too long of a video. Hopefully, you guys appreciate
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these little polling updates. I'm still at the legislature in Victoria. I will be for the rest of
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the week, and I'm actually going to be in Saskatchewan. Road trip life is annoying.
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Uh, you have to set up in corners of hotel rooms and see if you can make the show look semi-decent.
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Hopefully, my rambling quality is still the same. I wish I had my whiteboard on me.
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Uh, I used to only do polling videos with stuff on screen, and now I can't, I can't do it without
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the whiteboard. It feels weird. I can still do it, but you know, it's not, not really, not the full
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version anymore. But anyways, with that being said, thanks for watching, guys. Make sure to like the video,
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subscribe to the channel, share it with your friends, leave a comment, and I will see you guys all later.