The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - Carney Liberals now projected to LOSE next election!

00:00:00.160 Ahoy everyone, Wyatt Claypool here, back yet again to paint you a picture of what Canadian

00:00:06.420 politics looks like right now through the polling. It's been a big week. A great week

00:00:12.840 if you're Conservative Party leader Pierre Polyev, and a particularly bad week if you're

00:00:18.560 Mark Carney and the Liberal government. I've said this before and I will keep repeating

00:00:23.760 it. It is very easy to maintain popularity in your first year as the government, whether

00:00:30.200 it's your first time in government or it's a third or fourth term. Naturally, after you

00:00:35.960 win an election, unless it was super close and you only have two seats over the next party

00:00:41.380 down, typically people are going to think positive things about you because, you know, give them

00:00:47.180 a chance. It's kind of that effect that takes place right after the election. People are

00:00:52.040 willing to think that maybe you have it together and that we can have, you know, a peaceful

00:00:57.520 political moment with you, you know, getting some stuff done. The Liberals have not gotten

00:01:03.340 really anything done. In fact, they keep completely flubbing on policy. Either it's a failure of

00:01:09.340 their own or the Conservatives entrap them into doing something stupid like today. They put

00:01:14.380 forward a bill to repeal a lot of the soft on crime legislation and the Liberals rejected

00:01:19.340 it, which is not going to look very good. The Conservatives already dominate the issue

00:01:24.400 of crime and the Liberals just gave it fully to them. But I want to break down what the

00:01:29.960 numbers currently look like and why the Liberals should be panicking right now. So in the past,

00:01:36.900 I've talked about abacus data or innovative research or Angus Reid showing that the Conservatives

00:01:43.040 are either getting really close to Liberals in the polls or outpacing them. That is a big

00:01:49.040 switch from what we saw from all the pollsters a few months ago. But one pollster that was always

00:01:54.380 friendly to the Liberals was Nanos. It's not that they are rigging polls so that the Liberals look

00:02:00.140 better. It's just that the way they do their methodology and their sampling tends to lean

00:02:05.260 more liberal than probably what reality is. But even they are now showing that if an election was held

00:02:13.060 today, based on Sherea T's model on X, who is a great election projectionist, the Conservatives would

00:02:19.980 win the most seats. So the Liberal pollster, the one that is friendly to the Liberals, but still

00:02:27.140 decently realistic, I don't care what Ecos says. Ecos is just on another planet. They'll show like the

00:02:33.000 Liberals leading by 20 points and then the next week they're down to only like five or seven or whatever.

00:02:38.260 It's just a useless pollster. But Nanos, three months ago, in July and June, were showing the

00:02:44.980 Liberals leading by 14 points. And I made a video the other day to show that they're down to only a

00:02:50.660 five-point lead. That was a big deal. It was worth me making a video. They are not even that high

00:02:57.340 anymore. They are collapsing in their best pollster's numbers. Check this out. This is Sherea T's posting

00:03:04.660 the results. It shows the new Nanos poll has the Liberals only at 39.1%, Conservatives at 37.9%,

00:03:13.780 NDP at 11.5%, Block at 6.2%, Greens at 4%, and PPC at 0.9%. Sorry guys, the PPC is not coming back.

00:03:23.760 By the way, Nanos as well as Main Street Research were the two pollsters that picked up on how bad

00:03:30.240 the NDP were going to do in the last election first. I didn't even believe it when I saw it,

00:03:35.500 when they were showing the NDP was only going to get maybe five or six or seven percent week to week

00:03:40.780 as they were rolling their numbers out. I thought that was like absurd. How could a party possibly

00:03:45.520 go from 18 to six when they're going to run a candidate in every riding? That seems impossible,

00:03:50.980 no matter how unpopular the NDP is. You think more incumbents would be able to hold on?

00:03:55.300 And no, they were that unpopular. But now Nanos is showing them bouncing back pretty quickly or

00:04:02.540 pretty fast now. They're down a little bit from the previous week. But overall, since the election,

00:04:09.560 Nanos has shown the NDP increasing. But since the last Nanos poll, which is only a few days ago,

00:04:17.180 the Liberals have dropped 1.6 points and the Conservatives are up by 1.3. Now, I want to

00:04:25.180 bring some other stats on screen in just a second. But this, again, is crazy considering Nanos was the

00:04:31.720 pollster saying the Liberals, in fact, could be at 47, 47 percent about, you know, three months ago.

00:04:39.560 And now they are losing to the Conservatives. And you may say, but Wyatt, they're still leading the

00:04:44.900 Conservatives. They still have, you know, a little less than two points on them. You know,

00:04:49.020 it's 39.1 to 37.9. But this is when, is where we go into voter efficiency, your vote efficiency.

00:04:57.660 Where are your votes located? And does it get you more seats than the other guys' vote allocation?

00:05:03.920 Because the Liberals can run up the score all they want in places like Montreal and downtown Toronto and

00:05:09.840 Vancouver. But if the Conservatives are doing really well in the southwest of Ontario,

00:05:14.140 or they start doing better in Atlantic Canada, or they start cleaning up a few extra seats in

00:05:19.780 Manitoba or the lower mainland or, you know, out on the Vancouver Island, well, they can have a lower

00:05:26.340 overall national vote share, but be doing better than the federal Liberals when it comes to the actual

00:05:32.600 seat projections. So check out this seat projection by Sheree Attiste. He currently, and he was very close

00:05:42.200 to the actual results of the last election. By the way, I believe this guy's only in grade 12, but he

00:05:47.680 truly is really good at aggregating polls and putting up projections of what the election should

00:05:52.900 look like with these numbers. And a lot of the guys, the Great Canadian Bagel is also really good.

00:05:59.300 It's like Sheree Attiste and the Great Canadian Bagel are probably the two best ones, even better than the

00:06:04.540 official pollsters themselves at projecting election results. They don't conduct polls themselves.

00:06:09.760 exactly what they do is take all the numbers, compile them, put them through their own model

00:06:15.160 or algorithm, and then pop out results based on that. And Sheree Attiste is right now showing if an

00:06:21.220 election was held today based on the NANOS numbers, Conservatives would win 164 seats, Liberals in 144,

00:06:30.040 Block would have 21, NDP 12, and Greens 2. That would be a 20-seat gain for the Conservatives

00:06:36.140 and a 25-seat loss for the Liberals. I'm going to take this down for a second, and then I also just

00:06:42.520 want to show you just how things have changed over time. But this is nothing to sneeze at. I know we're

00:06:48.900 multiple years out from probably having another election, but it still matters. People will say,

00:06:55.800 well, there's not going to be an election, so who cares? This may either force Mark Carney to,

00:07:01.180 either he's going to get cold feet, in my opinion, and he's just going to kind of lock up and not have

00:07:05.280 confidence in himself to do anything, or he's actually going to maybe be forced to adopt more

00:07:11.300 Conservative policy in order to try and increase his popularity. Now, I don't actually think that

00:07:16.580 will jive very well with his base, but at the very least, it's demonstrating that Canadians want

00:07:22.140 actual normal again, not the new normal that the Liberals have been pushing over the last several

00:07:27.260 years. But check out how much things have shifted in not very long. Sheree Attiste has what the numbers

00:07:35.520 were back on June 20th to now, and how they've changed. So from June 20th to today, the Liberals

00:07:43.480 have lost 6.1% in the polls, Conservatives have gained 7.1%, NDP have lost 0.7%, Block have gained 0.1%, Greens have

00:07:53.220 gained 1.1%, PPC have dropped 0.6%, and others down about a point. This is very good for Pierre

00:08:03.460 Polyev, obviously that doesn't need to be overstated, but it's good to also see that the Canadian public

00:08:09.980 is paying attention. Now, Mark Carney himself still has a positive approval rating. I genuinely think that

00:08:16.720 a lot of Canadians don't really know enough about the guy, and he's not flamboyantly annoying the way

00:08:22.240 Justin Trudeau was. So I could see his government becoming very unpopular, but he kind of always

00:08:28.120 remains a little bit above water, because he's too boring to really hate. But Canadians can actually

00:08:35.020 say maybe they like Carney as a person, but people are now growing to see, okay, I can like Carney's

00:08:41.540 style, but if the policy sucks, I'm going to go vote for the Conservatives, which is great news,

00:08:47.540 because frankly, over the last few elections, we've seen a lot of Canadians vote for style

00:08:52.260 rather than actual substance. Now, I didn't like Aaron O'Toole, but even then, although I voted PPC

00:08:58.580 in that election because of how just liberal O'Toole was, if you were forced to vote between Trudeau and

00:09:05.560 O'Toole just on policy, you would have to vote for O'Toole. You should have voted for Andrew Scheer.

00:09:11.200 You should have voted for Harper in 2015, and you especially should have been voting for Pierre

00:09:16.280 Polyev in 2025. Obviously, you probably all voted for Pierre Polyev in this last election. But so many

00:09:23.100 Canadians were voting because of elbows up and because, well, let's stick it to Trump. And like

00:09:28.120 we talked about yesterday in the Abacus data poll, we've had Trump and his administration fall from the

00:09:35.080 second biggest issue for Canadians down to number five. And I think we are going to keep seeing it drop

00:09:40.180 throughout the rest of the year as people kind of realize, yeah, Donald Trump is really not the problem

00:09:46.100 with the Canadian economy, with the Canadian, you know, with crime, with drugs, with all the sort of crazy

00:09:54.700 social policies the liberals are pushing. The problems we have are the liberals. Trump can exacerbate those

00:10:02.000 problems by putting a tariff on us, which I don't like. But at the end of the day, 80% of our problems

00:10:08.000 are our own, and people are going to, like, they do not like hearing excuses being made and people

00:10:13.360 constantly playing the trump card in order to kick out of all of, you know, the accountability.

00:10:19.800 Anyways, so this one didn't want to make this too long of a video. Hopefully, you guys appreciate

00:10:24.300 these little polling updates. I'm still at the legislature in Victoria. I will be for the rest of

00:10:29.280 the week, and I'm actually going to be in Saskatchewan. Road trip life is annoying.

00:10:34.580 Uh, you have to set up in corners of hotel rooms and see if you can make the show look semi-decent.

00:10:40.480 Hopefully, my rambling quality is still the same. I wish I had my whiteboard on me.

00:10:45.020 Uh, I used to only do polling videos with stuff on screen, and now I can't, I can't do it without

00:10:49.380 the whiteboard. It feels weird. I can still do it, but you know, it's not, not really, not the full

00:10:54.520 version anymore. But anyways, with that being said, thanks for watching, guys. Make sure to like the video,

00:10:59.500 subscribe to the channel, share it with your friends, leave a comment, and I will see you guys all later.

00:11:04.040 Bye.

The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - October 06, 2025

Carney Liberals now projected to LOSE next election!

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