Carney Liberals' ＂Trump＂ card is gone - Polls show Canadians have had enough!
Episode Stats
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Summary
In this episode, Wyatt talks about how the Liberal Party of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is losing ground to the Conservative Party of Canada, and why it may be because Canadians are no longer prioritizing the issues that put the Liberals in office anymore.
Transcript
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Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here. I am back on the road once again here in Victoria working at the
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legislature for the 1BC party, so hopefully you guys are not going to be too annoyed with my sets
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looking like this for a little while in various hotel rooms. I will still have the same quality
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of rambling hopefully, but without the knickknacks behind me and the better lighting. But we do have
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the addition of my co-host, the Keurig machine, sitting next to me while I talk about polling
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stats. And so today I want to walk through the current approval rating issues that Mark Carney
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and his liberal government are having, because they started off very good after the last election.
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A lot of people were willing to give him a chance, and although right now both Carney and the liberal
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government still have a net positive approval rating, things are starting to change quickly.
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More and more Canadians are starting to realize this government really doesn't feel any different
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than Justin Trudeau's liberal government. Naturally, many liberals will say they think this government
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feels new, but really the majority of the population is not buying it at this point. So I want to take
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you guys through a couple of recent statistics that were released by Abacus Data that is demonstrating
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the political environment slipping out of the hands of the liberal party. So first off, I want to show
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you guys these stats right here for the top issues facing Canadians. Now this is a chart from Abacus Data
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where Canadians back in July were picking the top three issues for them. And in this chart, it shows
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at the top 59% rated the rising cost of living as being one of their top three issues, followed behind
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at 43% with Donald Trump and his administration. Now back during the federal election, that was even
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closer to 50%, which was a big problem for the conservative party. The liberals had cornered the
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market on being the anti-Trump party. And even though people were rating that as one of their top three
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issues in reality for a lot of voters, that was their only issue, which really hurt the conservatives.
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But this is in mid-July, still a pretty strong issue for a lot of Canadians. But now I want to take you
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guys to the Abacus Data poll that was just released today, showing the fortunes of the liberals slipping
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away. Canadians do not care about the issues that put the liberals into office anymore. And now the issues
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are mostly siding with the conservatives. We're not going to go over the top-line national numbers,
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but just for your context, this last poll by Abacus Data showed that the conservatives were
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leading nationally by one percent. Basically within the margin of error, they are tied with the liberals,
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but considering again the liberals should still be in a honeymoon period right now, that's fantastic to be
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neck and neck with the liberal party, who really should be about six or seven points up if they
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played their cards right. But now let's look at these numbers that show not only has the rising cost
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of living bumped up a little bit, which is a big, which is a very good issue for Pierre Polly and the
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conservatives now at 62% of Canadians saying it's one of their top three issues. But Trump and his
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administration is not just no longer in second place. It's not in third place. It's not in fourth
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place. It is now in fifth place. It was previously at 43% of people choosing it as one of their top three
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issues. And now it's down to only 33% of Canadians are choosing it as one of their top three issues.
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And I also assume that if you were to dig into the stats more and do more of a qualitative survey of
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asking people why it slipped away, it's probably also become less of an intense issue for even
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those people who are still even ranking it in the top three. This is a big deal. Remember, it used to
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be a top two issue for people. It used to be near 50% of people rated it as a top three issue. So it was
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in second place overall and a lot of people were picking it within their top three. To have that fall 10%
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since July is massive. And in reality, since the election has probably fallen more like 20%
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since then. And this isn't where it ends for the Liberals. Not only have the new issues basically all
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been leaning conservatives, all the new top issues are really good issues for Polyev, but even the
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government's approval rating has started to fall. But before we get to that, I just want to look at some
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of these top issues. Rising cost of living, 62%. Health care, 35%. Economy, 35%. Housing affordability
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and accessibility, 34%. Then Trump. Then immigration at 27%. Crime and public safety at 21%. Crime and public
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safety has also been crawling up over time. Because sometimes, you know, if crime isn't directly
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affecting people at the moment, it stops being an issue. You live in a gated community,
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you live in a nice suburb. So typically that issue is only around 13 or 15%. 27% means the headlines are
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really affecting people's sense of safety in this country. But now I need to switch back to the old
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chart so we can see what the government's approval rating used to look like. I think it's the more
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honest chart between Carney's approval rating and the government approval rating. Because, you know,
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if you don't know much about Carney, and I still think a lot of Canadians don't really know that much
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about him or what his agenda is, it's easier to just assume he's a good guy. So this was the approval
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rating of the government up until mid-July. Obviously, you see the intensely high disapproval rating back
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when Justin Trudeau was Prime Minister. But let's zoom in to Carney becomes PM and afterwards. So in mid-July,
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we had the Liberals at 52% positive and only 27% negative, which gives them a very, very good net
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approval rating overall. But now let's jump back to the new stats that were just released today.
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These ones are not nearly as friendly. They are still positive, but considering the overall drop-off,
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it's pretty bad. So now right here you can see Carney becomes Prime Minister. Back, this is back then,
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without him kind of circling on screen right now, you can kind of see it, that giant pile up of 52%,
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where it goes 53, 52, 52, 52. Since then, it's slipped down six points to 46%, and the disapproval has gone
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from 27% to 31%, meaning that there has been, what is that? That's a 10% swing over time.
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Because disapproval is up four, approval is down by six. Usually, people don't go from approval to
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disapproval. What they will do is go from approval to unsure, and then they will go to disapproval if
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things persist over time. Naturally, if you add up 46% and 31%, it doesn't reach 100% because the others
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are undecided or they say, you know, I don't know, you know, neutral, I don't know, something like that.
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But yeah, overall speaking, the thing is that Canadians are starting to realize that the Liberal
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government has not actually changed in the way it does stuff. Another stat that came out of the
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new survey, I don't need to show this on screen, is that only 36% of Canadians actually consider this
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to be a markedly different Liberal government than the one that Justin Trudeau was running.
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So they see only 36% of people see this government as different. Everyone else basically sees this as
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effectively the same. And if you are effectively the same as the guys who used to have this disapproval
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rating, this is more of like a prophecy than it is like just a stat. That is basically saying,
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if only 36% of people think you're different, you are eventually destined to have the disapproval
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and approval ratings swap as they look like they are beginning to. I don't think that this is going
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to slow down over time. Because as bad as Justin Trudeau was, we all have to remember that typically
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speaking, a normal day in politics is kind of boring. Nothing that flashy is going on. What happens
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is the malaise sets in, where everything feels slow. Everything feels sluggish. Nothing really
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good is happening. Maybe nothing horrible is happening, but nothing good is happening. And so
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eventually people want change. And I think that that is on the story arc that we are on again.
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But the Trump issue can't save Carney this time. It's just not available anymore. It is shrinking down,
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and it's not a trick you can pull off twice getting people to freak out about the American.
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But anyways, that should be it for this video, or that should be it for this video for me.
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Sometimes you phrase stuff and it sounds bad. Keurig Machine, do you have anything to say on your way out?
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Wow, he's such a card. Oh, anyways, I will be back probably later in the coming days to break down
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new polling stats. I hear that we have polling coming out for the British Columbia provincial politics
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out tomorrow. That shows a doubling in support for other party, which basically means one BC. And
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also there may be a caucus meeting tomorrow where either John Rustad once again fends off his opponents
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from inside the BC Conservative Party, or he gets thrown out and the BC Conservatives probably pick
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another Liberal to end up being their new leader. But anyways, until next time, you know, stay tuned,
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