Carney LIED about his budget - PBO shows cooked numbers!
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Summary
Jason Jocks, the interim parliamentary budget officer, is doing exactly what he was appointed to do. He's calling out the Liberal government for all the stupid things they're doing, and he's not letting them get away with it.
Transcript
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Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here. It's been absolutely hilarious to watch just how much
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Prime Minister Mark Carney and his Liberal government have lived to regret appointing
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Jason Jocks as the Interim Parliamentary Budget Officer. They're not regretting it because he's
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bad at his job, they're regretting it because he's fantastic at his job. Jason Jocks is like
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an accountant's accountant. He is not letting the Liberal government get away with anything,
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and I assume that they thought if they appointed him as an interim PBO, he would mostly mind his
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manners and not call them out for anything, but he is calling them out for everything. The other day,
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I played a hilarious clip where Liberal MP Vince Gasparro was trying to like reason with Jason
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and say, well, yes, you've said all these things in your report about our spending being unsustainable,
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but isn't it true though that maybe in the medium to long term things will get better
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and it cuts to Jason Jocks on the feed of like the live stream of this committee meeting. He's like,
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well, I use the word unsustainable for a reason and it's, I love how little he pulls punches,
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but now the Liberals want to get rid of him. Now he is interim and there are people out there saying,
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well, this is stupid for the Conservatives to accuse Carney of firing him. He's an interim. He was
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never going to be permanent. The problem is, is that Jason Jocks is supposed to be the interim PBO
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for six months. Could they replace him with a new permanent PBO before then? Sure, but we're about
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to go into the Christmas season. I don't think you're going to appoint a new PBO in the middle of
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November or December. Typically speaking, there are fixed times when a permanent PBO has their term
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start and their term end. And usually there is an interim or like the fall and the winter. And then
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you appoint the new guy in the spring when a normal human being would want to start the new job.
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But they're trying to get rid of him like way earlier because he won't shut his face full about
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all the stupid things the Liberals are doing. And that's why I find it so fantastic. Before we get
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into his report, I just want to show you this tweet from Pierre Polyev just as a little bit of a table setter
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he says, no wonder Carney wants to fire their parliamentary budget officer. Canada's top budget
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watchdog today published a brutal report exposing how Carney's costly credit card budget cooks the
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books, doubles the deficit, and promises fake savings. Canadians can't afford the cost of Carney.
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And now I'm going to read you part of the PBO report. He has some top line findings we're going
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to go over because naturally we're not going to read page upon page of the PBO's analysis in the full
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report. But what he highlights at the front of his website about this latest release is quite damning
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about how the Liberals have been attempting to spin their budget. He says, quote, budget 2025 projects
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that debt to GDP ratio will stay mostly stable over the next 30 years, says Jason Jocks, interim PBO.
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Quote, this is different from the last three years when fiscal policy provided more flexibility
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to deal with future risks. And then basically he's saying that like we're going to be holding
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debt to GDP stable. But the problem is naturally over time, because our debt to GDP had gone up a lot
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over the past few years, you would want there to be more room in the budget to potentially be able to
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lower that debt to GDP. Right now, the best case scenario is just basically keeping it as is. And our
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current state isn't great right now. We lost our triple A credit rating and we dropped down to a
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double A. And now he says right here, budget 2025 also sets out new fiscal anchors to balance the
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operating budget and make sure the deficit to GDP ratio declines over time. Quote, our analysis shows
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there is only a 7.5% chance the deficit to GDP ratio will fall every year from fiscal year 2026 and
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2027 to fiscal year 2029-2030, Jocks said. Quote, this means government's new anchors is unlikely to
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hold. So even basically Carney is trying to throw a pea into a shot glass across the room. That is the
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current budgetary plan. We are going to be able to just simply maintain the current debt to GDP ratio
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if everything goes perfect. And let's be clear, it's probably not because things come up. And
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naturally, Jason Shocks can take that into account. But even just based on the current foreseeable future,
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it is a 7.5% chance of even working. Going down a little bit further, the PBO also says the
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government's definition of capital investments is too broad. Using the PBO's definition based on
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international practice, capital investments would total 217 billion from fiscal year 2024 to 2025
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to 2029 to 2030. About 94 billion less than the budget, than budget 2025 estimates. Quote,
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to improve transparency, an independent expert group should decide what counts as capital investments
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under the expanded definition. So basically, what Carney had done was proven that based on current
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tax revenues, that at least the operating budget of the government does in fact balance. The deficit
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only applies to those new capital investments that we are making. See, this is the whole lie of we're
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going to spend less and invest more because, hey, look, we're spending less because we can balance the
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current operating budget. Our actual spending on the day to day stuff has, you know, been has been has
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been like kind of reined in. It's more conservative now. And so now we're going to invest more with a
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little bit of debt of a deficit, even though we're running a 70 billion dollar deficit. But now the deficit
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is just our investment. So it's not as bad as just running up deficits based on your health care
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spending or some other things that you must spend money on. Jocks points out that 79, what is it,
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94 billion dollars of the investment, of the capital investments, are in fact really operating budgets
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that have just been relabeled. In fact, the operating budget itself is still causing a massive deficit.
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He literally more than the current deficit because the current deficit is 70 billion dollars. 94 billion
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was misallocated, was miscategorized as being capital spending when it's really operating spending
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because Carney just had to try and fake it. He tried to pretend like he was being more fiscally
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conservative. Yes, guys, I am running a deficit, but it's it's an investment. No, not at all. In fact,
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more than the entire deficit costs is how much he miscategorized probably on purpose. This was not
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a mistake because he's saying based on normal PBO practices, which is based on international
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practices, you would have never labeled this stuff as capital investments. But now I want to move on
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to looking at some more stuff on X. I always like to bookmark a few things to sort of walk us through
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flavor the conversation a little bit. This is why this is one thing I have to address right now.
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There are some people who, again, are criticizing Paulia for saying the liberals are trying to get
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rid of Jason Jocks. It is absolutely true. They want his term to end as interim PBO as fast as human
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possibly as humanly possible. He's only gotten through one third of his term and now he already
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wants the guy gone, even though he should be there for the full six before you go turn over to your
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new permanent parliamentary budget officer for a few years. Rupa Supramania says, why does Paulia
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feel the need to do this when there's plenty to criticize? And she's basically pointing out like,
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oh, well, they're not actually firing him because he's in the interim. But look, they put him on duty
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on September 3rd, 2025 for a six month term. And they're currently trying to get rid of him.
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That's the problem. Yes, they can technically replace him. They are allowed to technically
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replace him early, maybe with the new permanent PBO. But the fact that they are chafing so hard when
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usually the interim is supposed to stick around for the full six months before the next guy takes over
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is telling about what they think about the things that Jason Jocks has been saying. Because this is
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usually a pretty boring position. You don't have a lot of politics surrounding who ends up becoming
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the PBO and when you replace him. It's, you know, you find a guy and his term is going to start in
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six months after the interim is done. No, they're breaking precedent by trying to replace him early.
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But we have a Polly of here going after the liberals very hard when it comes to just fiscal
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irresponsibility. He says, Mark Carney set up an entirely new liberal bureaucracy so he could
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reannounce already approved handpicked projects. To fix it, he needs to just do one thing,
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get his liberal government out of the way. Because he is going after Mark Carney for basically trying
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to pad out his very thin record so far. Naturally, he hasn't been in government very long. But
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Carney thinks there could be an election in the spring. And so he just keeps announcing major
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projects, many of which have been started a long time ago. And he's just pretending to fast track
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them. There's no real way of fast tracking a project that is just already underway. The only thing
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you can fast track a project through is the governmental, like, you know, bureaucratic hoop
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jumping. Most of these projects aren't dealing with that anymore. He's just saying I'm fast tracking
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them. And in this quote right here on the graphic says, what is the is the major product? What use
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is the major projects office when the government keeps selecting proposals that have already been
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approved? As written by John Iveson in his National Post story. And I read the CEO of the major
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projects office saying in a global news story, well, that yeah, part of our, you know, part of the
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consideration of what we fast track is what's close to already being done. You think it would be in
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reverse that you would fast track things that, you know, haven't been started yet. You know, we want to
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fast track something that hasn't had any action for two years. No, they're fast tracking things that are
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like, almost all the way clear. Because Carney wants these things to be, you know, he wants to be at the
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ribbon cutting and pretend he had anything to do with it at all, when he clearly does not.
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But of course, also, Polyev was talking about the new PBO report. And he said right here,
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breaking the budget watchdog gave Carney a 7.5% chance of meeting his own made up fiscal anchors.
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Canadians cannot afford the cost of Carney and his credit card budget. I want to jump down now to this
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report that came out on CTV News that Roman Baber had posted about all of the additional debt that
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Canadians are taking on for much of the nonsensical spending in the budget.
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Today, the federal government outlined its new climate competitiveness strategy as global trade
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upheavals, rapid technological change, and clean energy is reshaping the world economy.
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Sorry, but like, is it? This is what I do not like about the mainstream media in Canada.
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90% of what they say oftentimes is accurate, because it's just the very boring details of
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the story. The 10% where they're wrong is the spin. Green energy is changing the world right now?
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Not really. Not really. Green energy in Canada, as well as the vast majority of the rest of the world,
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is driven by subsidies. It's not exactly like a thriving industry that's reshaping the economy
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unless you think the government injecting money into a very hollow industry counts as how green
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energy is reshaping the economy around the world.
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...and Energy Minister Tim Hodgson announced today the government will invest over a trillion dollars
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over the next five years, driving growth in nuclear, hydro, wind, energy storage,
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and grid infrastructure to make Canada a leader in the low-carbon economy.
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Later in what? And also, of course, they're showing, like, images of forest fires at the same time
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Because there was not, like, there's not, like, a forest fire going on that they were following.
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That wasn't, like, live updates of a report. We're talking about climate change,
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so let's throw the fires on the screen to make whatever the Liberals are doing seem less stupid.
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It's measures that deliver the greatest emissions reductions
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and increases competitiveness at the lowest cost for Canadians.
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What are they talking about competitiveness? Because, as you see, Roman Baber, who's a great
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conservative MP, he points out, Mark Carney's 2025-2026 deficit will cost your family
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$5,400 in additional debt. Meanwhile, Mark Carney cronies will get trillions of dollars in new green scams.
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This is exactly what it is. Are there some green initiatives that are privately funded
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and that would be successful without the government? Sure. I don't begrudge even those people
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for taking a grant. If you are already in the industry in good faith and the government's
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offering you money, I'm not going to slag you for taking it. But so many people in the green energy
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economy are basically just people who know how to get grants. They know how to work the system.
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In fact, they're a lot like Mark Carney. That's what he did when he was the chair of Brookfield
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Asset Management. He's not a financial wizard at all. That's why he's not doing very well as
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prime minister on the fiscal issues at the moment. Because when he was the chair of Brookfield
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Asset Management, he got them a lot of business because he knew how to corner the markets
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on government subsidies, on grants, on tax breaks. It's not because he knew how to start
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very productive businesses and invest in them with Brookfield Asset Management. He just put money
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where the government was also injecting money. And obviously, you couldn't possibly not make
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something that way. As soon as Donald Trump became the president of the United States again,
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in fact, I believe the Net Zero Banking Association or some international banking
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like a partnership group or whatever, it immediately died. You know why? Because Trump cut off a lot of the
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green subsidies. And all of this only worked. All the financing, all the ability to make money on this
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stuff, only worked if the government was injecting money into the system artificially despite the low
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productivity, despite the inefficiency of green energy and a lot of like, you know, electric vehicles
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and batteries and whatnot. It's so dumb. But anyways, that should probably be it for me today, guys.
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Man, I don't actually know it. Know what? Guys, we got to play the clip of Jason Jocks again before we go
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because I've been talking about Jason Jocks, but we have not seen the man on screen himself.
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I have to say, this is so weird. He reminds me, because I watch the show a lot, he reminds me
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of Julian Bashir, or like the brother of Julian Bashir, if he had a brother in that show,
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from Star Trek Deep Space Nine. There's just something about him. I just love just how
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obviously he just knows that the liberals are trying to shape what he's saying here and he
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just does not go along with it. This was from like a month and a half back, but it was fantastic.
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And obviously, you project, so we're on a good fiscal path, or we're on a better fiscal path
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than some of our G7 colleagues. And you project our deficit staying under 2% of GDP
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and debt holding near the low 40% range. Would you agree that these kinds of thresholds
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are really in practice fiscal anchors that signal some discipline?
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I would go back to one of the comments I made at the outset that, like the most important word,
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I love the faces he makes, because like, he must say this stuff because it bubbles through him
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that he must be honest about the numbers. At the same time, his face reads like this,
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you know, I'm like, okay, well, I'm gonna have to hurt Vince Gasparro's feelings here about
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their terrible fiscal management so far. Because Vince Gasparro was like, well, you know,
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the targets we've set ourselves in and of themselves, you could see that that's like a fiscal anchor.
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And it's like, no, we just read the report he released two days ago saying that these are not
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fiscal anchors at all. You have a 7.5% chance of actually meeting your targets, because there's
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nothing actually really preventing the liberals from spending more. There's nothing that's actually
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going to keep the budget from exploding over time with new costs. And overall, they're just
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planning on potentially reducing operating expenses over the next four years. And that's going to
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somehow make everything work in the long run, even though everything that it's kind of complicated.
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But when the liberals say that they're going to be cutting operating expenses by 15% or personnel
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expenses by 15%, that's all phasing in on over such a large period of time, they're never actually going
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to stick to it. In the release this morning was unsustainable. We like it. I don't know, we didn't.
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We didn't choose it carelessly. I've been in the office for 17 years. I was working in the federal
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government putting together budgets for 10 years prior to that. You got to be like, you choose these
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words of prudence and care. And certainly, we don't want to be alarmist. And at the same time,
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like the current path we're on in terms of federal debt as a share of the economy is unsustainable.
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I love that moment as well, when he's just like saying they're like, you know, like,
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you know, I don't know, we're not just throwing words out, we're using the words that we used for
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a reason. And Vince Gasparro is like, they're kind of like trying to cajole him into saying,
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why don't you just say that we're doing at least something correct? And it's like,
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because you're not doing anything correct. That's why he made the report. Anyways, so that should be
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it for me today, guys. Seriously, this time, like, share, subscribe, do all that fantastic stuff. And